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The week that the polls turned against the Tories – politicalbetting.com

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  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011
    geoffw said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    And this makes it doubly odd that - were there a vacancy for Conservative leader - contenders would need to be lockdown-sceptic to secure nominations.

    Taking the party away from public opinion; away from their own voters.


    https://twitter.com/pollymackenzie/status/1469781306376658947
    https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/1469775555931389960

    That's why I think Boris has got several months left because I think Sunak et al will want Covid dealt with (certainly this latest wave) and for the country to be in the warm sunlight of summer, before they'd want to take over.

    Boris is finished but he's not going anywhere for a good few months (sorry Boris heaters)
    Are Boris heaters the latest carbon zero wheeze?
    They will produce plenty of hot air, but who knows where it will blow?
    He's not convection politician for sure.

    He could trash the Economy 7 times over.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    PM caught on screen, sitting beneath portrait of Margaret Thatcher, as he hosted round of quiz on December 15 last year.

    He was flanked by two members of top team, one wearing Santa hat, other draped in tinsel. At time, law banned mixing w/ other households for social reasons.

    The quiz was supposed to be virtual - but many staff (one source says around 70) stayed in No 10 after work instead.

    They huddled by computers, conferring on questions and knocking back fizz, wine and beer. Private office, policy unit & press office all had in-person teams.


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1469790409379434499
  • RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    RobD said:


    Hosting a zoom Christmas quiz?

    look at the picture
    Yes, I see him on Zoom.
    A Zoom Christmas quiz that raised funds for charity?

    I think that sound is the bottom of the barrel being scraped.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    🚨 NEW: Allies of Theresa May are preparing to submit letters of no confidence in Boris Johnson unless he changes his ways. Some will join the Covid rebellion this week. The Mayite move is dubbed Operation Revenge by allies of Johnson

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/8e0d7456-5abf-11ec-a18c-c6d6c5855d8c?shareToken=421008fd35707b19afcae363ceacf81c
  • EXCLUSIVE: Boris Johnson accused of personally breaking Covid laws by hosting a Christmas quiz in No10 last year - and we've got pictures

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1469790405449424903?s=20
  • Scott_xP said:

    🚨 NEW: Allies of Theresa May are preparing to submit letters of no confidence in Boris Johnson unless he changes his ways. Some will join the Covid rebellion this week. The Mayite move is dubbed Operation Revenge by allies of Johnson

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/8e0d7456-5abf-11ec-a18c-c6d6c5855d8c?shareToken=421008fd35707b19afcae363ceacf81c

    I find that hard to believe.

    May has allies?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    EXCLUSIVE: Boris Johnson accused of personally breaking Covid laws by hosting a Christmas quiz in No10 last year - and we've got pictures

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1469790405449424903?s=20

    Holding a zoom quiz where some people who worked together all day, quizzed together? Really? Very thin now.
  • EXCLUSIVE: Boris Johnson accused of personally breaking Covid laws by hosting a Christmas quiz in No10 last year - and we've got pictures

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1469790405449424903?s=20

    Portrait of Margaret Thatcher is a nice touch.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    Scott_xP said:

    SUNDAY TELEGRAPH: PM faces Cabinet revolt over Covid rules #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1469786039258685442/photo/1

    Good.

    Plan B should have never happened and should be getting reversed. Never an excuse for 'Plan C' no matter what.

    Boris has gone native, its time for him to go.
    Native to what?
    Too readily listening to the scientists, civil servants, SAGE or whatever advisors are telling him to go with this bullshit.

    Advisors advise, but ministers decide, but he seems to have thrown his own judgment out the window and is letting the advisors decide for him. He needs to go.
    In other words, he should not listen to the experts because their view does not accord with yours?
    Yes.

    He once campaigned with someone who wisely said "I think the people in this country have had enough of experts with organisations from acronyms saying that they know what is best and getting it consistently wrong."

    Whatever happened to him? They both seem to have gone native now.
    Chris Witty or Philip Thompson, whom should I trust on Covid? I shall have to ponder that for a nanosecond...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,277
    edited December 2021
    Scott_xP said:

    🚨 NEW: Allies of Theresa May are preparing to submit letters of no confidence in Boris Johnson unless he changes his ways. Some will join the Covid rebellion this week. The Mayite move is dubbed Operation Revenge by allies of Johnson

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/8e0d7456-5abf-11ec-a18c-c6d6c5855d8c?shareToken=421008fd35707b19afcae363ceacf81c

    Mrs May has "allies" ? Who knew! Who knew!
  • EXCLUSIVE: Boris Johnson accused of personally breaking Covid laws by hosting a Christmas quiz in No10 last year - and we've got pictures

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1469790405449424903?s=20

    Just shows even lawmakers dont rate covid enough to keep to the rules they make about it. Get rid of the rules , its an illness like flu
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    ydoethur said:

    xxxxx5 said:

    I'm no statistic guru but when Blair won his landslide the swing required wasn't that big 1997 Kinnock had done a lot of the heavy lifting 1992. Also as I mentioned the feeling across the country was that Major was finished. Labour face a mountain to climb and need to win over the sort of voters who don't want free movement or an easier route across the channel for asylum seekers. I've no doubts after Boris self inflicted wounds that the electorate are willing to once again give Labour a hearing but what is the Labour offer?

    He got a very large swing though. Twice as large as any other swing since the war.

    Coincidentally that is also pretty much exactly the swing required for Labour to have a majority of one next time.
    He did - but he also did so on the back of a pact, if secret, with the LibDems, which influenced both the pitch and the geography of the national campaigns. Alongside Labour’s big swing, the LibDems chalked up a swathe of gains from the Tories to produce the largest third party contingent for a generation. The deal - revealed in Ashdown’s memoirs (which I doubt many Labour members troubled themselves with, but many LibDems read in shock) included places in government for leading LibDems - which Blair couldn’t deliver because the election campaign had overshot his expectations.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    Scott_xP said:

    SUNDAY TELEGRAPH: PM faces Cabinet revolt over Covid rules #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1469786039258685442/photo/1

    Good.

    Plan B should have never happened and should be getting reversed. Never an excuse for 'Plan C' no matter what.

    Boris has gone native, its time for him to go.
    Native to what?
    Too readily listening to the scientists, civil servants, SAGE or whatever advisors are telling him to go with this bullshit.

    Advisors advise, but ministers decide, but he seems to have thrown his own judgment out the window and is letting the advisors decide for him. He needs to go.
    In other words, he should not listen to the experts because their view does not accord with yours?
    Yes.

    He once campaigned with someone who wisely said "I think the people in this country have had enough of experts with organisations from acronyms saying that they know what is best and getting it consistently wrong."

    Whatever happened to him? They both seem to have gone native now.
    Chris Witty or Philip Thompson, whom should I trust on Covid? I shall have to ponder that for a nanosecond...
    A choice between Philip and Christina Pagel and nobody would hesitate for a second...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926

    EXCLUSIVE: Boris Johnson accused of personally breaking Covid laws by hosting a Christmas quiz in No10 last year - and we've got pictures

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1469790405449424903?s=20

    Just shows even lawmakers dont rate covid enough to keep to the rules they make about it. Get rid of the rules , its an illness like flu
    It certainly isn't an illness like the flu. What nonsense.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    BREAKING: Massive new headache for Boris Johnson. Backbench rebel commander ⁦@SteveBakerHW⁩ tells me he is taking over the Thatcherite pressure group Conservative Way Forward to fight for lower taxes and against Covid lockdowns https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-faces-rebellion-from-60-tories-as-omi-shambles-rolls-on-b3f5lnk9f
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    For a bit of context, these are the lowpoints for past governments based on the Wikipedia averaged wiggly lines;

    Thatcher 79-83: 28 % about Christmas 1981 (Alliance surge)
    Thatcher 83-87: 30 % about summer '85 (classic midterm?)
    Thatcher/Major 87-92: 33% in spring 1990 (Poll Tax bills landing- funnily enough, the Conservatives recovered over the summer before falling back again in the autumn)
    Major 92-97: 24% in summer '95
    Blair 97-01:38% in September 2000 (fuel crisis)
    Blair 01-05: 33% in June 2004 (Euro elections- UKIP effect?)
    Blair/Brown 05-10: 23% in June 2009 (Euro elections on top of credit crunch)
    Cameron 10-15: 29% in May 2013 (mid term? UKIP were doing well then for some reason)
    Cameron/May 15-17: 34% in June 2016 (UKIP surge linked to the referendum)
    May/Johnson 17-19: 20% in June 2019 (everything was going mad)

    I think the moral is that 32% isn't that bad... yet. On the other hand, the Conservatives have hoovered up the Brexity vote, so there's less opportunity for recovery.

    Wasn’t summer ‘85 the dollar parity with the plaza accord in September?

    I was too young to remember but I’d imagine that could impact support for a right of centre government at a time when the exchange rate was news
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Scott_xP said:

    It would appear the Sunday Mirror have a story...

    Crerar was very uneasy being questioned about the further revelations to come - having blurted out that there likely would be some on Newsnight. It wasn’t clear at the time whether she was trying to backtrack from speculation or trying to avoid revealing what they would be ahead of time. Hopefully the latter.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,277

    EXCLUSIVE: Boris Johnson accused of personally breaking Covid laws by hosting a Christmas quiz in No10 last year - and we've got pictures

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1469790405449424903?s=20

    I may have had a few but Boris Johnson sitting at a table looking at a computer screen with the Iron Lady taking prime position in the background doesn't appear to be a national scandal to me?
  • Polruan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    SUNDAY TELEGRAPH: PM faces Cabinet revolt over Covid rules #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1469786039258685442/photo/1

    Lining up to oppose a popular policy sounds like the perfect response to plummeting in the polls.
    Superficially popular. If it was legitimately popular people would have been voluntarily wearing masks etc without requiring a mandate to go in.

    Many things are superficially popular until they get announced at which point they become unpopular - the NI Tax Rise earlier this year was another example. It was superficially popular in polls when it was hypothetical, but once it became policy it was unpopular.
    yes funny how the tories dropped in the opinion polls just after they announced the mask mandate if mask wearing is so popular.
  • The picture of the PM "partying" looks like what I was doing in lockdown.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    Scott_xP said:

    PM caught on screen, sitting beneath portrait of Margaret Thatcher, as he hosted round of quiz on December 15 last year.

    He was flanked by two members of top team, one wearing Santa hat, other draped in tinsel. At time, law banned mixing w/ other households for social reasons.

    The quiz was supposed to be virtual - but many staff (one source says around 70) stayed in No 10 after work instead.

    They huddled by computers, conferring on questions and knocking back fizz, wine and beer. Private office, policy unit & press office all had in-person teams.


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1469790409379434499

    Yeah, but no twiglets so it wasn't a party...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926

    Polruan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    SUNDAY TELEGRAPH: PM faces Cabinet revolt over Covid rules #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1469786039258685442/photo/1

    Lining up to oppose a popular policy sounds like the perfect response to plummeting in the polls.
    Superficially popular. If it was legitimately popular people would have been voluntarily wearing masks etc without requiring a mandate to go in.

    Many things are superficially popular until they get announced at which point they become unpopular - the NI Tax Rise earlier this year was another example. It was superficially popular in polls when it was hypothetical, but once it became policy it was unpopular.
    yes funny how the tories dropped in the opinion polls just after they announced the mask mandate if mask wearing is so popular.
    You might have noticed there have been a few other stories in the press recently.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Historians, political scientists, and psychoanalysts would like to thank Boris Johnson for opening up a rich mine of material for books, papers and biographies.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    edited December 2021

    EXCLUSIVE: Boris Johnson accused of personally breaking Covid laws by hosting a Christmas quiz in No10 last year - and we've got pictures

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1469790405449424903?s=20

    Holding a zoom quiz where some people who worked together all day, quizzed together? Really? Very thin now.
    Pictures of an absolutely shit looking party where the highlight was a Zoom quiz are just what the PM could do with.
    Though it's a detail and the narrative has been set running, so how many people are going to pay attention to this I'm not sure. He could probably have done with this being the front page when the "party" story broke, as the lack of pictures allowed people's imaginations to run wild with what might have gone on but probably didn't.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Polruan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    SUNDAY TELEGRAPH: PM faces Cabinet revolt over Covid rules #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1469786039258685442/photo/1

    Lining up to oppose a popular policy sounds like the perfect response to plummeting in the polls.
    Superficially popular. If it was legitimately popular people would have been voluntarily wearing masks etc without requiring a mandate to go in.

    Many things are superficially popular until they get announced at which point they become unpopular - the NI Tax Rise earlier this year was another example. It was superficially popular in polls when it was hypothetical, but once it became policy it was unpopular.
    Mask wearing, like taxation, requires most people to participate to be useful.
    Leaving it to individuals to act voluntarily doesn’t work,
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    I have commented in this story. From what I have been told - social quiz, alcohol being drunk, lots of people together at the office (teams of 6, up to 24 in one room) - it's a clear breach of the govt's guidance and a potential breach of the law, including by the PM

    https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1469791515308396544
    https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/1469788795813998595
  • Scott_xP said:

    SUNDAY TELEGRAPH: PM faces Cabinet revolt over Covid rules #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1469786039258685442/photo/1

    Good.

    Plan B should have never happened and should be getting reversed. Never an excuse for 'Plan C' no matter what.

    Boris has gone native, its time for him to go.
    Native to what?
    Too readily listening to the scientists, civil servants, SAGE or whatever advisors are telling him to go with this bullshit.

    Advisors advise, but ministers decide, but he seems to have thrown his own judgment out the window and is letting the advisors decide for him. He needs to go.
    In other words, he should not listen to the experts because their view does not accord with yours?
    Yes.

    He once campaigned with someone who wisely said "I think the people in this country have had enough of experts with organisations from acronyms saying that they know what is best and getting it consistently wrong."

    Whatever happened to him? They both seem to have gone native now.
    Chris Witty or Philip Thompson, whom should I trust on Covid? I shall have to ponder that for a nanosecond...
    Who elected Chris Whitty? How do we vote to get rid of him?

    Advisors advise, they are not meant to decide. Any Minister who wholesale abandons his judgement and lets the 'experts' decide isn't doing his job and may as well be replaced.
  • I see that some people on PB still have not learned the basic rule of politics that "Perception is reality"
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    At the time London was in tier 2 restrictions which banned any social gathering indoors of more than two people. At the time, Covid cases were soaring. On December 15 last year, 459 people died from coronavirus, while another 33,828 were infected.
    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1469792713461673992
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    edited December 2021
    Disgruntled red wall Tories are threatening to run as independents at the next election because they are so annoyed at the mess in No 10

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/8e0d7456-5abf-11ec-a18c-c6d6c5855d8c?shareToken=c2ac28615b74c1038fbfbfdafef0606b
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    GIN1138 said:

    EXCLUSIVE: Boris Johnson accused of personally breaking Covid laws by hosting a Christmas quiz in No10 last year - and we've got pictures

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1469790405449424903?s=20

    I may have had a few but Boris Johnson sitting at a table looking at a computer screen with the Iron Lady taking prime position in the background doesn't appear to be a national scandal to me?
    Plus if it's a quiz why is the woman on the right allowed to have a laptop open?

    The Mirror strikes me as a bit dickless these days
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Yes, if this Mirror story is all that is left, then it’s a misstep - unless it can be linked to something the clown has specially tried to deny.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    I see that some people on PB still have not learned the basic rule of politics that "Perception is reality"

    It’s not exactly a photo of Johnson in a room with 30-40 people all quaffing champagne though, is it? Just assertions of groups of people.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    Scott_xP said:

    Disgruntled red wall Tories are threatening to run as independents at the next election because they are so annoyed at the mess in No 10

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/8e0d7456-5abf-11ec-a18c-c6d6c5855d8c?shareToken=c2ac28615b74c1038fbfbfdafef0606b

    Well they will lose then given there will also be an official Tory candidate
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    🚨 Claims Boris Johnson is “in denial” about the crisis he is facing. “He keeps saying ‘It will all blow over’” says someone who spoke to him this week

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/8e0d7456-5abf-11ec-a18c-c6d6c5855d8c?shareToken=c2ac28615b74c1038fbfbfdafef0606b
  • RobD said:

    EXCLUSIVE: Boris Johnson accused of personally breaking Covid laws by hosting a Christmas quiz in No10 last year - and we've got pictures

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1469790405449424903?s=20

    Just shows even lawmakers dont rate covid enough to keep to the rules they make about it. Get rid of the rules , its an illness like flu
    It certainly isn't an illness like the flu. What nonsense.
    It is post-vaccines.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,717
    Charles said:

    For a bit of context, these are the lowpoints for past governments based on the Wikipedia averaged wiggly lines;

    Thatcher 79-83: 28 % about Christmas 1981 (Alliance surge)
    Thatcher 83-87: 30 % about summer '85 (classic midterm?)
    Thatcher/Major 87-92: 33% in spring 1990 (Poll Tax bills landing- funnily enough, the Conservatives recovered over the summer before falling back again in the autumn)
    Major 92-97: 24% in summer '95
    Blair 97-01:38% in September 2000 (fuel crisis)
    Blair 01-05: 33% in June 2004 (Euro elections- UKIP effect?)
    Blair/Brown 05-10: 23% in June 2009 (Euro elections on top of credit crunch)
    Cameron 10-15: 29% in May 2013 (mid term? UKIP were doing well then for some reason)
    Cameron/May 15-17: 34% in June 2016 (UKIP surge linked to the referendum)
    May/Johnson 17-19: 20% in June 2019 (everything was going mad)

    I think the moral is that 32% isn't that bad... yet. On the other hand, the Conservatives have hoovered up the Brexity vote, so there's less opportunity for recovery.

    Wasn’t summer ‘85 the dollar parity with the plaza accord in September?

    I was too young to remember but I’d imagine that could impact support for a right of centre government at a time when the exchange rate was news
    There was a little contretemps with the coal miners.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918

    Scott_xP said:

    SUNDAY TELEGRAPH: PM faces Cabinet revolt over Covid rules #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1469786039258685442/photo/1

    Good.

    Plan B should have never happened and should be getting reversed. Never an excuse for 'Plan C' no matter what.

    Boris has gone native, its time for him to go.
    Plan B happened to avoid further lockdowns
  • The picture of the PM "partying" looks like what I was doing in lockdown.

    I should point out that I spent none of lockdown under a portrait of Thatcher.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    IshmaelZ said:

    GIN1138 said:

    EXCLUSIVE: Boris Johnson accused of personally breaking Covid laws by hosting a Christmas quiz in No10 last year - and we've got pictures

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1469790405449424903?s=20

    I may have had a few but Boris Johnson sitting at a table looking at a computer screen with the Iron Lady taking prime position in the background doesn't appear to be a national scandal to me?
    Plus if it's a quiz why is the woman on the right allowed to have a laptop open?

    The Mirror strikes me as a bit dickless these days
    She’s probably keeping the scores, as I did on a zoom quiz in lockdown.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375
    edited December 2021

    EXCLUSIVE: Boris Johnson accused of personally breaking Covid laws by hosting a Christmas quiz in No10 last year - and we've got pictures

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1469790405449424903?s=20

    Just shows even lawmakers dont rate covid enough to keep to the rules they make about it. Get rid of the rules , its an illness like flu
    Covid like flu? Either you are bonkers, or the whole world is bonkers because of its over-reaction. I know which I think.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    Is the disingenuous fat fornicator toast now?
  • The only way for Boris to hang on and win again would be to start publicly saying he is ignoring sage and lockdown extremists and say all restrictions are being lifted - he has about until the end of Jan I think to do that

    What on earth makes you think that would improve his ratings? Quite the opposite, as all the relevant opinion polling confirms.

    I accept you have sincere views on the approach to covid but public opinion is not with you.
    just go into any Macdonalds or a pub and see how popular restrictions are in reality (not some opinion poll that can easiliy be manipulated or people feeling they have to say something virtuous
  • Gone in the morning....goooonnne in the morrrrrnnning....he'll be gone in the morrrrnnnnning....

    I have to say Boris doing a zoom quiz is a bit of a let down, I was hoping for him shagging an intern over the photocopier at the Christmas doo.
  • Internal canvassing data shows the Liberal Democrats on 39 per cent in North Shropshire and the Tories on 40 per cent with four days to go

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/8e0d7456-5abf-11ec-a18c-c6d6c5855d8c?shareToken=c2ac28615b74c1038fbfbfdafef0606b
  • Am right now awaiting delivery (delayed) of my newly-acquired old copy of the correspondence of Herbert Asquith to Venetia Stanley. Which culminated (more or less) with his departure from No. 10 and replacement as prime minister by David Lloyd George in December 1916, in the middle (or close enough) of World War One.

    BTW (and FYI) Lloyd George told his side of that year's cabinet crisis to his secretary & mistress, Frances Stevenson, who wrote about it in her diary, which I've recently read, in AJP Taylor's edited version.

    And now here we are, 105 years later, with another PM in crisis, in the midst of another world crisis, with very serious life-and-death business being semi-comically intertwined with a Grade B soap opera.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    The date story with Carrie looks like a transparent attempt to illicit sympathy for the PM by the Sun to me.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    Heathener said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    algarkirk said:

    darkage said:

    xxxxx5 said:

    Are we heading then for a 1992 result or a 2010 in reverse? I still think it's going to be difficult for Labour to form the next government but not impossible.

    Once you start looking at the constituency by constituency situation, from the perspective of the labour party the mountain to climb is huge, almost insurmountable. All the problems that existed before (the impossibility of reconciling the interests of its metropolitan radical supporters and its traditional declining base) still exist. One of the problems is that, despite his popular appeal as a sensible and serious chap; Starmer doesn't actually have an answer to these existential problems.
    The changes to the Shadow Cabinet are partly an answer to that. Don't underestimate them. It's not particularly 'woke', for one thing (I don't think you like wokeness). But more importantly, it's full of people who are not 'metropolitan radical supporters', but northern MPs.

    Reeves, Philipson, Rayner, Cooper, Nandy, Miliband, Powell, for example. They are all in a position, both geographically and politically, to appeal to the traditional Labour base as well as its urban supporters.
    IMHO the situation is as before with regard to Labour winning outright (326 seats). They can't. But they have a nearly 50% chance of leading the next government.

    They can. Never say never.

    The swing required to overturn the Tory majority is so massive that if such a large swing happens, then an overcorrection is possible making a Labour majority possible.
    Nonsense. The swing required to overturn the Tory majority is around 3%. The swing needed for a Labour majority is 10.5%.

    There is night and day between the two.
    Hence why a Labour Party with a wider perspective would have continued to let the Tories lose NS rather than throwing everything in to salvage it for them.
    Obviously Labour people like me don't want the Tories to win NS - we'd rather you LDs win. But it's not as straightforward as you make out. Labour was second last time - it's not like Chesham and Amersham, where we were nowhere.

    If I lived in NS, I'd be struggling. I don't want the Tories to win, but could I vote LD or would I stick with Labour? You won't agree with this, but I'm really struggling to find any good reason for voting LD - I've no idea what they stand for these days (other than PR, I think). All I know is that they're better than the Tories. But is that enough?
    Labour majority looks vanishingly unlikely
    This isn't aimed at you but that's a ridiculous remark. We are witnessing a significant, many would say seismic, shift in public opinion. To go from tory leads to neck-and-neck and now with Labour leads of c. 8% two and a half years out from the next General Election means that anything is possible.

    They could just as easily win a landslide. I'll go further. If the tories keep Boris Johnson then 2024 will eclipse 1997. Why? Because Johnson is 1000x more inept and sleazy than John Major and the circumstances in the country are 1000x worse.
    For goodness sake even Ed Miliband and Kinnock managed 10%+ leads midterm, Starmer cannot even get that yet even with Opinium tonight. Blair was over 20% ahead pre 1997
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited December 2021
    Mirror story is a bit rubbish in the respect of criticism such as "which Mr Johnson appeared to have breached by mixing with the aides."

    What do you think they are supposed to do all day every day? Its probably more shocking that he was actually doing that in the first place.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918

    Internal canvassing data shows the Liberal Democrats on 39 per cent in North Shropshire and the Tories on 40 per cent with four days to go

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/8e0d7456-5abf-11ec-a18c-c6d6c5855d8c?shareToken=c2ac28615b74c1038fbfbfdafef0606b

    Which would be good for Boris if true given the LDs are now favourites
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,813
    edited December 2021

    EXCLUSIVE: Boris Johnson accused of personally breaking Covid laws by hosting a Christmas quiz in No10 last year - and we've got pictures

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1469790405449424903?s=20

    Just shows even lawmakers dont rate covid enough to keep to the rules they make about it. Get rid of the rules , its an illness like flu
    Covid like flu? Either you are bonkers, or the whole world is bonkers because of its over-reaction. I know which I think.
    well it is . The fatality rate is no higher and flu is killing as many people as covid. And if we are going to personally insult then to me it is bonkers to destroy education, wreck the economy and peoples businesses and jobs , create untold loneliness and environmental mess from masks for the sake of not letting the NHS get a bit stretched .That to me is bonkers
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    several Tory MPs said privately last week that Johnson’s position was untenable if photos came to light of him at lockdown parties

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1469794027126022147
    https://twitter.com/pippacrerar/status/1469790405449424903
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    Scott_xP said:

    I have commented in this story. From what I have been told - social quiz, alcohol being drunk, lots of people together at the office (teams of 6, up to 24 in one room) - it's a clear breach of the govt's guidance and a potential breach of the law, including by the PM

    https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1469791515308396544
    https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/1469788795813998595

    PM holds quiz via Zoom, yawn
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986
    New contender for most optimistic SA Covid Twitter thread of the evening. He’s been the most dovish commentator though, so worth treating with care:

    https://twitter.com/pieterstreicher/status/1469743320092102659?s=21

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011
    "Nothing to see here!" cry the Bozo apologists in unison.
  • Scott_xP said:

    several Tory MPs said privately last week that Johnson’s position was untenable if photos came to light of him at lockdown parties

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1469794027126022147
    https://twitter.com/pippacrerar/status/1469790405449424903

    It's such weak sauce.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited December 2021

    Internal canvassing data shows the Liberal Democrats on 39 per cent in North Shropshire and the Tories on 40 per cent with four days to go

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/8e0d7456-5abf-11ec-a18c-c6d6c5855d8c?shareToken=c2ac28615b74c1038fbfbfdafef0606b

    Whose internal canvassing?

    If true, odds should be evens. But I’m sceptical. Putting the figures 39%/40% out there seems to suit both parties agendas right now.

    Take with a pinch of salt, I recon.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    EXCLUSIVE: Boris Johnson accused of personally breaking Covid laws by hosting a Christmas quiz in No10 last year - and we've got pictures

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1469790405449424903?s=20

    Holding a zoom quiz where some people who worked together all day, quizzed together? Really? Very thin now.
    Pictures of an absolutely shit looking party where the highlight was a Zoom quiz are just what the PM could do with.
    Though it's a detail and the narrative has been set running, so how many people are going to pay attention to this I'm not sure. He could probably have done with this being the front page when the "party" story broke, as the lack of pictures allowed people's imaginations to run wild with what might have gone on but probably didn't.
    Yes, the thing about a quantum party is that it can be anything. Once again the never explain, never apologise attitude of the government has hurt them.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    geoffw said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    And this makes it doubly odd that - were there a vacancy for Conservative leader - contenders would need to be lockdown-sceptic to secure nominations.

    Taking the party away from public opinion; away from their own voters.


    https://twitter.com/pollymackenzie/status/1469781306376658947
    https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/1469775555931389960

    That's why I think Boris has got several months left because I think Sunak et al will want Covid dealt with (certainly this latest wave) and for the country to be in the warm sunlight of summer, before they'd want to take over.

    Boris is finished but he's not going anywhere for a good few months (sorry Boris heaters)
    Are Boris heaters the latest carbon zero wheeze?
    They will produce plenty of hot air, but who knows where it will blow?
    He's not convection politician for sure.

    AFAIK, Boris has no convictions. But he’s wanted for questioning…

    (I’m here all night(
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    murali_s said:

    Is the disingenuous fat fornicator toast now?

    Still under the grill, I suspect.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    Polruan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    SUNDAY TELEGRAPH: PM faces Cabinet revolt over Covid rules #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1469786039258685442/photo/1

    Lining up to oppose a popular policy sounds like the perfect response to plummeting in the polls.
    Superficially popular. If it was legitimately popular people would have been voluntarily wearing masks etc without requiring a mandate to go in.

    Many things are superficially popular until they get announced at which point they become unpopular - the NI Tax Rise earlier this year was another example. It was superficially popular in polls when it was hypothetical, but once it became policy it was unpopular.
    yes funny how the tories dropped in the opinion polls just after they announced the mask mandate if mask wearing is so popular.
    Mask wearing isn’t popular. It’s just less popular than the consequences of not mandating it when it’s obviously needed. So the longer delayed, the worse the poll hit - because you lose the anti-science brigade (who you would always lose at that point) but you also lose the support of those frightened by the period of inaction and the prospect of longer, more severe measures than would otherwise have been needed.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    Scott_xP said:
    I absolutely love the idea of Priti being leader of the Tories. Where do I sign up?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited December 2021
    a source claimed: “It was just part of the culture. The PM turned a blind eye. He seemed totally comfortable with gatherings.”

    This I think is the truth of the matter and what I have been suggesting. All those people were working long hours day in day out, pubs shut etc and a culture built up with boozing in the office. And Boris just gave them the nudge nudge wink wink that they were doing a jolly good job and I never saw nufffting. And then the same with the Christmas party.

    And that is why he is totally screwed. If he sacks everybody, they say the boss said it was ok.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,717

    Internal canvassing data shows the Liberal Democrats on 39 per cent in North Shropshire and the Tories on 40 per cent with four days to go

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/8e0d7456-5abf-11ec-a18c-c6d6c5855d8c?shareToken=c2ac28615b74c1038fbfbfdafef0606b

    Is it legal to post internal polling in the run up to an election?
  • ping said:

    Internal canvassing data shows the Liberal Democrats on 39 per cent in North Shropshire and the Tories on 40 per cent with four days to go

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/8e0d7456-5abf-11ec-a18c-c6d6c5855d8c?shareToken=c2ac28615b74c1038fbfbfdafef0606b

    Whose internal canvassing?

    If true, odds should be evens. But I’m sceptical. Putting the figures 39%/40% out there seems to suit both parties agendas right now.

    Take with a pinch of salt, I recon.
    The article doesn't make it clear whose internal polling it is.

    But based on the thrust of the article it is entirely Tories giving information to Tim Shipman.
  • Nigelb said:

    Polruan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    SUNDAY TELEGRAPH: PM faces Cabinet revolt over Covid rules #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1469786039258685442/photo/1

    Lining up to oppose a popular policy sounds like the perfect response to plummeting in the polls.
    Superficially popular. If it was legitimately popular people would have been voluntarily wearing masks etc without requiring a mandate to go in.

    Many things are superficially popular until they get announced at which point they become unpopular - the NI Tax Rise earlier this year was another example. It was superficially popular in polls when it was hypothetical, but once it became policy it was unpopular.
    Mask wearing, like taxation, requires most people to participate to be useful.
    Leaving it to individuals to act voluntarily doesn’t work,
    So says an authoritarian who wants to dictate to others what to do.

    Mask wearing, if you wear a proper FFP3 mask, works individually.

    And besides communal voluntary mask wearing has been much higher in many parts of the world, eg 'blue' cities and states in America where the mask is not legally required but people have chosen to wear it in a way that people in this country haven't.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    Scott_xP said:

    several Tory MPs said privately last week that Johnson’s position was untenable if photos came to light of him at lockdown parties

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1469794027126022147
    https://twitter.com/pippacrerar/status/1469790405449424903

    Sure, but he's been found at a Zoom quiz - not all out Gove.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918

    a source claimed: “It was just part of the culture. The PM turned a blind eye. He seemed totally comfortable with gatherings.”

    This I think is the truth of the matter and what I have been suggesting. All those people were working long hours day in day out, pubs shut etc and a culture built up with boozing in the office. And Boris just gave them the nudge nudge wink wink that they were doing a jolly good job and I never saw nufffting. And then the same with the Christmas party.

    And that is why he is totally screwed. If he sacks everybody, they say the boss said it was ok.

    You could still work in the office with others even during lockdown if doing essential work
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    algarkirk said:

    darkage said:

    xxxxx5 said:

    Are we heading then for a 1992 result or a 2010 in reverse? I still think it's going to be difficult for Labour to form the next government but not impossible.

    Once you start looking at the constituency by constituency situation, from the perspective of the labour party the mountain to climb is huge, almost insurmountable. All the problems that existed before (the impossibility of reconciling the interests of its metropolitan radical supporters and its traditional declining base) still exist. One of the problems is that, despite his popular appeal as a sensible and serious chap; Starmer doesn't actually have an answer to these existential problems.
    The changes to the Shadow Cabinet are partly an answer to that. Don't underestimate them. It's not particularly 'woke', for one thing (I don't think you like wokeness). But more importantly, it's full of people who are not 'metropolitan radical supporters', but northern MPs.

    Reeves, Philipson, Rayner, Cooper, Nandy, Miliband, Powell, for example. They are all in a position, both geographically and politically, to appeal to the traditional Labour base as well as its urban supporters.
    IMHO the situation is as before with regard to Labour winning outright (326 seats). They can't. But they have a nearly 50% chance of leading the next government.

    They can. Never say never.

    The swing required to overturn the Tory majority is so massive that if such a large swing happens, then an overcorrection is possible making a Labour majority possible.
    Nonsense. The swing required to overturn the Tory majority is around 3%. The swing needed for a Labour majority is 10.5%.

    There is night and day between the two.
    Hence why a Labour Party with a wider perspective would have continued to let the Tories lose NS rather than throwing everything in to salvage it for them.
    Obviously Labour people like me don't want the Tories to win NS - we'd rather you LDs win. But it's not as straightforward as you make out. Labour was second last time - it's not like Chesham and Amersham, where we were nowhere.

    If I lived in NS, I'd be struggling. I don't want the Tories to win, but could I vote LD or would I stick with Labour? You won't agree with this, but I'm really struggling to find any good reason for voting LD - I've no idea what they stand for these days (other than PR, I think). All I know is that they're better than the Tories. But is that enough?
    Labour majority looks vanishingly unlikely
    This isn't aimed at you but that's a ridiculous remark. We are witnessing a significant, many would say seismic, shift in public opinion. To go from tory leads to neck-and-neck and now with Labour leads of c. 8% two and a half years out from the next General Election means that anything is possible.

    They could just as easily win a landslide. I'll go further. If the tories keep Boris Johnson then 2024 will eclipse 1997. Why? Because Johnson is 1000x more inept and sleazy than John Major and the circumstances in the country are 1000x worse.
    For goodness sake even Ed Miliband and Kinnock managed 10%+ leads midterm, Starmer cannot even get that yet even with Opinium tonight. Blair was over 20% ahead pre 1997
    Face it, hun, this is different. Never known such cross-party, cross-social standing, cross-political-engagement consensus about anyone. Boris isn't just toast, he is in dangling from a lamp post territory.
  • Internal canvassing data shows the Liberal Democrats on 39 per cent in North Shropshire and the Tories on 40 per cent with four days to go

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/8e0d7456-5abf-11ec-a18c-c6d6c5855d8c?shareToken=c2ac28615b74c1038fbfbfdafef0606b

    Expectations management. Add 6% to the LDs and knock that off the Tories.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,630
    edited December 2021
    geoffw said:

    Internal canvassing data shows the Liberal Democrats on 39 per cent in North Shropshire and the Tories on 40 per cent with four days to go

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/8e0d7456-5abf-11ec-a18c-c6d6c5855d8c?shareToken=c2ac28615b74c1038fbfbfdafef0606b

    Is it legal to post internal polling in the run up to an election?
    It's not internal polling. It is canvassing data.

    So I'm guessing what is based on the pledge books and expectations.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Politics is a team effort.

    Of course, the team captain should be able to expect the loyalty of their team – but it’s a two-way street.

    The team deserve decisions made at the top to be well thought through and soundly based.


    ✍️ @TheSun👇

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/17013136/mark-harper-boris-johnson-trust/
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited December 2021
    HYUFD said:

    a source claimed: “It was just part of the culture. The PM turned a blind eye. He seemed totally comfortable with gatherings.”

    This I think is the truth of the matter and what I have been suggesting. All those people were working long hours day in day out, pubs shut etc and a culture built up with boozing in the office. And Boris just gave them the nudge nudge wink wink that they were doing a jolly good job and I never saw nufffting. And then the same with the Christmas party.

    And that is why he is totally screwed. If he sacks everybody, they say the boss said it was ok.

    You could still work in the office with others even during lockdown if doing essential work
    Well and obviously staff just as #10, SAGE people etc were exempt for obvious reasons. As I say, I bet what happened was all those people usually go boozing after work, instead working long hours, it became takeaways, drink with dinner, then became a culture of drink everybody.....and spiralled from there.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926

    EXCLUSIVE: Boris Johnson accused of personally breaking Covid laws by hosting a Christmas quiz in No10 last year - and we've got pictures

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1469790405449424903?s=20

    Just shows even lawmakers dont rate covid enough to keep to the rules they make about it. Get rid of the rules , its an illness like flu
    Covid like flu? Either you are bonkers, or the whole world is bonkers because of its over-reaction. I know which I think.
    well it is . The fatality rate is no higher and flu is killing as many people as covid. And if we are going to personally insult then to me it is bonkers to destroy education, wreck the economy and peoples businesses and jobs , create untold loneliness and environmental mess from masks for the sake of not letting the NHS get a bit stretched .That to me is bonkers
    Citation needed lol.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    HYUFD said:

    You could still work in the office with others even during lockdown if doing essential work

    How often does your essential office work include tinsel and a santa hat?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    HYUFD said:

    a source claimed: “It was just part of the culture. The PM turned a blind eye. He seemed totally comfortable with gatherings.”

    This I think is the truth of the matter and what I have been suggesting. All those people were working long hours day in day out, pubs shut etc and a culture built up with boozing in the office. And Boris just gave them the nudge nudge wink wink that they were doing a jolly good job and I never saw nufffting. And then the same with the Christmas party.

    And that is why he is totally screwed. If he sacks everybody, they say the boss said it was ok.

    You could still work in the office with others even during lockdown if doing essential work
    Secret Santa? Essential work my sharny ****.
  • geoffw said:

    Internal canvassing data shows the Liberal Democrats on 39 per cent in North Shropshire and the Tories on 40 per cent with four days to go

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/8e0d7456-5abf-11ec-a18c-c6d6c5855d8c?shareToken=c2ac28615b74c1038fbfbfdafef0606b

    Is it legal to post internal polling in the run up to an election?
    Dont see why it needs to be illegal - If I lived in Oswestry and I posted that my family were going to vote tory 66% and Reclaim 33% would that not be internal polling?
  • EXCLUSIVE: Boris Johnson accused of personally breaking Covid laws by hosting a Christmas quiz in No10 last year - and we've got pictures

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1469790405449424903?s=20

    Just shows even lawmakers dont rate covid enough to keep to the rules they make about it. Get rid of the rules , its an illness like flu
    Covid like flu? Either you are bonkers, or the whole world is bonkers because of its over-reaction. I know which I think.
    Post-vaccines the world is bonkers because of its over-reaction, yes.

    Covid wasn't like flu pre-vaccines. Post-vaccines it is.
  • Scott_xP said:

    HYUFD said:

    You could still work in the office with others even during lockdown if doing essential work

    How often does your essential office work include tinsel and a santa hat?
    For a lot of people, I'd imagine every December.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    Scott_xP said:

    HYUFD said:

    You could still work in the office with others even during lockdown if doing essential work

    How often does your essential office work include tinsel and a santa hat?
    LOL. Liar is toast now. Time to move to the Priti era. Sunlit uplands await! Let's do it!!!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188

    geoffw said:

    Internal canvassing data shows the Liberal Democrats on 39 per cent in North Shropshire and the Tories on 40 per cent with four days to go

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/8e0d7456-5abf-11ec-a18c-c6d6c5855d8c?shareToken=c2ac28615b74c1038fbfbfdafef0606b

    Is it legal to post internal polling in the run up to an election?
    It's not internal polling. It is canvassing data.

    So I'm guessing what is based on the pledge books and expectations.
    It sounds more or less in line - the real mystery is Labour list's figures. They look more made up than a Trafalgar poll to me.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,277

    "Nothing to see here!" cry the Bozo apologists in unison.

    I mean I've already said he's finished. The ITV expose saw to that. But I genuinely can't see what's supposed to be so outrageous about the Mirror pic?

    If anything it might back up the idea that he, personally, was sticking to lockdown rules?
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I have commented in this story. From what I have been told - social quiz, alcohol being drunk, lots of people together at the office (teams of 6, up to 24 in one room) - it's a clear breach of the govt's guidance and a potential breach of the law, including by the PM

    https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1469791515308396544
    https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/1469788795813998595

    PM holds quiz via Zoom, yawn
    “Prime Minister, was anyone from outside your household present in person?”
    [incoherent burbling noises deleted for clarity] “….and the important thing is I can assure you that no rules were broken.”

    That’s how it carries on being a problem.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    murali_s said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I absolutely love the idea of Priti being leader of the Tories. Where do I sign up?
    Matt Hancock talking up his prospects...to himself apparently.

    Cummings behind Sunak but Cummings also dislikes Triss allegedly and thinks she will implode.

    Zahawi a good outside bet if Boris did go considered a dark horse candidate
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    The only way for Boris to hang on and win again would be to start publicly saying he is ignoring sage and lockdown extremists and say all restrictions are being lifted - he has about until the end of Jan I think to do that

    What on earth makes you think that would improve his ratings? Quite the opposite, as all the relevant opinion polling confirms.

    I accept you have sincere views on the approach to covid but public opinion is not with you.
    just go into any Macdonalds or a pub and see how popular restrictions are in reality (not some opinion poll that can easiliy be manipulated or people feeling they have to say something virtuous
    Do you understand the term 'self-selection'?

    How do you explain this:

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/dec/01/uk-hospitality-firms-hit-by-christmas-party-cancellations-over-omicron-fears

    or this:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/covid-super-spreader-office-christmas-parties-abandoned-qjwnzxc2n

    or this:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/11/25/office-christmas-parties-risk-pub-bookings-struggle/

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    GIN1138 said:

    I mean I've already said he's finished. The ITV expose saw to that. But I genuinely can't see what's supposed to be so outrageous about the Mirror pic?

    If anything it might back up the idea that he, personally, was sticking to lockdown rules?


    At the time London was in tier 2 restrictions which banned any social gathering indoors of more than two people. At the time, Covid cases were soaring. On December 15 last year, 459 people died from coronavirus, while another 33,828 were infected.


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1469792713461673992
  • I see that some people on PB still have not learned the basic rule of politics that "Perception is reality"

    It’s not exactly a photo of Johnson in a room with 30-40 people all quaffing champagne though, is it? Just assertions of groups of people.
    That is the point - it does not need to be accurate, it just needs to reinforce the narrative. Most people do not care enough to fact check anything that confirms their prejudices.

    As long as the photo lets them ask "Who are those people near Boris?" then it feeds the narrative

    Also, no one is wearing a mask and this was at a time when masks were mandated as well.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    Scott_xP said:

    HYUFD said:

    You could still work in the office with others even during lockdown if doing essential work

    How often does your essential office work include tinsel and a santa hat?
    Relatively common around offices up and down the land.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    HYUFD said:

    a source claimed: “It was just part of the culture. The PM turned a blind eye. He seemed totally comfortable with gatherings.”

    This I think is the truth of the matter and what I have been suggesting. All those people were working long hours day in day out, pubs shut etc and a culture built up with boozing in the office. And Boris just gave them the nudge nudge wink wink that they were doing a jolly good job and I never saw nufffting. And then the same with the Christmas party.

    And that is why he is totally screwed. If he sacks everybody, they say the boss said it was ok.

    You could still work in the office with others even during lockdown if doing essential work
    Well and obviously staff just as #10, SAGE people etc were exempt for obvious reasons. As I say, I bet what happened was all those people usually go boozing after work, instead working long hours, it became takeaways, drink with dinner, then became a culture of drink everybody.....and spiralled from there.
    All fine then. Phew.

    In grown up land, "a culture of drink everybody" is deprecated. It really is. If you don't understand that, that says nothing about the real world.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    So, Johnson's career could be ended by him guesting to host a humorous quiz? Fair play to the writers for dropping that last ironic twist on us.
    https://twitter.com/nickjbarlow/status/1469795056416706562
  • GIN1138 said:

    "Nothing to see here!" cry the Bozo apologists in unison.

    I mean I've already said he's finished. The ITV expose saw to that. But I genuinely can't see what's supposed to be so outrageous about the Mirror pic?

    If anything it might back up the idea that he, personally, was sticking to lockdown rules?
    Boris Johnson repeatedly denies any parties took place in Downing Street and then if they did he had no knowledge of them then footage emerges of him being quiz master at one of these parties.
  • Polruan said:

    Polruan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    SUNDAY TELEGRAPH: PM faces Cabinet revolt over Covid rules #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1469786039258685442/photo/1

    Lining up to oppose a popular policy sounds like the perfect response to plummeting in the polls.
    Superficially popular. If it was legitimately popular people would have been voluntarily wearing masks etc without requiring a mandate to go in.

    Many things are superficially popular until they get announced at which point they become unpopular - the NI Tax Rise earlier this year was another example. It was superficially popular in polls when it was hypothetical, but once it became policy it was unpopular.
    yes funny how the tories dropped in the opinion polls just after they announced the mask mandate if mask wearing is so popular.
    Mask wearing isn’t popular. It’s just less popular than the consequences of not mandating it when it’s obviously needed. So the longer delayed, the worse the poll hit - because you lose the anti-science brigade (who you would always lose at that point) but you also lose the support of those frightened by the period of inaction and the prospect of longer, more severe measures than would otherwise have been needed.
    Given there is no proof masks work in the real world (beyond a lab or controlled setting) and a lot of evidence it makes no difference they are not the anti-science brigade by any means. Even if masks do somehow control the virus it is marginal and as everyone is going to get covid at some point it is nowhere near worth the cost in lost human social happiness
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited December 2021
    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    a source claimed: “It was just part of the culture. The PM turned a blind eye. He seemed totally comfortable with gatherings.”

    This I think is the truth of the matter and what I have been suggesting. All those people were working long hours day in day out, pubs shut etc and a culture built up with boozing in the office. And Boris just gave them the nudge nudge wink wink that they were doing a jolly good job and I never saw nufffting. And then the same with the Christmas party.

    And that is why he is totally screwed. If he sacks everybody, they say the boss said it was ok.

    You could still work in the office with others even during lockdown if doing essential work
    Well and obviously staff just as #10, SAGE people etc were exempt for obvious reasons. As I say, I bet what happened was all those people usually go boozing after work, instead working long hours, it became takeaways, drink with dinner, then became a culture of drink everybody.....and spiralled from there.
    All fine then. Phew.

    In grown up land, "a culture of drink everybody" is deprecated. It really is. If you don't understand that, that says nothing about the real world.
    That's not what I said....I said I bet that is how it started among those that do go drinking, and Boris encouraged it, or very least never discouraged people doing that.

    I would say I would say I would be more than slightly worried about people making important decision on the booze while doing that.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    SUNDAY EXPRESS: It’s make or break week #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1469797109520080902/photo/1
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Almost 75k people were fined for illegal parties/gatherings under Covid regs, while people in power apparently got off scot free. This is why people care. https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/over-70k-brits-fined-illegal-25651159?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926

    Polruan said:

    Polruan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    SUNDAY TELEGRAPH: PM faces Cabinet revolt over Covid rules #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1469786039258685442/photo/1

    Lining up to oppose a popular policy sounds like the perfect response to plummeting in the polls.
    Superficially popular. If it was legitimately popular people would have been voluntarily wearing masks etc without requiring a mandate to go in.

    Many things are superficially popular until they get announced at which point they become unpopular - the NI Tax Rise earlier this year was another example. It was superficially popular in polls when it was hypothetical, but once it became policy it was unpopular.
    yes funny how the tories dropped in the opinion polls just after they announced the mask mandate if mask wearing is so popular.
    Mask wearing isn’t popular. It’s just less popular than the consequences of not mandating it when it’s obviously needed. So the longer delayed, the worse the poll hit - because you lose the anti-science brigade (who you would always lose at that point) but you also lose the support of those frightened by the period of inaction and the prospect of longer, more severe measures than would otherwise have been needed.
    Given there is no proof masks work in the real world (beyond a lab or controlled setting) and a lot of evidence it makes no difference they are not the anti-science brigade by any means. Even if masks do somehow control the virus it is marginal and as everyone is going to get covid at some point it is nowhere near worth the cost in lost human social happiness
    Citation needed.
  • The only way for Boris to hang on and win again would be to start publicly saying he is ignoring sage and lockdown extremists and say all restrictions are being lifted - he has about until the end of Jan I think to do that

    What on earth makes you think that would improve his ratings? Quite the opposite, as all the relevant opinion polling confirms.

    I accept you have sincere views on the approach to covid but public opinion is not with you.
    just go into any Macdonalds or a pub and see how popular restrictions are in reality (not some opinion poll that can easiliy be manipulated or people feeling they have to say something virtuous
    Do you understand the term 'self-selection'?

    How do you explain this:

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/dec/01/uk-hospitality-firms-hit-by-christmas-party-cancellations-over-omicron-fears

    or this:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/covid-super-spreader-office-christmas-parties-abandoned-qjwnzxc2n

    or this:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/11/25/office-christmas-parties-risk-pub-bookings-struggle/

    Colin Wilde, the managing director of Castle Rock brewery in Nottingham, said he had had “a handful” of cancellations of Christmas parties and wedding celebrations booked for December at the 20 pubs the company operates across the east Midlands.

    The media exists to sell panic is how I'd explain that. A handful across 20 sites? So next to no impact then?

    Shame that a tiny minority felt they had to act like that, but hopefully it stay just a handful though no doubt the media would love to blow it up to being even more.

    Also from your link: Hugh Osmond, the founder of Punch Taverns, said: “We are seeing that some of the people in large organisations who organise bigger events are taking the cautious view because I guess they feel some overriding responsibility. We are not seeing that in young people.”

    Nothing to explain. People don't want to change, because they know there's no reason to do so.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802
    Scott_xP said:

    Politics is a team effort.

    Of course, the team captain should be able to expect the loyalty of their team – but it’s a two-way street.

    The team deserve decisions made at the top to be well thought through and soundly based.


    ✍️ @TheSun👇

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/17013136/mark-harper-boris-johnson-trust/

    Harper definitely making a pitch for the leadership. Happy I got on at 55!
This discussion has been closed.