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If this narrative takes hold then Boris Johnson is doomed – politicalbetting.com

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  • So my terminology has been justly criticised, but has anyone any idea who might be the stalking horse, if one is needed, to bring down Boris?

    I think it'd need to be someone stupid enough to think they were a candidate rather than a stalking horse, so maybe Gavin?

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,274

    BJO says Starmer must resign right? Isn’t that how this goes?

    Would anyone like to bet with me about Labour achieving a double digit lead by the end of 2022?

    Labour will probably have a double digit poll lead by the end of 2021 nevermind 2022 ;)
  • SKS team to the rescue


    Wes Streeting MP
    @wesstreeting
    ·
    21m
    The heckling of the Health Secretary by his own side this evening was ugly and unnecessary.

    We’ve made it clear that Labour will support the measures

    We have no Opposition.

    This @CorrectHorseBattery is why Sir Keir Starmer will never win the next election.
  • Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    For all his manifold flaws - which are now destroying him - he cheered people. Made them smile.

    He gives me the boak. I can't bear to look at him.
    Leon said:

    it will all seem terribly grey and dull. And we will mourn

    Some of us will party. Hard.
    Yes yes whatever you micro-dick Remoaner freak
    Its too early for you be this drunk already
    Depends which time zone he is in. I forget what it's supposed to be. Penarth or Phuket?
    Pascagoula? Pango Pango? Pinsk? Probus?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,661
    Pulpstar said:

    dixiedean said:

    AFAICT, it is masks in theatres, cinemas, night clubs and footy grounds.
    And work from home if you can.
    It's hardly totalitarian.
    In fact, it's barely different.

    Masks in nightclubs ?!?
    No:

    "Settings which are exempt from wearing a face covering include:

    Restaurants, cafés and canteens
    Bars and shisha bars
    Gyms & exercise facilities
    Photography studios
    Nightclubs, dance halls and discotheques"


    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/covid-19-coronavirus-restrictions-what-you-can-and-cannot-do#wear-a-face-covering-
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Channel 4 will broadcast the Formula One season finale live on Sunday after reaching a deal with Sky to share the television rights.

    The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix will be winner-takes-all for Lewis Hamilton, 36, and Max Verstappen, 24, with the pair level on points in the drivers’ standings. It will be a record eighth title for the Englishman if he wins.

    Sky has the rights to show all the races live, while Channel 4 is normally limited to a highlights package, though does broadcast the British Grand Prix live. The Times understands that a deal has been reached in which the satellite broadcaster will share the rights to Sunday’s race.

    Channel 4 will do a 30-minute pre-race show and will then switch to Sky’s commentary for the race, which will be followed by another 30-minute show with the Channel 4 team. The terrestrial channel will still air its highlights programme. A deal is expected to be announced on Thursday.
    ]

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/channel-4-to-show-lewis-hamilton-v-max-verstappen-formula-one-finale-in-abu-dhabi-6rlkbvbv0

    Good news, not sure why Sky would have agreed to it though.
    Amazon did the same with Channel 4 on the US Open women's tennis final. Two reasons:

    1. Goodwill - you seem "nice" for doing it and the marginal upside for not sharing the rights is minimal (most people who are interested in F1 will already have Sky);

    2. You might get extra customers - kind of contradicts the last part of 1 but it's effectively a marketing tool for SKy. "Look at how exciting F1 is. We must subscribe to Sky"
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,400

    HYUFD said:

    There were no extra restrictions announced tonight or any new lockdowns, all that was asked was a perfectly reasonable requirement for vaccine passports for nightclubs and large events and masks to be worn in cinemas and theatres.

    As for Labour's mere 4% poll lead, even Ed Miliband and Kinnock got far bigger leads than that midterm, let alone Blair

    You seem to have forgotten that, as from next week, you must work from home if you can.
    And the trend is of salami tactics taking us towards lockdown.

    With musings about compulsory vaccination.
    There is no salami tactics. That suggests thought and a plan.
    Just a list of cost-free, barely noticeable measures which won't be enforced, to distract from the venal corruption and serial incompetence of this total shower and their vaudeville boss.
    That the usual suspects have lost their shit about basically nowt, shows why Boris keeps doing it.
    He takes us for fools because we keep falling for it.
  • Channel 4 will broadcast the Formula One season finale live on Sunday after reaching a deal with Sky to share the television rights.

    The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix will be winner-takes-all for Lewis Hamilton, 36, and Max Verstappen, 24, with the pair level on points in the drivers’ standings. It will be a record eighth title for the Englishman if he wins.

    Sky has the rights to show all the races live, while Channel 4 is normally limited to a highlights package, though does broadcast the British Grand Prix live. The Times understands that a deal has been reached in which the satellite broadcaster will share the rights to Sunday’s race.

    Channel 4 will do a 30-minute pre-race show and will then switch to Sky’s commentary for the race, which will be followed by another 30-minute show with the Channel 4 team. The terrestrial channel will still air its highlights programme. A deal is expected to be announced on Thursday.
    ]

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/channel-4-to-show-lewis-hamilton-v-max-verstappen-formula-one-finale-in-abu-dhabi-6rlkbvbv0

    Good news, not sure why Sky would have agreed to it though.
    Increase popularity of F1, thus boosting subscriptions for next season. I believe, similarly, Amazon did a deal with Channel Four on US Open Women's Final.
    Ch4 seem to be doing well on these deals. They got the world cup cricket final and the Indian series.

    Is somebody senior at ch4 who used to work for sky sports?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,494

    Pulpstar said:

    dixiedean said:

    AFAICT, it is masks in theatres, cinemas, night clubs and footy grounds.
    And work from home if you can.
    It's hardly totalitarian.
    In fact, it's barely different.

    Masks in nightclubs ?!?
    The best kind of clubs are already compliant...
    Masked Balls!
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    Boris can't last.......

    Time to lay SKS in the next PM market?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839
    dixiedean said:

    AFAICT, it is masks in theatres, cinemas, night clubs and footy grounds.
    And work from home if you can.
    It's hardly totalitarian.
    In fact, it's barely different.

    The problem, of course, is that we have been here before - and, when the Prime Minister says that the cycle of restrictions can't go on indefinitely, either people simply don't believe that (or anything else he says,) or they interpret not indefinitely as meaning it might stop in a hundred years' time.

    Even amongst those of us who think, logically, that lockdowns are a thing of the past because too many people won't obey them and the country can't afford the damage, it's hard not to harbour the fear and suspicion that one more dodgy computer model is all it's going to take to tip the Government into full panic mode. I can hardly help but worry that everything I've so far planned for the New Year is going to be cancelled, and there's consequently no point in booking anything else.

    Covid is taking the form of an endless series of crises, the response to which is always exactly the same. More rules and more restrictions. If rules are applied and they seem to achieve nothing then that's taken as evidence that tighter rules are needed; if rules are applied and they seem to do something then the demand comes for tighter rules so that they will be even more effective. Either way, it's no wonder that so many people are now frightened that Winter 2022 is going to be a straight repetition of Winter 2021 and that the only non-forbidden activities outside of the home will be going to work if you can't do so from home, grocery shopping and taking a dismal, freezing cold walk in some shitty park. Again. Rinse and repeat for Winter 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026.

    It was reported a few days ago that an ONS survey revealed that one in six adults in the UK now believes that this is it: perpetual cycles of mask wearing, testing, distancing and periodic lockdowns are all we have to look forward to. That this is how life is going to be forever. I would imagine, after today, that the figure will be considerably higher. People are giving up, and who can honestly blame them?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,989
    edited December 2021
    Pulpstar said:

    One good thing about omicron. Might put a dent in inflation.

    Temporarily....all the money printing, especially in the US, it can only go one way.

    The idiots who advised Biden that inflation had been solved by western countries....it was their own ended boom and bust moment.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,661
    Covid passports required for all football matches with crowds over 10,000 from 15 December. That's going to take some checking at the big grounds.

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/covid-19-coronavirus-restrictions-what-you-can-and-cannot-do#required-use-of-the-nhs-covid-pass
  • HYUFD said:

    There were no extra restrictions announced tonight or any new lockdowns, all that was asked was a perfectly reasonable requirement for vaccine passports for nightclubs and large events and masks to be worn in cinemas and theatres.

    As for Labour's mere 4% poll lead, even Ed Miliband and Kinnock got far bigger leads than that midterm, let alone Blair

    You seem to have forgotten that, as from next week, you must work from home if you can.
    I'm looking forward to that. Work tends to get in the way of getting pissed, and I have found that WFH mitigates that.
  • HYUFD said:

    There were no extra restrictions announced tonight or any new lockdowns, all that was asked was a perfectly reasonable requirement for vaccine passports for nightclubs and large events and masks to be worn in cinemas and theatres.

    As for Labour's mere 4% poll lead, even Ed Miliband and Kinnock got far bigger leads than that midterm, let alone Blair

    Your problem is that every mistake is coming from idiotic levels of thoughtlessness.

    Not a lack of thought for the proles (that's a given) but a lack of thought about how damaging these actions will be for themselves.

    If that doesn't stop then you will keep losing support.

    Someone needs to start saying No to Boris and Boris needs to start saying No to Carrie.

    And if they don't they have to go - responsibility is required now not a pair of spoilt brats.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,078
    edited December 2021
    HYUFD said:

    There were no extra restrictions announced tonight or any new lockdowns, all that was asked was a perfectly reasonable requirement for vaccine passports for nightclubs and large events and masks to be worn in cinemas and theatres.

    As for Labour's mere 4% poll lead, even Ed Miliband and Kinnock got far bigger leads than that midterm, let alone Blair

    Surely you must now see that you are simply whistling in the dark. NS looks very bad indeed for the Blues (and several bookies are now offering odds on for the Lib Dems to win there). Losing an unnecessary by election will cause further fury amongst the Parliamentary Tories and the letters to Sir Graham will come in a blizzard.
  • R is 3.67 for omi in SA at moment.

  • So my terminology has been justly criticised, but has anyone any idea who might be the stalking horse, if one is needed, to bring down Boris?

    I think it'd need to be someone stupid enough to think they were a candidate rather than a stalking horse, so maybe Gavin?

    As far as I’m aware, it doesn’t work like that anymore. The 1922 has to get the letters and the VONC has to pass first before a leadership election can take place.

    I could conceivably (just) see the letters going in if there are a few more days of drip-drip. Not sure I see a VONC passing at this stage. Although I don’t doubt a number of Tory MPs are angry, I don’t think we’ve quite reached tipping point yet. But give it time. There might be more to come.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,215
    edited December 2021

    HYUFD said:

    There were no extra restrictions announced tonight or any new lockdowns, all that was asked was a perfectly reasonable requirement for vaccine passports for nightclubs and large events and masks to be worn in cinemas and theatres.

    How are those not 'extra restrictions'?
    HYUFD said:


    As for Labour's mere 4% poll lead, even Ed Miliband and Kinnock got far bigger leads than that midterm, let alone Blair

    But for consistency, I assume you are going to give us Commons seat forecast based on this latest poll?
    New boundaries:
    Con 272
    Lab 285
    Lib Dem 17
    SNP 55

    And Uxbridge + S Ruislip flips

    This is, of course, a bit of fun.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=34&LAB=38&LIB=11&Reform=5&Green=6&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=20.5&SCOTLAB=19&SCOTLIB=6.5&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    pigeon said:

    dixiedean said:

    AFAICT, it is masks in theatres, cinemas, night clubs and footy grounds.
    And work from home if you can.
    It's hardly totalitarian.
    In fact, it's barely different.

    The problem, of course, is that we have been here before - and, when the Prime Minister says that the cycle of restrictions can't go on indefinitely, either people simply don't believe that (or anything else he says,) or they interpret not indefinitely as meaning it might stop in a hundred years' time.

    Even amongst those of us who think, logically, that lockdowns are a thing of the past because too many people won't obey them and the country can't afford the damage, it's hard not to harbour the fear and suspicion that one more dodgy computer model is all it's going to take to tip the Government into full panic mode. I can hardly help but worry that everything I've so far planned for the New Year is going to be cancelled, and there's consequently no point in booking anything else.

    Covid is taking the form of an endless series of crises, the response to which is always exactly the same. More rules and more restrictions. If rules are applied and they seem to achieve nothing then that's taken as evidence that tighter rules are needed; if rules are applied and they seem to do something then the demand comes for tighter rules so that they will be even more effective. Either way, it's no wonder that so many people are now frightened that Winter 2022 is going to be a straight repetition of Winter 2021 and that the only non-forbidden activities outside of the home will be going to work if you can't do so from home, grocery shopping and taking a dismal, freezing cold walk in some shitty park. Again. Rinse and repeat for Winter 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026.

    It was reported a few days ago that an ONS survey revealed that one in six adults in the UK now believes that this is it: perpetual cycles of mask wearing, testing, distancing and periodic lockdowns are all we have to look forward to. That this is how life is going to be forever. I would imagine, after today, that the figure will be considerably higher. People are giving up, and who can honestly blame them?
    I did try to warn you this was coming, that the OMICRON was gonna freak everyone out. You loudly chortled
  • Farooq said:

    Don't we (traditionally) need a 'dark horse' in the Conservatives to bring down the PM so they can then vote someone else who wasn't treacherous in? Who could that be this time? Or has Boris debased himself so badly that the dark horse isn't needed?

    Don't confuse your dark- and stalking-horses
    "The dark horse emerges
    David Davis MP is the self-acknowledged "dark horse" of the Conservative leadership battle, but in the Westminster village he is known by another sobriquet - the thinking man's Tory. Matthew Tempest asks him how he will win the Conservative crown"
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2001/jun/29/conservatives.daviddavis

    This may have confused me!
    I thought that Boris was the comic relief in this farce?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375

    SKS team to the rescue


    Wes Streeting MP
    @wesstreeting
    ·
    21m
    The heckling of the Health Secretary by his own side this evening was ugly and unnecessary.

    We’ve made it clear that Labour will support the measures

    We have no Opposition.

    This @CorrectHorseBattery is why Sir Keir Starmer will never win the next election.
    You want the opposition to agree with you. But they don't. On the broad thrust of public health measures, they've agreed with the government (and the scientific advice) since Covid came into view. As have all the opposition parties. If they had opposed the public health measures just for the sake of opposing, they'd be in a much worse position now, because the public would not think Labour was a serious party. There's plenty of other things to oppose the government on, and Labour are getting better at that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,912
    edited December 2021

    HYUFD said:

    There were no extra restrictions announced tonight or any new lockdowns, all that was asked was a perfectly reasonable requirement for vaccine passports for nightclubs and large events and masks to be worn in cinemas and theatres.

    As for Labour's mere 4% poll lead, even Ed Miliband and Kinnock got far bigger leads than that midterm, let alone Blair

    Your problem is that every mistake is coming from idiotic levels of thoughtlessness.

    Not a lack of thought for the proles (that's a given) but a lack of thought about how damaging these actions will be for themselves.

    If that doesn't stop then you will keep losing support.

    Someone needs to start saying No to Boris and Boris needs to start saying No to Carrie.

    And if they don't they have to go - responsibility is required now not a pair of spoilt brats.
    Boris was not even at this party, this is just attacks by the left liberal media to get rid of him.

    The level of treachery by some backbencher MPs who owe their seats to Boris makes me as angry as the traitors who got rid of Maggie, our greatest leader since Churchill. We had to wait until Boris to get an election victory of the size she won.

    I am furious tonight and if these traitors think they can get rid of Boris with no consequences they have another thing coming.

  • MrEd said:

    Channel 4 will broadcast the Formula One season finale live on Sunday after reaching a deal with Sky to share the television rights.

    The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix will be winner-takes-all for Lewis Hamilton, 36, and Max Verstappen, 24, with the pair level on points in the drivers’ standings. It will be a record eighth title for the Englishman if he wins.

    Sky has the rights to show all the races live, while Channel 4 is normally limited to a highlights package, though does broadcast the British Grand Prix live. The Times understands that a deal has been reached in which the satellite broadcaster will share the rights to Sunday’s race.

    Channel 4 will do a 30-minute pre-race show and will then switch to Sky’s commentary for the race, which will be followed by another 30-minute show with the Channel 4 team. The terrestrial channel will still air its highlights programme. A deal is expected to be announced on Thursday.
    ]

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/channel-4-to-show-lewis-hamilton-v-max-verstappen-formula-one-finale-in-abu-dhabi-6rlkbvbv0

    Good news, not sure why Sky would have agreed to it though.
    Amazon did the same with Channel 4 on the US Open women's tennis final. Two reasons:

    1. Goodwill - you seem "nice" for doing it and the marginal upside for not sharing the rights is minimal (most people who are interested in F1 will already have Sky);

    2. You might get extra customers - kind of contradicts the last part of 1 but it's effectively a marketing tool for SKy. "Look at how exciting F1 is. We must subscribe to Sky"
    3. It removes pressure for the sport discussed to end up on the Listed and Designated Events list which would mean it can't be shown commercially behind a paywall anymore.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,661
    HYUFD said:

    Don't we (traditionally) need a 'dark horse' in the Conservatives to bring down the PM so they can then vote someone else who wasn't treacherous in? Who could that be this time? Or has Boris debased himself so badly that the dark horse isn't needed?

    Isn't it traditionally a stalking horse rather than a dark horse?
    Wasn't Sir Anthony Meyer a stalking dark horse ?

    For some reason this is making me think of a nodding donkey.
    It was the traitors who got rid of Maggie despite owing their seats to her who condemned the party to losing 3 out of 4 of the following general elections and it will be the traitors trying to get rid of Boris despite owing their seats to him who will condemn the party to years of opposition too.

    Such treachery will neither be forgiven nor forgotten by me or many others if it succeeds
    I am sure the next PM will be devastated to lose your support. Although, you will of course flip back int line after a day or two.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,148

    Covid passports required for all football matches with crowds over 10,000 from 15 December. That's going to take some checking at the big grounds.

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/covid-19-coronavirus-restrictions-what-you-can-and-cannot-do#required-use-of-the-nhs-covid-pass

    Presumably that was the cutoff so that Chelsea fans wouldn't need to bother.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,148

    Covid passports required for all football matches with crowds over 10,000 from 15 December. That's going to take some checking at the big grounds.

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/covid-19-coronavirus-restrictions-what-you-can-and-cannot-do#required-use-of-the-nhs-covid-pass

    I was at an LA Rams game (70,000 seat stadium) and they did Vaxport checks (inluding with ID) on the way in. And it was a total crush.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    R is 3.67 for omi in SA at moment.

    What is Delta, for comparison, in SA? Do you know?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,912

    HYUFD said:

    There were no extra restrictions announced tonight or any new lockdowns, all that was asked was a perfectly reasonable requirement for vaccine passports for nightclubs and large events and masks to be worn in cinemas and theatres.

    How are those not 'extra restrictions'?
    HYUFD said:


    As for Labour's mere 4% poll lead, even Ed Miliband and Kinnock got far bigger leads than that midterm, let alone Blair

    But for consistency, I assume you are going to give us Commons seat forecast based on this latest poll?
    New boundaries:
    Con 272
    Lab 285
    Lib Dem 17
    SNP 55

    And Uxbridge + S Ruislip flips

    This is, of course, a bit of fun.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=34&LAB=38&LIB=11&Reform=5&Green=6&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=20.5&SCOTLAB=19&SCOTLIB=6.5&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
    Still miles from a Labour majority even after all this
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747

    Covid passports required for all football matches with crowds over 10,000 from 15 December. That's going to take some checking at the big grounds.

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/covid-19-coronavirus-restrictions-what-you-can-and-cannot-do#required-use-of-the-nhs-covid-pass

    Lol at the idea of vax passports at Wembley when they can’t even stop you entering without a ticket, a backpack full of Charlie and a firework up your arse.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Next PM betting:

    Putting aside the question of whether Raab would qualify as the next PM when it comes to the betting iof BJ was to step down, where does the value lie / not lie?

    The constituency that decides this will be the MPs and that base has changed significantly since 2019. It is a lot more Red Wall, more pro-Brexit, more "Blue Tory". My guess is they will also be able to count on the anti-lockdown group (so people like Baker, Brady etc) as a lot of their agendas overlap. That would be a difficult block to beat.

    My guess is there will be two drivers as to whom they support (1) who supports the 'Blue Wall' agenda and (2) who would be most likely to keep them their seats.

    Sunak probably ticks point 2 but not point 1, arguably far less so although he is a consummate politician and he can point to the furlough scheme. Truss qualifies on neither, same goes for Gove and for Hunt. Javid could fit both, Patel would fit (1) but there is a question on (2).

    I'd be going for the long shots in the next race.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Are there any anti lockdown Labour MPs? It would be interesting to hear from a left-libertarian in our political class.

    Clive Lewis is a very open minded fellow.

    Any chance of a few words from him?

    There isn't any need. Since we never have been locked down. Nor is anyone suggesting it. That's why you're in the pub.
    We are not locked down now.

    But we have been locked down. There were several weeks (months?) when the pubs were closed.

    The pubs were closed for weeks. In England. A country built upon pubs! Closed. Closed!

    If that’s not lockdown, I don’t know what is.
    A lockdown is needing to text the police to leave your house. Which is enforced. Pubs shut is closed pubs.
    You're indulging in semantics. One might just as well argue that your example isn't lockdown either - lockdown is welding everybody's doors and windows shut so they can't escape at all.

    I think there's a generally accepted definition of what a lockdown is and the March 2020 scenario, where people (especially the retired and those able to work from home) were expected not to leave the house most of the time, fits.
  • moonshine said:

    Ironically the tiered system did the square root of fuck all in stopping covid.

    Nothing stops Covid other than lockdowns and vaccines.

    We can't stop Covid. We've got the vaccines, so now we have to let it spread. No to lockdowns, no to restrictions.
    It’s timely to remember the purpose of the initial lockdown. “To flatten the curve, squash the sombrero”. It wasn’t to reduce the total number of cases but to displace them in time so they occurred over a longer period, to make it more manageable for the health service.

    We don’t really have the data for early 2020. But it’s quite instructive to look at what happened in lockdowns 2 and 3. Cases were basically on the floor until we got alpha. There was then a sharp uptick, the second lockdown brought it down but as soon as it was lifted we got the resultant sharp spike up followed by the crash in cases that we’d seen in wave 1. There was no squashed sombrero, only a displacement in time of the spike and crash to later in the winter.

    If lockdowns worked we should have seen a squashed sombrero, no? Not a mere shifting right of the spike.

    We see from the delta wave what a squished sombrero case load really looks like. Cases grew from almost nothing to a baseline which it has bounced around for half a year. No sudden spike, no sudden crash. But that legitimate squishing has taken place over a period with no restrictions at all. It’s been caused by vaccines.

    I know this will irk people but do we have any good evidence that lockdowns achieve much at all other than buying time for a vaccine programme? Seems to me the evidence indicates this can now be the sole justification for NPI, a point missed by many.

    Which does rather beg the question asked in the presser. What buggering about has been going on that we have millions of booster doses sitting in fridges rather than in arms, if it was “obvious and inevitable” we’d be seeing new variants? And what is the plan for next time and the time after that, to ensure vaccines are ahead of the game, rather than politicians falling back on the lazy option of NPI to buy extra time. Not just tweaked formulae and supply. But a proactive delivery programme.
    One thing I'm curious about is that there were reports that possible new variants of covid could be preicted:

    https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210624/Scientists-predict-driver-mutations-of-future-SARS-CoV-2-variants-of-concern.aspx

    I wonder if Omicron was among these predicted possibilities.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,706
    edited December 2021

    Channel 4 will broadcast the Formula One season finale live on Sunday after reaching a deal with Sky to share the television rights.

    The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix will be winner-takes-all for Lewis Hamilton, 36, and Max Verstappen, 24, with the pair level on points in the drivers’ standings. It will be a record eighth title for the Englishman if he wins.

    Sky has the rights to show all the races live, while Channel 4 is normally limited to a highlights package, though does broadcast the British Grand Prix live. The Times understands that a deal has been reached in which the satellite broadcaster will share the rights to Sunday’s race.

    Channel 4 will do a 30-minute pre-race show and will then switch to Sky’s commentary for the race, which will be followed by another 30-minute show with the Channel 4 team. The terrestrial channel will still air its highlights programme. A deal is expected to be announced on Thursday.
    ]

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/channel-4-to-show-lewis-hamilton-v-max-verstappen-formula-one-finale-in-abu-dhabi-6rlkbvbv0

    Good news, not sure why Sky would have agreed to it though.
    Increase popularity of F1, thus boosting subscriptions for next season. I believe, similarly, Amazon did a deal with Channel Four on US Open Women's Final.
    Plus C4 will be paying Sky a fee.

    And possibly a substantial one - it was reported C4 outbid ITV for the right to simulcast Amazon's US Open Final.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,912

    HYUFD said:

    Don't we (traditionally) need a 'dark horse' in the Conservatives to bring down the PM so they can then vote someone else who wasn't treacherous in? Who could that be this time? Or has Boris debased himself so badly that the dark horse isn't needed?

    Isn't it traditionally a stalking horse rather than a dark horse?
    Wasn't Sir Anthony Meyer a stalking dark horse ?

    For some reason this is making me think of a nodding donkey.
    It was the traitors who got rid of Maggie despite owing their seats to her who condemned the party to losing 3 out of 4 of the following general elections and it will be the traitors trying to get rid of Boris despite owing their seats to him who will condemn the party to years of opposition too.

    Such treachery will neither be forgiven nor forgotten by me or many others if it succeeds
    I am sure the next PM will be devastated to lose your support. Although, you will of course flip back int line after a day or two.
    It took the party 15 years to recover from the treacherous assassination of Maggie, it would take the party just as long to recover from the treacherous assassination of Boris.

    Look at Labour too, 14 years after it forced Blair out it has still not won a general election since
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    There were no extra restrictions announced tonight or any new lockdowns, all that was asked was a perfectly reasonable requirement for vaccine passports for nightclubs and large events and masks to be worn in cinemas and theatres.

    As for Labour's mere 4% poll lead, even Ed Miliband and Kinnock got far bigger leads than that midterm, let alone Blair

    Your problem is that every mistake is coming from idiotic levels of thoughtlessness.

    Not a lack of thought for the proles (that's a given) but a lack of thought about how damaging these actions will be for themselves.

    If that doesn't stop then you will keep losing support.

    Someone needs to start saying No to Boris and Boris needs to start saying No to Carrie.

    And if they don't they have to go - responsibility is required now not a pair of spoilt brats.
    Boris was not even at this party, this is just attacks by the left liberal media to get rid of him.

    The level of treachery by some backbencher MPs who owe their seats to Boris makes me as angry as the traitors who got rid of Maggie, our greatest leader since Churchill. We had to wait until Boris to get an election victory of the size she won.

    I am furious tonight and if these traitors think they can get rid of Boris with no consequences they have another thing coming.

    Well, that's a first. I never thought I'd see the Mail referred to as the left liberal media.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    MrEd said:

    Channel 4 will broadcast the Formula One season finale live on Sunday after reaching a deal with Sky to share the television rights.

    The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix will be winner-takes-all for Lewis Hamilton, 36, and Max Verstappen, 24, with the pair level on points in the drivers’ standings. It will be a record eighth title for the Englishman if he wins.

    Sky has the rights to show all the races live, while Channel 4 is normally limited to a highlights package, though does broadcast the British Grand Prix live. The Times understands that a deal has been reached in which the satellite broadcaster will share the rights to Sunday’s race.

    Channel 4 will do a 30-minute pre-race show and will then switch to Sky’s commentary for the race, which will be followed by another 30-minute show with the Channel 4 team. The terrestrial channel will still air its highlights programme. A deal is expected to be announced on Thursday.
    ]

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/channel-4-to-show-lewis-hamilton-v-max-verstappen-formula-one-finale-in-abu-dhabi-6rlkbvbv0

    Good news, not sure why Sky would have agreed to it though.
    Amazon did the same with Channel 4 on the US Open women's tennis final. Two reasons:

    1. Goodwill - you seem "nice" for doing it and the marginal upside for not sharing the rights is minimal (most people who are interested in F1 will already have Sky);

    2. You might get extra customers - kind of contradicts the last part of 1 but it's effectively a marketing tool for SKy. "Look at how exciting F1 is. We must subscribe to Sky"
    3. It removes pressure for the sport discussed to end up on the Listed and Designated Events list which would mean it can't be shown commercially behind a paywall anymore.
    True although F1 is not really seen as one of the "must have" FTA sports.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    dixiedean said:

    AFAICT, it is masks in theatres, cinemas, night clubs and footy grounds.
    And work from home if you can.
    It's hardly totalitarian.
    In fact, it's barely different.

    The problem, of course, is that we have been here before - and, when the Prime Minister says that the cycle of restrictions can't go on indefinitely, either people simply don't believe that (or anything else he says,) or they interpret not indefinitely as meaning it might stop in a hundred years' time.

    Even amongst those of us who think, logically, that lockdowns are a thing of the past because too many people won't obey them and the country can't afford the damage, it's hard not to harbour the fear and suspicion that one more dodgy computer model is all it's going to take to tip the Government into full panic mode. I can hardly help but worry that everything I've so far planned for the New Year is going to be cancelled, and there's consequently no point in booking anything else.

    Covid is taking the form of an endless series of crises, the response to which is always exactly the same. More rules and more restrictions. If rules are applied and they seem to achieve nothing then that's taken as evidence that tighter rules are needed; if rules are applied and they seem to do something then the demand comes for tighter rules so that they will be even more effective. Either way, it's no wonder that so many people are now frightened that Winter 2022 is going to be a straight repetition of Winter 2021 and that the only non-forbidden activities outside of the home will be going to work if you can't do so from home, grocery shopping and taking a dismal, freezing cold walk in some shitty park. Again. Rinse and repeat for Winter 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026.

    It was reported a few days ago that an ONS survey revealed that one in six adults in the UK now believes that this is it: perpetual cycles of mask wearing, testing, distancing and periodic lockdowns are all we have to look forward to. That this is how life is going to be forever. I would imagine, after today, that the figure will be considerably higher. People are giving up, and who can honestly blame them?
    I did try to warn you this was coming, that the OMICRON was gonna freak everyone out. You loudly chortled
    Meanwhile South Africa appears to be what exactly? Omicron has become the dominant variant and there does not yet appear to be a lot of severe cases. Nearing two weeks since it was first identified - and how long had it been around before then?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    There were no extra restrictions announced tonight or any new lockdowns, all that was asked was a perfectly reasonable requirement for vaccine passports for nightclubs and large events and masks to be worn in cinemas and theatres.

    As for Labour's mere 4% poll lead, even Ed Miliband and Kinnock got far bigger leads than that midterm, let alone Blair

    Your problem is that every mistake is coming from idiotic levels of thoughtlessness.

    Not a lack of thought for the proles (that's a given) but a lack of thought about how damaging these actions will be for themselves.

    If that doesn't stop then you will keep losing support.

    Someone needs to start saying No to Boris and Boris needs to start saying No to Carrie.

    And if they don't they have to go - responsibility is required now not a pair of spoilt brats.
    Boris was not even at this party, this is just attacks by the left liberal media to get rid of him.

    The level of treachery by some backbencher MPs who owe their seats to Boris makes me as angry as the traitors who got rid of Maggie, our greatest leader since Churchill. We had to wait until Boris to get an election victory of the size she won.

    I am furious tonight and if these traitors think they can get rid of Boris with no consequences they have another thing coming.

    “Boris wasn’t even at this party”. The party that took place in his house. While he was in his house. Whoops I thought there was no party??
  • Pulpstar said:

    dixiedean said:

    AFAICT, it is masks in theatres, cinemas, night clubs and footy grounds.
    And work from home if you can.
    It's hardly totalitarian.
    In fact, it's barely different.

    Masks in nightclubs ?!?
    No:

    "Settings which are exempt from wearing a face covering include:

    Restaurants, cafés and canteens
    Bars and shisha bars
    Gyms & exercise facilities
    Photography studios
    Nightclubs, dance halls and discotheques"


    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/covid-19-coronavirus-restrictions-what-you-can-and-cannot-do#wear-a-face-covering-
    That's not what Boris said... why am I not surprised
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,040
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    There were no extra restrictions announced tonight or any new lockdowns, all that was asked was a perfectly reasonable requirement for vaccine passports for nightclubs and large events and masks to be worn in cinemas and theatres.

    How are those not 'extra restrictions'?
    HYUFD said:


    As for Labour's mere 4% poll lead, even Ed Miliband and Kinnock got far bigger leads than that midterm, let alone Blair

    But for consistency, I assume you are going to give us Commons seat forecast based on this latest poll?
    New boundaries:
    Con 272
    Lab 285
    Lib Dem 17
    SNP 55

    And Uxbridge + S Ruislip flips

    This is, of course, a bit of fun.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=34&LAB=38&LIB=11&Reform=5&Green=6&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=20.5&SCOTLAB=19&SCOTLIB=6.5&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
    Still miles from a Labour majority even after all this
    A poll that suggests the SNP will win Orkney and Shetland is way of base.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,912

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    There were no extra restrictions announced tonight or any new lockdowns, all that was asked was a perfectly reasonable requirement for vaccine passports for nightclubs and large events and masks to be worn in cinemas and theatres.

    As for Labour's mere 4% poll lead, even Ed Miliband and Kinnock got far bigger leads than that midterm, let alone Blair

    Your problem is that every mistake is coming from idiotic levels of thoughtlessness.

    Not a lack of thought for the proles (that's a given) but a lack of thought about how damaging these actions will be for themselves.

    If that doesn't stop then you will keep losing support.

    Someone needs to start saying No to Boris and Boris needs to start saying No to Carrie.

    And if they don't they have to go - responsibility is required now not a pair of spoilt brats.
    Boris was not even at this party, this is just attacks by the left liberal media to get rid of him.

    The level of treachery by some backbencher MPs who owe their seats to Boris makes me as angry as the traitors who got rid of Maggie, our greatest leader since Churchill. We had to wait until Boris to get an election victory of the size she won.

    I am furious tonight and if these traitors think they can get rid of Boris with no consequences they have another thing coming.

    Well, that's a first. I never thought I'd see the Mail referred to as the left liberal media.
    It backed Ken Clarke in 2001 and its editor until recently was fiercely anti Boris
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,989
    edited December 2021

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    dixiedean said:

    AFAICT, it is masks in theatres, cinemas, night clubs and footy grounds.
    And work from home if you can.
    It's hardly totalitarian.
    In fact, it's barely different.

    The problem, of course, is that we have been here before - and, when the Prime Minister says that the cycle of restrictions can't go on indefinitely, either people simply don't believe that (or anything else he says,) or they interpret not indefinitely as meaning it might stop in a hundred years' time.

    Even amongst those of us who think, logically, that lockdowns are a thing of the past because too many people won't obey them and the country can't afford the damage, it's hard not to harbour the fear and suspicion that one more dodgy computer model is all it's going to take to tip the Government into full panic mode. I can hardly help but worry that everything I've so far planned for the New Year is going to be cancelled, and there's consequently no point in booking anything else.

    Covid is taking the form of an endless series of crises, the response to which is always exactly the same. More rules and more restrictions. If rules are applied and they seem to achieve nothing then that's taken as evidence that tighter rules are needed; if rules are applied and they seem to do something then the demand comes for tighter rules so that they will be even more effective. Either way, it's no wonder that so many people are now frightened that Winter 2022 is going to be a straight repetition of Winter 2021 and that the only non-forbidden activities outside of the home will be going to work if you can't do so from home, grocery shopping and taking a dismal, freezing cold walk in some shitty park. Again. Rinse and repeat for Winter 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026.

    It was reported a few days ago that an ONS survey revealed that one in six adults in the UK now believes that this is it: perpetual cycles of mask wearing, testing, distancing and periodic lockdowns are all we have to look forward to. That this is how life is going to be forever. I would imagine, after today, that the figure will be considerably higher. People are giving up, and who can honestly blame them?
    I did try to warn you this was coming, that the OMICRON was gonna freak everyone out. You loudly chortled
    Meanwhile South Africa appears to be what exactly? Omicron has become the dominant variant and there does not yet appear to be a lot of severe cases. Nearing two weeks since it was first identified - and how long had it been around before then?
    Witty stated that conversation with his opposite numbers in South Africa, that unofficial* hospitalisation figures are up 300% in a week. And remember most of the initial outbreak has been in the 10-30 year olds.

    * the official ones are notoriously slow and have to be backfilled weeks after the fact.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,912
    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    There were no extra restrictions announced tonight or any new lockdowns, all that was asked was a perfectly reasonable requirement for vaccine passports for nightclubs and large events and masks to be worn in cinemas and theatres.

    As for Labour's mere 4% poll lead, even Ed Miliband and Kinnock got far bigger leads than that midterm, let alone Blair

    Your problem is that every mistake is coming from idiotic levels of thoughtlessness.

    Not a lack of thought for the proles (that's a given) but a lack of thought about how damaging these actions will be for themselves.

    If that doesn't stop then you will keep losing support.

    Someone needs to start saying No to Boris and Boris needs to start saying No to Carrie.

    And if they don't they have to go - responsibility is required now not a pair of spoilt brats.
    Boris was not even at this party, this is just attacks by the left liberal media to get rid of him.

    The level of treachery by some backbencher MPs who owe their seats to Boris makes me as angry as the traitors who got rid of Maggie, our greatest leader since Churchill. We had to wait until Boris to get an election victory of the size she won.

    I am furious tonight and if these traitors think they can get rid of Boris with no consequences they have another thing coming.

    “Boris wasn’t even at this party”. The party that took place in his house. While he was in his house. Whoops I thought there was no party??
    It was not at his house, No 10 belongs to the state as the office of the PM, it does not belong to Boris and he cannot follow No 10 staff 24/7
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    So my terminology has been justly criticised, but has anyone any idea who might be the stalking horse, if one is needed, to bring down Boris?

    I think it'd need to be someone stupid enough to think they were a candidate rather than a stalking horse, so maybe Gavin?

    As far as I’m aware, it doesn’t work like that anymore. The 1922 has to get the letters and the VONC has to pass first before a leadership election can take place.

    I could conceivably (just) see the letters going in if there are a few more days of drip-drip. Not sure I see a VONC passing at this stage. Although I don’t doubt a number of Tory MPs are angry, I don’t think we’ve quite reached tipping point yet. But give it time. There might be more to come.
    Bear in mind we are approaching Christmas. This year has been odd because it doesn't really feel like businesses are slowing down for the break but we will get there and, once people are focused on Christmas, then most people will be distracted by their usual Christmas chores and everything else.

    If BJ can get through to next Friday, he is probably safer for a lot longer than you think.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    edited December 2021
    MrEd said:

    Next PM betting:

    Putting aside the question of whether Raab would qualify as the next PM when it comes to the betting iof BJ was to step down, where does the value lie / not lie?

    The constituency that decides this will be the MPs and that base has changed significantly since 2019. It is a lot more Red Wall, more pro-Brexit, more "Blue Tory". My guess is they will also be able to count on the anti-lockdown group (so people like Baker, Brady etc) as a lot of their agendas overlap. That would be a difficult block to beat.

    My guess is there will be two drivers as to whom they support (1) who supports the 'Blue Wall' agenda and (2) who would be most likely to keep them their seats.

    Sunak probably ticks point 2 but not point 1, arguably far less so although he is a consummate politician and he can point to the furlough scheme. Truss qualifies on neither, same goes for Gove and for Hunt. Javid could fit both, Patel would fit (1) but there is a question on (2).

    I'd be going for the long shots in the next race.

    Essentially the next PM (if there’s a vacancy) needs to be able to present themselves as Boris, but more competent. I suspect there is little appetite in the PCP to change direction completely. But they’ll want someone who can really put a rocket booster under levelling up, infrastructure, red wall investment etc etc.

    Sunak as the one holding the purse strings for all that probably fits the bill better than Truss, just on a quick reading of the situation, but she is probably more popular amongst the blue rinse brigade and she’s not done anything to expressly rule herself out of that position.

    If I were both of them I’d be checking the diaries to see if I could get some dental appointments booked in while the storm brews…
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    There were no extra restrictions announced tonight or any new lockdowns, all that was asked was a perfectly reasonable requirement for vaccine passports for nightclubs and large events and masks to be worn in cinemas and theatres.

    As for Labour's mere 4% poll lead, even Ed Miliband and Kinnock got far bigger leads than that midterm, let alone Blair

    Your problem is that every mistake is coming from idiotic levels of thoughtlessness.

    Not a lack of thought for the proles (that's a given) but a lack of thought about how damaging these actions will be for themselves.

    If that doesn't stop then you will keep losing support.

    Someone needs to start saying No to Boris and Boris needs to start saying No to Carrie.

    And if they don't they have to go - responsibility is required now not a pair of spoilt brats.
    Boris was not even at this party, this is just attacks by the left liberal media to get rid of him.

    The level of treachery by some backbencher MPs who owe their seats to Boris makes me as angry as the traitors who got rid of Maggie, our greatest leader since Churchill. We had to wait until Boris to get an election victory of the size she won.

    I am furious tonight and if these traitors think they can get rid of Boris with no consequences they have another thing coming.

    “Boris wasn’t even at this party”. The party that took place in his house. While he was in his house. Whoops I thought there was no party??
    It was not at his house, No 10 belongs to the state as the office of the PM, it does not belong to Boris and he cannot follow No 10 staff 24/7
    One day when you are no longer in the fog of war, you’re going to look back at this and be embarrassed by your position.
  • We have objectively our best opposition as rated since Blair. Good enough for me
  • MrEd said:

    Next PM betting:

    Putting aside the question of whether Raab would qualify as the next PM when it comes to the betting iof BJ was to step down, where does the value lie / not lie?

    The constituency that decides this will be the MPs and that base has changed significantly since 2019. It is a lot more Red Wall, more pro-Brexit, more "Blue Tory". My guess is they will also be able to count on the anti-lockdown group (so people like Baker, Brady etc) as a lot of their agendas overlap. That would be a difficult block to beat.

    My guess is there will be two drivers as to whom they support (1) who supports the 'Blue Wall' agenda and (2) who would be most likely to keep them their seats.

    Sunak probably ticks point 2 but not point 1, arguably far less so although he is a consummate politician and he can point to the furlough scheme. Truss qualifies on neither, same goes for Gove and for Hunt. Javid could fit both, Patel would fit (1) but there is a question on (2).

    I'd be going for the long shots in the next race.

    My dark horse bet remains Penny M.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    Pulpstar said:

    One good thing about omicron. Might put a dent in inflation.

    Nah, financial markets pretty clearly indicating Omicron has only become a UK problem because Boris needed to protect himself today. No where else is engaging in this sort of bizarre pantomime, announcing a package of measures which have barely any effect other than to needlessly destroy confidence and worry people. Bringing England in to line with the failed policies of the celtic fringe in a way which will make bugger all difference to spread.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,912
    edited December 2021
    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    There were no extra restrictions announced tonight or any new lockdowns, all that was asked was a perfectly reasonable requirement for vaccine passports for nightclubs and large events and masks to be worn in cinemas and theatres.

    As for Labour's mere 4% poll lead, even Ed Miliband and Kinnock got far bigger leads than that midterm, let alone Blair

    Your problem is that every mistake is coming from idiotic levels of thoughtlessness.

    Not a lack of thought for the proles (that's a given) but a lack of thought about how damaging these actions will be for themselves.

    If that doesn't stop then you will keep losing support.

    Someone needs to start saying No to Boris and Boris needs to start saying No to Carrie.

    And if they don't they have to go - responsibility is required now not a pair of spoilt brats.
    Boris was not even at this party, this is just attacks by the left liberal media to get rid of him.

    The level of treachery by some backbencher MPs who owe their seats to Boris makes me as angry as the traitors who got rid of Maggie, our greatest leader since Churchill. We had to wait until Boris to get an election victory of the size she won.

    I am furious tonight and if these traitors think they can get rid of Boris with no consequences they have another thing coming.

    “Boris wasn’t even at this party”. The party that took place in his house. While he was in his house. Whoops I thought there was no party??
    It was not at his house, No 10 belongs to the state as the office of the PM, it does not belong to Boris and he cannot follow No 10 staff 24/7
    One day when you are no longer in the fog of war, you’re going to look back at this and be embarrassed by your position.
    Never, the political war with the left is neverending
  • HYUFD said:

    Don't we (traditionally) need a 'dark horse' in the Conservatives to bring down the PM so they can then vote someone else who wasn't treacherous in? Who could that be this time? Or has Boris debased himself so badly that the dark horse isn't needed?

    Isn't it traditionally a stalking horse rather than a dark horse?
    Wasn't Sir Anthony Meyer a stalking dark horse ?

    For some reason this is making me think of a nodding donkey.
    It was the traitors who got rid of Maggie despite owing their seats to her who condemned the party to losing 3 out of 4 of the following general elections and it will be the traitors trying to get rid of Boris despite owing their seats to him who will condemn the party to years of opposition too.

    Such treachery will neither be forgiven nor forgotten by me or many others if it succeeds
    If it succeeds you will be irrelevant
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355
    .

    Are there any anti lockdown Labour MPs? It would be interesting to hear from a left-libertarian in our political class.

    Clive Lewis is a very open minded fellow.

    Any chance of a few words from him?

    Unfortuantely Clive Lewis has taken the view of most of the rest of the Left, that lifting restrictions is a Tory plot to kill workers in the name of profit for the bosses, rather than the view that the State should only have extraordinary powers over its citizens for extraordinary reasons (which now no longer apply). See for example, "I am concerned that the government's current approach to unlocking, with the near-ending of restrictions, is far too high-risk." from July 22nd, and, "if you put schools re-opening back by two weeks, you halve deaths." from May 2020.
  • And at this rate Labour will be leading the next Government. I know a few are still in denial but something has changed
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    An amusing description of a truly terrible and horribly pretentious 27 course tasting menu at a Michelin starred resto in Italy


    There is nothing worse in life than a truly fucking awful, pretentious tasting menu: no, not even Omicron. I have had this exact same experience several times (tho mainly in France not Italy)


    https://everywhereist.com/2021/12/bros-restaurant-lecce-we-eat-at-the-worst-michelin-starred-restaurant-ever/
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,078
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    There were no extra restrictions announced tonight or any new lockdowns, all that was asked was a perfectly reasonable requirement for vaccine passports for nightclubs and large events and masks to be worn in cinemas and theatres.

    As for Labour's mere 4% poll lead, even Ed Miliband and Kinnock got far bigger leads than that midterm, let alone Blair

    Your problem is that every mistake is coming from idiotic levels of thoughtlessness.

    Not a lack of thought for the proles (that's a given) but a lack of thought about how damaging these actions will be for themselves.

    If that doesn't stop then you will keep losing support.

    Someone needs to start saying No to Boris and Boris needs to start saying No to Carrie.

    And if they don't they have to go - responsibility is required now not a pair of spoilt brats.
    Boris was not even at this party, this is just attacks by the left liberal media to get rid of him.

    The level of treachery by some backbencher MPs who owe their seats to Boris makes me as angry as the traitors who got rid of Maggie, our greatest leader since Churchill. We had to wait until Boris to get an election victory of the size she won.

    I am furious tonight and if these traitors think they can get rid of Boris with no consequences they have another thing coming.

    Ok, so you are now raging in the dark, However the fact is that the biggest enemy of Boris is... Boris.

    All of this mess is one unforced error after another and that is not "Liberal Left" conspiracy, it is an entirely Tory cock up. Those who knew him best also knew he was not up to the job, but they simply gave him his head with no Willie Whitelaw style wiser heads to impose some sense of discipline.
    Whatever he won, he got by "misrepresentation", in short, bluster and bullshit.

    And now the chickens are coming home to roost.
  • SKS team to the rescue


    Wes Streeting MP
    @wesstreeting
    ·
    21m
    The heckling of the Health Secretary by his own side this evening was ugly and unnecessary.

    We’ve made it clear that Labour will support the measures

    We have no Opposition.

    This @CorrectHorseBattery is why Sir Keir Starmer will never win the next election.
    You want the opposition to agree with you. But they don't. On the broad thrust of public health measures, they've agreed with the government (and the scientific advice) since Covid came into view. As have all the opposition parties. If they had opposed the public health measures just for the sake of opposing, they'd be in a much worse position now, because the public would not think Labour was a serious party. There's plenty of other things to oppose the government on, and Labour are getting better at that.
    The Oppositions job is to hold the government to account, not to agree with me.

    Yes the Opposition may want to see restrictions brought in, but there's no reason for them to give the Government a blank cheque. Extract a price to be paid to win your support. Why buy the cow, if the milk is given away for free?

    Do you think the Government has done everything perfectly? Is the support available for people perfect? Is there nothing you'd like to see changed?

    Here's an idea I wouldn't support but could work for the Opposition for starters: Say that the economic support (furlough, UC uplift etc) that was tied to the restrictions has been ended, so if the government wants to bring back economic restrictions then you will support that only if the economic support is brought in with it too. Bring back the UC uplift and you'll vote through these measures; no uplift, no measures.

    That way the Government is held to the fire, the Opposition either wins a scalp or sees the Government defeated. Instead its just a case of giving away their votes for free.

    We have no Opposition.
  • MrEd said:

    So my terminology has been justly criticised, but has anyone any idea who might be the stalking horse, if one is needed, to bring down Boris?

    I think it'd need to be someone stupid enough to think they were a candidate rather than a stalking horse, so maybe Gavin?

    As far as I’m aware, it doesn’t work like that anymore. The 1922 has to get the letters and the VONC has to pass first before a leadership election can take place.

    I could conceivably (just) see the letters going in if there are a few more days of drip-drip. Not sure I see a VONC passing at this stage. Although I don’t doubt a number of Tory MPs are angry, I don’t think we’ve quite reached tipping point yet. But give it time. There might be more to come.
    Bear in mind we are approaching Christmas. This year has been odd because it doesn't really feel like businesses are slowing down for the break but we will get there and, once people are focused on Christmas, then most people will be distracted by their usual Christmas chores and everything else.

    If BJ can get through to next Friday, he is probably safer for a lot longer than you think.
    I think that’s a good analysis and we are probably dependent on what more there might be to come in the next few days if there’s any chance of this all falling apart next week.
  • The Mirror clearly has something dangerous on BoJo. He’s toast IMHO
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    There were no extra restrictions announced tonight or any new lockdowns, all that was asked was a perfectly reasonable requirement for vaccine passports for nightclubs and large events and masks to be worn in cinemas and theatres.

    As for Labour's mere 4% poll lead, even Ed Miliband and Kinnock got far bigger leads than that midterm, let alone Blair

    Your problem is that every mistake is coming from idiotic levels of thoughtlessness.

    Not a lack of thought for the proles (that's a given) but a lack of thought about how damaging these actions will be for themselves.

    If that doesn't stop then you will keep losing support.

    Someone needs to start saying No to Boris and Boris needs to start saying No to Carrie.

    And if they don't they have to go - responsibility is required now not a pair of spoilt brats.
    Boris was not even at this party, this is just attacks by the left liberal media to get rid of him.

    The level of treachery by some backbencher MPs who owe their seats to Boris makes me as angry as the traitors who got rid of Maggie, our greatest leader since Churchill. We had to wait until Boris to get an election victory of the size she won.

    I am furious tonight and if these traitors think they can get rid of Boris with no consequences they have another thing coming.

    They don't need to get rid of him but surely even you can accept that many of these mistakes are unacceptably incompetent.

    Its widely believed that politicians are only in it for themselves and don't give a toss about the people but when they start damaging themselves because they cannot say No to any passing idiocy then they're exposed as incompetent.

    So to start off with Boris needs to start saying No to Carrie - whether that's having her mate as a 'nanny', pissing a fortune away on nouveau chav wallpaper or obsessing about doggies in the third world.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Don't we (traditionally) need a 'dark horse' in the Conservatives to bring down the PM so they can then vote someone else who wasn't treacherous in? Who could that be this time? Or has Boris debased himself so badly that the dark horse isn't needed?

    Isn't it traditionally a stalking horse rather than a dark horse?
    Wasn't Sir Anthony Meyer a stalking dark horse ?

    For some reason this is making me think of a nodding donkey.
    It was the traitors who got rid of Maggie despite owing their seats to her who condemned the party to losing 3 out of 4 of the following general elections and it will be the traitors trying to get rid of Boris despite owing their seats to him who will condemn the party to years of opposition too.

    Such treachery will neither be forgiven nor forgotten by me or many others if it succeeds
    I am sure the next PM will be devastated to lose your support. Although, you will of course flip back int line after a day or two.
    It took the party 15 years to recover from the treacherous assassination of Maggie, it would take the party just as long to recover from the treacherous assassination of Boris.

    Look at Labour too, 14 years after it forced Blair out it has still not won a general election since
    You could always join the irrelevance that is Richard Tice's party
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,912
    edited December 2021

    HYUFD said:

    Don't we (traditionally) need a 'dark horse' in the Conservatives to bring down the PM so they can then vote someone else who wasn't treacherous in? Who could that be this time? Or has Boris debased himself so badly that the dark horse isn't needed?

    Isn't it traditionally a stalking horse rather than a dark horse?
    Wasn't Sir Anthony Meyer a stalking dark horse ?

    For some reason this is making me think of a nodding donkey.
    It was the traitors who got rid of Maggie despite owing their seats to her who condemned the party to losing 3 out of 4 of the following general elections and it will be the traitors trying to get rid of Boris despite owing their seats to him who will condemn the party to years of opposition too.

    Such treachery will neither be forgiven nor forgotten by me or many others if it succeeds
    If it succeeds you will be irrelevant
    After Thatcher was toppled her disciples increasingly dominated the party and effectively took over the party in the following years, if Boris is forced out despite being the most successful Tory election winner since her then Boris loyalists will bit by bit retake the party. Much as those not loyal to Trump are increasingly being driven out of the GOP.

    Remember most Tory voters do not want Boris to resign tonight
  • We have objectively our best opposition as rated since Blair. Good enough for me

    LOL you're hilarious. On what 'objective' measure is the Opposition better as rated than Cameron's? Cameron led in the polls for all but three months of his tenure as Opposition leader.
  • Have we underestimated Starmer?

    Tonight he looks and sounds like the PM in waiting as this government self destructs.
  • Have we underestimated Starmer?

    Tonight he looks and sounds like the PM in waiting as this government self destructs.

    I have said so since day 1 and I’ve been shouted down all manner of times
  • And can someone explain how Allegra Stratton got that job - she looked like total idiot in that clip.

    I expect that governments are going to spend millions to make themselves look good.

    But its the incompetence which is unacceptable.

    And Stratton was clearly incompetent.
  • Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    dixiedean said:

    AFAICT, it is masks in theatres, cinemas, night clubs and footy grounds.
    And work from home if you can.
    It's hardly totalitarian.
    In fact, it's barely different.

    The problem, of course, is that we have been here before - and, when the Prime Minister says that the cycle of restrictions can't go on indefinitely, either people simply don't believe that (or anything else he says,) or they interpret not indefinitely as meaning it might stop in a hundred years' time.

    Even amongst those of us who think, logically, that lockdowns are a thing of the past because too many people won't obey them and the country can't afford the damage, it's hard not to harbour the fear and suspicion that one more dodgy computer model is all it's going to take to tip the Government into full panic mode. I can hardly help but worry that everything I've so far planned for the New Year is going to be cancelled, and there's consequently no point in booking anything else.

    Covid is taking the form of an endless series of crises, the response to which is always exactly the same. More rules and more restrictions. If rules are applied and they seem to achieve nothing then that's taken as evidence that tighter rules are needed; if rules are applied and they seem to do something then the demand comes for tighter rules so that they will be even more effective. Either way, it's no wonder that so many people are now frightened that Winter 2022 is going to be a straight repetition of Winter 2021 and that the only non-forbidden activities outside of the home will be going to work if you can't do so from home, grocery shopping and taking a dismal, freezing cold walk in some shitty park. Again. Rinse and repeat for Winter 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026.

    It was reported a few days ago that an ONS survey revealed that one in six adults in the UK now believes that this is it: perpetual cycles of mask wearing, testing, distancing and periodic lockdowns are all we have to look forward to. That this is how life is going to be forever. I would imagine, after today, that the figure will be considerably higher. People are giving up, and who can honestly blame them?
    I did try to warn you this was coming, that the OMICRON was gonna freak everyone out. You loudly chortled
    Meanwhile South Africa appears to be what exactly? Omicron has become the dominant variant and there does not yet appear to be a lot of severe cases. Nearing two weeks since it was first identified - and how long had it been around before then?
    Witty stated that conversation with his opposite numbers in South Africa, that unofficial* hospitalisation figures are up 300% in a week. And remember most of the initial outbreak has been in the 10-30 year olds.

    * the official ones are notoriously slow and have to be backfilled weeks after the fact.
    Cases are up 331% on the week, according to Worldometers, so ça va. And a lot of those are apparently hospitalised and happen to have Covid, not hospitalised because of it.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,784
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    There were no extra restrictions announced tonight or any new lockdowns, all that was asked was a perfectly reasonable requirement for vaccine passports for nightclubs and large events and masks to be worn in cinemas and theatres.

    As for Labour's mere 4% poll lead, even Ed Miliband and Kinnock got far bigger leads than that midterm, let alone Blair

    Your problem is that every mistake is coming from idiotic levels of thoughtlessness.

    Not a lack of thought for the proles (that's a given) but a lack of thought about how damaging these actions will be for themselves.

    If that doesn't stop then you will keep losing support.

    Someone needs to start saying No to Boris and Boris needs to start saying No to Carrie.

    And if they don't they have to go - responsibility is required now not a pair of spoilt brats.
    Boris was not even at this party, this is just attacks by the left liberal media to get rid of him.

    The level of treachery by some backbencher MPs who owe their seats to Boris makes me as angry as the traitors who got rid of Maggie, our greatest leader since Churchill. We had to wait until Boris to get an election victory of the size she won.

    I am furious tonight and if these traitors think they can get rid of Boris with no consequences they have another thing coming.

    You don't get it do you? It is not about being at the party, it is about lying about the party that broke the rules. And this is the tip of the iceberg of endless lies and abuse of rules and conventions that the rest of us follow.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    dixiedean said:

    AFAICT, it is masks in theatres, cinemas, night clubs and footy grounds.
    And work from home if you can.
    It's hardly totalitarian.
    In fact, it's barely different.

    The problem, of course, is that we have been here before - and, when the Prime Minister says that the cycle of restrictions can't go on indefinitely, either people simply don't believe that (or anything else he says,) or they interpret not indefinitely as meaning it might stop in a hundred years' time.

    Even amongst those of us who think, logically, that lockdowns are a thing of the past because too many people won't obey them and the country can't afford the damage, it's hard not to harbour the fear and suspicion that one more dodgy computer model is all it's going to take to tip the Government into full panic mode. I can hardly help but worry that everything I've so far planned for the New Year is going to be cancelled, and there's consequently no point in booking anything else.

    Covid is taking the form of an endless series of crises, the response to which is always exactly the same. More rules and more restrictions. If rules are applied and they seem to achieve nothing then that's taken as evidence that tighter rules are needed; if rules are applied and they seem to do something then the demand comes for tighter rules so that they will be even more effective. Either way, it's no wonder that so many people are now frightened that Winter 2022 is going to be a straight repetition of Winter 2021 and that the only non-forbidden activities outside of the home will be going to work if you can't do so from home, grocery shopping and taking a dismal, freezing cold walk in some shitty park. Again. Rinse and repeat for Winter 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026.

    It was reported a few days ago that an ONS survey revealed that one in six adults in the UK now believes that this is it: perpetual cycles of mask wearing, testing, distancing and periodic lockdowns are all we have to look forward to. That this is how life is going to be forever. I would imagine, after today, that the figure will be considerably higher. People are giving up, and who can honestly blame them?
    I did try to warn you this was coming, that the OMICRON was gonna freak everyone out. You loudly chortled
    Meanwhile South Africa appears to be what exactly? Omicron has become the dominant variant and there does not yet appear to be a lot of severe cases. Nearing two weeks since it was first identified - and how long had it been around before then?
    For balance, a thread which supports your optimistic take

    "1 of 6:

    Gauteng #Omicron update - 8 December:

    The load on hospitals is significantly lower compared to Delta, and with a peak imminent, hospitals will not be overloaded at all.

    No restrictions are needed to help hospitals in any way."

    https://twitter.com/pieterstreicher/status/1468652410637799437?s=20


    NB I have never said that Omicron was going to be the Black Death. My focus has always been on the way governments instantly responded to the info, the UK closing the border, Israel quarantining the entire nation, Javid visibly crapping himself on Sky News. That told me that the REACTION to Omicron (at that point unnamed) would be drastic. And so it is.

    We still don't know how serious Omicron REALLY is, and the data is endlessly conflicting
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    dixiedean said:

    AFAICT, it is masks in theatres, cinemas, night clubs and footy grounds.
    And work from home if you can.
    It's hardly totalitarian.
    In fact, it's barely different.

    The problem, of course, is that we have been here before - and, when the Prime Minister says that the cycle of restrictions can't go on indefinitely, either people simply don't believe that (or anything else he says,) or they interpret not indefinitely as meaning it might stop in a hundred years' time.

    Even amongst those of us who think, logically, that lockdowns are a thing of the past because too many people won't obey them and the country can't afford the damage, it's hard not to harbour the fear and suspicion that one more dodgy computer model is all it's going to take to tip the Government into full panic mode. I can hardly help but worry that everything I've so far planned for the New Year is going to be cancelled, and there's consequently no point in booking anything else.

    Covid is taking the form of an endless series of crises, the response to which is always exactly the same. More rules and more restrictions. If rules are applied and they seem to achieve nothing then that's taken as evidence that tighter rules are needed; if rules are applied and they seem to do something then the demand comes for tighter rules so that they will be even more effective. Either way, it's no wonder that so many people are now frightened that Winter 2022 is going to be a straight repetition of Winter 2021 and that the only non-forbidden activities outside of the home will be going to work if you can't do so from home, grocery shopping and taking a dismal, freezing cold walk in some shitty park. Again. Rinse and repeat for Winter 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026.

    It was reported a few days ago that an ONS survey revealed that one in six adults in the UK now believes that this is it: perpetual cycles of mask wearing, testing, distancing and periodic lockdowns are all we have to look forward to. That this is how life is going to be forever. I would imagine, after today, that the figure will be considerably higher. People are giving up, and who can honestly blame them?
    I did try to warn you this was coming, that the OMICRON was gonna freak everyone out. You loudly chortled
    Meanwhile South Africa appears to be what exactly? Omicron has become the dominant variant and there does not yet appear to be a lot of severe cases. Nearing two weeks since it was first identified - and how long had it been around before then?
    Witty stated that conversation with his opposite numbers in South Africa, that unofficial* hospitalisation figures are up 300% in a week. And remember most of the initial outbreak has been in the 10-30 year olds.

    * the official ones are notoriously slow and have to be backfilled weeks after the fact.
    Cases are up 331% on the week, according to Worldometers, so ça va. And a lot of those are apparently hospitalised and happen to have Covid, not hospitalised because of it.
    The best thing about unofficial numbers based on conversations with unnamed officials is no one can fact check them.

    Far better than publishing model scenarios which everyone can easily laugh out and point out your abysmal track record on.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Are there any anti lockdown Labour MPs? It would be interesting to hear from a left-libertarian in our political class.

    Clive Lewis is a very open minded fellow.

    Any chance of a few words from him?

    There isn't any need. Since we never have been locked down. Nor is anyone suggesting it. That's why you're in the pub.
    We are not locked down now.

    But we have been locked down. There were several weeks (months?) when the pubs were closed.

    The pubs were closed for weeks. In England. A country built upon pubs! Closed. Closed!

    If that’s not lockdown, I don’t know what is.
    A lockdown is needing to text the police to leave your house. Which is enforced. Pubs shut is closed pubs.
    Regardless of whether you call it a lockdown or not, closing vast swathes of businesses is an extraordinary government intervention, and should only be allowed for extraordinary reasons. Even more so, the government legislated to ban you from having visitors to your private home - if that isn't an extraordinarily intrusive restriction on civil liberties then few things are, and again if it can ever be justified it can only be in the most extreme circumstances.

    I would have hoped that the flexibility of the English language would provide us with a range of words to use, so that we could navigate the nuance of distinguishing between various degrees of infringements on our civil liberties, but it seems as though "lockdown" is about the only word we have for discussing this at the moment.
  • BoJo wasn’t at that party but I think he was at another one. That’s what the Mirror seem to be implying
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    edited December 2021
    ….

    😔
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    Starmer was really good this morning. Serious, considered, oozed the disdain we are all feeling (excl HFYUD). The problem is, every time he has to make a call on policy he gets it wrong. By this evening he’s already lost my vote again by unthinkingly backing new NPI without proper interrogation of why extraordinary measures are necessary, their value to health outcomes and their wider costs to society. So my vote is now up for grabs outside of the big 2.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,912
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    There were no extra restrictions announced tonight or any new lockdowns, all that was asked was a perfectly reasonable requirement for vaccine passports for nightclubs and large events and masks to be worn in cinemas and theatres.

    As for Labour's mere 4% poll lead, even Ed Miliband and Kinnock got far bigger leads than that midterm, let alone Blair

    Your problem is that every mistake is coming from idiotic levels of thoughtlessness.

    Not a lack of thought for the proles (that's a given) but a lack of thought about how damaging these actions will be for themselves.

    If that doesn't stop then you will keep losing support.

    Someone needs to start saying No to Boris and Boris needs to start saying No to Carrie.

    And if they don't they have to go - responsibility is required now not a pair of spoilt brats.
    Boris was not even at this party, this is just attacks by the left liberal media to get rid of him.

    The level of treachery by some backbencher MPs who owe their seats to Boris makes me as angry as the traitors who got rid of Maggie, our greatest leader since Churchill. We had to wait until Boris to get an election victory of the size she won.

    I am furious tonight and if these traitors think they can get rid of Boris with no consequences they have another thing coming.

    You don't get it do you? It is not about being at the party, it is about lying about the party that broke the rules. And this is the tip of the iceberg of endless lies and abuse of rules and conventions that the rest of us follow.
    From liberal non conservatives like you who are desperate to get rid of Boris because he beat you, not just narrowly but by the biggest margin since Maggie. You fear him as you feared her because he beat you and you want him out as you wanted her out because they are winners and you want losers to replace them!
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839
    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    dixiedean said:

    AFAICT, it is masks in theatres, cinemas, night clubs and footy grounds.
    And work from home if you can.
    It's hardly totalitarian.
    In fact, it's barely different.

    The problem, of course, is that we have been here before - and, when the Prime Minister says that the cycle of restrictions can't go on indefinitely, either people simply don't believe that (or anything else he says,) or they interpret not indefinitely as meaning it might stop in a hundred years' time.

    Even amongst those of us who think, logically, that lockdowns are a thing of the past because too many people won't obey them and the country can't afford the damage, it's hard not to harbour the fear and suspicion that one more dodgy computer model is all it's going to take to tip the Government into full panic mode. I can hardly help but worry that everything I've so far planned for the New Year is going to be cancelled, and there's consequently no point in booking anything else.

    Covid is taking the form of an endless series of crises, the response to which is always exactly the same. More rules and more restrictions. If rules are applied and they seem to achieve nothing then that's taken as evidence that tighter rules are needed; if rules are applied and they seem to do something then the demand comes for tighter rules so that they will be even more effective. Either way, it's no wonder that so many people are now frightened that Winter 2022 is going to be a straight repetition of Winter 2021 and that the only non-forbidden activities outside of the home will be going to work if you can't do so from home, grocery shopping and taking a dismal, freezing cold walk in some shitty park. Again. Rinse and repeat for Winter 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026.

    It was reported a few days ago that an ONS survey revealed that one in six adults in the UK now believes that this is it: perpetual cycles of mask wearing, testing, distancing and periodic lockdowns are all we have to look forward to. That this is how life is going to be forever. I would imagine, after today, that the figure will be considerably higher. People are giving up, and who can honestly blame them?
    I did try to warn you this was coming, that the OMICRON was gonna freak everyone out. You loudly chortled
    I think the best that can be said of this evening's announcement is that there's nothing in it which wouldn't have been expected of the previously telegraphed 'plan B' ideas. In fact, the cocking about with masks wasn't nearly as bad as I thought it would be (the ludicrous Covid theatrics of putting them on to go to the loo in a pub haven't come back - yet.) But the speed with which the Government has started reaching for the levers is depressing: there's still time for more bad news before Christmas.

    Although the real proof of how ready they are to fly into a total panic at every new variant is going to come immediately after Christmas, of course. If we're back to house arrest and remote learning in time for the new school term then you have to wonder how many years or decades it will take to get out of this rut. It'll be a race between viral evolution (it becoming less nasty, or so transmissible that anyone not living in total isolation in a remote field gets in within a few weeks,) a revolution, or complete socio-economic collapse. I wouldn't like to bet what would come first.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    There were no extra restrictions announced tonight or any new lockdowns, all that was asked was a perfectly reasonable requirement for vaccine passports for nightclubs and large events and masks to be worn in cinemas and theatres.

    As for Labour's mere 4% poll lead, even Ed Miliband and Kinnock got far bigger leads than that midterm, let alone Blair

    Your problem is that every mistake is coming from idiotic levels of thoughtlessness.

    Not a lack of thought for the proles (that's a given) but a lack of thought about how damaging these actions will be for themselves.

    If that doesn't stop then you will keep losing support.

    Someone needs to start saying No to Boris and Boris needs to start saying No to Carrie.

    And if they don't they have to go - responsibility is required now not a pair of spoilt brats.
    Boris was not even at this party, this is just attacks by the left liberal media to get rid of him.

    The level of treachery by some backbencher MPs who owe their seats to Boris makes me as angry as the traitors who got rid of Maggie, our greatest leader since Churchill. We had to wait until Boris to get an election victory of the size she won.

    I am furious tonight and if these traitors think they can get rid of Boris with no consequences they have another thing coming.

    You don't get it do you? It is not about being at the party, it is about lying about the party that broke the rules. And this is the tip of the iceberg of endless lies and abuse of rules and conventions that the rest of us follow.
    I really do feel sorry for HFUYD. That level of blind loyalty will only end in tears - particularly when Boris throws everyone under the bus.

    Boris won a large majority because it was the only chance for Brexit to “be completed” (whatever that means). He’s served that purpose - and now proving to be absolutely useless
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    moonshine said:

    Starmer was really good this morning. Serious, considered, oozed the disdain we are all feeling (excl HFYUD). The problem is, every time he has to make a call on policy he gets it wrong. By this evening he’s already lost my vote again by unthinkingly backing new NPI without proper interrogation of why extraordinary measures are necessary, their value to health outcomes and their wider costs to society. So my vote is now up for grabs outside of the big 2.
    The argument is just laughable.

    We face a terrifying existential threat to the NHS. So we're going to introduce the annoying failed policies of Wales & Scotland.

    There's just a total imbalance between the rhetoric and the plan.
  • And can someone explain how Allegra Stratton got that job - she looked like total idiot in that clip.

    I expect that governments are going to spend millions to make themselves look good.

    But its the incompetence which is unacceptable.

    And Stratton was clearly incompetent.

    She got the job because she's the wife of Rishi Sunak's best man and Boris Johnson demanded she get the job even though she wasn't well suited to it, and indeed proved so poor at it that the entire position was scrapped, after millions had been wasted kitting out the room. Because this is a corrupt oligarchy.
  • Johnson won GE19 because of Corbyn and I am every day more and more sure of this
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Don't we (traditionally) need a 'dark horse' in the Conservatives to bring down the PM so they can then vote someone else who wasn't treacherous in? Who could that be this time? Or has Boris debased himself so badly that the dark horse isn't needed?

    Isn't it traditionally a stalking horse rather than a dark horse?
    Wasn't Sir Anthony Meyer a stalking dark horse ?

    For some reason this is making me think of a nodding donkey.
    It was the traitors who got rid of Maggie despite owing their seats to her who condemned the party to losing 3 out of 4 of the following general elections and it will be the traitors trying to get rid of Boris despite owing their seats to him who will condemn the party to years of opposition too.

    Such treachery will neither be forgiven nor forgotten by me or many others if it succeeds
    If it succeeds you will be irrelevant
    After Thatcher was toppled her disciples increasingly dominated the party and effectively took over the party in the following years, if Boris is forced out despite being the most successful Tory election winner since her then Boris loyalists will bit by bit retake the party. Much as those not loyal to Trump are increasingly being driven out of the GOP.

    Remember most Tory voters do not want Boris to resign tonight
    Most ordinary voters do as evidenced in today's polls, and it is ordinarily voters the conservatives need to win an election

    Boris is not the vote winner you think, he lost that with Paterson and now this entirely self inflicted own goal (sorry goals)
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028

    And can someone explain how Allegra Stratton got that job - she looked like total idiot in that clip.

    I expect that governments are going to spend millions to make themselves look good.

    But its the incompetence which is unacceptable.

    And Stratton was clearly incompetent.

    Carrie apparently. Seems to have a disproportionate role in government despite having no authority to do so - see the whole “dog evacuation” story from Afghanistan
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,912

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    There were no extra restrictions announced tonight or any new lockdowns, all that was asked was a perfectly reasonable requirement for vaccine passports for nightclubs and large events and masks to be worn in cinemas and theatres.

    As for Labour's mere 4% poll lead, even Ed Miliband and Kinnock got far bigger leads than that midterm, let alone Blair

    Your problem is that every mistake is coming from idiotic levels of thoughtlessness.

    Not a lack of thought for the proles (that's a given) but a lack of thought about how damaging these actions will be for themselves.

    If that doesn't stop then you will keep losing support.

    Someone needs to start saying No to Boris and Boris needs to start saying No to Carrie.

    And if they don't they have to go - responsibility is required now not a pair of spoilt brats.
    Boris was not even at this party, this is just attacks by the left liberal media to get rid of him.

    The level of treachery by some backbencher MPs who owe their seats to Boris makes me as angry as the traitors who got rid of Maggie, our greatest leader since Churchill. We had to wait until Boris to get an election victory of the size she won.

    I am furious tonight and if these traitors think they can get rid of Boris with no consequences they have another thing coming.

    You don't get it do you? It is not about being at the party, it is about lying about the party that broke the rules. And this is the tip of the iceberg of endless lies and abuse of rules and conventions that the rest of us follow.
    I really do feel sorry for HFUYD. That level of blind loyalty will only end in tears - particularly when Boris throws everyone under the bus.

    Boris won a large majority because it was the only chance for Brexit to “be completed” (whatever that means). He’s served that purpose - and now proving to be absolutely useless
    There is nobody else who would have won the RedWall as Boris did or the size of victory Boris did, if he is forced out the traitors who do so will find Boris loyalists prepare their own equivalent of Momentum to retake the party.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    Leon said:

    Unpopular opinion: as soon as Boris goes - like, within about 3 weeks - lots of people will miss him, a lot

    For all his manifold flaws - which are now destroying him - he cheered people. Made them smile. That's what we will miss. I once read in a book by that awful Tom Knox dude that "the friends you miss most are the friends that made you laugh". It is true. And Boris was that person for plenty of Britons

    Instead it will be Boring Kir Royale Starmer versus boring Rishi Sunak or Michael Gove or whoever, and it will all seem terribly grey and dull. And we will mourn

    We will not.
    I have friends who make me laugh. I do not require that from my PM, particularly when it’s tinged with contempt.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    moonshine said:

    Starmer was really good this morning. Serious, considered, oozed the disdain we are all feeling (excl HFYUD). The problem is, every time he has to make a call on policy he gets it wrong. By this evening he’s already lost my vote again by unthinkingly backing new NPI without proper interrogation of why extraordinary measures are necessary, their value to health outcomes and their wider costs to society. So my vote is now up for grabs outside of the big 2.
    Starmer has no strategic grasp of politics at all. The biggest position he has ever taken is Destroy Democracy, by calling for a 2nd referendum (a fact which may come back to haunt him, badly, if he looks to be close to power)

    He's best described as a Woke Remainer Blairite. He is a void. A nullity. He's quite good at lawyerly questioning, because that's his training - just as Boris is good at a pithy little phrase, a joking but erudite reference: that's *his* training

    Boris still has the charisma, Starmer has none. At the moment, however, charisma counts for nothing. When the election arrives Starmer's total lack of personal appeal will matter
  • moonshine said:

    Starmer was really good this morning. Serious, considered, oozed the disdain we are all feeling (excl HFYUD). The problem is, every time he has to make a call on policy he gets it wrong. By this evening he’s already lost my vote again by unthinkingly backing new NPI without proper interrogation of why extraordinary measures are necessary, their value to health outcomes and their wider costs to society. So my vote is now up for grabs outside of the big 2.
    He's got a golden opportunity to defeat the government or extract a pound of flesh like economic support for his voters if he were to vote for the government, and he's pissing it away.

    Opportunities like this don't come around often. Blair wouldn't have made such a schoolboy error. Blair backed the Maastricht Treaty but found any excuse to vote against in divisions despite that in order to help tear the government apart and exploit divisions. Starmer would just waltz through the divisions without pausing to think it seems.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Unpopular opinion: as soon as Boris goes - like, within about 3 weeks - lots of people will miss him, a lot

    For all his manifold flaws - which are now destroying him - he cheered people. Made them smile. That's what we will miss. I once read in a book by that awful Tom Knox dude that "the friends you miss most are the friends that made you laugh". It is true. And Boris was that person for plenty of Britons

    Instead it will be Boring Kir Royale Starmer versus boring Rishi Sunak or Michael Gove or whoever, and it will all seem terribly grey and dull. And we will mourn

    We will not.
    I have friends who make me laugh. I do not require that from my PM, particularly when it’s tinged with contempt.
    TBH Nigel, minor public schoolboys such as yourself are not the demographic I was referring to
  • Have we underestimated Starmer?

    Tonight he looks and sounds like the PM in waiting as this government self destructs.

    Starmer would still have a lot of waiting to do. Even if BoJo does self-combust (what conversations are happening in the flat at No 10 tonight? Is it like Maggie and Dennis on 21 November 1990?), there will still be a Conservative majority of 80 with no wish to go to the country.

    Don't have nightmares, everybody.
  • Looking forward to this weekend's polls.

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    dixiedean said:

    AFAICT, it is masks in theatres, cinemas, night clubs and footy grounds.
    And work from home if you can.
    It's hardly totalitarian.
    In fact, it's barely different.

    The problem, of course, is that we have been here before - and, when the Prime Minister says that the cycle of restrictions can't go on indefinitely, either people simply don't believe that (or anything else he says,) or they interpret not indefinitely as meaning it might stop in a hundred years' time.

    Even amongst those of us who think, logically, that lockdowns are a thing of the past because too many people won't obey them and the country can't afford the damage, it's hard not to harbour the fear and suspicion that one more dodgy computer model is all it's going to take to tip the Government into full panic mode. I can hardly help but worry that everything I've so far planned for the New Year is going to be cancelled, and there's consequently no point in booking anything else.

    Covid is taking the form of an endless series of crises, the response to which is always exactly the same. More rules and more restrictions. If rules are applied and they seem to achieve nothing then that's taken as evidence that tighter rules are needed; if rules are applied and they seem to do something then the demand comes for tighter rules so that they will be even more effective. Either way, it's no wonder that so many people are now frightened that Winter 2022 is going to be a straight repetition of Winter 2021 and that the only non-forbidden activities outside of the home will be going to work if you can't do so from home, grocery shopping and taking a dismal, freezing cold walk in some shitty park. Again. Rinse and repeat for Winter 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026.

    It was reported a few days ago that an ONS survey revealed that one in six adults in the UK now believes that this is it: perpetual cycles of mask wearing, testing, distancing and periodic lockdowns are all we have to look forward to. That this is how life is going to be forever. I would imagine, after today, that the figure will be considerably higher. People are giving up, and who can honestly blame them?
    I did try to warn you this was coming, that the OMICRON was gonna freak everyone out. You loudly chortled
    Meanwhile South Africa appears to be what exactly? Omicron has become the dominant variant and there does not yet appear to be a lot of severe cases. Nearing two weeks since it was first identified - and how long had it been around before then?
    For balance, a thread which supports your optimistic take

    "1 of 6:

    Gauteng #Omicron update - 8 December:

    The load on hospitals is significantly lower compared to Delta, and with a peak imminent, hospitals will not be overloaded at all.

    No restrictions are needed to help hospitals in any way."

    https://twitter.com/pieterstreicher/status/1468652410637799437?s=20


    NB I have never said that Omicron was going to be the Black Death. My focus has always been on the way governments instantly responded to the info, the UK closing the border, Israel quarantining the entire nation, Javid visibly crapping himself on Sky News. That told me that the REACTION to Omicron (at that point unnamed) would be drastic. And so it is.

    We still don't know how serious Omicron REALLY is, and the data is endlessly conflicting
    Fair enough, but as I have implied before your weakness is that you don’t seem to grasp the concept of complex adaptive systems.

    There is simply no such thing as a closed network.

    So by panicking every night on PB - and often being eloquent with it, which makes it more potent - you serve to increase the general panic.

    That panic filters through.

    In some small way, you yourself have contributed to the advent of Plan B.
  • HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    There were no extra restrictions announced tonight or any new lockdowns, all that was asked was a perfectly reasonable requirement for vaccine passports for nightclubs and large events and masks to be worn in cinemas and theatres.

    As for Labour's mere 4% poll lead, even Ed Miliband and Kinnock got far bigger leads than that midterm, let alone Blair

    Your problem is that every mistake is coming from idiotic levels of thoughtlessness.

    Not a lack of thought for the proles (that's a given) but a lack of thought about how damaging these actions will be for themselves.

    If that doesn't stop then you will keep losing support.

    Someone needs to start saying No to Boris and Boris needs to start saying No to Carrie.

    And if they don't they have to go - responsibility is required now not a pair of spoilt brats.
    Boris was not even at this party, this is just attacks by the left liberal media to get rid of him.

    The level of treachery by some backbencher MPs who owe their seats to Boris makes me as angry as the traitors who got rid of Maggie, our greatest leader since Churchill. We had to wait until Boris to get an election victory of the size she won.

    I am furious tonight and if these traitors think they can get rid of Boris with no consequences they have another thing coming.

    You don't get it do you? It is not about being at the party, it is about lying about the party that broke the rules. And this is the tip of the iceberg of endless lies and abuse of rules and conventions that the rest of us follow.
    From liberal non conservatives like you who are desperate to get rid of Boris because he beat you, not just narrowly but by the biggest margin since Maggie. You fear him as you feared her because he beat you and you want him out as you wanted her out because they are winners and you want losers to replace them!
    You need to put down your keyboard and have a cup of tea and maybe a rich tea biscuit
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839
    HYUFD said:

    There were no extra restrictions announced tonight or any new lockdowns, all that was asked was a perfectly reasonable requirement for vaccine passports for nightclubs and large events and masks to be worn in cinemas and theatres.

    But what about next week? And the week after that?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,643
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Starmer was really good this morning. Serious, considered, oozed the disdain we are all feeling (excl HFYUD). The problem is, every time he has to make a call on policy he gets it wrong. By this evening he’s already lost my vote again by unthinkingly backing new NPI without proper interrogation of why extraordinary measures are necessary, their value to health outcomes and their wider costs to society. So my vote is now up for grabs outside of the big 2.
    Starmer has no strategic grasp of politics at all. The biggest position he has ever taken is Destroy Democracy, by calling for a 2nd referendum (a fact which may come back to haunt him, badly, if he looks to be close to power)

    He's best described as a Woke Remainer Blairite. He is a void. A nullity. He's quite good at lawyerly questioning, because that's his training - just as Boris is good at a pithy little phrase, a joking but erudite reference: that's *his* training

    Boris still has the charisma, Starmer has none. At the moment, however, charisma counts for nothing. When the election arrives Starmer's total lack of personal appeal will matter
    Nah.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826

    And can someone explain how Allegra Stratton got that job - she looked like total idiot in that clip.

    I expect that governments are going to spend millions to make themselves look good.

    But its the incompetence which is unacceptable.

    And Stratton was clearly incompetent.

    Come on Richard. It was a leaked video. Did you think it was an actual press conference?
  • Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    There were no extra restrictions announced tonight or any new lockdowns, all that was asked was a perfectly reasonable requirement for vaccine passports for nightclubs and large events and masks to be worn in cinemas and theatres.

    As for Labour's mere 4% poll lead, even Ed Miliband and Kinnock got far bigger leads than that midterm, let alone Blair

    Your problem is that every mistake is coming from idiotic levels of thoughtlessness.

    Not a lack of thought for the proles (that's a given) but a lack of thought about how damaging these actions will be for themselves.

    If that doesn't stop then you will keep losing support.

    Someone needs to start saying No to Boris and Boris needs to start saying No to Carrie.

    And if they don't they have to go - responsibility is required now not a pair of spoilt brats.
    Boris was not even at this party, this is just attacks by the left liberal media to get rid of him.

    The level of treachery by some backbencher MPs who owe their seats to Boris makes me as angry as the traitors who got rid of Maggie, our greatest leader since Churchill. We had to wait until Boris to get an election victory of the size she won.

    I am furious tonight and if these traitors think they can get rid of Boris with no consequences they have another thing coming.

    Essex Man Invades CCHQ in Home-Made Tank
    Metropolitan police today arrested an Essex man after he tried to invade CCHQ in what officers described as a "home-made tank". The man, who has not yet been named by police, was arrested in St James Park after fleeing on foot. Witnesses described how he was driving a "1980s style Rover Metro, covered in what looked like baking foil". After his vehicle became stuck on railings, he apparently climbed out of the sunroof, and ran off in the direction of Queen Annes Gate, threatening terrified passers-by with a spatula.
    A Met Police spokeswoman said "luckily the man was calmed down by a member of the public and, since he was apparently naked, offered the use of a coat before our officers arrived."
    One shudders to think what "use" that "he" made of the (allegedly innocent) coat?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    Johnson won GE19 because of Corbyn and I am every day more and more sure of this

    Corbyn was one factor for sure, but there were others. Many voters were thoroughly hacked off with the shenanigans of parliamentarians over Brexit. There was an appetite to get it done. Plus Johnson is able to fool people at the start. Not everyone of course, but to a lot of people he seemed kinda fun, and optimistic etc. He will let you down of course, but it was enough to get him over the line and some.
  • MrEd said:

    So my terminology has been justly criticised, but has anyone any idea who might be the stalking horse, if one is needed, to bring down Boris?

    I think it'd need to be someone stupid enough to think they were a candidate rather than a stalking horse, so maybe Gavin?

    As far as I’m aware, it doesn’t work like that anymore. The 1922 has to get the letters and the VONC has to pass first before a leadership election can take place.

    I could conceivably (just) see the letters going in if there are a few more days of drip-drip. Not sure I see a VONC passing at this stage. Although I don’t doubt a number of Tory MPs are angry, I don’t think we’ve quite reached tipping point yet. But give it time. There might be more to come.
    Bear in mind we are approaching Christmas. This year has been odd because it doesn't really feel like businesses are slowing down for the break but we will get there and, once people are focused on Christmas, then most people will be distracted by their usual Christmas chores and everything else.

    If BJ can get through to next Friday, he is probably safer for a lot longer than you think.
    Until parliament starts again in January.

    The problem with a PM who is lazy and habitually ignores rules, codes and conventions is that he will lead a government in near-permanent crisis.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747

    And can someone explain how Allegra Stratton got that job - she looked like total idiot in that clip.

    I expect that governments are going to spend millions to make themselves look good.

    But its the incompetence which is unacceptable.

    And Stratton was clearly incompetent.

    She got the job because she's the wife of Rishi Sunak's best man and Boris Johnson demanded she get the job even though she wasn't well suited to it, and indeed proved so poor at it that the entire position was scrapped, after millions had been wasted kitting out the room. Because this is a corrupt oligarchy.
    Oh for the days of Dave’s chumocracy! At least his chums were competent.

    I agree with Leon actually. The Greek tragedy is that Boris entered No. 10 with a political greasy pole climber in his bed, rather than a life long and honest confidante that would keep him level. And I suspect he knows it.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,494
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    There were no extra restrictions announced tonight or any new lockdowns, all that was asked was a perfectly reasonable requirement for vaccine passports for nightclubs and large events and masks to be worn in cinemas and theatres.

    As for Labour's mere 4% poll lead, even Ed Miliband and Kinnock got far bigger leads than that midterm, let alone Blair

    Your problem is that every mistake is coming from idiotic levels of thoughtlessness.

    Not a lack of thought for the proles (that's a given) but a lack of thought about how damaging these actions will be for themselves.

    If that doesn't stop then you will keep losing support.

    Someone needs to start saying No to Boris and Boris needs to start saying No to Carrie.

    And if they don't they have to go - responsibility is required now not a pair of spoilt brats.
    Boris was not even at this party, this is just attacks by the left liberal media to get rid of him.

    The level of treachery by some backbencher MPs who owe their seats to Boris makes me as angry as the traitors who got rid of Maggie, our greatest leader since Churchill. We had to wait until Boris to get an election victory of the size she won.

    I am furious tonight and if these traitors think they can get rid of Boris with no consequences they have another thing coming.

    ‘ Boris was not even at the party ‘

    I do respect you HYUFD. Where You always try to give an answer in any shitstorm.

    I’ve got a more genuine question not in anyway just abusive I think. Working on basis Boris is actually telling the truth, hasn’t been to all alleged parties, so how could he truly be sure all rules were followed.

    There’s going to be an investigation, into people Boris has appointed, spinners, wonks, comms experts, who are all around him every day of the week, and Boris will know on a first name basis. What questions has Boris been asking himself all week, what investigation has Boris done himself to know the truth for himself about a crisis that may prove fatal to his premiership?

    Does Boris have questions to answer now about what investigations he’s been doing into this behind the scenes the last week, so what he now knows himself before a report by someone else?
This discussion has been closed.