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Leader and government approval ratings and voting intention as a guide to general election results –

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  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    IanB2 said:

    Guardian breaking: Doctors and public health officials have pleaded with Germans to take up AstraZeneca Covid vaccines against the coronavirus, AFP reports. German healthcare facilities have reported several hundred thousand vials sitting unused and rampant no-shows at scheduled appointments.

    Officials in Italy, Austria and Bulgaria were also starting to signal some public resistance to the British vaccine, and France’s health minister, Olivier Véran, got the jab live on television to drum up support.

    “If you are given the choice between AstraZeneca now or another vaccine in a few months, you should definitely take AstraZeneca now,” implored Carsten Watzl, general secretary of the German Society for Immunology.

    The health minister, Jens Spahn, echoed the message, calling all three vaccines approved in the EU – AstraZeneca, BioNTech/Pfizer and Moderna – “safe and effective” despite varying levels of efficacy.

    How did that possibly happen.....its as if high profile individuals and media outlets have been reporting that its a shit vaccine based on pseudo-science.
    It is almost like the EU hired Andrew Wakefield to be in the charge of the vaccine rollout.
    Ah, I see someone else has already spotted the "EU citizens running in terror from the Oxford jab" story.

    So, they don't have their shots, the continental lockdowns last longer and more of them die.

    At the end of all this somebody should ask people like Macron and that tit from that German newspaper whether they might, perhaps, regret some of the rot that they've come out with. It's arguably worse than Trump's bleach remarks, which were, at least, transparently ridiculous.
    Sadly, it's probably more important to them to sledge the UK and protect political myths about the EU, than save a few thousand lives.

    They'd probably use confirmation bias to convince themselves the "cost" was worth it versus the many more lives that they suspect would be lost if the EU collapsed.
    What's amazing is the number of people who even now are convinced that the UK's success so far is just some kind of fluke or illusion and the EU will catch up and overtake us before long. It's a complete refusal to accept reality.
    There is also a certain strand of opinion that is completely desperate for the EU to succeed and the UK to fail - and the bigger the contrast the better. For them, the present situation must be very hard to bear. A bit like how it must've been to be a member of the Corbyn Left the morning after the 2019 General Election - I think for some people it doesn't compute, and the response is to retreat into complete denial (and even fantasy, as per that risible commentary penned by that French hack that people were laughing at the other day,) as a self-defence mechanism.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,204
    Takeup in my area for over 70s is at 99.5% (of the 2018 population estimate).
  • IanB2 said:

    Katy Balls: Once the impact of the vaccines is visible, MPs are banking on a shift in public opinion. “Once the over-50s are done,” says one, “the political room gets small for the prime minister. People will go about their business.” If Johnson deviates far from his original aim of a scientific cavalry stopping the NHS from being overwhelmed, he will have a lockdown rebellion on his hands.

    I think the public will make the decision for Johnson what ever the SAGE people are muttering in his ear. Once over 50s are done there will be so much boozy mixing between households that he may as well open the pubs.

    People have had enough imho.
  • IanB2 said:

    Guardian breaking: Doctors and public health officials have pleaded with Germans to take up AstraZeneca Covid vaccines against the coronavirus, AFP reports. German healthcare facilities have reported several hundred thousand vials sitting unused and rampant no-shows at scheduled appointments.

    Officials in Italy, Austria and Bulgaria were also starting to signal some public resistance to the British vaccine, and France’s health minister, Olivier Véran, got the jab live on television to drum up support.

    “If you are given the choice between AstraZeneca now or another vaccine in a few months, you should definitely take AstraZeneca now,” implored Carsten Watzl, general secretary of the German Society for Immunology.

    The health minister, Jens Spahn, echoed the message, calling all three vaccines approved in the EU – AstraZeneca, BioNTech/Pfizer and Moderna – “safe and effective” despite varying levels of efficacy.

    How did that possibly happen.....its as if high profile individuals and media outlets have been reporting that its a shit vaccine based on pseudo-science.
    It is almost like the EU hired Andrew Wakefield to be in the charge of the vaccine rollout.
    Ah, I see someone else has already spotted the "EU citizens running in terror from the Oxford jab" story.

    So, they don't have their shots, the continental lockdowns last longer and more of them die.

    At the end of all this somebody should ask people like Macron and that tit from that German newspaper whether they might, perhaps, regret some of the rot that they've come out with. It's arguably worse than Trump's bleach remarks, which were, at least, transparently ridiculous.
    Sadly, it's probably more important to them to sledge the UK and protect political myths about the EU, than save a few thousand lives.

    They'd probably use confirmation bias to convince themselves the "cost" was worth it versus the many more lives that they suspect would be lost if the EU collapsed.
    What's amazing is the number of people who even now are convinced that the UK's success so far is just some kind of fluke or illusion and the EU will catch up and overtake us before long. It's a complete refusal to accept reality.
    The danger (to a number of EU politicians’ election chances) will be when that line becomes completely unsustainable. It’s mad to try and spin some of these lines.
  • IanB2 said:

    Global travel site Big 7 Travel has released the official 2021 list of the ’25 Best UK Staycations’; the top ten, in order:

    Cornwall – England
    The Lake District – England
    Yorkshire Dales – England
    Edinburgh – Scotland
    Loch Lomond – Scotland
    Isle of Wight – England
    Norfolk Broads – England
    Bath – England
    Ballycastle – Northern Ireland
    Manchester – England

    6. Isle of Wight

    This island off England’s southeast coast is famous for many things, from its stunning sandy beaches to its vibrant local culture and rich prehistoric history. One of the island’s biggest claims to fames is its plethora of fossils that have led to the discovery of more than 25 different dinosaurs that called Isle of Wight home in their day. For more recent history, there’s Queen Victoria’s royal former residence and Italian Renaissance dream in East Cowes, the Osborne House. And for a break from the tranquil sandy beaches, head to The Needles rock formation off the west end of the island.


    11 - Cotswolds
    12 - Snowdonia
    13 - Scilly Isles
    14 - Anglesey
    15 - London (!)
    16 - N Yorks moors
    17 - Pembroke coast
    18 - Orkney
    19 - Brighton
    20 - Skye
    21 - Norwich (?)
    22 - Inverness
    23 - Cardiff
    24 - Derry
    25 - Oxford

    I’ve as much chance of winning this one as I have of fixing official season dates, but for the last time a staycation is staying in your own home and taking day trips. A holiday in Cornwall, assuming you don’t live there, is called a holiday.
    Derry deserves to be higher, especially if the weather is fine and you can get there and back in a day!
  • Just checked, Ted Cruz is up for re-election in 2024, is it possible for him to run for the GOP nomination and hold his seat?

    Given how close it was last time, his sole focus should be on Texas.

    Answer to your question is Yes, unless TX law has changed recently.

    Note that in 1960, Lyndon Johnson was on the Texas general election ballot twice, as candidate for re-election to US Senate AND as Democratic candidate for Vice President (as JFK's running mate). He was elected VP, so gave up senate seat.

    In 1984, Lloyd Benson was also on the general election ballot twice in Lone Star State, running for re-election to US Senate and also for VP (on Dem ticket with Walter Mondale); since he was NOT elected VP, Benson stayed in the Senate.

    Note that Texas law thus gives a sitting US Senator the chance of retaining their seat for another full term AND also running for President OR Vice President. LBJ won both elections, so could take his (obvious) choice. Lloyd Benson lost for VP (nationally AND in Texas) but was still able to retain his senate seat.
    ERROR ALERT- Think I screwed up re: Lloyd Benson, am doing some further research!
    This brings me to another question I kept meaning to ask during the post election period.

    What happens to Kamala Harris's seat now she is VP. Does there have to be an election or is she still the sitting Senator as well as being VP?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,421
    Come back opinion polls all is forgiven!

    Thanks to Fishing for a very interesting set of results, even if one does have to be very careful with small sample sizes.

    I always prefer in such situations to see scatter plots of the raw data, as it can give one a feel as to the reliability of the computed statistics.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    Can someone explain this joke to me please as I genuinely don't understand it.

    Q: Apparently only one shot in six of the Sputnik V vaccinations work.

    A: It's Russian rollout.

    A pun on “Roulette”?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    IanB2 said:

    Katy Balls: Once the impact of the vaccines is visible, MPs are banking on a shift in public opinion. “Once the over-50s are done,” says one, “the political room gets small for the prime minister. People will go about their business.” If Johnson deviates far from his original aim of a scientific cavalry stopping the NHS from being overwhelmed, he will have a lockdown rebellion on his hands.

    Firstly, I have my doubts about this supposed shift in public opinion because so many people are happy being paid for doing nothing.

    Secondly, note how the MPs are beholden to public opinion rather than making the decisions for themselves. They are not leading the country they are following the ignorant.
  • IanB2 said:

    Katy Balls: Once the impact of the vaccines is visible, MPs are banking on a shift in public opinion. “Once the over-50s are done,” says one, “the political room gets small for the prime minister. People will go about their business.” If Johnson deviates far from his original aim of a scientific cavalry stopping the NHS from being overwhelmed, he will have a lockdown rebellion on his hands.

    I think the public will make the decision for Johnson what ever the SAGE people are muttering in his ear. Once over 50s are done there will be so much boozy mixing between households that he may as well open the pubs.

    People have had enough imho.
    Obviously we are in different areas but I certainly don't get that impression where I am or amongst any of my wider friends and relations. They are all very much of the view that they should continue to follow lockdown until everyone who needs to be has been jabbed.
  • Just checked, Ted Cruz is up for re-election in 2024, is it possible for him to run for the GOP nomination and hold his seat?

    Given how close it was last time, his sole focus should be on Texas.

    Answer to your question is Yes, unless TX law has changed recently.

    Note that in 1960, Lyndon Johnson was on the Texas general election ballot twice, as candidate for re-election to US Senate AND as Democratic candidate for Vice President (as JFK's running mate). He was elected VP, so gave up senate seat.

    In 1984, Lloyd Benson was also on the general election ballot twice in Lone Star State, running for re-election to US Senate and also for VP (on Dem ticket with Walter Mondale); since he was NOT elected VP, Benson stayed in the Senate.

    Note that Texas law thus gives a sitting US Senator the chance of retaining their seat for another full term AND also running for President OR Vice President. LBJ won both elections, so could take his (obvious) choice. Lloyd Benson lost for VP (nationally AND in Texas) but was still able to retain his senate seat.
    ERROR ALERT- Think I screwed up re: Lloyd Benson, am doing some further research!
    This brings me to another question I kept meaning to ask during the post election period.

    What happens to Kamala Harris's seat now she is VP. Does there have to be an election or is she still the sitting Senator as well as being VP?
    A replacement is appointed:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/kamala-harris-senate-seat-california-vice-president-b1788845.html
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,285
    edited February 2021

    ydoethur said:

    Can someone explain this joke to me please as I genuinely don't understand it.

    Q: Apparently only one shot in six of the Sputnik V vaccinations work.

    A: It's Russian rollout.

    Russian roulette.

    Please tell me that was a windup.

    (Admittedly, it was not as good as that Mascarpone one you didn’t get a while back.)
    No genuine.
    A Russian friend of mine once told me that Russian roulette is not nearly as dangerous as simple maths makes it if you use a Russian revolver. Give it a good spin and the weight of the bullet will cause the chamber with the round in it to end up at the bottom, away from the hammer.

    For what I hope are obvious reasons don't try this!
  • Just checked, Ted Cruz is up for re-election in 2024, is it possible for him to run for the GOP nomination and hold his seat?

    Given how close it was last time, his sole focus should be on Texas.

    Answer to your question is Yes, unless TX law has changed recently.

    Note that in 1960, Lyndon Johnson was on the Texas general election ballot twice, as candidate for re-election to US Senate AND as Democratic candidate for Vice President (as JFK's running mate). He was elected VP, so gave up senate seat.

    In 1984, Lloyd Benson was also on the general election ballot twice in Lone Star State, running for re-election to US Senate and also for VP (on Dem ticket with Walter Mondale); since he was NOT elected VP, Benson stayed in the Senate.

    Note that Texas law thus gives a sitting US Senator the chance of retaining their seat for another full term AND also running for President OR Vice President. LBJ won both elections, so could take his (obvious) choice. Lloyd Benson lost for VP (nationally AND in Texas) but was still able to retain his senate seat.
    ERROR ALERT- Think I screwed up re: Lloyd Benson, am doing some further research!
    OK, was correct about Lloyd Benson EXCEPT that I got the year & running mate wrong: was 1988 when Benson was VP running mate for Mike Dukakis AND ran for re-election as US Senator

    Re: Ted Cruz, one reason why he MIGHT have harder time running for two offices at once, for US Senate re-election AND for Pres (or VP) is that he is WAY less popular in Lone Star State than either LBJ or Benson in their heydays.

    For example, in 1988, though the Dukakis-Benson ticket lost Texas, Benson by himself was re-elected US senator with 59% of the vote.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,881

    I am watching an 80's sci fi programme called STAR COPS. It's a UK-made programme, starring David Calder as a reluctant 'space detective'. It's set in the near future (I think) - at any rate everybody is wearing 80's garb with very little alteration. It's not wholly bad - a police procedural set in space.

    Its vision for the (near) future is quite interesting - there are stations in space, but there's still quite a lot of stuff we would recognise, zero gravity and old style space suits. Space travel is portrayed with quite a lot of privation and hardship as opposed to everyone whizzing everywhere and teleporting from planet to planet. Of course the Soviets still exist as everyone assumed they would! :lol:

    Special effects are as ropey as you'd expect and use dodgy green screen heavily. However, their portrayal of zero gravity is quite clever - I'm not immediately sure how they've done it.

    I wonder if they simply hung them in the air and filmed straight up from the bottom to hide the suspension cables?

    Or underwater in a pool?
  • Just checked, Ted Cruz is up for re-election in 2024, is it possible for him to run for the GOP nomination and hold his seat?

    Given how close it was last time, his sole focus should be on Texas.

    Answer to your question is Yes, unless TX law has changed recently.

    Note that in 1960, Lyndon Johnson was on the Texas general election ballot twice, as candidate for re-election to US Senate AND as Democratic candidate for Vice President (as JFK's running mate). He was elected VP, so gave up senate seat.

    In 1984, Lloyd Benson was also on the general election ballot twice in Lone Star State, running for re-election to US Senate and also for VP (on Dem ticket with Walter Mondale); since he was NOT elected VP, Benson stayed in the Senate.

    Note that Texas law thus gives a sitting US Senator the chance of retaining their seat for another full term AND also running for President OR Vice President. LBJ won both elections, so could take his (obvious) choice. Lloyd Benson lost for VP (nationally AND in Texas) but was still able to retain his senate seat.
    Ted has upset some locals by legging it to Cancun during the big freeze. But it's Texas, so I guess they'll give him a pass on that, and also on his contribution to the recent failed insurrection.

    He may be a tosser, but he's their kind of tosser.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,881
    Carnyx said:

    I am watching an 80's sci fi programme called STAR COPS. It's a UK-made programme, starring David Calder as a reluctant 'space detective'. It's set in the near future (I think) - at any rate everybody is wearing 80's garb with very little alteration. It's not wholly bad - a police procedural set in space.

    Its vision for the (near) future is quite interesting - there are stations in space, but there's still quite a lot of stuff we would recognise, zero gravity and old style space suits. Space travel is portrayed with quite a lot of privation and hardship as opposed to everyone whizzing everywhere and teleporting from planet to planet. Of course the Soviets still exist as everyone assumed they would! :lol:

    Special effects are as ropey as you'd expect and use dodgy green screen heavily. However, their portrayal of zero gravity is quite clever - I'm not immediately sure how they've done it.

    I wonder if they simply hung them in the air and filmed straight up from the bottom to hide the suspension cables?

    Or underwater in a pool?
    PS http://wearecult.rocks/it-wont-be-easy-star-cops-thirty-years-on
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    ydoethur said:

    Can someone explain this joke to me please as I genuinely don't understand it.

    Q: Apparently only one shot in six of the Sputnik V vaccinations work.

    A: It's Russian rollout.

    Russian roulette.

    Please tell me that was a windup.

    (Admittedly, it was not as good as that Mascarpone one you didn’t get a while back.)
    No genuine.
    Ah well, it was a brave attempt at punning on winding a wheel...
  • Just checked, Ted Cruz is up for re-election in 2024, is it possible for him to run for the GOP nomination and hold his seat?

    Given how close it was last time, his sole focus should be on Texas.

    Answer to your question is Yes, unless TX law has changed recently.

    Note that in 1960, Lyndon Johnson was on the Texas general election ballot twice, as candidate for re-election to US Senate AND as Democratic candidate for Vice President (as JFK's running mate). He was elected VP, so gave up senate seat.

    In 1984, Lloyd Benson was also on the general election ballot twice in Lone Star State, running for re-election to US Senate and also for VP (on Dem ticket with Walter Mondale); since he was NOT elected VP, Benson stayed in the Senate.

    Note that Texas law thus gives a sitting US Senator the chance of retaining their seat for another full term AND also running for President OR Vice President. LBJ won both elections, so could take his (obvious) choice. Lloyd Benson lost for VP (nationally AND in Texas) but was still able to retain his senate seat.
    ERROR ALERT- Think I screwed up re: Lloyd Benson, am doing some further research!
    This brings me to another question I kept meaning to ask during the post election period.

    What happens to Kamala Harris's seat now she is VP. Does there have to be an election or is she still the sitting Senator as well as being VP?
    A replacement is appointed:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/kamala-harris-senate-seat-california-vice-president-b1788845.html
    Ta
  • IanB2 said:

    Global travel site Big 7 Travel has released the official 2021 list of the ’25 Best UK Staycations’; the top ten, in order:

    Cornwall – England
    The Lake District – England
    Yorkshire Dales – England
    Edinburgh – Scotland
    Loch Lomond – Scotland
    Isle of Wight – England
    Norfolk Broads – England
    Bath – England
    Ballycastle – Northern Ireland
    Manchester – England

    6. Isle of Wight

    This island off England’s southeast coast is famous for many things, from its stunning sandy beaches to its vibrant local culture and rich prehistoric history. One of the island’s biggest claims to fames is its plethora of fossils that have led to the discovery of more than 25 different dinosaurs that called Isle of Wight home in their day. For more recent history, there’s Queen Victoria’s royal former residence and Italian Renaissance dream in East Cowes, the Osborne House. And for a break from the tranquil sandy beaches, head to The Needles rock formation off the west end of the island.


    11 - Cotswolds
    12 - Snowdonia
    13 - Scilly Isles
    14 - Anglesey
    15 - London (!)
    16 - N Yorks moors
    17 - Pembroke coast
    18 - Orkney
    19 - Brighton
    20 - Skye
    21 - Norwich (?)
    22 - Inverness
    23 - Cardiff
    24 - Derry
    25 - Oxford

    I’ve as much chance of winning this one as I have of fixing official season dates, but for the last time a staycation is staying in your own home and taking day trips. A holiday in Cornwall, assuming you don’t live there, is called a holiday.
    What about if I go and stay with family in Devon? Does that count as a holiday or staycation?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    ydoethur said:

    Can someone explain this joke to me please as I genuinely don't understand it.

    Q: Apparently only one shot in six of the Sputnik V vaccinations work.

    A: It's Russian rollout.

    Russian roulette.

    Please tell me that was a windup.

    (Admittedly, it was not as good as that Mascarpone one you didn’t get a while back.)
    No genuine.
    A Russian friend of mine once told me that Russian roulette is not nearly as dangerous as simple maths makes it if you use a Russian revolver. Give it a good spin and the weight of the bullet will cause the chamber with the round in it to end up at the bottom, away from the hammer.

    For what I hope are obvious reasons don't try this!
    I thought you were going to say ‘because the bloody things never work anyway.’
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,548
    edited February 2021

    IanB2 said:

    Guardian breaking: Doctors and public health officials have pleaded with Germans to take up AstraZeneca Covid vaccines against the coronavirus, AFP reports. German healthcare facilities have reported several hundred thousand vials sitting unused and rampant no-shows at scheduled appointments.

    Officials in Italy, Austria and Bulgaria were also starting to signal some public resistance to the British vaccine, and France’s health minister, Olivier Véran, got the jab live on television to drum up support.

    “If you are given the choice between AstraZeneca now or another vaccine in a few months, you should definitely take AstraZeneca now,” implored Carsten Watzl, general secretary of the German Society for Immunology.

    The health minister, Jens Spahn, echoed the message, calling all three vaccines approved in the EU – AstraZeneca, BioNTech/Pfizer and Moderna – “safe and effective” despite varying levels of efficacy.

    How did that possibly happen.....its as if high profile individuals and media outlets have been reporting that its a shit vaccine based on pseudo-science.
    It is almost like the EU hired Andrew Wakefield to be in the charge of the vaccine rollout.
    Ah, I see someone else has already spotted the "EU citizens running in terror from the Oxford jab" story.

    So, they don't have their shots, the continental lockdowns last longer and more of them die.

    At the end of all this somebody should ask people like Macron and that tit from that German newspaper whether they might, perhaps, regret some of the rot that they've come out with. It's arguably worse than Trump's bleach remarks, which were, at least, transparently ridiculous.
    Sadly, it's probably more important to them to sledge the UK and protect political myths about the EU, than save a few thousand lives.

    They'd probably use confirmation bias to convince themselves the "cost" was worth it versus the many more lives that they suspect would be lost if the EU collapsed.
    What's amazing is the number of people who even now are convinced that the UK's success so far is just some kind of fluke or illusion and the EU will catch up and overtake us before long. It's a complete refusal to accept reality.
    There is also a certain strand of opinion that is completely desperate for the EU to succeed and the UK to fail - and the bigger the contrast the better. For them, the present situation must be very hard to bear. A bit like how it must've been to be a member of the Corbyn Left the morning after the 2019 General Election - I think for some people it doesn't compute, and the response is to retreat into complete denial (and even fantasy, as per that risible commentary penned by that French hack that people were laughing at the other day,) as a self-defence mechanism.
    To be fair the converse is also true. I know of a few people who are revelling in the failure of the EU in comparison to the UK. Given this is about life and death and that people are definitely dying every time a Government screws up with regard to Covid I am afraid I find the whole thing distasteful in the extreme.
  • From the 1980s (or was it the 1970s?) the "Jiiiiimmy!!" frisbee electrocution advert was also terrifyingly effective on me.

    I still want to cross the street whenever I see a substation.

    There was an electricity overhead cable ad that stuck with me. Not sure if this is the exact one but I think it might be.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ei1_LwE_FzE
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    IanB2 said:

    Katy Balls: Once the impact of the vaccines is visible, MPs are banking on a shift in public opinion. “Once the over-50s are done,” says one, “the political room gets small for the prime minister. People will go about their business.” If Johnson deviates far from his original aim of a scientific cavalry stopping the NHS from being overwhelmed, he will have a lockdown rebellion on his hands.

    I think the public will make the decision for Johnson what ever the SAGE people are muttering in his ear. Once over 50s are done there will be so much boozy mixing between households that he may as well open the pubs.

    People have had enough imho.
    Indeed. In my case I'm relatively cautious so I might stall a bit longer if I think I'm going to get my jab imminently rather than having to wait until about September, but basically I'm waiting for better weather and for aged relatives to have second shots and then I'm going visiting. The only way I'm not doing that is if we're still all locked up and the penalties for travelling have been made so eyewatering that I daren't chance it. A £200 fixed penalty notice won't put me off.
  • I am watching an 80's sci fi programme called STAR COPS. It's a UK-made programme, starring David Calder as a reluctant 'space detective'. It's set in the near future (I think) - at any rate everybody is wearing 80's garb with very little alteration. It's not wholly bad - a police procedural set in space.

    Its vision for the (near) future is quite interesting - there are stations in space, but there's still quite a lot of stuff we would recognise, zero gravity and old style space suits. Space travel is portrayed with quite a lot of privation and hardship as opposed to everyone whizzing everywhere and teleporting from planet to planet. Of course the Soviets still exist as everyone assumed they would! :lol:

    Special effects are as ropey as you'd expect and use dodgy green screen heavily. However, their portrayal of zero gravity is quite clever - I'm not immediately sure how they've done it.

    If you want stunningly good practical effects zero and micro gravity, 2001 is hard to beat. Particularly awesome as it was made before the actual moon landings.
  • Thanks by the way to Fishing for an excellent header.

    It's not my subject but it's well up to the current high standard the Site is achieving.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    NASA TV a gripping series of radio operators telling each other how good their reception is, whilst the lander slowly descends
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    ydoethur said:

    Can someone explain this joke to me please as I genuinely don't understand it.

    Q: Apparently only one shot in six of the Sputnik V vaccinations work.

    A: It's Russian rollout.

    Russian roulette.

    Please tell me that was a windup.

    (Admittedly, it was not as good as that Mascarpone one you didn’t get a while back.)
    No genuine.
    A Russian friend of mine once told me that Russian roulette is not nearly as dangerous as simple maths makes it if you use a Russian revolver. Give it a good spin and the weight of the bullet will cause the chamber with the round in it to end up at the bottom, away from the hammer.

    For what I hope are obvious reasons don't try this!
    That's very nice. I hope you always end that anecdote with 'And that, children, is why you should study physics instead of pure mathematics...'
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    So the one body that wasn't stuffed with SNP and Green members (an accidental omission one assumes), votes that there is no reason why documents that may be published legally, may not be published legally. Surprise surprise.
    Am I the only one who is completely lost with all this?

    Let me try and help.

    1. This committee was set up to investigate why the initial complaints procedure (prior to the police case) against Alex Salmond was so mishandled that the Scottish Government ended up having to pay him £500,000 of taxpayers' money. It is lead by an SNP MSP, and has on it an SNP/Green majority of 5 to 4.

    2. Alex Salmond's allegation (made very powerfully it must be said) is that the complaints were deliberately orchestrated, pushed, exaggerated, and to some extent invented, with the intention of destroying his reputation and preventing him ever returning to front-line politics. He also alleges that Nicola Sturgeon misled the SP about the nature of her meetings with him.

    3. Salmond has submitted evidence of the above to the enquiry, but they have thus far refused to publish it (not parts of it - all of it), so it cannot form part of their report. They have also warned Salmond that if his verbal evidence strays into proscribed areas, he could be subject to criminal prosecution - without actually telling him what areas to stay clear of. The refusal to publish is based on a court order by Lady Dorrian, trial judge in Salmond's sexual assault case, protecting (I think) the complainants' identities.

    4. The Spectator brought a legal case to modify this court order and prove that Salmond's evidence could indeed be published. Heard by Lady Dorrian, who stated that the Scottish Government's interpretation of her order to prevent Salmond's evidence being published was 'absurd'. She amended her court order to allow publication.

    5. Despite this, and the evidence being published by the Spectator, the enquiry still refused to publish the evidence, but did agree to hand the issue to the SP procedural committee for adjudication.

    6. This committee has now declared it is legal to publish. Salmond will now be able to testify without threat of criminal proceedings against him.

    They threatened him with prosecution over verbal evidence to a parliamentary committee?

    I thought that in itself would be illegal as such occasions are privileged?

    Certainly Westminster has got very hot and bothered when threats are made to witnesses in their inquiries.
    Yes. It isn't the same with SP committees. I don't know why, but they have considerably less power than WM ones.
    Well, that’s absurd. They should be privileged given it is a law making body. People should be able to testify without fear or favour.
    Even if they name people who's identity has been protected by court order?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    ydoethur said:

    Can someone explain this joke to me please as I genuinely don't understand it.

    Q: Apparently only one shot in six of the Sputnik V vaccinations work.

    A: It's Russian rollout.

    Russian roulette.

    Please tell me that was a windup.

    (Admittedly, it was not as good as that Mascarpone one you didn’t get a while back.)
    No genuine.
    A Russian friend of mine once told me that Russian roulette is not nearly as dangerous as simple maths makes it if you use a Russian revolver. Give it a good spin and the weight of the bullet will cause the chamber with the round in it to end up at the bottom, away from the hammer.

    For what I hope are obvious reasons don't try this!
    That's very nice. I hope you always end that anecdote with 'And that, children, is why you should study physics instead of pure mathematics...'
    It has its plus points.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    FPT
    Kinabalu said
    ' My brother's met him and says he has big charisma. Not a shock really when you think about it. He's won every election he's stood in, been London Mayor, Foreign Secretary, and is now PM, despite being palpably devoid of almost all the qualities needed to perform well in those jobs. So it can't be anything but charisma, can it?'

    To correct one point, he has not been successful at every election he contested. He was heavily defeated at Clwyd South in 1997 - polling less than half the vote of his Labour opponent. That seat is now Tory-held - so his charisma failed to make much difference there!
  • When Holyrood gets round to publishing it, it will already have been well read:

    https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1362441991544582145?s=20
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Are we nearly there yet?

    9000 miles to go.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Can someone explain this joke to me please as I genuinely don't understand it.

    Q: Apparently only one shot in six of the Sputnik V vaccinations work.

    A: It's Russian rollout.

    Russian roulette.

    Please tell me that was a windup.

    (Admittedly, it was not as good as that Mascarpone one you didn’t get a while back.)
    No genuine.
    A Russian friend of mine once told me that Russian roulette is not nearly as dangerous as simple maths makes it if you use a Russian revolver. Give it a good spin and the weight of the bullet will cause the chamber with the round in it to end up at the bottom, away from the hammer.

    For what I hope are obvious reasons don't try this!
    That's very nice. I hope you always end that anecdote with 'And that, children, is why you should study physics instead of pure mathematics...'
    It has its plus points.
    I guess Eulern something new every day...
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Can someone explain this joke to me please as I genuinely don't understand it.

    Q: Apparently only one shot in six of the Sputnik V vaccinations work.

    A: It's Russian rollout.

    Russian roulette.

    Please tell me that was a windup.

    (Admittedly, it was not as good as that Mascarpone one you didn’t get a while back.)
    No genuine.
    A Russian friend of mine once told me that Russian roulette is not nearly as dangerous as simple maths makes it if you use a Russian revolver. Give it a good spin and the weight of the bullet will cause the chamber with the round in it to end up at the bottom, away from the hammer.

    For what I hope are obvious reasons don't try this!
    I thought you were going to say ‘because the bloody things never work anyway.’
    A different colleague, a few years earlier, had for complex reasons spent time in the ex-Soviet Union trying to persuade their nuclear scientists to come and work in the west rather than Iran or North Korea. One of his stories was that if the big one had kicked off we would have had much less to fear from the Soviet rockets than most people thought. In theory the were fuelled with Hydrogen Peroxide and alcohol, seemingly sensible choices as they remain liquid at room temperature. In practice having a huge tank of alcohol in the same silo as a bunch of very bored Russian soldiers was not such a bright idea: most of the rockets would not have made it out of the silos as the fuel had been drunk.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Off topic - I haven't watched La Liga since Sky lost the rights, but has it turned into a pub league? The results of Spanish teams this week have been rather poor.
  • Any YT link to stream the Mars landing?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,398

    Any YT link to stream the Mars landing?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gm0b_ijaYMQ
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    justin124 said:

    FPT
    Kinabalu said
    ' My brother's met him and says he has big charisma. Not a shock really when you think about it. He's won every election he's stood in, been London Mayor, Foreign Secretary, and is now PM, despite being palpably devoid of almost all the qualities needed to perform well in those jobs. So it can't be anything but charisma, can it?'

    To correct one point, he has not been successful at every election he contested. He was heavily defeated at Clwyd South in 1997 - polling less than half the vote of his Labour opponent. That seat is now Tory-held - so his charisma failed to make much difference there!

    To be fair, the man is self evidently an able politician but I don't think that anybody's claimed that he's a bona fide worker of Christ-like miracles - which he would've had to be to win a Welsh seat off of Labour in 1997.
  • eek said:

    Any YT link to stream the Mars landing?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gm0b_ijaYMQ
    Thanks
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    edited February 2021
    Transmitter off pole about to be triggered

    System is go
    Telecoms is go
    GDS is go
    Power is go
    Avionics is go
    Flight software is go
    Chief is go

    All systems are go
  • justin124 said:

    FPT
    Kinabalu said
    ' My brother's met him and says he has big charisma. Not a shock really when you think about it. He's won every election he's stood in, been London Mayor, Foreign Secretary, and is now PM, despite being palpably devoid of almost all the qualities needed to perform well in those jobs. So it can't be anything but charisma, can it?'

    To correct one point, he has not been successful at every election he contested. He was heavily defeated at Clwyd South in 1997 - polling less than half the vote of his Labour opponent. That seat is now Tory-held - so his charisma failed to make much difference there!

    To be fair, the man is self evidently an able politician but I don't think that anybody's claimed that he's a bona fide worker of Christ-like miracles - which he would've had to be to win a Welsh seat off of Labour in 1997.
    Even Tony Blair didn't win all his elections: he was the Labour candidate in the Beconsfield by-election in 1982.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982_Beaconsfield_by-election
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,893



    That's a disaster - Back to Basics II. From now on, when so much as a Labour town councillor gets caught with his trousers down, it will all be Sir Keir's fault.

    One of the many things the Conservative and Labour parties have in common is their desire to tell people how to live their lives.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,443

    IanB2 said:

    Global travel site Big 7 Travel has released the official 2021 list of the ’25 Best UK Staycations’; the top ten, in order:

    Cornwall – England
    The Lake District – England
    Yorkshire Dales – England
    Edinburgh – Scotland
    Loch Lomond – Scotland
    Isle of Wight – England
    Norfolk Broads – England
    Bath – England
    Ballycastle – Northern Ireland
    Manchester – England

    6. Isle of Wight

    This island off England’s southeast coast is famous for many things, from its stunning sandy beaches to its vibrant local culture and rich prehistoric history. One of the island’s biggest claims to fames is its plethora of fossils that have led to the discovery of more than 25 different dinosaurs that called Isle of Wight home in their day. For more recent history, there’s Queen Victoria’s royal former residence and Italian Renaissance dream in East Cowes, the Osborne House. And for a break from the tranquil sandy beaches, head to The Needles rock formation off the west end of the island.


    11 - Cotswolds
    12 - Snowdonia
    13 - Scilly Isles
    14 - Anglesey
    15 - London (!)
    16 - N Yorks moors
    17 - Pembroke coast
    18 - Orkney
    19 - Brighton
    20 - Skye
    21 - Norwich (?)
    22 - Inverness
    23 - Cardiff
    24 - Derry
    25 - Oxford

    I’ve as much chance of winning this one as I have of fixing official season dates, but for the last time a staycation is staying in your own home and taking day trips. A holiday in Cornwall, assuming you don’t live there, is called a holiday.
    What about if I go and stay with family in Devon? Does that count as a holiday or staycation?
    Holiday, unless you own their house...
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    justin124 said:

    FPT
    Kinabalu said
    ' My brother's met him and says he has big charisma. Not a shock really when you think about it. He's won every election he's stood in, been London Mayor, Foreign Secretary, and is now PM, despite being palpably devoid of almost all the qualities needed to perform well in those jobs. So it can't be anything but charisma, can it?'

    To correct one point, he has not been successful at every election he contested. He was heavily defeated at Clwyd South in 1997 - polling less than half the vote of his Labour opponent. That seat is now Tory-held - so his charisma failed to make much difference there!

    Well, it took him 22 years, but he got that seat in the end. It just required him to be the PM instead of the candidate.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,052

    Come back opinion polls all is forgiven!

    Thanks to Fishing for a very interesting set of results, even if one does have to be very careful with small sample sizes.

    I always prefer in such situations to see scatter plots of the raw data, as it can give one a feel as to the reliability of the computed statistics.

    Yes, I have scatter plots of them, and you're right, they're a very useful check, together with coefficient t-stats and P values. They were no surprises, or I'd have noted it in the article.

    A couple of things that did surprise me in the data:

    - we Brits are a gloomy bunch. Average net approval rating for the goverment since 1977 is -30%.
    - generally the PM is more popular than his/her government, with the average net approval rating being -12%.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,335
    I'm actually watching NASA TV now...
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    FPT
    Kinabalu said
    ' My brother's met him and says he has big charisma. Not a shock really when you think about it. He's won every election he's stood in, been London Mayor, Foreign Secretary, and is now PM, despite being palpably devoid of almost all the qualities needed to perform well in those jobs. So it can't be anything but charisma, can it?'

    To correct one point, he has not been successful at every election he contested. He was heavily defeated at Clwyd South in 1997 - polling less than half the vote of his Labour opponent. That seat is now Tory-held - so his charisma failed to make much difference there!

    To be fair, the man is self evidently an able politician but I don't think that anybody's claimed that he's a bona fide worker of Christ-like miracles - which he would've had to be to win a Welsh seat off of Labour in 1997.
    Even Tony Blair didn't win all his elections: he was the Labour candidate in the Beconsfield by-election in 1982.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982_Beaconsfield_by-election
    I am well aware of that and was simply correcting the record re-Johnson.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    On topic, in the run up to the 2015 GE I did a piece which pointed out that the party that led on both the leadership ratings and best to run the economy metric won the general election.

    The only curio was 1997 where the Tories led on the economic question but trailed Blair so much on the leadership to be odd, especially after Black Wednesday.

    I might update that piece.

    Gross or net leadership ratings? Or preferred PM?

    Currently both leaders can claim to be in the lead depending upon how you define lead.
    Net satisfaction ratings.
    So you think Starmer is tanking at the moment rather than holding steady?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209

    ydoethur said:

    Can someone explain this joke to me please as I genuinely don't understand it.

    Q: Apparently only one shot in six of the Sputnik V vaccinations work.

    A: It's Russian rollout.

    Russian roulette.

    Please tell me that was a windup.

    (Admittedly, it was not as good as that Mascarpone one you didn’t get a while back.)
    No genuine.
    A Russian friend of mine once told me that Russian roulette is not nearly as dangerous as simple maths makes it if you use a Russian revolver. Give it a good spin and the weight of the bullet will cause the chamber with the round in it to end up at the bottom, away from the hammer.

    For what I hope are obvious reasons don't try this!
    Ownership of revolver being illegal in the UK?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209

    I am watching an 80's sci fi programme called STAR COPS. It's a UK-made programme, starring David Calder as a reluctant 'space detective'. It's set in the near future (I think) - at any rate everybody is wearing 80's garb with very little alteration. It's not wholly bad - a police procedural set in space.

    Its vision for the (near) future is quite interesting - there are stations in space, but there's still quite a lot of stuff we would recognise, zero gravity and old style space suits. Space travel is portrayed with quite a lot of privation and hardship as opposed to everyone whizzing everywhere and teleporting from planet to planet. Of course the Soviets still exist as everyone assumed they would! :lol:

    Special effects are as ropey as you'd expect and use dodgy green screen heavily. However, their portrayal of zero gravity is quite clever - I'm not immediately sure how they've done it.

    If you want stunningly good practical effects zero and micro gravity, 2001 is hard to beat. Particularly awesome as it was made before the actual moon landings.
    Such a shame that it is one of the most boring films ever made.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,398
    Floater said:
    You beat me to post the fact Ted Cruz both keeps on digging that ‘ole and keeps on giving entertainment
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,443
    rcs1000 said:

    I am watching an 80's sci fi programme called STAR COPS. It's a UK-made programme, starring David Calder as a reluctant 'space detective'. It's set in the near future (I think) - at any rate everybody is wearing 80's garb with very little alteration. It's not wholly bad - a police procedural set in space.

    Its vision for the (near) future is quite interesting - there are stations in space, but there's still quite a lot of stuff we would recognise, zero gravity and old style space suits. Space travel is portrayed with quite a lot of privation and hardship as opposed to everyone whizzing everywhere and teleporting from planet to planet. Of course the Soviets still exist as everyone assumed they would! :lol:

    Special effects are as ropey as you'd expect and use dodgy green screen heavily. However, their portrayal of zero gravity is quite clever - I'm not immediately sure how they've done it.

    If you want stunningly good practical effects zero and micro gravity, 2001 is hard to beat. Particularly awesome as it was made before the actual moon landings.
    Such a shame that it is one of the most boring films ever made.
    It’s a touch overlong. I’m told it’s best consumed in combination with chemical enhancement.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    rcs1000 said:

    I am watching an 80's sci fi programme called STAR COPS. It's a UK-made programme, starring David Calder as a reluctant 'space detective'. It's set in the near future (I think) - at any rate everybody is wearing 80's garb with very little alteration. It's not wholly bad - a police procedural set in space.

    Its vision for the (near) future is quite interesting - there are stations in space, but there's still quite a lot of stuff we would recognise, zero gravity and old style space suits. Space travel is portrayed with quite a lot of privation and hardship as opposed to everyone whizzing everywhere and teleporting from planet to planet. Of course the Soviets still exist as everyone assumed they would! :lol:

    Special effects are as ropey as you'd expect and use dodgy green screen heavily. However, their portrayal of zero gravity is quite clever - I'm not immediately sure how they've done it.

    If you want stunningly good practical effects zero and micro gravity, 2001 is hard to beat. Particularly awesome as it was made before the actual moon landings.
    Such a shame that it is one of the most boring films ever made.
    It’s a touch overlong. I’m told it’s best consumed in combination with chemical enhancement.
    Well, it is about a crack in reality.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,823

    rcs1000 said:

    I am watching an 80's sci fi programme called STAR COPS. It's a UK-made programme, starring David Calder as a reluctant 'space detective'. It's set in the near future (I think) - at any rate everybody is wearing 80's garb with very little alteration. It's not wholly bad - a police procedural set in space.

    Its vision for the (near) future is quite interesting - there are stations in space, but there's still quite a lot of stuff we would recognise, zero gravity and old style space suits. Space travel is portrayed with quite a lot of privation and hardship as opposed to everyone whizzing everywhere and teleporting from planet to planet. Of course the Soviets still exist as everyone assumed they would! :lol:

    Special effects are as ropey as you'd expect and use dodgy green screen heavily. However, their portrayal of zero gravity is quite clever - I'm not immediately sure how they've done it.

    If you want stunningly good practical effects zero and micro gravity, 2001 is hard to beat. Particularly awesome as it was made before the actual moon landings.
    Such a shame that it is one of the most boring films ever made.
    It’s a touch overlong. I’m told it’s best consumed in combination with chemical enhancement.
    2001? My memory of it is that it was absolutely brilliant. But it's some time ago.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,091
    edited February 2021
    Floater said:
    Obvious BS....but also, during a pandemic, you are happy to take your daugthers to a country with rampant covid....not a very good parent, even if his excuse was true.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,477
    Carnyx said:

    I am watching an 80's sci fi programme called STAR COPS. It's a UK-made programme, starring David Calder as a reluctant 'space detective'. It's set in the near future (I think) - at any rate everybody is wearing 80's garb with very little alteration. It's not wholly bad - a police procedural set in space.

    Its vision for the (near) future is quite interesting - there are stations in space, but there's still quite a lot of stuff we would recognise, zero gravity and old style space suits. Space travel is portrayed with quite a lot of privation and hardship as opposed to everyone whizzing everywhere and teleporting from planet to planet. Of course the Soviets still exist as everyone assumed they would! :lol:

    Special effects are as ropey as you'd expect and use dodgy green screen heavily. However, their portrayal of zero gravity is quite clever - I'm not immediately sure how they've done it.

    I wonder if they simply hung them in the air and filmed straight up from the bottom to hide the suspension cables?

    Or underwater in a pool?
    Definitely not the latter. Green screen is involved -it's the movement that's quite clever, and the hair. It's like they've not over-egged it. From 38.30: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GpeldoEzg2U
  • justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    FPT
    Kinabalu said
    ' My brother's met him and says he has big charisma. Not a shock really when you think about it. He's won every election he's stood in, been London Mayor, Foreign Secretary, and is now PM, despite being palpably devoid of almost all the qualities needed to perform well in those jobs. So it can't be anything but charisma, can it?'

    To correct one point, he has not been successful at every election he contested. He was heavily defeated at Clwyd South in 1997 - polling less than half the vote of his Labour opponent. That seat is now Tory-held - so his charisma failed to make much difference there!

    To be fair, the man is self evidently an able politician but I don't think that anybody's claimed that he's a bona fide worker of Christ-like miracles - which he would've had to be to win a Welsh seat off of Labour in 1997.
    Even Tony Blair didn't win all his elections: he was the Labour candidate in the Beconsfield by-election in 1982.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982_Beaconsfield_by-election
    I am well aware of that and was simply correcting the record re-Johnson.
    The trial run does not really count. The betting implication imo is that Boris will want to retire undefeated (like Mrs Thatcher & Mr Blair) so will probably step down if the polls move against him in 2023-ish.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,335
    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Can someone explain this joke to me please as I genuinely don't understand it.

    Q: Apparently only one shot in six of the Sputnik V vaccinations work.

    A: It's Russian rollout.

    Russian roulette.

    Please tell me that was a windup.

    (Admittedly, it was not as good as that Mascarpone one you didn’t get a while back.)
    No genuine.
    A Russian friend of mine once told me that Russian roulette is not nearly as dangerous as simple maths makes it if you use a Russian revolver. Give it a good spin and the weight of the bullet will cause the chamber with the round in it to end up at the bottom, away from the hammer.

    For what I hope are obvious reasons don't try this!
    Ownership of revolver being illegal in the UK?
    Its still not illegal I think, just you have to have a some serious reasons. I once had the joy of legally owning a Taurus quite a while ago.
  • HYUFD said:
    Might have said this before, but I've met Harwood a few times through student political stuff and the NUS, and he is an extremely career orientated guy. I was an NUS delegate at their conference in Glasgow a few years ago. I was chatting to Harwood and some far left activists occupied the stage in protest of something. Literally mid sentence in his conversation with me, he jumped up and began recording himself in front of the occupation to post on social media. I can't help but admire the hustle.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,779

    IanB2 said:

    Global travel site Big 7 Travel has released the official 2021 list of the ’25 Best UK Staycations’; the top ten, in order:

    Cornwall – England
    The Lake District – England
    Yorkshire Dales – England
    Edinburgh – Scotland
    Loch Lomond – Scotland
    Isle of Wight – England
    Norfolk Broads – England
    Bath – England
    Ballycastle – Northern Ireland
    Manchester – England

    6. Isle of Wight

    This island off England’s southeast coast is famous for many things, from its stunning sandy beaches to its vibrant local culture and rich prehistoric history. One of the island’s biggest claims to fames is its plethora of fossils that have led to the discovery of more than 25 different dinosaurs that called Isle of Wight home in their day. For more recent history, there’s Queen Victoria’s royal former residence and Italian Renaissance dream in East Cowes, the Osborne House. And for a break from the tranquil sandy beaches, head to The Needles rock formation off the west end of the island.


    11 - Cotswolds
    12 - Snowdonia
    13 - Scilly Isles
    14 - Anglesey
    15 - London (!)
    16 - N Yorks moors
    17 - Pembroke coast
    18 - Orkney
    19 - Brighton
    20 - Skye
    21 - Norwich (?)
    22 - Inverness
    23 - Cardiff
    24 - Derry
    25 - Oxford

    I’ve as much chance of winning this one as I have of fixing official season dates, but for the last time a staycation is staying in your own home and taking day trips. A holiday in Cornwall, assuming you don’t live there, is called a holiday.
    What about if I go and stay with family in Devon? Does that count as a holiday or staycation?
    Holiday, unless you own their house...
    I'm totally with you - and even if you own their house (or more realistically you own a second 'holiday' home) - it is *still* a holiday and not a staycation. It's a 'holiday home' - not a 'staycation home'.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    FPT
    Kinabalu said
    ' My brother's met him and says he has big charisma. Not a shock really when you think about it. He's won every election he's stood in, been London Mayor, Foreign Secretary, and is now PM, despite being palpably devoid of almost all the qualities needed to perform well in those jobs. So it can't be anything but charisma, can it?'

    To correct one point, he has not been successful at every election he contested. He was heavily defeated at Clwyd South in 1997 - polling less than half the vote of his Labour opponent. That seat is now Tory-held - so his charisma failed to make much difference there!

    To be fair, the man is self evidently an able politician but I don't think that anybody's claimed that he's a bona fide worker of Christ-like miracles - which he would've had to be to win a Welsh seat off of Labour in 1997.
    Even Tony Blair didn't win all his elections: he was the Labour candidate in the Beconsfield by-election in 1982.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982_Beaconsfield_by-election
    I am well aware of that and was simply correcting the record re-Johnson.
    The trial run does not really count. The betting implication imo is that Boris will want to retire undefeated (like Mrs Thatcher & Mr Blair) so will probably step down if the polls move against him in 2023-ish.
    Thatcher lost two elections at the start as well, in Dartford.
  • HYUFD said:

    Tom Harwood moving to GBN

    twitter.com/MediaGuido/status/1362461113628176390?s=20

    I still can't see how GB News and News UK TV are going to be viable.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,123

    justin124 said:

    FPT
    Kinabalu said
    ' My brother's met him and says he has big charisma. Not a shock really when you think about it. He's won every election he's stood in, been London Mayor, Foreign Secretary, and is now PM, despite being palpably devoid of almost all the qualities needed to perform well in those jobs. So it can't be anything but charisma, can it?'

    To correct one point, he has not been successful at every election he contested. He was heavily defeated at Clwyd South in 1997 - polling less than half the vote of his Labour opponent. That seat is now Tory-held - so his charisma failed to make much difference there!

    To be fair, the man is self evidently an able politician but I don't think that anybody's claimed that he's a bona fide worker of Christ-like miracles - which he would've had to be to win a Welsh seat off of Labour in 1997.
    Even Tony Blair didn't win all his elections: he was the Labour candidate in the Beconsfield by-election in 1982.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982_Beaconsfield_by-election
    Indeed Obama lost his first Congressional primary race for Illinois' first district and George W Bush lost his 1978 election for Texas' 19th district and Bill Clinton lost his first re election battle for Arkansas governor.

    Early losses in their political career help politicians refine their message and campaign tactics later on
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,123
    ydoethur said:

    Just checked, Ted Cruz is up for re-election in 2024, is it possible for him to run for the GOP nomination and hold his seat?

    Given how close it was last time, his sole focus should be on Texas.

    I believe he can in law do both, although he would have to resign his seat to become President so there seems little point.

    In practice, it would surely look really bad if he tried to hold his Senate seat as well. For a start, it would suggest he thought he had no chance of winning the Presidency. For another, it would tie him to Texas.

    So I think he will, in the real world, have to make a decision.

    I don’t think he has any chance of the nomination, still less the presidency, tbh, so he’d be better trying to hold his seat in the Senate.
    If Trump does not run again then I think Cruz would have a good chance of the nomination given the current views of most of the GOP base
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Entry, descent and landing (EDL) mode will be triggered in four minutes
  • tlg86 said:

    Off topic - I haven't watched La Liga since Sky lost the rights, but has it turned into a pub league? The results of Spanish teams this week have been rather poor.

    La Liga is where the PL is heading if the Champions League proposals are adopted.

    The tv money is spread equally and it means the big clubs, well big two, are all powerful.

    However they are both up shit creek financially due to poor decision making and that has had impact both long term and short term on La Liga.

    Only Diego Simeone is making it interesting.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,866
    IanB2 said:

    Entry, descent and landing (EDL) mode will be triggered in four minutes

    Tommy Robinson to take over piloting?
  • HYUFD said:
    Might have said this before, but I've met Harwood a few times through student political stuff and the NUS, and he is an extremely career orientated guy. I was an NUS delegate at their conference in Glasgow a few years ago. I was chatting to Harwood and some far left activists occupied the stage in protest of something. Literally mid sentence in his conversation with me, he jumped up and began recording himself in front of the occupation to post on social media. I can't help but admire the hustle.
    When you say far leftist activists occupied the stage....you mean the president and their team took the stage to moderate a session?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited February 2021
    isam said:

    On topic, in the run up to the 2015 GE I did a piece which pointed out that the party that led on both the leadership ratings and best to run the economy metric won the general election.

    The only curio was 1997 where the Tories led on the economic question but trailed Blair so much on the leadership to be odd, especially after Black Wednesday.

    I might update that piece.

    Gross or net leadership ratings? Or preferred PM?

    Currently both leaders can claim to be in the lead depending upon how you define lead.
    Net satisfaction ratings.
    So you think Starmer is tanking at the moment rather than holding steady?
    ...





  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    I've had a quick look at the Covid heat map and am pleased to observe that the wretched disease is still in steady retreat, is now below 100 cases per 100k in many if not most local authority areas in Southern England, and that my own neck of the woods is now down to 97.

    That's the good news. The bad news is that, if the target of 1,000 cases per day is to be imposed then the average weekly case rate countrywide is going to have to be brought down not to 100 per 100k, or even 50 per 100k, but ten. Somebody with a better grasp of the numbers than I might pop up on here later and work out how long it's going to take to get the rate down that low; however, even if it's possible in the first place, I should imagine the answer to that is something along the lines of "a bloody long time."
  • IanB2 said:

    Entry, descent and landing (EDL) mode will be triggered in four minutes

    There's an 11 minute lag isn't there in the communications? So if EDL mode is triggered in 4 minutes the communication that its been triggered will arrive in quarter of an hour, right?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,123
    edited February 2021
    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    FPT
    Kinabalu said
    ' My brother's met him and says he has big charisma. Not a shock really when you think about it. He's won every election he's stood in, been London Mayor, Foreign Secretary, and is now PM, despite being palpably devoid of almost all the qualities needed to perform well in those jobs. So it can't be anything but charisma, can it?'

    To correct one point, he has not been successful at every election he contested. He was heavily defeated at Clwyd South in 1997 - polling less than half the vote of his Labour opponent. That seat is now Tory-held - so his charisma failed to make much difference there!

    To be fair, the man is self evidently an able politician but I don't think that anybody's claimed that he's a bona fide worker of Christ-like miracles - which he would've had to be to win a Welsh seat off of Labour in 1997.
    Even Tony Blair didn't win all his elections: he was the Labour candidate in the Beconsfield by-election in 1982.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982_Beaconsfield_by-election
    I am well aware of that and was simply correcting the record re-Johnson.
    The trial run does not really count. The betting implication imo is that Boris will want to retire undefeated (like Mrs Thatcher & Mr Blair) so will probably step down if the polls move against him in 2023-ish.
    Thatcher lost two elections at the start as well, in Dartford.
    John Major lost 2 elections for the St Pancras seat in 1974 too, Cameron lost Stafford in 1997 as well which was technically a Labour gain and May lost Durham NW in 1992, coming in 3rd behind Tim Farron and she stood in the Barking by election in 1994 where she also came third before she was selected for Maidenhead in 1997.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,421

    HYUFD said:

    Tom Harwood moving to GBN

    twitter.com/MediaGuido/status/1362461113628176390?s=20

    I still can't see how GB News and News UK TV are going to be viable.
    They're aiming to shift the Overton window in the UK further to the right. I'd be surprised if they can't rustle up some cash for that.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,477
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    I am watching an 80's sci fi programme called STAR COPS. It's a UK-made programme, starring David Calder as a reluctant 'space detective'. It's set in the near future (I think) - at any rate everybody is wearing 80's garb with very little alteration. It's not wholly bad - a police procedural set in space.

    Its vision for the (near) future is quite interesting - there are stations in space, but there's still quite a lot of stuff we would recognise, zero gravity and old style space suits. Space travel is portrayed with quite a lot of privation and hardship as opposed to everyone whizzing everywhere and teleporting from planet to planet. Of course the Soviets still exist as everyone assumed they would! :lol:

    Special effects are as ropey as you'd expect and use dodgy green screen heavily. However, their portrayal of zero gravity is quite clever - I'm not immediately sure how they've done it.

    I wonder if they simply hung them in the air and filmed straight up from the bottom to hide the suspension cables?

    Or underwater in a pool?
    PS http://wearecult.rocks/it-wont-be-easy-star-cops-thirty-years-on
    Ha - thanks, good article.
  • HYUFD said:
    Might have said this before, but I've met Harwood a few times through student political stuff and the NUS, and he is an extremely career orientated guy. I was an NUS delegate at their conference in Glasgow a few years ago. I was chatting to Harwood and some far left activists occupied the stage in protest of something. Literally mid sentence in his conversation with me, he jumped up and began recording himself in front of the occupation to post on social media. I can't help but admire the hustle.
    When you say far leftist activists occupied the stage....you mean the president and their team took the stage to moderate a session?
    This was one of the years when the far left didn't think the far left President was far left enough. It ended in the President crying on stage because of the anonymous abuse she was being sent, IIRC.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,421
    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Entry, descent and landing (EDL) mode will be triggered in four minutes

    Tommy Robinson to take over piloting?
    The only music on Mars is Disco music (from the English Disco Lovers).
  • isam said:

    On topic, in the run up to the 2015 GE I did a piece which pointed out that the party that led on both the leadership ratings and best to run the economy metric won the general election.

    The only curio was 1997 where the Tories led on the economic question but trailed Blair so much on the leadership to be odd, especially after Black Wednesday.

    I might update that piece.

    Gross or net leadership ratings? Or preferred PM?

    Currently both leaders can claim to be in the lead depending upon how you define lead.
    Net satisfaction ratings.
    So you think Starmer is tanking at the moment rather than holding steady?
    A little bit, most LOTOs generally start of with good ratings usually caused by a higher number of DKs.

    There's been only one LOTO who had consistently positive ratings throughout their tenure, most LOTOs who go on to become PM have ups and down.

    He's doing better than most LOTOs at this point in the cycle of leader/satisfaction ratings but meh in VI scores.

    I genuinely don't know how much pandemic era polling can be used to compare to previous eras.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    HYUFD said:
    They can promise whatever they like. They're never going to get the chance to do any of it.
  • From the 1980s (or was it the 1970s?) the "Jiiiiimmy!!" frisbee electrocution advert was also terrifyingly effective on me.

    I still want to cross the street whenever I see a substation.

    There was an electricity overhead cable ad that stuck with me. Not sure if this is the exact one but I think it might be.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ei1_LwE_FzE
    Jimmy is more traumatic:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KryOYburlFI
  • MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Entry, descent and landing (EDL) mode will be triggered in four minutes

    Tommy Robinson to take over piloting?
    The only music on Mars is Disco music (from the English Disco Lovers).
    Yeah but 30 Seconds To Mars not bad.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    isam said:

    On topic, in the run up to the 2015 GE I did a piece which pointed out that the party that led on both the leadership ratings and best to run the economy metric won the general election.

    The only curio was 1997 where the Tories led on the economic question but trailed Blair so much on the leadership to be odd, especially after Black Wednesday.

    I might update that piece.

    Gross or net leadership ratings? Or preferred PM?

    Currently both leaders can claim to be in the lead depending upon how you define lead.
    Net satisfaction ratings.
    So you think Starmer is tanking at the moment rather than holding steady?
    He is doing far better than Ted Heath was performing during the 1966 - 1970 Parliament.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,123
    edited February 2021

    isam said:

    On topic, in the run up to the 2015 GE I did a piece which pointed out that the party that led on both the leadership ratings and best to run the economy metric won the general election.

    The only curio was 1997 where the Tories led on the economic question but trailed Blair so much on the leadership to be odd, especially after Black Wednesday.

    I might update that piece.

    Gross or net leadership ratings? Or preferred PM?

    Currently both leaders can claim to be in the lead depending upon how you define lead.
    Net satisfaction ratings.
    So you think Starmer is tanking at the moment rather than holding steady?
    A little bit, most LOTOs generally start of with good ratings usually caused by a higher number of DKs.

    There's been only one LOTO who had consistently positive ratings throughout their tenure, most LOTOs who go on to become PM have ups and down.

    He's doing better than most LOTOs at this point in the cycle of leader/satisfaction ratings but meh in VI scores.

    I genuinely don't know how much pandemic era polling can be used to compare to previous eras.
    I agree, compared to recent leaders of the opposition Starmer is certainly doing better than Hague and IDS and Miliband and Corbyn and Foot were at this stage certainly.

    At the moment while he is clearly nowhere near Blair levels, he is doing at least as well as Howard, Kinnock and Cameron were just under a year in post.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    IanB2 said:

    Entry, descent and landing (EDL) mode will be triggered in four minutes

    There's an 11 minute lag isn't there in the communications? So if EDL mode is triggered in 4 minutes the communication that its been triggered will arrive in quarter of an hour, right?
    11 minute delay, each way
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Just checked, Ted Cruz is up for re-election in 2024, is it possible for him to run for the GOP nomination and hold his seat?

    Given how close it was last time, his sole focus should be on Texas.

    I believe he can in law do both, although he would have to resign his seat to become President so there seems little point.

    In practice, it would surely look really bad if he tried to hold his Senate seat as well. For a start, it would suggest he thought he had no chance of winning the Presidency. For another, it would tie him to Texas.

    So I think he will, in the real world, have to make a decision.

    I don’t think he has any chance of the nomination, still less the presidency, tbh, so he’d be better trying to hold his seat in the Senate.
    If Trump does not run again then I think Cruz would have a good chance of the nomination given the current views of most of the GOP base
    In the same way with Jeremy Corbyn out of the running Rebecca Long Bailey was the clear favourite to secure his backers given the views of Labour members?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,477
    HYUFD said:
    Presentation-wise, everything I've seen of GB news so far looks a bit tacky.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    IanB2 said:

    Entry, descent and landing (EDL) mode will be triggered in four minutes

    That’s a seriously unfortunate set of initials.

    Although I wouldn’t say no to sending the EDL to Mars, come to think of it.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited February 2021

    Just checked, Ted Cruz is up for re-election in 2024, is it possible for him to run for the GOP nomination and hold his seat?

    Given how close it was last time, his sole focus should be on Texas.

    Answer to your question is Yes, unless TX law has changed recently.

    Note that in 1960, Lyndon Johnson was on the Texas general election ballot twice, as candidate for re-election to US Senate AND as Democratic candidate for Vice President (as JFK's running mate). He was elected VP, so gave up senate seat.

    In 1984, Lloyd Benson was also on the general election ballot twice in Lone Star State, running for re-election to US Senate and also for VP (on Dem ticket with Walter Mondale); since he was NOT elected VP, Benson stayed in the Senate.

    Note that Texas law thus gives a sitting US Senator the chance of retaining their seat for another full term AND also running for President OR Vice President. LBJ won both elections, so could take his (obvious) choice. Lloyd Benson lost for VP (nationally AND in Texas) but was still able to retain his senate seat.
    Ted has upset some locals by legging it to Cancun during the big freeze. But it's Texas, so I guess they'll give him a pass on that, and also on his contribution to the recent failed insurrection.

    He may be a tosser, but he's their kind of tosser.
    Beto O'Rourke came close to bouncing "Visit Cancun" Ted back in 2018.

    Cruz could lose Texas for US Senate in 2024 for same reason that Trumpsky lost re-election in 2020: the asshole factor.

    BUT maybe instead he'll be just what the Republican Party is seeking for President in 2024?

    Of course, a couple of months ago, some PBers were saying that Mike Pence was a shoo-in for THAT nomination!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,123
    edited February 2021
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Just checked, Ted Cruz is up for re-election in 2024, is it possible for him to run for the GOP nomination and hold his seat?

    Given how close it was last time, his sole focus should be on Texas.

    I believe he can in law do both, although he would have to resign his seat to become President so there seems little point.

    In practice, it would surely look really bad if he tried to hold his Senate seat as well. For a start, it would suggest he thought he had no chance of winning the Presidency. For another, it would tie him to Texas.

    So I think he will, in the real world, have to make a decision.

    I don’t think he has any chance of the nomination, still less the presidency, tbh, so he’d be better trying to hold his seat in the Senate.
    If Trump does not run again then I think Cruz would have a good chance of the nomination given the current views of most of the GOP base
    In the same way with Jeremy Corbyn out of the running Rebecca Long Bailey was the clear favourite to secure his backers given the views of Labour members?
    Corbyn led Labour to a landslide defeat in 2019, 12% behind the Tories, Trump was only 4% behind Biden last year which was closer to Corbyn's 2017 result than his 2019 result.

    Until the GOP suffer a similar landslide defeat as Corbyn Labour did in 2019 did there will be no move on from Trumpism
  • ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    FPT
    Kinabalu said
    ' My brother's met him and says he has big charisma. Not a shock really when you think about it. He's won every election he's stood in, been London Mayor, Foreign Secretary, and is now PM, despite being palpably devoid of almost all the qualities needed to perform well in those jobs. So it can't be anything but charisma, can it?'

    To correct one point, he has not been successful at every election he contested. He was heavily defeated at Clwyd South in 1997 - polling less than half the vote of his Labour opponent. That seat is now Tory-held - so his charisma failed to make much difference there!

    To be fair, the man is self evidently an able politician but I don't think that anybody's claimed that he's a bona fide worker of Christ-like miracles - which he would've had to be to win a Welsh seat off of Labour in 1997.
    Even Tony Blair didn't win all his elections: he was the Labour candidate in the Beconsfield by-election in 1982.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982_Beaconsfield_by-election
    I am well aware of that and was simply correcting the record re-Johnson.
    The trial run does not really count. The betting implication imo is that Boris will want to retire undefeated (like Mrs Thatcher & Mr Blair) so will probably step down if the polls move against him in 2023-ish.
    Thatcher lost two elections at the start as well, in Dartford.
    Yes but again that does not count. It is usual for new candidates to start in impossible seats, and these trial runs can be ignored. Once Mrs T or whoever started winning, they kept winning. Mrs Thatcher wanted to call her memoirs Undefeated (remember she did win her final leadership ballot but not by the required margin).

    Boris will, I think, also want to retire undefeated, mainly for ego but partly with half an eye on his value on the public speaking circuit here and in America.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172



    A little bit, most LOTOs generally start of with good ratings usually caused by a higher number of DKs.

    There's been only one LOTO who had consistently positive ratings throughout their tenure, most LOTOs who go on to become PM have ups and down.

    He's doing better than most LOTOs at this point in the cycle of leader/satisfaction ratings but meh in VI scores.

    I genuinely don't know how much pandemic era polling can be used to compare to previous eras.

    SKS is looking old, and a bit dull. It is a real pity he stood, Labour did have much better options.

    SKS seems to be following the Tony Blair picture-book on "How to Win a General Election?"

    But, the thrill just isn't there, anymore.

    It is the same moves, the same foreplay as Tony used, but no-one feels really excited by the prospect of precoital activity with a greying, stolid, almost sixty-year old, lawyer.

    Hard not to forget, we could have had Lisa Nandy or Angela Rayner .... as LOTO :)
  • eekeek Posts: 28,398

    Just checked, Ted Cruz is up for re-election in 2024, is it possible for him to run for the GOP nomination and hold his seat?

    Given how close it was last time, his sole focus should be on Texas.

    Answer to your question is Yes, unless TX law has changed recently.

    Note that in 1960, Lyndon Johnson was on the Texas general election ballot twice, as candidate for re-election to US Senate AND as Democratic candidate for Vice President (as JFK's running mate). He was elected VP, so gave up senate seat.

    In 1984, Lloyd Benson was also on the general election ballot twice in Lone Star State, running for re-election to US Senate and also for VP (on Dem ticket with Walter Mondale); since he was NOT elected VP, Benson stayed in the Senate.

    Note that Texas law thus gives a sitting US Senator the chance of retaining their seat for another full term AND also running for President OR Vice President. LBJ won both elections, so could take his (obvious) choice. Lloyd Benson lost for VP (nationally AND in Texas) but was still able to retain his senate seat.
    Ted has upset some locals by legging it to Cancun during the big freeze. But it's Texas, so I guess they'll give him a pass on that, and also on his contribution to the recent failed insurrection.

    He may be a tosser, but he's their kind of tosser.
    Beto O'Rourke came close to bouncing "Visit Cancun" Ted back in 2018.

    Cruz could lose Texas for US Senate in 2024 for same reason that Trumpsky lost re-election in 2020: the asshole factor.

    BUT maybe instead he'll be just what the Republican Party is seeking for President in 2024?

    Of course, a couple of months ago, some PBers were saying that Mike Pence was a shoo-in for THAT nomination!
    Not me - I think I said back in November that Cruz will be the 2024 Republican candidate unless Trump stands (which I doubt will be the case).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,123

    Just checked, Ted Cruz is up for re-election in 2024, is it possible for him to run for the GOP nomination and hold his seat?

    Given how close it was last time, his sole focus should be on Texas.

    Answer to your question is Yes, unless TX law has changed recently.

    Note that in 1960, Lyndon Johnson was on the Texas general election ballot twice, as candidate for re-election to US Senate AND as Democratic candidate for Vice President (as JFK's running mate). He was elected VP, so gave up senate seat.

    In 1984, Lloyd Benson was also on the general election ballot twice in Lone Star State, running for re-election to US Senate and also for VP (on Dem ticket with Walter Mondale); since he was NOT elected VP, Benson stayed in the Senate.

    Note that Texas law thus gives a sitting US Senator the chance of retaining their seat for another full term AND also running for President OR Vice President. LBJ won both elections, so could take his (obvious) choice. Lloyd Benson lost for VP (nationally AND in Texas) but was still able to retain his senate seat.
    Ted has upset some locals by legging it to Cancun during the big freeze. But it's Texas, so I guess they'll give him a pass on that, and also on his contribution to the recent failed insurrection.

    He may be a tosser, but he's their kind of tosser.
    Beto O'Rourke came close to bouncing "Visit Cancun" Ted back in 2018.

    Cruz could lose Texas for US Senate in 2024 for same reason that Trumpsky lost re-election in 2020: the asshole factor.

    BUT maybe instead he'll be just what the Republican Party is seeking for President in 2024?

    Of course, a couple of months ago, some PBers were saying that Mike Pence was a shoo-in for THAT nomination!
    Without Trump Pence is ahead with Cruz 4th, 1% behind Haley.

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1356836849533284352?s=20

    If Trump runs again though he is miles ahead

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1361905464146075649?s=20
This discussion has been closed.