The week that the polls turned against the Tories – politicalbetting.com

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The week that the polls turned against the Tories – politicalbetting.com

We have had quite a dramatic week in the polls with LAB now recording leads over the Tories that are higher than the margin of error. The reasons have been clear for all to see. Those, like the vast majority of voters, who followed last year’s lockdown regulations are clearly not impressed by what is reported to have gone on at Number10.

Read the full story here

FrancisUrquhart

dixiedean said:

Anyways. The advice from me is
GET YOUR BLOODY BOOSTER ASAP!
Of the 4 cases, one was boostered. The other 3 of us were right on the 6 months or thereabouts limit. Two of us had bookings to get the jab the week we got it.
The other one was in the process of thinking about sorting it.
Don't be like him my friends.

For those that can't get an immediate slot, definitely try other postcodes that surround where you live. I have found in the past who moving out of one "zone" to another got me a booking sooner and the vaccine centre not actually been any further away than the ones that were being suggested when I put in my actual postcode.

IanB2

Third like the Conservatives

JosiasJessop

In a way, the surprising thing is that the government managed to remain generally well in the lead for two years.

But I honestly cannot see the government pulling this back: if only because Johnson isn't very good at managing people.

Stark_Dawning

Looks like Sir Keir's sneering remarks about Peppa Pig World weren't the political toxin that many assumed.

FrancisUrquhart

5th as in when Boris will announce a new lockdown....

IanB2

It isn’t so long since the question was whether a bet on just one poll showing a Labour lead before Xmas was a very *bold* gamble….

MaxPB

Leon said:

Something a bit more cheering. A boffin who predicted US Covid deaths very accurately early on, and was also unpopularly pessimistic about variants, is more upbeat about Omicron. Reckons it is probably mild, maybe very mild

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/09/opinions/infectious-disease-expert-warned-covid-19-deaths-bergen/index.html

Caveat: he also admits he knows even less about this disease then he did a year ago, which is a pretty big pinch of salt

Otherwise there is almost nothing about Omicron on the CNN website. @moonshine is right. It is absent from much international media, even tho it dominates ours. Why is this?

Maybe it is just timing. Omicron has arrived here first (thanks to our many international links, and better sequencing) so we are alerted first. Also, lots of other countries - esp Europe - are still focused on Delta, and their own battles with that

But look at Le Monde. It's not even talking about Delta. Poignantly, for those Scot Nats and Remoaners who believe we think constantly about them while they are barely aware of us, its most read story is about Boris Johnson's party, and one of its main stories if the Brexit fishing squabble. They are obsessed

https://www.lemonde.fr/

The UK seems to have got itself into a complete nonsense panic with Omicron. So far there's little to no evidence that it hospitalised any significant number of vaccinated or naturally immune people. The modellers are just randomly inputting numbers into their shit models to get the desired outcome of lockdown forever.

JosiasJessop

FrancisUrquhart said:

dixiedean said:

Anyways. The advice from me is
GET YOUR BLOODY BOOSTER ASAP!
Of the 4 cases, one was boostered. The other 3 of us were right on the 6 months or thereabouts limit. Two of us had bookings to get the jab the week we got it.
The other one was in the process of thinking about sorting it.
Don't be like him my friends.

For those that can't get an immediate slot, definitely try other postcodes that surround where you live. I have found in the past who moving out of one "zone" to another got me a booking sooner and the vaccine centre not actually been any further away than the ones that were being suggested when I put in my actual postcode.

When you go to manage an existing appointment (as I booked mine what feels like yonks ago now), it only gives you alternative centres nearby; I don't think I could re-enter a postcode.

Not much availability around here; we're getting boostered in Cambridge on Thursday; noting else around (even offering me Saffron Walden) until the 22nd.

FrancisUrquhart

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

Something a bit more cheering. A boffin who predicted US Covid deaths very accurately early on, and was also unpopularly pessimistic about variants, is more upbeat about Omicron. Reckons it is probably mild, maybe very mild

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/09/opinions/infectious-disease-expert-warned-covid-19-deaths-bergen/index.html

Caveat: he also admits he knows even less about this disease then he did a year ago, which is a pretty big pinch of salt

Otherwise there is almost nothing about Omicron on the CNN website. @moonshine is right. It is absent from much international media, even tho it dominates ours. Why is this?

Maybe it is just timing. Omicron has arrived here first (thanks to our many international links, and better sequencing) so we are alerted first. Also, lots of other countries - esp Europe - are still focused on Delta, and their own battles with that

But look at Le Monde. It's not even talking about Delta. Poignantly, for those Scot Nats and Remoaners who believe we think constantly about them while they are barely aware of us, its most read story is about Boris Johnson's party, and one of its main stories if the Brexit fishing squabble. They are obsessed

https://www.lemonde.fr/

The UK seems to have got itself into a complete nonsense panic with Omicron. So far there's little to no evidence that it hospitalised any significant number of vaccinated or naturally immune people. The modellers are just randomly inputting numbers into their shit models to get the desired outcome of lockdown forever.

The problem is nobody ever calls them out on this....every single f##king time they are reported as "fact".

Checks every UK media outlet from left to right, every single one headline....we are going to hell in a hand basket in January.

SandyRentool

I have just downloaded the NHS App and got myself a Vaxport.

"A day in the life of a Socialist citizen."

JBriskin3

I haven't been on the past few days.

The front page of PB seems to be (other than Quincel) Boris is Crap.

Fair and balanced I guess.

Anabobazina

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

Something a bit more cheering. A boffin who predicted US Covid deaths very accurately early on, and was also unpopularly pessimistic about variants, is more upbeat about Omicron. Reckons it is probably mild, maybe very mild

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/09/opinions/infectious-disease-expert-warned-covid-19-deaths-bergen/index.html

Caveat: he also admits he knows even less about this disease then he did a year ago, which is a pretty big pinch of salt

Otherwise there is almost nothing about Omicron on the CNN website. @moonshine is right. It is absent from much international media, even tho it dominates ours. Why is this?

Maybe it is just timing. Omicron has arrived here first (thanks to our many international links, and better sequencing) so we are alerted first. Also, lots of other countries - esp Europe - are still focused on Delta, and their own battles with that

But look at Le Monde. It's not even talking about Delta. Poignantly, for those Scot Nats and Remoaners who believe we think constantly about them while they are barely aware of us, its most read story is about Boris Johnson's party, and one of its main stories if the Brexit fishing squabble. They are obsessed

https://www.lemonde.fr/

The UK seems to have got itself into a complete nonsense panic with Omicron. So far there's little to no evidence that it hospitalised any significant number of vaccinated or naturally immune people. The modellers are just randomly inputting numbers into their shit models to get the desired outcome of lockdown forever.

Maybe. The Americans seem fairly relaxed about it. I think it was @MoonRabbit who pointed out that it is barely even news in the US, France or Japan.

Funny old world.

FrancisUrquhart

JosiasJessop said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

dixiedean said:

Anyways. The advice from me is
GET YOUR BLOODY BOOSTER ASAP!
Of the 4 cases, one was boostered. The other 3 of us were right on the 6 months or thereabouts limit. Two of us had bookings to get the jab the week we got it.
The other one was in the process of thinking about sorting it.
Don't be like him my friends.

For those that can't get an immediate slot, definitely try other postcodes that surround where you live. I have found in the past who moving out of one "zone" to another got me a booking sooner and the vaccine centre not actually been any further away than the ones that were being suggested when I put in my actual postcode.

When you go to manage an existing appointment (as I booked mine what feels like yonks ago now), it only gives you alternative centres nearby; I don't think I could re-enter a postcode.

Not much availability around here; we're getting boostered in Cambridge on Thursday; noting else around (even offering me Saffron Walden) until the 22nd.

Hmmm that's odd. When I got my second shot, I was travelling around for business and not only did I search a load of different postcodes, I cancelled my original booking and rebooked in a totally different part of the country as my plans had changed.

MattW

Stark_Dawning said:

Looks like Sir Keir's sneering remarks about Peppa Pig World weren't the political toxin that many assumed.

Hope he doesn't go back to Peppa Pig world.

He'll get a flea in his ear.

MaxPB

Anabobazina said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

Something a bit more cheering. A boffin who predicted US Covid deaths very accurately early on, and was also unpopularly pessimistic about variants, is more upbeat about Omicron. Reckons it is probably mild, maybe very mild

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/09/opinions/infectious-disease-expert-warned-covid-19-deaths-bergen/index.html

Caveat: he also admits he knows even less about this disease then he did a year ago, which is a pretty big pinch of salt

Otherwise there is almost nothing about Omicron on the CNN website. @moonshine is right. It is absent from much international media, even tho it dominates ours. Why is this?

Maybe it is just timing. Omicron has arrived here first (thanks to our many international links, and better sequencing) so we are alerted first. Also, lots of other countries - esp Europe - are still focused on Delta, and their own battles with that

But look at Le Monde. It's not even talking about Delta. Poignantly, for those Scot Nats and Remoaners who believe we think constantly about them while they are barely aware of us, its most read story is about Boris Johnson's party, and one of its main stories if the Brexit fishing squabble. They are obsessed

https://www.lemonde.fr/

The UK seems to have got itself into a complete nonsense panic with Omicron. So far there's little to no evidence that it hospitalised any significant number of vaccinated or naturally immune people. The modellers are just randomly inputting numbers into their shit models to get the desired outcome of lockdown forever.

Maybe. The Americans seem fairly relaxed about it. I think it was @MoonRabbit who pointed out that it is barely even news in the US, France or Japan.

Funny old world.

Yes, there's not much panic elsewhere in the world. The government needed a way to move the conversation on from dodgy parties and Omicron has given them that, fuck the economy, fuck the people, lockdowns for everyone because Boris wanted to party.

rottenborough

So, PB brains trust. I've had two letters and a txt now in last couple of weeks asking me to book a booster as I am eligible and "our records show you have not had the vaccination booster".

I had my booster at GP a month ago.

Is this just a case of everyone is getting letters regardless or do they have my vax status incorrect?

In which case I may have problem if vaxports includes must have the booster.

FrancisUrquhart

MaxPB said:

Anabobazina said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

Something a bit more cheering. A boffin who predicted US Covid deaths very accurately early on, and was also unpopularly pessimistic about variants, is more upbeat about Omicron. Reckons it is probably mild, maybe very mild

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/09/opinions/infectious-disease-expert-warned-covid-19-deaths-bergen/index.html

Caveat: he also admits he knows even less about this disease then he did a year ago, which is a pretty big pinch of salt

Otherwise there is almost nothing about Omicron on the CNN website. @moonshine is right. It is absent from much international media, even tho it dominates ours. Why is this?

Maybe it is just timing. Omicron has arrived here first (thanks to our many international links, and better sequencing) so we are alerted first. Also, lots of other countries - esp Europe - are still focused on Delta, and their own battles with that

But look at Le Monde. It's not even talking about Delta. Poignantly, for those Scot Nats and Remoaners who believe we think constantly about them while they are barely aware of us, its most read story is about Boris Johnson's party, and one of its main stories if the Brexit fishing squabble. They are obsessed

https://www.lemonde.fr/

The UK seems to have got itself into a complete nonsense panic with Omicron. So far there's little to no evidence that it hospitalised any significant number of vaccinated or naturally immune people. The modellers are just randomly inputting numbers into their shit models to get the desired outcome of lockdown forever.

Maybe. The Americans seem fairly relaxed about it. I think it was @MoonRabbit who pointed out that it is barely even news in the US, France or Japan.

Funny old world.

Yes, there's not much panic elsewhere in the world. The government needed a way to move the conversation on from dodgy parties and Omicron has given them that, fuck the economy, fuck the people, lockdowns for everyone because Boris wanted to party.

They did, but I don't think they phoned up Ferguson et al and demand they produce terrible models....they are happy enough to do that on their own and have been leaking all week that it is all a disaster. All the usual names are now briefing the media that Plan B is no where near enough, we need Plan C, as in C for Constant Lockdown.

JosiasJessop

FrancisUrquhart said:

JosiasJessop said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

dixiedean said:

Anyways. The advice from me is
GET YOUR BLOODY BOOSTER ASAP!
Of the 4 cases, one was boostered. The other 3 of us were right on the 6 months or thereabouts limit. Two of us had bookings to get the jab the week we got it.
The other one was in the process of thinking about sorting it.
Don't be like him my friends.

For those that can't get an immediate slot, definitely try other postcodes that surround where you live. I have found in the past who moving out of one "zone" to another got me a booking sooner and the vaccine centre not actually been any further away than the ones that were being suggested when I put in my actual postcode.

When you go to manage an existing appointment (as I booked mine what feels like yonks ago now), it only gives you alternative centres nearby; I don't think I could re-enter a postcode.

Not much availability around here; we're getting boostered in Cambridge on Thursday; noting else around (even offering me Saffron Walden) until the 22nd.

Hmmm that's odd. When I got my second shot, I was travelling around for business and not only did I search a load of different postcodes, I cancelled my original booking and rebooked in a totally different part of the country as my plans had changed.

I'm going into the manage an existing booking section. It gives you a list of options, and at the bottom there is a button to click if you really want to cancel.

It seems you cancelled first; if so, that probably allows you to enter a postcode.

Obvs I didn't, as none were earlier than the booking.

Cicero

I think that we are beginning to sense that this is the start of a new political phase. We are in a very serious situation: Covid, major economic and trade problems from a bad Brexit and the real possibility of a general European war within a few weeks. The problem is that Boris is a fundamentally unserious person and is clearly not up to the job.

He may well go, but the Tories will be being punished for quite a while yet.

rottenborough

IanB2 said:

It isn’t so long since the question was whether a bet on just one poll showing a Labour lead before Xmas was a very *bold* gamble….

We didn't know then that Johnson was going to do a Ratner, and shit all over his own brand in such a public fashion.

He could be finished by end of the week if a photo does emerge of him lashed up during lockdown with a load of No 10 aides.

SandyRentool

Last night Pippa Crerar was hinting at photos or videos of the No. 10 party.

Let's see if the Sunday Mirror delivers the goods.

Anabobazina

French election betting post:

What do PBers think of Mme Pécresse?

Can she beat Macron?

Are the French prepared to elect a lady pres?

FrancisUrquhart

JosiasJessop said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

JosiasJessop said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

dixiedean said:

Anyways. The advice from me is
GET YOUR BLOODY BOOSTER ASAP!
Of the 4 cases, one was boostered. The other 3 of us were right on the 6 months or thereabouts limit. Two of us had bookings to get the jab the week we got it.
The other one was in the process of thinking about sorting it.
Don't be like him my friends.

For those that can't get an immediate slot, definitely try other postcodes that surround where you live. I have found in the past who moving out of one "zone" to another got me a booking sooner and the vaccine centre not actually been any further away than the ones that were being suggested when I put in my actual postcode.

When you go to manage an existing appointment (as I booked mine what feels like yonks ago now), it only gives you alternative centres nearby; I don't think I could re-enter a postcode.

Not much availability around here; we're getting boostered in Cambridge on Thursday; noting else around (even offering me Saffron Walden) until the 22nd.

Hmmm that's odd. When I got my second shot, I was travelling around for business and not only did I search a load of different postcodes, I cancelled my original booking and rebooked in a totally different part of the country as my plans had changed.

I'm going into the manage an existing booking section. It gives you a list of options, and at the bottom there is a button to click if you really want to cancel.

It seems you cancelled first; if so, that probably allows you to enter a postcode.

Obvs I didn't, as none were earlier than the booking.

Yes, that initial screen is just telling you if there is an option for something sooner in your "region". I am fairly sure if you just cancel and not immediately rebook, you can then re-enter a different postcode.

CorrectHorseBattery

rottenborough said:

IanB2 said:

It isn’t so long since the question was whether a bet on just one poll showing a Labour lead before Xmas was a very *bold* gamble….

We didn't know then that Johnson was going to do a Ratner, and shit all over his own brand in such a public fashion.

He could be finished by end of the week if a photo does emerge of him lashed up during lockdown with a load of No 10 aides.

Ridiculous they called me.

SandyRentool

rottenborough said:

So, PB brains trust. I've had two letters and a txt now in last couple of weeks asking me to book a booster as I am eligible and "our records show you have not had the vaccination booster".

I had my booster at GP a month ago.

Is this just a case of everyone is getting letters regardless or do they have my vax status incorrect?

In which case I may have problem if vaxports includes must have the booster.

If you go on the NHS App it should have a record of your booster.

My wife received a letter saying she could book a booster after she had already had one.

Anabobazina

SandyRentool said:

Last night Pippa Crerar was hinting at photos or videos of the No. 10 party.

Let's see if the Sunday Mirror delivers the goods.

Two separate papers with two separate newsrooms - I think. Why would she gift the scoop to the Sunday?

MattW

SandyRentool said:

I have just downloaded the NHS App and got myself a Vaxport.

"A day in the life of a Socialist citizen."

Your wish...

Leon

My God, the bureaucracy you need to fly anywhere now is indescribable. They really want you to give up

SandyRentool

Anabobazina said:

SandyRentool said:

Last night Pippa Crerar was hinting at photos or videos of the No. 10 party.

Let's see if the Sunday Mirror delivers the goods.

Two separate papers with two separate newsrooms - I think. Why would she gift the scoop to the Sunday?

For the Socialist cause?

TimS

Anabobazina said:

French election betting post:

What do PBers think of Mme Pécresse?

Can she beat Macron?

Are the French prepared to elect a lady pres?

What do I think of Pecresse? Don’t know enough about her but seems reasonably competent, and fairly traditionally conservative.

Can she beat Macron? Yes, I think she can.

Are the French ready to elect a lady pres? Yes, they’ve had a female PM before and plenty of presidential challengers in recent years.

Anabobazina

….

OldKingCole

FrancisUrquhart said:

JosiasJessop said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

JosiasJessop said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

dixiedean said:

Anyways. The advice from me is
GET YOUR BLOODY BOOSTER ASAP!
Of the 4 cases, one was boostered. The other 3 of us were right on the 6 months or thereabouts limit. Two of us had bookings to get the jab the week we got it.
The other one was in the process of thinking about sorting it.
Don't be like him my friends.

For those that can't get an immediate slot, definitely try other postcodes that surround where you live. I have found in the past who moving out of one "zone" to another got me a booking sooner and the vaccine centre not actually been any further away than the ones that were being suggested when I put in my actual postcode.

When you go to manage an existing appointment (as I booked mine what feels like yonks ago now), it only gives you alternative centres nearby; I don't think I could re-enter a postcode.

Not much availability around here; we're getting boostered in Cambridge on Thursday; noting else around (even offering me Saffron Walden) until the 22nd.

Hmmm that's odd. When I got my second shot, I was travelling around for business and not only did I search a load of different postcodes, I cancelled my original booking and rebooked in a totally different part of the country as my plans had changed.

I'm going into the manage an existing booking section. It gives you a list of options, and at the bottom there is a button to click if you really want to cancel.

It seems you cancelled first; if so, that probably allows you to enter a postcode.

Obvs I didn't, as none were earlier than the booking.

Yes, that initial screen is just telling you if there is an option for something sooner in your "region". I am fairly sure if you just cancel and not immediately rebook, you can then re-enter a different postcode.

I know it's quite a way from you but Colchester Football Ground (not on a Sat, obvs.) doesn't seem that busy.

FrancisUrquhart

Leon said:

My God, the bureaucracy you need to fly anywhere now is indescribable. They really want you to give up

The question is will it ever go away, or will it now be like the anti-terrorism stuff?

HYUFD

Polling not great for Boris at present.

However, provided he keeps the Labour lead under 10% and the Tories scrape home in North Shropshire he should avoid a no confidence vote for now

MaxPB

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

Anabobazina said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

Something a bit more cheering. A boffin who predicted US Covid deaths very accurately early on, and was also unpopularly pessimistic about variants, is more upbeat about Omicron. Reckons it is probably mild, maybe very mild

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/09/opinions/infectious-disease-expert-warned-covid-19-deaths-bergen/index.html

Caveat: he also admits he knows even less about this disease then he did a year ago, which is a pretty big pinch of salt

Otherwise there is almost nothing about Omicron on the CNN website. @moonshine is right. It is absent from much international media, even tho it dominates ours. Why is this?

Maybe it is just timing. Omicron has arrived here first (thanks to our many international links, and better sequencing) so we are alerted first. Also, lots of other countries - esp Europe - are still focused on Delta, and their own battles with that

But look at Le Monde. It's not even talking about Delta. Poignantly, for those Scot Nats and Remoaners who believe we think constantly about them while they are barely aware of us, its most read story is about Boris Johnson's party, and one of its main stories if the Brexit fishing squabble. They are obsessed

https://www.lemonde.fr/

The UK seems to have got itself into a complete nonsense panic with Omicron. So far there's little to no evidence that it hospitalised any significant number of vaccinated or naturally immune people. The modellers are just randomly inputting numbers into their shit models to get the desired outcome of lockdown forever.

Maybe. The Americans seem fairly relaxed about it. I think it was @MoonRabbit who pointed out that it is barely even news in the US, France or Japan.

Funny old world.

Yes, there's not much panic elsewhere in the world. The government needed a way to move the conversation on from dodgy parties and Omicron has given them that, fuck the economy, fuck the people, lockdowns for everyone because Boris wanted to party.

They did, but I don't think they phoned up Ferguson et al and demand they produce terrible models....they are happy enough to do that on their own and have been leaking all week that it is all a disaster. All the usual names are now briefing the media that Plan B is no where near enough, we need Plan C, as in C for Constant Lockdown.

Yet we've got Gove briefing the press openly and privately about the need for tougher messages and suddenly the doom models are leaking again just as Gove starts ramping a new lockdown.

The media agenda is slowly being moved on from government impropriety to the threat of new lockdowns, the strategy is working.

Anabobazina

TimS said:

Anabobazina said:

French election betting post:

What do PBers think of Mme Pécresse?

Can she beat Macron?

Are the French prepared to elect a lady pres?

What do I think of Pecresse? Don’t know enough about her but seems reasonably competent, and fairly traditionally conservative.

Can she beat Macron? Yes, I think she can.

Are the French ready to elect a lady pres? Yes, they’ve had a female PM before and plenty of presidential challengers in recent years.

Will be an exciting race. She is well to the right of me but I think she’s an interesting candidate, and part of me would like to see Macron ousted even if by someone who is from the other side of politics to me!

IanB2

HYUFD said:

Polling not great for Boris at present.

However, provided he keeps the Labour lead under 10% and the Tories scrape home in North Shropshire he should avoid a no confidence vote for now

The most downbeat-on-the-Tories post from HY ever seen?

Stuartinromford

rottenborough said:

IanB2 said:

It isn’t so long since the question was whether a bet on just one poll showing a Labour lead before Xmas was a very *bold* gamble….

We didn't know then that Johnson was going to do a Ratner, and shit all over his own brand in such a public fashion.

He could be finished by end of the week if a photo does emerge of him lashed up during lockdown with a load of No 10 aides.

It was always pretty likely that BoJo would do something like this at some point... the question was more "when" than "if".

The more intriguing question is the one about the medium-term drift. Since his Hartlepool High, a peak gap of 12 points has been closing at about 2 points a month. For most of that time, things hadn't been going that badly, had they?

The last month and a half, Paterson, Peppa Pig and Parties... oh momma.

HYUFD

Anabobazina said:

French election betting post:

What do PBers think of Mme Pécresse?

Can she beat Macron?

Are the French prepared to elect a lady pres?

Yes, latest Elabe runoff poll is Pecresse 52% Macron 48%. Poll before from Ifop had it Macron 52% Pecresse 48%. Pecresse now a clear second in round 1 so would make the runoff.

https://elabe.fr/presidentielle-2022-5/

She also would be the first female French President. The French presidential election will be the most important western election globally next year and Les Republicains certainly have a chance of winning after what will be 10 years out of power and out of the Elysee

FrancisUrquhart

Some good and bad stats from SA...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2vI4XczqZ8

Again more reports of milder, but much younger people in hospital. Now is it the later means the former, or just that the later aren't vaccinated or that really just a mild variant.

Leon

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

Something a bit more cheering. A boffin who predicted US Covid deaths very accurately early on, and was also unpopularly pessimistic about variants, is more upbeat about Omicron. Reckons it is probably mild, maybe very mild

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/09/opinions/infectious-disease-expert-warned-covid-19-deaths-bergen/index.html

Caveat: he also admits he knows even less about this disease then he did a year ago, which is a pretty big pinch of salt

Otherwise there is almost nothing about Omicron on the CNN website. @moonshine is right. It is absent from much international media, even tho it dominates ours. Why is this?

Maybe it is just timing. Omicron has arrived here first (thanks to our many international links, and better sequencing) so we are alerted first. Also, lots of other countries - esp Europe - are still focused on Delta, and their own battles with that

But look at Le Monde. It's not even talking about Delta. Poignantly, for those Scot Nats and Remoaners who believe we think constantly about them while they are barely aware of us, its most read story is about Boris Johnson's party, and one of its main stories if the Brexit fishing squabble. They are obsessed

https://www.lemonde.fr/

The UK seems to have got itself into a complete nonsense panic with Omicron. So far there's little to no evidence that it hospitalised any significant number of vaccinated or naturally immune people. The modellers are just randomly inputting numbers into their shit models to get the desired outcome of lockdown forever.

I genuinely can't work out if we have lost our minds, or we are on the ball, and the rest of the world does not realise what is about to happen

MrEd

TimS said:

Anabobazina said:

French election betting post:

What do PBers think of Mme Pécresse?

Can she beat Macron?

Are the French prepared to elect a lady pres?

What do I think of Pecresse? Don’t know enough about her but seems reasonably competent, and fairly traditionally conservative.

Can she beat Macron? Yes, I think she can.

Are the French ready to elect a lady pres? Yes, they’ve had a female PM before and plenty of presidential challengers in recent years.

I think there is a good chance with her entry that Macron gets booted out in the first round. In fact, it is easy to see a repeat of what happened in the LR run-off that saw Pecresse of the four top candidates (Macron, Pecresse, Le Pen and Zemmour) coming very close in first round votes and Macron to go out this way.

My question would be are the French ready for five more years of essentially much the same agenda under a different name. Pecresse is not a radical change, she would be asking for plus ca change with a few tweaks. I think that gets her home in a run-off with Macron (where there are many people who detest Macron and would vote for whoever opposed him), I'm not sure if it came down to Pecresse vs Le Pen or Pecresse vs Zemmour - I think in the latter case she would just about win, in the former I think she would lose.

Leon

PB Brains Trust, has anyone flown BA recently?

To get on board, you need to fill in a new Covid safety form online. This requires a vaxport - fine, easy, the NHS app. This also requires a Spanish Health Pass - slightly tricker, but takes a few minutes of confusing faff, but done now

But THEN they ask you for a Passenger Locator Form. Something you literally cannot fill in until 2 days before you RETURN to the UK. I only fly OUT tomorrow, back midweek

WTF is this madness? Has anyone encountered it and solved it?

HYUFD

MrEd said:

TimS said:

Anabobazina said:

French election betting post:

What do PBers think of Mme Pécresse?

Can she beat Macron?

Are the French prepared to elect a lady pres?

What do I think of Pecresse? Don’t know enough about her but seems reasonably competent, and fairly traditionally conservative.

Can she beat Macron? Yes, I think she can.

Are the French ready to elect a lady pres? Yes, they’ve had a female PM before and plenty of presidential challengers in recent years.

I think there is a good chance with her entry that Macron gets booted out in the first round. In fact, it is easy to see a repeat of what happened in the LR run-off that saw Pecresse of the four top candidates (Macron, Pecresse, Le Pen and Zemmour) coming very close in first round votes and Macron to go out this way.

My question would be are the French ready for five more years of essentially much the same agenda under a different name. Pecresse is not a radical change, she would be asking for plus ca change with a few tweaks. I think that gets her home in a run-off with Macron (where there are many people who detest Macron and would vote for whoever opposed him), I'm not sure if it came down to Pecresse vs Le Pen or Pecresse vs Zemmour - I think in the latter case she would just about win, in the former I think she would lose.

No, Pecresse would trounce Zemmour and easily beat Le Pen as Macron voters and the left would vote for her. Similarly Macron would easily beat Zemmour and comfortably beat Le Pen as Pecresse voters and the left would mostly vote for him.

However Pecresse could beat Macron as Le Pen and Zemmour voters would vote for her over Macron

Leon

TimS said:

Anabobazina said:

French election betting post:

What do PBers think of Mme Pécresse?

Can she beat Macron?

Are the French prepared to elect a lady pres?

What do I think of Pecresse? Don’t know enough about her but seems reasonably competent, and fairly traditionally conservative.

Can she beat Macron? Yes, I think she can.

Are the French ready to elect a lady pres? Yes, they’ve had a female PM before and plenty of presidential challengers in recent years.

I think she will win. Macron is not liked, and the French are in a rebellious mood (as ever) but they are not ready to go for one of the far right challengers

turbotubbs

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

Something a bit more cheering. A boffin who predicted US Covid deaths very accurately early on, and was also unpopularly pessimistic about variants, is more upbeat about Omicron. Reckons it is probably mild, maybe very mild

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/09/opinions/infectious-disease-expert-warned-covid-19-deaths-bergen/index.html

Caveat: he also admits he knows even less about this disease then he did a year ago, which is a pretty big pinch of salt

Otherwise there is almost nothing about Omicron on the CNN website. @moonshine is right. It is absent from much international media, even tho it dominates ours. Why is this?

Maybe it is just timing. Omicron has arrived here first (thanks to our many international links, and better sequencing) so we are alerted first. Also, lots of other countries - esp Europe - are still focused on Delta, and their own battles with that

But look at Le Monde. It's not even talking about Delta. Poignantly, for those Scot Nats and Remoaners who believe we think constantly about them while they are barely aware of us, its most read story is about Boris Johnson's party, and one of its main stories if the Brexit fishing squabble. They are obsessed

https://www.lemonde.fr/

The UK seems to have got itself into a complete nonsense panic with Omicron. So far there's little to no evidence that it hospitalised any significant number of vaccinated or naturally immune people. The modellers are just randomly inputting numbers into their shit models to get the desired outcome of lockdown forever.

I genuinely can't work out if we have lost our minds, or we are on the ball, and the rest of the world does not realise what is about to happen

I think that those at the top have taken a proportionate response. Increase some low level mitigation’s and ramp boosters as fast as possible. There is no panic at that level. As I think others are suggesting it’s likely lockdown talk is partly to get public compliance, but also media management to move on from the parties.
On PB, on the other hand, there are many posters who really fear a new lockdown, and have let their fear of such cloud their judgement of what is likely to happen. No doubt some will say I am too optomistic, but I just cannot see the whole panoply of furlough, closed hospitality etc being deployed again.
On what we should do, the Times editorial is strong on suggesting tighter measures must target the unvaccinated. Restrict their lives, not those who have done the right thing for society. Hard to disagree.

RochdalePioneers

HYUFD said:

Polling not great for Boris at present.

However, provided he keeps the Labour lead under 10% and the Tories scrape home in North Shropshire he should avoid a no confidence vote for now

Is that the best you've got?

No concern for the proven lies. Corruption. Incompetence. Just "he can avoid a no-confidence motion for now"

It's like listening to the aides of former President Nixon insisting the man who resigned for being a crook wasn't a crook.

Wulfrun_Phil

rottenborough said:

So, PB brains trust. I've had two letters and a txt now in last couple of weeks asking me to book a booster as I am eligible and "our records show you have not had the vaccination booster".

I had my booster at GP a month ago.

Is this just a case of everyone is getting letters regardless or do they have my vax status incorrect?

In which case I may have problem if vaxports includes must have the booster.

I had exactly the same situation with incorrect letters and texts having had the booster a month ago. I phoned 119. The bloke who answered said that he had had loads of the same phone call today and there was clearly something wrong in the system.

When I asked for a paper Covid Pass it also came through with just the first two vaccinations recorded, no booster. 119 said that that was normal for now, systems hadn't yet been updated to record the booster on anyones printed pass, in contrast to the App (which I haven't yet downloaded but I am assured shows me having had the booster.)

Stocky

Leon said:

PB Brains Trust, has anyone flown BA recently?

To get on board, you need to fill in a new Covid safety form online. This requires a vaxport - fine, easy, the NHS app. This also requires a Spanish Health Pass - slightly tricker, but takes a few minutes of confusing faff, but done now

But THEN they ask you for a Passenger Locator Form. Something you literally cannot fill in until 2 days before you RETURN to the UK. I only fly OUT tomorrow, back midweek

WTF is this madness? Has anyone encountered it and solved it?

I think it means the Spanish Passenger Locator Form. See below:

https://www.spth.gob.es/

Edit: where to? Fuerteventura?

dixiedean

LFC penalty at Anfield? Salah goes down easily?
Tell me it ain't so?

ping

Liverpool penalty

ping

ping said:

Liverpool penalty

1-0

Leon

turbotubbs said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

Something a bit more cheering. A boffin who predicted US Covid deaths very accurately early on, and was also unpopularly pessimistic about variants, is more upbeat about Omicron. Reckons it is probably mild, maybe very mild

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/09/opinions/infectious-disease-expert-warned-covid-19-deaths-bergen/index.html

Caveat: he also admits he knows even less about this disease then he did a year ago, which is a pretty big pinch of salt

Otherwise there is almost nothing about Omicron on the CNN website. @moonshine is right. It is absent from much international media, even tho it dominates ours. Why is this?

Maybe it is just timing. Omicron has arrived here first (thanks to our many international links, and better sequencing) so we are alerted first. Also, lots of other countries - esp Europe - are still focused on Delta, and their own battles with that

But look at Le Monde. It's not even talking about Delta. Poignantly, for those Scot Nats and Remoaners who believe we think constantly about them while they are barely aware of us, its most read story is about Boris Johnson's party, and one of its main stories if the Brexit fishing squabble. They are obsessed

https://www.lemonde.fr/

The UK seems to have got itself into a complete nonsense panic with Omicron. So far there's little to no evidence that it hospitalised any significant number of vaccinated or naturally immune people. The modellers are just randomly inputting numbers into their shit models to get the desired outcome of lockdown forever.

I genuinely can't work out if we have lost our minds, or we are on the ball, and the rest of the world does not realise what is about to happen

I think that those at the top have taken a proportionate response. Increase some low level mitigation’s and ramp boosters as fast as possible. There is no panic at that level. As I think others are suggesting it’s likely lockdown talk is partly to get public compliance, but also media management to move on from the parties.
On PB, on the other hand, there are many posters who really fear a new lockdown, and have let their fear of such cloud their judgement of what is likely to happen. No doubt some will say I am too optomistic, but I just cannot see the whole panoply of furlough, closed hospitality etc being deployed again.
On what we should do, the Times editorial is strong on suggesting tighter measures must target the unvaccinated. Restrict their lives, not those who have done the right thing for society. Hard to disagree.

On that last point, yes. Make the lives of the unvaxxed virtually unliveable before we go anywhere near "lockdown"

IanB2

Leon said:

PB Brains Trust, has anyone flown BA recently?

To get on board, you need to fill in a new Covid safety form online. This requires a vaxport - fine, easy, the NHS app. This also requires a Spanish Health Pass - slightly tricker, but takes a few minutes of confusing faff, but done now

But THEN they ask you for a Passenger Locator Form. Something you literally cannot fill in until 2 days before you RETURN to the UK. I only fly OUT tomorrow, back midweek

WTF is this madness? Has anyone encountered it and solved it?

You don’t need to do the PLF bit until your return flight.

NerysHughes

FrancisUrquhart said:

Some good and bad stats from SA...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2vI4XczqZ8

Again more reports of milder, but much younger people in hospital. Now is it the later means the former, or just that the later aren't vaccinated or that really just a mild variant.

It's astoundingly good news, just 6 Covid patients in 17 hospitals being ventilated

Andy_JS

"Good fortune with omicron
Dr John Campbell"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2vI4XczqZ8

Leon

IanB2 said:

Leon said:

PB Brains Trust, has anyone flown BA recently?

To get on board, you need to fill in a new Covid safety form online. This requires a vaxport - fine, easy, the NHS app. This also requires a Spanish Health Pass - slightly tricker, but takes a few minutes of confusing faff, but done now

But THEN they ask you for a Passenger Locator Form. Something you literally cannot fill in until 2 days before you RETURN to the UK. I only fly OUT tomorrow, back midweek

WTF is this madness? Has anyone encountered it and solved it?

You don’t need to do the PLF bit until your return flight.

That's what I am presuming, but boy they don't make that clear. Incredibly confusing, and I am quite an experienced Covid traveller

Leon

Stocky said:

Leon said:

PB Brains Trust, has anyone flown BA recently?

To get on board, you need to fill in a new Covid safety form online. This requires a vaxport - fine, easy, the NHS app. This also requires a Spanish Health Pass - slightly tricker, but takes a few minutes of confusing faff, but done now

But THEN they ask you for a Passenger Locator Form. Something you literally cannot fill in until 2 days before you RETURN to the UK. I only fly OUT tomorrow, back midweek

WTF is this madness? Has anyone encountered it and solved it?

I think it means the Spanish Passenger Locator Form. See below:

https://www.spth.gob.es/

Edit: where to? Fuerteventura?

Menorca

kinabalu

turbotubbs said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

Something a bit more cheering. A boffin who predicted US Covid deaths very accurately early on, and was also unpopularly pessimistic about variants, is more upbeat about Omicron. Reckons it is probably mild, maybe very mild

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/09/opinions/infectious-disease-expert-warned-covid-19-deaths-bergen/index.html

Caveat: he also admits he knows even less about this disease then he did a year ago, which is a pretty big pinch of salt

Otherwise there is almost nothing about Omicron on the CNN website. @moonshine is right. It is absent from much international media, even tho it dominates ours. Why is this?

Maybe it is just timing. Omicron has arrived here first (thanks to our many international links, and better sequencing) so we are alerted first. Also, lots of other countries - esp Europe - are still focused on Delta, and their own battles with that

But look at Le Monde. It's not even talking about Delta. Poignantly, for those Scot Nats and Remoaners who believe we think constantly about them while they are barely aware of us, its most read story is about Boris Johnson's party, and one of its main stories if the Brexit fishing squabble. They are obsessed

https://www.lemonde.fr/

The UK seems to have got itself into a complete nonsense panic with Omicron. So far there's little to no evidence that it hospitalised any significant number of vaccinated or naturally immune people. The modellers are just randomly inputting numbers into their shit models to get the desired outcome of lockdown forever.

I genuinely can't work out if we have lost our minds, or we are on the ball, and the rest of the world does not realise what is about to happen

I think that those at the top have taken a proportionate response. Increase some low level mitigation’s and ramp boosters as fast as possible. There is no panic at that level. As I think others are suggesting it’s likely lockdown talk is partly to get public compliance, but also media management to move on from the parties.
On PB, on the other hand, there are many posters who really fear a new lockdown, and have let their fear of such cloud their judgement of what is likely to happen. No doubt some will say I am too optomistic, but I just cannot see the whole panoply of furlough, closed hospitality etc being deployed again.
On what we should do, the Times editorial is strong on suggesting tighter measures must target the unvaccinated. Restrict their lives, not those who have done the right thing for society. Hard to disagree.

A good take, I think. Of course there COULD be another Lockdown but the evidence isn't there atm for saying it's inevitable or even close. And there is no way it would be brought in except as a Plan Z. My expectation is a protracted period of restrictions short of Lockdown. Defining Lockdown as a stay at home order plus hospitality and leisure and non-essential shops closed plus mandatory WFH for all bar key workers.

Mexicanpete

NerysHughes said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Some good and bad stats from SA...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2vI4XczqZ8

Again more reports of milder, but much younger people in hospital. Now is it the later means the former, or just that the later aren't vaccinated or that really just a mild variant.

It's astoundingly good news, just 6 Covid patients in 17 hospitals being ventilated

Can you explain the discrepancy between your constant stream of good Omicron news and the barage of reports on modelling which anticipates between 25,000 and 75,000 dead in England by April as reported on BBC News among others?

FWIW I hope you are correct and the BBC source is wrong.

dixiedean

Leon said:

Stocky said:

Leon said:

PB Brains Trust, has anyone flown BA recently?

To get on board, you need to fill in a new Covid safety form online. This requires a vaxport - fine, easy, the NHS app. This also requires a Spanish Health Pass - slightly tricker, but takes a few minutes of confusing faff, but done now

But THEN they ask you for a Passenger Locator Form. Something you literally cannot fill in until 2 days before you RETURN to the UK. I only fly OUT tomorrow, back midweek

WTF is this madness? Has anyone encountered it and solved it?

I think it means the Spanish Passenger Locator Form. See below:

https://www.spth.gob.es/

Edit: where to? Fuerteventura?

Menorca

Have a great time. I love Menorca. My fave of the Spanish isles.

Leon

kinabalu said:

turbotubbs said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

Something a bit more cheering. A boffin who predicted US Covid deaths very accurately early on, and was also unpopularly pessimistic about variants, is more upbeat about Omicron. Reckons it is probably mild, maybe very mild

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/09/opinions/infectious-disease-expert-warned-covid-19-deaths-bergen/index.html

Caveat: he also admits he knows even less about this disease then he did a year ago, which is a pretty big pinch of salt

Otherwise there is almost nothing about Omicron on the CNN website. @moonshine is right. It is absent from much international media, even tho it dominates ours. Why is this?

Maybe it is just timing. Omicron has arrived here first (thanks to our many international links, and better sequencing) so we are alerted first. Also, lots of other countries - esp Europe - are still focused on Delta, and their own battles with that

But look at Le Monde. It's not even talking about Delta. Poignantly, for those Scot Nats and Remoaners who believe we think constantly about them while they are barely aware of us, its most read story is about Boris Johnson's party, and one of its main stories if the Brexit fishing squabble. They are obsessed

https://www.lemonde.fr/

The UK seems to have got itself into a complete nonsense panic with Omicron. So far there's little to no evidence that it hospitalised any significant number of vaccinated or naturally immune people. The modellers are just randomly inputting numbers into their shit models to get the desired outcome of lockdown forever.

I genuinely can't work out if we have lost our minds, or we are on the ball, and the rest of the world does not realise what is about to happen

I think that those at the top have taken a proportionate response. Increase some low level mitigation’s and ramp boosters as fast as possible. There is no panic at that level. As I think others are suggesting it’s likely lockdown talk is partly to get public compliance, but also media management to move on from the parties.
On PB, on the other hand, there are many posters who really fear a new lockdown, and have let their fear of such cloud their judgement of what is likely to happen. No doubt some will say I am too optomistic, but I just cannot see the whole panoply of furlough, closed hospitality etc being deployed again.
On what we should do, the Times editorial is strong on suggesting tighter measures must target the unvaccinated. Restrict their lives, not those who have done the right thing for society. Hard to disagree.

A good take, I think. Of course there COULD be another Lockdown but the evidence isn't there atm for saying it's inevitable or even close. And there is no way it would be brought in except as a Plan Z. My expectation is a protracted period of restrictions short of Lockdown. Defining Lockdown as a stay at home order plus hospitality and leisure and non-essential shops closed plus mandatory WFH for all bar key workers.

The evidence is there that the scientific and medical establishment is REALLY pushing for lockdown, however

And usually they win, in the end

kamski

Just checked out of curiosity how obsessed Le Monde are. Currently the first story connected to Britain is 13 stories down (about fishing licences) though it's actually about French fishers getting licences so not really foreign news. You have to scroll quite a lot further down to read about Johnson's latest scandals, which is understandable. It's hardly news that he's a lying chancer.

Leon

dixiedean said:

Leon said:

Stocky said:

Leon said:

PB Brains Trust, has anyone flown BA recently?

To get on board, you need to fill in a new Covid safety form online. This requires a vaxport - fine, easy, the NHS app. This also requires a Spanish Health Pass - slightly tricker, but takes a few minutes of confusing faff, but done now

But THEN they ask you for a Passenger Locator Form. Something you literally cannot fill in until 2 days before you RETURN to the UK. I only fly OUT tomorrow, back midweek

WTF is this madness? Has anyone encountered it and solved it?

I think it means the Spanish Passenger Locator Form. See below:

https://www.spth.gob.es/

Edit: where to? Fuerteventura?

Menorca

Have a great time. I love Menorca. My fave of the Spanish isles.

I'm lying. It's another of the Balearics (maybe)! But as I am doing ayahuasca with a well known person, I am being discreet


Tho I agree with you entirely about Menorca. Lovely place, great food, the best of the Balearics for sure

MaxPB

Leon said:

PB Brains Trust, has anyone flown BA recently?

To get on board, you need to fill in a new Covid safety form online. This requires a vaxport - fine, easy, the NHS app. This also requires a Spanish Health Pass - slightly tricker, but takes a few minutes of confusing faff, but done now

But THEN they ask you for a Passenger Locator Form. Something you literally cannot fill in until 2 days before you RETURN to the UK. I only fly OUT tomorrow, back midweek

WTF is this madness? Has anyone encountered it and solved it?

They might mean the Spanish PLF.

Richard_Tyndall

On topic

It is quite remarkable in my mind but just to repeat what I have been saying for a while now, most recently last night.

My attitude to all the main parties has long been one of a plague on all your houses. But with a long standing philosophical bias against Labour and socialism in general even of the Lib Dem kind. This has meant that whilst I have not been able to vote for the Tories for the past 2 decades at the same time I have always deep down been relieved when they won rather than Labour and fearful when they lost.

Since Johnson and Starmer became the opposing leaders that has changed. Even in the 2019 election, whilst I couldn't vote Tory, at the same time I genuinely feared a Corbyn Government. Now that has gone completely. I am sure that as I am relatively comfortable a Labour administration would not be good for me personally and I am still very opposed to many of their more 'progressive' ideas. But I no longer fear them. I genuinely never thought there would come a day when I would be welcoming the fact that Labour were ahead of the Tories. I am today.

Leon

Mexicanpete said:

NerysHughes said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Some good and bad stats from SA...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2vI4XczqZ8

Again more reports of milder, but much younger people in hospital. Now is it the later means the former, or just that the later aren't vaccinated or that really just a mild variant.

It's astoundingly good news, just 6 Covid patients in 17 hospitals being ventilated

Can you explain the discrepancy between your constant stream of good Omicron news and the barage of reports on modelling which anticipates between 25,000 and 75,000 dead in England by April as reported on BBC News among others?

FWIW I hope you are correct and the BBC source is wrong.

25,000 dead by spring is not remotely alarming. At the moment we are averaging 150 dead a day. Times by 100 days and that's 15,000. So Omicron only needs to nudge it up a bit (and remember it will get worse in deep winter anyway) and you hit 25,000

pigeon

turbotubbs said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

Something a bit more cheering. A boffin who predicted US Covid deaths very accurately early on, and was also unpopularly pessimistic about variants, is more upbeat about Omicron. Reckons it is probably mild, maybe very mild

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/09/opinions/infectious-disease-expert-warned-covid-19-deaths-bergen/index.html

Caveat: he also admits he knows even less about this disease then he did a year ago, which is a pretty big pinch of salt

Otherwise there is almost nothing about Omicron on the CNN website. @moonshine is right. It is absent from much international media, even tho it dominates ours. Why is this?

Maybe it is just timing. Omicron has arrived here first (thanks to our many international links, and better sequencing) so we are alerted first. Also, lots of other countries - esp Europe - are still focused on Delta, and their own battles with that

But look at Le Monde. It's not even talking about Delta. Poignantly, for those Scot Nats and Remoaners who believe we think constantly about them while they are barely aware of us, its most read story is about Boris Johnson's party, and one of its main stories if the Brexit fishing squabble. They are obsessed

https://www.lemonde.fr/

The UK seems to have got itself into a complete nonsense panic with Omicron. So far there's little to no evidence that it hospitalised any significant number of vaccinated or naturally immune people. The modellers are just randomly inputting numbers into their shit models to get the desired outcome of lockdown forever.

I genuinely can't work out if we have lost our minds, or we are on the ball, and the rest of the world does not realise what is about to happen

I think that those at the top have taken a proportionate response. Increase some low level mitigation’s and ramp boosters as fast as possible. There is no panic at that level. As I think others are suggesting it’s likely lockdown talk is partly to get public compliance, but also media management to move on from the parties.
On PB, on the other hand, there are many posters who really fear a new lockdown, and have let their fear of such cloud their judgement of what is likely to happen. No doubt some will say I am too optomistic, but I just cannot see the whole panoply of furlough, closed hospitality etc being deployed again.
On what we should do, the Times editorial is strong on suggesting tighter measures must target the unvaccinated. Restrict their lives, not those who have done the right thing for society. Hard to disagree.

A very large fraction of the population, especially those aged between about 40 and 70, have been double jabbed with AZ - which, it transpires, is completely useless at protecting you against infection. At the rate that this expands, the very large fraction of us that can't obtain a Pfizer booster for weeks (my appointment is for the 29th, I daren't cancel it and try to get anything sooner because there probably aren't any slots left, so I'm basically down to going to a walk-in centre early next week and praying they've got sufficient supply) might as well resign ourselves to catching it.

A sufficiently large number of cases (even if Omicron is somewhat less harmful than Delta) = too many hospital patients = lockdown.

Omicron has now been with us for a little while, and the boffins will be looking very closely at the hospitalisation data as it comes in. If the explosion in cases and the percentage of infections leading to hospitalisation are both large enough, we've had it.

Given the preliminary findings about the transmissibility of Omicron and that so many of us are completely defenceless against infection, an explosion in cases seems inevitable - so it's all on how many of us get really sick. My own confidence on that front has collapsed. I'm not certain a lockdown announcement is coming next Saturday, but I think it quite likely. And once they do it, we know how that plays out. We'll be under house arrest for months and months and months.

Leon

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

PB Brains Trust, has anyone flown BA recently?

To get on board, you need to fill in a new Covid safety form online. This requires a vaxport - fine, easy, the NHS app. This also requires a Spanish Health Pass - slightly tricker, but takes a few minutes of confusing faff, but done now

But THEN they ask you for a Passenger Locator Form. Something you literally cannot fill in until 2 days before you RETURN to the UK. I only fly OUT tomorrow, back midweek

WTF is this madness? Has anyone encountered it and solved it?

They might mean the Spanish PLF.

I think they do, but they don't specify and THEN they ask for the Spanish Pass as well. Bewildering

FrancisUrquhart

Leon said:

dixiedean said:

Leon said:

Stocky said:

Leon said:

PB Brains Trust, has anyone flown BA recently?

To get on board, you need to fill in a new Covid safety form online. This requires a vaxport - fine, easy, the NHS app. This also requires a Spanish Health Pass - slightly tricker, but takes a few minutes of confusing faff, but done now

But THEN they ask you for a Passenger Locator Form. Something you literally cannot fill in until 2 days before you RETURN to the UK. I only fly OUT tomorrow, back midweek

WTF is this madness? Has anyone encountered it and solved it?

I think it means the Spanish Passenger Locator Form. See below:

https://www.spth.gob.es/

Edit: where to? Fuerteventura?

Menorca

Have a great time. I love Menorca. My fave of the Spanish isles.

I'm lying. It's another of the Balearics (maybe)! But as I am doing ayahuasca with a well known person, I am being discreet


Tho I agree with you entirely about Menorca. Lovely place, great food, the best of the Balearics for sure

Just say Ibiza....we know its Ibiza....

rcs1000

rottenborough said:

So, PB brains trust. I've had two letters and a txt now in last couple of weeks asking me to book a booster as I am eligible and "our records show you have not had the vaccination booster".

I had my booster at GP a month ago.

Is this just a case of everyone is getting letters regardless or do they have my vax status incorrect?

In which case I may have problem if vaxports includes must have the booster.

One of the symptoms of omicron is false recall.

jonny83

Mexicanpete said:

NerysHughes said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Some good and bad stats from SA...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2vI4XczqZ8

Again more reports of milder, but much younger people in hospital. Now is it the later means the former, or just that the later aren't vaccinated or that really just a mild variant.

It's astoundingly good news, just 6 Covid patients in 17 hospitals being ventilated

Can you explain the discrepancy between your constant stream of good Omicron news and the barage of reports on modelling which anticipates between 25,000 and 75,000 dead in England by April as reported on BBC News among others?

FWIW I hope you are correct and the BBC source is wrong.

We have an older population so I expect we will fare worse than SA, how much worse depends on how the boosters hold up.

My guess is it's not that much milder, maybe by a Midge's Dick less severe, what's skewing what we are seeing in SA is its much younger population at play.

kinabalu

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

turbotubbs said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

Something a bit more cheering. A boffin who predicted US Covid deaths very accurately early on, and was also unpopularly pessimistic about variants, is more upbeat about Omicron. Reckons it is probably mild, maybe very mild

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/09/opinions/infectious-disease-expert-warned-covid-19-deaths-bergen/index.html

Caveat: he also admits he knows even less about this disease then he did a year ago, which is a pretty big pinch of salt

Otherwise there is almost nothing about Omicron on the CNN website. @moonshine is right. It is absent from much international media, even tho it dominates ours. Why is this?

Maybe it is just timing. Omicron has arrived here first (thanks to our many international links, and better sequencing) so we are alerted first. Also, lots of other countries - esp Europe - are still focused on Delta, and their own battles with that

But look at Le Monde. It's not even talking about Delta. Poignantly, for those Scot Nats and Remoaners who believe we think constantly about them while they are barely aware of us, its most read story is about Boris Johnson's party, and one of its main stories if the Brexit fishing squabble. They are obsessed

https://www.lemonde.fr/

The UK seems to have got itself into a complete nonsense panic with Omicron. So far there's little to no evidence that it hospitalised any significant number of vaccinated or naturally immune people. The modellers are just randomly inputting numbers into their shit models to get the desired outcome of lockdown forever.

I genuinely can't work out if we have lost our minds, or we are on the ball, and the rest of the world does not realise what is about to happen

I think that those at the top have taken a proportionate response. Increase some low level mitigation’s and ramp boosters as fast as possible. There is no panic at that level. As I think others are suggesting it’s likely lockdown talk is partly to get public compliance, but also media management to move on from the parties.
On PB, on the other hand, there are many posters who really fear a new lockdown, and have let their fear of such cloud their judgement of what is likely to happen. No doubt some will say I am too optomistic, but I just cannot see the whole panoply of furlough, closed hospitality etc being deployed again.
On what we should do, the Times editorial is strong on suggesting tighter measures must target the unvaccinated. Restrict their lives, not those who have done the right thing for society. Hard to disagree.

A good take, I think. Of course there COULD be another Lockdown but the evidence isn't there atm for saying it's inevitable or even close. And there is no way it would be brought in except as a Plan Z. My expectation is a protracted period of restrictions short of Lockdown. Defining Lockdown as a stay at home order plus hospitality and leisure and non-essential shops closed plus mandatory WFH for all bar key workers.

The evidence is there that the scientific and medical establishment is REALLY pushing for lockdown, however

And usually they win, in the end

That's not the pandemic I've seen. What I've seen - here - is the government bringing in restrictions if anything a touch late and showing little inclination to keep them once the numbers have reliably subsided.

Stocky

pigeon said:

turbotubbs said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

Something a bit more cheering. A boffin who predicted US Covid deaths very accurately early on, and was also unpopularly pessimistic about variants, is more upbeat about Omicron. Reckons it is probably mild, maybe very mild

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/09/opinions/infectious-disease-expert-warned-covid-19-deaths-bergen/index.html

Caveat: he also admits he knows even less about this disease then he did a year ago, which is a pretty big pinch of salt

Otherwise there is almost nothing about Omicron on the CNN website. @moonshine is right. It is absent from much international media, even tho it dominates ours. Why is this?

Maybe it is just timing. Omicron has arrived here first (thanks to our many international links, and better sequencing) so we are alerted first. Also, lots of other countries - esp Europe - are still focused on Delta, and their own battles with that

But look at Le Monde. It's not even talking about Delta. Poignantly, for those Scot Nats and Remoaners who believe we think constantly about them while they are barely aware of us, its most read story is about Boris Johnson's party, and one of its main stories if the Brexit fishing squabble. They are obsessed

https://www.lemonde.fr/

The UK seems to have got itself into a complete nonsense panic with Omicron. So far there's little to no evidence that it hospitalised any significant number of vaccinated or naturally immune people. The modellers are just randomly inputting numbers into their shit models to get the desired outcome of lockdown forever.

I genuinely can't work out if we have lost our minds, or we are on the ball, and the rest of the world does not realise what is about to happen

I think that those at the top have taken a proportionate response. Increase some low level mitigation’s and ramp boosters as fast as possible. There is no panic at that level. As I think others are suggesting it’s likely lockdown talk is partly to get public compliance, but also media management to move on from the parties.
On PB, on the other hand, there are many posters who really fear a new lockdown, and have let their fear of such cloud their judgement of what is likely to happen. No doubt some will say I am too optomistic, but I just cannot see the whole panoply of furlough, closed hospitality etc being deployed again.
On what we should do, the Times editorial is strong on suggesting tighter measures must target the unvaccinated. Restrict their lives, not those who have done the right thing for society. Hard to disagree.

A very large fraction of the population, especially those aged between about 40 and 70, have been double jabbed with AZ - which, it transpires, is completely useless at protecting you against infection. At the rate that this expands, the very large fraction of us that can't obtain a Pfizer booster for weeks (my appointment is for the 29th, I daren't cancel it and try to get anything sooner because there probably aren't any slots left, so I'm basically down to going to a walk-in centre early next week and praying they've got sufficient supply) might as well resign ourselves to catching it.

A sufficiently large number of cases (even if Omicron is somewhat less harmful than Delta) = too many hospital patients = lockdown.

Omicron has now been with us for a little while, and the boffins will be looking very closely at the hospitalisation data as it comes in. If the explosion in cases and the percentage of infections leading to hospitalisation are both large enough, we've had it.

Given the preliminary findings about the transmissibility of Omicron and that so many of us are completely defenceless against infection, an explosion in cases seems inevitable - so it's all on how many of us get really sick. My own confidence on that front has collapsed. I'm not certain a lockdown announcement is coming next Saturday, but I think it quite likely. And once they do it, we know how that plays out. We'll be under house arrest for months and months and months.

I'm scooting out - can someone pull that apart - I disagree with all of it.

FrancisUrquhart

Leon said:

Mexicanpete said:

NerysHughes said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Some good and bad stats from SA...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2vI4XczqZ8

Again more reports of milder, but much younger people in hospital. Now is it the later means the former, or just that the later aren't vaccinated or that really just a mild variant.

It's astoundingly good news, just 6 Covid patients in 17 hospitals being ventilated

Can you explain the discrepancy between your constant stream of good Omicron news and the barage of reports on modelling which anticipates between 25,000 and 75,000 dead in England by April as reported on BBC News among others?

FWIW I hope you are correct and the BBC source is wrong.

25,000 dead by spring is not remotely alarming. At the moment we are averaging 150 dead a day. Times by 100 days and that's 15,000. So Omicron only needs to nudge it up a bit (and remember it will get worse in deep winter anyway) and you hit 25,000

One thing during this pandemic is that people have lost any sort of wider proportionality of just how many people die each day in a population of 65+ million people. 100 people dying a day from a disease is not usually even worth more than a few sentences on page 28 of the newspapers in relation to an article talking about better funding

MaxPB

jonny83 said:

Mexicanpete said:

NerysHughes said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Some good and bad stats from SA...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2vI4XczqZ8

Again more reports of milder, but much younger people in hospital. Now is it the later means the former, or just that the later aren't vaccinated or that really just a mild variant.

It's astoundingly good news, just 6 Covid patients in 17 hospitals being ventilated

Can you explain the discrepancy between your constant stream of good Omicron news and the barage of reports on modelling which anticipates between 25,000 and 75,000 dead in England by April as reported on BBC News among others?

FWIW I hope you are correct and the BBC source is wrong.

We have a older population so I expect we will fare worse than SA, how much worse depends on how the boosters hold up.

My guess is it's not that much milder, maybe by a Midge's Dick less severe, what's skewing what we are seeing in SA is its much younger population at play.

We also don't have 25% of adults HIV positive. The UK and SA aren't comparable at all.

Leon

kamski said:

Just checked out of curiosity how obsessed Le Monde are. Currently the first story connected to Britain is 13 stories down (about fishing licences) though it's actually about French fishers getting licences so not really foreign news. You have to scroll quite a lot further down to read about Johnson's latest scandals, which is understandable. It's hardly news that he's a lying chancer.

Johnson is the most read story. Dimwit

Leon

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

Mexicanpete said:

NerysHughes said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Some good and bad stats from SA...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2vI4XczqZ8

Again more reports of milder, but much younger people in hospital. Now is it the later means the former, or just that the later aren't vaccinated or that really just a mild variant.

It's astoundingly good news, just 6 Covid patients in 17 hospitals being ventilated

Can you explain the discrepancy between your constant stream of good Omicron news and the barage of reports on modelling which anticipates between 25,000 and 75,000 dead in England by April as reported on BBC News among others?

FWIW I hope you are correct and the BBC source is wrong.

25,000 dead by spring is not remotely alarming. At the moment we are averaging 150 dead a day. Times by 100 days and that's 15,000. So Omicron only needs to nudge it up a bit (and remember it will get worse in deep winter anyway) and you hit 25,000

One thing during this pandemic is that people have lost any sort of wider proportionality of just how many people die each day in a population of 65+ million people.

Quite so

Andy_JS

rottenborough said:

So, PB brains trust. I've had two letters and a txt now in last couple of weeks asking me to book a booster as I am eligible and "our records show you have not had the vaccination booster".

I had my booster at GP a month ago.

Is this just a case of everyone is getting letters regardless or do they have my vax status incorrect?

In which case I may have problem if vaxports includes must have the booster.

I'm getting a text nearly every day from my local surgery urging me to have a booster jab.

I had a booster jab about 3 months ago.

IanB2

Leon said:

kamski said:

Just checked out of curiosity how obsessed Le Monde are. Currently the first story connected to Britain is 13 stories down (about fishing licences) though it's actually about French fishers getting licences so not really foreign news. You have to scroll quite a lot further down to read about Johnson's latest scandals, which is understandable. It's hardly news that he's a lying chancer.

Johnson is the most read story. Dimwit

Says the man struggling to fill in some basic information in order to be allowed onto an aeroplane….

Leon

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

Mexicanpete said:

NerysHughes said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Some good and bad stats from SA...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2vI4XczqZ8

Again more reports of milder, but much younger people in hospital. Now is it the later means the former, or just that the later aren't vaccinated or that really just a mild variant.

It's astoundingly good news, just 6 Covid patients in 17 hospitals being ventilated

Can you explain the discrepancy between your constant stream of good Omicron news and the barage of reports on modelling which anticipates between 25,000 and 75,000 dead in England by April as reported on BBC News among others?

FWIW I hope you are correct and the BBC source is wrong.

25,000 dead by spring is not remotely alarming. At the moment we are averaging 150 dead a day. Times by 100 days and that's 15,000. So Omicron only needs to nudge it up a bit (and remember it will get worse in deep winter anyway) and you hit 25,000

One thing during this pandemic is that people have lost any sort of wider proportionality of just how many people die each day in a population of 65+ million people. 100 people dying a day from a disease is not usually even worth more than a few sentences on page 28 of the newspapers in relation to an article talking about better funding

Yes, 25,000 dead over an entire winter would be a rather bad flu season, which might make a headline once or twice - 22,000 died of flu in 2017-18. Yet I don't recall the entire nation shutting down

FrancisUrquhart

Farooq said:

MaxPB said:

jonny83 said:

Mexicanpete said:

NerysHughes said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Some good and bad stats from SA...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2vI4XczqZ8

Again more reports of milder, but much younger people in hospital. Now is it the later means the former, or just that the later aren't vaccinated or that really just a mild variant.

It's astoundingly good news, just 6 Covid patients in 17 hospitals being ventilated

Can you explain the discrepancy between your constant stream of good Omicron news and the barage of reports on modelling which anticipates between 25,000 and 75,000 dead in England by April as reported on BBC News among others?

FWIW I hope you are correct and the BBC source is wrong.

We have a older population so I expect we will fare worse than SA, how much worse depends on how the boosters hold up.

My guess is it's not that much milder, maybe by a Midge's Dick less severe, what's skewing what we are seeing in SA is its much younger population at play.

We also don't have 25% of adults HIV positive. The UK and SA aren't comparable at all.

What effect does HIV positivity have on Covid-19?

Comprised immune system.

IanB2

Farooq said:

MaxPB said:

jonny83 said:

Mexicanpete said:

NerysHughes said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Some good and bad stats from SA...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2vI4XczqZ8

Again more reports of milder, but much younger people in hospital. Now is it the later means the former, or just that the later aren't vaccinated or that really just a mild variant.

It's astoundingly good news, just 6 Covid patients in 17 hospitals being ventilated

Can you explain the discrepancy between your constant stream of good Omicron news and the barage of reports on modelling which anticipates between 25,000 and 75,000 dead in England by April as reported on BBC News among others?

FWIW I hope you are correct and the BBC source is wrong.

We have a older population so I expect we will fare worse than SA, how much worse depends on how the boosters hold up.

My guess is it's not that much milder, maybe by a Midge's Dick less severe, what's skewing what we are seeing in SA is its much younger population at play.

We also don't have 25% of adults HIV positive. The UK and SA aren't comparable at all.

What effect does HIV positivity have on Covid-19?

There’s a good chance it’s why we have the new variant in the first place, for one

NerysHughes

Mexicanpete said:

NerysHughes said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Some good and bad stats from SA...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2vI4XczqZ8

Again more reports of milder, but much younger people in hospital. Now is it the later means the former, or just that the later aren't vaccinated or that really just a mild variant.

It's astoundingly good news, just 6 Covid patients in 17 hospitals being ventilated

Can you explain the discrepancy between your constant stream of good Omicron news and the barage of reports on modelling which anticipates between 25,000 and 75,000 dead in England by April as reported on BBC News among others?

FWIW I hope you are correct and the BBC source is wrong.

I can't explain it, in Feb 2020, the news from Italy was the headline all the time as it was bad news. The news from SA is incredibly good. Virtually no one is being admitted for just Covid. In June SA ran out of oxygen, now just 700 people are on oxygen out of a population of 60 million with a Covid positive test and some of those will not be because of Covid. Why the BBC are not leading with this real world data but with some fame hungry scientists model is beyond me.

Andy_JS

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

Mexicanpete said:

NerysHughes said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Some good and bad stats from SA...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2vI4XczqZ8

Again more reports of milder, but much younger people in hospital. Now is it the later means the former, or just that the later aren't vaccinated or that really just a mild variant.

It's astoundingly good news, just 6 Covid patients in 17 hospitals being ventilated

Can you explain the discrepancy between your constant stream of good Omicron news and the barage of reports on modelling which anticipates between 25,000 and 75,000 dead in England by April as reported on BBC News among others?

FWIW I hope you are correct and the BBC source is wrong.

25,000 dead by spring is not remotely alarming. At the moment we are averaging 150 dead a day. Times by 100 days and that's 15,000. So Omicron only needs to nudge it up a bit (and remember it will get worse in deep winter anyway) and you hit 25,000

One thing during this pandemic is that people have lost any sort of wider proportionality of just how many people die each day in a population of 65+ million people. 100 people dying a day from a disease is not usually even worth more than a few sentences on page 28 of the newspapers in relation to an article talking about better funding

Absolutely. If the government published how many people were dying of flu every day, we'd all be terrified of flu.

Scott_xP

...

FrancisUrquhart

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

Mexicanpete said:

NerysHughes said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Some good and bad stats from SA...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2vI4XczqZ8

Again more reports of milder, but much younger people in hospital. Now is it the later means the former, or just that the later aren't vaccinated or that really just a mild variant.

It's astoundingly good news, just 6 Covid patients in 17 hospitals being ventilated

Can you explain the discrepancy between your constant stream of good Omicron news and the barage of reports on modelling which anticipates between 25,000 and 75,000 dead in England by April as reported on BBC News among others?

FWIW I hope you are correct and the BBC source is wrong.

25,000 dead by spring is not remotely alarming. At the moment we are averaging 150 dead a day. Times by 100 days and that's 15,000. So Omicron only needs to nudge it up a bit (and remember it will get worse in deep winter anyway) and you hit 25,000

One thing during this pandemic is that people have lost any sort of wider proportionality of just how many people die each day in a population of 65+ million people. 100 people dying a day from a disease is not usually even worth more than a few sentences on page 28 of the newspapers in relation to an article talking about better funding

Yes, 25,000 dead over an entire winter would be a rather bad flu season, which might make a headline once or twice - 22,000 died of flu in 2017-18. Yet I don't recall the entire nation shutting down

That is why when we got down to ~100-150 a day dying (remember also we are gold plating all of this "with covid") I became really quite relaxed about the situation. At that level, it is literally anti-vaxxers and very old people, who would be susceptible to a nasty flu etc.

kinabalu

My best to worst hierarchy of the options is as below:

1. Restrictions.
2. Short Lockdown.
3. Mandatory vaccination (via vaxports).
4. Long Lockdown.

Hopefully 1 will be sufficient.

Omnium

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

Mexicanpete said:

NerysHughes said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Some good and bad stats from SA...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2vI4XczqZ8

Again more reports of milder, but much younger people in hospital. Now is it the later means the former, or just that the later aren't vaccinated or that really just a mild variant.

It's astoundingly good news, just 6 Covid patients in 17 hospitals being ventilated

Can you explain the discrepancy between your constant stream of good Omicron news and the barage of reports on modelling which anticipates between 25,000 and 75,000 dead in England by April as reported on BBC News among others?

FWIW I hope you are correct and the BBC source is wrong.

25,000 dead by spring is not remotely alarming. At the moment we are averaging 150 dead a day. Times by 100 days and that's 15,000. So Omicron only needs to nudge it up a bit (and remember it will get worse in deep winter anyway) and you hit 25,000

One thing during this pandemic is that people have lost any sort of wider proportionality of just how many people die each day in a population of 65+ million people. 100 people dying a day from a disease is not usually even worth more than a few sentences on page 28 of the newspapers in relation to an article talking about better funding

Yes, 25,000 dead over an entire winter would be a rather bad flu season, which might make a headline once or twice - 22,000 died of flu in 2017-18. Yet I don't recall the entire nation shutting down

I'm sort of guessing that's because you weren't around then.

Leon

Omnium said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

Mexicanpete said:

NerysHughes said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Some good and bad stats from SA...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2vI4XczqZ8

Again more reports of milder, but much younger people in hospital. Now is it the later means the former, or just that the later aren't vaccinated or that really just a mild variant.

It's astoundingly good news, just 6 Covid patients in 17 hospitals being ventilated

Can you explain the discrepancy between your constant stream of good Omicron news and the barage of reports on modelling which anticipates between 25,000 and 75,000 dead in England by April as reported on BBC News among others?

FWIW I hope you are correct and the BBC source is wrong.

25,000 dead by spring is not remotely alarming. At the moment we are averaging 150 dead a day. Times by 100 days and that's 15,000. So Omicron only needs to nudge it up a bit (and remember it will get worse in deep winter anyway) and you hit 25,000

One thing during this pandemic is that people have lost any sort of wider proportionality of just how many people die each day in a population of 65+ million people. 100 people dying a day from a disease is not usually even worth more than a few sentences on page 28 of the newspapers in relation to an article talking about better funding

Yes, 25,000 dead over an entire winter would be a rather bad flu season, which might make a headline once or twice - 22,000 died of flu in 2017-18. Yet I don't recall the entire nation shutting down

I'm sort of guessing that's because you weren't around then.

You think I am 2 years old? I understand I can seem youthfully excitable at times, but still

Andy_JS

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

Mexicanpete said:

NerysHughes said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Some good and bad stats from SA...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2vI4XczqZ8

Again more reports of milder, but much younger people in hospital. Now is it the later means the former, or just that the later aren't vaccinated or that really just a mild variant.

It's astoundingly good news, just 6 Covid patients in 17 hospitals being ventilated

Can you explain the discrepancy between your constant stream of good Omicron news and the barage of reports on modelling which anticipates between 25,000 and 75,000 dead in England by April as reported on BBC News among others?

FWIW I hope you are correct and the BBC source is wrong.

25,000 dead by spring is not remotely alarming. At the moment we are averaging 150 dead a day. Times by 100 days and that's 15,000. So Omicron only needs to nudge it up a bit (and remember it will get worse in deep winter anyway) and you hit 25,000

One thing during this pandemic is that people have lost any sort of wider proportionality of just how many people die each day in a population of 65+ million people. 100 people dying a day from a disease is not usually even worth more than a few sentences on page 28 of the newspapers in relation to an article talking about better funding

Yes, 25,000 dead over an entire winter would be a rather bad flu season, which might make a headline once or twice - 22,000 died of flu in 2017-18. Yet I don't recall the entire nation shutting down

There was a terrible flu pandemic in 1968/69. Most people I've spoken to who were around at that time can't even remember it, including someone who was working in health care at the time.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_flu

FrancisUrquhart

kinabalu said:

My best to worst hierarchy of the options is as below:

1. Restrictions.
2. Short Lockdown.
3. Mandatory vaccination (via vaxports).
4. Long Lockdown.

Hopefully 1 will be sufficient.

If we go lockdown route, it won't be short. It will be 2 months minimum.

And it will be because case numbers have got out of control and it takes time to get them down, plus the temptation from the influencers is always just another couple of weeks.

JosiasJessop

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:

So, PB brains trust. I've had two letters and a txt now in last couple of weeks asking me to book a booster as I am eligible and "our records show you have not had the vaccination booster".

I had my booster at GP a month ago.

Is this just a case of everyone is getting letters regardless or do they have my vax status incorrect?

In which case I may have problem if vaxports includes must have the booster.

One of the symptoms of omicron is false recall.

You jest: but when I had viral meningitis a few years back, it played silly bu**ers with my short-term memory for about a year. I'm still unsure whether my memory's back where it was.

Now, as far as I'm aware Covid doesn't infect the brain in the same way meningitis can, but viruses can cause problems with memory.

Have I said this before?

Nigelb

Scott_xP said:

...

“Thank you for the magic gathering” ?

MaxPB

Farooq said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Farooq said:

MaxPB said:

jonny83 said:

Mexicanpete said:

NerysHughes said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Some good and bad stats from SA...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2vI4XczqZ8

Again more reports of milder, but much younger people in hospital. Now is it the later means the former, or just that the later aren't vaccinated or that really just a mild variant.

It's astoundingly good news, just 6 Covid patients in 17 hospitals being ventilated

Can you explain the discrepancy between your constant stream of good Omicron news and the barage of reports on modelling which anticipates between 25,000 and 75,000 dead in England by April as reported on BBC News among others?

FWIW I hope you are correct and the BBC source is wrong.

We have a older population so I expect we will fare worse than SA, how much worse depends on how the boosters hold up.

My guess is it's not that much milder, maybe by a Midge's Dick less severe, what's skewing what we are seeing in SA is its much younger population at play.

We also don't have 25% of adults HIV positive. The UK and SA aren't comparable at all.

What effect does HIV positivity have on Covid-19?

Comprised immune system.

But I mean is that from day one, or does it take years before that effect is noticed?

Yes, incidence in HIV positive patients is higher and severity is higher too, the hospitalisation rate is significantly higher because they have got no real natural immune system to fight off the virus.

pigeon

FrancisUrquhart said:

kinabalu said:

My best to worst hierarchy of the options is as below:

1. Restrictions.
2. Short Lockdown.
3. Mandatory vaccination (via vaxports).
4. Long Lockdown.

Hopefully 1 will be sufficient.

If we go lockdown route, it won't be short. It will be 2 months minimum.

And it will be because case numbers have got out of control and it takes time to get them down, plus the temptation from the influencers is always just another couple of weeks.

The hard lockdown will be 2-3 months. The tail end, with the gradual lifting of restrictions, will take us all the way into Summer, just like last time. A catastrophe.

Malmesbury

Farooq said:

MaxPB said:

jonny83 said:

Mexicanpete said:

NerysHughes said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Some good and bad stats from SA...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2vI4XczqZ8

Again more reports of milder, but much younger people in hospital. Now is it the later means the former, or just that the later aren't vaccinated or that really just a mild variant.

It's astoundingly good news, just 6 Covid patients in 17 hospitals being ventilated

Can you explain the discrepancy between your constant stream of good Omicron news and the barage of reports on modelling which anticipates between 25,000 and 75,000 dead in England by April as reported on BBC News among others?

FWIW I hope you are correct and the BBC source is wrong.

We have a older population so I expect we will fare worse than SA, how much worse depends on how the boosters hold up.

My guess is it's not that much milder, maybe by a Midge's Dick less severe, what's skewing what we are seeing in SA is its much younger population at play.

We also don't have 25% of adults HIV positive. The UK and SA aren't comparable at all.

What effect does HIV positivity have on Covid-19?

HIV fucks up your immune system. Big time.

Human Immunodeficiency Virus

People who have AIDS are immune suppressed.

dixiedean

Just occurred that "Number 1 Superguy" Hong Kong Phooey was a pun on Hong Kong Flu.
Can't work out if that is an insight, or I was dim to not have figured it out before.
Brain fog.

Omnium

Leon said:

Omnium said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

Mexicanpete said:

NerysHughes said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Some good and bad stats from SA...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2vI4XczqZ8

Again more reports of milder, but much younger people in hospital. Now is it the later means the former, or just that the later aren't vaccinated or that really just a mild variant.

It's astoundingly good news, just 6 Covid patients in 17 hospitals being ventilated

Can you explain the discrepancy between your constant stream of good Omicron news and the barage of reports on modelling which anticipates between 25,000 and 75,000 dead in England by April as reported on BBC News among others?

FWIW I hope you are correct and the BBC source is wrong.

25,000 dead by spring is not remotely alarming. At the moment we are averaging 150 dead a day. Times by 100 days and that's 15,000. So Omicron only needs to nudge it up a bit (and remember it will get worse in deep winter anyway) and you hit 25,000

One thing during this pandemic is that people have lost any sort of wider proportionality of just how many people die each day in a population of 65+ million people. 100 people dying a day from a disease is not usually even worth more than a few sentences on page 28 of the newspapers in relation to an article talking about better funding

Yes, 25,000 dead over an entire winter would be a rather bad flu season, which might make a headline once or twice - 22,000 died of flu in 2017-18. Yet I don't recall the entire nation shutting down

I'm sort of guessing that's because you weren't around then.

You think I am 2 years old? I understand I can seem youthfully excitable at times, but still

Apologies - I thought your comment was about the flu pandemic in the early 20th Century. I'll go stand in the corner.

Edit: Apologies too to @dixiedean who posted a like perhaps with the same misapprehension, but surely relying on me not to be quite the blithering idiot

turbotubbs

pigeon said:

turbotubbs said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

Something a bit more cheering. A boffin who predicted US Covid deaths very accurately early on, and was also unpopularly pessimistic about variants, is more upbeat about Omicron. Reckons it is probably mild, maybe very mild

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/09/opinions/infectious-disease-expert-warned-covid-19-deaths-bergen/index.html

Caveat: he also admits he knows even less about this disease then he did a year ago, which is a pretty big pinch of salt

Otherwise there is almost nothing about Omicron on the CNN website. @moonshine is right. It is absent from much international media, even tho it dominates ours. Why is this?

Maybe it is just timing. Omicron has arrived here first (thanks to our many international links, and better sequencing) so we are alerted first. Also, lots of other countries - esp Europe - are still focused on Delta, and their own battles with that

But look at Le Monde. It's not even talking about Delta. Poignantly, for those Scot Nats and Remoaners who believe we think constantly about them while they are barely aware of us, its most read story is about Boris Johnson's party, and one of its main stories if the Brexit fishing squabble. They are obsessed

https://www.lemonde.fr/

The UK seems to have got itself into a complete nonsense panic with Omicron. So far there's little to no evidence that it hospitalised any significant number of vaccinated or naturally immune people. The modellers are just randomly inputting numbers into their shit models to get the desired outcome of lockdown forever.

I genuinely can't work out if we have lost our minds, or we are on the ball, and the rest of the world does not realise what is about to happen

I think that those at the top have taken a proportionate response. Increase some low level mitigation’s and ramp boosters as fast as possible. There is no panic at that level. As I think others are suggesting it’s likely lockdown talk is partly to get public compliance, but also media management to move on from the parties.
On PB, on the other hand, there are many posters who really fear a new lockdown, and have let their fear of such cloud their judgement of what is likely to happen. No doubt some will say I am too optomistic, but I just cannot see the whole panoply of furlough, closed hospitality etc being deployed again.
On what we should do, the Times editorial is strong on suggesting tighter measures must target the unvaccinated. Restrict their lives, not those who have done the right thing for society. Hard to disagree.

A very large fraction of the population, especially those aged between about 40 and 70, have been double jabbed with AZ - which, it transpires, is completely useless at protecting you against infection. At the rate that this expands, the very large fraction of us that can't obtain a Pfizer booster for weeks (my appointment is for the 29th, I daren't cancel it and try to get anything sooner because there probably aren't any slots left, so I'm basically down to going to a walk-in centre early next week and praying they've got sufficient supply) might as well resign ourselves to catching it.

A sufficiently large number of cases (even if Omicron is somewhat less harmful than Delta) = too many hospital patients = lockdown.

Omicron has now been with us for a little while, and the boffins will be looking very closely at the hospitalisation data as it comes in. If the explosion in cases and the percentage of infections leading to hospitalisation are both large enough, we've had it.

Given the preliminary findings about the transmissibility of Omicron and that so many of us are completely defenceless against infection, an explosion in cases seems inevitable - so it's all on how many of us get really sick. My own confidence on that front has collapsed. I'm not certain a lockdown announcement is coming next Saturday, but I think it quite likely. And once they do it, we know how that plays out. We'll be under house arrest for months and months and months.

I’d be careful about the 2x AZ being useless. Very limited data, huge confidence intervals (below zero FFS, so making infection more likely...). I’m not sure how many in that population are still waiting for the booster. I’m not, the wife is. It looks like omicron genuinely is giving mild outcomes. The lockdown triggers are not cases, it’s the hospitalisation and death, and 2xAZ will protect here.

At the end of the day neither of us know what will happen. I’ve not seen anything yet to make me thing the worst outcomes are that likely.
Lots of cases. Lots of people a bit rough then fine. If we weren’t testing, we would probably not even notice.