More opportunity for all participants to engage when #lockdown4 starts 27 Dec. For three months
GN all
Not happening, Tory MPs would vote it down and no Tory PM would survive allowing it. Plus this time there would be riots to contend with too given the polling now shows most voters want to keep the pubs and restaurants open and not ban mixing with other households
Lets see after 2-3 weeks of media banging on about 100k+ cases....people quickly go from very relaxed to very scared.
Cases are irrelevant, it is hospitalisations that matter and vaccines, boosters and vaxports can deal with that.
Plus we have a Tory majority in parliament most of whose MPs will topple any Tory PM if they even consider another lockdown
I know cases are irrelevant, but I am saying the public quickly get very scared.
Some of the public can get as scared as they like and stay in doors if they want, we have a Tory majority in parliament which will vote down another lockdown trashing the economy and remove any PM who tries to impose one. End of.
Aren't the Conservatives reliant upon the pensioner voting block? Those who have the most to fear from the virus and are most supportive of lockdowns.
Boris putting business first may play well for the libertarians. Less so the covid fearing early voting oldies you need.
Voters oppose closing pubs and restaurants by 49% to 31% in the latest Comres
The masks thing is bonkers. If people want to wear a mask, wear a FF3 (or whatever they are called) and have done. The government should make this clearer, and state fund these masks for vulnerable people. Lecturing others is a bit ridiculous when anyone can wear a FF3 mask as and when they wish!
The evidence is that FFP3 masks work incredibly, incredibly well - and yet nothing has been done to encourage people to get those.
So lets instead argue about people putting pieces of cloth over their face instead!
Cloth masks are the fallacy of "something must be done, this is something, therefore this must be done". We should have entirely voluntary masking, but instead be encouraging those who are wearing masks to wear ones of the quality standard that they actually work.
Yes, I was running some errands in the city earlier today, so wore an FFP3. Mask wearing was probably over 75% but a lot of poor masks and poor technique , so the efficacy must be lower. Town was busy and the antiaxx nutters were out. I had an argument with one who was spouting bollocks.
Omnicron is going to go through this city faster than shit off a shovel. I am on duty though over the holidays so really need to keep clear until my colleagues are back in Jan. I shall be at the match tomorrow in an FFP3 too.
An FFP3 mask properly worn is sensible, if you're bothered about catching the virus.
A cloth mask chin hammock that isn't covering your mouth or nose is not.
But a cloth mask properly worn does help impede transmission IF the person wearing is sick and contagious.
And by wearing a mask for this purpose, you are encouraging others to do the same. Good for them - and you.
Obviously NOT fail safe. But helps shave the odds, which OUGHT to have some appeal to PBers?
Where's the evidence that such mandates cut rates in the long-term?
I am not pretending to be a scientist. Just want to avoid getting someone else sick because I might be sick. And visa versa.
When I was a small boy, my Mom told me to cover my nose when I sneezed, to help keep my germs to myself. Never thought to ask her to cite evidence for what was self-evident.
When you sneeze fair enough.
Not when you breathe.
Sometime, yes. IF you're a heavy breather, or have done some heavy lifting or whatever.
Talking can also be problematic, esp. if you're a loud talker and get excited.
And of course singing - for example, by choirs - was a factor in a number of serious early COVID outbreaks.
In the early days when we were trying to halt the spread of Covid that was relevant.
What some people seem to have not accepted yet is that Covid is going to spread either way now. We need to live with it. So if its not you spreading Covid, its somebody else, either now or later on - it isn't going anywhere.
Spreading Covid isn't an issue. Getting sick with Covid is and its the vaccines that work to prevent that.
More opportunity for all participants to engage when #lockdown4 starts 27 Dec. For three months
GN all
Not happening, Tory MPs would vote it down and no Tory PM would survive allowing it. Plus this time there would be riots to contend with too given the polling now shows most voters want to keep the pubs and restaurants open and not ban mixing with other households
Lets see after 2-3 weeks of media banging on about 100k+ cases....people quickly go from very relaxed to very scared.
Cases are irrelevant, it is hospitalisations that matter and vaccines, boosters and vaxports can deal with that.
Plus we have a Tory majority in parliament most of whose MPs will topple any Tory PM if they even consider another lockdown
I know cases are irrelevant, but I am saying the public quickly get very scared.
I am preparing for something that won't be called a "lockdown", but significantly heightened restrictions during Jan / Feb. We are seeing all the precursors over the past few days.
Vaxports and LFTs being expanded to cinemas, theatres, pubs and restaurants from January maybe likely.
Full lockdown again is not
What would you know
More it seems than you.
Vaccinations and boosters are the only way out, not another lockdown
Two serious proper questions. Firstly How do we think the media narrative will go this week? For things to have legs, new and newsworthy things need to emerge don’t they? The wallpaper one is over now with geet not resigning. Party gate running out of steam in coming days as a news item? Restrictions rebellion has been muted by salami votes. And covid is going to dominate news agenda, and possibly the Ukraine invasion. Obviously what happens Thursday may make a difference. Secondly, the speaker has called time on parliament on Tuesday, almost like the bell ringing at a boxing match? Saving someone. Can any letters go in, be acted on, a vote take place when politics is in recess, acattered around the country wrapping presents? And without fuel in the media, where doth the polling?
The Afghanistan story is also a bit too old now to come back, having been drowned out by the party.
Next week it’s N Shropshire. That’s either going to be the coup de grâce, or a reprieve that sees him safe for now.
Regarding the Afghan story, is there still a select committee report to come?
Yes
So the story will likely be resurfaced at that point.
Plus, any further evidence of any Johnson involvement in the Nowzad evacuation would be extreely damaging.
Thank you for your responses. The picture being painted is more difficulties for Boris exciting the media at some point, just probably not much until the by election? So it sort of dies down and off news programmes a bit?
Could it though flair up using other names? A lot of posters have mentioned the demeanour of Sunak in front the cameras this week - does he have a skeleton to be unearthed? He doesn’t have to be boozing or partying, just present at a large “gathering”?
The other thing is what's the next scandal? There's bound to be one just around the corner.
That’s a good point, there’s two ways of second guessing it. What could the next scandal for Boris I think you mean, but perhaps the government as a whole. What else could leak to be damaging? Minutes about covid procurements? The Afghan “operation hound” report could leak?
But also what news stories can help the government spinnmachine distract. Any other big news stories can break this week, pushing covid and Boris down the news? Russia have a lot of personnel sat around in the cold? What about last of the year economic announcements, huge leap in inflation or bad other measure spooking the markets? Or perhaps supply chain issues causing shopping panics? Very sorry for all these questions. Feeling like a Randy moonrabbit right now, I made the approach, but she said no, it might wake her parents. So sorry PB you are stuck with me. No one gets what they want tonight 😗
In the pub we took our boots off and danced a very long time. I’m yawning now. Very much looking forward to long walk in countryside tomorrow.
Before I go I had another thought about media narrative.
The smoking gun the Afghan report could unleash might not be pets are us flight, is the advice to ministers in the lead up to the sudden Taliban advance. Do you recall a furious May saying the intelligence to you couldn’t have been that wrong, when ministers were blaming that in the commons. Maybe that part was behind closed doors, we will get to hear the intelligence communities redacted take?
New - NHS England will call up all over-30s who've been double jabbed >3mths ago to get booster from *Monday*
Vaccines chief Emily Lawson: "With the emergence of the new variant and the rising case numbers, there has never been a more important time to get boosted."
Yep. This omicron is busting through the double AZ vaxxed. Not much evidence of serious illness thus far, mind.
There's no evidence that the Winnie-The-Pooh variant is widespread yet. Even with the shortest possible doubling times, it is still a minor component of a Delta based epidemic.
Tim Spector estimates 4000 cases a day in London....
The problem with that estimate (based on an apparent PCR test difference) is that we are not seeing a surge in cases associated with Winnie-The-Pooh.
Unless, of course something is slowing it down. Massively.
More opportunity for all participants to engage when #lockdown4 starts 27 Dec. For three months
GN all
Not happening, Tory MPs would vote it down and no Tory PM would survive allowing it. Plus this time there would be riots to contend with too given the polling now shows most voters want to keep the pubs and restaurants open and not ban mixing with other households
Lets see after 2-3 weeks of media banging on about 100k+ cases....people quickly go from very relaxed to very scared.
Cases are irrelevant, it is hospitalisations that matter and vaccines, boosters and vaxports can deal with that.
Plus we have a Tory majority in parliament most of whose MPs will topple any Tory PM if they even consider another lockdown
I know cases are irrelevant, but I am saying the public quickly get very scared.
Some of the public can get as scared as they like and stay in doors if they want, we have a Tory majority in parliament which will vote down another lockdown trashing the economy and remove any PM who tries to impose one. End of.
Aren't the Conservatives reliant upon the pensioner voting block? Those who have the most to fear from the virus and are most supportive of lockdowns.
Boris putting business first may play well for the libertarians. Less so the covid fearing early voting oldies you need.
Voters oppose closing pubs and restaurants by 49% to 31% in the latest Comres
I imagine the age distribution doesn't favour you. And if the perception of putting wealth before health kicks in the most vulnerable i.e the postal voters will have the most to loose.
The official response is Boris was just briefly thanking staff....
Clearly another lie and will blow up again.
Either way he dd it on Zoom so who cares
Do you do much on video platforms? Zoom, Teams (boo), Webex (fuck no) and Google Meet (yay) - done the lot. Work, social, and a combination of both.
There is a difference between being on Zoon where you are in the office surrounded by people with remote workers joining remotely and being the remote person. The Mirror article purports that Downing Street was the people hub with lots of illegal people. Which means "he did it on Zoom" is illegal
Video meetings are now so embedded that people ask "which one". Can I put a word in for Teams being bottom of the pile, preferably buried under 12ft of concrete?
New - NHS England will call up all over-30s who've been double jabbed >3mths ago to get booster from *Monday*
Vaccines chief Emily Lawson: "With the emergence of the new variant and the rising case numbers, there has never been a more important time to get boosted."
Yep. This omicron is busting through the double AZ vaxxed. Not much evidence of serious illness thus far, mind.
There's no evidence that the Winnie-The-Pooh variant is widespread yet. Even with the shortest possible doubling times, it is still a minor component of a Delta based epidemic.
Tim Spector estimates 4000 cases a day in London....
The problem with that estimate (based on an apparent PCR test difference) is that we are not seeing a surge in cases associated with Winnie-The-Pooh.
Unless, of course something is slowing it down. Massively.
No major surges nationally but London covid rates increasing in last few days and according to HSAUK have the highest percentage of probable Omicron at 34 percent - so very roughly extrapolate to 4000 new cases daily https://t.co/hNkPFtoMJ0
More opportunity for all participants to engage when #lockdown4 starts 27 Dec. For three months
GN all
Not happening, Tory MPs would vote it down and no Tory PM would survive allowing it. Plus this time there would be riots to contend with too given the polling now shows most voters want to keep the pubs and restaurants open and not ban mixing with other households
Lets see after 2-3 weeks of media banging on about 100k+ cases....people quickly go from very relaxed to very scared.
Cases are irrelevant, it is hospitalisations that matter and vaccines, boosters and vaxports can deal with that.
Plus we have a Tory majority in parliament most of whose MPs will topple any Tory PM if they even consider another lockdown
You sound very curt and cheesed of now HYUFD, and I can understand and empathise why. I don’t need to know what your non PB recreations are, but suggest why not a fasting away from PB day, touching base with the other things in your life?
In fact it can still be politics, just immersion yourself in some reading rediscovering what your own core value is, from what is a wide field on the political centre and right often in conflict. I suggested contrasts by Pugin the other day. He is Conservative. Libertarian ideas would be Ann Rand? Hayek is also very eloquent why Conservatism is right.
Being a fellow Christian have you gone into T S Eliot Ideas of a Christian Society?
I am awaiting my local Episcopal Church reopening after a long refit. I haven't been to church for a few years. Miss it.
The official response is Boris was just briefly thanking staff....
Clearly another lie and will blow up again.
Either way he dd it on Zoom so who cares
Do you do much on video platforms? Zoom, Teams (boo), Webex (fuck no) and Google Meet (yay) - done the lot. Work, social, and a combination of both.
There is a difference between being on Zoon where you are in the office surrounded by people with remote workers joining remotely and being the remote person. The Mirror article purports that Downing Street was the people hub with lots of illegal people. Which means "he did it on Zoom" is illegal
Video meetings are now so embedded that people ask "which one". Can I put a word in for Teams being bottom of the pile, preferably buried under 12ft of concrete?
Its not exactly what most people will have imagined from a Boris party.....very least, i imagined tales of Boris tie on his head, off his tits, dancing on the tables.
Chapter Five - There shall be no Disturbance of Free Elections.
And because elections ought to be free, the King commandeth upon great Forfeiture, that no man by Force of Arms, nor by Malice, or Menacing, shall disturb any to make free Election.
More opportunity for all participants to engage when #lockdown4 starts 27 Dec. For three months
GN all
Not happening, Tory MPs would vote it down and no Tory PM would survive allowing it. Plus this time there would be riots to contend with too given the polling now shows most voters want to keep the pubs and restaurants open and not ban mixing with other households
Lets see after 2-3 weeks of media banging on about 100k+ cases....people quickly go from very relaxed to very scared.
Cases are irrelevant, it is hospitalisations that matter and vaccines, boosters and vaxports can deal with that.
Plus we have a Tory majority in parliament most of whose MPs will topple any Tory PM if they even consider another lockdown
You sound very curt and cheesed of now HYUFD, and I can understand and empathise why. I don’t need to know what your non PB recreations are, but suggest why not a fasting away from PB day, touching base with the other things in your life?
In fact it can still be politics, just immersion yourself in some reading rediscovering what your own core value is, from what is a wide field on the political centre and right often in conflict. I suggested contrasts by Pugin the other day. He is Conservative. Libertarian ideas would be Ann Rand? Hayek is also very eloquent why Conservatism is right.
Being a fellow Christian have you gone into T S Eliot Ideas of a Christian Society?
I may look into the latter, however conservativsm is a broad coalition of libertarians, social conservatives and centrists.
Incidentally most of this evening I was out at dinner at a Christmas social in Docklands not on PB at all
Ros Atkins @BBCRosAtkins · 7h THREAD 1/4: We've been taken aback by the response to our No.10 Christmas party videos. They've been watched over 11 million times in 9 days
More opportunity for all participants to engage when #lockdown4 starts 27 Dec. For three months
GN all
Not happening, Tory MPs would vote it down and no Tory PM would survive allowing it. Plus this time there would be riots to contend with too given the polling now shows most voters want to keep the pubs and restaurants open and not ban mixing with other households
Lets see after 2-3 weeks of media banging on about 100k+ cases....people quickly go from very relaxed to very scared.
Cases are irrelevant, it is hospitalisations that matter and vaccines, boosters and vaxports can deal with that.
Plus we have a Tory majority in parliament most of whose MPs will topple any Tory PM if they even consider another lockdown
I know cases are irrelevant, but I am saying the public quickly get very scared.
Some of the public can get as scared as they like and stay in doors if they want, we have a Tory majority in parliament which will vote down another lockdown trashing the economy and remove any PM who tries to impose one. End of.
Aren't the Conservatives reliant upon the pensioner voting block? Those who have the most to fear from the virus and are most supportive of lockdowns.
Boris putting business first may play well for the libertarians. Less so the covid fearing early voting oldies you need.
Voters oppose closing pubs and restaurants by 49% to 31% in the latest Comres
I imagine the age distribution doesn't favour you. And if the perception of putting wealth before health kicks in the most vulnerable i.e the postal voters will have the most to loose.
The most supportive of lockdown are mainly Labour voting public sector workers who can wfh indefinitely anyway.
Most pensioners have had their boosters now so are little affected by Omicron, small businessmen however, Tory core vote in towns and cities up and down the land, would be devastated by another lockdown
Two serious proper questions. Firstly How do we think the media narrative will go this week? For things to have legs, new and newsworthy things need to emerge don’t they? The wallpaper one is over now with geet not resigning. Party gate running out of steam in coming days as a news item? Restrictions rebellion has been muted by salami votes. And covid is going to dominate news agenda, and possibly the Ukraine invasion. Obviously what happens Thursday may make a difference. Secondly, the speaker has called time on parliament on Tuesday, almost like the bell ringing at a boxing match? Saving someone. Can any letters go in, be acted on, a vote take place when politics is in recess, acattered around the country wrapping presents? And without fuel in the media, where doth the polling?
The Afghanistan story is also a bit too old now to come back, having been drowned out by the party.
Next week it’s N Shropshire. That’s either going to be the coup de grâce, or a reprieve that sees him safe for now.
Regarding the Afghan story, is there still a select committee report to come?
Yes
So the story will likely be resurfaced at that point.
Plus, any further evidence of any Johnson involvement in the Nowzad evacuation would be extreely damaging.
Thank you for your responses. The picture being painted is more difficulties for Boris exciting the media at some point, just probably not much until the by election? So it sort of dies down and off news programmes a bit?
Could it though flair up using other names? A lot of posters have mentioned the demeanour of Sunak in front the cameras this week - does he have a skeleton to be unearthed? He doesn’t have to be boozing or partying, just present at a large “gathering”?
The other thing is what's the next scandal? There's bound to be one just around the corner.
That’s a good point, there’s two ways of second guessing it. What could the next scandal for Boris I think you mean, but perhaps the government as a whole. What else could leak to be damaging? Minutes about covid procurements? The Afghan “operation hound” report could leak?
But also what news stories can help the government spinnmachine distract. Any other big news stories can break this week, pushing covid and Boris down the news? Russia have a lot of personnel sat around in the cold? What about last of the year economic announcements, huge leap in inflation or bad other measure spooking the markets? Or perhaps supply chain issues causing shopping panics? Very sorry for all these questions. Feeling like a Randy moonrabbit right now, I made the approach, but she said no, it might wake her parents. So sorry PB you are stuck with me. No one gets what they want tonight 😗
In the pub we took our boots off and danced a very long time. I’m yawning now. Very much looking forward to long walk in countryside tomorrow.
Before I go I had another thought about media narrative.
The smoking gun the Afghan report could unleash might not be pets are us flight, is the advice to ministers in the lead up to the sudden Taliban advance. Do you recall a furious May saying the intelligence to you couldn’t have been that wrong, when ministers were blaming that in the commons. Maybe that part was behind closed doors, we will get to hear the intelligence communities redacted take?
The Afghan situation is that old classic - a reporting chain hearing what it wants to hear.
For a number of years, people on the ground in Afghanistan referred to the Afghan President as the Mayor of Kabul. But the group think of the intervening nations was that with just a little more effort.....
The Plan
In the beginning, there was a plan, And then came the assumptions, And the assumptions were without form, And the plan without substance,
And the darkness was upon the face of the workers, And they spoke among themselves saying, "It is a crock of shit and it stinks."
And the workers went unto their Supervisors and said, "It is a pile of dung, and we cannot live with the smell."
And the Supervisors went unto their Managers saying, "It is a container of excrement, and it is very strong, Such that none may abide by it."
And the Managers went unto their Directors saying, "It is a vessel of fertilizer, and none may abide by its strength."
And the Directors spoke among themselves saying to one another, "It contains that which aids plants growth, and it is very strong."
And the Directors went to the Vice Presidents saying unto them, "It promotes growth, and it is very powerful."
And the Vice Presidents went to the President, saying unto him, "This new plan will actively promote the growth and vigor Of the company With very powerful effects."
And the President looked upon the Plan And saw that it was good, And the Plan became Policy.
New - NHS England will call up all over-30s who've been double jabbed >3mths ago to get booster from *Monday*
Vaccines chief Emily Lawson: "With the emergence of the new variant and the rising case numbers, there has never been a more important time to get boosted."
Yep. This omicron is busting through the double AZ vaxxed. Not much evidence of serious illness thus far, mind.
There's no evidence that the Winnie-The-Pooh variant is widespread yet. Even with the shortest possible doubling times, it is still a minor component of a Delta based epidemic.
Tim Spector estimates 4000 cases a day in London....
The problem with that estimate (based on an apparent PCR test difference) is that we are not seeing a surge in cases associated with Winnie-The-Pooh.
Unless, of course something is slowing it down. Massively.
No major surges nationally but London covid rates increasing in last few days and according to HSAUK have the highest percentage of probable Omicron at 34 percent - so very roughly extrapolate to 4000 new cases daily https://t.co/hNkPFtoMJ0
You mean
Sure there is an interesting "kink" in the data around the 29th, but not seeing a step change. Yet.
More opportunity for all participants to engage when #lockdown4 starts 27 Dec. For three months
GN all
Not happening, Tory MPs would vote it down and no Tory PM would survive allowing it. Plus this time there would be riots to contend with too given the polling now shows most voters want to keep the pubs and restaurants open and not ban mixing with other households
Lets see after 2-3 weeks of media banging on about 100k+ cases....people quickly go from very relaxed to very scared.
Cases are irrelevant, it is hospitalisations that matter and vaccines, boosters and vaxports can deal with that.
Plus we have a Tory majority in parliament most of whose MPs will topple any Tory PM if they even consider another lockdown
I know cases are irrelevant, but I am saying the public quickly get very scared.
I am preparing for something that won't be called a "lockdown", but significantly heightened restrictions during Jan / Feb. We are seeing all the precursors over the past few days.
Vaxports and LFTs being expanded to cinemas, theatres, pubs and restaurants from January maybe likely.
Full lockdown again is not
What would you know
More it seems than you.
Vaccinations and boosters are the only way out, not another lockdown
And yet your PM / government are leading us to another lockdown
New - NHS England will call up all over-30s who've been double jabbed >3mths ago to get booster from *Monday*
Vaccines chief Emily Lawson: "With the emergence of the new variant and the rising case numbers, there has never been a more important time to get boosted."
Yep. This omicron is busting through the double AZ vaxxed. Not much evidence of serious illness thus far, mind.
There's no evidence that the Winnie-The-Pooh variant is widespread yet. Even with the shortest possible doubling times, it is still a minor component of a Delta based epidemic.
Tim Spector estimates 4000 cases a day in London....
The problem with that estimate (based on an apparent PCR test difference) is that we are not seeing a surge in cases associated with Winnie-The-Pooh.
Unless, of course something is slowing it down. Massively.
No major surges nationally but London covid rates increasing in last few days and according to HSAUK have the highest percentage of probable Omicron at 34 percent - so very roughly extrapolate to 4000 new cases daily https://t.co/hNkPFtoMJ0
You mean
Sure there is an interesting "kink" in the data around the 29th, but not seeing a step change. Yet.
I imagine Tim Spector is going off his ZOE app data....that is ahead of the official case trends.
Anyway, home now, negative for now, wifey ill but not dying, kids meh but not upset by the abrupt end of term. Am consoling myself by having a wee drinkie.
You know Liar is finished because the various candidates to replace him are already briefing the media. Ravey Mikey Govey. Sunak. Truss. Priti Vacant. I love St Theresa and "operation revenge".
Will the last HYUFD supporting Liar please turn out the lights...?
Sorry RP I missed this. Is your missus positive? If so send her my love and empathy. You can avoid it in the same house with some organisation and give and take. We are 2-2 in the family positive/negative.
Yes, after negative LF tests Thursday and Friday before heading to work in a primary school, she got a positive LF this morning. Whilst I was approaching Darlington on my trip from nnorthern Aberdeenshire to that London...
She feels like crap, has lost her smell but isn't as ill as the girl was a week ago. Yet. Hope you are on the mend DD.
Yep. The repetitive negative LFT tests seems to be a recurring feature. As does complete loss of smell. I am well. Apart from having to think really carefully before I write. Hope all goes for the best for you and yours.
If as I suspect this was two separate school transmissions then the gates of hell truly are open. This is Aberdeenshire. An awful lot of nothing inbetween everywhere. If schools here are ridden with it (presumably Omicron) then think how much fun* is coming in busy urban areas.
I know where I got it. I was pretty damn careful being as how my booster was due. A casual chat of half a dozen for less than half an hour in an otherwise empty building. The negative LFT despite symptoms is a really worrying development.
A combination of very high transmissibility and a failure of the rapid tests to detect the disease would probably be enough to defeat the next lockdown. The accumulation of several factors - people in roles that can't be fulfilled from a home office needing to go into workplaces to keep the country running, most of us needing to go shopping and being exposed to hyper-infectious carriers simply walking around a busy supermarket, mandatory self-isolation on a huge scale for close contacts, and Government being forced to order anyone with a cold to stay home until they can get their status confirmed by PCR - would risk bringing even absolutely essential services like the provision of food and medical care to a grinding halt.
The Government may be desperate to prevent the disease from spreading out of control and overwhelming the hospitals, but firstly the health and care systems will collapse anyway if a substantial proportion of all their staff are self-isolating at once, and secondly society itself will implode if there aren't enough people still working to ensure continuity of grocery, water and power supplies, and of industry and agriculture.
I can see circumstances under which the Government could be forced to scrap self-isolation and the whole test and trace system, and accept that people who have the illness but are asymptomatic or suffering from the sniffles will have to be let out to keep working, just to stop everything from falling apart. It'd probably finish off the pandemic by spreading natural immunity to virtually everyone whose immune system isn't already able to repel Omicron within a very short space of time, but unless this variant turns out to be very mild indeed that might also end with emergency field hospitals and large scale rationing of life saving care. It is a grim prospect.
New - NHS England will call up all over-30s who've been double jabbed >3mths ago to get booster from *Monday*
Vaccines chief Emily Lawson: "With the emergence of the new variant and the rising case numbers, there has never been a more important time to get boosted."
Yep. This omicron is busting through the double AZ vaxxed. Not much evidence of serious illness thus far, mind.
There's no evidence that the Winnie-The-Pooh variant is widespread yet. Even with the shortest possible doubling times, it is still a minor component of a Delta based epidemic.
Tim Spector estimates 4000 cases a day in London....
The problem with that estimate (based on an apparent PCR test difference) is that we are not seeing a surge in cases associated with Winnie-The-Pooh.
Unless, of course something is slowing it down. Massively.
No major surges nationally but London covid rates increasing in last few days and according to HSAUK have the highest percentage of probable Omicron at 34 percent - so very roughly extrapolate to 4000 new cases daily https://t.co/hNkPFtoMJ0
You mean
Sure there is an interesting "kink" in the data around the 29th, but not seeing a step change. Yet.
I imagine Tim Spector is going off his ZOE app data....that is ahead of the official case trends.
No - what he is saying is that he is estimating from data in PCR tests reports that *suggest* Winne-The-Pooh is the variant of COVID being found by the test. Not ZOE data...
New - NHS England will call up all over-30s who've been double jabbed >3mths ago to get booster from *Monday*
Vaccines chief Emily Lawson: "With the emergence of the new variant and the rising case numbers, there has never been a more important time to get boosted."
Yep. This omicron is busting through the double AZ vaxxed. Not much evidence of serious illness thus far, mind.
There's no evidence that the Winnie-The-Pooh variant is widespread yet. Even with the shortest possible doubling times, it is still a minor component of a Delta based epidemic.
Tim Spector estimates 4000 cases a day in London....
The problem with that estimate (based on an apparent PCR test difference) is that we are not seeing a surge in cases associated with Winnie-The-Pooh.
Unless, of course something is slowing it down. Massively.
No major surges nationally but London covid rates increasing in last few days and according to HSAUK have the highest percentage of probable Omicron at 34 percent - so very roughly extrapolate to 4000 new cases daily https://t.co/hNkPFtoMJ0
You mean
Sure there is an interesting "kink" in the data around the 29th, but not seeing a step change. Yet.
I imagine Tim Spector is going off his ZOE app data....that is ahead of the official case trends.
No - what he is saying is that he is estimating from data in PCR tests reports that *suggest* Winne-The-Pooh is the variant of COVID being found by the test. Not ZOE data...
That's not how i read it. I read it as the estimate is 1/3 cases are omicron. Then taken his estimate for current london covid cases and gone from there.
E.g. he did it here...
Useful daily data from @AlistairGrant4 showing yesterday around 10% of pcr cases tested in England were Omicron - translates to well over 8000 likely daily cases based on ZOE estimates. Travel restrictions on those coming in look pretty pointless as does track and trace.
New - NHS England will call up all over-30s who've been double jabbed >3mths ago to get booster from *Monday*
Vaccines chief Emily Lawson: "With the emergence of the new variant and the rising case numbers, there has never been a more important time to get boosted."
Yep. This omicron is busting through the double AZ vaxxed. Not much evidence of serious illness thus far, mind.
There's no evidence that the Winnie-The-Pooh variant is widespread yet. Even with the shortest possible doubling times, it is still a minor component of a Delta based epidemic.
Tim Spector estimates 4000 cases a day in London....
The problem with that estimate (based on an apparent PCR test difference) is that we are not seeing a surge in cases associated with Winnie-The-Pooh.
Unless, of course something is slowing it down. Massively.
No major surges nationally but London covid rates increasing in last few days and according to HSAUK have the highest percentage of probable Omicron at 34 percent - so very roughly extrapolate to 4000 new cases daily https://t.co/hNkPFtoMJ0
You mean
Sure there is an interesting "kink" in the data around the 29th, but not seeing a step change. Yet.
I imagine Tim Spector is going off his ZOE app data....that is ahead of the official case trends.
No - what he is saying is that he is estimating from data in PCR tests reports that *suggest* Winne-The-Pooh is the variant of COVID being found by the test. Not ZOE data...
That's not how i read it. I read it as the estimate is 1/3 cases are omicron. Then taken his estimate for current london covid cases and gone from there.
Ah, I see what you mean.
The only problem with that is that the we are not seeing the zoom away numbers to match the experiences of places that have got to that kind of level of Winnie-The-Pooh
More opportunity for all participants to engage when #lockdown4 starts 27 Dec. For three months
GN all
Not happening, Tory MPs would vote it down and no Tory PM would survive allowing it. Plus this time there would be riots to contend with too given the polling now shows most voters want to keep the pubs and restaurants open and not ban mixing with other households
Lets see after 2-3 weeks of media banging on about 100k+ cases....people quickly go from very relaxed to very scared.
Cases are irrelevant, it is hospitalisations that matter and vaccines, boosters and vaxports can deal with that.
Plus we have a Tory majority in parliament most of whose MPs will topple any Tory PM if they even consider another lockdown
I know cases are irrelevant, but I am saying the public quickly get very scared.
I am preparing for something that won't be called a "lockdown", but significantly heightened restrictions during Jan / Feb. We are seeing all the precursors over the past few days.
Vaxports and LFTs being expanded to cinemas, theatres, pubs and restaurants from January maybe likely.
Full lockdown again is not
What would you know
More it seems than you.
Vaccinations and boosters are the only way out, not another lockdown
And yet your PM / government are leading us to another lockdown
To keep us all ticking over he could host a quiz night each week for while we are in lockdown. Instead of "clap for Boris", what about "quiz for Boris". I believe he has recent experience in hosting such events.
More opportunity for all participants to engage when #lockdown4 starts 27 Dec. For three months
GN all
Not happening, Tory MPs would vote it down and no Tory PM would survive allowing it. Plus this time there would be riots to contend with too given the polling now shows most voters want to keep the pubs and restaurants open and not ban mixing with other households
Lets see after 2-3 weeks of media banging on about 100k+ cases....people quickly go from very relaxed to very scared.
Cases are irrelevant, it is hospitalisations that matter and vaccines, boosters and vaxports can deal with that.
Plus we have a Tory majority in parliament most of whose MPs will topple any Tory PM if they even consider another lockdown
I know cases are irrelevant, but I am saying the public quickly get very scared.
Some of the public can get as scared as they like and stay in doors if they want, we have a Tory majority in parliament which will vote down another lockdown trashing the economy and remove any PM who tries to impose one. End of.
Aren't the Conservatives reliant upon the pensioner voting block? Those who have the most to fear from the virus and are most supportive of lockdowns.
Boris putting business first may play well for the libertarians. Less so the covid fearing early voting oldies you need.
Voters oppose closing pubs and restaurants by 49% to 31% in the latest Comres
I imagine the age distribution doesn't favour you. And if the perception of putting wealth before health kicks in the most vulnerable i.e the postal voters will have the most to loose.
The most supportive of lockdown are mainly Labour voting public sector workers who can wfh indefinitely anyway.
Most pensioners have had their boosters now so are little affected by Omicron, small businessmen however, Tory core vote in towns and cities up and down the land, would be devastated by another lockdown
Pensioners due to their age are more likely to catch and die from the disease vaccinated or not. We both know this, and so do they. Deliberately exacerbating their risk will not go down well.
Lets not pretend small business owners are the biggest Conservative voting block. The Conservative party is reliant upon the retired. lose them and there would be nothing left.
More opportunity for all participants to engage when #lockdown4 starts 27 Dec. For three months
GN all
Not happening, Tory MPs would vote it down and no Tory PM would survive allowing it. Plus this time there would be riots to contend with too given the polling now shows most voters want to keep the pubs and restaurants open and not ban mixing with other households
Lets see after 2-3 weeks of media banging on about 100k+ cases....people quickly go from very relaxed to very scared.
Cases are irrelevant, it is hospitalisations that matter and vaccines, boosters and vaxports can deal with that.
Plus we have a Tory majority in parliament most of whose MPs will topple any Tory PM if they even consider another lockdown
I know cases are irrelevant, but I am saying the public quickly get very scared.
Some of the public can get as scared as they like and stay in doors if they want, we have a Tory majority in parliament which will vote down another lockdown trashing the economy and remove any PM who tries to impose one. End of.
Aren't the Conservatives reliant upon the pensioner voting block? Those who have the most to fear from the virus and are most supportive of lockdowns.
Boris putting business first may play well for the libertarians. Less so the covid fearing early voting oldies you need.
Voters oppose closing pubs and restaurants by 49% to 31% in the latest Comres
I imagine the age distribution doesn't favour you. And if the perception of putting wealth before health kicks in the most vulnerable i.e the postal voters will have the most to loose.
The most supportive of lockdown are mainly Labour voting public sector workers who can wfh indefinitely anyway.
Most pensioners have had their boosters now so are little affected by Omicron, small businessmen however, Tory core vote in towns and cities up and down the land, would be devastated by another lockdown
Pensioners due to their age are more likely to catch and die from the disease vaccinated or not. We both know this, and so do they. Deliberately exacerbating their risk will not go down well.
Lets not pretend small business owners are the biggest Conservative voting block. The Conservative party is reliant upon the retired. lose them and there would be nothing left.
Don't tell me what the Conservative voting block is. The double vaccinated plus boosters have near zero chance of hospitalisation from Omnicron unless near death anyway from pre existing conditions.
In 2019 however the Tories won all voters over 39, not just all voters over 65. Small businessmen are a pivotal part of the Tory coalition without whom they cannot win.
As the polling shows most voters do not want another lockdown apart from mainly Labour voting public sector workers and civil servants who will get paid full wages to wfh anyway.
There will thus be no further lockdown from this Tory government
More opportunity for all participants to engage when #lockdown4 starts 27 Dec. For three months
GN all
Not happening, Tory MPs would vote it down and no Tory PM would survive allowing it. Plus this time there would be riots to contend with too given the polling now shows most voters want to keep the pubs and restaurants open and not ban mixing with other households
Lets see after 2-3 weeks of media banging on about 100k+ cases....people quickly go from very relaxed to very scared.
Cases are irrelevant, it is hospitalisations that matter and vaccines, boosters and vaxports can deal with that.
Plus we have a Tory majority in parliament most of whose MPs will topple any Tory PM if they even consider another lockdown
I know cases are irrelevant, but I am saying the public quickly get very scared.
I am preparing for something that won't be called a "lockdown", but significantly heightened restrictions during Jan / Feb. We are seeing all the precursors over the past few days.
Vaxports and LFTs being expanded to cinemas, theatres, pubs and restaurants from January maybe likely.
Full lockdown again is not
What would you know
More it seems than you.
Vaccinations and boosters are the only way out, not another lockdown
And yet your PM / government are leading us to another lockdown
They aren't as Boris has made clear. Leftwingers like you are pushing for another lockdown to further expand the power of the state.
One more factor which might conspire to defeat the next lockdown: ennui with the Government, compounded by sheer bloody fatigue.
But the government’s prospects of successfully imposing new restrictions on the public were questioned on Saturday by senior behavioural experts. They have warned that reports of Downing Street parties, where Covid rules were allegedly flouted last year, have caused widespread anger and resentment.
“It is always more difficult to re-apply restrictions because people are fatigued and generally fed up,” said Linda Bauld, a professor of public health at Edinburgh University. “But now it’s going to be even harder, because trust has been eroded to a very significant level. People are really fed up with the government. And if you don’t trust the government, why would you do what the government asked you to do?”
Bauld said it was likely that far more people would flout rules if they were asked to limit numbers allowed indoors at one time, as happened last winter. “Many are likely to say: I’m fed up, I don’t trust this government, and I want to see my friends and family, so I’m just going to ignore the rule.”
I'm sure that Professor Bauld is on the money with her prediction - to say nothing of another factor that is not mentioned in her quoted response. The fear that this will never end, so bearing with the rules in the vain hope of finally seeing the back of cyclical lockdowns (especially if the people who are meeting each other are all relatively low risk anyway) feels utterly futile.
More opportunity for all participants to engage when #lockdown4 starts 27 Dec. For three months
GN all
Not happening, Tory MPs would vote it down and no Tory PM would survive allowing it. Plus this time there would be riots to contend with too given the polling now shows most voters want to keep the pubs and restaurants open and not ban mixing with other households
Lets see after 2-3 weeks of media banging on about 100k+ cases....people quickly go from very relaxed to very scared.
Cases are irrelevant, it is hospitalisations that matter and vaccines, boosters and vaxports can deal with that.
Plus we have a Tory majority in parliament most of whose MPs will topple any Tory PM if they even consider another lockdown
I know cases are irrelevant, but I am saying the public quickly get very scared.
Some of the public can get as scared as they like and stay in doors if they want, we have a Tory majority in parliament which will vote down another lockdown trashing the economy and remove any PM who tries to impose one. End of.
Aren't the Conservatives reliant upon the pensioner voting block? Those who have the most to fear from the virus and are most supportive of lockdowns.
Boris putting business first may play well for the libertarians. Less so the covid fearing early voting oldies you need.
Voters oppose closing pubs and restaurants by 49% to 31% in the latest Comres
I imagine the age distribution doesn't favour you. And if the perception of putting wealth before health kicks in the most vulnerable i.e the postal voters will have the most to loose.
The most supportive of lockdown are mainly Labour voting public sector workers who can wfh indefinitely anyway.
Most pensioners have had their boosters now so are little affected by Omicron, small businessmen however, Tory core vote in towns and cities up and down the land, would be devastated by another lockdown
Pensioners due to their age are more likely to catch and die from the disease vaccinated or not. We both know this, and so do they. Deliberately exacerbating their risk will not go down well.
Lets not pretend small business owners are the biggest Conservative voting block. The Conservative party is reliant upon the retired. lose them and there would be nothing left.
Don't tell me what the Conservative voting block is. The double vaccinated plus boosters have near zero chance of hospitalisation from Omnicron unless near death anyway from pre existing conditions.
In 2019 however the Tories win all voters over 39, not just all voters over 65. Small businessmen are a pivotal part of the Tory coalition without whom they cannot win.
As the polling shows most voters do not want another lockdown apart from mainly Labour voting public sector workers and civil servants who will get paid full wages to wfh anyway.
There will this be no further lockdown from this Tory government
Not all voters, a majority of. From which the retired are the largest grouping.
You stand for the elders of this society. Putting them to the chop would seem a little out of character. But I'll love to see how it is spun.
As the Conservatives are clearly missing the Cummings brilliancy's. I'll give you a free slogan to pass on.
One more factor which might conspire to defeat the next lockdown: ennui with the Government, compounded by sheer bloody fatigue.
But the government’s prospects of successfully imposing new restrictions on the public were questioned on Saturday by senior behavioural experts. They have warned that reports of Downing Street parties, where Covid rules were allegedly flouted last year, have caused widespread anger and resentment.
“It is always more difficult to re-apply restrictions because people are fatigued and generally fed up,” said Linda Bauld, a professor of public health at Edinburgh University. “But now it’s going to be even harder, because trust has been eroded to a very significant level. People are really fed up with the government. And if you don’t trust the government, why would you do what the government asked you to do?”
Bauld said it was likely that far more people would flout rules if they were asked to limit numbers allowed indoors at one time, as happened last winter. “Many are likely to say: I’m fed up, I don’t trust this government, and I want to see my friends and family, so I’m just going to ignore the rule.”
I'm sure that Professor Bauld is on the money with her prediction - to say nothing of another factor that is not mentioned in her quoted response. The fear that this will never end, so bearing with the rules in the vain hope of finally seeing the back of cyclical lockdowns (especially if the people who are meeting each other are all relatively low risk anyway) feels utterly futile.
Bauld is clearly from the university of the bleeding obvious.
I don't know anyone who is prepared to change their xmas plans this year unless they literally have roadblocks set up.
I think a lot more will fall in line for the lockdown from 3rd Jan, which is my prediction. "We've had xmas, now is the time to keep heads down for a month" etc.
More opportunity for all participants to engage when #lockdown4 starts 27 Dec. For three months
GN all
Not happening, Tory MPs would vote it down and no Tory PM would survive allowing it. Plus this time there would be riots to contend with too given the polling now shows most voters want to keep the pubs and restaurants open and not ban mixing with other households
Lets see after 2-3 weeks of media banging on about 100k+ cases....people quickly go from very relaxed to very scared.
Cases are irrelevant, it is hospitalisations that matter and vaccines, boosters and vaxports can deal with that.
Plus we have a Tory majority in parliament most of whose MPs will topple any Tory PM if they even consider another lockdown
I know cases are irrelevant, but I am saying the public quickly get very scared.
I am preparing for something that won't be called a "lockdown", but significantly heightened restrictions during Jan / Feb. We are seeing all the precursors over the past few days.
Vaxports and LFTs being expanded to cinemas, theatres, pubs and restaurants from January maybe likely.
Full lockdown again is not
What would you know
More it seems than you.
Vaccinations and boosters are the only way out, not another lockdown
And yet your PM / government are leading us to another lockdown
To keep us all ticking over he could host a quiz night each week for while we are in lockdown. Instead of "clap for Boris", what about "quiz for Boris". I believe he has recent experience in hosting such events.
If the quiz for Boris is answering rather than asking then we are all in the clarts.
Eswatini COVID update: Cases surge in South Africa's neighbor, nearly all tests positive
- New cases: 1,002 - Average: 687 (+114) - Positivity rate: 97.3% (+46.3) - In hospital: 54 - New deaths: 0 - Average: 0 (-)
That positivity rate......
That positivity rate means that they're only doing 1,031 tests!
Yes - my guess is that they have a limited number of tests and are testing known contacts of hospital patients. And restricting tests to those with symptoms.
More opportunity for all participants to engage when #lockdown4 starts 27 Dec. For three months
GN all
Not happening, Tory MPs would vote it down and no Tory PM would survive allowing it. Plus this time there would be riots to contend with too given the polling now shows most voters want to keep the pubs and restaurants open and not ban mixing with other households
Lets see after 2-3 weeks of media banging on about 100k+ cases....people quickly go from very relaxed to very scared.
Cases are irrelevant, it is hospitalisations that matter and vaccines, boosters and vaxports can deal with that.
Plus we have a Tory majority in parliament most of whose MPs will topple any Tory PM if they even consider another lockdown
I know cases are irrelevant, but I am saying the public quickly get very scared.
Some of the public can get as scared as they like and stay in doors if they want, we have a Tory majority in parliament which will vote down another lockdown trashing the economy and remove any PM who tries to impose one. End of.
Aren't the Conservatives reliant upon the pensioner voting block? Those who have the most to fear from the virus and are most supportive of lockdowns.
Boris putting business first may play well for the libertarians. Less so the covid fearing early voting oldies you need.
Voters oppose closing pubs and restaurants by 49% to 31% in the latest Comres
I imagine the age distribution doesn't favour you. And if the perception of putting wealth before health kicks in the most vulnerable i.e the postal voters will have the most to loose.
The most supportive of lockdown are mainly Labour voting public sector workers who can wfh indefinitely anyway.
Most pensioners have had their boosters now so are little affected by Omicron, small businessmen however, Tory core vote in towns and cities up and down the land, would be devastated by another lockdown
Pensioners due to their age are more likely to catch and die from the disease vaccinated or not. We both know this, and so do they. Deliberately exacerbating their risk will not go down well.
Lets not pretend small business owners are the biggest Conservative voting block. The Conservative party is reliant upon the retired. lose them and there would be nothing left.
+1. It is a government for the old. They elected it and will sustain it. Their priorities will prevail.
More opportunity for all participants to engage when #lockdown4 starts 27 Dec. For three months
GN all
Not happening, Tory MPs would vote it down and no Tory PM would survive allowing it. Plus this time there would be riots to contend with too given the polling now shows most voters want to keep the pubs and restaurants open and not ban mixing with other households
Lets see after 2-3 weeks of media banging on about 100k+ cases....people quickly go from very relaxed to very scared.
Cases are irrelevant, it is hospitalisations that matter and vaccines, boosters and vaxports can deal with that.
Plus we have a Tory majority in parliament most of whose MPs will topple any Tory PM if they even consider another lockdown
I know cases are irrelevant, but I am saying the public quickly get very scared.
Some of the public can get as scared as they like and stay in doors if they want, we have a Tory majority in parliament which will vote down another lockdown trashing the economy and remove any PM who tries to impose one. End of.
Aren't the Conservatives reliant upon the pensioner voting block? Those who have the most to fear from the virus and are most supportive of lockdowns.
Boris putting business first may play well for the libertarians. Less so the covid fearing early voting oldies you need.
Voters oppose closing pubs and restaurants by 49% to 31% in the latest Comres
I imagine the age distribution doesn't favour you. And if the perception of putting wealth before health kicks in the most vulnerable i.e the postal voters will have the most to loose.
The most supportive of lockdown are mainly Labour voting public sector workers who can wfh indefinitely anyway.
Most pensioners have had their boosters now so are little affected by Omicron, small businessmen however, Tory core vote in towns and cities up and down the land, would be devastated by another lockdown
Pensioners due to their age are more likely to catch and die from the disease vaccinated or not. We both know this, and so do they. Deliberately exacerbating their risk will not go down well.
Lets not pretend small business owners are the biggest Conservative voting block. The Conservative party is reliant upon the retired. lose them and there would be nothing left.
Don't tell me what the Conservative voting block is. The double vaccinated plus boosters have near zero chance of hospitalisation from Omnicron unless near death anyway from pre existing conditions.
In 2019 however the Tories won all voters over 39, not just all voters over 65. Small businessmen are a pivotal part of the Tory coalition without whom they cannot win.
As the polling shows most voters do not want another lockdown apart from mainly Labour voting public sector workers and civil servants who will get paid full wages to wfh anyway.
There will thus be no further lockdown from this Tory government
Are public sector workers and civil servants no longer welcome to vote Tory? Remember Cameron won teachers in 2010. Small business is fine if you want 5% of the vote.
More opportunity for all participants to engage when #lockdown4 starts 27 Dec. For three months
GN all
Not happening, Tory MPs would vote it down and no Tory PM would survive allowing it. Plus this time there would be riots to contend with too given the polling now shows most voters want to keep the pubs and restaurants open and not ban mixing with other households
Lets see after 2-3 weeks of media banging on about 100k+ cases....people quickly go from very relaxed to very scared.
Cases are irrelevant, it is hospitalisations that matter and vaccines, boosters and vaxports can deal with that.
Plus we have a Tory majority in parliament most of whose MPs will topple any Tory PM if they even consider another lockdown
I know cases are irrelevant, but I am saying the public quickly get very scared.
Some of the public can get as scared as they like and stay in doors if they want, we have a Tory majority in parliament which will vote down another lockdown trashing the economy and remove any PM who tries to impose one. End of.
Aren't the Conservatives reliant upon the pensioner voting block? Those who have the most to fear from the virus and are most supportive of lockdowns.
Boris putting business first may play well for the libertarians. Less so the covid fearing early voting oldies you need.
Voters oppose closing pubs and restaurants by 49% to 31% in the latest Comres
I imagine the age distribution doesn't favour you. And if the perception of putting wealth before health kicks in the most vulnerable i.e the postal voters will have the most to loose.
The most supportive of lockdown are mainly Labour voting public sector workers who can wfh indefinitely anyway.
Most pensioners have had their boosters now so are little affected by Omicron, small businessmen however, Tory core vote in towns and cities up and down the land, would be devastated by another lockdown
Pensioners due to their age are more likely to catch and die from the disease vaccinated or not. We both know this, and so do they. Deliberately exacerbating their risk will not go down well.
Lets not pretend small business owners are the biggest Conservative voting block. The Conservative party is reliant upon the retired. lose them and there would be nothing left.
+1. It is a government for the old. They elected it and will sustain it. Their priorities will prevail.
The Tories might have a much younger leader pretty soon. That might affect their popularity with younger voters.
More opportunity for all participants to engage when #lockdown4 starts 27 Dec. For three months
GN all
Not happening, Tory MPs would vote it down and no Tory PM would survive allowing it. Plus this time there would be riots to contend with too given the polling now shows most voters want to keep the pubs and restaurants open and not ban mixing with other households
Lets see after 2-3 weeks of media banging on about 100k+ cases....people quickly go from very relaxed to very scared.
Cases are irrelevant, it is hospitalisations that matter and vaccines, boosters and vaxports can deal with that.
Plus we have a Tory majority in parliament most of whose MPs will topple any Tory PM if they even consider another lockdown
I know cases are irrelevant, but I am saying the public quickly get very scared.
Some of the public can get as scared as they like and stay in doors if they want, we have a Tory majority in parliament which will vote down another lockdown trashing the economy and remove any PM who tries to impose one. End of.
Aren't the Conservatives reliant upon the pensioner voting block? Those who have the most to fear from the virus and are most supportive of lockdowns.
Boris putting business first may play well for the libertarians. Less so the covid fearing early voting oldies you need.
Voters oppose closing pubs and restaurants by 49% to 31% in the latest Comres
I imagine the age distribution doesn't favour you. And if the perception of putting wealth before health kicks in the most vulnerable i.e the postal voters will have the most to loose.
The most supportive of lockdown are mainly Labour voting public sector workers who can wfh indefinitely anyway.
Most pensioners have had their boosters now so are little affected by Omicron, small businessmen however, Tory core vote in towns and cities up and down the land, would be devastated by another lockdown
Pensioners due to their age are more likely to catch and die from the disease vaccinated or not. We both know this, and so do they. Deliberately exacerbating their risk will not go down well.
Lets not pretend small business owners are the biggest Conservative voting block. The Conservative party is reliant upon the retired. lose them and there would be nothing left.
+1. It is a government for the old. They elected it and will sustain it. Their priorities will prevail.
The Tories might have a much younger leader pretty soon. That might affect their popularity with younger voters.
Indeed. But that would require an entirely new set of policies. And voters.
More opportunity for all participants to engage when #lockdown4 starts 27 Dec. For three months
GN all
Not happening, Tory MPs would vote it down and no Tory PM would survive allowing it. Plus this time there would be riots to contend with too given the polling now shows most voters want to keep the pubs and restaurants open and not ban mixing with other households
Lets see after 2-3 weeks of media banging on about 100k+ cases....people quickly go from very relaxed to very scared.
Cases are irrelevant, it is hospitalisations that matter and vaccines, boosters and vaxports can deal with that.
Plus we have a Tory majority in parliament most of whose MPs will topple any Tory PM if they even consider another lockdown
I know cases are irrelevant, but I am saying the public quickly get very scared.
I am preparing for something that won't be called a "lockdown", but significantly heightened restrictions during Jan / Feb. We are seeing all the precursors over the past few days.
Vaxports and LFTs being expanded to cinemas, theatres, pubs and restaurants from January maybe likely.
Full lockdown again is not
What would you know
More it seems than you.
Vaccinations and boosters are the only way out, not another lockdown
And yet your PM / government are leading us to another lockdown
They aren't as Boris has made clear. Leftwingers like you are pushing for another lockdown to further expand the power of the state.
You will not get one
Also let's remember the LDs are against vaccine passports, so if they win the by-election it won't be a mandate for their introduction.
The official response is Boris was just briefly thanking staff....
Clearly another lie and will blow up again.
Either way he dd it on Zoom so who cares
Do you do much on video platforms? Zoom, Teams (boo), Webex (fuck no) and Google Meet (yay) - done the lot. Work, social, and a combination of both.
There is a difference between being on Zoon where you are in the office surrounded by people with remote workers joining remotely and being the remote person. The Mirror article purports that Downing Street was the people hub with lots of illegal people. Which means "he did it on Zoom" is illegal
Video meetings are now so embedded that people ask "which one". Can I put a word in for Teams being bottom of the pile, preferably buried under 12ft of concrete?
Nah Teams is great. Use it continuously including to run North Sea and West of Shetlands drilling operations in real time from a study in Lincolnshire for the last 2 years.
The official response is Boris was just briefly thanking staff....
Clearly another lie and will blow up again.
Either way he dd it on Zoom so who cares
Do you do much on video platforms? Zoom, Teams (boo), Webex (fuck no) and Google Meet (yay) - done the lot. Work, social, and a combination of both.
There is a difference between being on Zoon where you are in the office surrounded by people with remote workers joining remotely and being the remote person. The Mirror article purports that Downing Street was the people hub with lots of illegal people. Which means "he did it on Zoom" is illegal
Video meetings are now so embedded that people ask "which one". Can I put a word in for Teams being bottom of the pile, preferably buried under 12ft of concrete?
Nah Teams is great. Use it continuously including to run North Sea and West of Shetlands drilling operations in real time from a study in Lincolnshire for the last 2 years.
Maybe I should be worried. I'm 39, I had my second vaccine five months ago and won't get a third until sometime in January I suspect. Have I had covid? Possibly. I haven't worked from home much so it would be a surprise if I hadn't.
Where is all the evidence that two vaccines don't 'work' on omicron? As the thread shared by Leon suggests not many vaccinated people in Gauteng are being hospitalised.
I can't imagine anyone as young as 39 being called Frank, no offence.
The really bad news for me is that Husband, unbeknownst to me, has ordered an organic Turkey from a local farmer for Xmas.
Yuck! Can't stand the stuff and have only once in my entire life had it for Xmas.
So I may need to go vegetarian or cook alternative meat. Of course Daughter's place will be open during the day so we won't be eating until the evening anyway by which time, if the whisky treat I have ordered has arrived, I may already have passed out and be quietly snoozing on the sofa.
Plus Son's shift patterns are so awful that he won't be able to catch a train up north so if he is not to be totally alone I will have to fetch him here and back again, which will mean spending a good deal of the hols on the M6. Yay!
Please don't take this the wrong way but do you ever consider you do too much for your children @Cyclefree ?
I cannot remember Mrs P or I expecting or getting anything like that level of support from our parents once we reached 20 or so.
He has been working 11 hour days in his job to earn extra money for the last few weeks and has been completely on his own for most of Covid. He has also suffered from very serious mental health problems in the past. But he has mostly coped fine. Mostly. As you may appreciate these sort of issues place a very great strain on family life so I think it important to try and rebuild and maintain those links and his siblings want that too, as does he - even if he can sometimes be his own worst enemy.
Currently his shift finishes at 8 pm on Xmas Eve and he starts again on the Monday. There are literally no trains that would get him here and back again so he would be completely alone. He has asked to do an earlier shift and start a later shift on his day back so he can use the train like everyone else. Hopefully his bosses will accommodate him.
But, especially if a new lockdown happens, I don't want him to be on his own and I want him to feel a part of his family and be here - in our first family Xmas in our new home. As does he.
Remember also my nephew died by his own hand last year. I do not want my son to feel left out. A car journey - if it has to happen - is a good opportunity for us to have some private time together.
Good for you, Cyclefree. I hope you have a safe journey. (FWIW, I’m slightly surprised at those who don’t go out of their way to help their children.)
The official response is Boris was just briefly thanking staff....
Clearly another lie and will blow up again.
Either way he dd it on Zoom so who cares
Do you do much on video platforms? Zoom, Teams (boo), Webex (fuck no) and Google Meet (yay) - done the lot. Work, social, and a combination of both.
There is a difference between being on Zoon where you are in the office surrounded by people with remote workers joining remotely and being the remote person. The Mirror article purports that Downing Street was the people hub with lots of illegal people. Which means "he did it on Zoom" is illegal
Video meetings are now so embedded that people ask "which one". Can I put a word in for Teams being bottom of the pile, preferably buried under 12ft of concrete?
Its not exactly what most people will have imagined from a Boris party.....very least, i imagined tales of Boris tie on his head, off his tits, dancing on the tables.
I’m not convinced he’s that much fun. Is there any actual evidence of such behaviour, or is it just an image that’s grown up around him ?
The really bad news for me is that Husband, unbeknownst to me, has ordered an organic Turkey from a local farmer for Xmas.
Yuck! Can't stand the stuff and have only once in my entire life had it for Xmas.
So I may need to go vegetarian or cook alternative meat. Of course Daughter's place will be open during the day so we won't be eating until the evening anyway by which time, if the whisky treat I have ordered has arrived, I may already have passed out and be quietly snoozing on the sofa.
Plus Son's shift patterns are so awful that he won't be able to catch a train up north so if he is not to be totally alone I will have to fetch him here and back again, which will mean spending a good deal of the hols on the M6. Yay!
Put it on eBay, collection only. You may be able to sell it for double as Xmas approaches…
Comments
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10297923/Women-deserting-Boris-Johnson-Poll-shows-two-thirds-voters-dont-trust-PM.html
What some people seem to have not accepted yet is that Covid is going to spread either way now. We need to live with it. So if its not you spreading Covid, its somebody else, either now or later on - it isn't going anywhere.
Spreading Covid isn't an issue. Getting sick with Covid is and its the vaccines that work to prevent that.
Vaccinations and boosters are the only way out, not another lockdown
Before I go I had another thought about media narrative.
The smoking gun the Afghan report could unleash might not be pets are us flight, is the advice to ministers in the lead up to the sudden Taliban advance. Do you recall a furious May saying the intelligence to you couldn’t have been that wrong, when ministers were blaming that in the commons. Maybe that part was behind closed doors, we will get to hear the intelligence communities redacted take?
Unless, of course something is slowing it down. Massively.
There is a difference between being on Zoon where you are in the office surrounded by people with remote workers joining remotely and being the remote person. The Mirror article purports that Downing Street was the people hub with lots of illegal people. Which means "he did it on Zoom" is illegal
Video meetings are now so embedded that people ask "which one". Can I put a word in for Teams being bottom of the pile, preferably buried under 12ft of concrete?
Chapter Five - There shall be no Disturbance of Free Elections.
And because elections ought to be free, the King commandeth upon great Forfeiture, that no man by Force of Arms, nor by Malice, or Menacing, shall disturb any to make free Election.
https://books.google.com/books?id=iPQuAAAAIAAJ&pg=PA74#v=onepage&q&f=false
SSI - According to Wiki and legislation.gov.uk, this is the only part of this statute still with force of law.
Incidentally most of this evening I was out at dinner at a Christmas social in Docklands not on PB at all
It's only Gove that you're feeling
Ros Atkins
@BBCRosAtkins
·
7h
THREAD 1/4: We've been taken aback by the response to our No.10 Christmas party videos. They've been watched over 11 million times in 9 days
Most pensioners have had their boosters now so are little affected by Omicron, small businessmen however, Tory core vote in towns and cities up and down the land, would be devastated by another lockdown
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/17012430/boris-johnson-covid-lockdown-rules-dinner-date-carrie/
Its as weak as piss story, but the fact they are putting the boot in says something.
For a number of years, people on the ground in Afghanistan referred to the Afghan President as the Mayor of Kabul. But the group think of the intervening nations was that with just a little more effort.....
The Plan
In the beginning, there was a plan,
And then came the assumptions,
And the assumptions were without form,
And the plan without substance,
And the darkness was upon the face of the workers,
And they spoke among themselves saying,
"It is a crock of shit and it stinks."
And the workers went unto their Supervisors and said,
"It is a pile of dung, and we cannot live with the smell."
And the Supervisors went unto their Managers saying,
"It is a container of excrement, and it is very strong,
Such that none may abide by it."
And the Managers went unto their Directors saying,
"It is a vessel of fertilizer, and none may abide by its strength."
And the Directors spoke among themselves saying to one another,
"It contains that which aids plants growth, and it is very strong."
And the Directors went to the Vice Presidents saying unto them,
"It promotes growth, and it is very powerful."
And the Vice Presidents went to the President, saying unto him,
"This new plan will actively promote the growth and vigor
Of the company With very powerful effects."
And the President looked upon the Plan
And saw that it was good,
And the Plan became Policy.
And this, my friend, is how shit happens.
Sure there is an interesting "kink" in the data around the 29th, but not seeing a step change. Yet.
The Government may be desperate to prevent the disease from spreading out of control and overwhelming the hospitals, but firstly the health and care systems will collapse anyway if a substantial proportion of all their staff are self-isolating at once, and secondly society itself will implode if there aren't enough people still working to ensure continuity of grocery, water and power supplies, and of industry and agriculture.
I can see circumstances under which the Government could be forced to scrap self-isolation and the whole test and trace system, and accept that people who have the illness but are asymptomatic or suffering from the sniffles will have to be let out to keep working, just to stop everything from falling apart. It'd probably finish off the pandemic by spreading natural immunity to virtually everyone whose immune system isn't already able to repel Omicron within a very short space of time, but unless this variant turns out to be very mild indeed that might also end with emergency field hospitals and large scale rationing of life saving care. It is a grim prospect.
E.g. he did it here...
Useful daily data from @AlistairGrant4 showing yesterday around 10% of pcr cases tested in England were Omicron - translates to well over 8000 likely daily cases based on ZOE estimates. Travel restrictions on those coming in look pretty pointless as does track and trace.
https://twitter.com/timspector/status/1469351222272536577?t=al_4zj-nylI4rCXcscy-Vg&s=19
- New cases: 1,002
- Average: 687 (+114)
- Positivity rate: 97.3% (+46.3)
- In hospital: 54
- New deaths: 0
- Average: 0 (-)
That positivity rate......
The only problem with that is that the we are not seeing the zoom away numbers to match the experiences of places that have got to that kind of level of Winnie-The-Pooh
Lets not pretend small business owners are the biggest Conservative voting block. The Conservative party is reliant upon the retired. lose them and there would be nothing left.
In 2019 however the Tories won all voters over 39, not just all voters over 65. Small businessmen are a pivotal part of the Tory coalition without whom they cannot win.
As the polling shows most voters do not want another lockdown apart from mainly Labour voting public sector workers and civil servants who will get paid full wages to wfh anyway.
There will thus be no further lockdown from this Tory government
You will not get one
But the government’s prospects of successfully imposing new restrictions on the public were questioned on Saturday by senior behavioural experts. They have warned that reports of Downing Street parties, where Covid rules were allegedly flouted last year, have caused widespread anger and resentment.
“It is always more difficult to re-apply restrictions because people are fatigued and generally fed up,” said Linda Bauld, a professor of public health at Edinburgh University. “But now it’s going to be even harder, because trust has been eroded to a very significant level. People are really fed up with the government. And if you don’t trust the government, why would you do what the government asked you to do?”
Bauld said it was likely that far more people would flout rules if they were asked to limit numbers allowed indoors at one time, as happened last winter. “Many are likely to say: I’m fed up, I don’t trust this government, and I want to see my friends and family, so I’m just going to ignore the rule.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/12/scientists-fear-falling-trust-in-boris-johnson-could-harm-bid-to-curb-omicron-surge
I'm sure that Professor Bauld is on the money with her prediction - to say nothing of another factor that is not mentioned in her quoted response. The fear that this will never end, so bearing with the rules in the vain hope of finally seeing the back of cyclical lockdowns (especially if the people who are meeting each other are all relatively low risk anyway) feels utterly futile.
You stand for the elders of this society. Putting them to the chop would seem a little out of character. But I'll love to see how it is spun.
As the Conservatives are clearly missing the Cummings brilliancy's. I'll give you a free slogan to pass on.
'Get Gran's Gaff'
I don't know anyone who is prepared to change their xmas plans this year unless they literally have roadblocks set up.
I think a lot more will fall in line for the lockdown from 3rd Jan, which is my prediction. "We've had xmas, now is the time to keep heads down for a month" etc.
It is a government for the old. They elected it and will sustain it. Their priorities will prevail.
Remember Cameron won teachers in 2010.
Small business is fine if you want 5% of the vote.
But that would require an entirely new set of policies. And voters.
(FWIW, I’m slightly surprised at those who don’t go out of their way to help their children.)
Is there any actual evidence of such behaviour, or is it just an image that’s grown up around him ?