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The week that the polls turned against the Tories – politicalbetting.com

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,270
    edited December 2021

    No major surges nationally but London covid rates increasing in last few days and according to HSAUK have the highest percentage of probable Omicron at 34 percent - so very roughly extrapolate to 4000 new cases daily https://t.co/hNkPFtoMJ0
    You mean

    image

    Sure there is an interesting "kink" in the data around the 29th, but not seeing a step change. Yet.
  • HYUFD said:

    More it seems than you.

    Vaccinations and boosters are the only way out, not another lockdown
    And yet your PM / government are leading us to another lockdown
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,554
    edited December 2021

    You mean

    image

    Sure there is an interesting "kink" in the data around the 29th, but not seeing a step change. Yet.
    I imagine Tim Spector is going off his ZOE app data....that is ahead of the official case trends.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    dixiedean said:

    I know where I got it. I was pretty damn careful being as how my booster was due. A casual chat of half a dozen for less than half an hour in an otherwise empty building.
    The negative LFT despite symptoms is a really worrying development.
    A combination of very high transmissibility and a failure of the rapid tests to detect the disease would probably be enough to defeat the next lockdown. The accumulation of several factors - people in roles that can't be fulfilled from a home office needing to go into workplaces to keep the country running, most of us needing to go shopping and being exposed to hyper-infectious carriers simply walking around a busy supermarket, mandatory self-isolation on a huge scale for close contacts, and Government being forced to order anyone with a cold to stay home until they can get their status confirmed by PCR - would risk bringing even absolutely essential services like the provision of food and medical care to a grinding halt.

    The Government may be desperate to prevent the disease from spreading out of control and overwhelming the hospitals, but firstly the health and care systems will collapse anyway if a substantial proportion of all their staff are self-isolating at once, and secondly society itself will implode if there aren't enough people still working to ensure continuity of grocery, water and power supplies, and of industry and agriculture.

    I can see circumstances under which the Government could be forced to scrap self-isolation and the whole test and trace system, and accept that people who have the illness but are asymptomatic or suffering from the sniffles will have to be let out to keep working, just to stop everything from falling apart. It'd probably finish off the pandemic by spreading natural immunity to virtually everyone whose immune system isn't already able to repel Omicron within a very short space of time, but unless this variant turns out to be very mild indeed that might also end with emergency field hospitals and large scale rationing of life saving care. It is a grim prospect.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,270

    I imagine Tim Spector is going off his ZOE app data....that is ahead of the official case trends.
    No - what he is saying is that he is estimating from data in PCR tests reports that *suggest* Winne-The-Pooh is the variant of COVID being found by the test. Not ZOE data...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,554
    edited December 2021

    No - what he is saying is that he is estimating from data in PCR tests reports that *suggest* Winne-The-Pooh is the variant of COVID being found by the test. Not ZOE data...
    That's not how i read it. I read it as the estimate is 1/3 cases are omicron. Then taken his estimate for current london covid cases and gone from there.

    E.g. he did it here...

    Useful daily data from @AlistairGrant4 showing yesterday around 10% of pcr cases tested in England were Omicron - translates to well over 8000 likely daily cases based on ZOE estimates. Travel restrictions on those coming in look pretty pointless as does track and trace.

    https://twitter.com/timspector/status/1469351222272536577?t=al_4zj-nylI4rCXcscy-Vg&s=19
  • Eswatini COVID update: Cases surge in South Africa's neighbor, nearly all tests positive

    - New cases: 1,002
    - Average: 687 (+114)
    - Positivity rate: 97.3% (+46.3)
    - In hospital: 54
    - New deaths: 0
    - Average: 0 (-)

    That positivity rate......
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,270

    That's not how i read it. I read it as the estimate is 1/3 cases are omicron. Then taken his estimate for current london covid cases and gone from there.
    Ah, I see what you mean.

    The only problem with that is that the we are not seeing the zoom away numbers to match the experiences of places that have got to that kind of level of Winnie-The-Pooh
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,344

    And yet your PM / government are leading us to another lockdown
    To keep us all ticking over he could host a quiz night each week for while we are in lockdown. Instead of "clap for Boris", what about "quiz for Boris". I believe he has recent experience in hosting such events.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,761
    HYUFD said:

    The most supportive of lockdown are mainly Labour voting public sector workers who can wfh indefinitely anyway.

    Most pensioners have had their boosters now so are little affected by Omicron, small businessmen however, Tory core vote in towns and cities up and down the land, would be devastated by another lockdown
    Pensioners due to their age are more likely to catch and die from the disease vaccinated or not. We both know this, and so do they. Deliberately exacerbating their risk will not go down well.

    Lets not pretend small business owners are the biggest Conservative voting block. The Conservative party is reliant upon the retired. lose them and there would be nothing left.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138
    edited December 2021

    Pensioners due to their age are more likely to catch and die from the disease vaccinated or not. We both know this, and so do they. Deliberately exacerbating their risk will not go down well.

    Lets not pretend small business owners are the biggest Conservative voting block. The Conservative party is reliant upon the retired. lose them and there would be nothing left.
    Don't tell me what the Conservative voting block is. The double vaccinated plus boosters have near zero chance of hospitalisation from Omnicron unless near death anyway from pre existing conditions.

    In 2019 however the Tories won all voters over 39, not just all voters over 65. Small businessmen are a pivotal part of the Tory coalition without whom they cannot win.

    As the polling shows most voters do not want another lockdown apart from mainly Labour voting public sector workers and civil servants who will get paid full wages to wfh anyway.

    There will thus be no further lockdown from this Tory government
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,432

    Eswatini COVID update: Cases surge in South Africa's neighbor, nearly all tests positive

    - New cases: 1,002
    - Average: 687 (+114)
    - Positivity rate: 97.3% (+46.3)
    - In hospital: 54
    - New deaths: 0
    - Average: 0 (-)

    That positivity rate......

    That positivity rate means that they're only doing 1,031 tests!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138

    And yet your PM / government are leading us to another lockdown
    They aren't as Boris has made clear. Leftwingers like you are pushing for another lockdown to further expand the power of the state.

    You will not get one
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    One more factor which might conspire to defeat the next lockdown: ennui with the Government, compounded by sheer bloody fatigue.

    But the government’s prospects of successfully imposing new restrictions on the public were questioned on Saturday by senior behavioural experts. They have warned that reports of Downing Street parties, where Covid rules were allegedly flouted last year, have caused widespread anger and resentment.

    “It is always more difficult to re-apply restrictions because people are fatigued and generally fed up,” said Linda Bauld, a professor of public health at Edinburgh University. “But now it’s going to be even harder, because trust has been eroded to a very significant level. People are really fed up with the government. And if you don’t trust the government, why would you do what the government asked you to do?”

    Bauld said it was likely that far more people would flout rules if they were asked to limit numbers allowed indoors at one time, as happened last winter. “Many are likely to say: I’m fed up, I don’t trust this government, and I want to see my friends and family, so I’m just going to ignore the rule.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/12/scientists-fear-falling-trust-in-boris-johnson-could-harm-bid-to-curb-omicron-surge

    I'm sure that Professor Bauld is on the money with her prediction - to say nothing of another factor that is not mentioned in her quoted response. The fear that this will never end, so bearing with the rules in the vain hope of finally seeing the back of cyclical lockdowns (especially if the people who are meeting each other are all relatively low risk anyway) feels utterly futile.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,761
    HYUFD said:

    Don't tell me what the Conservative voting block is. The double vaccinated plus boosters have near zero chance of hospitalisation from Omnicron unless near death anyway from pre existing conditions.

    In 2019 however the Tories win all voters over 39, not just all voters over 65. Small businessmen are a pivotal part of the Tory coalition without whom they cannot win.

    As the polling shows most voters do not want another lockdown apart from mainly Labour voting public sector workers and civil servants who will get paid full wages to wfh anyway.

    There will this be no further lockdown from this Tory government
    Not all voters, a majority of. From which the retired are the largest grouping.

    You stand for the elders of this society. Putting them to the chop would seem a little out of character. But I'll love to see how it is spun.

    As the Conservatives are clearly missing the Cummings brilliancy's. I'll give you a free slogan to pass on.

    'Get Gran's Gaff'


  • pigeon said:

    One more factor which might conspire to defeat the next lockdown: ennui with the Government, compounded by sheer bloody fatigue.

    But the government’s prospects of successfully imposing new restrictions on the public were questioned on Saturday by senior behavioural experts. They have warned that reports of Downing Street parties, where Covid rules were allegedly flouted last year, have caused widespread anger and resentment.

    “It is always more difficult to re-apply restrictions because people are fatigued and generally fed up,” said Linda Bauld, a professor of public health at Edinburgh University. “But now it’s going to be even harder, because trust has been eroded to a very significant level. People are really fed up with the government. And if you don’t trust the government, why would you do what the government asked you to do?”

    Bauld said it was likely that far more people would flout rules if they were asked to limit numbers allowed indoors at one time, as happened last winter. “Many are likely to say: I’m fed up, I don’t trust this government, and I want to see my friends and family, so I’m just going to ignore the rule.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/12/scientists-fear-falling-trust-in-boris-johnson-could-harm-bid-to-curb-omicron-surge

    I'm sure that Professor Bauld is on the money with her prediction - to say nothing of another factor that is not mentioned in her quoted response. The fear that this will never end, so bearing with the rules in the vain hope of finally seeing the back of cyclical lockdowns (especially if the people who are meeting each other are all relatively low risk anyway) feels utterly futile.

    Bauld is clearly from the university of the bleeding obvious.

    I don't know anyone who is prepared to change their xmas plans this year unless they literally have roadblocks set up.

    I think a lot more will fall in line for the lockdown from 3rd Jan, which is my prediction. "We've had xmas, now is the time to keep heads down for a month" etc.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,951

    To keep us all ticking over he could host a quiz night each week for while we are in lockdown. Instead of "clap for Boris", what about "quiz for Boris". I believe he has recent experience in hosting such events.
    If the quiz for Boris is answering rather than asking then we are all in the clarts.
  • rcs1000 said:

    That positivity rate means that they're only doing 1,031 tests!
    At least they are testing the right people. :smiley:
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,270
    rcs1000 said:

    That positivity rate means that they're only doing 1,031 tests!
    Yes - my guess is that they have a limited number of tests and are testing known contacts of hospital patients. And restricting tests to those with symptoms.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,951

    Pensioners due to their age are more likely to catch and die from the disease vaccinated or not. We both know this, and so do they. Deliberately exacerbating their risk will not go down well.

    Lets not pretend small business owners are the biggest Conservative voting block. The Conservative party is reliant upon the retired. lose them and there would be nothing left.
    +1.
    It is a government for the old. They elected it and will sustain it. Their priorities will prevail.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,951
    HYUFD said:

    Don't tell me what the Conservative voting block is. The double vaccinated plus boosters have near zero chance of hospitalisation from Omnicron unless near death anyway from pre existing conditions.

    In 2019 however the Tories won all voters over 39, not just all voters over 65. Small businessmen are a pivotal part of the Tory coalition without whom they cannot win.

    As the polling shows most voters do not want another lockdown apart from mainly Labour voting public sector workers and civil servants who will get paid full wages to wfh anyway.

    There will thus be no further lockdown from this Tory government
    Are public sector workers and civil servants no longer welcome to vote Tory?
    Remember Cameron won teachers in 2010.
    Small business is fine if you want 5% of the vote.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,299
    dixiedean said:

    +1.
    It is a government for the old. They elected it and will sustain it. Their priorities will prevail.
    The Tories might have a much younger leader pretty soon. That might affect their popularity with younger voters.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,951
    Andy_JS said:

    The Tories might have a much younger leader pretty soon. That might affect their popularity with younger voters.
    Indeed.
    But that would require an entirely new set of policies. And voters.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,299
    HYUFD said:

    They aren't as Boris has made clear. Leftwingers like you are pushing for another lockdown to further expand the power of the state.

    You will not get one
    Also let's remember the LDs are against vaccine passports, so if they win the by-election it won't be a mandate for their introduction.
  • Do you do much on video platforms? Zoom, Teams (boo), Webex (fuck no) and Google Meet (yay) - done the lot. Work, social, and a combination of both.

    There is a difference between being on Zoon where you are in the office surrounded by people with remote workers joining remotely and being the remote person. The Mirror article purports that Downing Street was the people hub with lots of illegal people. Which means "he did it on Zoom" is illegal

    Video meetings are now so embedded that people ask "which one". Can I put a word in for Teams being bottom of the pile, preferably buried under 12ft of concrete?
    Nah Teams is great. Use it continuously including to run North Sea and West of Shetlands drilling operations in real time from a study in Lincolnshire for the last 2 years.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,299

    Nah Teams is great. Use it continuously including to run North Sea and West of Shetlands drilling operations in real time from a study in Lincolnshire for the last 2 years.
    How was the job done before video conferencing?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,299

    Maybe I should be worried. I'm 39, I had my second vaccine five months ago and won't get a third until sometime in January I suspect. Have I had covid? Possibly. I haven't worked from home much so it would be a surprise if I hadn't.

    Where is all the evidence that two vaccines don't 'work' on omicron? As the thread shared by Leon suggests not many vaccinated people in Gauteng are being hospitalised.

    I can't imagine anyone as young as 39 being called Frank, no offence.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,813
    Cyclefree said:

    He has been working 11 hour days in his job to earn extra money for the last few weeks and has been completely on his own for most of Covid. He has also suffered from very serious mental health problems in the past. But he has mostly coped fine. Mostly. As you may appreciate these sort of issues place a very great strain on family life so I think it important to try and rebuild and maintain those links and his siblings want that too, as does he - even if he can sometimes be his own worst enemy.

    Currently his shift finishes at 8 pm on Xmas Eve and he starts again on the Monday. There are literally no trains that would get him here and back again so he would be completely alone. He has asked to do an earlier shift and start a later shift on his day back so he can use the train like everyone else. Hopefully his bosses will accommodate him.

    But, especially if a new lockdown happens, I don't want him to be on his own and I want him to feel a part of his family and be here - in our first family Xmas in our new home. As does he.

    Remember also my nephew died by his own hand last year. I do not want my son to feel left out. A car journey - if it has to happen - is a good opportunity for us to have some private time together.
    Good for you, Cyclefree. I hope you have a safe journey.
    (FWIW, I’m slightly surprised at those who don’t go out of their way to help their children.)

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,813

    Its not exactly what most people will have imagined from a Boris party.....very least, i imagined tales of Boris tie on his head, off his tits, dancing on the tables.
    I’m not convinced he’s that much fun.
    Is there any actual evidence of such behaviour, or is it just an image that’s grown up around him ?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,137
    Cyclefree said:

    Well, Boris may well be finished. And I am hardly his greatest fan, as you all well know.

    Still, there's a hell of a lot of groupthink going on this evening.

    Anyway nice to see @Beibheirli_C back.

    The really bad news for me is that Husband, unbeknownst to me, has ordered an organic Turkey from a local farmer for Xmas.

    Yuck! Can't stand the stuff and have only once in my entire life had it for Xmas.

    So I may need to go vegetarian or cook alternative meat. Of course Daughter's place will be open during the day so we won't be eating until the evening anyway by which time, if the whisky treat I have ordered has arrived, I may already have passed out and be quietly snoozing on the sofa.

    Plus Son's shift patterns are so awful that he won't be able to catch a train up north so if he is not to be totally alone I will have to fetch him here and back again, which will mean spending a good deal of the hols on the M6. Yay!

    Put it on eBay, collection only. You may be able to sell it for double as Xmas approaches…
This discussion has been closed.