I really do think we need to keep more of an eye on this than people on here think...
Case numbers are pretty much now irrelevant. The important stat is numbers in hospital, which are remaining steady.
Hmmm...not looking that great either TBH in terms of trend...
Yes it is, that's pretty miniscule.
Plus people are presenting to hospitals with less severe illnesses that result in discharges quicker, rather than severe cases that end up on a ventilator.
On 30 April there were 1,153 patients in hospital. On 31 May (latest data) there are 932 patients in hospital.
I feel morally obligated to spend that money to help the economy and the people who have struggled these last fifteen months.
#Altruistic
Freakonomics had a good episode recently about WFH...it could well be another driver of inequality, if you have a profession where you can WFH from basically anywhere, you can easily choose to live somewhere cheaper and save all the money on commuting etc, extending your advantage over others.
Where as if you are a bus driver in London, you can hardly move to more than a quite limited distance from the capital with all the costs that incurs.
With the new flexible season tickets this is something that will get worse.
I'm fortunate that I work for a great employer, last March they spared no expense so we could all comfortably work from home, from paying for desks and chairs, and improved broadband/internet connections.
One colleague he and his wife who also worked from home, plus two teenage kids had to share a 37 Mbps internet connection.
Work paid for them to have a second internet connection as well mobile broadband coverage.
Flexible season tickets is a contradiction in terms! The whole point of a season ticket is that you can use it as much as you like in a given time period. That’s the definition of flexible!
What people want is the day rate to be the same as the annual rate. What will happen is that there will end up being a single rate (that will look suspiciously like the day rate) and you simply pay for one journey at a time with the option of loading journeys on to a smart card.
TPE and EMR are offering me a flexi season ticket that allows me 8 days of travel in 28 days.
It is brilliant and looks very reasonably priced.
I guess if the industry feels it needs to attract customers then we could see a genuine fall in prices. But that will have to be paid for (hello Mr Sunak) and I don’t think it’s great for the case for HS2.
Another dilemma is, how do we cope with everyone wanting to go into the office Tue-Thu. Cheaper rates on Fri-Mon?
“ Recent case data indeed not looking good, it would be folly to open up on 21 June. Were it not for variant delta (first detected in India), there would be no problem in fully opening domestic economy. Wouldn’t even be a serious debate. But here we are… again…”
There’s. No. Way. 21. June. Will. Happen.
June 21st will happen.
In the most literal sense of the date following the 20th, yes it will happen, but there cannot be any chance now of a full reopening of the economy,
Calm down Chicken Licken, there's every reason it should.
I really do think we need to keep more of an eye on this than people on here think...
Case numbers are pretty much now irrelevant. The important stat is numbers in hospital, which are remaining steady.
Hmmm...not looking that great either TBH in terms of trend...
Yes it is, that's pretty miniscule.
Plus people are presenting to hospitals with less severe illnesses that result in discharges quicker, rather than severe cases that end up on a ventilator.
On 30 April there were 1,153 patients in hospital. On 31 May (latest data) there are 932 patients in hospital.
There's no upwards trend on patients in hospital.
Lagging indicator. The recent rises haven’t fully fed through yet.
I really do think we need to keep more of an eye on this than people on here think...
Case numbers are pretty much now irrelevant. The important stat is numbers in hospital, which are remaining steady.
Hmmm...not looking that great either TBH in terms of trend...
Yes it is, that's pretty miniscule.
Plus people are presenting to hospitals with less severe illnesses that result in discharges quicker, rather than severe cases that end up on a ventilator.
On 30 April there were 1,153 patients in hospital. On 31 May (latest data) there are 932 patients in hospital.
I really do think we need to keep more of an eye on this than people on here think...
Case numbers are pretty much now irrelevant. The important stat is numbers in hospital, which are remaining steady.
They’re up.
That cases surge looks to have started about 20 days ago. So hospitalisations should be about 10 days lagged.
10 days ago, we were at 743 in hospital in England; this morning we were at 860. The increase is primarily in the NW and East of England, where the Delta outbreaks are worst.
Could all be random fluctuations, but it’s still not ideal and not what I’d call flat.
“ Recent case data indeed not looking good, it would be folly to open up on 21 June. Were it not for variant delta (first detected in India), there would be no problem in fully opening domestic economy. Wouldn’t even be a serious debate. But here we are… again…”
There’s. No. Way. 21. June. Will. Happen.
You seem extremely confident, based on his assessment. As far as I can see, positive tests aren’t translating into hospitalisations. There will be an uptick in the latter, but given they are currently at a statistical zero (fewer people in hospital with covid than there are hospitals!) we can tolerate a lot more.
I feel morally obligated to spend that money to help the economy and the people who have struggled these last fifteen months.
#Altruistic
The Northampton shoe industry will have to expand to cope.
I don't need to buy any more footwear for the rest of the year.
I'm all stocked up.
It is Turnbull & Asser and the bespoke tailors of Savile Row that will see the majority of my clothing & footwear spending.
I've developed a thing for buying excess clothes over lockdown too. Particularly linen shirts for some reason. I've picked up some good gear at tasty prices.
Some fine silk cravats at Turnbull & Asser. D'you know any mutual acquaintances who you think might be interested in one?
It sorts of feels like the next 12-18 months will be ok, but not the next 3-5 years.
It might explain why Boris wants a slightly early election.
I actually think the UK economy is going to recover very strongly in the next 6 months and then grow very strongly over the next few years. People want a safe country to park their money and the UK is going to be a very strong choice as it sits outside of the ECJ and as that money filters through to the real economy we'll see a pretty big economic boost and boost in actual incomes.
Rich foreigners parking their money here causes house price inflation. It is unlikely much money trickles down to the real economy.
Only a couple of years ago Naomi Wolf was regarded as a massive authority on lots of subjects. That was before she made a major error with one of her books, and then became an anti-vaxxer, leading to her being banned from Twitter.
And wasn't that book a repackaging of her PhD thesis?
I really do think we need to keep more of an eye on this than people on here think...
Case numbers are pretty much now irrelevant. The important stat is numbers in hospital, which are remaining steady.
They’re up.
That cases surge looks to have started about 20 days ago. So hospitalisations should be about 10 days lagged.
10 days ago, we were at 743 in hospital in England; this morning we were at 860. The increase is primarily in the NW and East of England, where the Delta outbreaks are worst.
Could all be random fluctuations, but it’s still not ideal and not what I’d call flat.
Dashboard says 805, where does 860 come from? In the sw we have 13 in hospital in the entire region, with 1 admission and 1 on ventilation.
I really do think we need to keep more of an eye on this than people on here think...
Case numbers are pretty much now irrelevant. The important stat is numbers in hospital, which are remaining steady.
Hmmm...not looking that great either TBH in terms of trend...
Yes it is, that's pretty miniscule.
Plus people are presenting to hospitals with less severe illnesses that result in discharges quicker, rather than severe cases that end up on a ventilator.
On 30 April there were 1,153 patients in hospital. On 31 May (latest data) there are 932 patients in hospital.
There's no upwards trend on patients in hospital.
In England beds occupied have gone up from 743 ten days ago to over 800 today. That’s anything but flat.
“ Recent case data indeed not looking good, it would be folly to open up on 21 June. Were it not for variant delta (first detected in India), there would be no problem in fully opening domestic economy. Wouldn’t even be a serious debate. But here we are… again…”
There’s. No. Way. 21. June. Will. Happen.
June 21st will happen.
In the most literal sense of the date following the 20th, yes it will happen, but there cannot be any chance now of a full reopening of the economy,
My work has a scheduled return to the office for the 5th of July, we've modified that to say only people who have been double jabbed will return to the office, everyone else has to wait until 10 days after their second jab.
I suspect the government will operate on those lines.
I really do think we need to keep more of an eye on this than people on here think...
Case numbers are pretty much now irrelevant. The important stat is numbers in hospital, which are remaining steady.
Hmmm...not looking that great either TBH in terms of trend...
Yes it is, that's pretty miniscule.
Plus people are presenting to hospitals with less severe illnesses that result in discharges quicker, rather than severe cases that end up on a ventilator.
On 30 April there were 1,153 patients in hospital. On 31 May (latest data) there are 932 patients in hospital.
There's no upwards trend on patients in hospital.
In England beds occupied have gone up from 743 ten days ago to 860 today. That’s anything but flat.
In the past month the share of adult population to have received at least one dose of vaccine have gone from 66.6% to 76.8% That means there's 30% fewer unvaccinated adults now than there were a month ago.
In the past month the share of adult population to have received two doses of vaccine have gone from 31.8% to 53% That means there's 31% fewer adults without two doses now than there were a month ago.
Considering that vaccinations are being prioritised based upon need there's frankly ever fewer and fewer people left to be infected, even if cases increase.
Some significant local variations, Philip.
In Newham, 120,000 adults (48%) over the age of 30 have yet to receive a first vaccination. That's not an insignificant number and while, to now, the Borough has managed to dodge most of the infection surges, I can't believe our "luck" will last forever.
What is stopping them being vaccinated??
Stupidity.
No, every time they try and get a vaccination, a hypersonic UFO gets in the way....
Is that Jezza's excuse?
Well, if its a choice between
1) They chose not to and are responsible as moral agents 2) It was aliens
Which do you think he would chose?
Jews.
All of them?
Eh?
I'm saying that's what Jezza would choose. Without it even being an option, that's what he'd choose.
To stray off topic... Cristina Pagel in the guardian is now putting her hopes on the vaccination protection falling incredibly quickly in older people, specifically suggesting that for the most vulnerable it’s now at least three months since their last jab. I think this is terrible science. Reinfection after previous bought of Covid has been negligible, and there is every reason to think that vaccination will give as good, if not better protection. I think her belief is once more based on antibody titres falling, and neglecting that this is not the whole immune system. If this being peer review rather than paid by the guardian, it would be picked up on. It really does look like she, and others, are working from their worst case scenario hopes and trying to find a way it could happen.
Hopes? Beliefs, maybe; forecasts certainly; but surely not hopes.
To stray off topic... Cristina Pagel in the guardian is now putting her hopes on the vaccination protection falling incredibly quickly in older people, specifically suggesting that for the most vulnerable it’s now at least three months since their last jab. I think this is terrible science. Reinfection after previous bought of Covid has been negligible, and there is every reason to think that vaccination will give as good, if not better protection. I think her belief is once more based on antibody titres falling, and neglecting that this is not the whole immune system. If this being peer review rather than paid by the guardian, it would be picked up on. It really does look like she, and others, are working from their worst case scenario hopes and trying to find a way it could happen.
Hopes? Beliefs, maybe; forecasts certainly; but surely not hopes.
To stray off topic... Cristina Pagel in the guardian is now putting her hopes on the vaccination protection falling incredibly quickly in older people, specifically suggesting that for the most vulnerable it’s now at least three months since their last jab. I think this is terrible science. Reinfection after previous bought of Covid has been negligible, and there is every reason to think that vaccination will give as good, if not better protection. I think her belief is once more based on antibody titres falling, and neglecting that this is not the whole immune system. If this being peer review rather than paid by the guardian, it would be picked up on. It really does look like she, and others, are working from their worst case scenario hopes and trying to find a way it could happen.
Hopes? Beliefs, maybe; forecasts certainly; but surely not hopes.
I don’t know, the way it comes across is hopes. You are probably correct though.
I really do think we need to keep more of an eye on this than people on here think...
Case numbers are pretty much now irrelevant. The important stat is numbers in hospital, which are remaining steady.
Hmmm...not looking that great either TBH in terms of trend...
Yes it is, that's pretty miniscule.
Plus people are presenting to hospitals with less severe illnesses that result in discharges quicker, rather than severe cases that end up on a ventilator.
On 30 April there were 1,153 patients in hospital. On 31 May (latest data) there are 932 patients in hospital.
There's no upwards trend on patients in hospital.
In England beds occupied have gone up from 743 ten days ago to 860 today. That’s anything but flat.
Dashboard says 805...
860 is from the daily PHE data. The dashboard is updated weekly for beds occupied.
I really do think we need to keep more of an eye on this than people on here think...
Case numbers are pretty much now irrelevant. The important stat is numbers in hospital, which are remaining steady.
Hmmm...not looking that great either TBH in terms of trend...
Yes it is, that's pretty miniscule.
Plus people are presenting to hospitals with less severe illnesses that result in discharges quicker, rather than severe cases that end up on a ventilator.
On 30 April there were 1,153 patients in hospital. On 31 May (latest data) there are 932 patients in hospital.
There's no upwards trend on patients in hospital.
In England beds occupied have gone up from 743 ten days ago to over 800 today. That’s anything but flat.
I really do think we need to keep more of an eye on this than people on here think...
Case numbers are pretty much now irrelevant. The important stat is numbers in hospital, which are remaining steady.
Hmmm...not looking that great either TBH in terms of trend...
Yes it is, that's pretty miniscule.
Plus people are presenting to hospitals with less severe illnesses that result in discharges quicker, rather than severe cases that end up on a ventilator.
On 30 April there were 1,153 patients in hospital. On 31 May (latest data) there are 932 patients in hospital.
There's no upwards trend on patients in hospital.
In England beds occupied have gone up from 743 ten days ago to 860 today. That’s anything but flat.
Dashboard says 805...
860 is from the daily PHE data. The dashboard is updated weekly for beds occupied.
I really do think we need to keep more of an eye on this than people on here think...
Case numbers are pretty much now irrelevant. The important stat is numbers in hospital, which are remaining steady.
They’re up.
That cases surge looks to have started about 20 days ago. So hospitalisations should be about 10 days lagged.
10 days ago, we were at 743 in hospital in England; this morning we were at 860. The increase is primarily in the NW and East of England, where the Delta outbreaks are worst.
Could all be random fluctuations, but it’s still not ideal and not what I’d call flat.
I'm not seeing the data you're seeing on the coronavirus.data.gov.uk website.
Most recent UK data is 3/6 which had 932 in hospital. 10 days before that was 24/5 which had 955 in hospital. If that's an increase, I'm not seeing it.
Same with patients on mechanical ventilation. In reverse order the data for England is: 119, 124, 116, 123, 110, 115, 112, 116, 110, 115, 117, 113, 111, 117, 115, 113, 114, 117, 116, 115, 115, 119, 123, 126
I really do think we need to keep more of an eye on this than people on here think...
Case numbers are pretty much now irrelevant. The important stat is numbers in hospital, which are remaining steady.
They’re up.
That cases surge looks to have started about 20 days ago. So hospitalisations should be about 10 days lagged.
10 days ago, we were at 743 in hospital in England; this morning we were at 860. The increase is primarily in the NW and East of England, where the Delta outbreaks are worst.
Could all be random fluctuations, but it’s still not ideal and not what I’d call flat.
Dashboard says 805, where does 860 come from? In the sw we have 13 in hospital in the entire region, with 1 admission and 1 on ventilation.
My plumber couldn't come out today because he's tested positive for Covid.
Not sure of his age, but he can't be more than 35 years old. I don't know if he was vaccinated (presume he's at least had one?) but he works in many house every day and, I suspect, goes drinking with the lads regularly too.
Worth reading Chris Hopson, NHS Providers on this…
Ah @Anabobazina - I was a bit rude and grumpy last night. I hope you'll accept my apology.
No problem, and no apology required. I was also grumpy. It wasn’t a personal comment - I just find the general obsession with what the royals say and do bizarre!
I really do think we need to keep more of an eye on this than people on here think...
Case numbers are pretty much now irrelevant. The important stat is numbers in hospital, which are remaining steady.
Hmmm...not looking that great either TBH in terms of trend...
Yes it is, that's pretty miniscule.
Plus people are presenting to hospitals with less severe illnesses that result in discharges quicker, rather than severe cases that end up on a ventilator.
On 30 April there were 1,153 patients in hospital. On 31 May (latest data) there are 932 patients in hospital.
There's no upwards trend on patients in hospital.
In England beds occupied have gone up from 743 ten days ago to over 800 today. That’s anything but flat.
805 in the most recent data. 11 days prior it was 797.
That's pretty flat. Its bounced around ~740 to ~800 on a daily basis since 16 May.
My plumber couldn't come out today because he's tested positive for Covid.
Not sure of his age, but he can't be more than 35 years old. I don't know if he was vaccinated (presume he's at least had one?) but he works in many house every day and, I suspect, goes drinking with the lads regularly too.
Let's be honest, the only time plumbers turn up on time is in porn.
"Another racist tweet posted by a current England player has emerged, hours after Ollie Robinson was suspended from international cricket while an investigation into offensive tweets he posted in 2012 and 2013 is conducted.
Wisden.com have chosen to obscure the identity of the player, who had yet to turn 16 at the time. The screenshotted post, with identifying details blanked out, is below."
I really do think we need to keep more of an eye on this than people on here think...
Case numbers are pretty much now irrelevant. The important stat is numbers in hospital, which are remaining steady.
Hmmm...not looking that great either TBH in terms of trend...
Yes it is, that's pretty miniscule.
Plus people are presenting to hospitals with less severe illnesses that result in discharges quicker, rather than severe cases that end up on a ventilator.
On 30 April there were 1,153 patients in hospital. On 31 May (latest data) there are 932 patients in hospital.
There's no upwards trend on patients in hospital.
In England beds occupied have gone up from 743 ten days ago to over 800 today. That’s anything but flat.
805 in the most recent data. 11 days prior it was 797.
That's pretty flat. Its bounced around ~740 to ~800 on a daily basis since 16 May.
It’s 860. The daily PHE spreadsheet is at this link. The dashboard doesn’t update beds daily.
I really do think we need to keep more of an eye on this than people on here think...
Case numbers are pretty much now irrelevant. The important stat is numbers in hospital, which are remaining steady.
They’re up.
That cases surge looks to have started about 20 days ago. So hospitalisations should be about 10 days lagged.
10 days ago, we were at 743 in hospital in England; this morning we were at 860. The increase is primarily in the NW and East of England, where the Delta outbreaks are worst.
Could all be random fluctuations, but it’s still not ideal and not what I’d call flat.
I'm not seeing the data you're seeing on the coronavirus.data.gov.uk website.
Most recent UK data is 3/6 which had 932 in hospital. 10 days before that was 24/5 which had 955 in hospital. If that's an increase, I'm not seeing it.
Same with patients on mechanical ventilation. In reverse order the data for England is: 119, 124, 116, 123, 110, 115, 112, 116, 110, 115, 117, 113, 111, 117, 115, 113, 114, 117, 116, 115, 115, 119, 123, 126
If there's an increase there, I'm not seeing it.
In reverse order from this morning, from the NHS England data; last 10 days: Numbers in hospital - 860, 807, 782, 805, 779, 801, 776, 773, 755, 748 Number on mechanical ventilation - 133, 131, 124, 119, 124, 116, 123, 110, 115, 112
Only a couple of years ago Naomi Wolf was regarded as a massive authority on lots of subjects. That was before she made a major error with one of her books, and then became an anti-vaxxer, leading to her being banned from Twitter.
I think the issue with Wolf is she was always a tendentious fool, but that’s become much more obvious recently due to her higher profile.
Just a gentle reminder that no-one in the normal world has a clue who she is. BTW who is she? Love Island? Megan Markle's personal trainer? Winner of The Apprentice? Does the weather on Channel 5? Nero Wolfe's big sister?
"Another racist tweet posted by a current England player has emerged, hours after Ollie Robinson was suspended from international cricket while an investigation into offensive tweets he posted in 2012 and 2013 is conducted.
Wisden.com have chosen to obscure the identity of the player, who had yet to turn 16 at the time. The screenshotted post, with identifying details blanked out, is below."
Only a couple of years ago Naomi Wolf was regarded as a massive authority on lots of subjects. That was before she made a major error with one of her books, and then became an anti-vaxxer, leading to her being banned from Twitter.
I think the issue with Wolf is she was always a tendentious fool, but that’s become much more obvious recently due to her higher profile.
Just a gentle reminder that no-one in the normal world has a clue who she is. BTW who is she? Love Island? Megan Markle's personal trainer? Winner of The Apprentice? Does the weather on Channel 5? Nero Wolfe's big sister?
Something to do with the Bloomsbury Group, perhaps?
My plumber couldn't come out today because he's tested positive for Covid.
Not sure of his age, but he can't be more than 35 years old. I don't know if he was vaccinated (presume he's at least had one?) but he works in many house every day and, I suspect, goes drinking with the lads regularly too.
Let's be honest, the only time plumbers turn up on time is in porn.
Only a couple of years ago Naomi Wolf was regarded as a massive authority on lots of subjects. That was before she made a major error with one of her books, and then became an anti-vaxxer, leading to her being banned from Twitter.
And wasn't that book a repackaging of her PhD thesis?
Yes.
Humanities PhDs are quite often repackaged as books, are they not? At least by those who would remain in academia.
"Another racist tweet posted by a current England player has emerged, hours after Ollie Robinson was suspended from international cricket while an investigation into offensive tweets he posted in 2012 and 2013 is conducted.
Wisden.com have chosen to obscure the identity of the player, who had yet to turn 16 at the time. The screenshotted post, with identifying details blanked out, is below."
I really do think we need to keep more of an eye on this than people on here think...
Case numbers are pretty much now irrelevant. The important stat is numbers in hospital, which are remaining steady.
They’re up.
That cases surge looks to have started about 20 days ago. So hospitalisations should be about 10 days lagged.
10 days ago, we were at 743 in hospital in England; this morning we were at 860. The increase is primarily in the NW and East of England, where the Delta outbreaks are worst.
Could all be random fluctuations, but it’s still not ideal and not what I’d call flat.
I'm not seeing the data you're seeing on the coronavirus.data.gov.uk website.
Most recent UK data is 3/6 which had 932 in hospital. 10 days before that was 24/5 which had 955 in hospital. If that's an increase, I'm not seeing it.
Same with patients on mechanical ventilation. In reverse order the data for England is: 119, 124, 116, 123, 110, 115, 112, 116, 110, 115, 117, 113, 111, 117, 115, 113, 114, 117, 116, 115, 115, 119, 123, 126
If there's an increase there, I'm not seeing it.
In reverse order from this morning, from the NHS England data; last 10 days: Numbers in hospital - 860, 807, 782, 805, 779, 801, 776, 773, 755, 748 Number on mechanical ventilation - 133, 131, 124, 119, 124, 116, 123, 110, 115, 112
Only a couple of years ago Naomi Wolf was regarded as a massive authority on lots of subjects. That was before she made a major error with one of her books, and then became an anti-vaxxer, leading to her being banned from Twitter.
I think the issue with Wolf is she was always a tendentious fool, but that’s become much more obvious recently due to her higher profile.
Just a gentle reminder that no-one in the normal world has a clue who she is. BTW who is she? Love Island? Megan Markle's personal trainer? Winner of The Apprentice? Does the weather on Channel 5? Nero Wolfe's big sister?
Looking at hospitalisations etc and trying to determine if they are rising is I think missing the point. The question is, even if they do begin to rise, how much of a concern is it? The doomsters insist the any rise must prompt extreme measures because by the time you realise you’ve a problem it’s too late. But the counter is that any rises should not be seen as concerning because they will hit an impenetrable wall. The argument is simply that these people spend far too much time drawing lessons from last year and looking at models, and not nearly enough time looking at real world experience of places like Bolton.
I feel morally obligated to spend that money to help the economy and the people who have struggled these last fifteen months.
#Altruistic
Freakonomics had a good episode recently about WFH...it could well be another driver of inequality, if you have a profession where you can WFH from basically anywhere, you can easily choose to live somewhere cheaper and save all the money on commuting etc, extending your advantage over others.
Where as if you are a bus driver in London, you can hardly move to more than a quite limited distance from the capital with all the costs that incurs.
With the new flexible season tickets this is something that will get worse.
I'm fortunate that I work for a great employer, last March they spared no expense so we could all comfortably work from home, from paying for desks and chairs, and improved broadband/internet connections.
One colleague he and his wife who also worked from home, plus two teenage kids had to share a 37 Mbps internet connection.
Work paid for them to have a second internet connection as well mobile broadband coverage.
Flexible season tickets is a contradiction in terms! The whole point of a season ticket is that you can use it as much as you like in a given time period. That’s the definition of flexible!
What people want is the day rate to be the same as the annual rate. What will happen is that there will end up being a single rate (that will look suspiciously like the day rate) and you simply pay for one journey at a time with the option of loading journeys on to a smart card.
TPE and EMR are offering me a flexi season ticket that allows me 8 days of travel in 28 days.
It is brilliant and looks very reasonably priced.
I guess if the industry feels it needs to attract customers then we could see a genuine fall in prices. But that will have to be paid for (hello Mr Sunak) and I don’t think it’s great for the case for HS2.
Another dilemma is, how do we cope with everyone wanting to go into the office Tue-Thu. Cheaper rates on Fri-Mon?
I think HS2 looks even worse with us all set up to WFH.
I think our CEO isn't the only one to notice we've managed to increase sales/improve profitability despite our travel and entertainment being reduced to close to zero.
I'm also largely expecting to WFH this winter, I know I'm not alone.
My plumber couldn't come out today because he's tested positive for Covid.
Not sure of his age, but he can't be more than 35 years old. I don't know if he was vaccinated (presume he's at least had one?) but he works in many house every day and, I suspect, goes drinking with the lads regularly too.
Let's be honest, the only time plumbers turn up on time is in porn.
"Another racist tweet posted by a current England player has emerged, hours after Ollie Robinson was suspended from international cricket while an investigation into offensive tweets he posted in 2012 and 2013 is conducted.
Wisden.com have chosen to obscure the identity of the player, who had yet to turn 16 at the time. The screenshotted post, with identifying details blanked out, is below."
Looking at hospitalisations etc and trying to determine if they are rising is I think missing the point. The question is, even if they do begin to rise, how much of a concern is it? The doomsters insist the any rise must prompt extreme measures because by the time you realise you’ve a problem it’s too late. But the counter is that any rises should not be seen as concerning because they will hit an impenetrable wall. The argument is simply that these people spend far too much time drawing lessons from last year and looking at models, and not nearly enough time looking at real world experience of places like Bolton.
I’ve said it before and will say again, pretty much every model I have seen excludes any vaccine effect. Which is… odd in the extreme.
I feel morally obligated to spend that money to help the economy and the people who have struggled these last fifteen months.
#Altruistic
The Northampton shoe industry will have to expand to cope.
I don't need to buy any more footwear for the rest of the year.
I'm all stocked up.
It is Turnbull & Asser and the bespoke tailors of Savile Row that will see the majority of my clothing & footwear spending.
I've developed a thing for buying excess clothes over lockdown too. Particularly linen shirts for some reason. I've picked up some good gear at tasty prices.
Some fine silk cravats at Turnbull & Asser. D'you know any mutual acquaintances who you think might be interested in one?
I really do think we need to keep more of an eye on this than people on here think...
Case numbers are pretty much now irrelevant. The important stat is numbers in hospital, which are remaining steady.
They’re up.
That cases surge looks to have started about 20 days ago. So hospitalisations should be about 10 days lagged.
10 days ago, we were at 743 in hospital in England; this morning we were at 860. The increase is primarily in the NW and East of England, where the Delta outbreaks are worst.
Could all be random fluctuations, but it’s still not ideal and not what I’d call flat.
I'm not seeing the data you're seeing on the coronavirus.data.gov.uk website.
Most recent UK data is 3/6 which had 932 in hospital. 10 days before that was 24/5 which had 955 in hospital. If that's an increase, I'm not seeing it.
Same with patients on mechanical ventilation. In reverse order the data for England is: 119, 124, 116, 123, 110, 115, 112, 116, 110, 115, 117, 113, 111, 117, 115, 113, 114, 117, 116, 115, 115, 119, 123, 126
If there's an increase there, I'm not seeing it.
I think there's a wavelet slowly rippling out from Bolton but which will likely grow ever weaker as vaccinations increase.
It will lead to hospitalisations increasing for a couple of weeks in each local area it hits followed by them falling (as is already happening in Bolton).
"Another racist tweet posted by a current England player has emerged, hours after Ollie Robinson was suspended from international cricket while an investigation into offensive tweets he posted in 2012 and 2013 is conducted.
Wisden.com have chosen to obscure the identity of the player, who had yet to turn 16 at the time. The screenshotted post, with identifying details blanked out, is below."
"Another racist tweet posted by a current England player has emerged, hours after Ollie Robinson was suspended from international cricket while an investigation into offensive tweets he posted in 2012 and 2013 is conducted.
Wisden.com have chosen to obscure the identity of the player, who had yet to turn 16 at the time. The screenshotted post, with identifying details blanked out, is below."
I really do think we need to keep more of an eye on this than people on here think...
Case numbers are pretty much now irrelevant. The important stat is numbers in hospital, which are remaining steady.
They’re up.
That cases surge looks to have started about 20 days ago. So hospitalisations should be about 10 days lagged.
10 days ago, we were at 743 in hospital in England; this morning we were at 860. The increase is primarily in the NW and East of England, where the Delta outbreaks are worst.
Could all be random fluctuations, but it’s still not ideal and not what I’d call flat.
I'm not seeing the data you're seeing on the coronavirus.data.gov.uk website.
Most recent UK data is 3/6 which had 932 in hospital. 10 days before that was 24/5 which had 955 in hospital. If that's an increase, I'm not seeing it.
Same with patients on mechanical ventilation. In reverse order the data for England is: 119, 124, 116, 123, 110, 115, 112, 116, 110, 115, 117, 113, 111, 117, 115, 113, 114, 117, 116, 115, 115, 119, 123, 126
If there's an increase there, I'm not seeing it.
In reverse order from this morning, from the NHS England data; last 10 days: Numbers in hospital - 860, 807, 782, 805, 779, 801, 776, 773, 755, 748 Number on mechanical ventilation - 133, 131, 124, 119, 124, 116, 123, 110, 115, 112
But is that increase from fully vaccinated, partially vaccinated or unvaccinated and what's the age profile. The numbers here don't tell even 10% of the story. If it's the case that the rise is down to over 50s that have refused the vaccine then it's a real who gives a flying fuck moment for the whole country. From this afternoon Hancock told us that only 2 hospitalisations from the delta variant is from the fully vaccinated cohort and we know young people are unlikely to go to hospital for any kind of COVID. That means the people causing this rise are likely to be vaccine refusers. There is no scenario where we can or should delay even a single unlockdown measure to protect those who have refused to protect themselves.
A deeper analysis of these numbers is necessary and panicking over the raw numbers of cases or even hospitalisations helps no one.
Looking at hospitalisations etc and trying to determine if they are rising is I think missing the point. The question is, even if they do begin to rise, how much of a concern is it? The doomsters insist the any rise must prompt extreme measures because by the time you realise you’ve a problem it’s too late. But the counter is that any rises should not be seen as concerning because they will hit an impenetrable wall. The argument is simply that these people spend far too much time drawing lessons from last year and looking at models, and not nearly enough time looking at real world experience of places like Bolton.
I’ve said it before and will say again, pretty much every model I have seen excludes any vaccine effect. Which is… odd in the extreme.
They also, I think (even where they to account for vaccines) make worst case assumptions in relation to liking infection to serious illness. How much do we really know about the level of protection afforded by a single shot. We are told it has low levels of efficacy against infection, perhaps even against symptomatic infection. But what about serious illness or worse?
Looking at hospitalisations etc and trying to determine if they are rising is I think missing the point. The question is, even if they do begin to rise, how much of a concern is it? The doomsters insist the any rise must prompt extreme measures because by the time you realise you’ve a problem it’s too late. But the counter is that any rises should not be seen as concerning because they will hit an impenetrable wall. The argument is simply that these people spend far too much time drawing lessons from last year and looking at models, and not nearly enough time looking at real world experience of places like Bolton.
I’ve said it before and will say again, pretty much every model I have seen excludes any vaccine effect. Which is… odd in the extreme.
Check out @JamesWard73 on Twitter. His certainly do.
"Another racist tweet posted by a current England player has emerged, hours after Ollie Robinson was suspended from international cricket while an investigation into offensive tweets he posted in 2012 and 2013 is conducted.
Wisden.com have chosen to obscure the identity of the player, who had yet to turn 16 at the time. The screenshotted post, with identifying details blanked out, is below."
I feel morally obligated to spend that money to help the economy and the people who have struggled these last fifteen months.
#Altruistic
Freakonomics had a good episode recently about WFH...it could well be another driver of inequality, if you have a profession where you can WFH from basically anywhere, you can easily choose to live somewhere cheaper and save all the money on commuting etc, extending your advantage over others.
Where as if you are a bus driver in London, you can hardly move to more than a quite limited distance from the capital with all the costs that incurs.
Though, if London does become less desirable, that does benefit those that have to live there.
The interesting question is, what happens to London weighting? There have been whispers that the civil service might start cutting wages if people refuse to go to the office.
In a funny kind of way, we could end up with some people spending more time in the office. Pre-COVID there was a tendency for more senior members of staff to come and go as they pleased at my place. If we move to a more formal “you need to spend x number of hours at your desk”, some staff members will actually have to do more time in the office as it’ll have to apply to everyone.
Covid has made London more agreeable, in some ways. There are near-zero foreign tourists, so everywhere that is fun is less crowded. You can drive around the West End without a care (apart from the Congestion Charge)
And everyone everywhere is a Londoner. We reclaim our city, just for one summer. Camden Market is OURS.
Sadiq Khan is backing a full opening up on 21 June after speaking daily to health officials.
Interesting.
Yes, coming from an opposition party politician it certainly makes you sit up and take notice, although it has to be said he has to get London moving and fast.
I really do think we need to keep more of an eye on this than people on here think...
Case numbers are pretty much now irrelevant. The important stat is numbers in hospital, which are remaining steady.
They’re up.
That cases surge looks to have started about 20 days ago. So hospitalisations should be about 10 days lagged.
10 days ago, we were at 743 in hospital in England; this morning we were at 860. The increase is primarily in the NW and East of England, where the Delta outbreaks are worst.
Could all be random fluctuations, but it’s still not ideal and not what I’d call flat.
I'm not seeing the data you're seeing on the coronavirus.data.gov.uk website.
Most recent UK data is 3/6 which had 932 in hospital. 10 days before that was 24/5 which had 955 in hospital. If that's an increase, I'm not seeing it.
Same with patients on mechanical ventilation. In reverse order the data for England is: 119, 124, 116, 123, 110, 115, 112, 116, 110, 115, 117, 113, 111, 117, 115, 113, 114, 117, 116, 115, 115, 119, 123, 126
If there's an increase there, I'm not seeing it.
In reverse order from this morning, from the NHS England data; last 10 days: Numbers in hospital - 860, 807, 782, 805, 779, 801, 776, 773, 755, 748 Number on mechanical ventilation - 133, 131, 124, 119, 124, 116, 123, 110, 115, 112
I don’t know how anyone can call that “flat”.
A couple of potential straws:
- The increase in numbers overall is primarily in the NW and East; and the increase in mechanical ventilation numbers is almost entirely there. Implying it’s primarily the Delta outbreaks (and a few of them are coming under control). Also implies that without Delta, we’d have been golden. - The duration of time in hospital seems to be decreasing (number is now c. 7.5 days of admissions). Discharge rates seem to have started increasing first and have only recently been outweighed by the increasing admissions rates, which has bought us a week or two. Given the vaccination improvements, that makes some difference.
My plumber couldn't come out today because he's tested positive for Covid.
Not sure of his age, but he can't be more than 35 years old. I don't know if he was vaccinated (presume he's at least had one?) but he works in many house every day and, I suspect, goes drinking with the lads regularly too.
Let's be honest, the only time plumbers turn up on time is in porn.
To be clear: that wasn't why he was coming to my house.
"Another racist tweet posted by a current England player has emerged, hours after Ollie Robinson was suspended from international cricket while an investigation into offensive tweets he posted in 2012 and 2013 is conducted.
Wisden.com have chosen to obscure the identity of the player, who had yet to turn 16 at the time. The screenshotted post, with identifying details blanked out, is below."
Some people need to get a fucking grip and not be trawling through decades old Tweets by children looking for something to take offence to.
I'm all for BLM, taking a knee, anti-racism etc. But this sort of thing is just pathetic - and creepy too.
No wonder some cricketers have been deleting their twitter accounts. Under 16, a school child.
There must be interns currrently scanning stars twitter feeds for anything they can throw at them.
Guido does this with politicians, but I think there is some value in that as it tends to reveal what these people are like.
I’m not fussed what a medium pace bowler said 9 years ago. I know it’s a cliche, but seam bowlers aren’t the sharpest tools in the box. Just look at the Sky commentary box. Michael Holding is the token fast bowler.
Sadiq Khan is backing a full opening up on 21 June after speaking daily to health officials.
Interesting.
Wow, unexpectedly positive from him but I suspect he's realised that London is fucked unless all of this is binned, especially permanent WFH. That's killing the city centre.
Sadiq Khan is backing a full opening up on 21 June after speaking daily to health officials.
Interesting.
Given his submariner tendencies, that must mean either that he knows it's on and wants to grab a little credit for when it happens, or he knows it's off and wants to deflect blame if London gets locked down because of Blackburn...
"Another racist tweet posted by a current England player has emerged, hours after Ollie Robinson was suspended from international cricket while an investigation into offensive tweets he posted in 2012 and 2013 is conducted.
Wisden.com have chosen to obscure the identity of the player, who had yet to turn 16 at the time. The screenshotted post, with identifying details blanked out, is below."
Some people need to get a fucking grip and not be trawling through decades old Tweets by children looking for something to take offence to.
I'm all for BLM, taking a knee, anti-racism etc. But this sort of thing is just pathetic - and creepy too.
No wonder some cricketers have been deleting their twitter accounts. Under 16, a school child.
There must be interns currrently scanning stars twitter feeds for anything they can throw at them.
Guido does this with politicians, but I think there is some value in that as it tends to reveal what these people are like.
I’m not fussed what a medium pace bowler said 9 years ago. I know it’s a cliche, but seam bowlers aren’t the sharpest tools in the box. Just look at the Sky commentary box. Michael Holding is the token fast bowler.
I am not sure what you say when you are 16, and trying to appear something you are not in front of your peers and a social environment which is often pretty toxic on many levels, tells anyone much about the person you are as a fully matured adult.
"Another racist tweet posted by a current England player has emerged, hours after Ollie Robinson was suspended from international cricket while an investigation into offensive tweets he posted in 2012 and 2013 is conducted.
Wisden.com have chosen to obscure the identity of the player, who had yet to turn 16 at the time. The screenshotted post, with identifying details blanked out, is below."
"Another racist tweet posted by a current England player has emerged, hours after Ollie Robinson was suspended from international cricket while an investigation into offensive tweets he posted in 2012 and 2013 is conducted.
Wisden.com have chosen to obscure the identity of the player, who had yet to turn 16 at the time. The screenshotted post, with identifying details blanked out, is below."
"Another racist tweet posted by a current England player has emerged, hours after Ollie Robinson was suspended from international cricket while an investigation into offensive tweets he posted in 2012 and 2013 is conducted.
Wisden.com have chosen to obscure the identity of the player, who had yet to turn 16 at the time. The screenshotted post, with identifying details blanked out, is below."
Some people need to get a fucking grip and not be trawling through decades old Tweets by children looking for something to take offence to.
I'm all for BLM, taking a knee, anti-racism etc. But this sort of thing is just pathetic - and creepy too.
No wonder some cricketers have been deleting their twitter accounts. Under 16, a school child.
There must be interns currrently scanning stars twitter feeds for anything they can throw at them.
Guido does this with politicians, but I think there is some value in that as it tends to reveal what these people are like.
I’m not fussed what a medium pace bowler said 9 years ago. I know it’s a cliche, but seam bowlers aren’t the sharpest tools in the box. Just look at the Sky commentary box. Michael Holding is the token fast bowler.
I am not sure what you say when you are 16, and trying to appear something you are not in front of your peers and a social environment which is often pretty toxic on many levels, tells anyone much about the person you are as a fully matured adult.
Guido doesn’t tend to do it to 16 year olds!
Quite what age it becomes more telling, I’m not sure. Maybe 25? I guess that lets Sultana off the hook as I think she was 22 when she was posting nasty stuff.
I really do think we need to keep more of an eye on this than people on here think...
Case numbers are pretty much now irrelevant. The important stat is numbers in hospital, which are remaining steady.
Hmmm...not looking that great either TBH in terms of trend...
Yes it is, that's pretty miniscule.
Plus people are presenting to hospitals with less severe illnesses that result in discharges quicker, rather than severe cases that end up on a ventilator.
On 30 April there were 1,153 patients in hospital. On 31 May (latest data) there are 932 patients in hospital.
There's no upwards trend on patients in hospital.
In England beds occupied have gone up from 743 ten days ago to over 800 today. That’s anything but flat.
805 in the most recent data. 11 days prior it was 797.
That's pretty flat. Its bounced around ~740 to ~800 on a daily basis since 16 May.
FPT: my proposed bet is UK hospital admissions > 200 for at least 2 days in month of June. £20 to pb.com from loser. You game?
I really do think we need to keep more of an eye on this than people on here think...
Case numbers are pretty much now irrelevant. The important stat is numbers in hospital, which are remaining steady.
Hmmm...not looking that great either TBH in terms of trend...
Yes it is, that's pretty miniscule.
Plus people are presenting to hospitals with less severe illnesses that result in discharges quicker, rather than severe cases that end up on a ventilator.
On 30 April there were 1,153 patients in hospital. On 31 May (latest data) there are 932 patients in hospital.
There's no upwards trend on patients in hospital.
In England beds occupied have gone up from 743 ten days ago to over 800 today. That’s anything but flat.
805 in the most recent data. 11 days prior it was 797.
That's pretty flat. Its bounced around ~740 to ~800 on a daily basis since 16 May.
It’s 860. The daily PHE spreadsheet is at this link. The dashboard doesn’t update beds daily.
So there's a single day that's the exception to the rule and that's meant to cause us all to freak out?
A few issues with that. One is that we don't know whether that's due to vaccine refusers or due to vaccines not working. If the former then that doesn't change anything, the vaccine refusers could end up getting their antibodies one way or another, if they won't get it from vaccines then they risk getting it the hard way.
Secondly the data could be warped at the moment due to half-term and the bank holiday etc. There's a pattern in the data that it ebbs and flows peaking on Mondays then receding again, almost as if people would rather go to the hospital instead of work rather than losing their weekend. So if some people have postponed going to hospital during half-term that could see a short spike now then it recedes again - and counting from the trough of ~740 when it was ~800 two days earlier/later than when it was ~740 is not really logical.
Sadiq Khan is backing a full opening up on 21 June after speaking daily to health officials.
Interesting.
Given his submariner tendencies, that must mean either that he knows it's on and wants to grab a little credit for when it happens, or he knows it's off and wants to deflect blame if London gets locked down because of Blackburn...
Why would he have to deflect blame in the latter case?
"Another racist tweet posted by a current England player has emerged, hours after Ollie Robinson was suspended from international cricket while an investigation into offensive tweets he posted in 2012 and 2013 is conducted.
Wisden.com have chosen to obscure the identity of the player, who had yet to turn 16 at the time. The screenshotted post, with identifying details blanked out, is below."
Some people need to get a fucking grip and not be trawling through decades old Tweets by children looking for something to take offence to.
I'm all for BLM, taking a knee, anti-racism etc. But this sort of thing is just pathetic - and creepy too.
No wonder some cricketers have been deleting their twitter accounts. Under 16, a school child.
There must be interns currrently scanning stars twitter feeds for anything they can throw at them.
Guido does this with politicians, but I think there is some value in that as it tends to reveal what these people are like.
I’m not fussed what a medium pace bowler said 9 years ago. I know it’s a cliche, but seam bowlers aren’t the sharpest tools in the box. Just look at the Sky commentary box. Michael Holding is the token fast bowler.
I am not sure what you say when you are 16, and trying to appear something you are not in front of your peers and a social environment which is often pretty toxic on many levels, tells anyone much about the person you are as a fully matured adult.
Guido doesn’t tend to do it to 16 year olds!
Quite what age it becomes more telling, I’m not sure. Maybe 25? I guess that lets Sultana off the hook as I think she was 22 when she was posting nasty stuff.
He normally has a lot more than a single tweet...the ones he goes for normally have a body of work so to say.
"Another racist tweet posted by a current England player has emerged, hours after Ollie Robinson was suspended from international cricket while an investigation into offensive tweets he posted in 2012 and 2013 is conducted.
Wisden.com have chosen to obscure the identity of the player, who had yet to turn 16 at the time. The screenshotted post, with identifying details blanked out, is below."
Some people need to get a fucking grip and not be trawling through decades old Tweets by children looking for something to take offence to.
I'm all for BLM, taking a knee, anti-racism etc. But this sort of thing is just pathetic - and creepy too.
No wonder some cricketers have been deleting their twitter accounts. Under 16, a school child.
There must be interns currrently scanning stars twitter feeds for anything they can throw at them.
Guido does this with politicians, but I think there is some value in that as it tends to reveal what these people are like.
I’m not fussed what a medium pace bowler said 9 years ago. I know it’s a cliche, but seam bowlers aren’t the sharpest tools in the box. Just look at the Sky commentary box. Michael Holding is the token fast bowler.
I am not sure what you say when you are 16, and trying to appear something you are not in front of your peers and a social environment which is often pretty toxic on many levels, tells anyone much about the person you are as a fully matured adult.
Guido doesn’t tend to do it to 16 year olds!
Quite what age it becomes more telling, I’m not sure. Maybe 25? I guess that lets Sultana off the hook as I think she was 22 when she was posting nasty stuff.
Once you are an adult things will naturally take on a different level of seriousness, but I'd have thought the key would have been whether it is reflected by actions and words since then.
That's what is silly about the Robinson punishment, as there was some talk about him needing to essentially go away and think about who he is and so on, but unless stuff emerges in the intervening period from when he was 18 and now, he doesn't have anything to think on, as he's already apologised. If they turn up a bunch more stuff, sure, that puts a different spin on it, but he won't learn anything from a suspension based on the old stuff, as he's already learned a lesson in that he doesn't tweet stuff like that anymore.
"Another racist tweet posted by a current England player has emerged, hours after Ollie Robinson was suspended from international cricket while an investigation into offensive tweets he posted in 2012 and 2013 is conducted.
Wisden.com have chosen to obscure the identity of the player, who had yet to turn 16 at the time. The screenshotted post, with identifying details blanked out, is below."
Some people need to get a fucking grip and not be trawling through decades old Tweets by children looking for something to take offence to.
I'm all for BLM, taking a knee, anti-racism etc. But this sort of thing is just pathetic - and creepy too.
No wonder some cricketers have been deleting their twitter accounts. Under 16, a school child.
There must be interns currrently scanning stars twitter feeds for anything they can throw at them.
Guido does this with politicians, but I think there is some value in that as it tends to reveal what these people are like.
I’m not fussed what a medium pace bowler said 9 years ago. I know it’s a cliche, but seam bowlers aren’t the sharpest tools in the box. Just look at the Sky commentary box. Michael Holding is the token fast bowler.
I really do think we need to keep more of an eye on this than people on here think...
Case numbers are pretty much now irrelevant. The important stat is numbers in hospital, which are remaining steady.
Hmmm...not looking that great either TBH in terms of trend...
Yes it is, that's pretty miniscule.
Plus people are presenting to hospitals with less severe illnesses that result in discharges quicker, rather than severe cases that end up on a ventilator.
On 30 April there were 1,153 patients in hospital. On 31 May (latest data) there are 932 patients in hospital.
There's no upwards trend on patients in hospital.
In England beds occupied have gone up from 743 ten days ago to over 800 today. That’s anything but flat.
805 in the most recent data. 11 days prior it was 797.
That's pretty flat. Its bounced around ~740 to ~800 on a daily basis since 16 May.
FPT: my proposed bet is UK hospital admissions > 200 for at least 2 days in month of June. £20 to pb.com from loser. You game?
No, that's within the realms of natural variation. The 7 day average is ~125 now so having just 2 days in June reaching 200 is pretty meaningless.
If it was doubling every 11 days it should be reaching 500 as a 7 day average by the end of June.
"Another racist tweet posted by a current England player has emerged, hours after Ollie Robinson was suspended from international cricket while an investigation into offensive tweets he posted in 2012 and 2013 is conducted.
Wisden.com have chosen to obscure the identity of the player, who had yet to turn 16 at the time. The screenshotted post, with identifying details blanked out, is below."
Some people need to get a fucking grip and not be trawling through decades old Tweets by children looking for something to take offence to.
I'm all for BLM, taking a knee, anti-racism etc. But this sort of thing is just pathetic - and creepy too.
No wonder some cricketers have been deleting their twitter accounts. Under 16, a school child.
There must be interns currrently scanning stars twitter feeds for anything they can throw at them.
Guido does this with politicians, but I think there is some value in that as it tends to reveal what these people are like.
I’m not fussed what a medium pace bowler said 9 years ago. I know it’s a cliche, but seam bowlers aren’t the sharpest tools in the box. Just look at the Sky commentary box. Michael Holding is the token fast bowler.
I am not sure what you say when you are 16, and trying to appear something you are not in front of your peers and a social environment which is often pretty toxic on many levels, tells anyone much about the person you are as a fully matured adult.
Guido doesn’t tend to do it to 16 year olds!
Quite what age it becomes more telling, I’m not sure. Maybe 25? I guess that lets Sultana off the hook as I think she was 22 when she was posting nasty stuff.
Once you are an adult things will naturally take on a different level of seriousness, but I'd have thought the key would have been whether it is reflected by actions and words since then.
That's what is silly about the Robinson punishment, as there was some talk about him needing to essentially go away and think about who he is and so on, but unless stuff emerges in the intervening period from when he was 18 and now, he doesn't have anything to think on, as he's already apologised. If they turn up a bunch more stuff, sure, that puts a different spin on it, but he won't learn anything from a suspension based on the old stuff, as he's already learned a lesson in that he doesn't tweet stuff like that anymore.
If I was Robinson I would be extremely pissed off with the ECB...he did everything they asked of him, did an apology like he was some hostage, and then he comes out and top performance and rather than shake his hand they say watch out for that bus, what bus, arrhhhhh as he is pushed under it.
"Another racist tweet posted by a current England player has emerged, hours after Ollie Robinson was suspended from international cricket while an investigation into offensive tweets he posted in 2012 and 2013 is conducted.
Wisden.com have chosen to obscure the identity of the player, who had yet to turn 16 at the time. The screenshotted post, with identifying details blanked out, is below."
Some people need to get a fucking grip and not be trawling through decades old Tweets by children looking for something to take offence to.
I'm all for BLM, taking a knee, anti-racism etc. But this sort of thing is just pathetic - and creepy too.
No wonder some cricketers have been deleting their twitter accounts. Under 16, a school child.
There must be interns currrently scanning stars twitter feeds for anything they can throw at them.
Guido does this with politicians, but I think there is some value in that as it tends to reveal what these people are like.
I’m not fussed what a medium pace bowler said 9 years ago. I know it’s a cliche, but seam bowlers aren’t the sharpest tools in the box. Just look at the Sky commentary box. Michael Holding is the token fast bowler.
My plumber couldn't come out today because he's tested positive for Covid.
Not sure of his age, but he can't be more than 35 years old. I don't know if he was vaccinated (presume he's at least had one?) but he works in many house every day and, I suspect, goes drinking with the lads regularly too.
Let's be honest, the only time plumbers turn up on time is in porn.
I feel morally obligated to spend that money to help the economy and the people who have struggled these last fifteen months.
#Altruistic
Freakonomics had a good episode recently about WFH...it could well be another driver of inequality, if you have a profession where you can WFH from basically anywhere, you can easily choose to live somewhere cheaper and save all the money on commuting etc, extending your advantage over others.
Where as if you are a bus driver in London, you can hardly move to more than a quite limited distance from the capital with all the costs that incurs.
With the new flexible season tickets this is something that will get worse.
I'm fortunate that I work for a great employer, last March they spared no expense so we could all comfortably work from home, from paying for desks and chairs, and improved broadband/internet connections.
One colleague he and his wife who also worked from home, plus two teenage kids had to share a 37 Mbps internet connection.
Work paid for them to have a second internet connection as well mobile broadband coverage.
Flexible season tickets is a contradiction in terms! The whole point of a season ticket is that you can use it as much as you like in a given time period. That’s the definition of flexible!
What people want is the day rate to be the same as the annual rate. What will happen is that there will end up being a single rate (that will look suspiciously like the day rate) and you simply pay for one journey at a time with the option of loading journeys on to a smart card.
TPE and EMR are offering me a flexi season ticket that allows me 8 days of travel in 28 days.
It is brilliant and looks very reasonably priced.
Northern are doing the same. I have sent off for (and received) the free smartcard onto which the flexi season ticket is loaded. There are now card readers installed at the station so that you can flash and go.
Sadiq Khan is backing a full opening up on 21 June after speaking daily to health officials.
Interesting.
Given his submariner tendencies, that must mean either that he knows it's on and wants to grab a little credit for when it happens, or he knows it's off and wants to deflect blame if London gets locked down because of Blackburn...
Why would he have to deflect blame in the latter case?
In the sense of being able to say 'Look, I was on the record arguing that we should open up on time but the Government went against me on this because of cases in other parts of the country'. He's been alternating between pro- and anti-lockdown throughout, so he’ll want to get his positioning right this time.
So I'm not sure if Sadiq’s intervention is good or bad news; but at least he’s correct this time, in my view.
I feel morally obligated to spend that money to help the economy and the people who have struggled these last fifteen months.
#Altruistic
The Northampton shoe industry will have to expand to cope.
I don't need to buy any more footwear for the rest of the year.
I'm all stocked up.
It is Turnbull & Asser and the bespoke tailors of Savile Row that will see the majority of my clothing & footwear spending.
I've developed a thing for buying excess clothes over lockdown too. Particularly linen shirts for some reason. I've picked up some good gear at tasty prices.
Work clothes such as suits are a real bargain at the moment. Not that I am buying, as it looks like scrubs for a while yet. NHS England has told us at the weekend that the June 21st relaxation doesn't apply to health care settings.
Any recommendations for where to buy a decent suit, @Foxy? I seem to need to upgrade my size a little (I blame lockdown) and I've found it very hard to replace my Austin Reed suits with anything of comparable quality.
"Another racist tweet posted by a current England player has emerged, hours after Ollie Robinson was suspended from international cricket while an investigation into offensive tweets he posted in 2012 and 2013 is conducted.
Wisden.com have chosen to obscure the identity of the player, who had yet to turn 16 at the time. The screenshotted post, with identifying details blanked out, is below."
Some people need to get a fucking grip and not be trawling through decades old Tweets by children looking for something to take offence to.
I'm all for BLM, taking a knee, anti-racism etc. But this sort of thing is just pathetic - and creepy too.
No wonder some cricketers have been deleting their twitter accounts. Under 16, a school child.
There must be interns currrently scanning stars twitter feeds for anything they can throw at them.
Guido does this with politicians, but I think there is some value in that as it tends to reveal what these people are like.
I’m not fussed what a medium pace bowler said 9 years ago. I know it’s a cliche, but seam bowlers aren’t the sharpest tools in the box. Just look at the Sky commentary box. Michael Holding is the token fast bowler.
I am not sure what you say when you are 16, and trying to appear something you are not in front of your peers and a social environment which is often pretty toxic on many levels, tells anyone much about the person you are as a fully matured adult.
Guido doesn’t tend to do it to 16 year olds!
Quite what age it becomes more telling, I’m not sure. Maybe 25? I guess that lets Sultana off the hook as I think she was 22 when she was posting nasty stuff.
Once you are an adult things will naturally take on a different level of seriousness, but I'd have thought the key would have been whether it is reflected by actions and words since then.
That's what is silly about the Robinson punishment, as there was some talk about him needing to essentially go away and think about who he is and so on, but unless stuff emerges in the intervening period from when he was 18 and now, he doesn't have anything to think on, as he's already apologised. If they turn up a bunch more stuff, sure, that puts a different spin on it, but he won't learn anything from a suspension based on the old stuff, as he's already learned a lesson in that he doesn't tweet stuff like that anymore.
Completely crazy to ban him at all. The worlds gone mad
"Another racist tweet posted by a current England player has emerged, hours after Ollie Robinson was suspended from international cricket while an investigation into offensive tweets he posted in 2012 and 2013 is conducted.
Wisden.com have chosen to obscure the identity of the player, who had yet to turn 16 at the time. The screenshotted post, with identifying details blanked out, is below."
Some people need to get a fucking grip and not be trawling through decades old Tweets by children looking for something to take offence to.
I'm all for BLM, taking a knee, anti-racism etc. But this sort of thing is just pathetic - and creepy too.
No wonder some cricketers have been deleting their twitter accounts. Under 16, a school child.
There must be interns currrently scanning stars twitter feeds for anything they can throw at them.
Guido does this with politicians, but I think there is some value in that as it tends to reveal what these people are like.
I’m not fussed what a medium pace bowler said 9 years ago. I know it’s a cliche, but seam bowlers aren’t the sharpest tools in the box. Just look at the Sky commentary box. Michael Holding is the token fast bowler.
Token fast bowler. 😂
Cricket commentary & admin does tend to be dominated by batsmen tbf - Boycott, Vaughn, Hussain, Gower, Strauss, Knight
I feel morally obligated to spend that money to help the economy and the people who have struggled these last fifteen months.
#Altruistic
The Northampton shoe industry will have to expand to cope.
I don't need to buy any more footwear for the rest of the year.
I'm all stocked up.
It is Turnbull & Asser and the bespoke tailors of Savile Row that will see the majority of my clothing & footwear spending.
I've developed a thing for buying excess clothes over lockdown too. Particularly linen shirts for some reason. I've picked up some good gear at tasty prices.
Work clothes such as suits are a real bargain at the moment. Not that I am buying, as it looks like scrubs for a while yet. NHS England has told us at the weekend that the June 21st relaxation doesn't apply to health care settings.
Any recommendations for where to buy a decent suit, @Foxy? I seem to need to upgrade my size a little (I blame lockdown) and I've found it very hard to replace my Austin Reed suits with anything of comparable quality.
Ariel Karlinsky @ArielKarlinsky Updated version of #WorldMortality paper up on @medrxivpreprint - now has 94 countries, lots of 2021 data, and much more detailed discussion of results thanks to great comments and reviews.
"Another racist tweet posted by a current England player has emerged, hours after Ollie Robinson was suspended from international cricket while an investigation into offensive tweets he posted in 2012 and 2013 is conducted.
Wisden.com have chosen to obscure the identity of the player, who had yet to turn 16 at the time. The screenshotted post, with identifying details blanked out, is below."
Some people need to get a fucking grip and not be trawling through decades old Tweets by children looking for something to take offence to.
I'm all for BLM, taking a knee, anti-racism etc. But this sort of thing is just pathetic - and creepy too.
No wonder some cricketers have been deleting their twitter accounts. Under 16, a school child.
There must be interns currrently scanning stars twitter feeds for anything they can throw at them.
Guido does this with politicians, but I think there is some value in that as it tends to reveal what these people are like.
I’m not fussed what a medium pace bowler said 9 years ago. I know it’s a cliche, but seam bowlers aren’t the sharpest tools in the box. Just look at the Sky commentary box. Michael Holding is the token fast bowler.
I am not sure what you say when you are 16, and trying to appear something you are not in front of your peers and a social environment which is often pretty toxic on many levels, tells anyone much about the person you are as a fully matured adult.
Guido doesn’t tend to do it to 16 year olds!
Quite what age it becomes more telling, I’m not sure. Maybe 25? I guess that lets Sultana off the hook as I think she was 22 when she was posting nasty stuff.
Once you are an adult things will naturally take on a different level of seriousness, but I'd have thought the key would have been whether it is reflected by actions and words since then.
That's what is silly about the Robinson punishment, as there was some talk about him needing to essentially go away and think about who he is and so on, but unless stuff emerges in the intervening period from when he was 18 and now, he doesn't have anything to think on, as he's already apologised. If they turn up a bunch more stuff, sure, that puts a different spin on it, but he won't learn anything from a suspension based on the old stuff, as he's already learned a lesson in that he doesn't tweet stuff like that anymore.
"Another racist tweet posted by a current England player has emerged, hours after Ollie Robinson was suspended from international cricket while an investigation into offensive tweets he posted in 2012 and 2013 is conducted.
Wisden.com have chosen to obscure the identity of the player, who had yet to turn 16 at the time. The screenshotted post, with identifying details blanked out, is below."
Some people need to get a fucking grip and not be trawling through decades old Tweets by children looking for something to take offence to.
I'm all for BLM, taking a knee, anti-racism etc. But this sort of thing is just pathetic - and creepy too.
No wonder some cricketers have been deleting their twitter accounts. Under 16, a school child.
There must be interns currrently scanning stars twitter feeds for anything they can throw at them.
Guido does this with politicians, but I think there is some value in that as it tends to reveal what these people are like.
I’m not fussed what a medium pace bowler said 9 years ago. I know it’s a cliche, but seam bowlers aren’t the sharpest tools in the box. Just look at the Sky commentary box. Michael Holding is the token fast bowler.
I am not sure what you say when you are 16, and trying to appear something you are not in front of your peers and a social environment which is often pretty toxic on many levels, tells anyone much about the person you are as a fully matured adult.
Guido doesn’t tend to do it to 16 year olds!
Quite what age it becomes more telling, I’m not sure. Maybe 25? I guess that lets Sultana off the hook as I think she was 22 when she was posting nasty stuff.
Once you are an adult things will naturally take on a different level of seriousness, but I'd have thought the key would have been whether it is reflected by actions and words since then.
That's what is silly about the Robinson punishment, as there was some talk about him needing to essentially go away and think about who he is and so on, but unless stuff emerges in the intervening period from when he was 18 and now, he doesn't have anything to think on, as he's already apologised. If they turn up a bunch more stuff, sure, that puts a different spin on it, but he won't learn anything from a suspension based on the old stuff, as he's already learned a lesson in that he doesn't tweet stuff like that anymore.
Which point surely applies to Ross Peltier, the ex-Green candidate in B+S, too. Some stuff said many years ago. None AFAIAA in recent years. And he's only 29 now. I fear this what was once said Online will hang over this generation in the way having been spliff keen hung over mine. But with far more hard evidence. Until, eventually, a truce is called., because it affects a critical mass in senior positions.
Sadiq Khan is backing a full opening up on 21 June after speaking daily to health officials.
Interesting.
Given his submariner tendencies, that must mean either that he knows it's on and wants to grab a little credit for when it happens, or he knows it's off and wants to deflect blame if London gets locked down because of Blackburn...
Why would he have to deflect blame in the latter case?
In the sense of being able to say 'Look, I was on the record arguing that we should open up on time but the Government went against me on this because of cases in other parts of the country'. He's been alternating between pro- and anti-lockdown throughout, so he’ll want to get his positioning right this time.
So I'm not sure if Sadiq’s intervention is good or bad news; but at least he’s correct this time, in my view.
It’s got to be good news I think, not least because he’s breaking ranks from some of the nonsense the Parliamentary Labour Party are coming out with. Useful also that he cites “having spoken to health officials on the ground” in contrast to the second and third hand speculation used by Starmer, Ashcroft, Nandy et al
“ Recent case data indeed not looking good, it would be folly to open up on 21 June. Were it not for variant delta (first detected in India), there would be no problem in fully opening domestic economy. Wouldn’t even be a serious debate. But here we are… again…”
There’s. No. Way. 21. June. Will. Happen.
June 21st will happen.
In the most literal sense of the date following the 20th, yes it will happen, but there cannot be any chance now of a full reopening of the economy,
My work has a scheduled return to the office for the 5th of July, we've modified that to say only people who have been double jabbed will return to the office, everyone else has to wait until 10 days after their second jab.
I suspect the government will operate on those lines.
Holding on sky needs putting out to pasture like Botham...his analysis is basically well when I played I just bowled quick.....i don't understand what they are trying to do in the modern game, why not just bowl fast....and no idea who these players are.
Comments
Plus people are presenting to hospitals with less severe illnesses that result in discharges quicker, rather than severe cases that end up on a ventilator.
On 30 April there were 1,153 patients in hospital.
On 31 May (latest data) there are 932 patients in hospital.
There's no upwards trend on patients in hospital.
Another dilemma is, how do we cope with everyone wanting to go into the office Tue-Thu. Cheaper rates on Fri-Mon?
That cases surge looks to have started about 20 days ago. So hospitalisations should be about 10 days lagged.
10 days ago, we were at 743 in hospital in England; this morning we were at 860.
The increase is primarily in the NW and East of England, where the Delta outbreaks are worst.
Could all be random fluctuations, but it’s still not ideal and not what I’d call flat.
I suspect the government will operate on those lines.
Most recent UK data is 3/6 which had 932 in hospital. 10 days before that was 24/5 which had 955 in hospital. If that's an increase, I'm not seeing it.
Same with patients on mechanical ventilation. In reverse order the data for England is: 119, 124, 116, 123, 110, 115, 112, 116, 110, 115, 117, 113, 111, 117, 115, 113, 114, 117, 116, 115, 115, 119, 123, 126
If there's an increase there, I'm not seeing it.
Hospital numbers for England up to this morning (rather than just the 3rd)
Not sure of his age, but he can't be more than 35 years old. I don't know if he was vaccinated (presume he's at least had one?) but he works in many house every day and, I suspect, goes drinking with the lads regularly too.
That's pretty flat. Its bounced around ~740 to ~800 on a daily basis since 16 May.
Wisden.com have chosen to obscure the identity of the player, who had yet to turn 16 at the time. The screenshotted post, with identifying details blanked out, is below."
https://wisden.com/stories/news-stories/another-racist-tweet-posted-by-current-england-player-emerges
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/06/COVID-19-daily-admissions-and-beds-20210607.xlsx
Numbers in hospital - 860, 807, 782, 805, 779, 801, 776, 773, 755, 748
Number on mechanical ventilation - 133, 131, 124, 119, 124, 116, 123, 110, 115, 112
Most of the others were long past 16 before Twitter became a thing.
Good night.
Some people need to get a fucking grip and not be trawling through decades old Tweets by children looking for something to take offence to.
I'm all for BLM, taking a knee, anti-racism etc. But this sort of thing is just pathetic - and creepy too.
She’s the first cousin of Wolf from Gladiators.
I think our CEO isn't the only one to notice we've managed to increase sales/improve profitability despite our travel and entertainment being reduced to close to zero.
I'm also largely expecting to WFH this winter, I know I'm not alone.
It will lead to hospitalisations increasing for a couple of weeks in each local area it hits followed by them falling (as is already happening in Bolton).
There's a smaller effect originating in Bedford.
There must be interns currrently scanning stars twitter feeds for anything they can throw at them.
A deeper analysis of these numbers is necessary and panicking over the raw numbers of cases or even hospitalisations helps no one.
Interesting.
And everyone everywhere is a Londoner. We reclaim our city, just for one summer. Camden Market is OURS.
It feels like the 1960s
- The increase in numbers overall is primarily in the NW and East; and the increase in mechanical ventilation numbers is almost entirely there. Implying it’s primarily the Delta outbreaks (and a few of them are coming under control). Also implies that without Delta, we’d have been golden.
- The duration of time in hospital seems to be decreasing (number is now c. 7.5 days of admissions). Discharge rates seem to have started increasing first and have only recently been outweighed by the increasing admissions rates, which has bought us a week or two. Given the vaccination improvements, that makes some difference.
I’m not fussed what a medium pace bowler said 9 years ago. I know it’s a cliche, but seam bowlers aren’t the sharpest tools in the box. Just look at the Sky commentary box. Michael Holding is the token fast bowler.
Interestingly, certain areas of W London which had been doing relatively poorly over the last few months have stabilised/improved in relative terms.
Ward himself says that if Hancock is right about 40% transmissibility advantage for Delta, we should go ahead on 21 June.
So he’s waiting for more data.
He was 22 when that happened !
Quite what age it becomes more telling, I’m not sure. Maybe 25? I guess that lets Sultana off the hook as I think she was 22 when she was posting nasty stuff.
A few issues with that. One is that we don't know whether that's due to vaccine refusers or due to vaccines not working. If the former then that doesn't change anything, the vaccine refusers could end up getting their antibodies one way or another, if they won't get it from vaccines then they risk getting it the hard way.
Secondly the data could be warped at the moment due to half-term and the bank holiday etc. There's a pattern in the data that it ebbs and flows peaking on Mondays then receding again, almost as if people would rather go to the hospital instead of work rather than losing their weekend. So if some people have postponed going to hospital during half-term that could see a short spike now then it recedes again - and counting from the trough of ~740 when it was ~800 two days earlier/later than when it was ~740 is not really logical.
That's what is silly about the Robinson punishment, as there was some talk about him needing to essentially go away and think about who he is and so on, but unless stuff emerges in the intervening period from when he was 18 and now, he doesn't have anything to think on, as he's already apologised. If they turn up a bunch more stuff, sure, that puts a different spin on it, but he won't learn anything from a suspension based on the old stuff, as he's already learned a lesson in that he doesn't tweet stuff like that anymore.
If it was doubling every 11 days it should be reaching 500 as a 7 day average by the end of June.
So I'm not sure if Sadiq’s intervention is good or bad news; but at least he’s correct this time, in my view.
--AS
Net "Improve":
Con: +61
Lab: +1
LD: +39
Public Sector: +2
Private Sector: +29
Oh, and Scots: +1
Mind you, the way Nipoleon has carried on, the latter may have a point....
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2021-06/Ipsos MORI June Political Monitor_070621_PUBLIC.pdf
@ArielKarlinsky
Updated version of #WorldMortality paper up on
@medrxivpreprint
- now has 94 countries, lots of 2021 data, and much more detailed discussion of results thanks to great comments and reviews.
https://twitter.com/ArielKarlinsky/status/1401895945999208461
Some stuff said many years ago. None AFAIAA in recent years. And he's only 29 now.
I fear this what was once said Online will hang over this generation in the way having been spliff keen hung over mine. But with far more hard evidence.
Until, eventually, a truce is called., because it affects a critical mass in senior positions.