On topic, in the run up to the 2015 GE I did a piece which pointed out that the party that led on both the leadership ratings and best to run the economy metric won the general election.
The only curio was 1997 where the Tories led on the economic question but trailed Blair so much on the leadership to be odd, especially after Black Wednesday.
I might update that piece.
Gross or net leadership ratings? Or preferred PM?
Currently both leaders can claim to be in the lead depending upon how you define lead.
Net satisfaction ratings.
So you think Starmer is tanking at the moment rather than holding steady?
A little bit, most LOTOs generally start of with good ratings usually caused by a higher number of DKs.
There's been only one LOTO who had consistently positive ratings throughout their tenure, most LOTOs who go on to become PM have ups and down.
He's doing better than most LOTOs at this point in the cycle of leader/satisfaction ratings but meh in VI scores.
I genuinely don't know how much pandemic era polling can be used to compare to previous eras.
Wilson was very good 1963 - 1964 - though less effective post 1970. I agree very much with your final sentence.
A little bit, most LOTOs generally start of with good ratings usually caused by a higher number of DKs.
There's been only one LOTO who had consistently positive ratings throughout their tenure, most LOTOs who go on to become PM have ups and down.
He's doing better than most LOTOs at this point in the cycle of leader/satisfaction ratings but meh in VI scores.
I genuinely don't know how much pandemic era polling can be used to compare to previous eras.
SKS is looking old, and a bit dull. It is a real pity he stood, Labour did have much better options.
SKS seems to be following the Tony Blair picture-book on "How to Win a General Election?"
But, the thrill just isn't there, anymore.
It is the same moves, the same foreplay as Tony used, but no-one feels really excited by the prospect of precoital activity with a greying, stolid, almost sixty-year old, lawyer.
Hard not to forget, we could have had Lisa Nandy or Angela Rayner .... as LOTO
Equally hard not to forget, we could have had Rebecca Long-Bailey or Richard Burgon...as LOTO
Or, had she not lost one of the World's safest Labour seats, Laura Pidcock.
A little bit, most LOTOs generally start of with good ratings usually caused by a higher number of DKs.
There's been only one LOTO who had consistently positive ratings throughout their tenure, most LOTOs who go on to become PM have ups and down.
He's doing better than most LOTOs at this point in the cycle of leader/satisfaction ratings but meh in VI scores.
I genuinely don't know how much pandemic era polling can be used to compare to previous eras.
SKS is looking old, and a bit dull. It is a real pity he stood, Labour did have much better options.
SKS seems to be following the Tony Blair picture-book on "How to Win a General Election?"
But, the thrill just isn't there, anymore.
It is the same moves, the same foreplay as Tony used, but no-one feels really excited by the prospect of precoital activity with a greying, stolid, almost sixty-year old, lawyer.
Hard not to forget, we could have had Lisa Nandy or Angela Rayner .... as LOTO
SKS polls better than his party, -2% compared to -23%, Nandy or Rayner would be overpromoted leading a city council
Just checked, Ted Cruz is up for re-election in 2024, is it possible for him to run for the GOP nomination and hold his seat?
Given how close it was last time, his sole focus should be on Texas.
Answer to your question is Yes, unless TX law has changed recently.
Note that in 1960, Lyndon Johnson was on the Texas general election ballot twice, as candidate for re-election to US Senate AND as Democratic candidate for Vice President (as JFK's running mate). He was elected VP, so gave up senate seat.
In 1984, Lloyd Benson was also on the general election ballot twice in Lone Star State, running for re-election to US Senate and also for VP (on Dem ticket with Walter Mondale); since he was NOT elected VP, Benson stayed in the Senate.
Note that Texas law thus gives a sitting US Senator the chance of retaining their seat for another full term AND also running for President OR Vice President. LBJ won both elections, so could take his (obvious) choice. Lloyd Benson lost for VP (nationally AND in Texas) but was still able to retain his senate seat.
Ted has upset some locals by legging it to Cancun during the big freeze. But it's Texas, so I guess they'll give him a pass on that, and also on his contribution to the recent failed insurrection.
He may be a tosser, but he's their kind of tosser.
Beto O'Rourke came close to bouncing "Visit Cancun" Ted back in 2018.
Cruz could lose Texas for US Senate in 2024 for same reason that Trumpsky lost re-election in 2020: the asshole factor.
BUT maybe instead he'll be just what the Republican Party is seeking for President in 2024?
Of course, a couple of months ago, some PBers were saying that Mike Pence was a shoo-in for THAT nomination!
Without Trump Pence is ahead with Cruz 4th, 1% behind Haley.
A little bit, most LOTOs generally start of with good ratings usually caused by a higher number of DKs.
There's been only one LOTO who had consistently positive ratings throughout their tenure, most LOTOs who go on to become PM have ups and down.
He's doing better than most LOTOs at this point in the cycle of leader/satisfaction ratings but meh in VI scores.
I genuinely don't know how much pandemic era polling can be used to compare to previous eras.
SKS is looking old, and a bit dull. It is a real pity he stood, Labour did have much better options.
SKS seems to be following the Tony Blair picture-book on "How to Win a General Election?"
But, the thrill just isn't there, anymore.
It is the same moves, the same foreplay as Tony used, but no-one feels really excited by the prospect of precoital activity with a greying, stolid, almost sixty-year old, lawyer.
Hard not to forget, we could have had Lisa Nandy or Angela Rayner .... as LOTO
A little bit, most LOTOs generally start of with good ratings usually caused by a higher number of DKs.
There's been only one LOTO who had consistently positive ratings throughout their tenure, most LOTOs who go on to become PM have ups and down.
He's doing better than most LOTOs at this point in the cycle of leader/satisfaction ratings but meh in VI scores.
I genuinely don't know how much pandemic era polling can be used to compare to previous eras.
SKS is looking old, and a bit dull. It is a real pity he stood, Labour did have much better options.
SKS seems to be following the Tony Blair picture-book on "How to Win a General Election?"
But, the thrill just isn't there, anymore.
It is the same moves, the same foreplay as Tony used, but no-one feels really excited by the prospect of precoital activity with a greying, stolid, almost sixty-year old, lawyer.
Hard not to forget, we could have had Lisa Nandy or Angela Rayner .... as LOTO
SKS polls better than his party, -2% compared to -23%, Nandy or Rayner would be overpromoted leading a city council
Just checked, Ted Cruz is up for re-election in 2024, is it possible for him to run for the GOP nomination and hold his seat?
Given how close it was last time, his sole focus should be on Texas.
Answer to your question is Yes, unless TX law has changed recently.
Note that in 1960, Lyndon Johnson was on the Texas general election ballot twice, as candidate for re-election to US Senate AND as Democratic candidate for Vice President (as JFK's running mate). He was elected VP, so gave up senate seat.
In 1984, Lloyd Benson was also on the general election ballot twice in Lone Star State, running for re-election to US Senate and also for VP (on Dem ticket with Walter Mondale); since he was NOT elected VP, Benson stayed in the Senate.
Note that Texas law thus gives a sitting US Senator the chance of retaining their seat for another full term AND also running for President OR Vice President. LBJ won both elections, so could take his (obvious) choice. Lloyd Benson lost for VP (nationally AND in Texas) but was still able to retain his senate seat.
Ted has upset some locals by legging it to Cancun during the big freeze. But it's Texas, so I guess they'll give him a pass on that, and also on his contribution to the recent failed insurrection.
He may be a tosser, but he's their kind of tosser.
Beto O'Rourke came close to bouncing "Visit Cancun" Ted back in 2018.
Cruz could lose Texas for US Senate in 2024 for same reason that Trumpsky lost re-election in 2020: the asshole factor.
BUT maybe instead he'll be just what the Republican Party is seeking for President in 2024?
Of course, a couple of months ago, some PBers were saying that Mike Pence was a shoo-in for THAT nomination!
Without Trump Pence is ahead with Cruz 4th, 1% behind Haley.
A little bit, most LOTOs generally start of with good ratings usually caused by a higher number of DKs.
There's been only one LOTO who had consistently positive ratings throughout their tenure, most LOTOs who go on to become PM have ups and down.
He's doing better than most LOTOs at this point in the cycle of leader/satisfaction ratings but meh in VI scores.
I genuinely don't know how much pandemic era polling can be used to compare to previous eras.
SKS is looking old, and a bit dull. It is a real pity he stood, Labour did have much better options.
SKS seems to be following the Tony Blair picture-book on "How to Win a General Election?"
But, the thrill just isn't there, anymore.
It is the same moves, the same foreplay as Tony used, but no-one feels really excited by the prospect of precoital activity with a greying, stolid, almost sixty-year old, lawyer.
Hard not to forget, we could have had Lisa Nandy or Angela Rayner .... as LOTO
Dr Rosena Allin-Khan MD is the one to watch.
Huh, Dr Hindsight? The Labour candidate who plageurised Boris' hilarious tribute to Subterranean Homesick Blues the week before he performed it.
The National League will carry on for the remainder of the season but the North and South Divisions have been declared null and void.
Subject to FA approval and it's likely Dorking and some of the NLS teams are going to complain as the NLS voted to continue playing it is the NLN teams who voted for the season to be null and void.
Just checked, Ted Cruz is up for re-election in 2024, is it possible for him to run for the GOP nomination and hold his seat?
Given how close it was last time, his sole focus should be on Texas.
Answer to your question is Yes, unless TX law has changed recently.
Note that in 1960, Lyndon Johnson was on the Texas general election ballot twice, as candidate for re-election to US Senate AND as Democratic candidate for Vice President (as JFK's running mate). He was elected VP, so gave up senate seat.
In 1984, Lloyd Benson was also on the general election ballot twice in Lone Star State, running for re-election to US Senate and also for VP (on Dem ticket with Walter Mondale); since he was NOT elected VP, Benson stayed in the Senate.
Note that Texas law thus gives a sitting US Senator the chance of retaining their seat for another full term AND also running for President OR Vice President. LBJ won both elections, so could take his (obvious) choice. Lloyd Benson lost for VP (nationally AND in Texas) but was still able to retain his senate seat.
Ted has upset some locals by legging it to Cancun during the big freeze. But it's Texas, so I guess they'll give him a pass on that, and also on his contribution to the recent failed insurrection.
He may be a tosser, but he's their kind of tosser.
Beto O'Rourke came close to bouncing "Visit Cancun" Ted back in 2018.
Cruz could lose Texas for US Senate in 2024 for same reason that Trumpsky lost re-election in 2020: the asshole factor.
BUT maybe instead he'll be just what the Republican Party is seeking for President in 2024?
Of course, a couple of months ago, some PBers were saying that Mike Pence was a shoo-in for THAT nomination!
Without Trump Pence is ahead with Cruz 4th, 1% behind Haley.
The National League will carry on for the remainder of the season but the North and South Divisions have been declared null and void.
League Two is poor, but promotion to it and relegation from it are nonetheless consequential. The National League also has a TV contract with BT Sport to fulfil.
What happens below that level matters very little in the grand scheme of things.
Just checked, Ted Cruz is up for re-election in 2024, is it possible for him to run for the GOP nomination and hold his seat?
Given how close it was last time, his sole focus should be on Texas.
Answer to your question is Yes, unless TX law has changed recently.
Note that in 1960, Lyndon Johnson was on the Texas general election ballot twice, as candidate for re-election to US Senate AND as Democratic candidate for Vice President (as JFK's running mate). He was elected VP, so gave up senate seat.
In 1984, Lloyd Benson was also on the general election ballot twice in Lone Star State, running for re-election to US Senate and also for VP (on Dem ticket with Walter Mondale); since he was NOT elected VP, Benson stayed in the Senate.
Note that Texas law thus gives a sitting US Senator the chance of retaining their seat for another full term AND also running for President OR Vice President. LBJ won both elections, so could take his (obvious) choice. Lloyd Benson lost for VP (nationally AND in Texas) but was still able to retain his senate seat.
Ted has upset some locals by legging it to Cancun during the big freeze. But it's Texas, so I guess they'll give him a pass on that, and also on his contribution to the recent failed insurrection.
He may be a tosser, but he's their kind of tosser.
Beto O'Rourke came close to bouncing "Visit Cancun" Ted back in 2018.
Cruz could lose Texas for US Senate in 2024 for same reason that Trumpsky lost re-election in 2020: the asshole factor.
BUT maybe instead he'll be just what the Republican Party is seeking for President in 2024?
Of course, a couple of months ago, some PBers were saying that Mike Pence was a shoo-in for THAT nomination!
My money is on Mitch McConnell slowly and quietly steering the GoP back to its more traditional ways. Trumpski will be eventually forgotten about, a temporary aberration and mild embarrassment that one does not mention in polite company.
If I am right, those ratings will look very different in a couple of years time. Wealth warning though - it's not a market in which I am betting, not yet anyway.
A little bit, most LOTOs generally start of with good ratings usually caused by a higher number of DKs.
There's been only one LOTO who had consistently positive ratings throughout their tenure, most LOTOs who go on to become PM have ups and down.
He's doing better than most LOTOs at this point in the cycle of leader/satisfaction ratings but meh in VI scores.
I genuinely don't know how much pandemic era polling can be used to compare to previous eras.
SKS is looking old, and a bit dull. It is a real pity he stood, Labour did have much better options.
SKS seems to be following the Tony Blair picture-book on "How to Win a General Election?"
But, the thrill just isn't there, anymore.
It is the same moves, the same foreplay as Tony used, but no-one feels really excited by the prospect of precoital activity with a greying, stolid, almost sixty-year old, lawyer.
Hard not to forget, we could have had Lisa Nandy or Angela Rayner .... as LOTO
Dr Rosena Allin-Khan MD is the one to watch.
Huh, Dr Hindsight? The Labour candidate who plageurised Boris' hilarious tribute to Subterranean Homesick Blues the week before he performed it.
A little bit, most LOTOs generally start of with good ratings usually caused by a higher number of DKs.
There's been only one LOTO who had consistently positive ratings throughout their tenure, most LOTOs who go on to become PM have ups and down.
He's doing better than most LOTOs at this point in the cycle of leader/satisfaction ratings but meh in VI scores.
I genuinely don't know how much pandemic era polling can be used to compare to previous eras.
SKS is looking old, and a bit dull. It is a real pity he stood, Labour did have much better options.
SKS seems to be following the Tony Blair picture-book on "How to Win a General Election?"
But, the thrill just isn't there, anymore.
It is the same moves, the same foreplay as Tony used, but no-one feels really excited by the prospect of precoital activity with a greying, stolid, almost sixty-year old, lawyer.
Hard not to forget, we could have had Lisa Nandy or Angela Rayner .... as LOTO
Dr Rosena Allin-Khan MD is the one to watch.
Huh, Dr Hindsight? The Labour candidate who plageurised Boris' hilarious tribute to Subterranean Homesick Blues the week before he performed it.
A little bit, most LOTOs generally start of with good ratings usually caused by a higher number of DKs.
There's been only one LOTO who had consistently positive ratings throughout their tenure, most LOTOs who go on to become PM have ups and down.
He's doing better than most LOTOs at this point in the cycle of leader/satisfaction ratings but meh in VI scores.
I genuinely don't know how much pandemic era polling can be used to compare to previous eras.
SKS is looking old, and a bit dull. It is a real pity he stood, Labour did have much better options.
SKS seems to be following the Tony Blair picture-book on "How to Win a General Election?"
But, the thrill just isn't there, anymore.
It is the same moves, the same foreplay as Tony used, but no-one feels really excited by the prospect of precoital activity with a greying, stolid, almost sixty-year old, lawyer.
Hard not to forget, we could have had Lisa Nandy or Angela Rayner .... as LOTO
Equally hard not to forget, we could have had Rebecca Long-Bailey or Richard Burgon...as LOTO
Or, had she not lost one of the World's safest Labour seats, Laura Pidcock.
Do you mind some of us have just eaten and your last statement is making me feel bilious
Doctors and public health officials have pleaded with Germans to take up AstraZeneca Covid vaccines, AFP reports. German healthcare facilities have reported several hundred thousand vials sitting unused and rampant no-shows at scheduled appointments.
Officials in Italy, Austria and Bulgaria were also starting to signal some public resistance to the British vaccine, and France’s health minister, Olivier Véran, got the jab live on television to drum up support.
“If you are given the choice between AstraZeneca now or another vaccine in a few months, you should definitely take AstraZeneca now,” implored Carsten Watzl, general secretary of the German Society for Immunology.
I wonder how many deaths Hadelstwatt will be responsible for.
A little bit, most LOTOs generally start of with good ratings usually caused by a higher number of DKs.
There's been only one LOTO who had consistently positive ratings throughout their tenure, most LOTOs who go on to become PM have ups and down.
He's doing better than most LOTOs at this point in the cycle of leader/satisfaction ratings but meh in VI scores.
I genuinely don't know how much pandemic era polling can be used to compare to previous eras.
SKS is looking old, and a bit dull. It is a real pity he stood, Labour did have much better options.
SKS seems to be following the Tony Blair picture-book on "How to Win a General Election?"
But, the thrill just isn't there, anymore.
It is the same moves, the same foreplay as Tony used, but no-one feels really excited by the prospect of precoital activity with a greying, stolid, almost sixty-year old, lawyer.
Hard not to forget, we could have had Lisa Nandy or Angela Rayner .... as LOTO
Dr Rosena Allin-Khan MD is the one to watch.
Huh, Dr Hindsight? The Labour candidate who plageurised Boris' hilarious tribute to Subterranean Homesick Blues the week before he performed it.
It was Love Actually.
Oh yeah! I always mix up Andrew Lincoln and Bob Dylan.
Starmer seems far younger than the likes of Churchill- Attlee - Macmillan - Douglas-Home - Callaghan - or even Wilson during his second term.
I was going to say that the world has moved on since 1974, but in fact I don't think that Corbyn's age particularly counted against him either. It was merely almost everything he said and did that finished him off in the end.
Anyway, Starmer doesn't seem particularly old to me. Dull, possibly, but that's not the same thing at all.
Doctors and public health officials have pleaded with Germans to take up AstraZeneca Covid vaccines, AFP reports. German healthcare facilities have reported several hundred thousand vials sitting unused and rampant no-shows at scheduled appointments.
Officials in Italy, Austria and Bulgaria were also starting to signal some public resistance to the British vaccine, and France’s health minister, Olivier Véran, got the jab live on television to drum up support.
“If you are given the choice between AstraZeneca now or another vaccine in a few months, you should definitely take AstraZeneca now,” implored Carsten Watzl, general secretary of the German Society for Immunology.
I wonder how many deaths Hadelstwatt will be responsible for.
Yes, quite extensively downthread. It's all very sad.
On topic, in the run up to the 2015 GE I did a piece which pointed out that the party that led on both the leadership ratings and best to run the economy metric won the general election.
The only curio was 1997 where the Tories led on the economic question but trailed Blair so much on the leadership to be odd, especially after Black Wednesday.
I might update that piece.
Gross or net leadership ratings? Or preferred PM?
Currently both leaders can claim to be in the lead depending upon how you define lead.
Net satisfaction ratings.
So you think Starmer is tanking at the moment rather than holding steady?
A little bit, most LOTOs generally start of with good ratings usually caused by a higher number of DKs.
There's been only one LOTO who had consistently positive ratings throughout their tenure, most LOTOs who go on to become PM have ups and down.
He's doing better than most LOTOs at this point in the cycle of leader/satisfaction ratings but meh in VI scores.
I genuinely don't know how much pandemic era polling can be used to compare to previous eras.
I agree, compared to recent leaders of the opposition Starmer is certainly doing better than Hague and IDS and Miliband and Corbyn and Foot were at this stage certainly.
At the moment while he is clearly nowhere near Blair levels, he is doing at least as well as Howard, Kinnock and Cameron were just under a year in post.
He's in the category of "Hmm. I suppose they'll do." Which is roughly where Thatcher was just before the Winter of Discontent, or Cameron just before the GFC. Net negative, but not by much.
So one of two things happens from here.
One is that the Johnson government is a success. In which case, ghastly as they are, they will deservedly win. I probably still won't vote for them, but hey ho.
The other is that the Johnson government is a failure. In which case, Starmer has got enough "Oh, OK then." to get into No 10. The point is that failed LotOs don't even have that. Think about EdM or IDS. (Actually don't. It might give you nightmares.) If Johnsonism fails, no amount of brio will save him, and being boring might well be a benefit.
Interestingly, Andy Wightman MSP, the committee member who has taken the most stick for blocking the Salmond submission, is also a member of the SPCB......
Having recently resigned from the Scottish Greens, he is currently assessing his chances of standing as in independent (or for another party?) in the regional list.
It's probably a bad idea and could potentially stoke up racial tensions, but I had a mad idea for a videa to promote BAME take-up of vaccination.
Start with news stories about rich and powerful people jumping the queue (like that casino owner who flew to the Yukon to pretend to be a native American to get the vaccine earlier, or politicians in some countries making sure they get vaccinated first).
Then have BAME people saying:
- "No, let some rich white guy have mine; I'll just go to the back of the queue." - "No, I've fallen for the propaganda online that's meant to turn me off this, so someone richer can get further up the queue" - "No, we shouldn't forget those poor white millionaires who want theirs sooner." - "It's fine, I'll take my chance with slowly choking to death."
Finishing with a trusted BAME celebrity saying: "If you want to fall for it and give up your place in line, that's up to you. Me, well, when it's my turn - without jumping the queue - anyone gets in my way and they'll have footprints on them."
And words written on it: "Take what's yours. Take your shot."
Just update the Don't Die Of Ignorance AIDS campaign.
Another rare occasion when the Government got something exactly right in my opinion. Those adverts scared the bejesus out of me as single 20 year old. Probably the best advertising campaign I have ever seen.
So much so that I thought sex was intrinsically dangerous for most of the 1990s.
You seem to like RT. He's all yours, come and get him. We don't want him.
RT will gain seats from Labour in May
Paul would have gained seats from Labour too. I hate to say this but RT's seats will be courtesy of Johnson.
It will be both, while I expect the Tories will lose seats in the county elections in May, even if they stay ahead overall, Khan will be re elected in London and Labour will gain Assembly seats, Labour could gain the WM Mayoralty and take second from the Tories in Scotland, RT I think will gain seats in the Senedd.
If so the Welsh Tories under his leadership should be able to claim the best results for the Tories of the night
Guardian breaking: Doctors and public health officials have pleaded with Germans to take up AstraZeneca Covid vaccines against the coronavirus, AFP reports. German healthcare facilities have reported several hundred thousand vials sitting unused and rampant no-shows at scheduled appointments.
Officials in Italy, Austria and Bulgaria were also starting to signal some public resistance to the British vaccine, and France’s health minister, Olivier Véran, got the jab live on television to drum up support.
“If you are given the choice between AstraZeneca now or another vaccine in a few months, you should definitely take AstraZeneca now,” implored Carsten Watzl, general secretary of the German Society for Immunology.
The health minister, Jens Spahn, echoed the message, calling all three vaccines approved in the EU – AstraZeneca, BioNTech/Pfizer and Moderna – “safe and effective” despite varying levels of efficacy.
Guardian breaking: Doctors and public health officials have pleaded with Germans to take up AstraZeneca Covid vaccines against the coronavirus, AFP reports. German healthcare facilities have reported several hundred thousand vials sitting unused and rampant no-shows at scheduled appointments.
Officials in Italy, Austria and Bulgaria were also starting to signal some public resistance to the British vaccine, and France’s health minister, Olivier Véran, got the jab live on television to drum up support.
“If you are given the choice between AstraZeneca now or another vaccine in a few months, you should definitely take AstraZeneca now,” implored Carsten Watzl, general secretary of the German Society for Immunology.
The health minister, Jens Spahn, echoed the message, calling all three vaccines approved in the EU – AstraZeneca, BioNTech/Pfizer and Moderna – “safe and effective” despite varying levels of efficacy.
Just checked, Ted Cruz is up for re-election in 2024, is it possible for him to run for the GOP nomination and hold his seat?
Given how close it was last time, his sole focus should be on Texas.
Answer to your question is Yes, unless TX law has changed recently.
Note that in 1960, Lyndon Johnson was on the Texas general election ballot twice, as candidate for re-election to US Senate AND as Democratic candidate for Vice President (as JFK's running mate). He was elected VP, so gave up senate seat.
In 1984, Lloyd Benson was also on the general election ballot twice in Lone Star State, running for re-election to US Senate and also for VP (on Dem ticket with Walter Mondale); since he was NOT elected VP, Benson stayed in the Senate.
Note that Texas law thus gives a sitting US Senator the chance of retaining their seat for another full term AND also running for President OR Vice President. LBJ won both elections, so could take his (obvious) choice. Lloyd Benson lost for VP (nationally AND in Texas) but was still able to retain his senate seat.
Ted has upset some locals by legging it to Cancun during the big freeze. But it's Texas, so I guess they'll give him a pass on that, and also on his contribution to the recent failed insurrection.
He may be a tosser, but he's their kind of tosser.
Beto O'Rourke came close to bouncing "Visit Cancun" Ted back in 2018.
Cruz could lose Texas for US Senate in 2024 for same reason that Trumpsky lost re-election in 2020: the asshole factor.
BUT maybe instead he'll be just what the Republican Party is seeking for President in 2024?
Of course, a couple of months ago, some PBers were saying that Mike Pence was a shoo-in for THAT nomination!
Without Trump Pence is ahead with Cruz 4th, 1% behind Haley.
Haley is the best early bet. I think Trump is going to have other problems.
Hayley might be the best bet to win the general, she has near zero chance of winning the primaries in my view
I'd not be so sure. Haley can hit the populist button ok without the Jim Jones cultishness and I suspect the GOP as PtP points out below is going to steer itself back onto somewhat less chaotic ground. Its strategy to do that means getting rid of the Trump family and a few others. I think we have possibly over estimated the Trump factor especially as he gets into trouble elsewhere and if he gets into diffs, his family will go with him. There is still a big slice of that GOP vote that isn't in the Trump cult and will make a choice on the candidate. Those that are in that cult, are just as likely to be disillusioned as organising to stop anyone they don't like.
There are ifs and buts in that analysis there but that's not surprising. |You can see Trump as a direction or an aberration. Right now I'd punt that's its an aberration.
On topic, in the run up to the 2015 GE I did a piece which pointed out that the party that led on both the leadership ratings and best to run the economy metric won the general election.
The only curio was 1997 where the Tories led on the economic question but trailed Blair so much on the leadership to be odd, especially after Black Wednesday.
I might update that piece.
Gross or net leadership ratings? Or preferred PM?
Currently both leaders can claim to be in the lead depending upon how you define lead.
Net satisfaction ratings.
So you think Starmer is tanking at the moment rather than holding steady?
A little bit, most LOTOs generally start of with good ratings usually caused by a higher number of DKs.
There's been only one LOTO who had consistently positive ratings throughout their tenure, most LOTOs who go on to become PM have ups and down.
He's doing better than most LOTOs at this point in the cycle of leader/satisfaction ratings but meh in VI scores.
I genuinely don't know how much pandemic era polling can be used to compare to previous eras.
I agree, compared to recent leaders of the opposition Starmer is certainly doing better than Hague and IDS and Miliband and Corbyn and Foot were at this stage certainly.
At the moment while he is clearly nowhere near Blair levels, he is doing at least as well as Howard, Kinnock and Cameron were just under a year in post.
He's in the category of "Hmm. I suppose they'll do." Which is roughly where Thatcher was just before the Winter of Discontent, or Cameron just before the GFC. Net negative, but not by much.
So one of two things happens from here.
One is that the Johnson government is a success. In which case, ghastly as they are, they will deservedly win. I probably still won't vote for them, but hey ho.
The other is that the Johnson government is a failure. In which case, Starmer has got enough "Oh, OK then." to get into No 10. The point is that failed LotOs don't even have that. Think about EdM or IDS. (Actually don't. It might give you nightmares.) If Johnsonism fails, no amount of brio will save him, and being boring might well be a benefit.
I think the key advantage Starmer has is nobody hates him.
He may be boring and not so far dazzlingly effective, but he’s not obviously deranged, stupid, or nasty.
There won’t be any room for a ‘vote Tory to keep Labour out‘ campaign as there was in 2017 and 2019.
Whether that will make enough of a difference to let him regain ground I don’t know.
You seem to like RT. He's all yours, come and get him. We don't want him.
RT will gain seats from Labour in May
Paul would have gained seats from Labour too. I hate to say this but RT's seats will be courtesy of Johnson.
It will be both, while I expect the Tories will lose seats in the county elections in May, even if they stay ahead overall, Khan will be re elected in London and Labour will gain Assembly seats, Labour could gain the WM Mayoralty and take second from the Tories in Scotland, RT I think will gain seats in the Senedd.
If so the Welsh Tories under his leadership should be able to claim the best results for the Tories of the night
Believe me, you are the only voter I know who rates RT, and you don't have a vote in this election. I suspect RT doubts his own ability to the point where he will probably vote PC.
On topic, in the run up to the 2015 GE I did a piece which pointed out that the party that led on both the leadership ratings and best to run the economy metric won the general election.
The only curio was 1997 where the Tories led on the economic question but trailed Blair so much on the leadership to be odd, especially after Black Wednesday.
I might update that piece.
Gross or net leadership ratings? Or preferred PM?
Currently both leaders can claim to be in the lead depending upon how you define lead.
Net satisfaction ratings.
So you think Starmer is tanking at the moment rather than holding steady?
A little bit, most LOTOs generally start of with good ratings usually caused by a higher number of DKs.
There's been only one LOTO who had consistently positive ratings throughout their tenure, most LOTOs who go on to become PM have ups and down.
He's doing better than most LOTOs at this point in the cycle of leader/satisfaction ratings but meh in VI scores.
I genuinely don't know how much pandemic era polling can be used to compare to previous eras.
I agree, compared to recent leaders of the opposition Starmer is certainly doing better than Hague and IDS and Miliband and Corbyn and Foot were at this stage certainly.
At the moment while he is clearly nowhere near Blair levels, he is doing at least as well as Howard, Kinnock and Cameron were just under a year in post.
He's in the category of "Hmm. I suppose they'll do." Which is roughly where Thatcher was just before the Winter of Discontent, or Cameron just before the GFC. Net negative, but not by much.
So one of two things happens from here.
One is that the Johnson government is a success. In which case, ghastly as they are, they will deservedly win. I probably still won't vote for them, but hey ho.
The other is that the Johnson government is a failure. In which case, Starmer has got enough "Oh, OK then." to get into No 10. The point is that failed LotOs don't even have that. Think about EdM or IDS. (Actually don't. It might give you nightmares.) If Johnsonism fails, no amount of brio will save him, and being boring might well be a benefit.
I think the key advantage Starmer has is nobody hates him.
He may be boring and not so far dazzlingly effective, but he’s not obviously deranged, stupid, or nasty.
There won’t be any room for a ‘vote Tory to keep Labour out‘ campaign as there was in 2017 and 2019.
Whether that will make enough of a difference to let him regain ground I don’t know.
Hard to see him not regaining substantial ground, just by not being as incompetent and nasty as Labour were in 2019. Whether it's sufficient ground to win, that remains to be seen.
You seem to like RT. He's all yours, come and get him. We don't want him.
RT will gain seats from Labour in May
Paul would have gained seats from Labour too. I hate to say this but RT's seats will be courtesy of Johnson.
It will be both, while I expect the Tories will lose seats in the county elections in May, even if they stay ahead overall, Khan will be re elected in London and Labour will gain Assembly seats, Labour could gain the WM Mayoralty and take second from the Tories in Scotland, RT I think will gain seats in the Senedd.
If so the Welsh Tories under his leadership should be able to claim the best results for the Tories of the night
Believe me, you are the only voter I know who rates RT, and you don't have a vote in this election. I suspect RT doubts his own ability to the point where he will probably vote PC.
RT I predict will have the best performance for any Tory leader in a Senedd or Welsh Assembly election in May since it was founded in 1999, he is certainly better than Rod Richards and Nick Bourne were.
I may have an interest, I sat in the front seat with RT when campaigning in 2011 and had a good chat with him
Global travel site Big 7 Travel has released the official 2021 list of the ’25 Best UK Staycations’; the top ten, in order:
Cornwall – England The Lake District – England Yorkshire Dales – England Edinburgh – Scotland Loch Lomond – Scotland Isle of Wight – England Norfolk Broads – England Bath – England Ballycastle – Northern Ireland Manchester – England
6. Isle of Wight
This island off England’s southeast coast is famous for many things, from its stunning sandy beaches to its vibrant local culture and rich prehistoric history. One of the island’s biggest claims to fames is its plethora of fossils that have led to the discovery of more than 25 different dinosaurs that called Isle of Wight home in their day. For more recent history, there’s Queen Victoria’s royal former residence and Italian Renaissance dream in East Cowes, the Osborne House. And for a break from the tranquil sandy beaches, head to The Needles rock formation off the west end of the island.
Excellent. They've missed off the Hebrides (excepting Skye, and that no longer counts), Sutherland and 90% of the Highlands.
I hope everybody else does too.
They've also missed the east of England: East Anglia. Last summer I did an AMAZING roadtrip with the kidz, from spooky Essex estuaries (Osea island) to quaint, lovely Maldon, through gorgeous Lavenham and poetic Bury St Edmunds, via Constable country, to a few nights in Cambridge (arguably the most beautiful small city in the world, and also, maybe, the most fascinating)
Eastern England is weirdly neglected. Long may it remain so. Marvellous stuff. And great food all the way.
You seem to like RT. He's all yours, come and get him. We don't want him.
RT will gain seats from Labour in May
Paul would have gained seats from Labour too. I hate to say this but RT's seats will be courtesy of Johnson.
It will be both, while I expect the Tories will lose seats in the county elections in May, even if they stay ahead overall, Khan will be re elected in London and Labour will gain Assembly seats, Labour could gain the WM Mayoralty and take second from the Tories in Scotland, RT I think will gain seats in the Senedd.
If so the Welsh Tories under his leadership should be able to claim the best results for the Tories of the night
Believe me, you are the only voter I know who rates RT, and you don't have a vote in this election. I suspect RT doubts his own ability to the point where he will probably vote PC.
RT I predict will have the best performance for any Tory leader in a Senedd or Welsh Assembly election in May since it was founded in 1999, he is certainly better than Rod Richards and Nick Bourne were.
And whoever replaces him I predict you wkll predict will be the best too.
So the one body that wasn't stuffed with SNP and Green members (an accidental omission one assumes), votes that there is no reason why documents that may be published legally, may not be published legally. Surprise surprise.
Am I the only one who is completely lost with all this?
Let me try and help.
1. This committee was set up to investigate why the initial complaints procedure (prior to the police case) against Alex Salmond was so mishandled that the Scottish Government ended up having to pay him £500,000 of taxpayers' money. It is lead by an SNP MSP, and has on it an SNP/Green majority of 5 to 4.
2. Alex Salmond's allegation (made very powerfully it must be said) is that the complaints were deliberately orchestrated, pushed, exaggerated, and to some extent invented, with the intention of destroying his reputation and preventing him ever returning to front-line politics. He also alleges that Nicola Sturgeon misled the SP about the nature of her meetings with him.
3. Salmond has submitted evidence of the above to the enquiry, but they have thus far refused to publish it (not parts of it - all of it), so it cannot form part of their report. They have also warned Salmond that if his verbal evidence strays into proscribed areas, he could be subject to criminal prosecution - without actually telling him what areas to stay clear of. The refusal to publish is based on a court order by Lady Dorrian, trial judge in Salmond's sexual assault case, protecting (I think) the complainants' identities.
4. The Spectator brought a legal case to modify this court order and prove that Salmond's evidence could indeed be published. Heard by Lady Dorrian, who stated that the Scottish Government's interpretation of her order to prevent Salmond's evidence being published was 'absurd'. She amended her court order to allow publication.
5. Despite this, and the evidence being published by the Spectator, the enquiry still refused to publish the evidence, but did agree to hand the issue to the SP procedural committee for adjudication.
6. This committee has now declared it is legal to publish. Salmond will now be able to testify without threat of criminal proceedings against him.
They threatened him with prosecution over verbal evidence to a parliamentary committee?
I thought that in itself would be illegal as such occasions are privileged?
Certainly Westminster has got very hot and bothered when threats are made to witnesses in their inquiries.
For those still looking for an answer, AFAIK the Scottish Parliament has privilege against defamation, but not contempt of court.
On topic, in the run up to the 2015 GE I did a piece which pointed out that the party that led on both the leadership ratings and best to run the economy metric won the general election.
The only curio was 1997 where the Tories led on the economic question but trailed Blair so much on the leadership to be odd, especially after Black Wednesday.
I might update that piece.
Gross or net leadership ratings? Or preferred PM?
Currently both leaders can claim to be in the lead depending upon how you define lead.
Net satisfaction ratings.
So you think Starmer is tanking at the moment rather than holding steady?
A little bit, most LOTOs generally start of with good ratings usually caused by a higher number of DKs.
There's been only one LOTO who had consistently positive ratings throughout their tenure, most LOTOs who go on to become PM have ups and down.
He's doing better than most LOTOs at this point in the cycle of leader/satisfaction ratings but meh in VI scores.
I genuinely don't know how much pandemic era polling can be used to compare to previous eras.
I agree, compared to recent leaders of the opposition Starmer is certainly doing better than Hague and IDS and Miliband and Corbyn and Foot were at this stage certainly.
At the moment while he is clearly nowhere near Blair levels, he is doing at least as well as Howard, Kinnock and Cameron were just under a year in post.
He's in the category of "Hmm. I suppose they'll do." Which is roughly where Thatcher was just before the Winter of Discontent, or Cameron just before the GFC. Net negative, but not by much.
So one of two things happens from here.
One is that the Johnson government is a success. In which case, ghastly as they are, they will deservedly win. I probably still won't vote for them, but hey ho.
The other is that the Johnson government is a failure. In which case, Starmer has got enough "Oh, OK then." to get into No 10. The point is that failed LotOs don't even have that. Think about EdM or IDS. (Actually don't. It might give you nightmares.) If Johnsonism fails, no amount of brio will save him, and being boring might well be a benefit.
I think the key advantage Starmer has is nobody hates him.
He may be boring and not so far dazzlingly effective, but he’s not obviously deranged, stupid, or nasty.
There won’t be any room for a ‘vote Tory to keep Labour out‘ campaign as there was in 2017 and 2019.
Whether that will make enough of a difference to let him regain ground I don’t know.
I agree re: Starmer is not Corbyn, though if the Corbyn Left make enough trouble for him (i.e. if there's any suggestion that the lunatics are getting ready to recapture the asylum) then that may not help very much.
There's also ample room for a 'vote Tory to keep the SNP out' campaign in England, as per 2015.
How far Labour can progress depends in the first instance, one would assume, on how bad the economic situation is come the next election, and in the second instance on the extent to which voters are convinced that Labour would do any better than the Tories have managed by that point.
You seem to like RT. He's all yours, come and get him. We don't want him.
RT will gain seats from Labour in May
Paul would have gained seats from Labour too. I hate to say this but RT's seats will be courtesy of Johnson.
It will be both, while I expect the Tories will lose seats in the county elections in May, even if they stay ahead overall, Khan will be re elected in London and Labour will gain Assembly seats, Labour could gain the WM Mayoralty and take second from the Tories in Scotland, RT I think will gain seats in the Senedd.
If so the Welsh Tories under his leadership should be able to claim the best results for the Tories of the night
Believe me, you are the only voter I know who rates RT, and you don't have a vote in this election. I suspect RT doubts his own ability to the point where he will probably vote PC.
RT I predict will have the best performance for any Tory leader in a Senedd or Welsh Assembly election in May since it was founded in 1999, he is certainly better than Rod Richards and Nick Bourne were.
You are right, he will. I know he is a personal acquaintance of yours but RT really is the bottom of a very deep barrel.
Drakeford's Covid performance since the fire break has been universally condemned, the vaccine narrative is one of abject failure (despite the stats) and the lockdown in Wales is universally pinned on Drakeford. So in essence, vaccine success belongs to Johnson, lockdown failure belongs to Drakeford. RT doesn't get a mention. He is rubbish!
Global travel site Big 7 Travel has released the official 2021 list of the ’25 Best UK Staycations’; the top ten, in order:
Cornwall – England The Lake District – England Yorkshire Dales – England Edinburgh – Scotland Loch Lomond – Scotland Isle of Wight – England Norfolk Broads – England Bath – England Ballycastle – Northern Ireland Manchester – England
6. Isle of Wight
This island off England’s southeast coast is famous for many things, from its stunning sandy beaches to its vibrant local culture and rich prehistoric history. One of the island’s biggest claims to fames is its plethora of fossils that have led to the discovery of more than 25 different dinosaurs that called Isle of Wight home in their day. For more recent history, there’s Queen Victoria’s royal former residence and Italian Renaissance dream in East Cowes, the Osborne House. And for a break from the tranquil sandy beaches, head to The Needles rock formation off the west end of the island.
Excellent. They've missed off the Hebrides (excepting Skye, and that no longer counts), Sutherland and 90% of the Highlands.
I hope everybody else does too.
They've also missed the east of England: East Anglia. Last summer I did an AMAZING roadtrip with the kidz, from spooky Essex estuaries (Osea island) to quaint, lovely Maldon, through gorgeous Lavenham and poetic Bury St Edmunds, via Constable country, to a few nights in Cambridge (arguably the most beautiful small city in the world, and also, maybe, the most fascinating)
Eastern England is weirdly neglected. Long may it remain so. Marvellous stuff. And great food all the way.
The East tends to be conflated in most people's minds with the Fens: a billiard table flat, dull as ditchwater landscape filled with nothing but thousands and thousands of potato and sugar beet fields (although even the Fens have Ely, which is lovely and well worth a day trip if you've never been.) But yes, if that puts a load of potential visitors off then so much the better. More room for the rest of us to breathe.
I'm not a linguist but to me they seem entirely grammatically correct. I don't understand which other pronouns would be better.
They = the subject referred to (two subjects both referred to separately as they) Our = collective, everyone
That's the right grammar isn't it?
I’d suggest if he didn’t want to imply a group of outsiders claiming rights to participate in something that doesn’t belong to them, the sentence would have been constructed rather more carefully - and in particular ‘our’ would be seen to attach itself to BAME rather than elections.
On topic, in the run up to the 2015 GE I did a piece which pointed out that the party that led on both the leadership ratings and best to run the economy metric won the general election.
The only curio was 1997 where the Tories led on the economic question but trailed Blair so much on the leadership to be odd, especially after Black Wednesday.
I might update that piece.
Gross or net leadership ratings? Or preferred PM?
Currently both leaders can claim to be in the lead depending upon how you define lead.
Net satisfaction ratings.
So you think Starmer is tanking at the moment rather than holding steady?
A little bit, most LOTOs generally start of with good ratings usually caused by a higher number of DKs.
There's been only one LOTO who had consistently positive ratings throughout their tenure, most LOTOs who go on to become PM have ups and down.
He's doing better than most LOTOs at this point in the cycle of leader/satisfaction ratings but meh in VI scores.
I genuinely don't know how much pandemic era polling can be used to compare to previous eras.
True, that is a black swan. Recency bias will mean Boris benefits from the vaccine at the mo rather than be blamed by some people for the way the pandemic has hit the UK. Boris' ratings improving needn't mean Sir Keirs go south though need it?
On topic, in the run up to the 2015 GE I did a piece which pointed out that the party that led on both the leadership ratings and best to run the economy metric won the general election.
The only curio was 1997 where the Tories led on the economic question but trailed Blair so much on the leadership to be odd, especially after Black Wednesday.
I might update that piece.
Gross or net leadership ratings? Or preferred PM?
Currently both leaders can claim to be in the lead depending upon how you define lead.
Net satisfaction ratings.
So you think Starmer is tanking at the moment rather than holding steady?
A little bit, most LOTOs generally start of with good ratings usually caused by a higher number of DKs.
There's been only one LOTO who had consistently positive ratings throughout their tenure, most LOTOs who go on to become PM have ups and down.
He's doing better than most LOTOs at this point in the cycle of leader/satisfaction ratings but meh in VI scores.
I genuinely don't know how much pandemic era polling can be used to compare to previous eras.
I agree, compared to recent leaders of the opposition Starmer is certainly doing better than Hague and IDS and Miliband and Corbyn and Foot were at this stage certainly.
At the moment while he is clearly nowhere near Blair levels, he is doing at least as well as Howard, Kinnock and Cameron were just under a year in post.
He's in the category of "Hmm. I suppose they'll do." Which is roughly where Thatcher was just before the Winter of Discontent, or Cameron just before the GFC. Net negative, but not by much.
So one of two things happens from here.
One is that the Johnson government is a success. In which case, ghastly as they are, they will deservedly win. I probably still won't vote for them, but hey ho.
The other is that the Johnson government is a failure. In which case, Starmer has got enough "Oh, OK then." to get into No 10. The point is that failed LotOs don't even have that. Think about EdM or IDS. (Actually don't. It might give you nightmares.) If Johnsonism fails, no amount of brio will save him, and being boring might well be a benefit.
I think the key advantage Starmer has is nobody hates him.
He may be boring and not so far dazzlingly effective, but he’s not obviously deranged, stupid, or nasty.
There won’t be any room for a ‘vote Tory to keep Labour out‘ campaign as there was in 2017 and 2019.
Whether that will make enough of a difference to let him regain ground I don’t know.
Nobody hated Ed Miliband.
Just that the voters didn't warm to the aloof N Londoner either.
Guardian breaking: Doctors and public health officials have pleaded with Germans to take up AstraZeneca Covid vaccines against the coronavirus, AFP reports. German healthcare facilities have reported several hundred thousand vials sitting unused and rampant no-shows at scheduled appointments.
Officials in Italy, Austria and Bulgaria were also starting to signal some public resistance to the British vaccine, and France’s health minister, Olivier Véran, got the jab live on television to drum up support.
“If you are given the choice between AstraZeneca now or another vaccine in a few months, you should definitely take AstraZeneca now,” implored Carsten Watzl, general secretary of the German Society for Immunology.
The health minister, Jens Spahn, echoed the message, calling all three vaccines approved in the EU – AstraZeneca, BioNTech/Pfizer and Moderna – “safe and effective” despite varying levels of efficacy.
Fucking idiot French president, take a bow
Don't forget German equivalent of FT....
And the journalists haven't even been reprimanded, let alone sacked, for that outrageous Fake News, which will now cost thousands of EU lives
Remember this: all critics of British media. If this had happened in the UK, the hacks would have been sacked next day. But in Germany, they just trundle on, in serious positions on a serious paper, unperturbed by the fact they published, then doubled down on, a series of ridiculous and life-endangering falsehoods.
The 2nd Season of Covid, with all its various, gruesome episodes, could be entitled: This Is Why Brexit (for multiple reasons.)
A little bit, most LOTOs generally start of with good ratings usually caused by a higher number of DKs.
There's been only one LOTO who had consistently positive ratings throughout their tenure, most LOTOs who go on to become PM have ups and down.
He's doing better than most LOTOs at this point in the cycle of leader/satisfaction ratings but meh in VI scores.
I genuinely don't know how much pandemic era polling can be used to compare to previous eras.
SKS is looking old, and a bit dull. It is a real pity he stood, Labour did have much better options.
SKS seems to be following the Tony Blair picture-book on "How to Win a General Election?"
But, the thrill just isn't there, anymore.
It is the same moves, the same foreplay as Tony used, but no-one feels really excited by the prospect of precoital activity with a greying, stolid, almost sixty-year old, lawyer.
Hard not to forget, we could have had Lisa Nandy or Angela Rayner .... as LOTO
Jess Phillips - a mix of Starmer politics and Corbyn passion. I think that is what Labour need
Interestingly, Andy Wightman MSP, the committee member who has taken the most stick for blocking the Salmond submission, is also a member of the SPCB......
Having recently resigned from the Scottish Greens, he is currently assessing his chances of standing as in independent (or for another party?) in the regional list.
EDITED - Wightman recused himself from taking part in the decision.
Re: the Republican nomination for President in 2024, note that, in field where You-Know-Who is NOT running, two of the four hopefuls with current % support above 5%, Ted Cruz is Latino and Nicki Haley is Asian.
I mention this, because a successful strategy for the GOP in local, legislative, congressional AND statewide races across the US, has been to nominate conservatives who are NOT average White guys. Granted, this has not been a mass phenomena BUT there are enough instances to show it CAN work in contested races & jursidictions.
For example, take US Rep. Jaime Herrera-Beutler (R-WA State) who has morphed from an identikit GOP conservative into a storm center for "Never-Again Trump" Republicans.
JHB was a young congressional assistant when the Republican party appointed her to fill a legislative vacancy created when a GOP state representative, an evangelical Christian fire-fighter (or visa versa) was caught up in a gay sex scandal and forced to resign. Herrera Beutler was selected because she was also an evangelical conservative (and visa versa), BUT she was also a she. At the next election, she won handily.
So JHB was available a few years later, when there was an open-seat race for US House in southwest WA State, in a district then held by a Democrat. She was the early pick of the GOP establishment, on the grounds that she was conservative enough for the base AND had cross-over appeal to Dems & independents as a woman AND as a Latina.
Fifteen million vaccination target smashed. That is the only stat that counts.
If by May we are looking at total Covid deaths of circa 140,000 - twice civilian deaths during World War 2- it will not look good for Johnson . I suspect that we are now at peak vaccine boost re- poll ratings - though well below the ratings seen in April 2000.
A little bit, most LOTOs generally start of with good ratings usually caused by a higher number of DKs.
There's been only one LOTO who had consistently positive ratings throughout their tenure, most LOTOs who go on to become PM have ups and down.
He's doing better than most LOTOs at this point in the cycle of leader/satisfaction ratings but meh in VI scores.
I genuinely don't know how much pandemic era polling can be used to compare to previous eras.
SKS is looking old, and a bit dull. It is a real pity he stood, Labour did have much better options.
SKS seems to be following the Tony Blair picture-book on "How to Win a General Election?"
But, the thrill just isn't there, anymore.
It is the same moves, the same foreplay as Tony used, but no-one feels really excited by the prospect of precoital activity with a greying, stolid, almost sixty-year old, lawyer.
Hard not to forget, we could have had Lisa Nandy or Angela Rayner .... as LOTO
Jess Phillips - a mix of Starmer politics and Corbyn passion. I think that is what Labour need
You certainly can’t accuse her of being your typical politician. I’m not particularly keen, but she’d mix things up a bit, that’s for sure.
I'm not a linguist but to me they seem entirely grammatically correct. I don't understand which other pronouns would be better.
They = the subject referred to (two subjects both referred to separately as they) Our = collective, everyone
That's the right grammar isn't it?
I’d suggest if he didn’t want to imply a group of outsiders claiming rights to participate in something that doesn’t belong to them, the sentence would have been constructed rather more carefully - and in particular ‘our’ would be seen to attach itself to BAME rather than elections.
Why? I don't read that into it at all.
"The Left thinks so poorly" is making it clear the Left thinks what follows, he doesn't agree.
"reckon they're incapable of securing a form of ID" they're refers to the people the Left think poorly of and he's saying they're not incapable.
"in our elections" clearly refers our to being the elections. Which we're all entitled to vote in and he thinks BAME can rightly get ID to vote in and the Left are wrong to think they're incapable.
What's wrong with any of that? BAME people are not incapable, he's right on that.
Fifteen million vaccination target smashed. That is the only stat that counts.
If by May we are looking at total Covid deaths of circa 140,000 - twice civilian deaths during World War 2- it will not look good for Johnson . I suspect that we are now at peak vaccine boost re- poll ratings - though well below the ratings seen in April 2000.
Because Labours big idea of shutting the zoos would have worked wonders right.......
Global travel site Big 7 Travel has released the official 2021 list of the ’25 Best UK Staycations’; the top ten, in order:
Cornwall – England The Lake District – England Yorkshire Dales – England Edinburgh – Scotland Loch Lomond – Scotland Isle of Wight – England Norfolk Broads – England Bath – England Ballycastle – Northern Ireland Manchester – England
6. Isle of Wight
This island off England’s southeast coast is famous for many things, from its stunning sandy beaches to its vibrant local culture and rich prehistoric history. One of the island’s biggest claims to fames is its plethora of fossils that have led to the discovery of more than 25 different dinosaurs that called Isle of Wight home in their day. For more recent history, there’s Queen Victoria’s royal former residence and Italian Renaissance dream in East Cowes, the Osborne House. And for a break from the tranquil sandy beaches, head to The Needles rock formation off the west end of the island.
Excellent. They've missed off the Hebrides (excepting Skye, and that no longer counts), Sutherland and 90% of the Highlands.
I hope everybody else does too.
They've also missed the east of England: East Anglia. Last summer I did an AMAZING roadtrip with the kidz, from spooky Essex estuaries (Osea island) to quaint, lovely Maldon, through gorgeous Lavenham and poetic Bury St Edmunds, via Constable country, to a few nights in Cambridge (arguably the most beautiful small city in the world, and also, maybe, the most fascinating)
Eastern England is weirdly neglected. Long may it remain so. Marvellous stuff. And great food all the way.
The East tends to be conflated in most people's minds with the Fens: a billiard table flat, dull as ditchwater landscape filled with nothing but thousands and thousands of potato and sugar beet fields (although even the Fens have Ely, which is lovely and well worth a day trip if you've never been.) But yes, if that puts a load of potential visitors off then so much the better. More room for the rest of us to breathe.
I hear amazing things of north Norfolk (never been): genuine sense of wildness, seals on beaches, superb seafood....
The East is the untouched corner of the UK, tourist-wise. Probably as it has such a bad rep from a few hideous resorts, from Clacton to Yarmouth, whereas most of it is lovely, and in places like Suffolk, stunning.
Also, one of the sunniest regions in Britain, alongside south Sussex and the Channel Isles.
Fifteen million vaccination target smashed. That is the only stat that counts.
If by May we are looking at total Covid deaths of circa 140,000 - twice civilian deaths during World War 2- it will not look good for Johnson . I suspect that we are now at peak vaccine boost re- poll ratings - though well below the ratings seen in April 2000.
I think Johnson's popularity will wane on the back of the forthcoming economic news.
Global travel site Big 7 Travel has released the official 2021 list of the ’25 Best UK Staycations’; the top ten, in order:
Cornwall – England The Lake District – England Yorkshire Dales – England Edinburgh – Scotland Loch Lomond – Scotland Isle of Wight – England Norfolk Broads – England Bath – England Ballycastle – Northern Ireland Manchester – England
6. Isle of Wight
This island off England’s southeast coast is famous for many things, from its stunning sandy beaches to its vibrant local culture and rich prehistoric history. One of the island’s biggest claims to fames is its plethora of fossils that have led to the discovery of more than 25 different dinosaurs that called Isle of Wight home in their day. For more recent history, there’s Queen Victoria’s royal former residence and Italian Renaissance dream in East Cowes, the Osborne House. And for a break from the tranquil sandy beaches, head to The Needles rock formation off the west end of the island.
Excellent. They've missed off the Hebrides (excepting Skye, and that no longer counts), Sutherland and 90% of the Highlands.
I hope everybody else does too.
They've also missed the east of England: East Anglia. Last summer I did an AMAZING roadtrip with the kidz, from spooky Essex estuaries (Osea island) to quaint, lovely Maldon, through gorgeous Lavenham and poetic Bury St Edmunds, via Constable country, to a few nights in Cambridge (arguably the most beautiful small city in the world, and also, maybe, the most fascinating)
Eastern England is weirdly neglected. Long may it remain so. Marvellous stuff. And great food all the way.
The East tends to be conflated in most people's minds with the Fens: a billiard table flat, dull as ditchwater landscape filled with nothing but thousands and thousands of potato and sugar beet fields (although even the Fens have Ely, which is lovely and well worth a day trip if you've never been.) But yes, if that puts a load of potential visitors off then so much the better. More room for the rest of us to breathe.
I hear amazing things of north Norfolk (never been): genuine sense of wildness, seals on beaches, superb seafood....
The East is the untouched corner of the UK, tourist-wise. Probably as it has such a bad rep from a few hideous resorts, from Clacton to Yarmouth, whereas most of it is lovely, and in places like Suffolk, stunning.
Also, one of the sunniest regions in Britain, alongside south Sussex and the Channel Isles.
Contestants for the sunniest place in the UK are Ventnor, Shanklin, Eastbourne and Torbay, not anywhere in Suffolk.
Interestingly, Andy Wightman MSP, the committee member who has taken the most stick for blocking the Salmond submission, is also a member of the SPCB......
Having recently resigned from the Scottish Greens, he is currently assessing his chances of standing as in independent (or for another party?) in the regional list.
He didn't sit on the SPCB committee that made the decision.
As far as 'another party' goes, recent behaviour would suggest the SNP.
Global travel site Big 7 Travel has released the official 2021 list of the ’25 Best UK Staycations’; the top ten, in order:
Cornwall – England The Lake District – England Yorkshire Dales – England Edinburgh – Scotland Loch Lomond – Scotland Isle of Wight – England Norfolk Broads – England Bath – England Ballycastle – Northern Ireland Manchester – England
6. Isle of Wight
This island off England’s southeast coast is famous for many things, from its stunning sandy beaches to its vibrant local culture and rich prehistoric history. One of the island’s biggest claims to fames is its plethora of fossils that have led to the discovery of more than 25 different dinosaurs that called Isle of Wight home in their day. For more recent history, there’s Queen Victoria’s royal former residence and Italian Renaissance dream in East Cowes, the Osborne House. And for a break from the tranquil sandy beaches, head to The Needles rock formation off the west end of the island.
Excellent. They've missed off the Hebrides (excepting Skye, and that no longer counts), Sutherland and 90% of the Highlands.
I hope everybody else does too.
They've also missed the east of England: East Anglia. Last summer I did an AMAZING roadtrip with the kidz, from spooky Essex estuaries (Osea island) to quaint, lovely Maldon, through gorgeous Lavenham and poetic Bury St Edmunds, via Constable country, to a few nights in Cambridge (arguably the most beautiful small city in the world, and also, maybe, the most fascinating)
Eastern England is weirdly neglected. Long may it remain so. Marvellous stuff. And great food all the way.
Just checked, Ted Cruz is up for re-election in 2024, is it possible for him to run for the GOP nomination and hold his seat?
Given how close it was last time, his sole focus should be on Texas.
Answer to your question is Yes, unless TX law has changed recently.
Note that in 1960, Lyndon Johnson was on the Texas general election ballot twice, as candidate for re-election to US Senate AND as Democratic candidate for Vice President (as JFK's running mate). He was elected VP, so gave up senate seat.
In 1984, Lloyd Benson was also on the general election ballot twice in Lone Star State, running for re-election to US Senate and also for VP (on Dem ticket with Walter Mondale); since he was NOT elected VP, Benson stayed in the Senate.
Note that Texas law thus gives a sitting US Senator the chance of retaining their seat for another full term AND also running for President OR Vice President. LBJ won both elections, so could take his (obvious) choice. Lloyd Benson lost for VP (nationally AND in Texas) but was still able to retain his senate seat.
Ted has upset some locals by legging it to Cancun during the big freeze. But it's Texas, so I guess they'll give him a pass on that, and also on his contribution to the recent failed insurrection.
He may be a tosser, but he's their kind of tosser.
Beto O'Rourke came close to bouncing "Visit Cancun" Ted back in 2018.
Cruz could lose Texas for US Senate in 2024 for same reason that Trumpsky lost re-election in 2020: the asshole factor.
BUT maybe instead he'll be just what the Republican Party is seeking for President in 2024?
Of course, a couple of months ago, some PBers were saying that Mike Pence was a shoo-in for THAT nomination!
Without Trump Pence is ahead with Cruz 4th, 1% behind Haley.
Haley is the best early bet. I think Trump is going to have other problems.
Hayley might be the best bet to win the general, she has near zero chance of winning the primaries in my view
I'd not be so sure. Haley can hit the populist button ok without the Jim Jones cultishness and I suspect the GOP as PtP points out below is going to steer itself back onto somewhat less chaotic ground. Its strategy to do that means getting rid of the Trump family and a few others. I think we have possibly over estimated the Trump factor especially as he gets into trouble elsewhere and if he gets into diffs, his family will go with him. There is still a big slice of that GOP vote that isn't in the Trump cult and will make a choice on the candidate. Those that are in that cult, are just as likely to be disillusioned as organising to stop anyone they don't like.
There are ifs and buts in that analysis there but that's not surprising. |You can see Trump as a direction or an aberration. Right now I'd punt that's its an aberration.
I think Nikki’s great and she’s certainly demonstrated an ability to work the ground in SC plus executive and foreign policy experience.
But I suspect a percentage of GOP primary voters will struggle with voting for an Indian American woman no matter how telegenic she is
Comments
I agree very much with your final sentence.
Or, had she not lost one of the World's safest Labour seats, Laura Pidcock.
https://labourlist.org/2020/10/labour-favourability-drops-but-starmer-seen-as-better-leader-yougov-finds/
What happens below that level matters very little in the grand scheme of things.
If I am right, those ratings will look very different in a couple of years time. Wealth warning though - it's not a market in which I am betting, not yet anyway.
Doctors and public health officials have pleaded with Germans to take up AstraZeneca Covid vaccines, AFP reports. German healthcare facilities have reported several hundred thousand vials sitting unused and rampant no-shows at scheduled appointments.
Officials in Italy, Austria and Bulgaria were also starting to signal some public resistance to the British vaccine, and France’s health minister, Olivier Véran, got the jab live on television to drum up support.
“If you are given the choice between AstraZeneca now or another vaccine in a few months, you should definitely take AstraZeneca now,” implored Carsten Watzl, general secretary of the German Society for Immunology.
I wonder how many deaths Hadelstwatt will be responsible for.
Anyway, Starmer doesn't seem particularly old to me. Dull, possibly, but that's not the same thing at all.
https://twitter.com/DSanderson_85/status/1362493680234422277?s=20
So one of two things happens from here.
One is that the Johnson government is a success. In which case, ghastly as they are, they will deservedly win. I probably still won't vote for them, but hey ho.
The other is that the Johnson government is a failure. In which case, Starmer has got enough "Oh, OK then." to get into No 10. The point is that failed LotOs don't even have that. Think about EdM or IDS. (Actually don't. It might give you nightmares.) If Johnsonism fails, no amount of brio will save him, and being boring might well be a benefit.
I think we can all agree though the last sentence of his tweet is profoundly true. But it will still happen.
Having recently resigned from the Scottish Greens, he is currently assessing his chances of standing as in independent (or for another party?) in the regional list.
If so the Welsh Tories under his leadership should be able to claim the best results for the Tories of the night
I'm not a linguist but to me they seem entirely grammatically correct. I don't understand which other pronouns would be better.
They = the subject referred to (two subjects both referred to separately as they)
Our = collective, everyone
That's the right grammar isn't it?
There are ifs and buts in that analysis there but that's not surprising. |You can see Trump as a direction or an aberration. Right now I'd punt that's its an aberration.
He may be boring and not so far dazzlingly effective, but he’s not obviously deranged, stupid, or nasty.
There won’t be any room for a ‘vote Tory to keep Labour out‘ campaign as there was in 2017 and 2019.
Whether that will make enough of a difference to let him regain ground I don’t know.
Russian roulette is traditionally played with a six chambered revolver
I may have an interest, I sat in the front seat with RT when campaigning in 2011 and had a good chat with him
Eastern England is weirdly neglected. Long may it remain so. Marvellous stuff. And great food all the way.
There's also ample room for a 'vote Tory to keep the SNP out' campaign in England, as per 2015.
How far Labour can progress depends in the first instance, one would assume, on how bad the economic situation is come the next election, and in the second instance on the extent to which voters are convinced that Labour would do any better than the Tories have managed by that point.
In London, only 52% of staff have had a jab, rising to 75% in the South West.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56112622
Drakeford's Covid performance since the fire break has been universally condemned, the vaccine narrative is one of abject failure (despite the stats) and the lockdown in Wales is universally pinned on Drakeford. So in essence, vaccine success belongs to Johnson, lockdown failure belongs to Drakeford. RT doesn't get a mention. He is rubbish!
Only 40% of previous entries have successfully landed
12 km to go
Just that the voters didn't warm to the aloof N Londoner either.
So Labour go pick another. Genius.
Remember this: all critics of British media. If this had happened in the UK, the hacks would have been sacked next day. But in Germany, they just trundle on, in serious positions on a serious paper, unperturbed by the fact they published, then doubled down on, a series of ridiculous and life-endangering falsehoods.
The 2nd Season of Covid, with all its various, gruesome episodes, could be entitled: This Is Why Brexit (for multiple reasons.)
I mention this, because a successful strategy for the GOP in local, legislative, congressional AND statewide races across the US, has been to nominate conservatives who are NOT average White guys. Granted, this has not been a mass phenomena BUT there are enough instances to show it CAN work in contested races & jursidictions.
For example, take US Rep. Jaime Herrera-Beutler (R-WA State) who has morphed from an identikit GOP conservative into a storm center for "Never-Again Trump" Republicans.
JHB was a young congressional assistant when the Republican party appointed her to fill a legislative vacancy created when a GOP state representative, an evangelical Christian fire-fighter (or visa versa) was caught up in a gay sex scandal and forced to resign. Herrera Beutler was selected because she was also an evangelical conservative (and visa versa), BUT she was also a she. At the next election, she won handily.
So JHB was available a few years later, when there was an open-seat race for US House in southwest WA State, in a district then held by a Democrat. She was the early pick of the GOP establishment, on the grounds that she was conservative enough for the base AND had cross-over appeal to Dems & independents as a woman AND as a Latina.
Turned out this was indeed a winning formula.
"The Left thinks so poorly" is making it clear the Left thinks what follows, he doesn't agree.
"reckon they're incapable of securing a form of ID" they're refers to the people the Left think poorly of and he's saying they're not incapable.
"in our elections" clearly refers our to being the elections. Which we're all entitled to vote in and he thinks BAME can rightly get ID to vote in and the Left are wrong to think they're incapable.
What's wrong with any of that? BAME people are not incapable, he's right on that.
Vehicle computer had worked out where on Mars it is.
The East is the untouched corner of the UK, tourist-wise. Probably as it has such a bad rep from a few hideous resorts, from Clacton to Yarmouth, whereas most of it is lovely, and in places like Suffolk, stunning.
Also, one of the sunniest regions in Britain, alongside south Sussex and the Channel Isles.
The Channel Islands aren’t in “Britain” anyway.
"The spacecraft has now entered the Martian atmosphere, at times feeling pressures of about 10 times the gravity of Earth."
There are times I just want to give up...
As far as 'another party' goes, recent behaviour would suggest the SNP.
But I suspect a percentage of GOP primary voters will struggle with voting for an Indian American woman no matter how telegenic she is