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Sturgeon blocks Trump’s reported plan to be in Scotland on Inauguration Day – politicalbetting.com

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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,678
    edited January 2021
    Perdue currently holds a lead of 1,100 votes over Ossoff. Edit: now 919.

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/results/senate
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,289
    CNN: Just 27% of California’s vaccine doses have been administered so far. A total of 459,654 doses had been administered as of Tuesday, but just over 5,200 shots were given out in the past 24 hours. Health officials say they are struggling to vaccinate people against the virus as health workers are overwhelmed treating the sick and navigating state logistical issues. The state is now authorizing dentists to administer the shots in a push to accelerate deployment
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    edited January 2021
    Vaccines update, some new stats, as the UK should update today. At least 6.5% of all vaccines have been in the UK.

    France up to a massive 5,000.


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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,289
    Does Congress hold two hours of debate on EACH properly made objection to a state’s EC votes, or two hours discussions all such objections made in one session? If the former, they could be at it for a long time.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,289
    edited January 2021
    Sandpit said:

    Vaccines update, some new stats, as the UK should update today. At least 6.5% of all vaccines have been in the UK.

    France up to a massive 5,000.


    Despite a lot of complaint in the US that their vaccination program is encountering holdups and hiccups, they have achieved broadly the same rate of vaccination we have managed so far, in about half of the time. Or, at this rate, they will have done in a day or two.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Vaccines update, some new stats, as the UK should update today. At least 6.5% of all vaccines have been in the UK.

    France up to a massive 5,000.


    Despite a lot of complaint in the US that their vaccination program is encountering holdups and hiccups, they have achieved broadly the same rate of vaccination we have managed so far, in about half of the time. Or, at this rate, they will have done in a day or two.
    I think the US figure is from today, compared to more than a week ago for the UK.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Vaccines update, some new stats, as the UK should update today. At least 6.5% of all vaccines have been in the UK.

    France up to a massive 5,000.


    Despite a lot of complaint in the US that their vaccination program is encountering holdups and hiccups, they have achieved broadly the same rate of vaccination we have managed so far, in about half of the time. Or, at this rate, they will have done in a day or two.
    The U.K. figure should be a lot higher when announced today, perhaps close to 2m.

    The US issues appear to be distribution and injection, whereas the U.K. appears to be supply-limited.

    Israel, Bahrain and UAE are the countries to watch in terms of case numbers, they’re small but rich countries doing a lot of vaccinations. Israel is up to 13% of population.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,678
    edited January 2021
    In the election to decide whether the Senate is 50/50, the latest result is 50.0% vs 50.0%.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    Vaccine doses by population:



    (Source for these https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations)
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,631
    Barnesian said:

    I'm waiting to go to bed. I'm on my second large Talisker. But it's not yet a done deal for the Democrats. Nearly there I think.

    Ted Heath’s preferred tipple.
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    MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Scott_xP said:
    This is starting to look very sweet. The Democrats are on course to control the Senate.

    I'm also on course to win both my Ossoff bets at 3/1 which I tipped on here repeatedly. I don't know if anyone took them up.

    You can get 250/1 with Betfair on Ossoff for 2024 but I consider that much more fanciful, however good an operator he is.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,081
    Good results to wake up to :)
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    I don't want to tempt fate, but


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    MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    This is a stunning victory by the Democrats as they never normally perform well in runoffs. They will have control of both houses and the Presidency. It's an amazing turnaround.

    Mitch McConnell. Lolz.
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    Scott_xP said:
    This is starting to look very sweet. The Democrats are on course to control the Senate.

    I'm also on course to win both my Ossoff bets at 3/1 which I tipped on here repeatedly. I don't know if anyone took them up.

    You can get 250/1 with Betfair on Ossoff for 2024 but I consider that much more fanciful, however good an operator he is.
    I'm aftertiming both Dems at around 7/4 and 9/4.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,081
    I wonder if the GOP would have won if Mitch hadn’t blocked the stimulus cheques?
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    MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    And by the way, the opinion pollsters have done very well. Spot on. 538's mean leads for Warnock and Ossoff look very close to the final projected NYT result.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Anyone want 7 very entertaining minutes while they wait for whatever they're waiting for scroll down to Ricky Gervais at the Golden Globes. Someone posted a tweet about Romney earlier on and this follows on. It's funny

    https://twitter.com/Utah_17/status/1346630970506559488?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1346655391870926849|twgr^|twcon^s3_&ref_url=https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/9326/sturgeon-blocks-trump-s-reported-plan-to-be-in-scotland-on-inauguration-day-politicalbetting-com/p1
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    MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    I wonder if the GOP would have won if Mitch hadn’t blocked the stimulus cheques?

    Indeed. That final push by the Dems that if you vote for us you'll get a $2000 cheque instead of $650 and a vaccination may have clinched it.
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    MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Roger said:

    Anyone want 7 very entertaining minutes while they wait for whatever they're waiting for scroll down to Ricky Gervais at the Golden Globes. Someone posted a tweet about Romney earlier on and this follows on. It's funny

    https://twitter.com/Utah_17/status/1346630970506559488?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1346655391870926849|twgr^|twcon^s3_&ref_url=https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/9326/sturgeon-blocks-trump-s-reported-plan-to-be-in-scotland-on-inauguration-day-politicalbetting-com/p1

    What an irritating thing to have to listen to. I wish I hadn't bothered. Hideous woman.

    And he was quite right to take her to task about the mask. Muppet.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    edited January 2021

    I wonder if the GOP would have won if Mitch hadn’t blocked the stimulus cheques?

    I thought they had already been distributed?

    My US bank account says yes. :D
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,409
    edited January 2021

    Roger said:

    Anyone want 7 very entertaining minutes while they wait for whatever they're waiting for scroll down to Ricky Gervais at the Golden Globes. Someone posted a tweet about Romney earlier on and this follows on. It's funny

    https://twitter.com/Utah_17/status/1346630970506559488?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1346655391870926849|twgr^|twcon^s3_&ref_url=https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/9326/sturgeon-blocks-trump-s-reported-plan-to-be-in-scotland-on-inauguration-day-politicalbetting-com/p1

    What an irritating thing to have to listen to. I wish I hadn't bothered. Hideous woman.

    And he was quite right to take her to task about the mask. Muppet.
    Scolling through those Qtah tweets finds this -- apparently it is all our fault.
    Never forget Foreign interference is not just China. RussiaGate & ElectionGate were both designed by Britain’s government
    Eyes

    - The Royals
    - The House of Lords owned by Zionist
    - The city of London owned by Roths
    - MI5/MI6 agents of the crown
    - Soros who is a British covert agent

    twitter.com/Utah_17/status/1346239248542777344
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969

    Roger said:

    Anyone want 7 very entertaining minutes while they wait for whatever they're waiting for scroll down to Ricky Gervais at the Golden Globes. Someone posted a tweet about Romney earlier on and this follows on. It's funny

    https://twitter.com/Utah_17/status/1346630970506559488?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1346655391870926849|twgr^|twcon^s3_&ref_url=https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/9326/sturgeon-blocks-trump-s-reported-plan-to-be-in-scotland-on-inauguration-day-politicalbetting-com/p1

    What an irritating thing to have to listen to. I wish I hadn't bothered. Hideous woman.

    And he was quite right to take her to task about the mask. Muppet.
    Scolling through those Qtah tweets finds this -- apparently it is all our fault.
    Never forget Foreign interference is not just China. RussiaGate & ElectionGate were both designed by Britain’s government
    Eyes

    - The Royals
    - The House of Lords owned by Zionist
    - The city of London owned by Roths
    - MI5/MI6 agents of the crown
    - Soros who is a British covert agent

    twitter.com/Utah_17/status/1346239248542777344
    Good God. How on earth did he find out?
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Roger said:

    Anyone want 7 very entertaining minutes while they wait for whatever they're waiting for scroll down to Ricky Gervais at the Golden Globes. Someone posted a tweet about Romney earlier on and this follows on. It's funny

    https://twitter.com/Utah_17/status/1346630970506559488?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1346655391870926849|twgr^|twcon^s3_&ref_url=https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/9326/sturgeon-blocks-trump-s-reported-plan-to-be-in-scotland-on-inauguration-day-politicalbetting-com/p1

    What an irritating thing to have to listen to. I wish I hadn't bothered. Hideous woman.

    And he was quite right to take her to task about the mask. Muppet.
    Sorry it is irritating but Ricky Gervais further on down makes up for it.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,003
    Sandpit said:

    Vaccine doses by population:



    (Source for these https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations)

    That's about one-in-five Israeli adults. It will be very interesting to see how quickly CV19 is brought under control there.
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    MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Anyone want 7 very entertaining minutes while they wait for whatever they're waiting for scroll down to Ricky Gervais at the Golden Globes. Someone posted a tweet about Romney earlier on and this follows on. It's funny

    https://twitter.com/Utah_17/status/1346630970506559488?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1346655391870926849|twgr^|twcon^s3_&ref_url=https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/9326/sturgeon-blocks-trump-s-reported-plan-to-be-in-scotland-on-inauguration-day-politicalbetting-com/p1

    What an irritating thing to have to listen to. I wish I hadn't bothered. Hideous woman.

    And he was quite right to take her to task about the mask. Muppet.
    Sorry it is irritating but Ricky Gervais further on down makes up for it.
    On the twitter feed is that? I've come off twitter. It's a cesspit.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    I don't want to tempt fate, but


    What exactly are we looking at? The positioning of a fourth flag?
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    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    Maybe the real vaccination race is for the first company to get approval who can also actually produce their thing in extremely large numbers extremely quickly.

    The government has been boasting about having millions ready to go for weeks. Now it emerges that it is short.

    Pathetic.
    Not receiving delivery is one thing that cannot be laid at their door, surely?
    I tried to have that conversation with Anabobazina a day or two ago. Save your breath. They are just posting the same complaints over and over now.

    --AS
    Except the government have allowed the impression to develop that they're done a brilliant shopping job and the UK is going to knock Brer Virus out of the park in time for us to all go and enjoy the Boat Race.

    Meanwhile, our foolish neighbours will look on sadly and unvaccinated.

    It was always going to be more complicated than that, but the impression has been allowed to develop.

    So if it doesn't happen, the government is back in "Live by the sword, die by the sword" territory
    Yes, I agree that the government has got the messaging wrong. Consistently so (except perhaps on testing there they were ridiculed for over-promising and actually pretty much got there).

    I can't really understand why they keep making that mistake. It's clearly bad politics and bad tactics, but they keep falling into the same trap over and trap. It's pretty tragic really.

    --AS
    But saying stuff like this is what Boris always does. It's up there with "Of course I'll respect you in the morning."

    It's brilliant until the victims realise they've been taken for a ride. And he'll keep doing it for as long as he isn't punished for it.
    What I find odd is that it's only brilliant in the short term. Long term it's clearly bad strategy: I think the public know they've been conned and trust less because of it. My mother, for example, is not interested in politics but she twigged to this modus operandi ages ago.

    I was trying to figure this out. Either it's just because they think he can get away with it, that the public won't remember the broken promises. Or (and I find this possibility much more frightening) that those high up in government simply cannot accept the situation and are in denial about it because it's too painful to them, with nobody strong enough to stand up and force them to confront reality. It makes me realize that I'd preferred to be lied to by a devious government than to have a delusional one tell me honestly what they think...

    --AS
    Being lied to by a delusional government is worst of all, sadly.
    In most cases, the public have an attention span of about 6 months.
    The remainder care about things long dead and irrelevant.

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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    So today Kelly Loefflee, a politician who has clearly lost re-election, gets to vote to overturn another election her party clearly lost over two months ago. The US system is truly bizarre.

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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Vaccine doses by population:



    (Source for these https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations)

    That's about one-in-five Israeli adults. It will be very interesting to see how quickly CV19 is brought under control there.
    They should be the first country to reach a critical mass of vaccinations, probably by the end of Feb or thereabouts. Combined with testing on arrival for tourists, we should theoretically see their case numbers drop off a cliff from the current 2k cases/day.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898

    I don't want to tempt fate, but


    That’s from Saturday Night Live, not from CNN.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,579
    edited January 2021

    I think we are about to see another Tsunami of cross-country comparisons in the media using non-comparable date.

    See ... er ... March, April, May, June, July etc...
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,857
    Where Trump leads, may Boris follow.
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    So today Kelly Loefflee, a politician who has clearly lost re-election, gets to vote to overturn another election her party clearly lost over two months ago. The US system is truly bizarre.

    She has never been elected to anything! She was appointed
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    So today Kelly Loefflee, a politician who has clearly lost re-election, gets to vote to overturn another election her party clearly lost over two months ago. The US system is truly bizarre.

    Yay America!
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    If they are needed they will last til June, time for some to grow up. Personally I expect they will start to be relaxed quite quickly in March but it is largely controlled by the spread of the virus and vaccination rate, not politicians ideological preferences.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Georgia has certainly changed. I worked in Hawaii with a PA who lived in Georgia. Her sister had married a black Englishman who she told me couldn't visit them because their neighbours wouldn't understand. So she would come to England regularly to visit them. I was quite angry with her being accepting of this so we got off to a bad start. This was 1998. It sounds unbelievable now.
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    So today Kelly Loefflee, a politician who has clearly lost re-election, gets to vote to overturn another election her party clearly lost over two months ago. The US system is truly bizarre.

    Zac Goldsmith, for example, got a seat in Parliament and a Government promotion when he was crushingly rejected by the electorate last year. So not sure we're that well placed to call the US system bizarre from the UK.
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    And he only lost the presidency by encouraging voters not to mail in their ballots. Thats what happens when you are led by a toddler.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898

    If they are needed they will last til June, time for some to grow up. Personally I expect they will start to be relaxed quite quickly in March but it is largely controlled by the spread of the virus and vaccination rate, not politicians ideological preferences.
    The MPs have a point that such executive powers need to be under regular review though.

    I suspect one of them will propose an amendment saying that the powers should expire at the end of this month, and government will cave. This means that Parliament will have to vote again in three weeks’ time.
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    GaussianGaussian Posts: 793
    edited January 2021

    So today Kelly Loefflee, a politician who has clearly lost re-election, gets to vote to overturn another election her party clearly lost over two months ago. The US system is truly bizarre.

    I think the seats are vacant from Jan 3 until the new senators are sworn in.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,292
    I tend to think that we should give more credit to Stacey Abrams than Donald Trump for the results in Georgia.

    If the Democrats can take what she's done in Georgia to a bunch of other States - Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin for starters - then I think that would make a huge difference.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,686
    Roger said:

    Georgia has certainly changed. I worked in Hawaii with a PA who lived in Georgia. Her sister had married a black Englishman who she told me couldn't visit them because their neighbours wouldn't understand. So she would come to England regularly to visit them. I was quite angry with her being accepting of this so we got off to a bad start. This was 1998. It sounds unbelievable now.

    Look at this electoral change, a bit hard to say GA is blue...

    https://twitter.com/SidKhurana3607/status/1346723445359456258?s=19
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,289
    Freggles said:

    So today Kelly Loefflee, a politician who has clearly lost re-election, gets to vote to overturn another election her party clearly lost over two months ago. The US system is truly bizarre.

    She has never been elected to anything! She was appointed
    To only have served a year and been the subject of a scandal investigation is going some.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,289
    In other news, it is notable that even North Korea is announcing that tractor production has fallen short:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/06/north-korea-congress-kim-jong-un-economic-plan-failure-mistake-biden
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,134
    Scott_xP said:
    Let's just hope that once he is out of office the USA will be able to demonstrate another crucial principle - that no one is above the law.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,703
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,686
    Mass arrests of opposition activists in HK.

    https://twitter.com/SunnyCheungky/status/1346697790022242304?s=19
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Roger said:

    Georgia has certainly changed. I worked in Hawaii with a PA who lived in Georgia. Her sister had married a black Englishman who she told me couldn't visit them because their neighbours wouldn't understand. So she would come to England regularly to visit them. I was quite angry with her being accepting of this so we got off to a bad start. This was 1998. It sounds unbelievable now.

    and look what I just found! (It was an ad for Germany)

    https://www.facebook.com/bjorn.dunkerbeck/videos/242734523266912/
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,686
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Georgia has certainly changed. I worked in Hawaii with a PA who lived in Georgia. Her sister had married a black Englishman who she told me couldn't visit them because their neighbours wouldn't understand. So she would come to England regularly to visit them. I was quite angry with her being accepting of this so we got off to a bad start. This was 1998. It sounds unbelievable now.

    and look what I just found! (It was an ad for Germany)

    https://www.facebook.com/bjorn.dunkerbeck/videos/242734523266912/
    Nice work if you can get it!

    How is the advertising business at the minute?
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    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,897
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Vaccine doses by population:



    (Source for these https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations)

    That's about one-in-five Israeli adults. It will be very interesting to see how quickly CV19 is brought under control there.
    They should be the first country to reach a critical mass of vaccinations, probably by the end of Feb or thereabouts. Combined with testing on arrival for tourists, we should theoretically see their case numbers drop off a cliff from the current 2k cases/day.
    There won't be a cliff edge, it will be a smooth change over. But looking at the Israeli figures they have been smoothly increasing since mid November, with no Christmas-effect. So it should be fairly easy to see when the number of new cases starts decreasing.
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    GaussianGaussian Posts: 793
    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    Georgia has certainly changed. I worked in Hawaii with a PA who lived in Georgia. Her sister had married a black Englishman who she told me couldn't visit them because their neighbours wouldn't understand. So she would come to England regularly to visit them. I was quite angry with her being accepting of this so we got off to a bad start. This was 1998. It sounds unbelievable now.

    Look at this electoral change, a bit hard to say GA is blue...

    https://twitter.com/SidKhurana3607/status/1346723445359456258?s=19
    They had double Dem senators as recently as 2001-03.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Woke up this morning to see the American people have decided they want a far left government who's policy is driven by AOC and The Squad.

    Well, can't argue with that, will of the people and all that.

    I look forward to the new communist America.
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    If they are needed they will last til June, time for some to grow up. Personally I expect they will start to be relaxed quite quickly in March but it is largely controlled by the spread of the virus and vaccination rate, not politicians ideological preferences.
    No doubt but MPs may also be concerned that Boris once more has been economical with the actualité.
    And, critically, if everyone plays their part by following the rules…
    Then I hope we can steadily move out of lockdown, reopening schools after the February half term and starting, cautiously, to move regions down the tiers.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/prime-ministers-address-to-the-nation-4-january-2021
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    Sandpit said:

    If they are needed they will last til June, time for some to grow up. Personally I expect they will start to be relaxed quite quickly in March but it is largely controlled by the spread of the virus and vaccination rate, not politicians ideological preferences.
    The MPs have a point that such executive powers need to be under regular review though.

    I suspect one of them will propose an amendment saying that the powers should expire at the end of this month, and government will cave. This means that Parliament will have to vote again in three weeks’ time.
    It is clear the practical powers are under constant review, not just the scheduled ones. London's review date was 16 December, when it was left unchanged. However it was reviewed and moved into tier 3 on 14 December and tier 4 on 19 December. Reviews are occurring daily by the looks of it.

    Does parliament need to be involved each time it changes, not really imo. 31 March seems fine even with the expectation it will be a couple of weeks before then.
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    eekeek Posts: 24,983

    I wonder if the GOP would have won if Mitch hadn’t blocked the stimulus cheques?

    Yep - after all Biden made a point of repeating it on Monday.

    But I called it completely correct by the looks of it - Republicans didn't bother to vote (for which blame Trump) and the Democrats did.

    It's also very close as I said it would be so - which was why I didn't bet.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    eek said:

    I wonder if the GOP would have won if Mitch hadn’t blocked the stimulus cheques?

    Yep - after all Biden made a point of repeating it on Monday.

    But I called it completely correct by the looks of it - Republicans didn't bother to vote (for which blame Trump) and the Democrats did.

    It's also very close as I said it would be so - which was why I didn't bet.
    Yeah, despite losing out on more than doubling my money I am glad I exited this market early doors.

    Pollsters have got to feel pretty happy though.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Georgia has certainly changed. I worked in Hawaii with a PA who lived in Georgia. Her sister had married a black Englishman who she told me couldn't visit them because their neighbours wouldn't understand. So she would come to England regularly to visit them. I was quite angry with her being accepting of this so we got off to a bad start. This was 1998. It sounds unbelievable now.

    and look what I just found! (It was an ad for Germany)

    https://www.facebook.com/bjorn.dunkerbeck/videos/242734523266912/
    Nice work if you can get it!

    How is the advertising business at the minute?
    The advertising business is quite strong apparently. The live action commercials business is very weak. Problems with the logistics of shooting travel casting models/actors working together means agencies are looking for creative alternatives to live action shoots.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,686
    edited January 2021
    Gaussian said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    Georgia has certainly changed. I worked in Hawaii with a PA who lived in Georgia. Her sister had married a black Englishman who she told me couldn't visit them because their neighbours wouldn't understand. So she would come to England regularly to visit them. I was quite angry with her being accepting of this so we got off to a bad start. This was 1998. It sounds unbelievable now.

    Look at this electoral change, a bit hard to say GA is blue...

    https://twitter.com/SidKhurana3607/status/1346723445359456258?s=19
    They had double Dem senators as recently as 2001-03.
    It doesn't seem that rural, small town America has done very well under the Republicans, but becomes ever redder. Culture war gets the votes more than the economy.
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    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,897
    Chris said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Let's just hope that once he is out of office the USA will be able to demonstrate another crucial principle - that no one is above the law.
    If once he leaves the Whitehouse Trump is charged, then it is proof that there *is* one person in the USA who is above the law, that person being the President. Remember, he survived an Impeachment (from the House).
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    538 have a nice simple linear regression on their live blog. The more Trump a County was the larger its vote decline yesterday.
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    You know, it could also be that voters in Georgia have rather liked what they have seen and heard from Joe Biden since he won the Presidential election. The Democrats may now have a real opportunity as the GOP is likely to go to war with itself for the next few years.
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    eekeek Posts: 24,983
    That probably helps Harris in the 2024 election - as she will be far better known than most VPs are having to continually settle deadlocks.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,134
    eristdoof said:

    Chris said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Let's just hope that once he is out of office the USA will be able to demonstrate another crucial principle - that no one is above the law.
    If once he leaves the Whitehouse Trump is charged, then it is proof that there *is* one person in the USA who is above the law, that person being the President. Remember, he survived an Impeachment (from the House).
    Don't be a spoilsport. I just want to hear a "guilty" verdict.
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    MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    eek said:

    I wonder if the GOP would have won if Mitch hadn’t blocked the stimulus cheques?



    It's also very close as I said it would be so - which was why I didn't bet.
    Hmmm.

    Sometimes that's what betting entails though. You'll win some, you'll lose some but if the odds are good overall you make.

    I'm very happy that I came in on Jon Ossoff at 3/1 in October, making two such bets (strictly speaking 2/1 boosted) and widely, repeatedly and doubtless irritatingly tipped others on here to follow suit.

    The boy has come good. I'm very pleased for him and for the Democrats.
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    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,122
    The Dems have Stacey Abrams and her sterling efforts to register voters in GA in the face of Republican vote suppression to thank for control of the Senate. Black Votes Matter. A victory to savour.
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    If they are needed they will last til June, time for some to grow up. Personally I expect they will start to be relaxed quite quickly in March but it is largely controlled by the spread of the virus and vaccination rate, not politicians ideological preferences.
    No doubt but MPs may also be concerned that Boris once more has been economical with the actualité.
    And, critically, if everyone plays their part by following the rules…
    Then I hope we can steadily move out of lockdown, reopening schools after the February half term and starting, cautiously, to move regions down the tiers.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/prime-ministers-address-to-the-nation-4-january-2021
    If they didnt want an over promising, under delivering liar for PM they shouldnt have voted him in. They have chosen an optimistic liar for PM, time for them to grow up and deal with it.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,287
    It's not just that you're crooks, Senators. It's that you're losers too.
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    Roger said:

    Georgia has certainly changed. I worked in Hawaii with a PA who lived in Georgia. Her sister had married a black Englishman who she told me couldn't visit them because their neighbours wouldn't understand. So she would come to England regularly to visit them. I was quite angry with her being accepting of this so we got off to a bad start. This was 1998. It sounds unbelievable now.

    Were the neighbours that anti-English? I'd expect that in Dundee and parts of North Wales, but chilling it happens in a civilised place like Georgia too.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,287

    The Dems have Stacey Abrams and her sterling efforts to register voters in GA in the face of Republican vote suppression to thank for control of the Senate. Black Votes Matter. A victory to savour.

    Moreover, what a legacy for Trump. A man so incompetent he couldn't rig a vote properly, so lost it, and in so doing also lost another vote he could and should have won.
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    Chris said:

    eristdoof said:

    Chris said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Let's just hope that once he is out of office the USA will be able to demonstrate another crucial principle - that no one is above the law.
    If once he leaves the Whitehouse Trump is charged, then it is proof that there *is* one person in the USA who is above the law, that person being the President. Remember, he survived an Impeachment (from the House).
    Don't be a spoilsport. I just want to hear a "guilty" verdict.
    He will surely be charged but doubt it will progress as far as a guilty verdict.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,987
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Above, quite. The sooner the imbecile is gone the better.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,287
    Are we quite sure Donald Trump has left the Democrats? I mean, it looks as though he's locked in a Dem hegemony for the foreseeable by making the Republicans totally toxic.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,289

    If they are needed they will last til June, time for some to grow up. Personally I expect they will start to be relaxed quite quickly in March but it is largely controlled by the spread of the virus and vaccination rate, not politicians ideological preferences.
    No doubt but MPs may also be concerned that Boris once more has been economical with the actualité.
    And, critically, if everyone plays their part by following the rules…
    Then I hope we can steadily move out of lockdown, reopening schools after the February half term and starting, cautiously, to move regions down the tiers.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/prime-ministers-address-to-the-nation-4-january-2021
    If they didnt want an over promising, under delivering liar for PM they shouldnt have voted him in. They have chosen an optimistic liar for PM, time for them to grow up and deal with it.
    The remarkable thing is how we can be (almost) confined by law to our homes for up to three whole months and this becomes law before (and without the requirement for) a parliamentary vote.
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    Gaussian said:

    So today Kelly Loefflee, a politician who has clearly lost re-election, gets to vote to overturn another election her party clearly lost over two months ago. The US system is truly bizarre.

    I think the seats are vacant from Jan 3 until the new senators are sworn in.
    No. Perdue was elected to a six year term which has now expired, so his seat is vacant. But Loeffler was appointed to serve until the vacancy is filled, so sits until Warnock is sworn in.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:


    The latest polling suggests the GOP will hold the Georgia Senate seats in the run off and I agree.

    Biden was not elected on the back of a Democratic landslide to sweep the US to the left, he was elected purely to beat Trump and Georgia swing voters having voted Biden to beat the incumbent President will now vote GOP to ensure the woke, far left does not get too much power and the Senate stays GOP.

    Hence Biden will be the first incoming President not to take office with his party in control of both chambers of Congress since Bush Snr in 1989. That would be about right, US voters want him to compromise with the GOP and to reduce the polarisation

    One to remember from PB's right-wing ramper polling sage....
    I'm still waiting for Trump's pivot to the centre.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    You know, it could also be that voters in Georgia have rather liked what they have seen and heard from Joe Biden since he won the Presidential election. The Democrats may now have a real opportunity as the GOP is likely to go to war with itself for the next few years.

    A commentator on CNN - a democrat - said it would be still very difficult to get the more extreme agenda of the left-wing of the Democratic party through the Senate as they would need a 60/40 majority. I think thar is a useful tool for Biden to plot a centrist course.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,289
    edited January 2021
    Lol - Zahawi on R4 refusing to "bandy about numbers on the hoof" in relation to future vaccinations.

    A bit late for that, methinks.

    Edit/ tbf he did go on to recommit to the PM's mid-Feb target
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Roger said:

    Georgia has certainly changed. I worked in Hawaii with a PA who lived in Georgia. Her sister had married a black Englishman who she told me couldn't visit them because their neighbours wouldn't understand. So she would come to England regularly to visit them. I was quite angry with her being accepting of this so we got off to a bad start. This was 1998. It sounds unbelievable now.

    Were the neighbours that anti-English? I'd expect that in Dundee and parts of North Wales, but chilling it happens in a civilised place like Georgia too.
    It wasn't his Englishness! I'm sure you were joking but as a matter of interest the English were were very popular at the time. Someone on the crew was posing as being English and I was asked to confirm whether he was or not. Apparently an English accent was a very stylish thing to have at the time and it wasn't uncommon for people to assume one. His wasn't even a particularly good one but he had them fooled
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    Nigelb said:

    Barnesian said:

    I'm waiting to go to bed. I'm on my second large Talisker. But it's not yet a done deal for the Democrats. Nearly there I think.

    Ted Heath’s preferred tipple.
    Not "Yo ho ho and a bottle of rum"? Heath continues to disappoint.
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    MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    HYUFD said:



    The latest polling suggests the GOP will hold the Georgia Senate seats in the run off and I agree.

    Biden was not elected on the back of a Democratic landslide to sweep the US to the left, he was elected purely to beat Trump and Georgia swing voters having voted Biden to beat the incumbent President will now vote GOP to ensure the woke, far left does not get too much power and the Senate stays GOP.

    Hence Biden will be the first incoming President not to take office with his party in control of both chambers of Congress since Bush Snr in 1989. That would be about right, US voters want him to compromise with the GOP and to reduce the polarisation

    Lol

    Given that HYUFD is repeatedly revisionist about his predictions this is a useful reminder of how wrong he has been on almost everything to do with United States politics this past year.
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    GaussianGaussian Posts: 793

    Gaussian said:

    So today Kelly Loefflee, a politician who has clearly lost re-election, gets to vote to overturn another election her party clearly lost over two months ago. The US system is truly bizarre.

    I think the seats are vacant from Jan 3 until the new senators are sworn in.
    No. Perdue was elected to a six year term which has now expired, so his seat is vacant. But Loeffler was appointed to serve until the vacancy is filled, so sits until Warnock is sworn in.
    Thanks. Bizarre indeed then.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,436
    felix said:

    You know, it could also be that voters in Georgia have rather liked what they have seen and heard from Joe Biden since he won the Presidential election. The Democrats may now have a real opportunity as the GOP is likely to go to war with itself for the next few years.

    A commentator on CNN - a democrat - said it would be still very difficult to get the more extreme agenda of the left-wing of the Democratic party through the Senate as they would need a 60/40 majority. I think thar is a useful tool for Biden to plot a centrist course.
    An agenda so extreme, that approaches the middle of the UK Conservative party. From the right.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:


    The latest polling suggests the GOP will hold the Georgia Senate seats in the run off and I agree.

    Biden was not elected on the back of a Democratic landslide to sweep the US to the left, he was elected purely to beat Trump and Georgia swing voters having voted Biden to beat the incumbent President will now vote GOP to ensure the woke, far left does not get too much power and the Senate stays GOP.

    Hence Biden will be the first incoming President not to take office with his party in control of both chambers of Congress since Bush Snr in 1989. That would be about right, US voters want him to compromise with the GOP and to reduce the polarisation

    One to remember from PB's right-wing ramper polling sage....
    Certainly a keeper but in fairness he's never afraid to nail his whatever to the mast
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    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,259
    edited January 2021
    eek said:

    I wonder if the GOP would have won if Mitch hadn’t blocked the stimulus cheques?

    Yep - after all Biden made a point of repeating it on Monday.

    But I called it completely correct by the looks of it - Republicans didn't bother to vote (for which blame Trump) and the Democrats did.

    It's also very close as I said it would be so - which was why I didn't bet.
    That does slightly cut both ways with Trump. He's not wrong to say Republicans do worse when he's not on the ballot. Same applied in 2018, where toddler tantrums over election fraud weren't an issue. As he says, "Ratings, dear boy, RATINGS" (or words to that effect).

    He can also say "told you so" on $2000. And with some force.

    I do agree that the GOP need to unhitch their wagon from the Trump train, but he does deliver in the sense Republicans do better when he's on the ballot (which clearly he can't be for all elections).
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    IanB2 said:

    If they are needed they will last til June, time for some to grow up. Personally I expect they will start to be relaxed quite quickly in March but it is largely controlled by the spread of the virus and vaccination rate, not politicians ideological preferences.
    No doubt but MPs may also be concerned that Boris once more has been economical with the actualité.
    And, critically, if everyone plays their part by following the rules…
    Then I hope we can steadily move out of lockdown, reopening schools after the February half term and starting, cautiously, to move regions down the tiers.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/prime-ministers-address-to-the-nation-4-january-2021
    If they didnt want an over promising, under delivering liar for PM they shouldnt have voted him in. They have chosen an optimistic liar for PM, time for them to grow up and deal with it.
    The remarkable thing is how we can be (almost) confined by law to our homes for up to three whole months and this becomes law before (and without the requirement for) a parliamentary vote.
    It is also just more law that will be almost never enforced and is not even intended to be widely enforced, we certainly dont have the court capacity to do so. Our system is quite curious but seems to just about work.
This discussion has been closed.