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The betting markets are over-stating Andy Burnham’s chances of succeeding Starmer – politicalbetting

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,124
    edited June 2021
    dixiedean said:

    Actually the Left in Canada were incandescent. Particularly as electoral reform was one of the major prongs Trudeau won the previous election on. The system hugely benefits the centre. Which is where Trudeau sits.

    Liberals 33.1% 157 seats.
    Tories 34.3% 121 seats.
    Left 30.2% 59 seats.
    Seats wise maybe but not in terms of forming a government, for example Corbyn would not have got as close as he did in 2017 to leading a leftwing Labour government with an overall majority under PR
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,690
    RobD said:

    Oh good lord, my bad.

    I recently did a Brexiter's apostrophe.

    I typed 'our's' instead of 'ours', I couldn't even blame autocorrect as I typed it on a laptop.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,124

    I thought the Reform candidate isn't standing?
    There is a ReformUK candidate in Chesham and Amersham on Thursday who is campaigning hard on an end all restrictions ticket and even has his own battlebus

    https://twitter.com/Alex4CandA/status/1402588085800648709?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Alex4CandA/status/1403042652745052163?s=20

  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,853
    The Tragic Downfall of Amy Maxmen is proof positive there is a cover-up about Covid, linked to the lab leak hypothesis


    There is no longer any room for dispute

    We await the final proof, or otherwise, re the lab leak itself.

    This is quite a moment, it will go unnoticed for a while
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Don't sweat on it, we all get cranky sometimes. Especially me.

    If the Supreme Blunderer finally does let us out of jail in a few weeks' time then all will be well, but as @Leon points out the batshit crazy wing of the scientific establishment is on the march, so those of us who are dead nervous are not lacking in justification.
    You’re really not “in jail”. Bars are open at restricted capacity, and nightclubs are shut, but life for most people still goes on.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,825
    edited June 2021
    MrEd said:

    We probably would do a variation - spend several months a year somewhere else and come back to the UK for various things but I share your views.
    But some good news the other way. With Trump gone, me and my wife are back on with our US roadtrip.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Sandpit said:

    You’re really not “in jail”. Bars are open at restricted capacity, and nightclubs are shut, but life for most people still goes on.
    True, but the real concern here is (a) that the remaining restrictions will continue indefinitely and (b) when the cases keep going up, the Government may indeed panic and reverse back into lockdown.

    We all hope that neither of those things will happen, but you'd be foolish to dismiss the prospect out of hand. Weak, frightened, vacillating PM + a lot of catastrophist public health radicals = disaster potential.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,554
    edited June 2021
    HYUFD said:

    There is a ReformUK candidate in Chesham and Amersham on Thursday who is campaigning hard on an end all restrictions ticket and even has his own battlebus

    https://twitter.com/Alex4CandA/status/1402588085800648709?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Alex4CandA/status/1403042652745052163?s=20

    I am confusing it with Reclaim and the Batley by-election....too many parties / by-elections.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,554
    Umpires have made some stinkers this test match.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,554
    edited June 2021
    85 runs ahead is too many given how England don't bat deep....
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,532
    edited June 2021
    Pulpstar said:

    Hmm have to wonder - is it supply that's hit our vax program or complacency ?

    Complacent lethargy is a defining feature of the UK.

    Smug, self-satisfied complacent lethargy is a defining feature of the UK establishment.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,825
    Leon said:

    Everyone is anxious. And bloody angry at the government for landing us in this

    We must all be nice to each other, for a bit, if we can. Or we can try, anyway
    You're going to be nice to me for a change then, are you?
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    edited June 2021
    HYUFD said:

    There is a ReformUK candidate in Chesham and Amersham on Thursday who is campaigning hard on an end all restrictions ticket and even has his own battlebus

    https://twitter.com/Alex4CandA/status/1402588085800648709?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Alex4CandA/status/1403042652745052163?s=20

    A vote for Reform in C&A (or anywhere else for that matter) would do far more to lift lockdown restrictions than getting double jabbed.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,571
    FF43 said:

    ..

    He's lashing out. The interviewer called him out for being a liar, which he doesn't like, even though he is one. Probably OK although we can't be sure. The chaos that surrounds him is real enough even if he is false in other ways.
    The quote at 12.21.34 is telling: "you've just got to do whatever it takes to protect life"

    The covid zealots have won. The war is over. We will not learn to live with this, like we do flu (which kills people every winter). We will do whatever it takes to avoid loss of life.

    Whatever it takes.

    Whatever it takes is a biosecurity state with lockdown and social distancing and rules for ever.

    Susan Michie was right.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    True, but the real concern here is (a) that the remaining restrictions will continue indefinitely and (b) when the cases keep going up, the Government may indeed panic and reverse back into lockdown.

    We all hope that neither of those things will happen, but you'd be foolish to dismiss the prospect out of hand. Weak, frightened, vacillating PM + a lot of catastrophist public health radicals = disaster potential.
    The Johnson government will commit to nothing. The irreversible journey is perfectly reversible if it suits.

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,532
    isam said:

    Yeah sounds sensible, but had there been footage of thousands of British Citizens suffering with Covid and relying on overwhelmed Indian health services, the outrage would have been through the roof.

    Boris shouldn’t have said a specific date for reopening I guess, just said he’d review things every fortnight or so
    The outrage from some would have been through the roof.

    The response from the majority would have been "couldn't give a toss, they shouldn't have gone there".
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,690
    Yes!

    Switzerland are awesome.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    I am confusing it with Reclaim and the Batley by-election....too many parties / by-elections.
    Reclaim pulled out of B&S I think, but will run a candidate in the GE
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,690

    Umpires have made some stinkers this test match.

    Shows how useless James Bracey is, he said the batsman hit it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364

    A vote for Reform in C&A (or anywhere else for that matter) would do far more to lift lockdown restrictions than getting double jabbed.

    Are you really suggesting that if no one got vaccinated but voted for Reform things would be in a better state?
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,932
    If it is genuinely a delay what is gained from waiting till Monday to announce it? Other than lessening the opportunities to soften everyone up by leaking that it's already been decided anyway?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575

    Shows how useless James Bracey is, he said the batsman hit it.
    If only Yorkshire had a decent international standard wicketkeeper.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,825

    The outrage from some would have been through the roof.

    The response from the majority would have been "couldn't give a toss, they shouldn't have gone there".
    Which of those two starkly different reactions would you have had, Richard?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,690
    ydoethur said:

    If only Yorkshire had a decent international standard wicketkeeper.
    We do, he just gets treated very badly by the selectors.

    Did James Bracey win a raffle where the prize was to play for England?

    I mean right now he's looking like a pound shop Richard Blakey.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    RobD said:

    Are you really suggesting that if no one got vaccinated but voted for Reform things would be in a better state?
    That's a false choice. Reform believe in protection of the vulnerable but freedom for the rest of us.

    Texas and Florida exist. They are REAL. Europe is opening up with far lower vaccination rates. Why are they doing that?

  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    The Johnson government will commit to nothing. The irreversible journey is perfectly reversible if it suits.

    Well exactly. And nobody would believe any commitment it ever made to anything, regardless.

    The quote at 12.21.34 is telling: "you've just got to do whatever it takes to protect life"

    The covid zealots have won. The war is over. We will not learn to live with this, like we do flu (which kills people every winter). We will do whatever it takes to avoid loss of life.

    Whatever it takes.

    Whatever it takes is a biosecurity state with lockdown and social distancing and rules for ever.

    Susan Michie was right.
    And it won't just be Covid. It'll be all respiratory illnesses that they'll seek to permanently suppress. We'll never be rid of these evil masks.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538

    Independent SAGE predict England will be 4 down before they even catch up.

    Optimistic...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,124
    edited June 2021
    RobD said:

    Are you really suggesting that if no one got vaccinated but voted for Reform things would be in a better state?
    Florida, which voted for Trump in both 2016 and 2020 and has a GOP governor, is now restriction free even though it has had fewer of its residents fully vaccinated as a percentage than we have
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,334
    Stocky said:

    How can you do that DA? You have a property abroad don't you?
    I travelled to my place in Brittany via the back roads of the Netherlands and Belgium multiple times. However I am an EU citizen which makes it easier... I reckon I could get to Spain or Portugal with no problem.

    The government haven't got a fucking clue what they are doing on restrictions or enforcement. Ignore them.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,297
    Has Burns really gone second ball?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,532
    kinabalu said:

    Which of those two starkly different reactions would you have had, Richard?
    Need you ask :wink:

    I'll add I have as little concern for anti-vaxxers.

    With choice comes responsibility for the consequences.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,950
    Who was it saying we wouldn't lose by an innings?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Oh dear...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,690
    tlg86 said:

    Optimistic...
    England are losing this match by an innings.

    Hopefully today, so I can watch England v. Croatia without distraction.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    If it is genuinely a delay what is gained from waiting till Monday to announce it? Other than lessening the opportunities to soften everyone up by leaking that it's already been decided anyway?

    Because the hacks who question him after these Downing St pressers are mostly even thicker than he is.

    Boris: "More lockdown lite for a month, no guarantee that there won't be more after that, so sorry."

    All 14 journos: "So, when will foreign holidays start up again?"
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,690
    Andy_JS said:

    Has Burns really gone second ball?

    Yes.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,825

    The quote at 12.21.34 is telling: "you've just got to do whatever it takes to protect life"

    The covid zealots have won. The war is over. We will not learn to live with this, like we do flu (which kills people every winter). We will do whatever it takes to avoid loss of life.

    Whatever it takes.

    Whatever it takes is a biosecurity state with lockdown and social distancing and rules for ever.

    Susan Michie was right.
    Or alternatively, Johnson saying something off the cuff that he thinks has a nice ring to it and counteracts what he (correctly) perceives to be the popular perception that for all his charms he can be a little cavalier about things sometimes.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    HYUFD said:

    Florida, which voted for Trump in both 2016 and 2010 and has a GOP governor, is now restriction free even though it has had fewer of its residents vaccinated as a percentage than we have
    Texas too.

    I think Nevada opened up recently too.

    Some states have outlawed mask mandates.

    They are living life as normal. Free and unburdened by the ghastly doom porn and fear propaganda that permeates our country and makes life so horrible.

    For the first time in my life I sort of have an idea of how an eastern European might have felt before the fall of the Berlin Wall. Looking at the West with a bitter envy. Free, rich and happy.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    England are losing this match by an innings.

    Hopefully today, so I can watch England v. Croatia without distraction.
    So, you want England to hurry up and lose so you can watch England lose?

    Well, it's a thought.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,571
    Martin Kulldorff
    @MartinKulldorff
    ·
    14h
    "You cannot just focus on one disease like COVID, you have to look at public health as a whole. That has been the huge failure of our pandemic response."

    - my interview with with
    @DanProft
    &
    @AmyJacobson
    on
    @MorningAnswer

    https://twitter.com/MartinKulldorff/status/1403498994823839745
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364

    That's a false choice. Reform believe in protection of the vulnerable but freedom for the rest of us.

    Texas and Florida exist. They are REAL. Europe is opening up with far lower vaccination rates. Why are they doing that?

    Ah, so vaccinations are useful then? You were claiming that anyone voting for reform would do far more to get rid of lockdown than a vaccination. I think that's a load of bollocks.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,554
    edited June 2021
    Remember Henry has the worst bowling average of any bowler that has played more than 10 tests for NZ....he's no Richard Hadilee.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Who’s a Test batsman, who nicks one to the slips that wasn’t close to the wicket, second ball of an innings?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,554
    edited June 2021

    Because the hacks who question him after these Downing St pressers are mostly even thicker than he is.

    Boris: "More lockdown lite for a month, no guarantee that there won't be more after that, so sorry."

    All 14 journos: "So, when will foreign holidays start up again?"
    Followed by what about some wanky arts festival....or how restrictions are racist, sexist, homophobic...

    And not a single question on why 6 million doses of a vaccine aren't been used.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,124
    RobD said:

    Ah, so vaccinations are useful then? You were claiming that anyone voting for reform would do far more to get rid of lockdown than a vaccination. I think that's a load of bollocks.
    Not necessarily, if Farage was PM now we would certainly be getting Freedom Day on June 21st, much as DeSantis has now ended all restrictions in Florida as the Governor there now.

    Of course scientifically the more we get double vaccinated the better we are protected from Covid but Reform UK and the GOP in the US take the view that ultimately we should now be free to live our lives again without constraint
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Well exactly. And nobody would believe any commitment it ever made to anything, regardless. And it won't just be Covid. It'll be all respiratory illnesses that they'll seek to permanently suppress. We'll never be rid of these evil masks.
    When the public do turn against the government for what they are doing, as they inevitably will one day, they will turn very hard.

    It'll be 'never again' territory.

    I think Baker and the cleverer Tories know that.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,690

    So, you want England to hurry up and lose so you can watch England lose?

    Well, it's a thought.
    An iconic moment in England’s history.

    Hopefully this summer the current England squad channel the spirit of Butcher.


  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,554

    An iconic moment in England’s history.

    Hopefully this summer the current England squad channel the spirit of Butcher.


    If only we had such a good defender in the squad.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,932

    An iconic moment in England’s history.

    Hopefully this summer the current England squad channel the spirit of Butcher.


    Between that and the Farage monstrosity you are really spoiling us...
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    When the public do turn against the government for what they are doing, as they inevitably will one day, they will turn very hard.

    It'll be 'never again' territory.

    I think Baker and the cleverer Tories know that.
    I reckon the Government will probably get away with all of this. Their elderly support base loves lockdowns, and the Opposition are absolutely useless and show no sign of having either the willingness or ability to improve.

    This could be Japan, you know. We could have one party rule for many decades.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,853

    If it is genuinely a delay what is gained from waiting till Monday to announce it? Other than lessening the opportunities to soften everyone up by leaking that it's already been decided anyway?

    Because it is going to be excruciating for Boris "Indian border" Johnson, when he has to admit his fuck-up has fucked the country

    Most Brits won't notice - yet, but he knows and those around him know.

    He doesn't want this public embarrassment to happen when is hosting the G7 - and who can blame him, emotionally
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,124

    Texas too.

    I think Nevada opened up recently too.

    Some states have outlawed mask mandates.

    They are living life as normal. Free and unburdened by the ghastly doom porn and fear propaganda that permeates our country and makes life so horrible.

    For the first time in my life I sort of have an idea of how an eastern European might have felt before the fall of the Berlin Wall. Looking at the West with a bitter envy. Free, rich and happy.
    It depends on the state, generally the Biden voting states like New York and California still have some capacity restrictions, especially indoors and masks mandates still in place, while the majority of Trump voting states are now completely restriction free

    https://www.aarp.org/politics-society/government-elections/info-2020/coronavirus-state-restrictions.html
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    And today's OBN goes to.....the short guy:

    Macron to Biden: "Mr Pres I want to thank you…we have to deal w/this pandemic we have to face a lot of crisis, climate change–for all these issues what we need is coop–it’s great to have a US pres v.willing to coop–i think what you demonstrated is that leadership is partnership"

    https://twitter.com/RymMomtaz/status/1403718655431561218?s=20
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    RobD said:

    Ah, so vaccinations are useful then? You were claiming that anyone voting for reform would do far more to get rid of lockdown than a vaccination. I think that's a load of bollocks.
    Yes they are useful but our government is making our freedom conditional on turning Britain into a human pin cushion. Vaccinate or stay locked down is the deal.

    Reform will guarantee our freedom come what may. No more lockdowns.

    The tories 'rule nothing out'

    Reform DO rule stuff out. They rule out taking away my freedom. That's why I support them and donate to them.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,690

    Between that and the Farage monstrosity you are really spoiling us...
    I have a new meme supplier.

    But the jokes are all mine.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    kinabalu said:

    You're going to be nice to me for a change then, are you?
    I don't think Susan Michie is a scientist but a behavioural psychologist, probably also one of the people Private Eye called 'the Marxist-Leninist aristocracy'.

    Vote Conservative, get Communist?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,682

    Texas too.

    I think Nevada opened up recently too.

    Some states have outlawed mask mandates.

    They are living life as normal. Free and unburdened by the ghastly doom porn and fear propaganda that permeates our country and makes life so horrible.

    For the first time in my life I sort of have an idea of how an eastern European might have felt before the fall of the Berlin Wall. Looking at the West with a bitter envy. Free, rich and happy.
    Sorry for being blunt.

    That's up there with children saying they know how victims of a famine feel, because they only have two chocolate biscuits.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Martin Kulldorff
    @MartinKulldorff
    ·
    14h
    "You cannot just focus on one disease like COVID, you have to look at public health as a whole. That has been the huge failure of our pandemic response."

    - my interview with with
    @DanProft
    &
    @AmyJacobson
    on
    @MorningAnswer

    https://twitter.com/MartinKulldorff/status/1403498994823839745

    Yes, we'll eventually start worrying about other disease. Like flu! Which can also, oh so conveniently, be suppressed with masks and social distancing. Which will continue forever.

    Public health, being, of course, the sole responsibility and interest of government. The 'NHS with country attached' model moves another step closer.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    If only we had such a good defender in the squad.
    Pat Butcher preferable to Stones on previous form

    Although he has had a good season

    I guess we will find out how much of that was down to playing alongside Dias
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,825

    Need you ask :wink:

    I'll add I have as little concern for anti-vaxxers.

    With choice comes responsibility for the consequences.
    I just thought I'd check. Never assume. I have noticed that you don't do a great deal of "walking a mile in another man's shoes." Metaphorically, I mean.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,297
    edited June 2021
    HYUFD said:

    I would expect a clear shift from Tory to ReformUK if Freedom Day is postponed by Boris next week as is likely.

    I doubt it would change the Labour or LD vote much but if the Reform candidate gets 5,000 votes or so in Thursday's Chesham and Amersham by election as a protest vote at the extended restrictions that could cut the Tory majority fall drastically and see the LDs get close even if the Tories scrape a hold
    I don't see them getting 5,000 votes which would be more than 10%. They might get around 5% and save their deposit.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,297
    Pavlyuchenkova 1-6 6-2 0-0 Krejcikova

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/tennis/54574377
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,031
    Great goal

    Wales equalise
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Wales!!!!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,690
    edited June 2021
    Rookie mistake from the Swiss.

    They should not have worn a white kit against the Welsh.

    The Welsh spend all year long chasing white things.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,031
    Andy_JS said:

    I don't see them getting 5,000 votes which would be more than 10%. They might get around 5% and save their deposit.
    I do not see them having any effect
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,690
    Called it, England are losing this by an innings.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    I don't think Susan Michie is a scientist but a behavioural psychologist, probably also one of the people Private Eye called 'the Marxist-Leninist aristocracy'.

    Vote Conservative, get Communist?
    The conservatives gave people like Michie power over ordinary Brits, something no conservative government would have ever dreamt of doing in the past under any circumstances.

    It is one of the things I hope to hold them responsible for one day.

    The modern 'conservative' party is the biggest exercise in political charlatanism in my life time bar none. They put criminals who misrepresent themselves to shame.

    A junior minister astonishingly claimed he was a 'libertarian conservative' the other day on Talk radio with a straight face. Right up there with some burglar pretending to be the gas man to get into some old person's home.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,124
    Andy_JS said:

    I don't see them getting 5,000 votes which would be more than 10%. They might get around 5% and save their deposit.
    52% of Tory voters want to end restrictions on weddings on 21st June, 35% of Tory voters want to end social distancing regulations and 23% of Tory voters even want to end all masks restrictions on June 21st. If most of that 23% of the 55% of the vote the Tories got in Chesham in 2019 went ReformUK then ReformUK could easily get 10% of the vote on Thursday

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/xoc1ldh9zg/TheTimes_Reopening_210603.pdf
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    HYUFD said:

    52% of Tory voters want to end restrictions on weddings on 21st June, 35% of Tory voters want to end social distancing regulations and 23% of Tory voters even want to end all masks restrictions on June 21st. If most of that 23% of the 55% of the vote the Tories got in Chesham in 2019 went ReformUK then ReformUK could easily get 10% of the vote on Thursday

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/xoc1ldh9zg/TheTimes_Reopening_210603.pdf
    They won't though. They will be lucky to get a couple of thousand, sadly.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575

    We do, he just gets treated very badly by the selectors.

    Did James Bracey win a raffle where the prize was to play for England?

    I mean right now he's looking like a pound shop Richard Blakey.
    He’s not had an easy time of it, certainly. I was a bit dubious when he was picked as keeper because although he’s capable - well, more capable than Buttler - it’s not really what he’s best at. But even leaving that aside, he’s clearly been affected by nerves. Unusually so. Generally, when he has a big moment to seize when batting for the Lions or in a set piece match, he’s raised his game. Doesn’t necessarily suggest the happiest of England squads at the moment.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,031

    The conservatives gave people like Michie power over ordinary Brits, something no conservative government would have ever dreamt of doing in the past under any circumstances.

    It is one of the things I hope to hold them responsible for one day.

    The modern 'conservative' party is the biggest exercise in political charlatanism in my life time bar none. They put criminals who misrepresent themselves to shame.

    A junior minister astonishingly claimed he was a 'libertarian conservative' the other day on Talk radio with a straight face. Right up there with some burglar pretending to be the gas man to get into some old person's home.
    Susan Michie is a member of Independent Sage, the go to group for the media to attack and undermine the government

    The conservatives did not give her a mouthpiece, that was our media
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,432
    Humour:


  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    I know that an academic's political views should be distinguished from their political activism (as long as they themselves attempt to do so) but you do wonder about the credibility of a communist whose field is developing techniques to alter/control human behaviour.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,690

    Susan Michie is a member of Independent Sage, the go to group for the media to attack and undermine the government

    The conservatives did not give her a mouthpiece, that was our media
    She's a member of SAGE.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/scientific-advisory-group-for-emergencies-sage-coronavirus-covid-19-response-membership/list-of-participants-of-sage-and-related-sub-groups
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575

    Susan Michie is a member of Independent Sage, the go to group for the media to attack and undermine the government

    The conservatives did not give her a mouthpiece, that was our media
    She’s a member of both:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/scientific-advisory-group-for-emergencies-sage-coronavirus-covid-19-response-membership/list-of-participants-of-sage-and-related-sub-groups#scientific-advisory-group-for-emergencies-sage
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575
    edited June 2021

    I know that an academic's political views should be distinguished from their political activism (as long as they themselves attempt to do so) but you do wonder about the credibility of a communist whose field is developing techniques to alter/control human behaviour.

    Do you? I’m pleased to hear you’re wondering. I came to the conclusion some time back that she had no credibility at all.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,690
    edited June 2021
    Yes! Switzerland.

    Edit - Feck VAR.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,532
    kinabalu said:

    I just thought I'd check. Never assume. I have noticed that you don't do a great deal of "walking a mile in another man's shoes." Metaphorically, I mean.
    Walking a mile in another man's shoes ?

    It's leads to allowing people to do what they want and then make excuses for them if it causes problems.

    I prefer a responsible rationality and accepting the consequences of your own choices.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805

    Yes! Switzerland.

    Offside
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,031
    Great VAR decision
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,554
    Time to give Hameed a go opening the batting.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575

    Yes! Switzerland.

    You’re sounding very positive about them this afternoon.

    I won’t get my coat, but I will get my bike.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,124

    They won't though. They will be lucky to get a couple of thousand, sadly.
    Even a couple of thousand in a lower turnout by election though would see the Tory majority down
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,031
    ydoethur said:

    She’s a member of both:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/scientific-advisory-group-for-emergencies-sage-coronavirus-covid-19-response-membership/list-of-participants-of-sage-and-related-sub-groups#scientific-advisory-group-for-emergencies-sage
    And that is the contradiction then
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,690
    ydoethur said:

    You’re sounding very positive about them this afternoon.

    I won’t get my coat, but I will get my bike.
    I'll cheer for anyone who plays against Wales, even France.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    ydoethur said:

    You’re sounding very positive about them this afternoon.

    I won’t get my coat, but I will get my bike.
    He's on a roll.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,554
    edited June 2021
    Michie should have been removed from SAGE ages ago...she constantly refuses to take any collective responsibility, it is pretty clear she is the source of a load of leaks and also sits on the deliberately misleading Independent SAGE.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,690
    Have to say ITV can get to feck for not showing any Euro 2020 match in UHD.

    Hurrah for the BBC for putting nearly all of their matches in UHD.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022

    Rookie mistake from the Swiss.

    They should not have worn a white kit against the Welsh.

    The Welsh spend all year long chasing white things.

    Actually I think you'll find it's because Wales think they are playing England.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Susan Michie is a member of Independent Sage, the go to group for the media to attack and undermine the government

    The conservatives did not give her a mouthpiece, that was our media
    Sorry but Michie is a member of SAGE not independent SAGE.

    Some SAGE scientists have already apologised for using unethical psychological techniques to intimidate Britons in the pandemic after being exposed in A State of Fear.

    Fraser Nelson reported that some SAGE scientists who demurred from main recommendations were intimidated by others.

    If this ends I want a full investigation into how and why this happened, how long it went on and what Michie's role was and remains.

    As I understand it certain propaganda techniques are a breach of international human rights laws and I would like to see the guilty prosecuted in court, and those conservative politicians who gave these people a free hand exposed.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,554
    edited June 2021

    Have to say ITV can get to feck for not showing any Euro 2020 match in UHD.

    Hurrah for the BBC for putting nearly all of their matches in UHD.

    BBC coverage of football isn't very good, ITV is utterly terrible....they are worse than pineapple on pizza while listening to Radiohead live.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    HYUFD said:

    Even a couple of thousand in a lower turnout by election though would see the Tory majority down
    We can but hope!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,825

    I reckon the Government will probably get away with all of this. Their elderly support base loves lockdowns, and the Opposition are absolutely useless and show no sign of having either the willingness or ability to improve.

    This could be Japan, you know. We could have one party rule for many decades.
    Based on here, the vitriol for delaying step 4 of the roadmap is mainly coming from right wing Leavers. It appears they have discovered that Boris Johnson is incompetent and untrustworthy, as is the government he leads. It remains to be seen how such people will react electorally. Perhaps they will abstain. Perhaps they will defect to Labour if Starmer can be replaced as leader by a Peter Bone type. Or perhaps they will still vote Tory.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,432
    stodge said:

    A couple of significant bits of European polling today - first, Italy: and the latest IPSOS poll

    PD-S&D: 21% (+2)
    FdI-ECR: 21% (+2)
    LEGA-ID: 20% (-2)
    M5S-NI: 14% (-1)
    FI-EPP: 9% (+1)
    A-S&D: 3% (+1)
    IV-RE: 2%
    SI-LEFT: 2%
    A1-S&D: 1% (-1)
    +E-RE: 1% (-1)
    EV-G/EFA: 1% (-1)

    Changes from last poll 27 May-1 Jun

    It's the first poll for ages which LEGA hasn't led. Their collapse in support from the mid-30s has been incredible. The Social Democrats have benefitted as have FdL (Brothers of Italy), the latest right-wing political incarnation which actually has roots back in the Italian Social Movement of the 1970s.

    In Germany, meanwhile, the latest Kantar Poll:

    CDU/CSU-EPP: 26% (+2)
    GRÜNE-G/EFA: 21% (-1)
    SPD-S&D: 16%
    FDP-RE: 13%
    AfD-ID: 11%
    LINKE-LEFT: 7%

    Changes from last poll 27 May-1 Jun

    Signs the Saxony-Anhalt election effect is already fading for the CDU and solid numbers again for the FDP who looks set to make big gains in the Bundestag along with the Greens.

    Lest we forget, the Italians have gotten rid of the "bonus" seats thing, so those percentage shares will be pretty much the seat shares in the lower house. In the upper house, it'll be a but more concentrated, but not much.

    Basically, to form a government you will need a minimum of either FdI + LEGA + FI , or PD + M5S + a bunch of small parties and a quite bit of luck in the upper house.

    If that is the result, it's hard to see a functioning Italian government emerging from the election.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575

    Sorry but Michie is a member of SAGE not independent SAGE.
    She’s a member of both.

    https://www.independentsage.org/who-are-independent-sage/

    As for the rest of your post, link please, given your track record.

    Merely because our scientists have been abject doesn’t mean anyone’s going to trust an anti-vaxxer.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,554
    Rob Key says he thinks by day 4 the pitch will spin...good job England aren't in this as obviously they haven't picked a spinner.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited June 2021
    Hmm

    After that performance, I think wales are probably a technical lay @ ~200/1
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,432
    kinabalu said:

    But some good news the other way. With Trump gone, me and my wife are back on with our US roadtrip.
    Unless one of you is an American citizen, you'll need to go via Canada or Mexico (for 14 days), due to the restrictions on non-US citizens travelling to the US.
This discussion has been closed.