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With three days to go the best Chesham and Amersham bet – politicalbetting.com

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  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    Andy_JS said:

    I think tonight's announcement could sink the Tories in Chesham and Amersham, with crucial votes going over to the Reform Party.


    Rightfully so to be fair... Boris is becoming to lockdown what Theresa was to Brexit...
  • citycentrecitycentre Posts: 90
    Taz said:

    Mail at it again i see with this headline
    Covid cases soar 36% amid fears Boris will delay unlocking BEYOND July 19 and may even REVERSE his road-map - despite desperate vaccine push

    Who,is,writing for,them now. Independent sage and zero,covid zealots.
    lord knows if i took the mail seriously id end up schizophrenic
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    HYUFD said:

    Quite surprised OGH has got a time machine to get the C and A results from the 2917 general election

    Surely we became a part of the Grand Federation of Planets, subdivision earth, in 2852 and the subsequent Brexit did not occur until after the 2934 election?
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,426

    Taz said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    I know plenty of older people who have been vaxxed but are wary of a full reopening as it would increase their chances of running into people like you who have chosen not to get vaccinated. Wake up. It’s your f****** fault as much as anyone’s. Unless you have been vaccinated, in my book you lose any right whatsoever to criticise the government for keeping restrictions. And I say this as someone who is sitting here livid with what the government is doing and has written (again) to my MP imploring him to vote against the government.

    They can ensure the risk is zero by staying in their homes, social distancing and wearing masks or ensuring they only meet people outside their bubble in the open air. That's their choice.
    Well I’ll tell you what I’d do instead. Id have the army pin you down at gunpoint with a needle. And if necessary inject you with AZN into your eyeball. Because while there’s a big body of unvaccinated people out there who are vulnerable to hospitalisation from covid, normal service will not resume in the healthcare sector. If you don’t like it, you’ve got a month to find somewhere else to call home.
    FFS Moonshine many other governments are unlocking with much lower levels of vaccination. Its almost like NOT being vaccinated is more a guarantee of freedom that being vaccinated.

    It is our government that is devaluing your vaccination currency, not me.
    The BMA said this morning no other Country in Europe was unlocking or near to

    So who are these many other governments unlocking
    https://www.politico.eu/article/netherlands-coronavirus-lockdown-ends-june-5/
    Sadly Big G has been hoodwinked by misleading information on GB News.
    Is was a direct quote by the head of the BMA

    You are obsessed with GBnews
    Did you realise that Big G North Wales is an anagram for “GB News harlot”?

    Downright spooky.
    And garden Walker is an anagram of R E Glad Wanker.
    “Taz” is Amharaic for “one who suckles at the camel’s bottom”.
    You couldn’t be more wrong. You seem to relish being wrong.

    https://prowrestling.fandom.com/wiki/Taz

    Could also be Tazz.

  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    edited June 2021
    I thought Scotland were rather unlucky today. They deserved a draw at least.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837
    Stocky said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    I know plenty of older people who have been vaxxed but are wary of a full reopening as it would increase their chances of running into people like you who have chosen not to get vaccinated. Wake up. It’s your f****** fault as much as anyone’s. Unless you have been vaccinated, in my book you lose any right whatsoever to criticise the government for keeping restrictions. And I say this as someone who is sitting here livid with what the government is doing and has written (again) to my MP imploring him to vote against the government.

    They can ensure the risk is zero by staying in their homes, social distancing and wearing masks or ensuring they only meet people outside their bubble in the open air. That's their choice.
    Well I’ll tell you what I’d do instead. Id have the army pin you down at gunpoint with a needle. And if necessary inject you with AZN into your eyeball. Because while there’s a big body of unvaccinated people out there who are vulnerable to hospitalisation from covid, normal service will not resume in the healthcare sector. If you don’t like it, you’ve got a month to find somewhere else to call home.
    FFS Moonshine many other governments are unlocking with much lower levels of vaccination. Its almost like NOT being vaccinated is more a guarantee of freedom that being vaccinated.

    It is our government that is devaluing your vaccination currency, not me.
    The BMA said this morning no other Country in Europe was unlocking or near to

    So who are these many other governments unlocking
    https://www.politico.eu/article/netherlands-coronavirus-lockdown-ends-june-5/
    "Museums, theaters, cinemas and a wide range of other venues can reopen across The Netherlands from June 5, Prime Minister Mark Rutte announced late Friday.

    "This is actually the end of the lockdown," he told a news conference.

    Restaurants will be allowed to offer indoor dining again and opening hours can be extended until 10pm. The Dutch will also be allowed to invite up to four people to their homes instead of two.

    However, employees should still go to workplaces as little as possible, for the time being. "We're not there yet," Rutte cautioned.

    A strict lockdown has been in place since mid-December.

    Rutte predicted the vaccination campaign will bring more improvements , although the summer will not yet be "completely normal." The government is still warning that travelling entails risks.

    If the number of infections and hospitalizations continue to move in the right direction, more restrictions will be relaxed from June 30, Rutte added.

    Citizens will then be allowed to host up to eight people in their homes and restaurants and bars will be permitted to stay open until midnight.
    "

    It does seem that we're frequently describing our own remaining restrictions as "lockdown" whilst other countries continuing to follow remaining restrictions are "out of lockdown"

    I think the term has been hopelessly eroded.
    I mean, I went to the cinema weeks ago. I've eaten out in restaurants indoors and gone to pubs frequently. And been able to go indoors with more than four people.
    Quite!

    Today's threads had some absolute nonsense comments (not this matter particularly, but the general fantasising about reality) and it's very tiresome. Almost as bad as the run-up to a GE. And, still to come this evening, the ceremonial throwing of toys out of prams.

    --AS
    I think the main issue with this delay is the precedent it sets. If a delay is based on what might be rather than what is it makes one wonder what is to stop further delays.
    Not seen many constructive replies addressing this point. At best it is more people will have been jabbed/jabbed twice. If that is the case lets set a clear release date when those numbers reach x.

    The reality is this lockdown life suits a lot of people, most of them government voters. They have become the client state and their votes make the end of lockdown very hard to get to.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,002
    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Back to the seasonality question. It's been warm and sunny, and people have been out and about in the fresh air. Might that account for some of the levelling off in case rises recently?

    If so then the biblical deluge we're all about to be subjected to from Thursday onwards, for several days at least, isn't good news. Maxima of 13-14C on Friday and mid teens at the weekend under leaden skies and torrential downpours. Los of friends and family crowding indoors.

    Maxima of 14c where? Scotland? The London forecast is for 20c on Saturday.
    13-14C on Friday pretty widely including London. Mid teens for much of the country on Saturday but warmer (and muggy) South of the Thames into Sussex, Kent and Hants, and colder (11-12C) in much of the North. A total of between 40 and 60mm rainfall currently modelled from Thursday to Saturday in the SE.

    Based on the most recent runs of the ECMWF and GFS models.
    Followed, by the way (and I really hope the latest GFS output is over-egging it) by maxima in Central England of 12,11, 11, 11 from Sunday to Wednesday next week inclusive. For comparison they modelled today at 28C in London, and London was 28C.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,426

    Taz said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    I know plenty of older people who have been vaxxed but are wary of a full reopening as it would increase their chances of running into people like you who have chosen not to get vaccinated. Wake up. It’s your f****** fault as much as anyone’s. Unless you have been vaccinated, in my book you lose any right whatsoever to criticise the government for keeping restrictions. And I say this as someone who is sitting here livid with what the government is doing and has written (again) to my MP imploring him to vote against the government.

    They can ensure the risk is zero by staying in their homes, social distancing and wearing masks or ensuring they only meet people outside their bubble in the open air. That's their choice.
    Well I’ll tell you what I’d do instead. Id have the army pin you down at gunpoint with a needle. And if necessary inject you with AZN into your eyeball. Because while there’s a big body of unvaccinated people out there who are vulnerable to hospitalisation from covid, normal service will not resume in the healthcare sector. If you don’t like it, you’ve got a month to find somewhere else to call home.
    FFS Moonshine many other governments are unlocking with much lower levels of vaccination. Its almost like NOT being vaccinated is more a guarantee of freedom that being vaccinated.

    It is our government that is devaluing your vaccination currency, not me.
    The BMA said this morning no other Country in Europe was unlocking or near to

    So who are these many other governments unlocking
    https://www.politico.eu/article/netherlands-coronavirus-lockdown-ends-june-5/
    Sadly Big G has been hoodwinked by misleading information on GB News.
    Is was a direct quote by the head of the BMA

    You are obsessed with GBnews
    Did you realise that Big G North Wales is an anagram for “GB News harlot”?

    Downright spooky.
    And garden Walker is an anagram of R E Glad Wanker.
    “Taz” is Amharaic for “one who suckles at the camel’s bottom”.

    Aww, poor Mr Glad Wanker. Of the ‘dish it but can’t take it’ tendency.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    felix said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    24s
    Westminster Voting Intention (13 June):

    Conservative 44% (+1)
    Labour 34% (-2)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (+2)
    Scottish National Party 4% (-1)
    Green 5% (–)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 7 June

    Follow @redfieldwilton
    to see our VI first

    Good news for Sir Keir - it will make the fightback look even better!
    34pc is high for Labour.. trouble for Boris and it could easily get closer to 40pc teflon doesn't.ladt forever
    2 less than it was last week!
    Which pollster?
    This one
    The new kids on the block...how much track history to the have.?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    "Police don't know the law":

    Extraordinary - @metpoliceuk account tweeting that "gatherings of more than 30 people are illegal" when there is a specific exception for protests

    https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1404467573714980869?s=20

    Also they tweet "illegal under the guidelines"

    If they're "guidelines" they aren't "law" - so they can't be "illegal".....

    The Rozzers don't know the law and try and bully the public with arrest?

    I am even more shocked than when it turned out Contrarian isn't in touch with the public when it comes to Covid-19
    One piece of advice that I've seen you and other legal people on here give is to never accept a police caution, it came in handy for one of my friends who was just walking through a crime scene but the police picked him out as a suspect from CCTV. They wanted to give him a caution, he refused and said either arrest and charge what you have or fuck off. Obviously they fucked off. I've posted that advice in our WhatsApp group loads of times and he said afterwards if he hadn't had the advice he'd probably have accepted the caution without realising it would destroy his career in financial services.
    Golden rules for dealing with the rozzers

    1) Never ever accept a caution

    2) Never speak to police without legal representation (preferably your own if you can afford it, duty sols are massively overworked and even more underpaid but still better than nothing.)

    If the media really wanted to focus on police misconduct they should go for cautions. The amount of times they've told people that should accept a caution and they'll walk out of the police station without a stain on their record otherwise they'll have a very messy media focussed trial is criminal behaviour on the part of the police.

    With more and more organisations carrying out DBS checks the police are actively ruining so many lives with their behaviour.
    Yup, it was the DBS check that would get him. I have to have one every year as to most people who directly or indirectly handle client money so he does too. He spoke to the legal people provided by his workplace insurance afterwards and they said the advice is to never accept a caution. It's better to get arrested, fight it and then walk away. A caution is a 5 year stain on your record for nothing.
    Hopefully, a bit of a labour shortage might do away with the unnecessary DBS checks for posts where it isn't needed.
    Along with the clean driving licence for jobs which don't require you to drive.
    Bugbear of mine.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729

    Andy_JS said:

    I think tonight's announcement could sink the Tories in Chesham and Amersham, with crucial votes going over to the Reform Party.

    Dom Cummings' latest attack on Johnson over the dodgy HS2 data won't have helped the tories either. I have a former tory friend in the constituency who will never vote for them again.
    Well thats two.of you then.....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,675
    edited June 2021
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    "Police don't know the law":

    Extraordinary - @metpoliceuk account tweeting that "gatherings of more than 30 people are illegal" when there is a specific exception for protests

    https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1404467573714980869?s=20

    Also they tweet "illegal under the guidelines"

    If they're "guidelines" they aren't "law" - so they can't be "illegal".....

    The Rozzers don't know the law and try and bully the public with arrest?

    I am even more shocked than when it turned out Contrarian isn't in touch with the public when it comes to Covid-19
    One piece of advice that I've seen you and other legal people on here give is to never accept a police caution, it came in handy for one of my friends who was just walking through a crime scene but the police picked him out as a suspect from CCTV. They wanted to give him a caution, he refused and said either arrest and charge what you have or fuck off. Obviously they fucked off. I've posted that advice in our WhatsApp group loads of times and he said afterwards if he hadn't had the advice he'd probably have accepted the caution without realising it would destroy his career in financial services.
    Golden rules for dealing with the rozzers

    1) Never ever accept a caution

    2) Never speak to police without legal representation (preferably your own if you can afford it, duty sols are massively overworked and even more underpaid but still better than nothing.)

    If the media really wanted to focus on police misconduct they should go for cautions. The amount of times they've told people that should accept a caution and they'll walk out of the police station without a stain on their record otherwise they'll have a very messy media focussed trial is criminal behaviour on the part of the police.

    With more and more organisations carrying out DBS checks the police are actively ruining so many lives with their behaviour.
    Yup, it was the DBS check that would get him. I have to have one every year as to most people who directly or indirectly handle client money so he does too. He spoke to the legal people provided by his workplace insurance afterwards and they said the advice is to never accept a caution. It's better to get arrested, fight it and then walk away. A caution is a 5 year stain on your record for nothing.
    It also ruined a friend's trip to New York, it is something she had wanted to do and have saved for her entire life.

    Went with her boyfriend, turns out he had a caution for a minor offence years ago and the Americans sent him back, she was given about 90 minutes to decide if she wanted to go back with him.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited June 2021
    And magically the BBC finds nobody is to really blame..if only one person had talked to another.

    Martin Bashir: No evidence journalist rehired as cover-up - BBC report

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-57469980
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313

    I took Mike's advice a while back and placed a bet on the LibDems at 25-1.

    The wheels are coming off Johnson's machine.

    He has just been laid into by the Speaker for misleading the House of Commons: an extraordinarily furious statement by Lindsey Hoyle.

    The roadmap is in tatters. It's obvious, as I said on here a month ago, that controls will continue for months and years. Those who have stolen your rights won't return them.

    And Brexit is falling apart over Northern Ireland, as it was always likely to do when you put bellicose people like Lord Frost and Emmanuel Macron in the same room.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/06/14/time-start-preparing-no-deal-20/

    Peak Boris was May 25th, just before Dom Cummings attacked him.

    The long slow (but not necessarily) linear slide is underway. And now we will start to see Johnson for what he really is.

    Interesting. I have always thought that eventually Boris Johnson's misdemeanours and incompetence would catch up with him. Not sure it will happen yet though. People still want to give the Puppydog-Eyed-One the benefit of the doubt. I suspect that when Johnson's fall from grace does come it will come fast and no-one except the odd diehard fanboy will want to admit they ever thought much to him. I am guessing that will be in about 2 years from now when the pandemic is largely over.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    Quite.

    I'd be interested to see whether there's any vetting of the emails @SimonMcCoyTV
    is reading out on GB News right now - someone claiming to be a paramedic saying they haven't dealt with a covid patient in three months (when we have thousands of cases a day) sounds a bit @_DHOTYA


    https://twitter.com/stokel/status/1404473305881616385

    Not as bad as Sky giving a platform to an anti-vaxxer the other day.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,426

    Taz said:

    Mail at it again i see with this headline
    Covid cases soar 36% amid fears Boris will delay unlocking BEYOND July 19 and may even REVERSE his road-map - despite desperate vaccine push

    Who,is,writing for,them now. Independent sage and zero,covid zealots.
    lord knows if i took the mail seriously id end up schizophrenic
    It’s poison. It really is (apart from this is money).
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,426

    And magically the BBC finds nobody is to really blame..if only one person had talked to another.

    Martin Bashir: No evidence journalist rehired as cover-up - BBC report

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-57469980

    What a happy coincidence, trebles all round.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,675
    Details still being thrashed out, but Boris Johnson to announce a new series of sporting test events with bigger crowds. Events expected to include Euro 2020 games at Wembley, England v India Test, Wimbledon, Open Championship, British Grand Prix & Challenge Cup final.

    https://twitter.com/MattHughesDM/status/1404478982825857032
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222

    Stocky said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    I know plenty of older people who have been vaxxed but are wary of a full reopening as it would increase their chances of running into people like you who have chosen not to get vaccinated. Wake up. It’s your f****** fault as much as anyone’s. Unless you have been vaccinated, in my book you lose any right whatsoever to criticise the government for keeping restrictions. And I say this as someone who is sitting here livid with what the government is doing and has written (again) to my MP imploring him to vote against the government.

    They can ensure the risk is zero by staying in their homes, social distancing and wearing masks or ensuring they only meet people outside their bubble in the open air. That's their choice.
    Well I’ll tell you what I’d do instead. Id have the army pin you down at gunpoint with a needle. And if necessary inject you with AZN into your eyeball. Because while there’s a big body of unvaccinated people out there who are vulnerable to hospitalisation from covid, normal service will not resume in the healthcare sector. If you don’t like it, you’ve got a month to find somewhere else to call home.
    FFS Moonshine many other governments are unlocking with much lower levels of vaccination. Its almost like NOT being vaccinated is more a guarantee of freedom that being vaccinated.

    It is our government that is devaluing your vaccination currency, not me.
    The BMA said this morning no other Country in Europe was unlocking or near to

    So who are these many other governments unlocking
    https://www.politico.eu/article/netherlands-coronavirus-lockdown-ends-june-5/
    "Museums, theaters, cinemas and a wide range of other venues can reopen across The Netherlands from June 5, Prime Minister Mark Rutte announced late Friday.

    "This is actually the end of the lockdown," he told a news conference.

    Restaurants will be allowed to offer indoor dining again and opening hours can be extended until 10pm. The Dutch will also be allowed to invite up to four people to their homes instead of two.

    However, employees should still go to workplaces as little as possible, for the time being. "We're not there yet," Rutte cautioned.

    A strict lockdown has been in place since mid-December.

    Rutte predicted the vaccination campaign will bring more improvements , although the summer will not yet be "completely normal." The government is still warning that travelling entails risks.

    If the number of infections and hospitalizations continue to move in the right direction, more restrictions will be relaxed from June 30, Rutte added.

    Citizens will then be allowed to host up to eight people in their homes and restaurants and bars will be permitted to stay open until midnight.
    "

    It does seem that we're frequently describing our own remaining restrictions as "lockdown" whilst other countries continuing to follow remaining restrictions are "out of lockdown"

    I think the term has been hopelessly eroded.
    I mean, I went to the cinema weeks ago. I've eaten out in restaurants indoors and gone to pubs frequently. And been able to go indoors with more than four people.
    Quite!

    Today's threads had some absolute nonsense comments (not this matter particularly, but the general fantasising about reality) and it's very tiresome. Almost as bad as the run-up to a GE. And, still to come this evening, the ceremonial throwing of toys out of prams.

    --AS
    I think the main issue with this delay is the precedent it sets. If a delay is based on what might be rather than what is it makes one wonder what is to stop further delays.
    Not seen many constructive replies addressing this point. At best it is more people will have been jabbed/jabbed twice. If that is the case lets set a clear release date when those numbers reach x.

    The reality is this lockdown life suits a lot of people, most of them government voters. They have become the client state and their votes make the end of lockdown very hard to get to.
    They have to keep to their promise to stop financial support. This is the best chance of turning popular opinion, which is vital to this following-rather-than-leading government. If the support gets extended yet again I'll really start to worry.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,426
    tlg86 said:

    Quite.

    I'd be interested to see whether there's any vetting of the emails @SimonMcCoyTV
    is reading out on GB News right now - someone claiming to be a paramedic saying they haven't dealt with a covid patient in three months (when we have thousands of cases a day) sounds a bit @_DHOTYA


    https://twitter.com/stokel/status/1404473305881616385

    Not as bad as Sky giving a platform to an anti-vaxxer the other day.
    Who was that ?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited June 2021
    tlg86 said:

    Quite.

    I'd be interested to see whether there's any vetting of the emails @SimonMcCoyTV
    is reading out on GB News right now - someone claiming to be a paramedic saying they haven't dealt with a covid patient in three months (when we have thousands of cases a day) sounds a bit @_DHOTYA


    https://twitter.com/stokel/status/1404473305881616385

    Not as bad as Sky giving a platform to an anti-vaxxer the other day.
    The BBC and Sky have regularly had Sunetra Gupta on....even to this day she is trying to claim there was herd immunity this time last year and it was only the changing season, which changes the required level of herd immunity, meant we got another spike...

    That just gives rise to anti-vaxxer types who say well I don't need a jab then do I, this Professor lady says we have herd immunity.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited June 2021
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    I know plenty of older people who have been vaxxed but are wary of a full reopening as it would increase their chances of running into people like you who have chosen not to get vaccinated. Wake up. It’s your f****** fault as much as anyone’s. Unless you have been vaccinated, in my book you lose any right whatsoever to criticise the government for keeping restrictions. And I say this as someone who is sitting here livid with what the government is doing and has written (again) to my MP imploring him to vote against the government.

    They can ensure the risk is zero by staying in their homes, social distancing and wearing masks or ensuring they only meet people outside their bubble in the open air. That's their choice.
    Well I’ll tell you what I’d do instead. Id have the army pin you down at gunpoint with a needle. And if necessary inject you with AZN into your eyeball. Because while there’s a big body of unvaccinated people out there who are vulnerable to hospitalisation from covid, normal service will not resume in the healthcare sector. If you don’t like it, you’ve got a month to find somewhere else to call home.
    FFS Moonshine many other governments are unlocking with much lower levels of vaccination. Its almost like NOT being vaccinated is more a guarantee of freedom that being vaccinated.

    It is our government that is devaluing your vaccination currency, not me.
    The BMA said this morning no other Country in Europe was unlocking or near to

    So who are these many other governments unlocking
    https://www.politico.eu/article/netherlands-coronavirus-lockdown-ends-june-5/
    Sadly Big G has been hoodwinked by misleading information on GB News.
    Is was a direct quote by the head of the BMA

    You are obsessed with GBnews
    Did you realise that Big G North Wales is an anagram for “GB News harlot”?

    Downright spooky.
    And garden Walker is an anagram of R E Glad Wanker.
    “Taz” is Amharaic for “one who suckles at the camel’s bottom”.

    Aww, poor Mr Glad Wanker. Of the ‘dish it but can’t take it’ tendency.
    I’m saddened you wish to debase the site with obscenity, and base name-calling in lieu of argument.

    Expected better from you.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited June 2021

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    felix said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    24s
    Westminster Voting Intention (13 June):

    Conservative 44% (+1)
    Labour 34% (-2)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (+2)
    Scottish National Party 4% (-1)
    Green 5% (–)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 7 June

    Follow @redfieldwilton
    to see our VI first

    Good news for Sir Keir - it will make the fightback look even better!
    34pc is high for Labour.. trouble for Boris and it could easily get closer to 40pc teflon doesn't.ladt forever
    2 less than it was last week!
    Which pollster?
    This one
    The new kids on the block...how much track history to the have.?
    Not much, but you cant really use this pollster's Labour number as a base for "quite high" and then dismiss the pollster when I point out they had them higher last week!
  • ridaligoridaligo Posts: 174

    HYUFD said:

    71% of English voters back the PM delaying lockdown tonight by 4 weeks, 24% opposed.

    However opposition rises to 28% amongst Tory voters and 29% amongst Leave voters and 34% amongst 18 to 24 year olds

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1404461708517777412?s=20

    Those are amazing figures and shows how frightened the populace have become

    Yes, those figures are absolutely staggering and profoundly depressing - do 70% of the population not know any young people? What the hell is the matter with them? Can they not see the damage that is being done as each day under this cloud drags on? We need to start getting back to normal life ASAP or I fear we will never recover the Nation's collective mental health (not to mention repairing the economic devastation).

    I simply cannot fathom it - the only explanation I can come up with is a testament to the real scandal of all of this, which is the government's use of fear to control the populace. That is the truly frightening thing, not some virus that all the vulnerable and elderly are now vaccinated against.

    For anyone interested in the use of fear to manage covid policy, Laura Dodsworth's recent book deals with this topic and its a quite shocking read.

    I am more convinced than ever that we will never get back to pre-covid norms, including the freedoms that we have all-too-meekly surrendered. Shame on us for standing by and accepting the ever-shifting goalposts and shame on the pathetic mainstream media and the woeful opposition parties for failing to challenge this government at every step of the way.

    I will not be voting Tory again unless and until they rediscover their conservative backbone - this issue is far too important to just let it slide. I will e-mail my MP Ranil tomorrow just to register my protest with him (and hopefully add to the pile of similar e-mails in his inbox). It won't do any good - he is a Boris yes-man with a stonking majority so he's under no threat but Conservative Central Office needs to know how many of their "natural supporters" they are losing because of this.

    Rant over. Sorry.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Andy_JS said:

    I think tonight's announcement could sink the Tories in Chesham and Amersham, with crucial votes going over to the Reform Party.

    I doubt it myself but I'd love to see the LDs take the seat. The government have had it easy for far too long. Politics is not meant to be like this. Governments are meant to be unpopular. Especially Tory governments making a godawful mess of things.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Taz said:

    tlg86 said:

    Quite.

    I'd be interested to see whether there's any vetting of the emails @SimonMcCoyTV
    is reading out on GB News right now - someone claiming to be a paramedic saying they haven't dealt with a covid patient in three months (when we have thousands of cases a day) sounds a bit @_DHOTYA


    https://twitter.com/stokel/status/1404473305881616385

    Not as bad as Sky giving a platform to an anti-vaxxer the other day.
    Who was that ?
    Deepti Gurdasani.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,450

    MaxPB said:

    I reckon this is just people not wanting to go to weddings in general, especially in the summer.

    YouGov: By 56% to 29% the English public say the current limit of 30 guests at weddings is fair, ahead of Boris Johnson's announcement today

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1404463445802684420

    Some people really are miserable sods.

    I doubt they would feel similar if it was a close friend or family member's wedding.

    People like rules that don't affect them personally.
    Turns out, most of the population.
    I believe @MaxPB has noted this before.

    Britain is a country of ageing curtain-twitchers, who glory in the misery of others.

    If you want to understand the U.K., read the Daily Mail.
    Indeed I have and it's very true. It makes me want to leave the country.
    Do it! I have a pretty negative view of what England has become, so I left. Now they can do what they like and I'm safe from their madness north of the wall. Much less worrisome when its Someone Else's Problem.
    lol! Scotland is WORSE

    Sturgeon will keep them all locked up til 2024 if she can, thus neatly avoiding sindyref2 in the process
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,426

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    I know plenty of older people who have been vaxxed but are wary of a full reopening as it would increase their chances of running into people like you who have chosen not to get vaccinated. Wake up. It’s your f****** fault as much as anyone’s. Unless you have been vaccinated, in my book you lose any right whatsoever to criticise the government for keeping restrictions. And I say this as someone who is sitting here livid with what the government is doing and has written (again) to my MP imploring him to vote against the government.

    They can ensure the risk is zero by staying in their homes, social distancing and wearing masks or ensuring they only meet people outside their bubble in the open air. That's their choice.
    Well I’ll tell you what I’d do instead. Id have the army pin you down at gunpoint with a needle. And if necessary inject you with AZN into your eyeball. Because while there’s a big body of unvaccinated people out there who are vulnerable to hospitalisation from covid, normal service will not resume in the healthcare sector. If you don’t like it, you’ve got a month to find somewhere else to call home.
    FFS Moonshine many other governments are unlocking with much lower levels of vaccination. Its almost like NOT being vaccinated is more a guarantee of freedom that being vaccinated.

    It is our government that is devaluing your vaccination currency, not me.
    The BMA said this morning no other Country in Europe was unlocking or near to

    So who are these many other governments unlocking
    https://www.politico.eu/article/netherlands-coronavirus-lockdown-ends-june-5/
    Sadly Big G has been hoodwinked by misleading information on GB News.
    Is was a direct quote by the head of the BMA

    You are obsessed with GBnews
    Did you realise that Big G North Wales is an anagram for “GB News harlot”?

    Downright spooky.
    And garden Walker is an anagram of R E Glad Wanker.
    “Taz” is Amharaic for “one who suckles at the camel’s bottom”.

    Aww, poor Mr Glad Wanker. Of the ‘dish it but can’t take it’ tendency.
    I’m saddened you wish to debase the site with obscenity, and base name-calling in lieu of argument.

    Expected better from you.
    Big G was offended by your anagram of his name, I chose humour as an option. It was somewhat a cheap shot.

    I did choose my name after the great wrestling commentator Taz, or Tazz, depending on the promotion.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    MaxPB said:

    "Police don't know the law":

    Extraordinary - @metpoliceuk account tweeting that "gatherings of more than 30 people are illegal" when there is a specific exception for protests

    https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1404467573714980869?s=20

    Also they tweet "illegal under the guidelines"

    If they're "guidelines" they aren't "law" - so they can't be "illegal".....

    The Rozzers don't know the law and try and bully the public with arrest?

    I am even more shocked than when it turned out Contrarian isn't in touch with the public when it comes to Covid-19
    One piece of advice that I've seen you and other legal people on here give is to never accept a police caution, it came in handy for one of my friends who was just walking through a crime scene but the police picked him out as a suspect from CCTV. They wanted to give him a caution, he refused and said either arrest and charge what you have or fuck off. Obviously they fucked off. I've posted that advice in our WhatsApp group loads of times and he said afterwards if he hadn't had the advice he'd probably have accepted the caution without realising it would destroy his career in financial services.
    It's also possible to have inappropriate cautions deleted (as it seems this one clearly would have been), so it would not necessarily have destroyed his career.
    Would have been a serious PITA, though.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Stocky said:

    I thought Scotland were rather unlucky today. They deserved a draw at least.

    The 2nd goal was ridiculous.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Mail at it again i see with this headline
    Covid cases soar 36% amid fears Boris will delay unlocking BEYOND July 19 and may even REVERSE his road-map - despite desperate vaccine push

    Who,is,writing for,them now. Independent sage and zero,covid zealots.
    lord knows if i took the mail seriously id end up schizophrenic
    It’s poison. It really is (apart from this is money).
    Some of the SAGE scientists realising they’ve got a problem if there are limited changes to restriction (even some loosening) and the doomsday models look overcooked?

    Reverse the roadmap however? Problem magically goes away! It’s the tightening of restrictions that has done the trick...
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,426
    tlg86 said:

    Taz said:

    tlg86 said:

    Quite.

    I'd be interested to see whether there's any vetting of the emails @SimonMcCoyTV
    is reading out on GB News right now - someone claiming to be a paramedic saying they haven't dealt with a covid patient in three months (when we have thousands of cases a day) sounds a bit @_DHOTYA


    https://twitter.com/stokel/status/1404473305881616385

    Not as bad as Sky giving a platform to an anti-vaxxer the other day.
    Who was that ?
    Deepti Gurdasani.
    I need to find the interview.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    I know plenty of older people who have been vaxxed but are wary of a full reopening as it would increase their chances of running into people like you who have chosen not to get vaccinated. Wake up. It’s your f****** fault as much as anyone’s. Unless you have been vaccinated, in my book you lose any right whatsoever to criticise the government for keeping restrictions. And I say this as someone who is sitting here livid with what the government is doing and has written (again) to my MP imploring him to vote against the government.

    They can ensure the risk is zero by staying in their homes, social distancing and wearing masks or ensuring they only meet people outside their bubble in the open air. That's their choice.
    Well I’ll tell you what I’d do instead. Id have the army pin you down at gunpoint with a needle. And if necessary inject you with AZN into your eyeball. Because while there’s a big body of unvaccinated people out there who are vulnerable to hospitalisation from covid, normal service will not resume in the healthcare sector. If you don’t like it, you’ve got a month to find somewhere else to call home.
    FFS Moonshine many other governments are unlocking with much lower levels of vaccination. Its almost like NOT being vaccinated is more a guarantee of freedom that being vaccinated.

    It is our government that is devaluing your vaccination currency, not me.
    The BMA said this morning no other Country in Europe was unlocking or near to

    So who are these many other governments unlocking
    https://www.politico.eu/article/netherlands-coronavirus-lockdown-ends-june-5/
    Sadly Big G has been hoodwinked by misleading information on GB News.
    Is was a direct quote by the head of the BMA

    You are obsessed with GBnews
    Did you realise that Big G North Wales is an anagram for “GB News harlot”?

    Downright spooky.
    And garden Walker is an anagram of R E Glad Wanker.
    “Taz” is Amharaic for “one who suckles at the camel’s bottom”.

    Aww, poor Mr Glad Wanker. Of the ‘dish it but can’t take it’ tendency.
    I’m saddened you wish to debase the site with obscenity, and base name-calling in lieu of argument.

    Expected better from you.
    Big G was offended by your anagram of his name, I chose humour as an option. It was somewhat a cheap shot.

    I did choose my name after the great wrestling commentator Taz, or Tazz, depending on the promotion.
    I had you down more as a “Hacksaw Jim Duggan” fan.

    https://prowrestling.fandom.com/wiki/Jim_Duggan
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,600
    edited June 2021
    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I think tonight's announcement could sink the Tories in Chesham and Amersham, with crucial votes going over to the Reform Party.

    I doubt it myself but I'd love to see the LDs take the seat. The government have had it easy for far too long. Politics is not meant to be like this. Governments are meant to be unpopular. Especially Tory governments making a godawful mess of things.
    The LD candidate is running on a policy of anti-HS2 and anti-new housebuilding in certain areas. Some LDs have refused to campaign for her because of this alleged nimbyism.
  • Stocky said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    I know plenty of older people who have been vaxxed but are wary of a full reopening as it would increase their chances of running into people like you who have chosen not to get vaccinated. Wake up. It’s your f****** fault as much as anyone’s. Unless you have been vaccinated, in my book you lose any right whatsoever to criticise the government for keeping restrictions. And I say this as someone who is sitting here livid with what the government is doing and has written (again) to my MP imploring him to vote against the government.

    They can ensure the risk is zero by staying in their homes, social distancing and wearing masks or ensuring they only meet people outside their bubble in the open air. That's their choice.
    Well I’ll tell you what I’d do instead. Id have the army pin you down at gunpoint with a needle. And if necessary inject you with AZN into your eyeball. Because while there’s a big body of unvaccinated people out there who are vulnerable to hospitalisation from covid, normal service will not resume in the healthcare sector. If you don’t like it, you’ve got a month to find somewhere else to call home.
    FFS Moonshine many other governments are unlocking with much lower levels of vaccination. Its almost like NOT being vaccinated is more a guarantee of freedom that being vaccinated.

    It is our government that is devaluing your vaccination currency, not me.
    The BMA said this morning no other Country in Europe was unlocking or near to

    So who are these many other governments unlocking
    https://www.politico.eu/article/netherlands-coronavirus-lockdown-ends-june-5/
    "Museums, theaters, cinemas and a wide range of other venues can reopen across The Netherlands from June 5, Prime Minister Mark Rutte announced late Friday.

    "This is actually the end of the lockdown," he told a news conference.

    Restaurants will be allowed to offer indoor dining again and opening hours can be extended until 10pm. The Dutch will also be allowed to invite up to four people to their homes instead of two.

    However, employees should still go to workplaces as little as possible, for the time being. "We're not there yet," Rutte cautioned.

    A strict lockdown has been in place since mid-December.

    Rutte predicted the vaccination campaign will bring more improvements , although the summer will not yet be "completely normal." The government is still warning that travelling entails risks.

    If the number of infections and hospitalizations continue to move in the right direction, more restrictions will be relaxed from June 30, Rutte added.

    Citizens will then be allowed to host up to eight people in their homes and restaurants and bars will be permitted to stay open until midnight.
    "

    It does seem that we're frequently describing our own remaining restrictions as "lockdown" whilst other countries continuing to follow remaining restrictions are "out of lockdown"

    I think the term has been hopelessly eroded.
    I mean, I went to the cinema weeks ago. I've eaten out in restaurants indoors and gone to pubs frequently. And been able to go indoors with more than four people.
    Quite!

    Today's threads had some absolute nonsense comments (not this matter particularly, but the general fantasising about reality) and it's very tiresome. Almost as bad as the run-up to a GE. And, still to come this evening, the ceremonial throwing of toys out of prams.

    --AS
    I think the main issue with this delay is the precedent it sets. If a delay is based on what might be rather than what is it makes one wonder what is to stop further delays.
    I do understand, but I think this pandemic *has* to be dealt with partly on what-might-be. By the time we react to what is happening now, it's too late.

    At least, I think that's so if we want unlocking to be irreversible: one has to project forward to know whether the next step of unlocking has a reasonable probability of disastrous overload of the NHS. My own view, having looked at the data in some detail, is that it could go one way or the other. In an ideal world, we could unlock and then see how it goes, but if we are determined not to re-lock then I think a delay is the only option left.

    --AS
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837
    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    I know plenty of older people who have been vaxxed but are wary of a full reopening as it would increase their chances of running into people like you who have chosen not to get vaccinated. Wake up. It’s your f****** fault as much as anyone’s. Unless you have been vaccinated, in my book you lose any right whatsoever to criticise the government for keeping restrictions. And I say this as someone who is sitting here livid with what the government is doing and has written (again) to my MP imploring him to vote against the government.

    They can ensure the risk is zero by staying in their homes, social distancing and wearing masks or ensuring they only meet people outside their bubble in the open air. That's their choice.
    Well I’ll tell you what I’d do instead. Id have the army pin you down at gunpoint with a needle. And if necessary inject you with AZN into your eyeball. Because while there’s a big body of unvaccinated people out there who are vulnerable to hospitalisation from covid, normal service will not resume in the healthcare sector. If you don’t like it, you’ve got a month to find somewhere else to call home.
    FFS Moonshine many other governments are unlocking with much lower levels of vaccination. Its almost like NOT being vaccinated is more a guarantee of freedom that being vaccinated.

    It is our government that is devaluing your vaccination currency, not me.
    The BMA said this morning no other Country in Europe was unlocking or near to

    So who are these many other governments unlocking
    https://www.politico.eu/article/netherlands-coronavirus-lockdown-ends-june-5/
    "Museums, theaters, cinemas and a wide range of other venues can reopen across The Netherlands from June 5, Prime Minister Mark Rutte announced late Friday.

    "This is actually the end of the lockdown," he told a news conference.

    Restaurants will be allowed to offer indoor dining again and opening hours can be extended until 10pm. The Dutch will also be allowed to invite up to four people to their homes instead of two.

    However, employees should still go to workplaces as little as possible, for the time being. "We're not there yet," Rutte cautioned.

    A strict lockdown has been in place since mid-December.

    Rutte predicted the vaccination campaign will bring more improvements , although the summer will not yet be "completely normal." The government is still warning that travelling entails risks.

    If the number of infections and hospitalizations continue to move in the right direction, more restrictions will be relaxed from June 30, Rutte added.

    Citizens will then be allowed to host up to eight people in their homes and restaurants and bars will be permitted to stay open until midnight.
    "

    It does seem that we're frequently describing our own remaining restrictions as "lockdown" whilst other countries continuing to follow remaining restrictions are "out of lockdown"

    I think the term has been hopelessly eroded.
    I mean, I went to the cinema weeks ago. I've eaten out in restaurants indoors and gone to pubs frequently. And been able to go indoors with more than four people.
    Quite!

    Today's threads had some absolute nonsense comments (not this matter particularly, but the general fantasising about reality) and it's very tiresome. Almost as bad as the run-up to a GE. And, still to come this evening, the ceremonial throwing of toys out of prams.

    --AS
    I think the main issue with this delay is the precedent it sets. If a delay is based on what might be rather than what is it makes one wonder what is to stop further delays.
    Not seen many constructive replies addressing this point. At best it is more people will have been jabbed/jabbed twice. If that is the case lets set a clear release date when those numbers reach x.

    The reality is this lockdown life suits a lot of people, most of them government voters. They have become the client state and their votes make the end of lockdown very hard to get to.
    They have to keep to their promise to stop financial support. This is the best chance of turning popular opinion, which is vital to this following-rather-than-leading government. If the support gets extended yet again I'll really start to worry.
    Yes sadly people are going to have suffer financial pain, or know people who are, for minds to change. I think the alternative that could work is to say when 70% (or whatever) have had second jabs lockdown ends. That would perhaps create comfort for the concerned.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    alex_ said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Mail at it again i see with this headline
    Covid cases soar 36% amid fears Boris will delay unlocking BEYOND July 19 and may even REVERSE his road-map - despite desperate vaccine push

    Who,is,writing for,them now. Independent sage and zero,covid zealots.
    lord knows if i took the mail seriously id end up schizophrenic
    It’s poison. It really is (apart from this is money).
    Some of the SAGE scientists realising they’ve got a problem if there are limited changes to restriction (even some loosening) and the doomsday models look overcooked?

    Reverse the roadmap however? Problem magically goes away! It’s the tightening of restrictions that has done the trick...
    Except the restrictions aren’t planned to be tightened. The opposite, in fact.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,426

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    I know plenty of older people who have been vaxxed but are wary of a full reopening as it would increase their chances of running into people like you who have chosen not to get vaccinated. Wake up. It’s your f****** fault as much as anyone’s. Unless you have been vaccinated, in my book you lose any right whatsoever to criticise the government for keeping restrictions. And I say this as someone who is sitting here livid with what the government is doing and has written (again) to my MP imploring him to vote against the government.

    They can ensure the risk is zero by staying in their homes, social distancing and wearing masks or ensuring they only meet people outside their bubble in the open air. That's their choice.
    Well I’ll tell you what I’d do instead. Id have the army pin you down at gunpoint with a needle. And if necessary inject you with AZN into your eyeball. Because while there’s a big body of unvaccinated people out there who are vulnerable to hospitalisation from covid, normal service will not resume in the healthcare sector. If you don’t like it, you’ve got a month to find somewhere else to call home.
    FFS Moonshine many other governments are unlocking with much lower levels of vaccination. Its almost like NOT being vaccinated is more a guarantee of freedom that being vaccinated.

    It is our government that is devaluing your vaccination currency, not me.
    The BMA said this morning no other Country in Europe was unlocking or near to

    So who are these many other governments unlocking
    https://www.politico.eu/article/netherlands-coronavirus-lockdown-ends-june-5/
    Sadly Big G has been hoodwinked by misleading information on GB News.
    Is was a direct quote by the head of the BMA

    You are obsessed with GBnews
    Did you realise that Big G North Wales is an anagram for “GB News harlot”?

    Downright spooky.
    And garden Walker is an anagram of R E Glad Wanker.
    “Taz” is Amharaic for “one who suckles at the camel’s bottom”.

    Aww, poor Mr Glad Wanker. Of the ‘dish it but can’t take it’ tendency.
    I’m saddened you wish to debase the site with obscenity, and base name-calling in lieu of argument.

    Expected better from you.
    Big G was offended by your anagram of his name, I chose humour as an option. It was somewhat a cheap shot.

    I did choose my name after the great wrestling commentator Taz, or Tazz, depending on the promotion.
    I had you down more as a “Hacksaw Jim Duggan” fan.

    https://prowrestling.fandom.com/wiki/Jim_Duggan
    With his trusty two by four !

    Remember him well.

    And Jerry the King Lawler. Use to work with a guy called Jim Lawler and half the time I called him Jerry.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,675
    edited June 2021
    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    "Police don't know the law":

    Extraordinary - @metpoliceuk account tweeting that "gatherings of more than 30 people are illegal" when there is a specific exception for protests

    https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1404467573714980869?s=20

    Also they tweet "illegal under the guidelines"

    If they're "guidelines" they aren't "law" - so they can't be "illegal".....

    The Rozzers don't know the law and try and bully the public with arrest?

    I am even more shocked than when it turned out Contrarian isn't in touch with the public when it comes to Covid-19
    One piece of advice that I've seen you and other legal people on here give is to never accept a police caution, it came in handy for one of my friends who was just walking through a crime scene but the police picked him out as a suspect from CCTV. They wanted to give him a caution, he refused and said either arrest and charge what you have or fuck off. Obviously they fucked off. I've posted that advice in our WhatsApp group loads of times and he said afterwards if he hadn't had the advice he'd probably have accepted the caution without realising it would destroy his career in financial services.
    It's also possible to have inappropriate cautions deleted (as it seems this one clearly would have been), so it would not necessarily have destroyed his career.
    Would have been a serious PITA, though.
    Sadly even having them deleted can be a problem.

    With enhanced CRBs and now enhanced DBSs the potential arrest etc may still show (depending on the crime and discretion of the rozzers.)

    It is to avoid the Ian Huntley issue.

    A friend of mine was questioned under caution due to a rape allegation, which appeared on some enhanced checks.

    The person who made the allegation admitted later that she made it up because she was in a relationship and didn't want to say she had cheated.

    Means he avoids any job that involves a DBS check because he doesn't want to have to go through that trauma, again.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,240

    TimS said:

    It's so depressing that the PM can simply ignore parliamentary procedure and remain untouchable. If he puts his mind to it he could really do some serious damage to the institution while he remains popular in the polls. Blair was similarly unbothered by checks and balances during his pomp, but there was at least the suggestion of outrage in the popular media and on the BBC. That sense of outrage seems to have dissipated.

    Now it is Boris doing it, the right-leaning press don’t care.
    Like the Spectator?

    I cannot think of a previous example of a Speaker accusing No 10 of misleading the House. It is a another sign of how bad relations are getting between the Speaker and the Prime Minister.

    https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1404470184065355778?s=20
    That extract, at least, casts no judgment either way.
    Click the link:

    Hoyle said that he had been told no decisions had been taken only to find out that there was an embargoed document setting out what changes were coming. A visibly furious Hoyle declared from the chair that: ‘This House is being misled’.

    Considering that misleading the House is a resigning matter, this is a remarkably serious accusation for the Speaker to level against Downing Street. It is not hard to follow it through to its logical conclusion; and I cannot think of a previous example of a Speaker accusing No. 10 of misleading the House. It is another sign of how bad relations between the Speaker and the Prime Minister have become.


    Not a lot of "don't care" there....
    Again, the writer does not pass his own opinion, albeit the Speaker’s view is vividly conveyed.

    (I tend not to click on Spectator links as I do not have a sub)
    However the logical conclusion is also pretty obvious. If the PM has coldly misled the House, we should have a new PM before Compline and the Johnsons won't get to enjoy that expensive redecoration. It's just that it's such a nuclear button that nobody really wants to mention it. And I doubt that will happen.

    The problem is one that any teacher, parent or pet owner will recognise. If you let small instances of misbehaviour slip, that will be taken as a sign to escalate the misbehaviour. And then you either have to swallow the worse behaviour or respond really brutally.

    Normally you don't need to treat adults like that. Only puppies and children.
    And the Prime Minister.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413
    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    I know plenty of older people who have been vaxxed but are wary of a full reopening as it would increase their chances of running into people like you who have chosen not to get vaccinated. Wake up. It’s your f****** fault as much as anyone’s. Unless you have been vaccinated, in my book you lose any right whatsoever to criticise the government for keeping restrictions. And I say this as someone who is sitting here livid with what the government is doing and has written (again) to my MP imploring him to vote against the government.

    They can ensure the risk is zero by staying in their homes, social distancing and wearing masks or ensuring they only meet people outside their bubble in the open air. That's their choice.
    Well I’ll tell you what I’d do instead. Id have the army pin you down at gunpoint with a needle. And if necessary inject you with AZN into your eyeball. Because while there’s a big body of unvaccinated people out there who are vulnerable to hospitalisation from covid, normal service will not resume in the healthcare sector. If you don’t like it, you’ve got a month to find somewhere else to call home.
    FFS Moonshine many other governments are unlocking with much lower levels of vaccination. Its almost like NOT being vaccinated is more a guarantee of freedom that being vaccinated.

    It is our government that is devaluing your vaccination currency, not me.
    The BMA said this morning no other Country in Europe was unlocking or near to

    So who are these many other governments unlocking
    https://www.politico.eu/article/netherlands-coronavirus-lockdown-ends-june-5/
    "Museums, theaters, cinemas and a wide range of other venues can reopen across The Netherlands from June 5, Prime Minister Mark Rutte announced late Friday.

    "This is actually the end of the lockdown," he told a news conference.

    Restaurants will be allowed to offer indoor dining again and opening hours can be extended until 10pm. The Dutch will also be allowed to invite up to four people to their homes instead of two.

    However, employees should still go to workplaces as little as possible, for the time being. "We're not there yet," Rutte cautioned.

    A strict lockdown has been in place since mid-December.

    Rutte predicted the vaccination campaign will bring more improvements , although the summer will not yet be "completely normal." The government is still warning that travelling entails risks.

    If the number of infections and hospitalizations continue to move in the right direction, more restrictions will be relaxed from June 30, Rutte added.

    Citizens will then be allowed to host up to eight people in their homes and restaurants and bars will be permitted to stay open until midnight.
    "

    It does seem that we're frequently describing our own remaining restrictions as "lockdown" whilst other countries continuing to follow remaining restrictions are "out of lockdown"

    I think the term has been hopelessly eroded.
    I mean, I went to the cinema weeks ago. I've eaten out in restaurants indoors and gone to pubs frequently. And been able to go indoors with more than four people.
    Quite!

    Today's threads had some absolute nonsense comments (not this matter particularly, but the general fantasising about reality) and it's very tiresome. Almost as bad as the run-up to a GE. And, still to come this evening, the ceremonial throwing of toys out of prams.

    --AS
    I think the main issue with this delay is the precedent it sets. If a delay is based on what might be rather than what is it makes one wonder what is to stop further delays.
    Not seen many constructive replies addressing this point. At best it is more people will have been jabbed/jabbed twice. If that is the case lets set a clear release date when those numbers reach x.

    The reality is this lockdown life suits a lot of people, most of them government voters. They have become the client state and their votes make the end of lockdown very hard to get to.
    They have to keep to their promise to stop financial support. This is the best chance of turning popular opinion, which is vital to this following-rather-than-leading government. If the support gets extended yet again I'll really start to worry.
    However. What if removing all support doesn't poll well?
    No evidence this lot will ever do it if it doesn't.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205

    Quite.

    I'd be interested to see whether there's any vetting of the emails @SimonMcCoyTV
    is reading out on GB News right now - someone claiming to be a paramedic saying they haven't dealt with a covid patient in three months (when we have thousands of cases a day) sounds a bit @_DHOTYA


    https://twitter.com/stokel/status/1404473305881616385

    It's perfectly possible, Torbay and South Devon NHS Foundation trust has had 8 admissions in the last 3 months.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    RobD said:

    alex_ said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Mail at it again i see with this headline
    Covid cases soar 36% amid fears Boris will delay unlocking BEYOND July 19 and may even REVERSE his road-map - despite desperate vaccine push

    Who,is,writing for,them now. Independent sage and zero,covid zealots.
    lord knows if i took the mail seriously id end up schizophrenic
    It’s poison. It really is (apart from this is money).
    Some of the SAGE scientists realising they’ve got a problem if there are limited changes to restriction (even some loosening) and the doomsday models look overcooked?

    Reverse the roadmap however? Problem magically goes away! It’s the tightening of restrictions that has done the trick...
    Except the restrictions aren’t planned to be tightened. The opposite, in fact.
    No that was my point. And why Sage could have a problem. So far in this pandemic their models have barely been tested because they’ve always been immediately followed by substantial changes (either in restrictions, or discovery of eg. new variants not known about when models were produced). So implying that they’re making a last ditch effort to get a head of steam going for tightening restrictions.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    Pulpstar said:



    They can ensure the risk is zero by staying in their homes, social distancing and wearing masks or ensuring they only meet people outside their bubble in the open air. That's their choice.

    The same logic would argue that if you run around firing a pistol, we can exercise our free choice to stay at home so you don't hit us. We can, but it doesn't make it right.
    I'm not so worried about the unvaccinated. The virus will mutate and acquire partial reistance to the vaccines (As is shown with 1 dose AZ against delta). The truth is that it may well end up in a form where it simply spreads through the entire population (Both unvaxxed and vaxxed) but the vaccinated have vastly milder symptons. If the unvaccinated choose to cough up their own lungs that's on them.
    Can you explain reasons other than medical corruption for the restrictions on Ivermectin, HCQ and other drugs proven in RCTs to work against COVID and without significant side-effects?

    I suggest you watch this video sent me by a friend who used to work in the NHS ... but long retired (she's 69)
    https://youtu.be/-_NNTVJzqtY

    It includes the inventor of mRNA vaccines, who thinks the principle is still fine but these products have been severely botched and launched prematurely.

    I'm ~20% of the way through. It seems it could be a larger version of the 1976 H1N1 vaccine disaster. Not that it will be revealed quickly, especially in the UK:

    1) MSM censorship is on a scale not envisaged in 1976
    2) Larger disasters give more incentive to cover up, to protect even more reputations.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited June 2021

    TimS said:

    It's so depressing that the PM can simply ignore parliamentary procedure and remain untouchable. If he puts his mind to it he could really do some serious damage to the institution while he remains popular in the polls. Blair was similarly unbothered by checks and balances during his pomp, but there was at least the suggestion of outrage in the popular media and on the BBC. That sense of outrage seems to have dissipated.

    Now it is Boris doing it, the right-leaning press don’t care.
    Like the Spectator?

    I cannot think of a previous example of a Speaker accusing No 10 of misleading the House. It is a another sign of how bad relations are getting between the Speaker and the Prime Minister.

    https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1404470184065355778?s=20
    That extract, at least, casts no judgment either way.
    Click the link:

    Hoyle said that he had been told no decisions had been taken only to find out that there was an embargoed document setting out what changes were coming. A visibly furious Hoyle declared from the chair that: ‘This House is being misled’.

    Considering that misleading the House is a resigning matter, this is a remarkably serious accusation for the Speaker to level against Downing Street. It is not hard to follow it through to its logical conclusion; and I cannot think of a previous example of a Speaker accusing No. 10 of misleading the House. It is another sign of how bad relations between the Speaker and the Prime Minister have become.


    Not a lot of "don't care" there....
    Again, the writer does not pass his own opinion, albeit the Speaker’s view is vividly conveyed.

    (I tend not to click on Spectator links as I do not have a sub)
    However the logical conclusion is also pretty obvious. If the PM has coldly misled the House, we should have a new PM before Compline and the Johnsons won't get to enjoy that expensive redecoration. It's just that it's such a nuclear button that nobody really wants to mention it. And I doubt that will happen.

    The problem is one that any teacher, parent or pet owner will recognise. If you let small instances of misbehaviour slip, that will be taken as a sign to escalate the misbehaviour. And then you either have to swallow the worse behaviour or respond really brutally.

    Normally you don't need to treat adults like that. Only puppies and children.
    And the Prime Minister.
    I just watched the clip of the Speaker.

    He is fuming but then he says something like “I’m rapidly coming to a point where I might need to consider some other avenue, unless blah blah”.

    Meanwhile, one imagines Boris (or his accomplices) sniggering like Mutley in the corner.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,555
    felix said:



    They can ensure the risk is zero by staying in their homes, social distancing and wearing masks or ensuring they only meet people outside their bubble in the open air. That's their choice.

    The same logic would argue that if you run around firing a pistol, we can exercise our free choice to stay at home so you don't hit us. We can, but it doesn't make it right.
    The site has become increasingly ridiculous over this extended lockdown idea. Especially as those of us who do live outside the UK can generally testify that in their fundamentals most people and their countries are pretty much of a muchness - certainly wrt to democracies.
    And as the UK consists of 4 competitive nations each with jurisdiction the fact that no one of them is jumping ahead to do what is so obviously the right thing from the unlock point of view may suggest that there may be sense behind the caution.

  • ridaligo said:

    HYUFD said:

    71% of English voters back the PM delaying lockdown tonight by 4 weeks, 24% opposed.

    However opposition rises to 28% amongst Tory voters and 29% amongst Leave voters and 34% amongst 18 to 24 year olds

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1404461708517777412?s=20

    Those are amazing figures and shows how frightened the populace have become



    I will not be voting Tory again unless and until they rediscover their conservative backbone - this issue is far too important to just let it slide. .
    That's 3 and counting then Squareroot.

    The first sign of a party in trouble is when the diehards refuse to see the obvious.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222

    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    "Police don't know the law":

    Extraordinary - @metpoliceuk account tweeting that "gatherings of more than 30 people are illegal" when there is a specific exception for protests

    https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1404467573714980869?s=20

    Also they tweet "illegal under the guidelines"

    If they're "guidelines" they aren't "law" - so they can't be "illegal".....

    The Rozzers don't know the law and try and bully the public with arrest?

    I am even more shocked than when it turned out Contrarian isn't in touch with the public when it comes to Covid-19
    One piece of advice that I've seen you and other legal people on here give is to never accept a police caution, it came in handy for one of my friends who was just walking through a crime scene but the police picked him out as a suspect from CCTV. They wanted to give him a caution, he refused and said either arrest and charge what you have or fuck off. Obviously they fucked off. I've posted that advice in our WhatsApp group loads of times and he said afterwards if he hadn't had the advice he'd probably have accepted the caution without realising it would destroy his career in financial services.
    It's also possible to have inappropriate cautions deleted (as it seems this one clearly would have been), so it would not necessarily have destroyed his career.
    Would have been a serious PITA, though.
    Sadly even having them deleted can be a problem.

    With enhanced CRBs and now enhanced DBSs the potential arrest etc may still show (depending on the crime and discretion of the rozzers.)

    It is to avoid the Ian Huntley issue.

    A friend of mine was questioned under caution due to a rape allegation, which appeared on some enhanced checks.

    The person who made the allegation admitted later that she made it up because she was in a relationship and didn't want to say she had cheated.

    Means he avoids any job that involves a DBS check because he doesn't want to have to go through that trauma, again.
    Yes, I'm not defending the system, which is seriously flawed.
    Just pointing out that should anyone mistakenly accept a caution, that need not be the end of the matter.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837
    edited June 2021

    Stocky said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    I know plenty of older people who have been vaxxed but are wary of a full reopening as it would increase their chances of running into people like you who have chosen not to get vaccinated. Wake up. It’s your f****** fault as much as anyone’s. Unless you have been vaccinated, in my book you lose any right whatsoever to criticise the government for keeping restrictions. And I say this as someone who is sitting here livid with what the government is doing and has written (again) to my MP imploring him to vote against the government.

    They can ensure the risk is zero by staying in their homes, social distancing and wearing masks or ensuring they only meet people outside their bubble in the open air. That's their choice.
    Well I’ll tell you what I’d do instead. Id have the army pin you down at gunpoint with a needle. And if necessary inject you with AZN into your eyeball. Because while there’s a big body of unvaccinated people out there who are vulnerable to hospitalisation from covid, normal service will not resume in the healthcare sector. If you don’t like it, you’ve got a month to find somewhere else to call home.
    FFS Moonshine many other governments are unlocking with much lower levels of vaccination. Its almost like NOT being vaccinated is more a guarantee of freedom that being vaccinated.

    It is our government that is devaluing your vaccination currency, not me.
    The BMA said this morning no other Country in Europe was unlocking or near to

    So who are these many other governments unlocking
    https://www.politico.eu/article/netherlands-coronavirus-lockdown-ends-june-5/
    "Museums, theaters, cinemas and a wide range of other venues can reopen across The Netherlands from June 5, Prime Minister Mark Rutte announced late Friday.

    "This is actually the end of the lockdown," he told a news conference.

    Restaurants will be allowed to offer indoor dining again and opening hours can be extended until 10pm. The Dutch will also be allowed to invite up to four people to their homes instead of two.

    However, employees should still go to workplaces as little as possible, for the time being. "We're not there yet," Rutte cautioned.

    A strict lockdown has been in place since mid-December.

    Rutte predicted the vaccination campaign will bring more improvements , although the summer will not yet be "completely normal." The government is still warning that travelling entails risks.

    If the number of infections and hospitalizations continue to move in the right direction, more restrictions will be relaxed from June 30, Rutte added.

    Citizens will then be allowed to host up to eight people in their homes and restaurants and bars will be permitted to stay open until midnight.
    "

    It does seem that we're frequently describing our own remaining restrictions as "lockdown" whilst other countries continuing to follow remaining restrictions are "out of lockdown"

    I think the term has been hopelessly eroded.
    I mean, I went to the cinema weeks ago. I've eaten out in restaurants indoors and gone to pubs frequently. And been able to go indoors with more than four people.
    Quite!

    Today's threads had some absolute nonsense comments (not this matter particularly, but the general fantasising about reality) and it's very tiresome. Almost as bad as the run-up to a GE. And, still to come this evening, the ceremonial throwing of toys out of prams.

    --AS
    I think the main issue with this delay is the precedent it sets. If a delay is based on what might be rather than what is it makes one wonder what is to stop further delays.
    I do understand, but I think this pandemic *has* to be dealt with partly on what-might-be. By the time we react to what is happening now, it's too late.

    At least, I think that's so if we want unlocking to be irreversible: one has to project forward to know whether the next step of unlocking has a reasonable probability of disastrous overload of the NHS. My own view, having looked at the data in some detail, is that it could go one way or the other. In an ideal world, we could unlock and then see how it goes, but if we are determined not to re-lock then I think a delay is the only option left.

    --AS
    What does irreversible really mean here and why do we want it so much?

    Surely no release is going to be irreversible, as there will always be some risk, especially from new variants.

    Why is it better to stay in lockdown for 12-18 months, and who is this better for, than to have 3 months of closer to normality whilst we can now?

    Irreversible is just a conjuring trick by the politicians to make them sound responsible, after they were irresponsible over Xmas party time and the Indian variant.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,217
    As an aside, the 5-2 is very slightly skinny, as I'd expect the LDs to do slightly better than in Witney. But it's merely reasonable value rather than incredibly exciting.

    The Greens, fwiw, need to start trying to win these byelections.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Details still being thrashed out, but Boris Johnson to announce a new series of sporting test events with bigger crowds. Events expected to include Euro 2020 games at Wembley, England v India Test, Wimbledon, Open Championship, British Grand Prix & Challenge Cup final.

    https://twitter.com/MattHughesDM/status/1404478982825857032

    Then weddings must be on.

    Or I fear for Boris and friends from the nation's brides and mothers-of-brides...
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    dixiedean said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    I know plenty of older people who have been vaxxed but are wary of a full reopening as it would increase their chances of running into people like you who have chosen not to get vaccinated. Wake up. It’s your f****** fault as much as anyone’s. Unless you have been vaccinated, in my book you lose any right whatsoever to criticise the government for keeping restrictions. And I say this as someone who is sitting here livid with what the government is doing and has written (again) to my MP imploring him to vote against the government.

    They can ensure the risk is zero by staying in their homes, social distancing and wearing masks or ensuring they only meet people outside their bubble in the open air. That's their choice.
    Well I’ll tell you what I’d do instead. Id have the army pin you down at gunpoint with a needle. And if necessary inject you with AZN into your eyeball. Because while there’s a big body of unvaccinated people out there who are vulnerable to hospitalisation from covid, normal service will not resume in the healthcare sector. If you don’t like it, you’ve got a month to find somewhere else to call home.
    FFS Moonshine many other governments are unlocking with much lower levels of vaccination. Its almost like NOT being vaccinated is more a guarantee of freedom that being vaccinated.

    It is our government that is devaluing your vaccination currency, not me.
    The BMA said this morning no other Country in Europe was unlocking or near to

    So who are these many other governments unlocking
    https://www.politico.eu/article/netherlands-coronavirus-lockdown-ends-june-5/
    "Museums, theaters, cinemas and a wide range of other venues can reopen across The Netherlands from June 5, Prime Minister Mark Rutte announced late Friday.

    "This is actually the end of the lockdown," he told a news conference.

    Restaurants will be allowed to offer indoor dining again and opening hours can be extended until 10pm. The Dutch will also be allowed to invite up to four people to their homes instead of two.

    However, employees should still go to workplaces as little as possible, for the time being. "We're not there yet," Rutte cautioned.

    A strict lockdown has been in place since mid-December.

    Rutte predicted the vaccination campaign will bring more improvements , although the summer will not yet be "completely normal." The government is still warning that travelling entails risks.

    If the number of infections and hospitalizations continue to move in the right direction, more restrictions will be relaxed from June 30, Rutte added.

    Citizens will then be allowed to host up to eight people in their homes and restaurants and bars will be permitted to stay open until midnight.
    "

    It does seem that we're frequently describing our own remaining restrictions as "lockdown" whilst other countries continuing to follow remaining restrictions are "out of lockdown"

    I think the term has been hopelessly eroded.
    I mean, I went to the cinema weeks ago. I've eaten out in restaurants indoors and gone to pubs frequently. And been able to go indoors with more than four people.
    Quite!

    Today's threads had some absolute nonsense comments (not this matter particularly, but the general fantasising about reality) and it's very tiresome. Almost as bad as the run-up to a GE. And, still to come this evening, the ceremonial throwing of toys out of prams.

    --AS
    I think the main issue with this delay is the precedent it sets. If a delay is based on what might be rather than what is it makes one wonder what is to stop further delays.
    Not seen many constructive replies addressing this point. At best it is more people will have been jabbed/jabbed twice. If that is the case lets set a clear release date when those numbers reach x.

    The reality is this lockdown life suits a lot of people, most of them government voters. They have become the client state and their votes make the end of lockdown very hard to get to.
    They have to keep to their promise to stop financial support. This is the best chance of turning popular opinion, which is vital to this following-rather-than-leading government. If the support gets extended yet again I'll really start to worry.
    However. What if removing all support doesn't poll well?
    No evidence this lot will ever do it if it doesn't.
    I know. That's what I fear. The populace loves money being printed on their own behalf and fuck the consequences.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Taz said:

    tlg86 said:

    Taz said:

    tlg86 said:

    Quite.

    I'd be interested to see whether there's any vetting of the emails @SimonMcCoyTV
    is reading out on GB News right now - someone claiming to be a paramedic saying they haven't dealt with a covid patient in three months (when we have thousands of cases a day) sounds a bit @_DHOTYA


    https://twitter.com/stokel/status/1404473305881616385

    Not as bad as Sky giving a platform to an anti-vaxxer the other day.
    Who was that ?
    Deepti Gurdasani.
    I need to find the interview.
    I wouldn't bother – just another zerocovidian/antivaxxer loon.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    Andy_JS said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I think tonight's announcement could sink the Tories in Chesham and Amersham, with crucial votes going over to the Reform Party.

    I doubt it myself but I'd love to see the LDs take the seat. The government have had it easy for far too long. Politics is not meant to be like this. Governments are meant to be unpopular. Especially Tory governments making a godawful mess of things.
    The LD candidate is running on a policy of anti-HS2 and anti-new housebuilding in certain areas. Some LDs have refused to campaign for her because of this alleged nimbyism.
    Now Brexit is done the LDs main electoral appeal is to Nimbys in the Home Counties, if the LDs voteshare is up significantly on Thursday Nimbyism will be a key factor
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,708

    Nicky Campbell swaps BBC Radio 5 Live Breakfast for new phone-in show

    https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-57472944

    I presume everybody will be taking a paycut given they are all doing less work and need another body to fill in the gap.

    That looks like dumbing down - replacing a properly crafted hour of journalism / reporting with a phone-in.

    Essentially copying LBC.
  • Stocky said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    I know plenty of older people who have been vaxxed but are wary of a full reopening as it would increase their chances of running into people like you who have chosen not to get vaccinated. Wake up. It’s your f****** fault as much as anyone’s. Unless you have been vaccinated, in my book you lose any right whatsoever to criticise the government for keeping restrictions. And I say this as someone who is sitting here livid with what the government is doing and has written (again) to my MP imploring him to vote against the government.

    They can ensure the risk is zero by staying in their homes, social distancing and wearing masks or ensuring they only meet people outside their bubble in the open air. That's their choice.
    Well I’ll tell you what I’d do instead. Id have the army pin you down at gunpoint with a needle. And if necessary inject you with AZN into your eyeball. Because while there’s a big body of unvaccinated people out there who are vulnerable to hospitalisation from covid, normal service will not resume in the healthcare sector. If you don’t like it, you’ve got a month to find somewhere else to call home.
    FFS Moonshine many other governments are unlocking with much lower levels of vaccination. Its almost like NOT being vaccinated is more a guarantee of freedom that being vaccinated.

    It is our government that is devaluing your vaccination currency, not me.
    The BMA said this morning no other Country in Europe was unlocking or near to

    So who are these many other governments unlocking
    https://www.politico.eu/article/netherlands-coronavirus-lockdown-ends-june-5/
    "Museums, theaters, cinemas and a wide range of other venues can reopen across The Netherlands from June 5, Prime Minister Mark Rutte announced late Friday.

    "This is actually the end of the lockdown," he told a news conference.

    Restaurants will be allowed to offer indoor dining again and opening hours can be extended until 10pm. The Dutch will also be allowed to invite up to four people to their homes instead of two.

    However, employees should still go to workplaces as little as possible, for the time being. "We're not there yet," Rutte cautioned.

    A strict lockdown has been in place since mid-December.

    Rutte predicted the vaccination campaign will bring more improvements , although the summer will not yet be "completely normal." The government is still warning that travelling entails risks.

    If the number of infections and hospitalizations continue to move in the right direction, more restrictions will be relaxed from June 30, Rutte added.

    Citizens will then be allowed to host up to eight people in their homes and restaurants and bars will be permitted to stay open until midnight.
    "

    It does seem that we're frequently describing our own remaining restrictions as "lockdown" whilst other countries continuing to follow remaining restrictions are "out of lockdown"

    I think the term has been hopelessly eroded.
    I mean, I went to the cinema weeks ago. I've eaten out in restaurants indoors and gone to pubs frequently. And been able to go indoors with more than four people.
    Quite!

    Today's threads had some absolute nonsense comments (not this matter particularly, but the general fantasising about reality) and it's very tiresome. Almost as bad as the run-up to a GE. And, still to come this evening, the ceremonial throwing of toys out of prams.

    --AS
    I think the main issue with this delay is the precedent it sets. If a delay is based on what might be rather than what is it makes one wonder what is to stop further delays.
    I do understand, but I think this pandemic *has* to be dealt with partly on what-might-be. By the time we react to what is happening now, it's too late.

    At least, I think that's so if we want unlocking to be irreversible: one has to project forward to know whether the next step of unlocking has a reasonable probability of disastrous overload of the NHS. My own view, having looked at the data in some detail, is that it could go one way or the other. In an ideal world, we could unlock and then see how it goes, but if we are determined not to re-lock then I think a delay is the only option left.

    --AS
    What does irreversible really mean here and why do we want it so much?

    Surely no release is going to be irreversible, as there will always be some risk, especially from new variants.

    Why is it better to stay in lockdown for 12-18 months, and who is this better for, than to have 3 months of closer to normality whilst we can now?

    Irreversible is just a conjuring trick by the politicians to make them sound responsible, after they were irresponsible over Xmas party time and the Indian variant.
    I'm not defending the irreversibility policy. It clearly limits our range of actions a lot, but I assume the that government wants to keep its commitments. Well...

    --AS
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Unfortunately, given where we are now, and looking at the figures, it's probably the case that the government has no choice but to delay re-opening. They shouldn't be criticised for that decision itself (although they will be by many); instead they should be seriously castigated for the series of blunders which has forced them into that decision. The most serious in the lead-up to this third wave was not stopping flights from India, a completely obvious blunder. They also blundered in not setting the scene for 'vaccine passports', which would have been a massively better choice than keeping venues closed altogether, or making them unviable.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,240

    Dom was right, wasn’t he?

    Though in helping elevate BJ to PM, Dom is pretty culpable.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837

    Stocky said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    I know plenty of older people who have been vaxxed but are wary of a full reopening as it would increase their chances of running into people like you who have chosen not to get vaccinated. Wake up. It’s your f****** fault as much as anyone’s. Unless you have been vaccinated, in my book you lose any right whatsoever to criticise the government for keeping restrictions. And I say this as someone who is sitting here livid with what the government is doing and has written (again) to my MP imploring him to vote against the government.

    They can ensure the risk is zero by staying in their homes, social distancing and wearing masks or ensuring they only meet people outside their bubble in the open air. That's their choice.
    Well I’ll tell you what I’d do instead. Id have the army pin you down at gunpoint with a needle. And if necessary inject you with AZN into your eyeball. Because while there’s a big body of unvaccinated people out there who are vulnerable to hospitalisation from covid, normal service will not resume in the healthcare sector. If you don’t like it, you’ve got a month to find somewhere else to call home.
    FFS Moonshine many other governments are unlocking with much lower levels of vaccination. Its almost like NOT being vaccinated is more a guarantee of freedom that being vaccinated.

    It is our government that is devaluing your vaccination currency, not me.
    The BMA said this morning no other Country in Europe was unlocking or near to

    So who are these many other governments unlocking
    https://www.politico.eu/article/netherlands-coronavirus-lockdown-ends-june-5/
    "Museums, theaters, cinemas and a wide range of other venues can reopen across The Netherlands from June 5, Prime Minister Mark Rutte announced late Friday.

    "This is actually the end of the lockdown," he told a news conference.

    Restaurants will be allowed to offer indoor dining again and opening hours can be extended until 10pm. The Dutch will also be allowed to invite up to four people to their homes instead of two.

    However, employees should still go to workplaces as little as possible, for the time being. "We're not there yet," Rutte cautioned.

    A strict lockdown has been in place since mid-December.

    Rutte predicted the vaccination campaign will bring more improvements , although the summer will not yet be "completely normal." The government is still warning that travelling entails risks.

    If the number of infections and hospitalizations continue to move in the right direction, more restrictions will be relaxed from June 30, Rutte added.

    Citizens will then be allowed to host up to eight people in their homes and restaurants and bars will be permitted to stay open until midnight.
    "

    It does seem that we're frequently describing our own remaining restrictions as "lockdown" whilst other countries continuing to follow remaining restrictions are "out of lockdown"

    I think the term has been hopelessly eroded.
    I mean, I went to the cinema weeks ago. I've eaten out in restaurants indoors and gone to pubs frequently. And been able to go indoors with more than four people.
    Quite!

    Today's threads had some absolute nonsense comments (not this matter particularly, but the general fantasising about reality) and it's very tiresome. Almost as bad as the run-up to a GE. And, still to come this evening, the ceremonial throwing of toys out of prams.

    --AS
    I think the main issue with this delay is the precedent it sets. If a delay is based on what might be rather than what is it makes one wonder what is to stop further delays.
    I do understand, but I think this pandemic *has* to be dealt with partly on what-might-be. By the time we react to what is happening now, it's too late.

    At least, I think that's so if we want unlocking to be irreversible: one has to project forward to know whether the next step of unlocking has a reasonable probability of disastrous overload of the NHS. My own view, having looked at the data in some detail, is that it could go one way or the other. In an ideal world, we could unlock and then see how it goes, but if we are determined not to re-lock then I think a delay is the only option left.

    --AS
    What does irreversible really mean here and why do we want it so much?

    Surely no release is going to be irreversible, as there will always be some risk, especially from new variants.

    Why is it better to stay in lockdown for 12-18 months, and who is this better for, than to have 3 months of closer to normality whilst we can now?

    Irreversible is just a conjuring trick by the politicians to make them sound responsible, after they were irresponsible over Xmas party time and the Indian variant.
    I'm not defending the irreversibility policy. It clearly limits our range of actions a lot, but I assume the that government wants to keep its commitments. Well...

    --AS
    But irreversibility is an impossibility, well actually the only way to guarantee they keep that commitment is to never end the lockdown........
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Nearly time for the Wibbling Windbag and the Angels of Death.

    Let's wait and see what he says. If there are no guarantees about what happens at the end of the delay then they're probably teeing up rolling restrictions until at least next April.

    Look out in particular for any hints that they want to stall whilst they vaccinate kids, which should be enough to put us back to Autumn and activate a load of other excuses.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,600
    According to Smarkets the Tories are going to win C&A easily.

    https://smarkets.com/event/42195394/politics/uk/by-elections/chesham-and-amersham-by-election
  • HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I think tonight's announcement could sink the Tories in Chesham and Amersham, with crucial votes going over to the Reform Party.

    I doubt it myself but I'd love to see the LDs take the seat. The government have had it easy for far too long. Politics is not meant to be like this. Governments are meant to be unpopular. Especially Tory governments making a godawful mess of things.
    The LD candidate is running on a policy of anti-HS2 and anti-new housebuilding in certain areas. Some LDs have refused to campaign for her because of this alleged nimbyism.
    Now Brexit is done
    Until recently I tended to believe this statement but it looks as if Brexit in its current format is heading into big trouble.

    It was always the case that the Northern Ireland sell-out contained the seeds of its own destruction, unless politicians conducted themselves with extraordinary levels of good grace and magnanimity: two qualities hitherto unknown to the species.

    Now we're in real trouble.

    I expect Brexit 1.0 to crash and burn. Brexit 2.0 could well see a complete re-modelling with a No Deal format, which is going to have some devastating consequences.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/06/14/time-start-preparing-no-deal-20/

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830


    Pulpstar said:



    They can ensure the risk is zero by staying in their homes, social distancing and wearing masks or ensuring they only meet people outside their bubble in the open air. That's their choice.

    The same logic would argue that if you run around firing a pistol, we can exercise our free choice to stay at home so you don't hit us. We can, but it doesn't make it right.
    I'm not so worried about the unvaccinated. The virus will mutate and acquire partial reistance to the vaccines (As is shown with 1 dose AZ against delta). The truth is that it may well end up in a form where it simply spreads through the entire population (Both unvaxxed and vaxxed) but the vaccinated have vastly milder symptons. If the unvaccinated choose to cough up their own lungs that's on them.
    Can you explain reasons other than medical corruption for the restrictions on Ivermectin, HCQ and other drugs proven in RCTs to work against COVID and without significant side-effects?

    I suggest you watch this video sent me by a friend who used to work in the NHS ... but long retired (she's 69)
    https://youtu.be/-_NNTVJzqtY

    It includes the inventor of mRNA vaccines, who thinks the principle is still fine but these products have been severely botched and launched prematurely.

    I'm ~20% of the way through. It seems it could be a larger version of the 1976 H1N1 vaccine disaster. Not that it will be revealed quickly, especially in the UK:

    1) MSM censorship is on a scale not envisaged in 1976
    2) Larger disasters give more incentive to cover up, to protect even more reputations.
    A conspiracy between big pharma and the broth industry.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,450

    Unfortunately, given where we are now, and looking at the figures, it's probably the case that the government has no choice but to delay re-opening. They shouldn't be criticised for that decision itself (although they will be by many); instead they should be seriously castigated for the series of blunders which has forced them into that decision. The most serious in the lead-up to this third wave was not stopping flights from India, a completely obvious blunder. They also blundered in not setting the scene for 'vaccine passports', which would have been a massively better choice than keeping venues closed altogether, or making them unviable.

    How many idiots on here were bleating about vaccine passports? As some terrible infringement of liberty?

    It was fecking obvious that vaxports were and are the way out, for millions of people and thousands of businesses. The Israelis used them, not sure anyone complained

    The government feebly conceded to these halfwits
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729

    ridaligo said:

    HYUFD said:

    71% of English voters back the PM delaying lockdown tonight by 4 weeks, 24% opposed.

    However opposition rises to 28% amongst Tory voters and 29% amongst Leave voters and 34% amongst 18 to 24 year olds

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1404461708517777412?s=20

    Those are amazing figures and shows how frightened the populace have become



    I will not be voting Tory again unless and until they rediscover their conservative backbone - this issue is far too important to just let it slide. .
    That's 3 and counting then Squareroot.

    The first sign of a party in trouble is when the diehards refuse to see the obvious.
    I am not a diehard.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,708
    What has Hoyle said?

    No mention on BBC politics website.
  • Dom was right, wasn’t he?

    Yes but the problem was the messenger not the message.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Stocky said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    I know plenty of older people who have been vaxxed but are wary of a full reopening as it would increase their chances of running into people like you who have chosen not to get vaccinated. Wake up. It’s your f****** fault as much as anyone’s. Unless you have been vaccinated, in my book you lose any right whatsoever to criticise the government for keeping restrictions. And I say this as someone who is sitting here livid with what the government is doing and has written (again) to my MP imploring him to vote against the government.

    They can ensure the risk is zero by staying in their homes, social distancing and wearing masks or ensuring they only meet people outside their bubble in the open air. That's their choice.
    Well I’ll tell you what I’d do instead. Id have the army pin you down at gunpoint with a needle. And if necessary inject you with AZN into your eyeball. Because while there’s a big body of unvaccinated people out there who are vulnerable to hospitalisation from covid, normal service will not resume in the healthcare sector. If you don’t like it, you’ve got a month to find somewhere else to call home.
    FFS Moonshine many other governments are unlocking with much lower levels of vaccination. Its almost like NOT being vaccinated is more a guarantee of freedom that being vaccinated.

    It is our government that is devaluing your vaccination currency, not me.
    The BMA said this morning no other Country in Europe was unlocking or near to

    So who are these many other governments unlocking
    https://www.politico.eu/article/netherlands-coronavirus-lockdown-ends-june-5/
    "Museums, theaters, cinemas and a wide range of other venues can reopen across The Netherlands from June 5, Prime Minister Mark Rutte announced late Friday.

    "This is actually the end of the lockdown," he told a news conference.

    Restaurants will be allowed to offer indoor dining again and opening hours can be extended until 10pm. The Dutch will also be allowed to invite up to four people to their homes instead of two.

    However, employees should still go to workplaces as little as possible, for the time being. "We're not there yet," Rutte cautioned.

    A strict lockdown has been in place since mid-December.

    Rutte predicted the vaccination campaign will bring more improvements , although the summer will not yet be "completely normal." The government is still warning that travelling entails risks.

    If the number of infections and hospitalizations continue to move in the right direction, more restrictions will be relaxed from June 30, Rutte added.

    Citizens will then be allowed to host up to eight people in their homes and restaurants and bars will be permitted to stay open until midnight.
    "

    It does seem that we're frequently describing our own remaining restrictions as "lockdown" whilst other countries continuing to follow remaining restrictions are "out of lockdown"

    I think the term has been hopelessly eroded.
    I mean, I went to the cinema weeks ago. I've eaten out in restaurants indoors and gone to pubs frequently. And been able to go indoors with more than four people.
    Quite!

    Today's threads had some absolute nonsense comments (not this matter particularly, but the general fantasising about reality) and it's very tiresome. Almost as bad as the run-up to a GE. And, still to come this evening, the ceremonial throwing of toys out of prams.

    --AS
    I think the main issue with this delay is the precedent it sets. If a delay is based on what might be rather than what is it makes one wonder what is to stop further delays.
    I do understand, but I think this pandemic *has* to be dealt with partly on what-might-be. By the time we react to what is happening now, it's too late.

    At least, I think that's so if we want unlocking to be irreversible: one has to project forward to know whether the next step of unlocking has a reasonable probability of disastrous overload of the NHS. My own view, having looked at the data in some detail, is that it could go one way or the other. In an ideal world, we could unlock and then see how it goes, but if we are determined not to re-lock then I think a delay is the only option left.

    --AS
    The due was really cast once the first lockdown happened (or particularly the second). Once you’ve established the principle of extreme precautionary action in a potentially exponential pandemic situation based on unknown data you’ve set a precedent for all future pandemics. It is a worthwhile exercise to consider how we might have responded in the initial stages of previous pandemics, or potential pandemics, if we had gone through Covid previously (normalising to the current day - ie. things like mass wfh being possible).

    Your argument is totally clear cut in relation to last November/December. Nothing fundamental had changed and there was no reason to thing the virus wouldn’t hit us as badly or worse than in the first wave.

    But now it’s a bit different. There ARE grounds, with vaccines, for effectively treating it as a new virus. One that will not ravage the old and vulnerable to the same extent. And that should make the equation different.

    Or as I say every emerging threat in the future will be treated on the basis of caution. With devastating long term consequences.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I think tonight's announcement could sink the Tories in Chesham and Amersham, with crucial votes going over to the Reform Party.

    I doubt it myself but I'd love to see the LDs take the seat. The government have had it easy for far too long. Politics is not meant to be like this. Governments are meant to be unpopular. Especially Tory governments making a godawful mess of things.
    The LD candidate is running on a policy of anti-HS2 and anti-new housebuilding in certain areas. Some LDs have refused to campaign for her because of this alleged nimbyism.
    Now Brexit is done
    Until recently I tended to believe this statement but it looks as if Brexit in its current format is heading into big trouble.

    It was always the case that the Northern Ireland sell-out contained the seeds of its own destruction, unless politicians conducted themselves with extraordinary levels of good grace and magnanimity: two qualities hitherto unknown to the species.

    Now we're in real trouble.

    I expect Brexit 1.0 to crash and burn. Brexit 2.0 could well see a complete re-modelling with a No Deal format, which is going to have some devastating consequences.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/06/14/time-start-preparing-no-deal-20/

    Unlikely, the NI Assembly can vote down the Protocol in 2024 on current terms with the EU anyway
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Dom was right, wasn’t he?

    Though in helping elevate BJ to PM, Dom is pretty culpable.
    Oh yeh.

    It was very funny when he claimed that in offering up a Johnson v Corbyn contest, the system had failed.

    This is an era butter-rich in irony.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    Boris

    Cannot eliminate it and must learn to live with it
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Boris says that the most recent reopening has inevitably led to an increase in cases and hospitalisations.

    Hopefully someone asks the @MarqueeMark question. How much worse are things than had been planned for?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,450
    I don't wish to be unchivalrous, but Laura Kuensberg suddenly looks much much older, quite shocking. Has she been ill? Covid?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Pretty clear that this is about saving a few lives rather than protecting the NHS.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited June 2021
    “A proportion of the elderly and vulnerable may succumb to the variant even if they’ve had two jabs.”

    Project fear.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Boris

    Cannot eliminate it and must learn to live with it

    He's talking bollocks.

    He went straight on to wibble about the remaining elderly and vulnerable for whom the vaccines won't work.

    It's the vaccines are not 100% effective argument, again.

    His idea of living with it will consist of endless delay and endless restrictions.

    Wouldn't trust him as far as I could throw him, frankly.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    MikeL said:

    Nicky Campbell swaps BBC Radio 5 Live Breakfast for new phone-in show

    https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-57472944

    I presume everybody will be taking a paycut given they are all doing less work and need another body to fill in the gap.

    That looks like dumbing down - replacing a properly crafted hour of journalism / reporting with a phone-in.

    Essentially copying LBC.
    More of an extension of his call in slot from 0900-1000 by the sound of it.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,707
    How the fuck does Boris square anything he just said with a 4 week delay? The man is an absolute plank.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413
    July 29?
    Oh
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,929
    Andy_JS said:

    I think tonight's announcement could sink the Tories in Chesham and Amersham, with crucial votes going over to the Reform Party.

    Perhaps. Without wanting to start another property porn thread, there are some big old houses in C&A where whole families could WFH without seeing each other from breakfast till bedtime. Most people aren't planning a wedding or running a pub. In my experience, most things that ought to make a difference turn out not to.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    Weddings can go ahead with more than 30 subject to social distancing
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    29 July. Weddings and wakes can go to over 30 with social distancing - how does that work?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited June 2021
    Wow Boris is saying, double dose hasn't broken the link between cases and deaths.....
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Everything is awful forever
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    Will not go beyond the 19th July
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    edited June 2021
    Boris confirms we will not proceed with Stage 4 and there will not be an end to current restrictions on June 21st.

    Second jabs to be accelerated, and the government is bringing forward target to get every adult having a first jab.

    Weddings and wakes with more than 30 guests allowed from June 21st though provided social distancing.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413
    dixiedean said:

    July 29?
    Oh

    Edit. Mis-speak. 19th.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Leon said:

    Unfortunately, given where we are now, and looking at the figures, it's probably the case that the government has no choice but to delay re-opening. They shouldn't be criticised for that decision itself (although they will be by many); instead they should be seriously castigated for the series of blunders which has forced them into that decision. The most serious in the lead-up to this third wave was not stopping flights from India, a completely obvious blunder. They also blundered in not setting the scene for 'vaccine passports', which would have been a massively better choice than keeping venues closed altogether, or making them unviable.

    How many idiots on here were bleating about vaccine passports? As some terrible infringement of liberty?

    It was fecking obvious that vaxports were and are the way out, for millions of people and thousands of businesses. The Israelis used them, not sure anyone complained

    The government feebly conceded to these halfwits
    It was Sir Keir's big thing - They were "UnBritish", everyone loved it


    Although he didn't quite say it, he just hedged his bets
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Fifty thousand brides breath a collective sigh of relief!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Leon said:

    I don't wish to be unchivalrous, but Laura Kuensberg suddenly looks much much older, quite shocking. Has she been ill? Covid?

    She reminds me of Stephen Hendry
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    Wow Boris is saying, double dose hasn't broken the link between cases and deaths.....

    He's lying.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533

    “A proportion of the elderly and vulnerable may succumb to the variant even if they’ve had two jabs.”

    Project fear.

    Not really, sadly. The Lancet report today says that AZ, two weeks after the second dose, is only 60% protective against the Delta variant, while Pfizer is 79% protective.

    We need a tweaked variant for the winter, preferably from the Pfizer yeram.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited June 2021
    tlg86 said:

    Wow Boris is saying, double dose hasn't broken the link between cases and deaths.....

    He's lying.
    If the scientists are really thinking that, we are f##ked....but how much that is just what they told him to delay a bit.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    "Confident that we won't need more than four weeks."

    He was confident that there wouldn't be delay at all until about five minutes ago.

    There will be more excuses next time.

    Nobody is going to believe that July 19th will be met.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    tlg86 said:

    Wow Boris is saying, double dose hasn't broken the link between cases and deaths.....

    He's lying.
    If the scientists are really thinking that, we are f##ked....but how much that is just what they told him to delay a bit.
    Indeed. And it's pointless fucking around. We need to get on with our lives.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    “A proportion of the elderly and vulnerable may succumb to the variant even if they’ve had two jabs.”

    Project fear.

    What a load of crap from Boris. People die of things all the time. COVID is just another one of those diseases that will kill old people like the flu.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    tlg86 said:

    29 July. Weddings and wakes can go to over 30 with social distancing - how does that work?

    My sons wedding on the 31st July was increased by the minister from 30 to 40 yesterday, and a further 30 guests may assemble in the Church grounds before going to their marquee

    This is in Wales of course
This discussion has been closed.