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With three days to go the best Chesham and Amersham bet – politicalbetting.com
With three days to go the best Chesham and Amersham bet – politicalbetting.com
Although you might not have noticed it if you follow the national media there is a by-election on Thursday which has the potential to cause shockwaves. Chesham and Amersham is the first such contest since Brecon in 2019 where the LDs think they are in with a shout and have been throwing everything at the campaign. Leader Ed Davey has been there almost every day and hundreds of activists from all over the country have been working on the campaign.
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I do know a joke involving C&A from my youth but this is a family friendly website.
Plus I don’t want to trigger the snowflakes, again.
First, rising Nimbyism in the Home Counties in opposition to new greenbelt development leading to a LD protest vote.
Second, Boris cancelling Freedom Day today leading to some Tory libertarians and hospitality business owners and workers voting ReformUK as a protest
They’re hopeless.
David Paton
@cricketwyvern
·
1h
Two other snippets of data from our "early-warning signals":
1. Latest Zoe estimate for England up 2%. We can still expect to see day-to-day ups & downs but clear the rate of increase has dropped significantly. In North West, effectively zero increase today.
David Paton
@cricketwyvern
·
1h
2. NHS triage: latest 7-day average (up to 13th June) is actually down 3% on the day and also slightly lower than a week ago.
David Paton
@cricketwyvern
· 1h
Across the whole of the North West, hospital deaths are averaging around 2 per day despite that being the hardest hit region.
They have had plenty of chances. As you say, they can't finish!
"For much of 2020, Peter Daszak — president of EcoHealth Alliance, longtime partner of the Wuhan Institute of Virology, and one of the most staunch and outspoken critics of the lab-leak theory — insisted that there were no live bats within the Institute. He tweeted in December that, “No BATS ‘were sent to Wuhan lab for genetic analyses of viruses collected in the field’ That’s not how this science works. We collect bat samples, send them to the lab. We RELEASE bats where we catch them!” At some point, Daszak deleted his tweets making that assertion, but if he ever publicly admitted he was wrong, he was awfully quiet about it."
https://twitter.com/jimgeraghty/status/1404418025374326797?s=20
Oh wait, there's a video of bats in the lab
https://twitter.com/OpIndia_com/status/1404372636692406273?s=20
Meanwhile, a chortling Doctor Fauci says that if it was a wild bat that escaped from the the lab then that's just the same as natural zoonosies
https://twitter.com/HansMahncke/status/1404424674122027020?s=20
Is the speaker expecting Boris to miss the Nato meeting
He should only back if:
1. Am immediate enquiry is set up into the conduct of our Covid response.
2. The furlough taper is pushed back a month and special package confirmed for hospitality and arts businesses.
3. There are procedural changes to SAGE to achieve full transparency of membership and deliberation.
4. There is a change in vax policy to shift the AZN stockpile.
Parliament should be prioritised before press conferences.
Really
I understand Hancock is announcing it in the HOC later
He is voting for a tory lockdown, FFS.
Sorry my mistake. They are not standing in Batley and Spen
Tories would argue Labour blocked restrictions, blame them for the virus spreading etc.
He does need to find a way to remind the public that if we'd followed his hotel quarantine plan in Feb -> we would be unlocking on time. Perhaps if he could force a vote on doing that now/add an amendment, he could get the Tories on the record?
Covid in Scotland: “Variant likely to delay lockdown exit by 10 weeks.”
That takes us to the end of summer and we know Johnson follows Sturgeon
They pulled out of batley, iirc
https://twitter.com/Alex4CandA/status/1404345100763795459?s=20
https://twitter.com/reformparty_uk/status/1402584385665355778?s=20
He said "sod this", stood up and off he went. To become a chartered accountant, then to work at CS, then Goldman during the T&T frenzy where he was media analyst and made many, many millions.
And whenever we see each other now, in company, he says "TOPPING and I are friends from the army". He regrets that he didn't join every day and wishes he had.
So yes, I do think they were super sensible. And also, that I was as well.
(Big G will deny this, but better to observe action rather than words).
A successful fighting army does, I suppose, rely on a decent number of unreasonable people in it.
And I don't think I am joking. Perhaps only civil strife will make the government see sense. The people have always had to fight for their freedom
Turned out to be a rubbish tip.
Keeping and finishing the difference.
Now over half of UK adults have had both jabs which should protect against the Indian variant and we are in the height of summer then if as confirmed by Boris tonight we do not fully reopen now I think it unlikely we will fully reopen for the rest of the year
Tempus fugit
Probably just noise...
Probably the effect won't be as big but I still expect some leakage from Tory libertarians and those in the hospitality industry particularly
It would be the same for any PM in the circumstances
And how many times do I have to say I support Rishi
My piss boileth
"On the 21st May 1940, Lance Corporal Nicholls was commanding a section in the right-forward platoon of his company when the company was ordered to counter-attack. At the very start of the advance he was wounded in the arm by shrapnel, but continued to lead his section forward; as the company came over a small ridge, the enemy opened heavy machine-gun fire at close range.
Lance Corporal Nicholls, realising the danger to the company, immediately seized a Bren gun and dashed forward towards the machine-guns, firing from the hip. He succeeded in silencing first one machine-gun and then two other machine-guns, in spite of being again severely wounded.
Lance-Corporal Nicholls then went on up to a higher piece of ground and engaged the German infantry massed behind, causing many casualties, and continuing to fire until he had no more ammunition left.
He was wounded at least four times in all, but absolutely refused to give in. There is no doubt that his gallant action was instrumental in enabling his company to reach its objective, and in causing the enemy to fall back across the River Scheldt.
Lance-corporal Nicholls has since been reported to have been killed in action."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Nicholls
It's Monday, and we aren't.
This represents a mortality rate of around 2000 per million, in the space of two months, in a population average age 23.
https://twitter.com/Rukmini/status/1403563967172153344
Officially, Madhya Pradesh reported just 4,461 Covid deaths between January 1 and May 31 2021. The excess deaths seen in the same period are over 42 times the reported Covid death toll, though the entire excess death toll is not attributable to Covid....
It gives a hint of why scientists might be so concerned about the Delta variant - though clearly the circumstance of Madya Pradesh, and the UK could hardly be more different.
Boris chokingon lifting lockdown means he deserves to lose C&A.
As far as I can tell the Lib Dems are campaigning on NIMBYism and not liberalism against lockdown, so they deserve to lose C&A.
So why can't they both lose? I don't want 'my own team' to win this week, nor do I want the Lib Dems too. If I was a C&A voter I think I'd spoil my ballot paper.
Welcome to the year of the dither as far as the UK PM and Scottish FM are concerned
@kingbongo also suggested Denmark was in an advanced state of reopening.
(I've had a small dabble.)
And the meeting in Brussels has just concluded apparently
I am a reform supporter but even I am not that bullish.
Still waiting for the PM to apologise to the House for his various mendacities.
If I was in C&A I think I'd spoil my ballot by drawing an extra box, writing "End Lockdown" in it, then putting an X against that. I doubt I'd vote ReformUK since there seems to be no attention to them besides antivaxxers and Covid deniers which I don't want to associate with.
Or announce it in the Commons at 6 and do the telly slot in primetime?
So many better possibilities!
I am double vaccinated, and the last jab was more than 2 weeks ago. Either the vaccines work or they don't, either we can leave jail or we can't. Give me a vaccine passport and let me get on with my life, travelling where I want, ditching the masks, flashing the passport so I can have a near-normal life
Why should I tolerate any more lockdown on my liberties, just because some people are too stupid to get injected? Why should I watch businesses in Camden, London, the UK, go under because - again - some people are just dim?
Let the stupid pay with THEIR freedom. If they won't get vaxxed then make sure they can't do anything, by bringing in vaccine passports.
I am going to ignore the rules as much as I can from now on, anyway. I'm not going to wear a mask, if I can help it, I will travel abroad to amber countries and I won't quarantine on returning. I will lie
Interesting analysis.
Is the vaccine winning?
Or is it just noise?
https://twitter.com/dgmoore75/status/1404458017748307968
"Once you delete the NHS test and trace app, you won’t ever be told to isolate by it again. It’s that simple.
#LifeHacks 😉"
https://twitter.com/Adam_Stratford_/status/1404104158064615424?s=20
Spoilt ballots are almost always ignored
Found out today that my daughter's teacher is in isolation after her own daughter tested positive over the weekend. So the class is still going into school this week but with a teaching assistant and the teacher using Zoom to connect with the class.
Weird days still. When Stage 4 occurs I think we need to drop isolation entirely and if it spreads it spreads.
The lack of HD is unforgivable.
Their remote feed audio quality is poor, too
Surprisingly low budget. I’m amazed they haven’t got the basics right.
However, in the wider world, and especially the red wall seats, I expect they could not care less, they just want to hear the PM live on tv