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With three days to go the best Chesham and Amersham bet – politicalbetting.com

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  • DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Will not go beyond the 19th July

    Does anyone believe him? He's a bushitter and liar and when the scientists start banging the drum in three weeks for a further delay he'll give in again and we're stuck in this phase until 2022.
    Yes, it will be blurred into the autumn, then extended into next year. It won't ever go away now

    It's just a question of whether we have the guts to accept an elevated level of risk, or we cower away
    The average Tory voter is about 107, terrified of the virus, spent about 97% of her time sitting at home even before the Plague and doesn't give a shit about the young.

    Kuenssberg asking the right question about July 19th, PM dissembling and wibbling as usual, "confident" that we can reopen on the 19th (which means absolutely nothing,) then prevaricating again.

    He's obviously going to stall again, isn't he?
    He's not going to commit himself until he's got the data. Do you really find that unreasonable?
    3 deaths today of people who tested positive for covid in the past 28 days, THREE. Who may have died anyway.

    This is absolutely ridiculous.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    No to AZ for youngsters.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485



    Not really, sadly. The Lancet report today says that AZ, two weeks after the second dose, is only 60% protective against the Delta variant, while Pfizer is 79% protective.

    We need a tweaked variant for the winter, preferably from the Pfizer yeram.

    The government slides just mentioned protection against severe illness / hospitalization and the numbers are way higher, which is really the important thing. Pfizer upto 98% effective.

    Just one dose definitely looks like an issue.
    There’s a worrying trend whereby the zerocovidians and antivaxxers are merging into one.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    GBNews production values shining through again….though in fairness he did ask the best question so far “AZ for the under-40s”.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Will not go beyond the 19th July

    Does anyone believe him? He's a bushitter and liar and when the scientists start banging the drum in three weeks for a further delay he'll give in again and we're stuck in this phase until 2022.
    Yes, it will be blurred into the autumn, then extended into next year. It won't ever go away now

    It's just a question of whether we have the guts to accept an elevated level of risk, or we cower away
    Right, what countries are worth moving to?
    Greece, Portugal, Thailand are on my list
    Yes, if only we had the right to move anywhere on the continent with no visa or permit.
    You just need to spend half a mill on a property. Doddle
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,804
    And in my WhatsApp group it's already started - first comment - "what's the point of these vaccines?"
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    tlg86 said:

    No to AZ for youngsters.

    Yes, all youngsters should avoid anything Oxford related.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    Floater said:

    "up to 500 deaths a day" is a claim now?

    where is the evidence?

    There is none.

    Otherwise they would have presented it.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    gealbhan said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pretty clear that this is about saving a few lives rather than protecting the NHS.

    Pretty clear the vaccines work. Pretty clear the science says open up. Pretty clear this is clever politics.

    Build a levees and declare victory? Or build a levee, prove it against proper weather, and then declare victory?

    Simply sensible politics. Considering this is a political betting site, some of you are rubbish at politics.
    Exsqueeze me.

    I have been saying for months that with poll ratings as they are the govt would be mad to open up.

    Look at today's poll.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    edited June 2021
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    One in 20 of those currently getting infected end up in hospital. That's a massive proportion. They are mostly fairly young, now (because the jabs are doing their magic). Hospitalisations on that scale are not something the government can simply ignore.

    Citation for that 1/20 figure please.
    https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1404487876851777547

    and

    https://twitter.com/whippletom/status/1404488615829426180

    This is not now about protecting oldies. It's about protecting the as-yet unvaccinated (and the NHS from overload, again).
    That's completely fucking useless without context though, how many of those are unvaxxed by choice? What does 4 weeks buy us if they are vaccine refusers. They aren't going to suddenly take the vaccine.
    From https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-data-that-delayed-the-end-of-lockdown-hbv5tcx3c?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1623688678

    New data published in The Lancet this afternoon suggests that being infected with the Indian variant carries an 85 per cent increased risk of hospitalisation, compared with the Kent strain.

    The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) believes that about one in 20 of those infected at present end up in hospital. Those being admitted tend to be younger, though, largely in the groups not fully vaccinated — although inevitably there will be some vaccine failures.

    Now granted we know how to read the data so want something a lot more granular than that but you can see why Boris is panicking a bit.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,996
    edited June 2021
    Does GBNews read PB?

    As for the answer, Sid in the warehouse must be pulling his hair out....another few million on their way, the warehouse is full, the canteen fridge is full, his home fridge is full, all his neighbours fridges are full....
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    This is preparation for a nation in perpetual lockdown

    Covid will always be with us, it will always take out the old and vulnerable, no vaccine is perfect

    If we can't cope with it now, we will never be ready to cope. We're fucked

    Sooner or later the Tory Party will remove Boris from power and put in a leader who will unlock... I can see this ending badly for Boris...
    Maybe.

    How much damage will have been done to the nation's finances by then?

    What would the new leader be able to offer Britons?
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385

    GBNews production values shining through again….though in fairness he did ask the best question so far “AZ for the under-40s”.

    He sounded like he was in a corridor.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,804
    edited June 2021

    alex_ said:

    Johnson can’t be confident the extensions won’t be retained beyond July 19th, if he can’t properly articulate the reasons why the extensions aren’t being lifted now.

    I think Johnson's whole position is now set on July 19, and if he backs out on that he needs to go or be removed.
    Steve Baker needs to start getting the letters ready and building alliances to replace Boris from now. Get all the letter ready and put Boris on notice that the 19th is it, any further delay will result in his ritual sacrifice by the regicidal wing of the party.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    One in 20 of those currently getting infected end up in hospital. That's a massive proportion. They are mostly fairly young, now (because the jabs are doing their magic). Hospitalisations on that scale are not something the government can simply ignore.

    Citation for that 1/20 figure please.
    https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1404487876851777547

    and

    https://twitter.com/whippletom/status/1404488615829426180

    This is not now about protecting oldies. It's about protecting the as-yet unvaccinated (and the NHS from overload, again).
    That's completely fucking useless without context though, how many of those are unvaxxed by choice? What does 4 weeks buy us if they are vaccine refusers. They aren't going to suddenly take the vaccine.
    I think a lot of them are over-40s or late 30s who haven't had both jabs (or, in some cases, the first).
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    GBNews production values shining through again….though in fairness he did ask the best question so far “AZ for the under-40s”.

    Indeed. Excellent question to be fair.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,817
    Those naughty people on Apple News just sent me a message saying Coronavirus notification. When I opened it, it turned out to be about Boris's wittering. Next time I get a Coronavirus notification I am just going to ignore it.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Does GBNews read PB?

    The AZ question I take it?

    I'm sure you loved the response. Basically, we're shitting ourselves that the hospitals will be swamped and keeping chunks of the economy under the cosh or totally shuttered accordingly, but we're quite happy to leave warehouses full of AZ jabs to gather dust. Good innit?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,034
    Boris

    July 19th is a terminal date

    Many would say it could be a personal one
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    The FT guy going on foreign summer holidays should be kicked in the shins.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    tlg86 said:

    No to AZ for youngsters.

    Wasn’t it a bit more nuanced? “It’s kept under review as the risk ratio changes”.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    edited June 2021
    Why does Jim Pickard and so many other journos in this presser have a better picture quality from their homes and offices than GB News?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,996

    GBNews production values shining through again….though in fairness he did ask the best question so far “AZ for the under-40s”.

    Indeed. Excellent question to be fair.
    And now to the "serious" newspaper...the FT....what about my summer holiday....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    Pulpstar said:

    When restrictions are fully released it'll be like a champagne cork popping with regards to clubs and gigs.

    What, by their official receivers?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    edited June 2021
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    One in 20 of those currently getting infected end up in hospital. That's a massive proportion. They are mostly fairly young, now (because the jabs are doing their magic). Hospitalisations on that scale are not something the government can simply ignore.

    Citation for that 1/20 figure please.
    https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1404487876851777547

    and

    https://twitter.com/whippletom/status/1404488615829426180

    This is not now about protecting oldies. It's about protecting the as-yet unvaccinated (and the NHS from overload, again).
    Whitty and Vallance just said we can offer a jab to all adults by mid July, and double jab all the over 18s by the end of the summer - if I heard correctly

    Given the huge difference between one jab and two, in efficacy, I do not see how they can fully reopen on July 19, as promised. That is too risky for the single jabbed (unless the virus weirdly dies out, hitting the large numbers of vaccinated)

    In September we will have new variants and seasonal revival.

    I really do think restrictions are with us right over the summer, and into 2022, and possibly beyond

    To give a straw to clutch at, Vallance did mention about the over 40s and hospitalisation. That's something Malmesbury has noted in the figures.
    He's also mentioned that there's not muich more benefit in terms of vaccination going past that.

    I get the impression Vallance is more pro opening up than Whitty...
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    alex_ said:

    tlg86 said:

    Vallance saying that the four week delay (except Weddings!) is in the Goldilocks zone.

    What does that mean?
    Not too hot, not too cold?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,996
    edited June 2021
    Incredible decision not to want to use AZN....we are told one dose isn't very protective....the JCVI made their decision on not using AZN for under 40s based upon the situation at the time, no Indian variant....and even then they said only if it doesn't delay the roll out.

    The situation is now radically different. Cases are rising, especially in the young, and we need to get 2 doses into as many people as possible as quickly as possible to try and limit the spread.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,215
    MaxPB said:

    alex_ said:

    Johnson can’t be confident the extensions won’t be retained beyond July 19th, if he can’t properly articulate the reasons why the extensions aren’t being lifted now.

    I think Johnson's whole position is now set on July 19, and if he backs out on that he needs to go or be removed.
    Steve Baker needs to start getting the letters ready and building alliances to replace Boris from now. Get all the letter ready and put Boris on notice that the 19th is it, any further delay will result in his ritual sacrifice by the regicidal wing of the party.
    I don't think that Baker would have the numbers and who is to say that a replacement would do any different when this is what the public wants.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    tlg86 said:

    No to AZ for youngsters.

    Yes but they didn’t explain why.

    If you think about it, if the blood clot risk is still higher than the alternative, then why are we not re-opening as planned?
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Will not go beyond the 19th July

    Does anyone believe him? He's a bushitter and liar and when the scientists start banging the drum in three weeks for a further delay he'll give in again and we're stuck in this phase until 2022.
    Yes, it will be blurred into the autumn, then extended into next year. It won't ever go away now

    It's just a question of whether we have the guts to accept an elevated level of risk, or we cower away
    Right, what countries are worth moving to?
    Palau
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175

    tlg86 said:

    No to AZ for youngsters.

    Yes but they didn’t explain why.

    If you think about it, if the blood clot risk is still higher than the alternative, then why are we not re-opening as planned?
    Precisely.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    One in 20 of those currently getting infected end up in hospital. That's a massive proportion. They are mostly fairly young, now (because the jabs are doing their magic). Hospitalisations on that scale are not something the government can simply ignore.

    Citation for that 1/20 figure please.
    https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1404487876851777547

    and

    https://twitter.com/whippletom/status/1404488615829426180

    This is not now about protecting oldies. It's about protecting the as-yet unvaccinated (and the NHS from overload, again).
    That's completely fucking useless without context though, how many of those are unvaxxed by choice? What does 4 weeks buy us if they are vaccine refusers. They aren't going to suddenly take the vaccine.
    Is this the bit where it's revealed you've been chatting shite on here for weeks/months?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191

    tlg86 said:

    No to AZ for youngsters.

    Yes but they didn’t explain why.

    If you think about it, if the blood clot risk is still higher than the alternative, then why are we not re-opening as planned?
    You can have a shorter time gap with Pfizer or Moderna. Also it's not being shouted out from the rooftops for obvious reasons but Pfizer and Moderna are better than Astra.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,034
    Evening standard only 36% of Londoners have second dose
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,627

    Has the PM said anything about the WFH directive?

    Because if vaccines aren't breaking the link....

    "Not breaking the link" sounds like a misleading phrase. For example if the risk of dying for unvaccinated people was 10%, and the risk of dying for vaccinated people was 0.1%, there would still be a 'link' between infection and death.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    edited June 2021
    Stocky said:

    MaxPB said:

    alex_ said:

    Johnson can’t be confident the extensions won’t be retained beyond July 19th, if he can’t properly articulate the reasons why the extensions aren’t being lifted now.

    I think Johnson's whole position is now set on July 19, and if he backs out on that he needs to go or be removed.
    Steve Baker needs to start getting the letters ready and building alliances to replace Boris from now. Get all the letter ready and put Boris on notice that the 19th is it, any further delay will result in his ritual sacrifice by the regicidal wing of the party.
    I don't think that Baker would have the numbers and who is to say that a replacement would do any different when this is what the public wants.
    Maybe the key move here isn't the extension, its the end of the furlough scheme. As you highlighted.

    Maybe the government realises its got to ease off the comfort zone???
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,996

    Evening standard only 36% of Londoners have second dose

    Build a wall around the M25....
  • pingping Posts: 3,805

    The FT guy going on foreign summer holidays should be kicked in the shins.

    Kicked in the shins for asking a question?

    You’re rather unpleasant.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Incredible decision not to want to use AZN....we are told one dose isn't very protective....the JCVI made their decision on not using AZN for under 40s based upon the situation at the time, no Indian variant....and even then they said only if it doesn't delay the roll out.

    The situation is now radically different. Cases are rising, especially in the young, and we need to get 2 doses into as many people as possible as quickly as possible to try and limit the spread.

    Rollout hasn't been delayed.

    Target date to rollout to all over 18s was at the time 31 July.

    They're now saying it will be offered to all by 19 July.

    That's 12 days ahead of schedule, not behind schedule.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822
    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Will not go beyond the 19th July

    Does anyone believe him? He's a bushitter and liar and when the scientists start banging the drum in three weeks for a further delay he'll give in again and we're stuck in this phase until 2022.
    Yes, it will be blurred into the autumn, then extended into next year. It won't ever go away now

    It's just a question of whether we have the guts to accept an elevated level of risk, or we cower away
    Right, what countries are worth moving to?
    Greece, Portugal, Thailand are on my list
    Portugal in the lead so far.
    Yes. In terms of pure beauty, Greece wins easily. And I love the simple but delicious food.

    Portugal is a bit more practical but still lovely

    A weird one but not keen on non latin alphabets! Quite restrictive.
    Not if you learn them.
    Of course, but it feels a lot more realistic to learn a new language with a familiar alphabet than learning both a language and their alphabet. Lots of moves abroad fail because of language so learning Portuguese would be favourable to learning Greek or Thai for me.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,996
    Sorry to keep spamming...but could any over 50s answer this.

    When you booked through the NHS site and they reduced the maximum time to 8 weeks. Did the NHS contact you or did you have to go onto the website, cancel and rebook?
  • ridaligoridaligo Posts: 174
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Will not go beyond the 19th July

    Does anyone believe him? He's a bushitter and liar and when the scientists start banging the drum in three weeks for a further delay he'll give in again and we're stuck in this phase until 2022.
    Yes, it will be blurred into the autumn, then extended into next year. It won't ever go away now

    It's just a question of whether we have the guts to accept an elevated level of risk, or we cower away
    As a nation the UK has lost it. The wretched scientists have turned people into craven idiots begging for politicians to keep our freedoms from us under the guise of a few old people dying of a respiratory disease.

    Fuck all of those wankers who support this.
    Beautifully put ... seconded.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    One in 20 of those currently getting infected end up in hospital. That's a massive proportion. They are mostly fairly young, now (because the jabs are doing their magic). Hospitalisations on that scale are not something the government can simply ignore.

    Citation for that 1/20 figure please.
    https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1404487876851777547

    and

    https://twitter.com/whippletom/status/1404488615829426180

    This is not now about protecting oldies. It's about protecting the as-yet unvaccinated (and the NHS from overload, again).
    That's completely fucking useless without context though, how many of those are unvaxxed by choice? What does 4 weeks buy us if they are vaccine refusers. They aren't going to suddenly take the vaccine.
    Is this the bit where it's revealed you've been chatting shite on here for weeks/months?
    It's the elephant in the room. I can understand wanting to wait four weeks purely to increase the number of second doses. But the big risk is to those with no dose. And they are not going to suddenly decide to get jabbed because of this delay.

    At some point we have to accept that they are going to be exposed to COVID.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,996
    edited June 2021

    Incredible decision not to want to use AZN....we are told one dose isn't very protective....the JCVI made their decision on not using AZN for under 40s based upon the situation at the time, no Indian variant....and even then they said only if it doesn't delay the roll out.

    The situation is now radically different. Cases are rising, especially in the young, and we need to get 2 doses into as many people as possible as quickly as possible to try and limit the spread.

    Rollout hasn't been delayed.

    Target date to rollout to all over 18s was at the time 31 July.

    They're now saying it will be offered to all by 19 July.

    That's 12 days ahead of schedule, not behind schedule.
    It is constraining the roll out though and the world has shifted now. The new variant is significantly more problematic. Being 12 days ahead of schedule isn't enough now. We should have been blasting through those extra 6 million doses weeks ago. If we had started a month ago, come one, come all, get your AZN, and we could be 2nd dosing them by July i.e. New Freedom Day.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,958

    GB NEWS KLAXON

    Wouldn't surprise me if they had an actual klaxon (WWII vintage)
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    No to AZ for youngsters.

    Yes but they didn’t explain why.

    If you think about it, if the blood clot risk is still higher than the alternative, then why are we not re-opening as planned?
    You can have a shorter time gap with Pfizer or Moderna. Also it's not being shouted out from the rooftops for obvious reasons but Pfizer and Moderna are better than Astra.
    They're not better so much as quicker (which is of course a key point at the moment).
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited June 2021
    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    No to AZ for youngsters.

    Yes but they didn’t explain why.

    If you think about it, if the blood clot risk is still higher than the alternative, then why are we not re-opening as planned?
    You can have a shorter time gap with Pfizer or Moderna. Also it's not being shouted out from the rooftops for obvious reasons but Pfizer and Moderna are better than Astra.
    But any vaccine is better than no vaccine.
    That’s what we learned earlier.

    And supply is no issue. I’m not due for my second Moderna jab until mid-July.

    Also, why are we not doing mix-and-match?

    It feels like the govt feels there is essentially no cost to continuing restrictions.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    edited June 2021

    Has the PM said anything about the WFH directive?

    Because if vaccines aren't breaking the link....

    "Not breaking the link" sounds like a misleading phrase. For example if the risk of dying for unvaccinated people was 10%, and the risk of dying for vaccinated people was 0.1%, there would still be a 'link' between infection and death.
    It's a nightmare, last we changed our return to the office date from the 5th of July to the 26th of July, and now we're not sure what to do.

    One of the many reasons we've survived the plague is that our firm has put the safety of staff first, we have plans that are now once again messed around.

    I worked my arse off on making sure it all went swimmingly, now the PM have ruined that, again.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Pulpstar said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    One in 20 of those currently getting infected end up in hospital. That's a massive proportion. They are mostly fairly young, now (because the jabs are doing their magic). Hospitalisations on that scale are not something the government can simply ignore.

    Citation for that 1/20 figure please.
    https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1404487876851777547

    and

    https://twitter.com/whippletom/status/1404488615829426180

    This is not now about protecting oldies. It's about protecting the as-yet unvaccinated (and the NHS from overload, again).
    Whitty and Vallance just said we can offer a jab to all adults by mid July, and double jab all the over 18s by the end of the summer - if I heard correctly

    Given the huge difference between one jab and two, in efficacy, I do not see how they can fully reopen on July 19, as promised. That is too risky for the single jabbed (unless the virus weirdly dies out, hitting the large numbers of vaccinated)

    In September we will have new variants and seasonal revival.

    I really do think restrictions are with us right over the summer, and into 2022, and possibly beyond

    To give a straw to clutch at, Vallance did mention about the over 40s and hospitalisation. That's something Malmesbury has noted in the figures.
    He's also mentioned that there's not muich more benefit in terms of vaccination going past that.

    I get the impression Vallance is more pro opening up than Whitty...
    Definitely. Whitty always looks like a scared mouse.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    alex_ said:

    Johnson can’t be confident the extensions won’t be retained beyond July 19th, if he can’t properly articulate the reasons why the extensions aren’t being lifted now.

    I think Johnson's whole position is now set on July 19, and if he backs out on that he needs to go or be removed.
    He will back out of it. There will be more excuses.

    The "not 100% effective" argument keeps getting repeated over and over again. All this means is that the junk data generators at SPI-M just have to make up numbers suggesting that people for whom the vaccines don't work will be enough to overwhelm the NHS if we unlock, and this will go on forever.

    Not that we'll get to 100% vaccination, or very close to it. The remaining holdout anti-vaxxers will be used to justify masks and social distancing for the rest of time as well.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    Sorry to keep spamming...but could any over 50s answer this.

    When you booked through the NHS site and they reduced the maximum time to 8 weeks. Did the NHS contact you or did you have to go onto the website, cancel and rebook?

    Cancel and rebook - takes about 60 seconds.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited June 2021
    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    No to AZ for youngsters.

    Yes but they didn’t explain why.

    If you think about it, if the blood clot risk is still higher than the alternative, then why are we not re-opening as planned?
    You can have a shorter time gap with Pfizer or Moderna. Also it's not being shouted out from the rooftops for obvious reasons but Pfizer and Moderna are better than Astra.
    It must be pretty likely that the AZ cohort get prioritised for the booster, when supplies are ready.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,001
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    One in 20 of those currently getting infected end up in hospital. That's a massive proportion. They are mostly fairly young, now (because the jabs are doing their magic). Hospitalisations on that scale are not something the government can simply ignore.

    Citation for that 1/20 figure please.
    https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1404487876851777547

    and

    https://twitter.com/whippletom/status/1404488615829426180

    This is not now about protecting oldies. It's about protecting the as-yet unvaccinated (and the NHS from overload, again).
    That's completely fucking useless without context though, how many of those are unvaxxed by choice? What does 4 weeks buy us if they are vaccine refusers. They aren't going to suddenly take the vaccine.
    Why do you seem so convinced that the increase in the 18-54 group is down to the older members of that group who have refused vaccination?
    We haven’t seen that in the older groups, and we know that the increase in cases is overwhelmingly in younger people - who have never been invulnerable. We’ve had considerable numbers of younger people hospitalised before; why would they not be hospitalised now?
    They’re significantly less likely to be hospitalised, but that’s not the same as “will not be hospitalised”.

    The reduction in the ratio of hospitalisations to cases and the spiralling cases in the youngest adults is exactly what we’d see if they were the primary source of the hospitalisations. Given that the majority of cases is in the under-54s now (unlike before), unless vaccine refusal is hugely different between 45-55 and 55-65, it seems to be the more unlikely option that they’re all antivaxxers.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Vaccine Passports would have solved much of this. Forcing people to take the jab if they want to function

    This fucking spineless government. Grrrrr
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631

    Sorry to keep spamming...but could any over 50s answer this.

    When you booked through the NHS site and they reduced the maximum time to 8 weeks. Did the NHS contact you or did you have to go onto the website, cancel and rebook?

    Are you booked at a centre of GP surgery?
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    No to AZ for youngsters.

    Yes but they didn’t explain why.

    If you think about it, if the blood clot risk is still higher than the alternative, then why are we not re-opening as planned?
    You can have a shorter time gap with Pfizer or Moderna. Also it's not being shouted out from the rooftops for obvious reasons but Pfizer and Moderna are better than Astra.
    Anything is better than lockdown
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,627

    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Will not go beyond the 19th July

    Does anyone believe him? He's a bushitter and liar and when the scientists start banging the drum in three weeks for a further delay he'll give in again and we're stuck in this phase until 2022.
    Yes, it will be blurred into the autumn, then extended into next year. It won't ever go away now

    It's just a question of whether we have the guts to accept an elevated level of risk, or we cower away
    Right, what countries are worth moving to?
    Greece, Portugal, Thailand are on my list
    Portugal in the lead so far.
    Yes. In terms of pure beauty, Greece wins easily. And I love the simple but delicious food.

    Portugal is a bit more practical but still lovely

    A weird one but not keen on non latin alphabets! Quite restrictive.
    Not if you learn them.
    Of course, but it feels a lot more realistic to learn a new language with a familiar alphabet than learning both a language and their alphabet. Lots of moves abroad fail because of language so learning Portuguese would be favourable to learning Greek or Thai for me.
    This is how the US State Department rates the difficulty of learning various European languages for a native English speaker.

    image
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    Has the PM said anything about the WFH directive?

    Because if vaccines aren't breaking the link....

    "Not breaking the link" sounds like a misleading phrase. For example if the risk of dying for unvaccinated people was 10%, and the risk of dying for vaccinated people was 0.1%, there would still be a 'link' between infection and death.
    Indeed. It’s a bloody stupid phrase for exactly that reason.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Has the PM said anything about the WFH directive?

    Because if vaccines aren't breaking the link....

    "Not breaking the link" sounds like a misleading phrase. For example if the risk of dying for unvaccinated people was 10%, and the risk of dying for vaccinated people was 0.1%, there would still be a 'link' between infection and death.
    It's a nightmare, last we changed our return to the office date from the 5th of July to the 26th of July, and now we're not sure what to do.

    One of the many reasons we've survived the plague is that our firm has put the safety of staff first, we have plans that are now once again messed around.

    I worked my arse off on making sure it all went swimmingly, now the PM have ruined that, again.
    If you're waiting for the Government you'll still be WFH this time next year.

    Though spare a thought for the nightclub owners. They might as well all give up now.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,996

    Sorry to keep spamming...but could any over 50s answer this.

    When you booked through the NHS site and they reduced the maximum time to 8 weeks. Did the NHS contact you or did you have to go onto the website, cancel and rebook?

    Cancel and rebook - takes about 60 seconds.
    Fingers crossed....I tried that last week and I couldn't get it sooner than 10 weeks. Hoping I can now.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    Leon said:

    Vaccine Passports would have solved much of this. Forcing people to take the jab if they want to function

    This fucking spineless government. Grrrrr

    Can we go on holiday yet?!
  • A slightly nasty comment here but it's not meant to be.

    Sometimes you can really see why Boris Johnson failed to get a First.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Incredible decision not to want to use AZN....we are told one dose isn't very protective....the JCVI made their decision on not using AZN for under 40s based upon the situation at the time, no Indian variant....and even then they said only if it doesn't delay the roll out.

    The situation is now radically different. Cases are rising, especially in the young, and we need to get 2 doses into as many people as possible as quickly as possible to try and limit the spread.

    Rollout hasn't been delayed.

    Target date to rollout to all over 18s was at the time 31 July.

    They're now saying it will be offered to all by 19 July.

    That's 12 days ahead of schedule, not behind schedule.
    It is constraining the roll out though and the world has shifted now. The new variant is significantly more problematic. Being 12 days ahead of schedule isn't enough now. We should have been blasting through those extra 6 million doses weeks ago.
    Its not delayed rollout. They were specific about 31 July.

    Besides considering all 23+ are now eligible for a jab, and in much of the high-risk areas all over 18s are already being offered it, then its really disingenuous to say that its being delayed.

    Pfizer works faster than AZN too, so its really too late to use AZN now.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    What Boris Johnson should have said is

    'If you don't get vaccinated as soon as possible then you're going to die, we're not going lockdown for you antivaxxer fuckers again after the 19th of July,'
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    MaxPB said:

    alex_ said:

    Johnson can’t be confident the extensions won’t be retained beyond July 19th, if he can’t properly articulate the reasons why the extensions aren’t being lifted now.

    I think Johnson's whole position is now set on July 19, and if he backs out on that he needs to go or be removed.
    Steve Baker needs to start getting the letters ready and building alliances to replace Boris from now. Get all the letter ready and put Boris on notice that the 19th is it, any further delay will result in his ritual sacrifice by the regicidal wing of the party.
    Priti Patel would be my first choice for leader.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,627

    Has the PM said anything about the WFH directive?

    Because if vaccines aren't breaking the link....

    "Not breaking the link" sounds like a misleading phrase. For example if the risk of dying for unvaccinated people was 10%, and the risk of dying for vaccinated people was 0.1%, there would still be a 'link' between infection and death.
    It's a nightmare, last we changed our return to the office date from the 5th of July to the 26th of July, and now we're not sure what to do.

    One of the many reasons we've survived the plague is that our firm has put the safety of staff first, we have plans that are now once again messed around.

    I worked my arse off on making sure it all went swimmingly, now the PM have ruined that, again.
    They could dust off the plan to move you to Frankfurt?
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385

    Sorry to keep spamming...but could any over 50s answer this.

    When you booked through the NHS site and they reduced the maximum time to 8 weeks. Did the NHS contact you or did you have to go onto the website, cancel and rebook?

    Cancel and rebook - takes about 60 seconds.
    I was contacted by my surgery.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631

    A slightly nasty comment here but it's not meant to be.

    Sometimes you can really see why Boris Johnson failed to get a First.

    You can see why he had a go at girly swots.
  • What Boris Johnson should have said is

    'If you don't get vaccinated as soon as possible then you're going to die, we're not going lockdown for you antivaxxer fuckers again after the 19th of July,'

    To which I would add, like Leon, that they should say to everyone else: your vaccine passport is your price for everything else in your life being free.

    It's a very very small price to pay.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    edited June 2021

    Does GBNews read PB?

    The AZ question I take it?

    I'm sure you loved the response. Basically, we're shitting ourselves that the hospitals will be swamped and keeping chunks of the economy under the cosh or totally shuttered accordingly, but we're quite happy to leave warehouses full of AZ jabs to gather dust. Good innit?
    What is their problem with using it?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    ping said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    No to AZ for youngsters.

    Yes but they didn’t explain why.

    If you think about it, if the blood clot risk is still higher than the alternative, then why are we not re-opening as planned?
    You can have a shorter time gap with Pfizer or Moderna. Also it's not being shouted out from the rooftops for obvious reasons but Pfizer and Moderna are better than Astra.
    It must be pretty likely that the AZ cohort get prioritised for the booster, when supplies are ready.
    They will be, sort of - it'll be done down by age with people being offered a different vaccination to the type they have right now.
    So Pfizer people get Astra and vice versa. Or they might just go through straight Pfizer again. Either way it gets the crucial Astra -> Pfizer numbers up which are needed for true herd immunity.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    What Boris Johnson should have said is

    'If you don't get vaccinated as soon as possible then you're going to die, we're not going lockdown for you antivaxxer fuckers again after the 19th of July,'

    To which I would add, like Leon, that they should say to everyone else: your vaccine passport is your price for everything else in your life being free.

    It's a very very small price to pay.
    Bollocks.

    Just let people live their lives. I don't need a nanny state scanning a QR code telling me how to live my life, just lift lockdown and let us choose.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Will not go beyond the 19th July

    Does anyone believe him? He's a bushitter and liar and when the scientists start banging the drum in three weeks for a further delay he'll give in again and we're stuck in this phase until 2022.
    Yes, it will be blurred into the autumn, then extended into next year. It won't ever go away now

    It's just a question of whether we have the guts to accept an elevated level of risk, or we cower away
    Right, what countries are worth moving to?
    Greece, Portugal, Thailand are on my list
    Portugal in the lead so far.
    Yes. In terms of pure beauty, Greece wins easily. And I love the simple but delicious food.

    Portugal is a bit more practical but still lovely

    A weird one but not keen on non latin alphabets! Quite restrictive.
    It would take you one morning to learn the Greek alphabet; only 20 letters, some you must know anyway (pi for starters) and some look like the Latin equivalent. So say 12 or 13 genuinely new bits of information to ingest.

    For Arabic you can have a week
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,523

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Will not go beyond the 19th July

    Does anyone believe him? He's a bushitter and liar and when the scientists start banging the drum in three weeks for a further delay he'll give in again and we're stuck in this phase until 2022.
    Yes, it will be blurred into the autumn, then extended into next year. It won't ever go away now

    It's just a question of whether we have the guts to accept an elevated level of risk, or we cower away
    As a nation the UK has lost it. The wretched scientists have turned people into craven idiots begging for politicians to keep our freedoms from us under the guise of a few old people dying of a respiratory disease.

    Fuck all of those wankers who support this.
    Perhaps the "few old people" you mention might have an opinion on that?
    They used to die of the flu and no one gave a shit, not even them. COVID has just replaced the flu now they're vaccinated. If they choose not to be then that's really on them.
    I used to get a cold or flu now and again in my 50s, and I didn't die, whereas if I had caught the rona I probably would have been pushing up the daisies.
    You may not have died of flu (thankfully) but in 2018 25,000 people did.

    Now I agreed entirely with the lockdowns to date but it is truly getting ridiculous now.

    Will we be locking down in 2023 if we get a bad flu winter? If not then why are we still locking down now given we have a vaccine far more effective than anything we have ever had for flu?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631

    Has the PM said anything about the WFH directive?

    Because if vaccines aren't breaking the link....

    "Not breaking the link" sounds like a misleading phrase. For example if the risk of dying for unvaccinated people was 10%, and the risk of dying for vaccinated people was 0.1%, there would still be a 'link' between infection and death.
    It's a nightmare, last we changed our return to the office date from the 5th of July to the 26th of July, and now we're not sure what to do.

    One of the many reasons we've survived the plague is that our firm has put the safety of staff first, we have plans that are now once again messed around.

    I worked my arse off on making sure it all went swimmingly, now the PM have ruined that, again.
    They could dust off the plan to move you to Frankfurt?
    That was updated, first choice is Amsterdam, then Dublin, and then Frankfurt.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557

    Why does Jim Pickard and so many other journos in this presser have a better picture quality from their homes and offices than GB News?

    It's strange because the YouTube videos that GB News put out over the last few weeks before the launch were in HD.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    ping said:

    The FT guy going on foreign summer holidays should be kicked in the shins.

    Kicked in the shins for asking a question?

    You’re rather unpleasant.
    There were a hundred better questions he could have asked
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Poland defeated 2-1 by Slovakia.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,150
    MaxPB said:

    Will not go beyond the 19th July

    Does anyone believe him? He's a bushitter and liar and when the scientists start banging the drum in three weeks for a further delay he'll give in again and we're stuck in this phase until 2022.
    Unless I have something wrong, unlocking up until today's adjustment precisely followed the plan from April.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,913
    MaxPB said:

    alex_ said:

    Johnson can’t be confident the extensions won’t be retained beyond July 19th, if he can’t properly articulate the reasons why the extensions aren’t being lifted now.

    I think Johnson's whole position is now set on July 19, and if he backs out on that he needs to go or be removed.
    Steve Baker needs to start getting the letters ready and building alliances to replace Boris from now. Get all the letter ready and put Boris on notice that the 19th is it, any further delay will result in his ritual sacrifice by the regicidal wing of the party.
    Why choose a particular date and invest all your political credibility in it when we could easily have an variant that could make sticking to that date an extremely bad idea.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    One in 20 of those currently getting infected end up in hospital. That's a massive proportion. They are mostly fairly young, now (because the jabs are doing their magic). Hospitalisations on that scale are not something the government can simply ignore.

    Citation for that 1/20 figure please.
    https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1404487876851777547

    and

    https://twitter.com/whippletom/status/1404488615829426180

    This is not now about protecting oldies. It's about protecting the as-yet unvaccinated (and the NHS from overload, again).
    That's completely fucking useless without context though, how many of those are unvaxxed by choice? What does 4 weeks buy us if they are vaccine refusers. They aren't going to suddenly take the vaccine.
    Why do you seem so convinced that the increase in the 18-54 group is down to the older members of that group who have refused vaccination?
    We haven’t seen that in the older groups, and we know that the increase in cases is overwhelmingly in younger people - who have never been invulnerable. We’ve had considerable numbers of younger people hospitalised before; why would they not be hospitalised now?
    They’re significantly less likely to be hospitalised, but that’s not the same as “will not be hospitalised”.

    The reduction in the ratio of hospitalisations to cases and the spiralling cases in the youngest adults is exactly what we’d see if they were the primary source of the hospitalisations. Given that the majority of cases is in the under-54s now (unlike before), unless vaccine refusal is hugely different between 45-55 and 55-65, it seems to be the more unlikely option that they’re all antivaxxers.
    Andy for the past 15 months there was a small number of young people being hospitalised and almost none dying.

    Why is this changing? Delta?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    Andy_JS said:

    Why does Jim Pickard and so many other journos in this presser have a better picture quality from their homes and offices than GB News?

    It's strange because the YouTube videos that GB News put out over the last few weeks before the launch were in HD.
    I think it is a couple of things.

    I suspect they are using 720p HD and also using a lower compression/bitrate on Sky which means they are technically broadcasting in HD but not the full works 1080p HD.
  • What Boris Johnson should have said is

    'If you don't get vaccinated as soon as possible then you're going to die, we're not going lockdown for you antivaxxer fuckers again after the 19th of July,'

    To which I would add, like Leon, that they should say to everyone else: your vaccine passport is your price for everything else in your life being free.

    It's a very very small price to pay.
    Bollocks.

    Just let people live their lives. I don't need a nanny state scanning a QR code telling me how to live my life, just lift lockdown and let us choose.
    The problem with purists like you is that you don't live in the real world.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,913
    edited June 2021
    'Demand Better' is considerably more coherent than 'Build back better' which sounds like it was conceived by an illiterate moron.

    'Winning Here' had a certain something but it suffered from accuracy problems

  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    What Boris Johnson should have said is

    'If you don't get vaccinated as soon as possible then you're going to die, we're not going lockdown for you antivaxxer fuckers again after the 19th of July,'

    To which I would add, like Leon, that they should say to everyone else: your vaccine passport is your price for everything else in your life being free.

    It's a very very small price to pay.
    Bollocks.

    Just let people live their lives. I don't need a nanny state scanning a QR code telling me how to live my life, just lift lockdown and let us choose.
    A vaxport allows you to do all of that. You sacrifice one freedom, allowing HMG to know where you are, in return for so many more freedoms, and a liberated economy. Everything could open up to the vaxporters. Theeatres, clubs, bars where you can stand!

    Israel did it, and we all admired how well they deconfined. We have to copy. It's the same as ID cards in the war. We got rid of them after the war (eventually)
  • Were it not for my teenage son I'd prepare now to move abroad. Unfortunately I can't really do so just yet.

    There will not be a return of all freedoms.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647

    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Will not go beyond the 19th July

    Does anyone believe him? He's a bushitter and liar and when the scientists start banging the drum in three weeks for a further delay he'll give in again and we're stuck in this phase until 2022.
    Yes, it will be blurred into the autumn, then extended into next year. It won't ever go away now

    It's just a question of whether we have the guts to accept an elevated level of risk, or we cower away
    Right, what countries are worth moving to?
    Greece, Portugal, Thailand are on my list
    Portugal in the lead so far.
    Yes. In terms of pure beauty, Greece wins easily. And I love the simple but delicious food.

    Portugal is a bit more practical but still lovely

    A weird one but not keen on non latin alphabets! Quite restrictive.
    Not if you learn them.
    Of course, but it feels a lot more realistic to learn a new language with a familiar alphabet than learning both a language and their alphabet. Lots of moves abroad fail because of language so learning Portuguese would be favourable to learning Greek or Thai for me.
    This is how the US State Department rates the difficulty of learning various European languages for a native English speaker.

    image
    Though in Malta or Cyprus English is so universal that you can take your time over it.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    What Boris Johnson should have said is

    'If you don't get vaccinated as soon as possible then you're going to die, we're not going lockdown for you antivaxxer fuckers again after the 19th of July,'

    To which I would add, like Leon, that they should say to everyone else: your vaccine passport is your price for everything else in your life being free.

    It's a very very small price to pay.
    Bollocks.

    Just let people live their lives. I don't need a nanny state scanning a QR code telling me how to live my life, just lift lockdown and let us choose.
    The problem with purists like you is that you don't live in the real world.

    I do live in the real world. In the real world the NHS is not at risk of collapse. Even today Boris never said the NHS was at risk of collapse, instead now its about saving lives - the goalposts have moved.

    I don't need a QR code telling me what I can and can't do and registering all my movements. Screw that. Just let us be adults and act like adults.
  • Leon said:

    What Boris Johnson should have said is

    'If you don't get vaccinated as soon as possible then you're going to die, we're not going lockdown for you antivaxxer fuckers again after the 19th of July,'

    To which I would add, like Leon, that they should say to everyone else: your vaccine passport is your price for everything else in your life being free.

    It's a very very small price to pay.
    Bollocks.

    Just let people live their lives. I don't need a nanny state scanning a QR code telling me how to live my life, just lift lockdown and let us choose.
    A vaxport allows you to do all of that. You sacrifice one freedom, allowing HMG to know where you are, in return for so many more freedoms, and a liberated economy. Everything could open up to the vaxporters. Theeatres, clubs, bars where you can stand!

    Israel did it, and we all admired how well they deconfined. We have to copy. It's the same as ID cards in the war. We got rid of them after the war (eventually)
    Indeed.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    No to AZ for youngsters.

    Yes but they didn’t explain why.

    If you think about it, if the blood clot risk is still higher than the alternative, then why are we not re-opening as planned?
    You can have a shorter time gap with Pfizer or Moderna. Also it's not being shouted out from the rooftops for obvious reasons but Pfizer and Moderna are better than Astra.
    They're not better so much as quicker (which is of course a key point at the moment).
    But they are not quicker than nothing!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    edited June 2021
    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    I know plenty of older people who have been vaxxed but are wary of a full reopening as it would increase their chances of running into people like you who have chosen not to get vaccinated. Wake up. It’s your f****** fault as much as anyone’s. Unless you have been vaccinated, in my book you lose any right whatsoever to criticise the government for keeping restrictions. And I say this as someone who is sitting here livid with what the government is doing and has written (again) to my MP imploring him to vote against the government.

    They can ensure the risk is zero by staying in their homes, social distancing and wearing masks or ensuring they only meet people outside their bubble in the open air. That's their choice.
    Well I’ll tell you what I’d do instead. Id have the army pin you down at gunpoint with a needle. And if necessary inject you with AZN into your eyeball. Because while there’s a big body of unvaccinated people out there who are vulnerable to hospitalisation from covid, normal service will not resume in the healthcare sector. If you don’t like it, you’ve got a month to find somewhere else to call home.
    FFS Moonshine many other governments are unlocking with much lower levels of vaccination. Its almost like NOT being vaccinated is more a guarantee of freedom that being vaccinated.

    It is our government that is devaluing your vaccination currency, not me.
    The BMA said this morning no other Country in Europe was unlocking or near to

    So who are these many other governments unlocking
    https://www.politico.eu/article/netherlands-coronavirus-lockdown-ends-june-5/
    "Museums, theaters, cinemas and a wide range of other venues can reopen across The Netherlands from June 5, Prime Minister Mark Rutte announced late Friday.

    "This is actually the end of the lockdown," he told a news conference.

    Restaurants will be allowed to offer indoor dining again and opening hours can be extended until 10pm. The Dutch will also be allowed to invite up to four people to their homes instead of two.

    However, employees should still go to workplaces as little as possible, for the time being. "We're not there yet," Rutte cautioned.

    A strict lockdown has been in place since mid-December.

    Rutte predicted the vaccination campaign will bring more improvements , although the summer will not yet be "completely normal." The government is still warning that travelling entails risks.

    If the number of infections and hospitalizations continue to move in the right direction, more restrictions will be relaxed from June 30, Rutte added.

    Citizens will then be allowed to host up to eight people in their homes and restaurants and bars will be permitted to stay open until midnight.
    "

    It does seem that we're frequently describing our own remaining restrictions as "lockdown" whilst other countries continuing to follow remaining restrictions are "out of lockdown"

    I think the term has been hopelessly eroded.
    I mean, I went to the cinema weeks ago. I've eaten out in restaurants indoors and gone to pubs frequently. And been able to go indoors with more than four people.
    A good point. Lockdown = the Stay At Home order plus most things closed.

    Anybody describing this current scenario here as us being "locked down", I just switch off and disregard the rest of the comment.
    I agree. But I think that "lockdown" is sometimes used lazily to mean government constraints.
    Yes, that's true. But I more meant the actual exact phrase that we are "locked down". That's a teeth grinder for me.

    Anyway, look, your "set a precedent" concern. I think not - but if July 19th doesn't happen, as stated earlier, I'll be decamping to your side of the argument, because it would mean the calculus between liberty and security has been warped. That's not the case right now imo. This delay has just enough rationale for me (albeit I'm disappointed about it).

    And for you and the other posters on here saying "Oh fuck, this is going on forever, the scientists have got us by the balls and won't let go", I have an offer. I think you're all overwrought and wrong. So I'll give EVENS - a straight 50/50 - on July 19th being delayed. If that's what you think is going to happen - Rook, Max, Leon, Rotten, Cycle, Noneof, all you guys - it's got to be the bet of the century.

    So hit me! :smile:
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Leon said:

    What Boris Johnson should have said is

    'If you don't get vaccinated as soon as possible then you're going to die, we're not going lockdown for you antivaxxer fuckers again after the 19th of July,'

    To which I would add, like Leon, that they should say to everyone else: your vaccine passport is your price for everything else in your life being free.

    It's a very very small price to pay.
    Bollocks.

    Just let people live their lives. I don't need a nanny state scanning a QR code telling me how to live my life, just lift lockdown and let us choose.
    A vaxport allows you to do all of that. You sacrifice one freedom, allowing HMG to know where you are, in return for so many more freedoms, and a liberated economy. Everything could open up to the vaxporters. Theeatres, clubs, bars where you can stand!

    Israel did it, and we all admired how well they deconfined. We have to copy. It's the same as ID cards in the war. We got rid of them after the war (eventually)
    No need to start them. The NHS isn't at risk of collapse so all of these freedoms are unnecessary.

    I'm not saying keep lockdown instead of vaxports, I'm saying neither is acceptable. Lockdown should be lifted, no ifs, no buts.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874
    MaxPB said:


    Fuck all of those wankers who support this.

    Cogently said, my friend.

    I have to say the PHE numbers on the efficacy of vaccinations against the Delta variant do seem at odds with other research but I'll take 92% protection after two vaccinations of AZ all day and every day.

    Other numbers out in the public domain are not as encouraging and have perhaps led to an undue degree of anxiety among especially the doubly vaccinated. and perhaps bolstered the numbers backing a continuation of existing restrictions.

    The sole rationale for the maintenance of the restrictions is the inability of the hospital system to deal with large cases of admittedly mostly milder infections among mostly younger people.

    If the experience in my neck of the woods is any guide, opening up mass vaccination centres in the evenings and weekends has to be the way forward for the under-40s. Newham opened East Ham Leisure Centre yesterday and Saturday for residents aged 25-39 to get a first dose of Pfizer and there's another big event planned at the London Stadium this Saturday.

    The question then becomes the interval between vaccinations - originally Pfizer suggested 3 weeks, perhaps we should offer that to get the numbers doubly vaccinated as high as possible before 19/7.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822

    What Boris Johnson should have said is

    'If you don't get vaccinated as soon as possible then you're going to die, we're not going lockdown for you antivaxxer fuckers again after the 19th of July,'

    They are not locking down for the antivaxxers but the comfortably off, nice house, nice garden, income not impacted already vaccinated Tory frit voters.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Looking forward to Andrew Lloyd-Webber and Marcus Fysh MP having some "interesting" encounters with the authorities over the next few weeks.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    A non-pant-pissing scientist now pulling the Government's rationale apart on Sky. Says the four week delay is something that the PM is entitled to make, but that he thinks it will come to look overcautious pretty soon.

    Talking about Bolton, Blackburn, the hospital cases being fewer and less serious. Basically the arguments of those of us on the opening up faction on PB.

    The "NHS needs all the capacity to catch up" argument is also shot down. The capacity needed for Covid will probably be needed for flu later in the year anyway: the NHS needs to maintain a rolling capacity for dealing with respiratory illness, regardless of what other illnesses it has to deal with.

    Non-pant-pissing scientist sees little point in delay. Stalling and double-vaxxing younger people doesn't help much because (rather obviously) they're at very low risk of severe illness and death to begin with.

    Bravo, Professor Robert Dingwall of NERVTAG! If only you were in the ascendancy, rather than the Susan Michie, gags to be worn forever, brigade, then we might be able to save ourselves many more ruined livelihoods and billions of pounds needlessly flushed down the toilet. But hey-ho, such is life, or at least what passes for it nowadays.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    edited June 2021

    Has the PM said anything about the WFH directive?

    Because if vaccines aren't breaking the link....

    "Not breaking the link" sounds like a misleading phrase. For example if the risk of dying for unvaccinated people was 10%, and the risk of dying for vaccinated people was 0.1%, there would still be a 'link' between infection and death.
    It's a nightmare, last we changed our return to the office date from the 5th of July to the 26th of July, and now we're not sure what to do.

    One of the many reasons we've survived the plague is that our firm has put the safety of staff first, we have plans that are now once again messed around.

    I worked my arse off on making sure it all went swimmingly, now the PM have ruined that, again.
    They could dust off the plan to move you to Frankfurt?
    That was updated, first choice is Amsterdam, then Dublin, and then Frankfurt.
    Dublin 😘 You can have the best pubs in the world, only your accent will turn heads.

    Were you happy of their answer to your “you let the India Variant flood in” question.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Leon said:

    Vaccine Passports would have solved much of this. Forcing people to take the jab if they want to function

    This fucking spineless government. Grrrrr

    The big mistake was not stopping flights from India immediately.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    One in 20 of those currently getting infected end up in hospital. That's a massive proportion. They are mostly fairly young, now (because the jabs are doing their magic). Hospitalisations on that scale are not something the government can simply ignore.

    Citation for that 1/20 figure please.
    https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1404487876851777547

    and

    https://twitter.com/whippletom/status/1404488615829426180

    This is not now about protecting oldies. It's about protecting the as-yet unvaccinated (and the NHS from overload, again).
    That's completely fucking useless without context though, how many of those are unvaxxed by choice? What does 4 weeks buy us if they are vaccine refusers. They aren't going to suddenly take the vaccine.
    Why do you seem so convinced that the increase in the 18-54 group is down to the older members of that group who have refused vaccination?
    We haven’t seen that in the older groups, and we know that the increase in cases is overwhelmingly in younger people - who have never been invulnerable. We’ve had considerable numbers of younger people hospitalised before; why would they not be hospitalised now?
    They’re significantly less likely to be hospitalised, but that’s not the same as “will not be hospitalised”.

    The reduction in the ratio of hospitalisations to cases and the spiralling cases in the youngest adults is exactly what we’d see if they were the primary source of the hospitalisations. Given that the majority of cases is in the under-54s now (unlike before), unless vaccine refusal is hugely different between 45-55 and 55-65, it seems to be the more unlikely option that they’re all antivaxxers.
    Andy for the past 15 months there was a small number of young people being hospitalised and almost none dying.

    Why is this changing? Delta?
    The PHE data confirms that anti vax tendency is startlingly higher in 45-55 than 55-65. For example using ONS, 45-49 have uptake of 84.4% and 60-64 have 99.5%.

    There’s unlikely to be too much to a timing lag at this point for 45-49 year olds, uptake only increased by 0.6% in the past week.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    Although the wedding guests limit will be lifted provided social distancing can be maintained from June 21st, dancing at the reception will remain banned

    https://www.newsmond.com/30-person-limit-on-weddings-scrapped-from-june-21-but-dancing-banned-see-rules/
This discussion has been closed.