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The money moves sharply to the LDs in North Shropshire – politicalbetting.com

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249

    Farooq said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Gets worse for SKS the Walsall Lab candidate is disqualified despite winning

    Lab picked a Candidate intelligible to stand and seat remains vacant.

    Useless nonentity party strikes again

    I thought you were a Labour supporter?
    No, a Corbyn cultist. Now engaged in pointless and low quality internecine sniping.
    vive La difference! It gives the world colour?
    They lead to Tory Governments, Labour is useless out of power.

    "There was only one tradition I hated - and that was losing" - Tony Blair
    Purity is more important than winning

    IKAAAAAAAAAARA!
    Go on then Malmsy, you have to explain the Kara thing. Did you favourite film character oft exclaim it 🙂
    It's Ikarra actually.

    It's also the cry of a fanatic, who realises, a million years after his death, that he destroyed his entire civilisation in the quest for purity.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Running down the thread did you note that Tories were out canvassing as Labour to split the vote. Johnsonianism really is quite incredible.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It's difficult to believe Hartlepool was only 7 months ago. A complete change in Johnson's fortunes.

    Was it @Ishmael_Z who at the time suggested Hartlepool was peak Johnson?
    Sure was

    I wonder what's become of that Boris balloon
    I remember thinking this was very wise
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497

    Farooq said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Gets worse for SKS the Walsall Lab candidate is disqualified despite winning

    Lab picked a Candidate intelligible to stand and seat remains vacant.

    Useless nonentity party strikes again

    I thought you were a Labour supporter?
    No, a Corbyn cultist. Now engaged in pointless and low quality internecine sniping.
    vive La difference! It gives the world colour?
    They lead to Tory Governments, Labour is useless out of power.

    "There was only one tradition I hated - and that was losing" - Tony Blair
    Then why did he join the wrong party 😆
    Tony Blair never lost a GE when the party was led by him
    I don’t want to put words in the mouth of Johns faction, but it was a Labour leader centre right so not really a Labour government. Is inflating the client state really a successful Labour policy? Is axing fox hunting really up on the board of major achievements (not an achievement I support, you should see the mess fox made of Paloma Faith when he got hold of her)
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Cookie said:

    sarissa said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    After Omicron, I reckon the next variant's going to be so transmissible it's doubling time actually doubles backwards into the past.

    I hope you have all done Ayahuasca as I advised. It gives the most exquisite perspective

    Panicked Human: OMFG we're all going to die

    God (in a bored but tolerant voice): And?

    Panicked Human: This is the the end of the world!

    God (sighing): There are infinite other worlds. Have a beer. Sorry I forgot your name?
    Sounds a bit disappointing.
    It is fantastic

    The obverse of the cruel nihilism is that glimpse into the deep interior life of reality. If the ayahuasca works, and you don't puke too much, you are privy to the cascading beauty of a conscious universe. A Niagara of a trillion tumbling jewels, forever churning and evanescing, and creating - at least in our prismatic sense - the shot rainbow of human souls
    Or Tuesday as they call it in Prudhoe.
    Fun fact: 98% of PBers don't know how to pronounce Prudhoe.
    Alnwick used to trip me up until I visited it for the first time.

    Now, how many PBers can pronounce Slaithwaite correctly?
    There are some good ones in Fife - Anstruther, Kilconquar and even Kirkcaldy trip people up.
    Kirkcudbright.
    I raise you Milngavie.

    One of my best friends (east coast Scottish as the day is long) as best man to his brother who was marrying a weegie pronounced it as it looks in his speech, to much hooting.
    Garioch - short but un-guessable.
    And Greenock is a double-bluff - it is not pronounced "Grennock" but as it reads.
    Correct, although after living in Greenock for more than four years I'm still not sure about the first syllable of Gourock. It seems to vary from a hard g to something gooey.
    I can confidently pronounce Prudhoe, Slaithwaite and Kirkcudbright (Prudder, Slaithwaite and Kirkcoobree), but I always thought Greenock was pronounced Grennock. Every day's a school day.
    Slaithwaite is "Slawit" or "Slowit".

    On topic, I don't suppose we know which boxes have been counted yet? I could believe Market Drayton et al going Lib Dem but the more rural wards staying Con, and often the rural ones are slower to come in.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497

    If BJO was truly interested in a left wing Government he'd get behind Keir Starmer and or Ed Davey where appropriate but for reasons only known to him he is not.

    I will ask again, what is wrong with Keir Starmer's policies and what don't you like?

    Why do you keep asking the same question.

    I have answered that about 10 times.

    Starmer won as the unity candidate.

    He had 10 pledges he has broken them all.

    He lied to become leader and has put factional interests above unity.

    Last time we discussed this you said you knew his pledges were lies and you are glad he is attacking certain party members.

    That makes you and SKS my Political enemy Comrade!
    Good
    So it’s war!

    Tune in to PB for all unrivalled coverage of this war. The best analysis, graphics, charts, statistical comparisons of the war against the result of Oxford v Cambridge cricket match 1904, and irreverent references to soccer moms. If this war happens, we will have it all.
    They are irreverent references to soccer moms?
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,149
    edited December 2021
    Regardless of the result, there is an interesting counterfactual in that, when Owen Paterson resigned, the Lib Dems suggested a Martin Bell-style independent anti-sleaze candidate and Labout shot it down.

    I'm not exactly sure what we take from that, whether the Lib Dems miss out or win. But it was seriously floated.

    I'd say probably, with hindsight, it was a mistake by Labour. But that's because the sleaze scandal worsened rather than dissipated, so in fact an independent anti-sleaze candidate may well have romped home. But that wasn't known at the time.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Ld 1.71
    Con 2.38
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660

    Running down the thread did you note that Tories were out canvassing as Labour to split the vote. Johnsonianism really is quite incredible.
    Same thing!!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Is @IshmaelZ same as @Ishmael_Z

    One of them tends to underscore.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401

    Regardless of the result, there is an interesting counterfactual in that, when Owen Paterson resigned, the Lib Dems suggested a Martin Bell-style independent anti-sleaze candidate and Labout shot it down.

    I'm not exactly sure what we take from that, whether the Lib Dems miss out or win. But it was seriously floated.

    Yes but.
    An anti-sleaze candidate works when your opponent is the sleazy one. Would have had some traction against Paterson. Not otherwise.
    An official LD Labour pact would need some common policies. And there are significant blockages against that. Not least the one @Cookie noted up thread.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited December 2021
    NS live blog -

    12:24am
    With 14 candidates at the by-election, there are a lot of people in the count and it's a hive of activity.
    There are many official people with rosettes and clipboards, the main look of the night, and they are moving around.

    The media, which has been based in the indoor bowls centre near the count, are being restricted.

    12:16am
    ALL VOTES ARE NOW IN.
    We're back after a quick stroll around the count and there are a lot of worried faces/happy faces*.
    *delete as applicable.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    Farooq said:

    If BJO was truly interested in a left wing Government he'd get behind Keir Starmer and or Ed Davey where appropriate but for reasons only known to him he is not.

    I will ask again, what is wrong with Keir Starmer's policies and what don't you like?

    Why do you keep asking the same question.

    I have answered that about 10 times.

    Starmer won as the unity candidate.

    He had 10 pledges he has broken them all.

    He lied to become leader and has put factional interests above unity.

    Last time we discussed this you said you knew his pledges were lies and you are glad he is attacking certain party members.

    That makes you and SKS my Political enemy Comrade!
    Good
    So it’s war!

    Tune in to PB for all unrivalled coverage of this war. The best analysis, graphics, charts, statistical comparisons of the war against the result of Oxford v Cambridge cricket match 1904, and irreverent references to soccer moms. If this war happens, we will have it all.
    There were four Oxford v Cambridge cricket matches in 1904. It wasn't until 1926 that both universities fielded unified teams from across colleges. Until that point, colleges arranged and played individual matches.
    PB at its best. It’s the speed these facts fly back that is the thing.

    Paloma was one of my chickens.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660

    The difference between the Corbyn cultists and actual Labour supporters is that the latter want a Labour Government that wins elections

    Well they have f****ed it with SKS as leader.
    Lab only wins when it is a party of the centre left. You will find out in 2024 how many on the left aren't prepared to support it anymore.
    Labour is currently 9 points ahead of the Tories.
    You are so last week.

    5 points this week, back behind by Easter
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249

    Is @IshmaelZ same as @Ishmael_Z

    One of them tends to underscore.
    It's as clear as the difference between Zathras and Zathras
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,040
    There are a lot of elections today where the turnout is under 20%. Is this democracy?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497

    Farooq said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Gets worse for SKS the Walsall Lab candidate is disqualified despite winning

    Lab picked a Candidate intelligible to stand and seat remains vacant.

    Useless nonentity party strikes again

    I thought you were a Labour supporter?
    No, a Corbyn cultist. Now engaged in pointless and low quality internecine sniping.
    vive La difference! It gives the world colour?
    They lead to Tory Governments, Labour is useless out of power.

    "There was only one tradition I hated - and that was losing" - Tony Blair
    Purity is more important than winning

    IKAAAAAAAAAARA!
    Go on then Malmsy, you have to explain the Kara thing. Did you favourite film character oft exclaim it 🙂
    It's Ikarra actually.

    It's also the cry of a fanatic, who realises, a million years after his death, that he destroyed his entire civilisation in the quest for purity.
    Thanks.

    So HYUFD has just shy a million years to go before he face palms himself.
  • dixiedean said:

    Regardless of the result, there is an interesting counterfactual in that, when Owen Paterson resigned, the Lib Dems suggested a Martin Bell-style independent anti-sleaze candidate and Labout shot it down.

    I'm not exactly sure what we take from that, whether the Lib Dems miss out or win. But it was seriously floated.

    Yes but.
    An anti-sleaze candidate works when your opponent is the sleazy one. Would have had some traction against Paterson. Not otherwise.
    An official LD Labour pact would need some common policies. And there are significant blockages against that. Not least the one @Cookie noted up thread.
    The opponent in this by-election is Boris Johnson.

    There's some bloke from Birmingham and some lady who lives more locally whose names are on the ballot paper and you can like them or not.

    But let's not forget what a by-election is in this situation. It's essentially a referendum on the performance of the PM.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    slade said:

    There are a lot of elections today where the turnout is under 20%. Is this democracy?

    I’ll try to give you a serious answer as I can nurse Slade, yes as it’s democratic right to not vote. But today maybe a bit of pandemic prioritising
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660
    Nigelb said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Gets worse for SKS the Walsall Lab candidate is disqualified despite winning

    Lab picked a Candidate intelligible to stand and seat remains vacant.

    Useless nonentity party strikes again

    I thought you were a Labour supporter?
    Faction over party.
    Sums SKS up perfectly
  • Based on pics & video on the NS live blog, looks to me like the physical setup for tonight's count in Shrewsbury is quite good. From standpoint of efficiency, transparency, accuracy AND COVID safety.

    In fact, quite similar to what I saw last year during full hand recount of IIRC around 90k ballots after 2020 general, in legislative race (between two Dems). This was in Seattle. Fewer election workers and observers, but only two candidates and the count was done over several days.

    Also same prominence, indeed preponderance, of women in the counting team.
  • If the Lib Dems win somehow @isam and @bigjohnowls will still make this about Keir Starmer needing to resign.

    It is obvious to me as it was at the start, that Labour stood a paper candidate here
  • Cookie said:

    sarissa said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    After Omicron, I reckon the next variant's going to be so transmissible it's doubling time actually doubles backwards into the past.

    I hope you have all done Ayahuasca as I advised. It gives the most exquisite perspective

    Panicked Human: OMFG we're all going to die

    God (in a bored but tolerant voice): And?

    Panicked Human: This is the the end of the world!

    God (sighing): There are infinite other worlds. Have a beer. Sorry I forgot your name?
    Sounds a bit disappointing.
    It is fantastic

    The obverse of the cruel nihilism is that glimpse into the deep interior life of reality. If the ayahuasca works, and you don't puke too much, you are privy to the cascading beauty of a conscious universe. A Niagara of a trillion tumbling jewels, forever churning and evanescing, and creating - at least in our prismatic sense - the shot rainbow of human souls
    Or Tuesday as they call it in Prudhoe.
    Fun fact: 98% of PBers don't know how to pronounce Prudhoe.
    Alnwick used to trip me up until I visited it for the first time.

    Now, how many PBers can pronounce Slaithwaite correctly?
    There are some good ones in Fife - Anstruther, Kilconquar and even Kirkcaldy trip people up.
    Kirkcudbright.
    I raise you Milngavie.

    One of my best friends (east coast Scottish as the day is long) as best man to his brother who was marrying a weegie pronounced it as it looks in his speech, to much hooting.
    Garioch - short but un-guessable.
    And Greenock is a double-bluff - it is not pronounced "Grennock" but as it reads.
    Correct, although after living in Greenock for more than four years I'm still not sure about the first syllable of Gourock. It seems to vary from a hard g to something gooey.
    I can confidently pronounce Prudhoe, Slaithwaite and Kirkcudbright (Prudder, Slaithwaite and Kirkcoobree), but I always thought Greenock was pronounced Grennock. Every day's a school day.
    Slaithwaite is "Slawit" or "Slowit".

    On topic, I don't suppose we know which boxes have been counted yet? I could believe Market Drayton et al going Lib Dem but the more rural wards staying Con, and often the rural ones are slower to come in.
    In Birmingham, Alabama, local Black residents have been known to pronounce it "Bmnhm".
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    Put £20 more on the Lib Dems at 1.72 on the strength of these anecdotes


    Joanne Pryce Gallacher
    @joanne_bbc
    Green Party candidate
    @DuncanKer
    believes
    @LibDems
    will take the North Shropshire seat. He’s been on the floor of the count as votes are verified.

    This one perhaps the strongest
  • Cookie said:

    sarissa said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    After Omicron, I reckon the next variant's going to be so transmissible it's doubling time actually doubles backwards into the past.

    I hope you have all done Ayahuasca as I advised. It gives the most exquisite perspective

    Panicked Human: OMFG we're all going to die

    God (in a bored but tolerant voice): And?

    Panicked Human: This is the the end of the world!

    God (sighing): There are infinite other worlds. Have a beer. Sorry I forgot your name?
    Sounds a bit disappointing.
    It is fantastic

    The obverse of the cruel nihilism is that glimpse into the deep interior life of reality. If the ayahuasca works, and you don't puke too much, you are privy to the cascading beauty of a conscious universe. A Niagara of a trillion tumbling jewels, forever churning and evanescing, and creating - at least in our prismatic sense - the shot rainbow of human souls
    Or Tuesday as they call it in Prudhoe.
    Fun fact: 98% of PBers don't know how to pronounce Prudhoe.
    Alnwick used to trip me up until I visited it for the first time.

    Now, how many PBers can pronounce Slaithwaite correctly?
    There are some good ones in Fife - Anstruther, Kilconquar and even Kirkcaldy trip people up.
    Kirkcudbright.
    I raise you Milngavie.

    One of my best friends (east coast Scottish as the day is long) as best man to his brother who was marrying a weegie pronounced it as it looks in his speech, to much hooting.
    Garioch - short but un-guessable.
    And Greenock is a double-bluff - it is not pronounced "Grennock" but as it reads.
    Correct, although after living in Greenock for more than four years I'm still not sure about the first syllable of Gourock. It seems to vary from a hard g to something gooey.
    I can confidently pronounce Prudhoe, Slaithwaite and Kirkcudbright (Prudder, Slaithwaite and Kirkcoobree), but I always thought Greenock was pronounced Grennock. Every day's a school day.
    Slaithwaite is "Slawit" or "Slowit".

    On topic, I don't suppose we know which boxes have been counted yet? I could believe Market Drayton et al going Lib Dem but the more rural wards staying Con, and often the rural ones are slower to come in.
    "Slathwaite" is also acceptable.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    Sounds like expectation management more than anything to me.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    edited December 2021

    Farooq said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Gets worse for SKS the Walsall Lab candidate is disqualified despite winning

    Lab picked a Candidate intelligible to stand and seat remains vacant.

    Useless nonentity party strikes again

    I thought you were a Labour supporter?
    No, a Corbyn cultist. Now engaged in pointless and low quality internecine sniping.
    vive La difference! It gives the world colour?
    They lead to Tory Governments, Labour is useless out of power.

    "There was only one tradition I hated - and that was losing" - Tony Blair
    Purity is more important than winning

    IKAAAAAAAAAARA!
    Go on then Malmsy, you have to explain the Kara thing. Did you favourite film character oft exclaim it 🙂
    It's Ikarra actually.

    It's also the cry of a fanatic, who realises, a million years after his death, that he destroyed his entire civilisation in the quest for purity.
    Thanks.

    So HYUFD has just shy a million years to go before he face palms himself.
    It depends

    Has a creepy, shadowy guy been seen asking "What do you want?"

    image
  • NS live blog - 12:36am
    And in terms of the votes I observed while at the count, there was a fairly even spread across the three main parties.

    SSI - if this is reasonably correct, then could it be that there's a scenario where the Tories could hold the seat, but with such a reduced vote share that it would be a pyrrhic victory?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497

    If the Lib Dems win somehow @isam and @bigjohnowls will still make this about Keir Starmer needing to resign.

    It is obvious to me as it was at the start, that Labour stood a paper candidate here

    I agree Horse, it must be a tricky thing to make it seam real, which is what it needs to look, without getting too real.
  • SOMETHING MUST BE DONE V213

    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    How can policymakers look at their own models of omicron's spread & think a measure such as [closing nightclubs after Boxing Day] has the slightest relevance, either in terms of timescale or effect? The mind boggles.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    edited December 2021

    dixiedean said:

    Regardless of the result, there is an interesting counterfactual in that, when Owen Paterson resigned, the Lib Dems suggested a Martin Bell-style independent anti-sleaze candidate and Labout shot it down.

    I'm not exactly sure what we take from that, whether the Lib Dems miss out or win. But it was seriously floated.

    Yes but.
    An anti-sleaze candidate works when your opponent is the sleazy one. Would have had some traction against Paterson. Not otherwise.
    An official LD Labour pact would need some common policies. And there are significant blockages against that. Not least the one @Cookie noted up thread.
    The opponent in this by-election is Boris Johnson.

    There's some bloke from Birmingham and some lady who lives more locally whose names are on the ballot paper and you can like them or not.

    But let's not forget what a by-election is in this situation. It's essentially a referendum on the performance of the PM.
    Well. That is very true.
    However, that still needs some level of an agreed anti-Boris platform.
    He's slapdash, bone idle and incompetent. Agreed. But is he too pro-NPI's or not? Is he spending too much or not?
    There have been moves in Hungary and Brazil to agree such a platform.
    But Johnson isn't Orban or Bolsonaro just yet.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    Con 43
    LD 35
    Lab 14
    RefUK 5

    Calling it now.

  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,149
    edited December 2021
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Regardless of the result, there is an interesting counterfactual in that, when Owen Paterson resigned, the Lib Dems suggested a Martin Bell-style independent anti-sleaze candidate and Labout shot it down.

    I'm not exactly sure what we take from that, whether the Lib Dems miss out or win. But it was seriously floated.

    Yes but.
    An anti-sleaze candidate works when your opponent is the sleazy one. Would have had some traction against Paterson. Not otherwise.
    An official LD Labour pact would need some common policies. And there are significant blockages against that. Not least the one @Cookie noted up thread.
    The opponent in this by-election is Boris Johnson.

    There's some bloke from Birmingham and some lady who lives more locally whose names are on the ballot paper and you can like them or not.

    But let's not forget what a by-election is in this situation. It's essentially a referendum on the performance of the PM.
    Well. That is very true.
    However, that still needs some level of an agreed anti-Boris platform.
    He's slapdash, bone idle and incompetent. Agreed. But is he too pro-NPI's or not? Is he spending too much or not?
    There have been moves in Hungary and Brazil to agree such a platform.
    But Johnson isn't Orban or Bolsonaro just yet.
    I agree for a General Election.

    But this is a by-election where people simply aren't deciding on those things. The Conservatives had a comfortable majority in Parliament yesterday and will tomorrow. Nothing here, or in Chesham, or in Batley, or in Hartlepool, changes that.

    Candidates matter a little, policies matter a little. But, in essence, by-elections are mini-referendums on Governments and PMs.

    So absolutely, if this seat changes hands, opposition parties need to seal the deal with policy and personality. But the seat won't have changed hands for those reasons.

    So Sky News are going on about the impact of Brexit. And no doubt Tories will have run that line in a 60% Brexit seat, and maybe it will be enough. But, for vast numbers of people, it doesn't matter a damn because they aren't idiots - whichever way this goes has zero chance of changing the position on Brexit.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401

    Cookie said:

    sarissa said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    After Omicron, I reckon the next variant's going to be so transmissible it's doubling time actually doubles backwards into the past.

    I hope you have all done Ayahuasca as I advised. It gives the most exquisite perspective

    Panicked Human: OMFG we're all going to die

    God (in a bored but tolerant voice): And?

    Panicked Human: This is the the end of the world!

    God (sighing): There are infinite other worlds. Have a beer. Sorry I forgot your name?
    Sounds a bit disappointing.
    It is fantastic

    The obverse of the cruel nihilism is that glimpse into the deep interior life of reality. If the ayahuasca works, and you don't puke too much, you are privy to the cascading beauty of a conscious universe. A Niagara of a trillion tumbling jewels, forever churning and evanescing, and creating - at least in our prismatic sense - the shot rainbow of human souls
    Or Tuesday as they call it in Prudhoe.
    Fun fact: 98% of PBers don't know how to pronounce Prudhoe.
    Alnwick used to trip me up until I visited it for the first time.

    Now, how many PBers can pronounce Slaithwaite correctly?
    There are some good ones in Fife - Anstruther, Kilconquar and even Kirkcaldy trip people up.
    Kirkcudbright.
    I raise you Milngavie.

    One of my best friends (east coast Scottish as the day is long) as best man to his brother who was marrying a weegie pronounced it as it looks in his speech, to much hooting.
    Garioch - short but un-guessable.
    And Greenock is a double-bluff - it is not pronounced "Grennock" but as it reads.
    Correct, although after living in Greenock for more than four years I'm still not sure about the first syllable of Gourock. It seems to vary from a hard g to something gooey.
    I can confidently pronounce Prudhoe, Slaithwaite and Kirkcudbright (Prudder, Slaithwaite and Kirkcoobree), but I always thought Greenock was pronounced Grennock. Every day's a school day.
    Slaithwaite is "Slawit" or "Slowit".

    On topic, I don't suppose we know which boxes have been counted yet? I could believe Market Drayton et al going Lib Dem but the more rural wards staying Con, and often the rural ones are slower to come in.
    "Slathwaite" is also acceptable.
    Surprised no one has mentioned how to pronounce Shrewsbury. Given the focus is on Shropshire tonight.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497

    Farooq said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Gets worse for SKS the Walsall Lab candidate is disqualified despite winning

    Lab picked a Candidate intelligible to stand and seat remains vacant.

    Useless nonentity party strikes again

    I thought you were a Labour supporter?
    No, a Corbyn cultist. Now engaged in pointless and low quality internecine sniping.
    vive La difference! It gives the world colour?
    They lead to Tory Governments, Labour is useless out of power.

    "There was only one tradition I hated - and that was losing" - Tony Blair
    Purity is more important than winning

    IKAAAAAAAAAARA!
    Go on then Malmsy, you have to explain the Kara thing. Did you favourite film character oft exclaim it 🙂
    It's Ikarra actually.

    It's also the cry of a fanatic, who realises, a million years after his death, that he destroyed his entire civilisation in the quest for purity.
    Thanks.

    So HYUFD has just shy a million years to go before he face palms himself.
    It depends

    Has a creepy, shadowy guy been seen asking "What do you want?"

    image
    Creepy guys normally tell me what they think I want.

    “You got any landan in ya? Would ya like some?”

    I have seen creepier guys than that.

    Seems familiar. Likes his tea.

    Is he the outgoing chief exec of Yorkshire Cricket?
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,664
    edited December 2021
    dixiedean said:

    Cookie said:

    sarissa said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    After Omicron, I reckon the next variant's going to be so transmissible it's doubling time actually doubles backwards into the past.

    I hope you have all done Ayahuasca as I advised. It gives the most exquisite perspective

    Panicked Human: OMFG we're all going to die

    God (in a bored but tolerant voice): And?

    Panicked Human: This is the the end of the world!

    God (sighing): There are infinite other worlds. Have a beer. Sorry I forgot your name?
    Sounds a bit disappointing.
    It is fantastic

    The obverse of the cruel nihilism is that glimpse into the deep interior life of reality. If the ayahuasca works, and you don't puke too much, you are privy to the cascading beauty of a conscious universe. A Niagara of a trillion tumbling jewels, forever churning and evanescing, and creating - at least in our prismatic sense - the shot rainbow of human souls
    Or Tuesday as they call it in Prudhoe.
    Fun fact: 98% of PBers don't know how to pronounce Prudhoe.
    Alnwick used to trip me up until I visited it for the first time.

    Now, how many PBers can pronounce Slaithwaite correctly?
    There are some good ones in Fife - Anstruther, Kilconquar and even Kirkcaldy trip people up.
    Kirkcudbright.
    I raise you Milngavie.

    One of my best friends (east coast Scottish as the day is long) as best man to his brother who was marrying a weegie pronounced it as it looks in his speech, to much hooting.
    Garioch - short but un-guessable.
    And Greenock is a double-bluff - it is not pronounced "Grennock" but as it reads.
    Correct, although after living in Greenock for more than four years I'm still not sure about the first syllable of Gourock. It seems to vary from a hard g to something gooey.
    I can confidently pronounce Prudhoe, Slaithwaite and Kirkcudbright (Prudder, Slaithwaite and Kirkcoobree), but I always thought Greenock was pronounced Grennock. Every day's a school day.
    Slaithwaite is "Slawit" or "Slowit".

    On topic, I don't suppose we know which boxes have been counted yet? I could believe Market Drayton et al going Lib Dem but the more rural wards staying Con, and often the rural ones are slower to come in.
    "Slathwaite" is also acceptable.
    Surprised no one has mentioned how to pronounce Shrewsbury. Given the focus is on Shropshire tonight.
    Will this be a salopdown for the Tories?


    [Would say Shrowsbury here, no idea if that is correct]
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553

    NS live blog - 12:36am
    And in terms of the votes I observed while at the count, there was a fairly even spread across the three main parties.

    SSI - if this is reasonably correct, then could it be that there's a scenario where the Tories could hold the seat, but with such a reduced vote share that it would be a pyrrhic victory?

    The Tories will be happy to win, regardless of how low their vote share is.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Regardless of the result, there is an interesting counterfactual in that, when Owen Paterson resigned, the Lib Dems suggested a Martin Bell-style independent anti-sleaze candidate and Labout shot it down.

    I'm not exactly sure what we take from that, whether the Lib Dems miss out or win. But it was seriously floated.

    Yes but.
    An anti-sleaze candidate works when your opponent is the sleazy one. Would have had some traction against Paterson. Not otherwise.
    An official LD Labour pact would need some common policies. And there are significant blockages against that. Not least the one @Cookie noted up thread.
    The opponent in this by-election is Boris Johnson.

    There's some bloke from Birmingham and some lady who lives more locally whose names are on the ballot paper and you can like them or not.

    But let's not forget what a by-election is in this situation. It's essentially a referendum on the performance of the PM.
    Well. That is very true.
    However, that still needs some level of an agreed anti-Boris platform.
    He's slapdash, bone idle and incompetent. Agreed. But is he too pro-NPI's or not? Is he spending too much or not?
    There have been moves in Hungary and Brazil to agree such a platform.
    But Johnson isn't Orban or Bolsonaro just yet.
    I agree for a General Election.

    But this is a by-election where people simply aren't deciding on those things. The Conservatives had a comfortable majority in Parliament yesterday and will tomorrow. Nothing here, or in Chesham, or in Batley, or in Hartlepool, changes that.

    Candidates matter a little, policies matter a little. But, in essence, by-elections are mini-referendums on Governments and PMs.

    So absolutely, if this seat changes hands, opposition parties need to seal the deal with policy and personality. But the seat won't have changed hands for those reasons.
    Mmm.
    Possibly. You are in danger of local activists throwing in the towel though.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Con 43
    LD 35
    Lab 14
    RefUK 5

    Calling it now.

    LAB will be in single figures
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553

    Based on pics & video on the NS live blog, looks to me like the physical setup for tonight's count in Shrewsbury is quite good. From standpoint of efficiency, transparency, accuracy AND COVID safety.

    In fact, quite similar to what I saw last year during full hand recount of IIRC around 90k ballots after 2020 general, in legislative race (between two Dems). This was in Seattle. Fewer election workers and observers, but only two candidates and the count was done over several days.

    Also same prominence, indeed preponderance, of women in the counting team.

    The difference is that here the media don't pretend to know the result before all the votes are counted, unlike in the United States.
  • Have to say, the Sky coverage is utterly dire. Z-list guests who don't know the first thing about the campaign and how by-elections work trying to keep bored presenters who know even less awake. Dreadful.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Based on pics & video on the NS live blog, looks to me like the physical setup for tonight's count in Shrewsbury is quite good. From standpoint of efficiency, transparency, accuracy AND COVID safety.

    In fact, quite similar to what I saw last year during full hand recount of IIRC around 90k ballots after 2020 general, in legislative race (between two Dems). This was in Seattle. Fewer election workers and observers, but only two candidates and the count was done over several days.

    Also same prominence, indeed preponderance, of women in the counting team.

    The difference is that here the media don't pretend to know the result before all the votes are counted, unlike in the United States.
    They didn't do that in the case I just cited.

    If you're talking about national elections, different kettle o'fish on either side of the Atlantic (or Pacific).
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    .
    rcs1000 said:

    Con 43
    LD 35
    Lab 14
    RefUK 5

    Calling it now.

    Recalling your election2019 80 seat Con. majority, I might as well go to bed.

    Well that was a disappointment.

    Night, night!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497

    rcs1000 said:

    Con 43
    LD 35
    Lab 14
    RefUK 5

    Calling it now.

    LAB will be in single figures
    Have you two guys agreed yet weather it’s sprouts boiled at Christmas or pan fried in oil and walnuts?
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Andy_JS said:

    Based on pics & video on the NS live blog, looks to me like the physical setup for tonight's count in Shrewsbury is quite good. From standpoint of efficiency, transparency, accuracy AND COVID safety.

    In fact, quite similar to what I saw last year during full hand recount of IIRC around 90k ballots after 2020 general, in legislative race (between two Dems). This was in Seattle. Fewer election workers and observers, but only two candidates and the count was done over several days.

    Also same prominence, indeed preponderance, of women in the counting team.

    The difference is that here the media don't pretend to know the result before all the votes are counted, unlike in the United States.
    The US media has moved on a fair bit actually; they now pretend to know the result well before any of the votes are even cast.
  • dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Regardless of the result, there is an interesting counterfactual in that, when Owen Paterson resigned, the Lib Dems suggested a Martin Bell-style independent anti-sleaze candidate and Labout shot it down.

    I'm not exactly sure what we take from that, whether the Lib Dems miss out or win. But it was seriously floated.

    Yes but.
    An anti-sleaze candidate works when your opponent is the sleazy one. Would have had some traction against Paterson. Not otherwise.
    An official LD Labour pact would need some common policies. And there are significant blockages against that. Not least the one @Cookie noted up thread.
    The opponent in this by-election is Boris Johnson.

    There's some bloke from Birmingham and some lady who lives more locally whose names are on the ballot paper and you can like them or not.

    But let's not forget what a by-election is in this situation. It's essentially a referendum on the performance of the PM.
    Well. That is very true.
    However, that still needs some level of an agreed anti-Boris platform.
    He's slapdash, bone idle and incompetent. Agreed. But is he too pro-NPI's or not? Is he spending too much or not?
    There have been moves in Hungary and Brazil to agree such a platform.
    But Johnson isn't Orban or Bolsonaro just yet.
    I agree for a General Election.

    But this is a by-election where people simply aren't deciding on those things. The Conservatives had a comfortable majority in Parliament yesterday and will tomorrow. Nothing here, or in Chesham, or in Batley, or in Hartlepool, changes that.

    Candidates matter a little, policies matter a little. But, in essence, by-elections are mini-referendums on Governments and PMs.

    So absolutely, if this seat changes hands, opposition parties need to seal the deal with policy and personality. But the seat won't have changed hands for those reasons.
    Mmm.
    Possibly. You are in danger of local activists throwing in the towel though.
    By "local activists" do you mean deliverers in Wem and Oswestry? Because local activists in that sense don't matter very much in Parliamentary by-elections. They're not, bluntly, the super-canvassers and people putting out a leaflet every 24 hours.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    dixiedean said:

    Cookie said:

    sarissa said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    After Omicron, I reckon the next variant's going to be so transmissible it's doubling time actually doubles backwards into the past.

    I hope you have all done Ayahuasca as I advised. It gives the most exquisite perspective

    Panicked Human: OMFG we're all going to die

    God (in a bored but tolerant voice): And?

    Panicked Human: This is the the end of the world!

    God (sighing): There are infinite other worlds. Have a beer. Sorry I forgot your name?
    Sounds a bit disappointing.
    It is fantastic

    The obverse of the cruel nihilism is that glimpse into the deep interior life of reality. If the ayahuasca works, and you don't puke too much, you are privy to the cascading beauty of a conscious universe. A Niagara of a trillion tumbling jewels, forever churning and evanescing, and creating - at least in our prismatic sense - the shot rainbow of human souls
    Or Tuesday as they call it in Prudhoe.
    Fun fact: 98% of PBers don't know how to pronounce Prudhoe.
    Alnwick used to trip me up until I visited it for the first time.

    Now, how many PBers can pronounce Slaithwaite correctly?
    There are some good ones in Fife - Anstruther, Kilconquar and even Kirkcaldy trip people up.
    Kirkcudbright.
    I raise you Milngavie.

    One of my best friends (east coast Scottish as the day is long) as best man to his brother who was marrying a weegie pronounced it as it looks in his speech, to much hooting.
    Garioch - short but un-guessable.
    And Greenock is a double-bluff - it is not pronounced "Grennock" but as it reads.
    Correct, although after living in Greenock for more than four years I'm still not sure about the first syllable of Gourock. It seems to vary from a hard g to something gooey.
    I can confidently pronounce Prudhoe, Slaithwaite and Kirkcudbright (Prudder, Slaithwaite and Kirkcoobree), but I always thought Greenock was pronounced Grennock. Every day's a school day.
    Slaithwaite is "Slawit" or "Slowit".

    On topic, I don't suppose we know which boxes have been counted yet? I could believe Market Drayton et al going Lib Dem but the more rural wards staying Con, and often the rural ones are slower to come in.
    "Slathwaite" is also acceptable.
    Surprised no one has mentioned how to pronounce Shrewsbury. Given the focus is on Shropshire tonight.

    dixiedean said:

    Cookie said:

    sarissa said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    After Omicron, I reckon the next variant's going to be so transmissible it's doubling time actually doubles backwards into the past.

    I hope you have all done Ayahuasca as I advised. It gives the most exquisite perspective

    Panicked Human: OMFG we're all going to die

    God (in a bored but tolerant voice): And?

    Panicked Human: This is the the end of the world!

    God (sighing): There are infinite other worlds. Have a beer. Sorry I forgot your name?
    Sounds a bit disappointing.
    It is fantastic

    The obverse of the cruel nihilism is that glimpse into the deep interior life of reality. If the ayahuasca works, and you don't puke too much, you are privy to the cascading beauty of a conscious universe. A Niagara of a trillion tumbling jewels, forever churning and evanescing, and creating - at least in our prismatic sense - the shot rainbow of human souls
    Or Tuesday as they call it in Prudhoe.
    Fun fact: 98% of PBers don't know how to pronounce Prudhoe.
    Alnwick used to trip me up until I visited it for the first time.

    Now, how many PBers can pronounce Slaithwaite correctly?
    There are some good ones in Fife - Anstruther, Kilconquar and even Kirkcaldy trip people up.
    Kirkcudbright.
    I raise you Milngavie.

    One of my best friends (east coast Scottish as the day is long) as best man to his brother who was marrying a weegie pronounced it as it looks in his speech, to much hooting.
    Garioch - short but un-guessable.
    And Greenock is a double-bluff - it is not pronounced "Grennock" but as it reads.
    Correct, although after living in Greenock for more than four years I'm still not sure about the first syllable of Gourock. It seems to vary from a hard g to something gooey.
    I can confidently pronounce Prudhoe, Slaithwaite and Kirkcudbright (Prudder, Slaithwaite and Kirkcoobree), but I always thought Greenock was pronounced Grennock. Every day's a school day.
    Slaithwaite is "Slawit" or "Slowit".

    On topic, I don't suppose we know which boxes have been counted yet? I could believe Market Drayton et al going Lib Dem but the more rural wards staying Con, and often the rural ones are slower to come in.
    "Slathwaite" is also acceptable.
    Surprised no one has mentioned how to pronounce Shrewsbury. Given the focus is on Shropshire tonight.
    Will this be a salopdown for the Tories?


    [Would say Shrowsbury here, no idea if that is correct]
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eQIgmSvujb4

    22:10 - Shrewsbury seems to generate more cheers than shrowsbury.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Ld 1.6
    Con 2.6
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    ping said:

    Ld 1.6
    Con 2.6

    It’s RCS wot swung it 😆
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Found my prediction.
    But this was before party gate, and before I realised that Lab would put in more than a token effort.

    Con 48%
    Libs 42%
    Lab 2%
    Green 3%
    Others 5%

    Turnout 43%

    I’d now go

    Con 43%
    Libs 40%
    Lab 9%
    Green 3%
    Others 5%

    Same turnout.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    Seems like everyone from Coventry South has been campainging to try and ensure a Tory win.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497

    Have to say, the Sky coverage is utterly dire. Z-list guests who don't know the first thing about the campaign and how by-elections work trying to keep bored presenters who know even less awake. Dreadful.

    And this is how a prime minister dream can end?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    edited December 2021

    dixiedean said:

    Cookie said:

    sarissa said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    After Omicron, I reckon the next variant's going to be so transmissible it's doubling time actually doubles backwards into the past.

    I hope you have all done Ayahuasca as I advised. It gives the most exquisite perspective

    Panicked Human: OMFG we're all going to die

    God (in a bored but tolerant voice): And?

    Panicked Human: This is the the end of the world!

    God (sighing): There are infinite other worlds. Have a beer. Sorry I forgot your name?
    Sounds a bit disappointing.
    It is fantastic

    The obverse of the cruel nihilism is that glimpse into the deep interior life of reality. If the ayahuasca works, and you don't puke too much, you are privy to the cascading beauty of a conscious universe. A Niagara of a trillion tumbling jewels, forever churning and evanescing, and creating - at least in our prismatic sense - the shot rainbow of human souls
    Or Tuesday as they call it in Prudhoe.
    Fun fact: 98% of PBers don't know how to pronounce Prudhoe.
    Alnwick used to trip me up until I visited it for the first time.

    Now, how many PBers can pronounce Slaithwaite correctly?
    There are some good ones in Fife - Anstruther, Kilconquar and even Kirkcaldy trip people up.
    Kirkcudbright.
    I raise you Milngavie.

    One of my best friends (east coast Scottish as the day is long) as best man to his brother who was marrying a weegie pronounced it as it looks in his speech, to much hooting.
    Garioch - short but un-guessable.
    And Greenock is a double-bluff - it is not pronounced "Grennock" but as it reads.
    Correct, although after living in Greenock for more than four years I'm still not sure about the first syllable of Gourock. It seems to vary from a hard g to something gooey.
    I can confidently pronounce Prudhoe, Slaithwaite and Kirkcudbright (Prudder, Slaithwaite and Kirkcoobree), but I always thought Greenock was pronounced Grennock. Every day's a school day.
    Slaithwaite is "Slawit" or "Slowit".

    On topic, I don't suppose we know which boxes have been counted yet? I could believe Market Drayton et al going Lib Dem but the more rural wards staying Con, and often the rural ones are slower to come in.
    "Slathwaite" is also acceptable.
    Surprised no one has mentioned how to pronounce Shrewsbury. Given the focus is on Shropshire tonight.
    Will this be a salopdown for the Tories?


    [Would say Shrowsbury here, no idea if that is correct]
    Mark Steel had a long segment on it in Mark Steel's in Town from the very place.
    Unusually, there doesn't seem to be any local agreement. Nor class distinction. Yours is one. Others say as it is spelled. Another group miss out the R altogether as in Shoes bury.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    edited December 2021

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Regardless of the result, there is an interesting counterfactual in that, when Owen Paterson resigned, the Lib Dems suggested a Martin Bell-style independent anti-sleaze candidate and Labout shot it down.

    I'm not exactly sure what we take from that, whether the Lib Dems miss out or win. But it was seriously floated.

    Yes but.
    An anti-sleaze candidate works when your opponent is the sleazy one. Would have had some traction against Paterson. Not otherwise.
    An official LD Labour pact would need some common policies. And there are significant blockages against that. Not least the one @Cookie noted up thread.
    The opponent in this by-election is Boris Johnson.

    There's some bloke from Birmingham and some lady who lives more locally whose names are on the ballot paper and you can like them or not.

    But let's not forget what a by-election is in this situation. It's essentially a referendum on the performance of the PM.
    Well. That is very true.
    However, that still needs some level of an agreed anti-Boris platform.
    He's slapdash, bone idle and incompetent. Agreed. But is he too pro-NPI's or not? Is he spending too much or not?
    There have been moves in Hungary and Brazil to agree such a platform.
    But Johnson isn't Orban or Bolsonaro just yet.
    I agree for a General Election.

    But this is a by-election where people simply aren't deciding on those things. The Conservatives had a comfortable majority in Parliament yesterday and will tomorrow. Nothing here, or in Chesham, or in Batley, or in Hartlepool, changes that.

    Candidates matter a little, policies matter a little. But, in essence, by-elections are mini-referendums on Governments and PMs.

    So absolutely, if this seat changes hands, opposition parties need to seal the deal with policy and personality. But the seat won't have changed hands for those reasons.
    Mmm.
    Possibly. You are in danger of local activists throwing in the towel though.
    By "local activists" do you mean deliverers in Wem and Oswestry? Because local activists in that sense don't matter very much in Parliamentary by-elections. They're not, bluntly, the super-canvassers and people putting out a leaflet every 24 hours.
    Need some COVID addled sleep. Will think on it.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254

    Have to say, the Sky coverage is utterly dire. Z-list guests who don't know the first thing about the campaign and how by-elections work trying to keep bored presenters who know even less awake. Dreadful.

    I listen to my EDM and just turn it up when Thrasher or Jon Craig come on.

    Interesting nuggets - apparently a 26pc swing is required by the Lib Dems.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    JBriskin3 said:

    Have to say, the Sky coverage is utterly dire. Z-list guests who don't know the first thing about the campaign and how by-elections work trying to keep bored presenters who know even less awake. Dreadful.

    I listen to my EDM and just turn it up when Thrasher or Jon Craig come on.

    Interesting nuggets - apparently a 26pc swing is required by the Lib Dems.
    Yes it was Con 63%, LD 10% last time, with Lab on 22%.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    dixiedean said:

    Cookie said:

    sarissa said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    After Omicron, I reckon the next variant's going to be so transmissible it's doubling time actually doubles backwards into the past.

    I hope you have all done Ayahuasca as I advised. It gives the most exquisite perspective

    Panicked Human: OMFG we're all going to die

    God (in a bored but tolerant voice): And?

    Panicked Human: This is the the end of the world!

    God (sighing): There are infinite other worlds. Have a beer. Sorry I forgot your name?
    Sounds a bit disappointing.
    It is fantastic

    The obverse of the cruel nihilism is that glimpse into the deep interior life of reality. If the ayahuasca works, and you don't puke too much, you are privy to the cascading beauty of a conscious universe. A Niagara of a trillion tumbling jewels, forever churning and evanescing, and creating - at least in our prismatic sense - the shot rainbow of human souls
    Or Tuesday as they call it in Prudhoe.
    Fun fact: 98% of PBers don't know how to pronounce Prudhoe.
    Alnwick used to trip me up until I visited it for the first time.

    Now, how many PBers can pronounce Slaithwaite correctly?
    There are some good ones in Fife - Anstruther, Kilconquar and even Kirkcaldy trip people up.
    Kirkcudbright.
    I raise you Milngavie.

    One of my best friends (east coast Scottish as the day is long) as best man to his brother who was marrying a weegie pronounced it as it looks in his speech, to much hooting.
    Garioch - short but un-guessable.
    And Greenock is a double-bluff - it is not pronounced "Grennock" but as it reads.
    Correct, although after living in Greenock for more than four years I'm still not sure about the first syllable of Gourock. It seems to vary from a hard g to something gooey.
    I can confidently pronounce Prudhoe, Slaithwaite and Kirkcudbright (Prudder, Slaithwaite and Kirkcoobree), but I always thought Greenock was pronounced Grennock. Every day's a school day.
    Slaithwaite is "Slawit" or "Slowit".

    On topic, I don't suppose we know which boxes have been counted yet? I could believe Market Drayton et al going Lib Dem but the more rural wards staying Con, and often the rural ones are slower to come in.
    "Slathwaite" is also acceptable.
    Surprised no one has mentioned how to pronounce Shrewsbury. Given the focus is on Shropshire tonight.
    I don't think there's one correct way to pronounce it, you can say either of the two ways.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    Right. Just pause everything. I need to eat something else to mop up all this red wine.
  • Have to say, the Sky coverage is utterly dire. Z-list guests who don't know the first thing about the campaign and how by-elections work trying to keep bored presenters who know even less awake. Dreadful.

    I believe what you have done there is describe Sky News usual output.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    Andy_JS said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Have to say, the Sky coverage is utterly dire. Z-list guests who don't know the first thing about the campaign and how by-elections work trying to keep bored presenters who know even less awake. Dreadful.

    I listen to my EDM and just turn it up when Thrasher or Jon Craig come on.

    Interesting nuggets - apparently a 26pc swing is required by the Lib Dems.
    Yes it was Con 63%, LD 10% last time, with Lab on 22%.
    It seems like a rather major swing is required yet they're favourites?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    Andy_JS said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Have to say, the Sky coverage is utterly dire. Z-list guests who don't know the first thing about the campaign and how by-elections work trying to keep bored presenters who know even less awake. Dreadful.

    I listen to my EDM and just turn it up when Thrasher or Jon Craig come on.

    Interesting nuggets - apparently a 26pc swing is required by the Lib Dems.
    Yes it was Con 63%, LD 10% last time, with Lab on 22%.
    Big swings do happen in by-elections though.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited December 2021
    Growing up not a million miles away from Shrewsbury, at least where I came from Shrows-bury was seen as a bit Mrs Bucket way of pronouncing it, akin to calling it Barrtttth.
  • JBriskin3 said:

    Have to say, the Sky coverage is utterly dire. Z-list guests who don't know the first thing about the campaign and how by-elections work trying to keep bored presenters who know even less awake. Dreadful.

    I listen to my EDM and just turn it up when Thrasher or Jon Craig come on.

    Interesting nuggets - apparently a 26pc swing is required by the Lib Dems.
    In what universe is that an "interesting nugget"? That's the difference between the LD and Tory shares in 2019 halved, which can easily be worked out by any halfwit with access to the internet.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254

    JBriskin3 said:

    Have to say, the Sky coverage is utterly dire. Z-list guests who don't know the first thing about the campaign and how by-elections work trying to keep bored presenters who know even less awake. Dreadful.

    I listen to my EDM and just turn it up when Thrasher or Jon Craig come on.

    Interesting nuggets - apparently a 26pc swing is required by the Lib Dems.
    In what universe is that an "interesting nugget"? That's the difference between the LD and Tory shares in 2019 halved, which can easily be worked out by any halfwit with access to the internet.
    LOL - I always get confused by swings; never sure what figure I'm supposed to halve.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited December 2021
    I’d be surprised if it isn’t fairly close. We’d know by now if either LDs/con had won a decent majority.

    Looks to me like 2/1 on either party was a good bet, in hindsight.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    I think we'll be relatively OK in the UK tbh, social isolation at Christmas and the harrowing of the hospitality industry the main effects.
    When it gets into red states in the USA...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    ping said:

    I’d be surprised if it isn’t fairly close. We’d know by know if either LDs/con had won a decent majority.

    Looks to me like 2/1 on either party was a good bet, in hindsight.

    It's the green party anecdote that makes me think the LDs might be ahead. They're as neutral as you'll get - how does it matter to them which variety of blue or yellow capitalism wins the by-election ?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited December 2021
    Pulpstar said:

    I think we'll be relatively OK in the UK tbh, social isolation at Christmas and the harrowing of the hospitality industry the main effects.
    When it gets into red states in the USA...
    The US are about to run a real world experiment on zero jab, single jab, double jab, triple jab, previous infection, Delta vs Omicron....

    I wish them well with this. Many need to start praying to their god.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited December 2021
    Pulpstar said:

    ping said:

    I’d be surprised if it isn’t fairly close. We’d know by know if either LDs/con had won a decent majority.

    Looks to me like 2/1 on either party was a good bet, in hindsight.

    It's the green party anecdote that makes me think the LDs might be ahead. They're as neutral as you'll get - how does it matter to them which variety of blue or yellow capitalism wins the by-election ?
    Difficult to know. They might be making the common mistake of only looking at boxes from the towns - the rural ones take longer to arrive. But who knows?

    Signal or noise?

    My last bet was yesterday. I’m letting my book ride.
  • Re: pronunciation of Shrewsbury, are initial "S" and final "y" silent, but the "s" pronounced as "zhzz"?
    > "Hrewzhzz-bur"

    My guess is, probably not?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188

    Re: pronunciation of Shrewsbury, are initial "S" and final "y" silent, but the "s" pronounced as "zhzz"?
    > "Hrewzhzz-bur"

    My guess is, probably not?

    The main debate is between "Shrew" and "Shroh"
  • Pulpstar said:

    Re: pronunciation of Shrewsbury, are initial "S" and final "y" silent, but the "s" pronounced as "zhzz"?
    > "Hrewzhzz-bur"

    My guess is, probably not?

    The main debate is between "Shrew" and "Shroh"
    However Brother Caedfael said it, is good enough for me.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,454
    Pulpstar said:

    Re: pronunciation of Shrewsbury, are initial "S" and final "y" silent, but the "s" pronounced as "zhzz"?
    > "Hrewzhzz-bur"

    My guess is, probably not?

    The main debate is between "Shrew" and "Shroh"
    This West Midlander says Shrew
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Pulpstar said:

    ping said:

    I’d be surprised if it isn’t fairly close. We’d know by know if either LDs/con had won a decent majority.

    Looks to me like 2/1 on either party was a good bet, in hindsight.

    It's the green party anecdote that makes me think the LDs might be ahead. They're as neutral as you'll get - how does it matter to them which variety of blue or yellow capitalism wins the by-election ?
    Blah blah Progressive Alliance blah blah Boris is Trump blah blah Tory evil cuts murderers blah blah...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    Timpson giving it the old "difficult night"
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited December 2021
    Betting market pretty static

    Ld 1.73/1.77
    Con 2.3/2.36
    Lab 400/890
    Reform 1000
    Green 1000
  • Pulpstar said:

    Re: pronunciation of Shrewsbury, are initial "S" and final "y" silent, but the "s" pronounced as "zhzz"?
    > "Hrewzhzz-bur"

    My guess is, probably not?

    The main debate is between "Shrew" and "Shroh"
    This West Midlander says Shrew
    Couldn't they have a cool nickname, like maybe Mole Town?

    In WA State, city of Bellingham is often referred to as Hamsterville.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    I’m off to bed. I still think the Tories have it.
    That Green candidate is probably clueless, if not he wouldn’t be standing for the Greens in North Shrops.
  • North Shrop live blog has been un-updated for nearly a hour. Methinks that Barrie White is taking a nap?

    Supposedly result due approx 3am Salopian Semi-Standard Time
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited December 2021
    Money coming in for the LDs

    LDs 1.33/1.4
    Con 2.7/3.95
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    ping said:

    Money coming in for the LDs

    LDs 1.33/1.4

    Timpson doesn't seem very confident at all on Sky News.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    edited December 2021
    ping said:

    I’d be surprised if it isn’t fairly close. We’d know by now if either LDs/con had won a decent majority.

    Looks to me like 2/1 on either party was a good bet, in hindsight.

    My prediction from yesterday was LD 39.9%, Con 39.3%, Lab 9.6%, Reform 6.2%, Green 2.1%.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    46.3%, good turnout tbh
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    Turnout 46.3 according to Sky
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Pulpstar said:

    ping said:

    Money coming in for the LDs

    LDs 1.33/1.4

    Timpson doesn't seem very confident at all on Sky News.
    Who is timpson?
  • Andy_JS said:

    ping said:

    I’d be surprised if it isn’t fairly close. We’d know by now if either LDs/con had won a decent majority.

    Looks to me like 2/1 on either party was a good bet, in hindsight.

    My prediction from yesterday was LD 39.9%, Con 39.3%, Lab 9.6%, Reform 6.2%, Green 2.1%.
    Certainly some indications of possible closeness in reportage and spin-age.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    ping said:

    Pulpstar said:

    ping said:

    Money coming in for the LDs

    LDs 1.33/1.4

    Timpson doesn't seem very confident at all on Sky News.
    Who is timpson?
    MP for Eddisbury "need to regroup"...
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    Pulpstar said:

    ping said:

    Money coming in for the LDs

    LDs 1.33/1.4

    Timpson doesn't seem very confident at all on Sky News.
    Chirstine Jardine of the Lib Dems wasn't looking that happy last hour.
  • ping said:

    Pulpstar said:

    ping said:

    Money coming in for the LDs

    LDs 1.33/1.4

    Timpson doesn't seem very confident at all on Sky News.
    Who is timpson?
    Former mp for Crewe and Nantwich now Eddisbury.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    Pulpstar said:

    46.3%, good turnout tbh

    Almost. My prediction was 43%.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    Good Lord "COMFORTABLY"
  • pingping Posts: 3,805

    Ld 1.22/1.23
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    COMFORTABLY
This discussion has been closed.