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If this narrative takes hold then Boris Johnson is doomed – politicalbetting.com

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  • New Zealand is banning young people from ever being allowed to buy cigarettes in a rolling program that aims to make the entire country smoke-free by 2025.

    No-one under the age of 14 will ever be allowed to buy cigarettes in their lifetime in a desperate bid to eradicate smoking from the country.

    Each year the age limit will be increased until it's illegal for the entire nation under NZ Prime Minister Jacinda Adern's radical plan.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10290201/New-Zealand-BANS-smoking-Young-people-NEVER-buy-cigarettes-nation-goes-smoke-free.html

    Stupid and unworkable.
  • New Zealand is banning young people from ever being allowed to buy cigarettes in a rolling program that aims to make the entire country smoke-free by 2025.

    No-one under the age of 14 will ever be allowed to buy cigarettes in their lifetime in a desperate bid to eradicate smoking from the country.

    Each year the age limit will be increased until it's illegal for the entire nation under NZ Prime Minister Jacinda Adern's radical plan.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10290201/New-Zealand-BANS-smoking-Young-people-NEVER-buy-cigarettes-nation-goes-smoke-free.html

    People were proposing that when I was a child in the 90s. If it had been implemented then it would already be upto ~40 by now.

    But considering how piss easy it is to buy cannabis or cocaine or anything else you want, all you'd be doing is sending cigarettes into the hands of dealers instead of businesses.

    Prohibition doesn't work.
    Listening to former members of the nudge unit, that was the thinking in terms of e-cigs. The thinking was nudge people on to them, and legislate to ensure lower amounts of nicotine etc.

    The thing they missed was that manufacturers would make them fruity and so people suck on them all day.
  • New Zealand is banning young people from ever being allowed to buy cigarettes in a rolling program that aims to make the entire country smoke-free by 2025.

    No-one under the age of 14 will ever be allowed to buy cigarettes in their lifetime in a desperate bid to eradicate smoking from the country.

    Each year the age limit will be increased until it's illegal for the entire nation under NZ Prime Minister Jacinda Adern's radical plan.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10290201/New-Zealand-BANS-smoking-Young-people-NEVER-buy-cigarettes-nation-goes-smoke-free.html

    Stupid and unworkable.
    Off the back of zero covid, she strikes me the type who will just go around banning everything.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,911

    THE SUN SAYS Partygate is a failure of leadership that cannot and must not continue

    Boris is a goner. Just like Warner.

    The Sun just hates vaxports, most voters don't
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,988
    edited December 2021
    It was the British Journalism Awards last night, any pearl clutchers about
    necessity to be mask wearing and theatre of them appearing to be always wearing them you see from journalists in days to come, check out of the photos from the award ceremony.
  • HYUFD said:

    THE SUN SAYS Partygate is a failure of leadership that cannot and must not continue

    Boris is a goner. Just like Warner.

    The Sun just hates vaxports, most voters don't
    No but they do hate hypocrisy and lies. Whether you are for or against any of the restrictions, the sight of those in power making rules that blight the lives of millions whilst they ignore those same rules themselves should make you sick. It does any normal decent people - and plenty of us who are abnormal and indecent as well. Even we think Johnson is beyond the pale.
  • HYUFD said:

    THE SUN SAYS Partygate is a failure of leadership that cannot and must not continue

    Boris is a goner. Just like Warner.

    The Sun just hates vaxports, most voters don't
    If Boris has lost the Telegraph, Sun and Mail, that is lets say far from ideal.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,058

    New Zealand is banning young people from ever being allowed to buy cigarettes in a rolling program that aims to make the entire country smoke-free by 2025.

    No-one under the age of 14 will ever be allowed to buy cigarettes in their lifetime in a desperate bid to eradicate smoking from the country.

    Each year the age limit will be increased until it's illegal for the entire nation under NZ Prime Minister Jacinda Adern's radical plan.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10290201/New-Zealand-BANS-smoking-Young-people-NEVER-buy-cigarettes-nation-goes-smoke-free.html

    Stupid and unworkable.
    Off the back of zero covid, she strikes me the type who will just go around banning everything.
    They did have a referendum on legalising weed which nearly won, which Ardern apparently voted for though.

    Oh, and I learned long ago to never celebrate a wicket until it's confirmed as not being a no ball!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,988
    edited December 2021
    CatMan said:

    New Zealand is banning young people from ever being allowed to buy cigarettes in a rolling program that aims to make the entire country smoke-free by 2025.

    No-one under the age of 14 will ever be allowed to buy cigarettes in their lifetime in a desperate bid to eradicate smoking from the country.

    Each year the age limit will be increased until it's illegal for the entire nation under NZ Prime Minister Jacinda Adern's radical plan.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10290201/New-Zealand-BANS-smoking-Young-people-NEVER-buy-cigarettes-nation-goes-smoke-free.html

    Stupid and unworkable.
    Off the back of zero covid, she strikes me the type who will just go around banning everything.
    They did have a referendum on legalising weed which nearly won, which Ardern apparently voted for though.

    Oh, and I learned long ago to never celebrate a wicket until it's confirmed as not being a no ball!
    So she is for smoking in one form, but not another....that's logical.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,464

    HYUFD said:

    THE SUN SAYS Partygate is a failure of leadership that cannot and must not continue

    Boris is a goner. Just like Warner.

    The Sun just hates vaxports, most voters don't
    No but they do hate hypocrisy and lies. Whether you are for or against any of the restrictions, the sight of those in power making rules that blight the lives of millions whilst they ignore those same rules themselves should make you sick. It does any normal decent people - and plenty of us who are abnormal and indecent as well. Even we think Johnson is beyond the pale.
    I'm not sure this is the fatal blow to BJ (he is a master of begging for and getting forgiveness), his fate rests in the hands of backbenchers who have no clear alternative esp as the grandees are tainted by the EU/May years in the eyes of many MPs. This will limp on into Spring is my sense - but I'm more than happy to be be proved wrong.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,058
    Stokes first 3 balls of that over were no balls before the wicket taking one but 3rd Umpires not calling them. Hmmmmmm, if I was in to conspiracy theories I'd say the Aussie umpires did that on purpose!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,988
    edited December 2021
    CatMan said:

    Stokes first 3 balls of that over were no balls before the wicket taking one but 3rd Umpires not calling them. Hmmmmmm, if I was in to conspiracy theories I'd say the Aussie umpires did that on purpose!

    There is no reason why no-balls can't be called automatically using tech.
  • CatMan said:

    Stokes first 3 balls of that over were no balls before the wicket taking one but 3rd Umpires not calling them. Hmmmmmm, if I was in to conspiracy theories I'd say the Aussie umpires did that on purpose!

    There is no reason why no-balls can't be called automatically using tech.
    They are called every time using tech/3rd umpire in T20s etc now aren't they?

    Just not Tests unless its a wicket?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,911
    edited December 2021

    HYUFD said:

    THE SUN SAYS Partygate is a failure of leadership that cannot and must not continue

    Boris is a goner. Just like Warner.

    The Sun just hates vaxports, most voters don't
    If Boris has lost the Telegraph, Sun and Mail, that is lets say far from ideal.
    If Starmer is not 10 points + ahead in the polls by the weekend and the Tories hold North Shropshire next week Boris can tell those papers to sod off.

    None of them would endorse Starmer anyway or they would lose half their Leaver dominated readership to the likes of the Express. The most they could go is RefUK but then they lose most of their influence.

    Of those papers which endorsed the Tories in 2019 only the Times could risk endorsing Starmer or Davey and not lose half its readers in the process
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,058

    CatMan said:

    Stokes first 3 balls of that over were no balls before the wicket taking one but 3rd Umpires not calling them. Hmmmmmm, if I was in to conspiracy theories I'd say the Aussie umpires did that on purpose!

    There is no reason why no-balls can't be called automatically using tech.
    They are called every time using tech/3rd umpire in T20s etc now aren't they?

    Just not Tests unless its a wicket?
    I've seen them checked in Tests recently, but it's the third umpire who does it.

    I think the Hawkeye people have been working on something that checks it automatically for a while, though I don't know how that's going.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,988
    edited December 2021
    CatMan said:

    CatMan said:

    Stokes first 3 balls of that over were no balls before the wicket taking one but 3rd Umpires not calling them. Hmmmmmm, if I was in to conspiracy theories I'd say the Aussie umpires did that on purpose!

    There is no reason why no-balls can't be called automatically using tech.
    They are called every time using tech/3rd umpire in T20s etc now aren't they?

    Just not Tests unless its a wicket?
    I've seen them checked in Tests recently, but it's the third umpire who does it.

    I think the Hawkeye people have been working on something that checks it automatically for a while, though I don't know how that's going.
    A while...what are they playing at...Its trivial, given they have many high speed cameras focused on that area and because of Hawkeye DRS system they have the pitch location already perfectly calibrated in their system.

    I could code it in a few days. There are numerous academic papers that have addressed this kind of problem and shown very good results, without even having the multi-camera view with perfect calibration and knowing you won't have to handle hidden view.
  • CatMan said:

    CatMan said:

    Stokes first 3 balls of that over were no balls before the wicket taking one but 3rd Umpires not calling them. Hmmmmmm, if I was in to conspiracy theories I'd say the Aussie umpires did that on purpose!

    There is no reason why no-balls can't be called automatically using tech.
    They are called every time using tech/3rd umpire in T20s etc now aren't they?

    Just not Tests unless its a wicket?
    I've seen them checked in Tests recently, but it's the third umpire who does it.

    I think the Hawkeye people have been working on something that checks it automatically for a while, though I don't know how that's going.
    A while...what are they playing at...Its trivial, given they have many high speed cameras focused on that area and because of Hawkeye DRS system they have the pitch location already perfectly calibrated in their system.

    I could code it in a few days. There are numerous academic papers that have addressed this kind of problem and shown very good results, without even having the multi-camera view with perfect calibration and knowing you won't have to handle hidden view.
    I'm guessing the issue is speed?

    It takes about a minute to get DRS processed. You're going to want the No Ball called within seconds not minutes.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,988
    edited December 2021

    CatMan said:

    CatMan said:

    Stokes first 3 balls of that over were no balls before the wicket taking one but 3rd Umpires not calling them. Hmmmmmm, if I was in to conspiracy theories I'd say the Aussie umpires did that on purpose!

    There is no reason why no-balls can't be called automatically using tech.
    They are called every time using tech/3rd umpire in T20s etc now aren't they?

    Just not Tests unless its a wicket?
    I've seen them checked in Tests recently, but it's the third umpire who does it.

    I think the Hawkeye people have been working on something that checks it automatically for a while, though I don't know how that's going.
    A while...what are they playing at...Its trivial, given they have many high speed cameras focused on that area and because of Hawkeye DRS system they have the pitch location already perfectly calibrated in their system.

    I could code it in a few days. There are numerous academic papers that have addressed this kind of problem and shown very good results, without even having the multi-camera view with perfect calibration and knowing you won't have to handle hidden view.
    I'm guessing the issue is speed?

    It takes about a minute to get DRS processed. You're going to want the No Ball called within seconds not minutes.
    Actually no. The slow speed of DRS is because they are not only having to track the ball, then make a precise prediction of where the ball would have travelled given it was obstructed part of the way through its flight. Then determining where all of that is in relation to stumps etc.

    A No-Ball literally just need to establish if the foot was behind the line or not. There are already real-time tracking system for accurate 3d tracking of human motion from video, which are able to cope with more complex schemes than focusing on a very small area of a pitch, in which you have an unobstructed view, precise calibration and a very specific aim. You literally just need to establish foot location in a few frames, where it was in 3d space, and you know from all your calibration if that was behind or not. You aren't trying to do any prediction into the future, trying to work out unseen action, etc.

    Hawkeye, themselves have already demonstrated they can do real-time for tennis to determine if the ball was in or not.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552
    Really bad umpiring not to call the 3 no balls prior to the wicket. If they had been called, Stokes would have made an effort not to keep doing it.
  • Also really bad bowling to bowl 3 no balls prior to missing out on a wicket
  • And now the Australians are going to pile on the runs.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552

    Also really bad bowling to bowl 3 no balls prior to missing out on a wicket

    Yes but when the on field umpires used to call no-balls it gave the bowler an immediate indication he was doing something wrong and he would usually correct it on the next ball. So there probably wouldn't have been more than one no-ball from Stokes in that over. I don't know why the on field umpires can't call no balls like they always used to do for about 140 years.
  • The UK's chief veterinary officer has told the BBC there is a "phenomenal level" of avian flu in the UK.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-59585618
  • Australia's deputy prime minister has tested positive for coronavirus after arriving in the US on an official visit.

    Barnaby Joyce said he believed he had been infected while visiting the UK earlier this week.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-59589043
  • Meanwhile, a Conservative Party spokesperson has confirmed four of its staff - who had been seconded to the party's London mayoral campaign - were disciplined following an unauthorised social gathering in one of the party's offices on 14 December last year.

    The BBC has also been told that last year several Downing Street staff members attended a gathering with Carrie Johnson in the flat where the prime minister and his wife live after former aides Dominic Cummings and Lee Cain had left No 10.

    A source said music was blaring and could be heard elsewhere in the building.

    The party is understood to have taken place on 13 November last year, when England was in lockdown, with people barred from meeting indoors or in private gardens.

    But several of those who were said to have been there have told the BBC the claims are not true and Mrs Johnson's spokeswoman denied there was party on 13 November.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-59588413
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,454
    Everyone is bed wetting but Boris is going nowhere and the Tories will win North Shropshire.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552
    Rory Burns drops an easy catch at slip — Warner on 48.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    Ah, so it’s not simply a crap pitch, it’s more that England cant’t bat, and England can’t bowl.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582

    CatMan said:

    Stokes first 3 balls of that over were no balls before the wicket taking one but 3rd Umpires not calling them. Hmmmmmm, if I was in to conspiracy theories I'd say the Aussie umpires did that on purpose!

    There is no reason why no-balls can't be called automatically using tech.
    They are called every time using tech/3rd umpire in T20s etc now aren't they?

    Just not Tests unless its a wicket?
    Yes, at the T20, the 3rd ump calls no-balls in close to real time. Assume he has a TV replay or something similar to the tennis ‘beep’ system.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552
    The tech was down, but the on-field umpires could have been informed and gone back to calling no balls themselves like they always used to do until relatively recently.
  • Seems like Stokes is also injured.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,889
    edited December 2021

    Everyone is bed wetting but Boris is going nowhere and the Tories will win North Shropshire.

    I am contemplating a small wager at evens. Postal voters will not have seen yesterday's PMQs.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582

    Everyone is bed wetting but Boris is going nowhere and the Tories will win North Shropshire.

    I am contemplating a small wager at evens. Postal voters will not have seen yesterday's PMQs.
    Good point about postal votes.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,131
    edited December 2021
    Morning all.

    The tabloid and other Tory press front pages are absolutely terrible for the government today, and nearly all of them are also tied up with the Covid measures too.

    Quite apart from the Tory party, there's also surely going to be pressure on the government from parts of the scientific establishment now , too, because people like Chris Whitty, and many others behind the scenes, are going to be furious that he's blunting and confusing their messaging.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,131
    edited December 2021
    And lo and behold..

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/09/debacle-over-no-10-christmas-party-threatens-efforts-to-control-pandemic

    "Debacle over No 10 Christmas party "threatens efforts to control pandemic"
  • As i predicted, the Swedish Greens have been punished by resigning from the coalition government: now under the 4% threshold (along with the Liberals).

    Magdalena Andersson (S), our first woman PM, gives her party a big boost, to 29% (+4).

    All other changes in VI too small to be statistically reliable.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631

    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:

    Also - the Instagram index rates the Boris party as very highly engaging. All of the meme pages, stories from real friends and other randoms are on it. This isn't going away and plan b has magnified the errors. It's exactly what I expected to happen, this announcement would end up making it worse for Boris rather than distracting everyone.

    My wife is livid tonight and has said she's going to vote for Starmer next time.
    Mrs Foxy was nearly in tears earlier watching the news. She loathes Johnson, but the thought of his partying away while she couldn't see her mother in a Nursing home last Christmas, her final Christmas brought it all back. That anger is real with the British public, just listen to any vox pop or phone in.
    🙁. I can appreciate how this could bring back bad memories with a sense of injustice.

    Where do you stand on compulsory Covid vaccination ahead of this debate kicking off Foxy? Where should libdems stand on it?
    I am against it, apart from reasonable occupational requirements like my own.

    I think an NI surcharge, rebated to those vaccinated is reasonable though. I would also allow those with documented proof of infection to be excluded, as it does seem to give similar immunity, or at least seemed to before omicron.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:

    Also - the Instagram index rates the Boris party as very highly engaging. All of the meme pages, stories from real friends and other randoms are on it. This isn't going away and plan b has magnified the errors. It's exactly what I expected to happen, this announcement would end up making it worse for Boris rather than distracting everyone.

    My wife is livid tonight and has said she's going to vote for Starmer next time.
    Mrs Foxy was nearly in tears earlier watching the news. She loathes Johnson, but the thought of his partying away while she couldn't see her mother in a Nursing home last Christmas, her final Christmas brought it all back. That anger is real with the British public, just listen to any vox pop or phone in.
    🙁. I can appreciate how this could bring back bad memories with a sense of injustice.

    Where do you stand on compulsory Covid vaccination ahead of this debate kicking off Foxy? Where should libdems stand on it?
    I am against it, apart from reasonable occupational requirements like my own.

    I think an NI surcharge, rebated to those vaccinated is reasonable though. I would also allow those with documented proof of infection to be excluded, as it does seem to give similar immunity, or at least seemed to before omicron.
    I wouldn't leave an exclusion for prior infection: it would make the system more complex, and encourage anti-vaxxers to get Covid rather than get jabbed - with all the problems that would cause. It's also unclear whether prior infection does offer similar immunity.

    The message needs to be simple: Get jabbed, people.
  • New Zealand is banning young people from ever being allowed to buy cigarettes in a rolling program that aims to make the entire country smoke-free by 2025.

    No-one under the age of 14 will ever be allowed to buy cigarettes in their lifetime in a desperate bid to eradicate smoking from the country.

    Each year the age limit will be increased until it's illegal for the entire nation under NZ Prime Minister Jacinda Adern's radical plan.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10290201/New-Zealand-BANS-smoking-Young-people-NEVER-buy-cigarettes-nation-goes-smoke-free.html

    WTF is it a "desperate bid" ? Such nannying crap . Presumably smoking is banned in indoor areas in NZ so smokers are only endangering their own health. What a crap world we live in with this nannying culture and government can solve everything rubbish (as we see with our ridiculous plan B )
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631

    New Zealand is banning young people from ever being allowed to buy cigarettes in a rolling program that aims to make the entire country smoke-free by 2025.

    No-one under the age of 14 will ever be allowed to buy cigarettes in their lifetime in a desperate bid to eradicate smoking from the country.

    Each year the age limit will be increased until it's illegal for the entire nation under NZ Prime Minister Jacinda Adern's radical plan.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10290201/New-Zealand-BANS-smoking-Young-people-NEVER-buy-cigarettes-nation-goes-smoke-free.html

    I worked in a respiratory unit in NZ 30 years ago. For some not entirely clear reason they have a terrible problem with asthma. We would get people in who would carry on deteriating on admission despite nebuliser, steroid and iv infusions of bronchodilators, then wind up intubated. Much worse than I had seen in the UK. Maoris were particularly bad, and had a very high smoking rate. I agree, time for the ban, and something reasonable to copy here.
  • And lo and behold..

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/09/debacle-over-no-10-christmas-party-threatens-efforts-to-control-pandemic

    "Debacle over No 10 Christmas party "threatens efforts to control pandemic"

    Not sure when the penny will drop with people that you cannot control a pandemic
  • HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Don’t go to work, but do go to parties, says Boris Johnson
    Immediate backlash at ‘irrational’ new Covid rules after Prime Minister moves England to Plan B

    Telegraph

    There is no way Chris Witty et al advice was this. I bet there advice was back to WFH + rule of 6 type thing.
    I would say so.

    There is a grim inevitability feel to this. By, say 18th, we will be being told to keep to small gatherings (rule of 6) and so on.

    I am very low tonight.
    Quite honestly, who knows with this bunch of poisonous clowns? They might announce something else next week; they might just as easily let hospitality have the festive season and then implement a repeat of last Winter's lockdown, starting on the 3rd of January and lasting until Easter.

    The rules change from week to week, they're capricious and they're arbitrary. You never know when you're going to be hit and it's impossible to plan for or look forward to pretty much any activity that can't be done through effing Zoom. All we can do is ignore them to the best of our ability, although the poor bloody businesses, which are sitting ducks for this kind of regulation, don't have that option.
    You might be right about giving the hospitality trade the xmas season. Then hard lockdown on 3rd Jan.

    Hopefully, Sunak will resign in protest and we can have a leadership election.
    That's my assumption. Give pubs and caffs and the rest a chance to make a decent Xmas income. Total lockdown in early Jan as Omicron bites, like a dominatrix on Ket

    The lockdown will be shorter than last year because Omicron is much brisker in its business. Six weeks not 16? Still fucking grim to the max



    There won't be another lockdown, at most vaxports will be extended beyond clubs and large events to restaurants, pubs, cinemas and theatres.

    Most of use have been double vaccinated, by January most of us will have had our boosters. The only real risk of hospitalisation therefore from Omicron will be from the unvaccinated and vaxports can deal with them
    Given this variant is even less serious than the other one it is stupid we are imposing restrictions. i honesty think the population is made up of cowardly sheep if they support this crap
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748
    Here is the preprint of the German vaccine antibody study whose plots of results appeared on Twitter last night:
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.07.21267432v1.full.pdf

  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Don’t go to work, but do go to parties, says Boris Johnson
    Immediate backlash at ‘irrational’ new Covid rules after Prime Minister moves England to Plan B

    Telegraph

    There is no way Chris Witty et al advice was this. I bet there advice was back to WFH + rule of 6 type thing.
    I would say so.

    There is a grim inevitability feel to this. By, say 18th, we will be being told to keep to small gatherings (rule of 6) and so on.

    I am very low tonight.
    Quite honestly, who knows with this bunch of poisonous clowns? They might announce something else next week; they might just as easily let hospitality have the festive season and then implement a repeat of last Winter's lockdown, starting on the 3rd of January and lasting until Easter.

    The rules change from week to week, they're capricious and they're arbitrary. You never know when you're going to be hit and it's impossible to plan for or look forward to pretty much any activity that can't be done through effing Zoom. All we can do is ignore them to the best of our ability, although the poor bloody businesses, which are sitting ducks for this kind of regulation, don't have that option.
    You might be right about giving the hospitality trade the xmas season. Then hard lockdown on 3rd Jan.

    Hopefully, Sunak will resign in protest and we can have a leadership election.
    That's my assumption. Give pubs and caffs and the rest a chance to make a decent Xmas income. Total lockdown in early Jan as Omicron bites, like a dominatrix on Ket

    The lockdown will be shorter than last year because Omicron is much brisker in its business. Six weeks not 16? Still fucking grim to the max



    There won't be another lockdown, at most vaxports will be extended beyond clubs and large events to restaurants, pubs, cinemas and theatres.

    Most of use have been double vaccinated, by January most of us will have had our boosters. The only real risk of hospitalisation therefore from Omicron will be from the unvaccinated and vaxports can deal with them
    Given this variant is even less serious than the other one it is stupid we are imposing restrictions. i honesty think the population is made up of cowardly sheep if they support this crap
    "Omicron is milder" seems to have become the new "COVID is no worse than flu".
  • Good morning, fellow organic units of state work.

    I, for one, welcome our inevitable tracking, monitoring, and control by means of the vaccine passport. What does returning to normal mean if not giving the state the power to immediately socially and occupationally ostracise us if we decide not to do as commanded?

    ...

    Get that authoritarian clown out of Number 10.
  • Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Don’t go to work, but do go to parties, says Boris Johnson
    Immediate backlash at ‘irrational’ new Covid rules after Prime Minister moves England to Plan B

    Telegraph

    There is no way Chris Witty et al advice was this. I bet there advice was back to WFH + rule of 6 type thing.
    I would say so.

    There is a grim inevitability feel to this. By, say 18th, we will be being told to keep to small gatherings (rule of 6) and so on.

    I am very low tonight.
    Quite honestly, who knows with this bunch of poisonous clowns? They might announce something else next week; they might just as easily let hospitality have the festive season and then implement a repeat of last Winter's lockdown, starting on the 3rd of January and lasting until Easter.

    The rules change from week to week, they're capricious and they're arbitrary. You never know when you're going to be hit and it's impossible to plan for or look forward to pretty much any activity that can't be done through effing Zoom. All we can do is ignore them to the best of our ability, although the poor bloody businesses, which are sitting ducks for this kind of regulation, don't have that option.
    You might be right about giving the hospitality trade the xmas season. Then hard lockdown on 3rd Jan.

    Hopefully, Sunak will resign in protest and we can have a leadership election.
    That's my assumption. Give pubs and caffs and the rest a chance to make a decent Xmas income. Total lockdown in early Jan as Omicron bites, like a dominatrix on Ket

    The lockdown will be shorter than last year because Omicron is much brisker in its business. Six weeks not 16? Still fucking grim to the max



    There won't be another lockdown, at most vaxports will be extended beyond clubs and large events to restaurants, pubs, cinemas and theatres.

    Most of use have been double vaccinated, by January most of us will have had our boosters. The only real risk of hospitalisation therefore from Omicron will be from the unvaccinated and vaxports can deal with them
    Given this variant is even less serious than the other one it is stupid we are imposing restrictions. i honesty think the population is made up of cowardly sheep if they support this crap
    "Omicron is milder" seems to have become the new "COVID is no worse than flu".
    Well its true isn't it?
  • Good morning, fellow organic units of state work.

    I, for one, welcome our inevitable tracking, monitoring, and control by means of the vaccine passport. What does returning to normal mean if not giving the state the power to immediately socially and occupationally ostracise us if we decide not to do as commanded?

    ...

    Get that authoritarian clown out of Number 10.

    My worry is anyone following will be more authoritarian .
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Foxy said:

    New Zealand is banning young people from ever being allowed to buy cigarettes in a rolling program that aims to make the entire country smoke-free by 2025.

    No-one under the age of 14 will ever be allowed to buy cigarettes in their lifetime in a desperate bid to eradicate smoking from the country.

    Each year the age limit will be increased until it's illegal for the entire nation under NZ Prime Minister Jacinda Adern's radical plan.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10290201/New-Zealand-BANS-smoking-Young-people-NEVER-buy-cigarettes-nation-goes-smoke-free.html

    I worked in a respiratory unit in NZ 30 years ago. For some not entirely clear reason they have a terrible problem with asthma. We would get people in who would carry on deteriating on admission despite nebuliser, steroid and iv infusions of bronchodilators, then wind up intubated. Much worse than I had seen in the UK. Maoris were particularly bad, and had a very high smoking rate. I agree, time for the ban, and something reasonable to copy here.
    What is your view on banning alcohol or at least alcohol over a certain level? Surely, the impact is greater, particularly when it comes to societal effects (drink driving crashes, crimes committed where alcohol has played a part etc)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631
    MrEd said:

    Foxy said:

    New Zealand is banning young people from ever being allowed to buy cigarettes in a rolling program that aims to make the entire country smoke-free by 2025.

    No-one under the age of 14 will ever be allowed to buy cigarettes in their lifetime in a desperate bid to eradicate smoking from the country.

    Each year the age limit will be increased until it's illegal for the entire nation under NZ Prime Minister Jacinda Adern's radical plan.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10290201/New-Zealand-BANS-smoking-Young-people-NEVER-buy-cigarettes-nation-goes-smoke-free.html

    I worked in a respiratory unit in NZ 30 years ago. For some not entirely clear reason they have a terrible problem with asthma. We would get people in who would carry on deteriating on admission despite nebuliser, steroid and iv infusions of bronchodilators, then wind up intubated. Much worse than I had seen in the UK. Maoris were particularly bad, and had a very high smoking rate. I agree, time for the ban, and something reasonable to copy here.
    What is your view on banning alcohol or at least alcohol over a certain level? Surely, the impact is greater, particularly when it comes to societal effects (drink driving crashes, crimes committed where alcohol has played a part etc)
    I am against banning alcohol, or gambling, both of which do significant societal harm.

    Tobacco is universally harmful, alcohol and gambling in moderation are positive parts of life.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Don’t go to work, but do go to parties, says Boris Johnson
    Immediate backlash at ‘irrational’ new Covid rules after Prime Minister moves England to Plan B

    Telegraph

    There is no way Chris Witty et al advice was this. I bet there advice was back to WFH + rule of 6 type thing.
    I would say so.

    There is a grim inevitability feel to this. By, say 18th, we will be being told to keep to small gatherings (rule of 6) and so on.

    I am very low tonight.
    Quite honestly, who knows with this bunch of poisonous clowns? They might announce something else next week; they might just as easily let hospitality have the festive season and then implement a repeat of last Winter's lockdown, starting on the 3rd of January and lasting until Easter.

    The rules change from week to week, they're capricious and they're arbitrary. You never know when you're going to be hit and it's impossible to plan for or look forward to pretty much any activity that can't be done through effing Zoom. All we can do is ignore them to the best of our ability, although the poor bloody businesses, which are sitting ducks for this kind of regulation, don't have that option.
    You might be right about giving the hospitality trade the xmas season. Then hard lockdown on 3rd Jan.

    Hopefully, Sunak will resign in protest and we can have a leadership election.
    That's my assumption. Give pubs and caffs and the rest a chance to make a decent Xmas income. Total lockdown in early Jan as Omicron bites, like a dominatrix on Ket

    The lockdown will be shorter than last year because Omicron is much brisker in its business. Six weeks not 16? Still fucking grim to the max



    There won't be another lockdown, at most vaxports will be extended beyond clubs and large events to restaurants, pubs, cinemas and theatres.

    Most of use have been double vaccinated, by January most of us will have had our boosters. The only real risk of hospitalisation therefore from Omicron will be from the unvaccinated and vaxports can deal with them
    Given this variant is even less serious than the other one it is stupid we are imposing restrictions. i honesty think the population is made up of cowardly sheep if they support this crap
    "Omicron is milder" seems to have become the new "COVID is no worse than flu".
    Well its true isn't it?
    We don't know yet is the honest answer. We have only identified it 2 weeks ago.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    edited December 2021

    Good morning, fellow organic units of state work.

    I, for one, welcome our inevitable tracking, monitoring, and control by means of the vaccine passport. What does returning to normal mean if not giving the state the power to immediately socially and occupationally ostracise us if we decide not to do as commanded?

    ...

    Get that authoritarian clown out of Number 10.

    There are hordes of stupid, dumb and naive people who would actually walk straight in to this type of state control. They think they've got nothing to hide, and will be led like lemmings in to a totalitarian nightmare.

    However, some perspective is needed. The clown we have in No.10 is probably the least authoritarian of all the options. It is no accident that the authoritarian measures bought forward all have get out clauses - IE the rules on vaccine passports allow for you to order a paper certificate without having an app; and if you don't want to get vaccinated, you can administer a self reported negative LFT test. If you think you have a health problem, you don't have to wear a mask and no one can question you, and so on.

    On balance, we should be grateful for what we have got. You can see how the 'progressives' around the world have seized on Covid to introduce genuine authoritarian measures, and benefit from popular support in doing so. You can see this with the SNP in Scotland - it is hard to believe that a labour government under Starmer would be much different.

  • F1: kerbs might be aggressive in Abu Dhabi.

    https://twitter.com/AlbertFabrega/status/1468660602994405385
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    HYUFD said:

    THE SUN SAYS Partygate is a failure of leadership that cannot and must not continue

    Boris is a goner. Just like Warner.

    The Sun just hates vaxports, most voters don't
    No but they do hate hypocrisy and lies. Whether you are for or against any of the restrictions, the sight of those in power making rules that blight the lives of millions whilst they ignore those same rules themselves should make you sick. It does any normal decent people - and plenty of us who are abnormal and indecent as well. Even we think Johnson is beyond the pale.
    I'm not sure this is the fatal blow to BJ (he is a master of begging for and getting forgiveness), his fate rests in the hands of backbenchers who have no clear alternative esp as the grandees are tainted by the EU/May years in the eyes of many MPs. This will limp on into Spring is my sense - but I'm more than happy to be be proved wrong.
    That is my feeling as well. There really is no clear alternative. The other main candidates all have negative points against them and, moreover, I’m not sure the 2019 intake will go for a candidate announced by the grandees. Personal view is that BJ will get worried when there is a credible alternative that appeals to Red Wall voters. There is none yet.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    edited December 2021
    Will the Nationality and Borders bill quietly pass during the partygate fallout ?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/08/citizenship-politics-nationality-and-border-bill-repatriation-deportation
    … Under the proposals, any foreign-born British citizen can be deprived of their citizenship, without notice or notification. Dual citizenship is not a precondition; they can be made stateless so long as the British government believes they are eligible for citizenship of another country. Analysis from the 2011 census, by the New Statesman, finds an astronomical number of people – 5.5 million in England and Wales – who fall into this category, including about 408,000 people born in the UK.…
  • Mr. Away, possible.

    Mr. Age, jein. It could be worse but we should not be grateful for this step down an authoritarian road. As mentioned above, it would now be easier for a more statist PM to extend and deepen this barbaric passport bullshit.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067

    Good morning, fellow organic units of state work.

    I, for one, welcome our inevitable tracking, monitoring, and control by means of the vaccine passport. What does returning to normal mean if not giving the state the power to immediately socially and occupationally ostracise us if we decide not to do as commanded?

    ...

    Get that authoritarian clown out of Number 10.

    And replace him with a sober authoritarian ?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Meanwhile a choice between the Sun, the Mirror and the Star front pages to illustrate the next thread…..
  • Nigelb said:

    Will the Nationality and Borders bill quietly pass during the partygate fallout ?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/08/citizenship-politics-nationality-and-border-bill-repatriation-deportation
    … Under the proposals, any foreign-born British citizen can be deprived of their citizenship, without notice or notification. Dual citizenship is not a precondition; they can be made stateless so long as the British government believes they are eligible for citizenship of another country. Analysis from the 2011 census, by the New Statesman, finds an astronomical number of people – 5.5 million in England and Wales – who fall into this category, including about 408,000 people born in the UK.…

    It has hardly been mentioned in the media. An absolute disgrace creating a second class of citizen. Something you would expect only of a far right party.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631
    Nigelb said:

    Will the Nationality and Borders bill quietly pass during the partygate fallout ?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/08/citizenship-politics-nationality-and-border-bill-repatriation-deportation
    … Under the proposals, any foreign-born British citizen can be deprived of their citizenship, without notice or notification. Dual citizenship is not a precondition; they can be made stateless so long as the British government believes they are eligible for citizenship of another country. Analysis from the 2011 census, by the New Statesman, finds an astronomical number of people – 5.5 million in England and Wales – who fall into this category, including about 408,000 people born in the UK.…

    Probably more than that, given Irish ancestry etc. Indeed it may include me because of my eligibility for an Australian passport.
  • Mr. Above, the political media being totally incompetent? Quelle surprise.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Don’t go to work, but do go to parties, says Boris Johnson
    Immediate backlash at ‘irrational’ new Covid rules after Prime Minister moves England to Plan B

    Telegraph

    There is no way Chris Witty et al advice was this. I bet there advice was back to WFH + rule of 6 type thing.
    I would say so.

    There is a grim inevitability feel to this. By, say 18th, we will be being told to keep to small gatherings (rule of 6) and so on.

    I am very low tonight.
    Quite honestly, who knows with this bunch of poisonous clowns? They might announce something else next week; they might just as easily let hospitality have the festive season and then implement a repeat of last Winter's lockdown, starting on the 3rd of January and lasting until Easter.

    The rules change from week to week, they're capricious and they're arbitrary. You never know when you're going to be hit and it's impossible to plan for or look forward to pretty much any activity that can't be done through effing Zoom. All we can do is ignore them to the best of our ability, although the poor bloody businesses, which are sitting ducks for this kind of regulation, don't have that option.
    You might be right about giving the hospitality trade the xmas season. Then hard lockdown on 3rd Jan.

    Hopefully, Sunak will resign in protest and we can have a leadership election.
    That's my assumption. Give pubs and caffs and the rest a chance to make a decent Xmas income. Total lockdown in early Jan as Omicron bites, like a dominatrix on Ket

    The lockdown will be shorter than last year because Omicron is much brisker in its business. Six weeks not 16? Still fucking grim to the max



    There won't be another lockdown, at most vaxports will be extended beyond clubs and large events to restaurants, pubs, cinemas and theatres.

    Most of use have been double vaccinated, by January most of us will have had our boosters. The only real risk of hospitalisation therefore from Omicron will be from the unvaccinated and vaxports can deal with them
    Given this variant is even less serious than the other one it is stupid we are imposing restrictions. i honesty think the population is made up of cowardly sheep if they support this crap
    "Omicron is milder" seems to have become the new "COVID is no worse than flu".
    Well its true isn't it?
    Nearly every day about a dozen scientists tell us it's too early to say. Maybe you missed all those statements.

    We've got evidence from South Africa that on average people in hospital who are positive for COVID have milder symptoms than was the case in the Delta wave. But we also know that a lot of the people with mild symptoms were admitted for other reasons and just happen to have been found to be positive for COVID.

    That could quite plausibly explain it, given that there has been a huge recent rate of increase in infections, which will apply just as much to recent hospital admissions for other conditions, whereas there will be a time lag before that increase produces severe illness requiring hospitalisation specifically for COVID.

    The other thing that could explain it, obviously, is that we know there is a higher rate of re-infection (and presumably infection of vaccinated people). If previous infection and vaccination still tend to reduce the severity of Omicron (even if they don't reduce it as much as for Delta), that will reduce the average severity of disease in those infected. Because a higher proportion of those infected have some protection.

    We need to see more careful analysis taking into account the possible confounding factors, particularly age and previous immunity. Previous immunity is probably particularly uncertain in South Africa where much of it comes from infection. But after all this time even simple things like the infection fatality rate of COVID are uncertain. We may not really know how severe Omicron is until people start being hospitalised for it in the UK in significant numbers.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Foxy said:

    MrEd said:

    Foxy said:

    New Zealand is banning young people from ever being allowed to buy cigarettes in a rolling program that aims to make the entire country smoke-free by 2025.

    No-one under the age of 14 will ever be allowed to buy cigarettes in their lifetime in a desperate bid to eradicate smoking from the country.

    Each year the age limit will be increased until it's illegal for the entire nation under NZ Prime Minister Jacinda Adern's radical plan.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10290201/New-Zealand-BANS-smoking-Young-people-NEVER-buy-cigarettes-nation-goes-smoke-free.html

    I worked in a respiratory unit in NZ 30 years ago. For some not entirely clear reason they have a terrible problem with asthma. We would get people in who would carry on deteriating on admission despite nebuliser, steroid and iv infusions of bronchodilators, then wind up intubated. Much worse than I had seen in the UK. Maoris were particularly bad, and had a very high smoking rate. I agree, time for the ban, and something reasonable to copy here.
    What is your view on banning alcohol or at least alcohol over a certain level? Surely, the impact is greater, particularly when it comes to societal effects (drink driving crashes, crimes committed where alcohol has played a part etc)
    I am against banning alcohol, or gambling, both of which do significant societal harm.

    Tobacco is universally harmful, alcohol and gambling in moderation are positive parts of life.
    But actually both alcohol and gambling have the potential to cause significant harm to others by their nature. How many crimes have been committed by people under the influence? How many people’s lives have been ruined by gambling, which has also impacted their families?

    Smoking is very much an issue where the “payment” lies with the individual doing it. Sure, the health service gets hit but then, if that is your argument, unless smoking causes a disproportionate burden relative to other self inflicted conditions (and you can add obesity into that list as well), why not ban them?

    I’d also disagree with the idea smoking is universally harmful. Sure, if you are smoking 20 or 40 a day but what about 2-3, which would surely be counted as moderation. For many people, an occasional cigarette can help them de-stress or take a time out.

    I think the real reason why banning smoking is deemed as acceptable is the point John Reid identified when he complained about Labour putting up taxes on cigarettes - you’re disproportionately impacting poorer people where smoking is one of the few joys they have in life. Smoking is seen now days as very much a class thing - if you smoke, you will generally be seen as being poor. Alcohol of course isn’t - Heaven forbid the Burgundy is banned.

    There is no logical argument to ban one and not the other. It’s merely another expression of the middle class progressives imposing their wishes with the price being paid by poorer people.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631

    Nigelb said:

    Will the Nationality and Borders bill quietly pass during the partygate fallout ?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/08/citizenship-politics-nationality-and-border-bill-repatriation-deportation
    … Under the proposals, any foreign-born British citizen can be deprived of their citizenship, without notice or notification. Dual citizenship is not a precondition; they can be made stateless so long as the British government believes they are eligible for citizenship of another country. Analysis from the 2011 census, by the New Statesman, finds an astronomical number of people – 5.5 million in England and Wales – who fall into this category, including about 408,000 people born in the UK.…

    It has hardly been mentioned in the media. An absolute disgrace creating a second class of citizen. Something you would expect only of a far right party.
    Yes, and combine it with criminalising protests "likely to annoy", far more authoritarian than vaccine/test passports to access public venues.
  • Nigelb said:

    Good morning, fellow organic units of state work.

    I, for one, welcome our inevitable tracking, monitoring, and control by means of the vaccine passport. What does returning to normal mean if not giving the state the power to immediately socially and occupationally ostracise us if we decide not to do as commanded?

    ...

    Get that authoritarian clown out of Number 10.

    And replace him with a sober authoritarian ?
    So the plot of Stephen Fry's "Making History"?

    Go back in time, prevent Hitler, see him replaced by someone just as evil but more competent...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Sandpit said:

    Everyone is bed wetting but Boris is going nowhere and the Tories will win North Shropshire.

    I am contemplating a small wager at evens. Postal voters will not have seen yesterday's PMQs.
    Good point about postal votes.
    Yes and no. It’s true that a chunk are sent straight back, but a lot are held until the last week and nowadays a fair few are brought in by hand to the polling station (although I’d guess this is a little less common in the very rural areas). If you hypothesise not unreasonably that those being filled in and sent back straight away are most likely to be committed rather than floating voters, and then consider that postal voters generally are less likely to be floating voters, the ‘in the bag’ effect of early postal returns is usually overstated.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Will the Nationality and Borders bill quietly pass during the partygate fallout ?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/08/citizenship-politics-nationality-and-border-bill-repatriation-deportation
    … Under the proposals, any foreign-born British citizen can be deprived of their citizenship, without notice or notification. Dual citizenship is not a precondition; they can be made stateless so long as the British government believes they are eligible for citizenship of another country. Analysis from the 2011 census, by the New Statesman, finds an astronomical number of people – 5.5 million in England and Wales – who fall into this category, including about 408,000 people born in the UK.…

    It has hardly been mentioned in the media. An absolute disgrace creating a second class of citizen. Something you would expect only of a far right party.
    Yes, and combine it with criminalising protests "likely to annoy", far more authoritarian than vaccine/test passports to access public venues.
    The online safety legislation is also worth a look.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Foxy said:

    New Zealand is banning young people from ever being allowed to buy cigarettes in a rolling program that aims to make the entire country smoke-free by 2025.

    No-one under the age of 14 will ever be allowed to buy cigarettes in their lifetime in a desperate bid to eradicate smoking from the country.

    Each year the age limit will be increased until it's illegal for the entire nation under NZ Prime Minister Jacinda Adern's radical plan.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10290201/New-Zealand-BANS-smoking-Young-people-NEVER-buy-cigarettes-nation-goes-smoke-free.html

    I worked in a respiratory unit in NZ 30 years ago. For some not entirely clear reason they have a terrible problem with asthma. We would get people in who would carry on deteriating on admission despite nebuliser, steroid and iv infusions of bronchodilators, then wind up intubated. Much worse than I had seen in the UK. Maoris were particularly bad, and had a very high smoking rate. I agree, time for the ban, and something reasonable to copy here.
    I am not a fan of Jacinda Adern but I think this is a great idea. Smoking has no positive effects on society and this is a good way to help prevent people starting in the first place. It is a 50+ year programme to prohibiting smoking completely.
  • Dr. Foxy, not diminishing the protesting ban/law but vaccine passes can very easily be widened in terms of control, and become long term. They're not a small problem, they're potentially (and, I would argue, probably) the beginning of a much bigger one.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Don’t go to work, but do go to parties, says Boris Johnson
    Immediate backlash at ‘irrational’ new Covid rules after Prime Minister moves England to Plan B

    Telegraph

    There is no way Chris Witty et al advice was this. I bet there advice was back to WFH + rule of 6 type thing.
    I would say so.

    There is a grim inevitability feel to this. By, say 18th, we will be being told to keep to small gatherings (rule of 6) and so on.

    I am very low tonight.
    Quite honestly, who knows with this bunch of poisonous clowns? They might announce something else next week; they might just as easily let hospitality have the festive season and then implement a repeat of last Winter's lockdown, starting on the 3rd of January and lasting until Easter.

    The rules change from week to week, they're capricious and they're arbitrary. You never know when you're going to be hit and it's impossible to plan for or look forward to pretty much any activity that can't be done through effing Zoom. All we can do is ignore them to the best of our ability, although the poor bloody businesses, which are sitting ducks for this kind of regulation, don't have that option.
    You might be right about giving the hospitality trade the xmas season. Then hard lockdown on 3rd Jan.

    Hopefully, Sunak will resign in protest and we can have a leadership election.
    That's my assumption. Give pubs and caffs and the rest a chance to make a decent Xmas income. Total lockdown in early Jan as Omicron bites, like a dominatrix on Ket

    The lockdown will be shorter than last year because Omicron is much brisker in its business. Six weeks not 16? Still fucking grim to the max



    There won't be another lockdown, at most vaxports will be extended beyond clubs and large events to restaurants, pubs, cinemas and theatres.

    Most of use have been double vaccinated, by January most of us will have had our boosters. The only real risk of hospitalisation therefore from Omicron will be from the unvaccinated and vaxports can deal with them
    Given this variant is even less serious than the other one it is stupid we are imposing restrictions. i honesty think the population is made up of cowardly sheep if they support this crap
    "Omicron is milder" seems to have become the new "COVID is no worse than flu".
    Well its true isn't it?
    Nearly every day about a dozen scientists tell us it's too early to say. Maybe you missed all those statements.

    We've got evidence from South Africa that on average people in hospital who are positive for COVID have milder symptoms than was the case in the Delta wave. But we also know that a lot of the people with mild symptoms were admitted for other reasons and just happen to have been found to be positive for COVID.

    That could quite plausibly explain it, given that there has been a huge recent rate of increase in infections, which will apply just as much to recent hospital admissions for other conditions, whereas there will be a time lag before that increase produces severe illness requiring hospitalisation specifically for COVID.

    The other thing that could explain it, obviously, is that we know there is a higher rate of re-infection (and presumably infection of vaccinated people). If previous infection and vaccination still tend to reduce the severity of Omicron (even if they don't reduce it as much as for Delta), that will reduce the average severity of disease in those infected. Because a higher proportion of those infected have some protection.

    We need to see more careful analysis taking into account the possible confounding factors, particularly age and previous immunity. Previous immunity is probably particularly uncertain in South Africa where much of it comes from infection. But after all this time even simple things like the infection fatality rate of COVID are uncertain. We may not really know how severe Omicron is until people start being hospitalised for it in the UK in significant numbers.
    South Africa is also a really poor analogue for the UK. It has a younger population (28 years median compared to 41), which would reduce severity. Countering that, South Africa has a much higher rate of immunodeficiency disease (i.e. AIDS) - 19.1% of adults, compared to around 0.2% in the UK.

    We really have to wait to see what happens in our own population, or a very similar country.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631

    Dr. Foxy, not diminishing the protesting ban/law but vaccine passes can very easily be widened in terms of control, and become long term. They're not a small problem, they're potentially (and, I would argue, probably) the beginning of a much bigger one.

    I get more agitated by actual laws being passed without serious debate than theoretical laws of the future.
  • darkage said:

    Nigelb said:

    Will the Nationality and Borders bill quietly pass during the partygate fallout ?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/08/citizenship-politics-nationality-and-border-bill-repatriation-deportation
    … Under the proposals, any foreign-born British citizen can be deprived of their citizenship, without notice or notification. Dual citizenship is not a precondition; they can be made stateless so long as the British government believes they are eligible for citizenship of another country. Analysis from the 2011 census, by the New Statesman, finds an astronomical number of people – 5.5 million in England and Wales – who fall into this category, including about 408,000 people born in the UK.…

    This is the end of meaningful British citizenship. If you have an Irish grandparent you could be effectively banished to Ireland. Presumably Boris could be made stateless as he is eligible for American citizenship. Large parts of the cabinet could presumably be banished, thinking about it. Many of them have some non-British heritage.

    The sheer magnitude of what is being proposed is incredible. Will someone stand up in Parliament and point out that the legislation could apply to a very large number of MP's and their families? Maybe they need to THINK about the legislation they are passing.

    This is true authoritarianism (as opposed to the benign stuff on covid passes that agitates backbench tory MPs)
    It is utterly disgusting, effectively creating second class citizens with a very significant racial component to it. Although it's worth pointing out that it simply extends what is already happening. As for the stuff on protesting. This government is the absolute worst.
  • Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Will the Nationality and Borders bill quietly pass during the partygate fallout ?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/08/citizenship-politics-nationality-and-border-bill-repatriation-deportation
    … Under the proposals, any foreign-born British citizen can be deprived of their citizenship, without notice or notification. Dual citizenship is not a precondition; they can be made stateless so long as the British government believes they are eligible for citizenship of another country. Analysis from the 2011 census, by the New Statesman, finds an astronomical number of people – 5.5 million in England and Wales – who fall into this category, including about 408,000 people born in the UK.…

    It has hardly been mentioned in the media. An absolute disgrace creating a second class of citizen. Something you would expect only of a far right party.
    Yes, and combine it with criminalising protests "likely to annoy", far more authoritarian than vaccine/test passports to access public venues.
    I was strongly against vaccine passports at the time when youngsters did not have a chance to have the vaccine anyway. I would still be against either extending it to pubs and restaurants as many countries have done, or taking out the test negative option.

    But with a free and quick test, or a free and quick vaccination as easy (and useful and safe) options, I fail to see the big issue with them for large events. I have used the NHS Covid Pass for entry at least a dozen times to various places, it is very simple and quick.

    How "libertarians" are throwing their toys out of their prams about that, yet can't get worked up about 10% of us being reduced to second class temporary citizens, or the executive taking further significant judicial powers into their hands, I do not understand.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748
    Chris said:

    Here is the preprint of the German vaccine antibody study whose plots of results appeared on Twitter last night:
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.07.21267432v1.full.pdf

    I wasn't going to bother to post any comments on this because I don't think many people here are interested in scientific information, but in case anyone does look at it I'll just say that for the comparison between the response of double-dosed and boosted participants, the double-dosed had received their second dose 6 months ago, so there had been time for the effect to wane.

    Possibly when people say a booster produces a similar response against Omicron as two doses produces against Delta, they mean "two doses completed 6 months ago".
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,464
    I reckon a Tory hold in N Shrops is (11/10 on william hill) is a bargain... I know the LDs will push hard but Labour's vote might just hold up, as although handing victory to the LDs may seem fun I cant see Labour's vote moving en masse. Its an interesting one for sure and I have 4 bets on the blues.....
  • Mr. Above, because they'll get extended. In Australia, there's even an app so the government can see where you are whenever they like.

    I agree with you on the citizenship (proposed) law. It's entirely possible to believe the Government is shit in multiple ways at the same time.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Everyone is bed wetting but Boris is going nowhere and the Tories will win North Shropshire.

    I am contemplating a small wager at evens. Postal voters will not have seen yesterday's PMQs.
    Good point about postal votes.
    Yes and no. It’s true that a chunk are sent straight back, but a lot are held until the last week and nowadays a fair few are brought in by hand to the polling station (although I’d guess this is a little less common in the very rural areas). If you hypothesise not unreasonably that those being filled in and sent back straight away are most likely to be committed rather than floating voters, and then consider that postal voters generally are less likely to be floating voters, the ‘in the bag’ effect of early postal returns is usually overstated.
    Yes, but as I pointed out last night, this is "donkey with a blue rosette" territory, and has a strong Labour vote of around 8% less than national polling, that held up at 22% even at Corbyns biggest defeat. I think Tories will scrape home, and are value on current odds.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,131
    edited December 2021
    Nigelb said:

    Will the Nationality and Borders bill quietly pass during the partygate fallout ?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/08/citizenship-politics-nationality-and-border-bill-repatriation-deportation
    … Under the proposals, any foreign-born British citizen can be deprived of their citizenship, without notice or notification. Dual citizenship is not a precondition; they can be made stateless so long as the British government believes they are eligible for citizenship of another country. Analysis from the 2011 census, by the New Statesman, finds an astronomical number of people – 5.5 million in England and Wales – who fall into this category, including about 408,000 people born in the UK.…

    Following on from the proposals earlier in the week that could criminalise any public protest in any shared public place, now this. I've never been more repelled by a government and thought it more imperative for it to be gone, now.
  • Mr. Above, because they'll get extended. In Australia, there's even an app so the government can see where you are whenever they like.

    I agree with you on the citizenship (proposed) law. It's entirely possible to believe the Government is shit in multiple ways at the same time.

    That comes down to the main parties having responsible people with conviction as MPs, so the public can trust them to not let the executive power grab. Nowadays, they are more likely to field people who deserve conviction rather than have it.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    edited December 2021
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Will the Nationality and Borders bill quietly pass during the partygate fallout ?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/08/citizenship-politics-nationality-and-border-bill-repatriation-deportation
    … Under the proposals, any foreign-born British citizen can be deprived of their citizenship, without notice or notification. Dual citizenship is not a precondition; they can be made stateless so long as the British government believes they are eligible for citizenship of another country. Analysis from the 2011 census, by the New Statesman, finds an astronomical number of people – 5.5 million in England and Wales – who fall into this category, including about 408,000 people born in the UK.…

    Probably more than that, given Irish ancestry etc. Indeed it may include me because of my eligibility for an Australian passport.
    It is hard to imagine a more flagrantly racist idea emanating from anywhere but a National Front manifesto: it affects half of British Asians and 39% of Black Britons.

    Note that the Guardian can’t simply oppose a policy on the grounds that it’s simply wrong (and it is wrong). They have to oppose it because it’s racist.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631
    edited December 2021
    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Will the Nationality and Borders bill quietly pass during the partygate fallout ?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/08/citizenship-politics-nationality-and-border-bill-repatriation-deportation
    … Under the proposals, any foreign-born British citizen can be deprived of their citizenship, without notice or notification. Dual citizenship is not a precondition; they can be made stateless so long as the British government believes they are eligible for citizenship of another country. Analysis from the 2011 census, by the New Statesman, finds an astronomical number of people – 5.5 million in England and Wales – who fall into this category, including about 408,000 people born in the UK.…

    Probably more than that, given Irish ancestry etc. Indeed it may include me because of my eligibility for an Australian passport.
    It is hard to imagine a more flagrantly racist idea emanating from anywhere but a National Front manifesto: it affects half of British Asians and 39% of Black Britons.

    Note that the Guardian can’t simply oppose a policy on the grounds that it’s simply wrong (and it is wrong). They have to oppose it because it’s racist.
    Well, it is a valid point!

    Also worth noting that it allows disenfranchisement of many of the 10 million British citizens currently living abroad, a very high proportion of whom would be eligible for citizenship of their host country.
  • Mr. Above, a large portion of the blame for that lies with the media, who subject politicians to incredible (and typically hostile) scrutiny while barely looking at the laws they seek to enact, which can last for decades or even centuries.
  • AlistairM said:

    Foxy said:

    New Zealand is banning young people from ever being allowed to buy cigarettes in a rolling program that aims to make the entire country smoke-free by 2025.

    No-one under the age of 14 will ever be allowed to buy cigarettes in their lifetime in a desperate bid to eradicate smoking from the country.

    Each year the age limit will be increased until it's illegal for the entire nation under NZ Prime Minister Jacinda Adern's radical plan.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10290201/New-Zealand-BANS-smoking-Young-people-NEVER-buy-cigarettes-nation-goes-smoke-free.html

    I worked in a respiratory unit in NZ 30 years ago. For some not entirely clear reason they have a terrible problem with asthma. We would get people in who would carry on deteriating on admission despite nebuliser, steroid and iv infusions of bronchodilators, then wind up intubated. Much worse than I had seen in the UK. Maoris were particularly bad, and had a very high smoking rate. I agree, time for the ban, and something reasonable to copy here.
    I am not a fan of Jacinda Adern but I think this is a great idea. Smoking has no positive effects on society and this is a good way to help prevent people starting in the first place. It is a 50+ year programme to prohibiting smoking completely.
    In the same way that cannabis and cocaine are prohibited entirely? There's no problems with them, are there?

    I don't smoke and don't take illegal drugs, but prohibition is a failure that doesn't work. Chicago showed that with alcohol, the west has shown that with illegal drugs, now why would we possibly think doing the same with tobacco would work this time?

    Smoking would still exist, just tobacco would be vended through drug dealers instead of licensed, regulated and taxed retailers.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Don't we (traditionally) need a 'dark horse' in the Conservatives to bring down the PM so they can then vote someone else who wasn't treacherous in? Who could that be this time? Or has Boris debased himself so badly that the dark horse isn't needed?

    Isn't it traditionally a stalking horse rather than a dark horse?
    Wasn't Sir Anthony Meyer a stalking dark horse ?

    For some reason this is making me think of a nodding donkey.
    It was the traitors who got rid of Maggie despite owing their seats to her who condemned the party to losing 3 out of 4 of the following general elections and it will be the traitors trying to get rid of Boris despite owing their seats to him who will condemn the party to years of opposition too.

    Such treachery will neither be forgiven nor forgotten by me or many others if it succeeds
    I am sure the next PM will be devastated to lose your support. Although, you will of course flip back int line after a day or two.
    It took the party 15 years to recover from the treacherous assassination of Maggie, it would take the party just as long to recover from the treacherous assassination of Boris.

    Look at Labour too, 14 years after it forced Blair out it has still not won a general election since
    Morning all! I'm not going read back over all the overnights but have to pull this gem out:

    It took the party 15 years to recover from the treacherous assassination of Maggie

    Really? So when John Major received the Highest Vote Ever a year and a half later that was proof that the party had collapsed?

    HYUFD can't even get it right when he's talking about his own party.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Will the Nationality and Borders bill quietly pass during the partygate fallout ?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/08/citizenship-politics-nationality-and-border-bill-repatriation-deportation
    … Under the proposals, any foreign-born British citizen can be deprived of their citizenship, without notice or notification. Dual citizenship is not a precondition; they can be made stateless so long as the British government believes they are eligible for citizenship of another country. Analysis from the 2011 census, by the New Statesman, finds an astronomical number of people – 5.5 million in England and Wales – who fall into this category, including about 408,000 people born in the UK.…

    Probably more than that, given Irish ancestry etc. Indeed it may include me because of my eligibility for an Australian passport.
    It is hard to imagine a more flagrantly racist idea emanating from anywhere but a National Front manifesto: it affects half of British Asians and 39% of Black Britons.

    Note that the Guardian can’t simply oppose a policy on the grounds that it’s simply wrong (and it is wrong). They have to oppose it because it’s racist.
    Well, it is a valid point!

    Also worth noting that it allows disenfranchisement of many of the 10 million British citizens currently living abroad, a very high proportion of whom would be eligible for citizenship of their host country.
    I disagree. The government isn’t motivated by racism. They’re motivated by wanting to wash their hands of difficult cases like Begum.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582

    F1: kerbs might be aggressive in Abu Dhabi.

    https://twitter.com/AlbertFabrega/status/1468660602994405385

    They’re similar to the Qatar kerbs, which did indeed shake the cars to bits.

    IMO that’s not a bad thing though, they need to police track limits in a way that carries a sporting penalty, but in a way that doesn’t result in driver injuries like the silly sausage kerbs.

    I’m heading down there later, will see if I can get a look at them.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,348
    edited December 2021

    AlistairM said:

    Foxy said:

    New Zealand is banning young people from ever being allowed to buy cigarettes in a rolling program that aims to make the entire country smoke-free by 2025.

    No-one under the age of 14 will ever be allowed to buy cigarettes in their lifetime in a desperate bid to eradicate smoking from the country.

    Each year the age limit will be increased until it's illegal for the entire nation under NZ Prime Minister Jacinda Adern's radical plan.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10290201/New-Zealand-BANS-smoking-Young-people-NEVER-buy-cigarettes-nation-goes-smoke-free.html

    I worked in a respiratory unit in NZ 30 years ago. For some not entirely clear reason they have a terrible problem with asthma. We would get people in who would carry on deteriating on admission despite nebuliser, steroid and iv infusions of bronchodilators, then wind up intubated. Much worse than I had seen in the UK. Maoris were particularly bad, and had a very high smoking rate. I agree, time for the ban, and something reasonable to copy here.
    I am not a fan of Jacinda Adern but I think this is a great idea. Smoking has no positive effects on society and this is a good way to help prevent people starting in the first place. It is a 50+ year programme to prohibiting smoking completely.
    In the same way that cannabis and cocaine are prohibited entirely? There's no problems with them, are there?

    I don't smoke and don't take illegal drugs, but prohibition is a failure that doesn't work. Chicago showed that with alcohol, the west has shown that with illegal drugs, now why would we possibly think doing the same with tobacco would work this time?

    Smoking would still exist, just tobacco would be vended through drug dealers instead of licensed, regulated and taxed retailers.
    Western societies have been successful at stigmatising people who smoke tobacco, to the point where it's viewed in the same light as public masturbation, while drinking (even to excess) is considered fun, and taking cannabis or cocaine is seen as cool.

    It's all pretty arbitrary. So, this ban might well work, in a narrow sense, but I suspect that it will just cause people to engage in other forms of behaviour that cause harm to one's health.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631
    edited December 2021
    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Will the Nationality and Borders bill quietly pass during the partygate fallout ?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/08/citizenship-politics-nationality-and-border-bill-repatriation-deportation
    … Under the proposals, any foreign-born British citizen can be deprived of their citizenship, without notice or notification. Dual citizenship is not a precondition; they can be made stateless so long as the British government believes they are eligible for citizenship of another country. Analysis from the 2011 census, by the New Statesman, finds an astronomical number of people – 5.5 million in England and Wales – who fall into this category, including about 408,000 people born in the UK.…

    Probably more than that, given Irish ancestry etc. Indeed it may include me because of my eligibility for an Australian passport.
    It is hard to imagine a more flagrantly racist idea emanating from anywhere but a National Front manifesto: it affects half of British Asians and 39% of Black Britons.

    Note that the Guardian can’t simply oppose a policy on the grounds that it’s simply wrong (and it is wrong). They have to oppose it because it’s racist.
    Well, it is a valid point!

    Also worth noting that it allows disenfranchisement of many of the 10 million British citizens currently living abroad, a very high proportion of whom would be eligible for citizenship of their host country.
    I disagree. The government isn’t motivated by racism. They’re motivated by wanting to wash their hands of difficult cases like Begum.
    Yes, but difficult cases make for bad laws. Allowing the Home Secretary to remove citizenship without justification is quite some step to deal with an isolated case.

    Under this law a number of regular posters here could be deprived of their citizenship, on grounds that they might reasonably be considered eligible for another countries citizenship, because of ancestry, residence or marriage.

    Laws will apply under another government as well as this one, and the next government may be even worse.

    Worth noting too that Bangladesh says that Begum is not eligible for citizenship.
  • darkage said:

    Nigelb said:

    Will the Nationality and Borders bill quietly pass during the partygate fallout ?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/08/citizenship-politics-nationality-and-border-bill-repatriation-deportation
    … Under the proposals, any foreign-born British citizen can be deprived of their citizenship, without notice or notification. Dual citizenship is not a precondition; they can be made stateless so long as the British government believes they are eligible for citizenship of another country. Analysis from the 2011 census, by the New Statesman, finds an astronomical number of people – 5.5 million in England and Wales – who fall into this category, including about 408,000 people born in the UK.…

    This is the end of meaningful British citizenship. If you have an Irish grandparent you could be effectively banished to Ireland. Presumably Boris could be made stateless as he is eligible for American citizenship. Large parts of the cabinet could presumably be banished, thinking about it. Many of them have some non-British heritage.

    The sheer magnitude of what is being proposed is incredible. Will someone stand up in Parliament and point out that the legislation could apply to a very large number of MP's and their families? Maybe they need to THINK about the legislation they are passing.

    This is true authoritarianism (as opposed to the benign stuff on covid passes that agitates backbench tory MPs)
    Well well. I did say that the aim of this policy and the voters the Tories are appeasing was to get rid of the darkies and here it is. It isn't just authoritarian, it's openly racist.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    edited December 2021

    F1: kerbs might be aggressive in Abu Dhabi.

    https://twitter.com/AlbertFabrega/status/1468660602994405385

    Is that the new PB nickname for Verstappen?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Will the Nationality and Borders bill quietly pass during the partygate fallout ?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/08/citizenship-politics-nationality-and-border-bill-repatriation-deportation
    … Under the proposals, any foreign-born British citizen can be deprived of their citizenship, without notice or notification. Dual citizenship is not a precondition; they can be made stateless so long as the British government believes they are eligible for citizenship of another country. Analysis from the 2011 census, by the New Statesman, finds an astronomical number of people – 5.5 million in England and Wales – who fall into this category, including about 408,000 people born in the UK.…

    Probably more than that, given Irish ancestry etc. Indeed it may include me because of my eligibility for an Australian passport.
    It is hard to imagine a more flagrantly racist idea emanating from anywhere but a National Front manifesto: it affects half of British Asians and 39% of Black Britons.

    Note that the Guardian can’t simply oppose a policy on the grounds that it’s simply wrong (and it is wrong). They have to oppose it because it’s racist.
    Well, it is a valid point!

    Also worth noting that it allows disenfranchisement of many of the 10 million British citizens currently living abroad, a very high proportion of whom would be eligible for citizenship of their host country.
    Applies to some of my grandchildren. Is it worth complaining to 'my' MO..... one P.Patel?

    And good morning one and all. Son arrived from Thailand yesterday and was impressed with speed and efficiency off the Covid testing process.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,818
    edited December 2021
    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Will the Nationality and Borders bill quietly pass during the partygate fallout ?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/08/citizenship-politics-nationality-and-border-bill-repatriation-deportation
    … Under the proposals, any foreign-born British citizen can be deprived of their citizenship, without notice or notification. Dual citizenship is not a precondition; they can be made stateless so long as the British government believes they are eligible for citizenship of another country. Analysis from the 2011 census, by the New Statesman, finds an astronomical number of people – 5.5 million in England and Wales – who fall into this category, including about 408,000 people born in the UK.…

    Probably more than that, given Irish ancestry etc. Indeed it may include me because of my eligibility for an Australian passport.
    It is hard to imagine a more flagrantly racist idea emanating from anywhere but a National Front manifesto: it affects half of British Asians and 39% of Black Britons.

    Note that the Guardian can’t simply oppose a policy on the grounds that it’s simply wrong (and it is wrong). They have to oppose it because it’s racist.
    Well, it is a valid point!

    Also worth noting that it allows disenfranchisement of many of the 10 million British citizens currently living abroad, a very high proportion of whom would be eligible for citizenship of their host country.
    I disagree. The government isn’t motivated by racism. They’re motivated by wanting to wash their hands of difficult cases like Begum.
    So why not allow the Home Secretary to get rid of citizenship from everyone?

    Perhaps the people unaffected by the proposed change are not so keen on that......strange.
  • Also really bad bowling to bowl 3 no balls prior to missing out on a wicket

    Extremely difficult for a bowler to judge that he is overstepping the crease if he is not being told by the umpires.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839
    This thread is now facing a leadership challenge.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631

    darkage said:

    Nigelb said:

    Will the Nationality and Borders bill quietly pass during the partygate fallout ?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/08/citizenship-politics-nationality-and-border-bill-repatriation-deportation
    … Under the proposals, any foreign-born British citizen can be deprived of their citizenship, without notice or notification. Dual citizenship is not a precondition; they can be made stateless so long as the British government believes they are eligible for citizenship of another country. Analysis from the 2011 census, by the New Statesman, finds an astronomical number of people – 5.5 million in England and Wales – who fall into this category, including about 408,000 people born in the UK.…

    This is the end of meaningful British citizenship. If you have an Irish grandparent you could be effectively banished to Ireland. Presumably Boris could be made stateless as he is eligible for American citizenship. Large parts of the cabinet could presumably be banished, thinking about it. Many of them have some non-British heritage.

    The sheer magnitude of what is being proposed is incredible. Will someone stand up in Parliament and point out that the legislation could apply to a very large number of MP's and their families? Maybe they need to THINK about the legislation they are passing.

    This is true authoritarianism (as opposed to the benign stuff on covid passes that agitates backbench tory MPs)
    Well well. I did say that the aim of this policy and the voters the Tories are appeasing was to get rid of the darkies and here it is. It isn't just authoritarian, it's openly racist.
    While obviously Asian and Black Britons are vulnerable, particularly in view of the history of the Windrush scandal, a lot of white Britons are too. Indeed it would allow nearly all naturalised Britons to have their passports revoked.

    A high percentage of the cabinet too!
  • Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Will the Nationality and Borders bill quietly pass during the partygate fallout ?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/08/citizenship-politics-nationality-and-border-bill-repatriation-deportation
    … Under the proposals, any foreign-born British citizen can be deprived of their citizenship, without notice or notification. Dual citizenship is not a precondition; they can be made stateless so long as the British government believes they are eligible for citizenship of another country. Analysis from the 2011 census, by the New Statesman, finds an astronomical number of people – 5.5 million in England and Wales – who fall into this category, including about 408,000 people born in the UK.…

    Probably more than that, given Irish ancestry etc. Indeed it may include me because of my eligibility for an Australian passport.
    It is hard to imagine a more flagrantly racist idea emanating from anywhere but a National Front manifesto: it affects half of British Asians and 39% of Black Britons.

    Note that the Guardian can’t simply oppose a policy on the grounds that it’s simply wrong (and it is wrong). They have to oppose it because it’s racist.
    Well, it is a valid point!

    Also worth noting that it allows disenfranchisement of many of the 10 million British citizens currently living abroad, a very high proportion of whom would be eligible for citizenship of their host country.
    Applies to some of my grandchildren. Is it worth complaining to 'my' MO..... one P.Patel?

    And good morning one and all. Son arrived from Thailand yesterday and was impressed with speed and efficiency off the Covid testing process.
    No point complaining to Priti Vacant. She is the leading racist of the lot. "I am here, now I'm going to make sure that nobody else like me can also be here. Smirk"
  • Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Will the Nationality and Borders bill quietly pass during the partygate fallout ?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/08/citizenship-politics-nationality-and-border-bill-repatriation-deportation
    … Under the proposals, any foreign-born British citizen can be deprived of their citizenship, without notice or notification. Dual citizenship is not a precondition; they can be made stateless so long as the British government believes they are eligible for citizenship of another country. Analysis from the 2011 census, by the New Statesman, finds an astronomical number of people – 5.5 million in England and Wales – who fall into this category, including about 408,000 people born in the UK.…

    Probably more than that, given Irish ancestry etc. Indeed it may include me because of my eligibility for an Australian passport.
    It is hard to imagine a more flagrantly racist idea emanating from anywhere but a National Front manifesto: it affects half of British Asians and 39% of Black Britons.

    Note that the Guardian can’t simply oppose a policy on the grounds that it’s simply wrong (and it is wrong). They have to oppose it because it’s racist.
    Well, it is a valid point!

    Also worth noting that it allows disenfranchisement of many of the 10 million British citizens currently living abroad, a very high proportion of whom would be eligible for citizenship of their host country.
    I disagree. The government isn’t motivated by racism. They’re motivated by wanting to wash their hands of difficult cases like Begum.
    Yes, but difficult cases make for bad laws. Allowing the Home Secretary to remove citizenship without justification is quite some step to deal with an isolated case.

    Under this law a number of regular posters here could be deprived of their citizenship, on grounds that they might reasonably be considered eligible for another countries citizenship, because of ancestry, residence or marriage.

    Laws will apply under another government as well as this one, and the next government may be even worse.

    Worth noting too that Bangladesh says that Begum is not eligible for citizenship.
    I don't know the details of this law change, dual-citizens (and those eligible) like Begum can already be stripped of their citizenship that's already the law because of Blair.

    So what's new? What's different to the principle that Blair already made the law here?

    Also can someone be stripped of citizenship solely because of eligibility for dual citizenship? Or are there other requirements too, like they're a threat to the country or a terrorist etc?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Will the Nationality and Borders bill quietly pass during the partygate fallout ?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/08/citizenship-politics-nationality-and-border-bill-repatriation-deportation
    … Under the proposals, any foreign-born British citizen can be deprived of their citizenship, without notice or notification. Dual citizenship is not a precondition; they can be made stateless so long as the British government believes they are eligible for citizenship of another country. Analysis from the 2011 census, by the New Statesman, finds an astronomical number of people – 5.5 million in England and Wales – who fall into this category, including about 408,000 people born in the UK.…

    Probably more than that, given Irish ancestry etc. Indeed it may include me because of my eligibility for an Australian passport.
    It is hard to imagine a more flagrantly racist idea emanating from anywhere but a National Front manifesto: it affects half of British Asians and 39% of Black Britons.

    Note that the Guardian can’t simply oppose a policy on the grounds that it’s simply wrong (and it is wrong). They have to oppose it because it’s racist.
    Well, it is a valid point!

    Also worth noting that it allows disenfranchisement of many of the 10 million British citizens currently living abroad, a very high proportion of whom would be eligible for citizenship of their host country.
    I disagree. The government isn’t motivated by racism. They’re motivated by wanting to wash their hands of difficult cases like Begum.
    Yes, but difficult cases make for bad laws. Allowing the Home Secretary to remove citizenship without justification is quite some step to deal with an isolated case.

    Under this law a number of regular posters here could be deprived of their citizenship, on grounds that they might reasonably be considered eligible for another countries citizenship, because of ancestry, residence or marriage.

    Laws will apply under another government as well as this one, and the next government may be even worse.

    Worth noting too that Bangladesh says that Begum is not eligible for citizenship.
    I don't know the details of this law change, dual-citizens (and those eligible) like Begum can already be stripped of their citizenship that's already the law because of Blair.

    So what's new? What's different to the principle that Blair already made the law here?

    Also can someone be stripped of citizenship solely because of eligibility for dual citizenship? Or are there other requirements too, like they're a threat to the country or a terrorist etc?
    Bangladesh says Begum has no rights to their citizenship:

    https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/shamima-begum-uk-bangladesh-ban-entry-british-citizenship-appeal
  • Thinking back on Boris-gate, the problem for the eternal optimists is that this isn't going away. We have had the same story now for about a month - a bunch of sleazy liars openly pocketing your cash whilst thinking they're above the law. No matter how they try and dodge or distract the story comes back with fresh outrages.

    Which is why we can say with high levels of confidence that there will be more damaging revelations. The pattern is drop a bomb, fan the flames, let the outrage simmer, drop the next bomb. Because the PM is such a likeable trustworthy collegiate fellow he has made a whole stack of enemies who are now happy to keep burning the supports out underneath him.

    I'm not sure how this ends yet. It would take something utterly outrageous for Johnson to have to resign and the Good News for fans of comedy is there are several things that could do it. There remains the stench over donations to pay for Carrie's his flat refurb, the stench over public money to his mistress, the stench of mysterious awards of vast contracts to inexperienced tiny companies who just so happen to be Tories etc etc etc.

    Even if one of them doesn't finish him off, the bang bang bang of all these bombs going off must do eventually, especially now that all the populist stuff is gone and instead its cancel Christmas and here's your fuck off huge tax rise.
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