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Some of the CON seats that could fall on a 10% swing to the LDs – politicalbetting.com

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  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677
    rpjs said:

    Leon said:

    Brexit really is our English Civil War, all over again (complete with attendant plagues and religious frenzies)

    In that light, we can probably expect - after prolonged agonies - some kind of Restoration of British EU Membership, but much altered, with the Divine Right of the ECJ and the European Commission gone forever from these island shores.

    This would be an equable solution

    No, that would be like the Restoration requiring the monarch to be a figurehead from the get-go. That was not possible because no-one could figure out how to create an executive that could work with Parliamentary supremacy. It took sixty years for a viable solution to that to emerge.

    What will actually happen is much more mundane: a return to the EEA/CU after the next election (which may come sooner than we think if the Tory party does split in the next few months) and then 5-10 years after that a realization that it’s better to be one of the rule makers than a passive rule taker and a full rejoin, including Schengen and the Euro.
    lol, no
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,813

    Leon said:

    Brexit really is our English Civil War, all over again (complete with attendant plagues and religious frenzies)

    In that light, we can probably expect - after prolonged agonies - some kind of Restoration of British EU Membership, but much altered, with the Divine Right of the ECJ and the European Commission gone forever from these island shores.

    This would be an equable solution

    One of things that happened in the aftermath of the civil war was banning Christmas. Maybe Johnson is really Cromwell?
    I know that the Lord Protector remains a deeply controversial figure even to this day, but comparing him to Boris Johnson is surely an insult too far?
  • TimS said:

    They’re really going to do it aren’t they? They’re going to remove Boris Johnson because he’s not right-wing or Brexity enough.

    It’s almost worthy of Momentum.

    The revolution truly does devour its own.

    Try should be the term, plenty will not want one of the 100 rebels as pm
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,813

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Plague Island...

    BREAKING: Germany to class the UK as a virus variant area from Monday, restricting travel from the UK to Germany. It’s been announced tonight by the Robert Koch Institute. More details to come… https://twitter.com/spiegel_eil/status/1472321450111610885

    It might make sense to restrict us now, as we did with southern Africa. Once omicron is in and has a bit of steam from doubling you might as well lift it though.
    It'll be everywhere in short order, restrictions should lift in a week or two.
    Denmark of course is already really bad, as is Holland. France its well seeded. Even if it isn't widespread in Germany, their neighbours have it already.
    I can't see a way that it isn't all over Germany. Neighbouring countries, travel etc.
    Kamski reckoned Germany was 2 weeks behind the UK, Omicron-wise, maybe less


    I reckon "maybe less" is probably right. Everywhere in western Europe is maybe ten days behind the UK at best

    It is far too infectious for it not to be lurking already in the data, ready to explode. Look at the record numbers in NY State today, that's Omicron. Ditto Ireland
    Given they are running testing at 16% of the UK level and of those tests sequencing 12% of the positive outcomes, how the fiddle do they think they have the remotest idea how much Omicron they already have?
    They haven't. Closing the borders to us is simply a near-painless way of being seen to be doing something.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586

    TimS said:

    They’re really going to do it aren’t they? They’re going to remove Boris Johnson because he’s not right-wing or Brexity enough.

    It’s almost worthy of Momentum.

    The revolution truly does devour its own.

    Try should be the term, plenty will not want one of the 100 rebels as pm
    Yebbut, they've only got to get one into the top two, then the party membership gets to choose.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    edited December 2021
    OldBasing said:

    The Conservative Party imploding over Europe during a national public health crisis is the popcorn moment we've all be waiting for.

    With respect they are not imploding over Europe , they are imploding over covid restrictions, increased NI and green taxes

    Frost himself has said in his resignation letter Brexit is secure
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677

    Observer saying that conservative mps will not move against Boris due to the covid crisis and will wait for the May elections

    Not sure how long that will hold

    Not long, if Boris tries to bring in Lockdown 4


    Then it won't be a question of Should he be PM, there will just be enormous resistance to the economic and social damage this entails
  • Endillion said:

    Nadine can't even spell her last name lol

    That's not how WhatsApp works; the mis-spelling will be because whoever leaked the conversation will have her name mis-spelled in their phone.
    Nadine means so little that people can't even spell her name right
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    Brexit really is our English Civil War, all over again (complete with attendant plagues and religious frenzies)

    In that light, we can probably expect - after prolonged agonies - some kind of Restoration of British EU Membership, but much altered, with the Divine Right of the ECJ and the European Commission gone forever from these island shores.

    This would be an equable solution

    One of things that happened in the aftermath of the civil war was banning Christmas. Maybe Johnson is really Cromwell?
    I know that the Lord Protector remains a deeply controversial figure even to this day, but comparing him to Boris Johnson is surely an insult too far?
    True, Cromwell was a good military leader and got a fair few things done during his office, some of which endured or reappeared under later monarchs
  • Leon said:

    Observer saying that conservative mps will not move against Boris due to the covid crisis and will wait for the May elections

    Not sure how long that will hold

    Not long, if Boris tries to bring in Lockdown 4


    Then it won't be a question of Should he be PM, there will just be enormous resistance to the economic and social damage this entails
    The pressure for him to do so is going to be enormous. Every rise in cases, hospitalisations and deaths will be followed by why aren't you following SAGE advice. Sky News report was already we are going to hell in a hand basket, something must be done....
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177

    Endillion said:

    Nadine can't even spell her last name lol

    That's not how WhatsApp works; the mis-spelling will be because whoever leaked the conversation will have her name mis-spelled in their phone.
    Nadine means so little that people can't even spell her name right
    Unlike the leader of the Labour Party, Kier Starmer.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    Might be time to change my avatar


  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586

    Endillion said:

    Nadine can't even spell her last name lol

    That's not how WhatsApp works; the mis-spelling will be because whoever leaked the conversation will have her name mis-spelled in their phone.
    Nadine means so little that people can't even spell her name right
    How dare you suggest that of Doreen Norris!
  • Nadine can't even spell her last name lol

    That's not how WhatsApp works.

    It means the leaker can't spell Dorries.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677
    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Plague Island...

    BREAKING: Germany to class the UK as a virus variant area from Monday, restricting travel from the UK to Germany. It’s been announced tonight by the Robert Koch Institute. More details to come… https://twitter.com/spiegel_eil/status/1472321450111610885

    It might make sense to restrict us now, as we did with southern Africa. Once omicron is in and has a bit of steam from doubling you might as well lift it though.
    It'll be everywhere in short order, restrictions should lift in a week or two.
    Denmark of course is already really bad, as is Holland. France its well seeded. Even if it isn't widespread in Germany, their neighbours have it already.
    I can't see a way that it isn't all over Germany. Neighbouring countries, travel etc.
    Kamski reckoned Germany was 2 weeks behind the UK, Omicron-wise, maybe less


    I reckon "maybe less" is probably right. Everywhere in western Europe is maybe ten days behind the UK at best

    It is far too infectious for it not to be lurking already in the data, ready to explode. Look at the record numbers in NY State today, that's Omicron. Ditto Ireland
    Given they are running testing at 16% of the UK level and of those tests sequencing 12% of the positive outcomes, how the fiddle do they think they have the remotest idea how much Omicron they already have?
    They haven't. Closing the borders to us is simply a near-painless way of being seen to be doing something.
    Indeed. France the same. It was a purely political gesture, against Brexit Britain. If it had been a genuinely medical issue, they would have quarantined Denmark, Norway and probably Holland and Belgium as well. They did not

    By all accounts it was self harming. The huge French ski industry is majorly dependant on the British market in December and Jan. They have lost hundreds of millions, and the losses continue. To what end and for what purpose?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,813

    OldBasing said:

    The Conservative Party imploding over Europe during a national public health crisis is the popcorn moment we've all be waiting for.

    With respect they are not imploding over Europe , they are imploding over covid restrictions, increased NI and green taxes
    I'm not sure that's entirely true. They were imploding over lockdowns, the irreconcilable economic interests of their Northern and Southern voters, and Johnson's general uselessness. From this point forward they'll be imploding over all of those things plus Europe.
  • Nadine can't even spell her last name lol

    That's not how WhatsApp works.

    It means the leaker can't spell Dorries.
    Tory MPs care so little about Nadine that they can't even spell her name right
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    edited December 2021

    Endillion said:

    Nadine can't even spell her last name lol

    That's not how WhatsApp works; the mis-spelling will be because whoever leaked the conversation will have her name mis-spelled in their phone.
    Nadine means so little that people can't even spell her name right
    You are presumably absolutely certain that there are no dyslexic Conservative MPs who could have been responsible?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Plague Island...

    BREAKING: Germany to class the UK as a virus variant area from Monday, restricting travel from the UK to Germany. It’s been announced tonight by the Robert Koch Institute. More details to come… https://twitter.com/spiegel_eil/status/1472321450111610885

    It might make sense to restrict us now, as we did with southern Africa. Once omicron is in and has a bit of steam from doubling you might as well lift it though.
    It'll be everywhere in short order, restrictions should lift in a week or two.
    Denmark of course is already really bad, as is Holland. France its well seeded. Even if it isn't widespread in Germany, their neighbours have it already.
    I can't see a way that it isn't all over Germany. Neighbouring countries, travel etc.
    Kamski reckoned Germany was 2 weeks behind the UK, Omicron-wise, maybe less


    I reckon "maybe less" is probably right. Everywhere in western Europe is maybe ten days behind the UK at best

    It is far too infectious for it not to be lurking already in the data, ready to explode. Look at the record numbers in NY State today, that's Omicron. Ditto Ireland
    Given they are running testing at 16% of the UK level and of those tests sequencing 12% of the positive outcomes, how the fiddle do they think they have the remotest idea how much Omicron they already have?
    They haven't. Closing the borders to us is simply a near-painless way of being seen to be doing something.
    Indeed. France the same. It was a purely political gesture, against Brexit Britain. If it had been a genuinely medical issue, they would have quarantined Denmark, Norway and probably Holland and Belgium as well. They did not

    By all accounts it was self harming. The huge French ski industry is majorly dependant on the British market in December and Jan. They have lost hundreds of millions, and the losses continue. To what end and for what purpose?
    I thought that that was already a problem because of the end of FoM.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,277
    edited December 2021
    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Plague Island...

    BREAKING: Germany to class the UK as a virus variant area from Monday, restricting travel from the UK to Germany. It’s been announced tonight by the Robert Koch Institute. More details to come… https://twitter.com/spiegel_eil/status/1472321450111610885

    It might make sense to restrict us now, as we did with southern Africa. Once omicron is in and has a bit of steam from doubling you might as well lift it though.
    It'll be everywhere in short order, restrictions should lift in a week or two.
    Denmark of course is already really bad, as is Holland. France its well seeded. Even if it isn't widespread in Germany, their neighbours have it already.
    I can't see a way that it isn't all over Germany. Neighbouring countries, travel etc.
    Kamski reckoned Germany was 2 weeks behind the UK, Omicron-wise, maybe less


    I reckon "maybe less" is probably right. Everywhere in western Europe is maybe ten days behind the UK at best

    It is far too infectious for it not to be lurking already in the data, ready to explode. Look at the record numbers in NY State today, that's Omicron. Ditto Ireland
    Given they are running testing at 16% of the UK level and of those tests sequencing 12% of the positive outcomes, how the fiddle do they think they have the remotest idea how much Omicron they already have?
    They haven't. Closing the borders to us is simply a near-painless way of being seen to be doing something.
    Indeed. France the same. It was a purely political gesture, against Brexit Britain. If it had been a genuinely medical issue, they would have quarantined Denmark, Norway and probably Holland and Belgium as well. They did not

    By all accounts it was self harming. The huge French ski industry is majorly dependant on the British market in December and Jan. They have lost hundreds of millions, and the losses continue. To what end and for what purpose?
    They can't close the borders to any of those nations' citizens unless they test positive for Covid as they are in the EU or EEA with free movement unlike the UK. This is just an easy way for the EU to hit post Brexit UK even if the travellers have been vaccinated and given negative tests
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,708

    Endillion said:

    Nadine can't even spell her last name lol

    That's not how WhatsApp works; the mis-spelling will be because whoever leaked the conversation will have her name mis-spelled in their phone.
    Nadine means so little that people can't even spell her name right
    Unlike the leader of the Labour Party, Kier Starmer.
    Named after the Construction Industry giant rather than the founder of the Labour Party.
  • pigeon said:

    OldBasing said:

    The Conservative Party imploding over Europe during a national public health crisis is the popcorn moment we've all be waiting for.

    With respect they are not imploding over Europe , they are imploding over covid restrictions, increased NI and green taxes
    I'm not sure that's entirely true. They were imploding over lockdowns, the irreconcilable economic interests of their Northern and Southern voters, and Johnson's general uselessness. From this point forward they'll be imploding over all of those things plus Europe.
    Exactly. Johnson has capitualted on the Northern Ireland Protocol - a step too far for the loons and their 'Clean Global Brexit'
  • OldBasing said:

    The Conservative Party imploding over Europe during a national public health crisis is the popcorn moment we've all be waiting for.

    With respect they are not imploding over Europe , they are imploding over covid restrictions, increased NI and green taxes

    Frost himself has said in his resignation letter Brexit is secure
    Not sure that Brexit success was in his gift...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    edited December 2021

    Leon said:

    Observer saying that conservative mps will not move against Boris due to the covid crisis and will wait for the May elections

    Not sure how long that will hold

    Not long, if Boris tries to bring in Lockdown 4


    Then it won't be a question of Should he be PM, there will just be enormous resistance to the economic and social damage this entails
    The pressure for him to do so is going to be enormous. Every rise in cases, hospitalisations and deaths will be followed by why aren't you following SAGE advice. Sky News report was already we are going to hell in a hand basket, something must be done....
    Report tonight 50,000 doctors, nurses and staff are already unavailable for Christmas due to covid

    If Boris does act, no matter the civil war in his party, he will be putting the country first

    I will be very interested in whether the lib dems will also be against this time
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428

    Leon said:

    Observer saying that conservative mps will not move against Boris due to the covid crisis and will wait for the May elections

    Not sure how long that will hold

    Not long, if Boris tries to bring in Lockdown 4


    Then it won't be a question of Should he be PM, there will just be enormous resistance to the economic and social damage this entails
    The pressure for him to do so is going to be enormous. Every rise in cases, hospitalisations and deaths will be followed by why aren't you following SAGE advice. Sky News report was already we are going to hell in a hand basket, something must be done....
    Report tonight 50,000 doctors, nurses and staff are already unavailable for Christmas due to covid

    If Boris does act, no matter the civil war in his party, he will be putting the country first

    I will e very interested in whether the lib dems will also against this time
    Ah yes, that old chestnut.
  • dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC - big row in a Tory Whatsapp “Clean Global Brexit” group with over 100 MPs

    It leads leads to removal of Nadine Dorries after she defending the PM … and then Steve Baker declaring “enough is enough”

    Exchanges here:
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1472331053775958016/photo/1

    "The whole point of Brexit is a radical supply side reform."
    They talk of little else in Leigh to be fair.
    Full employment and growing wages in Leigh suggests it's working for them.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Plague Island...

    BREAKING: Germany to class the UK as a virus variant area from Monday, restricting travel from the UK to Germany. It’s been announced tonight by the Robert Koch Institute. More details to come… https://twitter.com/spiegel_eil/status/1472321450111610885

    It might make sense to restrict us now, as we did with southern Africa. Once omicron is in and has a bit of steam from doubling you might as well lift it though.
    It'll be everywhere in short order, restrictions should lift in a week or two.
    Denmark of course is already really bad, as is Holland. France its well seeded. Even if it isn't widespread in Germany, their neighbours have it already.
    I can't see a way that it isn't all over Germany. Neighbouring countries, travel etc.
    Kamski reckoned Germany was 2 weeks behind the UK, Omicron-wise, maybe less


    I reckon "maybe less" is probably right. Everywhere in western Europe is maybe ten days behind the UK at best

    It is far too infectious for it not to be lurking already in the data, ready to explode. Look at the record numbers in NY State today, that's Omicron. Ditto Ireland
    Given they are running testing at 16% of the UK level and of those tests sequencing 12% of the positive outcomes, how the fiddle do they think they have the remotest idea how much Omicron they already have?
    They haven't. Closing the borders to us is simply a near-painless way of being seen to be doing something.
    Indeed. France the same. It was a purely political gesture, against Brexit Britain. If it had been a genuinely medical issue, they would have quarantined Denmark, Norway and probably Holland and Belgium as well. They did not

    By all accounts it was self harming. The huge French ski industry is majorly dependant on the British market in December and Jan. They have lost hundreds of millions, and the losses continue. To what end and for what purpose?
    They can't close the borders to any of those nations' citizens unless they test positive for Covid as they are in the EU or EEA with free movement unlike the UK
    I don’t think so. I believe they can close to Schengen citizens as an emergency measure. I recall in the first wave a lot countries did so with the European Commission reluctantly conceding they could, but complaining about how long they maintained the closures for.
  • OldBasing said:

    The Conservative Party imploding over Europe during a national public health crisis is the popcorn moment we've all be waiting for.

    It sounds like a bonfire party in reverse
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Plague Island...

    BREAKING: Germany to class the UK as a virus variant area from Monday, restricting travel from the UK to Germany. It’s been announced tonight by the Robert Koch Institute. More details to come… https://twitter.com/spiegel_eil/status/1472321450111610885

    It might make sense to restrict us now, as we did with southern Africa. Once omicron is in and has a bit of steam from doubling you might as well lift it though.
    It'll be everywhere in short order, restrictions should lift in a week or two.
    Denmark of course is already really bad, as is Holland. France its well seeded. Even if it isn't widespread in Germany, their neighbours have it already.
    I can't see a way that it isn't all over Germany. Neighbouring countries, travel etc.
    Kamski reckoned Germany was 2 weeks behind the UK, Omicron-wise, maybe less


    I reckon "maybe less" is probably right. Everywhere in western Europe is maybe ten days behind the UK at best

    It is far too infectious for it not to be lurking already in the data, ready to explode. Look at the record numbers in NY State today, that's Omicron. Ditto Ireland
    Given they are running testing at 16% of the UK level and of those tests sequencing 12% of the positive outcomes, how the fiddle do they think they have the remotest idea how much Omicron they already have?
    They haven't. Closing the borders to us is simply a near-painless way of being seen to be doing something.
    Indeed. France the same. It was a purely political gesture, against Brexit Britain. If it had been a genuinely medical issue, they would have quarantined Denmark, Norway and probably Holland and Belgium as well. They did not

    By all accounts it was self harming. The huge French ski industry is majorly dependant on the British market in December and Jan. They have lost hundreds of millions, and the losses continue. To what end and for what purpose?
    They can't close the borders to any of those nations' citizens unless they test positive for Covid as they are in the EU or EEA with free movement unlike the UK. This is just am easy way for the EU to hit post Brexit UK even if the travellers have been vaccinated and given negative tests
    Except that other EU nations ARE acting unilaterally and imposing their own rules on fellow EU nations. eg Italy

    "Italy is tightening its restrictions for all travellers in response to the rising threat of the omicron variant.

    "As of today, 16 December, arrivals from other European Union countries will have to take a COVID test before arriving into the country. Read on for the rules for travellers from non-EU countries.

    "Previously, proof of vaccination, recent recovery or a negative test was sufficient for visitors from the Schengen zone. But now they must begin the testing process before embarking."

    This is Italy deciding for itself. The EU was not consulted and is not happy

    https://www.euronews.com/travel/2021/12/15/italy-travel-restrictions-what-are-the-new-testing-rules-for-eu-and-uk-passengers

    Schengen is in a total mess
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC - big row in a Tory Whatsapp “Clean Global Brexit” group with over 100 MPs

    It leads leads to removal of Nadine Dorries after she defending the PM … and then Steve Baker declaring “enough is enough”

    Exchanges here:
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1472331053775958016/photo/1

    "The whole point of Brexit is a radical supply side reform."
    They talk of little else in Leigh to be fair.
    Full employment and growing wages in Leigh suggests it's working for them.
    Do you have stats for Leigh to back up that claim?
  • Leon said:

    Observer saying that conservative mps will not move against Boris due to the covid crisis and will wait for the May elections

    Not sure how long that will hold

    Not long, if Boris tries to bring in Lockdown 4


    Then it won't be a question of Should he be PM, there will just be enormous resistance to the economic and social damage this entails
    The pressure for him to do so is going to be enormous. Every rise in cases, hospitalisations and deaths will be followed by why aren't you following SAGE advice. Sky News report was already we are going to hell in a hand basket, something must be done....
    Report tonight 50,000 doctors, nurses and staff are already unavailable for Christmas due to covid

    If Boris does act, no matter the civil war in his party, he will be putting the country first

    I will e very interested in whether the lib dems will also against this time
    Ah yes, that old chestnut.
    Where is the chestnut

    It is a simple question
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,661
    Did Steve B say "Go Nads!"?
    ( © GIN1138 )
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    SUNDAY MAIL: Nightmare before Christmas #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1472340188412194816/photo/1
  • https://twitter.com/gabrielmilland/status/1472340084145934338

    I believe the Tory coalition will always fall apart
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428

    Leon said:

    Observer saying that conservative mps will not move against Boris due to the covid crisis and will wait for the May elections

    Not sure how long that will hold

    Not long, if Boris tries to bring in Lockdown 4


    Then it won't be a question of Should he be PM, there will just be enormous resistance to the economic and social damage this entails
    The pressure for him to do so is going to be enormous. Every rise in cases, hospitalisations and deaths will be followed by why aren't you following SAGE advice. Sky News report was already we are going to hell in a hand basket, something must be done....
    Report tonight 50,000 doctors, nurses and staff are already unavailable for Christmas due to covid

    If Boris does act, no matter the civil war in his party, he will be putting the country first

    I will e very interested in whether the lib dems will also against this time
    Ah yes, that old chestnut.
    Where is the chestnut

    It is a simple question
    I can't work Christmas Day because I've been in contact with someone who has Covid. Soz.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,690

    Leon said:

    Observer saying that conservative mps will not move against Boris due to the covid crisis and will wait for the May elections

    Not sure how long that will hold

    Not long, if Boris tries to bring in Lockdown 4


    Then it won't be a question of Should he be PM, there will just be enormous resistance to the economic and social damage this entails
    The pressure for him to do so is going to be enormous. Every rise in cases, hospitalisations and deaths will be followed by why aren't you following SAGE advice. Sky News report was already we are going to hell in a hand basket, something must be done....
    Report tonight 50,000 doctors, nurses and staff are already unavailable for Christmas due to covid

    If Boris does act, no matter the civil war in his party, he will be putting the country first

    I will be very interested in whether the lib dems will also be against this time
    How many of those staff are medically unfit for work and how many just have a positive test result? The solution to labour shortages is pretty clear now. Eliminate the self isolation rules for positive tests. Since everyone is going to catch it anyway.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,503
    No Opinium tonight?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    Nadine can't even spell her last name lol

    That's not how WhatsApp works.

    It means the leaker can't spell Dorries.
    Tory MPs care so little about Nadine that they can't even spell her name right
    Nadine is the leaker, to show how she’s loyal and others aren’t, and changing the spelling is her cunning ruse by way of disguise.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,255
    Does Frosty get a ministerial resignation statement in the Lords in New Year?

    Would it be worth ordering the popcorn in?
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    ConservativeHome is in meltdown too... The comments sections are like a night at the Comedy Store

    Frost was top of their pops of course, second only to Ms Truss in popularity amongst Tory members. Keeper of the flame.
  • HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Plague Island...

    BREAKING: Germany to class the UK as a virus variant area from Monday, restricting travel from the UK to Germany. It’s been announced tonight by the Robert Koch Institute. More details to come… https://twitter.com/spiegel_eil/status/1472321450111610885

    It might make sense to restrict us now, as we did with southern Africa. Once omicron is in and has a bit of steam from doubling you might as well lift it though.
    It'll be everywhere in short order, restrictions should lift in a week or two.
    Denmark of course is already really bad, as is Holland. France its well seeded. Even if it isn't widespread in Germany, their neighbours have it already.
    I can't see a way that it isn't all over Germany. Neighbouring countries, travel etc.
    Kamski reckoned Germany was 2 weeks behind the UK, Omicron-wise, maybe less


    I reckon "maybe less" is probably right. Everywhere in western Europe is maybe ten days behind the UK at best

    It is far too infectious for it not to be lurking already in the data, ready to explode. Look at the record numbers in NY State today, that's Omicron. Ditto Ireland
    Given they are running testing at 16% of the UK level and of those tests sequencing 12% of the positive outcomes, how the fiddle do they think they have the remotest idea how much Omicron they already have?
    They haven't. Closing the borders to us is simply a near-painless way of being seen to be doing something.
    Indeed. France the same. It was a purely political gesture, against Brexit Britain. If it had been a genuinely medical issue, they would have quarantined Denmark, Norway and probably Holland and Belgium as well. They did not

    By all accounts it was self harming. The huge French ski industry is majorly dependant on the British market in December and Jan. They have lost hundreds of millions, and the losses continue. To what end and for what purpose?
    They can't close the borders to any of those nations' citizens unless they test positive for Covid as they are in the EU or EEA with free movement unlike the UK. This is just an easy way for the EU to hit post Brexit UK even if the travellers have been vaccinated and given negative tests
    France is hitting itself economically with these measures

    Macron will not be flavour of the month in the French ski resorts

    When my son was a professional snowboarder he spent the winter in France and the summer in Canada
  • dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC - big row in a Tory Whatsapp “Clean Global Brexit” group with over 100 MPs

    It leads leads to removal of Nadine Dorries after she defending the PM … and then Steve Baker declaring “enough is enough”

    Exchanges here:
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1472331053775958016/photo/1

    "The whole point of Brexit is a radical supply side reform."
    They talk of little else in Leigh to be fair.
    Full employment and growing wages in Leigh suggests it's working for them.
    Do you have stats for Leigh to back up that claim?
    Recent media reports suggest all is not well in Leigh...

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/we-like-poor-relations-people-22207493
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720
    edited December 2021

    OldBasing said:

    The Conservative Party imploding over Europe during a national public health crisis is the popcorn moment we've all be waiting for.

    With respect they are not imploding over Europe , they are imploding over covid restrictions, increased NI and green taxes

    Frost himself has said in his resignation letter Brexit is secure
    Green taxes? Don’t make me laugh. One of the most notable absences in the last budget was anything meaningful on net zero.

    We’re not even 1% of the way towards rebalancing our tax system from income towards carbon-intensive consumption. Nor do we do anything material to incentivise clean growth. Not that anyone else in Europe is doing much better.

    Watch this space early next year as we launch a big campaign to focus tax policy on incentives for green and public health investment. Of the sort that several small US states already outcompete us on. Oh and some semblance of strategy on taxation. It’s such a no-brainer that only someone as myopic and financially illiterate as Lord Frost could think the problem is green taxes.

    EDIT: “We” being my firm, not the government.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Observer saying that conservative mps will not move against Boris due to the covid crisis and will wait for the May elections

    Not sure how long that will hold

    Not long, if Boris tries to bring in Lockdown 4


    Then it won't be a question of Should he be PM, there will just be enormous resistance to the economic and social damage this entails
    The pressure for him to do so is going to be enormous. Every rise in cases, hospitalisations and deaths will be followed by why aren't you following SAGE advice. Sky News report was already we are going to hell in a hand basket, something must be done....
    Report tonight 50,000 doctors, nurses and staff are already unavailable for Christmas due to covid

    If Boris does act, no matter the civil war in his party, he will be putting the country first

    I will be very interested in whether the lib dems will also be against this time
    How many of those staff are medically unfit for work and how many just have a positive test result? The solution to labour shortages is pretty clear now. Eliminate the self isolation rules for positive tests. Since everyone is going to catch it anyway.
    Leaving aside whether there is any merit to that idea at all, I really don’t think it’d be such a good idea when the people they’d be working with are going to be skewing way to the vulnerable to COVID end.
  • rpjs said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Plague Island...

    BREAKING: Germany to class the UK as a virus variant area from Monday, restricting travel from the UK to Germany. It’s been announced tonight by the Robert Koch Institute. More details to come… https://twitter.com/spiegel_eil/status/1472321450111610885

    It might make sense to restrict us now, as we did with southern Africa. Once omicron is in and has a bit of steam from doubling you might as well lift it though.
    It'll be everywhere in short order, restrictions should lift in a week or two.
    Denmark of course is already really bad, as is Holland. France its well seeded. Even if it isn't widespread in Germany, their neighbours have it already.
    I can't see a way that it isn't all over Germany. Neighbouring countries, travel etc.
    Kamski reckoned Germany was 2 weeks behind the UK, Omicron-wise, maybe less


    I reckon "maybe less" is probably right. Everywhere in western Europe is maybe ten days behind the UK at best

    It is far too infectious for it not to be lurking already in the data, ready to explode. Look at the record numbers in NY State today, that's Omicron. Ditto Ireland
    Given they are running testing at 16% of the UK level and of those tests sequencing 12% of the positive outcomes, how the fiddle do they think they have the remotest idea how much Omicron they already have?
    They haven't. Closing the borders to us is simply a near-painless way of being seen to be doing something.
    Indeed. France the same. It was a purely political gesture, against Brexit Britain. If it had been a genuinely medical issue, they would have quarantined Denmark, Norway and probably Holland and Belgium as well. They did not

    By all accounts it was self harming. The huge French ski industry is majorly dependant on the British market in December and Jan. They have lost hundreds of millions, and the losses continue. To what end and for what purpose?
    They can't close the borders to any of those nations' citizens unless they test positive for Covid as they are in the EU or EEA with free movement unlike the UK
    I don’t think so. I believe they can close to Schengen citizens as an emergency measure. I recall in the first wave a lot countries did so with the European Commission reluctantly conceding they could, but complaining about how long they maintained the closures for.
    It is almost like they have sovereignty.....
    Surely not...

    Philip?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,125

    Leon said:

    Observer saying that conservative mps will not move against Boris due to the covid crisis and will wait for the May elections

    Not sure how long that will hold

    Not long, if Boris tries to bring in Lockdown 4


    Then it won't be a question of Should he be PM, there will just be enormous resistance to the economic and social damage this entails
    The pressure for him to do so is going to be enormous. Every rise in cases, hospitalisations and deaths will be followed by why aren't you following SAGE advice. Sky News report was already we are going to hell in a hand basket, something must be done....
    Report tonight 50,000 doctors, nurses and staff are already unavailable for Christmas due to covid

    If Boris does act, no matter the civil war in his party, he will be putting the country first

    I will e very interested in whether the lib dems will also against this time
    Ah yes, that old chestnut.
    Where is the chestnut

    It is a simple question
    I can't work Christmas Day because I've been in contact with someone who has Covid. Soz.
    Surely if you're a vaccinated contact person you keep working? What are the rules now?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Scott_xP said:

    EXC - big row in a Tory Whatsapp “Clean Global Brexit” group with over 100 MPs

    It leads leads to removal of Nadine Dorries after she defending the PM … and then Steve Baker declaring “enough is enough”

    Exchanges here:
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1472331053775958016/photo/1

    For the first time in my life I feel sorry for Nadine Dorries. What utter shits these Tory MPs are.
  • OldBasing said:

    The Conservative Party imploding over Europe during a national public health crisis is the popcorn moment we've all be waiting for.

    With respect they are not imploding over Europe , they are imploding over covid restrictions, increased NI and green taxes

    Frost himself has said in his resignation letter Brexit is secure
    He was hardly going to say "Dear PM, Brexit is an unsolvable mess. Sorry it did not work" in a public letter.

    Brexit is temporary. The only question is how long that temporary period lasts.
  • No Opinium tonight?

    OMG, At first glance I swore you said "No Opium Tonight?"

    must be time for bed...
  • dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC - big row in a Tory Whatsapp “Clean Global Brexit” group with over 100 MPs

    It leads leads to removal of Nadine Dorries after she defending the PM … and then Steve Baker declaring “enough is enough”

    Exchanges here:
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1472331053775958016/photo/1

    "The whole point of Brexit is a radical supply side reform."
    They talk of little else in Leigh to be fair.
    Full employment and growing wages in Leigh suggests it's working for them.
    Do you have stats for Leigh to back up that claim?
    https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8748/CBP-8748.pdf

    Leigh 4.9% unemployment rate.

    5.0% is traditionally the threshold for "full employment".
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    edited December 2021
    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Observer saying that conservative mps will not move against Boris due to the covid crisis and will wait for the May elections

    Not sure how long that will hold

    Not long, if Boris tries to bring in Lockdown 4


    Then it won't be a question of Should he be PM, there will just be enormous resistance to the economic and social damage this entails
    The pressure for him to do so is going to be enormous. Every rise in cases, hospitalisations and deaths will be followed by why aren't you following SAGE advice. Sky News report was already we are going to hell in a hand basket, something must be done....
    Report tonight 50,000 doctors, nurses and staff are already unavailable for Christmas due to covid

    If Boris does act, no matter the civil war in his party, he will be putting the country first

    I will e very interested in whether the lib dems will also against this time
    Ah yes, that old chestnut.
    Where is the chestnut

    It is a simple question
    I can't work Christmas Day because I've been in contact with someone who has Covid. Soz.
    Surely if you're a vaccinated contact person you keep working? What are the rules now?
    It looks like they re-imposed the isolation requirement then scrapped it a few days later, for NHS staff
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    Exit Lord Frost. Huge loss for Boris Johnson. Big gain for rest of us. Proof that Brexit, the greatest error in recent British history, swallows even its dumbest adherents
    https://twitter.com/MaryRiddell/status/1472316265955999749
  • theProle said:

    Leon said:

    Observer saying that conservative mps will not move against Boris due to the covid crisis and will wait for the May elections

    Not sure how long that will hold

    Not long, if Boris tries to bring in Lockdown 4


    Then it won't be a question of Should he be PM, there will just be enormous resistance to the economic and social damage this entails
    The pressure for him to do so is going to be enormous. Every rise in cases, hospitalisations and deaths will be followed by why aren't you following SAGE advice. Sky News report was already we are going to hell in a hand basket, something must be done....
    Report tonight 50,000 doctors, nurses and staff are already unavailable for Christmas due to covid

    If Boris does act, no matter the civil war in his party, he will be putting the country first

    I will be very interested in whether the lib dems will also be against this time
    The logical act is not to lockdown, but to abolish the self isolation rules. Get covid +ve staff to cover covid wards were possible.
    ^ Absolutely 100% this. ^

    Then abolish self-isolation rules nationwide as the next step.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC - big row in a Tory Whatsapp “Clean Global Brexit” group with over 100 MPs

    It leads leads to removal of Nadine Dorries after she defending the PM … and then Steve Baker declaring “enough is enough”

    Exchanges here:
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1472331053775958016/photo/1

    "The whole point of Brexit is a radical supply side reform."
    They talk of little else in Leigh to be fair.
    Full employment and growing wages in Leigh suggests it's working for them.
    Do you have stats for Leigh to back up that claim?
    https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8748/CBP-8748.pdf

    Leigh 4.9% unemployment rate.

    5.0% is traditionally the threshold for "full employment".
    and wages?
  • OldBasing said:

    The Conservative Party imploding over Europe during a national public health crisis is the popcorn moment we've all be waiting for.

    With respect they are not imploding over Europe , they are imploding over covid restrictions, increased NI and green taxes

    Frost himself has said in his resignation letter Brexit is secure
    He was hardly going to say "Dear PM, Brexit is an unsolvable mess. Sorry it did not work" in a public letter.

    Brexit is temporary. The only question is how long that temporary period lasts.
    Brexit is here to stay though some improvements will not doubt be made, but rejoin certainly not in this decade if ever
  • dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC - big row in a Tory Whatsapp “Clean Global Brexit” group with over 100 MPs

    It leads leads to removal of Nadine Dorries after she defending the PM … and then Steve Baker declaring “enough is enough”

    Exchanges here:
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1472331053775958016/photo/1

    "The whole point of Brexit is a radical supply side reform."
    They talk of little else in Leigh to be fair.
    Full employment and growing wages in Leigh suggests it's working for them.
    Do you have stats for Leigh to back up that claim?
    https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8748/CBP-8748.pdf

    Leigh 4.9% unemployment rate.

    5.0% is traditionally the threshold for "full employment".
    and wages ???

    Leigh is one of the poorest parts of this area, there is zero evidence whatsoever that the population are remotely benefitting from higher pay rises, in fact the opposite the vast majority of them are being hit by high inflation.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC - big row in a Tory Whatsapp “Clean Global Brexit” group with over 100 MPs

    It leads leads to removal of Nadine Dorries after she defending the PM … and then Steve Baker declaring “enough is enough”

    Exchanges here:
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1472331053775958016/photo/1

    "The whole point of Brexit is a radical supply side reform."
    They talk of little else in Leigh to be fair.
    Full employment and growing wages in Leigh suggests it's working for them.
    Do you have stats for Leigh to back up that claim?
    https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8748/CBP-8748.pdf

    Leigh 4.9% unemployment rate.

    5.0% is traditionally the threshold for "full employment".
    Any evidence that is owt to do with post-Brexit supply side reforms?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,813
    edited December 2021
    rpjs said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Observer saying that conservative mps will not move against Boris due to the covid crisis and will wait for the May elections

    Not sure how long that will hold

    Not long, if Boris tries to bring in Lockdown 4


    Then it won't be a question of Should he be PM, there will just be enormous resistance to the economic and social damage this entails
    The pressure for him to do so is going to be enormous. Every rise in cases, hospitalisations and deaths will be followed by why aren't you following SAGE advice. Sky News report was already we are going to hell in a hand basket, something must be done....
    Report tonight 50,000 doctors, nurses and staff are already unavailable for Christmas due to covid

    If Boris does act, no matter the civil war in his party, he will be putting the country first

    I will be very interested in whether the lib dems will also be against this time
    How many of those staff are medically unfit for work and how many just have a positive test result? The solution to labour shortages is pretty clear now. Eliminate the self isolation rules for positive tests. Since everyone is going to catch it anyway.
    Leaving aside whether there is any merit to that idea at all, I really don’t think it’d be such a good idea when the people they’d be working with are going to be skewing way to the vulnerable to COVID end.
    If Omicron takes off on as steep a trajectory as the boffins fear then Government may have no choice but to ditch self-isolation. One thing that would logically be worse than having all those extra Covid plague spreaders stalking the land, regardless of how desperate they are to suppress it, would be a descent into anarchy - because there are so many workers locked in their own homes that there aren't enough left to keep the lights, heating and water on, to stock the supermarket shelves, to police the streets and to treat the sick.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited December 2021

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC - big row in a Tory Whatsapp “Clean Global Brexit” group with over 100 MPs

    It leads leads to removal of Nadine Dorries after she defending the PM … and then Steve Baker declaring “enough is enough”

    Exchanges here:
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1472331053775958016/photo/1

    "The whole point of Brexit is a radical supply side reform."
    They talk of little else in Leigh to be fair.
    Full employment and growing wages in Leigh suggests it's working for them.
    Do you have stats for Leigh to back up that claim?
    https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8748/CBP-8748.pdf

    Leigh 4.9% unemployment rate.

    5.0% is traditionally the threshold for "full employment".
    and wages?
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/placeofworkbyparliamentaryconstituencyashetable9

    8.4% average annual wage growth in Leigh
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC - big row in a Tory Whatsapp “Clean Global Brexit” group with over 100 MPs

    It leads leads to removal of Nadine Dorries after she defending the PM … and then Steve Baker declaring “enough is enough”

    Exchanges here:
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1472331053775958016/photo/1

    "The whole point of Brexit is a radical supply side reform."
    They talk of little else in Leigh to be fair.
    Full employment and growing wages in Leigh suggests it's working for them.
    Do you have stats for Leigh to back up that claim?
    Recent media reports suggest all is not well in Leigh...

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/we-like-poor-relations-people-22207493
    They've been banging on about this for decades.
    The government apparently wants LA units of 400k.
    Except where they don't. Like Leigh and Southport.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    theProle said:

    Leon said:

    Observer saying that conservative mps will not move against Boris due to the covid crisis and will wait for the May elections

    Not sure how long that will hold

    Not long, if Boris tries to bring in Lockdown 4


    Then it won't be a question of Should he be PM, there will just be enormous resistance to the economic and social damage this entails
    The pressure for him to do so is going to be enormous. Every rise in cases, hospitalisations and deaths will be followed by why aren't you following SAGE advice. Sky News report was already we are going to hell in a hand basket, something must be done....
    Report tonight 50,000 doctors, nurses and staff are already unavailable for Christmas due to covid

    If Boris does act, no matter the civil war in his party, he will be putting the country first

    I will be very interested in whether the lib dems will also be against this time
    The logical act is not to lockdown, but to abolish the self isolation rules. Get covid +ve staff to cover covid wards were possible.
    Staff hospitals with sick people? That sounds like a bad idea on multiple levels.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,690
    rpjs said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Observer saying that conservative mps will not move against Boris due to the covid crisis and will wait for the May elections

    Not sure how long that will hold

    Not long, if Boris tries to bring in Lockdown 4


    Then it won't be a question of Should he be PM, there will just be enormous resistance to the economic and social damage this entails
    The pressure for him to do so is going to be enormous. Every rise in cases, hospitalisations and deaths will be followed by why aren't you following SAGE advice. Sky News report was already we are going to hell in a hand basket, something must be done....
    Report tonight 50,000 doctors, nurses and staff are already unavailable for Christmas due to covid

    If Boris does act, no matter the civil war in his party, he will be putting the country first

    I will be very interested in whether the lib dems will also be against this time
    How many of those staff are medically unfit for work and how many just have a positive test result? The solution to labour shortages is pretty clear now. Eliminate the self isolation rules for positive tests. Since everyone is going to catch it anyway.
    Leaving aside whether there is any merit to that idea at all, I really don’t think it’d be such a good idea when the people they’d be working with are going to be skewing way to the vulnerable to COVID end.
    Laughable to think we’ll be able to keep omicron out the general wards when we couldn’t keep far less infectious strain out. The game has moved on. We’re not testing healthcare workers for influenza, whooping cough or norovirus before they can come to work each day. We’re trusting variously in vaccines and sanitation. So what’s the difference with covid, especially given the healthcare worker and patient have all been vaccinated?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    OldBasing said:

    The Conservative Party imploding over Europe during a national public health crisis is the popcorn moment we've all be waiting for.

    With respect they are not imploding over Europe , they are imploding over covid restrictions, increased NI and green taxes

    Frost himself has said in his resignation letter Brexit is secure
    He was hardly going to say "Dear PM, Brexit is an unsolvable mess. Sorry it did not work" in a public letter.

    Brexit is temporary. The only question is how long that temporary period lasts.
    He has however walked off with all the cards we were holding.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080

    No Opinium tonight?

    Opinium is normally every fortnight, so this week is the off week, though with Christmas and New Year perhaps it will be four weeks between polls.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,690
    Endillion said:

    theProle said:

    Leon said:

    Observer saying that conservative mps will not move against Boris due to the covid crisis and will wait for the May elections

    Not sure how long that will hold

    Not long, if Boris tries to bring in Lockdown 4


    Then it won't be a question of Should he be PM, there will just be enormous resistance to the economic and social damage this entails
    The pressure for him to do so is going to be enormous. Every rise in cases, hospitalisations and deaths will be followed by why aren't you following SAGE advice. Sky News report was already we are going to hell in a hand basket, something must be done....
    Report tonight 50,000 doctors, nurses and staff are already unavailable for Christmas due to covid

    If Boris does act, no matter the civil war in his party, he will be putting the country first

    I will be very interested in whether the lib dems will also be against this time
    The logical act is not to lockdown, but to abolish the self isolation rules. Get covid +ve staff to cover covid wards were possible.
    Staff hospitals with sick people? That sounds like a bad idea on multiple levels.
    Sick people don’t go to work. Asymptomatic people do. Should be no different now between covid or any other infectious disease.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    pigeon said:

    rpjs said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Observer saying that conservative mps will not move against Boris due to the covid crisis and will wait for the May elections

    Not sure how long that will hold

    Not long, if Boris tries to bring in Lockdown 4


    Then it won't be a question of Should he be PM, there will just be enormous resistance to the economic and social damage this entails
    The pressure for him to do so is going to be enormous. Every rise in cases, hospitalisations and deaths will be followed by why aren't you following SAGE advice. Sky News report was already we are going to hell in a hand basket, something must be done....
    Report tonight 50,000 doctors, nurses and staff are already unavailable for Christmas due to covid

    If Boris does act, no matter the civil war in his party, he will be putting the country first

    I will be very interested in whether the lib dems will also be against this time
    How many of those staff are medically unfit for work and how many just have a positive test result? The solution to labour shortages is pretty clear now. Eliminate the self isolation rules for positive tests. Since everyone is going to catch it anyway.
    Leaving aside whether there is any merit to that idea at all, I really don’t think it’d be such a good idea when the people they’d be working with are going to be skewing way to the vulnerable to COVID end.
    If Omicron takes off on as steep a trajectory as the boffins fear then Government may have no choice but to ditch self-isolation. One thing that would logically be worse than having all those extra Covid plague spreaders stalking the land, regardless of how desperate they are to suppress it, would be a descent into anarchy - because there are so many workers locked in their own homes that there aren't enough left to keep the lights, heating and water on, to stock the supermarket shelves, to police the streets and to treat the sick.
    But isn’t that what might happen if Omicron’s just allowed to spread un-checked?
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    pigeon said:

    rpjs said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Observer saying that conservative mps will not move against Boris due to the covid crisis and will wait for the May elections

    Not sure how long that will hold

    Not long, if Boris tries to bring in Lockdown 4


    Then it won't be a question of Should he be PM, there will just be enormous resistance to the economic and social damage this entails
    The pressure for him to do so is going to be enormous. Every rise in cases, hospitalisations and deaths will be followed by why aren't you following SAGE advice. Sky News report was already we are going to hell in a hand basket, something must be done....
    Report tonight 50,000 doctors, nurses and staff are already unavailable for Christmas due to covid

    If Boris does act, no matter the civil war in his party, he will be putting the country first

    I will be very interested in whether the lib dems will also be against this time
    How many of those staff are medically unfit for work and how many just have a positive test result? The solution to labour shortages is pretty clear now. Eliminate the self isolation rules for positive tests. Since everyone is going to catch it anyway.
    Leaving aside whether there is any merit to that idea at all, I really don’t think it’d be such a good idea when the people they’d be working with are going to be skewing way to the vulnerable to COVID end.
    If Omicron takes off on as steep a trajectory as the boffins fear then Government may have no choice but to ditch self-isolation. One thing that would logically be worse than having all those extra Covid plague spreaders stalking the land, regardless of how desperate they are to suppress it, would be a descent into anarchy - because there are so many workers locked in their own homes that there aren't enough left to keep the lights, heating and water on, to stock the supermarket shelves, to police the streets and to treat the sick.
    That was always the fear even in the original wave, so you'd hope that someone in Government would have an idea of what to do in that situation.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,690
    Leon said:

    I know Allison Pearson is not everyone's cuppa tea, but she is absolutely right here


    "My friend’s grandson started nursery last week.
    Out of 13 in the class, five have serious speech delay.
    Lockdown toddlers they didn’t see enough faces, they didn’t socialise enough.
    Those tiny children are a silent rebuke to SAGE.
    #nolockdown"


    https://twitter.com/AllisonPearson/status/1472301352911093763?s=20


    I've heard similar from multiple parents

    But Leon. The army of smug wankers here told us we never even had a lockdown in the Uk. And that masks are a simple and harmless measure. And it’s for the greater good to interrupt schooling, didn’t you know that kids in war zones miss school and it does them no harm?

    Enough of this crap. I’m marching on Parliament if they announce another lockdown.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,813
    Leon said:

    I know Allison Pearson is not everyone's cuppa tea, but she is absolutely right here

    "My friend’s grandson started nursery last week.
    Out of 13 in the class, five have serious speech delay.
    Lockdown toddlers they didn’t see enough faces, they didn’t socialise enough.
    Those tiny children are a silent rebuke to SAGE.
    #nolockdown"

    https://twitter.com/AllisonPearson/status/1472301352911093763?s=20

    I've heard similar from multiple parents

    This will only compound existing problems with poor parenting, especially in less affluent areas, that pre-date Covid. Some of these benighted reception class teachers are going to be so busy providing potty training, remedial speech therapy, trying to impart basic social skills and dealing with "challenging" behaviour that they'll have precious little time for anything else.
  • dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC - big row in a Tory Whatsapp “Clean Global Brexit” group with over 100 MPs

    It leads leads to removal of Nadine Dorries after she defending the PM … and then Steve Baker declaring “enough is enough”

    Exchanges here:
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1472331053775958016/photo/1

    "The whole point of Brexit is a radical supply side reform."
    They talk of little else in Leigh to be fair.
    Full employment and growing wages in Leigh suggests it's working for them.
    Do you have stats for Leigh to back up that claim?
    https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8748/CBP-8748.pdf

    Leigh 4.9% unemployment rate.

    5.0% is traditionally the threshold for "full employment".
    and wages?
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/placeofworkbyparliamentaryconstituencyashetable9

    8.4% average annual wage growth in Leigh
    5.2% on median actually based on that data you shared.

    So about level with inflation and well below the richer local places like Sale and Altrincham at 7.4%.

    Well below many other rich areas as well, in fact, zero correlation with Brexitty areas benefitting.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,926

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    rpjs said:

    Oh @Leon, the only person you're fooling with this nonsense that this isn't your third iteration is yourself

    Third? I count at least four including the original.
    Bryonic, eadric, LadyG and now Leon. Have I missed any? 😉
    The original SeanT - so that’s 5.
    I am not any of these people, and yet, weirdly, I did once meet LadyG and Stuart Dickson, in a "dwarf and horse sauna" in Jakarta. Anyone who has been there will know what I mean

    I was there to sell my flints, is my excuse
    And there you go again, you must think we're all morons
    I don't think he thinks *every* other poster is a moron.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677
    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    I know Allison Pearson is not everyone's cuppa tea, but she is absolutely right here


    "My friend’s grandson started nursery last week.
    Out of 13 in the class, five have serious speech delay.
    Lockdown toddlers they didn’t see enough faces, they didn’t socialise enough.
    Those tiny children are a silent rebuke to SAGE.
    #nolockdown"


    https://twitter.com/AllisonPearson/status/1472301352911093763?s=20


    I've heard similar from multiple parents

    But Leon. The army of smug wankers here told us we never even had a lockdown in the Uk. And that masks are a simple and harmless measure. And it’s for the greater good to interrupt schooling, didn’t you know that kids in war zones miss school and it does them no harm?

    Enough of this crap. I’m marching on Parliament if they announce another lockdown.
    If I am told by one more affluent, middle class work-from-home twat with a huge garden and grown up kids that "lockdown really isn't so bad" I will thump then in the ovaries

    Fucking cretins
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC - big row in a Tory Whatsapp “Clean Global Brexit” group with over 100 MPs

    It leads leads to removal of Nadine Dorries after she defending the PM … and then Steve Baker declaring “enough is enough”

    Exchanges here:
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1472331053775958016/photo/1

    "The whole point of Brexit is a radical supply side reform."
    They talk of little else in Leigh to be fair.
    Full employment and growing wages in Leigh suggests it's working for them.
    Do you have stats for Leigh to back up that claim?
    https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8748/CBP-8748.pdf

    Leigh 4.9% unemployment rate.

    5.0% is traditionally the threshold for "full employment".
    and wages?
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/placeofworkbyparliamentaryconstituencyashetable9

    8.4% average annual wage growth in Leigh
    Not sure where you’re looking but I’m seeing 4.5% for Leigh which is of course below inflation, and therefore not wage growth?
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,866

    pigeon said:

    rpjs said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Observer saying that conservative mps will not move against Boris due to the covid crisis and will wait for the May elections

    Not sure how long that will hold

    Not long, if Boris tries to bring in Lockdown 4


    Then it won't be a question of Should he be PM, there will just be enormous resistance to the economic and social damage this entails
    The pressure for him to do so is going to be enormous. Every rise in cases, hospitalisations and deaths will be followed by why aren't you following SAGE advice. Sky News report was already we are going to hell in a hand basket, something must be done....
    Report tonight 50,000 doctors, nurses and staff are already unavailable for Christmas due to covid

    If Boris does act, no matter the civil war in his party, he will be putting the country first

    I will be very interested in whether the lib dems will also be against this time
    How many of those staff are medically unfit for work and how many just have a positive test result? The solution to labour shortages is pretty clear now. Eliminate the self isolation rules for positive tests. Since everyone is going to catch it anyway.
    Leaving aside whether there is any merit to that idea at all, I really don’t think it’d be such a good idea when the people they’d be working with are going to be skewing way to the vulnerable to COVID end.
    If Omicron takes off on as steep a trajectory as the boffins fear then Government may have no choice but to ditch self-isolation. One thing that would logically be worse than having all those extra Covid plague spreaders stalking the land, regardless of how desperate they are to suppress it, would be a descent into anarchy - because there are so many workers locked in their own homes that there aren't enough left to keep the lights, heating and water on, to stock the supermarket shelves, to police the streets and to treat the sick.
    That was always the fear even in the original wave, so you'd hope that someone in Government would have an idea of what to do in that situation.
    We've already seen what happens in the petrol crisis the other month. After a week of dilly dallying they announce they will send in the army, by which time the crisis is almost over and supplies are back to normal.

    But I would not expect the government to take swift action. Could be a couple of very interesting weeks ahead.

    And without wanting to come over all doom and gloom, that's before the Chinese economy effectively shuts down over all this.
  • dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC - big row in a Tory Whatsapp “Clean Global Brexit” group with over 100 MPs

    It leads leads to removal of Nadine Dorries after she defending the PM … and then Steve Baker declaring “enough is enough”

    Exchanges here:
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1472331053775958016/photo/1

    "The whole point of Brexit is a radical supply side reform."
    They talk of little else in Leigh to be fair.
    Full employment and growing wages in Leigh suggests it's working for them.
    Do you have stats for Leigh to back up that claim?
    https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8748/CBP-8748.pdf

    Leigh 4.9% unemployment rate.

    5.0% is traditionally the threshold for "full employment".
    and wages?
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/placeofworkbyparliamentaryconstituencyashetable9

    8.4% average annual wage growth in Leigh
    5.2% on median actually based on that data you shared.

    So about level with inflation and well below the richer local places like Sale and Altrincham at 7.4%.

    Well below many other rich areas as well, in fact, zero correlation with Brexitty areas benefitting.
    Its above inflation on both mean and median measures, and with full employment. So literally what I wrote 'full employment and rising wages' - don't you have the dignity and self-respect to acknowledge I was right?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC - big row in a Tory Whatsapp “Clean Global Brexit” group with over 100 MPs

    It leads leads to removal of Nadine Dorries after she defending the PM … and then Steve Baker declaring “enough is enough”

    Exchanges here:
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1472331053775958016/photo/1

    "The whole point of Brexit is a radical supply side reform."
    They talk of little else in Leigh to be fair.
    Full employment and growing wages in Leigh suggests it's working for them.
    Do you have stats for Leigh to back up that claim?
    https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8748/CBP-8748.pdf

    Leigh 4.9% unemployment rate.

    5.0% is traditionally the threshold for "full employment".
    and wages?
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/placeofworkbyparliamentaryconstituencyashetable9

    8.4% average annual wage growth in Leigh
    5.2% on median actually based on that data you shared.

    So about level with inflation and well below the richer local places like Sale and Altrincham at 7.4%.

    Well below many other rich areas as well, in fact, zero correlation with Brexitty areas benefitting.
    I guess we need to be clear about which data set we’re referring to.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,813

    pigeon said:

    rpjs said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Observer saying that conservative mps will not move against Boris due to the covid crisis and will wait for the May elections

    Not sure how long that will hold

    Not long, if Boris tries to bring in Lockdown 4


    Then it won't be a question of Should he be PM, there will just be enormous resistance to the economic and social damage this entails
    The pressure for him to do so is going to be enormous. Every rise in cases, hospitalisations and deaths will be followed by why aren't you following SAGE advice. Sky News report was already we are going to hell in a hand basket, something must be done....
    Report tonight 50,000 doctors, nurses and staff are already unavailable for Christmas due to covid

    If Boris does act, no matter the civil war in his party, he will be putting the country first

    I will be very interested in whether the lib dems will also be against this time
    How many of those staff are medically unfit for work and how many just have a positive test result? The solution to labour shortages is pretty clear now. Eliminate the self isolation rules for positive tests. Since everyone is going to catch it anyway.
    Leaving aside whether there is any merit to that idea at all, I really don’t think it’d be such a good idea when the people they’d be working with are going to be skewing way to the vulnerable to COVID end.
    If Omicron takes off on as steep a trajectory as the boffins fear then Government may have no choice but to ditch self-isolation. One thing that would logically be worse than having all those extra Covid plague spreaders stalking the land, regardless of how desperate they are to suppress it, would be a descent into anarchy - because there are so many workers locked in their own homes that there aren't enough left to keep the lights, heating and water on, to stock the supermarket shelves, to police the streets and to treat the sick.
    That was always the fear even in the original wave, so you'd hope that someone in Government would have an idea of what to do in that situation.
    I doubt that there's any sort of plan at all. They'll let the pingdemic on steroids run its course and just keep their fingers crossed that enough people still turn up to work at any one time to avert collapse.

    The alternative is to ditch key infection control measures and allow the disease to run completely out of control - and if the hospitals are really, really screaming then ministers won't want to be seen, effectively, to be throwing in the towel and letting them all catch fire unless they're completely out of options.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,314
    edited December 2021
    Leon said:

    I know Allison Pearson is not everyone's cuppa tea, but she is absolutely right here


    "My friend’s grandson started nursery last week.
    Out of 13 in the class, five have serious speech delay.
    Lockdown toddlers they didn’t see enough faces, they didn’t socialise enough.
    Those tiny children are a silent rebuke to SAGE.
    #nolockdown"


    https://twitter.com/AllisonPearson/status/1472301352911093763?s=20


    I've heard similar from multiple parents

    I suspect that's more to do with parents spending all their time gazing at their phones instead of talking to their toddlers. Maybe nothing to do with lockdown. Watch parents on any street, in any park: texting, surfing, posting on PB rather than interacting with their kids. A long-term trend, I fear, of delayed language acquisition.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677
    kyf_100 said:

    pigeon said:

    rpjs said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Observer saying that conservative mps will not move against Boris due to the covid crisis and will wait for the May elections

    Not sure how long that will hold

    Not long, if Boris tries to bring in Lockdown 4


    Then it won't be a question of Should he be PM, there will just be enormous resistance to the economic and social damage this entails
    The pressure for him to do so is going to be enormous. Every rise in cases, hospitalisations and deaths will be followed by why aren't you following SAGE advice. Sky News report was already we are going to hell in a hand basket, something must be done....
    Report tonight 50,000 doctors, nurses and staff are already unavailable for Christmas due to covid

    If Boris does act, no matter the civil war in his party, he will be putting the country first

    I will be very interested in whether the lib dems will also be against this time
    How many of those staff are medically unfit for work and how many just have a positive test result? The solution to labour shortages is pretty clear now. Eliminate the self isolation rules for positive tests. Since everyone is going to catch it anyway.
    Leaving aside whether there is any merit to that idea at all, I really don’t think it’d be such a good idea when the people they’d be working with are going to be skewing way to the vulnerable to COVID end.
    If Omicron takes off on as steep a trajectory as the boffins fear then Government may have no choice but to ditch self-isolation. One thing that would logically be worse than having all those extra Covid plague spreaders stalking the land, regardless of how desperate they are to suppress it, would be a descent into anarchy - because there are so many workers locked in their own homes that there aren't enough left to keep the lights, heating and water on, to stock the supermarket shelves, to police the streets and to treat the sick.
    That was always the fear even in the original wave, so you'd hope that someone in Government would have an idea of what to do in that situation.
    We've already seen what happens in the petrol crisis the other month. After a week of dilly dallying they announce they will send in the army, by which time the crisis is almost over and supplies are back to normal.

    But I would not expect the government to take swift action. Could be a couple of very interesting weeks ahead.

    And without wanting to come over all doom and gloom, that's before the Chinese economy effectively shuts down over all this.
    I strongly suspect the government will now act quickly. Surprisingly quickly

    As has been pointed out multiple times, if you are going to lockdown, you do it sooner rather than later. Delaying prolongs the agony

    Close hospitality this week? Then impose the social distancing rules after Xmas?

    Seems logical. I hate it and I despise it, but that would be the logical move, if you believe in this voodoo shit
  • dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC - big row in a Tory Whatsapp “Clean Global Brexit” group with over 100 MPs

    It leads leads to removal of Nadine Dorries after she defending the PM … and then Steve Baker declaring “enough is enough”

    Exchanges here:
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1472331053775958016/photo/1

    "The whole point of Brexit is a radical supply side reform."
    They talk of little else in Leigh to be fair.
    Full employment and growing wages in Leigh suggests it's working for them.
    Do you have stats for Leigh to back up that claim?
    https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8748/CBP-8748.pdf

    Leigh 4.9% unemployment rate.

    5.0% is traditionally the threshold for "full employment".
    and wages?
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/placeofworkbyparliamentaryconstituencyashetable9

    8.4% average annual wage growth in Leigh
    Not sure where you’re looking but I’m seeing 4.5% for Leigh which is of course below inflation, and therefore not wage growth?
    8.4% mean average, 5.2% median average, both are above inflation - and full employment too.


  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677

    Leon said:

    I know Allison Pearson is not everyone's cuppa tea, but she is absolutely right here


    "My friend’s grandson started nursery last week.
    Out of 13 in the class, five have serious speech delay.
    Lockdown toddlers they didn’t see enough faces, they didn’t socialise enough.
    Those tiny children are a silent rebuke to SAGE.
    #nolockdown"


    https://twitter.com/AllisonPearson/status/1472301352911093763?s=20


    I've heard similar from multiple parents

    I suspect that's more to do with parents spending all their time gazing at their phones instead of talking to their toddlers. Maybe nothing to do with lockdown. Watch parents on any street, in any park: texting, surfing, posting on PB rather than interacting with their kids. A long-term trend, I fear, of delayed language acquisition.
    I have personally seen what lockdown and the rest has done to my teenage kids. It is not good

    I have little doubt it is similarly pernicious, if not worse, for infants and toddlers
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    rpjs said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Observer saying that conservative mps will not move against Boris due to the covid crisis and will wait for the May elections

    Not sure how long that will hold

    Not long, if Boris tries to bring in Lockdown 4


    Then it won't be a question of Should he be PM, there will just be enormous resistance to the economic and social damage this entails
    The pressure for him to do so is going to be enormous. Every rise in cases, hospitalisations and deaths will be followed by why aren't you following SAGE advice. Sky News report was already we are going to hell in a hand basket, something must be done....
    Report tonight 50,000 doctors, nurses and staff are already unavailable for Christmas due to covid

    If Boris does act, no matter the civil war in his party, he will be putting the country first

    I will be very interested in whether the lib dems will also be against this time
    How many of those staff are medically unfit for work and how many just have a positive test result? The solution to labour shortages is pretty clear now. Eliminate the self isolation rules for positive tests. Since everyone is going to catch it anyway.
    Leaving aside whether there is any merit to that idea at all, I really don’t think it’d be such a good idea when the people they’d be working with are going to be skewing way to the vulnerable to COVID end.
    If Omicron takes off on as steep a trajectory as the boffins fear then Government may have no choice but to ditch self-isolation. One thing that would logically be worse than having all those extra Covid plague spreaders stalking the land, regardless of how desperate they are to suppress it, would be a descent into anarchy - because there are so many workers locked in their own homes that there aren't enough left to keep the lights, heating and water on, to stock the supermarket shelves, to police the streets and to treat the sick.
    That was always the fear even in the original wave, so you'd hope that someone in Government would have an idea of what to do in that situation.
    I doubt that there's any sort of plan at all. They'll let the pingdemic on steroids run its course and just keep their fingers crossed that enough people still turn up to work at any one time to avert collapse.

    The alternative is to ditch key infection control measures and allow the disease to run completely out of control - and if the hospitals are really, really screaming then ministers won't want to be seen, effectively, to be throwing in the towel and letting them all catch fire unless they're completely out of options.
    You're quite right, so I'll rephrase - the possibility SHOULDN'T come as any sort of surprise as it was always the fear even in the original wave, but whether the shower of shit currently in power have actually got a strategy for that is an entirely different matter.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC - big row in a Tory Whatsapp “Clean Global Brexit” group with over 100 MPs

    It leads leads to removal of Nadine Dorries after she defending the PM … and then Steve Baker declaring “enough is enough”

    Exchanges here:
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1472331053775958016/photo/1

    "The whole point of Brexit is a radical supply side reform."
    They talk of little else in Leigh to be fair.
    Full employment and growing wages in Leigh suggests it's working for them.
    Do you have stats for Leigh to back up that claim?
    https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8748/CBP-8748.pdf

    Leigh 4.9% unemployment rate.

    5.0% is traditionally the threshold for "full employment".
    and wages?
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/placeofworkbyparliamentaryconstituencyashetable9

    8.4% average annual wage growth in Leigh
    Not sure where you’re looking but I’m seeing 4.5% for Leigh which is of course below inflation, and therefore not wage growth?
    8.4% mean average, 5.2% median average, both are above inflation - and full employment too.


    Why are you looking at weekly pay? Annual pay seems to show only a 2% rise, well below inflation
  • IanB2 said:

    OldBasing said:

    The Conservative Party imploding over Europe during a national public health crisis is the popcorn moment we've all be waiting for.

    With respect they are not imploding over Europe , they are imploding over covid restrictions, increased NI and green taxes

    Frost himself has said in his resignation letter Brexit is secure
    He was hardly going to say "Dear PM, Brexit is an unsolvable mess. Sorry it did not work" in a public letter.

    Brexit is temporary. The only question is how long that temporary period lasts.
    He has however walked off with all the cards we were holding.
    That should not take up too much room in his pocket...
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,690
    Is this Lord Frost resignation the tipping point for bojo or tomorrows chip paper?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080
    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    pigeon said:

    rpjs said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Observer saying that conservative mps will not move against Boris due to the covid crisis and will wait for the May elections

    Not sure how long that will hold

    Not long, if Boris tries to bring in Lockdown 4


    Then it won't be a question of Should he be PM, there will just be enormous resistance to the economic and social damage this entails
    The pressure for him to do so is going to be enormous. Every rise in cases, hospitalisations and deaths will be followed by why aren't you following SAGE advice. Sky News report was already we are going to hell in a hand basket, something must be done....
    Report tonight 50,000 doctors, nurses and staff are already unavailable for Christmas due to covid

    If Boris does act, no matter the civil war in his party, he will be putting the country first

    I will be very interested in whether the lib dems will also be against this time
    How many of those staff are medically unfit for work and how many just have a positive test result? The solution to labour shortages is pretty clear now. Eliminate the self isolation rules for positive tests. Since everyone is going to catch it anyway.
    Leaving aside whether there is any merit to that idea at all, I really don’t think it’d be such a good idea when the people they’d be working with are going to be skewing way to the vulnerable to COVID end.
    If Omicron takes off on as steep a trajectory as the boffins fear then Government may have no choice but to ditch self-isolation. One thing that would logically be worse than having all those extra Covid plague spreaders stalking the land, regardless of how desperate they are to suppress it, would be a descent into anarchy - because there are so many workers locked in their own homes that there aren't enough left to keep the lights, heating and water on, to stock the supermarket shelves, to police the streets and to treat the sick.
    That was always the fear even in the original wave, so you'd hope that someone in Government would have an idea of what to do in that situation.
    We've already seen what happens in the petrol crisis the other month. After a week of dilly dallying they announce they will send in the army, by which time the crisis is almost over and supplies are back to normal.

    But I would not expect the government to take swift action. Could be a couple of very interesting weeks ahead.

    And without wanting to come over all doom and gloom, that's before the Chinese economy effectively shuts down over all this.
    I strongly suspect the government will now act quickly. Surprisingly quickly

    As has been pointed out multiple times, if you are going to lockdown, you do it sooner rather than later. Delaying prolongs the agony

    Close hospitality this week? Then impose the social distancing rules after Xmas?

    Seems logical. I hate it and I despise it, but that would be the logical move, if you believe in this voodoo shit
    Ifyou believed that lockdown was necessary you would surely have locked down already. Possibly 1% of the population of several London boroughs has been catching Omicron every single day for several days now. The government is whipping up a panic, and then really not doing much in response.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,874

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC - big row in a Tory Whatsapp “Clean Global Brexit” group with over 100 MPs

    It leads leads to removal of Nadine Dorries after she defending the PM … and then Steve Baker declaring “enough is enough”

    Exchanges here:
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1472331053775958016/photo/1

    Odd that after several critical posts, Dorries sticks up for the clown and that alone is sufficient for Baker to banish her.
    I'm amazed how much time some Tory MPs have to argue on WhatsApp - there seem to be numerous different lists for different shades of opinion, all packed with people shouting at each other. When do they get any constituency correspondence done?
    Don’t they have family members to deal with their correspondence? On expenses?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,277
    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    pigeon said:

    rpjs said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Observer saying that conservative mps will not move against Boris due to the covid crisis and will wait for the May elections

    Not sure how long that will hold

    Not long, if Boris tries to bring in Lockdown 4


    Then it won't be a question of Should he be PM, there will just be enormous resistance to the economic and social damage this entails
    The pressure for him to do so is going to be enormous. Every rise in cases, hospitalisations and deaths will be followed by why aren't you following SAGE advice. Sky News report was already we are going to hell in a hand basket, something must be done....
    Report tonight 50,000 doctors, nurses and staff are already unavailable for Christmas due to covid

    If Boris does act, no matter the civil war in his party, he will be putting the country first

    I will be very interested in whether the lib dems will also be against this time
    How many of those staff are medically unfit for work and how many just have a positive test result? The solution to labour shortages is pretty clear now. Eliminate the self isolation rules for positive tests. Since everyone is going to catch it anyway.
    Leaving aside whether there is any merit to that idea at all, I really don’t think it’d be such a good idea when the people they’d be working with are going to be skewing way to the vulnerable to COVID end.
    If Omicron takes off on as steep a trajectory as the boffins fear then Government may have no choice but to ditch self-isolation. One thing that would logically be worse than having all those extra Covid plague spreaders stalking the land, regardless of how desperate they are to suppress it, would be a descent into anarchy - because there are so many workers locked in their own homes that there aren't enough left to keep the lights, heating and water on, to stock the supermarket shelves, to police the streets and to treat the sick.
    That was always the fear even in the original wave, so you'd hope that someone in Government would have an idea of what to do in that situation.
    We've already seen what happens in the petrol crisis the other month. After a week of dilly dallying they announce they will send in the army, by which time the crisis is almost over and supplies are back to normal.

    But I would not expect the government to take swift action. Could be a couple of very interesting weeks ahead.

    And without wanting to come over all doom and gloom, that's before the Chinese economy effectively shuts down over all this.
    I strongly suspect the government will now act quickly. Surprisingly quickly

    As has been pointed out multiple times, if you are going to lockdown, you do it sooner rather than later. Delaying prolongs the agony

    Close hospitality this week? Then impose the social distancing rules after Xmas?

    Seems logical. I hate it and I despise it, but that would be the logical move, if you believe in this voodoo shit
    Close hospitality this week on one of their busiest weeks of the year would be devastating.

    At most bring in vaxports not a full lockdown
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,314
    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    I know Allison Pearson is not everyone's cuppa tea, but she is absolutely right here

    "My friend’s grandson started nursery last week.
    Out of 13 in the class, five have serious speech delay.
    Lockdown toddlers they didn’t see enough faces, they didn’t socialise enough.
    Those tiny children are a silent rebuke to SAGE.
    #nolockdown"

    https://twitter.com/AllisonPearson/status/1472301352911093763?s=20

    I've heard similar from multiple parents

    This will only compound existing problems with poor parenting, especially in less affluent areas, that pre-date Covid. Some of these benighted reception class teachers are going to be so busy providing potty training, remedial speech therapy, trying to impart basic social skills and dealing with "challenging" behaviour that they'll have precious little time for anything else.
    Nonsense. Children haven't been separated from their parents. Nursery schools, and childminders, have been open virtually throughout. Yes, there's lots of very poor parenting; but that's nothing new, and the Telegraph (which has zero sympathy for the culturally and economically poor) is just trying to use this in its right-wing anti-NPI agenda.
  • Frosty's flounce doesn't bode well for Brexit. No way would he be going if the sunny uplands were in sight. He must think it's going to be either a calamitous mess or a europhile betrayal. Either way it spells deep trouble for Boris.
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