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Some of the CON seats that could fall on a 10% swing to the LDs – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited December 2021 in General
imageSome of the CON seats that could fall on a 10% swing to the LDs – politicalbetting.com

In the previous header Quincel looked at the possibility of the Domonic Raab losing his seat if the LDs do well in the seats where they are competitive.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • 🚨🚨 | BREAKING: One option the government is considering is imposing a time limited circuit breaker, and then the release of restrictions is linked to how many of us get vaccinated

    Via @thesundaytimes

    Held hostage by thr antivaxxers....that will go down worse than yet another #10 zoom quiz.
  • test
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    Turns on Sky News and it is full of end of the world is nigh.

    Boris won't be long now until he announces new restrictions.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,617
    edited December 2021
    Do the Tories use Johnson as a lightning rod for discontent over restrictions and then dump him when they're gone, or do they also let him take the blame for the local election results and then get rid of him?

    Of course, the two possibilities may not be mutually exclusive. The last major battery of restrictions started before Christmas but didn't unwind fully until the following July.
  • Also, I absolutely hate the phrase "circuit-breaker". It's just such a "made-for-public-consumption" made up bullshit of a phrase.

    It is highly misleading as it makes it sound like you can just turn off transmission, when we know it takes a week to even start that happening (as initially you increase household transmission).
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    pigeon said:

    Do the Tories use Johnson as a lightning rod for discontent over restrictions and then dump him when they're gone, or do they also let him take the blame for the local election results and then get rid of him?

    Of course, the two possibilities may not be mutually exclusive. Last year's restrictions dragged on until July.

    Hidden in that SAGE advice is a hint that these restrictions will be needed for "winter" - so into March we go
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 2,162

    Also, I absolutely hate the phrase "circuit-breaker". It's just such a "made-for-public-consumption" made up bullshit of a phrase.

    It is highly misleading as it makes it sound like you can just turn off transmission, when we know it takes a week to even start that happening (as initially you increase household transmission).
    Exactly. It sounds like a reset, when in reality it's just more of a pause.
  • Also, I absolutely hate the phrase "circuit-breaker". It's just such a "made-for-public-consumption" made up bullshit of a phrase.

    It is highly misleading as it makes it sound like you can just turn off transmission, when we know it takes a week to even start that happening (as initially you increase household transmission).
    Exactly. It sounds like a reset, when in reality it's just more of a pause.
    Its not even a pause, it more turning the dimmer switch slowly down, but in two weeks you haven't even turned the light off.
  • HYUFD said:

    Well never fear, if we do go to another lockdown at least we can speculate on the earth shattering prospect of Cheltenham and Guildford going LD at the next general election to keep us going through the dark nights alone

    If you find that helps you then so be it.
  • Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Do the Tories use Johnson as a lightning rod for discontent over restrictions and then dump him when they're gone, or do they also let him take the blame for the local election results and then get rid of him?

    Of course, the two possibilities may not be mutually exclusive. Last year's restrictions dragged on until July.

    Hidden in that SAGE advice is a hint that these restrictions will be needed for "winter" - so into March we go
    Given big O is 16x more transmissible, surely it isn't going to take over 3 months to get through society?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,380
    edited December 2021
    Right.

    Vital question - what kind of biscuits for the panic?

    We can brew the tea on the engine of @HYUFD's Covenanter - no BV, sadly....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    New polling for the Sunday Times finds 60% of voters oppose a ban on households mixing at Christmas and 58% oppose closing pubs and restaurants.
    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1472274950237175819?s=20

    However most voters do back negative tests and vaxports for hospitality venues
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 2,162

    Right.

    Vital question - what kind of biscuits for the panic?

    We can brew the tea on the engine of @HYUFD's Covenanter - no BV, sadly....

    I'll plump for Jammy dodgers, Hobnobs, or a dark chocolate Choco Leibniz.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,617

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Do the Tories use Johnson as a lightning rod for discontent over restrictions and then dump him when they're gone, or do they also let him take the blame for the local election results and then get rid of him?

    Of course, the two possibilities may not be mutually exclusive. Last year's restrictions dragged on until July.

    Hidden in that SAGE advice is a hint that these restrictions will be needed for "winter" - so into March we go
    Given big O is 16x more transmissible, surely it isn't going to take over 3 months to get through society?
    I imagine that the excuse for carrying on for months anyway will be something along the lines of "the hospitals are all on fire, we need all that time to put out the flames." And then the eventual drop off in cases and admissions will be attributed entirely to the lockdown, which will then be hailed as a huge success, rather than the bloody disease finally having burnt itself out.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875

    Right.

    Vital question - what kind of biscuits for the panic?

    We can brew the tea on the engine of @HYUFD's Covenanter - no BV, sadly....

    The BV was one of the greatest technological advances of the British military-aeronautical industry. Judging from the universal user approval. Amazing no other army (AFAIK) sees fit to install electric kettles in its armoured vehicles.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,617
    edited December 2021
    HYUFD said:

    New polling for the Sunday Times finds 60% of voters oppose a ban on households mixing at Christmas and 58% oppose closing pubs and restaurants.
    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1472274950237175819?s=20

    However most voters do back negative tests and vaxports for hospitality venues

    So, what you're saying is that most of the Tory Party and most of the population doesn't want a repeat of the 'lock everyone up for months strategy' that SAGE and the NHS bosses are screaming for?

    The reaction when the Prime Minister gives in to the scientists and gives them everything they've asked for, in both Parliament and the country, is going to be quite something.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,219
    HYUFD said:

    New polling for the Sunday Times finds 60% of voters oppose a ban on households mixing at Christmas and 58% oppose closing pubs and restaurants.
    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1472274950237175819?s=20

    However most voters do back negative tests and vaxports for hospitality venues

    COVID restrictions are like taxes - everyone is in favour of ones that don't impact them.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,255

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Do the Tories use Johnson as a lightning rod for discontent over restrictions and then dump him when they're gone, or do they also let him take the blame for the local election results and then get rid of him?

    Of course, the two possibilities may not be mutually exclusive. Last year's restrictions dragged on until July.

    Hidden in that SAGE advice is a hint that these restrictions will be needed for "winter" - so into March we go
    Given big O is 16x more transmissible, surely it isn't going to take over 3 months to get through society?
    If we go into lockdown, it'll take longer.

    Yay.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    New polling for the Sunday Times finds 60% of voters oppose a ban on households mixing at Christmas and 58% oppose closing pubs and restaurants.
    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1472274950237175819?s=20

    However most voters do back negative tests and vaxports for hospitality venues

    So, what you're saying is that most of the Tory Party and most of the population doesn't want a repeat of the 'lock everyone up for months strategy' that SAGE and the NHS bosses are screaming for?

    The reaction when the Prime Minister gives in to the scientists and gives them everything they've asked for, in both Parliament and the country, is going to be quite something.
    I think it could break the Tory party in two
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875

    Right.

    Vital question - what kind of biscuits for the panic?

    We can brew the tea on the engine of @HYUFD's Covenanter - no BV, sadly....

    I'll plump for Jammy dodgers, Hobnobs, or a dark chocolate Choco Leibniz.
    Biscuits, plain, armed forces for the use of. I once wandered by accident into one of the 1970s regional stores for food to be used after the bomb dropped - an old airfield on which something else was going on. When I walked into a Nissen hut it was full of plastic boxes like giant ice cream cartons full of those biscuits. I wonder if they ever got eaten ...
  • fox327fox327 Posts: 339

    Turns on Sky News and it is full of end of the world is nigh.

    Boris won't be long now until he announces new restrictions.

    The Sky News website reports "Scientists have repeatedly stressed hospitalisation numbers are the key factor in deciding what COVID measures to introduce."

    The number of COVID patients in hospital has hardly changed and is well below 10,000. COVID deaths are still falling. It is starting to look as if the current facts about NHS COVID admissions and deaths do not matter to the government's scientific experts, or the reports from South Africa, only case numbers - and even cases are reduced from yesterday. I do not see a case for a lockdown at the moment.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    New polling for the Sunday Times finds 60% of voters oppose a ban on households mixing at Christmas and 58% oppose closing pubs and restaurants.
    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1472274950237175819?s=20

    However most voters do back negative tests and vaxports for hospitality venues

    So, what you're saying is that most of the Tory Party and most of the population doesn't want a repeat of the 'lock everyone up for months strategy' that SAGE and the NHS bosses are screaming for?

    The reaction when the Prime Minister gives in to the scientists and gives them everything they've asked for, in both Parliament and the country, is going to be quite something.
    Indeed, it would lead to a VONC in the PM from Tory MPs in a week and public disturbance on those numbers
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 950
    HYUFD said:

    Well never fear, if we do go to another lockdown at least we can speculate on the earth shattering prospect of Cheltenham and Guildford going LD at the next general election to keep us going through the dark nights alone

    Quite right, young HY. Those and quite a lot more. Good, innit?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    Biden to deliver speech on Tuesday to address Omicron and to issue a "stark warning" of what winter will look like for those who remain unvaccinated - NBC

    Too late for antivaxxers.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    HYUFD said:

    Well never fear, if we do go to another lockdown at least we can speculate on the earth shattering prospect of Cheltenham and Guildford going LD at the next general election to keep us going through the dark nights alone

    That post is going to look a lot less droll, when it happens. You just have no idea how irrevocably you lot have lost the shire tory vote. I can promise you NS was not all about a moment's pique over a Christmas party or two.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869
    fox327 said:

    Turns on Sky News and it is full of end of the world is nigh.

    Boris won't be long now until he announces new restrictions.

    The Sky News website reports "Scientists have repeatedly stressed hospitalisation numbers are the key factor in deciding what COVID measures to introduce."

    The number of COVID patients in hospital has hardly changed and is well below 10,000. COVID deaths are still falling. It is starting to look as if the current facts about NHS COVID admissions and deaths do not matter to the government's scientific experts, or the reports from South Africa, only case numbers - and even cases are reduced from yesterday. I do not see a case for a lockdown at the moment.
    The difficulty is that waiting for deaths or even admissions to rise is too late for lockdown to work.

    The worst option is to lockdown too late for it work, taking an unnecessary hit both ways.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472
    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    New polling for the Sunday Times finds 60% of voters oppose a ban on households mixing at Christmas and 58% oppose closing pubs and restaurants.
    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1472274950237175819?s=20

    However most voters do back negative tests and vaxports for hospitality venues

    So, what you're saying is that most of the Tory Party and most of the population doesn't want a repeat of the 'lock everyone up for months strategy' that SAGE and the NHS bosses are screaming for?

    The reaction when the Prime Minister gives in to the scientists and gives them everything they've asked for, in both Parliament and the country, is going to be quite something.
    I think it could break the Tory party in two
    I doubt it, there's not a lot of appetite for another lockdown save for a few true believers like Hunt.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869
    Rose is very sweet and a great dancer, but surely 1.05 is too short for the final. I have laid a bit.
  • Frosty has resigned, lol so much for in Frost we trust
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,126
    Mail claiming Lord Frost has resigned.

    https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1472288549584125953
  • Right.

    Vital question - what kind of biscuits for the panic?

    We can brew the tea on the engine of @HYUFD's Covenanter - no BV, sadly....

    I'll plump for Jammy dodgers, Hobnobs, or a dark chocolate Choco Leibniz.
    Simmers' Abernethy biscuits for me.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,706
    Frosty the Go Man!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited December 2021
    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Well never fear, if we do go to another lockdown at least we can speculate on the earth shattering prospect of Cheltenham and Guildford going LD at the next general election to keep us going through the dark nights alone

    That post is going to look a lot less droll, when it happens. You just have no idea how irrevocably you lot have lost the shire tory vote. I can promise you NS was not all about a moment's pique over a Christmas party or two.
    We haven't, the rural Tory vote will be back at the next general election if the Tories do not push through more and more lockdowns (in which case it would go RefUK) this was a by election protest vote over partygate. Though the suburban and commuter belt Tory vote will be more of a challenge to win back from the LDs and Labour.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    Has Boris told Frost they plan on deploying the NI nuclear option?
  • Guildford is definitely lost and so is Winchester.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,673
    dr_spyn said:
    :D lol.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,385
    Frost going is surely it for for BoJo?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,617
    Foxy said:

    fox327 said:

    Turns on Sky News and it is full of end of the world is nigh.

    Boris won't be long now until he announces new restrictions.

    The Sky News website reports "Scientists have repeatedly stressed hospitalisation numbers are the key factor in deciding what COVID measures to introduce."

    The number of COVID patients in hospital has hardly changed and is well below 10,000. COVID deaths are still falling. It is starting to look as if the current facts about NHS COVID admissions and deaths do not matter to the government's scientific experts, or the reports from South Africa, only case numbers - and even cases are reduced from yesterday. I do not see a case for a lockdown at the moment.
    The difficulty is that waiting for deaths or even admissions to rise is too late for lockdown to work.

    The worst option is to lockdown too late for it work, taking an unnecessary hit both ways.
    Do we trust Boris Johnson not to pick the worst possible course of action?

    Hmmmm...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    dr_spyn said:
    A bad loss for Boris
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,617
    HYUFD said:

    dr_spyn said:
    A bad loss for Boris
    It's just a flesh wound!
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,706
    edited December 2021
    HYUFD said:

    dr_spyn said:
    A bad loss for Boris
    Perception-wise, sure. But not talent-wise.

    Frost was the most dismal of a not exactly stellar Cabinet, and I include Priti Patel and Dominic Raab in that. An overpromoted Scotch whisky salesman.
  • But I thought Brexit was going so well?
  • I'm rather careful about predicting LD seats as they undershot expectations in 2017 and 2019 although I think aiming to gain about 20 seats from the Tories on this list and hold Chesham and Amersham is a realistic aim for the LDs even if they are unlikely to gain more than 10-12 when the push comes to the shove.

    Arguably Wantage near the bottom of the list is a better prospect (depending on boundary changes) than some further up as there is still a decent Labour vote to squeeze as well as an extremely strong local councillor base.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,385
    HYUFD said:

    New polling for the Sunday Times finds 60% of voters oppose a ban on households mixing at Christmas and 58% oppose closing pubs and restaurants.
    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1472274950237175819?s=20

    However most voters do back negative tests and vaxports for hospitality venues

    Makes sense - the societal risk is abstract, and for most people the risk to them and their families is effectively 0.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    If even the Brexit loons can no longer stomach BoZo...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    Truss had her chance to be first, and didn't take it.

    ROFLMAO
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Well never fear, if we do go to another lockdown at least we can speculate on the earth shattering prospect of Cheltenham and Guildford going LD at the next general election to keep us going through the dark nights alone

    That post is going to look a lot less droll, when it happens. You just have no idea how irrevocably you lot have lost the shire tory vote. I can promise you NS was not all about a moment's pique over a Christmas party or two.
    We haven't, the rural Tory vote will be back at the next general election if the Tories do not push though more and more lockdowns (in which case it would go RefUK) this was a protest vote over partygate. Though the suburban and commuter belt Tory vote will be more of a challenge.
    "People say Peter Mandelson is only interested in politics, but that overstates the breadth of his interests. He is only interested in Labour party poilitics."

    "People say HYUFD is only interested in Tory party politics, but that overstates the breadth of his interests. He is only interested in Epping Forest Tory party poilitics."

    I can absolutely 100% guarantee you the rural tory vote won't be back. It will vote LD or stay home.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,673

    Frosty has resigned, lol so much for in Frost we trust

    Thoughts with Phil T.
    +1 condolences
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    I am wondering what is the worst time for Boris to announce new restrictions so I can plan...day before Christmas Eve?
  • Frosty has resigned, lol so much for in Frost we trust

    Thoughts with Phil T.
    +1 condolences
    Phil T has already factored this into his calculations. Frost is useless so getting rid is, and always has been, the best thing to do. Also, he doesn't care if anyone dies or anything like that. Robot boy is good at adding up.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,866
    Take that Exeter.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    The concept of Brexit ministers going from gung-ho to "this is tricky" to "I must resign out of principle" was described by @rafaelbehr here: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/08/dominic-raab-britain-island-ignorance-brexit-secretary
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472
    Frost resigning is a huge body blow for Boris. The 100 MPs have a lot of crossover with hard-line Brexit supporters. If Frost no longer has confidence in Boris then I can't see how Boris survives. He's now relying on the Hunt supporting wing of the party, the broadly remainer, lockdown supporting faction. That's already a small number and now they've got to back Boris instead of their own man which will thin them out further.

    The end of Boris is close now.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    There was no reason for Frost to stay.

    Brexit is done...
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,920

    dr_spyn said:
    :D lol.
    I imagine this relates to the report that Britain is accepting the ECJ are "temporary" arbiter.
  • I am wondering what is the worst time for Boris to announce new restrictions so I can plan...day before Christmas Eve?

    You already know the answer and so does your PhD supervisor. I'm waiting for you to tell me what to do. Just waiting for that prediction so I know whether to get the bog rolls in..
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,866
    Sunak has a choice. Either resign or keep the keys to the treasury.

    Resigning makes him prohibitive favourite for the job I think.
  • Well one thing is for certain, politics (still) certainly isn't boring.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited December 2021
    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Well never fear, if we do go to another lockdown at least we can speculate on the earth shattering prospect of Cheltenham and Guildford going LD at the next general election to keep us going through the dark nights alone

    That post is going to look a lot less droll, when it happens. You just have no idea how irrevocably you lot have lost the shire tory vote. I can promise you NS was not all about a moment's pique over a Christmas party or two.
    We haven't, the rural Tory vote will be back at the next general election if the Tories do not push though more and more lockdowns (in which case it would go RefUK) this was a protest vote over partygate. Though the suburban and commuter belt Tory vote will be more of a challenge.
    "People say Peter Mandelson is only interested in politics, but that overstates the breadth of his interests. He is only interested in Labour party poilitics."

    "People say HYUFD is only interested in Tory party politics, but that overstates the breadth of his interests. He is only interested in Epping Forest Tory party poilitics."

    I can absolutely 100% guarantee you the rural tory vote won't be back. It will vote LD or stay home.
    That is rubbish, if that was the case the LDs would be polling 30%+ in general election polls not just 10% and the Tories would be polling under 20%.

    North Shropshire was a by election protest vote that is it. If the LDs do gain Tory seats at the next general election they will be in mainly Remain voting parts of London and cities and towns in the South as OGH's chart shows not in Leave voting rural areas
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,673
    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Well never fear, if we do go to another lockdown at least we can speculate on the earth shattering prospect of Cheltenham and Guildford going LD at the next general election to keep us going through the dark nights alone

    That post is going to look a lot less droll, when it happens. You just have no idea how irrevocably you lot have lost the shire tory vote. I can promise you NS was not all about a moment's pique over a Christmas party or two.
    We haven't, the rural Tory vote will be back at the next general election if the Tories do not push though more and more lockdowns (in which case it would go RefUK) this was a protest vote over partygate. Though the suburban and commuter belt Tory vote will be more of a challenge.
    "People say Peter Mandelson is only interested in politics, but that overstates the breadth of his interests. He is only interested in Labour party poilitics."

    "People say HYUFD is only interested in Tory party politics, but that overstates the breadth of his interests. He is only interested in Epping Forest Tory party poilitics."

    I can absolutely 100% guarantee you the rural tory vote won't be back. It will vote LD or stay home.
    That is rubbish, if that was the case the LDs would be polling 30%+ not just 10% and the Tories would be polling under 20%.

    North Shropshire was a by election protest vote that is it. If the LDs do gain Tory seats at the next general election they will be in mainly Remain voting parts of London and cities and towns in the South as OGH's chart shows
    Give it time lad
  • dr_spyn said:
    :D lol.
    I imagine this relates to the report that Britain is accepting the ECJ are "temporary" arbiter.
    If this is Boris changing tack to defuse the EU as an issue and will accept the deal on the table for NI then I for one will be pleased

    It will be interesting to see how this evolves
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    Here is the story.....

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10324429/Brexit-minister-Lord-Frost-walks-Boris.html

    Its been spun as general pissed off with everything the government is doing.
  • So has Frost quit because the PM refuses to let him fix the shit deal negotiated in error by the idiot Frost?

    Or because the PM hasn't a fucking clue what any of it means and keeps saying "renegotiate", "trigger Article 16" etc as if that would do anything good?

    Either way, pity he isn't in the commons. His resignation speech could have been interesting...
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,617

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Well never fear, if we do go to another lockdown at least we can speculate on the earth shattering prospect of Cheltenham and Guildford going LD at the next general election to keep us going through the dark nights alone

    That post is going to look a lot less droll, when it happens. You just have no idea how irrevocably you lot have lost the shire tory vote. I can promise you NS was not all about a moment's pique over a Christmas party or two.
    We haven't, the rural Tory vote will be back at the next general election if the Tories do not push though more and more lockdowns (in which case it would go RefUK) this was a protest vote over partygate. Though the suburban and commuter belt Tory vote will be more of a challenge.
    "People say Peter Mandelson is only interested in politics, but that overstates the breadth of his interests. He is only interested in Labour party poilitics."

    "People say HYUFD is only interested in Tory party politics, but that overstates the breadth of his interests. He is only interested in Epping Forest Tory party poilitics."

    I can absolutely 100% guarantee you the rural tory vote won't be back. It will vote LD or stay home.
    That is rubbish, if that was the case the LDs would be polling 30%+ not just 10% and the Tories would be polling under 20%.

    North Shropshire was a by election protest vote that is it. If the LDs do gain Tory seats at the next general election they will be in mainly Remain voting parts of London and cities and towns in the South as OGH's chart shows
    Give it time lad
    Sorry to come over all Ministry of the Bleedin' Obvious (well, I'm not really,) but there is (probably) a long time to go to the next election. It's a bit early for these sorts of predictions.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,858

    Right.

    Vital question - what kind of biscuits for the panic?

    We can brew the tea on the engine of @HYUFD's Covenanter - no BV, sadly....

    I'll plump for Jammy dodgers, Hobnobs, or a dark chocolate Choco Leibniz.
    I've just had a dark chocolate Choco Leibniz. Yum.
  • Well one thing is for certain, politics (still) certainly isn't boring.

    Franny U. Please can you give me your estimate on hospitalisations etc. You are so good at guessing everything, I want to know in advance so I can tell what to do.

    I come on this site to read you, Max and Philly T. What's going to happen?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    Confirmed: Brexit minister Lord Frost will resign from the government at end of year (as per report in @MailOnline). According to a colleague: Frost handed his resignation to @BorisJohnson “earlier this month after opposing the Plan B covid measures in cabinet”. MTF
    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1472295047718711299
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 1,656
    Seems like the government is on the verge of collapsing tbh.

    The frost resignation surely part of something wider?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472
    Alistair said:

    Sunak has a choice. Either resign or keep the keys to the treasury.

    Resigning makes him prohibitive favourite for the job I think.

    I think he'd have to resign after whatever meeting Boris tries to push lockdown through in terms of timing. He'd immediately trigger a VONC in Boris, the numbers already exist and he'd become the presumptive anti-lockdown candidate.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,255
    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Well never fear, if we do go to another lockdown at least we can speculate on the earth shattering prospect of Cheltenham and Guildford going LD at the next general election to keep us going through the dark nights alone

    That post is going to look a lot less droll, when it happens. You just have no idea how irrevocably you lot have lost the shire tory vote. I can promise you NS was not all about a moment's pique over a Christmas party or two.
    We haven't, the rural Tory vote will be back at the next general election if the Tories do not push though more and more lockdowns (in which case it would go RefUK) this was a protest vote over partygate. Though the suburban and commuter belt Tory vote will be more of a challenge.
    "People say Peter Mandelson is only interested in politics, but that overstates the breadth of his interests. He is only interested in Labour party poilitics."

    "People say HYUFD is only interested in Tory party politics, but that overstates the breadth of his interests. He is only interested in Epping Forest Tory party poilitics."

    I can absolutely 100% guarantee you the rural tory vote won't be back. It will vote LD or stay home.
    That is rubbish, if that was the case the LDs would be polling 30%+ in general election polls not just 10% and the Tories would be polling under 20%.

    North Shropshire was a by election protest vote that is it. If the LDs do gain Tory seats at the next general election they will be in mainly Remain voting parts of London and cities and towns in the South as OGH's chart shows
    Well, all that chart shows is where the Lib Dems got closest (relatively speaking) last time out. The next Lib Dem campaign is likely to look considerably different from the last one, and their appeal will shift accordingly.
  • @HYUFD seems to have gone for arrogance and denial now, very similar to what some Labour supporters did during/after GE19.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472

    So has Frost quit because the PM refuses to let him fix the shit deal negotiated in error by the idiot Frost?

    Or because the PM hasn't a fucking clue what any of it means and keeps saying "renegotiate", "trigger Article 16" etc as if that would do anything good?

    Either way, pity he isn't in the commons. His resignation speech could have been interesting...

    Apparently related to opposing plan b.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    Stage 4 ... already

    https://mobile.twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1472288549584125953 https://twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/1471743773503860739

    @wildernessyrs A few stages yet to go.
    1. "can't dump PM in middle of crisis, but ..."
    2. New Year Relaunch! (preceded by reshuffle speculation)
    3. Relaunch blows up on launchpad
    4. Big name cabinet flounce
    5. Fruitcake backbencher -> Reform?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 13,124

    HYUFD said:

    dr_spyn said:
    A bad loss for Boris
    Perception-wise, sure. But not talent-wise.

    Frost was the most dismal of a not exactly stellar Cabinet, and I include Priti Patel and Dominic Raab in that. An overpromoted Scotch whisky salesman.
    David Frost is an interesting blend of careerist and fanatic. Did he flee the sinking HMS Boris or is he heading into the jungle to fight on for the Revolution?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    Lord Frost's resignation exemplifies a pattern among all the loud sovereignty purists: upon realising that there are difficult trade-offs inherent in their own choices, they pack their bags and leave, blaming others for the self-inflicted mess.
    https://twitter.com/AntonSpisak/status/1472295808066281477
  • Frosty has resigned, lol so much for in Frost we trust

    In God we Truss, surely?
  • Is Philip working out what lines to take?
  • So, Lord Frost has resigned because he disagrees with policy?

    I presume then that he fully agreed with Brexit in spite of his views in his younger days?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Well never fear, if we do go to another lockdown at least we can speculate on the earth shattering prospect of Cheltenham and Guildford going LD at the next general election to keep us going through the dark nights alone

    That post is going to look a lot less droll, when it happens. You just have no idea how irrevocably you lot have lost the shire tory vote. I can promise you NS was not all about a moment's pique over a Christmas party or two.
    We haven't, the rural Tory vote will be back at the next general election if the Tories do not push though more and more lockdowns (in which case it would go RefUK) this was a protest vote over partygate. Though the suburban and commuter belt Tory vote will be more of a challenge.
    "People say Peter Mandelson is only interested in politics, but that overstates the breadth of his interests. He is only interested in Labour party poilitics."

    "People say HYUFD is only interested in Tory party politics, but that overstates the breadth of his interests. He is only interested in Epping Forest Tory party poilitics."

    I can absolutely 100% guarantee you the rural tory vote won't be back. It will vote LD or stay home.
    That is rubbish, if that was the case the LDs would be polling 30%+ in general election polls not just 10% and the Tories would be polling under 20%.

    North Shropshire was a by election protest vote that is it. If the LDs do gain Tory seats at the next general election they will be in mainly Remain voting parts of London and cities and towns in the South as OGH's chart shows not in Leave voting rural areas
    Never mind opinion polling, look at actual outcomes, and bear in mind that polling is done by online panels these days. Shire tories don't do online panels, they just vote, or not.You had con maj 80 and you didn't use it to repeal the Hunting Act. Sure, you never said you were going to, and there were stacks of reasons not to. Equally, we never said we would vote for you in 2023...
  • CookieCookie Posts: 5,153
    The normal pattern is to wait until the wave is peaking and then announce lockdown. Then you can look as if what you're doing has worked.
    Jan 3rd it is then.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472
    If it's true and Frost has resigned because of Plan B that closes down lockdown options even further for Boris. He's far too weak to now to push the lockdown past the party, the failure of the SAGE models post July has made Tory MPs very sceptical about anything they get told by the government on predictions of catastrophe so they can't scaremonger their way out of it either.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 47,992
    edited December 2021

    So has Frost quit because the PM refuses to let him fix the shit deal negotiated in error by the idiot Frost?

    Or because the PM hasn't a fucking clue what any of it means and keeps saying "renegotiate", "trigger Article 16" etc as if that would do anything good?

    Either way, pity he isn't in the commons. His resignation speech could have been interesting...

    Seems it is not EU related but objection to plan b, tax rises and the green agenda

    Another conservative out of touch with public oponion
  • TimSTimS Posts: 993
    Frost seems to have resigned based on a checklist of lazy right wing tropes. He’s become more Redwood than Redwood.

    It actually makes me question my lockdown-scepticism.

    If Tory rebellion against Boris is based on Frost’s bugbears then they are buggered. It’s like the people who decided Ed Miliband wasn’t left wing enough.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    Cookie said:

    The normal pattern is to wait until the wave is peaking and then announce lockdown. Then you can look as if what you're doing has worked.
    Jan 3rd it is then.

    That has been my call for a couple of weeks, but now wondering if Boris can really screw himself by announcing these restrictions before Christmas, but not coming into force for a week.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 1,330
    MaxPB said:

    So has Frost quit because the PM refuses to let him fix the shit deal negotiated in error by the idiot Frost?

    Or because the PM hasn't a fucking clue what any of it means and keeps saying "renegotiate", "trigger Article 16" etc as if that would do anything good?

    Either way, pity he isn't in the commons. His resignation speech could have been interesting...

    Apparently related to opposing plan b.
    Given his reasons; I would speculate that it is somewhat related to the Carrie/No.10 problems.


  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    🚨 | NEW: Piers Corbyn;

    "We've got to hammer to death those scum, those scum who have decided to go ahead with introducing new fascism."

    "If your MP is one of them, go to their offices, and, well, I'd recommend burning them down."

    https://t.co/QJ8S0r88v3

    How many weeks is it since an MP was murdered?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 368
    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Well never fear, if we do go to another lockdown at least we can speculate on the earth shattering prospect of Cheltenham and Guildford going LD at the next general election to keep us going through the dark nights alone

    That post is going to look a lot less droll, when it happens. You just have no idea how irrevocably you lot have lost the shire tory vote. I can promise you NS was not all about a moment's pique over a Christmas party or two.
    We haven't, the rural Tory vote will be back at the next general election if the Tories do not push though more and more lockdowns (in which case it would go RefUK) this was a protest vote over partygate. Though the suburban and commuter belt Tory vote will be more of a challenge.
    "People say Peter Mandelson is only interested in politics, but that overstates the breadth of his interests. He is only interested in Labour party poilitics."

    "People say HYUFD is only interested in Tory party politics, but that overstates the breadth of his interests. He is only interested in Epping Forest Tory party poilitics."

    I can absolutely 100% guarantee you the rural tory vote won't be back. It will vote LD or stay home.
    That is rubbish, if that was the case the LDs would be polling 30%+ in general election polls not just 10% and the Tories would be polling under 20%.

    North Shropshire was a by election protest vote that is it. If the LDs do gain Tory seats at the next general election they will be in mainly Remain voting parts of London and cities and towns in the South as OGH's chart shows not in Leave voting rural areas
    Never mind opinion polling, look at actual outcomes, and bear in mind that polling is done by online panels these days. Shire tories don't do online panels, they just vote, or not.You had con maj 80 and you didn't use it to repeal the Hunting Act. Sure, you never said you were going to, and there were stacks of reasons not to. Equally, we never said we would vote for you in 2023...
    Isn’t this all a bit of a crossover - usually on here and elsewhere people need to be reminded that they need to remember to see things as they are rather than how they want it to be politically, whereas right now we are basing future politics where it is now rather than where it will be - so if you believe the shires are lost to the Tories then as it is then yes - probably true - but if that’s likely then it won’t be the case for long potentially as the Tories will make a big change so how it is now will not be the same leader etc next election.

    So, sorry for the slightly drunken drivel, people are projecting a situation that is bad for the Tories but by people projecting a situation that’s bad for the Tories it increases the chances that the Tories will react that will then reduce that being the outcome.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,651
    HYUFD said:


    That is rubbish, if that was the case the LDs would be polling 30%+ in general election polls not just 10% and the Tories would be polling under 20%.

    North Shropshire was a by election protest vote that is it. If the LDs do gain Tory seats at the next general election they will be in mainly Remain voting parts of London and cities and towns in the South as OGH's chart shows not in Leave voting rural areas

    You're not wrong of course. I don't expect North Shropshire to be an easy LD hold at the next GE - after all, Christchurch was regained by Christopher Chope in 1997 (though Newbury wasn't).

    I'm not sure all the "targets" in OGH's list are as in-play as the numbers suggest. I mentioned earlier the County Council seats in Elmbridge had remained solidly Conservative this year and I think there are better LD prospects in Surrey for example.

    It's back to the usual suspects - Cheltenham, St Ives, Winchester and the like. I can see the LD journey to 20-25 seats - beyond that and I look at the likes of Taunton Deane, Wantage and Chippenham. Are they potential gains? Clearly, on the North Shropshire numbers, very much so but nobody expects either the Spanish Inquisition or a LD poll swing mirroring North Shropshire.

    To win Wantage, I think you'd need to see the Conservative vote share down to 40% or less and the Labour vote squeezed down to sub 10% - conceivable?
  • Scott_xP said:

    Confirmed: Brexit minister Lord Frost will resign from the government at end of year (as per report in @MailOnline). According to a colleague: Frost handed his resignation to @BorisJohnson “earlier this month after opposing the Plan B covid measures in cabinet”. MTF
    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1472295047718711299

    Here's a question-

    If Frosty is that unimpressed with the direction of government, why the gap between the sending letter and his actual resignation?

    Shouldn't he be out ASAP?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,617
    MaxPB said:

    If it's true and Frost has resigned because of Plan B that closes down lockdown options even further for Boris. He's far too weak to now to push the lockdown past the party, the failure of the SAGE models post July has made Tory MPs very sceptical about anything they get told by the government on predictions of catastrophe so they can't scaremonger their way out of it either.

    All the same, Govt payroll + Tory lockdown hawks + Labour easily gives him the votes to lock us all up again.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 1,330
    This Frost departure is an absolutely major story. Frost owes his political career, and position in general to Johnson. Brexit is all Frosts work. There is no worse departure, everyone else in the cabinet is disposable. I would say that it is all over for Johnson.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    A TV programme worth watching — Gyles Brandreth documentary about Charles Dickens on Five atm.
This discussion has been closed.