Plan B should have never happened and should be getting reversed. Never an excuse for 'Plan C' no matter what.
Boris has gone native, its time for him to go.
Native to what?
Too readily listening to the scientists, civil servants, SAGE or whatever advisors are telling him to go with this bullshit.
Advisors advise, but ministers decide, but he seems to have thrown his own judgment out the window and is letting the advisors decide for him. He needs to go.
In other words, he should not listen to the experts because their view does not accord with yours?
Lining up to oppose a popular policy sounds like the perfect response to plummeting in the polls.
Superficially popular. If it was legitimately popular people would have been voluntarily wearing masks etc without requiring a mandate to go in.
Many things are superficially popular until they get announced at which point they become unpopular - the NI Tax Rise earlier this year was another example. It was superficially popular in polls when it was hypothetical, but once it became policy it was unpopular.
I'm no statistic guru but when Blair won his landslide the swing required wasn't that big 1997 Kinnock had done a lot of the heavy lifting 1992. Also as I mentioned the feeling across the country was that Major was finished. Labour face a mountain to climb and need to win over the sort of voters who don't want free movement or an easier route across the channel for asylum seekers. I've no doubts after Boris self inflicted wounds that the electorate are willing to once again give Labour a hearing but what is the Labour offer?
He got a very large swing though. Twice as large as any other swing since the war.
Coincidentally that is also pretty much exactly the swing required for Labour to have a majority of one next time.
The electorate has changed since 1997 though. Can you really see those ex Labour voters in northern industrial towns flocking to the same camp as Campbell, Soubry, Bercow. I don't think they will.
That's why I think Boris has got several months left because I think Sunak et al will want Covid dealt with (certainly this latest wave) and for the country to be in the warm sunlight of summer, before they'd want to take over.
Boris is finished but he's not going anywhere for a good few months (sorry Boris heaters)
Are Boris heaters the latest carbon zero wheeze?
They will produce plenty of hot air, but who knows where it will blow?
Plan B should have never happened and should be getting reversed. Never an excuse for 'Plan C' no matter what.
Boris has gone native, its time for him to go.
Native to what?
Too readily listening to the scientists, civil servants, SAGE or whatever advisors are telling him to go with this bullshit.
Advisors advise, but ministers decide, but he seems to have thrown his own judgment out the window and is letting the advisors decide for him. He needs to go.
In other words, he should not listen to the experts because their view does not accord with yours?
Yes.
He once campaigned with someone who wisely said "I think the people in this country have had enough of experts with organisations from acronyms saying that they know what is best and getting it consistently wrong."
Whatever happened to him? They both seem to have gone native now.
PBers will no doubt be shocked down to their socks to learn the following:
That the Calendar (New Style) Act 1750 was amended (or rather supplemented) the next year by an amendment to 25 Geo II c.31, an act concerning distemper in cattle, to specify the date of annual local elections in Chester, by moving them (the elections, not the cattle) forward by one week.
I have no doubt JRM is poltting to repeal the 1750 Act that foisted European calendars on us.
"Give us back our eleven days!" - slogan on Boris Johnson Battle Bus Mark II
That's why I think Boris has got several months left because I think Sunak et al will want Covid dealt with (certainly this latest wave) and for the country to be in the warm sunlight of summer, before they'd want to take over.
Boris is finished but he's not going anywhere for a good few months (sorry Boris heaters)
Are Boris heaters the latest carbon zero wheeze?
They will produce plenty of hot air, but who knows where it will blow?
PM caught on screen, sitting beneath portrait of Margaret Thatcher, as he hosted round of quiz on December 15 last year.
He was flanked by two members of top team, one wearing Santa hat, other draped in tinsel. At time, law banned mixing w/ other households for social reasons.
The quiz was supposed to be virtual - but many staff (one source says around 70) stayed in No 10 after work instead.
They huddled by computers, conferring on questions and knocking back fizz, wine and beer. Private office, policy unit & press office all had in-person teams.
🚨 NEW: Allies of Theresa May are preparing to submit letters of no confidence in Boris Johnson unless he changes his ways. Some will join the Covid rebellion this week. The Mayite move is dubbed Operation Revenge by allies of Johnson
🚨 NEW: Allies of Theresa May are preparing to submit letters of no confidence in Boris Johnson unless he changes his ways. Some will join the Covid rebellion this week. The Mayite move is dubbed Operation Revenge by allies of Johnson
Plan B should have never happened and should be getting reversed. Never an excuse for 'Plan C' no matter what.
Boris has gone native, its time for him to go.
Native to what?
Too readily listening to the scientists, civil servants, SAGE or whatever advisors are telling him to go with this bullshit.
Advisors advise, but ministers decide, but he seems to have thrown his own judgment out the window and is letting the advisors decide for him. He needs to go.
In other words, he should not listen to the experts because their view does not accord with yours?
Yes.
He once campaigned with someone who wisely said "I think the people in this country have had enough of experts with organisations from acronyms saying that they know what is best and getting it consistently wrong."
Whatever happened to him? They both seem to have gone native now.
Chris Witty or Philip Thompson, whom should I trust on Covid? I shall have to ponder that for a nanosecond...
🚨 NEW: Allies of Theresa May are preparing to submit letters of no confidence in Boris Johnson unless he changes his ways. Some will join the Covid rebellion this week. The Mayite move is dubbed Operation Revenge by allies of Johnson
Held off commenting until now but here are my reflections as a Civil Servant on the myriad party stories. Whatever the press says about public sector staff WFH, a significant group at the centre worked long hours in the office throughout the pandemic in order to keep the lights on. I have some sympathy for the slippery line between blowing off some steam as a team and holding a full blown party. Doubtless some teams got it wrong and a swift apology would be appropriate. I'm also conflicted because it would have been quite easy for Boris to sell out his staff once the story blew up. However, the reflexive denial and the arrogant belief that even the most ridiculous statement can become true if repeated enough is hard to understand. If Boris had taken responsibility for his staff and apologised then this story could have been put to bed quickly with the appropriate lessons learnt
At the same time Mrs Foxy was working Covid ICU, and our usual bring and share Christmas lunch was banned at the hospital for being too high risk.
Lots of people were working long hours, but only some followed the rules.
It really is the arrogance of power, the rules are for the little people, not the masters of the universe and world king.
I'm no statistic guru but when Blair won his landslide the swing required wasn't that big 1997 Kinnock had done a lot of the heavy lifting 1992. Also as I mentioned the feeling across the country was that Major was finished. Labour face a mountain to climb and need to win over the sort of voters who don't want free movement or an easier route across the channel for asylum seekers. I've no doubts after Boris self inflicted wounds that the electorate are willing to once again give Labour a hearing but what is the Labour offer?
He got a very large swing though. Twice as large as any other swing since the war.
Coincidentally that is also pretty much exactly the swing required for Labour to have a majority of one next time.
He did - but he also did so on the back of a pact, if secret, with the LibDems, which influenced both the pitch and the geography of the national campaigns. Alongside Labour’s big swing, the LibDems chalked up a swathe of gains from the Tories to produce the largest third party contingent for a generation. The deal - revealed in Ashdown’s memoirs (which I doubt many Labour members troubled themselves with, but many LibDems read in shock) included places in government for leading LibDems - which Blair couldn’t deliver because the election campaign had overshot his expectations.
Plan B should have never happened and should be getting reversed. Never an excuse for 'Plan C' no matter what.
Boris has gone native, its time for him to go.
Native to what?
Too readily listening to the scientists, civil servants, SAGE or whatever advisors are telling him to go with this bullshit.
Advisors advise, but ministers decide, but he seems to have thrown his own judgment out the window and is letting the advisors decide for him. He needs to go.
In other words, he should not listen to the experts because their view does not accord with yours?
Yes.
He once campaigned with someone who wisely said "I think the people in this country have had enough of experts with organisations from acronyms saying that they know what is best and getting it consistently wrong."
Whatever happened to him? They both seem to have gone native now.
Chris Witty or Philip Thompson, whom should I trust on Covid? I shall have to ponder that for a nanosecond...
A choice between Philip and Christina Pagel and nobody would hesitate for a second...
For a bit of context, these are the lowpoints for past governments based on the Wikipedia averaged wiggly lines;
Thatcher 79-83: 28 % about Christmas 1981 (Alliance surge) Thatcher 83-87: 30 % about summer '85 (classic midterm?) Thatcher/Major 87-92: 33% in spring 1990 (Poll Tax bills landing- funnily enough, the Conservatives recovered over the summer before falling back again in the autumn) Major 92-97: 24% in summer '95 Blair 97-01:38% in September 2000 (fuel crisis) Blair 01-05: 33% in June 2004 (Euro elections- UKIP effect?) Blair/Brown 05-10: 23% in June 2009 (Euro elections on top of credit crunch) Cameron 10-15: 29% in May 2013 (mid term? UKIP were doing well then for some reason) Cameron/May 15-17: 34% in June 2016 (UKIP surge linked to the referendum) May/Johnson 17-19: 20% in June 2019 (everything was going mad)
I think the moral is that 32% isn't that bad... yet. On the other hand, the Conservatives have hoovered up the Brexity vote, so there's less opportunity for recovery.
Wasn’t summer ‘85 the dollar parity with the plaza accord in September?
I was too young to remember but I’d imagine that could impact support for a right of centre government at a time when the exchange rate was news
Crerar was very uneasy being questioned about the further revelations to come - having blurted out that there likely would be some on Newsnight. It wasn’t clear at the time whether she was trying to backtrack from speculation or trying to avoid revealing what they would be ahead of time. Hopefully the latter.
I may have had a few but Boris Johnson sitting at a table looking at a computer screen with the Iron Lady taking prime position in the background doesn't appear to be a national scandal to me?
Lining up to oppose a popular policy sounds like the perfect response to plummeting in the polls.
Superficially popular. If it was legitimately popular people would have been voluntarily wearing masks etc without requiring a mandate to go in.
Many things are superficially popular until they get announced at which point they become unpopular - the NI Tax Rise earlier this year was another example. It was superficially popular in polls when it was hypothetical, but once it became policy it was unpopular.
yes funny how the tories dropped in the opinion polls just after they announced the mask mandate if mask wearing is so popular.
PM caught on screen, sitting beneath portrait of Margaret Thatcher, as he hosted round of quiz on December 15 last year.
He was flanked by two members of top team, one wearing Santa hat, other draped in tinsel. At time, law banned mixing w/ other households for social reasons.
The quiz was supposed to be virtual - but many staff (one source says around 70) stayed in No 10 after work instead.
They huddled by computers, conferring on questions and knocking back fizz, wine and beer. Private office, policy unit & press office all had in-person teams.
Lining up to oppose a popular policy sounds like the perfect response to plummeting in the polls.
Superficially popular. If it was legitimately popular people would have been voluntarily wearing masks etc without requiring a mandate to go in.
Many things are superficially popular until they get announced at which point they become unpopular - the NI Tax Rise earlier this year was another example. It was superficially popular in polls when it was hypothetical, but once it became policy it was unpopular.
yes funny how the tories dropped in the opinion polls just after they announced the mask mandate if mask wearing is so popular.
You might have noticed there have been a few other stories in the press recently.
Historians, political scientists, and psychoanalysts would like to thank Boris Johnson for opening up a rich mine of material for books, papers and biographies.
Holding a zoom quiz where some people who worked together all day, quizzed together? Really? Very thin now.
Pictures of an absolutely shit looking party where the highlight was a Zoom quiz are just what the PM could do with. Though it's a detail and the narrative has been set running, so how many people are going to pay attention to this I'm not sure. He could probably have done with this being the front page when the "party" story broke, as the lack of pictures allowed people's imaginations to run wild with what might have gone on but probably didn't.
Lining up to oppose a popular policy sounds like the perfect response to plummeting in the polls.
Superficially popular. If it was legitimately popular people would have been voluntarily wearing masks etc without requiring a mandate to go in.
Many things are superficially popular until they get announced at which point they become unpopular - the NI Tax Rise earlier this year was another example. It was superficially popular in polls when it was hypothetical, but once it became policy it was unpopular.
Mask wearing, like taxation, requires most people to participate to be useful. Leaving it to individuals to act voluntarily doesn’t work,
I have commented in this story. From what I have been told - social quiz, alcohol being drunk, lots of people together at the office (teams of 6, up to 24 in one room) - it's a clear breach of the govt's guidance and a potential breach of the law, including by the PM
Plan B should have never happened and should be getting reversed. Never an excuse for 'Plan C' no matter what.
Boris has gone native, its time for him to go.
Native to what?
Too readily listening to the scientists, civil servants, SAGE or whatever advisors are telling him to go with this bullshit.
Advisors advise, but ministers decide, but he seems to have thrown his own judgment out the window and is letting the advisors decide for him. He needs to go.
In other words, he should not listen to the experts because their view does not accord with yours?
Yes.
He once campaigned with someone who wisely said "I think the people in this country have had enough of experts with organisations from acronyms saying that they know what is best and getting it consistently wrong."
Whatever happened to him? They both seem to have gone native now.
Chris Witty or Philip Thompson, whom should I trust on Covid? I shall have to ponder that for a nanosecond...
Who elected Chris Whitty? How do we vote to get rid of him?
Advisors advise, they are not meant to decide. Any Minister who wholesale abandons his judgement and lets the 'experts' decide isn't doing his job and may as well be replaced.
At the time London was in tier 2 restrictions which banned any social gathering indoors of more than two people. At the time, Covid cases were soaring. On December 15 last year, 459 people died from coronavirus, while another 33,828 were infected. https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1469792713461673992
I may have had a few but Boris Johnson sitting at a table looking at a computer screen with the Iron Lady taking prime position in the background doesn't appear to be a national scandal to me?
Plus if it's a quiz why is the woman on the right allowed to have a laptop open?
The Mirror strikes me as a bit dickless these days
For a bit of context, these are the lowpoints for past governments based on the Wikipedia averaged wiggly lines;
Thatcher 79-83: 28 % about Christmas 1981 (Alliance surge) Thatcher 83-87: 30 % about summer '85 (classic midterm?) Thatcher/Major 87-92: 33% in spring 1990 (Poll Tax bills landing- funnily enough, the Conservatives recovered over the summer before falling back again in the autumn) Major 92-97: 24% in summer '95 Blair 97-01:38% in September 2000 (fuel crisis) Blair 01-05: 33% in June 2004 (Euro elections- UKIP effect?) Blair/Brown 05-10: 23% in June 2009 (Euro elections on top of credit crunch) Cameron 10-15: 29% in May 2013 (mid term? UKIP were doing well then for some reason) Cameron/May 15-17: 34% in June 2016 (UKIP surge linked to the referendum) May/Johnson 17-19: 20% in June 2019 (everything was going mad)
I think the moral is that 32% isn't that bad... yet. On the other hand, the Conservatives have hoovered up the Brexity vote, so there's less opportunity for recovery.
Wasn’t summer ‘85 the dollar parity with the plaza accord in September?
I was too young to remember but I’d imagine that could impact support for a right of centre government at a time when the exchange rate was news
There was a little contretemps with the coal miners.
I may have had a few but Boris Johnson sitting at a table looking at a computer screen with the Iron Lady taking prime position in the background doesn't appear to be a national scandal to me?
Plus if it's a quiz why is the woman on the right allowed to have a laptop open?
The Mirror strikes me as a bit dickless these days
She’s probably keeping the scores, as I did on a zoom quiz in lockdown.
The only way for Boris to hang on and win again would be to start publicly saying he is ignoring sage and lockdown extremists and say all restrictions are being lifted - he has about until the end of Jan I think to do that
What on earth makes you think that would improve his ratings? Quite the opposite, as all the relevant opinion polling confirms.
I accept you have sincere views on the approach to covid but public opinion is not with you.
just go into any Macdonalds or a pub and see how popular restrictions are in reality (not some opinion poll that can easiliy be manipulated or people feeling they have to say something virtuous
Am right now awaiting delivery (delayed) of my newly-acquired old copy of the correspondence of Herbert Asquith to Venetia Stanley. Which culminated (more or less) with his departure from No. 10 and replacement as prime minister by David Lloyd George in December 1916, in the middle (or close enough) of World War One.
BTW (and FYI) Lloyd George told his side of that year's cabinet crisis to his secretary & mistress, Frances Stevenson, who wrote about it in her diary, which I've recently read, in AJP Taylor's edited version.
And now here we are, 105 years later, with another PM in crisis, in the midst of another world crisis, with very serious life-and-death business being semi-comically intertwined with a Grade B soap opera.
Are we heading then for a 1992 result or a 2010 in reverse? I still think it's going to be difficult for Labour to form the next government but not impossible.
Once you start looking at the constituency by constituency situation, from the perspective of the labour party the mountain to climb is huge, almost insurmountable. All the problems that existed before (the impossibility of reconciling the interests of its metropolitan radical supporters and its traditional declining base) still exist. One of the problems is that, despite his popular appeal as a sensible and serious chap; Starmer doesn't actually have an answer to these existential problems.
The changes to the Shadow Cabinet are partly an answer to that. Don't underestimate them. It's not particularly 'woke', for one thing (I don't think you like wokeness). But more importantly, it's full of people who are not 'metropolitan radical supporters', but northern MPs.
Reeves, Philipson, Rayner, Cooper, Nandy, Miliband, Powell, for example. They are all in a position, both geographically and politically, to appeal to the traditional Labour base as well as its urban supporters.
IMHO the situation is as before with regard to Labour winning outright (326 seats). They can't. But they have a nearly 50% chance of leading the next government.
They can. Never say never.
The swing required to overturn the Tory majority is so massive that if such a large swing happens, then an overcorrection is possible making a Labour majority possible.
Nonsense. The swing required to overturn the Tory majority is around 3%. The swing needed for a Labour majority is 10.5%.
There is night and day between the two.
Hence why a Labour Party with a wider perspective would have continued to let the Tories lose NS rather than throwing everything in to salvage it for them.
Obviously Labour people like me don't want the Tories to win NS - we'd rather you LDs win. But it's not as straightforward as you make out. Labour was second last time - it's not like Chesham and Amersham, where we were nowhere.
If I lived in NS, I'd be struggling. I don't want the Tories to win, but could I vote LD or would I stick with Labour? You won't agree with this, but I'm really struggling to find any good reason for voting LD - I've no idea what they stand for these days (other than PR, I think). All I know is that they're better than the Tories. But is that enough?
Labour majority looks vanishingly unlikely
This isn't aimed at you but that's a ridiculous remark. We are witnessing a significant, many would say seismic, shift in public opinion. To go from tory leads to neck-and-neck and now with Labour leads of c. 8% two and a half years out from the next General Election means that anything is possible.
They could just as easily win a landslide. I'll go further. If the tories keep Boris Johnson then 2024 will eclipse 1997. Why? Because Johnson is 1000x more inept and sleazy than John Major and the circumstances in the country are 1000x worse.
For goodness sake even Ed Miliband and Kinnock managed 10%+ leads midterm, Starmer cannot even get that yet even with Opinium tonight. Blair was over 20% ahead pre 1997
Just shows even lawmakers dont rate covid enough to keep to the rules they make about it. Get rid of the rules , its an illness like flu
Covid like flu? Either you are bonkers, or the whole world is bonkers because of its over-reaction. I know which I think.
well it is . The fatality rate is no higher and flu is killing as many people as covid. And if we are going to personally insult then to me it is bonkers to destroy education, wreck the economy and peoples businesses and jobs , create untold loneliness and environmental mess from masks for the sake of not letting the NHS get a bit stretched .That to me is bonkers
I have commented in this story. From what I have been told - social quiz, alcohol being drunk, lots of people together at the office (teams of 6, up to 24 in one room) - it's a clear breach of the govt's guidance and a potential breach of the law, including by the PM
Holding a zoom quiz where some people who worked together all day, quizzed together? Really? Very thin now.
Pictures of an absolutely shit looking party where the highlight was a Zoom quiz are just what the PM could do with. Though it's a detail and the narrative has been set running, so how many people are going to pay attention to this I'm not sure. He could probably have done with this being the front page when the "party" story broke, as the lack of pictures allowed people's imaginations to run wild with what might have gone on but probably didn't.
Yes, the thing about a quantum party is that it can be anything. Once again the never explain, never apologise attitude of the government has hurt them.
That's why I think Boris has got several months left because I think Sunak et al will want Covid dealt with (certainly this latest wave) and for the country to be in the warm sunlight of summer, before they'd want to take over.
Boris is finished but he's not going anywhere for a good few months (sorry Boris heaters)
Are Boris heaters the latest carbon zero wheeze?
They will produce plenty of hot air, but who knows where it will blow?
He's not convection politician for sure.
AFAIK, Boris has no convictions. But he’s wanted for questioning…
Lining up to oppose a popular policy sounds like the perfect response to plummeting in the polls.
Superficially popular. If it was legitimately popular people would have been voluntarily wearing masks etc without requiring a mandate to go in.
Many things are superficially popular until they get announced at which point they become unpopular - the NI Tax Rise earlier this year was another example. It was superficially popular in polls when it was hypothetical, but once it became policy it was unpopular.
yes funny how the tories dropped in the opinion polls just after they announced the mask mandate if mask wearing is so popular.
Mask wearing isn’t popular. It’s just less popular than the consequences of not mandating it when it’s obviously needed. So the longer delayed, the worse the poll hit - because you lose the anti-science brigade (who you would always lose at that point) but you also lose the support of those frightened by the period of inaction and the prospect of longer, more severe measures than would otherwise have been needed.
a source claimed: “It was just part of the culture. The PM turned a blind eye. He seemed totally comfortable with gatherings.”
This I think is the truth of the matter and what I have been suggesting. All those people were working long hours day in day out, pubs shut etc and a culture built up with boozing in the office. And Boris just gave them the nudge nudge wink wink that they were doing a jolly good job and I never saw nufffting. And then the same with the Christmas party.
And that is why he is totally screwed. If he sacks everybody, they say the boss said it was ok.
Lining up to oppose a popular policy sounds like the perfect response to plummeting in the polls.
Superficially popular. If it was legitimately popular people would have been voluntarily wearing masks etc without requiring a mandate to go in.
Many things are superficially popular until they get announced at which point they become unpopular - the NI Tax Rise earlier this year was another example. It was superficially popular in polls when it was hypothetical, but once it became policy it was unpopular.
Mask wearing, like taxation, requires most people to participate to be useful. Leaving it to individuals to act voluntarily doesn’t work,
So says an authoritarian who wants to dictate to others what to do.
Mask wearing, if you wear a proper FFP3 mask, works individually.
And besides communal voluntary mask wearing has been much higher in many parts of the world, eg 'blue' cities and states in America where the mask is not legally required but people have chosen to wear it in a way that people in this country haven't.
a source claimed: “It was just part of the culture. The PM turned a blind eye. He seemed totally comfortable with gatherings.”
This I think is the truth of the matter and what I have been suggesting. All those people were working long hours day in day out, pubs shut etc and a culture built up with boozing in the office. And Boris just gave them the nudge nudge wink wink that they were doing a jolly good job and I never saw nufffting. And then the same with the Christmas party.
And that is why he is totally screwed. If he sacks everybody, they say the boss said it was ok.
You could still work in the office with others even during lockdown if doing essential work
Are we heading then for a 1992 result or a 2010 in reverse? I still think it's going to be difficult for Labour to form the next government but not impossible.
Once you start looking at the constituency by constituency situation, from the perspective of the labour party the mountain to climb is huge, almost insurmountable. All the problems that existed before (the impossibility of reconciling the interests of its metropolitan radical supporters and its traditional declining base) still exist. One of the problems is that, despite his popular appeal as a sensible and serious chap; Starmer doesn't actually have an answer to these existential problems.
The changes to the Shadow Cabinet are partly an answer to that. Don't underestimate them. It's not particularly 'woke', for one thing (I don't think you like wokeness). But more importantly, it's full of people who are not 'metropolitan radical supporters', but northern MPs.
Reeves, Philipson, Rayner, Cooper, Nandy, Miliband, Powell, for example. They are all in a position, both geographically and politically, to appeal to the traditional Labour base as well as its urban supporters.
IMHO the situation is as before with regard to Labour winning outright (326 seats). They can't. But they have a nearly 50% chance of leading the next government.
They can. Never say never.
The swing required to overturn the Tory majority is so massive that if such a large swing happens, then an overcorrection is possible making a Labour majority possible.
Nonsense. The swing required to overturn the Tory majority is around 3%. The swing needed for a Labour majority is 10.5%.
There is night and day between the two.
Hence why a Labour Party with a wider perspective would have continued to let the Tories lose NS rather than throwing everything in to salvage it for them.
Obviously Labour people like me don't want the Tories to win NS - we'd rather you LDs win. But it's not as straightforward as you make out. Labour was second last time - it's not like Chesham and Amersham, where we were nowhere.
If I lived in NS, I'd be struggling. I don't want the Tories to win, but could I vote LD or would I stick with Labour? You won't agree with this, but I'm really struggling to find any good reason for voting LD - I've no idea what they stand for these days (other than PR, I think). All I know is that they're better than the Tories. But is that enough?
Labour majority looks vanishingly unlikely
This isn't aimed at you but that's a ridiculous remark. We are witnessing a significant, many would say seismic, shift in public opinion. To go from tory leads to neck-and-neck and now with Labour leads of c. 8% two and a half years out from the next General Election means that anything is possible.
They could just as easily win a landslide. I'll go further. If the tories keep Boris Johnson then 2024 will eclipse 1997. Why? Because Johnson is 1000x more inept and sleazy than John Major and the circumstances in the country are 1000x worse.
For goodness sake even Ed Miliband and Kinnock managed 10%+ leads midterm, Starmer cannot even get that yet even with Opinium tonight. Blair was over 20% ahead pre 1997
Face it, hun, this is different. Never known such cross-party, cross-social standing, cross-political-engagement consensus about anyone. Boris isn't just toast, he is in dangling from a lamp post territory.
a source claimed: “It was just part of the culture. The PM turned a blind eye. He seemed totally comfortable with gatherings.”
This I think is the truth of the matter and what I have been suggesting. All those people were working long hours day in day out, pubs shut etc and a culture built up with boozing in the office. And Boris just gave them the nudge nudge wink wink that they were doing a jolly good job and I never saw nufffting. And then the same with the Christmas party.
And that is why he is totally screwed. If he sacks everybody, they say the boss said it was ok.
You could still work in the office with others even during lockdown if doing essential work
Well and obviously staff just as #10, SAGE people etc were exempt for obvious reasons. As I say, I bet what happened was all those people usually go boozing after work, instead working long hours, it became takeaways, drink with dinner, then became a culture of drink everybody.....and spiralled from there.
Just shows even lawmakers dont rate covid enough to keep to the rules they make about it. Get rid of the rules , its an illness like flu
Covid like flu? Either you are bonkers, or the whole world is bonkers because of its over-reaction. I know which I think.
well it is . The fatality rate is no higher and flu is killing as many people as covid. And if we are going to personally insult then to me it is bonkers to destroy education, wreck the economy and peoples businesses and jobs , create untold loneliness and environmental mess from masks for the sake of not letting the NHS get a bit stretched .That to me is bonkers
a source claimed: “It was just part of the culture. The PM turned a blind eye. He seemed totally comfortable with gatherings.”
This I think is the truth of the matter and what I have been suggesting. All those people were working long hours day in day out, pubs shut etc and a culture built up with boozing in the office. And Boris just gave them the nudge nudge wink wink that they were doing a jolly good job and I never saw nufffting. And then the same with the Christmas party.
And that is why he is totally screwed. If he sacks everybody, they say the boss said it was ok.
You could still work in the office with others even during lockdown if doing essential work
Is it legal to post internal polling in the run up to an election?
Dont see why it needs to be illegal - If I lived in Oswestry and I posted that my family were going to vote tory 66% and Reclaim 33% would that not be internal polling?
"Nothing to see here!" cry the Bozo apologists in unison.
I mean I've already said he's finished. The ITV expose saw to that. But I genuinely can't see what's supposed to be so outrageous about the Mirror pic?
If anything it might back up the idea that he, personally, was sticking to lockdown rules?
I have commented in this story. From what I have been told - social quiz, alcohol being drunk, lots of people together at the office (teams of 6, up to 24 in one room) - it's a clear breach of the govt's guidance and a potential breach of the law, including by the PM
“Prime Minister, was anyone from outside your household present in person?” [incoherent burbling noises deleted for clarity] “….and the important thing is I can assure you that no rules were broken.”
Comments
Hung parliament with Con the largest party, but Lab+SNP would make a majority
CON: 286 MPs (-79)
LAB: 272 (+70)
SNP: 55 (+7)
LDEM: 13 (+2)
The PM would hold his constituency with but a 3pt majority.
Drilldown:
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2021/12/election-win-calculator https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1469788747357171724/photo/1
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-pictured-hosting-number-25675443?123 https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/1469788795813998595/photo/1
Many things are superficially popular until they get announced at which point they become unpopular - the NI Tax Rise earlier this year was another example. It was superficially popular in polls when it was hypothetical, but once it became policy it was unpopular.
He once campaigned with someone who wisely said "I think the people in this country have had enough of experts with organisations from acronyms saying that they know what is best and getting it consistently wrong."
Whatever happened to him? They both seem to have gone native now.
He was flanked by two members of top team, one wearing Santa hat, other draped in tinsel. At time, law banned mixing w/ other households for social reasons.
The quiz was supposed to be virtual - but many staff (one source says around 70) stayed in No 10 after work instead.
They huddled by computers, conferring on questions and knocking back fizz, wine and beer. Private office, policy unit & press office all had in-person teams.
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1469790409379434499
I think that sound is the bottom of the barrel being scraped.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/8e0d7456-5abf-11ec-a18c-c6d6c5855d8c?shareToken=421008fd35707b19afcae363ceacf81c
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1469790405449424903?s=20
May has allies?
Lots of people were working long hours, but only some followed the rules.
It really is the arrogance of power, the rules are for the little people, not the masters of the universe and world king.
I was too young to remember but I’d imagine that could impact support for a right of centre government at a time when the exchange rate was news
Though it's a detail and the narrative has been set running, so how many people are going to pay attention to this I'm not sure. He could probably have done with this being the front page when the "party" story broke, as the lack of pictures allowed people's imaginations to run wild with what might have gone on but probably didn't.
Leaving it to individuals to act voluntarily doesn’t work,
https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1469791515308396544
https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/1469788795813998595
Advisors advise, they are not meant to decide. Any Minister who wholesale abandons his judgement and lets the 'experts' decide isn't doing his job and may as well be replaced.
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1469792713461673992
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/8e0d7456-5abf-11ec-a18c-c6d6c5855d8c?shareToken=c2ac28615b74c1038fbfbfdafef0606b
The Mirror strikes me as a bit dickless these days
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/8e0d7456-5abf-11ec-a18c-c6d6c5855d8c?shareToken=c2ac28615b74c1038fbfbfdafef0606b
I have to say Boris doing a zoom quiz is a bit of a let down, I was hoping for him shagging an intern over the photocopier at the Christmas doo.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/8e0d7456-5abf-11ec-a18c-c6d6c5855d8c?shareToken=c2ac28615b74c1038fbfbfdafef0606b
BTW (and FYI) Lloyd George told his side of that year's cabinet crisis to his secretary & mistress, Frances Stevenson, who wrote about it in her diary, which I've recently read, in AJP Taylor's edited version.
And now here we are, 105 years later, with another PM in crisis, in the midst of another world crisis, with very serious life-and-death business being semi-comically intertwined with a Grade B soap opera.
What do you think they are supposed to do all day every day? Its probably more shocking that he was actually doing that in the first place.
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1469794027126022147
https://twitter.com/pippacrerar/status/1469790405449424903
https://twitter.com/pieterstreicher/status/1469743320092102659?s=21
If true, odds should be evens. But I’m sceptical. Putting the figures 39%/40% out there seems to suit both parties agendas right now.
Take with a pinch of salt, I recon.
(I’m here all night(
This I think is the truth of the matter and what I have been suggesting. All those people were working long hours day in day out, pubs shut etc and a culture built up with boozing in the office. And Boris just gave them the nudge nudge wink wink that they were doing a jolly good job and I never saw nufffting. And then the same with the Christmas party.
And that is why he is totally screwed. If he sacks everybody, they say the boss said it was ok.
But based on the thrust of the article it is entirely Tories giving information to Tim Shipman.
Mask wearing, if you wear a proper FFP3 mask, works individually.
And besides communal voluntary mask wearing has been much higher in many parts of the world, eg 'blue' cities and states in America where the mask is not legally required but people have chosen to wear it in a way that people in this country haven't.
So I'm guessing what is based on the pledge books and expectations.
Of course, the team captain should be able to expect the loyalty of their team – but it’s a two-way street.
The team deserve decisions made at the top to be well thought through and soundly based.
✍️ @TheSun👇
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/17013136/mark-harper-boris-johnson-trust/
Covid wasn't like flu pre-vaccines. Post-vaccines it is.
If anything it might back up the idea that he, personally, was sticking to lockdown rules?
[incoherent burbling noises deleted for clarity] “….and the important thing is I can assure you that no rules were broken.”
That’s how it carries on being a problem.
Cummings behind Sunak but Cummings also dislikes Triss allegedly and thinks she will implode.
Zahawi a good outside bet if Boris did go considered a dark horse candidate