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Some of the CON seats that could fall on a 10% swing to the LDs – politicalbetting.com

In the previous header Quincel looked at the possibility of the Domonic Raab losing his seat if the LDs do well in the seats where they are competitive.
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Via @thesundaytimes
Held hostage by thr antivaxxers....that will go down worse than yet another #10 zoom quiz.
https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1472279344940789762?t=yFtm2rBTzs8HgT_xVeOW4Q&s=19
Boris won't be long now until he announces new restrictions.
Of course, the two possibilities may not be mutually exclusive. The last major battery of restrictions started before Christmas but didn't unwind fully until the following July.
Vital question - what kind of biscuits for the panic?
We can brew the tea on the engine of @HYUFD's Covenanter - no BV, sadly....
https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1472274950237175819?s=20
However most voters do back negative tests and vaxports for hospitality venues
The reaction when the Prime Minister gives in to the scientists and gives them everything they've asked for, in both Parliament and the country, is going to be quite something.
Yay.
The number of COVID patients in hospital has hardly changed and is well below 10,000. COVID deaths are still falling. It is starting to look as if the current facts about NHS COVID admissions and deaths do not matter to the government's scientific experts, or the reports from South Africa, only case numbers - and even cases are reduced from yesterday. I do not see a case for a lockdown at the moment.
Too late for antivaxxers.
The worst option is to lockdown too late for it work, taking an unnecessary hit both ways.
@Philip_Thompson?
https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1472288549584125953
Hmmmm...
Frost was the most dismal of a not exactly stellar Cabinet, and I include Priti Patel and Dominic Raab in that. An overpromoted Scotch whisky salesman.
Arguably Wantage near the bottom of the list is a better prospect (depending on boundary changes) than some further up as there is still a decent Labour vote to squeeze as well as an extremely strong local councillor base.
ROFLMAO
"People say HYUFD is only interested in Tory party politics, but that overstates the breadth of his interests. He is only interested in Epping Forest Tory party poilitics."
I can absolutely 100% guarantee you the rural tory vote won't be back. It will vote LD or stay home.
The end of Boris is close now.
Brexit is done...
That sort of thing can hurt a chap's feelings.
Resigning makes him prohibitive favourite for the job I think.
North Shropshire was a by election protest vote that is it. If the LDs do gain Tory seats at the next general election they will be in mainly Remain voting parts of London and cities and towns in the South as OGH's chart shows not in Leave voting rural areas
It will be interesting to see how this evolves
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10324429/Brexit-minister-Lord-Frost-walks-Boris.html
Its been spun as general pissed off with everything the government is doing.
Or because the PM hasn't a fucking clue what any of it means and keeps saying "renegotiate", "trigger Article 16" etc as if that would do anything good?
Either way, pity he isn't in the commons. His resignation speech could have been interesting...
I come on this site to read you, Max and Philly T. What's going to happen?
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1472295047718711299
The frost resignation surely part of something wider?
https://mobile.twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1472288549584125953 https://twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/1471743773503860739
@wildernessyrs A few stages yet to go.
1. "can't dump PM in middle of crisis, but ..."
2. New Year Relaunch! (preceded by reshuffle speculation)
3. Relaunch blows up on launchpad
4. Big name cabinet flounce
5. Fruitcake backbencher -> Reform?
https://twitter.com/AntonSpisak/status/1472295808066281477
I presume then that he fully agreed with Brexit in spite of his views in his younger days?
Jan 3rd it is then.
Another conservative out of touch with public oponion
It actually makes me question my lockdown-scepticism.
If Tory rebellion against Boris is based on Frost’s bugbears then they are buggered. It’s like the people who decided Ed Miliband wasn’t left wing enough.
"We've got to hammer to death those scum, those scum who have decided to go ahead with introducing new fascism."
"If your MP is one of them, go to their offices, and, well, I'd recommend burning them down."
https://t.co/QJ8S0r88v3
How many weeks is it since an MP was murdered?
So, sorry for the slightly drunken drivel, people are projecting a situation that is bad for the Tories but by people projecting a situation that’s bad for the Tories it increases the chances that the Tories will react that will then reduce that being the outcome.
I'm not sure all the "targets" in OGH's list are as in-play as the numbers suggest. I mentioned earlier the County Council seats in Elmbridge had remained solidly Conservative this year and I think there are better LD prospects in Surrey for example.
It's back to the usual suspects - Cheltenham, St Ives, Winchester and the like. I can see the LD journey to 20-25 seats - beyond that and I look at the likes of Taunton Deane, Wantage and Chippenham. Are they potential gains? Clearly, on the North Shropshire numbers, very much so but nobody expects either the Spanish Inquisition or a LD poll swing mirroring North Shropshire.
To win Wantage, I think you'd need to see the Conservative vote share down to 40% or less and the Labour vote squeezed down to sub 10% - conceivable?
If Frosty is that unimpressed with the direction of government, why the gap between the sending letter and his actual resignation?
Shouldn't he be out ASAP?