Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

The week that the polls turned against the Tories – politicalbetting.com

13468912

Comments

  • What we really need is a poll of the marginals.

    The ICM marginals poll in September/October 2007 really was a game changer.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    .

    Scott_xP said:

    Something is stirring.

    This has a feeling of the election that never was in 2007

    Only another 3 years of BoZo?
    Maybe not

    1) The Tories are a bit more ruthless than Labour

    2) There's a sleazy stench around Boris Johnson that there was never with Gordon Brown, sleaze could play a part that wasn't an issue for Brown
    Interesting to consider Brown versus Johnson - complete opposites in every respect.
    I have a piece that goes up on either on Boxing Day or the 2nd of January and I actually note the similarities between Brown and Johnson.

    1) Both wanted to be PM for decades and yet when they became PM there was a lack of drift, both went through SPADS at a phenomenal rate

    2) The Brexit Deal being oven ready and awesome is Johnson's we abolished boom and bust moment.
    You might want to have a think about the “lack of drift” thing.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    Final train of the day. 20 mins or so. It's rammed. Am in the vestibule with 5 others. We are all masked. So there is another reason why my FFP2 mask is required

    so let me get this straight - you know your wife is covid positive and you get on a rammed train? Now even I dont do that. I think you are a classic case of thinking a mask will solve everything so you can go on that train
    He's going TO her ...
  • Nigelb said:

    .

    Scott_xP said:

    Something is stirring.

    This has a feeling of the election that never was in 2007

    Only another 3 years of BoZo?
    Maybe not

    1) The Tories are a bit more ruthless than Labour

    2) There's a sleazy stench around Boris Johnson that there was never with Gordon Brown, sleaze could play a part that wasn't an issue for Brown
    Interesting to consider Brown versus Johnson - complete opposites in every respect.
    I have a piece that goes up on either on Boxing Day or the 2nd of January and I actually note the similarities between Brown and Johnson.

    1) Both wanted to be PM for decades and yet when they became PM there was a lack of drift, both went through SPADS at a phenomenal rate

    2) The Brexit Deal being oven ready and awesome is Johnson's we abolished boom and bust moment.
    You might want to have a think about the “lack of drift” thing.
    Yeah, it is a work in progress.

    I'm still distracted by AJ's and Kai's first dance in tonight's Strictly.
  • Stereodog said:

    Held off commenting until now but here are my reflections as a Civil Servant on the myriad party stories. Whatever the press says about public sector staff WFH, a significant group at the centre worked long hours in the office throughout the pandemic in order to keep the lights on. I have some sympathy for the slippery line between blowing off some steam as a team and holding a full blown party. Doubtless some teams got it wrong and a swift apology would be appropriate. I'm also conflicted because it would have been quite easy for Boris to sell out his staff once the story blew up. However, the reflexive denial and the arrogant belief that even the most ridiculous statement can become true if repeated enough is hard to understand. If Boris had taken responsibility for his staff and apologised then this story could have been put to bed quickly with the appropriate lessons learnt

    The lesson is dont make rules if you cannot keep them yourself or yourselves .
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    I feel a sudden urge to watch TTOI, Rise of the Nutters
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    edited December 2021
    Stereodog said:

    Held off commenting until now but here are my reflections as a Civil Servant on the myriad party stories. Whatever the press says about public sector staff WFH, a significant group at the centre worked long hours in the office throughout the pandemic in order to keep the lights on. I have some sympathy for the slippery line between blowing off some steam as a team and holding a full blown party. Doubtless some teams got it wrong and a swift apology would be appropriate. I'm also conflicted because it would have been quite easy for Boris to sell out his staff once the story blew up. However, the reflexive denial and the arrogant belief that even the most ridiculous statement can become true if repeated enough is hard to understand. If Boris had taken responsibility for his staff and apologised then this story could have been put to bed quickly with the appropriate lessons learnt

    I would point out that teachers had longer hours and more intense pressures, and no prospect of working from home even in actual lockdown in many cases.

    We didn't have Christmas parties. In fact, on the last day of term I spent an hour alone tidying the last classroom I'd taught in before going home.

    Nor so far as I know did doctors or nurses, under far more intense pressure, have parties.

    I am afraid that if that is the best defence the CS can come up with, they're comprehensively fucked and will be lucky if only sackings result.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨 Labour takes a NINE pint lead in the latest @OpiniumResearch poll for @ObserverUK 🚨

    CON 32
    LAB 41
    LD 9
    Green 5
    SNP 5

    *It is the biggest lead, from Opinium, since March 2014*

    https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1469759064796246017

    @michaelsavage @OpiniumResearch @ObserverUK 🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺

    SKS haters, please explain.
    Not a hater but here's my take

    Imagine a tower block like the one in the Towering Inferno

    There's a penthouse suite on the 150th floor where a bloke, let's call him Jackson, is doing coke and knobbing birds and generally being King of the World, and there's a small accountancy business on the 6th floor where a dreary balding bloke, call him Keith, is keeping up his chargeable hours. Now imagine Jackson falls off the balcony and splats on the street. Suddenly Keith is a neck breaking height above Jackson, just by virtue of where he is. Doesn't need to get in the lift, no reason to think he even knows how the lift works.
    weird
    I wasn't talking to you, and I strongly suggest you f off to a forum where your one trick oh look at me I'm a fucking anarchist shtick attracts something other than contemptuous derision.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=th4Czv1j3F8
    I told you I am not going to do that and again, calm down, I actually thought your weird analogy was quite creative and admired the art of it! Anyway even if you think i am an anarchist why would you not want me on here - are we all supposed to think the same .Have I walked into a groupthink environment?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375
    Scott_xP said:
    Understandable. If I worked for Therese Coffey I'd be drinking into the night.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    xxxxx5 said:

    Can someone explain to me how Sir Keir wins the next election? I get Boris is in big trouble, but can anyone really see Sir Keir taking seats like Mansfield, Bassetlaw and Ashfield all Tory Leave seats with large majorities for leave. The Tories also have the boundary changes to push through. I still cannot see a Labour majority. But I could be wrong.

    Targets 90, 159 and 200 ?

    Starmer doesn't need any of them to become PM.
    You've brought facts to a wishlist there Pulpstar.
  • xxxxx5xxxxx5 Posts: 38
    Are we heading then for a 1992 result or a 2010 in reverse? I still think it's going to be difficult for Labour to form the next government but not impossible.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,643
    Alas, brisk trade at the CV19 test centre this afternoon.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    That's a reasonable question. Which of the likely frontrunners would lose their seats on these numbers and UNS?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    ydoethur said:

    Stereodog said:

    Held off commenting until now but here are my reflections as a Civil Servant on the myriad party stories. Whatever the press says about public sector staff WFH, a significant group at the centre worked long hours in the office throughout the pandemic in order to keep the lights on. I have some sympathy for the slippery line between blowing off some steam as a team and holding a full blown party. Doubtless some teams got it wrong and a swift apology would be appropriate. I'm also conflicted because it would have been quite easy for Boris to sell out his staff once the story blew up. However, the reflexive denial and the arrogant belief that even the most ridiculous statement can become true if repeated enough is hard to understand. If Boris had taken responsibility for his staff and apologised then this story could have been put to bed quickly with the appropriate lessons learnt

    I would point out that teachers had longer hours and more intense pressures, and no prospect of working from home even in actual lockdown in many cases.

    We didn't have Christmas parties. In fact, on the last day of term I spent an hour alone tidying the last classroom I'd taught in before going home.

    Nor so far as I know did doctors or nurses, under far more intense pressure, have parties.

    I am afraid that if that is the best defence the CS can come up with, they're comprehensively fucked and will be lucky if only sackings result.
    Isn't it the case that the No10 parties were Boris's political staff - SPADs and the like - not civil servants, in the main?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited December 2021

    What we really need is a poll of the marginals.

    The ICM marginals poll in September/October 2007 really was a game changer.

    The poll we need is Red Wall with Brexit Party (whatever their name is) standing and without.

    There is a lot of lazy assumptions that Brexit Party was borrowed Tory votes but as we saw previously (UKIP 2015) did not equal (Tory 2017) .
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,376
    Interesting. Saint Jacinda strikes again

    https://twitter.com/electionwiz/status/1469418652562866182?s=21
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    xxxxx5 said:

    Are we heading then for a 1992 result or a 2010 in reverse? I still think it's going to be difficult for Labour to form the next government but not impossible.

    1992 is probably the most plausible result, although the precedent is an uncomfortable one for the Tories. If ever there was a cursed victory...

    But a 2010 style reverse isn't impossible. Indeed, arguably it would be the best outcome given the damage it would do the SNP. Back Labour and get no second referendum anyway - or keep the Tories in office? Not a choice they would relish.
  • Stereodog said:

    Held off commenting until now but here are my reflections as a Civil Servant on the myriad party stories. Whatever the press says about public sector staff WFH, a significant group at the centre worked long hours in the office throughout the pandemic in order to keep the lights on. I have some sympathy for the slippery line between blowing off some steam as a team and holding a full blown party. Doubtless some teams got it wrong and a swift apology would be appropriate. I'm also conflicted because it would have been quite easy for Boris to sell out his staff once the story blew up. However, the reflexive denial and the arrogant belief that even the most ridiculous statement can become true if repeated enough is hard to understand. If Boris had taken responsibility for his staff and apologised then this story could have been put to bed quickly with the appropriate lessons learnt

    The lesson is dont make rules if you cannot keep them yourself or yourselves .
    Firstly Civil Servants don't make the rules. Secondly I'm not saying it's right what happened I'm just saying I can see how it did.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    Scott_xP said:

    I feel a sudden urge to watch TTOI, Rise of the Nutters

    Tbf the current series of TTOI, playing out on the news with daily eposides, is a bit far-fetched.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,630
    edited December 2021
    xxxxx5 said:

    Are we heading then for a 1992 result or a 2010 in reverse? I still think it's going to be difficult for Labour to form the next government but not impossible.

    2010 in reverse.

    More a case the Tories win the most seats in 2024 but they cannot function as minority government as they are too far away from 310 (where I think the Tories could function as a minority government) that a temporary rainbow coalition takes power for a while until a new election.

    As David Cameron said, going into an election as PM gives you huge powers and advantages, something Starmer would have.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    xxxxx5 said:

    Are we heading then for a 1992 result or a 2010 in reverse? I still think it's going to be difficult for Labour to form the next government but not impossible.

    92 if they change leader, 2010 reverse if they don't now imo.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    @IshmaelZ a win is a win

    Yeah that was meant to be my point. I have driven for 5 hours and ridden a horse for 5 hours today, and have had a drink.

    Later.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    edited December 2021

    ydoethur said:

    Stereodog said:

    Held off commenting until now but here are my reflections as a Civil Servant on the myriad party stories. Whatever the press says about public sector staff WFH, a significant group at the centre worked long hours in the office throughout the pandemic in order to keep the lights on. I have some sympathy for the slippery line between blowing off some steam as a team and holding a full blown party. Doubtless some teams got it wrong and a swift apology would be appropriate. I'm also conflicted because it would have been quite easy for Boris to sell out his staff once the story blew up. However, the reflexive denial and the arrogant belief that even the most ridiculous statement can become true if repeated enough is hard to understand. If Boris had taken responsibility for his staff and apologised then this story could have been put to bed quickly with the appropriate lessons learnt

    I would point out that teachers had longer hours and more intense pressures, and no prospect of working from home even in actual lockdown in many cases.

    We didn't have Christmas parties. In fact, on the last day of term I spent an hour alone tidying the last classroom I'd taught in before going home.

    Nor so far as I know did doctors or nurses, under far more intense pressure, have parties.

    I am afraid that if that is the best defence the CS can come up with, they're comprehensively fucked and will be lucky if only sackings result.
    Isn't it the case that the No10 parties were Boris's political staff - SPADs and the like - not civil servants, in the main?
    Fair point, although the line has become so blurred it's hard to tell now.

    But the thrust still applies. Would anyone actually notice if all these SPADs had fecked off for 18 months? I would argue not given how poor most of their advice is.

    Yet if they really think they are indispensable and deserve to blow off steam when those of us working hard in dangerous conditions didn't, they're in deep shit.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    .

    Stereodog said:

    Held off commenting until now but here are my reflections as a Civil Servant on the myriad party stories. Whatever the press says about public sector staff WFH, a significant group at the centre worked long hours in the office throughout the pandemic in order to keep the lights on. I have some sympathy for the slippery line between blowing off some steam as a team and holding a full blown party. Doubtless some teams got it wrong and a swift apology would be appropriate. I'm also conflicted because it would have been quite easy for Boris to sell out his staff once the story blew up. However, the reflexive denial and the arrogant belief that even the most ridiculous statement can become true if repeated enough is hard to understand. If Boris had taken responsibility for his staff and apologised then this story could have been put to bed quickly with the appropriate lessons learnt

    The lesson is dont make rules if you cannot keep them yourself or yourselves .
    And don’t lie through your teeth over stuff you will never keep secret.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990


    Tbf the current series of TTOI, playing out on the news with daily eposides, is a bit far-fetched.

    And I don't like any of the characters
  • ydoethur said:

    Stereodog said:

    Held off commenting until now but here are my reflections as a Civil Servant on the myriad party stories. Whatever the press says about public sector staff WFH, a significant group at the centre worked long hours in the office throughout the pandemic in order to keep the lights on. I have some sympathy for the slippery line between blowing off some steam as a team and holding a full blown party. Doubtless some teams got it wrong and a swift apology would be appropriate. I'm also conflicted because it would have been quite easy for Boris to sell out his staff once the story blew up. However, the reflexive denial and the arrogant belief that even the most ridiculous statement can become true if repeated enough is hard to understand. If Boris had taken responsibility for his staff and apologised then this story could have been put to bed quickly with the appropriate lessons learnt

    I would point out that teachers had longer hours and more intense pressures, and no prospect of working from home even in actual lockdown in many cases.

    We didn't have Christmas parties. In fact, on the last day of term I spent an hour alone tidying the last classroom I'd taught in before going home.

    Nor so far as I know did doctors or nurses, under far more intense pressure, have parties.

    I am afraid that if that is the best defence the CS can come up with, they're comprehensively fucked and will be lucky if only sackings result.
    Isn't it the case that the No10 parties were Boris's political staff - SPADs and the like - not civil servants, in the main?
    Yeah that's definitely true. I was thinking more of the myriad other stories that seem to be coming out about other departments.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    One thing, regardless of who is the Tory leader at the next GE, they'll want the boundary changes through.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859

    Ratters said:

    I don't see how Boris lasts until the next election. Which is a shame as he would be very easily beatable.

    Isn't that the point? The remaining PB Peppa apologists bleat on about people being anto Boris as if we are doing it for partisan reasons.

    The best way for Labour to remove the Tories is for Liar to stay in office. We all need rid of him because of the egregious damage his government is doing. Removing him and replacing him with someone not a tosser makes that job harder.
    Labour will put its party interest above the national interest, just like the Tories.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    edited December 2021
    xxxxx5 said:

    Are we heading then for a 1992 result or a 2010 in reverse? I still think it's going to be difficult for Labour to form the next government but not impossible.

    Once you start looking at the constituency by constituency situation, from the perspective of the labour party the mountain to climb is huge, almost insurmountable. All the problems that existed before (the impossibility of reconciling the interests of its metropolitan radical supporters and its traditional declining base) still exist. One of the problems is that, despite his popular appeal as a sensible and serious chap; Starmer doesn't actually have an answer to these existential problems.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    Surely the most worrying thing about Boris being forced out is that the Deputy PM is that berk Raab?

    Boris is inept, but Raab makes Boris look like genius.

    Lol - too true!

    Nice to see you again @Beibheirli_C 👍
    Thank you. I have a quiet night tonight and popped back for a bit of a Xmas session.
    I miss your perceptive contributions, please don't stay away so long next time ;-)
  • Stereodog said:

    Stereodog said:

    Held off commenting until now but here are my reflections as a Civil Servant on the myriad party stories. Whatever the press says about public sector staff WFH, a significant group at the centre worked long hours in the office throughout the pandemic in order to keep the lights on. I have some sympathy for the slippery line between blowing off some steam as a team and holding a full blown party. Doubtless some teams got it wrong and a swift apology would be appropriate. I'm also conflicted because it would have been quite easy for Boris to sell out his staff once the story blew up. However, the reflexive denial and the arrogant belief that even the most ridiculous statement can become true if repeated enough is hard to understand. If Boris had taken responsibility for his staff and apologised then this story could have been put to bed quickly with the appropriate lessons learnt

    The lesson is dont make rules if you cannot keep them yourself or yourselves .
    Firstly Civil Servants don't make the rules. Secondly I'm not saying it's right what happened I'm just saying I can see how it did.
    But they are supposed to know the rules, right? AND obey them?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,520
    edited December 2021
    xxxxx5 said:

    Can someone explain to me how Sir Keir wins the next election? I get Boris is in big trouble, but can anyone really see Sir Keir taking seats like Mansfield, Bassetlaw and Ashfield all Tory Leave seats with large majorities for leave. The Tories also have the boundary changes to push through. I still cannot see a Labour majority. But I could be wrong.

    He says that Brexit is settled, that there are now far more important matters to be addressed and that Johnson, whatever his past triumphs, is clearly not now fit to be PM.

    It is the first of these that is key. If Starmer can make a believable case for not reopening Brexit then there is no reason why those sorts of seats should not turn back to him.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,376

    xxxxx5 said:

    Can someone explain to me how Sir Keir wins the next election? I get Boris is in big trouble, but can anyone really see Sir Keir taking seats like Mansfield, Bassetlaw and Ashfield all Tory Leave seats with large majorities for leave. The Tories also have the boundary changes to push through. I still cannot see a Labour majority. But I could be wrong.

    Because Brexit is done and seats in the red wall want levelling up, which they were promised.
    Exactly and if it doesn’t happen there will be a price to,pay.

  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨 Labour takes a NINE pint lead in the latest @OpiniumResearch poll for @ObserverUK 🚨

    CON 32
    LAB 41
    LD 9
    Green 5
    SNP 5

    *It is the biggest lead, from Opinium, since March 2014*

    https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1469759064796246017

    @michaelsavage @OpiniumResearch @ObserverUK 🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺

    SKS haters, please explain.
    Not a hater but here's my take

    Imagine a tower block like the one in the Towering Inferno

    There's a penthouse suite on the 150th floor where a bloke, let's call him Jackson, is doing coke and knobbing birds and generally being King of the World, and there's a small accountancy business on the 6th floor where a dreary balding bloke, call him Keith, is keeping up his chargeable hours. Now imagine Jackson falls off the balcony and splats on the street. Suddenly Keith is a neck breaking height above Jackson, just by virtue of where he is. Doesn't need to get in the lift, no reason to think he even knows how the lift works.
    I swear I read a Martin Amis novel with exactly that plotline.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,274
    Oh dear. Boris the loser!

    The wheels have well and truly come off the trolley!
  • Alistair said:

    What we really need is a poll of the marginals.

    The ICM marginals poll in September/October 2007 really was a game changer.

    The poll we need is Red Wall with Brexit Party (whatever their name is) standing and without.

    There is a lot of lazy assumptions that Brexit Party was borrowed Tory votes but as we saw previously (UKIP 2015) did not equal (Tory 2017) .
    Hartlepool proved that it wasn't a lazy assumption.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    xxxxx5 said:

    Are we heading then for a 1992 result or a 2010 in reverse? I still think it's going to be difficult for Labour to form the next government but not impossible.


    We're heading for another two years when anything could happen. The past is of little use in predicting political futures.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    edited December 2021
    ydoethur said:

    Stereodog said:

    Held off commenting until now but here are my reflections as a Civil Servant on the myriad party stories. Whatever the press says about public sector staff WFH, a significant group at the centre worked long hours in the office throughout the pandemic in order to keep the lights on. I have some sympathy for the slippery line between blowing off some steam as a team and holding a full blown party. Doubtless some teams got it wrong and a swift apology would be appropriate. I'm also conflicted because it would have been quite easy for Boris to sell out his staff once the story blew up. However, the reflexive denial and the arrogant belief that even the most ridiculous statement can become true if repeated enough is hard to understand. If Boris had taken responsibility for his staff and apologised then this story could have been put to bed quickly with the appropriate lessons learnt

    I would point out that teachers had longer hours and more intense pressures, and no prospect of working from home even in actual lockdown in many cases.

    We didn't have Christmas parties. In fact, on the last day of term I spent an hour alone tidying the last classroom I'd taught in before going home.

    Nor so far as I know did doctors or nurses, under far more intense pressure, have parties.

    I am afraid that if that is the best defence the CS can come up with, they're comprehensively fucked and will be lucky if only sackings result.
    It’s not defensible, agreed - but had they fessed up, apologies been issued, disciplinaries, etc at the beginning of the year, they’d probably have got away with it.
    Determinedly pretending it didn’t happen for so long will sink this administration. It’s taking the piss twice over.
  • Stereodog said:

    Stereodog said:

    Held off commenting until now but here are my reflections as a Civil Servant on the myriad party stories. Whatever the press says about public sector staff WFH, a significant group at the centre worked long hours in the office throughout the pandemic in order to keep the lights on. I have some sympathy for the slippery line between blowing off some steam as a team and holding a full blown party. Doubtless some teams got it wrong and a swift apology would be appropriate. I'm also conflicted because it would have been quite easy for Boris to sell out his staff once the story blew up. However, the reflexive denial and the arrogant belief that even the most ridiculous statement can become true if repeated enough is hard to understand. If Boris had taken responsibility for his staff and apologised then this story could have been put to bed quickly with the appropriate lessons learnt

    The lesson is dont make rules if you cannot keep them yourself or yourselves .
    Firstly Civil Servants don't make the rules. Secondly I'm not saying it's right what happened I'm just saying I can see how it did.
    Being an ex civil servant myself (I know) they kinda do make the rules in reality in most cases. I personally could not give a monkeys whether they had a party (I had a few last year as well) but they cant complain about getting fired if they are caught given their central roles (I mean they are not working for the DWP in Mansfield are they?)
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496
    edited December 2021
    IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨 Labour takes a NINE pint lead in the latest @OpiniumResearch poll for @ObserverUK 🚨

    CON 32
    LAB 41
    LD 9
    Green 5
    SNP 5

    *It is the biggest lead, from Opinium, since March 2014*

    https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1469759064796246017

    @michaelsavage @OpiniumResearch @ObserverUK 🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺

    SKS haters, please explain.
    Not a hater but here's my take

    Imagine a tower block like the one in the Towering Inferno

    There's a penthouse suite on the 150th floor where a bloke, let's call him Jackson, is doing coke and knobbing birds and generally being King of the World, and there's a small accountancy business on the 6th floor where a dreary balding bloke, call him Keith, is keeping up his chargeable hours. Now imagine Jackson falls off the balcony and splats on the street. Suddenly Keith is a neck breaking height above Jackson, just by virtue of where he is. Doesn't need to get in the lift, no reason to think he even knows how the lift works.
    It's a 'Cambridge change' in philosophy. In modern times attributed to Peter Geach, but actually thought up by Thomas Aquinas. Keith has done nothing but none the less has changed. All political change is relational. So there.

    And we might get SKS v Hunt, snoresville, when we could have had Jess Phillips and Boris going 15 rounds.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Stereodog said:

    Held off commenting until now but here are my reflections as a Civil Servant on the myriad party stories. Whatever the press says about public sector staff WFH, a significant group at the centre worked long hours in the office throughout the pandemic in order to keep the lights on. I have some sympathy for the slippery line between blowing off some steam as a team and holding a full blown party. Doubtless some teams got it wrong and a swift apology would be appropriate. I'm also conflicted because it would have been quite easy for Boris to sell out his staff once the story blew up. However, the reflexive denial and the arrogant belief that even the most ridiculous statement can become true if repeated enough is hard to understand. If Boris had taken responsibility for his staff and apologised then this story could have been put to bed quickly with the appropriate lessons learnt

    I would point out that teachers had longer hours and more intense pressures, and no prospect of working from home even in actual lockdown in many cases.

    We didn't have Christmas parties. In fact, on the last day of term I spent an hour alone tidying the last classroom I'd taught in before going home.

    Nor so far as I know did doctors or nurses, under far more intense pressure, have parties.

    I am afraid that if that is the best defence the CS can come up with, they're comprehensively fucked and will be lucky if only sackings result.
    It’s not defensible, agreed - but had they fessed up, apologies been issued, disciplinaries, etc at the beginning of the year, they’d probably have got away with it.
    Determinedly pretending it didn’t happen for so long will sink this administration. It’s taking the piss twice over.
    Not the CS; Johnson's political staff, just saying
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited December 2021
    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo likes Churchill...

    "This is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning."

    The Wheel of Time turns, and Ages come and pass, leaving memories that become legend. Legend fades to myth, and even myth is long forgotten when the Age that gave it birth comes again. In one Age, called the Third Age by some, an Age yet to come, an Age long past, a wind rose over the River Thames. The wind was not the beginning. There are neither beginnings nor endings to the Wheel of Time. But it was a beginning.
  • Two critical questions. Has Boris trashing his own brand and that of the government come too early for Labour? Is there a face-saving way of getting him out or would the Tories do better to remove him "with prejudice"?
  • Stereodog said:

    Held off commenting until now but here are my reflections as a Civil Servant on the myriad party stories. Whatever the press says about public sector staff WFH, a significant group at the centre worked long hours in the office throughout the pandemic in order to keep the lights on. I have some sympathy for the slippery line between blowing off some steam as a team and holding a full blown party. Doubtless some teams got it wrong and a swift apology would be appropriate. I'm also conflicted because it would have been quite easy for Boris to sell out his staff once the story blew up. However, the reflexive denial and the arrogant belief that even the most ridiculous statement can become true if repeated enough is hard to understand. If Boris had taken responsibility for his staff and apologised then this story could have been put to bed quickly with the appropriate lessons learnt

    The issue with that is that there were millions of people working long hours in the office or factory floor or hospital and they were not able to say, sod it lets have a few drinks because we deserve them. Yes they may have deserved them but they chose to follow the guidance and forego them. Civil Servants are no different to many millions of other essential workers who cannot work from home no matter what the risk.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,274

    xxxxx5 said:

    Can someone explain to me how Sir Keir wins the next election? I get Boris is in big trouble, but can anyone really see Sir Keir taking seats like Mansfield, Bassetlaw and Ashfield all Tory Leave seats with large majorities for leave. The Tories also have the boundary changes to push through. I still cannot see a Labour majority. But I could be wrong.

    He says that Brexit is settled, that there are now far more important matters to be addressed and that Johnson, whatever his past triumphs, is clearly not now fit to be PM.

    It is the first of these that is key. If Starmer can make a believable case for not reopening Brexit then there is no reason why those sorts of seats should not turn back to him.
    You just know though that during an election campaign, you'll get various Labour MPs shooting their mouths off about reopening Brexit and the Mail and Sun will have a field day.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨 Labour takes a NINE pint lead in the latest @OpiniumResearch poll for @ObserverUK 🚨

    CON 32
    LAB 41
    LD 9
    Green 5
    SNP 5

    *It is the biggest lead, from Opinium, since March 2014*

    https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1469759064796246017

    @michaelsavage @OpiniumResearch @ObserverUK 🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺

    SKS haters, please explain.
    Not a hater but here's my take

    Imagine a tower block like the one in the Towering Inferno

    There's a penthouse suite on the 150th floor where a bloke, let's call him Jackson, is doing coke and knobbing birds and generally being King of the World, and there's a small accountancy business on the 6th floor where a dreary balding bloke, call him Keith, is keeping up his chargeable hours. Now imagine Jackson falls off the balcony and splats on the street. Suddenly Keith is a neck breaking height above Jackson, just by virtue of where he is. Doesn't need to get in the lift, no reason to think he even knows how the lift works.
    I swear I read a Martin Amis novel with exactly that plotline.
    Gotta feeling I may have started to read that one.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    edited December 2021

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Stereodog said:

    Held off commenting until now but here are my reflections as a Civil Servant on the myriad party stories. Whatever the press says about public sector staff WFH, a significant group at the centre worked long hours in the office throughout the pandemic in order to keep the lights on. I have some sympathy for the slippery line between blowing off some steam as a team and holding a full blown party. Doubtless some teams got it wrong and a swift apology would be appropriate. I'm also conflicted because it would have been quite easy for Boris to sell out his staff once the story blew up. However, the reflexive denial and the arrogant belief that even the most ridiculous statement can become true if repeated enough is hard to understand. If Boris had taken responsibility for his staff and apologised then this story could have been put to bed quickly with the appropriate lessons learnt

    I would point out that teachers had longer hours and more intense pressures, and no prospect of working from home even in actual lockdown in many cases.

    We didn't have Christmas parties. In fact, on the last day of term I spent an hour alone tidying the last classroom I'd taught in before going home.

    Nor so far as I know did doctors or nurses, under far more intense pressure, have parties.

    I am afraid that if that is the best defence the CS can come up with, they're comprehensively fucked and will be lucky if only sackings result.
    It’s not defensible, agreed - but had they fessed up, apologies been issued, disciplinaries, etc at the beginning of the year, they’d probably have got away with it.
    Determinedly pretending it didn’t happen for so long will sink this administration. It’s taking the piss twice over.
    Not the CS; Johnson's political staff, just saying
    It looks like it was both. That's an issue.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Stereodog said:

    Held off commenting until now but here are my reflections as a Civil Servant on the myriad party stories. Whatever the press says about public sector staff WFH, a significant group at the centre worked long hours in the office throughout the pandemic in order to keep the lights on. I have some sympathy for the slippery line between blowing off some steam as a team and holding a full blown party. Doubtless some teams got it wrong and a swift apology would be appropriate. I'm also conflicted because it would have been quite easy for Boris to sell out his staff once the story blew up. However, the reflexive denial and the arrogant belief that even the most ridiculous statement can become true if repeated enough is hard to understand. If Boris had taken responsibility for his staff and apologised then this story could have been put to bed quickly with the appropriate lessons learnt

    I would point out that teachers had longer hours and more intense pressures, and no prospect of working from home even in actual lockdown in many cases.

    We didn't have Christmas parties. In fact, on the last day of term I spent an hour alone tidying the last classroom I'd taught in before going home.

    Nor so far as I know did doctors or nurses, under far more intense pressure, have parties.

    I am afraid that if that is the best defence the CS can come up with, they're comprehensively fucked and will be lucky if only sackings result.
    It’s not defensible, agreed - but had they fessed up, apologies been issued, disciplinaries, etc at the beginning of the year, they’d probably have got away with it.
    Determinedly pretending it didn’t happen for so long will sink this administration. It’s taking the piss twice over.
    Not the CS; Johnson's political staff, just saying
    It looks like it was both. That's an issue.
    You have the names?
  • GIN1138 said:

    xxxxx5 said:

    Can someone explain to me how Sir Keir wins the next election? I get Boris is in big trouble, but can anyone really see Sir Keir taking seats like Mansfield, Bassetlaw and Ashfield all Tory Leave seats with large majorities for leave. The Tories also have the boundary changes to push through. I still cannot see a Labour majority. But I could be wrong.

    He says that Brexit is settled, that there are now far more important matters to be addressed and that Johnson, whatever his past triumphs, is clearly not now fit to be PM.

    It is the first of these that is key. If Starmer can make a believable case for not reopening Brexit then there is no reason why those sorts of seats should not turn back to him.
    You just know though that during an election campaign, you'll get various Labour MPs shooting their mouths off about reopening Brexit and the Mail and Sun will have a field day.
    So you deal with it. Every campaign has its hiccups and I would not be so sure that on current headlines Johnson will be able to rely on either the Mail or the Sun.
  • Stereodog said:

    Held off commenting until now but here are my reflections as a Civil Servant on the myriad party stories. Whatever the press says about public sector staff WFH, a significant group at the centre worked long hours in the office throughout the pandemic in order to keep the lights on. I have some sympathy for the slippery line between blowing off some steam as a team and holding a full blown party. Doubtless some teams got it wrong and a swift apology would be appropriate. I'm also conflicted because it would have been quite easy for Boris to sell out his staff once the story blew up. However, the reflexive denial and the arrogant belief that even the most ridiculous statement can become true if repeated enough is hard to understand. If Boris had taken responsibility for his staff and apologised then this story could have been put to bed quickly with the appropriate lessons learnt

    The issue with that is that there were millions of people working long hours in the office or factory floor or hospital and they were not able to say, sod it lets have a few drinks because we deserve them. Yes they may have deserved them but they chose to follow the guidance and forego them. Civil Servants are no different to many millions of other essential workers who cannot work from home no matter what the risk.
    I agree but we might have to be a bit pragmatic about investigating this. Would sacking the entire senior civil service in Whitehall with immediate effect be a good idea?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    Two critical questions. Has Boris trashing his own brand and that of the government come too early for Labour? Is there a face-saving way of getting him out or would the Tories do better to remove him "with prejudice"?

    His successor might think it better to remove him with prejudice :)
  • Stereodog said:

    Stereodog said:

    Held off commenting until now but here are my reflections as a Civil Servant on the myriad party stories. Whatever the press says about public sector staff WFH, a significant group at the centre worked long hours in the office throughout the pandemic in order to keep the lights on. I have some sympathy for the slippery line between blowing off some steam as a team and holding a full blown party. Doubtless some teams got it wrong and a swift apology would be appropriate. I'm also conflicted because it would have been quite easy for Boris to sell out his staff once the story blew up. However, the reflexive denial and the arrogant belief that even the most ridiculous statement can become true if repeated enough is hard to understand. If Boris had taken responsibility for his staff and apologised then this story could have been put to bed quickly with the appropriate lessons learnt

    The lesson is dont make rules if you cannot keep them yourself or yourselves .
    Firstly Civil Servants don't make the rules. Secondly I'm not saying it's right what happened I'm just saying I can see how it did.
    But they are supposed to know the rules, right? AND obey them?
    Agreed and I think anyone who broke them should have admitted it and taken the consequences. I just have some sympathy for how narrow the line can be. For example my old boss used to do wine Thursday where she'd bring a bottle and we'd all have a paper cup full. If that team has to be in the office during the pandemic is that a party or not?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,274

    GIN1138 said:

    xxxxx5 said:

    Can someone explain to me how Sir Keir wins the next election? I get Boris is in big trouble, but can anyone really see Sir Keir taking seats like Mansfield, Bassetlaw and Ashfield all Tory Leave seats with large majorities for leave. The Tories also have the boundary changes to push through. I still cannot see a Labour majority. But I could be wrong.

    He says that Brexit is settled, that there are now far more important matters to be addressed and that Johnson, whatever his past triumphs, is clearly not now fit to be PM.

    It is the first of these that is key. If Starmer can make a believable case for not reopening Brexit then there is no reason why those sorts of seats should not turn back to him.
    You just know though that during an election campaign, you'll get various Labour MPs shooting their mouths off about reopening Brexit and the Mail and Sun will have a field day.
    So you deal with it. Every campaign has its hiccups and I would not be so sure that on current headlines Johnson will be able to rely on either the Mail or the Sun.
    Oh he'll be gone.

    Boris is done. It's just a matter of when IMO.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨 Labour takes a NINE pint lead in the latest @OpiniumResearch poll for @ObserverUK 🚨

    CON 32
    LAB 41
    LD 9
    Green 5
    SNP 5

    *It is the biggest lead, from Opinium, since March 2014*

    https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1469759064796246017

    @michaelsavage @OpiniumResearch @ObserverUK 🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺

    SKS haters, please explain.
    Not a hater but here's my take

    Imagine a tower block like the one in the Towering Inferno

    There's a penthouse suite on the 150th floor where a bloke, let's call him Jackson, is doing coke and knobbing birds and generally being King of the World, and there's a small accountancy business on the 6th floor where a dreary balding bloke, call him Keith, is keeping up his chargeable hours. Now imagine Jackson falls off the balcony and splats on the street. Suddenly Keith is a neck breaking height above Jackson, just by virtue of where he is. Doesn't need to get in the lift, no reason to think he even knows how the lift works.

    All hunky-dory, save for the fire on the fifth floor?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    Two critical questions. Has Boris trashing his own brand and that of the government come too early for Labour? Is there a face-saving way of getting him out or would the Tories do better to remove him "with prejudice"?

    Removing him tomorrow might give them time to recover.

    OTOH the economic prospects for the next two years are very grim - hard to see an alternative Tory turning it around.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Stereodog said:

    Held off commenting until now but here are my reflections as a Civil Servant on the myriad party stories. Whatever the press says about public sector staff WFH, a significant group at the centre worked long hours in the office throughout the pandemic in order to keep the lights on. I have some sympathy for the slippery line between blowing off some steam as a team and holding a full blown party. Doubtless some teams got it wrong and a swift apology would be appropriate. I'm also conflicted because it would have been quite easy for Boris to sell out his staff once the story blew up. However, the reflexive denial and the arrogant belief that even the most ridiculous statement can become true if repeated enough is hard to understand. If Boris had taken responsibility for his staff and apologised then this story could have been put to bed quickly with the appropriate lessons learnt

    I would point out that teachers had longer hours and more intense pressures, and no prospect of working from home even in actual lockdown in many cases.

    We didn't have Christmas parties. In fact, on the last day of term I spent an hour alone tidying the last classroom I'd taught in before going home.

    Nor so far as I know did doctors or nurses, under far more intense pressure, have parties.

    I am afraid that if that is the best defence the CS can come up with, they're comprehensively fucked and will be lucky if only sackings result.
    It’s not defensible, agreed - but had they fessed up, apologies been issued, disciplinaries, etc at the beginning of the year, they’d probably have got away with it.
    Determinedly pretending it didn’t happen for so long will sink this administration. It’s taking the piss twice over.
    Not the CS; Johnson's political staff, just saying
    Same comments apply, though.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    Stereodog said:

    Held off commenting until now but here are my reflections as a Civil Servant on the myriad party stories. Whatever the press says about public sector staff WFH, a significant group at the centre worked long hours in the office throughout the pandemic in order to keep the lights on. I have some sympathy for the slippery line between blowing off some steam as a team and holding a full blown party. Doubtless some teams got it wrong and a swift apology would be appropriate. I'm also conflicted because it would have been quite easy for Boris to sell out his staff once the story blew up. However, the reflexive denial and the arrogant belief that even the most ridiculous statement can become true if repeated enough is hard to understand. If Boris had taken responsibility for his staff and apologised then this story could have been put to bed quickly with the appropriate lessons learnt

    The issue with that is that there were millions of people working long hours in the office or factory floor or hospital and they were not able to say, sod it lets have a few drinks because we deserve them. Yes they may have deserved them but they chose to follow the guidance and forego them. Civil Servants are no different to many millions of other essential workers who cannot work from home no matter what the risk.
    I agree but we might have to be a bit pragmatic about investigating this. Would sacking the entire senior civil service in Whitehall with immediate effect be a good idea?
    Judging by the past two years (if not longer) I'll say 'hell yes.'
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    One thing I note, Boris' new baby barely moved the news cycle. Not that it should, it's a private matter. But these things normally do a bit more than the news did.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    Scott_xP said:
    Nope, that was a few weeks ago.
  • Scott_xP said:
    Yes. Perhaps the end of the beginning of the end.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496
    Scott_xP said:

    That's a reasonable question. Which of the likely frontrunners would lose their seats on these numbers and UNS?

    Hunt is out on an 8% swing to LD. Raab is out on any sort of swing to LDs.
  • Pulpstar said:

    One thing I note, Boris' new baby barely moved the news cycle. Not that it should, it's a private matter. But these things normally do a bit more than the news did.

    Partly the other news, partly its not news when you have....7....8.....9 kids...
  • Don't do the crime, if you're on the government dime.

    For UKers - Don't do the offense, if you're taking the Queen's pence.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Stereodog said:

    Held off commenting until now but here are my reflections as a Civil Servant on the myriad party stories. Whatever the press says about public sector staff WFH, a significant group at the centre worked long hours in the office throughout the pandemic in order to keep the lights on. I have some sympathy for the slippery line between blowing off some steam as a team and holding a full blown party. Doubtless some teams got it wrong and a swift apology would be appropriate. I'm also conflicted because it would have been quite easy for Boris to sell out his staff once the story blew up. However, the reflexive denial and the arrogant belief that even the most ridiculous statement can become true if repeated enough is hard to understand. If Boris had taken responsibility for his staff and apologised then this story could have been put to bed quickly with the appropriate lessons learnt

    That’s the point, though, isn’t it? The party story has salience in large part as an exemplar for his faults that were always there.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    xxxxx5 said:

    Can someone explain to me how Sir Keir wins the next election? I get Boris is in big trouble, but can anyone really see Sir Keir taking seats like Mansfield, Bassetlaw and Ashfield all Tory Leave seats with large majorities for leave. The Tories also have the boundary changes to push through. I still cannot see a Labour majority. But I could be wrong.

    He says that Brexit is settled, that there are now far more important matters to be addressed and that Johnson, whatever his past triumphs, is clearly not now fit to be PM.

    It is the first of these that is key. If Starmer can make a believable case for not reopening Brexit then there is no reason why those sorts of seats should not turn back to him.
    You just know though that during an election campaign, you'll get various Labour MPs shooting their mouths off about reopening Brexit and the Mail and Sun will have a field day.
    So you deal with it. Every campaign has its hiccups and I would not be so sure that on current headlines Johnson will be able to rely on either the Mail or the Sun.
    Oh he'll be gone.

    Boris is done. It's just a matter of when IMO.
    All politicians leave at some point. Even Mao and Stalin did. EvenCastro.

    So your post is literally true and yet not especially precise.

    I personally still think it hinges on Oswestry. If he loses an unnecessary by-election in a safe seat held for 115 years...
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375
    edited December 2021
    darkage said:

    xxxxx5 said:

    Are we heading then for a 1992 result or a 2010 in reverse? I still think it's going to be difficult for Labour to form the next government but not impossible.

    Once you start looking at the constituency by constituency situation, from the perspective of the labour party the mountain to climb is huge, almost insurmountable. All the problems that existed before (the impossibility of reconciling the interests of its metropolitan radical supporters and its traditional declining base) still exist. One of the problems is that, despite his popular appeal as a sensible and serious chap; Starmer doesn't actually have an answer to these existential problems.
    The changes to the Shadow Cabinet are partly an answer to that. Don't underestimate them. It's not particularly 'woke', for one thing (I don't think you like wokeness). But more importantly, it's full of people who are not 'metropolitan radical supporters', but northern MPs.

    Reeves, Philipson, Rayner, Cooper, Nandy, Miliband, Powell, for example. They are all in a position, both geographically and politically, to appeal to the traditional Labour base as well as its urban supporters.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,494

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨NEW POLL🚨

    The latest @ObserverUK poll gives Labour the largest lead we have seen in any @OpiniumResearch poll since February 2014.

    Con 32% (-4)
    Lab 41% (+3)
    Lib Dem 9% (+1)
    Green 5% (-1)

    Changes on the 24 – 26 November. https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1469759095523753986/photo/1

    Very close to @HYUFD ‘s arbitrary pulled out of his ass 10% bedwetting threshold
    I read it as obituary 🤭
  • GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    xxxxx5 said:

    Can someone explain to me how Sir Keir wins the next election? I get Boris is in big trouble, but can anyone really see Sir Keir taking seats like Mansfield, Bassetlaw and Ashfield all Tory Leave seats with large majorities for leave. The Tories also have the boundary changes to push through. I still cannot see a Labour majority. But I could be wrong.

    He says that Brexit is settled, that there are now far more important matters to be addressed and that Johnson, whatever his past triumphs, is clearly not now fit to be PM.

    It is the first of these that is key. If Starmer can make a believable case for not reopening Brexit then there is no reason why those sorts of seats should not turn back to him.
    You just know though that during an election campaign, you'll get various Labour MPs shooting their mouths off about reopening Brexit and the Mail and Sun will have a field day.
    So you deal with it. Every campaign has its hiccups and I would not be so sure that on current headlines Johnson will be able to rely on either the Mail or the Sun.
    Oh he'll be gone.

    Boris is done. It's just a matter of when IMO.
    In Titanic terms, it's already hit the iceberg. It'll sail on for a bit, the orchestra will play, they might rearrange the deckchairs a couple of times. But it's made of iron, and it will sink.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited December 2021
    MaxPB said:

    32% must be pretty close to the Tory floor under Boris

    No, I think it can go a bit lower. Boris has pushed out a lot of normally loyal voters like myself, TSE, Philip Thompson etc... and now he's losing his new voters too. The core vote has been shat on.
    HYUFD loves to exult in being the Only Tory in the Village and his purity in voting Tory even when Blair was PM.

    Well if the next election the Tories get the vote of HYUFD but not any of the votes of you, TSE and myself or Big G, Casino, Robert, Richard and many more too it seems then if that happens the Tories will clearly be losing office.

    You don't get to spit at your supporters and tell them it's raining.
  • Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    More reason for cautious optimism

    "Quick update on Covid hospitalizations/deaths in South Africa.

    "Last week's admissions are ~3,700. This week's are already over 4,200 and will be revised up to over 6,000, at least.

    "Deaths last week stand at 104, almost double previous week, and this week has seen 140 so far."

    https://twitter.com/BarclayBenedict/status/1469724928199073802?s=20

    Which sounds bad, but...

    "The number of deaths will be revised up, particularly for the current week, so will probably double again to 200-250. For now, these are still very low levels compared with previous waves, but not negligible by any means."

    VERY LOW LEVELS

    Your not suggesting that the UK modellers 75k deaths in next 4 months might prove to be way out?
    On past form 7.5 deaths would be closer.

    (The .5 being another SeanT identity biting the dust...)
    My model is proving perfectly accurate so far.
    Is it HO gauge? That's more accurate than OO gauge :lol:
    That's furrin, will upset too many people here.

    Protofour is really what the discerning rivet counter wants for GB (Ireland does not count, different gauge AIUI, but it's been written off Brexit wise anyway).
    HO is accurate for body-shell and track gauge (both 1:87), but stupid OO gauge has 1:76 body-shell gauge with 1:87 track gauge.
  • Don't do the crime, if you're on the government dime.

    For UKers - Don't do the offense, if you're taking the Queen's pence.

    For lazy bastards - Don't do the washing up if you want it to pile up
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    xxxxx5 said:

    Can someone explain to me how Sir Keir wins the next election? I get Boris is in big trouble, but can anyone really see Sir Keir taking seats like Mansfield, Bassetlaw and Ashfield all Tory Leave seats with large majorities for leave. The Tories also have the boundary changes to push through. I still cannot see a Labour majority. But I could be wrong.

    He says that Brexit is settled, that there are now far more important matters to be addressed and that Johnson, whatever his past triumphs, is clearly not now fit to be PM.

    It is the first of these that is key. If Starmer can make a believable case for not reopening Brexit then there is no reason why those sorts of seats should not turn back to him.
    You just know though that during an election campaign, you'll get various Labour MPs shooting their mouths off about reopening Brexit and the Mail and Sun will have a field day.
    So you deal with it. Every campaign has its hiccups and I would not be so sure that on current headlines Johnson will be able to rely on either the Mail or the Sun.
    Oh he'll be gone.

    Boris is done. It's just a matter of when IMO.
    In Titanic terms, it's already hit the iceberg. It'll sail on for a bit, the orchestra will play, they might rearrange the deckchairs a couple of times. But it's made of iron, and it will sink.
    PB pedantry: steel.
  • xxxxx5xxxxx5 Posts: 38

    xxxxx5 said:

    Are we heading then for a 1992 result or a 2010 in reverse? I still think it's going to be difficult for Labour to form the next government but not impossible.


    We're heading for another two years when anything could happen. The past is of little use in predicting political futures.
    Surely the swing required to put Labour into office is too big? I remember the years between 1992 and 1997 where ever you went from Milton Keynes to Bristol to Birmingham people were fed up with the Tories and were enthusiastic for Tony Blair. Seeing though we have had almost a Civil War between remain and Brexit - I just cannot see (again I maybe wrong) the voter in Hartlepool, Ashfield or Blyth coming out to vote for the same side as a Sir Keir, Alistair Campbell or Anna Soubry - I'd be surprised if Soubry like Bercow doesn't voice her support for a Sir Keir lead government. Those ex Labour voters in former industrial towns are not going to vote for a party committed to either free movement or making it safer for Asylum seekers to cross the channel. I get the government is becoming unpopular but I just don't see the unity across the country (yet) that I seen in 1997 and 2010.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    Be interesting to see if there's any new One Rule for Us material in the Sundays...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    algarkirk said:

    Scott_xP said:

    That's a reasonable question. Which of the likely frontrunners would lose their seats on these numbers and UNS?

    Hunt is out on an 8% swing to LD. Raab is out on any sort of swing to LDs.
    And Raab has his own issues of serial incompetence.
    Majority under 3000….

    Hunt will probably be OK.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496

    darkage said:

    xxxxx5 said:

    Are we heading then for a 1992 result or a 2010 in reverse? I still think it's going to be difficult for Labour to form the next government but not impossible.

    Once you start looking at the constituency by constituency situation, from the perspective of the labour party the mountain to climb is huge, almost insurmountable. All the problems that existed before (the impossibility of reconciling the interests of its metropolitan radical supporters and its traditional declining base) still exist. One of the problems is that, despite his popular appeal as a sensible and serious chap; Starmer doesn't actually have an answer to these existential problems.
    The changes to the Shadow Cabinet are partly an answer to that. Don't underestimate them. It's not particularly 'woke', for one thing (I don't think you like wokeness). But more importantly, it's full of people who are not 'metropolitan radical supporters', but northern MPs.

    Reeves, Philipson, Rayner, Cooper, Nandy, Miliband, Powell, for example. They are all in a position, both geographically and politically, to appeal to the traditional Labour base as well as its urban supporters.
    IMHO the situation is as before with regard to Labour winning outright (326 seats). They can't. But they have a nearly 50% chance of leading the next government.

  • Pulpstar said:

    One thing I note, Boris' new baby barely moved the news cycle. Not that it should, it's a private matter. But these things normally do a bit more than the news did.

    I think that's just the law of diminishing returns .A law not even he can break
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    IanB2 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨 Labour takes a NINE pint lead in the latest @OpiniumResearch poll for @ObserverUK 🚨

    CON 32
    LAB 41
    LD 9
    Green 5
    SNP 5

    *It is the biggest lead, from Opinium, since March 2014*

    https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1469759064796246017

    @michaelsavage @OpiniumResearch @ObserverUK 🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺

    SKS haters, please explain.
    Not a hater but here's my take

    Imagine a tower block like the one in the Towering Inferno

    There's a penthouse suite on the 150th floor where a bloke, let's call him Jackson, is doing coke and knobbing birds and generally being King of the World, and there's a small accountancy business on the 6th floor where a dreary balding bloke, call him Keith, is keeping up his chargeable hours. Now imagine Jackson falls off the balcony and splats on the street. Suddenly Keith is a neck breaking height above Jackson, just by virtue of where he is. Doesn't need to get in the lift, no reason to think he even knows how the lift works.

    All hunky-dory, save for the fire on the fifth floor?
    Doesn't matter. Height above ground level is the metric, as far as GE 2022/3/4 is concerned
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    More reason for cautious optimism

    "Quick update on Covid hospitalizations/deaths in South Africa.

    "Last week's admissions are ~3,700. This week's are already over 4,200 and will be revised up to over 6,000, at least.

    "Deaths last week stand at 104, almost double previous week, and this week has seen 140 so far."

    https://twitter.com/BarclayBenedict/status/1469724928199073802?s=20

    Which sounds bad, but...

    "The number of deaths will be revised up, particularly for the current week, so will probably double again to 200-250. For now, these are still very low levels compared with previous waves, but not negligible by any means."

    VERY LOW LEVELS

    Your not suggesting that the UK modellers 75k deaths in next 4 months might prove to be way out?
    On past form 7.5 deaths would be closer.

    (The .5 being another SeanT identity biting the dust...)
    My model is proving perfectly accurate so far.
    Is it HO gauge? That's more accurate than OO gauge :lol:
    That's furrin, will upset too many people here.

    Protofour is really what the discerning rivet counter wants for GB (Ireland does not count, different gauge AIUI, but it's been written off Brexit wise anyway).
    HO is accurate for body-shell and track gauge (both 1:87), but stupid OO gauge has 1:76 body-shell gauge with 1:87 track gauge.
    Exactly, which is the point of Protofour which is true 1:76.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    ydoethur said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    xxxxx5 said:

    Can someone explain to me how Sir Keir wins the next election? I get Boris is in big trouble, but can anyone really see Sir Keir taking seats like Mansfield, Bassetlaw and Ashfield all Tory Leave seats with large majorities for leave. The Tories also have the boundary changes to push through. I still cannot see a Labour majority. But I could be wrong.

    He says that Brexit is settled, that there are now far more important matters to be addressed and that Johnson, whatever his past triumphs, is clearly not now fit to be PM.

    It is the first of these that is key. If Starmer can make a believable case for not reopening Brexit then there is no reason why those sorts of seats should not turn back to him.
    You just know though that during an election campaign, you'll get various Labour MPs shooting their mouths off about reopening Brexit and the Mail and Sun will have a field day.
    So you deal with it. Every campaign has its hiccups and I would not be so sure that on current headlines Johnson will be able to rely on either the Mail or the Sun.
    Oh he'll be gone.

    Boris is done. It's just a matter of when IMO.
    All politicians leave at some point. Even Mao and Stalin did. EvenCastro.

    So your post is literally true and yet not especially precise.

    I personally still think it hinges on Oswestry. If he loses an unnecessary by-election in a safe seat held for 115 years...
    Nah, I exepct the Tories will probably hang on in N Shropshire (split LD/Lab vote) but @OnlyLivingBoy's analogy upthread is apt. Johnson has made a Titanic mess of being PM and the iceberg has already struck. Just a matter of time.
  • Surely the most worrying thing about Boris being forced out is that the Deputy PM is that berk Raab?

    Boris is inept, but Raab makes Boris look like genius.

    Lol - too true!

    Nice to see you again @Beibheirli_C 👍
    Thank you. I have a quiet night tonight and popped back for a bit of a Xmas session.
    I miss your perceptive contributions, please don't stay away so long next time ;-)
    I had a lot to do and I just had no time to spare. I have not really finished so this may be a fleeting visit depending on what happens over the next few days and weeks. We will see...

    Having done a bit of reading upthread, it seems that not much has changed around here.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    Two critical questions. Has Boris trashing his own brand and that of the government come too early for Labour? Is there a face-saving way of getting him out or would the Tories do better to remove him "with prejudice"?

    On balance Starmer has probably done better as a result of casting Corbyn into the outer darkness than he would have done by pursuing party unity. Similarly Johnson’s successor might decide that complete repudiation of the Borisonian Nightmare is the best chance of having an excuse for the state of the country going into the next election (“yes we know it’s a disaster, but we are fixing the damage done by a rogue actor who is nothing to do with our party”).
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    Pulpstar said:

    One thing I note, Boris' new baby barely moved the news cycle. Not that it should, it's a private matter. But these things normally do a bit more than the news did.

    I was thinking that. When Tony (or Cherie technically) had Leo it was a major news event. I suppose with Boris it seems like no big deal.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375
    edited December 2021
    GIN1138 said:

    xxxxx5 said:

    Can someone explain to me how Sir Keir wins the next election? I get Boris is in big trouble, but can anyone really see Sir Keir taking seats like Mansfield, Bassetlaw and Ashfield all Tory Leave seats with large majorities for leave. The Tories also have the boundary changes to push through. I still cannot see a Labour majority. But I could be wrong.

    He says that Brexit is settled, that there are now far more important matters to be addressed and that Johnson, whatever his past triumphs, is clearly not now fit to be PM.

    It is the first of these that is key. If Starmer can make a believable case for not reopening Brexit then there is no reason why those sorts of seats should not turn back to him.
    You just know though that during an election campaign, you'll get various Labour MPs shooting their mouths off about reopening Brexit and the Mail and Sun will have a field day.
    I don't think that will happen for a moment. Starmer will ban 'rejoin' and tell the troops not to mention Brexit (he already has). Internal discipline in the Labour Party is pretty good at the moment, and it will be even better in a GE campaign if there is a chance of defeating the Tories.
  • Carnyx said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    xxxxx5 said:

    Can someone explain to me how Sir Keir wins the next election? I get Boris is in big trouble, but can anyone really see Sir Keir taking seats like Mansfield, Bassetlaw and Ashfield all Tory Leave seats with large majorities for leave. The Tories also have the boundary changes to push through. I still cannot see a Labour majority. But I could be wrong.

    He says that Brexit is settled, that there are now far more important matters to be addressed and that Johnson, whatever his past triumphs, is clearly not now fit to be PM.

    It is the first of these that is key. If Starmer can make a believable case for not reopening Brexit then there is no reason why those sorts of seats should not turn back to him.
    You just know though that during an election campaign, you'll get various Labour MPs shooting their mouths off about reopening Brexit and the Mail and Sun will have a field day.
    So you deal with it. Every campaign has its hiccups and I would not be so sure that on current headlines Johnson will be able to rely on either the Mail or the Sun.
    Oh he'll be gone.

    Boris is done. It's just a matter of when IMO.
    In Titanic terms, it's already hit the iceberg. It'll sail on for a bit, the orchestra will play, they might rearrange the deckchairs a couple of times. But it's made of iron, and it will sink.
    PB pedantry: steel.
    I think they said iron in the film!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    edited December 2021

    Don't do the crime, if you're on the government dime.

    For UKers - Don't do the offense, if you're taking the Queen's pence.

    No offence but it's 'offence' over here ;-)

    Edit: Your point is a very good one not deserving of my pedantry.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    edited December 2021

    Carnyx said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    xxxxx5 said:

    Can someone explain to me how Sir Keir wins the next election? I get Boris is in big trouble, but can anyone really see Sir Keir taking seats like Mansfield, Bassetlaw and Ashfield all Tory Leave seats with large majorities for leave. The Tories also have the boundary changes to push through. I still cannot see a Labour majority. But I could be wrong.

    He says that Brexit is settled, that there are now far more important matters to be addressed and that Johnson, whatever his past triumphs, is clearly not now fit to be PM.

    It is the first of these that is key. If Starmer can make a believable case for not reopening Brexit then there is no reason why those sorts of seats should not turn back to him.
    You just know though that during an election campaign, you'll get various Labour MPs shooting their mouths off about reopening Brexit and the Mail and Sun will have a field day.
    So you deal with it. Every campaign has its hiccups and I would not be so sure that on current headlines Johnson will be able to rely on either the Mail or the Sun.
    Oh he'll be gone.

    Boris is done. It's just a matter of when IMO.
    In Titanic terms, it's already hit the iceberg. It'll sail on for a bit, the orchestra will play, they might rearrange the deckchairs a couple of times. But it's made of iron, and it will sink.
    PB pedantry: steel.
    I think they said iron in the film!
    Well, Hollywood ...

    On checking (PB does that to one), it was steel plating but a mix of steel and wrought iron rivets. So, yes, mostly made of steel rather than iron. But (a) steel is a carbon-iron alloy, tbf and (b) the latter WI rivets were arguably dodgy.

    https://www.materialstoday.com/metals-alloys/news/what-really-sank-the-titanic/
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    edited December 2021
    Tomorrow’s front page https://twitter.com/ObserverUK/status/1469776593866342402/photo/1

    EDIT: He really does look like shit in that photo
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    Carnyx said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    xxxxx5 said:

    Can someone explain to me how Sir Keir wins the next election? I get Boris is in big trouble, but can anyone really see Sir Keir taking seats like Mansfield, Bassetlaw and Ashfield all Tory Leave seats with large majorities for leave. The Tories also have the boundary changes to push through. I still cannot see a Labour majority. But I could be wrong.

    He says that Brexit is settled, that there are now far more important matters to be addressed and that Johnson, whatever his past triumphs, is clearly not now fit to be PM.

    It is the first of these that is key. If Starmer can make a believable case for not reopening Brexit then there is no reason why those sorts of seats should not turn back to him.
    You just know though that during an election campaign, you'll get various Labour MPs shooting their mouths off about reopening Brexit and the Mail and Sun will have a field day.
    So you deal with it. Every campaign has its hiccups and I would not be so sure that on current headlines Johnson will be able to rely on either the Mail or the Sun.
    Oh he'll be gone.

    Boris is done. It's just a matter of when IMO.
    In Titanic terms, it's already hit the iceberg. It'll sail on for a bit, the orchestra will play, they might rearrange the deckchairs a couple of times. But it's made of iron, and it will sink.
    PB pedantry: steel.
    I think they said iron in the film!
    One of the many ways it was grossly anachronistic.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    xxxxx5 said:

    xxxxx5 said:

    Are we heading then for a 1992 result or a 2010 in reverse? I still think it's going to be difficult for Labour to form the next government but not impossible.


    We're heading for another two years when anything could happen. The past is of little use in predicting political futures.
    Surely the swing required to put Labour into office is too big? I remember the years between 1992 and 1997 where ever you went from Milton Keynes to Bristol to Birmingham people were fed up with the Tories and were enthusiastic for Tony Blair. Seeing though we have had almost a Civil War between remain and Brexit - I just cannot see (again I maybe wrong) the voter in Hartlepool, Ashfield or Blyth coming out to vote for the same side as a Sir Keir, Alistair Campbell or Anna Soubry - I'd be surprised if Soubry like Bercow doesn't voice her support for a Sir Keir lead government. Those ex Labour voters in former industrial towns are not going to vote for a party committed to either free movement or making it safer for Asylum seekers to cross the channel. I get the government is becoming unpopular but I just don't see the unity across the country (yet) that I seen in 1997 and 2010.
    Blyth is highly marginal and though the GE result was a bit sui generis in 2019, Labour did win Hartlepool.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    I think the last time the Lib Dem overtook Labour in a Tory by-election* was in 1985 in Brecon and Radnor:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1985_Brecon_and_Radnor_by-election

    But it was pretty tight between Labour and Lib Dems in 1985, and Labour still came second with the Tories relegated to third. I wonder if the Tories could come third in North Shropshire? That would surely do for Johnson.

    * with the Tories in power - there was Bromley and Chislehurst in 2006 when the Lib Dems (and Ukip!) overtook Labour:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Bromley_and_Chislehurst_by-election
  • Pulpstar said:

    One thing I note, Boris' new baby barely moved the news cycle. Not that it should, it's a private matter. But these things normally do a bit more than the news did.

    I was thinking that. When Tony (or Cherie technically) had Leo it was a major news event. I suppose with Boris it seems like no big deal.
    With the Blairs it was the first (legitimate) child born to a sitting PM in 150 years.

    Now we've had four kids to PMs in 21 years, it has lost its magic.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨NEW POLL🚨

    The latest @ObserverUK poll gives Labour the largest lead we have seen in any @OpiniumResearch poll since February 2014.

    Con 32% (-4)
    Lab 41% (+3)
    Lib Dem 9% (+1)
    Green 5% (-1)

    Changes on the 24 – 26 November. https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1469759095523753986/photo/1

    Very close to @HYUFD ‘s arbitrary pulled out of his ass 10% bedwetting threshold
    Just imagine how larger the Labour lead would be if Starmer hadn't slagged off Peppa Pig World.

    Labour would be 30% ahead.
    I think you might just be telling porkies there, Mr Eagles.
    I'm a very devout muslim, pork never passes my lips.
    Just trying to Peppa things up with an awesome pun, Mr Eagles. I didn't intend to do you har(a)m.
    I'm more focussed on harems than harams.

    I'm as devout as I am working class or modest.
    Sounds like you have a eunuch perspective on events.
    You two need to kiss and Mecca up.
  • algarkirk said:

    darkage said:

    xxxxx5 said:

    Are we heading then for a 1992 result or a 2010 in reverse? I still think it's going to be difficult for Labour to form the next government but not impossible.

    Once you start looking at the constituency by constituency situation, from the perspective of the labour party the mountain to climb is huge, almost insurmountable. All the problems that existed before (the impossibility of reconciling the interests of its metropolitan radical supporters and its traditional declining base) still exist. One of the problems is that, despite his popular appeal as a sensible and serious chap; Starmer doesn't actually have an answer to these existential problems.
    The changes to the Shadow Cabinet are partly an answer to that. Don't underestimate them. It's not particularly 'woke', for one thing (I don't think you like wokeness). But more importantly, it's full of people who are not 'metropolitan radical supporters', but northern MPs.

    Reeves, Philipson, Rayner, Cooper, Nandy, Miliband, Powell, for example. They are all in a position, both geographically and politically, to appeal to the traditional Labour base as well as its urban supporters.
    IMHO the situation is as before with regard to Labour winning outright (326 seats). They can't. But they have a nearly 50% chance of leading the next government.

    They can. Never say never.

    The swing required to overturn the Tory majority is so massive that if such a large swing happens, then an overcorrection is possible making a Labour majority possible.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    IanB2 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨 Labour takes a NINE pint lead in the latest @OpiniumResearch poll for @ObserverUK 🚨

    CON 32
    LAB 41
    LD 9
    Green 5
    SNP 5

    *It is the biggest lead, from Opinium, since March 2014*

    https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1469759064796246017

    @michaelsavage @OpiniumResearch @ObserverUK 🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺

    SKS haters, please explain.
    Not a hater but here's my take

    Imagine a tower block like the one in the Towering Inferno

    There's a penthouse suite on the 150th floor where a bloke, let's call him Jackson, is doing coke and knobbing birds and generally being King of the World, and there's a small accountancy business on the 6th floor where a dreary balding bloke, call him Keith, is keeping up his chargeable hours. Now imagine Jackson falls off the balcony and splats on the street. Suddenly Keith is a neck breaking height above Jackson, just by virtue of where he is. Doesn't need to get in the lift, no reason to think he even knows how the lift works.

    All hunky-dory, save for the fire on the fifth floor?
    Doesn't matter. Height above ground level is the metric, as far as GE 2022/3/4 is concerned
    I gotta say thats way out there as a top explanation . You might call me a f----g c***T Tw--t anarchist but I will still vote for your Towering inferno analogy as the most imaginative and way out there analogy tonight (and I know Leon)
  • ydoethur said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    xxxxx5 said:

    Can someone explain to me how Sir Keir wins the next election? I get Boris is in big trouble, but can anyone really see Sir Keir taking seats like Mansfield, Bassetlaw and Ashfield all Tory Leave seats with large majorities for leave. The Tories also have the boundary changes to push through. I still cannot see a Labour majority. But I could be wrong.

    He says that Brexit is settled, that there are now far more important matters to be addressed and that Johnson, whatever his past triumphs, is clearly not now fit to be PM.

    It is the first of these that is key. If Starmer can make a believable case for not reopening Brexit then there is no reason why those sorts of seats should not turn back to him.
    You just know though that during an election campaign, you'll get various Labour MPs shooting their mouths off about reopening Brexit and the Mail and Sun will have a field day.
    So you deal with it. Every campaign has its hiccups and I would not be so sure that on current headlines Johnson will be able to rely on either the Mail or the Sun.
    Oh he'll be gone.

    Boris is done. It's just a matter of when IMO.
    All politicians leave at some point. Even Mao and Stalin did. EvenCastro.

    So your post is literally true and yet not especially precise.

    I personally still think it hinges on Oswestry. If he loses an unnecessary by-election in a safe seat held for 115 years...
    Fingers crossed
This discussion has been closed.