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Reassuring CON voters 3 days before the Bexley by-election – politicalbetting.com

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730

    Nigelb said:

    If TSE is still wanting recommendations for places to eat in Oxford then I can suggest The Turf (good luck finding it though), The Kings Arms, and (non pub) the Nosebag.

    I am, thank you.
    If you like hearty food, the Magdalen Arms on the Iffley Road is very good.
    (Though nb post pandemic, I'd check that all these places are still fully operating.)

    I'd avoid Folly Bridge personally, as it's tourist central, particularly in the summer.
    Ta, I think I'll definitely be going to the Folly Bridge, they have private domes by the river side and the other half loves that kind of stuff.
    Fair enough.
    You could also put together a hamper in the covered market, and lunch on a punt.
    Though not from anywhere near there, as the river is a bit deep for easy navigation.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,944
    MaxPB said:

    AlistairM said:

    44.9K cases. Up about 5K on last week.

    Hospitalisations still coming down and deaths also but only slightly.

    Digging in a bit the PCR positive number is basically static WoW now, the growth is all in LFTs which may be a function of more testing or an increase in kids testing positive at schools. Either way I'm quite pleased that the PCR rate has stabilised already, it should begin falling soon.
    Running the numbers now - the age profile for cases will be the interesting bit.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    ...
    Cyclefree said:

    isam said:

    Cyclefree said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Don't you think he looks tired?

    Fpt



    Its the kids. Boris strikes me as the kind of selfish but charismatic chancer who has always managed to dodge most paternal duties - I don’t mean simply ignoring bastard offspring but always having something more important to do just as the wife needs help with nappies

    But this time he can’t dodge. Carrie looks pretty assertive. He’s in the public spotlight. He’s stuck at Number 10. All = a lack of sleep which is ageing him by a decade in a year
    I’m doing it right now, hope you’re wrong
    I was the child of a man in his fifties. We were never a disruption. Or made to feel like one, more accurately. My father gloried in and loved family life and us.

    The only downside is the risk of losing a parent too early. But even the short time I had with my father has sustained me for the rest of my life. So much of what I've learnt and tried to do was from him.

    So just love your kids and don't worry about your age. You'll be fine.
    I don’t worry about it really, day to day life I love it. Just when I think of how old I will be when they leave school, or that I will be the oldest Dad at Sports Day etc, (I was 44 and 46 when they were born) I hope they aren't embarrassed. If I am feeling inclined to be downbeat, I get angry with myself for not having started earlier as it means I will have less time with them. But if you had said to me when I was 43 with no girlfriend that at 46 I'd be a father of two I would have bit your hand off
    My father's hair was white. He was blond in photos with us as small children but don't remember that. He was regularly mistaken for my grandfather. But I was never embarrassed by it. Just took it as normal. Children do.

    He was ill by the time I left school and never got to see me graduate or indeed do anything other than win a few school and drama prizes and be a tiresome teenager. It is I who feel guilty and regretful at that. Even now so many years later I would give my right arm to have him with me again - even for 5 minutes - for him to be able to see that I turned out OK, to be able to say that I love him, to thank him.

    Just treasure your time together and create happy memories for them.
    Thanks, I’ll try my best
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 17,823
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Am I the only one on here here nether went to boarding school nor is on an opinion pollster's speed dial?

    You're the only one here who seems to think "Starmer is crap" is an opinion worth sharing
    Just had a million pounds on Red Rum to win the 1973 Grand National with a mate!

    Ker-ching!!
    Considering Horse has opened up on here about trying to overcome his mental health issues, I find your regular digs at him somewhat counter productive, perhaps verging on bullying.
    I have worked in betting almost my entire working life, and whenever someone talks of a bet they have had, the first thing anyone does is to ask which bookie they had it with - Never had someone refused to say until this episode, which is just incredibly bizarre.

    OGH himself refused to believe me when I said I had backed UKIP to win Thurrock at the 2015 GE, £100 at 16/1 or something) and I had to post the betting slip on here to prove it. I didn't notice anyone sticking up for me then
    And you are like a dog with a bone over the issue. Let it rest, particularly under the circumstances mentioned.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 24,543
    The Govt amendment on social care, due to be voted on at 10pm, makes a significant change to how the cost cap works.

    It potentially disadvantages the less well off and those of working age with life long conditions.

    I will be voting against it.

    Here’s why👇 🧵 (1/3)

    https://twitter.com/Mark_J_Harper/status/1462816525639995392
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Am I the only one on here here nether went to boarding school nor is on an opinion pollster's speed dial?

    You're the only one here who seems to think "Starmer is crap" is an opinion worth sharing
    Just had a million pounds on Red Rum to win the 1973 Grand National with a mate!

    Ker-ching!!
    Considering Horse has opened up on here about trying to overcome his mental health issues, I find your regular digs at him somewhat counter productive, perhaps verging on bullying.
    I have worked in betting almost my entire working life, and whenever someone talks of a bet they have had, the first thing anyone does is to ask which bookie they had it with - Never had someone refused to say until this episode, which is just incredibly bizarre.

    OGH himself refused to believe me when I said I had backed UKIP to win Thurrock at the 2015 GE, £100 at 16/1 or something) and I had to post the betting slip on here to prove it. I didn't notice anyone sticking up for me then
    And you are like a dog with a bone over the issue. Let it rest, particularly under the circumstances mentioned.
    I only reacted to provocation, as you will see if you read the thread.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 2,512
    edited November 2021
    IshmaelZ said:

    AlistairM said:

    If TSE is still wanting recommendations for places to eat in Oxford then I can suggest The Turf (good luck finding it though), The Kings Arms, and (non pub) the Nosebag.

    The Turf is quintessentially Oxford but if you go at a busy time be prepared to sharpen your elbows to get a table. No idea how they get deliveries to it as it is tucked away down down an alley (St. Helen's Passage) and not where it is shown on Google Maps. If out late at night The Varsity Club has a rooftop terrace with stunning views over the city.
    Hell Passage, St. Helen's Passage is a gentrification
    Not as big a gentrification as Magpie Lane (between Univ and Oriel) though...
    MaxPB said:

    AlistairM said:

    44.9K cases. Up about 5K on last week.

    Hospitalisations still coming down and deaths also but only slightly.

    Digging in a bit the PCR positive number is basically static WoW now, the growth is all in LFTs which may be a function of more testing or an increase in kids testing positive at schools. Either way I'm quite pleased that the PCR rate has stabilised already, it should begin falling soon.
    Today's numbers were a slight disappointment but definitely aren't setting off any alarm bells.

    This week should be a good test of whether the dry air in winter will make much of a difference.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 24,543
    Sure this is the clip they wanted...

    "You lost your notes, you lost your place, you went off on a tangent about Peppa Pig, is everything OK?"

    "I think people got the vast majority of the points," says PM Boris Johnson following his speech to the CBI, adding, "I thought it went over well"


    https://bbc.in/3oU2wtd https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1462818751921938437/video/1
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,445
    Am back at 55°N.
    Completely dark at 4:15. I know it is the same every year, but it never ceases to surprise.
  • "Is Everything OK?" with the implied answer being, "No it ruddy well isn't!" might end up being the epitaph for the Johnson Ministry, but I still doubt that this is really changing people's minds.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 31,225
    isam said:

    Cyclefree said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Don't you think he looks tired?

    Fpt



    Its the kids. Boris strikes me as the kind of selfish but charismatic chancer who has always managed to dodge most paternal duties - I don’t mean simply ignoring bastard offspring but always having something more important to do just as the wife needs help with nappies

    But this time he can’t dodge. Carrie looks pretty assertive. He’s in the public spotlight. He’s stuck at Number 10. All = a lack of sleep which is ageing him by a decade in a year
    I’m doing it right now, hope you’re wrong
    I was the child of a man in his fifties. We were never a disruption. Or made to feel like one, more accurately. My father gloried in and loved family life and us.

    The only downside is the risk of losing a parent too early. But even the short time I had with my father has sustained me for the rest of my life. So much of what I've learnt and tried to do was from him.

    So just love your kids and don't worry about your age. You'll be fine.
    I don’t worry about it really, day to day life I love it. Just when I think of how old I will be when they leave school, or that I will be the oldest Dad at Sports Day etc, (I was 44 and 46 when they were born) I hope they aren't embarrassed. If I am feeling inclined to be downbeat, I get angry with myself for not having started earlier as it means I will have less time with them. But if you had said to me when I was 43 with no girlfriend that at 46 I'd be a father of two I would have bit your hand off
    BTW, I don't think I've congratulated you on your new arrival: so congratulations; hope you get some sleep. ;)

    A good friend of ours was fifty when he and his wife had their first kid - and he's a brilliant stay-at-home dad. I was 41. Another dad at the little 'uns school is late-fifties, with a seven-year old, a teenager, and one in his twenties.

    The way I see it, there is no ideal age to have a kid. If I'd had one in my teens, I was too immature. In my twenties, I still had medical problems and was starting on a career. In my thirties, I was working and enjoying myself.

    Having a kid later in life means that I am much more financially secure than I was when I was younger, I'm more mature, and more stable. I don't begrudge the fact I don't go out as much as I used to, because I went out a lot when I was younger. The bad side is that the lack of sleep affects me more than it did when I was younger, and parts of my body are more worn. But all in all, I think 41 was the ideal age for me to become a father. Others may obviously differ.
  • Forget cases.


    Oliver Johnson
    @BristOliver
    ·
    23m
    But meanwhile the great decoupling continues, with average admissions down under 700 and continuing to trend in the right direction despite recent case increases. #GetBoosted
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,466
    The Republican nominee market is interesting. A spike on Donald Trump, followed by a gradual dribbling away of the implied chance, then repeated, then repeated again. Like a saw blade. Perhaps two groups of people betting? One group lumping on him each time there's a poll, and another group gnawing away constantly at what they see as value.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    edited November 2021

    isam said:

    Cyclefree said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Don't you think he looks tired?

    Fpt



    Its the kids. Boris strikes me as the kind of selfish but charismatic chancer who has always managed to dodge most paternal duties - I don’t mean simply ignoring bastard offspring but always having something more important to do just as the wife needs help with nappies

    But this time he can’t dodge. Carrie looks pretty assertive. He’s in the public spotlight. He’s stuck at Number 10. All = a lack of sleep which is ageing him by a decade in a year
    I’m doing it right now, hope you’re wrong
    I was the child of a man in his fifties. We were never a disruption. Or made to feel like one, more accurately. My father gloried in and loved family life and us.

    The only downside is the risk of losing a parent too early. But even the short time I had with my father has sustained me for the rest of my life. So much of what I've learnt and tried to do was from him.

    So just love your kids and don't worry about your age. You'll be fine.
    I don’t worry about it really, day to day life I love it. Just when I think of how old I will be when they leave school, or that I will be the oldest Dad at Sports Day etc, (I was 44 and 46 when they were born) I hope they aren't embarrassed. If I am feeling inclined to be downbeat, I get angry with myself for not having started earlier as it means I will have less time with them. But if you had said to me when I was 43 with no girlfriend that at 46 I'd be a father of two I would have bit your hand off
    BTW, I don't think I've congratulated you on your new arrival: so congratulations; hope you get some sleep. ;)

    A good friend of ours was fifty when he and his wife had their first kid - and he's a brilliant stay-at-home dad. I was 41. Another dad at the little 'uns school is late-fifties, with a seven-year old, a teenager, and one in his twenties.

    The way I see it, there is no ideal age to have a kid. If I'd had one in my teens, I was too immature. In my twenties, I still had medical problems and was starting on a career. In my thirties, I was working and enjoying myself.

    Having a kid later in life means that I am much more financially secure than I was when I was younger, I'm more mature, and more stable. I don't begrudge the fact I don't go out as much as I used to, because I went out a lot when I was younger. The bad side is that the lack of sleep affects me more than it did when I was younger, and parts of my body are more worn. But all in all, I think 41 was the ideal age for me to become a father. Others may obviously differ.
    Thanks

    I agree there is a big upside in not wanting to go out much now, even if I could. I spent most of my 20s and 30s out on the piss to be honest, I don’t think I’d ever want to have more than 4 drinks in a night again. Everyone’s got a cold at the moment so there not much sleep going on and a lot of crying.

    As for the kids…
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 25,994
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    If TSE is still wanting recommendations for places to eat in Oxford then I can suggest The Turf (good luck finding it though), The Kings Arms, and (non pub) the Nosebag.

    I am, thank you.
    If you like hearty food, the Magdalen Arms on the Iffley Road is very good.
    (Though nb post pandemic, I'd check that all these places are still fully operating.)

    I'd avoid Folly Bridge personally, as it's tourist central, particularly in the summer.
    Ta, I think I'll definitely be going to the Folly Bridge, they have private domes by the river side and the other half loves that kind of stuff.
    Fair enough.
    You could also put together a hamper in the covered market, and lunch on a punt.
    Though not from anywhere near there, as the river is a bit deep for easy navigation.
    Punting is much safer on the Cherwell - University Parks to Wolfson College sector for instance (had a friend there).
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 1,729
    Scott_xP said:

    Sure this is the clip they wanted...

    "You lost your notes, you lost your place, you went off on a tangent about Peppa Pig, is everything OK?"

    "I think people got the vast majority of the points," says PM Boris Johnson following his speech to the CBI, adding, "I thought it went over well"


    https://bbc.in/3oU2wtd https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1462818751921938437/video/1

    Probably just me, but I don't think Peppa Pig does Boris any harm at all. He's the one and only politician capable of raising a smile with a weary electorate and that is a very great political asset. Has its downsides, of course, (lack of seriousness, etc) but as he made the big right calls on Covid he seems pretty bomb-proof whatever happens in the by-elections or polls. He'll storm the election. (Famous last words).
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,804
    "The Independent
    @Independent
    Suspect in Wisconsin Christmas parade attack identified as Darrell Brooks"

    https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1462802693848764421
  • dixiedean said:

    Am back at 55°N.
    Completely dark at 4:15. I know it is the same every year, but it never ceases to surprise.

    Only 55°N? Bloody southerners.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 725
    edited November 2021

    Forget cases.


    Oliver Johnson
    @BristOliver
    ·
    23m
    But meanwhile the great decoupling continues, with average admissions down under 700 and continuing to trend in the right direction despite recent case increases. #GetBoosted

    Meanwhile, in several home offices all over the UK, iSAGE are screaming "But long Covid in kids!!!!!" into their Zoom meeting.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,595
    UK R for 17/11 vs 10/11 by sample date is around 1.03 (5.5% wow increase), a smidge down on the 1.04 from yesterday and no strong indicators of movement in the more recent partial days. If we can keep R around here as the weather chills again, and keep the decoupling of hospitals and deaths going, we might be good. Boosters have now come together well.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,466
    dixiedean said:

    Am back at 55°N.
    Completely dark at 4:15. I know it is the same every year, but it never ceases to surprise.

    Bloody southerners.
    I went for a walk at midday a few days ago, and the horizon was orange like a sunset. At midday.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,457
    From Today Covid numbers:

    Thinking about todays rise in COVID Cases, (and fall in hospitalisations) I thought I would have a look at how the increase is affecting different age groups, below are the day on day changes to the 7 day average, reputed form England, (UK wide numbers not available) Numbers are cases per 100,000 people 7 day average.

    0-4: up 3.9
    5-9: up 26.3
    10-14: up 33.0
    15-19: Flat
    20-24: up 1.2
    25-29: up 0.6
    30-34: up 3.8
    35-39: up 6.2
    40-44: up 7.2
    45-49: up 6.8
    50-54: up 2.0
    55-59: Down 1.4
    60-64: Down 5.2
    65-69: Down 7.6
    70-74: Down 6.8
    75-79: Down 3.5
    80-84: Down 1.6
    85-98: Down 2.9
    90+ : Down 6.1

    My interpretation, The engine of transition in in schools and mostly primary and midtale schools, some of the increase in kids with COVID is being transmitted to their parents, but not a lot, and its not really seeping out much being that, while the booster campaign is meaning that the older age groups are actually falling, all be it slowly.

    This rather fits with MaxPBs' observation that, the increase is coming from Lateral Flow tests not PCR tests.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,466

    dixiedean said:

    Am back at 55°N.
    Completely dark at 4:15. I know it is the same every year, but it never ceases to surprise.

    Only 55°N? Bloody southerners.
    Farooq said:

    dixiedean said:

    Am back at 55°N.
    Completely dark at 4:15. I know it is the same every year, but it never ceases to surprise.

    Bloody southerners.
    I went for a walk at midday a few days ago, and the horizon was orange like a sunset. At midday.
    gazumped
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,804
    HYUFD said:

    Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).

    The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.

    The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat

    Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 24,543
    It's not often I recommend reading the 2019 Conservative Manifesto, but for MP's voting tonight who were elected on it; "Nobody needing care should be forced to sell their home to pay for it." https://twitter.com/JimfromOldham/status/1462697873947115521/photo/1
  • RH1992 said:

    Forget cases.


    Oliver Johnson
    @BristOliver
    ·
    23m
    But meanwhile the great decoupling continues, with average admissions down under 700 and continuing to trend in the right direction despite recent case increases. #GetBoosted

    Meanwhile, in several home offices all over the UK, iSAGE are screaming "But long Covid in kids!!!!!" into their Zoom meeting.
    We have R4 news on occasionally and the Guardian is our main news website. On the phone to her mother yesterday evening my wife was saying that the UK was on the verge of introducing more restrictions.

    That, at least, is the impression she has, but the SNP vaccine ID cards aside, I don't have that sense of it being imminent at all.

    The doom is being successfully mongered for many.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,738
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).

    The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.

    The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat

    Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
    No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 2,512
    edited November 2021
    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    If TSE is still wanting recommendations for places to eat in Oxford then I can suggest The Turf (good luck finding it though), The Kings Arms, and (non pub) the Nosebag.

    I am, thank you.
    If you like hearty food, the Magdalen Arms on the Iffley Road is very good.
    (Though nb post pandemic, I'd check that all these places are still fully operating.)

    I'd avoid Folly Bridge personally, as it's tourist central, particularly in the summer.
    Ta, I think I'll definitely be going to the Folly Bridge, they have private domes by the river side and the other half loves that kind of stuff.
    Fair enough.
    You could also put together a hamper in the covered market, and lunch on a punt.
    Though not from anywhere near there, as the river is a bit deep for easy navigation.
    Punting is much safer on the Cherwell - University Parks to Wolfson College sector for instance (had a friend there).
    It isn't a lot of fun in winter though, even when it has been dry. Wet suit gloves probably advised. Definitely a summer activity.

    Agreed that Cherwell Boathouse to the Vicky Arms or down to the Parks is the best venue. Fewer muppets that can't steer straight on that section, too.

    PS Use the correct end of the boat. You store the drinks at the front - you don't stand on it...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    If TSE is still wanting recommendations for places to eat in Oxford then I can suggest The Turf (good luck finding it though), The Kings Arms, and (non pub) the Nosebag.

    I am, thank you.
    If you like hearty food, the Magdalen Arms on the Iffley Road is very good.
    (Though nb post pandemic, I'd check that all these places are still fully operating.)

    I'd avoid Folly Bridge personally, as it's tourist central, particularly in the summer.
    Ta, I think I'll definitely be going to the Folly Bridge, they have private domes by the river side and the other half loves that kind of stuff.
    Fair enough.
    You could also put together a hamper in the covered market....
    Not one, but two pie shops, good cheese place, greengrocer, booze, and a deli.
    And a couple of minutes' walk from the Randolph.

    In the opposite direction is Little Clarendon St, where there's a Gail's Bakery, and several cafes.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,466
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).

    The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.

    The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat

    Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
    No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour
    How many people did you speak to?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730
    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    If TSE is still wanting recommendations for places to eat in Oxford then I can suggest The Turf (good luck finding it though), The Kings Arms, and (non pub) the Nosebag.

    I am, thank you.
    If you like hearty food, the Magdalen Arms on the Iffley Road is very good.
    (Though nb post pandemic, I'd check that all these places are still fully operating.)

    I'd avoid Folly Bridge personally, as it's tourist central, particularly in the summer.
    Ta, I think I'll definitely be going to the Folly Bridge, they have private domes by the river side and the other half loves that kind of stuff.
    Fair enough.
    You could also put together a hamper in the covered market, and lunch on a punt.
    Though not from anywhere near there, as the river is a bit deep for easy navigation.
    Punting is much safer on the Cherwell - University Parks to Wolfson College sector for instance (had a friend there).
    Indeed - or set off from the Cherwell Boathouse, where you can also eat.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,520
    murali_s said:

    Re: Boarding school. I was sent to be a boarder at the age of nine, primarily because my parents wanted the best education for me. The only way my father could finance it was to take a job with the ODA (now DfiD) in Africa. Therefore, I had to board. The immigrant mentality that education was everything was the driver for this.

    I hated it, It was horrible. I was close to my parents especially Mum at the age of nine (most kids are), so being away from them was emotionally tough for me. I was the youngest and the only BAME so inevitably I was bullied and made to feel miserable. It got better as the years progressed (I reverted to day school at 13). I didn’t want to complain to my parents because they were surely giving me a privileged education so I dutifully sucked it up. I may have an excellent academic record, a good job, a nice house, experienced the expat lifestyle when on holiday and some loyal life long friends but you know what? I would trade all those things in for me to be with my parents between the ages of 9 and 13.

    The road to hell is paved with good intentions as they say!

    For once I agree with @Leon and @Sean_F. They are 100% spot on here.

    I can't relate at all, I went to a comp just around the corner from where we lived, but my wife was sent to boarding school at age 11. Not only that, the school was in Sussex, her parental home in Borneo. Hard to get your mind around really. An 11 year old girl despatched all alone by her parents to live on the other side of the world. Her first year was absolutely grim. Bullied horribly. Homesick. Miserable beyond words. Worst period of her life. However she came through it and eventually settled in, made friends, and from 13 to 18 she loved it, says they were the best years of her life (and that includes her time married to Hampstead's most eligible). She is also now, in adulthood, an empathetic and resilient person. Course she might have been anyway, loath to draw that sort of conclusion, and girls' schools and girls are different to boys' schools and boys. Moral of the story is, I'd imagine that boarding schools can be good for some kids whilst being bad for (probably) most. But in any case they're all fee-paying, aren't they, so in my 'world king' future they don't exist.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,738
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).

    The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.

    The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat

    Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
    No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour
    How many people did you speak to?
    Quite a number in an over 2 hours canvass
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 25,994

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    If TSE is still wanting recommendations for places to eat in Oxford then I can suggest The Turf (good luck finding it though), The Kings Arms, and (non pub) the Nosebag.

    I am, thank you.
    If you like hearty food, the Magdalen Arms on the Iffley Road is very good.
    (Though nb post pandemic, I'd check that all these places are still fully operating.)

    I'd avoid Folly Bridge personally, as it's tourist central, particularly in the summer.
    Ta, I think I'll definitely be going to the Folly Bridge, they have private domes by the river side and the other half loves that kind of stuff.
    Fair enough.
    You could also put together a hamper in the covered market, and lunch on a punt.
    Though not from anywhere near there, as the river is a bit deep for easy navigation.
    Punting is much safer on the Cherwell - University Parks to Wolfson College sector for instance (had a friend there).
    It isn't a lot of fun in winter though, even when it has been dry. Wet suit gloves probably advised. Definitely a summer activity.

    Agreed that Cherwell Boathouse to the Vicky Arms or down to the Parks is the best venue. Fewer muppets that can't steer straight on that section, too.

    PS Use the correct end of the boat. You store the drinks at the front - you don't stand on it...
    Couldn't rtemember the pub's name, thanks! As for the time of year, I agree re winter, esp. as the less skilled can and do fall in. But AIUI TSE is going next summer.

    I was told that they do things stern about bows at Fenland Technical, so the warning is also useful.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 725
    edited November 2021

    RH1992 said:

    Forget cases.


    Oliver Johnson
    @BristOliver
    ·
    23m
    But meanwhile the great decoupling continues, with average admissions down under 700 and continuing to trend in the right direction despite recent case increases. #GetBoosted

    Meanwhile, in several home offices all over the UK, iSAGE are screaming "But long Covid in kids!!!!!" into their Zoom meeting.
    We have R4 news on occasionally and the Guardian is our main news website. On the phone to her mother yesterday evening my wife was saying that the UK was on the verge of introducing more restrictions.

    That, at least, is the impression she has, but the SNP vaccine ID cards aside, I don't have that sense of it being imminent at all.

    The doom is being successfully mongered for many.
    I agree. The irony is that certain media outlets and pressure groups that are buttering up the public for restrictions could end up indirectly giving the Tories a poll boost if as I expect no restrictions come along.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,466
    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).

    The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.

    The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat

    Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
    No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour
    How many people did you speak to?
    Quite a number in an over 2 hours canvass
    So perhaps 20 people?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,944

    RH1992 said:

    Forget cases.


    Oliver Johnson
    @BristOliver
    ·
    23m
    But meanwhile the great decoupling continues, with average admissions down under 700 and continuing to trend in the right direction despite recent case increases. #GetBoosted

    Meanwhile, in several home offices all over the UK, iSAGE are screaming "But long Covid in kids!!!!!" into their Zoom meeting.
    We have R4 news on occasionally and the Guardian is our main news website. On the phone to her mother yesterday evening my wife was saying that the UK was on the verge of introducing more restrictions.

    That, at least, is the impression she has, but the SNP vaccine ID cards aside, I don't have that sense of it being imminent at all.

    The doom is being successfully mongered for many.
    You should ask Professor Peston, FRS, DipSHit
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 25,994
    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    If TSE is still wanting recommendations for places to eat in Oxford then I can suggest The Turf (good luck finding it though), The Kings Arms, and (non pub) the Nosebag.

    I am, thank you.
    If you like hearty food, the Magdalen Arms on the Iffley Road is very good.
    (Though nb post pandemic, I'd check that all these places are still fully operating.)

    I'd avoid Folly Bridge personally, as it's tourist central, particularly in the summer.
    Ta, I think I'll definitely be going to the Folly Bridge, they have private domes by the river side and the other half loves that kind of stuff.
    Fair enough.
    You could also put together a hamper in the covered market, and lunch on a punt.
    Though not from anywhere near there, as the river is a bit deep for easy navigation.
    Punting is much safer on the Cherwell - University Parks to Wolfson College sector for instance (had a friend there).
    Indeed - or set off from the Cherwell Boathouse, where you can also eat.
    That's it - where the puints were rented out, thanks. Memory jogged.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,056
    edited November 2021

    Farooq said:

    Photo op with with Trump on the cards?


    Now he's a celebrity and probably going to get very rich off of his fame.

    'Murican dream.
    "I murdered some libtards and now I get to fly across the country to eat ribs"

    "Mama, just killed a man
    Put a gun against his head
    Pulled my trigger, now he's dead"
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 25,994

    dixiedean said:

    Am back at 55°N.
    Completely dark at 4:15. I know it is the same every year, but it never ceases to surprise.

    Only 55°N? Bloody southerners.
    I try, and fail, to imagine what life in Shetland is like (and I have a good friend from there).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,239
    Scott_xP said:

    It's not often I recommend reading the 2019 Conservative Manifesto, but for MP's voting tonight who were elected on it; "Nobody needing care should be forced to sell their home to pay for it." https://twitter.com/JimfromOldham/status/1462697873947115521/photo/1

    The remarkable thing is that anyone places any value at all on the word of the clown any more? Even HY has sufficient shame to have given up quoting excerpts from the Tory manifesto at us, FFS.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,961
    isam said:

    ...

    Cyclefree said:

    isam said:

    Cyclefree said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Don't you think he looks tired?

    Fpt



    Its the kids. Boris strikes me as the kind of selfish but charismatic chancer who has always managed to dodge most paternal duties - I don’t mean simply ignoring bastard offspring but always having something more important to do just as the wife needs help with nappies

    But this time he can’t dodge. Carrie looks pretty assertive. He’s in the public spotlight. He’s stuck at Number 10. All = a lack of sleep which is ageing him by a decade in a year
    I’m doing it right now, hope you’re wrong
    I was the child of a man in his fifties. We were never a disruption. Or made to feel like one, more accurately. My father gloried in and loved family life and us.

    The only downside is the risk of losing a parent too early. But even the short time I had with my father has sustained me for the rest of my life. So much of what I've learnt and tried to do was from him.

    So just love your kids and don't worry about your age. You'll be fine.
    I don’t worry about it really, day to day life I love it. Just when I think of how old I will be when they leave school, or that I will be the oldest Dad at Sports Day etc, (I was 44 and 46 when they were born) I hope they aren't embarrassed. If I am feeling inclined to be downbeat, I get angry with myself for not having started earlier as it means I will have less time with them. But if you had said to me when I was 43 with no girlfriend that at 46 I'd be a father of two I would have bit your hand off
    My father's hair was white. He was blond in photos with us as small children but don't remember that. He was regularly mistaken for my grandfather. But I was never embarrassed by it. Just took it as normal. Children do.

    He was ill by the time I left school and never got to see me graduate or indeed do anything other than win a few school and drama prizes and be a tiresome teenager. It is I who feel guilty and regretful at that. Even now so many years later I would give my right arm to have him with me again - even for 5 minutes - for him to be able to see that I turned out OK, to be able to say that I love him, to thank him.

    Just treasure your time together and create happy memories for them.
    Thanks, I’ll try my best
    Don't worry about it @isam. My eldest son didn't become a father until he was over 40. He doesn't have any more problems, so far as I can see, than I had; he, our eldest child, was born when I was 25.
    What he did/does have, is more money to spend on his children, since he's a lot further on in his career.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).

    The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.

    The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat

    Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
    No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour
    How many people did you speak to?
    Quite a number in an over 2 hours canvass
    So perhaps 20 people?
    ‘PB Tory anecdote vs data’ incoming
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,400
    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).

    The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.

    The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat

    Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
    No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour
    How many people did you speak to?
    Quite a number in an over 2 hours canvass
    Did you find any switchers or any would not say but you had down as previously Lab or Conservative?

    Do you know how the area you canvassed normally votes?
  • Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    Am back at 55°N.
    Completely dark at 4:15. I know it is the same every year, but it never ceases to surprise.

    Only 55°N? Bloody southerners.
    I try, and fail, to imagine what life in Shetland is like (and I have a good friend from there).
    Oooh thats considerably further north. Never been, but appears to be relatively flat and treeless. Epic Viking festival in January that I must get to one year.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,944
    UK cases by specimen date

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,944
    UK cases by specimen date and scale to 100K

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  • eekeek Posts: 20,666
    Scott_xP said:

    It's not often I recommend reading the 2019 Conservative Manifesto, but for MP's voting tonight who were elected on it; "Nobody needing care should be forced to sell their home to pay for it." https://twitter.com/JimfromOldham/status/1462697873947115521/photo/1

    Given everything else in the manifesto that's been binned - I don't think it's a big issue.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,944
    UK Local R

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,944
    Case summary

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  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,180
    kinabalu said:

    murali_s said:

    Re: Boarding school. I was sent to be a boarder at the age of nine, primarily because my parents wanted the best education for me. The only way my father could finance it was to take a job with the ODA (now DfiD) in Africa. Therefore, I had to board. The immigrant mentality that education was everything was the driver for this.

    I hated it, It was horrible. I was close to my parents especially Mum at the age of nine (most kids are), so being away from them was emotionally tough for me. I was the youngest and the only BAME so inevitably I was bullied and made to feel miserable. It got better as the years progressed (I reverted to day school at 13). I didn’t want to complain to my parents because they were surely giving me a privileged education so I dutifully sucked it up. I may have an excellent academic record, a good job, a nice house, experienced the expat lifestyle when on holiday and some loyal life long friends but you know what? I would trade all those things in for me to be with my parents between the ages of 9 and 13.

    The road to hell is paved with good intentions as they say!

    For once I agree with @Leon and @Sean_F. They are 100% spot on here.

    I can't relate at all, I went to a comp just around the corner from where we lived, but my wife was sent to boarding school at age 11. Not only that, the school was in Sussex, her parental home in Borneo. Hard to get your mind around really. An 11 year old girl despatched all alone by her parents to live on the other side of the world. Her first year was absolutely grim. Bullied horribly. Homesick. Miserable beyond words. Worst period of her life. However she came through it and eventually settled in, made friends, and from 13 to 18 she loved it, says they were the best years of her life (and that includes her time married to Hampstead's most eligible). She is also now, in adulthood, an empathetic and resilient person. Course she might have been anyway, loath to draw that sort of conclusion, and girls' schools and girls are different to boys' schools and boys. Moral of the story is, I'd imagine that boarding schools can be good for some kids whilst being bad for (probably) most. But in any case they're all fee-paying, aren't they, so in my 'world king' future they don't exist.
    When I ponder my schooling I do think that it may have had two very strong influences on me. Firstly it was all-male. I simply didn't have any female friends from say 11-17. So I'm not married, nor been close, and have no children - and I'd have liked to have had children. Secondly and prehaps as a result I did pretty well academicaly and haven't done so bad in life overall, whereas given my background I should have had little hope of doing so. I don't know if I'd change things on the scales.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,944
    UK hospitals

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,944
    UK deaths

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  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,520
    Leon said:

    isam said:

    Cyclefree said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Don't you think he looks tired?

    Fpt



    Its the kids. Boris strikes me as the kind of selfish but charismatic chancer who has always managed to dodge most paternal duties - I don’t mean simply ignoring bastard offspring but always having something more important to do just as the wife needs help with nappies

    But this time he can’t dodge. Carrie looks pretty assertive. He’s in the public spotlight. He’s stuck at Number 10. All = a lack of sleep which is ageing him by a decade in a year
    I’m doing it right now, hope you’re wrong
    I was the child of a man in his fifties. We were never a disruption. Or made to feel like one, more accurately. My father gloried in and loved family life and us.

    The only downside is the risk of losing a parent too early. But even the short time I had with my father has sustained me for the rest of my life. So much of what I've learnt and tried to do was from him.

    So just love your kids and don't worry about your age. You'll be fine.
    I don’t worry about it really, day to day life I love it. Just when I think of how old I will be when they leave school, or that I will be the oldest Dad at Sports Day etc, (I was 44 and 46 when they were born) I hope they aren't embarrassed. If I am feeling inclined to be downbeat, I get angry with myself for not having started earlier as it means I will have less time with them. But if you had said to me when I was 43 with no girlfriend that at 46 I'd be a father of two I would have bit your hand off
    That's the age I had my kids. Mid 40s. I too wish I'd done it earlier, and I have been far from the perfect father, I also get angry with myself for my mistakes

    But do I regret being a Dad? No, it has been the most profoundly enriching experience of my life and my daughters are both healthy and, I think, reasonable happy, with much to look forward to (and troubles as well, of course, but that's life)

    I'd probably be dead by now, from booze and purposelessness, if I hadn't had kids. They forced me to knuckle down and PROVIDE. I shall be sad when they fledge entirely
    Opposite with me. Became a father in my 20s and not a good one. Left and then just did the easy stuff - weekends and holidays. Very grateful to my son that he doesn't hold it against me, that in adulthood he likes me and I seem to be important to him.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 25,994
    edited November 2021

    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    Am back at 55°N.
    Completely dark at 4:15. I know it is the same every year, but it never ceases to surprise.

    Only 55°N? Bloody southerners.
    I try, and fail, to imagine what life in Shetland is like (and I have a good friend from there).
    Oooh thats considerably further north. Never been, but appears to be relatively flat and treeless. Epic Viking festival in January that I must get to one year.
    Not as flattish as (most of) Orkney, but irrespective of that, Shetland is considerably better visited in midsummer than it is in midwinter in my view. A fine place if you like archaeology/history, birds and Old Red Sandstone scenery.
  • Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    Am back at 55°N.
    Completely dark at 4:15. I know it is the same every year, but it never ceases to surprise.

    Only 55°N? Bloody southerners.
    I try, and fail, to imagine what life in Shetland is like (and I have a good friend from there).
    Oooh thats considerably further north. Never been, but appears to be relatively flat and treeless. Epic Viking festival in January that I must get to one year.
    Shetland is really good! Really good scenery. I went in 2004 and stayed in Lerwick. You can get flights from Aberdeen.

  • @RedfieldWilton

    First tie in British voting intention this year.

    Westminster Voting Intention (21 Nov):

    Conservative 37% (+1)
    Labour 37% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (-1)
    Green 6% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Other 2% (-1)

    Changes +/- 15 Nov
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,944
    Age related data

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  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 25,994
    edited November 2021

    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    Am back at 55°N.
    Completely dark at 4:15. I know it is the same every year, but it never ceases to surprise.

    Only 55°N? Bloody southerners.
    I try, and fail, to imagine what life in Shetland is like (and I have a good friend from there).
    Oooh thats considerably further north. Never been, but appears to be relatively flat and treeless. Epic Viking festival in January that I must get to one year.
    Shetland is really good! Really good scenery. I went in 2004 and stayed in Lerwick. You can get flights from Aberdeen.
    Also Edinburgh and (I think) Glasgow.

    Edit: the airport is at the south end, away from Lerwick, but that area is woerth exploring anyway for the remains and birds and scenery.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 54,003
    edited November 2021
    Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating stands at -8%, a two-point increase since last week. This week’s poll finds 44% disapproving (down 1%) of his overall job performance, against 36% approving (up 1%).


    Keir Starmer’s net approval rating has increased by four points in the past week, now standing at -5%. 33% disapprove of Keir Starmer’s job performance (down 2%), while 28% approve (up 2%). Meanwhile, 33% neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance (no change).

    Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, 41% say they think Boris Johnson would be a better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment than Keir Starmer, a result which has increased marginally from 40% in last week’s poll. Conversely, 32% think Keir Starmer would be the better Prime Minister when compared to Boris Johnson (also up 1%).
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,466
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    Am back at 55°N.
    Completely dark at 4:15. I know it is the same every year, but it never ceases to surprise.

    Only 55°N? Bloody southerners.
    I try, and fail, to imagine what life in Shetland is like (and I have a good friend from there).
    Oooh thats considerably further north. Never been, but appears to be relatively flat and treeless. Epic Viking festival in January that I must get to one year.
    Not as flattish as (most of) Orkney, but irrespective of that, Shetland is considerably better visited in midsummer than it is in midwinter in my view. A fine place if you like archaeology/history, birds and Old Red Sandstone scenery.
    Midsummer can be tricky if you find it difficult to sleep when the sky is light. If so you need to find somewhere with good blackout curtains. If you camp you'll get 2 hours sleep.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,738
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).

    The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.

    The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat

    Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
    No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour
    How many people did you speak to?
    Quite a number in an over 2 hours canvass
    So perhaps 20 people?
    I was canvassing with 5 others, collectively we canvassed 100-200
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,944
    COVID Summary

    - Cases are going up in the younger groups (at least for England) - as others have mentioned below. They are falling for the older groups, which have had the boosters.
    - Hospitalisations are falling - with the strongest falls corresponding to the booster program.
    - Deaths are falling.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,804
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).

    The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.

    The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat

    Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
    No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour
    Thanks. I'm thinking of going down there on polling day to see what's going on. Usually I end up chatting to workers from all the parties which is good for getting an idea of what's going to happen.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 25,994
    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    Am back at 55°N.
    Completely dark at 4:15. I know it is the same every year, but it never ceases to surprise.

    Only 55°N? Bloody southerners.
    I try, and fail, to imagine what life in Shetland is like (and I have a good friend from there).
    Oooh thats considerably further north. Never been, but appears to be relatively flat and treeless. Epic Viking festival in January that I must get to one year.
    Not as flattish as (most of) Orkney, but irrespective of that, Shetland is considerably better visited in midsummer than it is in midwinter in my view. A fine place if you like archaeology/history, birds and Old Red Sandstone scenery.
    Midsummer can be tricky if you find it difficult to sleep when the sky is light. If so you need to find somewhere with good blackout curtains. If you camp you'll get 2 hours sleep.
    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    Am back at 55°N.
    Completely dark at 4:15. I know it is the same every year, but it never ceases to surprise.

    Only 55°N? Bloody southerners.
    I try, and fail, to imagine what life in Shetland is like (and I have a good friend from there).
    Oooh thats considerably further north. Never been, but appears to be relatively flat and treeless. Epic Viking festival in January that I must get to one year.
    Not as flattish as (most of) Orkney, but irrespective of that, Shetland is considerably better visited in midsummer than it is in midwinter in my view. A fine place if you like archaeology/history, birds and Old Red Sandstone scenery.
    Midsummer can be tricky if you find it difficult to sleep when the sky is light. If so you need to find somewhere with good blackout curtains. If you camp you'll get 2 hours sleep.
    I remember the sheep starting up their baaing right outside our bedroom window ina very, very north Shetland farm at what seemed like 2 am. But familiar enough sound where I live.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,445
    IanB2 said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).

    The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.

    The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat

    Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
    No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour
    How many people did you speak to?
    Quite a number in an over 2 hours canvass
    So perhaps 20 people?
    In the ‘old days’, if you were experienced and sent out on an ‘every house’ canvass, especially if you had the past canvassing data in front of you as a good campaign would have added to the cards, you could get a reasonable impression on how things were going from doing just a few streets, provided that the area you were sent was reasonably typical and that you were able to extrapolate sensibly not just from the cold data but from the qualitative info you got from the conversations.

    The trouble nowadays is that the main parties very rarely organise like that. The houses you are sent to are normally pre-selected in some way, either from past data or from socio-economic modelling, and have some targeted purpose rather than just being about finding out how everyone in a street is thinking. And more often than not you are sent out blind, with the previous data held back by the agent so as to avoid influencing the subsequent canvass.

    Thus it pays to be sceptical when people come back from a hard fought campaign with reports from just a session or two. HY might have been sent out as part of a drive to firm up past support, in which case it would be no surprise that he found mostly Tories. Other canvassers might have been sent out to past soft supporters of other parties and thus would be speaking mostly to sceptics. Often as not the canvasser is simply given the list of addresses and doesn’t know what the specific intent of that list might be.

    Judging the progress of a campaign from a sample of pre-selected data points, especially if you don’t know the basis of the pre-selection, is a dangerous game!
    I hope he didn't spend the 2 hours telling folk they weren't real Tories.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,738
    edited November 2021
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).

    The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.

    The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat

    Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
    No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour
    How many people did you speak to?
    Quite a number in an over 2 hours canvass
    Did you find any switchers or any would not say but you had down as previously Lab or Conservative?

    Do you know how the area you canvassed normally votes?
    No switchers, though a few Conservatives said they were undecided most were still staying blue.

    Old Bexley and Sidcup is normally a safe Conservative seat at general elections, even Conservative from 1997-2005, so obviously there is little canvass data from past general elections as most activists go to marginals.

    So we had to canvass every house but you can work out if voters are Conservative or not by asking them if they normally vote Conservative, as I did
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 4,083
    edited November 2021
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    Am back at 55°N.
    Completely dark at 4:15. I know it is the same every year, but it never ceases to surprise.

    Only 55°N? Bloody southerners.
    I try, and fail, to imagine what life in Shetland is like (and I have a good friend from there).
    Oooh thats considerably further north. Never been, but appears to be relatively flat and treeless. Epic Viking festival in January that I must get to one year.
    Not as flattish as (most of) Orkney, but irrespective of that, Shetland is considerably better visited in midsummer than it is in midwinter in my view. A fine place if you like archaeology/history, birds and Old Red Sandstone scenery.
    Also worth noting that some of the 'flat' bits are flat in the sense of being at least a good few 10s of metres above sea level and the flatness ends abruptly in a cliff.

    We had our honeymoon there, in June/July a few years back. We've said we'd like to go back, but want to wait until the children are grown up enough not to fall off the cliffs!

    Best place we've ever been for otter sightings. Most was six in one day, on Unst, including one that popped up in front of us up a steep slope from the sea, under 10m away, up-wind and was oblivious to us while having a good old roll around (dealing with an itch, I think) for 2-3 minutes.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,520

    Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating stands at -8%, a two-point increase since last week. This week’s poll finds 44% disapproving (down 1%) of his overall job performance, against 36% approving (up 1%).

    I haven't revised my opinion. I still disapprove. In fact I'm going the other way. If there were a box beyond 'strongly' disapprove I'd be ticking that. Just seen reports of his speech today. FFS.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,239
    dixiedean said:

    IanB2 said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).

    The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.

    The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat

    Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
    No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour
    How many people did you speak to?
    Quite a number in an over 2 hours canvass
    So perhaps 20 people?
    In the ‘old days’, if you were experienced and sent out on an ‘every house’ canvass, especially if you had the past canvassing data in front of you as a good campaign would have added to the cards, you could get a reasonable impression on how things were going from doing just a few streets, provided that the area you were sent was reasonably typical and that you were able to extrapolate sensibly not just from the cold data but from the qualitative info you got from the conversations.

    The trouble nowadays is that the main parties very rarely organise like that. The houses you are sent to are normally pre-selected in some way, either from past data or from socio-economic modelling, and have some targeted purpose rather than just being about finding out how everyone in a street is thinking. And more often than not you are sent out blind, with the previous data held back by the agent so as to avoid influencing the subsequent canvass.

    Thus it pays to be sceptical when people come back from a hard fought campaign with reports from just a session or two. HY might have been sent out as part of a drive to firm up past support, in which case it would be no surprise that he found mostly Tories. Other canvassers might have been sent out to past soft supporters of other parties and thus would be speaking mostly to sceptics. Often as not the canvasser is simply given the list of addresses and doesn’t know what the specific intent of that list might be.

    Judging the progress of a campaign from a sample of pre-selected data points, especially if you don’t know the basis of the pre-selection, is a dangerous game!
    I hope he didn't spend the 2 hours telling folk they weren't real Tories.
    I hope and trust that he did. It’s a shame there is just the one of him.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 35,342

    COVID Summary

    - Cases are going up in the younger groups (at least for England) - as others have mentioned below. They are falling for the older groups, which have had the boosters.
    - Hospitalisations are falling - with the strongest falls corresponding to the booster program.
    - Deaths are falling.

    Small addition in hospital numbers and people on ventilators are down too. The pressure on the NHS is actually falling right now and hopefully the fall will accelerate over the next few weeks as the booster shot reaches more people.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,466
    IanB2 said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).

    The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.

    The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat

    Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
    No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour
    How many people did you speak to?
    Quite a number in an over 2 hours canvass
    So perhaps 20 people?
    In the ‘old days’, if you were experienced and sent out on an ‘every house’ canvass, especially if you had the past canvassing data in front of you as a good campaign would have added to the cards, you could get a reasonable impression on how things were going from doing just a few streets, provided that the area you were sent was reasonably typical and that you were able to extrapolate sensibly not just from the cold data but from the qualitative info you got from the conversations. I always prided myself on coming back from the first evening’s canvass in my own ward with a pretty good feel for how it was going to go.

    The trouble nowadays is that the main parties very rarely organise like that. The houses you are sent to are normally pre-selected in some way, either from past data or from socio-economic modelling, and have some targeted purpose rather than just being about finding out how everyone in a street is thinking. And more often than not you are sent out blind, with the previous data held back by the agent so as to avoid influencing the subsequent canvass.

    Thus it pays to be sceptical when people come back from a hard fought campaign with reports from just a session or two. HY might have been sent out as part of a drive to firm up past support, in which case it would be no surprise that he found mostly Tories. Other canvassers might have been sent out to past soft supporters of other parties and thus would be speaking mostly to sceptics. Often as not the canvasser is simply given the list of addresses and doesn’t know what the specific intent of that list might be.

    Judging the progress of a campaign from a sample of pre-selected data points, especially if you don’t know the basis of the pre-selection, is a dangerous game!
    Really interesting, thanks.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 2,512
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    Am back at 55°N.
    Completely dark at 4:15. I know it is the same every year, but it never ceases to surprise.

    Only 55°N? Bloody southerners.
    I try, and fail, to imagine what life in Shetland is like (and I have a good friend from there).
    Oooh thats considerably further north. Never been, but appears to be relatively flat and treeless. Epic Viking festival in January that I must get to one year.
    Shetland is really good! Really good scenery. I went in 2004 and stayed in Lerwick. You can get flights from Aberdeen.
    Also Edinburgh and (I think) Glasgow.

    Edit: the airport is at the south end, away from Lerwick, but that area is woerth exploring anyway for the remains and birds and scenery.
    Or take a car on the ferry from Aberdeen if you are brave...
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,400
    IanB2 said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).

    The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.

    The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat

    Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
    No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour
    How many people did you speak to?
    Quite a number in an over 2 hours canvass
    So perhaps 20 people?
    In the ‘old days’, if you were experienced and sent out on an ‘every house’ canvass, especially if you had the past canvassing data in front of you as a good campaign would have added to the cards, you could get a reasonable impression on how things were going from doing just a few streets, provided that the area you were sent was reasonably typical and that you were able to extrapolate sensibly not just from the cold data but from the qualitative info you got from the conversations. I always prided myself on coming back from the first evening’s canvass in my own ward with a pretty good feel for how it was going to go.

    The trouble nowadays is that the main parties very rarely organise like that. The houses you are sent to are normally pre-selected in some way, either from past data or from socio-economic modelling, and have some targeted purpose rather than just being about finding out how everyone in a street is thinking. And more often than not you are sent out blind, with the previous data held back by the agent so as to avoid influencing the subsequent canvass.

    Thus it pays to be sceptical when people come back from a hard fought campaign with reports from just a session or two. HY might have been sent out as part of a drive to firm up past support, in which case it would be no surprise that he found mostly Tories. Other canvassers might have been sent out to past soft supporters of other parties and thus would be speaking mostly to sceptics. Often as not the canvasser is simply given the list of addresses and doesn’t know what the specific intent of that list might be.

    Judging the progress of a campaign from a sample of pre-selected data points, especially if you don’t know the basis of the pre-selection, is a dangerous game!
    A quick way to tell is were they canvassing every house in the street or a pre defined selection. I don't know as I am out of date but don't you think they might go for a full canvas rather than targeted canvas for a by election?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,180
    Scott_xP said:

    Removing page numbers from Boris Johnson’s CBI speech. https://twitter.com/CountBinface/status/1462764406140551171/photo/1

    Those aren't hands, they're things from Alien!

    (Slightly weird when you focus on them as no doubt my hands would be too)

    I don't see Rishi as an agressive challenger to Boris. Apart from the idiots - David Davis for example - the only really plausible aggresive challenger is Gove, and he's not got his pupeteer wife behind him now.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,804
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).

    The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.

    The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat

    Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
    No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour
    How many people did you speak to?
    Quite a number in an over 2 hours canvass
    Did you find any switchers or any would not say but you had down as previously Lab or Conservative?

    Do you know how the area you canvassed normally votes?
    No switchers, though a few Conservatives said they were undecided most were still staying blue.

    Old Bexley and Sidcup is normally a safe Conservative seat at general elections, even Conservative from 1997-2005, so obviously there is little canvass data from past general elections as most activists go to marginals.

    So we had to canvass every house but you can work out if voters are Conservative or not by asking them if they normally vote Conservative, as I did
    It would be bad for Labour if their vote share actually goes down slightly, to state the obvious. But it could happen if they lose a few votes to minor parties and don't pick up anything from the Tories.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,804
    "Germans will be 'vaccinated, cured or dead' by winter's end, warns health minister"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/11/22/covid-latest-news-austria-plunged-lockdown-violent-protests/
  • Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements

    Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%

    Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,944
    Andy_JS said:

    "Germans will be 'vaccinated, cured or dead' by winter's end, warns health minister"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/11/22/covid-latest-news-austria-plunged-lockdown-violent-protests/

    14 out of 10 for blunt truth.

    Delta may or may not be stopped by even the hardest lockdown.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,239
    edited November 2021
    kjh said:

    IanB2 said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).

    The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.

    The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat

    Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
    No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour
    How many people did you speak to?
    Quite a number in an over 2 hours canvass
    So perhaps 20 people?
    In the ‘old days’, if you were experienced and sent out on an ‘every house’ canvass, especially if you had the past canvassing data in front of you as a good campaign would have added to the cards, you could get a reasonable impression on how things were going from doing just a few streets, provided that the area you were sent was reasonably typical and that you were able to extrapolate sensibly not just from the cold data but from the qualitative info you got from the conversations. I always prided myself on coming back from the first evening’s canvass in my own ward with a pretty good feel for how it was going to go.

    The trouble nowadays is that the main parties very rarely organise like that. The houses you are sent to are normally pre-selected in some way, either from past data or from socio-economic modelling, and have some targeted purpose rather than just being about finding out how everyone in a street is thinking. And more often than not you are sent out blind, with the previous data held back by the agent so as to avoid influencing the subsequent canvass.

    Thus it pays to be sceptical when people come back from a hard fought campaign with reports from just a session or two. HY might have been sent out as part of a drive to firm up past support, in which case it would be no surprise that he found mostly Tories. Other canvassers might have been sent out to past soft supporters of other parties and thus would be speaking mostly to sceptics. Often as not the canvasser is simply given the list of addresses and doesn’t know what the specific intent of that list might be.

    Judging the progress of a campaign from a sample of pre-selected data points, especially if you don’t know the basis of the pre-selection, is a dangerous game!
    A quick way to tell is were they canvassing every house in the street or a pre defined selection. I don't know as I am out of date but don't you think they might go for a full canvas rather than targeted canvas for a by election?
    That normally only happens if they are either awash with help, or don’t know what they are doing.

    It’s now pretty well established that the principal effect of canvassing is to increase the turnout of those canvassed. Which is a good reason to avoid canvassing people very likely to be firm supporters of your opponents.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 25,994
    edited November 2021
    IanB2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    IanB2 said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).

    The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.

    The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat

    Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
    No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour
    How many people did you speak to?
    Quite a number in an over 2 hours canvass
    So perhaps 20 people?
    In the ‘old days’, if you were experienced and sent out on an ‘every house’ canvass, especially if you had the past canvassing data in front of you as a good campaign would have added to the cards, you could get a reasonable impression on how things were going from doing just a few streets, provided that the area you were sent was reasonably typical and that you were able to extrapolate sensibly not just from the cold data but from the qualitative info you got from the conversations.

    The trouble nowadays is that the main parties very rarely organise like that. The houses you are sent to are normally pre-selected in some way, either from past data or from socio-economic modelling, and have some targeted purpose rather than just being about finding out how everyone in a street is thinking. And more often than not you are sent out blind, with the previous data held back by the agent so as to avoid influencing the subsequent canvass.

    Thus it pays to be sceptical when people come back from a hard fought campaign with reports from just a session or two. HY might have been sent out as part of a drive to firm up past support, in which case it would be no surprise that he found mostly Tories. Other canvassers might have been sent out to past soft supporters of other parties and thus would be speaking mostly to sceptics. Often as not the canvasser is simply given the list of addresses and doesn’t know what the specific intent of that list might be.

    Judging the progress of a campaign from a sample of pre-selected data points, especially if you don’t know the basis of the pre-selection, is a dangerous game!
    I hope he didn't spend the 2 hours telling folk they weren't real Tories.
    I hope and trust that he did. It’s a shame there is just the one of him.
    Funny thing about HYUFD is that he's not even a true Tory, as (not without some logic) he believes in an English Pmt, which AFAIK has not been Party policy at any time, any more than (say) hanging & flogging, though as he points out quite a few ordinary members favour the former, and I'm sure they also favour the latter.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,937
    Was that reassuring to Conservative voters? It looked to me like a case for Nurse Ratched
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 5,036

    Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements

    Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%

    Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it

    I love your posts. One minute you're joining in the widescale condemnation and asking for Boris's head on a platter - Tory MPs must defenestrate him now! The next minute you're implicitly condemning the widescale condemnation and hinting that Boris is the saviour after all. Certainly keeps me on my toes.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 2,707

    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    Am back at 55°N.
    Completely dark at 4:15. I know it is the same every year, but it never ceases to surprise.

    Only 55°N? Bloody southerners.
    I try, and fail, to imagine what life in Shetland is like (and I have a good friend from there).
    Oooh thats considerably further north. Never been, but appears to be relatively flat and treeless. Epic Viking festival in January that I must get to one year.
    Shetland has great coastal scenery, wildlife, beaches etc. It isn't flat like most of Orkney, it is actually quite hilly.

    My only real complaint was that the cafes and shops still seem to serve instant coffee.

    The Northlink ferry from Aberdeen is really good; particularly with a decent cabin.
  • HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).

    The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.

    The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat

    Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
    No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour
    How many people did you speak to?
    Quite a number in an over 2 hours canvass
    Did you find any switchers or any would not say but you had down as previously Lab or Conservative?

    Do you know how the area you canvassed normally votes?
    No switchers, though a few Conservatives said they were undecided most were still staying blue.

    Old Bexley and Sidcup is normally a safe Conservative seat at general elections, even Conservative from 1997-2005, so obviously there is little canvass data from past general elections as most activists go to marginals.

    So we had to canvass every house but you can work out if voters are Conservative or not by asking them if they normally vote Conservative, as I did
    When canvassing, rule of thumb is that folks who say tell you they are undecided, are really against your side.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 24,543
    ...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,738
    edited November 2021
    IanB2 said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).

    The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.

    The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat

    Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
    No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour
    How many people did you speak to?
    Quite a number in an over 2 hours canvass
    So perhaps 20 people?
    In the ‘old days’, if you were experienced and sent out on an ‘every house’ canvass, especially if you had the past canvassing data in front of you as a good campaign would have added to the cards, you could get a reasonable impression on how things were going from doing just a few streets, provided that the area you were sent was reasonably typical and that you were able to extrapolate sensibly not just from the cold data but from the qualitative info you got from the conversations. I always prided myself on coming back from the first evening’s canvass in my own ward with a pretty good feel for how it was going to go.

    The trouble nowadays is that the main parties very rarely organise like that. The houses you are sent to are normally pre-selected in some way, either from past data or from socio-economic modelling, and have some targeted purpose rather than just being about finding out how everyone in a street is thinking. And more often than not you are sent out blind, with the previous data held back by the agent so as to avoid influencing the subsequent canvass.

    Thus it pays to be sceptical when people come back from a hard fought campaign with reports from just a session or two. HY might have been sent out as part of a drive to firm up past support, in which case it would be no surprise that he found mostly Tories. Other canvassers might have been sent out to past soft supporters of other parties and thus would be speaking mostly to sceptics. Often as not the canvasser is simply given the list of addresses and doesn’t know what the specific intent of that list might be. At the least, any good campaign screens out past and likely non-voters as a waste of canvassers’ time.

    Judging the progress of a campaign from a sample of pre-selected data points, especially if you don’t know the basis of the pre-selection, is a dangerous game!
    That may be the case in marginal seats at general elections or marginal wards in local elections, as I already said it was not the case here.

    We had to canvass every house and did so, as Old Bexley and Sidcup is a Conservative held seat which stayed Conservative even from 1997-2005 so obviously there is little previous canvass data from past general elections to target from as most activists will have been sent to marginals
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,831

    Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements

    Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%

    Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it

    I would guess the voting intention of the regular contributers on this site would be 60% Labour, 20% Tory, 10% LD 10% others so not particularly representative.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 25,993
    Andy_JS said:

    "The Independent
    @Independent
    Suspect in Wisconsin Christmas parade attack identified as Darrell Brooks"

    https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1462802693848764421

    He is EXTREMELY lucky that Wisconsin does not have the death penalty. I doubt he would be shown leniency
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,400
    IanB2 said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Judging by my canvassing in Old Bexley and Sidcup yesterday it will be a comfortable Tory hold in 10 days time (not 3 days).

    The Conservative vote from 2019 is holding up bar a few undecideds and James Brokenshire is remembered with affection. They will not care less about Boris being Boris and losing his place at one point in a speech.

    The most interesting thing will be whether the LDs fall to 4th place. I found mainly Conservative voters yesterday and a few Labour, I did not find a single LD voter and we also know Tice and RefUK are campaigning hard in the seat

    Do you think there's any chance of Labour coming in below 2nd place?
    No, the only voters who said they were not voting Conservative, who were the minority, said they were voting Labour
    How many people did you speak to?
    Quite a number in an over 2 hours canvass
    So perhaps 20 people?
    In the ‘old days’, if you were experienced and sent out on an ‘every house’ canvass, especially if you had the past canvassing data in front of you as a good campaign would have added to the cards, you could get a reasonable impression on how things were going from doing just a few streets, provided that the area you were sent was reasonably typical and that you were able to extrapolate sensibly not just from the cold data but from the qualitative info you got from the conversations. I always prided myself on coming back from the first evening’s canvass in my own ward with a pretty good feel for how it was going to go.

    The trouble nowadays is that the main parties very rarely organise like that. The houses you are sent to are normally pre-selected in some way, either from past data or from socio-economic modelling, and have some targeted purpose rather than just being about finding out how everyone in a street is thinking. And more often than not you are sent out blind, with the previous data held back by the agent so as to avoid influencing the subsequent canvass.

    Thus it pays to be sceptical when people come back from a hard fought campaign with reports from just a session or two. HY might have been sent out as part of a drive to firm up past support, in which case it would be no surprise that he found mostly Tories. Other canvassers might have been sent out to past soft supporters of other parties and thus would be speaking mostly to sceptics. Often as not the canvasser is simply given the list of addresses and doesn’t know what the specific intent of that list might be. At the least, any good campaign screens out past and likely non-voters as a waste of canvassers’ time.

    Judging the progress of a campaign from a sample of pre-selected data points, especially if you don’t know the basis of the pre-selection, is a dangerous game!
    Sounds like you might be familiar with the carbon copy shuttleworths. Ah the good old days.

    Always wary of a candidate canvassing, mainly as people don't like to be rude. One year a candidate canvassed a road and if his results were accurate he was going to walk it. We re-canvassed and got a very different result. He lost.
  • Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements

    Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%

    Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it

    Isn't that a national poll though? The damage to Johnson over the rail cancellation will impact midland and northern seats, not southern.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,520
    Omnium said:

    kinabalu said:

    murali_s said:

    Re: Boarding school. I was sent to be a boarder at the age of nine, primarily because my parents wanted the best education for me. The only way my father could finance it was to take a job with the ODA (now DfiD) in Africa. Therefore, I had to board. The immigrant mentality that education was everything was the driver for this.

    I hated it, It was horrible. I was close to my parents especially Mum at the age of nine (most kids are), so being away from them was emotionally tough for me. I was the youngest and the only BAME so inevitably I was bullied and made to feel miserable. It got better as the years progressed (I reverted to day school at 13). I didn’t want to complain to my parents because they were surely giving me a privileged education so I dutifully sucked it up. I may have an excellent academic record, a good job, a nice house, experienced the expat lifestyle when on holiday and some loyal life long friends but you know what? I would trade all those things in for me to be with my parents between the ages of 9 and 13.

    The road to hell is paved with good intentions as they say!

    For once I agree with @Leon and @Sean_F. They are 100% spot on here.

    I can't relate at all, I went to a comp just around the corner from where we lived, but my wife was sent to boarding school at age 11. Not only that, the school was in Sussex, her parental home in Borneo. Hard to get your mind around really. An 11 year old girl despatched all alone by her parents to live on the other side of the world. Her first year was absolutely grim. Bullied horribly. Homesick. Miserable beyond words. Worst period of her life. However she came through it and eventually settled in, made friends, and from 13 to 18 she loved it, says they were the best years of her life (and that includes her time married to Hampstead's most eligible). She is also now, in adulthood, an empathetic and resilient person. Course she might have been anyway, loath to draw that sort of conclusion, and girls' schools and girls are different to boys' schools and boys. Moral of the story is, I'd imagine that boarding schools can be good for some kids whilst being bad for (probably) most. But in any case they're all fee-paying, aren't they, so in my 'world king' future they don't exist.
    When I ponder my schooling I do think that it may have had two very strong influences on me. Firstly it was all-male. I simply didn't have any female friends from say 11-17. So I'm not married, nor been close, and have no children - and I'd have liked to have had children. Secondly and prehaps as a result I did pretty well academicaly and haven't done so bad in life overall, whereas given my background I should have had little hope of doing so. I don't know if I'd change things on the scales.
    I'd certainly change loads but then I wouldn't be me and it wouldn't have been my life. I try to steer a middle course between constructing a false and reassuring narrative and being too self-flagellating. Oddly, I have very little memory of schooldays. It's as if I were born at 17 when I left home for London and uni. Everything before then is a bit of a fog.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,180
    Roger said:

    Was that reassuring to Conservative voters? It looked to me like a case for Nurse Ratched

    At least when Corbyn was around it was a tooth-and-nail certainty.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,804
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "The Independent
    @Independent
    Suspect in Wisconsin Christmas parade attack identified as Darrell Brooks"

    https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1462802693848764421

    He is EXTREMELY lucky that Wisconsin does not have the death penalty. I doubt he would be shown leniency
    Unless they somehow find a way to categorise it as a federal crime. They did that with the guy who bombed the Boston marathon despite the fact Massachusetts doesn't have the death penalty.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 5,036

    Looking at RedfieldWilton poll just now, it does not show the widescale condemnation of Boris as seen on here and this is post the rail infrastructure announcements

    Indeed he still leads preferred PM to Starmer by 41% to 32%

    Should we ask ourselves are we actually reflecting the country, though it has to be accepted the Paterson affair has damaged the conservative party and without which I believe they would lead the pols much as that did before it

    I would guess the voting intention of the regular contributers on this site would be 60% Labour, 20% Tory, 10% LD 10% others so not particularly representative.
    Gosh. I'd put it at 10% Boris-Tory, 40% non-Boris Tory, 25% LD, 15% Labour, 10% others/undecided.
  • Andy_JS said:

    "Germans will be 'vaccinated, cured or dead' by winter's end, warns health minister"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/11/22/covid-latest-news-austria-plunged-lockdown-violent-protests/

    New zombie storyline for Call of Duty: Vanguard taken care of.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,325


    @RedfieldWilton

    First tie in British voting intention this year.

    Westminster Voting Intention (21 Nov):

    Conservative 37% (+1)
    Labour 37% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (-1)
    Green 6% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Other 2% (-1)

    Changes +/- 15 Nov

    LOL!

    I'm sure Pepper Piggate will shift the polls for Labour! :D
This discussion has been closed.