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Is Sunak going to give state pensioners an 8% increase? – politicalbetting.com

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  • Carnyx said:

    For GB, yes; for NI, not so much.
    For Britain, Britain has exited the EU, yes. That's Brexit quite literally isn't it?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,119

    Does this get better every time it is posted? How many more times before close of the thread I wonder?
    Just be thankful you aren't likely to see eleven grinning Boris Johnson's at the top of the next thread.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,138
    Brexit no more delivered today than it was yesterday.

    Some of the pain has arrived and all of the benefits (sic) are due "tomorrow..."
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,151
    IshmaelZ said:

    So he outright lied? He said as soon as he opened the grades he knew he was guaranteed to go to Bradford. Would that be the case with clearing?
    Depends. If your dad's mate is VC and you've been told that there will be a place there for you if you miss the grades for your choices...
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Immigration is now the TOP issue for British Conservative voters"

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1425566046837256193

    Reminiscent of the Sweden Democrats: that’s how they got going. By getting immigration to the top of the agenda. The difference is that Sweden had a sensible centre-right party, so the far right were stymied.

    The overthrow of the old centre right in England is now complete. Vive la révolution!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    For Britain, Britain has exited the EU, yes. That's Brexit quite literally isn't it?
    Polishing the turd a bit there, but if it keeps you happy!
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,714

    Can you give me a citation please on the EDL believing that England should be independent and apart from Scotland? I've never heard anything about that from them.

    They're racist scumbags. No more and no less, don't enlighten them as to being anything other that racist bigots.
    No I can't, but the clue's in the name, I suspect - what's the E stand for? No mention of Scotland (or Wales for that matter). I suspect they'd be happy to allow the sectarian Unionists of NI to belong, though.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,301
    I think we're probably getting to the end of silly season and we're about to see the start of the first big post covid crisis to enter the public consciousness - U.S. Asks Taliban to Spare Its Embassy in Coming Fight for Kabul.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,824
    edited August 2021

    Goodwin loves it. He started off some years ago as an academic analyst of social divisions, now his main leitmotif seems to be to promote such divisions.

    But I suspect it's not really immigration at all, is it? 'Immigration' is just a proxy for asylum seekers/refugees crossing the Channel. Not at all the same thing as immigration.

    Lazy polling, and lazy tweeting.
    Immigration is often a proxy marker for "people not like me".
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,714
    kinabalu said:

    Oh great.
    Don't worry, the Greens would have you, once Labour finishes expelling everybody earning above average wage, on the grounds of gross hypocrisy. :)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,824
    MattW said:

    Or, as the modern definition linked puts it:

    "Gaslighting is a form of emotional abuse that’s seen in abusive relationships. It’s the act of manipulating a person by forcing them to question their thoughts, memories, and the events occurring around them. "

    By which you can see that an accusation of gaslighting - telling someone that they are emotionally abusing you by doing X Y or Z - can very easily itself meet the definition of gaslighting viz. manipulating a person by forcing them to question their thoughts, memories etc.

    Very easily manipulable by being the first party to report whatever to whoever.
    It also comes from a film from the 40's and has been in the lexicon since the 60's.
    It is hardly a recent coinage.
  • kinabalu said:

    And it pains you so. That's very clear.
    For me as a conservative I am content though not entirely uncritical of HMG and Boris in particular

    Mind you if these polls are to be believed I cannot see Boris leaving his post

    Interestingly over the last couple of days I have heard from some in the party and mps that they recognise Boris has had a poor time but there are no signs of an immediate response to the position
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,714
    Long thread on breakthrough infections in US and Delta variant:



    avid Wallace-Wells
    @dwallacewells
    The vaccines are still performing quite well in preventing severe disease. But with Delta they are doing much worse in stopping transmission. Breakthroughs are probably now 10-20% of new infections, and perhaps as much as 5% of new deaths. A thread. (1/x)

    https://twitter.com/dwallacewells/status/1425776372065132544
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Hmm, even taking into account the delayed Welsh figures case numbers not as low as I was expecting for us topping out.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504

    Starmer's crapness is not sufficient to explain the polling. It is the perception and the reality of the contemporary Labour Party that is giving the Tories an undeserved boost.
    The problem isn't that Starmer is crap. He is a blank canvas - no one knows what "Starmerism" is.
  • Goodwin loves it. He started off some years ago as an academic analyst of social divisions, now his main leitmotif seems to be to promote such divisions.

    But I suspect it's not really immigration at all, is it? 'Immigration' is just a proxy for asylum seekers/refugees crossing the Channel. Not at all the same thing as immigration.

    Lazy polling, and lazy tweeting.
    I agree - this is almost certainly a result of Patel's failure to tackle the cross channel smuggling of migrants
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Foss said:

    I think we're probably getting to the end of silly season and we're about to see the start of the first big post covid crisis to enter the public consciousness - U.S. Asks Taliban to Spare Its Embassy in Coming Fight for Kabul.

    Could Biden lose the next election on this? Vietnam II
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,714
    edited August 2021
    Selebian said:

    Depends. If your dad's mate is VC and you've been told that there will be a place there for you if you miss the grades for your choices...
    Williamson could have had an unconditional offer; they were quite common in his day. School predicted him 3 As, Bradford said yes please whatever, Gavin got 3 Es, Bradford ruing the day and changing its policy on unconditional offers.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    Sandpit said:

    One for John Rentoul’s QTWTAIN series.

    No, the Chancellor isn’t going to increase pensions by 8%.

    Given how the WASPI supporters acted I dont see a reasonable response to his decision if that is what it is.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited August 2021

    No I can't, but the clue's in the name, I suspect - what's the E stand for? No mention of Scotland (or Wales for that matter). I suspect they'd be happy to allow the sectarian Unionists of NI to belong, though.
    So you can't, good, and no the clue is not in the name. The name England does not make you an England nationalist. Is the England football team full of England nationalists? The England Cricket Team? The ECB?

    They're racist shithead scum. I've never seen anything from them on English independence and neither have you, so that doesn't make them nationalists.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,771

    The timing for such a party is ripe because the new political polarities are morphing from left versus right to freedom versus control.
    Interesting thought.

    There is something of an authoritarian wing to even the LDs. This afternoon on Lib Dem voice there is a piece arguing that there should be Carbon Rationing for each person, and therefore the means to monitor it, justified by rationing in WW2.
    https://www.libdemvoice.org/taking-decisive-climate-action-68380.html
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504

    Long thread on breakthrough infections in US and Delta variant:



    avid Wallace-Wells
    @dwallacewells
    The vaccines are still performing quite well in preventing severe disease. But with Delta they are doing much worse in stopping transmission. Breakthroughs are probably now 10-20% of new infections, and perhaps as much as 5% of new deaths. A thread. (1/x)

    https://twitter.com/dwallacewells/status/1425776372065132544

    So, exactly what we have been seeing in the UK for months...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,714
    "Young Black New Yorkers are especially reluctant to get vaccinated, even as the Delta variant is rapidly spreading among their ranks. City data shows that only 27 percent of Black New Yorkers ages 18 to 44 years are fully vaccinated,"

    "...he would rather put his trust in masks and hand sanitizer — which he credits with keeping him healthy as he worked at construction sites throughout the pandemic — than a new vaccine that the government is pushing people to take. “They came out with one so fast for Covid, and now they want to pay you to take it,” he said. “It seems fishy.” "

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/nyregion/covid-vaccine-black-young-new-yorkers.html
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: “The French had a coordinated foreign policy two years out with a former PM working on it and 200 diplomats in support. We've got nothing like that basically, not even close.”

    Me and @KarlMathiesen's report on the battle for COP26 https://politico.eu/article/boris-johnson-climate-problem-conservative-government-cop26/

    We heard Boris Johnson has sent repeated messages to the cabinet in person and in writing that COP26 was a core government priority - but that hasn't been enough to right the ship
    https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1425729656825712643

    Do they achieve anything beyond promises anyway?

    Genuine question, not snarky. I just dont see his to judge it a success or not, since a promise not from one not realised is worse than no promise.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    Long thread on breakthrough infections in US and Delta variant:
    [snip]

    TBH I think the US data is so patchy and confused, and so badly presented, that it doesn't really tell us anything very useful. Our own UK data is far better. In addition they screwed up the age profile of vaccinations, failing to jab quite a high proportion of over 50s, and they also went with the 3-week interval for Pfizer, which is known to be less effective than the longer periods used here.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,771
    It seems that Len McCluskey has an autobiography coming out.

    https://www.orbooks.com/catalog/always-red/
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,926
    "@BritainElects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 41% (+1)
    LAB: 30% (-1)
    LDEM: 13% (-)
    GRN: 8% (+2)

    via
    @IpsosMORI
    , 30 Jul - 09 Aug
    Chgs. w/ Jul"

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1425834782630440963
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,867

    Could Biden lose the next election on this? Vietnam II
    Ford didn’t lose the 1976 election over Vietnam.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,714

    Could Biden lose the next election on this? Vietnam II
    NYTimes did a piece on that and thought not. Most americans support getting out and have for a while. Trump will struggle to attack the results as he started the process.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,563
    MattW said:

    Interesting thought.

    There is something of an authoritarian wing to even the LDs. This afternoon on Lib Dem voice there is a piece arguing that there should be Carbon Rationing for each person, and therefore the means to monitor it, justified by rationing in WW2.
    https://www.libdemvoice.org/taking-decisive-climate-action-68380.html
    Yeah the LibDems will want you to have a personal carbon metre to measure everything you do and then cut off all activity when you have reached your daily limit.

    Quite why @kinabalu chose them as a party goodness only knows.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,301

    Could Biden lose the next election on this? Vietnam II
    The question is just how much does America still care? If it does - and it massively impacts his ratings - then an autumn '21 fall gives the Democrats time to find another candidate for '24 and let Biden retire after one term with some dignity rather than after a thrashing.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,714

    So you can't, good, and no the clue is not in the name. The name England does not make you an England nationalist. Is the England football team full of England nationalists? The England Cricket Team? The ECB?

    They're racist shithead scum. I've never seen anything from them on English independence and neither have you, so that doesn't make them nationalists.
    I should have known better than to engage with you. Bonkers and pointless comparisons.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    UK cases by specimen date

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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    edited August 2021
    Cyclefree said:

    1. The US criminal authorities have charged Ghislaine Maxwell. As part of that they may be seeking evidence from Andrew as a potential witness. There is no necessity for him to fly to the US to do this. He would be well advised not to in any case until the basis on which such discussions are had is clear & there is clear agreement on what use can & cannot be made of whatever he says. This is because there are various protections in law - both English & the US - and everyone is entitled to use them. There are dangers in volunteering evidence without doing so. There are also issues for the US authorities because evidence gathered in such a way may not be admissible in any subsequent trial

    Believe me, I have advised a number of people in similar circumstances & any good lawyer would be very wary about telling a client to go to the US to speak to the criminal authorities there just because they ask.

    The US authorities - whether criminal or regulatory - are very willing to grandstand in public to bully people into ignoring their rights. They will often try to ignore different legal requirements in overseas jurisdictions because (a) it is just plain inconvenient for them or (b) it stops them doing what they want.

    2. The US criminal authorities have not charged Andrew with anything. Extradition is irrelevant.

    3. He now faces a civil suit in the US - brought just before the limitation period expires. It is not entirely clear whether the allegation is that he had sex with a minor or had sex with someone over the age of consent without her consent (rape, in other words) or something else. There is an issue as to jurisdiction because the acts complained of, AFAIU, happened in the UK.

    It really does not matter whether he is an HRH or not. He is entitled to the same legal protections as everyone else including the presumption of innocence until proven guilty. There is something unseemly in the way that people rush to assume that because he appears to be an entitled twit he must therefore be guilty of serious crimes. Some of the comments made about him on social media are seriously defamatory. Equally, he is subject to the law as everyone else.

    There will be strategic & tactical decisions which his lawyers will have to consider. In addition, he - and his advisors - need to consider the impact of his behaviour on the rest of his family.

    Much of what is written in the papers about this is ill-informed nonsense.

    I have no idea who is telling the truth here. I do think Andrew was ill-advised to give that interview. But in any event, the matter is now in the hands of the lawyers and, from what I know, some of those advising him are very good indeed. I hope for his sake that he listens to good advice. He clearly hasn't in the past.

    You'd have thought courtiers or someone might have warned him about Epstein. But there again Epstein managed to get into his orbit people far far cleverer than Andrew - Clinton, Gates etc. So what does that say about them?
    Yes, theres a lot to say about all this, plenty of which does not look good for Andrew, but some are deliberately having fun implying a lot more than can be reasonably alleged, for pretty obvious reasons. Using legal avenues or doing no more than legally required may or may not look good, but it's not a sign of automatic guilt.

    Though some police act like it is. My favourite tv trope is when cops say they can do it now or come back with a warrant, and as things need to move on people give in, when in reality theyd definitely wait for a warrant, you'd hope, and why would doing it properly worry people.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    UK local R

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  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    dixiedean said:

    It also comes from a film from the 40's and has been in the lexicon since the 60's.
    It is hardly a recent coinage.
    This subthread is a bit circular as you will see if you unnest the quotes.

    Hangover Square, also by Patrick Hamilton, is one of the best novels about drink.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Talking of green policies, we've just had a preliminary estimate for installing a heat pump system for Chez Nabavi.

    Gulp!!!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,986
    edited August 2021


    So you can't, good, and no the clue is not in the name. The name England does not make you an England nationalist. Is the England football team full of England nationalists? The England Cricket Team? The ECB?

    They're racist shithead scum. I've never seen anything from them on English independence and neither have you, so that doesn't make them nationalists.

    Haven't seen much from you on 'English independence' tbh, just vague ramblings on freedom and self government which can be appended with British or English depending on what day of the week it is.

    That kind of incoherence isn't a bad fit with the EDL approach actually.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    UK case summary

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    UK Hospitals

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  • ydoethur said:

    Ford didn’t lose the 1976 election over Vietnam.
    Ford's approval rating nosedived when he pardoned Nixon and never recovered from that.

    The fall of Saigon doesn't even feature in his polling chart as an event.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    UK deaths

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    UK R

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    Age related data

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    Age related data scaled to 100K

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    edited August 2021
    Foss said:

    I think we're probably getting to the end of silly season and we're about to see the start of the first big post covid crisis to enter the public consciousness - U.S. Asks Taliban to Spare Its Embassy in Coming Fight for Kabul.

    Pathetically weak from the Biden administration.

    This US administration is the weakest on foreign policy since Carter and probably weaker and Carter at least had some success in the Camp David accords.

    Putin, Xi, Iran and the Taliban and what remains of IS and AQ will be laughing their heads off at that
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,986
    Hope the 999 lines are prepared for the onslaught.

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1425821040605761558?s=20
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    I should have known better than to engage with you. Bonkers and pointless comparisons.
    I’m afraid Philip is correct. Simply having the name English in the name of an organisation does not automatically make it nationalist.

    Eg. the Scottish National Trust is a deeply Unionist and conservative organisation
    The African National Congress does not seek a United Africa (AFAIAA)
    The British Library is not a British nationalist organisation
    The English National Opera is not English nationalist

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,935

    I’m afraid Philip is correct. Simply having the name English in the name of an organisation does not automatically make it nationalist.

    Eg. the Scottish National Trust is a deeply Unionist and conservative organisation
    The African National Congress does not seek a United Africa (AFAIAA)
    The British Library is not a British nationalist organisation
    The English National Opera is not English nationalist

    Would it be fair to query why they apparently want to leave Wales, Scotland and N Ireland undefended if they want to keep the UK together?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,771
    edited August 2021

    Talking of green policies, we've just had a preliminary estimate for installing a heat pump system for Chez Nabavi.

    Gulp!!!

    On your heatpump, have you a decent offer of Green Homes Grant?

    The way to do it is to make sure your fabric is as good as possible, which then requires a much smaller heatpump, and to run your own heat model first as they like to sell expensive ones.

    On heatpumps, the Guardian currently has a survey asking for experiences with heatpumps.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/aug/11/tell-us-have-you-installed-an-electric-heat-pump-in-your-home

    (Apols if teaching you to suck eggs)
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    I’m afraid Philip is correct. Simply having the name English in the name of an organisation does not automatically make it nationalist.

    Eg. the Scottish National Trust is a deeply Unionist and conservative organisation
    The African National Congress does not seek a United Africa (AFAIAA)
    The British Library is not a British nationalist organisation
    The English National Opera is not English nationalist

    The Royal Ballet is not a monarchist front!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,986

    Would it be fair to query why they apparently want to leave Wales, Scotland and N Ireland undefended if they want to keep the UK together?
    I fear I must report that there are both Scottish and Welsh Defence Leagues closely associated with their English bredren. Presumably they think the Norns have enough violent extremists to be going on with.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,714
    edited August 2021

    I’m afraid Philip is correct. Simply having the name English in the name of an organisation does not automatically make it nationalist.

    Eg. the Scottish National Trust is a deeply Unionist and conservative organisation
    The African National Congress does not seek a United Africa (AFAIAA)
    The British Library is not a British nationalist organisation
    The English National Opera is not English nationalist

    I can't believe that I got embroiled in this discussion. The idea that the English Defence League isn't an English nationalist party that doesn't want to Defend, er, England specifically (rather than Scotland, Wales or Britain) is ludicrous. I believe you can be both nationalist and fascist.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    felix said:

    The Royal Ballet is not a monarchist front!
    Hmmmm....

    - Royal in the name
    - Extreme dedication to fitness
    - Regimentation
    - Some quite militaristic themes in some productions....

    Are you sure?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    MattW said:

    On your heatpump, have you a decent offer of Green Homes Grant?

    The way to do it is to make sure your fabric is as good as possible, which then requires a much smaller heatpump, and to run your own heat model first as they like to sell expensive ones.

    On heatpumps, the Guardian currently has a survey asking for experiences with heatpumps.

    https://forum.buildhub.org.uk/topic/22484-the-guardian-are-asking-for-experience-with-heat-pumps-questionnaire/?tab=comments#comment-351445
    It's a large, draughty, listed building, getting it up to a standard of good insulation would be near-impossible. At best it would require complete gutting of the place, and is not practical whilst we live here even if it could be done without spoiling the building and we could get listed building consent for it.

    But we haven't even really got that far, we're just trying at this stage to get a very preliminary idea of costings. Ouch, ouch!

    I feel that maybe a hybrid heat-pump/oil system would be more practical, especially since we don't need to heat the whole house all the time.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,926
    Ipsos Mori is a good poll for the LDs on 13%, not so good for Labour on 30%.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    NYTimes did a piece on that and thought not. Most americans support getting out and have for a while. Trump will struggle to attack the results as he started the process.
    Domestic inflation is becoming a worry for Biden. The Fed thinks price increases are only temporary as the economy recovers, but hmmn.


  • I should have known better than to engage with you. Bonkers and pointless comparisons.
    You're the one who claimed that them having England in their name makes them England nationalists. That surely applies to the ECB too then?

    England != nationalist. Nationalist means a belief that should be an independent country, that's what it means. Unless the EDL want a divorce with Scotland, as I do and as Scottish nationalists do, they're not nationalists.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970
    Athens anecdata

    Parts of it completely rammed with tourists. As it was 2 summers ago

    Half a km away: desolation. Shuttered street after shuttered street. I guess that’s what a ten year Depression does, followed by a global plague

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,926
    Leon said:

    Athens anecdata

    Parts of it completely rammed with tourists. As it was 2 summers ago

    Half a km away: desolation. Shuttered street after shuttered street. I guess that’s what a ten year Depression does, followed by a global plague

    Why the difference between different areas though?
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    Andy_JS said:

    Ipsos Mori is a good poll for the LDs on 13%, not so good for Labour on 30%.

    How do Labour win a GE from here?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970
    Andy_JS said:

    Why the difference between different areas though?
    The old town/acropolis thrives. Some business districts and even some quite upmarket residential areas look like bits of Tunis. Graffiti everywhere. Streets crumble
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,151
    TOPPING said:

    Yeah the LibDems will want you to have a personal carbon metre to measure everything you do and then cut off all activity when you have reached your daily limit.

    Quite why @kinabalu chose them as a party goodness only knows.
    I'll have my personal carbon metre in the diamond allotrope, please :wink:
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,714

    How do Labour win a GE from here?
    By getting a lot more votes than the Tories?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,923
    Sandpit said:

    Scottish ferries update: The interim CEO brought in to manage the shipyard after it was nationalised, was expected to be there for a couple of months at £2,500 a day. He’s still there two years and £1.3m later… Nice work if you can get it.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/08/11/boss-shipyard-nationalised-nicola-sturgeon-paid-2500-day/

    Must be a friend of someone in high places.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,923

    The truth hurts
    Yes England is rich , the 3 trillion is just imaginary. Adjust those rosy Tory specs.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,151

    The problem isn't that Starmer is crap. He is a blank canvas - no one knows what "Starmerism" is.
    So was Cameron, in many ways. He only got elected because Labour cocked up/Labour were holding the ball when it all went wrong (delete as appropriate). He detoxified the Conservatives, but I'd be hard pressed to define Cameronism.

    I still think Starmer has a chance if (a) one of the governments cock-ups really hits normal people (or a post-Covid global economic shitshow happens) and (b) he can get rid of, or at least keep quiet, the loons in Labour. I don't think the combination of those is particularly likely and he might also need a (c) of the Tories defenstrating Johnson and picking someone less electable, as Labour did with Blair -> Brown.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,986
    edited August 2021
    Leon said:

    Athens anecdata

    Parts of it completely rammed with tourists. As it was 2 summers ago

    Half a km away: desolation. Shuttered street after shuttered street. I guess that’s what a ten year Depression does, followed by a global plague

    There was a programme on R4 a couple of years ago on the phenomenon of down at heel, impoverished urban areas (Brooklyn, Kreuzberg, various London neighbourhoods) becoming artistic hot spots; squats, cheap property, cheap to live etc, with the concomitant gentrification following. They suggested Athens was set to become the next big thing, any sign of that?
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    dixiedean said:

    Immigration is often a proxy marker for "people not like me".
    Surely just the main issues of the day - collapse of rule of law in Afghanistan, Covid variants risk to the country, summer season of illegal channel crossings. Outside of Covid which is vastly improved these have been the stories of the last few weeks
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,288

    “Senior Biden officials finding that Covid lab leak theory at least as credible as natural origins explanation”

    https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/16/politics/biden-intel-review-covid-origins/index.html

    Credible, certainly. But not probable.
    From the link:
    ...Current intelligence reinforces the belief that the virus most likely originated naturally, from animal-human contact and was not deliberately engineered, the sources said. But that does not preclude the possibility that the virus was the result of an accidental leak from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, where coronavirus research was being conducted on bats...
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Selebian said:


    [snip]
    So was Cameron, in many ways. He only got elected because Labour cocked up/Labour were holding the ball when it all went wrong (delete as appropriate). He detoxified the Conservatives, but I'd be hard pressed to define Cameronism.
    ...

    You've just defined it.

    And it's not true that he got elected because Labour were holding the ball when it all went wrong - he was going to win anyway. If anything, the global financial crisis helped Brown (ironically).
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    Selebian said:

    So was Cameron, in many ways. He only got elected because Labour cocked up/Labour were holding the ball when it all went wrong (delete as appropriate). He detoxified the Conservatives, but I'd be hard pressed to define Cameronism.

    I still think Starmer has a chance if (a) one of the governments cock-ups really hits normal people (or a post-Covid global economic shitshow happens) and (b) he can get rid of, or at least keep quiet, the loons in Labour. I don't think the combination of those is particularly likely and he might also need a (c) of the Tories defenstrating Johnson and picking someone less electable, as Labour did with Blair -> Brown.
    Cameron actually put forward an aggressive campaign of defining himself & and the Party - green stuff, Rwanda, binning people for being part of the Nasty Party etc etc...

    If Starmer started doing Starmer Direct talks with groups of the public....

    Cameron didn't just sit there and wait for everyone to decide that since it was a choice between the blank slate and Brown....
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited August 2021
    From Googling it, it appears that Tommy Robinson and the EDL opposed Scottish independence, they didn't support it. They also have sister organisations the WDL and SDL in Wales and Scotland.

    So no, they're not English nationalists. They're racists and that's all they are. They're no more nationalists, than Nazis are socialists.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,570

    By getting a lot more votes than the Tories?
    Labour don't need to win. It is enough for the Tories to lose.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822


    Cameron actually put forward an aggressive campaign of defining himself & and the Party - green stuff, Rwanda, binning people for being part of the Nasty Party etc etc...

    If Starmer started doing Starmer Direct talks with groups of the public....

    Cameron didn't just sit there and wait for everyone to decide that since it was a choice between the blank slate and Brown....

    Also, a huge amount of work went into policy development and ensuring that the team as a whole was credible, rather as Blair's team did in the run up to '97. Labour today hasn't even got to the early planning stage on that, let alone reached base camp.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    edited August 2021
    Fascinating poll question here, getting to the heart of the cultural class divide perhaps.

    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1425850191354138625
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,100

    It's a large, draughty, listed building, getting it up to a standard of good insulation would be near-impossible. At best it would require complete gutting of the place, and is not practical whilst we live here even if it could be done without spoiling the building and we could get listed building consent for it.

    But we haven't even really got that far, we're just trying at this stage to get a very preliminary idea of costings. Ouch, ouch!

    I feel that maybe a hybrid heat-pump/oil system would be more practical, especially since we don't need to heat the whole house all the time.
    We bought our air source heat pump (Mitsubishi Ecodan 8.5) new off eBay and got our local plumber to install it. Installed it in 2010 and it's been working fine ever since.

    The biggest issue with heat pumps is you ideally want underfloor heating for them to operate most efficiently, and that involves major upheaval.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,100
    Quincel said:

    Fascinating poll question here, getting to the heart of the cultural class divide perhaps.


    I'm going to check that out in minute detail.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,570

    Hmmmm....

    - Royal in the name
    - Extreme dedication to fitness
    - Regimentation
    - Some quite militaristic themes in some productions....

    Are you sure?
    Who Echappé Wins
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504

    Also, a huge amount of work went into policy development and ensuring that the team as a whole was credible, rather as Blair's team did in the run up to '97. Labour today hasn't even got to the early planning stage on that, let alone reached base camp.
    Part of the problem for Labour is that many supporters believe that Blair didn't stand for anything. That the whole thing was just an image manipulation exercise.

    1997 happened because he created something to vote *for*.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,288
    ydoethur said:

    I wonder if Joe Root is regretting putting India in. They’ve nearly got enough for the innings win already.

    Perhaps he just has a thing about setting himself a challenge ?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    I'm going to check that out in minute detail.
    Yes, I've had to link to the Tweet instead after the image, er...!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,849
    edited August 2021
    Well.

    I don't like what the French did WRT to Covid vaccines, but there's no doubt it's working.

    According to yesterday's data drop (https://www.has-sante.fr/jcms/p_3178533/en/vaccination-dans-le-cadre-de-la-covid-19_), France is now up to 84.6% of adults having had at least one dose of the vaccine.

    Edit to add -
    Numbers best seen here https://vaccinetracker.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/vaccine-tracker.html#national-ref-tab
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,935
    Quincel said:

    Fascinating poll question here, getting to the heart of the cultural class divide perhaps.

    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1425850191354138625

    Not really, the divides are young/old and urban/rural. Car ownership is simply another proxy not at the heart of it.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,151

    You've just defined it.

    And it's not true that he got elected because Labour were holding the ball when it all went wrong - he was going to win anyway. If anything, the global financial crisis helped Brown (ironically).
    Hmm, just looking at the polling. Probably the turning point was the election that never was (or else it was always going to be a short Brown bump for Labour).

    Not much evidence for my position in the polling, as far as I can see, so I'll admit that was wrong.

    As for Cameronism, there's nothing wrong with ideology-free 'let's not be nutters and just try and make sensible choices' (indeed, that describes my preferred party). He did rather spoil it with the whole EU referendum thing though!
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Talking of green policies, we've just had a preliminary estimate for installing a heat pump system for Chez Nabavi.

    Gulp!!!

    All Swedish detached houses have them. We replaced ours a couple of years ago. It was only 12 years old. 15 years seems to be typical lifespan.

    A fiddle to maintain and Top Tip: look out for decibels! The cheap ones are significantly noisier than the pricey ones.

    I think ours (Nibe) was about 55.000 SEK, including labour and removal old pump (IVT).
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,935
    rcs1000 said:

    Well.

    I don't like what the French did WRT to Covid vaccines, but there's no doubt it's working.

    According to yesterday's data drop (https://www.has-sante.fr/jcms/p_3178533/en/vaccination-dans-le-cadre-de-la-covid-19_), France is now up to 84.6% of adults having had at least one dose of the vaccine.

    Edit to add -
    Numbers best seen here https://vaccinetracker.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/vaccine-tracker.html#national-ref-tab

    Quasi effective policy implementation.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    rcs1000 said:

    Well.

    I don't like what the French did WRT to Covid vaccines, but there's no doubt it's working.

    According to yesterday's data drop (https://www.has-sante.fr/jcms/p_3178533/en/vaccination-dans-le-cadre-de-la-covid-19_), France is now up to 84.6% of adults having had at least one dose of the vaccine.

    I posted some months ago that, despite the figures then showing big resistance to getting vaccinated, the French would meekly* fall in line and get jabbed up once the government made it quasi-mandatory. The French like to think of themselves as individualistic rebels, but it's a myth. They grumble and obey.

    *apart from the odd riot, obv, because that's a national hobby
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,570

    Not really, the divides are young/old and urban/rural. Car ownership is simply another proxy not at the heart of it.
    But it does explain why Tory chancellors keep freezing fuel duty.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,334

    Labour don't need to win. It is enough for the Tories to lose.
    That's certainly the way things are working out now.
  • Selebian said:

    So was Cameron, in many ways. He only got elected because Labour cocked up/Labour were holding the ball when it all went wrong (delete as appropriate). He detoxified the Conservatives, but I'd be hard pressed to define Cameronism.

    I still think Starmer has a chance if (a) one of the governments cock-ups really hits normal people (or a post-Covid global economic shitshow happens) and (b) he can get rid of, or at least keep quiet, the loons in Labour. I don't think the combination of those is particularly likely and he might also need a (c) of the Tories defenstrating Johnson and picking someone less electable, as Labour did with Blair -> Brown.
    That's the funny thing about blank canvases.

    My hunch is that a lot of Sunak's popularity is the sense that he's a blank screen that people can project their hopes onto. He will level up Mytown. He will be frugal. He'll be nicer than Johnson.

    Starmer, on the other hand, is suffering from having negatives projected onto him. Some of them fair enough (he does need a more compelling vision than "one step saner than Johnson") some of them making you wonder about those doing the projecting (whatever his faults, he's clearly a plausible PM in a way that Corbyn wasn't and Johnson isn't really).

    For all the whining about his performance, it's still the case that governments lose elections. All the opposition can do is prepare to look sensible when the spotlight falls on them, and that hasn't really happened yet. But there are still a centipede's worth of shoes to drop for the good ship Bozza.

    Being LotO sucks as a job. It's why wise parties exert themselves to avoid going into opposition.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Part of the problem for Labour is that many supporters believe that Blair didn't stand for anything. That the whole thing was just an image manipulation exercise.

    1997 happened because he created something to vote *for*.
    No mainstream party is offering anything to vote ''for''

    Its wall to wall dire warnings, higher taxes, bigger bills and conditional pleasures.

    Who knows, perhaps people may not vote for that.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,926

    Not really, the divides are young/old and urban/rural. Car ownership is simply another proxy not at the heart of it.
    Yes, Chris Curtis ought to know that.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,926

    How do Labour win a GE from here?
    Form a coalition with the LDs and Greens.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,714

    Also, a huge amount of work went into policy development and ensuring that the team as a whole was credible, rather as Blair's team did in the run up to '97. Labour today hasn't even got to the early planning stage on that, let alone reached base camp.
    Almost totally fair, but not quite. Within Labour there is an awful lot of work going on in policy development at the moment; it's yet to see the light of day, though. I'd expect the first outlines of a coherent policy offer to start emerging at Conference in September.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,203

    All Swedish detached houses have them. We replaced ours a couple of years ago. It was only 12 years old. 15 years seems to be typical lifespan.

    A fiddle to maintain and Top Tip: look out for decibels! The cheap ones are significantly noisier than the pricey ones.

    I think ours (Nibe) was about 55.000 SEK, including labour and removal old pump (IVT).
    If everyone in a densely populated area is using an air-source heat pump, it must end up lowering the ambient temperature outside?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,849

    If everyone in a densely populated area is using an air-source heat pump, it must end up lowering the ambient temperature outside?
    Surely it would increase it: it's bringing heat from deep earth to the surface.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,355
    Selebian said:

    I'll have my personal carbon metre in the diamond allotrope, please :wink:
    Now you see I saw that slip and was the bigger man for not jumping on it. Feel like I missed a chance now... In the fullereneness of time I may regret it.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    If everyone in a densely populated area is using an air-source heat pump, it must end up lowering the ambient temperature outside?
    You're not a physicist, are you?
This discussion has been closed.