Ironically the tiered system did the square root of fuck all in stopping covid.
I’ve long argued that as a response pre vaccines it was working in allowing opening up, without a massive increase in cases. Right up until the Kent, now alpha, variant hit. After that it was done, but by then the vaccines were rolling, so the lockdown was to buy time for jabs. And it worked.
The important question from a betting perspective on the next GE is this: how will the Conservative voting coalition be affected by Boris Johnson's replacement?
We know the Labour lead in the polls isn't due to very many (if any) direct Conservative > Labour switchers; instead, it's due to Conservative voters moving to DK/NOTA and some Lib Dem/Reform.
Will a new leader reunite them under his/her banner? Or will they show that Boris truly is the only leader who can reach voters that others can't touch?
Sunak loses the red wall voters I think, reasonably sure on that. Though he's probably the best leader to hold off the Lib Dems in the SE.
I'm not so sure. I think the Red Wall voters values have permanently shifted. It's more a case of a credible charismatic leader who channels them, which Boris could do because he'd backed Brexit all the way and has an unWokey banter about him, but others could do as well.
Sunak is quite egregiously wealthy though. That sounds petty but I do think he's even more divorced from every day life than Boris is
Very weird/sad watching Bayern Munich v Barcelona in an empty stadium.
Football without fans is rubbish and heartbreaking.
That's what you're going to get every Winter for the rest of your life with endless cyclical lockdowns. Merry Christmas.
If that is the case then the hospitality industry is well and truly fucked in the cities and towns.
In point of fact Covid restrictions can't keep going on forever because keeping whole segments of the economy and millions of workers on financial life support isn't something that's sustainable indefinitely - and then there's the fact that large segments of the population will undermine future stay at home orders by ignoring them. Not nearly everyone is terrified that each new variant is going to slaughter them, not nearly everyone thinks that the Government is worth listening to, and not nearly everyone thinks that a life of perma-lockdown is worth living, either.
As to what will actually be left of the hospitality and cultural sectors, by the time public non-cooperation with the rules and an ultra-infectious variant finally brings this misery to its (possibly calamitous) end, who can say?
Dominic "the police do not investigate crimes which happened in the past" Raab
A direct quote from the Met:
The Met said video footage obtained by ITV "does not provide evidence of a breach" of health regulations, adding: "The Metropolitan Police Service has received a significant amount of correspondence relating to allegations reported in the media that the Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) Regulations were breached at gatherings at No 10 Downing Street in November and December 2020.
"All this correspondence has been considered by detectives in detail, as well as footage published by ITV News. The correspondence and footage does not provide evidence of a breach of the Health Protection Regulations, but restates allegations made in the media. Based on the absence of evidence and in line with our policy not to investigate retrospective breaches of such Regulations, the Met will not commence an investigation at this time."
Bloody hell
What is this "retrospective" nonsense? Ridiculous.
More than a few days, probably. Saves them being inundated with claims of so-and-so had a party last month in breach of regulations. How much manpower would it take to investigate those claims, when there are likely far more pressing things to investigate.
Isn't Chris Huhne a problem here?
Not defending him - he did the crime, he did the time. But he was investigated and convicted almost a decade after the event because he was a cabinet minister and it's important to show such people aren't above the law.
If you went into your local cop shop and said "I took speeding points for my ex in 2012" how much effort do you think they'd put into it? They did it with Huhne because it was important to send that message - and it was a fair cop wasn't it?
And bgecause it was important for the then DPP to raise his public profile
The important question from a betting perspective on the next GE is this: how will the Conservative voting coalition be affected by Boris Johnson's replacement?
We know the Labour lead in the polls isn't due to very many (if any) direct Conservative > Labour switchers; instead, it's due to Conservative voters moving to DK/NOTA and some Lib Dem/Reform.
Will a new leader reunite them under his/her banner? Or will they show that Boris truly is the only leader who can reach voters that others can't touch?
Sunak loses the red wall voters I think, reasonably sure on that. Though he's probably the best leader to hold off the Lib Dems in the SE.
I'm not so sure. I think the Red Wall voters values have permanently shifted. It's more a case of a credible charismatic leader who channels them, which Boris could do because he'd backed Brexit all the way and has an unWokey banter about him, but others could do as well.
Arise Sir Nigel
Recall my prescient if eccentric friend's prediction: Farage will be an MP within a year, and PM within 3
One Number 10 official who attended the party on December 18 tells the FT: “It was huge, there must have been 40 to 50 people. It was really bad. There was cheese and wine ordered in by Number 10 staff. There was music.”
The official said they had also been present during a leaving party in Downing Street for former aide Cleo Watson on November 27, in which Johnson had given a speech.
Didn't London only go into Tier 3 in December?
Why is a November party relevant? The point is that in December London was in Tier 3 so it was illegal, it wasn't illegal in November was it?
November was when we had a national lockdown (except for schools) for the month, as a pre-Christmas (shopping season) I Can't Believe It's Not A Circuit-Breaker.
In November last year you were not allowed to hold Remembrance Sunday services inside.
Ironically the tiered system did the square root of fuck all in stopping covid.
I’ve long argued that as a response pre vaccines it was working in allowing opening up, without a massive increase in cases. Right up until the Kent, now alpha, variant hit. After that it was done, but by then the vaccines were rolling, so the lockdown was to buy time for jabs. And it worked.
We don't yet know exactly how well the vaccines have worked. If the Government does try to shove us all back into lockdown straight after Christmas then the entire vaccination programme will be viewed as a failure. Nobody is going to want to hear that, yes, life is shit but it would've been even more shit without them. And what then?
Unpopular opinion: as soon as Boris goes - like, within about 3 weeks - lots of people will miss him, a lot
For all his manifold flaws - which are now destroying him - he cheered people. Made them smile. That's what we will miss. I once read in a book by that awful Tom Knox dude that "the friends you miss most are the friends that made you laugh". It is true. And Boris was that person for plenty of Britons
Instead it will be Boring Kir Royale Starmer versus boring Rishi Sunak or Michael Gove or whoever, and it will all seem terribly grey and dull. And we will mourn
Unpopular opinion: as soon as Boris goes - like, within about 3 weeks - lots of people will miss him, a lot
For all his manifold flaws - which are now destroying him - he cheered people. Made them smile. That's what we will miss. I once read in a book by that awful Tom Knox dude that "the friends you miss most are the friends that made you laugh". It is true. And Boris was that person for plenty of Britons
Instead it will be Boring Kir Royale Starmer versus boring Rishi Sunak or Michael Gove or whoever, and it will all seem terribly grey and dull. And we will mourn
The important question from a betting perspective on the next GE is this: how will the Conservative voting coalition be affected by Boris Johnson's replacement?
We know the Labour lead in the polls isn't due to very many (if any) direct Conservative > Labour switchers; instead, it's due to Conservative voters moving to DK/NOTA and some Lib Dem/Reform.
Will a new leader reunite them under his/her banner? Or will they show that Boris truly is the only leader who can reach voters that others can't touch?
Sunak loses the red wall voters I think, reasonably sure on that. Though he's probably the best leader to hold off the Lib Dems in the SE.
I'm not so sure. I think the Red Wall voters values have permanently shifted. It's more a case of a credible charismatic leader who channels them, which Boris could do because he'd backed Brexit all the way and has an unWokey banter about him, but others could do as well.
Arise Sir Nigel
Recall my prescient if eccentric friend's prediction: Farage will be an MP within a year, and PM within 3
The important question from a betting perspective on the next GE is this: how will the Conservative voting coalition be affected by Boris Johnson's replacement?
We know the Labour lead in the polls isn't due to very many (if any) direct Conservative > Labour switchers; instead, it's due to Conservative voters moving to DK/NOTA and some Lib Dem/Reform.
Will a new leader reunite them under his/her banner? Or will they show that Boris truly is the only leader who can reach voters that others can't touch?
I do think that Johnson has a special electoral appeal, but a new leader, with a fresh start, would get a hearing. It would matter what their priorities were.
I'm not the best person to ask what those should be to keep the Johnson coalition together, but I'd imagine that a few early missteps would be enough to fracture the coalition irrevocably.
I'd focus on delivery: I could see Hunt or Truss resolving NI, ameliorating the rougher edges of Brexit and doing a deal to drastically reduce the channel crossing whilst getting the rhetoric right at the same time. [Btw, I don't think Sunak is the well-rounded politician people think he is.]
So many of Boris's problems simply come down to bad behaviour, laziness and incompetence.
Dominic "the police do not investigate crimes which happened in the past" Raab
A direct quote from the Met:
The Met said video footage obtained by ITV "does not provide evidence of a breach" of health regulations, adding: "The Metropolitan Police Service has received a significant amount of correspondence relating to allegations reported in the media that the Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) Regulations were breached at gatherings at No 10 Downing Street in November and December 2020.
"All this correspondence has been considered by detectives in detail, as well as footage published by ITV News. The correspondence and footage does not provide evidence of a breach of the Health Protection Regulations, but restates allegations made in the media. Based on the absence of evidence and in line with our policy not to investigate retrospective breaches of such Regulations, the Met will not commence an investigation at this time."
Bloody hell
What is this "retrospective" nonsense? Ridiculous.
More than a few days, probably. Saves them being inundated with claims of so-and-so had a party last month in breach of regulations. How much manpower would it take to investigate those claims, when there are likely far more pressing things to investigate.
Isn't Chris Huhne a problem here?
Not defending him - he did the crime, he did the time. But he was investigated and convicted almost a decade after the event because he was a cabinet minister and it's important to show such people aren't above the law.
If you went into your local cop shop and said "I took speeding points for my ex in 2012" how much effort do you think they'd put into it? They did it with Huhne because it was important to send that message - and it was a fair cop wasn't it?
And bgecause it was important for the then DPP to raise his public profile
I'm a Lib Dem and it hurt... but prosecuting Huhne was right. You cannot be seen to go easy on the rulers even if, ironically, it means going in harder than you would with Joe Bloggs.
Do you remember the polling company that had to invent a whole new questioning system because lots of Tory voters thought Corbyn was doing such a fabulous job?
Or the SNP supporters who cheered on the survival of Wendy Alexander on the grounds her replacement might be far more dangerous to them, (amusing though that seems with hindsight)?
Unpopular opinion: as soon as Boris goes - like, within about 3 weeks - lots of people will miss him, a lot
For all his manifold flaws - which are now destroying him - he cheered people. Made them smile. That's what we will miss. I once read in a book by that awful Tom Knox dude that "the friends you miss most are the friends that made you laugh". It is true. And Boris was that person for plenty of Britons
Instead it will be Boring Kir Royale Starmer versus boring Rishi Sunak or Michael Gove or whoever, and it will all seem terribly grey and dull. And we will mourn
And that is why Farage will make a comeback IMO - he probably knew he couldn’t outshone Boris, esp when he had stolen his clothes. If Boris goes there is a personality void in British politics, and I think Farage, poss on an anti lockdown stance, will be eager to fill it
Unpopular opinion: as soon as Boris goes - like, within about 3 weeks - lots of people will miss him, a lot
For all his manifold flaws - which are now destroying him - he cheered people. Made them smile. That's what we will miss. I once read in a book by that awful Tom Knox dude that "the friends you miss most are the friends that made you laugh". It is true. And Boris was that person for plenty of Britons
Instead it will be Boring Kir Royale Starmer versus boring Rishi Sunak or Michael Gove or whoever, and it will all seem terribly grey and dull. And we will mourn
Luckily for you, there are all kinds of comedy shows available, or videos of people falling off rope swings into soft mud.
The rest of us can wrestle back politics from being a fucking arena for your shits and giggles.
Ironically the tiered system did the square root of fuck all in stopping covid.
I’ve long argued that as a response pre vaccines it was working in allowing opening up, without a massive increase in cases. Right up until the Kent, now alpha, variant hit. After that it was done, but by then the vaccines were rolling, so the lockdown was to buy time for jabs. And it worked.
We don't yet know exactly how well the vaccines have worked. If the Government does try to shove us all back into lockdown straight after Christmas then the entire vaccination programme will be viewed as a failure. Nobody is going to want to hear that, yes, life is shit but it would've been even more shit without them. And what then?
I was kind of referring to the situation pre omicron.
Presumably we get Raab as temporary leader if Johnson resigns to spend more time with his party planner.
That is a good point re betting purposes for next PM. Would Raab win the bet?
No, but being stand in leader (provided he demonstrates competence) may improve his chances in the contest.
I would remind people that unlike in Labour the Tory leader remains leader until a new leader is elected. Certainly if they are in office. That even applies if they are ill and an acting leader is in practical charge (Butler, Curzon).
The exception was in 1975 when Heath, shocked and humiliated, asked Robert Carr to chair the Shadow Cabinet until a new leader was elected.
Yes, but that may not be tenable if partygate worsens.
I don't think there is a mechanism for them to do so. The Constitution of the Conservative Party (page 18) makes no provision for an acting leader. The last time a leader died in office without an obvious successor was as long ago as 1828 and so it seems to have simply never arisen. On all other occasions either there was an alternative leader ready or there was a figure in the other house who temporarily became sole leader.
Johnson will remain leader and PM until a replacement is elected even if he is on gardening leave. I'd add there's no certainty Raab would be picked to take charge in those circumstances either. Others are available. William Hague might be asked to come back temporarily, for example.
Teresa May in an attempt to ensure only a single candidate remains when the final 2 is selected.
Unpopular opinion: as soon as Boris goes - like, within about 3 weeks - lots of people will miss him, a lot
For all his manifold flaws - which are now destroying him - he cheered people. Made them smile. That's what we will miss. I once read in a book by that awful Tom Knox dude that "the friends you miss most are the friends that made you laugh". It is true. And Boris was that person for plenty of Britons
Instead it will be Boring Kir Royale Starmer versus boring Rishi Sunak or Michael Gove or whoever, and it will all seem terribly grey and dull. And we will mourn
Michael Gove is hardly boring at the moment.
The war on drugs wouldn't last with Gove in charge.
Unpopular opinion: as soon as Boris goes - like, within about 3 weeks - lots of people will miss him, a lot
For all his manifold flaws - which are now destroying him - he cheered people. Made them smile. That's what we will miss. I once read in a book by that awful Tom Knox dude that "the friends you miss most are the friends that made you laugh". It is true. And Boris was that person for plenty of Britons
Instead it will be Boring Kir Royale Starmer versus boring Rishi Sunak or Michael Gove or whoever, and it will all seem terribly grey and dull. And we will mourn
Isn't that precisely his problem? That he isn't funny any more? The joke got old, the meme got stale.
Unpopular opinion: as soon as Boris goes - like, within about 3 weeks - lots of people will miss him, a lot
For all his manifold flaws - which are now destroying him - he cheered people. Made them smile. That's what we will miss. I once read in a book by that awful Tom Knox dude that "the friends you miss most are the friends that made you laugh". It is true. And Boris was that person for plenty of Britons
Instead it will be Boring Kir Royale Starmer versus boring Rishi Sunak or Michael Gove or whoever, and it will all seem terribly grey and dull. And we will mourn
And that is why Farage will make a comeback IMO - he probably knew he couldn’t outshone Boris, esp when he had stolen his clothes. If Boris goes there is a personality void in British politics, and I think Farage, poss on an anti lockdown stance, will be eager to fill it
Yep. Anti lockdown, stop the Channel crossings, fuck the Frogs.
Could easily get 10-20% in the polls and destroy the post-Boris Tories
Presumably we get Raab as temporary leader if Johnson resigns to spend more time with his party planner.
That is a good point re betting purposes for next PM. Would Raab win the bet?
No, but being stand in leader (provided he demonstrates competence) may improve his chances in the contest.
I would remind people that unlike in Labour the Tory leader remains leader until a new leader is elected. Certainly if they are in office. That even applies if they are ill and an acting leader is in practical charge (Butler, Curzon).
The exception was in 1975 when Heath, shocked and humiliated, asked Robert Carr to chair the Shadow Cabinet until a new leader was elected.
Yes, but that may not be tenable if partygate worsens.
I don't think there is a mechanism for them to do so. The Constitution of the Conservative Party (page 18) makes no provision for an acting leader. The last time a leader died in office without an obvious successor was as long ago as 1828 and so it seems to have simply never arisen. On all other occasions either there was an alternative leader ready or there was a figure in the other house who temporarily became sole leader.
Johnson will remain leader and PM until a replacement is elected even if he is on gardening leave. I'd add there's no certainty Raab would be picked to take charge in those circumstances either. Others are available. William Hague might be asked to come back temporarily, for example.
Teresa May in an attempt to ensure only a single candidate remains when the final 2 is selected.
She would, in all seriousness, be another possibility as a caretaker while Johnson was on gardening leave.
It would annoy the fuck out of Priti Patel, so there is no actual downside.
Unpopular opinion: as soon as Boris goes - like, within about 3 weeks - lots of people will miss him, a lot
For all his manifold flaws - which are now destroying him - he cheered people. Made them smile. That's what we will miss. I once read in a book by that awful Tom Knox dude that "the friends you miss most are the friends that made you laugh". It is true. And Boris was that person for plenty of Britons
Instead it will be Boring Kir Royale Starmer versus boring Rishi Sunak or Michael Gove or whoever, and it will all seem terribly grey and dull. And we will mourn
Michael Gove is hardly boring at the moment.
The war on drugs wouldn't last with Gove in charge.
Unpopular opinion: as soon as Boris goes - like, within about 3 weeks - lots of people will miss him, a lot
For all his manifold flaws - which are now destroying him - he cheered people. Made them smile. That's what we will miss. I once read in a book by that awful Tom Knox dude that "the friends you miss most are the friends that made you laugh". It is true. And Boris was that person for plenty of Britons
Instead it will be Boring Kir Royale Starmer versus boring Rishi Sunak or Michael Gove or whoever, and it will all seem terribly grey and dull. And we will mourn
Michael Gove is hardly boring at the moment.
The war on drugs wouldn't last with Gove in charge.
Unpopular opinion: as soon as Boris goes - like, within about 3 weeks - lots of people will miss him, a lot
For all his manifold flaws - which are now destroying him - he cheered people. Made them smile. That's what we will miss. I once read in a book by that awful Tom Knox dude that "the friends you miss most are the friends that made you laugh". It is true. And Boris was that person for plenty of Britons
Instead it will be Boring Kir Royale Starmer versus boring Rishi Sunak or Michael Gove or whoever, and it will all seem terribly grey and dull. And we will mourn
He could have been his generation's Great Prime Minister We Never Had. We'd all have wondered. I'm not a fan (have you noticed?), but had he gone from Mayor to pundit, I'd have stroked my chin and wondered what he'd have been like, thinking how to play to his strengths and overcome his weaknesses...
... but he had to spoil it all for everyone (including himself) by getting the job.
And the worst of it is that, a bit like Brown, his ambition has napalmed his alternatives.
Unpopular opinion: as soon as Boris goes - like, within about 3 weeks - lots of people will miss him, a lot
For all his manifold flaws - which are now destroying him - he cheered people. Made them smile. That's what we will miss. I once read in a book by that awful Tom Knox dude that "the friends you miss most are the friends that made you laugh". It is true. And Boris was that person for plenty of Britons
Instead it will be Boring Kir Royale Starmer versus boring Rishi Sunak or Michael Gove or whoever, and it will all seem terribly grey and dull. And we will mourn
Michael Gove is hardly boring at the moment.
The war on drugs wouldn't last with Gove in charge.
Unpopular opinion: as soon as Boris goes - like, within about 3 weeks - lots of people will miss him, a lot
For all his manifold flaws - which are now destroying him - he cheered people. Made them smile. That's what we will miss. I once read in a book by that awful Tom Knox dude that "the friends you miss most are the friends that made you laugh". It is true. And Boris was that person for plenty of Britons
Instead it will be Boring Kir Royale Starmer versus boring Rishi Sunak or Michael Gove or whoever, and it will all seem terribly grey and dull. And we will mourn
Michael Gove is hardly boring at the moment.
The war on drugs wouldn't last with Gove in charge.
Unpopular opinion: as soon as Boris goes - like, within about 3 weeks - lots of people will miss him, a lot
For all his manifold flaws - which are now destroying him - he cheered people. Made them smile. That's what we will miss. I once read in a book by that awful Tom Knox dude that "the friends you miss most are the friends that made you laugh". It is true. And Boris was that person for plenty of Britons
Instead it will be Boring Kir Royale Starmer versus boring Rishi Sunak or Michael Gove or whoever, and it will all seem terribly grey and dull. And we will mourn
Isn't that precisely his problem? That he isn't funny any more? The joke got old, the meme got stale.
Maybe, but when a great comedian passes into oblivion, you don't remember their dud gigs at the end, you remember their heyday, and you reminisce fondly
Also Boris will be gone, if he goes, for having a party. It befits the Merry Monarch. This is not Blair, who went for illegally invading a country and killing half a million people and upending global stability forever
Unpopular opinion: as soon as Boris goes - like, within about 3 weeks - lots of people will miss him, a lot
For all his manifold flaws - which are now destroying him - he cheered people. Made them smile. That's what we will miss. I once read in a book by that awful Tom Knox dude that "the friends you miss most are the friends that made you laugh". It is true. And Boris was that person for plenty of Britons
Instead it will be Boring Kir Royale Starmer versus boring Rishi Sunak or Michael Gove or whoever, and it will all seem terribly grey and dull. And we will mourn
Michael Gove is hardly boring at the moment.
The war on drugs wouldn't last with Gove in charge.
Don't we (traditionally) need a 'dark horse' in the Conservatives to bring down the PM so they can then vote someone else who wasn't treacherous in? Who could that be this time? Or has Boris debased himself so badly that the dark horse isn't needed?
Unpopular opinion: as soon as Boris goes - like, within about 3 weeks - lots of people will miss him, a lot
For all his manifold flaws - which are now destroying him - he cheered people. Made them smile. That's what we will miss. I once read in a book by that awful Tom Knox dude that "the friends you miss most are the friends that made you laugh". It is true. And Boris was that person for plenty of Britons
Instead it will be Boring Kir Royale Starmer versus boring Rishi Sunak or Michael Gove or whoever, and it will all seem terribly grey and dull. And we will mourn
And that is why Farage will make a comeback IMO - he probably knew he couldn’t outshone Boris, esp when he had stolen his clothes. If Boris goes there is a personality void in British politics, and I think Farage, poss on an anti lockdown stance, will be eager to fill it
If the Tory vote split that way under FPTP then you could get a Kim Campbell Canadian style wipe out of the Tories and Farage still gets nothing. In any event Farage has a terrible record of leading parties in Westminster elections and even at a highly unlikely 10% would struggle to win a single seat.
Ironically the tiered system did the square root of fuck all in stopping covid.
Nothing stops Covid other than lockdowns and vaccines.
We can't stop Covid. We've got the vaccines, so now we have to let it spread. No to lockdowns, no to restrictions.
It’s timely to remember the purpose of the initial lockdown. “To flatten the curve, squash the sombrero”. It wasn’t to reduce the total number of cases but to displace them in time so they occurred over a longer period, to make it more manageable for the health service.
We don’t really have the data for early 2020. But it’s quite instructive to look at what happened in lockdowns 2 and 3. Cases were basically on the floor until we got alpha. There was then a sharp uptick, the second lockdown brought it down but as soon as it was lifted we got the resultant sharp spike up followed by the crash in cases that we’d seen in wave 1. There was no squashed sombrero, only a displacement in time of the spike and crash to later in the winter.
If lockdowns worked we should have seen a squashed sombrero, no? Not a mere shifting right of the spike.
We see from the delta wave what a squished sombrero case load really looks like. Cases grew from almost nothing to a baseline which it has bounced around for half a year. No sudden spike, no sudden crash. But that legitimate squishing has taken place over a period with no restrictions at all. It’s been caused by vaccines.
I know this will irk people but do we have any good evidence that lockdowns achieve much at all other than buying time for a vaccine programme? Seems to me the evidence indicates this can now be the sole justification for NPI, a point missed by many.
Which does rather beg the question asked in the presser. What buggering about has been going on that we have millions of booster doses sitting in fridges rather than in arms, if it was “obvious and inevitable” we’d be seeing new variants? And what is the plan for next time and the time after that, to ensure vaccines are ahead of the game, rather than politicians falling back on the lazy option of NPI to buy extra time. Not just tweaked formulae and supply. But a proactive delivery programme.
Unpopular opinion: as soon as Boris goes - like, within about 3 weeks - lots of people will miss him, a lot
For all his manifold flaws - which are now destroying him - he cheered people. Made them smile. That's what we will miss. I once read in a book by that awful Tom Knox dude that "the friends you miss most are the friends that made you laugh". It is true. And Boris was that person for plenty of Britons
Instead it will be Boring Kir Royale Starmer versus boring Rishi Sunak or Michael Gove or whoever, and it will all seem terribly grey and dull. And we will mourn
Isn't that precisely his problem? That he isn't funny any more? The joke got old, the meme got stale.
Maybe, but when a great comedian passes into oblivion, you don't remember their dud gigs at the end, you remember their heyday, and you reminisce fondly
Also Boris will be gone, if he goes, for having a party. It befits the Merry Monarch. This is not Blair, who went for illegally invading a country and killing half a million people and upending global stability forever
"Great comedian"? He's not Bob Monkhouse. He's some prick who made people chuckle briefly by stammering and ruffling his hair, but then shat himself and flung it at the audience.
Don't we (traditionally) need a 'dark horse' in the Conservatives to bring down the PM so they can then vote someone else who wasn't treacherous in? Who could that be this time? Or has Boris debased himself so badly that the dark horse isn't needed?
I think you mean a stalking horse.
No longer needed with the rule changes brought in by Hague.
Don't we (traditionally) need a 'dark horse' in the Conservatives to bring down the PM so they can then vote someone else who wasn't treacherous in? Who could that be this time? Or has Boris debased himself so badly that the dark horse isn't needed?
Don't we (traditionally) need a 'dark horse' in the Conservatives to bring down the PM so they can then vote someone else who wasn't treacherous in? Who could that be this time? Or has Boris debased himself so badly that the dark horse isn't needed?
Isn't it traditionally a stalking horse rather than a dark horse?
Unpopular opinion: as soon as Boris goes - like, within about 3 weeks - lots of people will miss him, a lot
For all his manifold flaws - which are now destroying him - he cheered people. Made them smile. That's what we will miss. I once read in a book by that awful Tom Knox dude that "the friends you miss most are the friends that made you laugh". It is true. And Boris was that person for plenty of Britons
Instead it will be Boring Kir Royale Starmer versus boring Rishi Sunak or Michael Gove or whoever, and it will all seem terribly grey and dull. And we will mourn
Isn't that precisely his problem? That he isn't funny any more? The joke got old, the meme got stale.
Maybe, but when a great comedian passes into oblivion, you don't remember their dud gigs at the end, you remember their heyday, and you reminisce fondly
Also Boris will be gone, if he goes, for having a party. It befits the Merry Monarch. This is not Blair, who went for illegally invading a country and killing half a million people and upending global stability forever
"Great comedian"? He's not Bob Monkhouse. He's some prick who made people chuckle briefly by stammering and ruffling his hair, but then shat himself and flung it at the audience.
I suppose you anti-Borisovites and wheedling Remoaners must have your moment of triumph. Enjoy
Don't we (traditionally) need a 'dark horse' in the Conservatives to bring down the PM so they can then vote someone else who wasn't treacherous in? Who could that be this time? Or has Boris debased himself so badly that the dark horse isn't needed?
Isn't it traditionally a stalking horse rather than a dark horse?
No, that's where you put up an obviously duff candidate to see how much support the incumbent has. However, the rules of the Tory Party leadership have changed, so that doesn't happen any more, which I think is a shame because I like this bit in The Thick of It:
Don't we (traditionally) need a 'dark horse' in the Conservatives to bring down the PM so they can then vote someone else who wasn't treacherous in? Who could that be this time? Or has Boris debased himself so badly that the dark horse isn't needed?
Why would you need a horse when they have a positive surfeit of donkeys?
Don't we (traditionally) need a 'dark horse' in the Conservatives to bring down the PM so they can then vote someone else who wasn't treacherous in? Who could that be this time? Or has Boris debased himself so badly that the dark horse isn't needed?
Don't confuse your dark- and stalking-horses
"The dark horse emerges David Davis MP is the self-acknowledged "dark horse" of the Conservative leadership battle, but in the Westminster village he is known by another sobriquet - the thinking man's Tory. Matthew Tempest asks him how he will win the Conservative crown" https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2001/jun/29/conservatives.daviddavis
Don't we (traditionally) need a 'dark horse' in the Conservatives to bring down the PM so they can then vote someone else who wasn't treacherous in? Who could that be this time? Or has Boris debased himself so badly that the dark horse isn't needed?
Don't confuse your dark- and stalking-horses
"The dark horse emerges David Davis MP is the self-acknowledged "dark horse" of the Conservative leadership battle, but in the Westminster village he is known by another sobriquet - the thinking man's Tory. Matthew Tempest asks him how he will win the Conservative crown" https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2001/jun/29/conservatives.daviddavis
Dominic "the police do not investigate crimes which happened in the past" Raab
A direct quote from the Met:
The Met said video footage obtained by ITV "does not provide evidence of a breach" of health regulations, adding: "The Metropolitan Police Service has received a significant amount of correspondence relating to allegations reported in the media that the Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) Regulations were breached at gatherings at No 10 Downing Street in November and December 2020.
"All this correspondence has been considered by detectives in detail, as well as footage published by ITV News. The correspondence and footage does not provide evidence of a breach of the Health Protection Regulations, but restates allegations made in the media. Based on the absence of evidence and in line with our policy not to investigate retrospective breaches of such Regulations, the Met will not commence an investigation at this time."
Yes officer, I broke the law on drink driving, but in a specific and limited way, and retrospectively.
You will observe that since you pulled me over to a stop, I am no longer speeding. And whist paralytic, I am not, at present driving either. Thank you.
I prefer the Heisenberg response to speeding charges. Do you know how fast you were going, sir? No, officer, because I knew exactly where I was.
Wasn't his passenger Schroedinger? He said to the policeman he was rushing his cat to the Vets, but didn't know yet whether they were in time?
AFAICT, it is masks in theatres, cinemas, night clubs and footy grounds. And work from home if you can. It's hardly totalitarian. In fact, it's barely different.
Dominic "the police do not investigate crimes which happened in the past" Raab
A direct quote from the Met:
The Met said video footage obtained by ITV "does not provide evidence of a breach" of health regulations, adding: "The Metropolitan Police Service has received a significant amount of correspondence relating to allegations reported in the media that the Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) Regulations were breached at gatherings at No 10 Downing Street in November and December 2020.
"All this correspondence has been considered by detectives in detail, as well as footage published by ITV News. The correspondence and footage does not provide evidence of a breach of the Health Protection Regulations, but restates allegations made in the media. Based on the absence of evidence and in line with our policy not to investigate retrospective breaches of such Regulations, the Met will not commence an investigation at this time."
Yes officer, I broke the law on drink driving, but in a specific and limited way, and retrospectively.
You will observe that since you pulled me over to a stop, I am no longer speeding. And whist paralytic, I am not, at present driving either. Thank you.
I prefer the Heisenberg response to speeding charges. Do you know how fast you were going, sir? No, officer, because I knew exactly where I was.
Wasn't his passenger Schroedinger? He said to the policeman he was rushing his cat to the Vets, but didn't know yet whether it was worth it?
Pauli, of course, wasn't allowed in the same car as the other two.
Don't we (traditionally) need a 'dark horse' in the Conservatives to bring down the PM so they can then vote someone else who wasn't treacherous in? Who could that be this time? Or has Boris debased himself so badly that the dark horse isn't needed?
Don't confuse your dark- and stalking-horses
"The dark horse emerges David Davis MP is the self-acknowledged "dark horse" of the Conservative leadership battle, but in the Westminster village he is known by another sobriquet - the thinking man's Tory. Matthew Tempest asks him how he will win the Conservative crown" https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2001/jun/29/conservatives.daviddavis
This may have confused me!
Happier days. Davis is a decent guy.
Dominic Cummings hates him, so he must be a fairly good thing.
BJO says Starmer must resign right? Isn’t that how this goes?
Would anyone like to bet with me about Labour achieving a double digit lead by the end of 2022?
End of the month at this rate.
Didn’t someone say a bad announcement or bad week takes up to a couple of weeks to really show in polling?
Drinking with one of the candidates at NS he reckons the LDs are nearly there.. mind you he's basing that on press reports and won't get to the constituency until tomorrow so don't regard that as a tip
There were no extra restrictions announced tonight or any new lockdowns, all that was asked was a perfectly reasonable requirement for vaccine passports for nightclubs and large events and masks to be worn in cinemas and theatres.
As for Labour's mere 4% poll lead, even Ed Miliband and Kinnock got far bigger leads than that midterm, let alone Blair
BJO says Starmer must resign right? Isn’t that how this goes?
Would anyone like to bet with me about Labour achieving a double digit lead by the end of 2022?
End of the month at this rate.
Didn’t someone say a bad announcement or bad week takes up to a couple of weeks to really show in polling?
Drinking with one of the candidates at NS he reckons the LDs are nearly there.. mind you he's basing that on press reports and won't get to the constituency until tomorrow so don't regard that as a tip
Hang on. A candidate who isn't there yet? Or do I misunderstand?
AFAICT, it is masks in theatres, cinemas, night clubs and footy grounds. And work from home if you can. It's hardly totalitarian. In fact, it's barely different.
There were no extra restrictions announced tonight or any new lockdowns, all that was asked was a perfectly reasonable requirement for vaccine passports for nightclubs and large events and masks to be worn in cinemas and theatres.
As for Labour's mere 4% poll lead, even Ed Miliband and Kinnock got far bigger leads than that midterm, let alone Blair
You seem to have forgotten that, as from next week, you must work from home if you can.
Channel 4 will broadcast the Formula One season finale live on Sunday after reaching a deal with Sky to share the television rights.
The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix will be winner-takes-all for Lewis Hamilton, 36, and Max Verstappen, 24, with the pair level on points in the drivers’ standings. It will be a record eighth title for the Englishman if he wins.
Sky has the rights to show all the races live, while Channel 4 is normally limited to a highlights package, though does broadcast the British Grand Prix live. The Times understands that a deal has been reached in which the satellite broadcaster will share the rights to Sunday’s race.
Channel 4 will do a 30-minute pre-race show and will then switch to Sky’s commentary for the race, which will be followed by another 30-minute show with the Channel 4 team. The terrestrial channel will still air its highlights programme. A deal is expected to be announced on Thursday.]
Don't we (traditionally) need a 'dark horse' in the Conservatives to bring down the PM so they can then vote someone else who wasn't treacherous in? Who could that be this time? Or has Boris debased himself so badly that the dark horse isn't needed?
Don't confuse your dark- and stalking-horses
"The dark horse emerges David Davis MP is the self-acknowledged "dark horse" of the Conservative leadership battle, but in the Westminster village he is known by another sobriquet - the thinking man's Tory. Matthew Tempest asks him how he will win the Conservative crown" https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2001/jun/29/conservatives.daviddavis
This may have confused me!
Happier days. Davis is a decent guy.
Dominic Cummings hates him, so he must be a fairly good thing.
Unpopular opinion: as soon as Boris goes - like, within about 3 weeks - lots of people will miss him, a lot
For all his manifold flaws - which are now destroying him - he cheered people. Made them smile. That's what we will miss. I once read in a book by that awful Tom Knox dude that "the friends you miss most are the friends that made you laugh". It is true. And Boris was that person for plenty of Britons
Instead it will be Boring Kir Royale Starmer versus boring Rishi Sunak or Michael Gove or whoever, and it will all seem terribly grey and dull. And we will mourn
Isn't that precisely his problem? That he isn't funny any more? The joke got old, the meme got stale.
Maybe, but when a great comedian passes into oblivion, you don't remember their dud gigs at the end, you remember their heyday, and you reminisce fondly
Also Boris will be gone, if he goes, for having a party. It befits the Merry Monarch. This is not Blair, who went for illegally invading a country and killing half a million people and upending global stability forever
"Great comedian"? He's not Bob Monkhouse. He's some prick who made people chuckle briefly by stammering and ruffling his hair, but then shat himself and flung it at the audience.
I suppose you anti-Borisovites and wheedling Remoaners must have your moment of triumph. Enjoy
Us non-Tory, anti-Johnson people don't actually really want the Tories to depose him if we think about it.
A reason why Thatcher and Blair remain hate figures in many ways is that they weren't defeated in battle. Blair can always say he'd have won in 2010, and Thatcher could always say she'd have got a proper majority (as she had three times) in 1992. And you can never disprove it.
William Wragg getting the scalp cheats the rest of us.
Presumably we get Raab as temporary leader if Johnson resigns to spend more time with his party planner.
That is a good point re betting purposes for next PM. Would Raab win the bet?
No, but being stand in leader (provided he demonstrates competence) may improve his chances in the contest.
I would remind people that unlike in Labour the Tory leader remains leader until a new leader is elected. Certainly if they are in office. That even applies if they are ill and an acting leader is in practical charge (Butler, Curzon).
The exception was in 1975 when Heath, shocked and humiliated, asked Robert Carr to chair the Shadow Cabinet until a new leader was elected.
Yes, but that may not be tenable if partygate worsens.
I don't think there is a mechanism for them to do so. The Constitution of the Conservative Party (page 18) makes no provision for an acting leader. The last time a leader died in office without an obvious successor was as long ago as 1828 and so it seems to have simply never arisen. On all other occasions either there was an alternative leader ready or there was a figure in the other house who temporarily became sole leader.
Johnson will remain leader and PM until a replacement is elected even if he is on gardening leave. I'd add there's no certainty Raab would be picked to take charge in those circumstances either. Others are available. William Hague might be asked to come back temporarily, for example.
IIRC when a resigning PM formally tenders his resignation by returning his seals of office to the Queen, he is supposed to advise her who he thinks is most likely to command the confidence of the House as his successor. That would be the mechanism if he decides to go immediately. Presumably he’d nominate Raab as Deputy PM (First Secretary of State is his official title I think), but it doesn’t have to be if the “men in grey suits” tell him Raab is unlikely to be acceptable.
Channel 4 will broadcast the Formula One season finale live on Sunday after reaching a deal with Sky to share the television rights.
The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix will be winner-takes-all for Lewis Hamilton, 36, and Max Verstappen, 24, with the pair level on points in the drivers’ standings. It will be a record eighth title for the Englishman if he wins.
Sky has the rights to show all the races live, while Channel 4 is normally limited to a highlights package, though does broadcast the British Grand Prix live. The Times understands that a deal has been reached in which the satellite broadcaster will share the rights to Sunday’s race.
Channel 4 will do a 30-minute pre-race show and will then switch to Sky’s commentary for the race, which will be followed by another 30-minute show with the Channel 4 team. The terrestrial channel will still air its highlights programme. A deal is expected to be announced on Thursday.]
There were no extra restrictions announced tonight or any new lockdowns, all that was asked was a perfectly reasonable requirement for vaccine passports for nightclubs and large events and masks to be worn in cinemas and theatres.
As for Labour's mere 4% poll lead, even Ed Miliband and Kinnock got far bigger leads than that midterm, let alone Blair
Spot on @HYUFD. From the reaction, I thought entire sectors had been shuttered and we'd been confined to one exercise a day again. Nothing has changed! (She might be back soon).
AFAICT, it is masks in theatres, cinemas, night clubs and footy grounds. And work from home if you can. It's hardly totalitarian. In fact, it's barely different.
Channel 4 will broadcast the Formula One season finale live on Sunday after reaching a deal with Sky to share the television rights.
The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix will be winner-takes-all for Lewis Hamilton, 36, and Max Verstappen, 24, with the pair level on points in the drivers’ standings. It will be a record eighth title for the Englishman if he wins.
Sky has the rights to show all the races live, while Channel 4 is normally limited to a highlights package, though does broadcast the British Grand Prix live. The Times understands that a deal has been reached in which the satellite broadcaster will share the rights to Sunday’s race.
Channel 4 will do a 30-minute pre-race show and will then switch to Sky’s commentary for the race, which will be followed by another 30-minute show with the Channel 4 team. The terrestrial channel will still air its highlights programme. A deal is expected to be announced on Thursday.]
Dominic "the police do not investigate crimes which happened in the past" Raab
A direct quote from the Met:
The Met said video footage obtained by ITV "does not provide evidence of a breach" of health regulations, adding: "The Metropolitan Police Service has received a significant amount of correspondence relating to allegations reported in the media that the Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) Regulations were breached at gatherings at No 10 Downing Street in November and December 2020.
"All this correspondence has been considered by detectives in detail, as well as footage published by ITV News. The correspondence and footage does not provide evidence of a breach of the Health Protection Regulations, but restates allegations made in the media. Based on the absence of evidence and in line with our policy not to investigate retrospective breaches of such Regulations, the Met will not commence an investigation at this time."
Yes officer, I broke the law on drink driving, but in a specific and limited way, and retrospectively.
You will observe that since you pulled me over to a stop, I am no longer speeding. And whist paralytic, I am not, at present driving either. Thank you.
I prefer the Heisenberg response to speeding charges. Do you know how fast you were going, sir? No, officer, because I knew exactly where I was.
Wasn't his passenger Schroedinger? He said to the policeman he was rushing his cat to the Vets, but didn't know yet whether it was worth it?
Pauli, of course, wasn't allowed in the same car as the other two.
I think there was a Planck strapped to the luggage rack.
There were no extra restrictions announced tonight or any new lockdowns, all that was asked was a perfectly reasonable requirement for vaccine passports for nightclubs and large events and masks to be worn in cinemas and theatres.
As for Labour's mere 4% poll lead, even Ed Miliband and Kinnock got far bigger leads than that midterm, let alone Blair
I don’t say this lightly but fuck off. A threshold has been crossed. And it’s been quite openly crossed on an entirely precautionary basis of “we’re doing this because we just don’t know”. For a restriction that isn’t going to achieve a thing in keeping cases down, other than to act as a horrifically inefficient and clumsy inducement to increase vaccination rates among the reluctant.
Don't we (traditionally) need a 'dark horse' in the Conservatives to bring down the PM so they can then vote someone else who wasn't treacherous in? Who could that be this time? Or has Boris debased himself so badly that the dark horse isn't needed?
Isn't it traditionally a stalking horse rather than a dark horse?
Wasn't Sir Anthony Meyer a stalking dark horse ?
For some reason this is making me think of a nodding donkey.
There were no extra restrictions announced tonight or any new lockdowns, all that was asked was a perfectly reasonable requirement for vaccine passports for nightclubs and large events and masks to be worn in cinemas and theatres.
As for Labour's mere 4% poll lead, even Ed Miliband and Kinnock got far bigger leads than that midterm, let alone Blair
You seem to have forgotten that, as from next week, you must work from home if you can.
And the trend is of salami tactics taking us towards lockdown.
Dominic "the police do not investigate crimes which happened in the past" Raab
A direct quote from the Met:
The Met said video footage obtained by ITV "does not provide evidence of a breach" of health regulations, adding: "The Metropolitan Police Service has received a significant amount of correspondence relating to allegations reported in the media that the Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) Regulations were breached at gatherings at No 10 Downing Street in November and December 2020.
"All this correspondence has been considered by detectives in detail, as well as footage published by ITV News. The correspondence and footage does not provide evidence of a breach of the Health Protection Regulations, but restates allegations made in the media. Based on the absence of evidence and in line with our policy not to investigate retrospective breaches of such Regulations, the Met will not commence an investigation at this time."
Yes officer, I broke the law on drink driving, but in a specific and limited way, and retrospectively.
You will observe that since you pulled me over to a stop, I am no longer speeding. And whist paralytic, I am not, at present driving either. Thank you.
I prefer the Heisenberg response to speeding charges. Do you know how fast you were going, sir? No, officer, because I knew exactly where I was.
Wasn't his passenger Schroedinger? He said to the policeman he was rushing his cat to the Vets, but didn't know yet whether it was worth it?
Pauli, of course, wasn't allowed in the same car as the other two.
I think there was a Planck strapped to the luggage rack.
And Meitner and Frisch had split up so didn't come along.
Dominic "the police do not investigate crimes which happened in the past" Raab
A direct quote from the Met:
The Met said video footage obtained by ITV "does not provide evidence of a breach" of health regulations, adding: "The Metropolitan Police Service has received a significant amount of correspondence relating to allegations reported in the media that the Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) Regulations were breached at gatherings at No 10 Downing Street in November and December 2020.
"All this correspondence has been considered by detectives in detail, as well as footage published by ITV News. The correspondence and footage does not provide evidence of a breach of the Health Protection Regulations, but restates allegations made in the media. Based on the absence of evidence and in line with our policy not to investigate retrospective breaches of such Regulations, the Met will not commence an investigation at this time."
Yes officer, I broke the law on drink driving, but in a specific and limited way, and retrospectively.
You will observe that since you pulled me over to a stop, I am no longer speeding. And whist paralytic, I am not, at present driving either. Thank you.
I prefer the Heisenberg response to speeding charges. Do you know how fast you were going, sir? No, officer, because I knew exactly where I was.
Wasn't his passenger Schroedinger? He said to the policeman he was rushing his cat to the Vets, but didn't know yet whether it was worth it?
Pauli, of course, wasn't allowed in the same car as the other two.
I think there was a Planck strapped to the luggage rack.
Fun fact: you are bigger than the Planck length by a bigger multiple than the observable universe is bigger than you are.
There were no extra restrictions announced tonight or any new lockdowns, all that was asked was a perfectly reasonable requirement for vaccine passports for nightclubs and large events and masks to be worn in cinemas and theatres.
As for Labour's mere 4% poll lead, even Ed Miliband and Kinnock got far bigger leads than that midterm, let alone Blair
Spot on @HYUFD. From the reaction, I thought entire sectors had been shuttered and we'd been confined to one exercise a day again. Nothing has changed! (She might be back soon).
I don't want that for several reasons, but the idea of May ousting Boris is too delicious not to cause a little pulse of pleasure. Seeing revenge served up Arctic-cold would be [Italian chef finger kiss]
There were no extra restrictions announced tonight or any new lockdowns, all that was asked was a perfectly reasonable requirement for vaccine passports for nightclubs and large events and masks to be worn in cinemas and theatres.
As for Labour's mere 4% poll lead, even Ed Miliband and Kinnock got far bigger leads than that midterm, let alone Blair
I don’t say this lightly but fuck off. A threshold has been crossed. And it’s been quite openly crossed on an entirely precautionary basis of “we’re doing this because we just don’t know”. For a restriction that isn’t going to achieve a thing in keeping cases down, other than to act as a horrifically inefficient and clumsy inducement to increase vaccination rates among the reluctant.
Fuck off yourself.
If vaccine passports for large events encourage more people to get vaccinated and avoid hospitalisation all to the good
Are there any anti lockdown Labour MPs? It would be interesting to hear from a left-libertarian in our political class.
Clive Lewis is a very open minded fellow.
Any chance of a few words from him?
There isn't any need. Since we never have been locked down. Nor is anyone suggesting it. That's why you're in the pub.
We are not locked down now.
But we have been locked down. There were several weeks (months?) when the pubs were closed.
The pubs were closed for weeks. In England. A country built upon pubs! Closed. Closed!
If that’s not lockdown, I don’t know what is.
A lockdown is needing to text the police to leave your house. Which is enforced. Pubs shut is closed pubs.
Pubs shut is a lockdown.
Needing to text the Police to leave your house is house arrest.
This is the problem with having lockdown last year, we've moved the Overton Window so disgustingly far that people are OK with draconian lockdown measures and think they're not even a form of lockdown.
AFAICT, it is masks in theatres, cinemas, night clubs and footy grounds. And work from home if you can. It's hardly totalitarian. In fact, it's barely different.
Comments
Having you anything to say?
I’m sure we’re missing something.
As to what will actually be left of the hospitality and cultural sectors, by the time public non-cooperation with the rules and an ultra-infectious variant finally brings this misery to its (possibly calamitous) end, who can say?
We can't stop Covid. We've got the vaccines, so now we have to let it spread. No to lockdowns, no to restrictions.
23% saying he should stay, including @Keir_Starmer
High curveball, low breaking ball, struck him out swinging wildly about drugs or some such.
For all his manifold flaws - which are now destroying him - he cheered people. Made them smile. That's what we will miss. I once read in a book by that awful Tom Knox dude that "the friends you miss most are the friends that made you laugh". It is true. And Boris was that person for plenty of Britons
Instead it will be Boring Kir Royale Starmer versus boring Rishi Sunak or Michael Gove or whoever, and it will all seem terribly grey and dull. And we will mourn
I don’t want him going anywhere before 17th December.
Easily Corona
Anagrams are just for fun!
Or the SNP supporters who cheered on the survival of Wendy Alexander on the grounds her replacement might be far more dangerous to them, (amusing though that seems with hindsight)?
The rest of us can wrestle back politics from being a fucking arena for your shits and giggles.
Could easily get 10-20% in the polls and destroy the post-Boris Tories
It would annoy the fuck out of Priti Patel, so there is no actual downside.
... but he had to spoil it all for everyone (including himself) by getting the job.
And the worst of it is that, a bit like Brown, his ambition has napalmed his alternatives.
Would anyone like to bet with me about Labour achieving a double digit lead by the end of 2022?
Also Boris will be gone, if he goes, for having a party. It befits the Merry Monarch. This is not Blair, who went for illegally invading a country and killing half a million people and upending global stability forever
We don’t really have the data for early 2020. But it’s quite instructive to look at what happened in lockdowns 2 and 3. Cases were basically on the floor until we got alpha. There was then a sharp uptick, the second lockdown brought it down but as soon as it was lifted we got the resultant sharp spike up followed by the crash in cases that we’d seen in wave 1. There was no squashed sombrero, only a displacement in time of the spike and crash to later in the winter.
If lockdowns worked we should have seen a squashed sombrero, no? Not a mere shifting right of the spike.
We see from the delta wave what a squished sombrero case load really looks like. Cases grew from almost nothing to a baseline which it has bounced around for half a year. No sudden spike, no sudden crash. But that legitimate squishing has taken place over a period with no restrictions at all. It’s been caused by vaccines.
I know this will irk people but do we have any good evidence that lockdowns achieve much at all other than buying time for a vaccine programme? Seems to me the evidence indicates this can now be the sole justification for NPI, a point missed by many.
Which does rather beg the question asked in the presser. What buggering about has been going on that we have millions of booster doses sitting in fridges rather than in arms, if it was “obvious and inevitable” we’d be seeing new variants? And what is the plan for next time and the time after that, to ensure vaccines are ahead of the game, rather than politicians falling back on the lazy option of NPI to buy extra time. Not just tweaked formulae and supply. But a proactive delivery programme.
No longer needed with the rule changes brought in by Hague.
It is a simple VONC now.
Clive Lewis is a very open minded fellow.
Any chance of a few words from him?
Didn’t someone say a bad announcement or bad week takes up to a couple of weeks to really show in polling?
But still.
https://64.media.tumblr.com/300872acfa93211d6e6531df76af1489/tumblr_oqo0ulrURc1qmj4hbo4_250.gifv
David Davis MP is the self-acknowledged "dark horse" of the Conservative leadership battle, but in the Westminster village he is known by another sobriquet - the thinking man's Tory. Matthew Tempest asks him how he will win the Conservative crown"
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2001/jun/29/conservatives.daviddavis
This may have confused me!
https://twitter.com/MrMichaelSpicer/status/1468691282193227782
And work from home if you can.
It's hardly totalitarian.
In fact, it's barely different.
As for Labour's mere 4% poll lead, even Ed Miliband and Kinnock got far bigger leads than that midterm, let alone Blair
Or do I misunderstand?
The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix will be winner-takes-all for Lewis Hamilton, 36, and Max Verstappen, 24, with the pair level on points in the drivers’ standings. It will be a record eighth title for the Englishman if he wins.
Sky has the rights to show all the races live, while Channel 4 is normally limited to a highlights package, though does broadcast the British Grand Prix live. The Times understands that a deal has been reached in which the satellite broadcaster will share the rights to Sunday’s race.
Channel 4 will do a 30-minute pre-race show and will then switch to Sky’s commentary for the race, which will be followed by another 30-minute show with the Channel 4 team. The terrestrial channel will still air its highlights programme. A deal is expected to be announced on Thursday.]
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/channel-4-to-show-lewis-hamilton-v-max-verstappen-formula-one-finale-in-abu-dhabi-6rlkbvbv0
But we have been locked down. There were several weeks (months?) when the pubs were closed.
The pubs were closed for weeks. In England. A country built upon pubs! Closed. Closed!
If that’s not lockdown, I don’t know what is.
A reason why Thatcher and Blair remain hate figures in many ways is that they weren't defeated in battle. Blair can always say he'd have won in 2010, and Thatcher could always say she'd have got a proper majority (as she had three times) in 1992. And you can never disprove it.
William Wragg getting the scalp cheats the rest of us.
From the reaction, I thought entire sectors had been shuttered and we'd been confined to one exercise a day again.
Nothing has changed! (She might be back soon).
For some reason this is making me think of a nodding donkey.
With musings about compulsory vaccination.
If vaccine passports for large events encourage more people to get vaccinated and avoid hospitalisation all to the good
Needing to text the Police to leave your house is house arrest.
This is the problem with having lockdown last year, we've moved the Overton Window so disgustingly far that people are OK with draconian lockdown measures and think they're not even a form of lockdown.