Looks like it could be a better than expected result for Boris.
Tories scrape home, he avoids a VONC and there is a progressive alliance civil war
That Labour has decided your leader is such a liability that they are better off leaving him to damage the brand still further, is hardly a vote of confidence.
Hardly,
If Boris has become a liability, it is better for the Tories to leave him in place to carry the can for awkward economic decisions in 2022 and 2023.
A new leader, unsullied by the difficult economic decisions, taking office 6 months to a year before GE 2024 is ideal for the Tories.
My guess is that could well be Truss.
I don't often agree with you (Drakeford's travails notwithstanding), but yes, you are bob-on.
And I thought we were besties ... even though you do hobnob with Welsh Tories in the Vale of Glamorgan rather more than I would care to.
Drakeford continues to surprise. Against very strong competition, the closure of the nightclubs on 27th Dec is one of the most nonsensical decisions of the pandemic yet.
As I am Puritan, of course I believe that the nightclubs should be closed immediately.
Of course we are besties.
I am still busy trying to think of ways we can supplement the diminutive Alun's diminutive salary. Any ideas?
As for Drakey he is transforming into the old lady in the Salem painting.
Is it hard to get into a count - one of us here should try and head to the next by-election and report what's going on without the absolute codswallop most journos seem to come up with when they're trying to mark time.
I was there earlier today but not sure how you get into the count.
I'd laugh so hard if Labour do shock everyone and win. Since I keep trading by laying Tories/LDs, I've got an increasingly big green next to Labour now.
There is zero chance of Labour winning. Clearly many/most of their supporters have switched to the LDs this time.
I hope Lib Dems narrowly pull it off and it would be good if there's a by election in e.g. Shrewsbury in the near future where tactical voting could be reciprocated in favour of Labour.
I think the Lib Dems were always going to struggle to push Labour below 10% whether Labour campaigned or not.
I apologise if I'm boring people here, but if I was a Salopian I would have voted Tory in 2019 and Lib Dem tonight, because the Lib Dems voted against Plan B. They're bonkers in many other respects, but to be honest that's true of all parties. I wouldn't vote Labour, because Labour voted in favour of Plan B, and indeed have been enthusiastically in favour of any restrictions on freedom since the pandemic started. From a Tory protest point of view the two are not interchangeable.
Is it hard to get into a count - one of us here should try and head to the next by-election and report what's going on without the absolute codswallop most journos seem to come up with when they're trying to mark time.
I was there earlier today but not sure how you get into the count.
Stand as a candidate?
You might win though. Then you've got at least 4 years of council meetings to show up to.
I stand by this, and think the sudden swings in the market back me up!
Don’t have to open boxes though? Those brilliant exit polls that predict general elections, is before boxes open, though last time they got sample group to repeat on slips what the just done, but you don’t need to go that far for the parties to have feel how it’s gone in certain places they need? Obviously this is my first bet and experience of this, but in bex and sid that same gut feel from the party workers knew the result at 2200 didn’t it?
You can't do a one-off exit poll, the method works by running it in (mostly) the same places each election and comparing the shift in vote to extrapolate the outcome. So for by-elections you didn't have the data from last time (since the national exit poll doesn't use enough polling stations to give good data for any individual seat).
In theory party activists could get a sense from the campaign, but my view is that they are generally too emotionally involved and just not good enough at judging the situation from their anecdotal experience.
Thanks for that insight. 👍🏻
I am still confident I will become the first Gen Z pm, but I always imagined I wouldn’t be shocked by any of my campaign vote counts, I’d know sure enough on the day before counting began.
Another thing is the sizeable number of mad anti-vaxxy gammony parties standing, even a few votes lost here and there to these fruitcakes could cost the Tories the seat.
I'm being pedantic here, but there aren't deposits in local elections are there?
No. You need to collect 10 signatures from within the council area though.
At the moment, only two signatures required
Wat you need is a council election on at the same place & time as a westminster one. Then you can be in the hall as a candidate for the council one whilst eyeing up the westminster trays.
You are embarrassing yourself tonght BJO. I am not sure I appreciate the competition.
Actually I think John has a point with this one In last couple of years the Lab to Green switchers in actually elections, right across country not just metropolitan areas, is so massive it’spoint to consider
After Omicron, I reckon the next variant's going to be so transmissible it's doubling time actually doubles backwards into the past.
I hope you have all done Ayahuasca as I advised. It gives the most exquisite perspective
Panicked Human: OMFG we're all going to die
God (in a bored but tolerant voice): And?
Panicked Human: This is the the end of the world!
God (sighing): There are infinite other worlds. Have a beer. Sorry I forgot your name?
Sounds a bit disappointing.
It is fantastic
The obverse of the cruel nihilism is that glimpse into the deep interior life of reality. If the ayahuasca works, and you don't puke too much, you are privy to the cascading beauty of a conscious universe. A Niagara of a trillion tumbling jewels, forever churning and evanescing, and creating - at least in our prismatic sense - the shot rainbow of human souls
Or Tuesday as they call it in Prudhoe.
Fun fact: 98% of PBers don't know how to pronounce Prudhoe.
Alnwick used to trip me up until I visited it for the first time.
Now, how many PBers can pronounce Slaithwaite correctly?
There are some good ones in Fife - Anstruther, Kilconquar and even Kirkcaldy trip people up.
Kirkcudbright.
I raise you Milngavie.
One of my best friends (east coast Scottish as the day is long) as best man to his brother who was marrying a weegie pronounced it as it looks in his speech, to much hooting.
Garioch - short but un-guessable.
And Greenock is a double-bluff - it is not pronounced "Grennock" but as it reads.
Correct, although after living in Greenock for more than four years I'm still not sure about the first syllable of Gourock. It seems to vary from a hard g to something gooey.
If BJO was truly interested in a left wing Government he'd get behind Keir Starmer and or Ed Davey where appropriate but for reasons only known to him he is not.
I will ask again, what is wrong with Keir Starmer's policies and what don't you like?
Lab cling on in Telford 9.4% swing Lab to Con compared to "even Corbyn"
Some dispute about those figures. I make it virtually no swing since May. 0.1% Con to Lab. Nevertheless, with that and Lichfield, the Tories are holding up hugely in that part of the country compared with pretty much everywhere else.
Looks like it could be a better than expected result for Boris.
Tories scrape home, he avoids a VONC and there is a progressive alliance civil war
That Labour has decided your leader is such a liability that they are better off leaving him to damage the brand still further, is hardly a vote of confidence.
Hardly,
If Boris has become a liability, it is better for the Tories to leave him in place to carry the can for awkward economic decisions in 2022 and 2023.
A new leader, unsullied by the difficult economic decisions, taking office 6 months to a year before GE 2024 is ideal for the Tories.
My guess is that could well be Truss.
I don't often agree with you (Drakeford's travails notwithstanding), but yes, you are bob-on.
And I thought we were besties ... even though you do hobnob with Welsh Tories in the Vale of Glamorgan rather more than I would care to.
Drakeford continues to surprise. Against very strong competition, the closure of the nightclubs on 27th Dec is one of the most nonsensical decisions of the pandemic yet.
As I am Puritan, of course I believe that the nightclubs should be closed immediately.
Of course we are besties.
I am still busy trying to think of ways we can supplement the diminutive Alun's diminutive salary. Any ideas?
As for Drakey he is transforming into the old lady in the Salem painting.
I live close to the bleak chapel in which Vosper painted Salem
Drakey is an enigma ... I was amazed at @FrankBooth 's revelation earlier on the thread that Drakey was allowed out wearing shorts.
I'm being pedantic here, but there aren't deposits in local elections are there?
No. You need to collect 10 signatures from within the council area though.
At the moment, only two signatures required
Wat you need is a council election on at the same place & time as a westminster one. Then you can be in the hall as a candidate for the council one whilst eyeing up the westminster trays.
You're saying that as soon as an MP resigns we need a team of PB Opposition Researchers to dig up dirt on a local councillor and force their resignation also?
If BJO was truly interested in a left wing Government he'd get behind Keir Starmer and or Ed Davey where appropriate but for reasons only known to him he is not.
I will ask again, what is wrong with Keir Starmer's policies and what don't you like?
Is it hard to get into a count - one of us here should try and head to the next by-election and report what's going on without the absolute codswallop most journos seem to come up with when they're trying to mark time.
I was there earlier today but not sure how you get into the count.
I'd laugh so hard if Labour do shock everyone and win. Since I keep trading by laying Tories/LDs, I've got an increasingly big green next to Labour now.
There is zero chance of Labour winning. Clearly many/most of their supporters have switched to the LDs this time.
I hope Lib Dems narrowly pull it off and it would be good if there's a by election in e.g. Shrewsbury in the near future where tactical voting could be reciprocated in favour of Labour.
I think the Lib Dems were always going to struggle to push Labour below 10% whether Labour campaigned or not.
I apologise if I'm boring people here, but if I was a Salopian I would have voted Tory in 2019 and Lib Dem tonight, because the Lib Dems voted against Plan B. They're bonkers in many other respects, but to be honest that's true of all parties. I wouldn't vote Labour, because Labour voted in favour of Plan B, and indeed have been enthusiastically in favour of any restrictions on freedom since the pandemic started. From a Tory protest point of view the two are not interchangeable.
However. There isn't a big constituency of voters opposed to Plan B. Let alone cast their vote on the basis.
Looks like it could be a better than expected result for Boris.
Tories scrape home, he avoids a VONC and there is a progressive alliance civil war
That Labour has decided your leader is such a liability that they are better off leaving him to damage the brand still further, is hardly a vote of confidence.
Hardly,
If Boris has become a liability, it is better for the Tories to leave him in place to carry the can for awkward economic decisions in 2022 and 2023.
A new leader, unsullied by the difficult economic decisions, taking office 6 months to a year before GE 2024 is ideal for the Tories.
My guess is that could well be Truss.
I don't often agree with you (Drakeford's travails notwithstanding), but yes, you are bob-on.
And I thought we were besties ... even though you do hobnob with Welsh Tories in the Vale of Glamorgan rather more than I would care to.
Drakeford continues to surprise. Against very strong competition, the closure of the nightclubs on 27th Dec is one of the most nonsensical decisions of the pandemic yet.
As I am Puritan, of course I believe that the nightclubs should be closed immediately.
Of course we are besties.
I am still busy trying to think of ways we can supplement the diminutive Alun's diminutive salary. Any ideas?
As for Drakey he is transforming into the old lady in the Salem painting.
I live close to the bleak chapel in which Vosper painted Salem
Drakey is an enigma ... I was amazed at @FrankBooth 's revelation earlier on the thread that Drakey was allowed out wearing shorts.
In November, if I understood correctly. He might as well have been daubed in woad.
I'd laugh so hard if Labour do shock everyone and win. Since I keep trading by laying Tories/LDs, I've got an increasingly big green next to Labour now.
There is zero chance of Labour winning. Clearly many/most of their supporters have switched to the LDs this time.
I hope Lib Dems narrowly pull it off and it would be good if there's a by election in e.g. Shrewsbury in the near future where tactical voting could be reciprocated in favour of Labour.
I think the Lib Dems were always going to struggle to push Labour below 10% whether Labour campaigned or not.
Why?
Surely such things not in Lib Dem gift but in the Labour voters mind?
Another thing is the sizeable number of mad anti-vaxxy gammony parties standing, even a few votes lost here and there to these fruitcakes could cost the Tories the seat.
Do we know it will be knife-edge? Betting odds and various "well placed source" comments made Chesham look tight on the night, but it wasn't actually close.
I mean, it might well be close, but equally this could yet be several thousand one way or another.
Is it hard to get into a count - one of us here should try and head to the next by-election and report what's going on without the absolute codswallop most journos seem to come up with when they're trying to mark time.
I was there earlier today but not sure how you get into the count.
After Omicron, I reckon the next variant's going to be so transmissible it's doubling time actually doubles backwards into the past.
I hope you have all done Ayahuasca as I advised. It gives the most exquisite perspective
Panicked Human: OMFG we're all going to die
God (in a bored but tolerant voice): And?
Panicked Human: This is the the end of the world!
God (sighing): There are infinite other worlds. Have a beer. Sorry I forgot your name?
Sounds a bit disappointing.
It is fantastic
The obverse of the cruel nihilism is that glimpse into the deep interior life of reality. If the ayahuasca works, and you don't puke too much, you are privy to the cascading beauty of a conscious universe. A Niagara of a trillion tumbling jewels, forever churning and evanescing, and creating - at least in our prismatic sense - the shot rainbow of human souls
Or Tuesday as they call it in Prudhoe.
Fun fact: 98% of PBers don't know how to pronounce Prudhoe.
Alnwick used to trip me up until I visited it for the first time.
Now, how many PBers can pronounce Slaithwaite correctly?
There are some good ones in Fife - Anstruther, Kilconquar and even Kirkcaldy trip people up.
Kirkcudbright.
I raise you Milngavie.
One of my best friends (east coast Scottish as the day is long) as best man to his brother who was marrying a weegie pronounced it as it looks in his speech, to much hooting.
Garioch - short but un-guessable.
And Greenock is a double-bluff - it is not pronounced "Grennock" but as it reads.
Correct, although after living in Greenock for more than four years I'm still not sure about the first syllable of Gourock. It seems to vary from a hard g to something gooey.
I can confidently pronounce Prudhoe, Slaithwaite and Kirkcudbright (Prudder, Slaithwaite and Kirkcoobree), but I always thought Greenock was pronounced Grennock. Every day's a school day.
Similarly, when I livedin Beeston, everyone knew Southwell was pronounced Suthull. But then I played rugby against Southwell, and it turns out in Southwell grey pronounce Southwell as Southwell. Only in Nottingham - where I hope I don't sound pejorative in describing the accent as 'lazy' is it pronounced Suthull.
Is it hard to get into a count - one of us here should try and head to the next by-election and report what's going on without the absolute codswallop most journos seem to come up with when they're trying to mark time.
I was there earlier today but not sure how you get into the count.
Stand as a candidate?
You suggesting a PB whip-round for the deposit ?
PB Raving Irrelevance Party?
That might give the game away. Monster Raving Psephologists ?
Gets worse for SKS the Walsall Lab candidate is disqualified despite winning
Lab picked a Candidate intelligible to stand and seat remains vacant.
Useless nonentity party strikes again
That's embarrassing for Walsall Labour if true. But, in all honesty, what sort of vetting role do you think any party leader or the higher echelons of any party have in the process of verifying the eligibility of local Council election candidates?
You are embarrassing yourself tonght BJO. I am not sure I appreciate the competition.
Actually I think John has a point with this one In last couple of years the Lab to Green switchers in actually elections, right across country not just metropolitan areas, is so massive it’spoint to consider
It all depends on how much Green voters want to see a Conservative Government at the next GE. If they don't maybe they should consider holding their nose and vote Labour or LD.
Gets worse for SKS the Walsall Lab candidate is disqualified despite winning
Lab picked a Candidate intelligible to stand and seat remains vacant.
Useless nonentity party strikes again
Hang on. SKS doesn't pick Council by-election candidates. You'd be the first to scream blue murder if he tried. Nor does he scrutinise their eligibility. A massive cock-up yes. And one which was known about before voting. In the circumstances it's a surprise Labour actually held on. And not a massive surprise there was a huge swing against the half wits.
I can confidently pronounce Prudhoe, Slaithwaite and Kirkcudbright (Prudder, Slaithwaite and Kirkcoobree), but I always thought Greenock was pronounced Grennock. Every day's a school day.
Think that was how one of the blokes who did the classified scores for years pronounced it.
If BJO was truly interested in a left wing Government he'd get behind Keir Starmer and or Ed Davey where appropriate but for reasons only known to him he is not.
I will ask again, what is wrong with Keir Starmer's policies and what don't you like?
Why do you keep asking the same question.
I have answered that about 10 times.
Starmer won as the unity candidate.
He had 10 pledges he has broken them all.
He lied to become leader and has put factional interests above unity.
Last time we discussed this you said you knew his pledges were lies and you are glad he is attacking certain party members.
That makes you and SKS my Political enemy Comrade!
I'd laugh so hard if Labour do shock everyone and win. Since I keep trading by laying Tories/LDs, I've got an increasingly big green next to Labour now.
There is zero chance of Labour winning. Clearly many/most of their supporters have switched to the LDs this time.
I hope Lib Dems narrowly pull it off and it would be good if there's a by election in e.g. Shrewsbury in the near future where tactical voting could be reciprocated in favour of Labour.
I think the Lib Dems were always going to struggle to push Labour below 10% whether Labour campaigned or not.
I apologise if I'm boring people here, but if I was a Salopian I would have voted Tory in 2019 and Lib Dem tonight, because the Lib Dems voted against Plan B. They're bonkers in many other respects, but to be honest that's true of all parties. I wouldn't vote Labour, because Labour voted in favour of Plan B, and indeed have been enthusiastically in favour of any restrictions on freedom since the pandemic started. From a Tory protest point of view the two are not interchangeable.
However. There isn't a big constituency of voters opposed to Plan B. Let alone cast their vote on the basis.
No, fair enough. There's a wider constituency of voters who more generally think the government is being too pro-lockdown. The Lib Dem record would look good to such a constituency - though the LDs make so little of itmost voters wouldn't notice. How big a constituency is the "government is being too heavy handed" bloc? I don't know. It can just be me and the wife though I fully accept it's not a universally held position. The point is though that Lab and LDs aren't interchangeable.
If BJO was truly interested in a left wing Government he'd get behind Keir Starmer and or Ed Davey where appropriate but for reasons only known to him he is not.
I will ask again, what is wrong with Keir Starmer's policies and what don't you like?
Why do you keep asking the same question.
I have answered that about 10 times.
Starmer won as the unity candidate.
He had 10 pledges he has broken them all.
He lied to become leader and has put factional interests above unity.
Last time we discussed this you said you knew his pledges were lies and you are glad he is attacking certain party members.
That makes you and SKS my Political enemy Comrade!
I'd laugh so hard if Labour do shock everyone and win. Since I keep trading by laying Tories/LDs, I've got an increasingly big green next to Labour now.
There is zero chance of Labour winning. Clearly many/most of their supporters have switched to the LDs this time.
I hope Lib Dems narrowly pull it off and it would be good if there's a by election in e.g. Shrewsbury in the near future where tactical voting could be reciprocated in favour of Labour.
I think the Lib Dems were always going to struggle to push Labour below 10% whether Labour campaigned or not.
I apologise if I'm boring people here, but if I was a Salopian I would have voted Tory in 2019 and Lib Dem tonight, because the Lib Dems voted against Plan B. They're bonkers in many other respects, but to be honest that's true of all parties. I wouldn't vote Labour, because Labour voted in favour of Plan B, and indeed have been enthusiastically in favour of any restrictions on freedom since the pandemic started. From a Tory protest point of view the two are not interchangeable.
However. There isn't a big constituency of voters opposed to Plan B. Let alone cast their vote on the basis.
No, fair enough. There's a wider constituency of voters who more generally think the government is being too pro-lockdown. The Lib Dem record would look good to such a constituency - though the LDs make so little of itmost voters wouldn't notice. How big a constituency is the "government is being too heavy handed" bloc? I don't know. It can just be me and the wife though I fully accept it's not a universally held position. The point is though that Lab and LDs aren't interchangeable.
If BJO was truly interested in a left wing Government he'd get behind Keir Starmer and or Ed Davey where appropriate but for reasons only known to him he is not.
I will ask again, what is wrong with Keir Starmer's policies and what don't you like?
Why do you keep asking the same question.
I have answered that about 10 times.
Starmer won as the unity candidate.
He had 10 pledges he has broken them all.
He lied to become leader and has put factional interests above unity.
Last time we discussed this you said you knew his pledges were lies and you are glad he is attacking certain party members.
That makes you and SKS my Political enemy Comrade!
I can confidently pronounce Prudhoe, Slaithwaite and Kirkcudbright (Prudder, Slaithwaite and Kirkcoobree), but I always thought Greenock was pronounced Grennock. Every day's a school day.
Think that was how one of the blokes who did the classified scores for years pronounced it.
Yes it was - and to be honest I don't think I've heard the word 'Greenock' outside of that context. Although I'm sure Greenock in the context of football is a neologism- when I was growing up I'm sure they were plain old 'Morton'.
If BJO was truly interested in a left wing Government he'd get behind Keir Starmer and or Ed Davey where appropriate but for reasons only known to him he is not.
I will ask again, what is wrong with Keir Starmer's policies and what don't you like?
Why do you keep asking the same question.
I have answered that about 10 times.
Starmer won as the unity candidate.
He had 10 pledges he has broken them all.
He lied to become leader and has put factional interests above unity.
Last time we discussed this you said you knew his pledges were lies and you are glad he is attacking certain party members.
That makes you and SKS my Political enemy Comrade!
Good
Well exactly stop asking stupid questions
Don't claim you're a Labour voter or supporter, when you're not
So that sort of thing is Futures traders by day, with money to burn on shit and giggles late evening, and that’s basically what’s driving this thing you are looking at, that produces “Labour have buggered this up” to “Boris is toast” metromically in here until the actual result is announced. That’s how staying up for these things work?
I am not knocking the excitement, but I am getting very drunk
The difference between the Corbyn cultists and actual Labour supporters is that the latter want a Labour Government that wins elections
Well they have f****ed it with SKS as leader. Lab only wins when it is a party of the centre left. You will find out in 2024 how many on the left aren't prepared to support it anymore.
So that sort of thing is Futures traders by day, with money to burn on shit and giggles late evening, and that’s basically what’s driving this thing you are looking at, that produces “Labour have buggered this up” to “Boris is toast” metromically in here until the actual result is announced. That’s how staying up for these things work?
I am not knocking the excitement, but I am getting very drunk
You also no idea what other bets they have, they might be laying off all sorts of other action.
Is it hard to get into a count - one of us here should try and head to the next by-election and report what's going on without the absolute codswallop most journos seem to come up with when they're trying to mark time.
I was there earlier today but not sure how you get into the count.
Stand as a candidate?
You suggesting a PB whip-round for the deposit ?
PB Raving Irrelevance Party?
That might give the game away. Monster Raving Psephologists ?
Brilliant. I wouldhappily chip in a tenner towards the deposit were someone to stand under that label.
If BJO was truly interested in a left wing Government he'd get behind Keir Starmer and or Ed Davey where appropriate but for reasons only known to him he is not.
I will ask again, what is wrong with Keir Starmer's policies and what don't you like?
SKS has policies?
He won't need any if Johnson has been snapped scoffing pizza in May 2020.
I'd laugh so hard if Labour do shock everyone and win. Since I keep trading by laying Tories/LDs, I've got an increasingly big green next to Labour now.
There is zero chance of Labour winning. Clearly many/most of their supporters have switched to the LDs this time.
I hope Lib Dems narrowly pull it off and it would be good if there's a by election in e.g. Shrewsbury in the near future where tactical voting could be reciprocated in favour of Labour.
I think the Lib Dems were always going to struggle to push Labour below 10% whether Labour campaigned or not.
I apologise if I'm boring people here, but if I was a Salopian I would have voted Tory in 2019 and Lib Dem tonight, because the Lib Dems voted against Plan B. They're bonkers in many other respects, but to be honest that's true of all parties. I wouldn't vote Labour, because Labour voted in favour of Plan B, and indeed have been enthusiastically in favour of any restrictions on freedom since the pandemic started. From a Tory protest point of view the two are not interchangeable.
However. There isn't a big constituency of voters opposed to Plan B. Let alone cast their vote on the basis.
No, fair enough. There's a wider constituency of voters who more generally think the government is being too pro-lockdown. The Lib Dem record would look good to such a constituency - though the LDs make so little of itmost voters wouldn't notice. How big a constituency is the "government is being too heavy handed" bloc? I don't know. It can just be me and the wife though I fully accept it's not a universally held position. The point is though that Lab and LDs aren't interchangeable.
Sure, the LibDem candidate will tell you that the LibDems are against the Government being heavy-handed and they don't want lockdowns.
And your neighbour across the road, the one who is immuno-suppressed & critically vulnerable.
Why there, the LibDem candidate will say how important it is that we are all very careful and of course a lockdown is needed to prevent the spread of Omicron.
The difference between the Corbyn cultists and actual Labour supporters is that the latter want a Labour Government that wins elections
Well they have f****ed it with SKS as leader. Lab only wins when it is a party of the centre left. You will find out in 2024 how many on the left aren't prepared to support it anymore.
Labour is currently 9 points ahead of the Tories.
Keir Starmer is currently the most popular Labour leader since Tony Blair.
The reason you hate these men is because they try to win elections. And that is why Blair is the most hated of them all, because he won three times.
If BJO was truly interested in a left wing Government he'd get behind Keir Starmer and or Ed Davey where appropriate but for reasons only known to him he is not.
I will ask again, what is wrong with Keir Starmer's policies and what don't you like?
Why do you keep asking the same question.
I have answered that about 10 times.
Starmer won as the unity candidate.
He had 10 pledges he has broken them all.
He lied to become leader and has put factional interests above unity.
Last time we discussed this you said you knew his pledges were lies and you are glad he is attacking certain party members.
That makes you and SKS my Political enemy Comrade!
Good
Well exactly stop asking stupid questions
Don't claim you're a Labour voter or supporter, when you're not
I think it's pretty obvious I am currently not.
I am any Party not led by Starmer.
FYI.As recently as May 2021 I was a Labour voter, supporter,CLP Executive Officer, Labour Election Agent.
I'd laugh so hard if Labour do shock everyone and win. Since I keep trading by laying Tories/LDs, I've got an increasingly big green next to Labour now.
There is zero chance of Labour winning. Clearly many/most of their supporters have switched to the LDs this time.
I hope Lib Dems narrowly pull it off and it would be good if there's a by election in e.g. Shrewsbury in the near future where tactical voting could be reciprocated in favour of Labour.
I think the Lib Dems were always going to struggle to push Labour below 10% whether Labour campaigned or not.
I apologise if I'm boring people here, but if I was a Salopian I would have voted Tory in 2019 and Lib Dem tonight, because the Lib Dems voted against Plan B. They're bonkers in many other respects, but to be honest that's true of all parties. I wouldn't vote Labour, because Labour voted in favour of Plan B, and indeed have been enthusiastically in favour of any restrictions on freedom since the pandemic started. From a Tory protest point of view the two are not interchangeable.
However. There isn't a big constituency of voters opposed to Plan B. Let alone cast their vote on the basis.
No, fair enough. There's a wider constituency of voters who more generally think the government is being too pro-lockdown. The Lib Dem record would look good to such a constituency - though the LDs make so little of itmost voters wouldn't notice. How big a constituency is the "government is being too heavy handed" bloc? I don't know. It can just be me and the wife though I fully accept it's not a universally held position. The point is though that Lab and LDs aren't interchangeable.
Fair response. I'm sure it is a small percentage. But one to whom the issue is of the utmost salience. And if you are one of them then LD and Labour are far from similar when casting your vote. That is true.
So that sort of thing is Futures traders by day, with money to burn on shit and giggles late evening, and that’s basically what’s driving this thing you are looking at, that produces “Labour have buggered this up” to “Boris is toast” metromically in here until the actual result is announced. That’s how staying up for these things work?
I am not knocking the excitement, but I am getting very drunk
You also no idea what other bets they have, they might be laying off all sorts of other action.
These cheeky so and so’s are toying with us? People will literally cry by the end of the night.
The difference between the Corbyn cultists and actual Labour supporters is that the latter want a Labour Government that wins elections
Well they have f****ed it with SKS as leader. Lab only wins when it is a party of the centre left. You will find out in 2024 how many on the left aren't prepared to support it anymore.
Labour is currently 9 points ahead of the Tories.
Keir Starmer is currently the most popular Labour leader since Tony Blair.
The reason you hate these men is because they try to win elections. And that is why Blair is the most hated of them all, because he won three times.
I voted for Blair twice I will never vote for SKS.
I can confidently pronounce Prudhoe, Slaithwaite and Kirkcudbright (Prudder, Slaithwaite and Kirkcoobree), but I always thought Greenock was pronounced Grennock. Every day's a school day.
Think that was how one of the blokes who did the classified scores for years pronounced it.
Yes it was - and to be honest I don't think I've heard the word 'Greenock' outside of that context. Although I'm sure Greenock in the context of football is a neologism- when I was growing up I'm sure they were plain old 'Morton'.
They were. But only briefly. They changed back to what they'd been for most of their history. See also Leyton Orient. They were Orient when I was growing up.
The difference between the Corbyn cultists and actual Labour supporters is that the latter want a Labour Government that wins elections
Well they have f****ed it with SKS as leader. Lab only wins when it is a party of the centre left. You will find out in 2024 how many on the left aren't prepared to support it anymore.
Labour is currently 9 points ahead of the Tories.
Keir Starmer is currently the most popular Labour leader since Tony Blair.
The reason you hate these men is because they try to win elections. And that is why Blair is the most hated of them all, because he won three times.
I voted for Blair twice I will never vote for SKS.
If BJO was truly interested in a left wing Government he'd get behind Keir Starmer and or Ed Davey where appropriate but for reasons only known to him he is not.
I will ask again, what is wrong with Keir Starmer's policies and what don't you like?
Why do you keep asking the same question.
I have answered that about 10 times.
Starmer won as the unity candidate.
He had 10 pledges he has broken them all.
He lied to become leader and has put factional interests above unity.
Last time we discussed this you said you knew his pledges were lies and you are glad he is attacking certain party members.
That makes you and SKS my Political enemy Comrade!
Good
So it’s war!
Tune in to PB for all unrivalled coverage of this war. The best analysis, graphics, charts, statistical comparisons of the war against the result of Oxford v Cambridge cricket match 1904, and irreverent references to soccer moms. If this war happens, we will have it all.
Is it hard to get into a count - one of us here should try and head to the next by-election and report what's going on without the absolute codswallop most journos seem to come up with when they're trying to mark time.
PBers might be able to wangle a press pass?
Very doable. Your average returning officer has little clue about online media but PB's readership, compared with (say) the Shropshire Star, should make a fairly compelling case.
It's difficult to believe Hartlepool was only 7 months ago. A complete change in Johnson's fortunes.
Indeed. This reminds me of the period after the 1992 election. The downward drift of the Tories didn't begin with Black Wednesday. And of Brown after the none GE. It has been like a snowball decline. Small and almost imperceptible since June, but gathering pace. Difficult to see anything obvious which will stop it.
Comments
I am still busy trying to think of ways we can supplement the diminutive Alun's diminutive salary. Any ideas?
As for Drakey he is transforming into the old lady in the Salem painting.
@lewis_goodall
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15m
Basically, no-one knows yet
I am still confident I will become the first Gen Z pm, but I always imagined I wouldn’t be shocked by any of my campaign vote counts, I’d know sure enough on the day before counting began.
Another thing is the sizeable number of mad anti-vaxxy gammony parties standing, even a few votes lost here and there to these fruitcakes could cost the Tories the seat.
Con 2.2
I will ask again, what is wrong with Keir Starmer's policies and what don't you like?
I make it virtually no swing since May. 0.1% Con to Lab.
Nevertheless, with that and Lichfield, the Tories are holding up hugely in that part of the country compared with pretty much everywhere else.
Drakey is an enigma ... I was amazed at @FrankBooth 's revelation earlier on the thread that Drakey was allowed out wearing shorts.
Let alone cast their vote on the basis.
He might as well have been daubed in woad.
Surely such things not in Lib Dem gift but in the Labour voters mind?
Possible to get designated as observer by a candidate? Perhaps for candidate not too obsessed with actually winning?
I mean, it might well be close, but equally this could yet be several thousand one way or another.
Con 2.36
Con 2.24 / 2.4
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.190523448
Lab picked a Candidate intelligible to stand and seat remains vacant.
Useless nonentity party strikes again
The Off Topic Alliance
Always been Keir Starmer's secret weapon
Was employed by LA
Similarly, when I livedin Beeston, everyone knew Southwell was pronounced Suthull. But then I played rugby against Southwell, and it turns out in Southwell grey pronounce Southwell as Southwell. Only in Nottingham - where I hope I don't sound pejorative in describing the accent as 'lazy' is it pronounced Suthull.
Looking good for the Lib Dems
Monster Raving Psephologists ?
I do understand your concern.
Where were you then?
SKS doesn't pick Council by-election candidates. You'd be the first to scream blue murder if he tried.
Nor does he scrutinise their eligibility.
A massive cock-up yes.
And one which was known about before voting. In the circumstances it's a surprise Labour actually held on. And not a massive surprise there was a huge swing against the half wits.
I have answered that about 10 times.
Starmer won as the unity candidate.
He had 10 pledges he has broken them all.
He lied to become leader and has put factional interests above unity.
Last time we discussed this you said you knew his pledges were lies and you are glad he is attacking certain party members.
That makes you and SKS my Political enemy Comrade!
There's a wider constituency of voters who more generally think the government is being too pro-lockdown. The Lib Dem record would look good to such a constituency - though the LDs make so little of itmost voters wouldn't notice.
How big a constituency is the "government is being too heavy handed" bloc? I don't know. It can just be me and the wife though I fully accept it's not a universally held position.
The point is though that Lab and LDs aren't interchangeable.
"There was only one tradition I hated - and that was losing" - Tony Blair
I am not knocking the excitement, but I am getting very drunk
Lab only wins when it is a party of the centre left. You will find out in 2024 how many on the left aren't prepared to support it anymore.
IKAAAAAAAAAARA!
And your neighbour across the road, the one who is immuno-suppressed & critically vulnerable.
Why there, the LibDem candidate will say how important it is that we are all very careful and of course a lockdown is needed to prevent the spread of Omicron.
That is how LibDem canvassing works.
I expect the LibDems will win North Shropshire.
Keir Starmer is currently the most popular Labour leader since Tony Blair.
The reason you hate these men is because they try to win elections. And that is why Blair is the most hated of them all, because he won three times.
I am any Party not led by Starmer.
FYI.As recently as May 2021 I was a Labour voter, supporter,CLP Executive Officer, Labour Election Agent.
I'm sure it is a small percentage. But one to whom the issue is of the utmost salience.
And if you are one of them then LD and Labour are far from similar when casting your vote. That is true.
See also Leyton Orient. They were Orient when I was growing up.
Excellent work
@PickardJE
·
1h
ever get the feeling you’ve been cheated
Tune in to PB for all unrivalled coverage of this war. The best analysis, graphics, charts, statistical comparisons of the war against the result of Oxford v Cambridge cricket match 1904, and irreverent references to soccer moms. If this war happens, we will have it all.
ALL VOTES ARE NOW IN.
We're back after a quick stroll around the count and there are a lot of worried faces/happy faces*.
*delete as applicable. "
https://www.bordercountiesadvertizer.co.uk/news/19788472.live-blog-north-shropshire-by-election/
It has been like a snowball decline. Small and almost imperceptible since June, but gathering pace. Difficult to see anything obvious which will stop it.
I wonder what's become of that Boris balloon