Is Sunak going to give state pensioners an 8% increase? – politicalbetting.com

Heathener said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Foxy said:

An 8% rise for pensioners, but zero for police and teachers, amongst others? No way is that justifiable, with harsh austerity on its way. It is obscene.

Right here right now there are oceans of free money that can be printed out of the air and handed out to Tory friends donors and target voters. So it isn't "we can't afford" to give Pensioners 8% and a pay rise to the police, teachers, nurses etc etc. Its that the Tories won't.

Straight out of the Dennis Healey manual of public finance. You know, the one which meant the IMF had to enter Britain and bail us out.

I don't even think you were joking.

Actually the IMF did not have to enter Britain and bail us out, even if it was a damn close run thing. And afterwards it turned out the Treasury beancounters had miscounted the beans and there were more left than they'd thought. But the bailout is now part of the British political lexicon.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

The problem is the triple lock was a manifesto commitment and there is some evidence scrapping it would cost the Tories votes.

A poll a few years ago found scrapping it would see over a third of pensioners be less likely to vote Tory
https://www.ftadviser.com/state-pension/2017/04/24/scrapping-triple-lock-would-cost-votes-poll-finds/

It is not all about votes but fairness

You cannot cut the UC uplift and award us pensioners 8% rise

It would be immoral and wrong

And you may be surprised just how many pensioners would accept a smaller award this year

Also, In 2017, i am not sure anybody had global pandemic meaning we were all locked in our homes for the best part of 18 months on their bingo card, when asked if they thought the triple lock was a good policy or not, and what would they do with their vote post such a pandemic if the government suspended it for a year or two.

I made a promise to Mrs U we would be going to New Zealand for a month in 2020.... polling at the time suggested she would leave me if I instead spent that month at home working and not leaving the house even for a date night....

Mr. JohnL, disagree entirely. The financial crisis and recession preceded the General Election of 2010. No black swan occurred during that Parliament.

Heathener said:

TSE makes a really good point about Rishi Sunak. He can't both go on being intensely popular AND fiscally responsible.

The fact is that even with a surge of economic output public finance needs to tighten its belt. At the moment this Conservative Government resembles a wild leftwing Labour one when it comes to public spending.

There's plenty of evidence that Sunak likes to preen himself for his fans although rather less cravenly than Boris Johnson. However, with Boris Johnson by instinct a reckless spendthrift, someone in Government is going to have to rein this in.

I wonder if Rishi will try the same manoeuvre he used for International Aid.

"Of course we could maintain the Triple Lock. It's just that I would have to raise taxes by £3 billion a year. Tell you what, let's have a vote on it..."

Basically, make sure that everyone has to dip their hands in the blood, one way or another.

Yet again my natural pessimism was that it would be the end of the year before we got back to pre COVID levels. Looks like it may be a quarter earlier.

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

Keep the triple lock. The UK state pension is already the worst in the developed world.

The UK state pension comes bottom in a league table of net replacement rates for average earnings at just 28 per cent, according to an influential global pensions report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

This compares with a 59 per cent average across the 36 members of the international organisation of rich democratic countries analysed in its latest report

https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2021/07/19/15/45490449-9803095-_Source_OECD_-a-22_1626706388588.jpg

Including private pensions however the UK has an average pension higher than Spain and the same as in Germany

https://fullfact.org/europe/pensioners-eu-uk/

It won't when it gets to privateer pensioners of my age, when the final salary pensions of our parents era have all but evaporated.

A very, very high percentage of the over 40s have wholly inadequate pension provision. With personal hindsight my advice would be forego the monthly lease payments on the Discovery Sport ( it's killing the planet anyway ) exchange that for a £1000 Fiesta and put the savings into the pension pot.

I am in the "luxurious" position of being able to work until I drop. Without that I would be b*ll*xed, I suspect many others will be too!

Scottish ferries update: The interim CEO brought in to manage the shipyard after it was nationalised, was expected to be there for a couple of months at £2,500 a day. He’s still there two years and £1.3m later… Nice work if you can get it.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/08/11/boss-shipyard-nationalised-nicola-sturgeon-paid-2500-day/

Razedabode said:

Has Scott posted about this yet?

NEW: U.K. exports to the EU were above pre-Brexit levels for a second month in June, half a year after the country severed trade ties with the bloc

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/uk-trade-post-brexit-deal-eu/?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=brexit&utm_source=twitter&cmpid==socialflow-facebook-brexit

Perhaps he is still trying to process that exports of live animals, dairy and farm products were 14% higher in June than a year earlier.

The genuinely troubling thing about those statistics is that trade deficit with the EU remains unacceptably large.

The chancellor’s take: “Today’s figures show that our economy is on the mend”.

Between April and June GDP increased 4.8% as restrictions lifted but it was still 4.4% below (Q4 2019) level.

Bank of England thinks economy will return to pre-crisis size by the end of this year.

https://twitter.com/ITVJoel/status/1425704829180071936/photo/1


"And I will now cut the amount by which pensions would rise based on these figures..."

DavidL said:

FFS. These ferries are starting to make the Parliament building and the trams look absolute bargains.

Don't forget Covid passports...

French restaurants are turning away Scottish tourists because they fail to recognise Scotland’s Covid vaccination certificates, says a former MSP.

Cara Hilton, who works for the food bank charity The Trussell Trust, said NHS Scotland’s proof of vaccine documents were being rejected because — unlike the English and Welsh versions — they do not contain a pixellated QR code.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/covid-in-scotland-non-for-scottish-vaccine-proof-but-oui-for-english-and-welsh-qx38ls8jc

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

The problem is the triple lock was a manifesto commitment and there is some evidence scrapping it would cost the Tories votes.

A poll a few years ago found scrapping it would see over a third of pensioners be less likely to vote Tory
https://www.ftadviser.com/state-pension/2017/04/24/scrapping-triple-lock-would-cost-votes-poll-finds/

It is not all about votes but fairness

You cannot cut the UC uplift and award us pensioners 8% rise

It would be immoral and wrong

And you may be surprised just how many pensioners would accept a smaller award this year

There needs to be fairness with respect to what was promised.

We can all see that the intention was to keep pensioners up with inflation or earnings, whichever higher (the fixed - 2.5%? - increase is a bit more arbitrary, but presumably a supposedly afforable escalator to ensure pensions increase long term). What's happening this year is clearly a distortion. Ignoring earnings is not fair either. The obvious thing seems to be to look at earnings this year compared to 2019, work out the equivalent annual change (allowing for compounding) and then apply that this year and backdated last year. So if it turns out that the equivalent annual figure was 3% (probably not, but if it was) then pensioners get 3% this year (or inflation, if higher) and a backdated 3% on last year too (well, the difference between that and what they actually got).

It will annoy some, but among my limited contacts in pensioner age groups, that would be seen as acceptable and fair. Who, realistically, is going to attack on this. Starmer is going to champion 8% for pensioners while younger working people are still a bit screwed? Really? The LDs? They can be reminded - if anyone is even listening - that they've reversed promises before that were seen to cost too much.

The other, defensible, approach is to say that state pensions are too low. 8% is an aberration, but we're going to go with it and improve the lot of state pensioners now and into the future, perhaps counteracting that with NI on pensioner income. Also not reduce (at the least) UC. But that also requires a plan on how to pay for that.

HYUFD said:

The problem is the triple lock was a manifesto commitment and there is some evidence scrapping it would cost the Tories votes.

A poll a few years ago found scrapping it would see over a third of pensioners be less likely to vote Tory
https://www.ftadviser.com/state-pension/2017/04/24/scrapping-triple-lock-would-cost-votes-poll-finds/

It would be absurd not to ditch this commititment in such exceptional circumstances, Hyufd, but although the likes of OGH and myself would accept that with equanimity I am not sure how typical we are.

Scott_xP said:

DavidL said:

FFS. These ferries are starting to make the Parliament building and the trams look absolute bargains.

Don't forget Covid passports...

French restaurants are turning away Scottish tourists because they fail to recognise Scotland’s Covid vaccination certificates, says a former MSP.

Cara Hilton, who works for the food bank charity The Trussell Trust, said NHS Scotland’s proof of vaccine documents were being rejected because — unlike the English and Welsh versions — they do not contain a pixellated QR code.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/covid-in-scotland-non-for-scottish-vaccine-proof-but-oui-for-english-and-welsh-qx38ls8jc

Seems like this will be the next big “scandal” - could have been better if they focused on digital infrastructure and proof of vaccination rather than blue envelopes

Peter_the_Punter said:

HYUFD said:

The problem is the triple lock was a manifesto commitment and there is some evidence scrapping it would cost the Tories votes.

A poll a few years ago found scrapping it would see over a third of pensioners be less likely to vote Tory
https://www.ftadviser.com/state-pension/2017/04/24/scrapping-triple-lock-would-cost-votes-poll-finds/

It would be absurd not to ditch this commititment in such exceptional circumstances, Hyufd, but although the likes of OGH and myself would accept that with equanimity I am not sure how typical we are.

Especially if combined with a rise in the personal allowance. Problem is that there are some OAP's, as on this board, who are reasonably comfortable, there are still other who are not.
I suspect though, that it's those in 'our' group ...... not OGH, PtP & myself, obviously, ...... who would shout loudest, while the least well off would accept it as a necessity, 'to help our country'.

Scott_xP said:

CarlottaVance said:

Pulls no punches:

"Fuck it up, but make it Scottish" propelled the SNP into Government.

"Fuck it up, but make it Brexit" propelled BoZo into Number 10

Neither has a trajectory that ends well...

http://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-economy-grows-by-48-in-second-quarter-as-post-lockdown-reopening-drives-spending-spree-12379320

Mr. xP, false or, at least, incomplete.

Loathing of the far left Corbyn was the Conservative's greatest asset last time.

Scott_xP said:

CarlottaVance said:

Pulls no punches:

"Fuck it up, but make it Scottish" propelled the SNP into Government.

"Fuck it up, but make it Brexit" propelled BoZo into Number 10

Neither has a trajectory that ends well...

Indeed, it ends in repeated majorities for both of them.

Rishi Sunak declines to say three times whether he has ambitions for the Conservative Party leadership

‘What I’m focused on is the recovery, the economy. The plan that I put in place, our plan for jobs, is working’ https://twitter.com/itvnewspolitics/status/1425722873784807427

Peter_the_Punter said:

HYUFD said:

The problem is the triple lock was a manifesto commitment and there is some evidence scrapping it would cost the Tories votes.

A poll a few years ago found scrapping it would see over a third of pensioners be less likely to vote Tory
https://www.ftadviser.com/state-pension/2017/04/24/scrapping-triple-lock-would-cost-votes-poll-finds/

It would be absurd not to ditch this commititment in such exceptional circumstances, Hyufd, but although the likes of OGH and myself would accept that with equanimity I am not sure how typical we are.

Labour will weaponise it if they had any sense. It's a straightforward tory lie that hits them where it hurts.

Sandpit said:

What policies are they expecting to come out of the summit, other than the usual “We will continue to fly but you shouldn’t, the West should ‘decarbonise’ but China and India won’t, and we will make the cost of living much higher for most people”?

As I said yesterday, this should be right at the top of the PM’s risk register of things that could sink him quickly.

PM said to be wary not only of a Tory revolt on net zero but bad headlines... the risk that the only thing the average person sees of COP is ‘Oh look, a lot of people got on airplanes and flew to the UK to talk about climate change, and they brought a lot of COVID with them'
https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1425731461924130816

Scott_xP said:

Sandpit said:

What policies are they expecting to come out of the summit, other than the usual “We will continue to fly but you shouldn’t, the West should ‘decarbonise’ but China and India won’t, and we will make the cost of living much higher for most people”?

As I said yesterday, this should be right at the top of the PM’s risk register of things that could sink him quickly.

PM said to be wary not only of a Tory revolt on net zero but bad headlines... the risk that the only thing the average person sees of COP is ‘Oh look, a lot of people got on airplanes and flew to the UK to talk about climate change, and they brought a lot of COVID with them'
https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1425731461924130816

And, to be fair, he's right to be. Look what appeared to happen in Cornwall after the G7.

Chancellor Rishi Sunak has promised that the UK will "absolutely" not return to austerity as new figures show the economy grew by 4.8% in the second quarter of the year.

More on this story here: https://trib.al/4jbocrp https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1425734332296142850/video/1


"I will now cut the pension increase for this year..."

Sandpit said:

noneoftheabove said:

DavidL said:

No, the pension will not be increased by 8%, this would be totally unacceptable when there are going to be a raft of industrial disputes across the public sector where staff are being offered a small fraction of that or nothing at all. Whilst I take @StuartDickson's point that our state pension is low compared to many other countries fixing this simply cannot be the priority at the moment. I would expect an increase of 3-4%, generous but not ridiculous.

Several Tories very confident in their government doing the right and sensible thing on the triple lock. Hope they are correct but not sure where that confidence comes from.

Because even the blue-rinse end of the membership know that it’s not the right thing to do, when the numbers come from a statistical quirk associated with a pandemic. It would also go down like the proverbial cup of cold sick in the Red Wall seats if accompanied by tax rises on working people.

They’ll likely find a way to fudge the average earnings figures, to take out the pandemic factor and leave a more reasonable number.

That all makes sense but why has it then be portrayed in the press as Boris wants to keep the triple lock manifesto commitment vs Sunak trying to do as you suggest? Is that down to Sunak campaigning to be the next leader (if so, why does the PM allow it)? If it is such an obvious slam dunk decision, why don't they make it clear now rather than allow the stories of division to fester? Leaving it late will also lead to pensioners expecting 8% and getting 3%, they could have announced a technical adjustment for the coming year months ago and it would have been less of an issue as the uplift was unknown and everyone was focussed on covid.

I think there is disagreement and no decision has been made yet, and therefore could go either way.

noneoftheabove said:

Sandpit said:

noneoftheabove said:

DavidL said:

No, the pension will not be increased by 8%, this would be totally unacceptable when there are going to be a raft of industrial disputes across the public sector where staff are being offered a small fraction of that or nothing at all. Whilst I take @StuartDickson's point that our state pension is low compared to many other countries fixing this simply cannot be the priority at the moment. I would expect an increase of 3-4%, generous but not ridiculous.

Several Tories very confident in their government doing the right and sensible thing on the triple lock. Hope they are correct but not sure where that confidence comes from.

Because even the blue-rinse end of the membership know that it’s not the right thing to do, when the numbers come from a statistical quirk associated with a pandemic. It would also go down like the proverbial cup of cold sick in the Red Wall seats if accompanied by tax rises on working people.

They’ll likely find a way to fudge the average earnings figures, to take out the pandemic factor and leave a more reasonable number.

That all makes sense but why has it then be portrayed in the press as Boris wants to keep the triple lock manifesto commitment vs Sunak trying to do as you suggest? Is that down to Sunak campaigning to be the next leader (if so, why does the PM allow it)? If it is such an obvious slam dunk decision, why don't they make it clear now rather than allow the stories of division to fester?

I think there is disagreement and no decision has been made yet, and therefore could go either way.

It’s all political positioning at this point, until the actual numbers and proposals come out - when there will be a cabinet meeting and a united front.

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

Keep the triple lock. The UK state pension is already the worst in the developed world.

The UK state pension comes bottom in a league table of net replacement rates for average earnings at just 28 per cent, according to an influential global pensions report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

This compares with a 59 per cent average across the 36 members of the international organisation of rich democratic countries analysed in its latest report

https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2021/07/19/15/45490449-9803095-_Source_OECD_-a-22_1626706388588.jpg

Including private pensions however the UK has an average pension higher than Spain and the same as in Germany

https://fullfact.org/europe/pensioners-eu-uk/

It won't when it gets to privateer pensioners of my age, when the final salary pensions of our parents era have all but evaporated.

A very, very high percentage of the over 40s have wholly inadequate pension provision. With personal hindsight my advice would be forego the monthly lease payments on the Discovery Sport ( it's killing the planet anyway ) exchange that for a £1000 Fiesta and put the savings into the pension pot.

I am in the "luxurious" position of being able to work until I drop. Without that I would be b*ll*xed, I suspect many others will be too!

Actually the UK has amongst the highest enrolled in workplace pensions in Europe now, which will make it easier for future generations.

France however has far fewer with private pensions and very costly state pensions Macron wants to cut

OldKingCole said:

Scott_xP said:

Sandpit said:

What policies are they expecting to come out of the summit, other than the usual “We will continue to fly but you shouldn’t, the West should ‘decarbonise’ but China and India won’t, and we will make the cost of living much higher for most people”?

As I said yesterday, this should be right at the top of the PM’s risk register of things that could sink him quickly.

PM said to be wary not only of a Tory revolt on net zero but bad headlines... the risk that the only thing the average person sees of COP is ‘Oh look, a lot of people got on airplanes and flew to the UK to talk about climate change, and they brought a lot of COVID with them'
https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1425731461924130816

And, to be fair, he's right to be. Look what appeared to happen in Cornwall after the G7.

On recent approval ratings versus Rishi, they all fell even more in love with Boris!

Dura_Ace said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

HYUFD said:

The problem is the triple lock was a manifesto commitment and there is some evidence scrapping it would cost the Tories votes.

A poll a few years ago found scrapping it would see over a third of pensioners be less likely to vote Tory
https://www.ftadviser.com/state-pension/2017/04/24/scrapping-triple-lock-would-cost-votes-poll-finds/

It would be absurd not to ditch this commititment in such exceptional circumstances, Hyufd, but although the likes of OGH and myself would accept that with equanimity I am not sure how typical we are.

Labour will weaponise it if they had any sense. It's a straightforward tory lie that hits them where it hurts.

SNP + SGP manifesto commitment to indyref2, confirmed by GEs at Holyrood and Westminster: HYUFD "Who cares? We're Tories and hate everyone."

Tory manifexto commitment to TL: HYUFD *runs around in ever decreasing circles at the thought of losing his core vote*

Scott_xP said:

Net Zero dreams hit a fresh bump in the road as a groundbreaking study warns "blue hydrogen" could be a fifth more polluting than fossil fuels.

The controversial replacement for gas to heat our homes is a key plank of PM's plan to go carbon neutral.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/15846010/net-zero-blue-hydrogen-polluting-natural-gas/

I had to look this up because the article had no actual facts and I was confused as to what blue hydrogen was.

So to those of you here who have the appropriate knowledge can someone explain why on earth you would want to produce hydrogen from methane for environmental reasons. I can see it might be the way to produce it commercially, but no reason to produce it for environmental reasons as you still have to do carbon capture. Might as well burn any old crap and do carbon capture in that case.

Electrolysis of water from renewable energy makes sense (environmentally if not economically) as there is no carbon emission.

Is it a case of politicians just hearing the word that burning Hydrogen is carbon free and don't think about any carbon emitted in producing it?

Still interesting to look at how the Labour vote has become more Remain over time...
(excluding those who didn't vote)

Lab 2010 voters: Remain 59 / Leave 41
Lab 2015 voters: 65/35
Lab 2017 voters: 71/29
Lab 2019 voters: 77/23

https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1425512711677427717?s=20

ydoethur said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Mexicanpete said:

Selebian said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

The problem is the triple lock was a manifesto commitment and there is some evidence scrapping it would cost the Tories votes.

A poll a few years ago found scrapping it would see over a third of pensioners be less likely to vote Tory
https://www.ftadviser.com/state-pension/2017/04/24/scrapping-triple-lock-would-cost-votes-poll-finds/

It is not all about votes but fairness

You cannot cut the UC uplift and award us pensioners 8% rise

It would be immoral and wrong

And you may be surprised just how many pensioners would accept a smaller award this year

There needs to be fairness with respect to what was promised.

We can all see that the intention was to keep pensioners up with inflation or earnings, whichever higher (the fixed - 2.5%? - increase is a bit more arbitrary, but presumably a supposedly afforable escalator to ensure pensions increase long term). What's happening this year is clearly a distortion. Ignoring earnings is not fair either. The obvious thing seems to be to look at earnings this year compared to 2019, work out the equivalent annual change (allowing for compounding) and then apply that this year and backdated last year. So if it turns out that the equivalent annual figure was 3% (probably not, but if it was) then pensioners get 3% this year (or inflation, if higher) and a backdated 3% on last year too (well, the difference between that and what they actually got).

It will annoy some, but among my limited contacts in pensioner age groups, that would be seen as acceptable and fair. Who, realistically, is going to attack on this. Starmer is going to champion 8% for pensioners while younger working people are still a bit screwed? Really? The LDs? They can be reminded - if anyone is even listening - that they've reversed promises before that were seen to cost too much.

The other, defensible, approach is to say that state pensions are too low. 8% is an aberration, but we're going to go with it and improve the lot of state pensioners now and into the future, perhaps counteracting that with NI on pensioner income. Also not reduce (at the least) UC. But that also requires a plan on how to pay for that.

I am not sure your final statement is required, for the moment at least.

By filling pockets so one can spend like Viv Nicholson would appear to have no downside. As a nation we spend ourselves into economic growth. When I have panicked, and suggested this might be inflationary, Philip Thompson has told me inflation is good, and the debt reduces by natural attrition. Actually, maybe that is the plan.

Moderate inflation is good, and the debt reduces by natural attrition.

High inflation is terrible. Deflation is terrible. Moderate inflation is the sweet spot.

Well, it certainly would be for us given the huge debt overhang we have.

Well precisely.

Its a real problem and real risk, as the Japanese have been struggling with for the past thirty years and now we've been struggling with it for the past decade. I strongly suspect that if it wasn't for QE and emergency low interest rates, we would have entered a deflationary spiral which would have been an unmitigated disaster for us as a nation.

Those obsessing about inflation using 1970s style thinking alone are like people seeking to fight wars by panicking over how we'll be dealing with trench warfare. The world has moved on, economics has moved on, deflation is a very real problem to be avoided.

CarlottaVance said:

Still interesting to look at how the Labour vote has become more Remain over time...
(excluding those who didn't vote)

Lab 2010 voters: Remain 59 / Leave 41
Lab 2015 voters: 65/35
Lab 2017 voters: 71/29
Lab 2019 voters: 77/23

https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1425512711677427717?s=20

Yes, that's intriguing. There are two more variables in the mix, under-40 age and higher education, both of which have bewcome very strongly correlated with voting Labour, and which were also very strongly linked to voting Remain. Which is the chicken and which the egg?

CorrectHorseBattery said:

malcolmg said:

Fishing said:

I'm not sure it'll be as damaging as people think, politically speaking, just because it's so difficult to justify an 8% increase for the old at a time when the young are getting completely screwed.

The Triple Lock, like the FTPA and so much else the Heir to Blair did is long overdue for the scrapheap.

The young are just greedy whiney no marks. Get out and work like the pensioners did and earn your own money. A days work would be too much for most of the pampered jessies. Back in the day when men were men , we did not plot how to rob our granny , we got out there and worked our socks off, no handed it on a plate in those days.

I've worked every day since I came out of uni and I've contributed thousands and thousands of Pounds in tax. I would like to choose to not spend that on you.

Malcolm is entitled to the pension pot he set aside, no more and no less.

For the state pension, that's nothing. Voting to transfer ever more money to state pensions is just politics not an entitlement, his generation set aside nothing for their retirement.

NickPalmer said:

CarlottaVance said:

Still interesting to look at how the Labour vote has become more Remain over time...
(excluding those who didn't vote)

Lab 2010 voters: Remain 59 / Leave 41
Lab 2015 voters: 65/35
Lab 2017 voters: 71/29
Lab 2019 voters: 77/23

https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1425512711677427717?s=20

Yes, that's intriguing. There are two more variables in the mix, under-40 age and higher education, both of which have bewcome very strongly correlated with voting Labour, and which were also very strongly linked to voting Remain. Which is the chicken and which the egg?

It should be noted Cameron won graduates in 2010 and 2015 and Brown appealed more to the working class (more Leave) than Ed Miliband, Corbyn and Starmer did so I think Brexit is a factor but not the only one

BlancheLivermore said:

Sunak needs to be creative.. How about freezing all public sector pay, pensions and benefits this year, but give everyone an 8% Covid booster cheque - effectively an extra month's payment. It would be expensive this year, but would keep the base expense at last year's level from which to give permanent pay rises next year.

Now expecting to be given lots of good reasons why this is a stupid idea!

I see the argument, but big-bang solutions are politically appealing but tend to be disruptive. The suspension of stamp duty turned out to be an expensive mistake IMO - main beneficiaries were existing house owners (who put up prices to compensate) and it produced a bubble of frantic sales which is now poised to deflate.

I think there are just two reasonable solutions - change to a double lock and take the electoral hit, or give them the raise but put up taxes/NI. The latter could in theory be wrapped into the social care plan which has been floating around.

kjh said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

Keep the triple lock. The UK state pension is already the worst in the developed world.

The UK state pension comes bottom in a league table of net replacement rates for average earnings at just 28 per cent, according to an influential global pensions report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

This compares with a 59 per cent average across the 36 members of the international organisation of rich democratic countries analysed in its latest report

https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2021/07/19/15/45490449-9803095-_Source_OECD_-a-22_1626706388588.jpg

Including private pensions however the UK has an average pension higher than Spain and the same as in Germany

https://fullfact.org/europe/pensioners-eu-uk/

It won't when it gets to privateer pensioners of my age, when the final salary pensions of our parents era have all but evaporated.

A very, very high percentage of the over 40s have wholly inadequate pension provision. With personal hindsight my advice would be forego the monthly lease payments on the Discovery Sport ( it's killing the planet anyway ) exchange that for a £1000 Fiesta and put the savings into the pension pot.

I am in the "luxurious" position of being able to work until I drop. Without that I would be b*ll*xed, I suspect many others will be too!

Actually the UK has amongst the highest enrolled in workplace pensions in Europe now, which will make it easier for future generations.

France however has far fewer with private pensions and very costly state pensions Macron wants to cut

But a huge number of those workplace pensions are going to be worthless. The size of the pot you need to retire on is out of the reach of all these new schemes the Govt has encouraged. people are going to be very disappointed.

Given most pensioners own their own property and have no mortgage or rent to pay they don't need vast pensions, just enough to live on.

We will also be far better placed than most of Europe to cope as we have far higher workplace pension enrolment than they do and as Macron starts to cut the vast state pension bill in France

Sandpit said:

Scott_xP said:

Sandpit said:

What policies are they expecting to come out of the summit, other than the usual “We will continue to fly but you shouldn’t, the West should ‘decarbonise’ but China and India won’t, and we will make the cost of living much higher for most people”?

As I said yesterday, this should be right at the top of the PM’s risk register of things that could sink him quickly.

PM said to be wary not only of a Tory revolt on net zero but bad headlines... the risk that the only thing the average person sees of COP is ‘Oh look, a lot of people got on airplanes and flew to the UK to talk about climate change, and they brought a lot of COVID with them'
https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1425731461924130816

No sh!t, Sherlock. I’ve been saying every day this week that if IT’S A MASSIVE F***ING EMERGENCY, sending a hundred planes to a physical summit is just about the worst way *they* can demonstrate they don’t intend to change their own behaviours, while they expect *us* to massively change ours.

Get the COP26 summit sponsored by Cisco, and do the whole thing remotely on Webex.

See also, the determination of governments to see people spending hours per day commuting. Companies should be incentivised to stop people travelling every day, for environmental reasons - but instead the government sees the reduction in revenue from train operators and coffee shops.

I'm seeing the planning at close hand as we've got a stand at the event. On the one hand a lot is clearly being made up on the wing - for example, there is a web page with 9 icons for exhibitors (different aspects - furniture, design, food etc.), 8 of which were inoperative when I last looked - you could book a stand (and had precisely 3 days to get your application in) but details of what happened then were tbc. And yes, flying people from around the world to tel lus to fly less isn't an ideal look.

On the other hand, the vaccination thing is certainly being taken seriously. The UN is pulling out all the stops to ensure that every single delegate is double-vaccinated, jumping any national queue to get priority (and given that a typical country will send maybe 10-20 people that's not a big deal). They are flatly refusing to confirm the outer Green Zone, which if it goes ahead will have a carneval of NGOs doing all kinds of exhibits (party conference meets Edinburgh fringe), and it may well be that all that happens is vaccinated delegates and a tight ring of expensive Blue Zone stands with vaccinated staff. As super-spreader events go it may be significantly less than some of the other recent big events.

HYUFD said:

NickPalmer said:

CarlottaVance said:

Still interesting to look at how the Labour vote has become more Remain over time...
(excluding those who didn't vote)

Lab 2010 voters: Remain 59 / Leave 41
Lab 2015 voters: 65/35
Lab 2017 voters: 71/29
Lab 2019 voters: 77/23

https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1425512711677427717?s=20

Yes, that's intriguing. There are two more variables in the mix, under-40 age and higher education, both of which have bewcome very strongly correlated with voting Labour, and which were also very strongly linked to voting Remain. Which is the chicken and which the egg?

It should be noted Cameron won graduates in 2010 and 2015 and Brown appealed more to the working class (more Leave) than Ed Miliband, Corbyn and Starmer did so I think Brexit is a factor but not the only one

Ok genuine question. I thought we had secret ballots in this country. I know that you can in fact identify who voted on each slip as there is a record taken, but I assumed it is not looked at. So how do we 'know' that Cameron won graduates in 2010 and 2015 etc? Is this just from polling, or from actual voting data? As I said - genuine question.

StuartDickson said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

StuartDickson said:

Fishing said:

I'm not sure it'll be as damaging as people think, politically speaking, just because it's so difficult to justify an 8% increase for the old at a time when the young are getting completely screwed.

The Triple Lock, like the FTPA and so much else the Heir to Blair did is long overdue for the scrapheap.

This is the problem with Tories: you are so inconsistent. Johnson has ditched pretty much everything Cameron, Major and Thatcher ever did. The obvious conclusion is that one day a future Tory PM will ditch everything Johnson does.

The modern iteration of the Tory party:

- English Nationalist, not One Nation
- Revolutionary, not Conservative
- High tax/high debt, not Friedman
- State control, not free market
- Social engineering, not conservatism
- Nasty, not paternal
- Reactive, not confident
- Populist, not principled
- Clown, not competence
- Degenerate, not moral
- Cash for pals, not good governance
- Fiscal spaffing, not fiscal moderation
- Fuck business, not pro business
- Proroguing parliament, not the rule of law
- Lying to the monarch, not respecting institutions
- Authoritarian, not liberal
- Corruption, not ethics

The only constant is the blue rosettes.

The Conservative Party used to be one that I could disagree with but respect as a British institution. That party is gone and the thing that has replaced it has no ideology, which is really sad, to be honest.

According to party loyalist HYUFD it has transmogrified into the English Nationalist Party. The honest thing to do would be to change the name, as that more accurately reflects the nature of the organisation. But alas honesty is not one of their core characteristics.

The notion that the Tories are an English Nationalist Party is completely farcical. As much as I would want it to be one, it very clearly isn't.

If the Tories were then they'd be pushing for a second Scottish independence referendum and pushing for a Yes vote in that. Is that happening? I don't think so.

StuartDickson said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

StuartDickson said:

Fishing said:

I'm not sure it'll be as damaging as people think, politically speaking, just because it's so difficult to justify an 8% increase for the old at a time when the young are getting completely screwed.

The Triple Lock, like the FTPA and so much else the Heir to Blair did is long overdue for the scrapheap.

This is the problem with Tories: you are so inconsistent. Johnson has ditched pretty much everything Cameron, Major and Thatcher ever did. The obvious conclusion is that one day a future Tory PM will ditch everything Johnson does.

The modern iteration of the Tory party:

- English Nationalist, not One Nation
- Revolutionary, not Conservative
- High tax/high debt, not Friedman
- State control, not free market
- Social engineering, not conservatism
- Nasty, not paternal
- Reactive, not confident
- Populist, not principled
- Clown, not competence
- Degenerate, not moral
- Cash for pals, not good governance
- Fiscal spaffing, not fiscal moderation
- Fuck business, not pro business
- Proroguing parliament, not the rule of law
- Lying to the monarch, not respecting institutions
- Authoritarian, not liberal
- Corruption, not ethics

The only constant is the blue rosettes.

The Conservative Party used to be one that I could disagree with but respect as a British institution. That party is gone and the thing that has replaced it has no ideology, which is really sad, to be honest.

According to party loyalist HYUFD it has transmogrified into the English Nationalist Party. The honest thing to do would be to change the name, as that more accurately reflects the nature of the organisation. But alas honesty is not one of their core characteristics.

Rubbish, if that was the case it would be pushing English independence and the end of the Union, like the English Democrats used to do, not refusing Scots an indyref2.

It would also be keeping EVEL

kjh said:

HYUFD said:

kjh said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

Keep the triple lock. The UK state pension is already the worst in the developed world.

The UK state pension comes bottom in a league table of net replacement rates for average earnings at just 28 per cent, according to an influential global pensions report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

This compares with a 59 per cent average across the 36 members of the international organisation of rich democratic countries analysed in its latest report

https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2021/07/19/15/45490449-9803095-_Source_OECD_-a-22_1626706388588.jpg

Including private pensions however the UK has an average pension higher than Spain and the same as in Germany

https://fullfact.org/europe/pensioners-eu-uk/

It won't when it gets to privateer pensioners of my age, when the final salary pensions of our parents era have all but evaporated.

A very, very high percentage of the over 40s have wholly inadequate pension provision. With personal hindsight my advice would be forego the monthly lease payments on the Discovery Sport ( it's killing the planet anyway ) exchange that for a £1000 Fiesta and put the savings into the pension pot.

I am in the "luxurious" position of being able to work until I drop. Without that I would be b*ll*xed, I suspect many others will be too!

Actually the UK has amongst the highest enrolled in workplace pensions in Europe now, which will make it easier for future generations.

France however has far fewer with private pensions and very costly state pensions Macron wants to cut

But a huge number of those workplace pensions are going to be worthless. The size of the pot you need to retire on is out of the reach of all these new schemes the Govt has encouraged. people are going to be very disappointed.

Given most pensioners own their own property and have no mortgage or rent to pay they don't need vast pensions, just enough to live on.

We will also be far better placed than most of Europe to cope as we have far higher workplace pension enrolment than they do and as Macron starts to cut the vast state pension bill in France

LOL. Have you any idea what these new workplace pensions will give you to live on?

I wasn't making any comparison with France. I was just pointing out that most of these new pensions will be next to worthless, and I don't mean a little less than they are currently getting so ok because they don't have a mortgage to pay, but actually next to worthless. Many will only be paying out the equivalent of the low tens of pounds a week.

Also while I think the figure is currently 72% of pensioners owning their own home expect that figure to drop over the next few decades as just as the figure for home ownership is.

Pagan2 said:

kjh said:

HYUFD said:

kjh said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

Keep the triple lock. The UK state pension is already the worst in the developed world.

The UK state pension comes bottom in a league table of net replacement rates for average earnings at just 28 per cent, according to an influential global pensions report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

This compares with a 59 per cent average across the 36 members of the international organisation of rich democratic countries analysed in its latest report

https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2021/07/19/15/45490449-9803095-_Source_OECD_-a-22_1626706388588.jpg

Including private pensions however the UK has an average pension higher than Spain and the same as in Germany

https://fullfact.org/europe/pensioners-eu-uk/

It won't when it gets to privateer pensioners of my age, when the final salary pensions of our parents era have all but evaporated.

A very, very high percentage of the over 40s have wholly inadequate pension provision. With personal hindsight my advice would be forego the monthly lease payments on the Discovery Sport ( it's killing the planet anyway ) exchange that for a £1000 Fiesta and put the savings into the pension pot.

I am in the "luxurious" position of being able to work until I drop. Without that I would be b*ll*xed, I suspect many others will be too!

Actually the UK has amongst the highest enrolled in workplace pensions in Europe now, which will make it easier for future generations.

France however has far fewer with private pensions and very costly state pensions Macron wants to cut

But a huge number of those workplace pensions are going to be worthless. The size of the pot you need to retire on is out of the reach of all these new schemes the Govt has encouraged. people are going to be very disappointed.

Given most pensioners own their own property and have no mortgage or rent to pay they don't need vast pensions, just enough to live on.

We will also be far better placed than most of Europe to cope as we have far higher workplace pension enrolment than they do and as Macron starts to cut the vast state pension bill in France

LOL. Have you any idea what these new workplace pensions will give you to live on?

I wasn't making any comparison with France. I was just pointing out that most of these new pensions will be next to worthless, and I don't mean a little less than they are currently getting so ok because they don't have a mortgage to pay, but actually next to worthless. Many will only be paying out the equivalent of the low tens of pounds a week.

Also while I think the figure is currently 72% of pensioners owning their own home expect that figure to drop over the next few decades as just as the figure for home ownership is.

By 40 most own their own home still and that percentage expands every decade after.

You can also provide targeted support through Pension credit etc to pensioners who are not home owners, the state pension however goes to all pensioners, including home owners

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

Prince Andrew: Refusal to talk to Epstein investigators ‘straining relations between UK and America’

… the lack of information-sharing had caused diplomatic strain, with US law enforcement and diplomats raising the matter with their British counterparts.

The lack of cooperation now spans three years of reported attempts by the US authorities to gather facts from the royal who, in a statement from 2019, said he would be willing to help US law-enforcement with investigations. However, in January last year, Manhattan US attorney Geoffrey Berman said the country’s authorities had received “zero cooperation” from the prince…

Of particular interest to the US authorities is how money transfers may be linked to the movement of young women and girls. The various interested bodies, including the FBI, believe these may offer insights into ongoing organised criminal operations.

The authorities’ interests are understood to include multiple trips by the royal to Epstein’s Caribbean island, Little St James, as well as Florida and New York. Last year, prosecutors in the US Virgin Islands, which includes Little St James, alleged Mr Epstein abused hundreds of young women and girls up until 2018.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/prince-andrew-america-epstein-probes-cooperation-b1900854.html?amp

Given the US refuse to hand over Anne Sacoolas tough. Biden is hardly doing a great deal to defend international security at the moment anyway nor has he or the Democrats in Congress ever been that interested in prioritising a UK trade deal either.

Perhaps they could also look a bit more into Bill Clinton and Bill Gates' links to Epstein before lecturing us

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/08/18/photos-allegedly-show-bill-clinton-receiving-massage-from-jeffrey-epstein-accuser/

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/12/business/jeffrey-epstein-bill-gates.html

This Windsor scandal is clearly touching a raw Tory nerve. Hardly news. I expect a veritable infestation of squirrels in the coming months and years. Poor old Harry and Meghan.

Shame on you HY. If the Tories had an ounce of decency they would be encouraging the coward prince to get on a trans-Atlantic plane and face the charges, as he promised to do in 2019.

Almost as much whataboutery as an Old Firm supporters' spat.

kjh said:

HYUFD said:

kjh said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

Keep the triple lock. The UK state pension is already the worst in the developed world.

The UK state pension comes bottom in a league table of net replacement rates for average earnings at just 28 per cent, according to an influential global pensions report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

This compares with a 59 per cent average across the 36 members of the international organisation of rich democratic countries analysed in its latest report

https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2021/07/19/15/45490449-9803095-_Source_OECD_-a-22_1626706388588.jpg

Including private pensions however the UK has an average pension higher than Spain and the same as in Germany

https://fullfact.org/europe/pensioners-eu-uk/

It won't when it gets to privateer pensioners of my age, when the final salary pensions of our parents era have all but evaporated.

A very, very high percentage of the over 40s have wholly inadequate pension provision. With personal hindsight my advice would be forego the monthly lease payments on the Discovery Sport ( it's killing the planet anyway ) exchange that for a £1000 Fiesta and put the savings into the pension pot.

I am in the "luxurious" position of being able to work until I drop. Without that I would be b*ll*xed, I suspect many others will be too!

Actually the UK has amongst the highest enrolled in workplace pensions in Europe now, which will make it easier for future generations.

France however has far fewer with private pensions and very costly state pensions Macron wants to cut

But a huge number of those workplace pensions are going to be worthless. The size of the pot you need to retire on is out of the reach of all these new schemes the Govt has encouraged. people are going to be very disappointed.

Given most pensioners own their own property and have no mortgage or rent to pay they don't need vast pensions, just enough to live on.

We will also be far better placed than most of Europe to cope as we have far higher workplace pension enrolment than they do and as Macron starts to cut the vast state pension bill in France

LOL. Have you any idea what these new workplace pensions will give you to live on?

I wasn't making any comparison with France. I was just pointing out that most of these new pensions will be next to worthless, and I don't mean a little less than they are currently getting so ok because they don't have a mortgage to pay, but actually next to worthless. Many will only be paying out the equivalent of the low tens of pounds a week.

Well you should have been making a comparison with France as it is the huge deficit France has from its vast state pensions bill that is forcing Macron to make cuts while France is far behind us on the number enrolled in workplace pensions.

Workplace pensions come on top of the state pension of course and most pensioners have no mortgage, no rent to pay and no commute and train fares to pay either