The Ipsos-MORI Economic Optimism index jumps to its highest level for six years – politicalbetting.c

DougSeal said:

Sandpit said:

DougSeal said:

I really do think we need to keep more of an eye on this than people on here think...

Case numbers are pretty much now irrelevant. The important stat is numbers in hospital, which are remaining steady.

Hmmm...not looking that great either TBH in terms of trend...

Yes it is, that's pretty miniscule.

Plus people are presenting to hospitals with less severe illnesses that result in discharges quicker, rather than severe cases that end up on a ventilator.

On 30 April there were 1,153 patients in hospital.
On 31 May (latest data) there are 932 patients in hospital.

There's no upwards trend on patients in hospital.

DougSeal said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DougSeal said:

@BealeLab

“ Recent case data indeed not looking good, it would be folly to open up on 21 June. Were it not for variant delta (first detected in India), there would be no problem in fully opening domestic economy. Wouldn’t even be a serious debate. But here we are… again…”

There’s. No. Way. 21. June. Will. Happen.

June 21st will happen.

In the most literal sense of the date following the 20th, yes it will happen, but there cannot be any chance now of a full reopening of the economy,

Calm down Chicken Licken, there's every reason it should.

Philip_Thompson said:

DougSeal said:

Sandpit said:

DougSeal said:

I really do think we need to keep more of an eye on this than people on here think...

Case numbers are pretty much now irrelevant. The important stat is numbers in hospital, which are remaining steady.

Hmmm...not looking that great either TBH in terms of trend...

Yes it is, that's pretty miniscule.

Plus people are presenting to hospitals with less severe illnesses that result in discharges quicker, rather than severe cases that end up on a ventilator.

On 30 April there were 1,153 patients in hospital.
On 31 May (latest data) there are 932 patients in hospital.

There's no upwards trend on patients in hospital.

Hopefully you will be proved right. Let's see...

DougSeal said:

@BealeLab

“ Recent case data indeed not looking good, it would be folly to open up on 21 June. Were it not for variant delta (first detected in India), there would be no problem in fully opening domestic economy. Wouldn’t even be a serious debate. But here we are… again…”

There’s. No. Way. 21. June. Will. Happen.

You seem extremely confident, based on his assessment. As far as I can see, positive tests aren’t translating into hospitalisations. There will be an uptick in the latter, but given they are currently at a statistical zero (fewer people in hospital with covid than there are hospitals!) we can tolerate a lot more.

Worth reading Chris Hopson, NHS Providers on this…

This seems really concerning. 38 cases linked to one venue seems like a lot even if they didn’t all catch the virus there https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/local/fife/2288332/covid-scotland-outbreak-linked-to-styx-kirkcaldy-as-38-test-positive/

Andy_Cooke said:

Sandpit said:

DougSeal said:

I really do think we need to keep more of an eye on this than people on here think...

Case numbers are pretty much now irrelevant. The important stat is numbers in hospital, which are remaining steady.

They’re up.

That cases surge looks to have started about 20 days ago. So hospitalisations should be about 10 days lagged.

10 days ago, we were at 743 in hospital in England; this morning we were at 860.
The increase is primarily in the NW and East of England, where the Delta outbreaks are worst.

Could all be random fluctuations, but it’s still not ideal and not what I’d call flat.

Dashboard says 805, where does 860 come from? In the sw we have 13 in hospital in the entire region, with 1 admission and 1 on ventilation.

DougSeal said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DougSeal said:

@BealeLab

“ Recent case data indeed not looking good, it would be folly to open up on 21 June. Were it not for variant delta (first detected in India), there would be no problem in fully opening domestic economy. Wouldn’t even be a serious debate. But here we are… again…”

There’s. No. Way. 21. June. Will. Happen.

June 21st will happen.

In the most literal sense of the date following the 20th, yes it will happen, but there cannot be any chance now of a full reopening of the economy,

My work has a scheduled return to the office for the 5th of July, we've modified that to say only people who have been double jabbed will return to the office, everyone else has to wait until 10 days after their second jab.

I suspect the government will operate on those lines.

Malmesbury said:

Philip_Thompson said:

squareroot2 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Malmesbury said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Malmesbury said:

MaxPB said:

Floater said:

stodge said:

Philip_Thompson said:

In the past month the share of adult population to have received at least one dose of vaccine have gone from 66.6% to 76.8%
That means there's 30% fewer unvaccinated adults now than there were a month ago.

In the past month the share of adult population to have received two doses of vaccine have gone from 31.8% to 53%
That means there's 31% fewer adults without two doses now than there were a month ago.

Considering that vaccinations are being prioritised based upon need there's frankly ever fewer and fewer people left to be infected, even if cases increase.

Some significant local variations, Philip.

In Newham, 120,000 adults (48%) over the age of 30 have yet to receive a first vaccination. That's not an insignificant number and while, to now, the Borough has managed to dodge most of the infection surges, I can't believe our "luck" will last forever.

What is stopping them being vaccinated??

Stupidity.

No, every time they try and get a vaccination, a hypersonic UFO gets in the way....

Is that Jezza's excuse?

Well, if its a choice between

1) They chose not to and are responsible as moral agents
2) It was aliens

Which do you think he would chose?

Jews.

All of them?

Eh?

I'm saying that's what Jezza would choose. Without it even being an option, that's what he'd choose.

What about "Jewish Aliens"?

Ah.. now there's a thing.....

DecrepiterJohnL said:

turbotubbs said:

To stray off topic... Cristina Pagel in the guardian is now putting her hopes on the vaccination protection falling incredibly quickly in older people, specifically suggesting that for the most vulnerable it’s now at least three months since their last jab. I think this is terrible science. Reinfection after previous bought of Covid has been negligible, and there is every reason to think that vaccination will give as good, if not better protection. I think her belief is once more based on antibody titres falling, and neglecting that this is not the whole immune system. If this being peer review rather than paid by the guardian, it would be picked up on. It really does look like she, and others, are working from their worst case scenario hopes and trying to find a way it could happen.

Hopes? Beliefs, maybe; forecasts certainly; but surely not hopes.

Eeyore waves hello.

turbotubbs said:

DougSeal said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DougSeal said:

Sandpit said:

DougSeal said:

I really do think we need to keep more of an eye on this than people on here think...

Case numbers are pretty much now irrelevant. The important stat is numbers in hospital, which are remaining steady.

Hmmm...not looking that great either TBH in terms of trend...

Yes it is, that's pretty miniscule.

Plus people are presenting to hospitals with less severe illnesses that result in discharges quicker, rather than severe cases that end up on a ventilator.

On 30 April there were 1,153 patients in hospital.
On 31 May (latest data) there are 932 patients in hospital.

There's no upwards trend on patients in hospital.

In England beds occupied have gone up from 743 ten days ago to 860 today. That’s anything but flat.

Dashboard says 805...

860 is from the daily PHE data. The dashboard is updated weekly for beds occupied.

Anabobazina said:

Worth reading Chris Hopson, NHS Providers on this…

Ah @Anabobazina - I was a bit rude and grumpy last night. I hope you'll accept my apology.

Andy_JS said:

Sadiq Khan: "No reason not to open on 21st June".

https://twitter.com/MayorofLondon/status/1401974700398501894

I always feel like a need to take a shower after agreeing with Sadiq Khan or Tony Blair, but on this I think he's spot on.

Andy_Cooke said:

Sandpit said:

DougSeal said:

I really do think we need to keep more of an eye on this than people on here think...

Case numbers are pretty much now irrelevant. The important stat is numbers in hospital, which are remaining steady.

They’re up.

That cases surge looks to have started about 20 days ago. So hospitalisations should be about 10 days lagged.

10 days ago, we were at 743 in hospital in England; this morning we were at 860.
The increase is primarily in the NW and East of England, where the Delta outbreaks are worst.

Could all be random fluctuations, but it’s still not ideal and not what I’d call flat.

I'm not seeing the data you're seeing on the coronavirus.data.gov.uk website.

Most recent UK data is 3/6 which had 932 in hospital. 10 days before that was 24/5 which had 955 in hospital. If that's an increase, I'm not seeing it.

Same with patients on mechanical ventilation. In reverse order the data for England is: 119, 124, 116, 123, 110, 115, 112, 116, 110, 115, 117, 113, 111, 117, 115, 113, 114, 117, 116, 115, 115, 119, 123, 126

If there's an increase there, I'm not seeing it.

My plumber couldn't come out today because he's tested positive for Covid.

Not sure of his age, but he can't be more than 35 years old. I don't know if he was vaccinated (presume he's at least had one?) but he works in many house every day and, I suspect, goes drinking with the lads regularly too.

DougSeal said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DougSeal said:

Sandpit said:

DougSeal said:

I really do think we need to keep more of an eye on this than people on here think...

Case numbers are pretty much now irrelevant. The important stat is numbers in hospital, which are remaining steady.

Hmmm...not looking that great either TBH in terms of trend...

Yes it is, that's pretty miniscule.

Plus people are presenting to hospitals with less severe illnesses that result in discharges quicker, rather than severe cases that end up on a ventilator.

On 30 April there were 1,153 patients in hospital.
On 31 May (latest data) there are 932 patients in hospital.

There's no upwards trend on patients in hospital.

In England beds occupied have gone up from 743 ten days ago to over 800 today. That’s anything but flat.

805 in the most recent data. 11 days prior it was 797.

That's pretty flat. Its bounced around ~740 to ~800 on a daily basis since 16 May.

Casino_Royale said:

My plumber couldn't come out today because he's tested positive for Covid.

Not sure of his age, but he can't be more than 35 years old. I don't know if he was vaccinated (presume he's at least had one?) but he works in many house every day and, I suspect, goes drinking with the lads regularly too.

Let's be honest, the only time plumbers turn up on time is in porn.

Philip_Thompson said:

DougSeal said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DougSeal said:

Sandpit said:

DougSeal said:

I really do think we need to keep more of an eye on this than people on here think...

Case numbers are pretty much now irrelevant. The important stat is numbers in hospital, which are remaining steady.

Hmmm...not looking that great either TBH in terms of trend...

Yes it is, that's pretty miniscule.

Plus people are presenting to hospitals with less severe illnesses that result in discharges quicker, rather than severe cases that end up on a ventilator.

On 30 April there were 1,153 patients in hospital.
On 31 May (latest data) there are 932 patients in hospital.

There's no upwards trend on patients in hospital.

In England beds occupied have gone up from 743 ten days ago to over 800 today. That’s anything but flat.

805 in the most recent data. 11 days prior it was 797.

That's pretty flat. Its bounced around ~740 to ~800 on a daily basis since 16 May.

It’s 860. The daily PHE spreadsheet is at this link. The dashboard doesn’t update beds daily.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/06/COVID-19-daily-admissions-and-beds-20210607.xlsx

ydoethur said:

Andy_JS said:

Only a couple of years ago Naomi Wolf was regarded as a massive authority on lots of subjects. That was before she made a major error with one of her books, and then became an anti-vaxxer, leading to her being banned from Twitter.

I think the issue with Wolf is she was always a tendentious fool, but that’s become much more obvious recently due to her higher profile.

Just a gentle reminder that no-one in the normal world has a clue who she is. BTW who is she? Love Island? Megan Markle's personal trainer? Winner of The Apprentice? Does the weather on Channel 5? Nero Wolfe's big sister?

algarkirk said:

ydoethur said:

Andy_JS said:

Only a couple of years ago Naomi Wolf was regarded as a massive authority on lots of subjects. That was before she made a major error with one of her books, and then became an anti-vaxxer, leading to her being banned from Twitter.

I think the issue with Wolf is she was always a tendentious fool, but that’s become much more obvious recently due to her higher profile.

Just a gentle reminder that no-one in the normal world has a clue who she is. BTW who is she? Love Island? Megan Markle's personal trainer? Winner of The Apprentice? Does the weather on Channel 5? Nero Wolfe's big sister?

Something to do with the Bloomsbury Group, perhaps?

ydoethur said:

rpjs said:

Andy_JS said:

Only a couple of years ago Naomi Wolf was regarded as a massive authority on lots of subjects. That was before she made a major error with one of her books, and then became an anti-vaxxer, leading to her being banned from Twitter.

And wasn't that book a repackaging of her PhD thesis?

Yes.

Humanities PhDs are quite often repackaged as books, are they not? At least by those who would remain in academia.

Andy_Cooke said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Andy_Cooke said:

Sandpit said:

DougSeal said:

I really do think we need to keep more of an eye on this than people on here think...

Case numbers are pretty much now irrelevant. The important stat is numbers in hospital, which are remaining steady.

They’re up.

That cases surge looks to have started about 20 days ago. So hospitalisations should be about 10 days lagged.

10 days ago, we were at 743 in hospital in England; this morning we were at 860.
The increase is primarily in the NW and East of England, where the Delta outbreaks are worst.

Could all be random fluctuations, but it’s still not ideal and not what I’d call flat.

I'm not seeing the data you're seeing on the coronavirus.data.gov.uk website.

Most recent UK data is 3/6 which had 932 in hospital. 10 days before that was 24/5 which had 955 in hospital. If that's an increase, I'm not seeing it.

Same with patients on mechanical ventilation. In reverse order the data for England is: 119, 124, 116, 123, 110, 115, 112, 116, 110, 115, 117, 113, 111, 117, 115, 113, 114, 117, 116, 115, 115, 119, 123, 126

If there's an increase there, I'm not seeing it.

In reverse order from this morning, from the NHS England data; last 10 days:
Numbers in hospital - 860, 807, 782, 805, 779, 801, 776, 773, 755, 748
Number on mechanical ventilation - 133, 131, 124, 119, 124, 116, 123, 110, 115, 112

I don’t know how anyone can call that “flat”.

Looking at hospitalisations etc and trying to determine if they are rising is I think missing the point. The question is, even if they do begin to rise, how much of a concern is it? The doomsters insist the any rise must prompt extreme measures because by the time you realise you’ve a problem it’s too late. But the counter is that any rises should not be seen as concerning because they will hit an impenetrable wall. The argument is simply that these people spend far too much time drawing lessons from last year and looking at models, and not nearly enough time looking at real world experience of places like Bolton.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

My plumber couldn't come out today because he's tested positive for Covid.

Not sure of his age, but he can't be more than 35 years old. I don't know if he was vaccinated (presume he's at least had one?) but he works in many house every day and, I suspect, goes drinking with the lads regularly too.

Let's be honest, the only time plumbers turn up on time is in porn.

The step-moms are plumbers?

alex_ said:

Looking at hospitalisations etc and trying to determine if they are rising is I think missing the point. The question is, even if they do begin to rise, how much of a concern is it? The doomsters insist the any rise must prompt extreme measures because by the time you realise you’ve a problem it’s too late. But the counter is that any rises should not be seen as concerning because they will hit an impenetrable wall. The argument is simply that these people spend far too much time drawing lessons from last year and looking at models, and not nearly enough time looking at real world experience of places like Bolton.

I’ve said it before and will say again, pretty much every model I have seen excludes any vaccine effect. Which is… odd in the extreme.

Philip_Thompson said:

Andy_Cooke said:

Sandpit said:

DougSeal said:

I really do think we need to keep more of an eye on this than people on here think...

Case numbers are pretty much now irrelevant. The important stat is numbers in hospital, which are remaining steady.

They’re up.

That cases surge looks to have started about 20 days ago. So hospitalisations should be about 10 days lagged.

10 days ago, we were at 743 in hospital in England; this morning we were at 860.
The increase is primarily in the NW and East of England, where the Delta outbreaks are worst.

Could all be random fluctuations, but it’s still not ideal and not what I’d call flat.

I'm not seeing the data you're seeing on the coronavirus.data.gov.uk website.

Most recent UK data is 3/6 which had 932 in hospital. 10 days before that was 24/5 which had 955 in hospital. If that's an increase, I'm not seeing it.

Same with patients on mechanical ventilation. In reverse order the data for England is: 119, 124, 116, 123, 110, 115, 112, 116, 110, 115, 117, 113, 111, 117, 115, 113, 114, 117, 116, 115, 115, 119, 123, 126

If there's an increase there, I'm not seeing it.

I think there's a wavelet slowly rippling out from Bolton but which will likely grow ever weaker as vaccinations increase.

It will lead to hospitalisations increasing for a couple of weeks in each local area it hits followed by them falling (as is already happening in Bolton).

There's a smaller effect originating in Bedford.

Philip_Thompson said:

Andy_JS said:

"Another racist tweet posted by a current England player has emerged, hours after Ollie Robinson was suspended from international cricket while an investigation into offensive tweets he posted in 2012 and 2013 is conducted.

Wisden.com have chosen to obscure the identity of the player, who had yet to turn 16 at the time. The screenshotted post, with identifying details blanked out, is below."

https://wisden.com/stories/news-stories/another-racist-tweet-posted-by-current-england-player-emerges

Under 16?

Some people need to get a fucking grip and not be trawling through decades old Tweets by children looking for something to take offence to.

I'm all for BLM, taking a knee, anti-racism etc. But this sort of thing is just pathetic - and creepy too.

Apparently Root, Roy & Dom Bess have been deleting tweets, but might be nothing in it, and people just playing silly Billy’s

I notice that Pembrokeshire's figures has risen to 11 per 100,000. Could be a function of caravan and camping holiday makers.

Anabobazina said:

alex_ said:

Looking at hospitalisations etc and trying to determine if they are rising is I think missing the point. The question is, even if they do begin to rise, how much of a concern is it? The doomsters insist the any rise must prompt extreme measures because by the time you realise you’ve a problem it’s too late. But the counter is that any rises should not be seen as concerning because they will hit an impenetrable wall. The argument is simply that these people spend far too much time drawing lessons from last year and looking at models, and not nearly enough time looking at real world experience of places like Bolton.

I’ve said it before and will say again, pretty much every model I have seen excludes any vaccine effect. Which is… odd in the extreme.

Check out @JamesWard73 on Twitter. His certainly do.

Sadiq Khan is backing a full opening up on 21 June after speaking daily to health officials.

Interesting.

tlg86 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

Liftoff for the vaccine rocket under the economy.

Yeah, I've made a ton of savings because of WFH.

I feel morally obligated to spend that money to help the economy and the people who have struggled these last fifteen months.

#Altruistic

Freakonomics had a good episode recently about WFH...it could well be another driver of inequality, if you have a profession where you can WFH from basically anywhere, you can easily choose to live somewhere cheaper and save all the money on commuting etc, extending your advantage over others.

Where as if you are a bus driver in London, you can hardly move to more than a quite limited distance from the capital with all the costs that incurs.

Though, if London does become less desirable, that does benefit those that have to live there.

The interesting question is, what happens to London weighting? There have been whispers that the civil service might start cutting wages if people refuse to go to the office.

In a funny kind of way, we could end up with some people spending more time in the office. Pre-COVID there was a tendency for more senior members of staff to come and go as they pleased at my place. If we move to a more formal “you need to spend x number of hours at your desk”, some staff members will actually have to do more time in the office as it’ll have to apply to everyone.

Covid has made London more agreeable, in some ways. There are near-zero foreign tourists, so everywhere that is fun is less crowded. You can drive around the West End without a care (apart from the Congestion Charge)

And everyone everywhere is a Londoner. We reclaim our city, just for one summer. Camden Market is OURS.

It feels like the 1960s

DougSeal said:

Andy_Cooke said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Andy_Cooke said:

Sandpit said:

DougSeal said:

I really do think we need to keep more of an eye on this than people on here think...

Case numbers are pretty much now irrelevant. The important stat is numbers in hospital, which are remaining steady.

They’re up.

That cases surge looks to have started about 20 days ago. So hospitalisations should be about 10 days lagged.

10 days ago, we were at 743 in hospital in England; this morning we were at 860.
The increase is primarily in the NW and East of England, where the Delta outbreaks are worst.

Could all be random fluctuations, but it’s still not ideal and not what I’d call flat.

I'm not seeing the data you're seeing on the coronavirus.data.gov.uk website.

Most recent UK data is 3/6 which had 932 in hospital. 10 days before that was 24/5 which had 955 in hospital. If that's an increase, I'm not seeing it.

Same with patients on mechanical ventilation. In reverse order the data for England is: 119, 124, 116, 123, 110, 115, 112, 116, 110, 115, 117, 113, 111, 117, 115, 113, 114, 117, 116, 115, 115, 119, 123, 126

If there's an increase there, I'm not seeing it.

In reverse order from this morning, from the NHS England data; last 10 days:
Numbers in hospital - 860, 807, 782, 805, 779, 801, 776, 773, 755, 748
Number on mechanical ventilation - 133, 131, 124, 119, 124, 116, 123, 110, 115, 112

I don’t know how anyone can call that “flat”.

A couple of potential straws:

- The increase in numbers overall is primarily in the NW and East; and the increase in mechanical ventilation numbers is almost entirely there. Implying it’s primarily the Delta outbreaks (and a few of them are coming under control). Also implies that without Delta, we’d have been golden.
- The duration of time in hospital seems to be decreasing (number is now c. 7.5 days of admissions). Discharge rates seem to have started increasing first and have only recently been outweighed by the increasing admissions rates, which has bought us a week or two. Given the vaccination improvements, that makes some difference.

A 15.year olds tw@ters, that is some serious barrel scraping journalism.

Anabobazina said:

Sadiq Khan is backing a full opening up on 21 June after speaking daily to health officials.

Interesting.

Wow, unexpectedly positive from him but I suspect he's realised that London is fucked unless all of this is binned, especially permanent WFH. That's killing the city centre.

DougSeal

Ward himself says that if Hancock is right about 40% transmissibility advantage for Delta, we should go ahead on 21 June.

So he’s waiting for more data.

tlg86 said:

Taz said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Andy_JS said:

"Another racist tweet posted by a current England player has emerged, hours after Ollie Robinson was suspended from international cricket while an investigation into offensive tweets he posted in 2012 and 2013 is conducted.

Wisden.com have chosen to obscure the identity of the player, who had yet to turn 16 at the time. The screenshotted post, with identifying details blanked out, is below."

https://wisden.com/stories/news-stories/another-racist-tweet-posted-by-current-england-player-emerges

Under 16?

Some people need to get a fucking grip and not be trawling through decades old Tweets by children looking for something to take offence to.

I'm all for BLM, taking a knee, anti-racism etc. But this sort of thing is just pathetic - and creepy too.

No wonder some cricketers have been deleting their twitter accounts. Under 16, a school child.

There must be interns currrently scanning stars twitter feeds for anything they can throw at them.

Guido does this with politicians, but I think there is some value in that as it tends to reveal what these people are like.

I’m not fussed what a medium pace bowler said 9 years ago. I know it’s a cliche, but seam bowlers aren’t the sharpest tools in the box. Just look at the Sky commentary box. Michael Holding is the token fast bowler.

I am not sure what you say when you are 16, and trying to appear something you are not in front of your peers and a social environment which is often pretty toxic on many levels, tells anyone much about the person you are as a fully matured adult.

Andy_JS said:

"Another racist tweet posted by a current England player has emerged, hours after Ollie Robinson was suspended from international cricket while an investigation into offensive tweets he posted in 2012 and 2013 is conducted.

Wisden.com have chosen to obscure the identity of the player, who had yet to turn 16 at the time. The screenshotted post, with identifying details blanked out, is below."

https://wisden.com/stories/news-stories/another-racist-tweet-posted-by-current-england-player-emerges

What's the point of that? Now people will just hunt out which player it is - so Wisden might as well save people the effort.

Anabobazina said:

Sadiq Khan is backing a full opening up on 21 June after speaking daily to health officials.

Interesting.

He correctly realises that central London can't function properly unless more people start using the cafes, shops, trains, tube, etc.

TimT said:

tlg86 said:

Taz said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Andy_JS said:

"Another racist tweet posted by a current England player has emerged, hours after Ollie Robinson was suspended from international cricket while an investigation into offensive tweets he posted in 2012 and 2013 is conducted.

Wisden.com have chosen to obscure the identity of the player, who had yet to turn 16 at the time. The screenshotted post, with identifying details blanked out, is below."

https://wisden.com/stories/news-stories/another-racist-tweet-posted-by-current-england-player-emerges

Under 16?

Some people need to get a fucking grip and not be trawling through decades old Tweets by children looking for something to take offence to.

I'm all for BLM, taking a knee, anti-racism etc. But this sort of thing is just pathetic - and creepy too.

No wonder some cricketers have been deleting their twitter accounts. Under 16, a school child.

There must be interns currrently scanning stars twitter feeds for anything they can throw at them.

Guido does this with politicians, but I think there is some value in that as it tends to reveal what these people are like.

I’m not fussed what a medium pace bowler said 9 years ago. I know it’s a cliche, but seam bowlers aren’t the sharpest tools in the box. Just look at the Sky commentary box. Michael Holding is the token fast bowler.

I am not sure what you say when you are 16, and trying to appear something you are not in front of your peers and a social environment which is often pretty toxic on many levels, tells anyone much about the person you are as a fully matured adult.

Guido doesn’t tend to do it to 16 year olds!

Quite what age it becomes more telling, I’m not sure. Maybe 25? I guess that lets Sultana off the hook as I think she was 22 when she was posting nasty stuff.

DougSeal said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DougSeal said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DougSeal said:

Sandpit said:

DougSeal said:

I really do think we need to keep more of an eye on this than people on here think...

Case numbers are pretty much now irrelevant. The important stat is numbers in hospital, which are remaining steady.

Hmmm...not looking that great either TBH in terms of trend...

Yes it is, that's pretty miniscule.

Plus people are presenting to hospitals with less severe illnesses that result in discharges quicker, rather than severe cases that end up on a ventilator.

On 30 April there were 1,153 patients in hospital.
On 31 May (latest data) there are 932 patients in hospital.

There's no upwards trend on patients in hospital.

In England beds occupied have gone up from 743 ten days ago to over 800 today. That’s anything but flat.

805 in the most recent data. 11 days prior it was 797.

That's pretty flat. Its bounced around ~740 to ~800 on a daily basis since 16 May.

It’s 860. The daily PHE spreadsheet is at this link. The dashboard doesn’t update beds daily.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/06/COVID-19-daily-admissions-and-beds-20210607.xlsx

So there's a single day that's the exception to the rule and that's meant to cause us all to freak out?

A few issues with that. One is that we don't know whether that's due to vaccine refusers or due to vaccines not working. If the former then that doesn't change anything, the vaccine refusers could end up getting their antibodies one way or another, if they won't get it from vaccines then they risk getting it the hard way.

Secondly the data could be warped at the moment due to half-term and the bank holiday etc. There's a pattern in the data that it ebbs and flows peaking on Mondays then receding again, almost as if people would rather go to the hospital instead of work rather than losing their weekend. So if some people have postponed going to hospital during half-term that could see a short spike now then it recedes again - and counting from the trough of ~740 when it was ~800 two days earlier/later than when it was ~740 is not really logical.

tlg86 said:

TimT said:

tlg86 said:

Taz said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Andy_JS said:

"Another racist tweet posted by a current England player has emerged, hours after Ollie Robinson was suspended from international cricket while an investigation into offensive tweets he posted in 2012 and 2013 is conducted.

Wisden.com have chosen to obscure the identity of the player, who had yet to turn 16 at the time. The screenshotted post, with identifying details blanked out, is below."

https://wisden.com/stories/news-stories/another-racist-tweet-posted-by-current-england-player-emerges

Under 16?

Some people need to get a fucking grip and not be trawling through decades old Tweets by children looking for something to take offence to.

I'm all for BLM, taking a knee, anti-racism etc. But this sort of thing is just pathetic - and creepy too.

No wonder some cricketers have been deleting their twitter accounts. Under 16, a school child.

There must be interns currrently scanning stars twitter feeds for anything they can throw at them.

Guido does this with politicians, but I think there is some value in that as it tends to reveal what these people are like.

I’m not fussed what a medium pace bowler said 9 years ago. I know it’s a cliche, but seam bowlers aren’t the sharpest tools in the box. Just look at the Sky commentary box. Michael Holding is the token fast bowler.

I am not sure what you say when you are 16, and trying to appear something you are not in front of your peers and a social environment which is often pretty toxic on many levels, tells anyone much about the person you are as a fully matured adult.

Guido doesn’t tend to do it to 16 year olds!

Quite what age it becomes more telling, I’m not sure. Maybe 25? I guess that lets Sultana off the hook as I think she was 22 when she was posting nasty stuff.

He normally has a lot more than a single tweet...the ones he goes for normally have a body of work so to say.

tlg86 said:

Taz said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Andy_JS said:

"Another racist tweet posted by a current England player has emerged, hours after Ollie Robinson was suspended from international cricket while an investigation into offensive tweets he posted in 2012 and 2013 is conducted.

Wisden.com have chosen to obscure the identity of the player, who had yet to turn 16 at the time. The screenshotted post, with identifying details blanked out, is below."

https://wisden.com/stories/news-stories/another-racist-tweet-posted-by-current-england-player-emerges

Under 16?

Some people need to get a fucking grip and not be trawling through decades old Tweets by children looking for something to take offence to.

I'm all for BLM, taking a knee, anti-racism etc. But this sort of thing is just pathetic - and creepy too.

No wonder some cricketers have been deleting their twitter accounts. Under 16, a school child.

There must be interns currrently scanning stars twitter feeds for anything they can throw at them.

Guido does this with politicians, but I think there is some value in that as it tends to reveal what these people are like.

I’m not fussed what a medium pace bowler said 9 years ago. I know it’s a cliche, but seam bowlers aren’t the sharpest tools in the box. Just look at the Sky commentary box. Michael Holding is the token fast bowler.

Bob Willis was always such a jolly chap on comms.

kle4 said:

tlg86 said:

TimT said:

tlg86 said:

Taz said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Andy_JS said:

"Another racist tweet posted by a current England player has emerged, hours after Ollie Robinson was suspended from international cricket while an investigation into offensive tweets he posted in 2012 and 2013 is conducted.

Wisden.com have chosen to obscure the identity of the player, who had yet to turn 16 at the time. The screenshotted post, with identifying details blanked out, is below."

https://wisden.com/stories/news-stories/another-racist-tweet-posted-by-current-england-player-emerges

Under 16?

Some people need to get a fucking grip and not be trawling through decades old Tweets by children looking for something to take offence to.

I'm all for BLM, taking a knee, anti-racism etc. But this sort of thing is just pathetic - and creepy too.

No wonder some cricketers have been deleting their twitter accounts. Under 16, a school child.

There must be interns currrently scanning stars twitter feeds for anything they can throw at them.

Guido does this with politicians, but I think there is some value in that as it tends to reveal what these people are like.

I’m not fussed what a medium pace bowler said 9 years ago. I know it’s a cliche, but seam bowlers aren’t the sharpest tools in the box. Just look at the Sky commentary box. Michael Holding is the token fast bowler.

I am not sure what you say when you are 16, and trying to appear something you are not in front of your peers and a social environment which is often pretty toxic on many levels, tells anyone much about the person you are as a fully matured adult.

Guido doesn’t tend to do it to 16 year olds!

Quite what age it becomes more telling, I’m not sure. Maybe 25? I guess that lets Sultana off the hook as I think she was 22 when she was posting nasty stuff.

Once you are an adult things will naturally take on a different level of seriousness, but I'd have thought the key would have been whether it is reflected by actions and words since then.

That's what is silly about the Robinson punishment, as there was some talk about him needing to essentially go away and think about who he is and so on, but unless stuff emerges in the intervening period from when he was 18 and now, he doesn't have anything to think on, as he's already apologised. If they turn up a bunch more stuff, sure, that puts a different spin on it, but he won't learn anything from a suspension based on the old stuff, as he's already learned a lesson in that he doesn't tweet stuff like that anymore.

If I was Robinson I would be extremely pissed off with the ECB...he did everything they asked of him, did an apology like he was some hostage, and then he comes out and top performance and rather than shake his hand they say watch out for that bus, what bus, arrhhhhh as he is pushed under it.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

My plumber couldn't come out today because he's tested positive for Covid.

Not sure of his age, but he can't be more than 35 years old. I don't know if he was vaccinated (presume he's at least had one?) but he works in many house every day and, I suspect, goes drinking with the lads regularly too.

Let's be honest, the only time plumbers turn up on time is in porn.

Never come early though..

DougSeal said:

BluestBlue said:

Anabobazina said:

Sadiq Khan is backing a full opening up on 21 June after speaking daily to health officials.

Interesting.

Given his submariner tendencies, that must mean either that he knows it's on and wants to grab a little credit for when it happens, or he knows it's off and wants to deflect blame if London gets locked down because of Blackburn...

Why would he have to deflect blame in the latter case?

In the sense of being able to say 'Look, I was on the record arguing that we should open up on time but the Government went against me on this because of cases in other parts of the country'. He's been alternating between pro- and anti-lockdown throughout, so he’ll want to get his positioning right this time.

So I'm not sure if Sadiq’s intervention is good or bad news; but at least he’s correct this time, in my view.

kle4 said:

tlg86 said:

TimT said:

tlg86 said:

Taz said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Andy_JS said:

"Another racist tweet posted by a current England player has emerged, hours after Ollie Robinson was suspended from international cricket while an investigation into offensive tweets he posted in 2012 and 2013 is conducted.

Wisden.com have chosen to obscure the identity of the player, who had yet to turn 16 at the time. The screenshotted post, with identifying details blanked out, is below."

https://wisden.com/stories/news-stories/another-racist-tweet-posted-by-current-england-player-emerges

Under 16?

Some people need to get a fucking grip and not be trawling through decades old Tweets by children looking for something to take offence to.

I'm all for BLM, taking a knee, anti-racism etc. But this sort of thing is just pathetic - and creepy too.

No wonder some cricketers have been deleting their twitter accounts. Under 16, a school child.

There must be interns currrently scanning stars twitter feeds for anything they can throw at them.

Guido does this with politicians, but I think there is some value in that as it tends to reveal what these people are like.

I’m not fussed what a medium pace bowler said 9 years ago. I know it’s a cliche, but seam bowlers aren’t the sharpest tools in the box. Just look at the Sky commentary box. Michael Holding is the token fast bowler.

I am not sure what you say when you are 16, and trying to appear something you are not in front of your peers and a social environment which is often pretty toxic on many levels, tells anyone much about the person you are as a fully matured adult.

Guido doesn’t tend to do it to 16 year olds!

Quite what age it becomes more telling, I’m not sure. Maybe 25? I guess that lets Sultana off the hook as I think she was 22 when she was posting nasty stuff.

Once you are an adult things will naturally take on a different level of seriousness, but I'd have thought the key would have been whether it is reflected by actions and words since then.

That's what is silly about the Robinson punishment, as there was some talk about him needing to essentially go away and think about who he is and so on, but unless stuff emerges in the intervening period from when he was 18 and now, he doesn't have anything to think on, as he's already apologised. If they turn up a bunch more stuff, sure, that puts a different spin on it, but he won't learn anything from a suspension based on the old stuff, as he's already learned a lesson in that he doesn't tweet stuff like that anymore.

Completely crazy to ban him at all. The worlds gone mad

It wasn't that long ago that some England players allegedly ran a twitter account that constantly abused their own team mate, KP.

AlwaysSinging said:

Foxy said:

Stocky said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

Liftoff for the vaccine rocket under the economy.

Yeah, I've made a ton of savings because of WFH.

I feel morally obligated to spend that money to help the economy and the people who have struggled these last fifteen months.

#Altruistic

The Northampton shoe industry will have to expand to cope.

I don't need to buy any more footwear for the rest of the year.

I'm all stocked up.

It is Turnbull & Asser and the bespoke tailors of Savile Row that will see the majority of my clothing & footwear spending.

I've developed a thing for buying excess clothes over lockdown too. Particularly linen shirts for some reason. I've picked up some good gear at tasty prices.

Work clothes such as suits are a real bargain at the moment. Not that I am buying, as it looks like scrubs for a while yet. NHS England has told us at the weekend that the June 21st relaxation doesn't apply to health care settings.

Any recommendations for where to buy a decent suit, @Foxy? I seem to need to upgrade my size a little (I blame lockdown) and I've found it very hard to replace my Austin Reed suits with anything of comparable quality.

--AS

You've just opened up a can of worms mate.

kle4 said:

tlg86 said:

TimT said:

tlg86 said:

Taz said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Andy_JS said:

"Another racist tweet posted by a current England player has emerged, hours after Ollie Robinson was suspended from international cricket while an investigation into offensive tweets he posted in 2012 and 2013 is conducted.

Wisden.com have chosen to obscure the identity of the player, who had yet to turn 16 at the time. The screenshotted post, with identifying details blanked out, is below."

https://wisden.com/stories/news-stories/another-racist-tweet-posted-by-current-england-player-emerges

Under 16?

Some people need to get a fucking grip and not be trawling through decades old Tweets by children looking for something to take offence to.

I'm all for BLM, taking a knee, anti-racism etc. But this sort of thing is just pathetic - and creepy too.

No wonder some cricketers have been deleting their twitter accounts. Under 16, a school child.

There must be interns currrently scanning stars twitter feeds for anything they can throw at them.

Guido does this with politicians, but I think there is some value in that as it tends to reveal what these people are like.

I’m not fussed what a medium pace bowler said 9 years ago. I know it’s a cliche, but seam bowlers aren’t the sharpest tools in the box. Just look at the Sky commentary box. Michael Holding is the token fast bowler.

I am not sure what you say when you are 16, and trying to appear something you are not in front of your peers and a social environment which is often pretty toxic on many levels, tells anyone much about the person you are as a fully matured adult.

Guido doesn’t tend to do it to 16 year olds!

Quite what age it becomes more telling, I’m not sure. Maybe 25? I guess that lets Sultana off the hook as I think she was 22 when she was posting nasty stuff.

Once you are an adult things will naturally take on a different level of seriousness, but I'd have thought the key would have been whether it is reflected by actions and words since then.

That's what is silly about the Robinson punishment, as there was some talk about him needing to essentially go away and think about who he is and so on, but unless stuff emerges in the intervening period from when he was 18 and now, he doesn't have anything to think on, as he's already apologised. If they turn up a bunch more stuff, sure, that puts a different spin on it, but he won't learn anything from a suspension based on the old stuff, as he's already learned a lesson in that he doesn't tweet stuff like that anymore.

kle4 said:

tlg86 said:

TimT said:

tlg86 said:

Taz said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Andy_JS said:

"Another racist tweet posted by a current England player has emerged, hours after Ollie Robinson was suspended from international cricket while an investigation into offensive tweets he posted in 2012 and 2013 is conducted.

Wisden.com have chosen to obscure the identity of the player, who had yet to turn 16 at the time. The screenshotted post, with identifying details blanked out, is below."

https://wisden.com/stories/news-stories/another-racist-tweet-posted-by-current-england-player-emerges

Under 16?

Some people need to get a fucking grip and not be trawling through decades old Tweets by children looking for something to take offence to.

I'm all for BLM, taking a knee, anti-racism etc. But this sort of thing is just pathetic - and creepy too.

No wonder some cricketers have been deleting their twitter accounts. Under 16, a school child.

There must be interns currrently scanning stars twitter feeds for anything they can throw at them.

Guido does this with politicians, but I think there is some value in that as it tends to reveal what these people are like.

I’m not fussed what a medium pace bowler said 9 years ago. I know it’s a cliche, but seam bowlers aren’t the sharpest tools in the box. Just look at the Sky commentary box. Michael Holding is the token fast bowler.

I am not sure what you say when you are 16, and trying to appear something you are not in front of your peers and a social environment which is often pretty toxic on many levels, tells anyone much about the person you are as a fully matured adult.

Guido doesn’t tend to do it to 16 year olds!

Quite what age it becomes more telling, I’m not sure. Maybe 25? I guess that lets Sultana off the hook as I think she was 22 when she was posting nasty stuff.

Once you are an adult things will naturally take on a different level of seriousness, but I'd have thought the key would have been whether it is reflected by actions and words since then.

That's what is silly about the Robinson punishment, as there was some talk about him needing to essentially go away and think about who he is and so on, but unless stuff emerges in the intervening period from when he was 18 and now, he doesn't have anything to think on, as he's already apologised. If they turn up a bunch more stuff, sure, that puts a different spin on it, but he won't learn anything from a suspension based on the old stuff, as he's already learned a lesson in that he doesn't tweet stuff like that anymore.

Which point surely applies to Ross Peltier, the ex-Green candidate in B+S, too.
Some stuff said many years ago. None AFAIAA in recent years. And he's only 29 now.
I fear this what was once said Online will hang over this generation in the way having been spliff keen hung over mine. But with far more hard evidence.
Until, eventually, a truce is called., because it affects a critical mass in senior positions.

TheScreamingEagles said:

DougSeal said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DougSeal said:

@BealeLab

“ Recent case data indeed not looking good, it would be folly to open up on 21 June. Were it not for variant delta (first detected in India), there would be no problem in fully opening domestic economy. Wouldn’t even be a serious debate. But here we are… again…”

There’s. No. Way. 21. June. Will. Happen.

June 21st will happen.

In the most literal sense of the date following the 20th, yes it will happen, but there cannot be any chance now of a full reopening of the economy,

My work has a scheduled return to the office for the 5th of July, we've modified that to say only people who have been double jabbed will return to the office, everyone else has to wait until 10 days after their second jab.

I suspect the government will operate on those lines.

So antivaxxers get to WFH? Jammy buggers.