Leader and government approval ratings and voting intention as a guide to general election results –

YBarddCwsc said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

A little bit, most LOTOs generally start of with good ratings usually caused by a higher number of DKs.

There's been only one LOTO who had consistently positive ratings throughout their tenure, most LOTOs who go on to become PM have ups and down.

He's doing better than most LOTOs at this point in the cycle of leader/satisfaction ratings but meh in VI scores.

I genuinely don't know how much pandemic era polling can be used to compare to previous eras.

SKS is looking old, and a bit dull. It is a real pity he stood, Labour did have much better options.

SKS seems to be following the Tony Blair picture-book on "How to Win a General Election?"

But, the thrill just isn't there, anymore.

It is the same moves, the same foreplay as Tony used, but no-one feels really excited by the prospect of precoital activity with a greying, stolid, almost sixty-year old, lawyer.

Hard not to forget, we could have had Lisa Nandy or Angela Rayner .... as LOTO

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/AndrewRTDavies/status/1362492372278530050?s=20

HYUFD said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Just checked, Ted Cruz is up for re-election in 2024, is it possible for him to run for the GOP nomination and hold his seat?

Given how close it was last time, his sole focus should be on Texas.

Answer to your question is Yes, unless TX law has changed recently.

Note that in 1960, Lyndon Johnson was on the Texas general election ballot twice, as candidate for re-election to US Senate AND as Democratic candidate for Vice President (as JFK's running mate). He was elected VP, so gave up senate seat.

In 1984, Lloyd Benson was also on the general election ballot twice in Lone Star State, running for re-election to US Senate and also for VP (on Dem ticket with Walter Mondale); since he was NOT elected VP, Benson stayed in the Senate.

Note that Texas law thus gives a sitting US Senator the chance of retaining their seat for another full term AND also running for President OR Vice President. LBJ won both elections, so could take his (obvious) choice. Lloyd Benson lost for VP (nationally AND in Texas) but was still able to retain his senate seat.

Ted has upset some locals by legging it to Cancun during the big freeze. But it's Texas, so I guess they'll give him a pass on that, and also on his contribution to the recent failed insurrection.

He may be a tosser, but he's their kind of tosser.

Beto O'Rourke came close to bouncing "Visit Cancun" Ted back in 2018.

Cruz could lose Texas for US Senate in 2024 for same reason that Trumpsky lost re-election in 2020: the asshole factor.

BUT maybe instead he'll be just what the Republican Party is seeking for President in 2024?

Of course, a couple of months ago, some PBers were saying that Mike Pence was a shoo-in for THAT nomination!

Without Trump Pence is ahead with Cruz 4th, 1% behind Haley.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1356836849533284352?s=20

If Trump runs again though he is miles ahead

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1361905464146075649?s=20

Anabobazina said:

YBarddCwsc said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

A little bit, most LOTOs generally start of with good ratings usually caused by a higher number of DKs.

There's been only one LOTO who had consistently positive ratings throughout their tenure, most LOTOs who go on to become PM have ups and down.

He's doing better than most LOTOs at this point in the cycle of leader/satisfaction ratings but meh in VI scores.

I genuinely don't know how much pandemic era polling can be used to compare to previous eras.

SKS is looking old, and a bit dull. It is a real pity he stood, Labour did have much better options.

SKS seems to be following the Tony Blair picture-book on "How to Win a General Election?"

But, the thrill just isn't there, anymore.

It is the same moves, the same foreplay as Tony used, but no-one feels really excited by the prospect of precoital activity with a greying, stolid, almost sixty-year old, lawyer.

Hard not to forget, we could have had Lisa Nandy or Angela Rayner .... as LOTO

Dr Rosena Allin-Khan MD is the one to watch.

Yokes said:

HYUFD said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Just checked, Ted Cruz is up for re-election in 2024, is it possible for him to run for the GOP nomination and hold his seat?

Given how close it was last time, his sole focus should be on Texas.

Answer to your question is Yes, unless TX law has changed recently.

Note that in 1960, Lyndon Johnson was on the Texas general election ballot twice, as candidate for re-election to US Senate AND as Democratic candidate for Vice President (as JFK's running mate). He was elected VP, so gave up senate seat.

In 1984, Lloyd Benson was also on the general election ballot twice in Lone Star State, running for re-election to US Senate and also for VP (on Dem ticket with Walter Mondale); since he was NOT elected VP, Benson stayed in the Senate.

Note that Texas law thus gives a sitting US Senator the chance of retaining their seat for another full term AND also running for President OR Vice President. LBJ won both elections, so could take his (obvious) choice. Lloyd Benson lost for VP (nationally AND in Texas) but was still able to retain his senate seat.

Ted has upset some locals by legging it to Cancun during the big freeze. But it's Texas, so I guess they'll give him a pass on that, and also on his contribution to the recent failed insurrection.

He may be a tosser, but he's their kind of tosser.

Beto O'Rourke came close to bouncing "Visit Cancun" Ted back in 2018.

Cruz could lose Texas for US Senate in 2024 for same reason that Trumpsky lost re-election in 2020: the asshole factor.

BUT maybe instead he'll be just what the Republican Party is seeking for President in 2024?

Of course, a couple of months ago, some PBers were saying that Mike Pence was a shoo-in for THAT nomination!

Without Trump Pence is ahead with Cruz 4th, 1% behind Haley.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1356836849533284352?s=20

If Trump runs again though he is miles ahead

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1361905464146075649?s=20

Haley is the best early bet. I think Trump is going to have other problems.

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Just checked, Ted Cruz is up for re-election in 2024, is it possible for him to run for the GOP nomination and hold his seat?

Given how close it was last time, his sole focus should be on Texas.

Answer to your question is Yes, unless TX law has changed recently.

Note that in 1960, Lyndon Johnson was on the Texas general election ballot twice, as candidate for re-election to US Senate AND as Democratic candidate for Vice President (as JFK's running mate). He was elected VP, so gave up senate seat.

In 1984, Lloyd Benson was also on the general election ballot twice in Lone Star State, running for re-election to US Senate and also for VP (on Dem ticket with Walter Mondale); since he was NOT elected VP, Benson stayed in the Senate.

Note that Texas law thus gives a sitting US Senator the chance of retaining their seat for another full term AND also running for President OR Vice President. LBJ won both elections, so could take his (obvious) choice. Lloyd Benson lost for VP (nationally AND in Texas) but was still able to retain his senate seat.

Ted has upset some locals by legging it to Cancun during the big freeze. But it's Texas, so I guess they'll give him a pass on that, and also on his contribution to the recent failed insurrection.

He may be a tosser, but he's their kind of tosser.

Beto O'Rourke came close to bouncing "Visit Cancun" Ted back in 2018.

Cruz could lose Texas for US Senate in 2024 for same reason that Trumpsky lost re-election in 2020: the asshole factor.

BUT maybe instead he'll be just what the Republican Party is seeking for President in 2024?

Of course, a couple of months ago, some PBers were saying that Mike Pence was a shoo-in for THAT nomination!

Mexicanpete said:

Anabobazina said:

YBarddCwsc said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

A little bit, most LOTOs generally start of with good ratings usually caused by a higher number of DKs.

There's been only one LOTO who had consistently positive ratings throughout their tenure, most LOTOs who go on to become PM have ups and down.

He's doing better than most LOTOs at this point in the cycle of leader/satisfaction ratings but meh in VI scores.

I genuinely don't know how much pandemic era polling can be used to compare to previous eras.

SKS is looking old, and a bit dull. It is a real pity he stood, Labour did have much better options.

SKS seems to be following the Tony Blair picture-book on "How to Win a General Election?"

But, the thrill just isn't there, anymore.

It is the same moves, the same foreplay as Tony used, but no-one feels really excited by the prospect of precoital activity with a greying, stolid, almost sixty-year old, lawyer.

Hard not to forget, we could have had Lisa Nandy or Angela Rayner .... as LOTO

Dr Rosena Allin-Khan MD is the one to watch.

Huh, Dr Hindsight? The Labour candidate who plageurised Boris' hilarious tribute to Subterranean Homesick Blues the week before he performed it.

Mexicanpete said:

YBarddCwsc said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

A little bit, most LOTOs generally start of with good ratings usually caused by a higher number of DKs.

There's been only one LOTO who had consistently positive ratings throughout their tenure, most LOTOs who go on to become PM have ups and down.

He's doing better than most LOTOs at this point in the cycle of leader/satisfaction ratings but meh in VI scores.

I genuinely don't know how much pandemic era polling can be used to compare to previous eras.

SKS is looking old, and a bit dull. It is a real pity he stood, Labour did have much better options.

SKS seems to be following the Tony Blair picture-book on "How to Win a General Election?"

But, the thrill just isn't there, anymore.

It is the same moves, the same foreplay as Tony used, but no-one feels really excited by the prospect of precoital activity with a greying, stolid, almost sixty-year old, lawyer.

Hard not to forget, we could have had Lisa Nandy or Angela Rayner .... as LOTO

Equally hard not to forget, we could have had Rebecca Long-Bailey or Richard Burgon...as LOTO

Or, had she not lost one of the World's safest Labour seats, Laura Pidcock.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mexicanpete said:

Anabobazina said:

YBarddCwsc said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

A little bit, most LOTOs generally start of with good ratings usually caused by a higher number of DKs.

There's been only one LOTO who had consistently positive ratings throughout their tenure, most LOTOs who go on to become PM have ups and down.

He's doing better than most LOTOs at this point in the cycle of leader/satisfaction ratings but meh in VI scores.

I genuinely don't know how much pandemic era polling can be used to compare to previous eras.

SKS is looking old, and a bit dull. It is a real pity he stood, Labour did have much better options.

SKS seems to be following the Tony Blair picture-book on "How to Win a General Election?"

But, the thrill just isn't there, anymore.

It is the same moves, the same foreplay as Tony used, but no-one feels really excited by the prospect of precoital activity with a greying, stolid, almost sixty-year old, lawyer.

Hard not to forget, we could have had Lisa Nandy or Angela Rayner .... as LOTO

Dr Rosena Allin-Khan MD is the one to watch.

Huh, Dr Hindsight? The Labour candidate who plageurised Boris' hilarious tribute to Subterranean Homesick Blues the week before he performed it.

It was Love Actually.

justin124 said:

Starmer seems far younger than the likes of Churchill- Attlee - Macmillan - Douglas-Home - Callaghan - or even Wilson during his second term.

another_richard said:

Has this, from the Guardian, been mentioned ?

Doctors and public health officials have pleaded with Germans to take up AstraZeneca Covid vaccines, AFP reports. German healthcare facilities have reported several hundred thousand vials sitting unused and rampant no-shows at scheduled appointments.

Officials in Italy, Austria and Bulgaria were also starting to signal some public resistance to the British vaccine, and France’s health minister, Olivier Véran, got the jab live on television to drum up support.

“If you are given the choice between AstraZeneca now or another vaccine in a few months, you should definitely take AstraZeneca now,” implored Carsten Watzl, general secretary of the German Society for Immunology.

I wonder how many deaths Hadelstwatt will be responsible for.

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/AndrewRTDavies/status/1362492372278530050?s=20

You seem to like RT. He's all yours, come and get him. We don't want him.

RT will gain seats from Labour in May

Paul would have gained seats from Labour too. I hate to say this but RT's seats will be courtesy of Johnson.

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Andy_Cooke said:

It's probably a bad idea and could potentially stoke up racial tensions, but I had a mad idea for a videa to promote BAME take-up of vaccination.

Start with news stories about rich and powerful people jumping the queue (like that casino owner who flew to the Yukon to pretend to be a native American to get the vaccine earlier, or politicians in some countries making sure they get vaccinated first).

Then have BAME people saying:

- "No, let some rich white guy have mine; I'll just go to the back of the queue."
- "No, I've fallen for the propaganda online that's meant to turn me off this, so someone richer can get further up the queue"
- "No, we shouldn't forget those poor white millionaires who want theirs sooner."
- "It's fine, I'll take my chance with slowly choking to death."

Finishing with a trusted BAME celebrity saying: "If you want to fall for it and give up your place in line, that's up to you. Me, well, when it's my turn - without jumping the queue - anyone gets in my way and they'll have footprints on them."

And words written on it: "Take what's yours. Take your shot."

Just update the Don't Die Of Ignorance AIDS campaign.

Another rare occasion when the Government got something exactly right in my opinion. Those adverts scared the bejesus out of me as single 20 year old. Probably the best advertising campaign I have ever seen.

So much so that I thought sex was intrinsically dangerous for most of the 1990s.

ydoethur said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/AndrewRTDavies/status/1362492372278530050?s=20

You seem to like RT. He's all yours, come and get him. We don't want him.

RT will gain seats from Labour in May

Paul would have gained seats from Labour too. I hate to say this but RT's seats will be courtesy of Johnson.

And since it’s impossible to see a route for him to gain power, he can promise whatever BS he likes.

I think we can all agree though the last sentence of his tweet is profoundly true. But it will still happen.

Leon said:

IanB2 said:

Guardian breaking: Doctors and public health officials have pleaded with Germans to take up AstraZeneca Covid vaccines against the coronavirus, AFP reports. German healthcare facilities have reported several hundred thousand vials sitting unused and rampant no-shows at scheduled appointments.

Officials in Italy, Austria and Bulgaria were also starting to signal some public resistance to the British vaccine, and France’s health minister, Olivier Véran, got the jab live on television to drum up support.

“If you are given the choice between AstraZeneca now or another vaccine in a few months, you should definitely take AstraZeneca now,” implored Carsten Watzl, general secretary of the German Society for Immunology.

The health minister, Jens Spahn, echoed the message, calling all three vaccines approved in the EU – AstraZeneca, BioNTech/Pfizer and Moderna – “safe and effective” despite varying levels of efficacy.

Fucking idiot French president, take a bow

HYUFD said:

Yokes said:

HYUFD said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Just checked, Ted Cruz is up for re-election in 2024, is it possible for him to run for the GOP nomination and hold his seat?

Given how close it was last time, his sole focus should be on Texas.

Answer to your question is Yes, unless TX law has changed recently.

Note that in 1960, Lyndon Johnson was on the Texas general election ballot twice, as candidate for re-election to US Senate AND as Democratic candidate for Vice President (as JFK's running mate). He was elected VP, so gave up senate seat.

In 1984, Lloyd Benson was also on the general election ballot twice in Lone Star State, running for re-election to US Senate and also for VP (on Dem ticket with Walter Mondale); since he was NOT elected VP, Benson stayed in the Senate.

Note that Texas law thus gives a sitting US Senator the chance of retaining their seat for another full term AND also running for President OR Vice President. LBJ won both elections, so could take his (obvious) choice. Lloyd Benson lost for VP (nationally AND in Texas) but was still able to retain his senate seat.

Ted has upset some locals by legging it to Cancun during the big freeze. But it's Texas, so I guess they'll give him a pass on that, and also on his contribution to the recent failed insurrection.

He may be a tosser, but he's their kind of tosser.

Beto O'Rourke came close to bouncing "Visit Cancun" Ted back in 2018.

Cruz could lose Texas for US Senate in 2024 for same reason that Trumpsky lost re-election in 2020: the asshole factor.

BUT maybe instead he'll be just what the Republican Party is seeking for President in 2024?

Of course, a couple of months ago, some PBers were saying that Mike Pence was a shoo-in for THAT nomination!

Without Trump Pence is ahead with Cruz 4th, 1% behind Haley.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1356836849533284352?s=20

If Trump runs again though he is miles ahead

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1361905464146075649?s=20

Haley is the best early bet. I think Trump is going to have other problems.

Hayley might be the best bet to win the general, she has near zero chance of winning the primaries in my view

TheScreamingEagles said:

Can someone explain this joke to me please as I genuinely don't understand it.

Q: Apparently only one shot in six of the Sputnik V vaccinations work.

A: It's Russian rollout.

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/AndrewRTDavies/status/1362492372278530050?s=20

You seem to like RT. He's all yours, come and get him. We don't want him.

RT will gain seats from Labour in May

Paul would have gained seats from Labour too. I hate to say this but RT's seats will be courtesy of Johnson.

It will be both, while I expect the Tories will lose seats in the county elections in May, even if they stay ahead overall, Khan will be re elected in London and Labour will gain Assembly seats, Labour could gain the WM Mayoralty and take second from the Tories in Scotland, RT I think will gain seats in the Senedd.

If so the Welsh Tories under his leadership should be able to claim the best results for the Tories of the night

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/AndrewRTDavies/status/1362492372278530050?s=20

You seem to like RT. He's all yours, come and get him. We don't want him.

RT will gain seats from Labour in May

Paul would have gained seats from Labour too. I hate to say this but RT's seats will be courtesy of Johnson.

It will be both, while I expect the Tories will lose seats in the county elections in May, even if they stay ahead overall, Khan will be re elected in London and Labour will gain Assembly seats, Labour could gain the WM Mayoralty and take second from the Tories in Scotland, RT I think will gain seats in the Senedd.

If so the Welsh Tories under his leadership should be able to claim the best results for the Tories of the night

Believe me, you are the only voter I know who rates RT, and you don't have a vote in this election. I suspect RT doubts his own ability to the point where he will probably vote PC.

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/AndrewRTDavies/status/1362492372278530050?s=20

You seem to like RT. He's all yours, come and get him. We don't want him.

RT will gain seats from Labour in May

Paul would have gained seats from Labour too. I hate to say this but RT's seats will be courtesy of Johnson.

It will be both, while I expect the Tories will lose seats in the county elections in May, even if they stay ahead overall, Khan will be re elected in London and Labour will gain Assembly seats, Labour could gain the WM Mayoralty and take second from the Tories in Scotland, RT I think will gain seats in the Senedd.

If so the Welsh Tories under his leadership should be able to claim the best results for the Tories of the night

Believe me, you are the only voter I know who rates RT, and you don't have a vote in this election. I suspect RT doubts his own ability to the point where he will probably vote PC.

RT I predict will have the best performance for any Tory leader in a Senedd or Welsh Assembly election in May since it was founded in 1999, he is certainly better than Rod Richards and Nick Bourne were.

ydoethur said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

rottenborough said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1362441228097368065?s=20
https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1362441488781766656?s=20

So the one body that wasn't stuffed with SNP and Green members (an accidental omission one assumes), votes that there is no reason why documents that may be published legally, may not be published legally. Surprise surprise.

Am I the only one who is completely lost with all this?

Let me try and help.

1. This committee was set up to investigate why the initial complaints procedure (prior to the police case) against Alex Salmond was so mishandled that the Scottish Government ended up having to pay him £500,000 of taxpayers' money. It is lead by an SNP MSP, and has on it an SNP/Green majority of 5 to 4.

2. Alex Salmond's allegation (made very powerfully it must be said) is that the complaints were deliberately orchestrated, pushed, exaggerated, and to some extent invented, with the intention of destroying his reputation and preventing him ever returning to front-line politics. He also alleges that Nicola Sturgeon misled the SP about the nature of her meetings with him.

3. Salmond has submitted evidence of the above to the enquiry, but they have thus far refused to publish it (not parts of it - all of it), so it cannot form part of their report. They have also warned Salmond that if his verbal evidence strays into proscribed areas, he could be subject to criminal prosecution - without actually telling him what areas to stay clear of. The refusal to publish is based on a court order by Lady Dorrian, trial judge in Salmond's sexual assault case, protecting (I think) the complainants' identities.

4. The Spectator brought a legal case to modify this court order and prove that Salmond's evidence could indeed be published. Heard by Lady Dorrian, who stated that the Scottish Government's interpretation of her order to prevent Salmond's evidence being published was 'absurd'. She amended her court order to allow publication.

5. Despite this, and the evidence being published by the Spectator, the enquiry still refused to publish the evidence, but did agree to hand the issue to the SP procedural committee for adjudication.

6. This committee has now declared it is legal to publish. Salmond will now be able to testify without threat of criminal proceedings against him.

They threatened him with prosecution over verbal evidence to a parliamentary committee?

I thought that in itself would be illegal as such occasions are privileged?

Certainly Westminster has got very hot and bothered when threats are made to witnesses in their inquiries.

IanB2 said:

Five minutes until atmosphere entry.

Philip_Thompson said:

IanB2 said:

Five minutes until atmosphere entry.

Roughly what time is expected touchdown? How long from atmosphere entry to landing?

Philip_Thompson said:

IanB2 said:

Five minutes until atmosphere entry.

Roughly what time is expected touchdown? How long from atmosphere entry to landing?

Sandpit said:

Good luck and godspeed to the Mars rover Perseverance. Now for the difficult bit!

IanB2 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

IanB2 said:

Five minutes until atmosphere entry.

Roughly what time is expected touchdown? How long from atmosphere entry to landing?

Just minutes

Only 40% of previous entries have successfully landed

Philip_Thompson said:

IanB2 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

IanB2 said:

Five minutes until atmosphere entry.

Roughly what time is expected touchdown? How long from atmosphere entry to landing?

Just minutes

Only 40% of previous entries have successfully landed

A record that will have to improve long before we start sending people no doubt!

Philip_Thompson said:

ThomasNashe said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/evolvepolitics/status/1362495613603094531

Pronouns can reveal so much!

What's wrong with those pronouns?

I'm not a linguist but to me they seem entirely grammatically correct. I don't understand which other pronouns would be better.

They = the subject referred to (two subjects both referred to separately as they)
Our = collective, everyone

That's the right grammar isn't it?

ydoethur said:

Stuartinromford said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, in the run up to the 2015 GE I did a piece which pointed out that the party that led on both the leadership ratings and best to run the economy metric won the general election.

The only curio was 1997 where the Tories led on the economic question but trailed Blair so much on the leadership to be odd, especially after Black Wednesday.

I might update that piece.

Gross or net leadership ratings? Or preferred PM?

Currently both leaders can claim to be in the lead depending upon how you define lead.

Net satisfaction ratings.

So you think Starmer is tanking at the moment rather than holding steady?

A little bit, most LOTOs generally start of with good ratings usually caused by a higher number of DKs.

There's been only one LOTO who had consistently positive ratings throughout their tenure, most LOTOs who go on to become PM have ups and down.

He's doing better than most LOTOs at this point in the cycle of leader/satisfaction ratings but meh in VI scores.

I genuinely don't know how much pandemic era polling can be used to compare to previous eras.

I agree, compared to recent leaders of the opposition Starmer is certainly doing better than Hague and IDS and Miliband and Corbyn and Foot were at this stage certainly.

At the moment while he is clearly nowhere near Blair levels, he is doing at least as well as Howard, Kinnock and Cameron were just under a year in post.

He's in the category of "Hmm. I suppose they'll do." Which is roughly where Thatcher was just before the Winter of Discontent, or Cameron just before the GFC. Net negative, but not by much.

So one of two things happens from here.

One is that the Johnson government is a success. In which case, ghastly as they are, they will deservedly win. I probably still won't vote for them, but hey ho.

The other is that the Johnson government is a failure. In which case, Starmer has got enough "Oh, OK then." to get into No 10. The point is that failed LotOs don't even have that. Think about EdM or IDS. (Actually don't. It might give you nightmares.) If Johnsonism fails, no amount of brio will save him, and being boring might well be a benefit.

I think the key advantage Starmer has is nobody hates him.

He may be boring and not so far dazzlingly effective, but he’s not obviously deranged, stupid, or nasty.

There won’t be any room for a ‘vote Tory to keep Labour out‘ campaign as there was in 2017 and 2019.

Whether that will make enough of a difference to let him regain ground I don’t know.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

IanB2 said:

Guardian breaking: Doctors and public health officials have pleaded with Germans to take up AstraZeneca Covid vaccines against the coronavirus, AFP reports. German healthcare facilities have reported several hundred thousand vials sitting unused and rampant no-shows at scheduled appointments.

Officials in Italy, Austria and Bulgaria were also starting to signal some public resistance to the British vaccine, and France’s health minister, Olivier Véran, got the jab live on television to drum up support.

“If you are given the choice between AstraZeneca now or another vaccine in a few months, you should definitely take AstraZeneca now,” implored Carsten Watzl, general secretary of the German Society for Immunology.

The health minister, Jens Spahn, echoed the message, calling all three vaccines approved in the EU – AstraZeneca, BioNTech/Pfizer and Moderna – “safe and effective” despite varying levels of efficacy.

Fucking idiot French president, take a bow

Don't forget German equivalent of FT....

sarissa said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/htscotpol/status/1362463028625760256?s=21

Interestingly, Andy Wightman MSP, the committee member who has taken the most stick for blocking the Salmond submission, is also a member of the SPCB......

Having recently resigned from the Scottish Greens, he is currently assessing his chances of standing as in independent (or for another party?) in the regional list.

isam said:

YBarddCwsc said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

A little bit, most LOTOs generally start of with good ratings usually caused by a higher number of DKs.

There's been only one LOTO who had consistently positive ratings throughout their tenure, most LOTOs who go on to become PM have ups and down.

He's doing better than most LOTOs at this point in the cycle of leader/satisfaction ratings but meh in VI scores.

I genuinely don't know how much pandemic era polling can be used to compare to previous eras.

SKS is looking old, and a bit dull. It is a real pity he stood, Labour did have much better options.

SKS seems to be following the Tony Blair picture-book on "How to Win a General Election?"

But, the thrill just isn't there, anymore.

It is the same moves, the same foreplay as Tony used, but no-one feels really excited by the prospect of precoital activity with a greying, stolid, almost sixty-year old, lawyer.

Hard not to forget, we could have had Lisa Nandy or Angela Rayner .... as LOTO

Jess Phillips - a mix of Starmer politics and Corbyn passion. I think that is what Labour need

ThomasNashe said:

Philip_Thompson said:

ThomasNashe said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/evolvepolitics/status/1362495613603094531

Pronouns can reveal so much!

What's wrong with those pronouns?

I'm not a linguist but to me they seem entirely grammatically correct. I don't understand which other pronouns would be better.

They = the subject referred to (two subjects both referred to separately as they)
Our = collective, everyone

That's the right grammar isn't it?

I’d suggest if he didn’t want to imply a group of outsiders claiming rights to participate in something that doesn’t belong to them, the sentence would have been constructed rather more carefully - and in particular ‘our’ would be seen to attach itself to BAME rather than elections.

IanB2 said:

First image appears from the engineering camera -:no sign yet of any aliens with ‘welcome to Mars’ placards

justin124 said:

Mexicanpete said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

BBC News - Covid: Three in 10 care home staff in England not vaccinated

In London, only 52% of staff have had a jab, rising to 75% in the South West.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56112622

Fifteen million vaccination target smashed. That is the only stat that counts.

If by May we are looking at total Covid deaths of circa 140,000 - twice civilian deaths during World War 2- it will not look good for Johnson . I suspect that we are now at peak vaccine boost re- poll ratings - though well below the ratings seen in April 2000.

Black_Rook said:

Leon said:

Flatlander said:

IanB2 said:

Global travel site Big 7 Travel has released the official 2021 list of the ’25 Best UK Staycations’; the top ten, in order:

Cornwall – England
The Lake District – England
Yorkshire Dales – England
Edinburgh – Scotland
Loch Lomond – Scotland
Isle of Wight – England
Norfolk Broads – England
Bath – England
Ballycastle – Northern Ireland
Manchester – England

6. Isle of Wight

This island off England’s southeast coast is famous for many things, from its stunning sandy beaches to its vibrant local culture and rich prehistoric history. One of the island’s biggest claims to fames is its plethora of fossils that have led to the discovery of more than 25 different dinosaurs that called Isle of Wight home in their day. For more recent history, there’s Queen Victoria’s royal former residence and Italian Renaissance dream in East Cowes, the Osborne House. And for a break from the tranquil sandy beaches, head to The Needles rock formation off the west end of the island.


11 - Cotswolds
12 - Snowdonia
13 - Scilly Isles
14 - Anglesey
15 - London (!)
16 - N Yorks moors
17 - Pembroke coast
18 - Orkney
19 - Brighton
20 - Skye
21 - Norwich (?)
22 - Inverness
23 - Cardiff
24 - Derry
25 - Oxford

Excellent. They've missed off the Hebrides (excepting Skye, and that no longer counts), Sutherland and 90% of the Highlands.

I hope everybody else does too.

They've also missed the east of England: East Anglia. Last summer I did an AMAZING roadtrip with the kidz, from spooky Essex estuaries (Osea island) to quaint, lovely Maldon, through gorgeous Lavenham and poetic Bury St Edmunds, via Constable country, to a few nights in Cambridge (arguably the most beautiful small city in the world, and also, maybe, the most fascinating)

Eastern England is weirdly neglected. Long may it remain so. Marvellous stuff. And great food all the way.

The East tends to be conflated in most people's minds with the Fens: a billiard table flat, dull as ditchwater landscape filled with nothing but thousands and thousands of potato and sugar beet fields (although even the Fens have Ely, which is lovely and well worth a day trip if you've never been.) But yes, if that puts a load of potential visitors off then so much the better. More room for the rest of us to breathe.

IanB2 said:

Sandpit said:

IanB2 said:

First image appears from the engineering camera -:no sign yet of any aliens with ‘welcome to Mars’ placards

Wot, no aliens?

They wouldn’t want to catch COVID from the surface of the robot, anyway.

sarissa said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/htscotpol/status/1362463028625760256?s=21

Interestingly, Andy Wightman MSP, the committee member who has taken the most stick for blocking the Salmond submission, is also a member of the SPCB......

Having recently resigned from the Scottish Greens, he is currently assessing his chances of standing as in independent (or for another party?) in the regional list.

Yokes said:

HYUFD said:

Yokes said:

HYUFD said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Just checked, Ted Cruz is up for re-election in 2024, is it possible for him to run for the GOP nomination and hold his seat?

Given how close it was last time, his sole focus should be on Texas.

Answer to your question is Yes, unless TX law has changed recently.

Note that in 1960, Lyndon Johnson was on the Texas general election ballot twice, as candidate for re-election to US Senate AND as Democratic candidate for Vice President (as JFK's running mate). He was elected VP, so gave up senate seat.

In 1984, Lloyd Benson was also on the general election ballot twice in Lone Star State, running for re-election to US Senate and also for VP (on Dem ticket with Walter Mondale); since he was NOT elected VP, Benson stayed in the Senate.

Note that Texas law thus gives a sitting US Senator the chance of retaining their seat for another full term AND also running for President OR Vice President. LBJ won both elections, so could take his (obvious) choice. Lloyd Benson lost for VP (nationally AND in Texas) but was still able to retain his senate seat.

Ted has upset some locals by legging it to Cancun during the big freeze. But it's Texas, so I guess they'll give him a pass on that, and also on his contribution to the recent failed insurrection.

He may be a tosser, but he's their kind of tosser.

Beto O'Rourke came close to bouncing "Visit Cancun" Ted back in 2018.

Cruz could lose Texas for US Senate in 2024 for same reason that Trumpsky lost re-election in 2020: the asshole factor.

BUT maybe instead he'll be just what the Republican Party is seeking for President in 2024?

Of course, a couple of months ago, some PBers were saying that Mike Pence was a shoo-in for THAT nomination!

Without Trump Pence is ahead with Cruz 4th, 1% behind Haley.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1356836849533284352?s=20

If Trump runs again though he is miles ahead

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1361905464146075649?s=20

Haley is the best early bet. I think Trump is going to have other problems.

Hayley might be the best bet to win the general, she has near zero chance of winning the primaries in my view

I'd not be so sure. Haley can hit the populist button ok without the Jim Jones cultishness and I suspect the GOP as PtP points out below is going to steer itself back onto somewhat less chaotic ground. Its strategy to do that means getting rid of the Trump family and a few others. I think we have possibly over estimated the Trump factor especially as he gets into trouble elsewhere and if he gets into diffs, his family will go with him. There is still a big slice of that GOP vote that isn't in the Trump cult and will make a choice on the candidate. Those that are in that cult, are just as likely to be disillusioned as organising to stop anyone they don't like.

There are ifs and buts in that analysis there but that's not surprising. |You can see Trump as a direction or an aberration. Right now I'd punt that's its an aberration.