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Sturgeon blocks Trump’s reported plan to be in Scotland on Inauguration Day – politicalbetting.com

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  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,598
    edited January 2021
    isam said:

    Chameleon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Bit of a stupid post as for some demographic groups there are many killer beans and for other demographic groups statistically zero.
    So, here's a bag of jelly beans. If you have one, your granny has to have one too. And it has a one-in-ten chance of killing her.

    Would you like the jelly bean?

    Better?
    To be fair that assumes contact.

    Not enough people on here, or indeed in general, have recognised the sacrifices made by the young (who will also be paying for all this).

    At worst my jelly bean tub has 10,000 jelly beans, of which 1 is bad, whereas I've lost 1.25% of my life, same maths goes for vast swathes of the population.
    And if you say no to the jellybean, you have to stay indoors for a year while the
    country goes skint
    The problem is not the 1:10,000, it is the 10:10,000 (or higher) that make you sick enough to need hospital. If everyone decides to risk a jelly bean at the same time then there might be no space for you. Unlucky!

    If it was just death or nothing then there would definitely have been more eating than refusing.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    MikeL said:

    John King underway - first 700 votes in!

    https://twitter.com/PipsFunFacts/status/1346610132877271048
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    edited January 2021
    Nigelb said:

    dixiedean said:

    Alistair said:

    What a scene, what tension, what build up.

    https://youtu.be/eRJ539f5Ugc

    Famously borrowed from Battleship Potemkin
    There's a similar homage in Brazil. Involving a vacuum cleaner. Which also has DeNiro starring.
    His finest role.
    I’m not a fan , but he was great in that. An extended cameo, rather than starring, which is probably why I liked it.
    Yes. Michael Palin stars. Now there IS an underrated actor.
    If only he'd been Molotov or in GBH earlier. He'd be a highly respected thespian and knight of the realm.
    He could have done the fish slapping dance and a trip round the world to sing the lumberjack song with a previously undiscovered Amazon tribe, as some meta performance art in his dotage.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    rcs1000 said:
    Not now both 11% behind
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    Is Fulton County gerrymandered? It's such a weird shape.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,926
    isam said:

    Chameleon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Bit of a stupid post as for some demographic groups there are many killer beans and for other demographic groups statistically zero.
    So, here's a bag of jelly beans. If you have one, your granny has to have one too. And it has a one-in-ten chance of killing her.

    Would you like the jelly bean?

    Better?
    To be fair that assumes contact.

    Not enough people on here, or indeed in general, have recognised the sacrifices made by the young (who will also be paying for all this).

    At worst my jelly bean tub has 10,000 jelly beans, of which 1 is bad, whereas I've lost 1.25% of my life, same maths goes for vast swathes of the population.
    And if you say no to the jellybean, you have to stay indoors for a year while the
    country goes skint
    That would be an excellent argument if places with no (or minimal) controls did better economically.

    Places without controls end up either locking down anyway (see Sweden) or having de facto lockdowns as cases spiral out of control (Arizona in the summer, the Dakotas in December).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    dixiedean said:

    Nigelb said:

    dixiedean said:

    Alistair said:

    What a scene, what tension, what build up.

    https://youtu.be/eRJ539f5Ugc

    Famously borrowed from Battleship Potemkin
    There's a similar homage in Brazil. Involving a vacuum cleaner. Which also has DeNiro starring.
    His finest role.
    I’m not a fan , but he was great in that. An extended cameo, rather than starring, which is probably why I liked it.
    Yes. Michael Palin stars. Now there IS an underrated actor.
    If only he'd been Molotov earlier.
    He could have done the fish slapping dance and a trip round the world to sing the lumberjack song with a previously undiscovered Amazon tribe, as some meta performance art in his dotage.
    And Jonathan Pryce, of course.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    I can’t get my head around the kind of thinking behind this.
    https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1346525695879614467
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276
    edited January 2021
    Georgia Senate, polls now closed and 1% of the vote in

    Perdue 69%
    Ossoff 30%

    Special election

    Loeffler 55%
    Warnock 45%

    https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/georgia/senate-runoff-map-perdue-ossoff-20210105/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,926
    Purdue now +40%!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,825

    RobD said:

    guybrush said:

    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    Maybe the real vaccination race is for the first company to get approval who can also actually produce their thing in extremely large numbers extremely quickly.

    The government has been boasting about having millions ready to go for weeks. Now it emerges that it is short.

    Pathetic.
    Not receiving delivery is one thing that cannot be laid at their door, surely?
    Sure it can. They are project managing it, they need be on top of it. It’s AZ’s failure, but the government cannot be held blameless.
    No, the issue is that the government doesn't have the bandwidth to test the batches quickly. AZ have said that 4m doses are currently produced which means 3.5m are awaiting approval. That process needs to be scaled up by the MHRA so it can approve many more batches at the same time. That seems to be the supply related bottleneck, but I think the government is already ramping this part up.
    That's the way things should be with project management. If it goes wrong on your watch, you're accountable, no excuses please.

    Do you have a reference for the testing thing. Doesn't say a lot for AZ's quality control that the government is testing every batch, or is that the normal approach with vaccines?
    As I understand it the vaccines have to sit on a shelf for three week to ensure they are sterile.
    Is the sterility testing that

    a) The batch has enough preservatives to have killed everything bad
    or
    b) The batch was not contaminated during manufacture

    If b) surely they could sample a batch to check for fungus or bacteria DNA?


    Or is it every single dose that has to be checked?
    Going off my own personal experience in biopharm manufacturing, they will take a sample from every batch and wait for any bugs to grow. However of course you can't use any of the doses from that batch until you have waited the required time to see if the sample grows everything.
    I think that's right, and that means the main limiting factor is time. The stuff is just sitting there waiting to be used.
  • rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Maybe the real vaccination race is for the first company to get approval who can also actually produce their thing in extremely large numbers extremely quickly.

    The government has been boasting about having millions ready to go for weeks. Now it emerges that it is short.

    Pathetic.
    Not receiving delivery is one thing that cannot be laid at their door, surely?
    I tried to have that conversation with Anabobazina a day or two ago. Save your breath. They are just posting the same complaints over and over now.

    --AS
    Except the government have allowed the impression to develop that they're done a brilliant shopping job and the UK is going to knock Brer Virus out of the park in time for us to all go and enjoy the Boat Race.

    Meanwhile, our foolish neighbours will look on sadly and unvaccinated.

    It was always going to be more complicated than that, but the impression has been allowed to develop.

    So if it doesn't happen, the government is back in "Live by the sword, die by the sword" territory
    Yes, I agree that the government has got the messaging wrong. Consistently so (except perhaps on testing there they were ridiculed for over-promising and actually pretty much got there).

    I can't really understand why they keep making that mistake. It's clearly bad politics and bad tactics, but they keep falling into the same trap over and trap. It's pretty tragic really.

    --AS
    The problem is that no ramp up of anything, ever is without problems and hiccups

    You target 10,000. On the first day, you manage 600 because of a whole bunch of sanfus.

    Everyone thinks you are totally useless.

    On day two, you manage 1,100. Still massively less than the target.

    But you get better every single day. Problems are identified and solved. People are hired. People get better at their jobs. Processes are put in place.

    This is the story of every ramp up ever (see Tesla's "production hell" with the Model 3).

    The UK is now on a curve. There will be more vaccines, from more manufacturers, arriving every day. Remember: every day will be better than the last.
    Sure, that's understood. I've been in much the same position myself with a paper to write to a deadline and hundreds of thousands of hours of computation to run before it can be submitted! Question is whether the government mucked up the comms, especially if the bottleneck is out of their control.

    I'm a little skeptical of the additional manufacturers coming online soon: nobody seems to be saying when J&J could deliver doses, other than "mid 2021". I think I saw "H2 2021" for Novavax but might be misremembering. Modern is only a small order.

    --AS
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080
    edited January 2021

    Is Fulton County gerrymandered? It's such a weird shape.

    According to Wikipedia, it's a rare result (in US administration terms) of an evolutionary development, rather than being created that way from the beginning.

    "At the beginning of 1932, as an austerity measure to save money during the Great Depression, Fulton County annexed Milton County to the north and Campbell County to the southwest, to centralize administration. That resulted in the current long shape of the county along 80 miles (130 km) of the Chattahoochee River. On May 9 of that year, neighboring Cobb County ceded the city of Roswell and lands lying east of Willeo Creek to Fulton County so that it would be more contiguous with the lands ceded from Milton County."
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276
    edited January 2021
    CBS reports 39% of voters were Republicans and 36% of voters were Democrats based on the exit poll
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342

    Is Fulton County gerrymandered? It's such a weird shape.

    Can you gerrymander a county?
    Happens all the time over here.
    But seldom over there.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,926
    edited January 2021
    Webster County is now 98% counted. And there's good news for the Republicans there - Perdue's margin is up four points on November!

    Disclaimer: it's a tiny, rural county.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276
    edited January 2021
    62% of voters were white, 29% of voters were black
    https://www.cbsnews.com/live/
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,825
    dixiedean said:

    Is Fulton County gerrymandered? It's such a weird shape.

    Can you gerrymander a county?
    Happens all the time over here.
    But seldom over there.
    Counties in the UK are gerrymandered?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,926
    These elections are SWINGING!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,926
    HYUFD said:

    Georgia Senate, polls now closed and 1% of the vote in

    Perdue 69%
    Ossoff 30%

    Special election

    Loeffler 55%
    Warnock 45%

    https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/georgia/senate-runoff-map-perdue-ossoff-20210105/

    It's now the other way around as a big dump from Fulton came in :-)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276
    edited January 2021
    71% of white voters went for Perdue, 29% for Ossoff based on the CBS exit poll.

    Perdue won 54% of men, Ossoff won 54% of women
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,598

    RobD said:

    guybrush said:

    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    Maybe the real vaccination race is for the first company to get approval who can also actually produce their thing in extremely large numbers extremely quickly.

    The government has been boasting about having millions ready to go for weeks. Now it emerges that it is short.

    Pathetic.
    Not receiving delivery is one thing that cannot be laid at their door, surely?
    Sure it can. They are project managing it, they need be on top of it. It’s AZ’s failure, but the government cannot be held blameless.
    No, the issue is that the government doesn't have the bandwidth to test the batches quickly. AZ have said that 4m doses are currently produced which means 3.5m are awaiting approval. That process needs to be scaled up by the MHRA so it can approve many more batches at the same time. That seems to be the supply related bottleneck, but I think the government is already ramping this part up.
    That's the way things should be with project management. If it goes wrong on your watch, you're accountable, no excuses please.

    Do you have a reference for the testing thing. Doesn't say a lot for AZ's quality control that the government is testing every batch, or is that the normal approach with vaccines?
    As I understand it the vaccines have to sit on a shelf for three week to ensure they are sterile.
    Is the sterility testing that

    a) The batch has enough preservatives to have killed everything bad
    or
    b) The batch was not contaminated during manufacture

    If b) surely they could sample a batch to check for fungus or bacteria DNA?


    Or is it every single dose that has to be checked?
    Going off my own personal experience in biopharm manufacturing, they will take a sample from every batch and wait for any bugs to grow. However of course you can't use any of the doses from that batch until you have waited the required time to see if the sample grows everything.
    OK, so it will just be a sample. So in theory it could be checked for DNA but I've no idea how accurate that would be. Too sensitive, perhaps?

    Maybe nobody has ever bothered to work out how to speed up the process because it has never been that critical. In normal circumstances sitting and watching it is pretty foolproof.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    rcs1000 said:

    Webster County is now 98% counted. And there's good news for the Republicans there - Perdue's margin is up four points on November!

    Disclaimer: it's a tiny, rural county.

    Turnout down circa 10% though. Dunno what that means.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Is Fulton County gerrymandered? It's such a weird shape.

    Can you gerrymander a county?
    Happens all the time over here.
    But seldom over there.
    Counties in the UK are gerrymandered?
    They've been regularly altered for partisan political advantage since the 70's, yes.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,410
    CNN exit poll looks very good for the GOP
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,825
    dixiedean said:

    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Is Fulton County gerrymandered? It's such a weird shape.

    Can you gerrymander a county?
    Happens all the time over here.
    But seldom over there.
    Counties in the UK are gerrymandered?
    They've been regularly altered for partisan political advantage since the 70's, yes.
    I guess I'm thinking of ceremonial counties and not local authority areas.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    The NYT needles put this on a knife edge, as predicted.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,825
    NY Times has the needles again.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,926
    I literally have no idea (yet) who will win in Georgia
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Georgia Senate, polls now closed and 1% of the vote in

    Perdue 69%
    Ossoff 30%

    Special election

    Loeffler 55%
    Warnock 45%

    https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/georgia/senate-runoff-map-perdue-ossoff-20210105/

    It's now the other way around as a big dump from Fulton came in :-)
    Yes with 6% in now Warnock 64% Loeffler 35%
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,503
    The NYT tracker predicts exact balance after 6%...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,926
    edited January 2021
    My gut is that these numbers look pretty good for the Dems. While Fulton is 22% in - and is a Dem stronghold - you've hardly seen any absentee ballots counted yet, and despite that Warnock and Ossoff seem to be doing pretty well.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Is Fulton County gerrymandered? It's such a weird shape.

    Can you gerrymander a county?
    Happens all the time over here.
    But seldom over there.
    Counties in the UK are gerrymandered?
    They've been regularly altered for partisan political advantage since the 70's, yes.
    I guess I'm thinking of ceremonial counties and not local authority areas.
    Fair enough. I'm a big fan of ceremonial counties. LA reorganisation is a bugbear of mine. It's the closest we have to gerrymandering tbh.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,926

    CNN exit poll looks very good for the GOP

    As you would expect, given the Dems all vote by mail!
  • rcs1000 said:

    Webster County is now 98% counted. And there's good news for the Republicans there - Perdue's margin is up four points on November!

    Disclaimer: it's a tiny, rural county.

    Believe that there are lots of absentee votes everywhere, that won't be counted until the today's in-person vote in counted. Think that the case anyway. Meaning that the "Webster 98% counted" means 98% of precincts counted.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,570
    rcs1000 said:

    My gut is that these numbers look pretty good for the Dems. While Fulton is 22% in - and is a Dem stronghold - you've hardly seen any absentee ballots counted yet, and despite that Warnock and Perdue seem to be doing pretty well.

    I thought Democrats were supposed to be braced for it all looking terrible to start with? I assume the "terrible" will kick in when we're up to 25-30% of the vote counted which will be dominated by those small rural entities with none of the absentee ballots.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    The needles seem to be ever so slightly edging blue right now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276
    edited January 2021
    Exit poll has 48% of voters having voted for Trump and 47% for Biden in November, so at least based on the exit poll would be a slightly more GOP electorate than voted in the presidential election
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,926

    The needles seem to be ever so slightly edging blue right now.

    Be warned, needles can go right as well as left.
  • HYUFD said:
    Mississippi is a state that I've always liked, esp. because of the Natchez Trace Parkway.

    BUT "flourishing" is NOT exactly the right word for a place that ranks at the bottom of the human development index among US states.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    HYUFD said:

    Exit poll has 48% of voters having voted for Trump and 47% for Biden in November, so at least based on the exit poll would be a slightly more GOP electorate than voted in the presidential election

    Does that include postal votes?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,926
    Warnock and Ossoff down to jut 7 and 6 point leads now.

    (Disclaimer: not a single vote from DeKalb is in yet.)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,926
    edited January 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    Warnock and Ossoff down to jut 7 and 6 point leads now.

    (Disclaimer: not a single vote from DeKalb is in yet.)

    Tell a lie: 436 votes (non-absentee) are in.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,503
    HYUFD said:

    Exit poll has 48% of voters having voted for Trump and 47% for Biden in November, so at least based on the exit poll would be a slightly more GOP electorate than voted in the presidential election

    How does the exit poll cope with postal/early voters? Genuine question - maybe it's simply a normal poll but asking the sample how they voted, but "exit poll" tends to mean "ask people as they leave the polling booth.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,926
    HYUFD said:

    Exit poll has 48% of voters having voted for Trump and 47% for Biden in November, so at least based on the exit poll would be a slightly more GOP electorate than voted in the presidential election

    As the vast majority of people voted by mail, I'm not sure how much you can read into that.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    HYUFD said:

    Exit poll has 48% of voters having voted for Trump and 47% for Biden in November, so at least based on the exit poll would be a slightly more GOP electorate than voted in the presidential election

    How does the exit poll cope with postal/early voters? Genuine question - maybe it's simply a normal poll but asking the sample how they voted, but "exit poll" tends to mean "ask people as they leave the polling booth.
    According to the CNN website:

    "The CNN exit poll was conducted by Edison Research for the National Election Pool, a consortium of CNN, ABC News, CBS News and NBC News. Interviews were completed with 5,260 voters in one of three ways: In-person on Election Day at 39 polling places across Georgia, in-person at 25 early voting locations around the state or by telephone for voters who cast ballots by mail or in-person during early voting. Results for the full sample of voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2 percentage points, it is larger for subgroups."
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,410
    It says a lot about Brexit that Hannan, one of its chief cheerleaders, has buggered off at the first opportunity rather than stay to enjoy its “benefits”
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,926
    Interesting that Warnock is running about .1% ahead of Ossoff.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,410
    edited January 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Exit poll has 48% of voters having voted for Trump and 47% for Biden in November, so at least based on the exit poll would be a slightly more GOP electorate than voted in the presidential election

    As the vast majority of people voted by mail, I'm not sure how much you can read into that.
    Surely the exit polls take mail voting into account? If the Election Day turnout was truly 48-47 GOP then the Dems would be on for a landslide
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,926
    In DeKalb, 42 people voted Purdue vs 41 for Loeffler.

  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    No majority on Betfair (i.e. 50/50) has just come down to 1.92
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,825

    It says a lot about Brexit that Hannan, one of its chief cheerleaders, has buggered off at the first opportunity rather than stay to enjoy its “benefits”

    Didn't he just get a seat in the Lords?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,926
    Quincel said:

    HYUFD said:

    Exit poll has 48% of voters having voted for Trump and 47% for Biden in November, so at least based on the exit poll would be a slightly more GOP electorate than voted in the presidential election

    How does the exit poll cope with postal/early voters? Genuine question - maybe it's simply a normal poll but asking the sample how they voted, but "exit poll" tends to mean "ask people as they leave the polling booth.
    According to the CNN website:

    "The CNN exit poll was conducted by Edison Research for the National Election Pool, a consortium of CNN, ABC News, CBS News and NBC News. Interviews were completed with 5,260 voters in one of three ways: In-person on Election Day at 39 polling places across Georgia, in-person at 25 early voting locations around the state or by telephone for voters who cast ballots by mail or in-person during early voting. Results for the full sample of voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2 percentage points, it is larger for subgroups."
    I'd be quite sceptical of the accuracy of that, because it'll be very hard to get a grip on the correct level of turnout for mail in voting. What weight do you give it?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080

    HYUFD said:

    Exit poll has 48% of voters having voted for Trump and 47% for Biden in November, so at least based on the exit poll would be a slightly more GOP electorate than voted in the presidential election

    How does the exit poll cope with postal/early voters? Genuine question - maybe it's simply a normal poll but asking the sample how they voted, but "exit poll" tends to mean "ask people as they leave the polling booth.
    Assume they must have done something. If it was just on-the-day voting you'd expect Trump to have a large lead.

    Easy enough to cover early voting. It's the postal votes that will be hard.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,410
    Andy_JS said:

    It's nice to have an election tonight to take our minds off Covid-19 for a while.

    Yes, especially as iit seems like it will be a while until we next have a UK election
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    The needle is very slowly tilting more blue for both seats.



  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276
    16% in

    Ossoff 57% Perdue 43%

    Special election 8% in

    Warnock 57% Loeffler 43%
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080
    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting that Warnock is running about .1% ahead of Ossoff.

    Is that misogyny against Loeffler, black voters turning out for Warnock alone, ageism counting against the absurdly young Ossoff, or an ideological distinction I'm ignorant of?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,926

    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting that Warnock is running about .1% ahead of Ossoff.

    Is that misogyny against Loeffler, black voters turning out for Warnock alone, ageism counting against the absurdly young Ossoff, or an ideological distinction I'm ignorant of?
    I think it's the fact that Loeffler went campaigning with a klansman.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Interesting that Warnock is running about .1% ahead of Ossoff.

    Yes, or to put it another way, Loeffler is running about 1% behind Perdue.

    Some of the difference is from Black voters splitting their votes for Warnock & Loeffler, or Warnock and skip the other race.

    BUT methinks that more is from White rightwingers who are voting for Purdue but skipping Loeffler, or even voting Warnock. Because they never wanted her in the first place (they voted for Collins in 2020 General) and don't want her now. Heck, some even think the election was stolen just so she'd prevail over the REAL conservative in the first round,
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    With 16% counted


    We don't know the mix so hard to interpret.
    The needle is a better indicator.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,926
    I think turnout will be down more than 14% for the state as a whole, so I'm not sure that's such a great number for the Dems.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,503
    Quincel said:

    HYUFD said:

    Exit poll has 48% of voters having voted for Trump and 47% for Biden in November, so at least based on the exit poll would be a slightly more GOP electorate than voted in the presidential election

    How does the exit poll cope with postal/early voters? Genuine question - maybe it's simply a normal poll but asking the sample how they voted, but "exit poll" tends to mean "ask people as they leave the polling booth.
    According to the CNN website:

    "The CNN exit poll was conducted by Edison Research for the National Election Pool, a consortium of CNN, ABC News, CBS News and NBC News. Interviews were completed with 5,260 voters in one of three ways: In-person on Election Day at 39 polling places across Georgia, in-person at 25 early voting locations around the state or by telephone for voters who cast ballots by mail or in-person during early voting. Results for the full sample of voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2 percentage points, it is larger for subgroups."
    Thanks - fair enough!
  • rcs1000 said:

    Interesting that Warnock is running about .1% ahead of Ossoff.

    Is that misogyny against Loeffler, black voters turning out for Warnock alone, ageism counting against the absurdly young Ossoff, or an ideological distinction I'm ignorant of?
    It's very hard to unpick, but actually you'd expect historically Perdue to do better than Loeffler as a "real" incumbent anyway. Appointed incumbents apparently don't get much benefit if any.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Quincel said:

    HYUFD said:

    Exit poll has 48% of voters having voted for Trump and 47% for Biden in November, so at least based on the exit poll would be a slightly more GOP electorate than voted in the presidential election

    How does the exit poll cope with postal/early voters? Genuine question - maybe it's simply a normal poll but asking the sample how they voted, but "exit poll" tends to mean "ask people as they leave the polling booth.
    According to the CNN website:

    "The CNN exit poll was conducted by Edison Research for the National Election Pool, a consortium of CNN, ABC News, CBS News and NBC News. Interviews were completed with 5,260 voters in one of three ways: In-person on Election Day at 39 polling places across Georgia, in-person at 25 early voting locations around the state or by telephone for voters who cast ballots by mail or in-person during early voting. Results for the full sample of voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2 percentage points, it is larger for subgroups."
    I'd be quite sceptical of the accuracy of that, because it'll be very hard to get a grip on the correct level of turnout for mail in voting. What weight do you give it?
    From the voter file, can tell IF a voter who requested absentee in 2020 General actually returned it or not. And my guess is that the absentee return rate was pretty high for the general, and will be again for the runoff.

    Also, absentees in GA have to be in by EDay to be counted (I think) so pollsters would know abs voters who already returned ballots as of few days ago, and of course same for in-person Early Voting.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    No Majority (50/50) down from 1.92 to 1.71 on Betfair.
    Needle still slowly trending blue for both races
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,503

    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting that Warnock is running about .1% ahead of Ossoff.

    Is that misogyny against Loeffler, black voters turning out for Warnock alone, ageism counting against the absurdly young Ossoff, or an ideological distinction I'm ignorant of?
    Currently looks almost identical. Someone is bound to be slightly ahead but when it's that close I think you have to conclude that 985+ are simply voting the party line. The gulf between the candidates on each side and the expected impact is enormous.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,892
    edited January 2021
    lol Pence just told Trump he's not going to try and chuck him the election
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    Barnesian said:

    No Majority (50/50) down from 1.92 to 1.71 on Betfair.
    Needle still slowly trending blue for both races

    It has swung back a bit slightly in both races but still pointing towards blue.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,169
    The chances of another hand recount must be pretty high with the way things are going.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    isam said:

    Chameleon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Bit of a stupid post as for some demographic groups there are many killer beans and for other demographic groups statistically zero.
    So, here's a bag of jelly beans. If you have one, your granny has to have one too. And it has a one-in-ten chance of killing her.

    Would you like the jelly bean?

    Better?
    To be fair that assumes contact.

    Not enough people on here, or indeed in general, have recognised the sacrifices made by the young (who will also be paying for all this).

    At worst my jelly bean tub has 10,000 jelly beans, of which 1 is bad, whereas I've lost 1.25% of my life, same maths goes for vast swathes of the population.
    And if you say no to the jellybean, you have to stay indoors for a year while the
    country goes skint
    Yeah that's exactly my point, for a good 50% of the population eating the jellybean is the optimal course of action
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276
    edited January 2021
    26% in

    Ossoff 52.7%
    Purdue 47.3%

    Warnock 53.2%
    Loeffler 46.8%
  • So far number total number of votes reported for both races look pretty similar, so no evidence that lots of voters are skipping one race or the other.

    Ticket splitting (just under 5k) so far is net gain for Perdue (and Warnock) as opposed to Loeffler (and Ossoff).
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,825
    Pulpstar said:

    lol Pence just told Trump he's not going to try and chuck him the election

    Someone needs to come along and totally reform how elections are done in the US. Get rid of this ridiculous two months between election and the handover.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    So over 25% of the votes counted. I assume the vote counters will start to go home soon as it's nearly past their bed time?
  • rcs1000 said:

    Interesting that Warnock is running about .1% ahead of Ossoff.

    Is that misogyny against Loeffler, black voters turning out for Warnock alone, ageism counting against the absurdly young Ossoff, or an ideological distinction I'm ignorant of?
    Currently looks almost identical. Someone is bound to be slightly ahead but when it's that close I think you have to conclude that 985+ are simply voting the party line. The gulf between the candidates on each side and the expected impact is enormous.
    "Almost" identical is quite important in a close race. One in two hundred voting for Perdue (half a percent) but not Loeffler could very easily mean he's elected and she loses.
  • So over 25% of the votes counted. I assume the vote counters will start to go home soon as it's nearly past their bed time?

    Well it's only coming up to 8.15pm in Georgia so probably not for a while yet...
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551

    Barnesian said:

    No Majority (50/50) down from 1.92 to 1.71 on Betfair.
    Needle still slowly trending blue for both races

    It has swung back a bit slightly in both races but still pointing towards blue.
    It seems to have stabilised at +1.0 for Warnock and +0.6 for Ossoff




  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,503

    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting that Warnock is running about .1% ahead of Ossoff.

    Is that misogyny against Loeffler, black voters turning out for Warnock alone, ageism counting against the absurdly young Ossoff, or an ideological distinction I'm ignorant of?
    Currently looks almost identical. Someone is bound to be slightly ahead but when it's that close I think you have to conclude that 985+ are simply voting the party line. The gulf between the candidates on each side and the expected impact is enormous.
    "Almost" identical is quite important in a close race. One in two hundred voting for Perdue (half a percent) but not Loeffler could very easily mean he's elected and she loses.
    True.

    Does the Georgia "you must have over 50% of the votes to win" rule apply to these elections too, and if some ballots are spoiled or blank, could that mean one of the races has to be rerun?
  • rcs1000 said:

    Interesting that Warnock is running about .1% ahead of Ossoff.

    Is that misogyny against Loeffler, black voters turning out for Warnock alone, ageism counting against the absurdly young Ossoff, or an ideological distinction I'm ignorant of?
    Currently looks almost identical. Someone is bound to be slightly ahead but when it's that close I think you have to conclude that 985+ are simply voting the party line. The gulf between the candidates on each side and the expected impact is enormous.
    "Almost" identical is quite important in a close race. One in two hundred voting for Perdue (half a percent) but not Loeffler could very easily mean he's elected and she loses.
    In the Perdue versus Loeffler "race" Perdue has always been ahead. Note he came in first in his race in November, just short of an outright majority, while in her race Loeffler came in second, narrowly defeating the third-place Republican who was the rightwing heartthrob. Indeed, she appointed because Gov Kemp thought a (more ) moderate GOPer had better chance of holding the seat.
  • I admire the way CNN bombard us with huge amounts of data, from which we learn very little.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    I admire the way CNN bombard us with huge amounts of data, from which we learn very little.

    Just A Minute played for several hours at a time.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Interesting that Warnock is running about .1% ahead of Ossoff.

    Is that misogyny against Loeffler, black voters turning out for Warnock alone, ageism counting against the absurdly young Ossoff, or an ideological distinction I'm ignorant of?
    Currently looks almost identical. Someone is bound to be slightly ahead but when it's that close I think you have to conclude that 985+ are simply voting the party line. The gulf between the candidates on each side and the expected impact is enormous.
    "Almost" identical is quite important in a close race. One in two hundred voting for Perdue (half a percent) but not Loeffler could very easily mean he's elected and she loses.
    True.

    Does the Georgia "you must have over 50% of the votes to win" rule apply to these elections too, and if some ballots are spoiled or blank, could that mean one of the races has to be rerun?
    No. Most votes wins this time.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,703
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    No Majority (50/50) down from 1.92 to 1.71 on Betfair.
    Needle still slowly trending blue for both races

    It has swung back a bit slightly in both races but still pointing towards blue.
    It seems to have stabilised at +1.0 for Warnock and +0.6 for Ossoff




    Why can't he be Tom, not Jon, Ossoff.

    Sorry - downmarket quip.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    No majority (50/50 i.e. Democrats win both seats) is down to 1.55 on Betfair.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,892
    0.6% gap between the candidates but only 0.4% on the needle.
  • NYT is reporting that in Fulton Co (Atlanta) 82% of "estimated votes" is reported. Do NOT think this included absentees, but don't really know. It IS a much higher % than statewide which is at 41% of estimated
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,169
    Looking good for the Dems atm.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,410
    If the Dems win, will McConnell publicly blame Trump?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276

    NYT is reporting that in Fulton Co (Atlanta) 82% of "estimated votes" is reported. Do NOT think this included absentees, but don't really know. It IS a much higher % than statewide which is at 41% of estimated

    Ossoff currently has 272,151 votes in from Fulton County which includes Atlanta, Biden got 381,144 votes from Fulton in November so it seems most of the Atlanta votes are now in
  • Still a number of GA counties that have not yet reported any votes tonight. However, looks like the biggest pool of uncounted is now concentrated in suburban Atlanta; city count much further along, and still a LOT of votes left in the Cracker hinterland.
  • Gonna come down to a battle between the burbs and the boondocks.
This discussion has been closed.