First, I'm not as convinced as you that AZ is in the bag for Biden. I know you predict 3-4% but he is less than 2% up.
Second, re GA, it will depend on the margin. For it to be uncontestable, I think Biden would have to win by at least 10K and even then I think the Republicans would find ways to disqualify some votes (I'm working on the premise they are going to do everything they can to not declare Biden the winner).
If Biden wins the election comfortably elsewhere - say PA - what stomach do you think the State GOP in GA will have to all that? Serious question, I'd like to know what you think.
My thinking is this and I am sure many will disagree.
I suspect the Trump strategy is to get as close to 270 as they can so that the outcome of the election essentially becomes about one state being flipped on a legal ruling.
They seem to think NC is theirs (many on here disagree but no one in the Biden camp seems to be aggressively pushing NC as a win or that Cunningham has won the Senate). That gets them to 232.
Key will be Arizona. If they win AZ - a big if but it's possible - they get to 243.
If GA awards its electors to Trump, he is at 259. I agree it's a high risk strategy but if it is coming down to a few hundred votes a la Florida in 2000, they might be tempted to try it.
At that point, Trump is 11 away from 270 i.e if he can get a favourable ruling on either PA (where there is a SC case sitting) or MI (where the Supreme Court is Republican), then it
One thing to note - even though Trump has been banging on about vote fraud in his tweets, none of his usual critics in the Republican party such as Ben Nasse or even the likes of Susan Collins have called for him to tone it down and said he is fundamentally wrong. Put bluntly - and I had mentioned in a post pre-election - there is a large part of the Republican party establishment who truly believe that VBM was an attempt by the Democrats to steal the election, and not just your pro-Trump types.
I think you are right on their intent but they are not close enough to pull it off.
They would not just be stealing an election but American democracy itself, Trump would be leader for life if this happens.
I know they are ringing round lawyers at the moment to head up the court battles so they are deadly serious.
As I said, I think this is why Arizona becomes so important. I’m out on a limb here but I don’t think it’s not insurmountable for Trump and the NYT had a good piece explaining why there is a chance he takes it. If he does win there, then I think Georgia will “find” the extra votes and / or disqualify some to call it for Trump (and put Purdue in the Senate). You are then in striking range.
Arizona really is key now.
Once Pennsylvania has been called, and the networks call the race (which they will), then I can't see the Republican establishment (who've never really liked Trump) sticking with him.
At that point you get Lindsay Graham and Mitch McConnell (who's going to quite like being the most important Republican in America) calling for Trump to go. You've already seen the Republican Governor elect of Utah going down that path. Trump is a large part of the Republican Party, but he's not all of it.
He’s not all of it but, as mentioned before, there is a large part of the Republican establishment who believe genuinely the VBM was a ploy to still the election hence the rush to get ACB on the court. PA has been in the SC already once and that was pre-election. It is primed up for another legal challenge.
As I said, a large chunk of the Rep establishment is keeping silent even though this would be the right moment to strike. Part of that is undoubtedly political in not wanting to p1ss the base off but there are other factors are play. None of them really wants to come out of publicly and sign up to the “votes stolen” line because it would be used against them down the line but there are many who think that way. And they are definitely not Trumpsters.
If there were different electoral performances in states with lots of VMB and no VBM, then that would be indicative of cheating. But the reality is that in almost every state (except Florida, where there were plenty of mail ballots that weren't delivered in time, but lets not go there) the vote change is the same: Dems +3-4%, Reps +0-1%.
In any case, if you seriously wanted to weed out cheating (and you'd have though that REPUBLICAN Georgia might), then you very simply do a random sample of 1,000 mail votes, and go manually check.
That that is not being proposed tells me that the Republicans don't really believe that there's any cheating.
I think Republican Georgia is waiting to see what they can get away with. If a legitimate victory, great. If not, expect challenges and what you said. The SOS made it clear he only considers “legal” votes to count. Not all votes.
It may be at some point that the Republicans go enough is enough but it doesn’t appear they are here now.
You're missing my point.
It's very easy to check the validity of a VMB system, especially the way that this works with the signature sheets.
Anyone with a basic understanding of statistics could do it in three days, with 10 people, and a sample of 1,000 voters.
This is about getting this right. Right doesn't mean your side winning. Right means the system working as it's supposed to.
No, I get that. And I don’t think you get what I’m saying which is I think the Republicans will do everything they can to try and negate votes in GA if it is on a razor edge.
It seems to me that Biden has won a lot of votes, whilst still running to the left of Hilary, the Overton window is shifting very slowly.
IMHO, a winning left/centre-left party in 2024 is considerably to the left of Blairism 1997. Something like a 2017-lite seems about right, intuitively.
Biden is not to the left of Clinton at all.
Biden's platform is way more left wing. It had portions of Warren's and Sanders platform in there almost wholesale.
Betfair market on Biden's popular vote share. 52%-54.99% is 6/5-2/1. But with mail ballots yet to count in a bunch of non-close states and California with millions yet to come isn't 52-55% very likely?
Could he go higher?
That's a fair question, but he's at 50.5% at the moment and it feels like gaining 4.5% would be a lot. Even 1.5% might be tough, once you factor in the 3rd party votes (1.75% or so) Biden 55% would mean Trump 43.25% and a massive popular vote lead for Biden. Seems implausible to me, but we'll see.
I think 52% isn't locked in, even that is Trump 46.25% which is an almost 6% popular vote win. But...that's seems fairly plausible given the state results to me.
He's not going to gain that much. 4-4.25% is where Biden's lead will end up, which is a vote share of 51.75ish.
Betfair market on Biden's popular vote share. 52%-54.99% is 6/5-2/1. But with mail ballots yet to count in a bunch of non-close states and California with millions yet to come isn't 52-55% very likely?
Could he go higher?
I reckon the ceiling on Biden's margin on Trump is 4-5% so I suppose its doable.
Betfair market on Biden's popular vote share. 52%-54.99% is 6/5-2/1. But with mail ballots yet to count in a bunch of non-close states and California with millions yet to come isn't 52-55% very likely?
Could he go higher?
That's a fair question, but he's at 50.5% at the moment and it feels like gaining 4.5% would be a lot. Even 1.5% might be tough, once you factor in the 3rd party votes (1.75% or so) Biden 55% would mean Trump 43.25% and a massive popular vote lead for Biden. Seems implausible to me, but we'll see.
I think 52% isn't locked in, even that is Trump 46.25% which is an almost 6% popular vote win. But...that's seems fairly plausible given the state results to me.
He's not going to gain that much. 4-4.25% is where Biden's lead will end up, which is a vote share of 51.75ish.
It looks like @HYUFD's tactic of simply adding "undecideds" to Trump in the national polls was pretty accurate!
Maybe Trafalgar should have used that method instead?
If ever anyone again suggests politically appointing the Supreme Court here, can we just play that clip?
I think they are living in cloud cuckoo land if they think a serious legal scholar like ACB thinks transactionally and feels they "owe Trump one".
He will be going on about lack of gratitude for years.
ACB has just been appointed to a job for life by a lunatic. If there’s a choice between four more years of him in the WH forever telling her how she must return the favour, or cutting him loose and being her own woman....
It seems to me that Biden has won a lot of votes, whilst still running to the left of Hilary, the Overton window is shifting very slowly.
IMHO, a winning left/centre-left party in 2024 is considerably to the left of Blairism 1997. Something like a 2017-lite seems about right, intuitively.
Biden is not to the left of Clinton at all.
Biden's platform is way more left wing. It had portions of Warren's and Sanders platform in there almost wholesale.
Yes, Biden will be the most leftwing US President in economic terms since LBJ, much as Starmer would be the most leftwing UK PM since Harold Wilson, even if like LBJ and Wilson both are careful not to get too close to the radical cultural left
First, I'm not as convinced as you that AZ is in the bag for Biden. I know you predict 3-4% but he is less than 2% up.
Second, re GA, it will depend on the margin. For it to be uncontestable, I think Biden would have to win by at least 10K and even then I think the Republicans would find ways to disqualify some votes (I'm working on the premise they are going to do everything they can to not declare Biden the winner).
If Biden wins the election comfortably elsewhere - say PA - what stomach do you think the State GOP in GA will have to all that? Serious question, I'd like to know what you think.
My thinking is this and I am sure many will disagree.
I suspect the Trump strategy is to get as close to 270 as they can so that the outcome of the election essentially becomes about one state being flipped on a legal ruling.
They seem to think NC is theirs (many on here disagree but no one in the Biden camp seems to be aggressively pushing NC as a win or that Cunningham has won the Senate). That gets them to 232.
Key will be Arizona. If they win AZ - a big if but it's possible - they get to 243.
If GA awards its electors to Trump, he is at 259. I agree it's a high risk strategy but if it is coming down to a few hundred votes a la Florida in 2000, they might be tempted to try it.
At that point, Trump is 11 away from 270 i.e if he can get a favourable ruling on either PA (where there is a SC case sitting) or MI (where the Supreme Court is Republican), then it
One thing to note - even though Trump has been banging on about vote fraud in his tweets, none of his usual critics in the Republican party such as Ben Nasse or even the likes of Susan Collins have called for him to tone it down and said he is fundamentally wrong. Put bluntly - and I had mentioned in a post pre-election - there is a large part of the Republican party establishment who truly believe that VBM was an attempt by the Democrats to steal the election, and not just your pro-Trump types.
I think you are right on their intent but they are not close enough to pull it off.
They would not just be stealing an election but American democracy itself, Trump would be leader for life if this happens.
I know they are ringing round lawyers at the moment to head up the court battles so they are deadly serious.
As I said, I think this is why Arizona becomes so important. I’m out on a limb here but I don’t think it’s not insurmountable for Trump and the NYT had a good piece explaining why there is a chance he takes it. If he does win there, then I think Georgia will “find” the extra votes and / or disqualify some to call it for Trump (and put Purdue in the Senate). You are then in striking range.
Arizona really is key now.
If it happened and they pull the coup detat off successfully do you agree its Trump for life?
No, I think they will view it as being like Florida in 2000. After a while people settle down. As long as there are enough grey areas (was Georgia really 2.000 or 3.000 ahead, were all the mail ballots properly received etc), I don’t think it will ignite the Revolution people think it will. That’s especially the case after this election where the House election seem to suggest people are tiring of things such as BLM and progressive values, and Its clear there is not one big happy People of Colour family supporting the Democrats.
Florida was continuing the status quo.
This would be overturning it.
That's a massive difference.
Splitting it out.
The SC does not like to get involved in state counting. They consider it the job of the legislature. So, if GA was to go, “we think Trump has won the most legal votes”, there would need to be a fairly high bar for the SC to overturn this (this is why you get complications when courts override state legislatures - the rules prefer the latter). So I don’t think they would intervene unless GA did something that was so indefensible (and that is open to interpretation£
We already have a pending SC case around PA’s rules which split 4-4. That will certainly go back to the SC. I can’t see any of the 8 changing their minds so it will be down to ACB.
Personally, I think (a) it would be a disaster and (b) a disgrace if this is how it was decided but that is where it is looking at heading
Late ballots won't be an issue in Pennsylvania. Probably a large number of them were duplicated as Provisional ballots anyway.
Betfair market on Biden's popular vote share. 52%-54.99% is 6/5-2/1. But with mail ballots yet to count in a bunch of non-close states and California with millions yet to come isn't 52-55% very likely?
Could he go higher?
That's a fair question, but he's at 50.5% at the moment and it feels like gaining 4.5% would be a lot. Even 1.5% might be tough, once you factor in the 3rd party votes (1.75% or so) Biden 55% would mean Trump 43.25% and a massive popular vote lead for Biden. Seems implausible to me, but we'll see.
I think 52% isn't locked in, even that is Trump 46.25% which is an almost 6% popular vote win. But...that's seems fairly plausible given the state results to me.
He's not going to gain that much. 4-4.25% is where Biden's lead will end up, which is a vote share of 51.75ish.
It looks like @HYUFD's tactic of simply adding "undecideds" to Trump in the national polls was pretty accurate!
Maybe Trafalgar should have used that method instead?
First, I'm not as convinced as you that AZ is in the bag for Biden. I know you predict 3-4% but he is less than 2% up.
Second, re GA, it will depend on the margin. For it to be uncontestable, I think Biden would have to win by at least 10K and even then I think the Republicans would find ways to disqualify some votes (I'm working on the premise they are going to do everything they can to not declare Biden the winner).
If Biden wins the election comfortably elsewhere - say PA - what stomach do you think the State GOP in GA will have to all that? Serious question, I'd like to know what you think.
My thinking is this and I am sure many will disagree.
I suspect the Trump strategy is to get as close to 270 as they can so that the outcome of the election essentially becomes about one state being flipped on a legal ruling.
They seem to think NC is theirs (many on here disagree but no one in the Biden camp seems to be aggressively pushing NC as a win or that Cunningham has won the Senate). That gets them to 232.
Key will be Arizona. If they win AZ - a big if but it's possible - they get to 243.
If GA awards its electors to Trump, he is at 259. I agree it's a high risk strategy but if it is coming down to a few hundred votes a la Florida in 2000, they might be tempted to try it.
At that point, Trump is 11 away from 270 i.e if he can get a favourable ruling on either PA (where there is a SC case sitting) or MI (where the Supreme Court is Republican), then it
One thing to note - even though Trump has been banging on about vote fraud in his tweets, none of his usual critics in the Republican party such as Ben Nasse or even the likes of Susan Collins have called for him to tone it down and said he is fundamentally wrong. Put bluntly - and I had mentioned in a post pre-election - there is a large part of the Republican party establishment who truly believe that VBM was an attempt by the Democrats to steal the election, and not just your pro-Trump types.
I think you are right on their intent but they are not close enough to pull it off.
They would not just be stealing an election but American democracy itself, Trump would be leader for life if this happens.
I know they are ringing round lawyers at the moment to head up the court battles so they are deadly serious.
As I said, I think this is why Arizona becomes so important. I’m out on a limb here but I don’t think it’s not insurmountable for Trump and the NYT had a good piece explaining why there is a chance he takes it. If he does win there, then I think Georgia will “find” the extra votes and / or disqualify some to call it for Trump (and put Purdue in the Senate). You are then in striking range.
Arizona really is key now.
If it happened and they pull the coup detat off successfully do you agree its Trump for life?
No, I think they will view it as being like Florida in 2000. After a while people settle down. As long as there are enough grey areas (was Georgia really 2.000 or 3.000 ahead, were all the mail ballots properly received etc), I don’t think it will ignite the Revolution people think it will. That’s especially the case after this election where the House election seem to suggest people are tiring of things such as BLM and progressive values, and Its clear there is not one big happy People of Colour family supporting the Democrats.
Florida was continuing the status quo.
This would be overturning it.
That's a massive difference.
Splitting it out.
The SC does not like to get involved in state counting. They consider it the job of the legislature. So, if GA was to go, “we think Trump has won the most legal votes”, there would need to be a fairly high bar for the SC to overturn this (this is why you get complications when courts override state legislatures - the rules prefer the latter). So I don’t think they would intervene unless GA did something that was so indefensible (and that is open to interpretation£
We already have a pending SC case around PA’s rules which split 4-4. That will certainly go back to the SC. I can’t see any of the 8 changing their minds so it will be down to ACB.
Personally, I think (a) it would be a disaster and (b) a disgrace if this is how it was decided but that is where it is looking at heading
Late ballots won't be an issue in Pennsylvania. Probably a large number of them were duplicated as Provisional ballots anyway.
That’s probably true but I’m not sure Trump’s campaign even cares. He will use it as a lever to cast doubt over the legitimacy.
It seems to me that Biden has won a lot of votes, whilst still running to the left of Hilary, the Overton window is shifting very slowly.
IMHO, a winning left/centre-left party in 2024 is considerably to the left of Blairism 1997. Something like a 2017-lite seems about right, intuitively.
Biden is not to the left of Clinton at all.
Biden's platform is way more left wing. It had portions of Warren's and Sanders platform in there almost wholesale.
Yes, Biden will be the most leftwing US President in economic terms since LBJ, much as Starmer would be the most leftwing UK PM since Harold Wilson, even if like LBJ and Wilson both are careful not to get too close to the radical cultural left
First, I'm not as convinced as you that AZ is in the bag for Biden. I know you predict 3-4% but he is less than 2% up.
Second, re GA, it will depend on the margin. For it to be uncontestable, I think Biden would have to win by at least 10K and even then I think the Republicans would find ways to disqualify some votes (I'm working on the premise they are going to do everything they can to not declare Biden the winner).
If Biden wins the election comfortably elsewhere - say PA - what stomach do you think the State GOP in GA will have to all that? Serious question, I'd like to know what you think.
My thinking is this and I am sure many will disagree.
I suspect the Trump strategy is to get as close to 270 as they can so that the outcome of the election essentially becomes about one state being flipped on a legal ruling.
They seem to think NC is theirs (many on here disagree but no one in the Biden camp seems to be aggressively pushing NC as a win or that Cunningham has won the Senate). That gets them to 232.
Key will be Arizona. If they win AZ - a big if but it's possible - they get to 243.
If GA awards its electors to Trump, he is at 259. I agree it's a high risk strategy but if it is coming down to a few hundred votes a la Florida in 2000, they might be tempted to try it.
At that point, Trump is 11 away from 270 i.e if he can get a favourable ruling on either PA (where there is a SC case sitting) or MI (where the Supreme Court is Republican), then it
One thing to note - even though Trump has been banging on about vote fraud in his tweets, none of his usual critics in the Republican party such as Ben Nasse or even the likes of Susan Collins have called for him to tone it down and said he is fundamentally wrong. Put bluntly - and I had mentioned in a post pre-election - there is a large part of the Republican party establishment who truly believe that VBM was an attempt by the Democrats to steal the election, and not just your pro-Trump types.
I think you are right on their intent but they are not close enough to pull it off.
They would not just be stealing an election but American democracy itself, Trump would be leader for life if this happens.
I know they are ringing round lawyers at the moment to head up the court battles so they are deadly serious.
As I said, I think this is why Arizona becomes so important. I’m out on a limb here but I don’t think it’s not insurmountable for Trump and the NYT had a good piece explaining why there is a chance he takes it. If he does win there, then I think Georgia will “find” the extra votes and / or disqualify some to call it for Trump (and put Purdue in the Senate). You are then in striking range.
Arizona really is key now.
If it happened and they pull the coup detat off successfully do you agree its Trump for life?
No, I think they will view it as being like Florida in 2000. After a while people settle down. As long as there are enough grey areas (was Georgia really 2.000 or 3.000 ahead, were all the mail ballots properly received etc), I don’t think it will ignite the Revolution people think it will. That’s especially the case after this election where the House election seem to suggest people are tiring of things such as BLM and progressive values, and Its clear there is not one big happy People of Colour family supporting the Democrats.
Florida was continuing the status quo.
This would be overturning it.
That's a massive difference.
Splitting it out.
The SC does not like to get involved in state counting. They consider it the job of the legislature. So, if GA was to go, “we think Trump has won the most legal votes”, there would need to be a fairly high bar for the SC to overturn this (this is why you get complications when courts override state legislatures - the rules prefer the latter). So I don’t think they would intervene unless GA did something that was so indefensible (and that is open to interpretation£
We already have a pending SC case around PA’s rules which split 4-4. That will certainly go back to the SC. I can’t see any of the 8 changing their minds so it will be down to ACB.
Personally, I think (a) it would be a disaster and (b) a disgrace if this is how it was decided but that is where it is looking at heading
Late ballots won't be an issue in Pennsylvania. Probably a large number of them were duplicated as Provisional ballots anyway.
SoS said so far there were very few - much fewer than in the primaries. Just a few hundred per county, she said.
It seems to me that Biden has won a lot of votes, whilst still running to the left of Hilary, the Overton window is shifting very slowly.
IMHO, a winning left/centre-left party in 2024 is considerably to the left of Blairism 1997. Something like a 2017-lite seems about right, intuitively.
Biden is not to the left of Clinton at all.
Biden's platform is way more left wing. It had portions of Warren's and Sanders platform in there almost wholesale.
Yes, Biden will be the most leftwing US President in economic terms since LBJ, much as Starmer would be the most leftwing UK PM since Harold Wilson, even if like LBJ and Wilson both are careful not to get too close to the radical cultural left
More left wing economically than Trump?
Yes, he will raise taxes on those on above average incomes, will be closer to the unions and will spend more and while he will be more free trade than Trump was he is more protectionist than the Clintons were too
It seems to me that Biden has won a lot of votes, whilst still running to the left of Hilary, the Overton window is shifting very slowly.
IMHO, a winning left/centre-left party in 2024 is considerably to the left of Blairism 1997. Something like a 2017-lite seems about right, intuitively.
Biden is not to the left of Clinton at all.
Biden's platform is way more left wing. It had portions of Warren's and Sanders platform in there almost wholesale.
And will they enact it? Remains to be seen.
Not with a Republican Senate they won't.
On Tuesday Montana voted to legalise pot. Florida voted for a 15 dollar minimum wage - a 15 dollar minimum wage was a key plank of Biden's platform.
The American public is willing to vote for Dem policies but not for Dem politicians apparently.
I think the Biden strategy going forward is to bring simple bills with the pulbic vote tested popular parts of his platform to Congress to get passed and then dare McConnell to pocket veto them.
It seems to me that Biden has won a lot of votes, whilst still running to the left of Hilary, the Overton window is shifting very slowly.
IMHO, a winning left/centre-left party in 2024 is considerably to the left of Blairism 1997. Something like a 2017-lite seems about right, intuitively.
Biden is not to the left of Clinton at all.
Biden's platform is way more left wing. It had portions of Warren's and Sanders platform in there almost wholesale.
Yes, Biden will be the most leftwing US President in economic terms since LBJ, much as Starmer would be the most leftwing UK PM since Harold Wilson, even if like LBJ and Wilson both are careful not to get too close to the radical cultural left
More left wing economically than Trump?
Yes, he will raise taxes on those on above average incomes, will be closer to the unions and will spend more and while he will be more free trade than Trump was he is more protectionist than the Clintons were too
It seems to me that Biden has won a lot of votes, whilst still running to the left of Hilary, the Overton window is shifting very slowly.
IMHO, a winning left/centre-left party in 2024 is considerably to the left of Blairism 1997. Something like a 2017-lite seems about right, intuitively.
Biden is not to the left of Clinton at all.
Biden's platform is way more left wing. It had portions of Warren's and Sanders platform in there almost wholesale.
And will they enact it? Remains to be seen.
Not with a Republican Senate they won't.
On Tuesday Montana voted to legalise pot. Florida voted for a 15 dollar minimum wage - a 15 dollar minimum wage was a key plank of Biden's platform.
The American public is willing to vote for Dem policies but not for Dem politicians apparently.
I think the Biden strategy going forward is to bring simple bills with the pulbic vote tested popular parts of his platform to Congress to get passed and then dare McConnell to pocket veto them.
His issue there is that the House caucus has been clearly burnt by the results and will be wary of doing anything that is seen as too left wing. Instead they will be pushing for caution and anything that doesn’t rock the boat .
Although these stats are misleading as some of the biggest Democratic voting states had their coronovirus peaks when testing was very low. Same figures on deaths would be different.
First, I'm not as convinced as you that AZ is in the bag for Biden. I know you predict 3-4% but he is less than 2% up.
Second, re GA, it will depend on the margin. For it to be uncontestable, I think Biden would have to win by at least 10K and even then I think the Republicans would find ways to disqualify some votes (I'm working on the premise they are going to do everything they can to not declare Biden the winner).
If Biden wins the election comfortably elsewhere - say PA - what stomach do you think the State GOP in GA will have to all that? Serious question, I'd like to know what you think.
My thinking is this and I am sure many will disagree.
I suspect the Trump strategy is to get as close to 270 as they can so that the outcome of the election essentially becomes about one state being flipped on a legal ruling.
They seem to think NC is theirs (many on here disagree but no one in the Biden camp seems to be aggressively pushing NC as a win or that Cunningham has won the Senate). That gets them to 232.
Key will be Arizona. If they win AZ - a big if but it's possible - they get to 243.
If GA awards its electors to Trump, he is at 259. I agree it's a high risk strategy but if it is coming down to a few hundred votes a la Florida in 2000, they might be tempted to try it.
At that point, Trump is 11 away from 270 i.e if he can get a favourable ruling on either PA (where there is a SC case sitting) or MI (where the Supreme Court is Republican), then it
One thing to note - even though Trump has been banging on about vote fraud in his tweets, none of his usual critics in the Republican party such as Ben Nasse or even the likes of Susan Collins have called for him to tone it down and said he is fundamentally wrong. Put bluntly - and I had mentioned in a post pre-election - there is a large part of the Republican party establishment who truly believe that VBM was an attempt by the Democrats to steal the election, and not just your pro-Trump types.
I think you are right on their intent but they are not close enough to pull it off.
They would not just be stealing an election but American democracy itself, Trump would be leader for life if this happens.
I know they are ringing round lawyers at the moment to head up the court battles so they are deadly serious.
As I said, I think this is why Arizona becomes so important. I’m out on a limb here but I don’t think it’s not insurmountable for Trump and the NYT had a good piece explaining why there is a chance he takes it. If he does win there, then I think Georgia will “find” the extra votes and / or disqualify some to call it for Trump (and put Purdue in the Senate). You are then in striking range.
Arizona really is key now.
Once Pennsylvania has been called, and the networks call the race (which they will), then I can't see the Republican establishment (who've never really liked Trump) sticking with him.
At that point you get Lindsay Graham and Mitch McConnell (who's going to quite like being the most important Republican in America) calling for Trump to go. You've already seen the Republican Governor elect of Utah going down that path. Trump is a large part of the Republican Party, but he's not all of it.
He’s not all of it but, as mentioned before, there is a large part of the Republican establishment who believe genuinely the VBM was a ploy to still the election hence the rush to get ACB on the court. PA has been in the SC already once and that was pre-election. It is primed up for another legal challenge.
As I said, a large chunk of the Rep establishment is keeping silent even though this would be the right moment to strike. Part of that is undoubtedly political in not wanting to p1ss the base off but there are other factors are play. None of them really wants to come out of publicly and sign up to the “votes stolen” line because it would be used against them down the line but there are many who think that way. And they are definitely not Trumpsters.
If there were different electoral performances in states with lots of VMB and no VBM, then that would be indicative of cheating. But the reality is that in almost every state (except Florida, where there were plenty of mail ballots that weren't delivered in time, but lets not go there) the vote change is the same: Dems +3-4%, Reps +0-1%.
In any case, if you seriously wanted to weed out cheating (and you'd have though that REPUBLICAN Georgia might), then you very simply do a random sample of 1,000 mail votes, and go manually check.
That that is not being proposed tells me that the Republicans don't really believe that there's any cheating.
I think Republican Georgia is waiting to see what they can get away with. If a legitimate victory, great. If not, expect challenges and what you said. The SOS made it clear he only considers “legal” votes to count. Not all votes.
It may be at some point that the Republicans go enough is enough but it doesn’t appear they are here now.
You're missing my point.
It's very easy to check the validity of a VMB system, especially the way that this works with the signature sheets.
Anyone with a basic understanding of statistics could do it in three days, with 10 people, and a sample of 1,000 voters.
This is about getting this right. Right doesn't mean your side winning. Right means the system working as it's supposed to.
No, I get that. And I don’t think you get what I’m saying which is I think the Republicans will do everything they can to try and negate votes in GA if it is on a razor edge.
Yes, but what Republican state election officials won’t do is break the law blatantly enough to negate so many votes. If this were a close enough count (a couple of hundred votes) that might be almost credible. But it isn’t.
Betfair market on Biden's popular vote share. 52%-54.99% is 6/5-2/1. But with mail ballots yet to count in a bunch of non-close states and California with millions yet to come isn't 52-55% very likely?
Could he go higher?
That's a fair question, but he's at 50.5% at the moment and it feels like gaining 4.5% would be a lot. Even 1.5% might be tough, once you factor in the 3rd party votes (1.75% or so) Biden 55% would mean Trump 43.25% and a massive popular vote lead for Biden. Seems implausible to me, but we'll see.
I think 52% isn't locked in, even that is Trump 46.25% which is an almost 6% popular vote win. But...that's seems fairly plausible given the state results to me.
He's not going to gain that much. 4-4.25% is where Biden's lead will end up, which is a vote share of 51.75ish.
You got a spreadsheet of remaining ballots in all states or something? If you are right then I'll take 2/1 on it anyway as that's close enough for you to be slightly wrong and me win. But if Biden ends on 51.8% I'm gonna be annoyed...
This is not news, the government took the sceptical view presented. Whether the wonks got their interpretation wrong, used the wrong model or were just particularly depressed that day, this was always a live possibility
It seems to me that Biden has won a lot of votes, whilst still running to the left of Hilary, the Overton window is shifting very slowly.
IMHO, a winning left/centre-left party in 2024 is considerably to the left of Blairism 1997. Something like a 2017-lite seems about right, intuitively.
Biden is not to the left of Clinton at all.
Biden's platform is way more left wing. It had portions of Warren's and Sanders platform in there almost wholesale.
Yes, Biden will be the most leftwing US President in economic terms since LBJ, much as Starmer would be the most leftwing UK PM since Harold Wilson, even if like LBJ and Wilson both are careful not to get too close to the radical cultural left
More left wing economically than Trump?
Yes, he will raise taxes on those on above average incomes, will be closer to the unions and will spend more and while he will be more free trade than Trump was he is more protectionist than the Clintons were too
How is he going to do that without the Senate?
He will have the House and the GOP will likely end up with 51 Senators, one of whom will be Collins who has held on in Maine, a normally blue state, if pork can be directed her way then that makes it 50 50 for some key votes and then VP Harris has the casting vote.
Biden like LBJ is an experienced hand who knows who to work Congress
First, I'm not as convinced as you that AZ is in the bag for Biden. I know you predict 3-4% but he is less than 2% up.
Second, re GA, it will depend on the margin. For it to be uncontestable, I think Biden would have to win by at least 10K and even then I think the Republicans would find ways to disqualify some votes (I'm working on the premise they are going to do everything they can to not declare Biden the winner).
If Biden wins the election comfortably elsewhere - say PA - what stomach do you think the State GOP in GA will have to all that? Serious question, I'd like to know what you think.
My thinking is this and I am sure many will disagree.
I suspect the Trump strategy is to get as close to 270 as they can so that the outcome of the election essentially becomes about one state being flipped on a legal ruling.
They seem to think NC is theirs (many on here disagree but no one in the Biden camp seems to be aggressively pushing NC as a win or that Cunningham has won the Senate). That gets them to 232.
Key will be Arizona. If they win AZ - a big if but it's possible - they get to 243.
If GA awards its electors to Trump, he is at 259. I agree it's a high risk strategy but if it is coming down to a few hundred votes a la Florida in 2000, they might be tempted to try it.
At that point, Trump is 11 away from 270 i.e if he can get a favourable ruling on either PA (where there is a SC case sitting) or MI (where the Supreme Court is Republican), then it
One thing to note - even though Trump has been banging on about vote fraud in his tweets, none of his usual critics in the Republican party such as Ben Nasse or even the likes of Susan Collins have called for him to tone it down and said he is fundamentally wrong. Put bluntly - and I had mentioned in a post pre-election - there is a large part of the Republican party establishment who truly believe that VBM was an attempt by the Democrats to steal the election, and not just your pro-Trump types.
I think you are right on their intent but they are not close enough to pull it off.
They would not just be stealing an election but American democracy itself, Trump would be leader for life if this happens.
I know they are ringing round lawyers at the moment to head up the court battles so they are deadly serious.
As I said, I think this is why Arizona becomes so important. I’m out on a limb here but I don’t think it’s not insurmountable for Trump and the NYT had a good piece explaining why there is a chance he takes it. If he does win there, then I think Georgia will “find” the extra votes and / or disqualify some to call it for Trump (and put Purdue in the Senate). You are then in striking range.
Arizona really is key now.
Once Pennsylvania has been called, and the networks call the race (which they will), then I can't see the Republican establishment (who've never really liked Trump) sticking with him.
At that point you get Lindsay Graham and Mitch McConnell (who's going to quite like being the most important Republican in America) calling for Trump to go. You've already seen the Republican Governor elect of Utah going down that path. Trump is a large part of the Republican Party, but he's not all of it.
He’s not all of it but, as mentioned before, there is a large part of the Republican establishment who believe genuinely the VBM was a ploy to still the election hence the rush to get ACB on the court. PA has been in the SC already once and that was pre-election. It is primed up for another legal challenge.
As I said, a large chunk of the Rep establishment is keeping silent even though this would be the right moment to strike. Part of that is undoubtedly political in not wanting to p1ss the base off but there are other factors are play. None of them really wants to come out of publicly and sign up to the “votes stolen” line because it would be used against them down the line but there are many who think that way. And they are definitely not Trumpsters.
If there were different electoral performances in states with lots of VMB and no VBM, then that would be indicative of cheating. But the reality is that in almost every state (except Florida, where there were plenty of mail ballots that weren't delivered in time, but lets not go there) the vote change is the same: Dems +3-4%, Reps +0-1%.
In any case, if you seriously wanted to weed out cheating (and you'd have though that REPUBLICAN Georgia might), then you very simply do a random sample of 1,000 mail votes, and go manually check.
That that is not being proposed tells me that the Republicans don't really believe that there's any cheating.
I think Republican Georgia is waiting to see what they can get away with. If a legitimate victory, great. If not, expect challenges and what you said. The SOS made it clear he only considers “legal” votes to count. Not all votes.
It may be at some point that the Republicans go enough is enough but it doesn’t appear they are here now.
You're missing my point.
It's very easy to check the validity of a VMB system, especially the way that this works with the signature sheets.
Anyone with a basic understanding of statistics could do it in three days, with 10 people, and a sample of 1,000 voters.
This is about getting this right. Right doesn't mean your side winning. Right means the system working as it's supposed to.
No, I get that. And I don’t think you get what I’m saying which is I think the Republicans will do everything they can to try and negate votes in GA if it is on a razor edge.
Yes, but what Republican state election officials won’t do is break the law blatantly enough to negate so many votes. If this were a close enough count (a couple of hundred votes) that might be almost credible. But it isn’t.
First, I'm not as convinced as you that AZ is in the bag for Biden. I know you predict 3-4% but he is less than 2% up.
Second, re GA, it will depend on the margin. For it to be uncontestable, I think Biden would have to win by at least 10K and even then I think the Republicans would find ways to disqualify some votes (I'm working on the premise they are going to do everything they can to not declare Biden the winner).
If Biden wins the election comfortably elsewhere - say PA - what stomach do you think the State GOP in GA will have to all that? Serious question, I'd like to know what you think.
My thinking is this and I am sure many will disagree.
I suspect the Trump strategy is to get as close to 270 as they can so that the outcome of the election essentially becomes about one state being flipped on a legal ruling.
They seem to think NC is theirs (many on here disagree but no one in the Biden camp seems to be aggressively pushing NC as a win or that Cunningham has won the Senate). That gets them to 232.
Key will be Arizona. If they win AZ - a big if but it's possible - they get to 243.
If GA awards its electors to Trump, he is at 259. I agree it's a high risk strategy but if it is coming down to a few hundred votes a la Florida in 2000, they might be tempted to try it.
At that point, Trump is 11 away from 270 i.e if he can get a favourable ruling on either PA (where there is a SC case sitting) or MI (where the Supreme Court is Republican), then it
One thing to note - even though Trump has been banging on about vote fraud in his tweets, none of his usual critics in the Republican party such as Ben Nasse or even the likes of Susan Collins have called for him to tone it down and said he is fundamentally wrong. Put bluntly - and I had mentioned in a post pre-election - there is a large part of the Republican party establishment who truly believe that VBM was an attempt by the Democrats to steal the election, and not just your pro-Trump types.
I think you are right on their intent but they are not close enough to pull it off.
They would not just be stealing an election but American democracy itself, Trump would be leader for life if this happens.
I know they are ringing round lawyers at the moment to head up the court battles so they are deadly serious.
As I said, I think this is why Arizona becomes so important. I’m out on a limb here but I don’t think it’s not insurmountable for Trump and the NYT had a good piece explaining why there is a chance he takes it. If he does win there, then I think Georgia will “find” the extra votes and / or disqualify some to call it for Trump (and put Purdue in the Senate). You are then in striking range.
Arizona really is key now.
If it happened and they pull the coup detat off successfully do you agree its Trump for life?
No, I think they will view it as being like Florida in 2000. After a while people settle down. As long as there are enough grey areas (was Georgia really 2.000 or 3.000 ahead, were all the mail ballots properly received etc), I don’t think it will ignite the Revolution people think it will. That’s especially the case after this election where the House election seem to suggest people are tiring of things such as BLM and progressive values, and Its clear there is not one big happy People of Colour family supporting the Democrats.
A truly sinister post.
I truly think that is what their thinking is at. They will be looking at what happened in FL in. 2000, looking at the House results now and thinking that they can get away with this.
That would be an absolute disaster for everyone but that looks like their intention
If Trump wins legitimately do you think the Democrats will refrain from launching legal challenges in the close states?
Could he sign an Executive Order to stop all vote counting?
No, the counting is a state matter. The federal government lacks jurisdiction.
In practice, if he signed an executive order ordering the DoJ to stop election counts and seize the ballots due to 'suspicions of fraud' he possibly could, though the states do have national guards and other local forces who report to the governor/mayors. He's not looked willing to go anywhere near that far yet though.
It seems to me that Biden has won a lot of votes, whilst still running to the left of Hilary, the Overton window is shifting very slowly.
IMHO, a winning left/centre-left party in 2024 is considerably to the left of Blairism 1997. Something like a 2017-lite seems about right, intuitively.
Biden is not to the left of Clinton at all.
Biden's platform is way more left wing. It had portions of Warren's and Sanders platform in there almost wholesale.
And will they enact it? Remains to be seen.
Not with a Republican Senate they won't.
2 by elections (in effect) in Georgia wiĺl decide that. Not sure attempting to not count/steal/overturn valid votes in what has become a knife edge State is really the best plan going forward.
I feel that Trumps speech will be the match to the tinder. Worrying times ahead
Brace yourself. This is going to be a shocker.
Why? The Toddler will throw a tantrum on TV and look like a complete idiot. The system will ensure his utter lame-duckness until his removal and he will be removed should the USSS need to carry him out to that helicopter and fly him out.
Brilliant not-quite-yet victory speech by Biden. "To make progress, we have to stop treating our opponents as enemies." Now what chance Mitch McConnell will agree?
If ever anyone again suggests politically appointing the Supreme Court here, can we just play that clip?
I think they are living in cloud cuckoo land if they think a serious legal scholar like ACB thinks transactionally and feels they "owe Trump one".
He will be going on about lack of gratitude for years.
ACB has just been appointed to a job for life by a lunatic. If there’s a choice between four more years of him in the WH forever telling her how she must return the favour, or cutting him loose and being her own woman....
Quite. The GOP Senators knew how important getting her in would be, but saving Trump won't have been key to that.
Whilst we are waiting then, genuine history question.
Back in the days before Dems tacked left and GOP to the right, when the South voted Dem, and their leaders like Wallace stood in doorways, what made someone GOP and what made someone Democrat? Truman and Eisenhower for example, what made them decide to stand for the parties they did?
Vote the way your ancestors shot.
There were dirt poor hillbilly counties in Appalachia which were ultra Republican only because their ancestors were anti-secessionist during the civil war.
I have the impression, albeit only from great distance, that Boris held off on Lockdown 2 so long partly because there was some optimism the Tiers system was reducing cases in the worst-hit areas. Will be fascinating to see the ONS survey numbers tomorrow and see if they show slowed growth too.
In practice the capacity warning was probably inevitable because the Tiers had generally not been used to try to force R below 1 - action was being taken only when infection/hospitalisation rates were deemed unacceptably high rather than when they were growing at all. You can't have that happen very long before medium-range capacity forecasting models start flashing red, because growth is assumed to continue up quickly and the policy lag for an intervention like lockdown is so slow, so the warning "lockdown now or else" comes surprisingly early. In this case, too early to fully evaluate the Tier system...
Or maybe it just suddenly dawned on them that to save Xmas they’d have to lock us down for a month or so before. The same thought that dawned on Labour a few weeks earlier.
Plausible but I have my doubts. Xmas maybe played a part, but I really can't see how the Health Secretary could have handled questions in the Commons about why his gvt was committed to a policy that internal planning documents showed would lead to people being turned away from hospitals by Dec. The presentation the PM was given that triggered the big U-turn was very much focused on the capacity issue. Up til that point there had been some grounds for thinking the Tiers were "working" (in some sense) to tackle the worst-hit areas, and indeed this may still turn out to be the case. The gvt weren't told "you must lockdown by this time to prevent additional restrictions at Xmas" but rather "to prevent even the Nightingales overflowing". The fact this argument proved successful on them does seem indicative of which rocks the gvt draws the line at avoiding in their course betwen Scylla and Charybdis.
I have the impression, albeit only from great distance, that Boris held off on Lockdown 2 so long partly because there was some optimism the Tiers system was reducing cases in the worst-hit areas. Will be fascinating to see the ONS survey numbers tomorrow and see if they show slowed growth too.
In practice the capacity warning was probably inevitable because the Tiers had generally not been used to try to force R below 1 - action was being taken only when infection/hospitalisation rates were deemed unacceptably high rather than when they were growing at all. You can't have that happen very long before medium-range capacity forecasting models start flashing red, because growth is assumed to continue up quickly and the policy lag for an intervention like lockdown is so slow, so the warning "lockdown now or else" comes surprisingly early. In this case, too early to fully evaluate the Tier system...
Or maybe it just suddenly dawned on them that to save Xmas they’d have to lock us down for a month or so before. The same thought that dawned on Labour a few weeks earlier.
Plausible but I have my doubts. Xmas maybe played a part, but I really can't see how the Health Secretary could have handled questions in the Commons about why his gvt was committed to a policy that internal planning documents showed would lead to people being turned away from hospitals by Dec. The presentation the PM was given that triggered the big U-turn was very much focused on the capacity issue. Up til that point there had been some grounds for thinking the Tiers were "working" (in some sense) to tackle the worst-hit areas, and indeed this may still turn out to be the case. The gvt weren't told "you must lockdown by this time to prevent additional restrictions at Xmas" but rather "to prevent even the Nightingales overflowing". The fact this argument proved successful on them does seem indicative of which rocks the gvt draws the line at avoiding in their course betwen Scylla and Charybdis.
The Tiers system was introduced 3 weeks ago
Given the lag in hospitalisations etc, we should expect the any effects to begin appearing at the right hand end of the graph....
Since the bits of the Tier system that were actually expected to have any effect were, by definition, very targeted, it might be instructive to look at the Tier regions separately...
When I said "in some sense" works before, my point was that there was some hope the system could be used to bring bad areas under control or stop them spiking up, so that maybe the country could cope overall, rather than "working" in the sense of nationwide reductions in cases, hospitalisations etc. It would have been interesting to do an action replay of the Tier system, but with a Tier 4 for the lockdown-style restrictions and everywhere but the very least affected areas to have been shunted up one level. Not sure if that would have made a decisive difference, in fact I have some reasons to be sceptical (particularly the evidence that people didn't seem to be obeying restrictions in personal contacts, though restrictions on businesses are more enforceable), but it may have done something to address the issue of so many places letting things drift up until forecasts started to look unsustainable.
First, I'm not as convinced as you that AZ is in the bag for Biden. I know you predict 3-4% but he is less than 2% up.
Second, re GA, it will depend on the margin. For it to be uncontestable, I think Biden would have to win by at least 10K and even then I think the Republicans would find ways to disqualify some votes (I'm working on the premise they are going to do everything they can to not declare Biden the winner).
If Biden wins the election comfortably elsewhere - say PA - what stomach do you think the State GOP in GA will have to all that? Serious question, I'd like to know what you think.
My thinking is this and I am sure many will disagree.
I suspect the Trump strategy is to get as close to 270 as they can so that the outcome of the election essentially becomes about one state being flipped on a legal ruling.
They seem to think NC is theirs (many on here disagree but no one in the Biden camp seems to be aggressively pushing NC as a win or that Cunningham has won the Senate). That gets them to 232.
Key will be Arizona. If they win AZ - a big if but it's possible - they get to 243.
If GA awards its electors to Trump, he is at 259. I agree it's a high risk strategy but if it is coming down to a few hundred votes a la Florida in 2000, they might be tempted to try it.
At that point, Trump is 11 away from 270 i.e if he can get a favourable ruling on either PA (where there is a SC case sitting) or MI (where the Supreme Court is Republican), then it
One thing to note - even though Trump has been banging on about vote fraud in his tweets, none of his usual critics in the Republican party such as Ben Nasse or even the likes of Susan Collins have called for him to tone it down and said he is fundamentally wrong. Put bluntly - and I had mentioned in a post pre-election - there is a large part of the Republican party establishment who truly believe that VBM was an attempt by the Democrats to steal the election, and not just your pro-Trump types.
I think you are right on their intent but they are not close enough to pull it off.
They would not just be stealing an election but American democracy itself, Trump would be leader for life if this happens.
I know they are ringing round lawyers at the moment to head up the court battles so they are deadly serious.
As I said, I think this is why Arizona becomes so important. I’m out on a limb here but I don’t think it’s not insurmountable for Trump and the NYT had a good piece explaining why there is a chance he takes it. If he does win there, then I think Georgia will “find” the extra votes and / or disqualify some to call it for Trump (and put Purdue in the Senate). You are then in striking range.
Arizona really is key now.
Once Pennsylvania has been called, and the networks call the race (which they will), then I can't see the Republican establishment (who've never really liked Trump) sticking with him.
At that point you get Lindsay Graham and Mitch McConnell (who's going to quite like being the most important Republican in America) calling for Trump to go. You've already seen the Republican Governor elect of Utah going down that path. Trump is a large part of the Republican Party, but he's not all of it.
He’s not all of it but, as mentioned before, there is a large part of the Republican establishment who believe genuinely the VBM was a ploy to still the election hence the rush to get ACB on the court. PA has been in the SC already once and that was pre-election. It is primed up for another legal challenge.
As I said, a large chunk of the Rep establishment is keeping silent even though this would be the right moment to strike. Part of that is undoubtedly political in not wanting to p1ss the base off but there are other factors are play. None of them really wants to come out of publicly and sign up to the “votes stolen” line because it would be used against them down the line but there are many who think that way. And they are definitely not Trumpsters.
If there were different electoral performances in states with lots of VMB and no VBM, then that would be indicative of cheating. But the reality is that in almost every state (except Florida, where there were plenty of mail ballots that weren't delivered in time, but lets not go there) the vote change is the same: Dems +3-4%, Reps +0-1%.
In any case, if you seriously wanted to weed out cheating (and you'd have though that REPUBLICAN Georgia might), then you very simply do a random sample of 1,000 mail votes, and go manually check.
That that is not being proposed tells me that the Republicans don't really believe that there's any cheating.
I think Republican Georgia is waiting to see what they can get away with. If a legitimate victory, great. If not, expect challenges and what you said. The SOS made it clear he only considers “legal” votes to count. Not all votes.
It may be at some point that the Republicans go enough is enough but it doesn’t appear they are here now.
You're missing my point.
It's very easy to check the validity of a VMB system, especially the way that this works with the signature sheets.
Anyone with a basic understanding of statistics could do it in three days, with 10 people, and a sample of 1,000 voters.
This is about getting this right. Right doesn't mean your side winning. Right means the system working as it's supposed to.
No, I get that. And I don’t think you get what I’m saying which is I think the Republicans will do everything they can to try and negate votes in GA if it is on a razor edge.
Yes, but what Republican state election officials won’t do is break the law blatantly enough to negate so many votes. If this were a close enough count (a couple of hundred votes) that might be almost credible. But it isn’t.
GA loss will only be a small number of thousands
That’s still way too much. Couple of hundred votes, it might be possible - couple of thousand, no way.
If ever anyone again suggests politically appointing the Supreme Court here, can we just play that clip?
I think they are living in cloud cuckoo land if they think a serious legal scholar like ACB thinks transactionally and feels they "owe Trump one".
He will be going on about lack of gratitude for years.
ACB has just been appointed to a job for life by a lunatic. If there’s a choice between four more years of him in the WH forever telling her how she must return the favour, or cutting him loose and being her own woman....
Quite. The GOP Senators knew how important getting her in would be, but saving Trump won't have been key to that.
And what better way to throw off the taint of Shami than demonstrating your independence at the first opportunity.
Betfair market on Biden's popular vote share. 52%-54.99% is 6/5-2/1. But with mail ballots yet to count in a bunch of non-close states and California with millions yet to come isn't 52-55% very likely?
Could he go higher?
That's a fair question, but he's at 50.5% at the moment and it feels like gaining 4.5% would be a lot. Even 1.5% might be tough, once you factor in the 3rd party votes (1.75% or so) Biden 55% would mean Trump 43.25% and a massive popular vote lead for Biden. Seems implausible to me, but we'll see.
I think 52% isn't locked in, even that is Trump 46.25% which is an almost 6% popular vote win. But...that's seems fairly plausible given the state results to me.
He's not going to gain that much. 4-4.25% is where Biden's lead will end up, which is a vote share of 51.75ish.
It looks like @HYUFD's tactic of simply adding "undecideds" to Trump in the national polls was pretty accurate!
Maybe Trafalgar should have used that method instead?
Agreed! I genuinely think @HYUFD has a talent for this stuff. He should be a pollster.
@kle4 posted a really interesting Tweet thread in the last discussion with someone debunking many of the voting fraud theories doing the rounds. Many of them were indeed debunked, though some of them were not.
One that wasn't satisfactorily debunked (in my opinion) was the story of a Philadelphia ballot dump that included no votes for Trump, but 23,000 odd for Biden. The 'debunk' was that a similar thing had happened to Romney in Philadelphia, and at the time, a media organisation had looked for *any* Romney supporters in that district, and found none. That doesn't convince me really, because whilst I understand there might be next to none, not finding any for a vox pop, is not the same as there not being any. It just isn't. In a sample size of 23,000, there is going to be at least one or two contrary fuckers voting for Trump (or Romney for that matter).
Another one, that isn't necessarily evidence of fraud per se, but is very interesting, is Twitter thread, then published on Zerohedge, noting the big divergence in key swing states between votes for Biden, and votes for the Democratic Senate candidates. For example, in Georgia, Biden got 95,000 more votes than the Dem candidate - Trump got 818 more than his candidate. Similar situation in Michigan. At the very least, it would be good to see these numbers for every State, and a good working hypothesis as to why this would be the case.
Hmm, here's a ballot measure that to those unfamiliar with it might seem strange that it was needed with that title, which makes it seem like the existing situation is a bit broader than it is.
Utah Election Results Constitutional Amendment C: Remove Slavery Exception For 81% Winner Against 19%
Here’s a strange thing. Up on my hillside I have electricity. But looking over the Duddon estuary across to Barrow, there is no light at all. A total power cut. Total darkness.
And normally we can see, inter alia, the lights at the BaE factory. And on the offshore wind farm. And at Walney Island airport. Odd that there is no back up generator at BaE or anywhere else.
@kle4 posted a really interesting Tweet thread in the last discussion with someone debunking many of the voting fraud theories doing the rounds. Many of them were indeed debunked, though some of them were not.
One that wasn't satisfactorily debunked (in my opinion) was the story of a Philadelphia ballot dump that included no votes for Trump, but 23,000 odd for Biden. The 'debunk' was that a similar thing had happened to Romney in Philadelphia, and at the time, a media organisation had looked for *any* Romney supporters in that district, and found none. That doesn't convince me really, because whilst I understand there might be next to none, not finding any for a vox pop, is not the same as there not being any. It just isn't. In a sample size of 23,000, there is going to be at least one or two contrary fuckers voting for Trump (or Romney for that matter).
Another one, that isn't necessarily evidence of fraud per se, but is very interesting, is Twitter thread, then published on Zerohedge, noting the big divergence in key swing states between votes for Biden, and votes for the Democratic Senate candidates. For example, in Georgia, Biden got 95,000 more votes than the Dem candidate - Trump got 818 more. At the very least, it would be good to see these numbers for every State, and a good working hypothesis as to why this would be the case.
Thank you, though I only replied to it in fact. Certainly all allegations will need looking at. It's a pain when most will be nonsense, and most that are not would be trivial, but must be done.
Comments
https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1324492191067181056
https://twitter.com/OxfordDiplomat/status/1324271038226698240?s=19
Maybe Trafalgar should have used that method instead?
The Dems stumbled upon exactly the right candidate to stand up to Trump.
By accident. And having tried all other alternatives of course.
The American public is willing to vote for Dem policies but not for Dem politicians apparently.
I think the Biden strategy going forward is to bring simple bills with the pulbic vote tested popular parts of his platform to Congress to get passed and then dare McConnell to pocket veto them.
https://twitter.com/nigel_farage/status/1324477968127823876?s=21
I see the authoritarians are out in force once again on Twitter, this time with a ban fireworks hashtag.
People like Strictly and voted for the Tories. You can't trust people.
If this were a close enough count (a couple of hundred votes) that might be almost credible. But it isn’t.
The lifeforce is draining away.
Not sure how a link helps - point of my post is to show how the running totals have changed.
By definition the old running totals are no longer there.
Biden like LBJ is an experienced hand who knows who to work Congress
In practice, if he signed an executive order ordering the DoJ to stop election counts and seize the ballots due to 'suspicions of fraud' he possibly could, though the states do have national guards and other local forces who report to the governor/mayors. He's not looked willing to go anywhere near that far yet though.
Not sure attempting to not count/steal/overturn valid votes in what has become a knife edge State is really the best plan going forward.
No one listens to a loser.
There were dirt poor hillbilly counties in Appalachia which were ultra Republican only because their ancestors were anti-secessionist during the civil war.
When I said "in some sense" works before, my point was that there was some hope the system could be used to bring bad areas under control or stop them spiking up, so that maybe the country could cope overall, rather than "working" in the sense of nationwide reductions in cases, hospitalisations etc. It would have been interesting to do an action replay of the Tier system, but with a Tier 4 for the lockdown-style restrictions and everywhere but the very least affected areas to have been shunted up one level. Not sure if that would have made a decisive difference, in fact I have some reasons to be sceptical (particularly the evidence that people didn't seem to be obeying restrictions in personal contacts, though restrictions on businesses are more enforceable), but it may have done something to address the issue of so many places letting things drift up until forecasts started to look unsustainable.
Couple of hundred votes, it might be possible - couple of thousand, no way.
Trump has said that God sent SARSCoV2 to the world to test him after he showed too much pride during a conversation the two of them were having, boasting that he'd done such a great job with the economy.
"Act of God" also has a meaning in land law.
Trump is breaking into shards.
The undecideds trick kinda worked didn't it?
One that wasn't satisfactorily debunked (in my opinion) was the story of a Philadelphia ballot dump that included no votes for Trump, but 23,000 odd for Biden. The 'debunk' was that a similar thing had happened to Romney in Philadelphia, and at the time, a media organisation had looked for *any* Romney supporters in that district, and found none. That doesn't convince me really, because whilst I understand there might be next to none, not finding any for a vox pop, is not the same as there not being any. It just isn't. In a sample size of 23,000, there is going to be at least one or two contrary fuckers voting for Trump (or Romney for that matter).
Another one, that isn't necessarily evidence of fraud per se, but is very interesting, is Twitter thread, then published on Zerohedge, noting the big divergence in key swing states between votes for Biden, and votes for the Democratic Senate candidates. For example, in Georgia, Biden got 95,000 more votes than the Dem candidate - Trump got 818 more than his candidate. Similar situation in Michigan. At the very least, it would be good to see these numbers for every State, and a good working hypothesis as to why this would be the case.
Here's the link for anyone curious - if you're not a fan of Zerohedge (I'm not) don't click: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/why-does-biden-have-so-many-more-votes-democrat-senators-swing-states
Utah Election Results
Constitutional Amendment C: Remove Slavery Exception
For 81% Winner Against 19%
Not that re-entry doesn't...
Lol.
And normally we can see, inter alia, the lights at the BaE factory. And on the offshore wind farm. And at Walney Island airport. Odd that there is no back up generator at BaE or anywhere else.
Anyway a good night to look at stars, I guess.
Somebody make it stop.
I've just looked at the counties to declare.
Instinctively it does look like Biden should hang on.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1984_United_States_presidential_election_in_Georgia