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Sturgeon blocks Trump’s reported plan to be in Scotland on Inauguration Day – politicalbetting.com

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  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    Warnock looking good.

    Ossoff much closer but still slight favorite
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,503
    Quirk of the NYT updates - they sometimes show Republicans doing better than expected but the Democrat predicted lead (not just the win probability) increasing. Why?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    Quirk of the NYT updates - they sometimes show Republicans doing better than expected but the Democrat predicted lead (not just the win probability) increasing. Why?

    Don't quote me on this, but my guess is that the GOP is overperforming compared to a 50:50 baseline but behind the 'new baseline' set by the Dems overperforming on earlier ballots. Essentially, the goalposts move as the Dems overperform but the model expectations don't show that.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    edited January 2021

    Quirk of the NYT updates - they sometimes show Republicans doing better than expected but the Democrat predicted lead (not just the win probability) increasing. Why?

    I think they have the heading the wrong way round. It seems to be a consistent pattern.
    EDIT: I take that back on latest Warnock move. I don't know what is going on in their model.
    EDIT: I think Quincel has got it.
  • SagandSagand Posts: 38
    Looking just at the 'Shift from Nov.' tab (only shows for counties that are have/nearly finished voting) the shift looks big enough for both Democrats unless there is a shift towards Republicans in the Urban/Suburban areas compared to November.
  • Quirk of the NYT updates - they sometimes show Republicans doing better than expected but the Democrat predicted lead (not just the win probability) increasing. Why?

    Because Dem predicted lead would have increased even more IF the GOP was NOT doing a bit better than expected?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,503
    Ah well, work tomorrow, so calling it a night - looks as though the Democrats have done it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,891
    Loeffler's goose looks cooked to me
    Perdue/Ossoff looks very tight indeed
  • Sagand said:

    Looking just at the 'Shift from Nov.' tab (only shows for counties that are have/nearly finished voting) the shift looks big enough for both Democrats unless there is a shift towards Republicans in the Urban/Suburban areas compared to November.

    THAT is the $64 question tonight - wither the burbs?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    I think Warnock will shortly move from "tilting" to "leaning".
    Betfair now at 1.33 for Democrats to win both seats.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    I reckon Warnock wins by 40k +

    Ossoff wins by less than 20k but more than 10k
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Quincel said:

    Quirk of the NYT updates - they sometimes show Republicans doing better than expected but the Democrat predicted lead (not just the win probability) increasing. Why?

    Don't quote me on this, but my guess is that the GOP is overperforming compared to a 50:50 baseline but behind the 'new baseline' set by the Dems overperforming on earlier ballots. Essentially, the goalposts move as the Dems overperform but the model expectations don't show that.
    Just re-read this and I'm really unclear. What I mean is:

    "Well done GOP, you won those election day ballots by 22% and we only expected you to win them by 20%. But...the Dems won a load of mail ballots by 45% when we only expected a 40% win, so you actually had to win those election day ballots by 23% to keep up."
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    The question isn't 'What will Alex Jones say?', but 'Who will keep listening?'. Very likely that world continues whipping up the supporters, but I expect at least some level of decline in attention. The mainstream media won't cover them as much, which will make them less relevant and prominent.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,891
    Perdue is going to feel a bit aggrieved seeing as in any other state (I think !) he'd have been elected on the night :p.
    He might still do it, looks like a good amount of split ticketing in his favour (~1 in 180 voters isn't bad for such an invariant electorate)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,271
    55% in

    Ossoff 51.3%
    Perdue 48.7%

    Warnock 51.8%
    Loeffler 48.2%
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,923
    HYUFD said:

    NYT is reporting that in Fulton Co (Atlanta) 82% of "estimated votes" is reported. Do NOT think this included absentees, but don't really know. It IS a much higher % than statewide which is at 41% of estimated

    Ossoff currently has 272,151 votes in from Fulton County which includes Atlanta, Biden got 381,144 votes from Fulton in November so it seems most of the Atlanta votes are now in
    Don't forget DeKalb, which has sightly fewer votes, but was more heavily Democratic.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    60% in

    Perdue now within 20,000.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,271
    59% in

    Ossoff 50.4%
    Perdue 49.6%

    Warnock 50.6%
    Loeffler 49.4%
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    edited January 2021
    justin124 said:

    60% in

    Perdue now within 20,000.

    Perdue ahead
    EDIT: Ossoff back in the lead
    This is close!

  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Perdue now ahead with 61% in.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,891
    Trump might get dropped like a rock if there's a double loss for the GOP here.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Pulpstar said:

    Perdue is going to feel a bit aggrieved seeing as in any other state (I think !) he'd have been elected on the night :p.
    He might still do it, looks like a good amount of split ticketing in his favour (~1 in 180 voters isn't bad for such an invariant electorate)

    Several other states have a similar rule, or (California and Louisiana) “jungle” primaries where all candidates for all parties run en masse in a primary with the top two only going to the general election. Maine has AV (called “ranked choice” or “instant runoff” voting here) and I think some other states may be adopting it.
  • More and more of the rural counties are reporting, and more a finishing up (poll votes anyway).

    But suburban counties around Atlanta still lagging. Could be that plenty of their precincts had long lines at 7pm which slows the count.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,891
    rpjs said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Perdue is going to feel a bit aggrieved seeing as in any other state (I think !) he'd have been elected on the night :p.
    He might still do it, looks like a good amount of split ticketing in his favour (~1 in 180 voters isn't bad for such an invariant electorate)

    Several other states have a similar rule, or (California and Louisiana) “jungle” primaries where all candidates for all parties run en masse in a primary with the top two only going to the general election. Maine has AV (called “ranked choice” or “instant runoff” voting here) and I think some other states may be adopting it.
    Sure, but Purdue would likely have won without the libertarian candidate - he just didn't quite clear 50%.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    NYT moving towards Dems:

    Warnock +1.4
    Ossoff +0.7
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,891
    You'd have thought overseas & military would slightly favour the Dems ?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    Now goes:

    +1.4
    +0.9
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    Warnock is now leaning rather than tilting. Just moved to 71% chance up from 63% not long ago.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Pulpstar said:

    You'd have thought overseas & military would slightly favour the Dems ?

    Overseas non-military, yes, but I think usually a lot of overseas votes are military. That’s a bit more nuanced: military people obviously trend conservative overall but Trump has not exactly endeared himself to them and I doubt his posturing since November has boosted the military vote for the Republicans any.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,271
    edited January 2021
    65% in

    Perdue 50.3%
    Ossoff 49.7%

    Warnock 50.3%
    Loeffler 49.7%
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,923
    What this election has told me is that if Trump had thrown his weight behind Perdue and Loeffler, they would probably have both won.

    That is going to be a source of massive friction in the Republican Party.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,271
    rcs1000 said:

    What this election has told me is that if Trump had thrown his weight behind Perdue and Loeffler, they would probably have both won.

    That is going to be a source of massive friction in the Republican Party.

    He held a rally for them last night
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,891
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    What this election has told me is that if Trump had thrown his weight behind Perdue and Loeffler, they would probably have both won.

    That is going to be a source of massive friction in the Republican Party.

    He held a rally for them last night
    Where he talked about himself lol
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,923
    With most of DeKalb - the second biggest source of Dem votes after Fulton - still to come, I suspect that the NYT needle is about right.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,406
    rcs1000 said:

    With most of DeKalb - the second biggest source of Dem votes after Fulton - still to come, I suspect that the NYT needle is about right.

    Nate Cohn has just tweeted that he reckons the needle is understating the Dems chances by quite a bit.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,406
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    What this election has told me is that if Trump had thrown his weight behind Perdue and Loeffler, they would probably have both won.

    That is going to be a source of massive friction in the Republican Party.

    He held a rally for them last night
    For himself, not Perdue and Loeffler. And his conduct in the last few months won’t have swung any voters to the GOP.
  • Still waiting for most of:

    Cobb, Gwinnett, DeKalb, Chatham, Muscogee.

    All Dem areas - not much left for the GOP to come in.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,271
    68% in

    Perdue 50.5%
    Ossoff 49.5%

    Warnock 50%
    Loeffler 50%
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    If this holds, Dems will be thinking what might have been:

    If RBG had lived another few months + a Breyer retirement and at a minimum Roberts would have had casting vote for next decade.

    But presumably Breyer retirement still likely.
  • It will shortly be an hour since the last recorded batch of votes which was more favourable to the republicans than forecast based on location and method of vote.

    Of the last 16 batches, representing over a million votes, 14 were better for the Democrats, and two were bang on. Feels like that needs to turn around fast if they are to save one, let alone two, seats.

    That said, the NYT forecasts for ballots remaining differ markedly from the votes counted so far.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,854
    edited January 2021

    It will shortly be an hour since the last recorded batch of votes which was more favourable to the republicans than forecast based on location and method of vote.

    Of the last 16 batches, representing over a million votes, 14 were better for the Democrats, and two were bang on. Feels like that needs to turn around fast if they are to save one, let alone two, seats.

    That said, the NYT forecasts for ballots remaining differ markedly from the votes counted so far.

    Reports seem to be turnout down in the Red leaning counties, whereas Atlanta and Dem leaning suburbs has held up.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    I'm waiting to go to bed. I'm on my second large Talisker. But it's not yet a done deal for the Democrats. Nearly there I think.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    Now goes Ossoff +1.0
    Warnock +1.7
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,271
    70% in

    Perdue 50.6%
    Ossoff 49.4%

    Loeffler 50.2%
    Warnock 49.8%
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,891
    HYUFD said:

    70% in

    Perdue 50.6%
    Ossoff 49.4%

    Loeffler 50.2%
    Warnock 49.8%

    With tonnes of Dekalb left. Warnock is in a very strong position indeed.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,406
    If the NYTimes projections are correct then the polling in GA will once again have been extremely accurate
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,271
    75% in

    Perdue 50.1%
    Ossoff 49.9%

    Warnock 50.3%
    Loeffler 49.7%
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,271
    77% in

    Perdue 50.8%
    Ossoff 49.2%

    Loeffler 50.4%
    Warnock 49.6%
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    edited January 2021
    So we are just waiting for the DeKalb early vote of 170,000 which should be about 85/15 Dem/Rep. That would be decisive.

    I think I'll wait up for that, but it means a third Talisker and a thick head.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    Warnock 1.05
    Ossoff 1.08
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,824
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,166
    edited January 2021
    RobD said:
    Get rid of them altogether, regardless of who or what is being posted. Paternalistic nonsense that's reminiscent of the Catholic Church in the Middle Ages.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,406
    Andy_JS said:

    RobD said:
    Get rid of them altogether, regardless of who or what is being posted. Paternalistic nonsense that's reminiscent of the Catholic Church in the Middle Ages.
    The problem is that lies spread far more quickly than the truth, which Trump has exploited
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,166

    Andy_JS said:

    RobD said:
    Get rid of them altogether, regardless of who or what is being posted. Paternalistic nonsense that's reminiscent of the Catholic Church in the Middle Ages.
    The problem is that lies spread far more quickly than the truth, which Trump has exploited
    We have to trust people to have common sense in judging what is true or not, not treat them like little children who constantly need guidance.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,406
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    RobD said:
    Get rid of them altogether, regardless of who or what is being posted. Paternalistic nonsense that's reminiscent of the Catholic Church in the Middle Ages.
    The problem is that lies spread far more quickly than the truth, which Trump has exploited
    We have to trust people to have common sense in judging what is true or not, not treat them like little children who constantly need guidance.
    Sadly we can’t trust them, as the large numbers voting for Trump show
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,406
    As well as the political implications, a bit worrying for the “delay the 2nd shot” strategy...

    https://twitter.com/repkevinbrady/status/1346655894759682054?s=21
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,824
    edited January 2021

    As well as the political implications, a bit worrying for the “delay the 2nd shot” strategy...

    https://twitter.com/repkevinbrady/status/1346655894759682054?s=21

    But the vaccine is not 100% effective. 1 in 20 won't be immune (or 20 congresspersons)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,166
    Would there be warnings on Twitter if Brexit and Trump hadn't happened? Probably not.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    RobD said:

    As well as the political implications, a bit worrying for the “delay the 2nd shot” strategy...

    https://twitter.com/repkevinbrady/status/1346655894759682054?s=21

    But the vaccine is not 100% effective. 1 in 20 won't be immune (or 20 congresspersons)
    1 in 20 won't be immune but they won't die according to the trials.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    1.07 on Betfair that Democrats take both seats. I think I'll go to bed.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,824
    Barnesian said:

    RobD said:

    As well as the political implications, a bit worrying for the “delay the 2nd shot” strategy...

    https://twitter.com/repkevinbrady/status/1346655894759682054?s=21

    But the vaccine is not 100% effective. 1 in 20 won't be immune (or 20 congresspersons)
    1 in 20 won't be immune but they won't die according to the trials.
    Yeah, but I don't think he's dead.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    CNN reporter saying fewer votes to come from Dekalb than previously thought.

    Unclear whether correct but if so, bad news for Dems.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,271
    Georgia 88% in

    Purdue 51.5%
    Ossoff 48.5%

    Loeffler 51.1%
    Warnock 48.9%
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,271
    edited January 2021
    MikeL said:

    CNN reporter saying fewer votes to come from Dekalb than previously thought.

    Unclear whether correct but if so, bad news for Dems.

    Yup, Perdue could still win

    https://twitter.com/FridaGhitis/status/1346663385941860352?s=20

    https://twitter.com/simon_schama/status/1346664061229027328?s=20
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,706
    edited January 2021
    On topic, it's really irresponsible for US allies who could be keeping Trump busy and entertained at any point until the formal transfer off power to not be doing that. The Americans fought in two world wars to keep Europe safe, I really don't think a couple of days of red-carpet baby-sitting is too much to ask.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    NYT says over 200k votes to come in Dekalb.

    CNN reporter last said 130,000. Previous report was 170,000.

    If it's 130,000 then Dems may be in trouble.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,166
    "How Big Tech is policing the pandemic
    Covid has escalated Silicon Valley's restrictions on speech
    BY ANDREW DOYLE"

    https://unherd.com/2021/01/how-big-tech-is-policing-the-pandemic/
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    Update:

    Confirmed 171,000 to come in Dekalb.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    Dekalb has another 12,000 election day votes to come.

    ie Dekalb 183,000 total to come.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,271
    96% in from Georgia (DeKalb now 93% in)

    Perdue 50.2%
    Ossoff 49.8%

    Warnock 50.2%
    Loeffler 49.8%

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    edited January 2021
    Dekalb vote dump of 170k in.

    Another 18,000 still to come in Dekalb.

    So NYT was correct all along.

    Currently:

    Warnock +26,000
    Purdue + 9,000

    Looks comfortable for Warnock and OK for Ossoff.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,166
    MikeL said:

    Dekalb vote dump of 170k in.

    Another 18,000 still to come in Dekalb.

    So NYT was correct all along.

    Currently:

    Warnock +20,000
    Purdue + 15,000

    Looks OK for Ossoff.

    The Perdue/Ossoff race still looks like it might be very close.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    NYT thinks Warnock wins by 80,000 and Ossoff by 40,000.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,271
    Georgia 97% in

    Perdue 50%
    Ossoff 50% (Perdue 456 ahead)

    Warnock 50.4%
    Loeffler 49.6%
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    edited January 2021
    Georgia Sec of State:

    Approx 200,000 votes still to come statewide.
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    My numbers are Warnock +75K and Ossoff + 35K ..

    A little lower than I thought but 2 pickups for the DEMS.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    NYT thinks:

    Warnock +87,000 (1.9% * 4.6m)
    Ossoff + 51,000 (1.1% * 4.6m)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    Morning all. Looking rather close in Georgia as expected.

    Are we going to see them count 90% of the votes overnight, then have to wait weeks as the final few trickle in?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    97% now counted.

    Overseas / military ballots can arrive until Friday - so no final result until after that.

    But it looks very comfortable for Warnock and Ossoff.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    dixiedean said:

    Good grief.
    At least he's out of our hands now. Bit of a dangerous Socialist for Mississippi?
    It is news to me that Mississippi is thinking of leaving the US?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    kle4 said:

    Maybe the real vaccination race is for the first company to get approval who can also actually produce their thing in extremely large numbers extremely quickly.

    The government has been boasting about having millions ready to go for weeks. Now it emerges that it is short.

    Pathetic.
    Not receiving delivery is one thing that cannot be laid at their door, surely?
    I tried to have that conversation with Anabobazina a day or two ago. Save your breath. They are just posting the same complaints over and over now.

    --AS
    Except the government have allowed the impression to develop that they're done a brilliant shopping job and the UK is going to knock Brer Virus out of the park in time for us to all go and enjoy the Boat Race.

    Meanwhile, our foolish neighbours will look on sadly and unvaccinated.

    It was always going to be more complicated than that, but the impression has been allowed to develop.

    So if it doesn't happen, the government is back in "Live by the sword, die by the sword" territory
    Yes, I agree that the government has got the messaging wrong. Consistently so (except perhaps on testing there they were ridiculed for over-promising and actually pretty much got there).

    I can't really understand why they keep making that mistake. It's clearly bad politics and bad tactics, but they keep falling into the same trap over and trap. It's pretty tragic really.

    --AS
    But saying stuff like this is what Boris always does. It's up there with "Of course I'll respect you in the morning."

    It's brilliant until the victims realise they've been taken for a ride. And he'll keep doing it for as long as he isn't punished for it.
    What I find odd is that it's only brilliant in the short term. Long term it's clearly bad strategy: I think the public know they've been conned and trust less because of it. My mother, for example, is not interested in politics but she twigged to this modus operandi ages ago.

    I was trying to figure this out. Either it's just because they think he can get away with it, that the public won't remember the broken promises. Or (and I find this possibility much more frightening) that those high up in government simply cannot accept the situation and are in denial about it because it's too painful to them, with nobody strong enough to stand up and force them to confront reality. It makes me realize that I'd preferred to be lied to by a devious government than to have a delusional one tell me honestly what they think...

    --AS
    Being lied to by a delusional government is worst of all, sadly.
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    edited January 2021
    Cook Report calls the races for both Warnock and Ossoff.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    edited January 2021
    CNN - Votes are still coming in from largely Democratic counties, Georgia election official says

    Gabriel Sterling, the voting systems implementation manager, just delivered what he said would be the final briefing from the Georgia secretary of state’s office for the night.

    Sterling said overall, it looks like they have about 27,600 or so advance votes to come in. About 19,000 will come in from DeKalb County and about 7,000 from Coffee County. He added that there will be a hodgepodge of other votes in other locations.

    “In terms of the amount of votes that are potentially out there are coming from largely Democratic counties, there are some Republican counties – Floyd, Forsyth, Appling – but they are smaller in comparison to DeKalb's, Gwinnett's, Cobb's and Fulton's,” Sterling said. “That tells you that the outstanding will likely be leaning Democrat at best.”
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    On topic, LOL at Nippy. Are airports and borders reserved issues, as she claimed on Monday, or devolved issues, as she claims on Tuesday? She can’t have it both ways.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    JACK_W said:

    Cook Report calls the races for both Warnock and Ossoff.

    That's my reading of this too. Warnock pretty certain. Ossoff looking likely.
This discussion has been closed.