So the one body that wasn't stuffed with SNP and Green members (an accidental omission one assumes), votes that there is no reason why documents that may be published legally, may not be published legally. Surprise surprise.
Am I the only one who is completely lost with all this?
Let me try and help.
1. This committee was set up to investigate why the initial complaints procedure (prior to the police case) against Alex Salmond was so mishandled that the Scottish Government ended up having to pay him £500,000 of taxpayers' money. It is lead by an SNP MSP, and has on it an SNP/Green majority of 5 to 4.
2. Alex Salmond's allegation (made very powerfully it must be said) is that the complaints were deliberately orchestrated, pushed, exaggerated, and to some extent invented, with the intention of destroying his reputation and preventing him ever returning to front-line politics. He also alleges that Nicola Sturgeon misled the SP about the nature of her meetings with him.
3. Salmond has submitted evidence of the above to the enquiry, but they have thus far refused to publish it (not parts of it - all of it), so it cannot form part of their report. They have also warned Salmond that if his verbal evidence strays into proscribed areas, he could be subject to criminal prosecution - without actually telling him what areas to stay clear of. The refusal to publish is based on a court order by Lady Dorrian, trial judge in Salmond's sexual assault case, protecting (I think) the complainants' identities.
4. The Spectator brought a legal case to modify this court order and prove that Salmond's evidence could indeed be published. Heard by Lady Dorrian, who stated that the Scottish Government's interpretation of her order to prevent Salmond's evidence being published was 'absurd'. She amended her court order to allow publication.
5. Despite this, and the evidence being published by the Spectator, the enquiry still refused to publish the evidence, but did agree to hand the issue to the SP procedural committee for adjudication.
6. This committee has now declared it is legal to publish. Salmond will now be able to testify without threat of criminal proceedings against him.
They threatened him with prosecution over verbal evidence to a parliamentary committee?
I thought that in itself would be illegal as such occasions are privileged?
Certainly Westminster has got very hot and bothered when threats are made to witnesses in their inquiries.
Yes. It isn't the same with SP committees. I don't know why, but they have considerably less power than WM ones.
Incidentally, did we note this from earlier today?
Two Canada-based researchers on Wednesday urged governments to delay administering the second dose of Pfizer Inc’s COVID-19 vaccine, which they said had an efficacy of 92.6% after the first dose, as it was not significantly beneficial in the short term.
A sibling of mine is getting the dose next week, before my parents. Surprised to find out he's G6 as his treatment was finished I thought but guess the NHS isn't taking any chances.
Glad the G6 people are getting done now so quickly. Makes a big difference.
Incidentally, did we note this from earlier today?
Two Canada-based researchers on Wednesday urged governments to delay administering the second dose of Pfizer Inc’s COVID-19 vaccine, which they said had an efficacy of 92.6% after the first dose, as it was not significantly beneficial in the short term.
Is there perhaps an argument for scrapping the second Pfizer dose altogether ?
As a Pfizer recipient I say no.
I tend to agree. The second dose will enhance the protection and potentially make it longer lasting. We won't be short of vaccine in a few months time.
Incidentally, did we note this from earlier today?
Two Canada-based researchers on Wednesday urged governments to delay administering the second dose of Pfizer Inc’s COVID-19 vaccine, which they said had an efficacy of 92.6% after the first dose, as it was not significantly beneficial in the short term.
Is there perhaps an argument for scrapping the second Pfizer dose altogether ?
Probably not, it's very common for vaccines to need a booster dose to get longer-term protection. In fact, I think it's rather more likely that it will turn out that a second dose is needed for the J&J vaccine.
Incidentally, for anyone interested in the subject, Chris Whitty recently gave a good lecture on vaccines (not specifically for Covid) in the Gresham College series. He mentions the need for booster doses in the talk:
It's probably a bad idea and could potentially stoke up racial tensions, but I had a mad idea for a videa to promote BAME take-up of vaccination.
Start with news stories about rich and powerful people jumping the queue (like that casino owner who flew to the Yukon to pretend to be a native American to get the vaccine earlier, or politicians in some countries making sure they get vaccinated first).
Then have BAME people saying:
- "No, let some rich white guy have mine; I'll just go to the back of the queue." - "No, I've fallen for the propaganda online that's meant to turn me off this, so someone richer can get further up the queue" - "No, we shouldn't forget those poor white millionaires who want theirs sooner." - "It's fine, I'll take my chance with slowly choking to death."
Finishing with a trusted BAME celebrity saying: "If you want to fall for it and give up your place in line, that's up to you. Me, well, when it's my turn - without jumping the queue - anyone gets in my way and they'll have footprints on them."
And words written on it: "Take what's yours. Take your shot."
Before we try reverse psychology on these people, shouldn't your trusted BAME celebrity just be filmed doing some genuine research, and asking hard questions, to the people who made the vaccine? Getting the explanations, and potentially, then getting the shot? Showing the bottle, the injection, tracking the next few days for symptoms, perhaps feeling a bit crap (or not) then bouncing back, then being tested for antibodies?
My concern would be that the slicker and more emotionally persuasive the ad, the more it plays into the notion of a sinister state effort to force people to get the shot.
So the one body that wasn't stuffed with SNP and Green members (an accidental omission one assumes), votes that there is no reason why documents that may be published legally, may not be published legally. Surprise surprise.
Am I the only one who is completely lost with all this?
Let me try and help.
1. This committee was set up to investigate why the initial complaints procedure (prior to the police case) against Alex Salmond was so mishandled that the Scottish Government ended up having to pay him £500,000 of taxpayers' money. It is lead by an SNP MSP, and has on it an SNP/Green majority of 5 to 4.
2. Alex Salmond's allegation (made very powerfully it must be said) is that the complaints were deliberately orchestrated, pushed, exaggerated, and to some extent invented, with the intention of destroying his reputation and preventing him ever returning to front-line politics. He also alleges that Nicola Sturgeon misled the SP about the nature of her meetings with him.
3. Salmond has submitted evidence of the above to the enquiry, but they have thus far refused to publish it (not parts of it - all of it), so it cannot form part of their report. They have also warned Salmond that if his verbal evidence strays into proscribed areas, he could be subject to criminal prosecution - without actually telling him what areas to stay clear of. The refusal to publish is based on a court order by Lady Dorrian, trial judge in Salmond's sexual assault case, protecting (I think) the complainants' identities.
4. The Spectator brought a legal case to modify this court order and prove that Salmond's evidence could indeed be published. Heard by Lady Dorrian, who stated that the Scottish Government's interpretation of her order to prevent Salmond's evidence being published was 'absurd'. She amended her court order to allow publication.
5. Despite this, and the evidence being published by the Spectator, the enquiry still refused to publish the evidence, but did agree to hand the issue to the SP procedural committee for adjudication.
6. This committee has now declared it is legal to publish. Salmond will now be able to testify without threat of criminal proceedings against him.
They threatened him with prosecution over verbal evidence to a parliamentary committee?
I thought that in itself would be illegal as such occasions are privileged?
Certainly Westminster has got very hot and bothered when threats are made to witnesses in their inquiries.
Yes. It isn't the same with SP committees. I don't know why, but they have considerably less power than WM ones.
Well, that’s absurd. They should be privileged given it is a law making body. People should be able to testify without fear or favour.
It's probably a bad idea and could potentially stoke up racial tensions, but I had a mad idea for a videa to promote BAME take-up of vaccination.
Start with news stories about rich and powerful people jumping the queue (like that casino owner who flew to the Yukon to pretend to be a native American to get the vaccine earlier, or politicians in some countries making sure they get vaccinated first).
Then have BAME people saying:
- "No, let some rich white guy have mine; I'll just go to the back of the queue." - "No, I've fallen for the propaganda online that's meant to turn me off this, so someone richer can get further up the queue" - "No, we shouldn't forget those poor white millionaires who want theirs sooner." - "It's fine, I'll take my chance with slowly choking to death."
Finishing with a trusted BAME celebrity saying: "If you want to fall for it and give up your place in line, that's up to you. Me, well, when it's my turn - without jumping the queue - anyone gets in my way and they'll have footprints on them."
And words written on it: "Take what's yours. Take your shot."
Just update the Don't Die Of Ignorance AIDS campaign.
In the years leading up to the 2015 general election, Ed Miliband was always miles behind David Cameron in approval ratings, even when Labour were slightly ahead or (eventually) level pegging in the polls. Yet no-one was arguing that this meant that the Conservatives were going to win the 2015 election by a landslide (and they didn't). However, there was an argument made that Miliband's ratings were so poor that a minimal Labour lead in the polls might in fact be understating the strength of the Conservative position.
The question is - is looking at leadership polling in combination with raw opinion poll lead likely to give you a better idea of an outcome of a general election than just looking at the raw opinion poll lead alone. I think it does, but Fishing's analysis isn't specified to test this.
It would be interesting to see the result if Fishing repeated the analysis with the gross or net "PM leader over Opp leader approval" margin AVERAGED in combination (either 1:1 or in a different ratio) with the "Gvt opinion poll lead". Would it give an improvement on the R squared than that obtained for the "Gvt opinion poll lead" alone?
Yes, the difficulty in doing that kind of multivariable regression is that you have to allow for multicollinearity between the explanatory variables, leading to large variances and standard errors, insignificant t-statistics despite high R2s and other catastrophes. There are ways around those problems and it may not be as much of an issue as it seems, but to be sure you'd need a sample size rather greater than 11.
It's probably a bad idea and could potentially stoke up racial tensions, but I had a mad idea for a videa to promote BAME take-up of vaccination.
Start with news stories about rich and powerful people jumping the queue (like that casino owner who flew to the Yukon to pretend to be a native American to get the vaccine earlier, or politicians in some countries making sure they get vaccinated first).
Then have BAME people saying:
- "No, let some rich white guy have mine; I'll just go to the back of the queue." - "No, I've fallen for the propaganda online that's meant to turn me off this, so someone richer can get further up the queue" - "No, we shouldn't forget those poor white millionaires who want theirs sooner." - "It's fine, I'll take my chance with slowly choking to death."
Finishing with a trusted BAME celebrity saying: "If you want to fall for it and give up your place in line, that's up to you. Me, well, when it's my turn - without jumping the queue - anyone gets in my way and they'll have footprints on them."
And words written on it: "Take what's yours. Take your shot."
Just update the Don't Die Of Ignorance AIDS campaign.
It'll take a heck of an update - I don't think skeleton puppets have the same shock value they once did.
Incidentally, did we note this from earlier today?
Two Canada-based researchers on Wednesday urged governments to delay administering the second dose of Pfizer Inc’s COVID-19 vaccine, which they said had an efficacy of 92.6% after the first dose, as it was not significantly beneficial in the short term.
Is there perhaps an argument for scrapping the second Pfizer dose altogether ?
Doubtful, the AZ second dose takes immunity up from ~70% to ~85% which is a huge difference taken over a 60m population. With Pfizer it could be from ~75% to 94% which is again a huge difference in a large population.
On topic, in the run up to the 2015 GE I did a piece which pointed out that the party that led on both the leadership ratings and best to run the economy metric won the general election.
The only curio was 1997 where the Tories led on the economic question but trailed Blair so much on the leadership to be odd, especially after Black Wednesday.
Not sure if this has yet been linked to but the an who invented the World Wide Web is not happy at all about the idiotic new Australian laws on internet links.
We are now, albeit very weakly, at the way round I expected the data to be once vaccination started to take hold, namely:
Deaths falling faster than Hospitalisations Hospitalisations falling faster than Cases
Given that deaths lag, it has more typically been the other way round on downswings until now.
I'd expect the gaps to widen as we go along and the fall in deaths to further outstrip other measures as we continue.
I have sympathy, this time, with Contrarian's view that Cases could soon become a poor arbiter of what we should do and how hard we should lockdown. Not yet, but soon.
Now scientists spot ANOTHER Covid variant: Finland detects strain that 'shares mutations with South African version' that makes vaccines slightly less effective
We are now, albeit very weakly, at the way round I expected the data to be once vaccination started to take hold, namely:
Deaths falling faster than Hospitalisations Hospitalisations falling faster than Cases
Given that deaths lag, it has more typically been the other way round on downswings until now.
I'd expect the gaps to widen as we go along and the fall in deaths to further outstrip other measures as we continue.
I have sympathy, this time, with Contrarian's view that Cases could soon become a poor arbiter of what we should do and how hard we should lockdown. Not yet, but soon.
I do wonder what the impact on the numbers re-opening the schools will have.
300 people tested positive at HMP Kilmarnock last week. That outbreak alone would have pushed the weekly case stats for the whole of Scotland up by roughly 6%.
It's probably a bad idea and could potentially stoke up racial tensions, but I had a mad idea for a videa to promote BAME take-up of vaccination.
Start with news stories about rich and powerful people jumping the queue (like that casino owner who flew to the Yukon to pretend to be a native American to get the vaccine earlier, or politicians in some countries making sure they get vaccinated first).
Then have BAME people saying:
- "No, let some rich white guy have mine; I'll just go to the back of the queue." - "No, I've fallen for the propaganda online that's meant to turn me off this, so someone richer can get further up the queue" - "No, we shouldn't forget those poor white millionaires who want theirs sooner." - "It's fine, I'll take my chance with slowly choking to death."
Finishing with a trusted BAME celebrity saying: "If you want to fall for it and give up your place in line, that's up to you. Me, well, when it's my turn - without jumping the queue - anyone gets in my way and they'll have footprints on them."
And words written on it: "Take what's yours. Take your shot."
Just update the Don't Die Of Ignorance AIDS campaign.
It'll take a heck of an update - I don't think skeleton puppets have the same shock value they once did.
I think I was eight and it was the tombstones I remember the most.
It's probably a bad idea and could potentially stoke up racial tensions, but I had a mad idea for a videa to promote BAME take-up of vaccination.
Start with news stories about rich and powerful people jumping the queue (like that casino owner who flew to the Yukon to pretend to be a native American to get the vaccine earlier, or politicians in some countries making sure they get vaccinated first).
Then have BAME people saying:
- "No, let some rich white guy have mine; I'll just go to the back of the queue." - "No, I've fallen for the propaganda online that's meant to turn me off this, so someone richer can get further up the queue" - "No, we shouldn't forget those poor white millionaires who want theirs sooner." - "It's fine, I'll take my chance with slowly choking to death."
Finishing with a trusted BAME celebrity saying: "If you want to fall for it and give up your place in line, that's up to you. Me, well, when it's my turn - without jumping the queue - anyone gets in my way and they'll have footprints on them."
And words written on it: "Take what's yours. Take your shot."
Just update the Don't Die Of Ignorance AIDS campaign.
Another rare occasion when the Government got something exactly right in my opinion. Those adverts scared the bejesus out of me as single 20 year old. Probably the best advertising campaign I have ever seen.
In the years leading up to the 2015 general election, Ed Miliband was always miles behind David Cameron in approval ratings, even when Labour were slightly ahead or (eventually) level pegging in the polls. Yet no-one was arguing that this meant that the Conservatives were going to win the 2015 election by a landslide (and they didn't). However, there was an argument made that Miliband's ratings were so poor that a minimal Labour lead in the polls might in fact be understating the strength of the Conservative position.
The question is - is looking at leadership polling in combination with raw opinion poll lead likely to give you a better idea of an outcome of a general election than just looking at the raw opinion poll lead alone. I think it does, but Fishing's analysis isn't specified to test this.
It would be interesting to see the result if Fishing repeated the analysis with the gross or net "PM leader over Opp leader approval" margin AVERAGED in combination (either 1:1 or in a different ratio) with the "Gvt opinion poll lead". Would it give an improvement on the R squared than that obtained for the "Gvt opinion poll lead" alone?
Yes, the difficulty in doing that kind of multivariable regression is that you have to allow for multicollinearity between the explanatory variables, leading to large variances and standard errors, insignificant t-statistics despite high R2s and other catastrophes. There are ways around those problems and it may not be as much of an issue as it seems, but to be sure you'd need a sample size rather greater than 11.
However, I might have a go at it at some point.
It's simply not possible. It'd be just directed data-mining.
We are now, albeit very weakly, at the way round I expected the data to be once vaccination started to take hold, namely:
Deaths falling faster than Hospitalisations Hospitalisations falling faster than Cases
Given that deaths lag, it has more typically been the other way round on downswings until now.
I'd expect the gaps to widen as we go along and the fall in deaths to further outstrip other measures as we continue.
I have sympathy, this time, with Contrarian's view that Cases could soon become a poor arbiter of what we should do and how hard we should lockdown. Not yet, but soon.
I do wonder what the impact on the numbers re-opening the schools will have.
cases up, rest relatively unaffected - at least for the first few weeks.
300 people tested positive at HMP Kilmarnock last week. That outbreak alone would have pushed the weekly case stats for the whole of Scotland up by roughly 6%.
Unpopular thing I said back in December.
We should prioritise prisoners and prison staff for the vaccine to avoid things like this.
It's probably a bad idea and could potentially stoke up racial tensions, but I had a mad idea for a videa to promote BAME take-up of vaccination.
Start with news stories about rich and powerful people jumping the queue (like that casino owner who flew to the Yukon to pretend to be a native American to get the vaccine earlier, or politicians in some countries making sure they get vaccinated first).
Then have BAME people saying:
- "No, let some rich white guy have mine; I'll just go to the back of the queue." - "No, I've fallen for the propaganda online that's meant to turn me off this, so someone richer can get further up the queue" - "No, we shouldn't forget those poor white millionaires who want theirs sooner." - "It's fine, I'll take my chance with slowly choking to death."
Finishing with a trusted BAME celebrity saying: "If you want to fall for it and give up your place in line, that's up to you. Me, well, when it's my turn - without jumping the queue - anyone gets in my way and they'll have footprints on them."
And words written on it: "Take what's yours. Take your shot."
Just update the Don't Die Of Ignorance AIDS campaign.
Another rare occasion when the Government got something exactly right in my opinion. Those adverts scared the bejesus out of me as single 18 year old. Probably the best advertising campaign I have ever seen.
Norman Fowler’s famous pledge in the commons to send 23 million leaflets to every household in Britain was slightly excessive though.
In the years leading up to the 2015 general election, Ed Miliband was always miles behind David Cameron in approval ratings, even when Labour were slightly ahead or (eventually) level pegging in the polls. Yet no-one was arguing that this meant that the Conservatives were going to win the 2015 election by a landslide (and they didn't). However, there was an argument made that Miliband's ratings were so poor that a minimal Labour lead in the polls might in fact be understating the strength of the Conservative position.
The question is - is looking at leadership polling in combination with raw opinion poll lead likely to give you a better idea of an outcome of a general election than just looking at the raw opinion poll lead alone. I think it does, but Fishing's analysis isn't specified to test this.
It would be interesting to see the result if Fishing repeated the analysis with the gross or net "PM leader over Opp leader approval" margin AVERAGED in combination (either 1:1 or in a different ratio) with the "Gvt opinion poll lead". Would it give an improvement on the R squared than that obtained for the "Gvt opinion poll lead" alone?
Yes, the difficulty in doing that kind of multivariable regression is that you have to allow for multicollinearity between the explanatory variables, leading to large variances and standard errors, insignificant t-statistics despite high R2s and other catastrophes. There are ways around those problems and it may not be as much of an issue as it seems, but to be sure you'd need a sample size rather greater than 11.
However, I might have a go at it at some point.
It's simply not possible. It'd be just directed data-mining.
I don't agree that it's impossible, but I agree you'd have to be very careful about claiming you can draw robust conclusions from it.
CNN - Sen. Ted Cruz and his family flew to Cancun, Mexico, as a winter disaster in his home state left millions without power or water, according to photos posted on social media and confirmed to CNN by a person familiar with the travel itinerary.
Multiple Twitter users posted photos showing Cruz and his family at Houston's airport and aboard a flight bound for Cancun, Mexico. The same person familiar with the trip confirmed to CNN that Cruz is booked on a flight from Cancun back to Houston on Thursday afternoon.
The trip was immediately criticized, including by Texas state Rep. Gene Wu, a Democrat representing southwest Houston, who tweeted a photo of Cruz aboard a flight, saying Cruz was flying south "while the state was freezing to death and having to boil water."
CNN has repeatedly reached out to Cruz's office and people in his orbit late Wednesday night and Thursday morning but they did not respond to multiple requests for comment.
It's probably a bad idea and could potentially stoke up racial tensions, but I had a mad idea for a videa to promote BAME take-up of vaccination.
Start with news stories about rich and powerful people jumping the queue (like that casino owner who flew to the Yukon to pretend to be a native American to get the vaccine earlier, or politicians in some countries making sure they get vaccinated first).
Then have BAME people saying:
- "No, let some rich white guy have mine; I'll just go to the back of the queue." - "No, I've fallen for the propaganda online that's meant to turn me off this, so someone richer can get further up the queue" - "No, we shouldn't forget those poor white millionaires who want theirs sooner." - "It's fine, I'll take my chance with slowly choking to death."
Finishing with a trusted BAME celebrity saying: "If you want to fall for it and give up your place in line, that's up to you. Me, well, when it's my turn - without jumping the queue - anyone gets in my way and they'll have footprints on them."
And words written on it: "Take what's yours. Take your shot."
Just update the Don't Die Of Ignorance AIDS campaign.
Another rare occasion when the Government got something exactly right in my opinion. Those adverts scared the bejesus out of me as single 20 year old. Probably the best advertising campaign I have ever seen.
Norman Fowler (and a few others) deserve sainthoods for their efforts in that campaign.
Also helped we had a PM who understood the dangers of exponential growth.
So the one body that wasn't stuffed with SNP and Green members (an accidental omission one assumes), votes that there is no reason why documents that may be published legally, may not be published legally. Surprise surprise.
Am I the only one who is completely lost with all this?
Let me try and help.
1. This committee was set up to investigate why the initial complaints procedure (prior to the police case) against Alex Salmond was so mishandled that the Scottish Government ended up having to pay him £500,000 of taxpayers' money. It is lead by an SNP MSP, and has on it an SNP/Green majority of 5 to 4.
2. Alex Salmond's allegation (made very powerfully it must be said) is that the complaints were deliberately orchestrated, pushed, exaggerated, and to some extent invented, with the intention of destroying his reputation and preventing him ever returning to front-line politics. He also alleges that Nicola Sturgeon misled the SP about the nature of her meetings with him.
3. Salmond has submitted evidence of the above to the enquiry, but they have thus far refused to publish it (not parts of it - all of it), so it cannot form part of their report. They have also warned Salmond that if his verbal evidence strays into proscribed areas, he could be subject to criminal prosecution - without actually telling him what areas to stay clear of. The refusal to publish is based on a court order by Lady Dorrian, trial judge in Salmond's sexual assault case, protecting (I think) the complainants' identities.
4. The Spectator brought a legal case to modify this court order and prove that Salmond's evidence could indeed be published. Heard by Lady Dorrian, who stated that the Scottish Government's interpretation of her order to prevent Salmond's evidence being published was 'absurd'. She amended her court order to allow publication.
5. Despite this, and the evidence being published by the Spectator, the enquiry still refused to publish the evidence, but did agree to hand the issue to the SP procedural committee for adjudication.
6. This committee has now declared it is legal to publish. Salmond will now be able to testify without threat of criminal proceedings against him.
They threatened him with prosecution over verbal evidence to a parliamentary committee?
I thought that in itself would be illegal as such occasions are privileged?
Certainly Westminster has got very hot and bothered when threats are made to witnesses in their inquiries.
Yes. It isn't the same with SP committees. I don't know why, but they have considerably less power than WM ones.
It's an extra bit of power Boris could offer to Scotland. Just to be helpful, like....
Guardian breaking: Doctors and public health officials have pleaded with Germans to take up AstraZeneca Covid vaccines against the coronavirus, AFP reports. German healthcare facilities have reported several hundred thousand vials sitting unused and rampant no-shows at scheduled appointments.
Officials in Italy, Austria and Bulgaria were also starting to signal some public resistance to the British vaccine, and France’s health minister, Olivier Véran, got the jab live on television to drum up support.
“If you are given the choice between AstraZeneca now or another vaccine in a few months, you should definitely take AstraZeneca now,” implored Carsten Watzl, general secretary of the German Society for Immunology.
The health minister, Jens Spahn, echoed the message, calling all three vaccines approved in the EU – AstraZeneca, BioNTech/Pfizer and Moderna – “safe and effective” despite varying levels of efficacy.
We are now, albeit very weakly, at the way round I expected the data to be once vaccination started to take hold, namely:
Deaths falling faster than Hospitalisations Hospitalisations falling faster than Cases
Given that deaths lag, it has more typically been the other way round on downswings until now.
I'd expect the gaps to widen as we go along and the fall in deaths to further outstrip other measures as we continue.
I have sympathy, this time, with Contrarian's view that Cases could soon become a poor arbiter of what we should do and how hard we should lockdown. Not yet, but soon.
I do wonder what the impact on the numbers re-opening the schools will have.
cases up, rest relatively unaffected - at least for the first few weeks.
I fear our media will focus on the worst and demand lockdown lasts a little bit longer.
It's probably a bad idea and could potentially stoke up racial tensions, but I had a mad idea for a videa to promote BAME take-up of vaccination.
Start with news stories about rich and powerful people jumping the queue (like that casino owner who flew to the Yukon to pretend to be a native American to get the vaccine earlier, or politicians in some countries making sure they get vaccinated first).
Then have BAME people saying:
- "No, let some rich white guy have mine; I'll just go to the back of the queue." - "No, I've fallen for the propaganda online that's meant to turn me off this, so someone richer can get further up the queue" - "No, we shouldn't forget those poor white millionaires who want theirs sooner." - "It's fine, I'll take my chance with slowly choking to death."
Finishing with a trusted BAME celebrity saying: "If you want to fall for it and give up your place in line, that's up to you. Me, well, when it's my turn - without jumping the queue - anyone gets in my way and they'll have footprints on them."
And words written on it: "Take what's yours. Take your shot."
Just update the Don't Die Of Ignorance AIDS campaign.
Another rare occasion when the Government got something exactly right in my opinion. Those adverts scared the bejesus out of me as single 18 year old. Probably the best advertising campaign I have ever seen.
Norman Fowler’s famous pledge in the commons to send 23 million leaflets to every household in Britain was slightly excessive though.
On topic, in the run up to the 2015 GE I did a piece which pointed out that the party that led on both the leadership ratings and best to run the economy metric won the general election.
The only curio was 1997 where the Tories led on the economic question but trailed Blair so much on the leadership to be odd, especially after Black Wednesday.
I might update that piece.
Gross or net leadership ratings? Or preferred PM?
Currently both leaders can claim to be in the lead depending upon how you define lead.
Hmm. Not sure the BBC news are doing Starmer any favours
I am sat in the other room from where my wife is watching TV but can hear the 6 O'clock news. I have not seen any details of today's speech but the presenter just started the item with:
"Sir Keir Starmer has set out his vision for Britain promising a moral crusade"
I am sorry but when people start talking about moral crusades as if their morals are somehow representative of the whole country I start to run in the other direction.
It's probably a bad idea and could potentially stoke up racial tensions, but I had a mad idea for a videa to promote BAME take-up of vaccination.
Start with news stories about rich and powerful people jumping the queue (like that casino owner who flew to the Yukon to pretend to be a native American to get the vaccine earlier, or politicians in some countries making sure they get vaccinated first).
Then have BAME people saying:
- "No, let some rich white guy have mine; I'll just go to the back of the queue." - "No, I've fallen for the propaganda online that's meant to turn me off this, so someone richer can get further up the queue" - "No, we shouldn't forget those poor white millionaires who want theirs sooner." - "It's fine, I'll take my chance with slowly choking to death."
Finishing with a trusted BAME celebrity saying: "If you want to fall for it and give up your place in line, that's up to you. Me, well, when it's my turn - without jumping the queue - anyone gets in my way and they'll have footprints on them."
And words written on it: "Take what's yours. Take your shot."
Just update the Don't Die Of Ignorance AIDS campaign.
Another rare occasion when the Government got something exactly right in my opinion. Those adverts scared the bejesus out of me as single 18 year old. Probably the best advertising campaign I have ever seen.
Norman Fowler’s famous pledge in the commons to send 23 million leaflets to every household in Britain was slightly excessive though.
23 million leaflets ...
But you lived in a Lib Dem marginal in Ceredigion, you must be used to this kind of deluge, no?
Guardian breaking: Doctors and public health officials have pleaded with Germans to take up AstraZeneca Covid vaccines against the coronavirus, AFP reports. German healthcare facilities have reported several hundred thousand vials sitting unused and rampant no-shows at scheduled appointments.
Officials in Italy, Austria and Bulgaria were also starting to signal some public resistance to the British vaccine, and France’s health minister, Olivier Véran, got the jab live on television to drum up support.
“If you are given the choice between AstraZeneca now or another vaccine in a few months, you should definitely take AstraZeneca now,” implored Carsten Watzl, general secretary of the German Society for Immunology.
The health minister, Jens Spahn, echoed the message, calling all three vaccines approved in the EU – AstraZeneca, BioNTech/Pfizer and Moderna – “safe and effective” despite varying levels of efficacy.
How did that possibly happen.....its as if high profile individuals and media outlets have been reporting that its a shit vaccine based on pseudo-science.
Guardian breaking: Doctors and public health officials have pleaded with Germans to take up AstraZeneca Covid vaccines against the coronavirus, AFP reports. German healthcare facilities have reported several hundred thousand vials sitting unused and rampant no-shows at scheduled appointments.
Officials in Italy, Austria and Bulgaria were also starting to signal some public resistance to the British vaccine, and France’s health minister, Olivier Véran, got the jab live on television to drum up support.
“If you are given the choice between AstraZeneca now or another vaccine in a few months, you should definitely take AstraZeneca now,” implored Carsten Watzl, general secretary of the German Society for Immunology.
The health minister, Jens Spahn, echoed the message, calling all three vaccines approved in the EU – AstraZeneca, BioNTech/Pfizer and Moderna – “safe and effective” despite varying levels of efficacy.
They really have set themselves up for a catastrophe, haven't they? To make it even worse, their schedules depend on getting going with the J&J vaccine as soon as they can, but people are likely to be reluctant to take that one as well.
It's probably a bad idea and could potentially stoke up racial tensions, but I had a mad idea for a videa to promote BAME take-up of vaccination.
Start with news stories about rich and powerful people jumping the queue (like that casino owner who flew to the Yukon to pretend to be a native American to get the vaccine earlier, or politicians in some countries making sure they get vaccinated first).
Then have BAME people saying:
- "No, let some rich white guy have mine; I'll just go to the back of the queue." - "No, I've fallen for the propaganda online that's meant to turn me off this, so someone richer can get further up the queue" - "No, we shouldn't forget those poor white millionaires who want theirs sooner." - "It's fine, I'll take my chance with slowly choking to death."
Finishing with a trusted BAME celebrity saying: "If you want to fall for it and give up your place in line, that's up to you. Me, well, when it's my turn - without jumping the queue - anyone gets in my way and they'll have footprints on them."
And words written on it: "Take what's yours. Take your shot."
Just update the Don't Die Of Ignorance AIDS campaign.
Another rare occasion when the Government got something exactly right in my opinion. Those adverts scared the bejesus out of me as single 18 year old. Probably the best advertising campaign I have ever seen.
Norman Fowler’s famous pledge in the commons to send 23 million leaflets to every household in Britain was slightly excessive though.
23 million leaflets ...
But you lived in a Lib Dem marginal in Ceredigion, you must be used to this kind of deluge, no?
I was only in Ceredigion for one general election. Oddly, I had more leaflets from the Tories than the LibDems.
Plenty of time. But he does need something of his to really catch people's attention and fix an image in peoples' minds. Goodness knows what though.
Starmer is awful, dull and clueless, as his actions in 2019 demonstrated.
He's also a nasty arsehole careerist.
While MPs like Luciana Berger were getting bullied out of the Labour Party he chose to serve in the Shadow Cabinet to further his own career and put forward Corbyn as PM.
Only those who refused to serve under Corbyn should have been considered as possible Labour Party leaders. A Labour led by Yvette Cooper would be a credible threat right now.
Farage voter says that Keir Starmer is "nasty".
Do we have a category prize for this?
I am not and never have been a Farage voter.
Apart from voting for a party led by him.
I voted to leave the EU, have the British contingent of the European Parliament abolished and Farage tossed out as an elected politician as a result, yes.
I'd do it again. No regrets from voting to evict Farage.
I've never eaten chocolate but I once purchased a 99 and with great relish consumed the flake.
What point are you trying to make?
I voted to evict Farage from the European Parliament. If he ever found his way into Westminster and I had a way to evict him from that I'd be quite tempted to take it. Wouldn't you?
The point I'm making is that when I see a person who (i) is prepared to vote - even once - for a Farage party and yet (ii) claims to have been so mortified by the xenophobia showed by Theresa May's "Citizens of Nowhere" speech and her "Go Home" vans that they resign from the Tory Party, I smell a rat. Not accusing you of anything terrible. You're an excellent poster in many ways. But I am deeply skeptical of some of what you proclaim as your "principles". It doesn't entirely scan to me. I think you're driven mainly by EngNat.
I have never voted for Farage to be elected to a Parliament.
I have once voted for Farage to be ejected from a Parliament.
Like a reality TV show when it flips between "vote to evict" and "vote to save".
Do you see the difference?
I get the circumstances, yes, and my conclusion is unchanged. I read you as an unusual mix of Market Fundamentalist and English Nationalist who sometimes pops a button or two when attempting to meld all that together in a way that is consistent and avoids its less savoury aspects.
You should be flattered I'm interested in you. Other posters will be jealous.
I am a free marketeer and liberal. I am very libertarian. Disappointed in you that you completely omitted social liberalism in any sense.
But yes I am an English nationalist, I don't hide that nor is there a contradiction.
Everyone is a nationalist to some degree. The only question is where you put the nation. There is absolutely nothing wrong with nationalism whatsoever and most "sins" supposedly to do with nationalism are actually about imperialism, I am not an imperialist.
Etc. All fine. And don't strain to be totally free of contradiction. Absurdity that way lies.
But you pressed me on the specific and so I elaborated. It could be that Mrs May's xenophobia utterly repelled you. But I don't think that was really it - although I am happy to accept you were less than impressed. I think your dominant political identity had by then become Hard Leave and seeing her engaged in a great betrayal of this you were minded to seize on every flaw of hers, if necessary with hindsight, and magnify it on a x10 setting.
That's my offering to you to complement your self-imaging of what transpired. I make it with no malice. If you don't want these sorts of challenging and deeply personal insights you shouldn't have invited me into your life.
On topic, in the run up to the 2015 GE I did a piece which pointed out that the party that led on both the leadership ratings and best to run the economy metric won the general election.
The only curio was 1997 where the Tories led on the economic question but trailed Blair so much on the leadership to be odd, especially after Black Wednesday.
I might update that piece.
Gross or net leadership ratings? Or preferred PM?
Currently both leaders can claim to be in the lead depending upon how you define lead.
We are now, albeit very weakly, at the way round I expected the data to be once vaccination started to take hold, namely:
Deaths falling faster than Hospitalisations Hospitalisations falling faster than Cases
Given that deaths lag, it has more typically been the other way round on downswings until now.
I'd expect the gaps to widen as we go along and the fall in deaths to further outstrip other measures as we continue.
I have sympathy, this time, with Contrarian's view that Cases could soon become a poor arbiter of what we should do and how hard we should lockdown. Not yet, but soon.
I do wonder what the impact on the numbers re-opening the schools will have.
cases up, rest relatively unaffected - at least for the first few weeks.
I fear our media will focus on the worst and demand lockdown lasts a little bit longer.
They can't make their mind up day to day which side they are on - at least the Mail can't. However, I do think that this lockdown is fraying a bit round the edges, and if they want to follow thir readers then your fears may not come to pass.
In the years leading up to the 2015 general election, Ed Miliband was always miles behind David Cameron in approval ratings, even when Labour were slightly ahead or (eventually) level pegging in the polls. Yet no-one was arguing that this meant that the Conservatives were going to win the 2015 election by a landslide (and they didn't). However, there was an argument made that Miliband's ratings were so poor that a minimal Labour lead in the polls might in fact be understating the strength of the Conservative position.
The question is - is looking at leadership polling in combination with raw opinion poll lead likely to give you a better idea of an outcome of a general election than just looking at the raw opinion poll lead alone. I think it does, but Fishing's analysis isn't specified to test this.
It would be interesting to see the result if Fishing repeated the analysis with the gross or net "PM leader over Opp leader approval" margin AVERAGED in combination (either 1:1 or in a different ratio) with the "Gvt opinion poll lead". Would it give an improvement on the R squared than that obtained for the "Gvt opinion poll lead" alone?
Yes, the difficulty in doing that kind of multivariable regression is that you have to allow for multicollinearity between the explanatory variables, leading to large variances and standard errors, insignificant t-statistics despite high R2s and other catastrophes. There are ways around those problems and it may not be as much of an issue as it seems, but to be sure you'd need a sample size rather greater than 11.
However, I might have a go at it at some point.
It's simply not possible. It'd be just directed data-mining.
I don't agree that it's impossible, but I agree you'd have to be very careful about claiming you can draw robust conclusions from it.
Guardian breaking: Doctors and public health officials have pleaded with Germans to take up AstraZeneca Covid vaccines against the coronavirus, AFP reports. German healthcare facilities have reported several hundred thousand vials sitting unused and rampant no-shows at scheduled appointments.
Officials in Italy, Austria and Bulgaria were also starting to signal some public resistance to the British vaccine, and France’s health minister, Olivier Véran, got the jab live on television to drum up support.
“If you are given the choice between AstraZeneca now or another vaccine in a few months, you should definitely take AstraZeneca now,” implored Carsten Watzl, general secretary of the German Society for Immunology.
The health minister, Jens Spahn, echoed the message, calling all three vaccines approved in the EU – AstraZeneca, BioNTech/Pfizer and Moderna – “safe and effective” despite varying levels of efficacy.
They really have set themselves up for a catastrophe, haven't they? To make it even worse, their schedules depend on getting going with the J&J vaccine as soon as they can, but people are likely to be reluctant to take that one as well.
They've probably stoked antivax sentiment for years if not decades to come.
We are now, albeit very weakly, at the way round I expected the data to be once vaccination started to take hold, namely:
Deaths falling faster than Hospitalisations Hospitalisations falling faster than Cases
Given that deaths lag, it has more typically been the other way round on downswings until now.
I'd expect the gaps to widen as we go along and the fall in deaths to further outstrip other measures as we continue.
I have sympathy, this time, with Contrarian's view that Cases could soon become a poor arbiter of what we should do and how hard we should lockdown. Not yet, but soon.
I do wonder what the impact on the numbers re-opening the schools will have.
cases up, rest relatively unaffected - at least for the first few weeks.
I fear our media will focus on the worst and demand lockdown lasts a little bit longer.
They can't make their mind up day to day which side they are on - at least the Mail can't. However, I do think that this lockdown is fraying a bit round the edges, and if they want to follow thir readers then your fears may not come to pass.
I think they want schools back ASAP and don’t care how long the rest lasts as long as they and their favourite boozer still get government money and they are able to go to Spain in the summer.
A bit of an oversimplification perhaps but it accounts for most of the inconsistencies.
Also remember everyone who says most loudly that lockdown must continue ad nauseam thinks lockdown applies *to other people* not to themselves.
As the last coal is shipped down the Tyne (which by WWI was exporting half the coal exported in the world) here’s Dorothy Parker on “taking coals to Newcastle”
To Newcastle I met a man the other day-- A kindly man, and serious-- Who viewed me in a thoughtful way, And spoke me so, and spoke me thus:
"Oh, dallying's a sad mistake; 'Tis craven to survey the morrow! Go give your heart, and if it break-- A wise companion is Sorrow.
"Oh, live, my child, nor keep your soul To crowd your coffin when you're dead...." I asked his work; he dealt in coal, And shipped it up the Tyne, he said.
Global travel site Big 7 Travel has released the official 2021 list of the ’25 Best UK Staycations’; the top ten, in order:
Cornwall – England The Lake District – England Yorkshire Dales – England Edinburgh – Scotland Loch Lomond – Scotland Isle of Wight – England Norfolk Broads – England Bath – England Ballycastle – Northern Ireland Manchester – England
6. Isle of Wight
This island off England’s southeast coast is famous for many things, from its stunning sandy beaches to its vibrant local culture and rich prehistoric history. One of the island’s biggest claims to fames is its plethora of fossils that have led to the discovery of more than 25 different dinosaurs that called Isle of Wight home in their day. For more recent history, there’s Queen Victoria’s royal former residence and Italian Renaissance dream in East Cowes, the Osborne House. And for a break from the tranquil sandy beaches, head to The Needles rock formation off the west end of the island.
Guardian breaking: Doctors and public health officials have pleaded with Germans to take up AstraZeneca Covid vaccines against the coronavirus, AFP reports. German healthcare facilities have reported several hundred thousand vials sitting unused and rampant no-shows at scheduled appointments.
Officials in Italy, Austria and Bulgaria were also starting to signal some public resistance to the British vaccine, and France’s health minister, Olivier Véran, got the jab live on television to drum up support.
“If you are given the choice between AstraZeneca now or another vaccine in a few months, you should definitely take AstraZeneca now,” implored Carsten Watzl, general secretary of the German Society for Immunology.
The health minister, Jens Spahn, echoed the message, calling all three vaccines approved in the EU – AstraZeneca, BioNTech/Pfizer and Moderna – “safe and effective” despite varying levels of efficacy.
How did that possibly happen.....its as if high profile individuals and media outlets have been reporting that its a shit vaccine based on pseudo-science.
It is almost like the EU hired Andrew Wakefield to be in the charge of the vaccine rollout.
On topic, in the run up to the 2015 GE I did a piece which pointed out that the party that led on both the leadership ratings and best to run the economy metric won the general election.
The only curio was 1997 where the Tories led on the economic question but trailed Blair so much on the leadership to be odd, especially after Black Wednesday.
I might update that piece.
Gross or net leadership ratings? Or preferred PM?
Currently both leaders can claim to be in the lead depending upon how you define lead.
Guardian breaking: Doctors and public health officials have pleaded with Germans to take up AstraZeneca Covid vaccines against the coronavirus, AFP reports. German healthcare facilities have reported several hundred thousand vials sitting unused and rampant no-shows at scheduled appointments.
Officials in Italy, Austria and Bulgaria were also starting to signal some public resistance to the British vaccine, and France’s health minister, Olivier Véran, got the jab live on television to drum up support.
“If you are given the choice between AstraZeneca now or another vaccine in a few months, you should definitely take AstraZeneca now,” implored Carsten Watzl, general secretary of the German Society for Immunology.
The health minister, Jens Spahn, echoed the message, calling all three vaccines approved in the EU – AstraZeneca, BioNTech/Pfizer and Moderna – “safe and effective” despite varying levels of efficacy.
How did that possibly happen.....its as if high profile individuals and media outlets have been reporting that its a shit vaccine based on pseudo-science.
It is almost like the EU hired Andrew Wakefield to be in the charge of the vaccine rollout.
Anyone know what Chris Grayling is doing these days?
Guardian breaking: Doctors and public health officials have pleaded with Germans to take up AstraZeneca Covid vaccines against the coronavirus, AFP reports. German healthcare facilities have reported several hundred thousand vials sitting unused and rampant no-shows at scheduled appointments.
Officials in Italy, Austria and Bulgaria were also starting to signal some public resistance to the British vaccine, and France’s health minister, Olivier Véran, got the jab live on television to drum up support.
“If you are given the choice between AstraZeneca now or another vaccine in a few months, you should definitely take AstraZeneca now,” implored Carsten Watzl, general secretary of the German Society for Immunology.
The health minister, Jens Spahn, echoed the message, calling all three vaccines approved in the EU – AstraZeneca, BioNTech/Pfizer and Moderna – “safe and effective” despite varying levels of efficacy.
They really have set themselves up for a catastrophe, haven't they? To make it even worse, their schedules depend on getting going with the J&J vaccine as soon as they can, but people are likely to be reluctant to take that one as well.
They've probably stoked antivax sentiment for years if not decades to come.
We are now, albeit very weakly, at the way round I expected the data to be once vaccination started to take hold, namely:
Deaths falling faster than Hospitalisations Hospitalisations falling faster than Cases
Given that deaths lag, it has more typically been the other way round on downswings until now.
I'd expect the gaps to widen as we go along and the fall in deaths to further outstrip other measures as we continue.
I have sympathy, this time, with Contrarian's view that Cases could soon become a poor arbiter of what we should do and how hard we should lockdown. Not yet, but soon.
I do wonder what the impact on the numbers re-opening the schools will have.
cases up, rest relatively unaffected - at least for the first few weeks.
I fear our media will focus on the worst and demand lockdown lasts a little bit longer.
They can't make their mind up day to day which side they are on - at least the Mail can't. However, I do think that this lockdown is fraying a bit round the edges, and if they want to follow thir readers then your fears may not come to pass.
During the first wave their record was 90 minutes.
Article 1 - Why hasn't Boris Johnson eased restrictions as cases drop?
Article 2 - It's murder Tuesday as deaths increase 70% on yesterday. Here's where Boris Johnson should tighten restrictions further.
Global travel site Big 7 Travel has released the official 2021 list of the ’25 Best UK Staycations’; the top ten, in order:
Cornwall – England The Lake District – England Yorkshire Dales – England Edinburgh – Scotland Loch Lomond – Scotland Isle of Wight – England Norfolk Broads – England Bath – England Ballycastle – Northern Ireland Manchester – England
6. Isle of Wight
This island off England’s southeast coast is famous for many things, from its stunning sandy beaches to its vibrant local culture and rich prehistoric history. One of the island’s biggest claims to fames is its plethora of fossils that have led to the discovery of more than 25 different dinosaurs that called Isle of Wight home in their day. For more recent history, there’s Queen Victoria’s royal former residence and Italian Renaissance dream in East Cowes, the Osborne House. And for a break from the tranquil sandy beaches, head to The Needles rock formation off the west end of the island.
Guardian breaking: Doctors and public health officials have pleaded with Germans to take up AstraZeneca Covid vaccines against the coronavirus, AFP reports. German healthcare facilities have reported several hundred thousand vials sitting unused and rampant no-shows at scheduled appointments.
Officials in Italy, Austria and Bulgaria were also starting to signal some public resistance to the British vaccine, and France’s health minister, Olivier Véran, got the jab live on television to drum up support.
“If you are given the choice between AstraZeneca now or another vaccine in a few months, you should definitely take AstraZeneca now,” implored Carsten Watzl, general secretary of the German Society for Immunology.
The health minister, Jens Spahn, echoed the message, calling all three vaccines approved in the EU – AstraZeneca, BioNTech/Pfizer and Moderna – “safe and effective” despite varying levels of efficacy.
How did that possibly happen.....its as if high profile individuals and media outlets have been reporting that its a shit vaccine based on pseudo-science.
It is almost like the EU hired Andrew Wakefield to be in the charge of the vaccine rollout.
Anyone know what Chris Grayling is doing these days?
It's probably a bad idea and could potentially stoke up racial tensions, but I had a mad idea for a videa to promote BAME take-up of vaccination.
Start with news stories about rich and powerful people jumping the queue (like that casino owner who flew to the Yukon to pretend to be a native American to get the vaccine earlier, or politicians in some countries making sure they get vaccinated first).
Then have BAME people saying:
- "No, let some rich white guy have mine; I'll just go to the back of the queue." - "No, I've fallen for the propaganda online that's meant to turn me off this, so someone richer can get further up the queue" - "No, we shouldn't forget those poor white millionaires who want theirs sooner." - "It's fine, I'll take my chance with slowly choking to death."
Finishing with a trusted BAME celebrity saying: "If you want to fall for it and give up your place in line, that's up to you. Me, well, when it's my turn - without jumping the queue - anyone gets in my way and they'll have footprints on them."
And words written on it: "Take what's yours. Take your shot."
Just update the Don't Die Of Ignorance AIDS campaign.
Another rare occasion when the Government got something exactly right in my opinion. Those adverts scared the bejesus out of me as single 20 year old. Probably the best advertising campaign I have ever seen.
So much so that I thought sex was intrinsically dangerous for most of the 1990s.
Plenty of time. But he does need something of his to really catch people's attention and fix an image in peoples' minds. Goodness knows what though.
Starmer is awful, dull and clueless, as his actions in 2019 demonstrated.
He's also a nasty arsehole careerist.
While MPs like Luciana Berger were getting bullied out of the Labour Party he chose to serve in the Shadow Cabinet to further his own career and put forward Corbyn as PM.
Only those who refused to serve under Corbyn should have been considered as possible Labour Party leaders. A Labour led by Yvette Cooper would be a credible threat right now.
Farage voter says that Keir Starmer is "nasty".
Do we have a category prize for this?
I am not and never have been a Farage voter.
Apart from voting for a party led by him.
I voted to leave the EU, have the British contingent of the European Parliament abolished and Farage tossed out as an elected politician as a result, yes.
I'd do it again. No regrets from voting to evict Farage.
I've never eaten chocolate but I once purchased a 99 and with great relish consumed the flake.
What point are you trying to make?
I voted to evict Farage from the European Parliament. If he ever found his way into Westminster and I had a way to evict him from that I'd be quite tempted to take it. Wouldn't you?
The point I'm making is that when I see a person who (i) is prepared to vote - even once - for a Farage party and yet (ii) claims to have been so mortified by the xenophobia showed by Theresa May's "Citizens of Nowhere" speech and her "Go Home" vans that they resign from the Tory Party, I smell a rat. Not accusing you of anything terrible. You're an excellent poster in many ways. But I am deeply skeptical of some of what you proclaim as your "principles". It doesn't entirely scan to me. I think you're driven mainly by EngNat.
I have never voted for Farage to be elected to a Parliament.
I have once voted for Farage to be ejected from a Parliament.
Like a reality TV show when it flips between "vote to evict" and "vote to save".
Do you see the difference?
I get the circumstances, yes, and my conclusion is unchanged. I read you as an unusual mix of Market Fundamentalist and English Nationalist who sometimes pops a button or two when attempting to meld all that together in a way that is consistent and avoids its less savoury aspects.
You should be flattered I'm interested in you. Other posters will be jealous.
I am a free marketeer and liberal. I am very libertarian. Disappointed in you that you completely omitted social liberalism in any sense.
But yes I am an English nationalist, I don't hide that nor is there a contradiction.
Everyone is a nationalist to some degree. The only question is where you put the nation. There is absolutely nothing wrong with nationalism whatsoever and most "sins" supposedly to do with nationalism are actually about imperialism, I am not an imperialist.
Etc. All fine. And don't strain to be totally free of contradiction. Absurdity that way lies.
But you pressed me on the specific and so I elaborated. It could be that Mrs May's xenophobia utterly repelled you. But I don't think that was really it - although I am happy to accept you were less than impressed. I think your dominant political identity had by then become Hard Leave and seeing her engaged in a great betrayal of this you were minded to seize on every flaw of hers, if necessary with hindsight, and magnify it on a x10 setting.
That's my offering to you to complement your self-imaging of what transpired. I make it with no malice. If you don't want these sorts of challenging and deeply personal insights you shouldn't have invited me into your life.
Except I quit the party as soon as she won the leadership election - and objected to her as soon as she was nominated before even the MP votes in the leadership election for the xenophobia reason.
So how do you possibly reconcile that with me objecting to her because of a "betrayal" that came years later?
Your logic is like Toby Young's logic that vaccine doses given after deaths rose were causing deaths.
Global travel site Big 7 Travel has released the official 2021 list of the ’25 Best UK Staycations’; the top ten, in order:
Cornwall – England The Lake District – England Yorkshire Dales – England Edinburgh – Scotland Loch Lomond – Scotland Isle of Wight – England Norfolk Broads – England Bath – England Ballycastle – Northern Ireland Manchester – England
6. Isle of Wight
This island off England’s southeast coast is famous for many things, from its stunning sandy beaches to its vibrant local culture and rich prehistoric history. One of the island’s biggest claims to fames is its plethora of fossils that have led to the discovery of more than 25 different dinosaurs that called Isle of Wight home in their day. For more recent history, there’s Queen Victoria’s royal former residence and Italian Renaissance dream in East Cowes, the Osborne House. And for a break from the tranquil sandy beaches, head to The Needles rock formation off the west end of the island.
Guardian breaking: Doctors and public health officials have pleaded with Germans to take up AstraZeneca Covid vaccines against the coronavirus, AFP reports. German healthcare facilities have reported several hundred thousand vials sitting unused and rampant no-shows at scheduled appointments.
Officials in Italy, Austria and Bulgaria were also starting to signal some public resistance to the British vaccine, and France’s health minister, Olivier Véran, got the jab live on television to drum up support.
“If you are given the choice between AstraZeneca now or another vaccine in a few months, you should definitely take AstraZeneca now,” implored Carsten Watzl, general secretary of the German Society for Immunology.
The health minister, Jens Spahn, echoed the message, calling all three vaccines approved in the EU – AstraZeneca, BioNTech/Pfizer and Moderna – “safe and effective” despite varying levels of efficacy.
How did that possibly happen.....its as if high profile individuals and media outlets have been reporting that its a shit vaccine based on pseudo-science.
It is almost like the EU hired Andrew Wakefield to be in the charge of the vaccine rollout.
Anyone know what Chris Grayling is doing these days?
Energy Secretary of Texas.
Is there any chance we could offer him to China in charge of the Uigher re-education programme?
If they accepted, think of the lives it would save.
Guardian breaking: Doctors and public health officials have pleaded with Germans to take up AstraZeneca Covid vaccines against the coronavirus, AFP reports. German healthcare facilities have reported several hundred thousand vials sitting unused and rampant no-shows at scheduled appointments.
Officials in Italy, Austria and Bulgaria were also starting to signal some public resistance to the British vaccine, and France’s health minister, Olivier Véran, got the jab live on television to drum up support.
“If you are given the choice between AstraZeneca now or another vaccine in a few months, you should definitely take AstraZeneca now,” implored Carsten Watzl, general secretary of the German Society for Immunology.
The health minister, Jens Spahn, echoed the message, calling all three vaccines approved in the EU – AstraZeneca, BioNTech/Pfizer and Moderna – “safe and effective” despite varying levels of efficacy.
How did that possibly happen.....its as if high profile individuals and media outlets have been reporting that its a shit vaccine based on pseudo-science.
It is almost like the EU hired Andrew Wakefield to be in the charge of the vaccine rollout.
Anyone know what Chris Grayling is doing these days?
I still remember when I’d leave the house each morning for my late morning walk with the dog to see his empty no deal Brexit ferry sailing past. Ah, happier, more innocent times.
Guardian breaking: Doctors and public health officials have pleaded with Germans to take up AstraZeneca Covid vaccines against the coronavirus, AFP reports. German healthcare facilities have reported several hundred thousand vials sitting unused and rampant no-shows at scheduled appointments.
Officials in Italy, Austria and Bulgaria were also starting to signal some public resistance to the British vaccine, and France’s health minister, Olivier Véran, got the jab live on television to drum up support.
“If you are given the choice between AstraZeneca now or another vaccine in a few months, you should definitely take AstraZeneca now,” implored Carsten Watzl, general secretary of the German Society for Immunology.
The health minister, Jens Spahn, echoed the message, calling all three vaccines approved in the EU – AstraZeneca, BioNTech/Pfizer and Moderna – “safe and effective” despite varying levels of efficacy.
How did that possibly happen.....its as if high profile individuals and media outlets have been reporting that its a shit vaccine based on pseudo-science.
It is almost like the EU hired Andrew Wakefield to be in the charge of the vaccine rollout.
Ah, I see someone else has already spotted the "EU citizens running in terror from the Oxford jab" story.
So, they don't have their shots, the continental lockdowns last longer and more of them die.
At the end of all this somebody should ask people like Macron and that tit from that German newspaper whether they might, perhaps, regret some of the rot that they've come out with. It's arguably worse than Trump's bleach remarks, which were, at least, transparently ridiculous.
Guardian breaking: Doctors and public health officials have pleaded with Germans to take up AstraZeneca Covid vaccines against the coronavirus, AFP reports. German healthcare facilities have reported several hundred thousand vials sitting unused and rampant no-shows at scheduled appointments.
Officials in Italy, Austria and Bulgaria were also starting to signal some public resistance to the British vaccine, and France’s health minister, Olivier Véran, got the jab live on television to drum up support.
“If you are given the choice between AstraZeneca now or another vaccine in a few months, you should definitely take AstraZeneca now,” implored Carsten Watzl, general secretary of the German Society for Immunology.
The health minister, Jens Spahn, echoed the message, calling all three vaccines approved in the EU – AstraZeneca, BioNTech/Pfizer and Moderna – “safe and effective” despite varying levels of efficacy.
They really have set themselves up for a catastrophe, haven't they? To make it even worse, their schedules depend on getting going with the J&J vaccine as soon as they can, but people are likely to be reluctant to take that one as well.
They've probably stoked antivax sentiment for years if not decades to come.
God, I hope not.
Its not like a lightbulb you can just switch off. They've played with fire, once you object to one its easier to object to others.
We are now, albeit very weakly, at the way round I expected the data to be once vaccination started to take hold, namely:
Deaths falling faster than Hospitalisations Hospitalisations falling faster than Cases
Given that deaths lag, it has more typically been the other way round on downswings until now.
I'd expect the gaps to widen as we go along and the fall in deaths to further outstrip other measures as we continue.
I have sympathy, this time, with Contrarian's view that Cases could soon become a poor arbiter of what we should do and how hard we should lockdown. Not yet, but soon.
I do wonder what the impact on the numbers re-opening the schools will have.
cases up, rest relatively unaffected - at least for the first few weeks.
I fear our media will focus on the worst and demand lockdown lasts a little bit longer.
They can't make their mind up day to day which side they are on - at least the Mail can't. However, I do think that this lockdown is fraying a bit round the edges, and if they want to follow thir readers then your fears may not come to pass.
During the first wave their record was 90 minutes.
Article 1 - Why hasn't Boris Johnson eased restrictions as cases drop?
Article 2 - It's murder Tuesday as deaths increase 70% on yesterday. Here's where Boris Johnson should tighten restrictions further.
The Mail does very well because it understands human hypocrisy, and the contradictions inherent in the electorate, perfectly.
Global travel site Big 7 Travel has released the official 2021 list of the ’25 Best UK Staycations’; the top ten, in order:
Cornwall – England The Lake District – England Yorkshire Dales – England Edinburgh – Scotland Loch Lomond – Scotland Isle of Wight – England Norfolk Broads – England Bath – England Ballycastle – Northern Ireland Manchester – England
6. Isle of Wight
This island off England’s southeast coast is famous for many things, from its stunning sandy beaches to its vibrant local culture and rich prehistoric history. One of the island’s biggest claims to fames is its plethora of fossils that have led to the discovery of more than 25 different dinosaurs that called Isle of Wight home in their day. For more recent history, there’s Queen Victoria’s royal former residence and Italian Renaissance dream in East Cowes, the Osborne House. And for a break from the tranquil sandy beaches, head to The Needles rock formation off the west end of the island.
Guardian breaking: Doctors and public health officials have pleaded with Germans to take up AstraZeneca Covid vaccines against the coronavirus, AFP reports. German healthcare facilities have reported several hundred thousand vials sitting unused and rampant no-shows at scheduled appointments.
Officials in Italy, Austria and Bulgaria were also starting to signal some public resistance to the British vaccine, and France’s health minister, Olivier Véran, got the jab live on television to drum up support.
“If you are given the choice between AstraZeneca now or another vaccine in a few months, you should definitely take AstraZeneca now,” implored Carsten Watzl, general secretary of the German Society for Immunology.
The health minister, Jens Spahn, echoed the message, calling all three vaccines approved in the EU – AstraZeneca, BioNTech/Pfizer and Moderna – “safe and effective” despite varying levels of efficacy.
How did that possibly happen.....its as if high profile individuals and media outlets have been reporting that its a shit vaccine based on pseudo-science.
It is almost like the EU hired Andrew Wakefield to be in the charge of the vaccine rollout.
Ah, I see someone else has already spotted the "EU citizens running in terror from the Oxford jab" story.
So, they don't have their shots, the continental lockdowns last longer and more of them die.
At the end of all this somebody should ask people like Macron and that tit from that German newspaper whether they might, perhaps, regret some of the rot that they've come out with. It's arguably worse than Trump's bleach remarks, which were, at least, transparently ridiculous.
Sadly, it's probably more important to them to sledge the UK and protect political myths about the EU, than save a few thousand lives.
They'd probably use confirmation bias to convince themselves the "cost" was worth it versus the many more lives that they suspect would be lost if the EU collapsed.
Hmm. Not sure the BBC news are doing Starmer any favours
I am sat in the other room from where my wife is watching TV but can hear the 6 O'clock news. I have not seen any details of today's speech but the presenter just started the item with:
"Sir Keir Starmer has set out his vision for Britain promising a moral crusade"
I am sorry but when people start talking about moral crusades as if their morals are somehow representative of the whole country I start to run in the other direction.
That's a disaster - Back to Basics II. From now on, when so much as a Labour town councillor gets caught with his trousers down, it will all be Sir Keir's fault.
It's probably a bad idea and could potentially stoke up racial tensions, but I had a mad idea for a videa to promote BAME take-up of vaccination.
Start with news stories about rich and powerful people jumping the queue (like that casino owner who flew to the Yukon to pretend to be a native American to get the vaccine earlier, or politicians in some countries making sure they get vaccinated first).
Then have BAME people saying:
- "No, let some rich white guy have mine; I'll just go to the back of the queue." - "No, I've fallen for the propaganda online that's meant to turn me off this, so someone richer can get further up the queue" - "No, we shouldn't forget those poor white millionaires who want theirs sooner." - "It's fine, I'll take my chance with slowly choking to death."
Finishing with a trusted BAME celebrity saying: "If you want to fall for it and give up your place in line, that's up to you. Me, well, when it's my turn - without jumping the queue - anyone gets in my way and they'll have footprints on them."
And words written on it: "Take what's yours. Take your shot."
Just update the Don't Die Of Ignorance AIDS campaign.
Another rare occasion when the Government got something exactly right in my opinion. Those adverts scared the bejesus out of me as single 18 year old. Probably the best advertising campaign I have ever seen.
Norman Fowler’s famous pledge in the commons to send 23 million leaflets to every household in Britain was slightly excessive though.
Just checked, Ted Cruz is up for re-election in 2024, is it possible for him to run for the GOP nomination and hold his seat?
Given how close it was last time, his sole focus should be on Texas.
I believe he can in law do both, although he would have to resign his seat to become President so there seems little point.
In practice, it would surely look really bad if he tried to hold his Senate seat as well. For a start, it would suggest he thought he had no chance of winning the Presidency. For another, it would tie him to Texas.
So I think he will, in the real world, have to make a decision.
I don’t think he has any chance of the nomination, still less the presidency, tbh, so he’d be better trying to hold his seat in the Senate.
It's probably a bad idea and could potentially stoke up racial tensions, but I had a mad idea for a videa to promote BAME take-up of vaccination.
Start with news stories about rich and powerful people jumping the queue (like that casino owner who flew to the Yukon to pretend to be a native American to get the vaccine earlier, or politicians in some countries making sure they get vaccinated first).
Then have BAME people saying:
- "No, let some rich white guy have mine; I'll just go to the back of the queue." - "No, I've fallen for the propaganda online that's meant to turn me off this, so someone richer can get further up the queue" - "No, we shouldn't forget those poor white millionaires who want theirs sooner." - "It's fine, I'll take my chance with slowly choking to death."
Finishing with a trusted BAME celebrity saying: "If you want to fall for it and give up your place in line, that's up to you. Me, well, when it's my turn - without jumping the queue - anyone gets in my way and they'll have footprints on them."
And words written on it: "Take what's yours. Take your shot."
Just update the Don't Die Of Ignorance AIDS campaign.
It'll take a heck of an update - I don't think skeleton puppets have the same shock value they once did.
I think I was eight and it was the tombstones I remember the most.
My parents didn't have a TV set when I was little - we borrowed video/TV from family friends sometimes and either watched Chariots of Fire or The Railway Children.
Watched it at friends' houses, but rarely after the watershed. I saw this campaign after the fact, and just remembered the ten pin bowling deaths.
Global travel site Big 7 Travel has released the official 2021 list of the ’25 Best UK Staycations’; the top ten, in order:
Cornwall – England The Lake District – England Yorkshire Dales – England Edinburgh – Scotland Loch Lomond – Scotland Isle of Wight – England Norfolk Broads – England Bath – England Ballycastle – Northern Ireland Manchester – England
6. Isle of Wight
This island off England’s southeast coast is famous for many things, from its stunning sandy beaches to its vibrant local culture and rich prehistoric history. One of the island’s biggest claims to fames is its plethora of fossils that have led to the discovery of more than 25 different dinosaurs that called Isle of Wight home in their day. For more recent history, there’s Queen Victoria’s royal former residence and Italian Renaissance dream in East Cowes, the Osborne House. And for a break from the tranquil sandy beaches, head to The Needles rock formation off the west end of the island.
Just checked, Ted Cruz is up for re-election in 2024, is it possible for him to run for the GOP nomination and hold his seat?
Given how close it was last time, his sole focus should be on Texas.
Answer to your question is Yes, unless TX law has changed recently.
Note that in 1960, Lyndon Johnson was on the Texas general election ballot twice, as candidate for re-election to US Senate AND as Democratic candidate for Vice President (as JFK's running mate). He was elected VP, so gave up senate seat.
In 1984, Lloyd Benson was also on the general election ballot twice in Lone Star State, running for re-election to US Senate and also for VP (on Dem ticket with Walter Mondale); since he was NOT elected VP, Benson stayed in the Senate.
Note that Texas law thus gives a sitting US Senator the chance of retaining their seat for another full term AND also running for President OR Vice President. LBJ won both elections, so could take his (obvious) choice. Lloyd Benson lost for VP (nationally AND in Texas) but was still able to retain his senate seat.
On topic, thanks for this @Fishing. Fascinating analysis.
I've had my fingers burnt in the past by trying to be too clever and model everything, which led me to a false level of certainty.
Now, I look at all the data in the round and try and read the runes, which includes what focus groups are saying and what people are talking about.
On the betting I'm much more about broad ranges and errors bands, and seeking out obvious discrepancies for value where they exist, and I leave the statistical modelling to those far better qualified than I am.
Guardian breaking: Doctors and public health officials have pleaded with Germans to take up AstraZeneca Covid vaccines against the coronavirus, AFP reports. German healthcare facilities have reported several hundred thousand vials sitting unused and rampant no-shows at scheduled appointments.
Officials in Italy, Austria and Bulgaria were also starting to signal some public resistance to the British vaccine, and France’s health minister, Olivier Véran, got the jab live on television to drum up support.
“If you are given the choice between AstraZeneca now or another vaccine in a few months, you should definitely take AstraZeneca now,” implored Carsten Watzl, general secretary of the German Society for Immunology.
The health minister, Jens Spahn, echoed the message, calling all three vaccines approved in the EU – AstraZeneca, BioNTech/Pfizer and Moderna – “safe and effective” despite varying levels of efficacy.
How did that possibly happen.....its as if high profile individuals and media outlets have been reporting that its a shit vaccine based on pseudo-science.
It is almost like the EU hired Andrew Wakefield to be in the charge of the vaccine rollout.
Ah, I see someone else has already spotted the "EU citizens running in terror from the Oxford jab" story.
So, they don't have their shots, the continental lockdowns last longer and more of them die.
At the end of all this somebody should ask people like Macron and that tit from that German newspaper whether they might, perhaps, regret some of the rot that they've come out with. It's arguably worse than Trump's bleach remarks, which were, at least, transparently ridiculous.
Sadly, it's probably more important to them to sledge the UK and protect political myths about the EU, than save a few thousand lives.
They'd probably use confirmation bias to convince themselves the "cost" was worth it versus the many more lives that they suspect would be lost if the EU collapsed.
What's amazing is the number of people who even now are convinced that the UK's success so far is just some kind of fluke or illusion and the EU will catch up and overtake us before long. It's a complete refusal to accept reality.
Global travel site Big 7 Travel has released the official 2021 list of the ’25 Best UK Staycations’; the top ten, in order:
Cornwall – England The Lake District – England Yorkshire Dales – England Edinburgh – Scotland Loch Lomond – Scotland Isle of Wight – England Norfolk Broads – England Bath – England Ballycastle – Northern Ireland Manchester – England
6. Isle of Wight
This island off England’s southeast coast is famous for many things, from its stunning sandy beaches to its vibrant local culture and rich prehistoric history. One of the island’s biggest claims to fames is its plethora of fossils that have led to the discovery of more than 25 different dinosaurs that called Isle of Wight home in their day. For more recent history, there’s Queen Victoria’s royal former residence and Italian Renaissance dream in East Cowes, the Osborne House. And for a break from the tranquil sandy beaches, head to The Needles rock formation off the west end of the island.
Norwich is lovely (or at least the parts that survived the Baedeker raids are.) So are the Broads, although Wroxham is probably worth avoiding for the Summer (assuming we're finally let out of prison that soon,) unless you enjoy spending three hours sat in a traffic jam.
London has a suite of superb tourist attractions but there might not be very much left of the shopping and entertainment businesses by the time the hotels are unshuttered, whatever is left of the nightlife probably won't be allowed to open until the middle of 2022, and an extended stay in a grotty inner city isn't to everybody's taste.
Northumberland definitely deserves an honourable mention, but these lists are always partial.
Katy Balls: Once the impact of the vaccines is visible, MPs are banking on a shift in public opinion. “Once the over-50s are done,” says one, “the political room gets small for the prime minister. People will go about their business.” If Johnson deviates far from his original aim of a scientific cavalry stopping the NHS from being overwhelmed, he will have a lockdown rebellion on his hands.
Global travel site Big 7 Travel has released the official 2021 list of the ’25 Best UK Staycations’; the top ten, in order:
Cornwall – England The Lake District – England Yorkshire Dales – England Edinburgh – Scotland Loch Lomond – Scotland Isle of Wight – England Norfolk Broads – England Bath – England Ballycastle – Northern Ireland Manchester – England
6. Isle of Wight
This island off England’s southeast coast is famous for many things, from its stunning sandy beaches to its vibrant local culture and rich prehistoric history. One of the island’s biggest claims to fames is its plethora of fossils that have led to the discovery of more than 25 different dinosaurs that called Isle of Wight home in their day. For more recent history, there’s Queen Victoria’s royal former residence and Italian Renaissance dream in East Cowes, the Osborne House. And for a break from the tranquil sandy beaches, head to The Needles rock formation off the west end of the island.
I’ve as much chance of winning this one as I have of fixing official season dates, but for the last time a staycation is staying in your own home and taking day trips. A holiday in Cornwall, assuming you don’t live there, is called a holiday.
I am watching an 80's sci fi programme called STAR COPS. It's a UK-made programme, starring David Calder as a reluctant 'space detective'. It's set in the near future (I think) - at any rate everybody is wearing 80's garb with very little alteration. It's not wholly bad - a police procedural set in space.
Its vision for the (near) future is quite interesting - there are stations in space, but there's still quite a lot of stuff we would recognise, zero gravity and old style space suits. Space travel is portrayed with quite a lot of privation and hardship as opposed to everyone whizzing everywhere and teleporting from planet to planet. Of course the Soviets still exist as everyone assumed they would!
Special effects are as ropey as you'd expect and use dodgy green screen heavily. However, their portrayal of zero gravity is quite clever - I'm not immediately sure how they've done it.
Just checked, Ted Cruz is up for re-election in 2024, is it possible for him to run for the GOP nomination and hold his seat?
Given how close it was last time, his sole focus should be on Texas.
Answer to your question is Yes, unless TX law has changed recently.
Note that in 1960, Lyndon Johnson was on the Texas general election ballot twice, as candidate for re-election to US Senate AND as Democratic candidate for Vice President (as JFK's running mate). He was elected VP, so gave up senate seat.
In 1984, Lloyd Benson was also on the general election ballot twice in Lone Star State, running for re-election to US Senate and also for VP (on Dem ticket with Walter Mondale); since he was NOT elected VP, Benson stayed in the Senate.
Note that Texas law thus gives a sitting US Senator the chance of retaining their seat for another full term AND also running for President OR Vice President. LBJ won both elections, so could take his (obvious) choice. Lloyd Benson lost for VP (nationally AND in Texas) but was still able to retain his senate seat.
ERROR ALERT- Think I screwed up re: Lloyd Benson, am doing some further research!
Comments
https://twitter.com/Lokoschat/status/1362456323284164609
https://twitter.com/RichardClegg522/status/1362458799714562048?s=20
https://www.swindonadvertiser.co.uk/news/19087807.authorities-tackle-covid-outbreak-hmp-erlestoke/
Authorities tackle Covid outbreak at HMP Erlestoke.
https://www.gazetteandherald.co.uk/news/19087807.authorities-tackle-covid-outbreak-hmp-erlestoke/
Glad the G6 people are getting done now so quickly. Makes a big difference.
Incidentally, for anyone interested in the subject, Chris Whitty recently gave a good lecture on vaccines (not specifically for Covid) in the Gresham College series. He mentions the need for booster doses in the talk:
https://www.gresham.ac.uk/lectures-and-events/vaccination
My concern would be that the slicker and more emotionally persuasive the ad, the more it plays into the notion of a sinister state effort to force people to get the shot.
However, I might have a go at it at some point.
The only curio was 1997 where the Tories led on the economic question but trailed Blair so much on the leadership to be odd, especially after Black Wednesday.
I might update that piece.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/australia-internet-law-tim-berners-lee-b1803988.html
Deaths falling faster than Hospitalisations
Hospitalisations falling faster than Cases
Given that deaths lag, it has more typically been the other way round on downswings until now.
I'd expect the gaps to widen as we go along and the fall in deaths to further outstrip other measures as we continue.
I have sympathy, this time, with Contrarian's view that Cases could soon become a poor arbiter of what we should do and how hard we should lockdown. Not yet, but soon.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9274907/Now-scientists-spot-variant-Finland-detects-new-strain.html
We should prioritise prisoners and prison staff for the vaccine to avoid things like this.
Multiple Twitter users posted photos showing Cruz and his family at Houston's airport and aboard a flight bound for Cancun, Mexico. The same person familiar with the trip confirmed to CNN that Cruz is booked on a flight from Cancun back to Houston on Thursday afternoon.
The trip was immediately criticized, including by Texas state Rep. Gene Wu, a Democrat representing southwest Houston, who tweeted a photo of Cruz aboard a flight, saying Cruz was flying south "while the state was freezing to death and having to boil water."
CNN has repeatedly reached out to Cruz's office and people in his orbit late Wednesday night and Thursday morning but they did not respond to multiple requests for comment.
Also helped we had a PM who understood the dangers of exponential growth.
Officials in Italy, Austria and Bulgaria were also starting to signal some public resistance to the British vaccine, and France’s health minister, Olivier Véran, got the jab live on television to drum up support.
“If you are given the choice between AstraZeneca now or another vaccine in a few months, you should definitely take AstraZeneca now,” implored Carsten Watzl, general secretary of the German Society for Immunology.
The health minister, Jens Spahn, echoed the message, calling all three vaccines approved in the EU – AstraZeneca, BioNTech/Pfizer and Moderna – “safe and effective” despite varying levels of efficacy.
Currently both leaders can claim to be in the lead depending upon how you define lead.
I am sat in the other room from where my wife is watching TV but can hear the 6 O'clock news. I have not seen any details of today's speech but the presenter just started the item with:
"Sir Keir Starmer has set out his vision for Britain promising a moral crusade"
I am sorry but when people start talking about moral crusades as if their morals are somehow representative of the whole country I start to run in the other direction.
But you lived in a Lib Dem marginal in Ceredigion, you must be used to this kind of deluge, no?
Local elections I had a fair few from them.
And then consistently voted Plaid.
But you pressed me on the specific and so I elaborated. It could be that Mrs May's xenophobia utterly repelled you. But I don't think that was really it - although I am happy to accept you were less than impressed. I think your dominant political identity had by then become Hard Leave and seeing her engaged in a great betrayal of this you were minded to seize on every flaw of hers, if necessary with hindsight, and magnify it on a x10 setting.
That's my offering to you to complement your self-imaging of what transpired. I make it with no malice. If you don't want these sorts of challenging and deeply personal insights you shouldn't have invited me into your life.
Genuinely moving throughout.
A bit of an oversimplification perhaps but it accounts for most of the inconsistencies.
Also remember everyone who says most loudly that lockdown must continue ad nauseam thinks lockdown applies *to other people* not to themselves.
To Newcastle
I met a man the other day--
A kindly man, and serious--
Who viewed me in a thoughtful way,
And spoke me so, and spoke me thus:
"Oh, dallying's a sad mistake;
'Tis craven to survey the morrow!
Go give your heart, and if it break--
A wise companion is Sorrow.
"Oh, live, my child, nor keep your soul
To crowd your coffin when you're dead...."
I asked his work; he dealt in coal,
And shipped it up the Tyne, he said.
Cornwall – England
The Lake District – England
Yorkshire Dales – England
Edinburgh – Scotland
Loch Lomond – Scotland
Isle of Wight – England
Norfolk Broads – England
Bath – England
Ballycastle – Northern Ireland
Manchester – England
6. Isle of Wight
This island off England’s southeast coast is famous for many things, from its stunning sandy beaches to its vibrant local culture and rich prehistoric history. One of the island’s biggest claims to fames is its plethora of fossils that have led to the discovery of more than 25 different dinosaurs that called Isle of Wight home in their day. For more recent history, there’s Queen Victoria’s royal former residence and Italian Renaissance dream in East Cowes, the Osborne House. And for a break from the tranquil sandy beaches, head to The Needles rock formation off the west end of the island.
11 - Cotswolds
12 - Snowdonia
13 - Scilly Isles
14 - Anglesey
15 - London (!)
16 - N Yorks moors
17 - Pembroke coast
18 - Orkney
19 - Brighton
20 - Skye
21 - Norwich (?)
22 - Inverness
23 - Cardiff
24 - Derry
25 - Oxford
Article 1 - Why hasn't Boris Johnson eased restrictions as cases drop?
Article 2 - It's murder Tuesday as deaths increase 70% on yesterday. Here's where Boris Johnson should tighten restrictions further.
So how do you possibly reconcile that with me objecting to her because of a "betrayal" that came years later?
Your logic is like Toby Young's logic that vaccine doses given after deaths rose were causing deaths.
Although you won't necessarily have a good stay in stroke city (no.24) if you insist on calling it just that.
If they accepted, think of the lives it would save.
So, they don't have their shots, the continental lockdowns last longer and more of them die.
At the end of all this somebody should ask people like Macron and that tit from that German newspaper whether they might, perhaps, regret some of the rot that they've come out with. It's arguably worse than Trump's bleach remarks, which were, at least, transparently ridiculous.
Don't blame the player blame the game.
Given how close it was last time, his sole focus should be on Texas.
They'd probably use confirmation bias to convince themselves the "cost" was worth it versus the many more lives that they suspect would be lost if the EU collapsed.
Q: Apparently only one shot in six of the Sputnik V vaccinations work.
A: It's Russian rollout.
In practice, it would surely look really bad if he tried to hold his Senate seat as well. For a start, it would suggest he thought he had no chance of winning the Presidency. For another, it would tie him to Texas.
So I think he will, in the real world, have to make a decision.
I don’t think he has any chance of the nomination, still less the presidency, tbh, so he’d be better trying to hold his seat in the Senate.
Watched it at friends' houses, but rarely after the watershed. I saw this campaign after the fact, and just remembered the ten pin bowling deaths.
Please tell me that was a windup.
(Admittedly, it was not as good as that Mascarpone one you didn’t get a while back.)
I hope everybody else does too.
Note that in 1960, Lyndon Johnson was on the Texas general election ballot twice, as candidate for re-election to US Senate AND as Democratic candidate for Vice President (as JFK's running mate). He was elected VP, so gave up senate seat.
In 1984, Lloyd Benson was also on the general election ballot twice in Lone Star State, running for re-election to US Senate and also for VP (on Dem ticket with Walter Mondale); since he was NOT elected VP, Benson stayed in the Senate.
Note that Texas law thus gives a sitting US Senator the chance of retaining their seat for another full term AND also running for President OR Vice President. LBJ won both elections, so could take his (obvious) choice. Lloyd Benson lost for VP (nationally AND in Texas) but was still able to retain his senate seat.
I've had my fingers burnt in the past by trying to be too clever and model everything, which led me to a false level of certainty.
Now, I look at all the data in the round and try and read the runes, which includes what focus groups are saying and what people are talking about.
On the betting I'm much more about broad ranges and errors bands, and seeking out obvious discrepancies for value where they exist, and I leave the statistical modelling to those far better qualified than I am.
London has a suite of superb tourist attractions but there might not be very much left of the shopping and entertainment businesses by the time the hotels are unshuttered, whatever is left of the nightlife probably won't be allowed to open until the middle of 2022, and an extended stay in a grotty inner city isn't to everybody's taste.
Northumberland definitely deserves an honourable mention, but these lists are always partial.
I still want to cross the street whenever I see a substation.
https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1362460723201384448?s=20
Its vision for the (near) future is quite interesting - there are stations in space, but there's still quite a lot of stuff we would recognise, zero gravity and old style space suits. Space travel is portrayed with quite a lot of privation and hardship as opposed to everyone whizzing everywhere and teleporting from planet to planet. Of course the Soviets still exist as everyone assumed they would!
Special effects are as ropey as you'd expect and use dodgy green screen heavily. However, their portrayal of zero gravity is quite clever - I'm not immediately sure how they've done it.