Some of the CON seats that could fall on a 10% swing to the LDs – politicalbetting.com

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Some of the CON seats that could fall on a 10% swing to the LDs – politicalbetting.com

In the previous header Quincel looked at the possibility of the Domonic Raab losing his seat if the LDs do well in the seats where they are competitive.

Read the full story here

FrancisUrquhart

🚨🚨 | BREAKING: One option the government is considering is imposing a time limited circuit breaker, and then the release of restrictions is linked to how many of us get vaccinated

Via @thesundaytimes

Held hostage by thr antivaxxers....that will go down worse than yet another #10 zoom quiz.

MikeSmithson

test

FrancisUrquhart

Best thing to do with the loonies is laugh at them....

https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1472279344940789762?t=yFtm2rBTzs8HgT_xVeOW4Q&s=19

FrancisUrquhart

Turns on Sky News and it is full of end of the world is nigh.

Boris won't be long now until he announces new restrictions.

pigeon

Do the Tories use Johnson as a lightning rod for discontent over restrictions and then dump him when they're gone, or do they also let him take the blame for the local election results and then get rid of him?

Of course, the two possibilities may not be mutually exclusive. The last major battery of restrictions started before Christmas but didn't unwind fully until the following July.

HYUFD

Well never fear, if we do go to another lockdown at least we can speculate on the earth shattering prospect of Cheltenham and Guildford going LD at the next general election to keep us going through the dark nights alone

FrancisUrquhart

solarflare said:

Also, I absolutely hate the phrase "circuit-breaker". It's just such a "made-for-public-consumption" made up bullshit of a phrase.

It is highly misleading as it makes it sound like you can just turn off transmission, when we know it takes a week to even start that happening (as initially you increase household transmission).

Leon

pigeon said:

Do the Tories use Johnson as a lightning rod for discontent over restrictions and then dump him when they're gone, or do they also let him take the blame for the local election results and then get rid of him?

Of course, the two possibilities may not be mutually exclusive. Last year's restrictions dragged on until July.

Hidden in that SAGE advice is a hint that these restrictions will be needed for "winter" - so into March we go

solarflare

FrancisUrquhart said:

solarflare said:

Also, I absolutely hate the phrase "circuit-breaker". It's just such a "made-for-public-consumption" made up bullshit of a phrase.

It is highly misleading as it makes it sound like you can just turn off transmission, when we know it takes a week to even start that happening (as initially you increase household transmission).

Exactly. It sounds like a reset, when in reality it's just more of a pause.

FrancisUrquhart

solarflare said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

solarflare said:

Also, I absolutely hate the phrase "circuit-breaker". It's just such a "made-for-public-consumption" made up bullshit of a phrase.

It is highly misleading as it makes it sound like you can just turn off transmission, when we know it takes a week to even start that happening (as initially you increase household transmission).

Exactly. It sounds like a reset, when in reality it's just more of a pause.

Its not even a pause, it more turning the dimmer switch slowly down, but in two weeks you haven't even turned the light off.

MikeSmithson

HYUFD said:

Well never fear, if we do go to another lockdown at least we can speculate on the earth shattering prospect of Cheltenham and Guildford going LD at the next general election to keep us going through the dark nights alone

If you find that helps you then so be it.

FrancisUrquhart

Leon said:

pigeon said:

Do the Tories use Johnson as a lightning rod for discontent over restrictions and then dump him when they're gone, or do they also let him take the blame for the local election results and then get rid of him?

Of course, the two possibilities may not be mutually exclusive. Last year's restrictions dragged on until July.

Hidden in that SAGE advice is a hint that these restrictions will be needed for "winter" - so into March we go

Given big O is 16x more transmissible, surely it isn't going to take over 3 months to get through society?

Malmesbury

Right.

Vital question - what kind of biscuits for the panic?

We can brew the tea on the engine of @HYUFD's Covenanter - no BV, sadly....

HYUFD

New polling for the Sunday Times finds 60% of voters oppose a ban on households mixing at Christmas and 58% oppose closing pubs and restaurants.
https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1472274950237175819?s=20

However most voters do back negative tests and vaxports for hospitality venues

solarflare

Malmesbury said:

Right.

Vital question - what kind of biscuits for the panic?

We can brew the tea on the engine of @HYUFD's Covenanter - no BV, sadly....

I'll plump for Jammy dodgers, Hobnobs, or a dark chocolate Choco Leibniz.

pigeon

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

pigeon said:

Do the Tories use Johnson as a lightning rod for discontent over restrictions and then dump him when they're gone, or do they also let him take the blame for the local election results and then get rid of him?

Of course, the two possibilities may not be mutually exclusive. Last year's restrictions dragged on until July.

Hidden in that SAGE advice is a hint that these restrictions will be needed for "winter" - so into March we go

Given big O is 16x more transmissible, surely it isn't going to take over 3 months to get through society?

I imagine that the excuse for carrying on for months anyway will be something along the lines of "the hospitals are all on fire, we need all that time to put out the flames." And then the eventual drop off in cases and admissions will be attributed entirely to the lockdown, which will then be hailed as a huge success, rather than the bloody disease finally having burnt itself out.

Carnyx

Malmesbury said:

Right.

Vital question - what kind of biscuits for the panic?

We can brew the tea on the engine of @HYUFD's Covenanter - no BV, sadly....

The BV was one of the greatest technological advances of the British military-aeronautical industry. Judging from the universal user approval. Amazing no other army (AFAIK) sees fit to install electric kettles in its armoured vehicles.

pigeon

HYUFD said:

New polling for the Sunday Times finds 60% of voters oppose a ban on households mixing at Christmas and 58% oppose closing pubs and restaurants.
https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1472274950237175819?s=20

However most voters do back negative tests and vaxports for hospitality venues

So, what you're saying is that most of the Tory Party and most of the population doesn't want a repeat of the 'lock everyone up for months strategy' that SAGE and the NHS bosses are screaming for?

The reaction when the Prime Minister gives in to the scientists and gives them everything they've asked for, in both Parliament and the country, is going to be quite something.

not_on_fire

HYUFD said:

New polling for the Sunday Times finds 60% of voters oppose a ban on households mixing at Christmas and 58% oppose closing pubs and restaurants.
https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1472274950237175819?s=20

However most voters do back negative tests and vaxports for hospitality venues

COVID restrictions are like taxes - everyone is in favour of ones that don't impact them.

Endillion

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

pigeon said:

Do the Tories use Johnson as a lightning rod for discontent over restrictions and then dump him when they're gone, or do they also let him take the blame for the local election results and then get rid of him?

Of course, the two possibilities may not be mutually exclusive. Last year's restrictions dragged on until July.

Hidden in that SAGE advice is a hint that these restrictions will be needed for "winter" - so into March we go

Given big O is 16x more transmissible, surely it isn't going to take over 3 months to get through society?

If we go into lockdown, it'll take longer.

Yay.

Leon

pigeon said:

HYUFD said:

New polling for the Sunday Times finds 60% of voters oppose a ban on households mixing at Christmas and 58% oppose closing pubs and restaurants.
https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1472274950237175819?s=20

However most voters do back negative tests and vaxports for hospitality venues

So, what you're saying is that most of the Tory Party and most of the population doesn't want a repeat of the 'lock everyone up for months strategy' that SAGE and the NHS bosses are screaming for?

The reaction when the Prime Minister gives in to the scientists and gives them everything they've asked for, in both Parliament and the country, is going to be quite something.

I think it could break the Tory party in two

Carnyx

solarflare said:

Malmesbury said:

Right.

Vital question - what kind of biscuits for the panic?

We can brew the tea on the engine of @HYUFD's Covenanter - no BV, sadly....

I'll plump for Jammy dodgers, Hobnobs, or a dark chocolate Choco Leibniz.

Biscuits, plain, armed forces for the use of. I once wandered by accident into one of the 1970s regional stores for food to be used after the bomb dropped - an old airfield on which something else was going on. When I walked into a Nissen hut it was full of plastic boxes like giant ice cream cartons full of those biscuits. I wonder if they ever got eaten ...

fox327

FrancisUrquhart said:

Turns on Sky News and it is full of end of the world is nigh.

Boris won't be long now until he announces new restrictions.

The Sky News website reports "Scientists have repeatedly stressed hospitalisation numbers are the key factor in deciding what COVID measures to introduce."

The number of COVID patients in hospital has hardly changed and is well below 10,000. COVID deaths are still falling. It is starting to look as if the current facts about NHS COVID admissions and deaths do not matter to the government's scientific experts, or the reports from South Africa, only case numbers - and even cases are reduced from yesterday. I do not see a case for a lockdown at the moment.

HYUFD

pigeon said:

HYUFD said:

New polling for the Sunday Times finds 60% of voters oppose a ban on households mixing at Christmas and 58% oppose closing pubs and restaurants.
https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1472274950237175819?s=20

However most voters do back negative tests and vaxports for hospitality venues

So, what you're saying is that most of the Tory Party and most of the population doesn't want a repeat of the 'lock everyone up for months strategy' that SAGE and the NHS bosses are screaming for?

The reaction when the Prime Minister gives in to the scientists and gives them everything they've asked for, in both Parliament and the country, is going to be quite something.

Indeed, it would lead to a VONC in the PM from Tory MPs in a week and public disturbance on those numbers

ClippP

HYUFD said:

Well never fear, if we do go to another lockdown at least we can speculate on the earth shattering prospect of Cheltenham and Guildford going LD at the next general election to keep us going through the dark nights alone

Quite right, young HY. Those and quite a lot more. Good, innit?

FrancisUrquhart

Biden to deliver speech on Tuesday to address Omicron and to issue a "stark warning" of what winter will look like for those who remain unvaccinated - NBC

Too late for antivaxxers.

IshmaelZ

HYUFD said:

Well never fear, if we do go to another lockdown at least we can speculate on the earth shattering prospect of Cheltenham and Guildford going LD at the next general election to keep us going through the dark nights alone

That post is going to look a lot less droll, when it happens. You just have no idea how irrevocably you lot have lost the shire tory vote. I can promise you NS was not all about a moment's pique over a Christmas party or two.

Foxy

fox327 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Turns on Sky News and it is full of end of the world is nigh.

Boris won't be long now until he announces new restrictions.

The Sky News website reports "Scientists have repeatedly stressed hospitalisation numbers are the key factor in deciding what COVID measures to introduce."

The number of COVID patients in hospital has hardly changed and is well below 10,000. COVID deaths are still falling. It is starting to look as if the current facts about NHS COVID admissions and deaths do not matter to the government's scientific experts, or the reports from South Africa, only case numbers - and even cases are reduced from yesterday. I do not see a case for a lockdown at the moment.

The difficulty is that waiting for deaths or even admissions to rise is too late for lockdown to work.

The worst option is to lockdown too late for it work, taking an unnecessary hit both ways.

MaxPB

Leon said:

pigeon said:

HYUFD said:

New polling for the Sunday Times finds 60% of voters oppose a ban on households mixing at Christmas and 58% oppose closing pubs and restaurants.
https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1472274950237175819?s=20

However most voters do back negative tests and vaxports for hospitality venues

So, what you're saying is that most of the Tory Party and most of the population doesn't want a repeat of the 'lock everyone up for months strategy' that SAGE and the NHS bosses are screaming for?

The reaction when the Prime Minister gives in to the scientists and gives them everything they've asked for, in both Parliament and the country, is going to be quite something.

I think it could break the Tory party in two

I doubt it, there's not a lot of appetite for another lockdown save for a few true believers like Hunt.

Foxy

Rose is very sweet and a great dancer, but surely 1.05 is too short for the final. I have laid a bit.

CorrectHorseBattery

https://twitter.com/mos_politics/status/1472288549584125953

@Philip_Thompson?

CorrectHorseBattery

Frosty has resigned, lol so much for in Frost we trust

dr_spyn

Mail claiming Lord Frost has resigned.

https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1472288549584125953

No_Offence_Alan

solarflare said:

Malmesbury said:

Right.

Vital question - what kind of biscuits for the panic?

We can brew the tea on the engine of @HYUFD's Covenanter - no BV, sadly....

I'll plump for Jammy dodgers, Hobnobs, or a dark chocolate Choco Leibniz.

Simmers' Abernethy biscuits for me.

El_Capitano

Frosty the Go Man!

HYUFD

IshmaelZ said:

HYUFD said:

Well never fear, if we do go to another lockdown at least we can speculate on the earth shattering prospect of Cheltenham and Guildford going LD at the next general election to keep us going through the dark nights alone

That post is going to look a lot less droll, when it happens. You just have no idea how irrevocably you lot have lost the shire tory vote. I can promise you NS was not all about a moment's pique over a Christmas party or two.

We haven't, the rural Tory vote will be back at the next general election if the Tories do not push through more and more lockdowns (in which case it would go RefUK) this was a by election protest vote over partygate. Though the suburban and commuter belt Tory vote will be more of a challenge to win back from the LDs and Labour.

FrancisUrquhart

Has Boris told Frost they plan on deploying the NI nuclear option?

CorrectHorseBattery

Guildford is definitely lost and so is Winchester.

Gallowgate

dr_spyn said:

Mail claiming Lord Frost has resigned.

https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1472288549584125953

lol.

Chameleon

Frost going is surely it for for BoJo?

pigeon

Foxy said:

fox327 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Turns on Sky News and it is full of end of the world is nigh.

Boris won't be long now until he announces new restrictions.

The Sky News website reports "Scientists have repeatedly stressed hospitalisation numbers are the key factor in deciding what COVID measures to introduce."

The number of COVID patients in hospital has hardly changed and is well below 10,000. COVID deaths are still falling. It is starting to look as if the current facts about NHS COVID admissions and deaths do not matter to the government's scientific experts, or the reports from South Africa, only case numbers - and even cases are reduced from yesterday. I do not see a case for a lockdown at the moment.

The difficulty is that waiting for deaths or even admissions to rise is too late for lockdown to work.

The worst option is to lockdown too late for it work, taking an unnecessary hit both ways.

Do we trust Boris Johnson not to pick the worst possible course of action?

Hmmmm...

HYUFD

dr_spyn said:

Mail claiming Lord Frost has resigned.

https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1472288549584125953

A bad loss for Boris

pigeon

HYUFD said:

dr_spyn said:

Mail claiming Lord Frost has resigned.

https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1472288549584125953

A bad loss for Boris

It's just a flesh wound!

El_Capitano

HYUFD said:

dr_spyn said:

Mail claiming Lord Frost has resigned.

https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1472288549584125953

A bad loss for Boris

Perception-wise, sure. But not talent-wise.

Frost was the most dismal of a not exactly stellar Cabinet, and I include Priti Patel and Dominic Raab in that. An overpromoted Scotch whisky salesman.

CorrectHorseBattery

But I thought Brexit was going so well?

Gary_Burton

I'm rather careful about predicting LD seats as they undershot expectations in 2017 and 2019 although I think aiming to gain about 20 seats from the Tories on this list and hold Chesham and Amersham is a realistic aim for the LDs even if they are unlikely to gain more than 10-12 when the push comes to the shove.

Arguably Wantage near the bottom of the list is a better prospect (depending on boundary changes) than some further up as there is still a decent Labour vote to squeeze as well as an extremely strong local councillor base.

Chameleon

HYUFD said:

New polling for the Sunday Times finds 60% of voters oppose a ban on households mixing at Christmas and 58% oppose closing pubs and restaurants.
https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1472274950237175819?s=20

However most voters do back negative tests and vaxports for hospitality venues

Makes sense - the societal risk is abstract, and for most people the risk to them and their families is effectively 0.

Scott_xP

If even the Brexit loons can no longer stomach BoZo...

Scott_xP

Truss had her chance to be first, and didn't take it.

ROFLMAO

Theuniondivvie

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Frosty has resigned, lol so much for in Frost we trust

Thoughts with Phil T.

IshmaelZ

HYUFD said:

IshmaelZ said:

HYUFD said:

Well never fear, if we do go to another lockdown at least we can speculate on the earth shattering prospect of Cheltenham and Guildford going LD at the next general election to keep us going through the dark nights alone

That post is going to look a lot less droll, when it happens. You just have no idea how irrevocably you lot have lost the shire tory vote. I can promise you NS was not all about a moment's pique over a Christmas party or two.

We haven't, the rural Tory vote will be back at the next general election if the Tories do not push though more and more lockdowns (in which case it would go RefUK) this was a protest vote over partygate. Though the suburban and commuter belt Tory vote will be more of a challenge.

"People say Peter Mandelson is only interested in politics, but that overstates the breadth of his interests. He is only interested in Labour party poilitics."

"People say HYUFD is only interested in Tory party politics, but that overstates the breadth of his interests. He is only interested in Epping Forest Tory party poilitics."

I can absolutely 100% guarantee you the rural tory vote won't be back. It will vote LD or stay home.

Gallowgate

Theuniondivvie said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Frosty has resigned, lol so much for in Frost we trust

Thoughts with Phil T.

+1 condolences

FrancisUrquhart

I am wondering what is the worst time for Boris to announce new restrictions so I can plan...day before Christmas Eve?

ASoprano

Gallowgate said:

Theuniondivvie said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Frosty has resigned, lol so much for in Frost we trust

Thoughts with Phil T.

+1 condolences

Phil T has already factored this into his calculations. Frost is useless so getting rid is, and always has been, the best thing to do. Also, he doesn't care if anyone dies or anything like that. Robot boy is good at adding up.

Alistair

Take that Exeter.

Scott_xP

The concept of Brexit ministers going from gung-ho to "this is tricky" to "I must resign out of principle" was described by @rafaelbehr here: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/08/dominic-raab-britain-island-ignorance-brexit-secretary

MaxPB

Frost resigning is a huge body blow for Boris. The 100 MPs have a lot of crossover with hard-line Brexit supporters. If Frost no longer has confidence in Boris then I can't see how Boris survives. He's now relying on the Hunt supporting wing of the party, the broadly remainer, lockdown supporting faction. That's already a small number and now they've got to back Boris instead of their own man which will thin them out further.

The end of Boris is close now.

Scott_xP

There was no reason for Frost to stay.

Brexit is done...

NickPalmer

Gallowgate said:

dr_spyn said:

Mail claiming Lord Frost has resigned.

https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1472288549584125953

lol.

I imagine this relates to the report that Britain is accepting the ECJ are "temporary" arbiter.

IshmaelZ

ASoprano said:

Gallowgate said:

Theuniondivvie said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Frosty has resigned, lol so much for in Frost we trust

Thoughts with Phil T.

+1 condolences

Phil T has already factored this into his calculations. Frost is useless so getting rid is, and always has been, the best thing to do. Also, he doesn't care if anyone dies or anything like that. Robot boy is good at adding up.

This just shows how nimble Lord Frost is. Staying in place would have been really sclerotic.

ASoprano

FrancisUrquhart said:

I am wondering what is the worst time for Boris to announce new restrictions so I can plan...day before Christmas Eve?

You already know the answer and so does your PhD supervisor. I'm waiting for you to tell me what to do. Just waiting for that prediction so I know whether to get the bog rolls in..

Stuartinromford

Scott_xP said:

If even the Brexit loons can no longer stomach BoZo...

It's all the Conservatives saying the government should ignore unelected nobodies.

That sort of thing can hurt a chap's feelings.

Alistair

Sunak has a choice. Either resign or keep the keys to the treasury.

Resigning makes him prohibitive favourite for the job I think.

FrancisUrquhart

Well one thing is for certain, politics (still) certainly isn't boring.

HYUFD

IshmaelZ said:

HYUFD said:

IshmaelZ said:

HYUFD said:

Well never fear, if we do go to another lockdown at least we can speculate on the earth shattering prospect of Cheltenham and Guildford going LD at the next general election to keep us going through the dark nights alone

That post is going to look a lot less droll, when it happens. You just have no idea how irrevocably you lot have lost the shire tory vote. I can promise you NS was not all about a moment's pique over a Christmas party or two.

We haven't, the rural Tory vote will be back at the next general election if the Tories do not push though more and more lockdowns (in which case it would go RefUK) this was a protest vote over partygate. Though the suburban and commuter belt Tory vote will be more of a challenge.

"People say Peter Mandelson is only interested in politics, but that overstates the breadth of his interests. He is only interested in Labour party poilitics."

"People say HYUFD is only interested in Tory party politics, but that overstates the breadth of his interests. He is only interested in Epping Forest Tory party poilitics."

I can absolutely 100% guarantee you the rural tory vote won't be back. It will vote LD or stay home.

That is rubbish, if that was the case the LDs would be polling 30%+ in general election polls not just 10% and the Tories would be polling under 20%.

North Shropshire was a by election protest vote that is it. If the LDs do gain Tory seats at the next general election they will be in mainly Remain voting parts of London and cities and towns in the South as OGH's chart shows not in Leave voting rural areas

Gallowgate

HYUFD said:

IshmaelZ said:

HYUFD said:

IshmaelZ said:

HYUFD said:

Well never fear, if we do go to another lockdown at least we can speculate on the earth shattering prospect of Cheltenham and Guildford going LD at the next general election to keep us going through the dark nights alone

That post is going to look a lot less droll, when it happens. You just have no idea how irrevocably you lot have lost the shire tory vote. I can promise you NS was not all about a moment's pique over a Christmas party or two.

We haven't, the rural Tory vote will be back at the next general election if the Tories do not push though more and more lockdowns (in which case it would go RefUK) this was a protest vote over partygate. Though the suburban and commuter belt Tory vote will be more of a challenge.

"People say Peter Mandelson is only interested in politics, but that overstates the breadth of his interests. He is only interested in Labour party poilitics."

"People say HYUFD is only interested in Tory party politics, but that overstates the breadth of his interests. He is only interested in Epping Forest Tory party poilitics."

I can absolutely 100% guarantee you the rural tory vote won't be back. It will vote LD or stay home.

That is rubbish, if that was the case the LDs would be polling 30%+ not just 10% and the Tories would be polling under 20%.

North Shropshire was a by election protest vote that is it. If the LDs do gain Tory seats at the next general election they will be in mainly Remain voting parts of London and cities and towns in the South as OGH's chart shows

Give it time lad

Big_G_NorthWales

NickPalmer said:

Gallowgate said:

dr_spyn said:

Mail claiming Lord Frost has resigned.

https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1472288549584125953

lol.

I imagine this relates to the report that Britain is accepting the ECJ are "temporary" arbiter.

If this is Boris changing tack to defuse the EU as an issue and will accept the deal on the table for NI then I for one will be pleased

It will be interesting to see how this evolves

FrancisUrquhart

Here is the story.....

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10324429/Brexit-minister-Lord-Frost-walks-Boris.html

Its been spun as general pissed off with everything the government is doing.

RochdalePioneers

So has Frost quit because the PM refuses to let him fix the shit deal negotiated in error by the idiot Frost?

Or because the PM hasn't a fucking clue what any of it means and keeps saying "renegotiate", "trigger Article 16" etc as if that would do anything good?

Either way, pity he isn't in the commons. His resignation speech could have been interesting...

pigeon

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

IshmaelZ said:

HYUFD said:

IshmaelZ said:

HYUFD said:

Well never fear, if we do go to another lockdown at least we can speculate on the earth shattering prospect of Cheltenham and Guildford going LD at the next general election to keep us going through the dark nights alone

That post is going to look a lot less droll, when it happens. You just have no idea how irrevocably you lot have lost the shire tory vote. I can promise you NS was not all about a moment's pique over a Christmas party or two.

We haven't, the rural Tory vote will be back at the next general election if the Tories do not push though more and more lockdowns (in which case it would go RefUK) this was a protest vote over partygate. Though the suburban and commuter belt Tory vote will be more of a challenge.

"People say Peter Mandelson is only interested in politics, but that overstates the breadth of his interests. He is only interested in Labour party poilitics."

"People say HYUFD is only interested in Tory party politics, but that overstates the breadth of his interests. He is only interested in Epping Forest Tory party poilitics."

I can absolutely 100% guarantee you the rural tory vote won't be back. It will vote LD or stay home.

That is rubbish, if that was the case the LDs would be polling 30%+ not just 10% and the Tories would be polling under 20%.

North Shropshire was a by election protest vote that is it. If the LDs do gain Tory seats at the next general election they will be in mainly Remain voting parts of London and cities and towns in the South as OGH's chart shows

Give it time lad

Sorry to come over all Ministry of the Bleedin' Obvious (well, I'm not really,) but there is (probably) a long time to go to the next election. It's a bit early for these sorts of predictions.

SandyRentool

solarflare said:

Malmesbury said:

Right.

Vital question - what kind of biscuits for the panic?

We can brew the tea on the engine of @HYUFD's Covenanter - no BV, sadly....

I'll plump for Jammy dodgers, Hobnobs, or a dark chocolate Choco Leibniz.

I've just had a dark chocolate Choco Leibniz. Yum.

ASoprano

FrancisUrquhart said:

Well one thing is for certain, politics (still) certainly isn't boring.

Franny U. Please can you give me your estimate on hospitalisations etc. You are so good at guessing everything, I want to know in advance so I can tell what to do.

I come on this site to read you, Max and Philly T. What's going to happen?

Scott_xP

Confirmed: Brexit minister Lord Frost will resign from the government at end of year (as per report in @MailOnline). According to a colleague: Frost handed his resignation to @BorisJohnson “earlier this month after opposing the Plan B covid measures in cabinet”. MTF
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1472295047718711299

Razedabode

Seems like the government is on the verge of collapsing tbh.

The frost resignation surely part of something wider?

MaxPB

Alistair said:

Sunak has a choice. Either resign or keep the keys to the treasury.

Resigning makes him prohibitive favourite for the job I think.

I think he'd have to resign after whatever meeting Boris tries to push lockdown through in terms of timing. He'd immediately trigger a VONC in Boris, the numbers already exist and he'd become the presumptive anti-lockdown candidate.

Endillion

HYUFD said:

IshmaelZ said:

HYUFD said:

IshmaelZ said:

HYUFD said:

Well never fear, if we do go to another lockdown at least we can speculate on the earth shattering prospect of Cheltenham and Guildford going LD at the next general election to keep us going through the dark nights alone

That post is going to look a lot less droll, when it happens. You just have no idea how irrevocably you lot have lost the shire tory vote. I can promise you NS was not all about a moment's pique over a Christmas party or two.

We haven't, the rural Tory vote will be back at the next general election if the Tories do not push though more and more lockdowns (in which case it would go RefUK) this was a protest vote over partygate. Though the suburban and commuter belt Tory vote will be more of a challenge.

"People say Peter Mandelson is only interested in politics, but that overstates the breadth of his interests. He is only interested in Labour party poilitics."

"People say HYUFD is only interested in Tory party politics, but that overstates the breadth of his interests. He is only interested in Epping Forest Tory party poilitics."

I can absolutely 100% guarantee you the rural tory vote won't be back. It will vote LD or stay home.

That is rubbish, if that was the case the LDs would be polling 30%+ in general election polls not just 10% and the Tories would be polling under 20%.

North Shropshire was a by election protest vote that is it. If the LDs do gain Tory seats at the next general election they will be in mainly Remain voting parts of London and cities and towns in the South as OGH's chart shows

Well, all that chart shows is where the Lib Dems got closest (relatively speaking) last time out. The next Lib Dem campaign is likely to look considerably different from the last one, and their appeal will shift accordingly.

CorrectHorseBattery

@HYUFD seems to have gone for arrogance and denial now, very similar to what some Labour supporters did during/after GE19.

MaxPB

RochdalePioneers said:

So has Frost quit because the PM refuses to let him fix the shit deal negotiated in error by the idiot Frost?

Or because the PM hasn't a fucking clue what any of it means and keeps saying "renegotiate", "trigger Article 16" etc as if that would do anything good?

Either way, pity he isn't in the commons. His resignation speech could have been interesting...

Apparently related to opposing plan b.

Scott_xP

Stage 4 ... already

https://mobile.twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1472288549584125953 https://twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/1471743773503860739

@wildernessyrs A few stages yet to go.
1. "can't dump PM in middle of crisis, but ..."
2. New Year Relaunch! (preceded by reshuffle speculation)
3. Relaunch blows up on launchpad
4. Big name cabinet flounce
5. Fruitcake backbencher -> Reform?

Theuniondivvie

IshmaelZ said:

ASoprano said:

Gallowgate said:

Theuniondivvie said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Frosty has resigned, lol so much for in Frost we trust

Thoughts with Phil T.

+1 condolences

Phil T has already factored this into his calculations. Frost is useless so getting rid is, and always has been, the best thing to do. Also, he doesn't care if anyone dies or anything like that. Robot boy is good at adding up.

This just shows how nimble Lord Frost is. Staying in place would have been really sclerotic.

When Brexit's pear shapedness becomes unarguable, Frosty will no doubt pivot back to his former pro EU convictions. He's the sort to have managed a continuously successful career in Germany all the way from the 20s through to the GDR.

FF43

El_Capitano said:

HYUFD said:

dr_spyn said:

Mail claiming Lord Frost has resigned.

https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1472288549584125953

A bad loss for Boris

Perception-wise, sure. But not talent-wise.

Frost was the most dismal of a not exactly stellar Cabinet, and I include Priti Patel and Dominic Raab in that. An overpromoted Scotch whisky salesman.

David Frost is an interesting blend of careerist and fanatic. Did he flee the sinking HMS Boris or is he heading into the jungle to fight on for the Revolution?

Scott_xP

Lord Frost's resignation exemplifies a pattern among all the loud sovereignty purists: upon realising that there are difficult trade-offs inherent in their own choices, they pack their bags and leave, blaming others for the self-inflicted mess.
https://twitter.com/AntonSpisak/status/1472295808066281477

Sunil_Prasannan

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Frosty has resigned, lol so much for in Frost we trust

In God we Truss, surely?

CorrectHorseBattery

Is Philip working out what lines to take?

Beibheirli_C

So, Lord Frost has resigned because he disagrees with policy?

I presume then that he fully agreed with Brexit in spite of his views in his younger days?

IshmaelZ

HYUFD said:

IshmaelZ said:

HYUFD said:

IshmaelZ said:

HYUFD said:

Well never fear, if we do go to another lockdown at least we can speculate on the earth shattering prospect of Cheltenham and Guildford going LD at the next general election to keep us going through the dark nights alone

That post is going to look a lot less droll, when it happens. You just have no idea how irrevocably you lot have lost the shire tory vote. I can promise you NS was not all about a moment's pique over a Christmas party or two.

We haven't, the rural Tory vote will be back at the next general election if the Tories do not push though more and more lockdowns (in which case it would go RefUK) this was a protest vote over partygate. Though the suburban and commuter belt Tory vote will be more of a challenge.

"People say Peter Mandelson is only interested in politics, but that overstates the breadth of his interests. He is only interested in Labour party poilitics."

"People say HYUFD is only interested in Tory party politics, but that overstates the breadth of his interests. He is only interested in Epping Forest Tory party poilitics."

I can absolutely 100% guarantee you the rural tory vote won't be back. It will vote LD or stay home.

That is rubbish, if that was the case the LDs would be polling 30%+ in general election polls not just 10% and the Tories would be polling under 20%.

North Shropshire was a by election protest vote that is it. If the LDs do gain Tory seats at the next general election they will be in mainly Remain voting parts of London and cities and towns in the South as OGH's chart shows not in Leave voting rural areas

Never mind opinion polling, look at actual outcomes, and bear in mind that polling is done by online panels these days. Shire tories don't do online panels, they just vote, or not.You had con maj 80 and you didn't use it to repeal the Hunting Act. Sure, you never said you were going to, and there were stacks of reasons not to. Equally, we never said we would vote for you in 2023...

Cookie

The normal pattern is to wait until the wave is peaking and then announce lockdown. Then you can look as if what you're doing has worked.
Jan 3rd it is then.

MaxPB

If it's true and Frost has resigned because of Plan B that closes down lockdown options even further for Boris. He's far too weak to now to push the lockdown past the party, the failure of the SAGE models post July has made Tory MPs very sceptical about anything they get told by the government on predictions of catastrophe so they can't scaremonger their way out of it either.

Big_G_NorthWales

RochdalePioneers said:

So has Frost quit because the PM refuses to let him fix the shit deal negotiated in error by the idiot Frost?

Or because the PM hasn't a fucking clue what any of it means and keeps saying "renegotiate", "trigger Article 16" etc as if that would do anything good?

Either way, pity he isn't in the commons. His resignation speech could have been interesting...

Seems it is not EU related but objection to plan b, tax rises and the green agenda

Another conservative out of touch with public oponion

TimS

Frost seems to have resigned based on a checklist of lazy right wing tropes. He’s become more Redwood than Redwood.

It actually makes me question my lockdown-scepticism.

If Tory rebellion against Boris is based on Frost’s bugbears then they are buggered. It’s like the people who decided Ed Miliband wasn’t left wing enough.

FrancisUrquhart

Cookie said:

The normal pattern is to wait until the wave is peaking and then announce lockdown. Then you can look as if what you're doing has worked.
Jan 3rd it is then.

That has been my call for a couple of weeks, but now wondering if Boris can really screw himself by announcing these restrictions before Christmas, but not coming into force for a week.

darkage

MaxPB said:

RochdalePioneers said:

So has Frost quit because the PM refuses to let him fix the shit deal negotiated in error by the idiot Frost?

Or because the PM hasn't a fucking clue what any of it means and keeps saying "renegotiate", "trigger Article 16" etc as if that would do anything good?

Either way, pity he isn't in the commons. His resignation speech could have been interesting...

Apparently related to opposing plan b.

Given his reasons; I would speculate that it is somewhat related to the Carrie/No.10 problems.

FrancisUrquhart

🚨 | NEW: Piers Corbyn;

"We've got to hammer to death those scum, those scum who have decided to go ahead with introducing new fascism."

"If your MP is one of them, go to their offices, and, well, I'd recommend burning them down."

https://t.co/QJ8S0r88v3

How many weeks is it since an MP was murdered?

boulay

IshmaelZ said:

HYUFD said:

IshmaelZ said:

HYUFD said:

IshmaelZ said:

HYUFD said:

Well never fear, if we do go to another lockdown at least we can speculate on the earth shattering prospect of Cheltenham and Guildford going LD at the next general election to keep us going through the dark nights alone

That post is going to look a lot less droll, when it happens. You just have no idea how irrevocably you lot have lost the shire tory vote. I can promise you NS was not all about a moment's pique over a Christmas party or two.

We haven't, the rural Tory vote will be back at the next general election if the Tories do not push though more and more lockdowns (in which case it would go RefUK) this was a protest vote over partygate. Though the suburban and commuter belt Tory vote will be more of a challenge.

"People say Peter Mandelson is only interested in politics, but that overstates the breadth of his interests. He is only interested in Labour party poilitics."

"People say HYUFD is only interested in Tory party politics, but that overstates the breadth of his interests. He is only interested in Epping Forest Tory party poilitics."

I can absolutely 100% guarantee you the rural tory vote won't be back. It will vote LD or stay home.

That is rubbish, if that was the case the LDs would be polling 30%+ in general election polls not just 10% and the Tories would be polling under 20%.

North Shropshire was a by election protest vote that is it. If the LDs do gain Tory seats at the next general election they will be in mainly Remain voting parts of London and cities and towns in the South as OGH's chart shows not in Leave voting rural areas

Never mind opinion polling, look at actual outcomes, and bear in mind that polling is done by online panels these days. Shire tories don't do online panels, they just vote, or not.You had con maj 80 and you didn't use it to repeal the Hunting Act. Sure, you never said you were going to, and there were stacks of reasons not to. Equally, we never said we would vote for you in 2023...

Isn’t this all a bit of a crossover - usually on here and elsewhere people need to be reminded that they need to remember to see things as they are rather than how they want it to be politically, whereas right now we are basing future politics where it is now rather than where it will be - so if you believe the shires are lost to the Tories then as it is then yes - probably true - but if that’s likely then it won’t be the case for long potentially as the Tories will make a big change so how it is now will not be the same leader etc next election.

So, sorry for the slightly drunken drivel, people are projecting a situation that is bad for the Tories but by people projecting a situation that’s bad for the Tories it increases the chances that the Tories will react that will then reduce that being the outcome.

stodge

HYUFD said:

That is rubbish, if that was the case the LDs would be polling 30%+ in general election polls not just 10% and the Tories would be polling under 20%.

North Shropshire was a by election protest vote that is it. If the LDs do gain Tory seats at the next general election they will be in mainly Remain voting parts of London and cities and towns in the South as OGH's chart shows not in Leave voting rural areas

You're not wrong of course. I don't expect North Shropshire to be an easy LD hold at the next GE - after all, Christchurch was regained by Christopher Chope in 1997 (though Newbury wasn't).

I'm not sure all the "targets" in OGH's list are as in-play as the numbers suggest. I mentioned earlier the County Council seats in Elmbridge had remained solidly Conservative this year and I think there are better LD prospects in Surrey for example.

It's back to the usual suspects - Cheltenham, St Ives, Winchester and the like. I can see the LD journey to 20-25 seats - beyond that and I look at the likes of Taunton Deane, Wantage and Chippenham. Are they potential gains? Clearly, on the North Shropshire numbers, very much so but nobody expects either the Spanish Inquisition or a LD poll swing mirroring North Shropshire.

To win Wantage, I think you'd need to see the Conservative vote share down to 40% or less and the Labour vote squeezed down to sub 10% - conceivable?

FrancisUrquhart

Perhaps Frosty was the only one not invited to last year Christmas parties and feeling left out.

Stuartinromford

Scott_xP said:

Confirmed: Brexit minister Lord Frost will resign from the government at end of year (as per report in @MailOnline). According to a colleague: Frost handed his resignation to @BorisJohnson “earlier this month after opposing the Plan B covid measures in cabinet”. MTF
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1472295047718711299

Here's a question-

If Frosty is that unimpressed with the direction of government, why the gap between the sending letter and his actual resignation?

Shouldn't he be out ASAP?

pigeon

MaxPB said:

If it's true and Frost has resigned because of Plan B that closes down lockdown options even further for Boris. He's far too weak to now to push the lockdown past the party, the failure of the SAGE models post July has made Tory MPs very sceptical about anything they get told by the government on predictions of catastrophe so they can't scaremonger their way out of it either.

All the same, Govt payroll + Tory lockdown hawks + Labour easily gives him the votes to lock us all up again.

darkage

This Frost departure is an absolutely major story. Frost owes his political career, and position in general to Johnson. Brexit is all Frosts work. There is no worse departure, everyone else in the cabinet is disposable. I would say that it is all over for Johnson.

Andy_JS

A TV programme worth watching — Gyles Brandreth documentary about Charles Dickens on Five atm.