The difference between the Corbyn cultists and actual Labour supporters is that the latter want a Labour Government that wins elections
Well they have f****ed it with SKS as leader. Lab only wins when it is a party of the centre left. You will find out in 2024 how many on the left aren't prepared to support it anymore.
Labour is currently 9 points ahead of the Tories.
Keir Starmer is currently the most popular Labour leader since Tony Blair.
The reason you hate these men is because they try to win elections. And that is why Blair is the most hated of them all, because he won three times.
I voted for Blair twice I will never vote for SKS.
If BJO was truly interested in a left wing Government he'd get behind Keir Starmer and or Ed Davey where appropriate but for reasons only known to him he is not.
I will ask again, what is wrong with Keir Starmer's policies and what don't you like?
Why do you keep asking the same question.
I have answered that about 10 times.
Starmer won as the unity candidate.
He had 10 pledges he has broken them all.
He lied to become leader and has put factional interests above unity.
Last time we discussed this you said you knew his pledges were lies and you are glad he is attacking certain party members.
That makes you and SKS my Political enemy Comrade!
Good
So it’s war!
Tune in to PB for all unrivalled coverage of this war. The best analysis, graphics, charts, statistical comparisons of the war against the result of Oxford v Cambridge cricket match 1904, and irreverent references to soccer moms. If this war happens, we will have it all.
Is it hard to get into a count - one of us here should try and head to the next by-election and report what's going on without the absolute codswallop most journos seem to come up with when they're trying to mark time.
PBers might be able to wangle a press pass?
Very doable. Your average returning officer has little clue about online media but PB's readership, compared with (say) the Shropshire Star, should make a fairly compelling case.
It's difficult to believe Hartlepool was only 7 months ago. A complete change in Johnson's fortunes.
Indeed. This reminds me of the period after the 1992 election. The downward drift of the Tories didn't begin with Black Wednesday. And of Brown after the none GE. It has been like a snowball decline. Small and almost imperceptible since June, but gathering pace. Difficult to see anything obvious which will stop it.
If BJO was truly interested in a left wing Government he'd get behind Keir Starmer and or Ed Davey where appropriate but for reasons only known to him he is not.
I will ask again, what is wrong with Keir Starmer's policies and what don't you like?
Why do you keep asking the same question.
I have answered that about 10 times.
Starmer won as the unity candidate.
He had 10 pledges he has broken them all.
He lied to become leader and has put factional interests above unity.
Last time we discussed this you said you knew his pledges were lies and you are glad he is attacking certain party members.
That makes you and SKS my Political enemy Comrade!
Good
So it’s war!
Tune in to PB for all unrivalled coverage of this war. The best analysis, graphics, charts, statistical comparisons of the war against the result of Oxford v Cambridge cricket match 1904, and irreverent references to soccer moms. If this war happens, we will have it all.
There were four Oxford v Cambridge cricket matches in 1904. It wasn't until 1926 that both universities fielded unified teams from across colleges. Until that point, colleges arranged and played individual matches.
It's difficult to believe Hartlepool was only 7 months ago. A complete change in Johnson's fortunes.
Indeed. This reminds me of the period after the 1992 election. The downward drift of the Tories didn't begin with Black Wednesday. And of Brown after the none GE. It has been like a snowball decline. Small and almost imperceptible since June, but gathering pace. Difficult to see anything obvious which will stop it.
Gets worse for SKS the Walsall Lab candidate is disqualified despite winning
Lab picked a Candidate intelligible to stand and seat remains vacant.
Useless nonentity party strikes again
I thought you were a Labour supporter?
No, a Corbyn cultist. Now engaged in pointless and low quality internecine sniping.
vive La difference! It gives the world colour?
They lead to Tory Governments, Labour is useless out of power.
"There was only one tradition I hated - and that was losing" - Tony Blair
Then why did he join the wrong party 😆
Tony Blair never lost a GE when the party was led by him
I don’t want to put words in the mouth of Johns faction, but it was a Labour leader centre right so not really a Labour government. Is inflating the client state really a successful Labour policy? Is axing fox hunting really up on the board of major achievements (not an achievement I support, you should see the mess fox made of Paloma Faith when he got hold of her)
After Omicron, I reckon the next variant's going to be so transmissible it's doubling time actually doubles backwards into the past.
I hope you have all done Ayahuasca as I advised. It gives the most exquisite perspective
Panicked Human: OMFG we're all going to die
God (in a bored but tolerant voice): And?
Panicked Human: This is the the end of the world!
God (sighing): There are infinite other worlds. Have a beer. Sorry I forgot your name?
Sounds a bit disappointing.
It is fantastic
The obverse of the cruel nihilism is that glimpse into the deep interior life of reality. If the ayahuasca works, and you don't puke too much, you are privy to the cascading beauty of a conscious universe. A Niagara of a trillion tumbling jewels, forever churning and evanescing, and creating - at least in our prismatic sense - the shot rainbow of human souls
Or Tuesday as they call it in Prudhoe.
Fun fact: 98% of PBers don't know how to pronounce Prudhoe.
Alnwick used to trip me up until I visited it for the first time.
Now, how many PBers can pronounce Slaithwaite correctly?
There are some good ones in Fife - Anstruther, Kilconquar and even Kirkcaldy trip people up.
Kirkcudbright.
I raise you Milngavie.
One of my best friends (east coast Scottish as the day is long) as best man to his brother who was marrying a weegie pronounced it as it looks in his speech, to much hooting.
Garioch - short but un-guessable.
And Greenock is a double-bluff - it is not pronounced "Grennock" but as it reads.
Correct, although after living in Greenock for more than four years I'm still not sure about the first syllable of Gourock. It seems to vary from a hard g to something gooey.
I can confidently pronounce Prudhoe, Slaithwaite and Kirkcudbright (Prudder, Slaithwaite and Kirkcoobree), but I always thought Greenock was pronounced Grennock. Every day's a school day.
Slaithwaite is "Slawit" or "Slowit".
On topic, I don't suppose we know which boxes have been counted yet? I could believe Market Drayton et al going Lib Dem but the more rural wards staying Con, and often the rural ones are slower to come in.
If BJO was truly interested in a left wing Government he'd get behind Keir Starmer and or Ed Davey where appropriate but for reasons only known to him he is not.
I will ask again, what is wrong with Keir Starmer's policies and what don't you like?
Why do you keep asking the same question.
I have answered that about 10 times.
Starmer won as the unity candidate.
He had 10 pledges he has broken them all.
He lied to become leader and has put factional interests above unity.
Last time we discussed this you said you knew his pledges were lies and you are glad he is attacking certain party members.
That makes you and SKS my Political enemy Comrade!
Good
So it’s war!
Tune in to PB for all unrivalled coverage of this war. The best analysis, graphics, charts, statistical comparisons of the war against the result of Oxford v Cambridge cricket match 1904, and irreverent references to soccer moms. If this war happens, we will have it all.
Regardless of the result, there is an interesting counterfactual in that, when Owen Paterson resigned, the Lib Dems suggested a Martin Bell-style independent anti-sleaze candidate and Labout shot it down.
I'm not exactly sure what we take from that, whether the Lib Dems miss out or win. But it was seriously floated.
I'd say probably, with hindsight, it was a mistake by Labour. But that's because the sleaze scandal worsened rather than dissipated, so in fact an independent anti-sleaze candidate may well have romped home. But that wasn't known at the time.
Regardless of the result, there is an interesting counterfactual in that, when Owen Paterson resigned, the Lib Dems suggested a Martin Bell-style independent anti-sleaze candidate and Labout shot it down.
I'm not exactly sure what we take from that, whether the Lib Dems miss out or win. But it was seriously floated.
Yes but. An anti-sleaze candidate works when your opponent is the sleazy one. Would have had some traction against Paterson. Not otherwise. An official LD Labour pact would need some common policies. And there are significant blockages against that. Not least the one @Cookie noted up thread.
12:24am With 14 candidates at the by-election, there are a lot of people in the count and it's a hive of activity. There are many official people with rosettes and clipboards, the main look of the night, and they are moving around.
The media, which has been based in the indoor bowls centre near the count, are being restricted.
12:16am ALL VOTES ARE NOW IN. We're back after a quick stroll around the count and there are a lot of worried faces/happy faces*. *delete as applicable.
If BJO was truly interested in a left wing Government he'd get behind Keir Starmer and or Ed Davey where appropriate but for reasons only known to him he is not.
I will ask again, what is wrong with Keir Starmer's policies and what don't you like?
Why do you keep asking the same question.
I have answered that about 10 times.
Starmer won as the unity candidate.
He had 10 pledges he has broken them all.
He lied to become leader and has put factional interests above unity.
Last time we discussed this you said you knew his pledges were lies and you are glad he is attacking certain party members.
That makes you and SKS my Political enemy Comrade!
Good
So it’s war!
Tune in to PB for all unrivalled coverage of this war. The best analysis, graphics, charts, statistical comparisons of the war against the result of Oxford v Cambridge cricket match 1904, and irreverent references to soccer moms. If this war happens, we will have it all.
There were four Oxford v Cambridge cricket matches in 1904. It wasn't until 1926 that both universities fielded unified teams from across colleges. Until that point, colleges arranged and played individual matches.
PB at its best. It’s the speed these facts fly back that is the thing.
The difference between the Corbyn cultists and actual Labour supporters is that the latter want a Labour Government that wins elections
Well they have f****ed it with SKS as leader. Lab only wins when it is a party of the centre left. You will find out in 2024 how many on the left aren't prepared to support it anymore.
Regardless of the result, there is an interesting counterfactual in that, when Owen Paterson resigned, the Lib Dems suggested a Martin Bell-style independent anti-sleaze candidate and Labout shot it down.
I'm not exactly sure what we take from that, whether the Lib Dems miss out or win. But it was seriously floated.
Yes but. An anti-sleaze candidate works when your opponent is the sleazy one. Would have had some traction against Paterson. Not otherwise. An official LD Labour pact would need some common policies. And there are significant blockages against that. Not least the one @Cookie noted up thread.
The opponent in this by-election is Boris Johnson.
There's some bloke from Birmingham and some lady who lives more locally whose names are on the ballot paper and you can like them or not.
But let's not forget what a by-election is in this situation. It's essentially a referendum on the performance of the PM.
Based on pics & video on the NS live blog, looks to me like the physical setup for tonight's count in Shrewsbury is quite good. From standpoint of efficiency, transparency, accuracy AND COVID safety.
In fact, quite similar to what I saw last year during full hand recount of IIRC around 90k ballots after 2020 general, in legislative race (between two Dems). This was in Seattle. Fewer election workers and observers, but only two candidates and the count was done over several days.
Also same prominence, indeed preponderance, of women in the counting team.
After Omicron, I reckon the next variant's going to be so transmissible it's doubling time actually doubles backwards into the past.
I hope you have all done Ayahuasca as I advised. It gives the most exquisite perspective
Panicked Human: OMFG we're all going to die
God (in a bored but tolerant voice): And?
Panicked Human: This is the the end of the world!
God (sighing): There are infinite other worlds. Have a beer. Sorry I forgot your name?
Sounds a bit disappointing.
It is fantastic
The obverse of the cruel nihilism is that glimpse into the deep interior life of reality. If the ayahuasca works, and you don't puke too much, you are privy to the cascading beauty of a conscious universe. A Niagara of a trillion tumbling jewels, forever churning and evanescing, and creating - at least in our prismatic sense - the shot rainbow of human souls
Or Tuesday as they call it in Prudhoe.
Fun fact: 98% of PBers don't know how to pronounce Prudhoe.
Alnwick used to trip me up until I visited it for the first time.
Now, how many PBers can pronounce Slaithwaite correctly?
There are some good ones in Fife - Anstruther, Kilconquar and even Kirkcaldy trip people up.
Kirkcudbright.
I raise you Milngavie.
One of my best friends (east coast Scottish as the day is long) as best man to his brother who was marrying a weegie pronounced it as it looks in his speech, to much hooting.
Garioch - short but un-guessable.
And Greenock is a double-bluff - it is not pronounced "Grennock" but as it reads.
Correct, although after living in Greenock for more than four years I'm still not sure about the first syllable of Gourock. It seems to vary from a hard g to something gooey.
I can confidently pronounce Prudhoe, Slaithwaite and Kirkcudbright (Prudder, Slaithwaite and Kirkcoobree), but I always thought Greenock was pronounced Grennock. Every day's a school day.
Slaithwaite is "Slawit" or "Slowit".
On topic, I don't suppose we know which boxes have been counted yet? I could believe Market Drayton et al going Lib Dem but the more rural wards staying Con, and often the rural ones are slower to come in.
In Birmingham, Alabama, local Black residents have been known to pronounce it "Bmnhm".
Put £20 more on the Lib Dems at 1.72 on the strength of these anecdotes
Joanne Pryce Gallacher @joanne_bbc Green Party candidate @DuncanKer believes @LibDems will take the North Shropshire seat. He’s been on the floor of the count as votes are verified.
After Omicron, I reckon the next variant's going to be so transmissible it's doubling time actually doubles backwards into the past.
I hope you have all done Ayahuasca as I advised. It gives the most exquisite perspective
Panicked Human: OMFG we're all going to die
God (in a bored but tolerant voice): And?
Panicked Human: This is the the end of the world!
God (sighing): There are infinite other worlds. Have a beer. Sorry I forgot your name?
Sounds a bit disappointing.
It is fantastic
The obverse of the cruel nihilism is that glimpse into the deep interior life of reality. If the ayahuasca works, and you don't puke too much, you are privy to the cascading beauty of a conscious universe. A Niagara of a trillion tumbling jewels, forever churning and evanescing, and creating - at least in our prismatic sense - the shot rainbow of human souls
Or Tuesday as they call it in Prudhoe.
Fun fact: 98% of PBers don't know how to pronounce Prudhoe.
Alnwick used to trip me up until I visited it for the first time.
Now, how many PBers can pronounce Slaithwaite correctly?
There are some good ones in Fife - Anstruther, Kilconquar and even Kirkcaldy trip people up.
Kirkcudbright.
I raise you Milngavie.
One of my best friends (east coast Scottish as the day is long) as best man to his brother who was marrying a weegie pronounced it as it looks in his speech, to much hooting.
Garioch - short but un-guessable.
And Greenock is a double-bluff - it is not pronounced "Grennock" but as it reads.
Correct, although after living in Greenock for more than four years I'm still not sure about the first syllable of Gourock. It seems to vary from a hard g to something gooey.
I can confidently pronounce Prudhoe, Slaithwaite and Kirkcudbright (Prudder, Slaithwaite and Kirkcoobree), but I always thought Greenock was pronounced Grennock. Every day's a school day.
Slaithwaite is "Slawit" or "Slowit".
On topic, I don't suppose we know which boxes have been counted yet? I could believe Market Drayton et al going Lib Dem but the more rural wards staying Con, and often the rural ones are slower to come in.
NS live blog - 12:36am And in terms of the votes I observed while at the count, there was a fairly even spread across the three main parties.
SSI - if this is reasonably correct, then could it be that there's a scenario where the Tories could hold the seat, but with such a reduced vote share that it would be a pyrrhic victory?
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico How can policymakers look at their own models of omicron's spread & think a measure such as [closing nightclubs after Boxing Day] has the slightest relevance, either in terms of timescale or effect? The mind boggles.
Regardless of the result, there is an interesting counterfactual in that, when Owen Paterson resigned, the Lib Dems suggested a Martin Bell-style independent anti-sleaze candidate and Labout shot it down.
I'm not exactly sure what we take from that, whether the Lib Dems miss out or win. But it was seriously floated.
Yes but. An anti-sleaze candidate works when your opponent is the sleazy one. Would have had some traction against Paterson. Not otherwise. An official LD Labour pact would need some common policies. And there are significant blockages against that. Not least the one @Cookie noted up thread.
The opponent in this by-election is Boris Johnson.
There's some bloke from Birmingham and some lady who lives more locally whose names are on the ballot paper and you can like them or not.
But let's not forget what a by-election is in this situation. It's essentially a referendum on the performance of the PM.
Well. That is very true. However, that still needs some level of an agreed anti-Boris platform. He's slapdash, bone idle and incompetent. Agreed. But is he too pro-NPI's or not? Is he spending too much or not? There have been moves in Hungary and Brazil to agree such a platform. But Johnson isn't Orban or Bolsonaro just yet.
Regardless of the result, there is an interesting counterfactual in that, when Owen Paterson resigned, the Lib Dems suggested a Martin Bell-style independent anti-sleaze candidate and Labout shot it down.
I'm not exactly sure what we take from that, whether the Lib Dems miss out or win. But it was seriously floated.
Yes but. An anti-sleaze candidate works when your opponent is the sleazy one. Would have had some traction against Paterson. Not otherwise. An official LD Labour pact would need some common policies. And there are significant blockages against that. Not least the one @Cookie noted up thread.
The opponent in this by-election is Boris Johnson.
There's some bloke from Birmingham and some lady who lives more locally whose names are on the ballot paper and you can like them or not.
But let's not forget what a by-election is in this situation. It's essentially a referendum on the performance of the PM.
Well. That is very true. However, that still needs some level of an agreed anti-Boris platform. He's slapdash, bone idle and incompetent. Agreed. But is he too pro-NPI's or not? Is he spending too much or not? There have been moves in Hungary and Brazil to agree such a platform. But Johnson isn't Orban or Bolsonaro just yet.
I agree for a General Election.
But this is a by-election where people simply aren't deciding on those things. The Conservatives had a comfortable majority in Parliament yesterday and will tomorrow. Nothing here, or in Chesham, or in Batley, or in Hartlepool, changes that.
Candidates matter a little, policies matter a little. But, in essence, by-elections are mini-referendums on Governments and PMs.
So absolutely, if this seat changes hands, opposition parties need to seal the deal with policy and personality. But the seat won't have changed hands for those reasons.
So Sky News are going on about the impact of Brexit. And no doubt Tories will have run that line in a 60% Brexit seat, and maybe it will be enough. But, for vast numbers of people, it doesn't matter a damn because they aren't idiots - whichever way this goes has zero chance of changing the position on Brexit.
After Omicron, I reckon the next variant's going to be so transmissible it's doubling time actually doubles backwards into the past.
I hope you have all done Ayahuasca as I advised. It gives the most exquisite perspective
Panicked Human: OMFG we're all going to die
God (in a bored but tolerant voice): And?
Panicked Human: This is the the end of the world!
God (sighing): There are infinite other worlds. Have a beer. Sorry I forgot your name?
Sounds a bit disappointing.
It is fantastic
The obverse of the cruel nihilism is that glimpse into the deep interior life of reality. If the ayahuasca works, and you don't puke too much, you are privy to the cascading beauty of a conscious universe. A Niagara of a trillion tumbling jewels, forever churning and evanescing, and creating - at least in our prismatic sense - the shot rainbow of human souls
Or Tuesday as they call it in Prudhoe.
Fun fact: 98% of PBers don't know how to pronounce Prudhoe.
Alnwick used to trip me up until I visited it for the first time.
Now, how many PBers can pronounce Slaithwaite correctly?
There are some good ones in Fife - Anstruther, Kilconquar and even Kirkcaldy trip people up.
Kirkcudbright.
I raise you Milngavie.
One of my best friends (east coast Scottish as the day is long) as best man to his brother who was marrying a weegie pronounced it as it looks in his speech, to much hooting.
Garioch - short but un-guessable.
And Greenock is a double-bluff - it is not pronounced "Grennock" but as it reads.
Correct, although after living in Greenock for more than four years I'm still not sure about the first syllable of Gourock. It seems to vary from a hard g to something gooey.
I can confidently pronounce Prudhoe, Slaithwaite and Kirkcudbright (Prudder, Slaithwaite and Kirkcoobree), but I always thought Greenock was pronounced Grennock. Every day's a school day.
Slaithwaite is "Slawit" or "Slowit".
On topic, I don't suppose we know which boxes have been counted yet? I could believe Market Drayton et al going Lib Dem but the more rural wards staying Con, and often the rural ones are slower to come in.
"Slathwaite" is also acceptable.
Surprised no one has mentioned how to pronounce Shrewsbury. Given the focus is on Shropshire tonight.
After Omicron, I reckon the next variant's going to be so transmissible it's doubling time actually doubles backwards into the past.
I hope you have all done Ayahuasca as I advised. It gives the most exquisite perspective
Panicked Human: OMFG we're all going to die
God (in a bored but tolerant voice): And?
Panicked Human: This is the the end of the world!
God (sighing): There are infinite other worlds. Have a beer. Sorry I forgot your name?
Sounds a bit disappointing.
It is fantastic
The obverse of the cruel nihilism is that glimpse into the deep interior life of reality. If the ayahuasca works, and you don't puke too much, you are privy to the cascading beauty of a conscious universe. A Niagara of a trillion tumbling jewels, forever churning and evanescing, and creating - at least in our prismatic sense - the shot rainbow of human souls
Or Tuesday as they call it in Prudhoe.
Fun fact: 98% of PBers don't know how to pronounce Prudhoe.
Alnwick used to trip me up until I visited it for the first time.
Now, how many PBers can pronounce Slaithwaite correctly?
There are some good ones in Fife - Anstruther, Kilconquar and even Kirkcaldy trip people up.
Kirkcudbright.
I raise you Milngavie.
One of my best friends (east coast Scottish as the day is long) as best man to his brother who was marrying a weegie pronounced it as it looks in his speech, to much hooting.
Garioch - short but un-guessable.
And Greenock is a double-bluff - it is not pronounced "Grennock" but as it reads.
Correct, although after living in Greenock for more than four years I'm still not sure about the first syllable of Gourock. It seems to vary from a hard g to something gooey.
I can confidently pronounce Prudhoe, Slaithwaite and Kirkcudbright (Prudder, Slaithwaite and Kirkcoobree), but I always thought Greenock was pronounced Grennock. Every day's a school day.
Slaithwaite is "Slawit" or "Slowit".
On topic, I don't suppose we know which boxes have been counted yet? I could believe Market Drayton et al going Lib Dem but the more rural wards staying Con, and often the rural ones are slower to come in.
"Slathwaite" is also acceptable.
Surprised no one has mentioned how to pronounce Shrewsbury. Given the focus is on Shropshire tonight.
Will this be a salopdown for the Tories?
[Would say Shrowsbury here, no idea if that is correct]
NS live blog - 12:36am And in terms of the votes I observed while at the count, there was a fairly even spread across the three main parties.
SSI - if this is reasonably correct, then could it be that there's a scenario where the Tories could hold the seat, but with such a reduced vote share that it would be a pyrrhic victory?
The Tories will be happy to win, regardless of how low their vote share is.
Regardless of the result, there is an interesting counterfactual in that, when Owen Paterson resigned, the Lib Dems suggested a Martin Bell-style independent anti-sleaze candidate and Labout shot it down.
I'm not exactly sure what we take from that, whether the Lib Dems miss out or win. But it was seriously floated.
Yes but. An anti-sleaze candidate works when your opponent is the sleazy one. Would have had some traction against Paterson. Not otherwise. An official LD Labour pact would need some common policies. And there are significant blockages against that. Not least the one @Cookie noted up thread.
The opponent in this by-election is Boris Johnson.
There's some bloke from Birmingham and some lady who lives more locally whose names are on the ballot paper and you can like them or not.
But let's not forget what a by-election is in this situation. It's essentially a referendum on the performance of the PM.
Well. That is very true. However, that still needs some level of an agreed anti-Boris platform. He's slapdash, bone idle and incompetent. Agreed. But is he too pro-NPI's or not? Is he spending too much or not? There have been moves in Hungary and Brazil to agree such a platform. But Johnson isn't Orban or Bolsonaro just yet.
I agree for a General Election.
But this is a by-election where people simply aren't deciding on those things. The Conservatives had a comfortable majority in Parliament yesterday and will tomorrow. Nothing here, or in Chesham, or in Batley, or in Hartlepool, changes that.
Candidates matter a little, policies matter a little. But, in essence, by-elections are mini-referendums on Governments and PMs.
So absolutely, if this seat changes hands, opposition parties need to seal the deal with policy and personality. But the seat won't have changed hands for those reasons.
Mmm. Possibly. You are in danger of local activists throwing in the towel though.
Based on pics & video on the NS live blog, looks to me like the physical setup for tonight's count in Shrewsbury is quite good. From standpoint of efficiency, transparency, accuracy AND COVID safety.
In fact, quite similar to what I saw last year during full hand recount of IIRC around 90k ballots after 2020 general, in legislative race (between two Dems). This was in Seattle. Fewer election workers and observers, but only two candidates and the count was done over several days.
Also same prominence, indeed preponderance, of women in the counting team.
The difference is that here the media don't pretend to know the result before all the votes are counted, unlike in the United States.
Have to say, the Sky coverage is utterly dire. Z-list guests who don't know the first thing about the campaign and how by-elections work trying to keep bored presenters who know even less awake. Dreadful.
Based on pics & video on the NS live blog, looks to me like the physical setup for tonight's count in Shrewsbury is quite good. From standpoint of efficiency, transparency, accuracy AND COVID safety.
In fact, quite similar to what I saw last year during full hand recount of IIRC around 90k ballots after 2020 general, in legislative race (between two Dems). This was in Seattle. Fewer election workers and observers, but only two candidates and the count was done over several days.
Also same prominence, indeed preponderance, of women in the counting team.
The difference is that here the media don't pretend to know the result before all the votes are counted, unlike in the United States.
They didn't do that in the case I just cited.
If you're talking about national elections, different kettle o'fish on either side of the Atlantic (or Pacific).
Based on pics & video on the NS live blog, looks to me like the physical setup for tonight's count in Shrewsbury is quite good. From standpoint of efficiency, transparency, accuracy AND COVID safety.
In fact, quite similar to what I saw last year during full hand recount of IIRC around 90k ballots after 2020 general, in legislative race (between two Dems). This was in Seattle. Fewer election workers and observers, but only two candidates and the count was done over several days.
Also same prominence, indeed preponderance, of women in the counting team.
The difference is that here the media don't pretend to know the result before all the votes are counted, unlike in the United States.
The US media has moved on a fair bit actually; they now pretend to know the result well before any of the votes are even cast.
Regardless of the result, there is an interesting counterfactual in that, when Owen Paterson resigned, the Lib Dems suggested a Martin Bell-style independent anti-sleaze candidate and Labout shot it down.
I'm not exactly sure what we take from that, whether the Lib Dems miss out or win. But it was seriously floated.
Yes but. An anti-sleaze candidate works when your opponent is the sleazy one. Would have had some traction against Paterson. Not otherwise. An official LD Labour pact would need some common policies. And there are significant blockages against that. Not least the one @Cookie noted up thread.
The opponent in this by-election is Boris Johnson.
There's some bloke from Birmingham and some lady who lives more locally whose names are on the ballot paper and you can like them or not.
But let's not forget what a by-election is in this situation. It's essentially a referendum on the performance of the PM.
Well. That is very true. However, that still needs some level of an agreed anti-Boris platform. He's slapdash, bone idle and incompetent. Agreed. But is he too pro-NPI's or not? Is he spending too much or not? There have been moves in Hungary and Brazil to agree such a platform. But Johnson isn't Orban or Bolsonaro just yet.
I agree for a General Election.
But this is a by-election where people simply aren't deciding on those things. The Conservatives had a comfortable majority in Parliament yesterday and will tomorrow. Nothing here, or in Chesham, or in Batley, or in Hartlepool, changes that.
Candidates matter a little, policies matter a little. But, in essence, by-elections are mini-referendums on Governments and PMs.
So absolutely, if this seat changes hands, opposition parties need to seal the deal with policy and personality. But the seat won't have changed hands for those reasons.
Mmm. Possibly. You are in danger of local activists throwing in the towel though.
By "local activists" do you mean deliverers in Wem and Oswestry? Because local activists in that sense don't matter very much in Parliamentary by-elections. They're not, bluntly, the super-canvassers and people putting out a leaflet every 24 hours.
After Omicron, I reckon the next variant's going to be so transmissible it's doubling time actually doubles backwards into the past.
I hope you have all done Ayahuasca as I advised. It gives the most exquisite perspective
Panicked Human: OMFG we're all going to die
God (in a bored but tolerant voice): And?
Panicked Human: This is the the end of the world!
God (sighing): There are infinite other worlds. Have a beer. Sorry I forgot your name?
Sounds a bit disappointing.
It is fantastic
The obverse of the cruel nihilism is that glimpse into the deep interior life of reality. If the ayahuasca works, and you don't puke too much, you are privy to the cascading beauty of a conscious universe. A Niagara of a trillion tumbling jewels, forever churning and evanescing, and creating - at least in our prismatic sense - the shot rainbow of human souls
Or Tuesday as they call it in Prudhoe.
Fun fact: 98% of PBers don't know how to pronounce Prudhoe.
Alnwick used to trip me up until I visited it for the first time.
Now, how many PBers can pronounce Slaithwaite correctly?
There are some good ones in Fife - Anstruther, Kilconquar and even Kirkcaldy trip people up.
Kirkcudbright.
I raise you Milngavie.
One of my best friends (east coast Scottish as the day is long) as best man to his brother who was marrying a weegie pronounced it as it looks in his speech, to much hooting.
Garioch - short but un-guessable.
And Greenock is a double-bluff - it is not pronounced "Grennock" but as it reads.
Correct, although after living in Greenock for more than four years I'm still not sure about the first syllable of Gourock. It seems to vary from a hard g to something gooey.
I can confidently pronounce Prudhoe, Slaithwaite and Kirkcudbright (Prudder, Slaithwaite and Kirkcoobree), but I always thought Greenock was pronounced Grennock. Every day's a school day.
Slaithwaite is "Slawit" or "Slowit".
On topic, I don't suppose we know which boxes have been counted yet? I could believe Market Drayton et al going Lib Dem but the more rural wards staying Con, and often the rural ones are slower to come in.
"Slathwaite" is also acceptable.
Surprised no one has mentioned how to pronounce Shrewsbury. Given the focus is on Shropshire tonight.
After Omicron, I reckon the next variant's going to be so transmissible it's doubling time actually doubles backwards into the past.
I hope you have all done Ayahuasca as I advised. It gives the most exquisite perspective
Panicked Human: OMFG we're all going to die
God (in a bored but tolerant voice): And?
Panicked Human: This is the the end of the world!
God (sighing): There are infinite other worlds. Have a beer. Sorry I forgot your name?
Sounds a bit disappointing.
It is fantastic
The obverse of the cruel nihilism is that glimpse into the deep interior life of reality. If the ayahuasca works, and you don't puke too much, you are privy to the cascading beauty of a conscious universe. A Niagara of a trillion tumbling jewels, forever churning and evanescing, and creating - at least in our prismatic sense - the shot rainbow of human souls
Or Tuesday as they call it in Prudhoe.
Fun fact: 98% of PBers don't know how to pronounce Prudhoe.
Alnwick used to trip me up until I visited it for the first time.
Now, how many PBers can pronounce Slaithwaite correctly?
There are some good ones in Fife - Anstruther, Kilconquar and even Kirkcaldy trip people up.
Kirkcudbright.
I raise you Milngavie.
One of my best friends (east coast Scottish as the day is long) as best man to his brother who was marrying a weegie pronounced it as it looks in his speech, to much hooting.
Garioch - short but un-guessable.
And Greenock is a double-bluff - it is not pronounced "Grennock" but as it reads.
Correct, although after living in Greenock for more than four years I'm still not sure about the first syllable of Gourock. It seems to vary from a hard g to something gooey.
I can confidently pronounce Prudhoe, Slaithwaite and Kirkcudbright (Prudder, Slaithwaite and Kirkcoobree), but I always thought Greenock was pronounced Grennock. Every day's a school day.
Slaithwaite is "Slawit" or "Slowit".
On topic, I don't suppose we know which boxes have been counted yet? I could believe Market Drayton et al going Lib Dem but the more rural wards staying Con, and often the rural ones are slower to come in.
"Slathwaite" is also acceptable.
Surprised no one has mentioned how to pronounce Shrewsbury. Given the focus is on Shropshire tonight.
Will this be a salopdown for the Tories?
[Would say Shrowsbury here, no idea if that is correct]
Have to say, the Sky coverage is utterly dire. Z-list guests who don't know the first thing about the campaign and how by-elections work trying to keep bored presenters who know even less awake. Dreadful.
After Omicron, I reckon the next variant's going to be so transmissible it's doubling time actually doubles backwards into the past.
I hope you have all done Ayahuasca as I advised. It gives the most exquisite perspective
Panicked Human: OMFG we're all going to die
God (in a bored but tolerant voice): And?
Panicked Human: This is the the end of the world!
God (sighing): There are infinite other worlds. Have a beer. Sorry I forgot your name?
Sounds a bit disappointing.
It is fantastic
The obverse of the cruel nihilism is that glimpse into the deep interior life of reality. If the ayahuasca works, and you don't puke too much, you are privy to the cascading beauty of a conscious universe. A Niagara of a trillion tumbling jewels, forever churning and evanescing, and creating - at least in our prismatic sense - the shot rainbow of human souls
Or Tuesday as they call it in Prudhoe.
Fun fact: 98% of PBers don't know how to pronounce Prudhoe.
Alnwick used to trip me up until I visited it for the first time.
Now, how many PBers can pronounce Slaithwaite correctly?
There are some good ones in Fife - Anstruther, Kilconquar and even Kirkcaldy trip people up.
Kirkcudbright.
I raise you Milngavie.
One of my best friends (east coast Scottish as the day is long) as best man to his brother who was marrying a weegie pronounced it as it looks in his speech, to much hooting.
Garioch - short but un-guessable.
And Greenock is a double-bluff - it is not pronounced "Grennock" but as it reads.
Correct, although after living in Greenock for more than four years I'm still not sure about the first syllable of Gourock. It seems to vary from a hard g to something gooey.
I can confidently pronounce Prudhoe, Slaithwaite and Kirkcudbright (Prudder, Slaithwaite and Kirkcoobree), but I always thought Greenock was pronounced Grennock. Every day's a school day.
Slaithwaite is "Slawit" or "Slowit".
On topic, I don't suppose we know which boxes have been counted yet? I could believe Market Drayton et al going Lib Dem but the more rural wards staying Con, and often the rural ones are slower to come in.
"Slathwaite" is also acceptable.
Surprised no one has mentioned how to pronounce Shrewsbury. Given the focus is on Shropshire tonight.
Will this be a salopdown for the Tories?
[Would say Shrowsbury here, no idea if that is correct]
Mark Steel had a long segment on it in Mark Steel's in Town from the very place. Unusually, there doesn't seem to be any local agreement. Nor class distinction. Yours is one. Others say as it is spelled. Another group miss out the R altogether as in Shoes bury.
Regardless of the result, there is an interesting counterfactual in that, when Owen Paterson resigned, the Lib Dems suggested a Martin Bell-style independent anti-sleaze candidate and Labout shot it down.
I'm not exactly sure what we take from that, whether the Lib Dems miss out or win. But it was seriously floated.
Yes but. An anti-sleaze candidate works when your opponent is the sleazy one. Would have had some traction against Paterson. Not otherwise. An official LD Labour pact would need some common policies. And there are significant blockages against that. Not least the one @Cookie noted up thread.
The opponent in this by-election is Boris Johnson.
There's some bloke from Birmingham and some lady who lives more locally whose names are on the ballot paper and you can like them or not.
But let's not forget what a by-election is in this situation. It's essentially a referendum on the performance of the PM.
Well. That is very true. However, that still needs some level of an agreed anti-Boris platform. He's slapdash, bone idle and incompetent. Agreed. But is he too pro-NPI's or not? Is he spending too much or not? There have been moves in Hungary and Brazil to agree such a platform. But Johnson isn't Orban or Bolsonaro just yet.
I agree for a General Election.
But this is a by-election where people simply aren't deciding on those things. The Conservatives had a comfortable majority in Parliament yesterday and will tomorrow. Nothing here, or in Chesham, or in Batley, or in Hartlepool, changes that.
Candidates matter a little, policies matter a little. But, in essence, by-elections are mini-referendums on Governments and PMs.
So absolutely, if this seat changes hands, opposition parties need to seal the deal with policy and personality. But the seat won't have changed hands for those reasons.
Mmm. Possibly. You are in danger of local activists throwing in the towel though.
By "local activists" do you mean deliverers in Wem and Oswestry? Because local activists in that sense don't matter very much in Parliamentary by-elections. They're not, bluntly, the super-canvassers and people putting out a leaflet every 24 hours.
Have to say, the Sky coverage is utterly dire. Z-list guests who don't know the first thing about the campaign and how by-elections work trying to keep bored presenters who know even less awake. Dreadful.
I listen to my EDM and just turn it up when Thrasher or Jon Craig come on.
Interesting nuggets - apparently a 26pc swing is required by the Lib Dems.
Have to say, the Sky coverage is utterly dire. Z-list guests who don't know the first thing about the campaign and how by-elections work trying to keep bored presenters who know even less awake. Dreadful.
I listen to my EDM and just turn it up when Thrasher or Jon Craig come on.
Interesting nuggets - apparently a 26pc swing is required by the Lib Dems.
Yes it was Con 63%, LD 10% last time, with Lab on 22%.
After Omicron, I reckon the next variant's going to be so transmissible it's doubling time actually doubles backwards into the past.
I hope you have all done Ayahuasca as I advised. It gives the most exquisite perspective
Panicked Human: OMFG we're all going to die
God (in a bored but tolerant voice): And?
Panicked Human: This is the the end of the world!
God (sighing): There are infinite other worlds. Have a beer. Sorry I forgot your name?
Sounds a bit disappointing.
It is fantastic
The obverse of the cruel nihilism is that glimpse into the deep interior life of reality. If the ayahuasca works, and you don't puke too much, you are privy to the cascading beauty of a conscious universe. A Niagara of a trillion tumbling jewels, forever churning and evanescing, and creating - at least in our prismatic sense - the shot rainbow of human souls
Or Tuesday as they call it in Prudhoe.
Fun fact: 98% of PBers don't know how to pronounce Prudhoe.
Alnwick used to trip me up until I visited it for the first time.
Now, how many PBers can pronounce Slaithwaite correctly?
There are some good ones in Fife - Anstruther, Kilconquar and even Kirkcaldy trip people up.
Kirkcudbright.
I raise you Milngavie.
One of my best friends (east coast Scottish as the day is long) as best man to his brother who was marrying a weegie pronounced it as it looks in his speech, to much hooting.
Garioch - short but un-guessable.
And Greenock is a double-bluff - it is not pronounced "Grennock" but as it reads.
Correct, although after living in Greenock for more than four years I'm still not sure about the first syllable of Gourock. It seems to vary from a hard g to something gooey.
I can confidently pronounce Prudhoe, Slaithwaite and Kirkcudbright (Prudder, Slaithwaite and Kirkcoobree), but I always thought Greenock was pronounced Grennock. Every day's a school day.
Slaithwaite is "Slawit" or "Slowit".
On topic, I don't suppose we know which boxes have been counted yet? I could believe Market Drayton et al going Lib Dem but the more rural wards staying Con, and often the rural ones are slower to come in.
"Slathwaite" is also acceptable.
Surprised no one has mentioned how to pronounce Shrewsbury. Given the focus is on Shropshire tonight.
I don't think there's one correct way to pronounce it, you can say either of the two ways.
Have to say, the Sky coverage is utterly dire. Z-list guests who don't know the first thing about the campaign and how by-elections work trying to keep bored presenters who know even less awake. Dreadful.
I believe what you have done there is describe Sky News usual output.
Have to say, the Sky coverage is utterly dire. Z-list guests who don't know the first thing about the campaign and how by-elections work trying to keep bored presenters who know even less awake. Dreadful.
I listen to my EDM and just turn it up when Thrasher or Jon Craig come on.
Interesting nuggets - apparently a 26pc swing is required by the Lib Dems.
Yes it was Con 63%, LD 10% last time, with Lab on 22%.
It seems like a rather major swing is required yet they're favourites?
Have to say, the Sky coverage is utterly dire. Z-list guests who don't know the first thing about the campaign and how by-elections work trying to keep bored presenters who know even less awake. Dreadful.
I listen to my EDM and just turn it up when Thrasher or Jon Craig come on.
Interesting nuggets - apparently a 26pc swing is required by the Lib Dems.
Yes it was Con 63%, LD 10% last time, with Lab on 22%.
Growing up not a million miles away from Shrewsbury, at least where I came from Shrows-bury was seen as a bit Mrs Bucket way of pronouncing it, akin to calling it Barrtttth.
Have to say, the Sky coverage is utterly dire. Z-list guests who don't know the first thing about the campaign and how by-elections work trying to keep bored presenters who know even less awake. Dreadful.
I listen to my EDM and just turn it up when Thrasher or Jon Craig come on.
Interesting nuggets - apparently a 26pc swing is required by the Lib Dems.
In what universe is that an "interesting nugget"? That's the difference between the LD and Tory shares in 2019 halved, which can easily be worked out by any halfwit with access to the internet.
Have to say, the Sky coverage is utterly dire. Z-list guests who don't know the first thing about the campaign and how by-elections work trying to keep bored presenters who know even less awake. Dreadful.
I listen to my EDM and just turn it up when Thrasher or Jon Craig come on.
Interesting nuggets - apparently a 26pc swing is required by the Lib Dems.
In what universe is that an "interesting nugget"? That's the difference between the LD and Tory shares in 2019 halved, which can easily be worked out by any halfwit with access to the internet.
LOL - I always get confused by swings; never sure what figure I'm supposed to halve.
I think we'll be relatively OK in the UK tbh, social isolation at Christmas and the harrowing of the hospitality industry the main effects. When it gets into red states in the USA...
I’d be surprised if it isn’t fairly close. We’d know by know if either LDs/con had won a decent majority.
Looks to me like 2/1 on either party was a good bet, in hindsight.
It's the green party anecdote that makes me think the LDs might be ahead. They're as neutral as you'll get - how does it matter to them which variety of blue or yellow capitalism wins the by-election ?
I think we'll be relatively OK in the UK tbh, social isolation at Christmas and the harrowing of the hospitality industry the main effects. When it gets into red states in the USA...
The US are about to run a real world experiment on zero jab, single jab, double jab, triple jab, previous infection, Delta vs Omicron....
I wish them well with this. Many need to start praying to their god.
I’d be surprised if it isn’t fairly close. We’d know by know if either LDs/con had won a decent majority.
Looks to me like 2/1 on either party was a good bet, in hindsight.
It's the green party anecdote that makes me think the LDs might be ahead. They're as neutral as you'll get - how does it matter to them which variety of blue or yellow capitalism wins the by-election ?
Difficult to know. They might be making the common mistake of only looking at boxes from the towns - the rural ones take longer to arrive. But who knows?
Signal or noise?
My last bet was yesterday. I’m letting my book ride.
I’d be surprised if it isn’t fairly close. We’d know by know if either LDs/con had won a decent majority.
Looks to me like 2/1 on either party was a good bet, in hindsight.
It's the green party anecdote that makes me think the LDs might be ahead. They're as neutral as you'll get - how does it matter to them which variety of blue or yellow capitalism wins the by-election ?
Blah blah Progressive Alliance blah blah Boris is Trump blah blah Tory evil cuts murderers blah blah...
I’m off to bed. I still think the Tories have it. That Green candidate is probably clueless, if not he wouldn’t be standing for the Greens in North Shrops.
Comments
Excellent work
@PickardJE
·
1h
ever get the feeling you’ve been cheated
Tune in to PB for all unrivalled coverage of this war. The best analysis, graphics, charts, statistical comparisons of the war against the result of Oxford v Cambridge cricket match 1904, and irreverent references to soccer moms. If this war happens, we will have it all.
ALL VOTES ARE NOW IN.
We're back after a quick stroll around the count and there are a lot of worried faces/happy faces*.
*delete as applicable. "
https://www.bordercountiesadvertizer.co.uk/news/19788472.live-blog-north-shropshire-by-election/
It has been like a snowball decline. Small and almost imperceptible since June, but gathering pace. Difficult to see anything obvious which will stop it.
I wonder what's become of that Boris balloon
It's also the cry of a fanatic, who realises, a million years after his death, that he destroyed his entire civilisation in the quest for purity.
On topic, I don't suppose we know which boxes have been counted yet? I could believe Market Drayton et al going Lib Dem but the more rural wards staying Con, and often the rural ones are slower to come in.
I'm not exactly sure what we take from that, whether the Lib Dems miss out or win. But it was seriously floated.
I'd say probably, with hindsight, it was a mistake by Labour. But that's because the sleaze scandal worsened rather than dissipated, so in fact an independent anti-sleaze candidate may well have romped home. But that wasn't known at the time.
Con 2.38
An anti-sleaze candidate works when your opponent is the sleazy one. Would have had some traction against Paterson. Not otherwise.
An official LD Labour pact would need some common policies. And there are significant blockages against that. Not least the one @Cookie noted up thread.
12:24am
With 14 candidates at the by-election, there are a lot of people in the count and it's a hive of activity.
There are many official people with rosettes and clipboards, the main look of the night, and they are moving around.
The media, which has been based in the indoor bowls centre near the count, are being restricted.
12:16am
ALL VOTES ARE NOW IN.
We're back after a quick stroll around the count and there are a lot of worried faces/happy faces*.
*delete as applicable.
Paloma was one of my chickens.
5 points this week, back behind by Easter
So HYUFD has just shy a million years to go before he face palms himself.
There's some bloke from Birmingham and some lady who lives more locally whose names are on the ballot paper and you can like them or not.
But let's not forget what a by-election is in this situation. It's essentially a referendum on the performance of the PM.
In fact, quite similar to what I saw last year during full hand recount of IIRC around 90k ballots after 2020 general, in legislative race (between two Dems). This was in Seattle. Fewer election workers and observers, but only two candidates and the count was done over several days.
Also same prominence, indeed preponderance, of women in the counting team.
Byeeee
It is obvious to me as it was at the start, that Labour stood a paper candidate here
Joanne Pryce Gallacher
@joanne_bbc
Green Party candidate
@DuncanKer
believes
@LibDems
will take the North Shropshire seat. He’s been on the floor of the count as votes are verified.
This one perhaps the strongest
Has a creepy, shadowy guy been seen asking "What do you want?"
And in terms of the votes I observed while at the count, there was a fairly even spread across the three main parties.
SSI - if this is reasonably correct, then could it be that there's a scenario where the Tories could hold the seat, but with such a reduced vote share that it would be a pyrrhic victory?
Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
How can policymakers look at their own models of omicron's spread & think a measure such as [closing nightclubs after Boxing Day] has the slightest relevance, either in terms of timescale or effect? The mind boggles.
However, that still needs some level of an agreed anti-Boris platform.
He's slapdash, bone idle and incompetent. Agreed. But is he too pro-NPI's or not? Is he spending too much or not?
There have been moves in Hungary and Brazil to agree such a platform.
But Johnson isn't Orban or Bolsonaro just yet.
Lol
LD 35
Lab 14
RefUK 5
Calling it now.
But this is a by-election where people simply aren't deciding on those things. The Conservatives had a comfortable majority in Parliament yesterday and will tomorrow. Nothing here, or in Chesham, or in Batley, or in Hartlepool, changes that.
Candidates matter a little, policies matter a little. But, in essence, by-elections are mini-referendums on Governments and PMs.
So absolutely, if this seat changes hands, opposition parties need to seal the deal with policy and personality. But the seat won't have changed hands for those reasons.
So Sky News are going on about the impact of Brexit. And no doubt Tories will have run that line in a 60% Brexit seat, and maybe it will be enough. But, for vast numbers of people, it doesn't matter a damn because they aren't idiots - whichever way this goes has zero chance of changing the position on Brexit.
“You got any landan in ya? Would ya like some?”
I have seen creepier guys than that.
Seems familiar. Likes his tea.
Is he the outgoing chief exec of Yorkshire Cricket?
[Would say Shrowsbury here, no idea if that is correct]
Possibly. You are in danger of local activists throwing in the towel though.
If you're talking about national elections, different kettle o'fish on either side of the Atlantic (or Pacific).
Well that was a disappointment.
Night, night!
Wink
22:10 - Shrewsbury seems to generate more cheers than shrowsbury.
Con 2.6
But this was before party gate, and before I realised that Lab would put in more than a token effort.
Con 48%
Libs 42%
Lab 2%
Green 3%
Others 5%
Turnout 43%
I’d now go
Con 43%
Libs 40%
Lab 9%
Green 3%
Others 5%
Same turnout.
Unusually, there doesn't seem to be any local agreement. Nor class distinction. Yours is one. Others say as it is spelled. Another group miss out the R altogether as in Shoes bury.
Interesting nuggets - apparently a 26pc swing is required by the Lib Dems.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10317733/Britains-daily-Covid-cases-soar-record-high-Huge-Omicron-drive-spike-sees-88-376-cases.html
Looks to me like 2/1 on either party was a good bet, in hindsight.
When it gets into red states in the USA...
I wish them well with this. Many need to start praying to their god.
Signal or noise?
My last bet was yesterday. I’m letting my book ride.
> "Hrewzhzz-bur"
My guess is, probably not?
Ld 1.73/1.77
Con 2.3/2.36
Lab 400/890
Reform 1000
Green 1000
In WA State, city of Bellingham is often referred to as Hamsterville.
That Green candidate is probably clueless, if not he wouldn’t be standing for the Greens in North Shrops.
Supposedly result due approx 3am Salopian Semi-Standard Time
LDs 1.33/1.4
Con 2.7/3.95