Imagine a tower block like the one in the Towering Inferno
There's a penthouse suite on the 150th floor where a bloke, let's call him Jackson, is doing coke and knobbing birds and generally being King of the World, and there's a small accountancy business on the 6th floor where a dreary balding bloke, call him Keith, is keeping up his chargeable hours. Now imagine Jackson falls off the balcony and splats on the street. Suddenly Keith is a neck breaking height above Jackson, just by virtue of where he is. Doesn't need to get in the lift, no reason to think he even knows how the lift works.
I don't see how Boris lasts until the next election. Which is a shame as he would be very easily beatable.
It's possible, albeit unlikely. Roughly, the Conservatives need to go from complacency (midterm blues, Boris will fix it, swingback) to despair (we're doomed, who wants to be a one year fagend PM, better to rebuild from opposition... think Conservatives in 1996) with no intermediate state.
Would Boris be willing to endure that? I don't know, and I doubt he does either.
But whilst some of this is probably froth, there's a sicky taste at the back of voter's mouths now, and that's not going away completely.
Given that Johnson's goose is surely cooked, what are your preferred picks (in order of preference) for replacement and hence next PM? I don't mean at the odds, I mean which would you prefer the most (or hate the least)?
I'm going: 1) Hunt, 2) Sunak, 3) Mordaunt
If I were a Tory and wanted them to win I'd agree with you.
As I'm not a Tory and want them to lose I'm going: 1) Rees-Mogg, 2) Patel, 3) Truss.
Can someone explain to me how Sir Keir wins the next election? I get Boris is in big trouble, but can anyone really see Sir Keir taking seats like Mansfield, Bassetlaw and Ashfield all Tory Leave seats with large majorities for leave. The Tories also have the boundary changes to push through. I still cannot see a Labour majority. But I could be wrong.
I can see him gaining 40 seats like Kinnock quite straightforwardly although beyond that I'm not sure, although he only arguably needs the Tories to lose about 60 seats to become PM. The Tories are also likely to lose at least 10 seats or so to the LDs even though I'm even more cautious on their prospects. Tories also likely to lose a couple more seats to the SNP.
32% must be pretty close to the Tory floor under Boris
No, I think it can go a bit lower. Boris has pushed out a lot of normally loyal voters like myself, TSE, Philip Thompson etc... and now he's losing his new voters too. The core vote has been shat on.
Given that Johnson's goose is surely cooked, what are your preferred picks (in order of preference) for replacement and hence next PM? I don't mean at the odds, I mean which would you prefer the most (or hate the least)?
I'm going: 1) Hunt, 2) Sunak, 3) Mordaunt
If I were a Tory and wanted them to win I'd agree with you.
As I'm not a Tory and want them to lose I'm going: 1) Rees-Mogg, 2) Patel, 3) Truss.
I'm not aTory, but no way on God's green earth do I want any of those three as PM even for a nanosecond.
There's partisanship and there's nihilism, and your post heads towards the latter.
Can someone explain to me how Sir Keir wins the next election? I get Boris is in big trouble, but can anyone really see Sir Keir taking seats like Mansfield, Bassetlaw and Ashfield all Tory Leave seats with large majorities for leave. The Tories also have the boundary changes to push through. I still cannot see a Labour majority. But I could be wrong.
Final train of the day. 20 mins or so. It's rammed. Am in the vestibule with 5 others. We are all masked. So there is another reason why my FFP2 mask is required
so let me get this straight - you know your wife is covid positive and you get on a rammed train? Now even I dont do that. I think you are a classic case of thinking a mask will solve everything so you can go on that train
Imagine a tower block like the one in the Towering Inferno
There's a penthouse suite on the 150th floor where a bloke, let's call him Jackson, is doing coke and knobbing birds and generally being King of the World, and there's a small accountancy business on the 6th floor where a dreary balding bloke, call him Keith, is keeping up his chargeable hours. Now imagine Jackson falls off the balcony and splats on the street. Suddenly Keith is a neck breaking height above Jackson, just by virtue of where he is. Doesn't need to get in the lift, no reason to think he even knows how the lift works.
weird
I wasn't talking to you, and I strongly suggest you f off to a forum where your one trick oh look at me I'm a fucking anarchist shtick attracts something other than contemptuous derision.
Held off commenting until now but here are my reflections as a Civil Servant on the myriad party stories. Whatever the press says about public sector staff WFH, a significant group at the centre worked long hours in the office throughout the pandemic in order to keep the lights on. I have some sympathy for the slippery line between blowing off some steam as a team and holding a full blown party. Doubtless some teams got it wrong and a swift apology would be appropriate. I'm also conflicted because it would have been quite easy for Boris to sell out his staff once the story blew up. However, the reflexive denial and the arrogant belief that even the most ridiculous statement can become true if repeated enough is hard to understand. If Boris had taken responsibility for his staff and apologised then this story could have been put to bed quickly with the appropriate lessons learnt
Final train of the day. 20 mins or so. It's rammed. Am in the vestibule with 5 others. We are all masked. So there is another reason why my FFP2 mask is required
so let me get this straight - you know your wife is covid positive and you get on a rammed train? Now even I dont do that. I think you are a classic case of thinking a mask will solve everything so you can go on that train
Held off commenting until now but here are my reflections as a Civil Servant on the myriad party stories. Whatever the press says about public sector staff WFH, a significant group at the centre worked long hours in the office throughout the pandemic in order to keep the lights on. I have some sympathy for the slippery line between blowing off some steam as a team and holding a full blown party. Doubtless some teams got it wrong and a swift apology would be appropriate. I'm also conflicted because it would have been quite easy for Boris to sell out his staff once the story blew up. However, the reflexive denial and the arrogant belief that even the most ridiculous statement can become true if repeated enough is hard to understand. If Boris had taken responsibility for his staff and apologised then this story could have been put to bed quickly with the appropriate lessons learnt
The lesson is dont make rules if you cannot keep them yourself or yourselves .
Held off commenting until now but here are my reflections as a Civil Servant on the myriad party stories. Whatever the press says about public sector staff WFH, a significant group at the centre worked long hours in the office throughout the pandemic in order to keep the lights on. I have some sympathy for the slippery line between blowing off some steam as a team and holding a full blown party. Doubtless some teams got it wrong and a swift apology would be appropriate. I'm also conflicted because it would have been quite easy for Boris to sell out his staff once the story blew up. However, the reflexive denial and the arrogant belief that even the most ridiculous statement can become true if repeated enough is hard to understand. If Boris had taken responsibility for his staff and apologised then this story could have been put to bed quickly with the appropriate lessons learnt
I would point out that teachers had longer hours and more intense pressures, and no prospect of working from home even in actual lockdown in many cases.
We didn't have Christmas parties. In fact, on the last day of term I spent an hour alone tidying the last classroom I'd taught in before going home.
Nor so far as I know did doctors or nurses, under far more intense pressure, have parties.
I am afraid that if that is the best defence the CS can come up with, they're comprehensively fucked and will be lucky if only sackings result.
Imagine a tower block like the one in the Towering Inferno
There's a penthouse suite on the 150th floor where a bloke, let's call him Jackson, is doing coke and knobbing birds and generally being King of the World, and there's a small accountancy business on the 6th floor where a dreary balding bloke, call him Keith, is keeping up his chargeable hours. Now imagine Jackson falls off the balcony and splats on the street. Suddenly Keith is a neck breaking height above Jackson, just by virtue of where he is. Doesn't need to get in the lift, no reason to think he even knows how the lift works.
weird
I wasn't talking to you, and I strongly suggest you f off to a forum where your one trick oh look at me I'm a fucking anarchist shtick attracts something other than contemptuous derision.
I told you I am not going to do that and again, calm down, I actually thought your weird analogy was quite creative and admired the art of it! Anyway even if you think i am an anarchist why would you not want me on here - are we all supposed to think the same .Have I walked into a groupthink environment?
Can someone explain to me how Sir Keir wins the next election? I get Boris is in big trouble, but can anyone really see Sir Keir taking seats like Mansfield, Bassetlaw and Ashfield all Tory Leave seats with large majorities for leave. The Tories also have the boundary changes to push through. I still cannot see a Labour majority. But I could be wrong.
Targets 90, 159 and 200 ?
Starmer doesn't need any of them to become PM.
You've brought facts to a wishlist there Pulpstar.
Are we heading then for a 1992 result or a 2010 in reverse? I still think it's going to be difficult for Labour to form the next government but not impossible.
Held off commenting until now but here are my reflections as a Civil Servant on the myriad party stories. Whatever the press says about public sector staff WFH, a significant group at the centre worked long hours in the office throughout the pandemic in order to keep the lights on. I have some sympathy for the slippery line between blowing off some steam as a team and holding a full blown party. Doubtless some teams got it wrong and a swift apology would be appropriate. I'm also conflicted because it would have been quite easy for Boris to sell out his staff once the story blew up. However, the reflexive denial and the arrogant belief that even the most ridiculous statement can become true if repeated enough is hard to understand. If Boris had taken responsibility for his staff and apologised then this story could have been put to bed quickly with the appropriate lessons learnt
I would point out that teachers had longer hours and more intense pressures, and no prospect of working from home even in actual lockdown in many cases.
We didn't have Christmas parties. In fact, on the last day of term I spent an hour alone tidying the last classroom I'd taught in before going home.
Nor so far as I know did doctors or nurses, under far more intense pressure, have parties.
I am afraid that if that is the best defence the CS can come up with, they're comprehensively fucked and will be lucky if only sackings result.
Isn't it the case that the No10 parties were Boris's political staff - SPADs and the like - not civil servants, in the main?
Are we heading then for a 1992 result or a 2010 in reverse? I still think it's going to be difficult for Labour to form the next government but not impossible.
1992 is probably the most plausible result, although the precedent is an uncomfortable one for the Tories. If ever there was a cursed victory...
But a 2010 style reverse isn't impossible. Indeed, arguably it would be the best outcome given the damage it would do the SNP. Back Labour and get no second referendum anyway - or keep the Tories in office? Not a choice they would relish.
Held off commenting until now but here are my reflections as a Civil Servant on the myriad party stories. Whatever the press says about public sector staff WFH, a significant group at the centre worked long hours in the office throughout the pandemic in order to keep the lights on. I have some sympathy for the slippery line between blowing off some steam as a team and holding a full blown party. Doubtless some teams got it wrong and a swift apology would be appropriate. I'm also conflicted because it would have been quite easy for Boris to sell out his staff once the story blew up. However, the reflexive denial and the arrogant belief that even the most ridiculous statement can become true if repeated enough is hard to understand. If Boris had taken responsibility for his staff and apologised then this story could have been put to bed quickly with the appropriate lessons learnt
The lesson is dont make rules if you cannot keep them yourself or yourselves .
Firstly Civil Servants don't make the rules. Secondly I'm not saying it's right what happened I'm just saying I can see how it did.
Are we heading then for a 1992 result or a 2010 in reverse? I still think it's going to be difficult for Labour to form the next government but not impossible.
2010 in reverse.
More a case the Tories win the most seats in 2024 but they cannot function as minority government as they are too far away from 310 (where I think the Tories could function as a minority government) that a temporary rainbow coalition takes power for a while until a new election.
As David Cameron said, going into an election as PM gives you huge powers and advantages, something Starmer would have.
Are we heading then for a 1992 result or a 2010 in reverse? I still think it's going to be difficult for Labour to form the next government but not impossible.
92 if they change leader, 2010 reverse if they don't now imo.
Held off commenting until now but here are my reflections as a Civil Servant on the myriad party stories. Whatever the press says about public sector staff WFH, a significant group at the centre worked long hours in the office throughout the pandemic in order to keep the lights on. I have some sympathy for the slippery line between blowing off some steam as a team and holding a full blown party. Doubtless some teams got it wrong and a swift apology would be appropriate. I'm also conflicted because it would have been quite easy for Boris to sell out his staff once the story blew up. However, the reflexive denial and the arrogant belief that even the most ridiculous statement can become true if repeated enough is hard to understand. If Boris had taken responsibility for his staff and apologised then this story could have been put to bed quickly with the appropriate lessons learnt
I would point out that teachers had longer hours and more intense pressures, and no prospect of working from home even in actual lockdown in many cases.
We didn't have Christmas parties. In fact, on the last day of term I spent an hour alone tidying the last classroom I'd taught in before going home.
Nor so far as I know did doctors or nurses, under far more intense pressure, have parties.
I am afraid that if that is the best defence the CS can come up with, they're comprehensively fucked and will be lucky if only sackings result.
Isn't it the case that the No10 parties were Boris's political staff - SPADs and the like - not civil servants, in the main?
Fair point, although the line has become so blurred it's hard to tell now.
But the thrust still applies. Would anyone actually notice if all these SPADs had fecked off for 18 months? I would argue not given how poor most of their advice is.
Yet if they really think they are indispensable and deserve to blow off steam when those of us working hard in dangerous conditions didn't, they're in deep shit.
Held off commenting until now but here are my reflections as a Civil Servant on the myriad party stories. Whatever the press says about public sector staff WFH, a significant group at the centre worked long hours in the office throughout the pandemic in order to keep the lights on. I have some sympathy for the slippery line between blowing off some steam as a team and holding a full blown party. Doubtless some teams got it wrong and a swift apology would be appropriate. I'm also conflicted because it would have been quite easy for Boris to sell out his staff once the story blew up. However, the reflexive denial and the arrogant belief that even the most ridiculous statement can become true if repeated enough is hard to understand. If Boris had taken responsibility for his staff and apologised then this story could have been put to bed quickly with the appropriate lessons learnt
The lesson is dont make rules if you cannot keep them yourself or yourselves .
And don’t lie through your teeth over stuff you will never keep secret.
Held off commenting until now but here are my reflections as a Civil Servant on the myriad party stories. Whatever the press says about public sector staff WFH, a significant group at the centre worked long hours in the office throughout the pandemic in order to keep the lights on. I have some sympathy for the slippery line between blowing off some steam as a team and holding a full blown party. Doubtless some teams got it wrong and a swift apology would be appropriate. I'm also conflicted because it would have been quite easy for Boris to sell out his staff once the story blew up. However, the reflexive denial and the arrogant belief that even the most ridiculous statement can become true if repeated enough is hard to understand. If Boris had taken responsibility for his staff and apologised then this story could have been put to bed quickly with the appropriate lessons learnt
I would point out that teachers had longer hours and more intense pressures, and no prospect of working from home even in actual lockdown in many cases.
We didn't have Christmas parties. In fact, on the last day of term I spent an hour alone tidying the last classroom I'd taught in before going home.
Nor so far as I know did doctors or nurses, under far more intense pressure, have parties.
I am afraid that if that is the best defence the CS can come up with, they're comprehensively fucked and will be lucky if only sackings result.
Isn't it the case that the No10 parties were Boris's political staff - SPADs and the like - not civil servants, in the main?
Yeah that's definitely true. I was thinking more of the myriad other stories that seem to be coming out about other departments.
I don't see how Boris lasts until the next election. Which is a shame as he would be very easily beatable.
Isn't that the point? The remaining PB Peppa apologists bleat on about people being anto Boris as if we are doing it for partisan reasons.
The best way for Labour to remove the Tories is for Liar to stay in office. We all need rid of him because of the egregious damage his government is doing. Removing him and replacing him with someone not a tosser makes that job harder.
Labour will put its party interest above the national interest, just like the Tories.
Are we heading then for a 1992 result or a 2010 in reverse? I still think it's going to be difficult for Labour to form the next government but not impossible.
Once you start looking at the constituency by constituency situation, from the perspective of the labour party the mountain to climb is huge, almost insurmountable. All the problems that existed before (the impossibility of reconciling the interests of its metropolitan radical supporters and its traditional declining base) still exist. One of the problems is that, despite his popular appeal as a sensible and serious chap; Starmer doesn't actually have an answer to these existential problems.
Held off commenting until now but here are my reflections as a Civil Servant on the myriad party stories. Whatever the press says about public sector staff WFH, a significant group at the centre worked long hours in the office throughout the pandemic in order to keep the lights on. I have some sympathy for the slippery line between blowing off some steam as a team and holding a full blown party. Doubtless some teams got it wrong and a swift apology would be appropriate. I'm also conflicted because it would have been quite easy for Boris to sell out his staff once the story blew up. However, the reflexive denial and the arrogant belief that even the most ridiculous statement can become true if repeated enough is hard to understand. If Boris had taken responsibility for his staff and apologised then this story could have been put to bed quickly with the appropriate lessons learnt
The lesson is dont make rules if you cannot keep them yourself or yourselves .
Firstly Civil Servants don't make the rules. Secondly I'm not saying it's right what happened I'm just saying I can see how it did.
But they are supposed to know the rules, right? AND obey them?
Can someone explain to me how Sir Keir wins the next election? I get Boris is in big trouble, but can anyone really see Sir Keir taking seats like Mansfield, Bassetlaw and Ashfield all Tory Leave seats with large majorities for leave. The Tories also have the boundary changes to push through. I still cannot see a Labour majority. But I could be wrong.
He says that Brexit is settled, that there are now far more important matters to be addressed and that Johnson, whatever his past triumphs, is clearly not now fit to be PM.
It is the first of these that is key. If Starmer can make a believable case for not reopening Brexit then there is no reason why those sorts of seats should not turn back to him.
Can someone explain to me how Sir Keir wins the next election? I get Boris is in big trouble, but can anyone really see Sir Keir taking seats like Mansfield, Bassetlaw and Ashfield all Tory Leave seats with large majorities for leave. The Tories also have the boundary changes to push through. I still cannot see a Labour majority. But I could be wrong.
Because Brexit is done and seats in the red wall want levelling up, which they were promised.
Exactly and if it doesn’t happen there will be a price to,pay.
Imagine a tower block like the one in the Towering Inferno
There's a penthouse suite on the 150th floor where a bloke, let's call him Jackson, is doing coke and knobbing birds and generally being King of the World, and there's a small accountancy business on the 6th floor where a dreary balding bloke, call him Keith, is keeping up his chargeable hours. Now imagine Jackson falls off the balcony and splats on the street. Suddenly Keith is a neck breaking height above Jackson, just by virtue of where he is. Doesn't need to get in the lift, no reason to think he even knows how the lift works.
I swear I read a Martin Amis novel with exactly that plotline.
Are we heading then for a 1992 result or a 2010 in reverse? I still think it's going to be difficult for Labour to form the next government but not impossible.
We're heading for another two years when anything could happen. The past is of little use in predicting political futures.
Held off commenting until now but here are my reflections as a Civil Servant on the myriad party stories. Whatever the press says about public sector staff WFH, a significant group at the centre worked long hours in the office throughout the pandemic in order to keep the lights on. I have some sympathy for the slippery line between blowing off some steam as a team and holding a full blown party. Doubtless some teams got it wrong and a swift apology would be appropriate. I'm also conflicted because it would have been quite easy for Boris to sell out his staff once the story blew up. However, the reflexive denial and the arrogant belief that even the most ridiculous statement can become true if repeated enough is hard to understand. If Boris had taken responsibility for his staff and apologised then this story could have been put to bed quickly with the appropriate lessons learnt
I would point out that teachers had longer hours and more intense pressures, and no prospect of working from home even in actual lockdown in many cases.
We didn't have Christmas parties. In fact, on the last day of term I spent an hour alone tidying the last classroom I'd taught in before going home.
Nor so far as I know did doctors or nurses, under far more intense pressure, have parties.
I am afraid that if that is the best defence the CS can come up with, they're comprehensively fucked and will be lucky if only sackings result.
It’s not defensible, agreed - but had they fessed up, apologies been issued, disciplinaries, etc at the beginning of the year, they’d probably have got away with it. Determinedly pretending it didn’t happen for so long will sink this administration. It’s taking the piss twice over.
Held off commenting until now but here are my reflections as a Civil Servant on the myriad party stories. Whatever the press says about public sector staff WFH, a significant group at the centre worked long hours in the office throughout the pandemic in order to keep the lights on. I have some sympathy for the slippery line between blowing off some steam as a team and holding a full blown party. Doubtless some teams got it wrong and a swift apology would be appropriate. I'm also conflicted because it would have been quite easy for Boris to sell out his staff once the story blew up. However, the reflexive denial and the arrogant belief that even the most ridiculous statement can become true if repeated enough is hard to understand. If Boris had taken responsibility for his staff and apologised then this story could have been put to bed quickly with the appropriate lessons learnt
The lesson is dont make rules if you cannot keep them yourself or yourselves .
Firstly Civil Servants don't make the rules. Secondly I'm not saying it's right what happened I'm just saying I can see how it did.
Being an ex civil servant myself (I know) they kinda do make the rules in reality in most cases. I personally could not give a monkeys whether they had a party (I had a few last year as well) but they cant complain about getting fired if they are caught given their central roles (I mean they are not working for the DWP in Mansfield are they?)
Imagine a tower block like the one in the Towering Inferno
There's a penthouse suite on the 150th floor where a bloke, let's call him Jackson, is doing coke and knobbing birds and generally being King of the World, and there's a small accountancy business on the 6th floor where a dreary balding bloke, call him Keith, is keeping up his chargeable hours. Now imagine Jackson falls off the balcony and splats on the street. Suddenly Keith is a neck breaking height above Jackson, just by virtue of where he is. Doesn't need to get in the lift, no reason to think he even knows how the lift works.
It's a 'Cambridge change' in philosophy. In modern times attributed to Peter Geach, but actually thought up by Thomas Aquinas. Keith has done nothing but none the less has changed. All political change is relational. So there.
And we might get SKS v Hunt, snoresville, when we could have had Jess Phillips and Boris going 15 rounds.
Held off commenting until now but here are my reflections as a Civil Servant on the myriad party stories. Whatever the press says about public sector staff WFH, a significant group at the centre worked long hours in the office throughout the pandemic in order to keep the lights on. I have some sympathy for the slippery line between blowing off some steam as a team and holding a full blown party. Doubtless some teams got it wrong and a swift apology would be appropriate. I'm also conflicted because it would have been quite easy for Boris to sell out his staff once the story blew up. However, the reflexive denial and the arrogant belief that even the most ridiculous statement can become true if repeated enough is hard to understand. If Boris had taken responsibility for his staff and apologised then this story could have been put to bed quickly with the appropriate lessons learnt
I would point out that teachers had longer hours and more intense pressures, and no prospect of working from home even in actual lockdown in many cases.
We didn't have Christmas parties. In fact, on the last day of term I spent an hour alone tidying the last classroom I'd taught in before going home.
Nor so far as I know did doctors or nurses, under far more intense pressure, have parties.
I am afraid that if that is the best defence the CS can come up with, they're comprehensively fucked and will be lucky if only sackings result.
It’s not defensible, agreed - but had they fessed up, apologies been issued, disciplinaries, etc at the beginning of the year, they’d probably have got away with it. Determinedly pretending it didn’t happen for so long will sink this administration. It’s taking the piss twice over.
Not the CS; Johnson's political staff, just saying
"This is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning."
The Wheel of Time turns, and Ages come and pass, leaving memories that become legend. Legend fades to myth, and even myth is long forgotten when the Age that gave it birth comes again. In one Age, called the Third Age by some, an Age yet to come, an Age long past, a wind rose over the River Thames. The wind was not the beginning. There are neither beginnings nor endings to the Wheel of Time. But it was a beginning.
Two critical questions. Has Boris trashing his own brand and that of the government come too early for Labour? Is there a face-saving way of getting him out or would the Tories do better to remove him "with prejudice"?
Held off commenting until now but here are my reflections as a Civil Servant on the myriad party stories. Whatever the press says about public sector staff WFH, a significant group at the centre worked long hours in the office throughout the pandemic in order to keep the lights on. I have some sympathy for the slippery line between blowing off some steam as a team and holding a full blown party. Doubtless some teams got it wrong and a swift apology would be appropriate. I'm also conflicted because it would have been quite easy for Boris to sell out his staff once the story blew up. However, the reflexive denial and the arrogant belief that even the most ridiculous statement can become true if repeated enough is hard to understand. If Boris had taken responsibility for his staff and apologised then this story could have been put to bed quickly with the appropriate lessons learnt
The issue with that is that there were millions of people working long hours in the office or factory floor or hospital and they were not able to say, sod it lets have a few drinks because we deserve them. Yes they may have deserved them but they chose to follow the guidance and forego them. Civil Servants are no different to many millions of other essential workers who cannot work from home no matter what the risk.
Can someone explain to me how Sir Keir wins the next election? I get Boris is in big trouble, but can anyone really see Sir Keir taking seats like Mansfield, Bassetlaw and Ashfield all Tory Leave seats with large majorities for leave. The Tories also have the boundary changes to push through. I still cannot see a Labour majority. But I could be wrong.
He says that Brexit is settled, that there are now far more important matters to be addressed and that Johnson, whatever his past triumphs, is clearly not now fit to be PM.
It is the first of these that is key. If Starmer can make a believable case for not reopening Brexit then there is no reason why those sorts of seats should not turn back to him.
You just know though that during an election campaign, you'll get various Labour MPs shooting their mouths off about reopening Brexit and the Mail and Sun will have a field day.
Imagine a tower block like the one in the Towering Inferno
There's a penthouse suite on the 150th floor where a bloke, let's call him Jackson, is doing coke and knobbing birds and generally being King of the World, and there's a small accountancy business on the 6th floor where a dreary balding bloke, call him Keith, is keeping up his chargeable hours. Now imagine Jackson falls off the balcony and splats on the street. Suddenly Keith is a neck breaking height above Jackson, just by virtue of where he is. Doesn't need to get in the lift, no reason to think he even knows how the lift works.
I swear I read a Martin Amis novel with exactly that plotline.
Gotta feeling I may have started to read that one.
Held off commenting until now but here are my reflections as a Civil Servant on the myriad party stories. Whatever the press says about public sector staff WFH, a significant group at the centre worked long hours in the office throughout the pandemic in order to keep the lights on. I have some sympathy for the slippery line between blowing off some steam as a team and holding a full blown party. Doubtless some teams got it wrong and a swift apology would be appropriate. I'm also conflicted because it would have been quite easy for Boris to sell out his staff once the story blew up. However, the reflexive denial and the arrogant belief that even the most ridiculous statement can become true if repeated enough is hard to understand. If Boris had taken responsibility for his staff and apologised then this story could have been put to bed quickly with the appropriate lessons learnt
I would point out that teachers had longer hours and more intense pressures, and no prospect of working from home even in actual lockdown in many cases.
We didn't have Christmas parties. In fact, on the last day of term I spent an hour alone tidying the last classroom I'd taught in before going home.
Nor so far as I know did doctors or nurses, under far more intense pressure, have parties.
I am afraid that if that is the best defence the CS can come up with, they're comprehensively fucked and will be lucky if only sackings result.
It’s not defensible, agreed - but had they fessed up, apologies been issued, disciplinaries, etc at the beginning of the year, they’d probably have got away with it. Determinedly pretending it didn’t happen for so long will sink this administration. It’s taking the piss twice over.
Not the CS; Johnson's political staff, just saying
Held off commenting until now but here are my reflections as a Civil Servant on the myriad party stories. Whatever the press says about public sector staff WFH, a significant group at the centre worked long hours in the office throughout the pandemic in order to keep the lights on. I have some sympathy for the slippery line between blowing off some steam as a team and holding a full blown party. Doubtless some teams got it wrong and a swift apology would be appropriate. I'm also conflicted because it would have been quite easy for Boris to sell out his staff once the story blew up. However, the reflexive denial and the arrogant belief that even the most ridiculous statement can become true if repeated enough is hard to understand. If Boris had taken responsibility for his staff and apologised then this story could have been put to bed quickly with the appropriate lessons learnt
I would point out that teachers had longer hours and more intense pressures, and no prospect of working from home even in actual lockdown in many cases.
We didn't have Christmas parties. In fact, on the last day of term I spent an hour alone tidying the last classroom I'd taught in before going home.
Nor so far as I know did doctors or nurses, under far more intense pressure, have parties.
I am afraid that if that is the best defence the CS can come up with, they're comprehensively fucked and will be lucky if only sackings result.
It’s not defensible, agreed - but had they fessed up, apologies been issued, disciplinaries, etc at the beginning of the year, they’d probably have got away with it. Determinedly pretending it didn’t happen for so long will sink this administration. It’s taking the piss twice over.
Not the CS; Johnson's political staff, just saying
Can someone explain to me how Sir Keir wins the next election? I get Boris is in big trouble, but can anyone really see Sir Keir taking seats like Mansfield, Bassetlaw and Ashfield all Tory Leave seats with large majorities for leave. The Tories also have the boundary changes to push through. I still cannot see a Labour majority. But I could be wrong.
He says that Brexit is settled, that there are now far more important matters to be addressed and that Johnson, whatever his past triumphs, is clearly not now fit to be PM.
It is the first of these that is key. If Starmer can make a believable case for not reopening Brexit then there is no reason why those sorts of seats should not turn back to him.
You just know though that during an election campaign, you'll get various Labour MPs shooting their mouths off about reopening Brexit and the Mail and Sun will have a field day.
So you deal with it. Every campaign has its hiccups and I would not be so sure that on current headlines Johnson will be able to rely on either the Mail or the Sun.
Held off commenting until now but here are my reflections as a Civil Servant on the myriad party stories. Whatever the press says about public sector staff WFH, a significant group at the centre worked long hours in the office throughout the pandemic in order to keep the lights on. I have some sympathy for the slippery line between blowing off some steam as a team and holding a full blown party. Doubtless some teams got it wrong and a swift apology would be appropriate. I'm also conflicted because it would have been quite easy for Boris to sell out his staff once the story blew up. However, the reflexive denial and the arrogant belief that even the most ridiculous statement can become true if repeated enough is hard to understand. If Boris had taken responsibility for his staff and apologised then this story could have been put to bed quickly with the appropriate lessons learnt
The issue with that is that there were millions of people working long hours in the office or factory floor or hospital and they were not able to say, sod it lets have a few drinks because we deserve them. Yes they may have deserved them but they chose to follow the guidance and forego them. Civil Servants are no different to many millions of other essential workers who cannot work from home no matter what the risk.
I agree but we might have to be a bit pragmatic about investigating this. Would sacking the entire senior civil service in Whitehall with immediate effect be a good idea?
Two critical questions. Has Boris trashing his own brand and that of the government come too early for Labour? Is there a face-saving way of getting him out or would the Tories do better to remove him "with prejudice"?
His successor might think it better to remove him with prejudice
Held off commenting until now but here are my reflections as a Civil Servant on the myriad party stories. Whatever the press says about public sector staff WFH, a significant group at the centre worked long hours in the office throughout the pandemic in order to keep the lights on. I have some sympathy for the slippery line between blowing off some steam as a team and holding a full blown party. Doubtless some teams got it wrong and a swift apology would be appropriate. I'm also conflicted because it would have been quite easy for Boris to sell out his staff once the story blew up. However, the reflexive denial and the arrogant belief that even the most ridiculous statement can become true if repeated enough is hard to understand. If Boris had taken responsibility for his staff and apologised then this story could have been put to bed quickly with the appropriate lessons learnt
The lesson is dont make rules if you cannot keep them yourself or yourselves .
Firstly Civil Servants don't make the rules. Secondly I'm not saying it's right what happened I'm just saying I can see how it did.
But they are supposed to know the rules, right? AND obey them?
Agreed and I think anyone who broke them should have admitted it and taken the consequences. I just have some sympathy for how narrow the line can be. For example my old boss used to do wine Thursday where she'd bring a bottle and we'd all have a paper cup full. If that team has to be in the office during the pandemic is that a party or not?
Can someone explain to me how Sir Keir wins the next election? I get Boris is in big trouble, but can anyone really see Sir Keir taking seats like Mansfield, Bassetlaw and Ashfield all Tory Leave seats with large majorities for leave. The Tories also have the boundary changes to push through. I still cannot see a Labour majority. But I could be wrong.
He says that Brexit is settled, that there are now far more important matters to be addressed and that Johnson, whatever his past triumphs, is clearly not now fit to be PM.
It is the first of these that is key. If Starmer can make a believable case for not reopening Brexit then there is no reason why those sorts of seats should not turn back to him.
You just know though that during an election campaign, you'll get various Labour MPs shooting their mouths off about reopening Brexit and the Mail and Sun will have a field day.
So you deal with it. Every campaign has its hiccups and I would not be so sure that on current headlines Johnson will be able to rely on either the Mail or the Sun.
Imagine a tower block like the one in the Towering Inferno
There's a penthouse suite on the 150th floor where a bloke, let's call him Jackson, is doing coke and knobbing birds and generally being King of the World, and there's a small accountancy business on the 6th floor where a dreary balding bloke, call him Keith, is keeping up his chargeable hours. Now imagine Jackson falls off the balcony and splats on the street. Suddenly Keith is a neck breaking height above Jackson, just by virtue of where he is. Doesn't need to get in the lift, no reason to think he even knows how the lift works.
All hunky-dory, save for the fire on the fifth floor?
Two critical questions. Has Boris trashing his own brand and that of the government come too early for Labour? Is there a face-saving way of getting him out or would the Tories do better to remove him "with prejudice"?
Removing him tomorrow might give them time to recover.
OTOH the economic prospects for the next two years are very grim - hard to see an alternative Tory turning it around.
Held off commenting until now but here are my reflections as a Civil Servant on the myriad party stories. Whatever the press says about public sector staff WFH, a significant group at the centre worked long hours in the office throughout the pandemic in order to keep the lights on. I have some sympathy for the slippery line between blowing off some steam as a team and holding a full blown party. Doubtless some teams got it wrong and a swift apology would be appropriate. I'm also conflicted because it would have been quite easy for Boris to sell out his staff once the story blew up. However, the reflexive denial and the arrogant belief that even the most ridiculous statement can become true if repeated enough is hard to understand. If Boris had taken responsibility for his staff and apologised then this story could have been put to bed quickly with the appropriate lessons learnt
I would point out that teachers had longer hours and more intense pressures, and no prospect of working from home even in actual lockdown in many cases.
We didn't have Christmas parties. In fact, on the last day of term I spent an hour alone tidying the last classroom I'd taught in before going home.
Nor so far as I know did doctors or nurses, under far more intense pressure, have parties.
I am afraid that if that is the best defence the CS can come up with, they're comprehensively fucked and will be lucky if only sackings result.
It’s not defensible, agreed - but had they fessed up, apologies been issued, disciplinaries, etc at the beginning of the year, they’d probably have got away with it. Determinedly pretending it didn’t happen for so long will sink this administration. It’s taking the piss twice over.
Not the CS; Johnson's political staff, just saying
Held off commenting until now but here are my reflections as a Civil Servant on the myriad party stories. Whatever the press says about public sector staff WFH, a significant group at the centre worked long hours in the office throughout the pandemic in order to keep the lights on. I have some sympathy for the slippery line between blowing off some steam as a team and holding a full blown party. Doubtless some teams got it wrong and a swift apology would be appropriate. I'm also conflicted because it would have been quite easy for Boris to sell out his staff once the story blew up. However, the reflexive denial and the arrogant belief that even the most ridiculous statement can become true if repeated enough is hard to understand. If Boris had taken responsibility for his staff and apologised then this story could have been put to bed quickly with the appropriate lessons learnt
The issue with that is that there were millions of people working long hours in the office or factory floor or hospital and they were not able to say, sod it lets have a few drinks because we deserve them. Yes they may have deserved them but they chose to follow the guidance and forego them. Civil Servants are no different to many millions of other essential workers who cannot work from home no matter what the risk.
I agree but we might have to be a bit pragmatic about investigating this. Would sacking the entire senior civil service in Whitehall with immediate effect be a good idea?
Judging by the past two years (if not longer) I'll say 'hell yes.'
One thing I note, Boris' new baby barely moved the news cycle. Not that it should, it's a private matter. But these things normally do a bit more than the news did.
One thing I note, Boris' new baby barely moved the news cycle. Not that it should, it's a private matter. But these things normally do a bit more than the news did.
Partly the other news, partly its not news when you have....7....8.....9 kids...
Held off commenting until now but here are my reflections as a Civil Servant on the myriad party stories. Whatever the press says about public sector staff WFH, a significant group at the centre worked long hours in the office throughout the pandemic in order to keep the lights on. I have some sympathy for the slippery line between blowing off some steam as a team and holding a full blown party. Doubtless some teams got it wrong and a swift apology would be appropriate. I'm also conflicted because it would have been quite easy for Boris to sell out his staff once the story blew up. However, the reflexive denial and the arrogant belief that even the most ridiculous statement can become true if repeated enough is hard to understand. If Boris had taken responsibility for his staff and apologised then this story could have been put to bed quickly with the appropriate lessons learnt
That’s the point, though, isn’t it? The party story has salience in large part as an exemplar for his faults that were always there.
Can someone explain to me how Sir Keir wins the next election? I get Boris is in big trouble, but can anyone really see Sir Keir taking seats like Mansfield, Bassetlaw and Ashfield all Tory Leave seats with large majorities for leave. The Tories also have the boundary changes to push through. I still cannot see a Labour majority. But I could be wrong.
He says that Brexit is settled, that there are now far more important matters to be addressed and that Johnson, whatever his past triumphs, is clearly not now fit to be PM.
It is the first of these that is key. If Starmer can make a believable case for not reopening Brexit then there is no reason why those sorts of seats should not turn back to him.
You just know though that during an election campaign, you'll get various Labour MPs shooting their mouths off about reopening Brexit and the Mail and Sun will have a field day.
So you deal with it. Every campaign has its hiccups and I would not be so sure that on current headlines Johnson will be able to rely on either the Mail or the Sun.
Oh he'll be gone.
Boris is done. It's just a matter of when IMO.
All politicians leave at some point. Even Mao and Stalin did. EvenCastro.
So your post is literally true and yet not especially precise.
I personally still think it hinges on Oswestry. If he loses an unnecessary by-election in a safe seat held for 115 years...
Are we heading then for a 1992 result or a 2010 in reverse? I still think it's going to be difficult for Labour to form the next government but not impossible.
Once you start looking at the constituency by constituency situation, from the perspective of the labour party the mountain to climb is huge, almost insurmountable. All the problems that existed before (the impossibility of reconciling the interests of its metropolitan radical supporters and its traditional declining base) still exist. One of the problems is that, despite his popular appeal as a sensible and serious chap; Starmer doesn't actually have an answer to these existential problems.
The changes to the Shadow Cabinet are partly an answer to that. Don't underestimate them. It's not particularly 'woke', for one thing (I don't think you like wokeness). But more importantly, it's full of people who are not 'metropolitan radical supporters', but northern MPs.
Reeves, Philipson, Rayner, Cooper, Nandy, Miliband, Powell, for example. They are all in a position, both geographically and politically, to appeal to the traditional Labour base as well as its urban supporters.
Can someone explain to me how Sir Keir wins the next election? I get Boris is in big trouble, but can anyone really see Sir Keir taking seats like Mansfield, Bassetlaw and Ashfield all Tory Leave seats with large majorities for leave. The Tories also have the boundary changes to push through. I still cannot see a Labour majority. But I could be wrong.
He says that Brexit is settled, that there are now far more important matters to be addressed and that Johnson, whatever his past triumphs, is clearly not now fit to be PM.
It is the first of these that is key. If Starmer can make a believable case for not reopening Brexit then there is no reason why those sorts of seats should not turn back to him.
You just know though that during an election campaign, you'll get various Labour MPs shooting their mouths off about reopening Brexit and the Mail and Sun will have a field day.
So you deal with it. Every campaign has its hiccups and I would not be so sure that on current headlines Johnson will be able to rely on either the Mail or the Sun.
Oh he'll be gone.
Boris is done. It's just a matter of when IMO.
In Titanic terms, it's already hit the iceberg. It'll sail on for a bit, the orchestra will play, they might rearrange the deckchairs a couple of times. But it's made of iron, and it will sink.
32% must be pretty close to the Tory floor under Boris
No, I think it can go a bit lower. Boris has pushed out a lot of normally loyal voters like myself, TSE, Philip Thompson etc... and now he's losing his new voters too. The core vote has been shat on.
HYUFD loves to exult in being the Only Tory in the Village and his purity in voting Tory even when Blair was PM.
Well if the next election the Tories get the vote of HYUFD but not any of the votes of you, TSE and myself or Big G, Casino, Robert, Richard and many more too it seems then if that happens the Tories will clearly be losing office.
You don't get to spit at your supporters and tell them it's raining.
"The number of deaths will be revised up, particularly for the current week, so will probably double again to 200-250. For now, these are still very low levels compared with previous waves, but not negligible by any means."
VERY LOW LEVELS
Your not suggesting that the UK modellers 75k deaths in next 4 months might prove to be way out?
On past form 7.5 deaths would be closer.
(The .5 being another SeanT identity biting the dust...)
My model is proving perfectly accurate so far.
Is it HO gauge? That's more accurate than OO gauge
That's furrin, will upset too many people here.
Protofour is really what the discerning rivet counter wants for GB (Ireland does not count, different gauge AIUI, but it's been written off Brexit wise anyway).
HO is accurate for body-shell and track gauge (both 1:87), but stupid OO gauge has 1:76 body-shell gauge with 1:87 track gauge.
Can someone explain to me how Sir Keir wins the next election? I get Boris is in big trouble, but can anyone really see Sir Keir taking seats like Mansfield, Bassetlaw and Ashfield all Tory Leave seats with large majorities for leave. The Tories also have the boundary changes to push through. I still cannot see a Labour majority. But I could be wrong.
He says that Brexit is settled, that there are now far more important matters to be addressed and that Johnson, whatever his past triumphs, is clearly not now fit to be PM.
It is the first of these that is key. If Starmer can make a believable case for not reopening Brexit then there is no reason why those sorts of seats should not turn back to him.
You just know though that during an election campaign, you'll get various Labour MPs shooting their mouths off about reopening Brexit and the Mail and Sun will have a field day.
So you deal with it. Every campaign has its hiccups and I would not be so sure that on current headlines Johnson will be able to rely on either the Mail or the Sun.
Oh he'll be gone.
Boris is done. It's just a matter of when IMO.
In Titanic terms, it's already hit the iceberg. It'll sail on for a bit, the orchestra will play, they might rearrange the deckchairs a couple of times. But it's made of iron, and it will sink.
Are we heading then for a 1992 result or a 2010 in reverse? I still think it's going to be difficult for Labour to form the next government but not impossible.
We're heading for another two years when anything could happen. The past is of little use in predicting political futures.
Surely the swing required to put Labour into office is too big? I remember the years between 1992 and 1997 where ever you went from Milton Keynes to Bristol to Birmingham people were fed up with the Tories and were enthusiastic for Tony Blair. Seeing though we have had almost a Civil War between remain and Brexit - I just cannot see (again I maybe wrong) the voter in Hartlepool, Ashfield or Blyth coming out to vote for the same side as a Sir Keir, Alistair Campbell or Anna Soubry - I'd be surprised if Soubry like Bercow doesn't voice her support for a Sir Keir lead government. Those ex Labour voters in former industrial towns are not going to vote for a party committed to either free movement or making it safer for Asylum seekers to cross the channel. I get the government is becoming unpopular but I just don't see the unity across the country (yet) that I seen in 1997 and 2010.
Are we heading then for a 1992 result or a 2010 in reverse? I still think it's going to be difficult for Labour to form the next government but not impossible.
Once you start looking at the constituency by constituency situation, from the perspective of the labour party the mountain to climb is huge, almost insurmountable. All the problems that existed before (the impossibility of reconciling the interests of its metropolitan radical supporters and its traditional declining base) still exist. One of the problems is that, despite his popular appeal as a sensible and serious chap; Starmer doesn't actually have an answer to these existential problems.
The changes to the Shadow Cabinet are partly an answer to that. Don't underestimate them. It's not particularly 'woke', for one thing (I don't think you like wokeness). But more importantly, it's full of people who are not 'metropolitan radical supporters', but northern MPs.
Reeves, Philipson, Rayner, Cooper, Nandy, Miliband, Powell, for example. They are all in a position, both geographically and politically, to appeal to the traditional Labour base as well as its urban supporters.
IMHO the situation is as before with regard to Labour winning outright (326 seats). They can't. But they have a nearly 50% chance of leading the next government.
One thing I note, Boris' new baby barely moved the news cycle. Not that it should, it's a private matter. But these things normally do a bit more than the news did.
I think that's just the law of diminishing returns .A law not even he can break
Imagine a tower block like the one in the Towering Inferno
There's a penthouse suite on the 150th floor where a bloke, let's call him Jackson, is doing coke and knobbing birds and generally being King of the World, and there's a small accountancy business on the 6th floor where a dreary balding bloke, call him Keith, is keeping up his chargeable hours. Now imagine Jackson falls off the balcony and splats on the street. Suddenly Keith is a neck breaking height above Jackson, just by virtue of where he is. Doesn't need to get in the lift, no reason to think he even knows how the lift works.
All hunky-dory, save for the fire on the fifth floor?
Doesn't matter. Height above ground level is the metric, as far as GE 2022/3/4 is concerned
"The number of deaths will be revised up, particularly for the current week, so will probably double again to 200-250. For now, these are still very low levels compared with previous waves, but not negligible by any means."
VERY LOW LEVELS
Your not suggesting that the UK modellers 75k deaths in next 4 months might prove to be way out?
On past form 7.5 deaths would be closer.
(The .5 being another SeanT identity biting the dust...)
My model is proving perfectly accurate so far.
Is it HO gauge? That's more accurate than OO gauge
That's furrin, will upset too many people here.
Protofour is really what the discerning rivet counter wants for GB (Ireland does not count, different gauge AIUI, but it's been written off Brexit wise anyway).
HO is accurate for body-shell and track gauge (both 1:87), but stupid OO gauge has 1:76 body-shell gauge with 1:87 track gauge.
Exactly, which is the point of Protofour which is true 1:76.
Can someone explain to me how Sir Keir wins the next election? I get Boris is in big trouble, but can anyone really see Sir Keir taking seats like Mansfield, Bassetlaw and Ashfield all Tory Leave seats with large majorities for leave. The Tories also have the boundary changes to push through. I still cannot see a Labour majority. But I could be wrong.
He says that Brexit is settled, that there are now far more important matters to be addressed and that Johnson, whatever his past triumphs, is clearly not now fit to be PM.
It is the first of these that is key. If Starmer can make a believable case for not reopening Brexit then there is no reason why those sorts of seats should not turn back to him.
You just know though that during an election campaign, you'll get various Labour MPs shooting their mouths off about reopening Brexit and the Mail and Sun will have a field day.
So you deal with it. Every campaign has its hiccups and I would not be so sure that on current headlines Johnson will be able to rely on either the Mail or the Sun.
Oh he'll be gone.
Boris is done. It's just a matter of when IMO.
All politicians leave at some point. Even Mao and Stalin did. EvenCastro.
So your post is literally true and yet not especially precise.
I personally still think it hinges on Oswestry. If he loses an unnecessary by-election in a safe seat held for 115 years...
Nah, I exepct the Tories will probably hang on in N Shropshire (split LD/Lab vote) but @OnlyLivingBoy's analogy upthread is apt. Johnson has made a Titanic mess of being PM and the iceberg has already struck. Just a matter of time.
Thank you. I have a quiet night tonight and popped back for a bit of a Xmas session.
I miss your perceptive contributions, please don't stay away so long next time ;-)
I had a lot to do and I just had no time to spare. I have not really finished so this may be a fleeting visit depending on what happens over the next few days and weeks. We will see...
Having done a bit of reading upthread, it seems that not much has changed around here.
Two critical questions. Has Boris trashing his own brand and that of the government come too early for Labour? Is there a face-saving way of getting him out or would the Tories do better to remove him "with prejudice"?
On balance Starmer has probably done better as a result of casting Corbyn into the outer darkness than he would have done by pursuing party unity. Similarly Johnson’s successor might decide that complete repudiation of the Borisonian Nightmare is the best chance of having an excuse for the state of the country going into the next election (“yes we know it’s a disaster, but we are fixing the damage done by a rogue actor who is nothing to do with our party”).
Comments
Roughly, the Conservatives need to go from complacency (midterm blues, Boris will fix it, swingback) to despair (we're doomed, who wants to be a one year fagend PM, better to rebuild from opposition... think Conservatives in 1996) with no intermediate state.
Would Boris be willing to endure that? I don't know, and I doubt he does either.
But whilst some of this is probably froth, there's a sicky taste at the back of voter's mouths now, and that's not going away completely.
I'm as devout as I am working class or modest.
As I'm not a Tory and want them to lose I'm going: 1) Rees-Mogg, 2) Patel, 3) Truss.
"This is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning."
There's partisanship and there's nihilism, and your post heads towards the latter.
Starmer doesn't need any of them to become PM.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=th4Czv1j3F8
The ICM marginals poll in September/October 2007 really was a game changer.
I'm still distracted by AJ's and Kai's first dance in tonight's Strictly.
Nice to see you again @Beibheirli_C 👍
We didn't have Christmas parties. In fact, on the last day of term I spent an hour alone tidying the last classroom I'd taught in before going home.
Nor so far as I know did doctors or nurses, under far more intense pressure, have parties.
I am afraid that if that is the best defence the CS can come up with, they're comprehensively fucked and will be lucky if only sackings result.
There is a lot of lazy assumptions that Brexit Party was borrowed Tory votes but as we saw previously (UKIP 2015) did not equal (Tory 2017) .
https://twitter.com/electionwiz/status/1469418652562866182?s=21
But a 2010 style reverse isn't impossible. Indeed, arguably it would be the best outcome given the damage it would do the SNP. Back Labour and get no second referendum anyway - or keep the Tories in office? Not a choice they would relish.
More a case the Tories win the most seats in 2024 but they cannot function as minority government as they are too far away from 310 (where I think the Tories could function as a minority government) that a temporary rainbow coalition takes power for a while until a new election.
As David Cameron said, going into an election as PM gives you huge powers and advantages, something Starmer would have.
Later.
But the thrust still applies. Would anyone actually notice if all these SPADs had fecked off for 18 months? I would argue not given how poor most of their advice is.
Yet if they really think they are indispensable and deserve to blow off steam when those of us working hard in dangerous conditions didn't, they're in deep shit.
It is the first of these that is key. If Starmer can make a believable case for not reopening Brexit then there is no reason why those sorts of seats should not turn back to him.
The wheels have well and truly come off the trolley!
We're heading for another two years when anything could happen. The past is of little use in predicting political futures.
Determinedly pretending it didn’t happen for so long will sink this administration. It’s taking the piss twice over.
And we might get SKS v Hunt, snoresville, when we could have had Jess Phillips and Boris going 15 rounds.
Boris is done. It's just a matter of when IMO.
All hunky-dory, save for the fire on the fifth floor?
OTOH the economic prospects for the next two years are very grim - hard to see an alternative Tory turning it around.
For UKers - Don't do the offense, if you're taking the Queen's pence.
So your post is literally true and yet not especially precise.
I personally still think it hinges on Oswestry. If he loses an unnecessary by-election in a safe seat held for 115 years...
Reeves, Philipson, Rayner, Cooper, Nandy, Miliband, Powell, for example. They are all in a position, both geographically and politically, to appeal to the traditional Labour base as well as its urban supporters.
Well if the next election the Tories get the vote of HYUFD but not any of the votes of you, TSE and myself or Big G, Casino, Robert, Richard and many more too it seems then if that happens the Tories will clearly be losing office.
You don't get to spit at your supporters and tell them it's raining.
Majority under 3000….
Hunt will probably be OK.
Having done a bit of reading upthread, it seems that not much has changed around here.