Sage central estimate is that not delaying would have caused 250k cases per day.
So a small unlocking stage in Summer, with 80% of adults had a first vaccination and over half double, was going to cause Britain to hit a case rate more than double the highest rate yet seen anywhere in the world ever.
Frankly, Sage, Johnson, and all these gobshites can go fuck themselves.
The Warwick model details released this evening say they expect 100k cases on the 21st of June.
Let's say the current 1m+ tests a day are only picking up 50% of cases. Does anyone expect 50k positive tests in 7 days time?
How are they not embarassed to go to print with this stuff?
It's a joke. These are the data models driving the decision making process. I don't understand how these scientists haven't been disowned. It's complete garbage.
There must be trials at the end of this. And I would put the scientists in the dock, first. Before the politicians
From Anthony "gain of function" Fauci to Richard "no conflict of interest" Horton, from Peter "we didn't have any bats!" Daszak, to all the fucked up academic modellers and nutters, right down to Susan "hey I'm a commie!" Michie, who wants us locked down forever
This cannot stand. They must be judged. And if they are found wanting, they must pay
What about Jonathan “My mate in Hong Kong (chuckle) said masks were worse than useless” Van Tam.
Oh God, him too. Definitely
I'd chuck in Whitty and Vallance too. That Jenny Harries has been poor also. I actually can't think of any that have come out with a shred of credibility.
Final dotted line is June 21st unlocking date, and Warwick model is at 100k. Cuckoo.
It would be more interesting to look at the hospital admissions data on the second row, as those can more easily be tested. I could imagine testing picking up far less than 50%, especially as more and more infections become asymptomatic.
The ONS picks up everything with random sampling. It would need a doubling rate of every 2 days from a quick calculation to get anywhere near 100k per day. None of the indicators show anything like that. The daily cases are showing a doubling period of about 13 days right now and the real time data from Professor Tim Spector shows symptomatic COVID growing at about 2% per day or around a 35 day doubling time.
It's laughable and this model is included in the decision making process. It should be dismissed out of hand as ridiculous and yet serious scientists are presenting it as credible.
Thanks, I've not looked at the ONS surveillance data in ages.
Given that the symptoms of delta variant resemble having a cold am I the only one to wonder what the cold virus originated as ?
Aren’t the symptoms very similar to the other coronavirus variants? Which are definitely different from the cold.
Delta variant symptoms include runny nose and sore throat. Those were not major symptoms previously.
another_richard you're not the only one to speculate that the common cold began as a Covid style coronavirus - nor that Covid19 will end up as another common cold strain once we all have immunity to it.
But those aren’t the only symptoms. There are probably a ton of viruses that can result in a runny nose, it doesn’t automatically mean they are related to the cold.
Indeed but a runny nose was not a major symptom of the original Covid19. Indeed it was quite distinctively so, which was part of what suggested early on if you had it you probably had the cold and not Covid.
I wonder if as well as our acquiring immunity (which we all pretty much have for common cold coronaviruses and rhinoviruses) whether Covid is evolving more towards a common cold.
Wouldn't surprise me if 20 years from now Covid is still circulating but we no longer notice it, its just another cold strain.
Anecdotally, I've heard a few people recently say that the had a cold. So maybe not.
Previously, feeling poorly and having a snotty nose was good news, as it meant 'not Covid'. Until today, folk will have still assumed that was the case, and spread their 'cold' instead of self isolating.
The Warwick model details released this evening say they expect 100k cases on the 21st of June.
Let's say the current 1m+ tests a day are only picking up 50% of cases. Does anyone expect 50k positive tests in 7 days time?
How are they not embarassed to go to print with this stuff?
It's a joke. These are the data models driving the decision making process. I don't understand how these scientists haven't been disowned. It's complete garbage.
There must be trials at the end of this. And I would put the scientists in the dock, first. Before the politicians
From Anthony "gain of function" Fauci to Richard "no conflict of interest" Horton, from Peter "we didn't have any bats!" Daszak, to all the fucked up academic modellers and nutters, right down to Susan "hey I'm a commie!" Michie, who wants us locked down forever
This cannot stand. They must be judged. And if they are found wanting, they must pay
What about Jonathan “My mate in Hong Kong (chuckle) said masks were worse than useless” Van Tam.
Oh God, him too. Definitely
I'd chuck in Whitty and Vallance too. That Jenny Harries has been poor also. I actually can't think of any that have come out with a shred of credibility.
Vallance was at the secretive Zoom meeting with Fauci on the 31st January 2020, when, on the day they were expressly told by their virologist, K G Andersen, that the virus looked "potentially engineered", they all somehow came out swinging very hard for ~"natural zoonosis".
Their evidence, amazingly, included a controversial paper in Nature by Fauci's favourite virologist K G Andersen. A man who, two weeks later, got a huge chunk of funding from Fauci, a man who, a year later started frantically deleting his tweets on this subject, and then suddenly vanished altogether
Given that the symptoms of delta variant resemble having a cold am I the only one to wonder what the cold virus originated as ?
Aren’t the symptoms very similar to the other coronavirus variants? Which are definitely different from the cold.
Delta variant symptoms include runny nose and sore throat. Those were not major symptoms previously.
another_richard you're not the only one to speculate that the common cold began as a Covid style coronavirus - nor that Covid19 will end up as another common cold strain once we all have immunity to it.
But those aren’t the only symptoms. There are probably a ton of viruses that can result in a runny nose, it doesn’t automatically mean they are related to the cold.
Indeed but a runny nose was not a major symptom of the original Covid19. Indeed it was quite distinctively so, which was part of what suggested early on if you had it you probably had the cold and not Covid.
I wonder if as well as our acquiring immunity (which we all pretty much have for common cold coronaviruses and rhinoviruses) whether Covid is evolving more towards a common cold.
Wouldn't surprise me if 20 years from now Covid is still circulating but we no longer notice it, its just another cold strain.
Anecdotally, I've heard a few people recently say that the had a cold. So maybe not.
Previously, feeling poorly and having a snotty nose was good news, as it meant 'not Covid'. Until today, folk will have still assumed that was the case, and spread their 'cold' instead of self isolating.
Yes, there is that. There's also a risk of confusing it with hayfever, which I've had today (got better since taking piriton, shutting the windows and going instead)
The warwick model for potential hospitalitizations looks some nonsense potential outcomes....at extremes massively exceeding levels from 1st and 2nd waves.
Given that the symptoms of delta variant resemble having a cold am I the only one to wonder what the cold virus originated as ?
Aren’t the symptoms very similar to the other coronavirus variants? Which are definitely different from the cold.
Delta variant symptoms include runny nose and sore throat. Those were not major symptoms previously.
another_richard you're not the only one to speculate that the common cold began as a Covid style coronavirus - nor that Covid19 will end up as another common cold strain once we all have immunity to it.
But those aren’t the only symptoms. There are probably a ton of viruses that can result in a runny nose, it doesn’t automatically mean they are related to the cold.
Indeed but a runny nose was not a major symptom of the original Covid19. Indeed it was quite distinctively so, which was part of what suggested early on if you had it you probably had the cold and not Covid.
I wonder if as well as our acquiring immunity (which we all pretty much have for common cold coronaviruses and rhinoviruses) whether Covid is evolving more towards a common cold.
Wouldn't surprise me if 20 years from now Covid is still circulating but we no longer notice it, its just another cold strain.
Anecdotally, I've heard a few people recently say that the had a cold. So maybe not.
Previously, feeling poorly and having a snotty nose was good news, as it meant 'not Covid'. Until today, folk will have still assumed that was the case, and spread their 'cold' instead of self isolating.
I had a stinking cold three weeks ago. My double dosed parents also had it so I suspect it was just a cold, but who knows?
My daughter works for a charity helping refugees. One of the people she was helping was a boy from Eritrea. His village had crowdfunded his (rather horrendous) journey here so that he could send money home once he had a job.
Which he couldn't get because of course he was deemed an economic migrant even although he is from a dangeous shithole.
So, tonight, he has hanged himself unable to live with the pressure of having failed his village.
He was 16.
When people talk of hostile environments I want to vomit.
That's a terrible, tragic story but... well... he WAS an economic refugee, wasn't he? You say exactly that:
"His village had crowdfunded his (rather horrendous) journey here so that he could send money home once he had a job."
He should never have been sent by his village, they presumably paid the money to the people traffickers, this isn't all on HMG
Not saying it is. Yes, on the facts he does seem to have been an economic refugee. Here illegally. With the help of people smugglers.
But a 16 year old, having got here. Should we not have taken better care of him?
What care did we afford him ? What we know is his village clubbed together to send him here so he could earn money to send it back to Eritrea. He was treated as an economic migrant and tragically took his own life as a consequence.
It seems he was exploited by his village, exploited by people smugglers and let down in the U.K.
I don’t get it’s all our fault he was in this position.
Surely at a time when we are crying out for people to work in a variety of jobs he could have been allowed to stay ?
AIUI he was in some sort of a hostel. Social Work took him there but, despite him being a minor, then left him. My daughter had real problems communicating with him and she is good at that, well used to using translation apps to communicate. Of course he was very young. And no doubt scared. I am not talking about this any more. Enough.
You’ve presented this. People are asking questions and are not being judgmental or unpleasant. We just want to understand what went wrong.
I am not criticising anyone nor am I suggesting that there are any easy answers because clearly there aren't. Its just horrible and very sad.
We are incredibly lucky to be born in and live in this part of the world which passes as civilised. We moan about relatively minor restrictions on our activities and social lives for relatively short periods of time and that's ok too. We have a right to. But we should not forget those who face far more brutal choices.
Final dotted line is June 21st unlocking date, and Warwick model is at 100k. Cuckoo.
It would be more interesting to look at the hospital admissions data on the second row, as those can more easily be tested. I could imagine testing picking up far less than 50%, especially as more and more infections become asymptomatic.
The ONS picks up everything with random sampling. It would need a doubling rate of every 2 days from a quick calculation to get anywhere near 100k per day. None of the indicators show anything like that. The daily cases are showing a doubling period of about 13 days right now and the real time data from Professor Tim Spector shows symptomatic COVID growing at about 2% per day or around a 35 day doubling time.
It's laughable and this model is included in the decision making process. It should be dismissed out of hand as ridiculous and yet serious scientists are presenting it as credible.
Thanks, I've not looked at the ONS surveillance data in ages.
The warwick model for potential hospitalitizations looks nonsense....at extremes massively exceeding levels from 1st and 2nd waves.
It's proper garbage data. Once again, I'd be legitimately embarrassed to produce anything along those lines. We have so much real world data on transmission and vaccines, how does this even get in any serious report?
The Warwick model details released this evening say they expect 100k cases on the 21st of June.
Let's say the current 1m+ tests a day are only picking up 50% of cases. Does anyone expect 50k positive tests in 7 days time?
How are they not embarassed to go to print with this stuff?
It's a joke. These are the data models driving the decision making process. I don't understand how these scientists haven't been disowned. It's complete garbage.
There must be trials at the end of this. And I would put the scientists in the dock, first. Before the politicians
From Anthony "gain of function" Fauci to Richard "no conflict of interest" Horton, from Peter "we didn't have any bats!" Daszak, to all the fucked up academic modellers and nutters, right down to Susan "hey I'm a commie!" Michie, who wants us locked down forever
This cannot stand. They must be judged. And if they are found wanting, they must pay
What about Jonathan “My mate in Hong Kong (chuckle) said masks were worse than useless” Van Tam.
Wish it would happen but in the british way they will announce an inquiry and kick it into the long grass
Dr John Campbell says those estimated numbers on one dose cases / hospitizations vs delta is mostly Pfizer... that's not great, as Pfizer has always been better.
The Warwick model details released this evening say they expect 100k cases on the 21st of June.
Let's say the current 1m+ tests a day are only picking up 50% of cases. Does anyone expect 50k positive tests in 7 days time?
How are they not embarassed to go to print with this stuff?
It's a joke. These are the data models driving the decision making process. I don't understand how these scientists haven't been disowned. It's complete garbage.
There must be trials at the end of this. And I would put the scientists in the dock, first. Before the politicians
From Anthony "gain of function" Fauci to Richard "no conflict of interest" Horton, from Peter "we didn't have any bats!" Daszak, to all the fucked up academic modellers and nutters, right down to Susan "hey I'm a commie!" Michie, who wants us locked down forever
This cannot stand. They must be judged. And if they are found wanting, they must pay
What about Jonathan “My mate in Hong Kong (chuckle) said masks were worse than useless” Van Tam.
Oh God, him too. Definitely
I'd chuck in Whitty and Vallance too. That Jenny Harries has been poor also. I actually can't think of any that have come out with a shred of credibility.
Final dotted line is June 21st unlocking date, and Warwick model is at 100k. Cuckoo.
It would be more interesting to look at the hospital admissions data on the second row, as those can more easily be tested. I could imagine testing picking up far less than 50%, especially as more and more infections become asymptomatic.
The ONS picks up everything with random sampling. It would need a doubling rate of every 2 days from a quick calculation to get anywhere near 100k per day. None of the indicators show anything like that. The daily cases are showing a doubling period of about 13 days right now and the real time data from Professor Tim Spector shows symptomatic COVID growing at about 2% per day or around a 35 day doubling time.
It's laughable and this model is included in the decision making process. It should be dismissed out of hand as ridiculous and yet serious scientists are presenting it as credible.
Thanks, I've not looked at the ONS surveillance data in ages.
Final dotted line is June 21st unlocking date, and Warwick model is at 100k. Cuckoo.
It would be more interesting to look at the hospital admissions data on the second row, as those can more easily be tested. I could imagine testing picking up far less than 50%, especially as more and more infections become asymptomatic.
The ONS picks up everything with random sampling. It would need a doubling rate of every 2 days from a quick calculation to get anywhere near 100k per day. None of the indicators show anything like that. The daily cases are showing a doubling period of about 13 days right now and the real time data from Professor Tim Spector shows symptomatic COVID growing at about 2% per day or around a 35 day doubling time.
It's laughable and this model is included in the decision making process. It should be dismissed out of hand as ridiculous and yet serious scientists are presenting it as credible.
Thanks, I've not looked at the ONS surveillance data in ages.
Are there really going to be Wedding Dancing Police going round England locking up people for jigging to music during a Wedding Reception? Like the Purity Police of the Taliban, flogging musicians or men without beards
Preposterous. If you allow weddings, let people dance. Stupid fucks
It'll be the venue operators. Try paying £15k to a country house hotel and then being told it's this or you lose your money. They you turn up and try to have fun, and the operator is scared shitless of being dobbed in so plays the Gestapo for Sage.
I also don't quite understand it. I've just been to my gym: lots of people jiggling around indoors. Why is that OK and not dancing?
I can't help but suspect a hint of puritanism. Dancing is for evil pleasure! Exercise is sinless and good
The warwick model for potential hospitalitizations looks nonsense....at extremes massively exceeding levels from 1st and 2nd waves.
It's proper garbage data. Once again, I'd be legitimately embarrassed to produce anything along those lines. We have so much real world data on transmission and vaccines, how does this even get in any serious report?
There is something serious off with their modelling, as we a remember their firebreak model...well Boris a two week firebreak could save anywhere between 600 and 106k lives in the next 3 months.....saved lives...in 12 months we didn't have total deaths of 106k.
Re the never ending debate on the pandemic, one thought: if scientists are so driven to go with the science, why are we not hearing anything from them about the need to cut obesity? After all; one of the clear points from the evidence is that obese / fat people are more likely to be impacted.
It’s a rhetorical question by the way. I think we know the answer - it’s not deemed “correct” to highlight obesity because it “scapegoats” people. Yet not only are we all paying the price because of this issue (in terms of Covid and the general health costs) but it’s not helping these people themselves.
The scientists” silence on this is one of the reasons why I find it hard to accept at face value the idea that they are solely driven by the science.
There are shed loads of papers on the negative impact of obesity on your health, leading to all sorts of nonsense reports in not very scientifically literate newspapers and on the TV / radio.
Our scientists should be pressing the point on obesity hard. As you said, there is plenty of information showing ita negative impact. If people truly mean we should use this crisis to change poor behaviours, this should very much be at the forefront.
Surely the opportunity and narrative is driven my editors of newspapers and TV / radio ?
There are non-stop badly written articles in The Express & Mail almost every day utterly failing to relay medical updates factually.
The problem really is not with science or scientists, it is the media who are normally utterly scientifically and numerically illiterate.
For something like this, a Chris Whiny standing up and saying we need to cut obesity would have far more impact than a media publication. People associate the latter with flip-flopping constantly when it comes to medical advice / what to do and what not to do.
But people do stand up and say such things.
Michael Mosley makes a shed load of such programmes that are on the BBC all the time, 30mins or 60mins programmes talking these kinds of issues.
Very few people watch them.
Either the government needs to put them in their press conferences and ask them to talk about such topics, and be accused of creating a nanny state, or the media need to start changing how they report science.
I’d agree with the need for more intervention.
In my mind, the Government should be doing the same thing with obesity as it has done with smoking - constantly highlighting the risks and the consequences, and what it leads to. Unpleasant maybe and I’m sure the HFSS industry would scream but so did the tobacco industry.
The Warwick model details released this evening say they expect 100k cases on the 21st of June.
Let's say the current 1m+ tests a day are only picking up 50% of cases. Does anyone expect 50k positive tests in 7 days time?
How are they not embarassed to go to print with this stuff?
It's a joke. These are the data models driving the decision making process. I don't understand how these scientists haven't been disowned. It's complete garbage.
There must be trials at the end of this. And I would put the scientists in the dock, first. Before the politicians
From Anthony "gain of function" Fauci to Richard "no conflict of interest" Horton, from Peter "we didn't have any bats!" Daszak, to all the fucked up academic modellers and nutters, right down to Susan "hey I'm a commie!" Michie, who wants us locked down forever
This cannot stand. They must be judged. And if they are found wanting, they must pay
What about Jonathan “My mate in Hong Kong (chuckle) said masks were worse than useless” Van Tam.
Oh God, him too. Definitely
I'd chuck in Whitty and Vallance too. That Jenny Harries has been poor also. I actually can't think of any that have come out with a shred of credibility.
Given that the symptoms of delta variant resemble having a cold am I the only one to wonder what the cold virus originated as ?
Aren’t the symptoms very similar to the other coronavirus variants? Which are definitely different from the cold.
Delta variant symptoms include runny nose and sore throat. Those were not major symptoms previously.
another_richard you're not the only one to speculate that the common cold began as a Covid style coronavirus - nor that Covid19 will end up as another common cold strain once we all have immunity to it.
But those aren’t the only symptoms. There are probably a ton of viruses that can result in a runny nose, it doesn’t automatically mean they are related to the cold.
Indeed but a runny nose was not a major symptom of the original Covid19. Indeed it was quite distinctively so, which was part of what suggested early on if you had it you probably had the cold and not Covid.
I wonder if as well as our acquiring immunity (which we all pretty much have for common cold coronaviruses and rhinoviruses) whether Covid is evolving more towards a common cold.
Wouldn't surprise me if 20 years from now Covid is still circulating but we no longer notice it, its just another cold strain.
Anecdotally, I've heard a few people recently say that the had a cold. So maybe not.
Previously, feeling poorly and having a snotty nose was good news, as it meant 'not Covid'. Until today, folk will have still assumed that was the case, and spread their 'cold' instead of self isolating.
Yes, there is that. There's also a risk of confusing it with hayfever, which I've had today (got better since taking piriton, shutting the windows and going instead)
Ditto that, I've basically just sneezed all day. I hate hayfever. I hate it even more when it starts to look like covid.
Are there really going to be Wedding Dancing Police going round England locking up people for jigging to music during a Wedding Reception? Like the Purity Police of the Taliban, flogging musicians or men without beards
Preposterous. If you allow weddings, let people dance. Stupid fucks
It'll be the venue operators. Try paying £15k to a country house hotel and then being told it's this or you lose your money. They you turn up and try to have fun, and the operator is scared shitless of being dobbed in so plays the Gestapo for Sage.
I also don't quite understand it. I've just been to my gym: lots of people jiggling around indoors. Why is that OK and not dancing?
I can't help but suspect a hint of puritanism. Dancing is for evil pleasure! Exercise is sinless and good
Difficult to think of any other explanation.
“Puritanism: The haunting fear that someone, somewhere, may be happy.”
The warwick model for potential hospitalitizations looks some nonsense potential outcomes....at extremes massively exceeding levels from 1st and 2nd waves.
Well of course it is. I swear with at least half of these models that the people creating them begin with their personal assumptions - that masks and social distancing are a public health essential that must last for all eternity - and then work their way backwards from there, manipulating whatever junk data they feed into them in the first place until they obtain the result (i.e. that removing restrictions will result within about three months in a hellscape of burning hospitals, where the few traumatised survivors wade knee deep through rotting corpses) that they want.
Part of the public inquiry process should be to assemble a panel of disinterested statistics and computing boffins, who have at no point ever worked in epidemiological modelling, to examine the outputs of these models throughout the pandemic, pull their inner workings apart, and establish which (if any) of them was remotely credible.
Final dotted line is June 21st unlocking date, and Warwick model is at 100k. Cuckoo.
It would be more interesting to look at the hospital admissions data on the second row, as those can more easily be tested. I could imagine testing picking up far less than 50%, especially as more and more infections become asymptomatic.
The ONS picks up everything with random sampling. It would need a doubling rate of every 2 days from a quick calculation to get anywhere near 100k per day. None of the indicators show anything like that. The daily cases are showing a doubling period of about 13 days right now and the real time data from Professor Tim Spector shows symptomatic COVID growing at about 2% per day or around a 35 day doubling time.
It's laughable and this model is included in the decision making process. It should be dismissed out of hand as ridiculous and yet serious scientists are presenting it as credible.
Thanks, I've not looked at the ONS surveillance data in ages.
Final dotted line is June 21st unlocking date, and Warwick model is at 100k. Cuckoo.
It would be more interesting to look at the hospital admissions data on the second row, as those can more easily be tested. I could imagine testing picking up far less than 50%, especially as more and more infections become asymptomatic.
The ONS picks up everything with random sampling. It would need a doubling rate of every 2 days from a quick calculation to get anywhere near 100k per day. None of the indicators show anything like that. The daily cases are showing a doubling period of about 13 days right now and the real time data from Professor Tim Spector shows symptomatic COVID growing at about 2% per day or around a 35 day doubling time.
It's laughable and this model is included in the decision making process. It should be dismissed out of hand as ridiculous and yet serious scientists are presenting it as credible.
Thanks, I've not looked at the ONS surveillance data in ages.
Given that the symptoms of delta variant resemble having a cold am I the only one to wonder what the cold virus originated as ?
Aren’t the symptoms very similar to the other coronavirus variants? Which are definitely different from the cold.
Delta variant symptoms include runny nose and sore throat. Those were not major symptoms previously.
another_richard you're not the only one to speculate that the common cold began as a Covid style coronavirus - nor that Covid19 will end up as another common cold strain once we all have immunity to it.
But those aren’t the only symptoms. There are probably a ton of viruses that can result in a runny nose, it doesn’t automatically mean they are related to the cold.
Indeed but a runny nose was not a major symptom of the original Covid19. Indeed it was quite distinctively so, which was part of what suggested early on if you had it you probably had the cold and not Covid.
I wonder if as well as our acquiring immunity (which we all pretty much have for common cold coronaviruses and rhinoviruses) whether Covid is evolving more towards a common cold.
Wouldn't surprise me if 20 years from now Covid is still circulating but we no longer notice it, its just another cold strain.
Anecdotally, I've heard a few people recently say that the had a cold. So maybe not.
Previously, feeling poorly and having a snotty nose was good news, as it meant 'not Covid'. Until today, folk will have still assumed that was the case, and spread their 'cold' instead of self isolating.
Yes, there is that. There's also a risk of confusing it with hayfever, which I've had today (got better since taking piriton, shutting the windows and going instead)
Ditto that, I've basically just sneezed all day. I hate hayfever. I hate it even more when it starts to look like covid.
The pollen today has been wicked. Just had a scotch, purely to test my sense of smell and taste
Are there really going to be Wedding Dancing Police going round England locking up people for jigging to music during a Wedding Reception? Like the Purity Police of the Taliban, flogging musicians or men without beards
Preposterous. If you allow weddings, let people dance. Stupid fucks
It'll be the venue operators. Try paying £15k to a country house hotel and then being told it's this or you lose your money. They you turn up and try to have fun, and the operator is scared shitless of being dobbed in so plays the Gestapo for Sage.
I also don't quite understand it. I've just been to my gym: lots of people jiggling around indoors. Why is that OK and not dancing?
I can't help but suspect a hint of puritanism. Dancing is for evil pleasure! Exercise is sinless and good
Difficult to think of any other explanation.
And adult dance classes are allowed. Perhaps, invite a dance teacher to your wedding and fashion it as a 'class'??
Final dotted line is June 21st unlocking date, and Warwick model is at 100k. Cuckoo.
It would be more interesting to look at the hospital admissions data on the second row, as those can more easily be tested. I could imagine testing picking up far less than 50%, especially as more and more infections become asymptomatic.
The ONS picks up everything with random sampling. It would need a doubling rate of every 2 days from a quick calculation to get anywhere near 100k per day. None of the indicators show anything like that. The daily cases are showing a doubling period of about 13 days right now and the real time data from Professor Tim Spector shows symptomatic COVID growing at about 2% per day or around a 35 day doubling time.
It's laughable and this model is included in the decision making process. It should be dismissed out of hand as ridiculous and yet serious scientists are presenting it as credible.
I was wondering if it was anyone's job in SAGE to actively challenge the models that are produced and the models that are drawn. From an expert standpoint. They don't have to be right, but to offer a permanent and robust form of challenge. For the politicians challenging the scientists it's clearly not a fair fight - so they need somebody doing it on their behalf.
The warwick model for potential hospitalitizations looks some nonsense potential outcomes....at extremes massively exceeding levels from 1st and 2nd waves.
Well of course it is. I swear with at least half of these models that the people creating them begin with their personal assumptions - that masks and social distancing are a public health essential that must last for all eternity - and then work their way backwards from there, manipulating whatever junk data they feed into them in the first place until they obtain the result (i.e. that removing restrictions will result within about three months in a hellscape of burning hospitals, where the few traumatised survivors wade knee deep through rotting corpses) that they want.
Part of the public inquiry process should be to assemble a panel of disinterested statistics and computing boffins, who have at no point ever worked in epidemiological modelling, to examine the outputs of these models throughout the pandemic, pull their inner workings apart, and establish which (if any) of them was remotely credible.
The latter part is the issue. The people doing the modelling are not data people. They are scientists with an agenda and pre-conceived notions because they study the science. Data is data, it has no real agenda and anyone looking at the UK data in isolation without any agenda would suggest that the vaccines are working and cases are burning through the unvaccinated.
Given that the symptoms of delta variant resemble having a cold am I the only one to wonder what the cold virus originated as ?
Aren’t the symptoms very similar to the other coronavirus variants? Which are definitely different from the cold.
Delta variant symptoms include runny nose and sore throat. Those were not major symptoms previously.
another_richard you're not the only one to speculate that the common cold began as a Covid style coronavirus - nor that Covid19 will end up as another common cold strain once we all have immunity to it.
But those aren’t the only symptoms. There are probably a ton of viruses that can result in a runny nose, it doesn’t automatically mean they are related to the cold.
Indeed but a runny nose was not a major symptom of the original Covid19. Indeed it was quite distinctively so, which was part of what suggested early on if you had it you probably had the cold and not Covid.
I wonder if as well as our acquiring immunity (which we all pretty much have for common cold coronaviruses and rhinoviruses) whether Covid is evolving more towards a common cold.
Wouldn't surprise me if 20 years from now Covid is still circulating but we no longer notice it, its just another cold strain.
Anecdotally, I've heard a few people recently say that the had a cold. So maybe not.
Previously, feeling poorly and having a snotty nose was good news, as it meant 'not Covid'. Until today, folk will have still assumed that was the case, and spread their 'cold' instead of self isolating.
When Mrs Foxy had covid in November, she had a runny nose and was sneezing, which is why we thought it was an ordinary cold. She only got tested because someone she worked with tested positive. She lost her taste and smell a bit later, and it still isn't back to normal. She never had a cough. I have a speculative theory that those with nasal and throat symptoms get less lung disease.
Incidentally, we are now seeing people testing positive after a week in with something else, implying in hospital transmission again, perhaps from asymptomatic staff. I don't think that we can discard our PPE yet, whatever happens outside.
Final dotted line is June 21st unlocking date, and Warwick model is at 100k. Cuckoo.
It would be more interesting to look at the hospital admissions data on the second row, as those can more easily be tested. I could imagine testing picking up far less than 50%, especially as more and more infections become asymptomatic.
The ONS picks up everything with random sampling. It would need a doubling rate of every 2 days from a quick calculation to get anywhere near 100k per day. None of the indicators show anything like that. The daily cases are showing a doubling period of about 13 days right now and the real time data from Professor Tim Spector shows symptomatic COVID growing at about 2% per day or around a 35 day doubling time.
It's laughable and this model is included in the decision making process. It should be dismissed out of hand as ridiculous and yet serious scientists are presenting it as credible.
I was wondering if it was anyone's job in SAGE to actively challenge the models that are produced and the models that are drawn. From an expert standpoint. They don't have to be right, but to offer a permanent and robust form of challenge. For the politicians challenging the scientists it's clearly not a fair fight - so they need somebody doing it on their behalf.
The lack of a tenth man strategy would be a massive oversight....
The warwick model for potential hospitalitizations looks some nonsense potential outcomes....at extremes massively exceeding levels from 1st and 2nd waves.
Well of course it is. I swear with at least half of these models that the people creating them begin with their personal assumptions - that masks and social distancing are a public health essential that must last for all eternity - and then work their way backwards from there, manipulating whatever junk data they feed into them in the first place until they obtain the result (i.e. that removing restrictions will result within about three months in a hellscape of burning hospitals, where the few traumatised survivors wade knee deep through rotting corpses) that they want.
Part of the public inquiry process should be to assemble a panel of disinterested statistics and computing boffins, who have at no point ever worked in epidemiological modelling, to examine the outputs of these models throughout the pandemic, pull their inner workings apart, and establish which (if any) of them was remotely credible.
The latter part is the issue. The people doing the modelling are not data people. They are scientists with an agenda and pre-conceived notions because they study the science. Data is data, it has no real agenda and anyone looking at the UK data in isolation without any agenda would suggest that the vaccines are working and cases are burning through the unvaccinated.
One thing I have learned from Covid: supposedly expert and brilliant scientists can be 1. stupid, 2. short-sighted, 3. biased, 4. politically motivated, and 5. quite easily bought or bullied
Are there really going to be Wedding Dancing Police going round England locking up people for jigging to music during a Wedding Reception? Like the Purity Police of the Taliban, flogging musicians or men without beards
Preposterous. If you allow weddings, let people dance. Stupid fucks
It'll be the venue operators. Try paying £15k to a country house hotel and then being told it's this or you lose your money. They you turn up and try to have fun, and the operator is scared shitless of being dobbed in so plays the Gestapo for Sage.
I also don't quite understand it. I've just been to my gym: lots of people jiggling around indoors. Why is that OK and not dancing?
I can't help but suspect a hint of puritanism. Dancing is for evil pleasure! Exercise is sinless and good
Difficult to think of any other explanation.
Few things are as certain as couplings at weddings.
The warwick model for potential hospitalitizations looks some nonsense potential outcomes....at extremes massively exceeding levels from 1st and 2nd waves.
Well of course it is. I swear with at least half of these models that the people creating them begin with their personal assumptions - that masks and social distancing are a public health essential that must last for all eternity - and then work their way backwards from there, manipulating whatever junk data they feed into them in the first place until they obtain the result (i.e. that removing restrictions will result within about three months in a hellscape of burning hospitals, where the few traumatised survivors wade knee deep through rotting corpses) that they want.
Part of the public inquiry process should be to assemble a panel of disinterested statistics and computing boffins, who have at no point ever worked in epidemiological modelling, to examine the outputs of these models throughout the pandemic, pull their inner workings apart, and establish which (if any) of them was remotely credible.
The latter part is the issue. The people doing the modelling are not data people. They are scientists with an agenda and pre-conceived notions because they study the science. Data is data, it has no real agenda and anyone looking at the UK data in isolation without any agenda would suggest that the vaccines are working and cases are burning through the unvaccinated.
One thing I have learned from Covid: supposedly expert and brilliant scientists can be 1. stupid, 2. short-sighted, 3. biased, 4. politically motivated, and 5. quite easily bought or bullied
The warwick model for potential hospitalitizations looks nonsense....at extremes massively exceeding levels from 1st and 2nd waves.
It's proper garbage data. Once again, I'd be legitimately embarrassed to produce anything along those lines. We have so much real world data on transmission and vaccines, how does this even get in any serious report?
Because it serves their purposes and unlike your peers,no one knows enough to call them out on it.
The Warwick model details released this evening say they expect 100k cases on the 21st of June.
Let's say the current 1m+ tests a day are only picking up 50% of cases. Does anyone expect 50k positive tests in 7 days time?
How are they not embarassed to go to print with this stuff?
It's a joke. These are the data models driving the decision making process. I don't understand how these scientists haven't been disowned. It's complete garbage.
There must be trials at the end of this. And I would put the scientists in the dock, first. Before the politicians
From Anthony "gain of function" Fauci to Richard "no conflict of interest" Horton, from Peter "we didn't have any bats!" Daszak, to all the fucked up academic modellers and nutters, right down to Susan "hey I'm a commie!" Michie, who wants us locked down forever
This cannot stand. They must be judged. And if they are found wanting, they must pay
What about Jonathan “My mate in Hong Kong (chuckle) said masks were worse than useless” Van Tam.
Oh God, him too. Definitely
I'd chuck in Whitty and Vallance too. That Jenny Harries has been poor also. I actually can't think of any that have come out with a shred of credibility.
Devi has been a star.
I wouldn't mind giving Devi a bit of my "viral" load!
Looks to me like France is in a Delta upswing from a higher base
Possibly.
A much higher base of 12k already in hospital and a much lower base of vaccinated.
Yes. I see no reason why Europe (or America) should avoid delta, just as we did not
We had an imbecile prime minister who allowed it to seed here earlier, and who threw away our vaccine advantage, the EU and the USA have greater vax hesitancy and lower levels of full vaccination (certainly in places) they might be about to throw away their warning time
Delta will surely sweep through every unvaxed or partly vaxed country. Why should it not? Unless they have a superb NZ-style quarantine regime
Looks to me like France is in a Delta upswing from a higher base
Possibly.
A much higher base of 12k already in hospital and a much lower base of vaccinated.
Yes. I see no reason why Europe (or America) should avoid delta, just as we did not
We had an imbecile prime minister who allowed it to seed here earlier, and who threw away our vaccine advantage, the EU and the USA have greater vax hesitancy and lower levels of full vaccination (certainly in places) they might be about to throw away their warning time
Delta will surely sweep through every unvaxed or partly vaxed country. Why should it not? Unless they have a superb NZ-style quarantine regime
Just wait until they all go on their summer hols....
Looks to me like France is in a Delta upswing from a higher base
Possibly.
A much higher base of 12k already in hospital and a much lower base of vaccinated.
Yes. I see no reason why Europe (or America) should avoid delta, just as we did not
We had an imbecile prime minister who allowed it to seed here earlier, and who threw away our vaccine advantage, the EU and the USA have greater vax hesitancy and lower levels of full vaccination (certainly in places) they might be about to throw away their warning time
Delta will surely sweep through every unvaxed or partly vaxed country. Why should it not? Unless they have a superb NZ-style quarantine regime
It may sweep through all these countries. The question is whether it causes a serious problem for public health or their health systems.
Thus far in the UK... it has not. Yes we're in a much better place on vaccinations. But then much of that "better place" may not have a serious benefit in public health terms.
Looks to me like France is in a Delta upswing from a higher base
Possibly.
A much higher base of 12k already in hospital and a much lower base of vaccinated.
Yes. I see no reason why Europe (or America) should avoid delta, just as we did not
We had an imbecile prime minister who allowed it to seed here earlier, and who threw away our vaccine advantage, the EU and the USA have greater vax hesitancy and lower levels of full vaccination (certainly in places) they might be about to throw away their warning time
Delta will surely sweep through every unvaxed or partly vaxed country. Why should it not? Unless they have a superb NZ-style quarantine regime
In terms of what we know, it seems inevitable, although highly vaxxed countries (Canada, Israel) will surely escape it.
Final dotted line is June 21st unlocking date, and Warwick model is at 100k. Cuckoo.
It would be more interesting to look at the hospital admissions data on the second row, as those can more easily be tested. I could imagine testing picking up far less than 50%, especially as more and more infections become asymptomatic.
The ONS picks up everything with random sampling. It would need a doubling rate of every 2 days from a quick calculation to get anywhere near 100k per day. None of the indicators show anything like that. The daily cases are showing a doubling period of about 13 days right now and the real time data from Professor Tim Spector shows symptomatic COVID growing at about 2% per day or around a 35 day doubling time.
It's laughable and this model is included in the decision making process. It should be dismissed out of hand as ridiculous and yet serious scientists are presenting it as credible.
Thanks, I've not looked at the ONS surveillance data in ages.
We have government by model.
If only.
Naomi Campbell could hardly have done any worse.
Just to remind you that Elle McPherson was dating Andrew Wakefield…
Re the never ending debate on the pandemic, one thought: if scientists are so driven to go with the science, why are we not hearing anything from them about the need to cut obesity? After all; one of the clear points from the evidence is that obese / fat people are more likely to be impacted.
It’s a rhetorical question by the way. I think we know the answer - it’s not deemed “correct” to highlight obesity because it “scapegoats” people. Yet not only are we all paying the price because of this issue (in terms of Covid and the general health costs) but it’s not helping these people themselves.
The scientists” silence on this is one of the reasons why I find it hard to accept at face value the idea that they are solely driven by the science.
There are shed loads of papers on the negative impact of obesity on your health, leading to all sorts of nonsense reports in not very scientifically literate newspapers and on the TV / radio.
Our scientists should be pressing the point on obesity hard. As you said, there is plenty of information showing ita negative impact. If people truly mean we should use this crisis to change poor behaviours, this should very much be at the forefront.
Surely the opportunity and narrative is driven my editors of newspapers and TV / radio ?
There are non-stop badly written articles in The Express & Mail almost every day utterly failing to relay medical updates factually.
The problem really is not with science or scientists, it is the media who are normally utterly scientifically and numerically illiterate.
For something like this, a Chris Whiny standing up and saying we need to cut obesity would have far more impact than a media publication. People associate the latter with flip-flopping constantly when it comes to medical advice / what to do and what not to do.
But people do stand up and say such things.
Michael Mosley makes a shed load of such programmes that are on the BBC all the time, 30mins or 60mins programmes talking these kinds of issues.
Very few people watch them.
Either the government needs to put them in their press conferences and ask them to talk about such topics, and be accused of creating a nanny state, or the media need to start changing how they report science.
I’d agree with the need for more intervention.
In my mind, the Government should be doing the same thing with obesity as it has done with smoking - constantly highlighting the risks and the consequences, and what it leads to. Unpleasant maybe and I’m sure the HFSS industry would scream but so did the tobacco industry.
But how would it work. HFSS food isn’t necessarily bad and junk food is a meaningless Term. Smoking you either do it or you don’t, it’s a leisure activity. People need food to eat. What evidence is there curtailing so called HFSS food would do any good ? The online ad ban proposals proponents accept it would only reduce calorie intake by about 3 a day.
Looks to me like France is in a Delta upswing from a higher base
Possibly.
A much higher base of 12k already in hospital and a much lower base of vaccinated.
Yes. I see no reason why Europe (or America) should avoid delta, just as we did not
We had an imbecile prime minister who allowed it to seed here earlier, and who threw away our vaccine advantage, the EU and the USA have greater vax hesitancy and lower levels of full vaccination (certainly in places) they might be about to throw away their warning time
Delta will surely sweep through every unvaxed or partly vaxed country. Why should it not? Unless they have a superb NZ-style quarantine regime
In terms of what we know, it seems inevitable, although highly vaxxed countries (Canada, Israel) will surely escape it.
Canada isn't highly vaxxed. They've taken an even more extreme approach to first vaccination priority than we have. They are not much more than 10% fully vaxxed. Although are now beginning to enter a rapid upswing for second doses.
The warwick model for potential hospitalitizations looks nonsense....at extremes massively exceeding levels from 1st and 2nd waves.
It's proper garbage data. Once again, I'd be legitimately embarrassed to produce anything along those lines. We have so much real world data on transmission and vaccines, how does this even get in any serious report?
Because it serves their purposes and unlike your peers,no one knows enough to call them out on it.
What I find weird is that one part of the state, PHE, is producing reports with very, very high quality real world data on vaccine efficacy at different levels and dosages, it produces very high quality real world data on transmission and vaccine effect on transmission. That all then gets ignored by a different branch of the state that does all of the data modelling. It's just mental.
The warwick model for potential hospitalitizations looks some nonsense potential outcomes....at extremes massively exceeding levels from 1st and 2nd waves.
Well of course it is. I swear with at least half of these models that the people creating them begin with their personal assumptions - that masks and social distancing are a public health essential that must last for all eternity - and then work their way backwards from there, manipulating whatever junk data they feed into them in the first place until they obtain the result (i.e. that removing restrictions will result within about three months in a hellscape of burning hospitals, where the few traumatised survivors wade knee deep through rotting corpses) that they want.
Part of the public inquiry process should be to assemble a panel of disinterested statistics and computing boffins, who have at no point ever worked in epidemiological modelling, to examine the outputs of these models throughout the pandemic, pull their inner workings apart, and establish which (if any) of them was remotely credible.
The latter part is the issue. The people doing the modelling are not data people. They are scientists with an agenda and pre-conceived notions because they study the science. Data is data, it has no real agenda and anyone looking at the UK data in isolation without any agenda would suggest that the vaccines are working and cases are burning through the unvaccinated.
One thing I have learned from Covid: supposedly expert and brilliant scientists can be 1. stupid, 2. short-sighted, 3. biased, 4. politically motivated, and 5. quite easily bought or bullied
It is a lesson for us all
Indeed. Scientists are people, ultimately.
Point I made earlier today. Their only advantage over the rest of us is that they tend to give more importance to the scientific method than the average opinionator.
Best take today.
https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1404474305094823939 I try to avoid giving 'epidemiological advice' in public, as I don't believe this is my role as a scientist. Then, concerning the current situation in the UK, this feels really easy, as I have no clue what the best strategy may be. All options look a bit rubbish to me.
Looks to me like France is in a Delta upswing from a higher base
Possibly.
A much higher base of 12k already in hospital and a much lower base of vaccinated.
Yes. I see no reason why Europe (or America) should avoid delta, just as we did not
We had an imbecile prime minister who allowed it to seed here earlier, and who threw away our vaccine advantage, the EU and the USA have greater vax hesitancy and lower levels of full vaccination (certainly in places) they might be about to throw away their warning time
Delta will surely sweep through every unvaxed or partly vaxed country. Why should it not? Unless they have a superb NZ-style quarantine regime
In terms of what we know, it seems inevitable, although highly vaxxed countries (Canada, Israel) will surely escape it.
Canada's vax campaign is suddenly one of the best in the world. How did they do that?!
They were entirely reliant on exports from the EU, USA, India, etc. Who said they would never export. I guess they paid top dollar
Looks to me like France is in a Delta upswing from a higher base
Possibly.
A much higher base of 12k already in hospital and a much lower base of vaccinated.
Yes. I see no reason why Europe (or America) should avoid delta, just as we did not
We had an imbecile prime minister who allowed it to seed here earlier, and who threw away our vaccine advantage, the EU and the USA have greater vax hesitancy and lower levels of full vaccination (certainly in places) they might be about to throw away their warning time
Delta will surely sweep through every unvaxed or partly vaxed country. Why should it not? Unless they have a superb NZ-style quarantine regime
In terms of what we know, it seems inevitable, although highly vaxxed countries (Canada, Israel) will surely escape it.
Canada isn't highly vaxxed. They've taken an even more extreme approach to first vaccination priority than we have. They are not much more than 10% fully vaxxed. Although are now beginning to enter a rapid upswing for second doses.
Which makes them highly vaxxed. They learnt from what worked well in Britain and did it even better.
The first dose vaccination strategy worked and it works for Delta too as much as people say it doesn't.
By giving one dose to young adults too it strangles the ability of the virus to spread as much where it most commonly does.
Its great that the British experiment on single doses has allowed other nations like Canada to follow.
The Warwick model details released this evening say they expect 100k cases on the 21st of June.
Let's say the current 1m+ tests a day are only picking up 50% of cases. Does anyone expect 50k positive tests in 7 days time?
How are they not embarassed to go to print with this stuff?
It's a joke. These are the data models driving the decision making process. I don't understand how these scientists haven't been disowned. It's complete garbage.
There must be trials at the end of this. And I would put the scientists in the dock, first. Before the politicians
From Anthony "gain of function" Fauci to Richard "no conflict of interest" Horton, from Peter "we didn't have any bats!" Daszak, to all the fucked up academic modellers and nutters, right down to Susan "hey I'm a commie!" Michie, who wants us locked down forever
This cannot stand. They must be judged. And if they are found wanting, they must pay
What about Jonathan “My mate in Hong Kong (chuckle) said masks were worse than useless” Van Tam.
Oh God, him too. Definitely
I'd chuck in Whitty and Vallance too. That Jenny Harries has been poor also. I actually can't think of any that have come out with a shred of credibility.
Devi has been a star.
I wouldn't mind giving Devi a bit of my "viral" load!
EDIT: Ooops! Wrong forum!
You're crazy Sunil, you know that? You really think that you can get a dangerous organism like covid 19 past ICC quarantine?
Final dotted line is June 21st unlocking date, and Warwick model is at 100k. Cuckoo.
It would be more interesting to look at the hospital admissions data on the second row, as those can more easily be tested. I could imagine testing picking up far less than 50%, especially as more and more infections become asymptomatic.
The ONS picks up everything with random sampling. It would need a doubling rate of every 2 days from a quick calculation to get anywhere near 100k per day. None of the indicators show anything like that. The daily cases are showing a doubling period of about 13 days right now and the real time data from Professor Tim Spector shows symptomatic COVID growing at about 2% per day or around a 35 day doubling time.
It's laughable and this model is included in the decision making process. It should be dismissed out of hand as ridiculous and yet serious scientists are presenting it as credible.
I was wondering if it was anyone's job in SAGE to actively challenge the models that are produced and the models that are drawn. From an expert standpoint. They don't have to be right, but to offer a permanent and robust form of challenge. For the politicians challenging the scientists it's clearly not a fair fight - so they need somebody doing it on their behalf.
The lack of a tenth man strategy would be a massive oversight....
Wasn't this one of Cummings' criticisms? There is no red team as I think they call it.
Of course one of the answers they use to critics (and I have heard Ferguson say this) is that there are a number of models from different teams and they all came/come up with similar figures i.e. the wrong ones when compared to real world data.
1 in 2 cases ends up in hospital? Can’t be right. Serious lack of counting.
Bear in mind that France, for a long time, has only counted deaths in hospitals. Which suggests that a huge proportion of their testing may be limited to hospitals as well.
Looks to me like France is in a Delta upswing from a higher base
Possibly.
A much higher base of 12k already in hospital and a much lower base of vaccinated.
Yes. I see no reason why Europe (or America) should avoid delta, just as we did not
We had an imbecile prime minister who allowed it to seed here earlier, and who threw away our vaccine advantage, the EU and the USA have greater vax hesitancy and lower levels of full vaccination (certainly in places) they might be about to throw away their warning time
Delta will surely sweep through every unvaxed or partly vaxed country. Why should it not? Unless they have a superb NZ-style quarantine regime
In terms of what we know, it seems inevitable, although highly vaxxed countries (Canada, Israel) will surely escape it.
I really do wonder if we've been overcounting positive tested cases throughout. It would be so terribly British....
More likely, given those numbers (and I had to go and check them at source; remarkably there are still over 12,000 Covid patients in French hospitals, and about 2,000 in intensive care) the French are grossly underreporting their cases.
I know so little of the situation in France that I can only speculate as to why that would be. I do know some months back that it was reported that Wales was sequencing more Covid genomes in a week than France had managed in the whole of the pandemic, or some such extraordinary statistic. Is it simply that their testing infrastructure is poor and they're not detecting the vast bulk of their cases?
In truth, a lot of tests are being conducted in France but the difference between there and the UK does nevertheless seem to be very substantial. Lacking any significant command of the French language I'm struggling slightly with that French Government website, but I think that those 689 confirmed cases must be some kind of special category in France, because the tests page seems to record about 3,800 positive tests today - but, here's the thing: the tests page also appears to suggest that the French have conducted just under 90 million tests in total so far, whereas we're now at 192 million. In terms of today alone, we have carried out just over a million tests whereas France has reported about 375,000.
Put simply, you can't count positive cases to which you are blind.
Given that the symptoms of delta variant resemble having a cold am I the only one to wonder what the cold virus originated as ?
Aren’t the symptoms very similar to the other coronavirus variants? Which are definitely different from the cold.
Delta variant symptoms include runny nose and sore throat. Those were not major symptoms previously.
another_richard you're not the only one to speculate that the common cold began as a Covid style coronavirus - nor that Covid19 will end up as another common cold strain once we all have immunity to it.
But those aren’t the only symptoms. There are probably a ton of viruses that can result in a runny nose, it doesn’t automatically mean they are related to the cold.
Indeed but a runny nose was not a major symptom of the original Covid19. Indeed it was quite distinctively so, which was part of what suggested early on if you had it you probably had the cold and not Covid.
I wonder if as well as our acquiring immunity (which we all pretty much have for common cold coronaviruses and rhinoviruses) whether Covid is evolving more towards a common cold.
Wouldn't surprise me if 20 years from now Covid is still circulating but we no longer notice it, its just another cold strain.
Anecdotally, I've heard a few people recently say that the had a cold. So maybe not.
Previously, feeling poorly and having a snotty nose was good news, as it meant 'not Covid'. Until today, folk will have still assumed that was the case, and spread their 'cold' instead of self isolating.
When Mrs Foxy had covid in November, she had a runny nose and was sneezing, which is why we thought it was an ordinary cold. She only got tested because someone she worked with tested positive. She lost her taste and smell a bit later, and it still isn't back to normal. She never had a cough. I have a speculative theory that those with nasal and throat symptoms get less lung disease.
Incidentally, we are now seeing people testing positive after a week in with something else, implying in hospital transmission again, perhaps from asymptomatic staff. I don't think that we can discard our PPE yet, whatever happens outside.
Looks to me like France is in a Delta upswing from a higher base
Possibly.
A much higher base of 12k already in hospital and a much lower base of vaccinated.
Yes. I see no reason why Europe (or America) should avoid delta, just as we did not
We had an imbecile prime minister who allowed it to seed here earlier, and who threw away our vaccine advantage, the EU and the USA have greater vax hesitancy and lower levels of full vaccination (certainly in places) they might be about to throw away their warning time
Delta will surely sweep through every unvaxed or partly vaxed country. Why should it not? Unless they have a superb NZ-style quarantine regime
In terms of what we know, it seems inevitable, although highly vaxxed countries (Canada, Israel) will surely escape it.
Canada's vax campaign is suddenly one of the best in the world. How did they do that?!
They were entirely reliant on exports from the EU, USA, India, etc. Who said they would never export. I guess they paid top dollar
16 week gap between doses. They've literally stopped all second doses which might not be a great idea for Delta.
Final dotted line is June 21st unlocking date, and Warwick model is at 100k. Cuckoo.
It would be more interesting to look at the hospital admissions data on the second row, as those can more easily be tested. I could imagine testing picking up far less than 50%, especially as more and more infections become asymptomatic.
The ONS picks up everything with random sampling. It would need a doubling rate of every 2 days from a quick calculation to get anywhere near 100k per day. None of the indicators show anything like that. The daily cases are showing a doubling period of about 13 days right now and the real time data from Professor Tim Spector shows symptomatic COVID growing at about 2% per day or around a 35 day doubling time.
It's laughable and this model is included in the decision making process. It should be dismissed out of hand as ridiculous and yet serious scientists are presenting it as credible.
I was wondering if it was anyone's job in SAGE to actively challenge the models that are produced and the models that are drawn. From an expert standpoint. They don't have to be right, but to offer a permanent and robust form of challenge. For the politicians challenging the scientists it's clearly not a fair fight - so they need somebody doing it on their behalf.
The lack of a tenth man strategy would be a massive oversight....
Wasn't this one of Cummings' criticisms? There is no red team as I think they call it.
Of course one of the answers they use to critics (and I have heard Ferguson say this) is that there are a number of models from different teams and they all came/come up with similar figures i.e. the wrong ones when compared to real world data.
It's a pathetic justification. It's like averaging the opinion polls. The models need individually critiquing. I don't see why you need multiple models. You just need robust models that are properly scrutinised.
I kinda like Sleepy Joe (apart from the creepy bits), and I feel sorry for a rather doddery but well meaning old man with a sad life story, but I really really doubt he can see out this term, let alone win another won. Bet accordingly
I kinda like Sleepy Joe (apart from the creepy bits), and I feel sorry for a rather doddery but well meaning old man with a sad life story, but I really really doubt he can see out this term, let alone win another won. Bet accordingly
Well, I have just done it, resigned form the conservative party. I know full well it will make no difference. but at least it separates me slightly from the Balls up.
Given that the symptoms of delta variant resemble having a cold am I the only one to wonder what the cold virus originated as ?
A cold can be caused by several different viruses. Most colds are caused by rhinoviruses, which aren't in the same order as coronaviruses. (They are in the same class, as is the polio virus.) About 15% of colds are caused by coronaviruses. Usually early Covid-19 symptoms don't include a runny nose and are similar to flu symptoms, even if SARS is not a flu virus. (Coronaviruses and rhinoviruses aren't even in the same phylum as the influenza viruses - they are further from flu viruses than they are from polio.) Delta symptoms include a runny nose though.
Given that the symptoms of delta variant resemble having a cold am I the only one to wonder what the cold virus originated as ?
Aren’t the symptoms very similar to the other coronavirus variants? Which are definitely different from the cold.
Delta variant symptoms include runny nose and sore throat. Those were not major symptoms previously.
another_richard you're not the only one to speculate that the common cold began as a Covid style coronavirus - nor that Covid19 will end up as another common cold strain once we all have immunity to it.
But those aren’t the only symptoms. There are probably a ton of viruses that can result in a runny nose, it doesn’t automatically mean they are related to the cold.
Indeed but a runny nose was not a major symptom of the original Covid19. Indeed it was quite distinctively so, which was part of what suggested early on if you had it you probably had the cold and not Covid.
This is true, but even before delta some schools were closed because a child had a runny nose - which was then a non-Covid symptom. The sad fact is that public health policy over the past 15 months hasn't included much public education, nor much education of officialdom either.
Best-case scenario: Cases plateau, stage 4 is activated, last covid legal restrictions are annulled.
Worst-case scenario: Cases continue to increase (is this likely given what we have seen in Bolton, and with more vaccinations?) Or that variant of the Delta variant with the extra immune-escape mutation picks up. The twilight zone continues indefinitely.
Either way, I wish someone would nail Boris Johnson for failing to slow down the arrival of Delta from India. Huge, obvious failure.
The thing that worries me is the start of university year in September/October.
We know what happened last year.
Hopefully all the Student Unions will have vaccination clinics running, so that it's really easy for students to be vaccinated if they've not done so already. My daughter falls between three different jurisdictions (England, Wales, Scotland) so no idea what happens if she has a first dose before leaving university halls of residence in England, before returning home to either of her parents (not in England).
My daughter works for a charity helping refugees. One of the people she was helping was a boy from Eritrea. His village had crowdfunded his (rather horrendous) journey here so that he could send money home once he had a job.
Which he couldn't get because of course he was deemed an economic migrant even although he is from a dangeous shithole.
So, tonight, he has hanged himself unable to live with the pressure of having failed his village.
He was 16.
When people talk of hostile environments I want to vomit.
How very sad. A child. Puts our own troubles in perspective.
Kudos to your daughter, though, for wanting to help.
Looks to me like France is in a Delta upswing from a higher base
Possibly.
A much higher base of 12k already in hospital and a much lower base of vaccinated.
Yes. I see no reason why Europe (or America) should avoid delta, just as we did not
We had an imbecile prime minister who allowed it to seed here earlier, and who threw away our vaccine advantage, the EU and the USA have greater vax hesitancy and lower levels of full vaccination (certainly in places) they might be about to throw away their warning time
Delta will surely sweep through every unvaxed or partly vaxed country. Why should it not? Unless they have a superb NZ-style quarantine regime
In terms of what we know, it seems inevitable, although highly vaxxed countries (Canada, Israel) will surely escape it.
Canada's vax campaign is suddenly one of the best in the world. How did they do that?!
They were entirely reliant on exports from the EU, USA, India, etc. Who said they would never export. I guess they paid top dollar
16 week gap between doses. They've literally stopped all second doses which might not be a great idea for Delta.
They're doing second doses faster than almost any other nation on the planet now, and have very few first doses left to do.
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But while he was saying that covid was about to be imported the second time from returning holidaymakers.
Meanwhile the media was obsessing about Bournemouth beach.
Previously, feeling poorly and having a snotty nose was good news, as it meant 'not Covid'. Until today, folk will have still assumed that was the case, and spread their 'cold' instead of self isolating.
Their evidence, amazingly, included a controversial paper in Nature by Fauci's favourite virologist K G Andersen. A man who, two weeks later, got a huge chunk of funding from Fauci, a man who, a year later started frantically deleting his tweets on this subject, and then suddenly vanished altogether
We are incredibly lucky to be born in and live in this part of the world which passes as civilised. We moan about relatively minor restrictions on our activities and social lives for relatively short periods of time and that's ok too. We have a right to. But we should not forget those who face far more brutal choices.
My connection to SkyNet says does not compute....
In my mind, the Government should be doing the same thing with obesity as it has done with smoking - constantly highlighting the risks and the consequences, and what it leads to. Unpleasant maybe and I’m sure the HFSS industry would scream but so did the tobacco industry.
Part of the public inquiry process should be to assemble a panel of disinterested statistics and computing boffins, who have at no point ever worked in epidemiological modelling, to examine the outputs of these models throughout the pandemic, pull their inner workings apart, and establish which (if any) of them was remotely credible.
689 new cases
63 new deaths
325 new hospitalisations (+214) - England was 137
71 new patients in intensive care (+45)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/
https://dashboard.covid19.data.gouv.fr/vue-d-ensemble?location=FRA
Something doesn't look right to me.
Naomi Campbell could hardly have done any worse.
Incidentally, we are now seeing people testing positive after a week in with something else, implying in hospital transmission again, perhaps from asymptomatic staff. I don't think that we can discard our PPE yet, whatever happens outside.
A much higher base of 12k already in hospital and a much lower base of vaccinated.
But don't dare touch that massive stockpile of AZN...
It is a lesson for us all
EDIT: Ooops! Wrong forum!
We had an imbecile prime minister who allowed it to seed here earlier, and who threw away our vaccine advantage, the EU and the USA have greater vax hesitancy and lower levels of full vaccination (certainly in places) they might be about to throw away their warning time
Delta will surely sweep through every unvaxed or partly vaxed country. Why should it not? Unless they have a superb NZ-style quarantine regime
Thus far in the UK... it has not. Yes we're in a much better place on vaccinations. But then much of that "better place" may not have a serious benefit in public health terms.
Their only advantage over the rest of us is that they tend to give more importance to the scientific method than the average opinionator.
Best take today.
https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1404474305094823939
I try to avoid giving 'epidemiological advice' in public, as I don't believe this is my role as a scientist. Then, concerning the current situation in the UK, this feels really easy, as I have no clue what the best strategy may be. All options look a bit rubbish to me.
They were entirely reliant on exports from the EU, USA, India, etc. Who said they would never export. I guess they paid top dollar
The first dose vaccination strategy worked and it works for Delta too as much as people say it doesn't.
By giving one dose to young adults too it strangles the ability of the virus to spread as much where it most commonly does.
Its great that the British experiment on single doses has allowed other nations like Canada to follow.
Of course one of the answers they use to critics (and I have heard Ferguson say this) is that there are a number of models from different teams and they all came/come up with similar figures i.e. the wrong ones when compared to real world data.
https://twitter.com/smotus/status/1404483957647831046?s=20
I know so little of the situation in France that I can only speculate as to why that would be. I do know some months back that it was reported that Wales was sequencing more Covid genomes in a week than France had managed in the whole of the pandemic, or some such extraordinary statistic. Is it simply that their testing infrastructure is poor and they're not detecting the vast bulk of their cases?
In truth, a lot of tests are being conducted in France but the difference between there and the UK does nevertheless seem to be very substantial. Lacking any significant command of the French language I'm struggling slightly with that French Government website, but I think that those 689 confirmed cases must be some kind of special category in France, because the tests page seems to record about 3,800 positive tests today - but, here's the thing: the tests page also appears to suggest that the French have conducted just under 90 million tests in total so far, whereas we're now at 192 million. In terms of today alone, we have carried out just over a million tests whereas France has reported about 375,000.
Put simply, you can't count positive cases to which you are blind.
So more like no testing being processed on a Sunday. Because Covid doesn't spread on weekends or something.
Vaccinated???
Biden was two hours late for his NATO presser. And then he did this
https://twitter.com/EnronChairman/status/1404542019565928456?s=20
I kinda like Sleepy Joe (apart from the creepy bits), and I feel sorry for a rather doddery but well meaning old man with a sad life story, but I really really doubt he can see out this term, let alone win another won. Bet accordingly
@hendopolis
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INDEPENDENT DIGITAL: Summer death toll could hit 40,000 #TomorrowsPapersToday
Kudos to your daughter, though, for wanting to help.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=People+fully+vaccinated&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=USA~GBR~CAN~DEU~ITA~FRA