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Leader and government approval ratings and voting intention as a guide to general election results –
Leader and government approval ratings and voting intention as a guide to general election results – politicalbetting.com
Some posters to this site have argued that leader or government approval ratings can be a better guide to general election results than the voting intention question, if not immediately before the vote, then early in the Parliament or in mid-term. I have been meaning for some time to put this to the test. I have used the IPSOS-MORI opinion poll and approval ratings data, which goes back to 1977, covering 11 general elections.
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from case data
From hospitalisation data
So gross approval does better than net approval at all intervals bar one?
https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/advice-and-guidance/2017/01/flag-flying/documents/flag-flying-guidance/flag-flying-guidance/govscot:document/Scottish+Government+flag+flying+guidance+2021.pdf?forceDownload=true#:~:text=Usually the second Sunday of,Remembrance Sunday is 14th November.&text=Please note that due to,guidance will be updated accordingly.
That final table is one to cut out and keep, so to speak, because as we are now around three years out from the next GE, over the next months and years an awful lot of bollocks will be posted about what this, that or the other approval rating means and we will be able to refer to your table and dispel the myths.
Is the document this links to by any chance an elaborate spoof?
Just about, but really on such a small sample size and with R2s below 0.5 for all except the 3-year one, the difference is nugatory.
https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1362441488781766656?s=20
Scotland's out of Europe but can fly the EU Council of Europe flag.
Scotland's in the UK but doesn't need to fly the UK flag.
Scotland can just cosplay as an independent EU nation without needing to bother with a messy referendum.
Definitely a hint of an uptick / levelling off.
https://twitter.com/EuroBriefing/status/1362385131164622848?s=20
There's been yet more BS in the European press today about AstraZeneca and their contracts with the UK.
Obviously it May not always apply.
merely to answer Doug's question rather than giving any opinion on Sturgeon's claimed instructions. Yep there are rules - but in good old British tradition they are local planning rules rather than anything more national.
Basically there are a set of flags that can be flown without needing planning permission - national and regional flags and the flags of organisations the UK is a member of. All other flags count as advertising banners and so need planning permission.
I suspect that now we are no longer a member a strict interpretation would say that flying the EU flag is not allowed with explicit planning permission. Though why anyone should be so exercised by it I don't know.
https://www.theukrules.co.uk/rules/legal/flags/index.html
Two Canada-based researchers on Wednesday urged governments to delay administering the second dose of Pfizer Inc’s COVID-19 vaccine, which they said had an efficacy of 92.6% after the first dose, as it was not significantly beneficial in the short term.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-pfizer-idUSKBN2AI0EC
I have once voted for Farage to be ejected from a Parliament.
Like a reality TV show when it flips between "vote to evict" and "vote to save".
Do you see the difference?
Or maybe folk make their minds up earlier than we think. They then waver a bit on and off, before reverting to their earlier position.
Its possible at least.
But they can fly the Council of Europe flag without permission.
They just so happen to be the same flag.
https://twitter.com/DineshDSouza/status/1362433079885848580
Ted Cruz really is a man who keeps on giving.
Cases have definitely flatlined here in the flatlands.
So I'm not surprised we are only finding out now that other dosage patterns may be better or at least equally efficient.
My point in relation to the flag issue is that surely this seems like a weird misstep from Sturgeon that alienates some of the no leaning voters she needs to win over.
Either that or SNP tensions are so great she’s chucking any old red meat out
What Cruz has done is the height of folly on so many levels I struggle to believe even he thought it was a good idea.
Not that I’m terribly sorry he’s destroyed himself like this, because he’s not a good thing, but it is still extraordinarily tin eared.
1. This committee was set up to investigate why the initial complaints procedure (prior to the police case) against Alex Salmond was so mishandled that the Scottish Government ended up having to pay him £500,000 of taxpayers' money. It is lead by an SNP MSP, and has on it an SNP/Green majority of 5 to 4.
2. Alex Salmond's allegation (made very powerfully it must be said) is that the complaints were deliberately orchestrated, pushed, exaggerated, and to some extent invented, with the intention of destroying his reputation and preventing him ever returning to front-line politics. He also alleges that Nicola Sturgeon misled the SP about the nature of her meetings with him.
3. Salmond has submitted evidence of the above to the enquiry, but they have thus far refused to publish it (not parts of it - all of it), so it cannot form part of their report. They have also warned Salmond that if his verbal evidence strays into proscribed areas, he could be subject to criminal prosecution - without actually telling him what areas to stay clear of. The refusal to publish is based on a court order by Lady Dorrian, trial judge in Salmond's sexual assault case, protecting (I think) the complainants' identities.
4. The Spectator brought a legal case to modify this court order and prove that Salmond's evidence could indeed be published. Heard by Lady Dorrian, who stated that the Scottish Government's interpretation of her order to prevent Salmond's evidence being published was 'absurd'. She amended her court order to allow publication.
5. Despite this, and the evidence being published by the Spectator, the enquiry still refused to publish the evidence, but did agree to hand the issue to the SP procedural committee for adjudication.
6. This committee has now declared it is legal to publish. Salmond will now be able to testify without threat of criminal proceedings against him.
It was a big call by the U.K. authorities to extend the gap, but it does now seem like they called it right.
I thought that in itself would be illegal as such occasions are privileged?
Certainly Westminster has got very hot and bothered when threats are made to witnesses in their inquiries.
Good header, and well done. You are though 'fishing'! It's not reasonable to support a hypothesis that you have arrived at with the same data that caused you to to make the assertion.
So I don't have to.
He should of course do the opposite and let her fly whatever flags she likes.
The question is - is looking at leadership polling in combination with raw opinion poll lead likely to give you a better idea of an outcome of a general election than just looking at the raw opinion poll lead alone. I think it does, but Fishing's analysis isn't specified to test this.
It would be interesting to see the result if Fishing repeated the analysis with the gross or net "PM leader over Opp leader approval" margin AVERAGED in combination (either 1:1 or in a different ratio) with the "Gvt opinion poll lead". Would it give an improvement on the R squared than that obtained for the "Gvt opinion poll lead" alone?
You should be flattered I'm interested in you. Other posters will be jealous.
@DavidL are you able to help us here?
Start with news stories about rich and powerful people jumping the queue (like that casino owner who flew to the Yukon to pretend to be a native American to get the vaccine earlier, or politicians in some countries making sure they get vaccinated first).
Then have BAME people saying:
- "No, let some rich white guy have mine; I'll just go to the back of the queue."
- "No, I've fallen for the propaganda online that's meant to turn me off this, so someone richer can get further up the queue"
- "No, we shouldn't forget those poor white millionaires who want theirs sooner."
- "It's fine, I'll take my chance with slowly choking to death."
Finishing with a trusted BAME celebrity saying: "If you want to fall for it and give up your place in line, that's up to you. Me, well, when it's my turn - without jumping the queue - anyone gets in my way and they'll have footprints on them."
And words written on it: "Take what's yours. Take your shot."
https://thehill.com/homenews/news/539407-ivanka-trump-wont-challenge-rubio-for-his-senate-seat-in-2022-report
But yes I am an English nationalist, I don't hide that nor is there a contradiction.
Everyone is a nationalist to some degree. The only question is where you put the nation. There is absolutely nothing wrong with nationalism whatsoever and most "sins" supposedly to do with nationalism are actually about imperialism, I am not an imperialist.
It is motherfucking gold.
(Sorry for the potty mouth.)
https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/1362454568198680580?s=20
https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/1362457017827414016?s=20
I think the 0.9 correlation for the pre-election opinion poll is pretty clear, though. Without knowing anything else, that's the one you'd expect to have the closest correlation, and a very good one, and that's what we get.
We can only assume it is because he has Asperger's
He is delighted by this news
His Mum wants to know when its her turn