Obviously a calm and sober speech in which he will tell his supporters to back down, and wish Biden good luck, promising to affect a high quality transition.
Maybe he's going to order the DOJ to arrest Biden.
First, I'm not as convinced as you that AZ is in the bag for Biden. I know you predict 3-4% but he is less than 2% up.
Second, re GA, it will depend on the margin. For it to be uncontestable, I think Biden would have to win by at least 10K and even then I think the Republicans would find ways to disqualify some votes (I'm working on the premise they are going to do everything they can to not declare Biden the winner).
If Biden wins the election comfortably elsewhere - say PA - what stomach do you think the State GOP in GA will have to all that? Serious question, I'd like to know what you think.
My thinking is this and I am sure many will disagree.
I suspect the Trump strategy is to get as close to 270 as they can so that the outcome of the election essentially becomes about one state being flipped on a legal ruling.
They seem to think NC is theirs (many on here disagree but no one in the Biden camp seems to be aggressively pushing NC as a win or that Cunningham has won the Senate). That gets them to 232.
Key will be Arizona. If they win AZ - a big if but it's possible - they get to 243.
If GA awards its electors to Trump, he is at 259. I agree it's a high risk strategy but if it is coming down to a few hundred votes a la Florida in 2000, they might be tempted to try it.
At that point, Trump is 11 away from 270 i.e if he can get a favourable ruling on either PA (where there is a SC case sitting) or MI (where the Supreme Court is Republican), then it
One thing to note - even though Trump has been banging on about vote fraud in his tweets, none of his usual critics in the Republican party such as Ben Nasse or even the likes of Susan Collins have called for him to tone it down and said he is fundamentally wrong. Put bluntly - and I had mentioned in a post pre-election - there is a large part of the Republican party establishment who truly believe that VBM was an attempt by the Democrats to steal the election, and not just your pro-Trump types.
I think you are right on their intent but they are not close enough to pull it off.
They would not just be stealing an election but American democracy itself, Trump would be leader for life if this happens.
I know they are ringing round lawyers at the moment to head up the court battles so they are deadly serious.
As I said, I think this is why Arizona becomes so important. I’m out on a limb here but I don’t think it’s not insurmountable for Trump and the NYT had a good piece explaining why there is a chance he takes it. If he does win there, then I think Georgia will “find” the extra votes and / or disqualify some to call it for Trump (and put Purdue in the Senate). You are then in striking range.
Arizona really is key now.
Once Pennsylvania has been called, and the networks call the race (which they will), then I can't see the Republican establishment (who've never really liked Trump) sticking with him.
At that point you get Lindsay Graham and Mitch McConnell (who's going to quite like being the most important Republican in America) calling for Trump to go. You've already seen the Republican Governor elect of Utah going down that path. Trump is a large part of the Republican Party, but he's not all of it.
The Republican establishment have always despised Trump, Barbara Bush apparently had a clock in her room counting down the hours until the end of his term and could not understand how any woman could vote for him, her husband reportedly voted for Hillary in 2016, his first ever vote for a Democrat.
Obviously a calm and sober speech in which he will tell his supporters to back down, and wish Biden good luck, promising to affect a high quality transition.
First, I'm not as convinced as you that AZ is in the bag for Biden. I know you predict 3-4% but he is less than 2% up.
Second, re GA, it will depend on the margin. For it to be uncontestable, I think Biden would have to win by at least 10K and even then I think the Republicans would find ways to disqualify some votes (I'm working on the premise they are going to do everything they can to not declare Biden the winner).
If Biden wins the election comfortably elsewhere - say PA - what stomach do you think the State GOP in GA will have to all that? Serious question, I'd like to know what you think.
My thinking is this and I am sure many will disagree.
I suspect the Trump strategy is to get as close to 270 as they can so that the outcome of the election essentially becomes about one state being flipped on a legal ruling.
They seem to think NC is theirs (many on here disagree but no one in the Biden camp seems to be aggressively pushing NC as a win or that Cunningham has won the Senate). That gets them to 232.
Key will be Arizona. If they win AZ - a big if but it's possible - they get to 243.
If GA awards its electors to Trump, he is at 259. I agree it's a high risk strategy but if it is coming down to a few hundred votes a la Florida in 2000, they might be tempted to try it.
At that point, Trump is 11 away from 270 i.e if he can get a favourable ruling on either PA (where there is a SC case sitting) or MI (where the Supreme Court is Republican), then it
One thing to note - even though Trump has been banging on about vote fraud in his tweets, none of his usual critics in the Republican party such as Ben Nasse or even the likes of Susan Collins have called for him to tone it down and said he is fundamentally wrong. Put bluntly - and I had mentioned in a post pre-election - there is a large part of the Republican party establishment who truly believe that VBM was an attempt by the Democrats to steal the election, and not just your pro-Trump types.
I think you are right on their intent but they are not close enough to pull it off.
They would not just be stealing an election but American democracy itself, Trump would be leader for life if this happens.
I know they are ringing round lawyers at the moment to head up the court battles so they are deadly serious.
As I said, I think this is why Arizona becomes so important. I’m out on a limb here but I don’t think it’s not insurmountable for Trump and the NYT had a good piece explaining why there is a chance he takes it. If he does win there, then I think Georgia will “find” the extra votes and / or disqualify some to call it for Trump (and put Purdue in the Senate). You are then in striking range.
Arizona really is key now.
Once Pennsylvania has been called, and the networks call the race (which they will), then I can't see the Republican establishment (who've never really liked Trump) sticking with him.
At that point you get Lindsay Graham and Mitch McConnell (who's going to quite like being the most important Republican in America) calling for Trump to go. You've already seen the Republican Governor elect of Utah going down that path. Trump is a large part of the Republican Party, but he's not all of it.
The Republican establishment have always despised Trump, Barbara Bush apparently had a clock in her room counting down the hours until the end of his term and could not understand how any woman could vote for him, her husband reportedly voted for Hillary in 2016, his first ever vote for a Democrat.
Obviously a calm and sober speech in which he will tell his supporters to back down, and wish Biden good luck, promising to affect a high quality transition.
Maybe he's going to order the DOJ to arrest Biden.
Is that before or after he seizes the television stations and declares a state of emergency to deal with all the fake votes?
First, I'm not as convinced as you that AZ is in the bag for Biden. I know you predict 3-4% but he is less than 2% up.
Second, re GA, it will depend on the margin. For it to be uncontestable, I think Biden would have to win by at least 10K and even then I think the Republicans would find ways to disqualify some votes (I'm working on the premise they are going to do everything they can to not declare Biden the winner).
If Biden wins the election comfortably elsewhere - say PA - what stomach do you think the State GOP in GA will have to all that? Serious question, I'd like to know what you think.
My thinking is this and I am sure many will disagree.
I suspect the Trump strategy is to get as close to 270 as they can so that the outcome of the election essentially becomes about one state being flipped on a legal ruling.
They seem to think NC is theirs (many on here disagree but no one in the Biden camp seems to be aggressively pushing NC as a win or that Cunningham has won the Senate). That gets them to 232.
Key will be Arizona. If they win AZ - a big if but it's possible - they get to 243.
If GA awards its electors to Trump, he is at 259. I agree it's a high risk strategy but if it is coming down to a few hundred votes a la Florida in 2000, they might be tempted to try it.
At that point, Trump is 11 away from 270 i.e if he can get a favourable ruling on either PA (where there is a SC case sitting) or MI (where the Supreme Court is Republican), then it
One thing to note - even though Trump has been banging on about vote fraud in his tweets, none of his usual critics in the Republican party such as Ben Nasse or even the likes of Susan Collins have called for him to tone it down and said he is fundamentally wrong. Put bluntly - and I had mentioned in a post pre-election - there is a large part of the Republican party establishment who truly believe that VBM was an attempt by the Democrats to steal the election, and not just your pro-Trump types.
I think you are right on their intent but they are not close enough to pull it off.
They would not just be stealing an election but American democracy itself, Trump would be leader for life if this happens.
I know they are ringing round lawyers at the moment to head up the court battles so they are deadly serious.
As I said, I think this is why Arizona becomes so important. I’m out on a limb here but I don’t think it’s not insurmountable for Trump and the NYT had a good piece explaining why there is a chance he takes it. If he does win there, then I think Georgia will “find” the extra votes and / or disqualify some to call it for Trump (and put Purdue in the Senate). You are then in striking range.
Arizona really is key now.
Once Pennsylvania has been called, and the networks call the race (which they will), then I can't see the Republican establishment (who've never really liked Trump) sticking with him.
At that point you get Lindsay Graham and Mitch McConnell (who's going to quite like being the most important Republican in America) calling for Trump to go. You've already seen the Republican Governor elect of Utah going down that path. Trump is a large part of the Republican Party, but he's not all of it.
The Republican establishment have always despised Trump, Barbara Bush apparently had a clock in her room counting down the hours until the end of his term and could not understand how any woman could vote for him, her husband reportedly voted for Hillary in 2016, his first ever vote for a Democrat.
Cindy McCain has endorsed Biden, Romney voted to impeach Trump. I think Bob Dole is the only GOP nominee alive who does not loathe the man
They are no longer the Republican establishment.
There are plenty of Republican Senators who loathe Trump. Ben Sasse in Nebraska castigated him on a call with constituents, Mitt Romney does not hide his disdain, and does anyone believe Lindsey Graham's conversion is genuine?
First, I'm not as convinced as you that AZ is in the bag for Biden. I know you predict 3-4% but he is less than 2% up.
Second, re GA, it will depend on the margin. For it to be uncontestable, I think Biden would have to win by at least 10K and even then I think the Republicans would find ways to disqualify some votes (I'm working on the premise they are going to do everything they can to not declare Biden the winner).
If Biden wins the election comfortably elsewhere - say PA - what stomach do you think the State GOP in GA will have to all that? Serious question, I'd like to know what you think.
My thinking is this and I am sure many will disagree.
I suspect the Trump strategy is to get as close to 270 as they can so that the outcome of the election essentially becomes about one state being flipped on a legal ruling.
They seem to think NC is theirs (many on here disagree but no one in the Biden camp seems to be aggressively pushing NC as a win or that Cunningham has won the Senate). That gets them to 232.
Key will be Arizona. If they win AZ - a big if but it's possible - they get to 243.
If GA awards its electors to Trump, he is at 259. I agree it's a high risk strategy but if it is coming down to a few hundred votes a la Florida in 2000, they might be tempted to try it.
At that point, Trump is 11 away from 270 i.e if he can get a favourable ruling on either PA (where there is a SC case sitting) or MI (where the Supreme Court is Republican), then it
One thing to note - even though Trump has been banging on about vote fraud in his tweets, none of his usual critics in the Republican party such as Ben Nasse or even the likes of Susan Collins have called for him to tone it down and said he is fundamentally wrong. Put bluntly - and I had mentioned in a post pre-election - there is a large part of the Republican party establishment who truly believe that VBM was an attempt by the Democrats to steal the election, and not just your pro-Trump types.
I think you are right on their intent but they are not close enough to pull it off.
They would not just be stealing an election but American democracy itself, Trump would be leader for life if this happens.
I know they are ringing round lawyers at the moment to head up the court battles so they are deadly serious.
As I said, I think this is why Arizona becomes so important. I’m out on a limb here but I don’t think it’s not insurmountable for Trump and the NYT had a good piece explaining why there is a chance he takes it. If he does win there, then I think Georgia will “find” the extra votes and / or disqualify some to call it for Trump (and put Purdue in the Senate). You are then in striking range.
Arizona really is key now.
Once Pennsylvania has been called, and the networks call the race (which they will), then I can't see the Republican establishment (who've never really liked Trump) sticking with him.
At that point you get Lindsay Graham and Mitch McConnell (who's going to quite like being the most important Republican in America) calling for Trump to go. You've already seen the Republican Governor elect of Utah going down that path. Trump is a large part of the Republican Party, but he's not all of it.
The Republican establishment have always despised Trump, Barbara Bush apparently had a clock in her room counting down the hours until the end of his term and could not understand how any woman could vote for him, her husband reportedly voted for Hillary in 2016, his first ever vote for a Democrat.
A lot of theoretically pretty low level US politicians put most of even our best politicians these days to shame. It's reassuring in a way that there is always scope for US politics to regenerate if only somebody somewhere can break the cycle of polarisation and culture wars.
It is one of the plusses of a federal system. There are alternative sources of political power not controlled by the centre. But all the parties here seem to want to centralise and homogenise the country.
First, I'm not as convinced as you that AZ is in the bag for Biden. I know you predict 3-4% but he is less than 2% up.
Second, re GA, it will depend on the margin. For it to be uncontestable, I think Biden would have to win by at least 10K and even then I think the Republicans would find ways to disqualify some votes (I'm working on the premise they are going to do everything they can to not declare Biden the winner).
If Biden wins the election comfortably elsewhere - say PA - what stomach do you think the State GOP in GA will have to all that? Serious question, I'd like to know what you think.
My thinking is this and I am sure many will disagree.
I suspect the Trump strategy is to get as close to 270 as they can so that the outcome of the election essentially becomes about one state being flipped on a legal ruling.
They seem to think NC is theirs (many on here disagree but no one in the Biden camp seems to be aggressively pushing NC as a win or that Cunningham has won the Senate). That gets them to 232.
Key will be Arizona. If they win AZ - a big if but it's possible - they get to 243.
If GA awards its electors to Trump, he is at 259. I agree it's a high risk strategy but if it is coming down to a few hundred votes a la Florida in 2000, they might be tempted to try it.
At that point, Trump is 11 away from 270 i.e if he can get a favourable ruling on either PA (where there is a SC case sitting) or MI (where the Supreme Court is Republican), then it
One thing to note - even though Trump has been banging on about vote fraud in his tweets, none of his usual critics in the Republican party such as Ben Nasse or even the likes of Susan Collins have called for him to tone it down and said he is fundamentally wrong. Put bluntly - and I had mentioned in a post pre-election - there is a large part of the Republican party establishment who truly believe that VBM was an attempt by the Democrats to steal the election, and not just your pro-Trump types.
I think you are right on their intent but they are not close enough to pull it off.
They would not just be stealing an election but American democracy itself, Trump would be leader for life if this happens.
I know they are ringing round lawyers at the moment to head up the court battles so they are deadly serious.
As I said, I think this is why Arizona becomes so important. I’m out on a limb here but I don’t think it’s not insurmountable for Trump and the NYT had a good piece explaining why there is a chance he takes it. If he does win there, then I think Georgia will “find” the extra votes and / or disqualify some to call it for Trump (and put Purdue in the Senate). You are then in striking range.
Arizona really is key now.
If it happened and they pull the coup detat off successfully do you agree its Trump for life?
No, I think they will view it as being like Florida in 2000. After a while people settle down. As long as there are enough grey areas (was Georgia really 2.000 or 3.000 ahead, were all the mail ballots properly received etc), I don’t think it will ignite the Revolution people think it will. That’s especially the case after this election where the House election seem to suggest people are tiring of things such as BLM and progressive values, and Its clear there is not one big happy People of Colour family supporting the Democrats.
First, I'm not as convinced as you that AZ is in the bag for Biden. I know you predict 3-4% but he is less than 2% up.
Second, re GA, it will depend on the margin. For it to be uncontestable, I think Biden would have to win by at least 10K and even then I think the Republicans would find ways to disqualify some votes (I'm working on the premise they are going to do everything they can to not declare Biden the winner).
If Biden wins the election comfortably elsewhere - say PA - what stomach do you think the State GOP in GA will have to all that? Serious question, I'd like to know what you think.
My thinking is this and I am sure many will disagree.
I suspect the Trump strategy is to get as close to 270 as they can so that the outcome of the election essentially becomes about one state being flipped on a legal ruling.
They seem to think NC is theirs (many on here disagree but no one in the Biden camp seems to be aggressively pushing NC as a win or that Cunningham has won the Senate). That gets them to 232.
Key will be Arizona. If they win AZ - a big if but it's possible - they get to 243.
If GA awards its electors to Trump, he is at 259. I agree it's a high risk strategy but if it is coming down to a few hundred votes a la Florida in 2000, they might be tempted to try it.
At that point, Trump is 11 away from 270 i.e if he can get a favourable ruling on either PA (where there is a SC case sitting) or MI (where the Supreme Court is Republican), then it
One thing to note - even though Trump has been banging on about vote fraud in his tweets, none of his usual critics in the Republican party such as Ben Nasse or even the likes of Susan Collins have called for him to tone it down and said he is fundamentally wrong. Put bluntly - and I had mentioned in a post pre-election - there is a large part of the Republican party establishment who truly believe that VBM was an attempt by the Democrats to steal the election, and not just your pro-Trump types.
I think you are right on their intent but they are not close enough to pull it off.
They would not just be stealing an election but American democracy itself, Trump would be leader for life if this happens.
I know they are ringing round lawyers at the moment to head up the court battles so they are deadly serious.
As I said, I think this is why Arizona becomes so important. I’m out on a limb here but I don’t think it’s not insurmountable for Trump and the NYT had a good piece explaining why there is a chance he takes it. If he does win there, then I think Georgia will “find” the extra votes and / or disqualify some to call it for Trump (and put Purdue in the Senate). You are then in striking range.
Arizona really is key now.
If it happened and they pull the coup detat off successfully do you agree its Trump for life?
No, I think they will view it as being like Florida in 2000. After a while people settle down. As long as there are enough grey areas (was Georgia really 2.000 or 3.000 ahead, were all the mail ballots properly received etc), I don’t think it will ignite the Revolution people think it will. That’s especially the case after this election where the House election seem to suggest people are tiring of things such as BLM and progressive values, and Its clear there is not one big happy People of Colour family supporting the Democrats.
The sad thing about all of this is on Tuesday night I could have gone to bed, slept for 9 hours, taken my daughter to school THEN checked the news I would have made considerably more money than I will do.
Arrhhh you seem you have suffered the fate I had when betting on the last Ryder cup....
I followed a similar path, though somewhat mitigated by my hedges. If I’d slept for 12 hours I’d have done a great deal better. (Though worse on state betting.)
Betfair market on Biden's popular vote share. 52%-54.99% is 6/5-2/1. But with mail ballots yet to count in a bunch of non-close states and California with millions yet to come isn't 52-55% very likely?
Current % margins on CNN at 23.00 GMT: Arizona Biden +2.4 Georgia Trump +0.2 Nevada Biden +0.9 North Carolina Trump +1.4 Pennsylvania Trump +1.2 US Popular Vote Biden +2.7
The sad thing about all of this is on Tuesday night I could have gone to bed, slept for 9 hours, taken my daughter to school THEN checked the news I would have made considerably more money than I will do.
Arrhhh you seem you have suffered the fate I had when betting on the last Ryder cup....
The big regret is that my postal vote analysis I did yesterday morning had me backing Dems in PA when it was at 3.85. I'd so banjoed my other positins though I had almost no money to get on it.
First, I'm not as convinced as you that AZ is in the bag for Biden. I know you predict 3-4% but he is less than 2% up.
Second, re GA, it will depend on the margin. For it to be uncontestable, I think Biden would have to win by at least 10K and even then I think the Republicans would find ways to disqualify some votes (I'm working on the premise they are going to do everything they can to not declare Biden the winner).
If Biden wins the election comfortably elsewhere - say PA - what stomach do you think the State GOP in GA will have to all that? Serious question, I'd like to know what you think.
My thinking is this and I am sure many will disagree.
I suspect the Trump strategy is to get as close to 270 as they can so that the outcome of the election essentially becomes about one state being flipped on a legal ruling.
They seem to think NC is theirs (many on here disagree but no one in the Biden camp seems to be aggressively pushing NC as a win or that Cunningham has won the Senate). That gets them to 232.
Key will be Arizona. If they win AZ - a big if but it's possible - they get to 243.
If GA awards its electors to Trump, he is at 259. I agree it's a high risk strategy but if it is coming down to a few hundred votes a la Florida in 2000, they might be tempted to try it.
At that point, Trump is 11 away from 270 i.e if he can get a favourable ruling on either PA (where there is a SC case sitting) or MI (where the Supreme Court is Republican), then it
One thing to note - even though Trump has been banging on about vote fraud in his tweets, none of his usual critics in the Republican party such as Ben Nasse or even the likes of Susan Collins have called for him to tone it down and said he is fundamentally wrong. Put bluntly - and I had mentioned in a post pre-election - there is a large part of the Republican party establishment who truly believe that VBM was an attempt by the Democrats to steal the election, and not just your pro-Trump types.
I think you are right on their intent but they are not close enough to pull it off.
They would not just be stealing an election but American democracy itself, Trump would be leader for life if this happens.
I know they are ringing round lawyers at the moment to head up the court battles so they are deadly serious.
As I said, I think this is why Arizona becomes so important. I’m out on a limb here but I don’t think it’s not insurmountable for Trump and the NYT had a good piece explaining why there is a chance he takes it. If he does win there, then I think Georgia will “find” the extra votes and / or disqualify some to call it for Trump (and put Purdue in the Senate). You are then in striking range.
Arizona really is key now.
If it happened and they pull the coup detat off successfully do you agree its Trump for life?
No, I think they will view it as being like Florida in 2000. After a while people settle down. As long as there are enough grey areas (was Georgia really 2.000 or 3.000 ahead, were all the mail ballots properly received etc), I don’t think it will ignite the Revolution people think it will. That’s especially the case after this election where the House election seem to suggest people are tiring of things such as BLM and progressive values, and Its clear there is not one big happy People of Colour family supporting the Democrats.
Betfair market on Biden's popular vote share. 52%-54.99% is 6/5-2/1. But with mail ballots yet to count in a bunch of non-close states and California with millions yet to come isn't 52-55% very likely?
First, I'm not as convinced as you that AZ is in the bag for Biden. I know you predict 3-4% but he is less than 2% up.
Second, re GA, it will depend on the margin. For it to be uncontestable, I think Biden would have to win by at least 10K and even then I think the Republicans would find ways to disqualify some votes (I'm working on the premise they are going to do everything they can to not declare Biden the winner).
If Biden wins the election comfortably elsewhere - say PA - what stomach do you think the State GOP in GA will have to all that? Serious question, I'd like to know what you think.
My thinking is this and I am sure many will disagree.
I suspect the Trump strategy is to get as close to 270 as they can so that the outcome of the election essentially becomes about one state being flipped on a legal ruling.
They seem to think NC is theirs (many on here disagree but no one in the Biden camp seems to be aggressively pushing NC as a win or that Cunningham has won the Senate). That gets them to 232.
Key will be Arizona. If they win AZ - a big if but it's possible - they get to 243.
If GA awards its electors to Trump, he is at 259. I agree it's a high risk strategy but if it is coming down to a few hundred votes a la Florida in 2000, they might be tempted to try it.
At that point, Trump is 11 away from 270 i.e if he can get a favourable ruling on either PA (where there is a SC case sitting) or MI (where the Supreme Court is Republican), then it
One thing to note - even though Trump has been banging on about vote fraud in his tweets, none of his usual critics in the Republican party such as Ben Nasse or even the likes of Susan Collins have called for him to tone it down and said he is fundamentally wrong. Put bluntly - and I had mentioned in a post pre-election - there is a large part of the Republican party establishment who truly believe that VBM was an attempt by the Democrats to steal the election, and not just your pro-Trump types.
I think you are right on their intent but they are not close enough to pull it off.
They would not just be stealing an election but American democracy itself, Trump would be leader for life if this happens.
I know they are ringing round lawyers at the moment to head up the court battles so they are deadly serious.
As I said, I think this is why Arizona becomes so important. I’m out on a limb here but I don’t think it’s not insurmountable for Trump and the NYT had a good piece explaining why there is a chance he takes it. If he does win there, then I think Georgia will “find” the extra votes and / or disqualify some to call it for Trump (and put Purdue in the Senate). You are then in striking range.
Arizona really is key now.
If it happened and they pull the coup detat off successfully do you agree its Trump for life?
No, I think they will view it as being like Florida in 2000. After a while people settle down. As long as there are enough grey areas (was Georgia really 2.000 or 3.000 ahead, were all the mail ballots properly received etc), I don’t think it will ignite the Revolution people think it will. That’s especially the case after this election where the House election seem to suggest people are tiring of things such as BLM and progressive values, and Its clear there is not one big happy People of Colour family supporting the Democrats.
I have the impression, albeit only from great distance, that Boris held off on Lockdown 2 so long partly because there was some optimism the Tiers system was reducing cases in the worst-hit areas. Will be fascinating to see the ONS survey numbers tomorrow and see if they show slowed growth too.
In practice the capacity warning was probably inevitable because the Tiers had generally not been used to try to force R below 1 - action was being taken only when infection/hospitalisation rates were deemed unacceptably high rather than when they were growing at all. You can't have that happen very long before medium-range capacity forecasting models start flashing red, because growth is assumed to continue up quickly and the policy lag for an intervention like lockdown is so slow, so the warning "lockdown now or else" comes surprisingly early. In this case, too early to fully evaluate the Tier system...
Or maybe it just suddenly dawned on them that to save Xmas they’d have to lock us down for a month or so before. The same thought that dawned on Labour a few weeks earlier.
Plausible but I have my doubts. Xmas maybe played a part, but I really can't see how the Health Secretary could have handled questions in the Commons about why his gvt was committed to a policy that internal planning documents showed would lead to people being turned away from hospitals by Dec. The presentation the PM was given that triggered the big U-turn was very much focused on the capacity issue. Up til that point there had been some grounds for thinking the Tiers were "working" (in some sense) to tackle the worst-hit areas, and indeed this may still turn out to be the case. The gvt weren't told "you must lockdown by this time to prevent additional restrictions at Xmas" but rather "to prevent even the Nightingales overflowing". The fact this argument proved successful on them does seem indicative of which rocks the gvt draws the line at avoiding in their course betwen Scylla and Charybdis.
It seems to me that Biden has won a lot of votes, whilst still running to the left of Hilary, the Overton window is shifting very slowly.
IMHO, a winning left/centre-left party in 2024 is considerably to the left of Blairism 1997. Something like a 2017-lite seems about right, intuitively.
You have to wonder whether at some stage George W Bush will give a view?
GWB has already given a view. He does not like Trump and it didn't take much reading between the lines in some of his words in the last few years.
I said this the other night but its worth repeating, there is always talk of the black vote, the Latino vote. What has sent Biden over the top is the average white vote.
President Biden is going to have a hell of a job on his hands making America whole again.
He's going to do more than that. He's going to MAAA (Make America America Again).
But seriously, given how Trump did surprise on the upside in several areas and groups of voters, not sure how Biden even attempts that. Many on his side won't want to be conciliatory, many on the other side won't respond even if he tries. They actively fear one another now, or at least too many do.
That assumes they are two irreconcilable tribes. But they aren't, they are currently polarised, with a hard core of irreconcilable tribes in each camp. Biden is better placed than almost anyone else to reach out to the sane Romney-style Republicans to try to dial down the lunatic lurch into metaphoric - and perhaps even literal - civil war.
Worth noting that with Biden gaining with blue collar whites, and Trump gaining with Blacks and Hispanics, perhaps Americans are not quite as irreconcilable as sometimes appears.
First, I'm not as convinced as you that AZ is in the bag for Biden. I know you predict 3-4% but he is less than 2% up.
Second, re GA, it will depend on the margin. For it to be uncontestable, I think Biden would have to win by at least 10K and even then I think the Republicans would find ways to disqualify some votes (I'm working on the premise they are going to do everything they can to not declare Biden the winner).
If Biden wins the election comfortably elsewhere - say PA - what stomach do you think the State GOP in GA will have to all that? Serious question, I'd like to know what you think.
My thinking is this and I am sure many will disagree.
I suspect the Trump strategy is to get as close to 270 as they can so that the outcome of the election essentially becomes about one state being flipped on a legal ruling.
They seem to think NC is theirs (many on here disagree but no one in the Biden camp seems to be aggressively pushing NC as a win or that Cunningham has won the Senate). That gets them to 232.
Key will be Arizona. If they win AZ - a big if but it's possible - they get to 243.
If GA awards its electors to Trump, he is at 259. I agree it's a high risk strategy but if it is coming down to a few hundred votes a la Florida in 2000, they might be tempted to try it.
At that point, Trump is 11 away from 270 i.e if he can get a favourable ruling on either PA (where there is a SC case sitting) or MI (where the Supreme Court is Republican), then it
One thing to note - even though Trump has been banging on about vote fraud in his tweets, none of his usual critics in the Republican party such as Ben Nasse or even the likes of Susan Collins have called for him to tone it down and said he is fundamentally wrong. Put bluntly - and I had mentioned in a post pre-election - there is a large part of the Republican party establishment who truly believe that VBM was an attempt by the Democrats to steal the election, and not just your pro-Trump types.
I think you are right on their intent but they are not close enough to pull it off.
They would not just be stealing an election but American democracy itself, Trump would be leader for life if this happens.
I know they are ringing round lawyers at the moment to head up the court battles so they are deadly serious.
As I said, I think this is why Arizona becomes so important. I’m out on a limb here but I don’t think it’s not insurmountable for Trump and the NYT had a good piece explaining why there is a chance he takes it. If he does win there, then I think Georgia will “find” the extra votes and / or disqualify some to call it for Trump (and put Purdue in the Senate). You are then in striking range.
Arizona really is key now.
Once Pennsylvania has been called, and the networks call the race (which they will), then I can't see the Republican establishment (who've never really liked Trump) sticking with him.
At that point you get Lindsay Graham and Mitch McConnell (who's going to quite like being the most important Republican in America) calling for Trump to go. You've already seen the Republican Governor elect of Utah going down that path. Trump is a large part of the Republican Party, but he's not all of it.
He’s not all of it but, as mentioned before, there is a large part of the Republican establishment who believe genuinely the VBM was a ploy to still the election hence the rush to get ACB on the court. PA has been in the SC already once and that was pre-election. It is primed up for another legal challenge.
As I said, a large chunk of the Rep establishment is keeping silent even though this would be the right moment to strike. Part of that is undoubtedly political in not wanting to p1ss the base off but there are other factors are play. None of them really wants to come out of publicly and sign up to the “votes stolen” line because it would be used against them down the line but there are many who think that way. And they are definitely not Trumpsters.
If there were different electoral performances in states with lots of VMB and no VBM, then that would be indicative of cheating. But the reality is that in almost every state (except Florida, where there were plenty of mail ballots that weren't delivered in time, but lets not go there) the vote change is the same: Dems +3-4%, Reps +0-1%.
In any case, if you seriously wanted to weed out cheating (and you'd have though that REPUBLICAN Georgia might), then you very simply do a random sample of 1,000 mail votes, and go manually check.
That that is not being proposed tells me that the Republicans don't really believe that there's any cheating.
I think Republican Georgia is waiting to see what they can get away with. If a legitimate victory, great. If not, expect challenges and what you said. The SOS made it clear he only considers “legal” votes to count. Not all votes.
It may be at some point that the Republicans go enough is enough but it doesn’t appear they are here now.
It seems to me that Biden has won a lot of votes, whilst still running to the left of Hilary, the Overton window is shifting very slowly.
IMHO, a winning left/centre-left party in 2024 is considerably to the left of Blairism 1997. Something like a 2017-lite seems about right, intuitively.
If mail-ins had been done first this would have been called for Biden on election night likely over 270 and it would have been a decisive victory already.
I have the impression, albeit only from great distance, that Boris held off on Lockdown 2 so long partly because there was some optimism the Tiers system was reducing cases in the worst-hit areas. Will be fascinating to see the ONS survey numbers tomorrow and see if they show slowed growth too.
In practice the capacity warning was probably inevitable because the Tiers had generally not been used to try to force R below 1 - action was being taken only when infection/hospitalisation rates were deemed unacceptably high rather than when they were growing at all. You can't have that happen very long before medium-range capacity forecasting models start flashing red, because growth is assumed to continue up quickly and the policy lag for an intervention like lockdown is so slow, so the warning "lockdown now or else" comes surprisingly early. In this case, too early to fully evaluate the Tier system...
Or maybe it just suddenly dawned on them that to save Xmas they’d have to lock us down for a month or so before. The same thought that dawned on Labour a few weeks earlier.
Plausible but I have my doubts. Xmas maybe played a part, but I really can't see how the Health Secretary could have handled questions in the Commons about why his gvt was committed to a policy that internal planning documents showed would lead to people being turned away from hospitals by Dec. The presentation the PM was given that triggered the big U-turn was very much focused on the capacity issue. Up til that point there had been some grounds for thinking the Tiers were "working" (in some sense) to tackle the worst-hit areas, and indeed this may still turn out to be the case. The gvt weren't told "you must lockdown by this time to prevent additional restrictions at Xmas" but rather "to prevent even the Nightingales overflowing". The fact this argument proved successful on them does seem indicative of which rocks the gvt draws the line at avoiding in their course betwen Scylla and Charybdis.
I have the impression, albeit only from great distance, that Boris held off on Lockdown 2 so long partly because there was some optimism the Tiers system was reducing cases in the worst-hit areas. Will be fascinating to see the ONS survey numbers tomorrow and see if they show slowed growth too.
In practice the capacity warning was probably inevitable because the Tiers had generally not been used to try to force R below 1 - action was being taken only when infection/hospitalisation rates were deemed unacceptably high rather than when they were growing at all. You can't have that happen very long before medium-range capacity forecasting models start flashing red, because growth is assumed to continue up quickly and the policy lag for an intervention like lockdown is so slow, so the warning "lockdown now or else" comes surprisingly early. In this case, too early to fully evaluate the Tier system...
Or maybe it just suddenly dawned on them that to save Xmas they’d have to lock us down for a month or so before. The same thought that dawned on Labour a few weeks earlier.
Plausible but I have my doubts. Xmas maybe played a part, but I really can't see how the Health Secretary could have handled questions in the Commons about why his gvt was committed to a policy that internal planning documents showed would lead to people being turned away from hospitals by Dec. The presentation the PM was given that triggered the big U-turn was very much focused on the capacity issue. Up til that point there had been some grounds for thinking the Tiers were "working" (in some sense) to tackle the worst-hit areas, and indeed this may still turn out to be the case. The gvt weren't told "you must lockdown by this time to prevent additional restrictions at Xmas" but rather "to prevent even the Nightingales overflowing". The fact this argument proved successful on them does seem indicative of which rocks the gvt draws the line at avoiding in their course betwen Scylla and Charybdis.
The Tiers system was introduced 3 weeks ago
Given the lag in hospitalisations etc, we should expect the any effects to begin appearing at the right hand end of the graph....
First, I'm not as convinced as you that AZ is in the bag for Biden. I know you predict 3-4% but he is less than 2% up.
Second, re GA, it will depend on the margin. For it to be uncontestable, I think Biden would have to win by at least 10K and even then I think the Republicans would find ways to disqualify some votes (I'm working on the premise they are going to do everything they can to not declare Biden the winner).
If Biden wins the election comfortably elsewhere - say PA - what stomach do you think the State GOP in GA will have to all that? Serious question, I'd like to know what you think.
My thinking is this and I am sure many will disagree.
I suspect the Trump strategy is to get as close to 270 as they can so that the outcome of the election essentially becomes about one state being flipped on a legal ruling.
They seem to think NC is theirs (many on here disagree but no one in the Biden camp seems to be aggressively pushing NC as a win or that Cunningham has won the Senate). That gets them to 232.
Key will be Arizona. If they win AZ - a big if but it's possible - they get to 243.
If GA awards its electors to Trump, he is at 259. I agree it's a high risk strategy but if it is coming down to a few hundred votes a la Florida in 2000, they might be tempted to try it.
At that point, Trump is 11 away from 270 i.e if he can get a favourable ruling on either PA (where there is a SC case sitting) or MI (where the Supreme Court is Republican), then it
One thing to note - even though Trump has been banging on about vote fraud in his tweets, none of his usual critics in the Republican party such as Ben Nasse or even the likes of Susan Collins have called for him to tone it down and said he is fundamentally wrong. Put bluntly - and I had mentioned in a post pre-election - there is a large part of the Republican party establishment who truly believe that VBM was an attempt by the Democrats to steal the election, and not just your pro-Trump types.
I think you are right on their intent but they are not close enough to pull it off.
They would not just be stealing an election but American democracy itself, Trump would be leader for life if this happens.
I know they are ringing round lawyers at the moment to head up the court battles so they are deadly serious.
As I said, I think this is why Arizona becomes so important. I’m out on a limb here but I don’t think it’s not insurmountable for Trump and the NYT had a good piece explaining why there is a chance he takes it. If he does win there, then I think Georgia will “find” the extra votes and / or disqualify some to call it for Trump (and put Purdue in the Senate). You are then in striking range.
Arizona really is key now.
If it happened and they pull the coup detat off successfully do you agree its Trump for life?
No, I think they will view it as being like Florida in 2000. After a while people settle down. As long as there are enough grey areas (was Georgia really 2.000 or 3.000 ahead, were all the mail ballots properly received etc), I don’t think it will ignite the Revolution people think it will. That’s especially the case after this election where the House election seem to suggest people are tiring of things such as BLM and progressive values, and Its clear there is not one big happy People of Colour family supporting the Democrats.
A truly sinister post.
I truly think that is what their thinking is at. They will be looking at what happened in FL in. 2000, looking at the House results now and thinking that they can get away with this.
That would be an absolute disaster for everyone but that looks like their intention
First, I'm not as convinced as you that AZ is in the bag for Biden. I know you predict 3-4% but he is less than 2% up.
Second, re GA, it will depend on the margin. For it to be uncontestable, I think Biden would have to win by at least 10K and even then I think the Republicans would find ways to disqualify some votes (I'm working on the premise they are going to do everything they can to not declare Biden the winner).
If Biden wins the election comfortably elsewhere - say PA - what stomach do you think the State GOP in GA will have to all that? Serious question, I'd like to know what you think.
My thinking is this and I am sure many will disagree.
I suspect the Trump strategy is to get as close to 270 as they can so that the outcome of the election essentially becomes about one state being flipped on a legal ruling.
They seem to think NC is theirs (many on here disagree but no one in the Biden camp seems to be aggressively pushing NC as a win or that Cunningham has won the Senate). That gets them to 232.
Key will be Arizona. If they win AZ - a big if but it's possible - they get to 243.
If GA awards its electors to Trump, he is at 259. I agree it's a high risk strategy but if it is coming down to a few hundred votes a la Florida in 2000, they might be tempted to try it.
At that point, Trump is 11 away from 270 i.e if he can get a favourable ruling on either PA (where there is a SC case sitting) or MI (where the Supreme Court is Republican), then it
One thing to note - even though Trump has been banging on about vote fraud in his tweets, none of his usual critics in the Republican party such as Ben Nasse or even the likes of Susan Collins have called for him to tone it down and said he is fundamentally wrong. Put bluntly - and I had mentioned in a post pre-election - there is a large part of the Republican party establishment who truly believe that VBM was an attempt by the Democrats to steal the election, and not just your pro-Trump types.
I think you are right on their intent but they are not close enough to pull it off.
They would not just be stealing an election but American democracy itself, Trump would be leader for life if this happens.
I know they are ringing round lawyers at the moment to head up the court battles so they are deadly serious.
As I said, I think this is why Arizona becomes so important. I’m out on a limb here but I don’t think it’s not insurmountable for Trump and the NYT had a good piece explaining why there is a chance he takes it. If he does win there, then I think Georgia will “find” the extra votes and / or disqualify some to call it for Trump (and put Purdue in the Senate). You are then in striking range.
Arizona really is key now.
Are you forecasting a Trump win in Arizona?
So Trump is going to win Arizona, cheat in Georgia, and then win the Presidency by winning court cases accusing the Democrats of cheating in Pennsylvania?
Well, he’d like to.
The most amazing thing about his plan is I think he thought it all up by himself! Though the winning and cheating bits were always interchangeable..
First, I'm not as convinced as you that AZ is in the bag for Biden. I know you predict 3-4% but he is less than 2% up.
Second, re GA, it will depend on the margin. For it to be uncontestable, I think Biden would have to win by at least 10K and even then I think the Republicans would find ways to disqualify some votes (I'm working on the premise they are going to do everything they can to not declare Biden the winner).
If Biden wins the election comfortably elsewhere - say PA - what stomach do you think the State GOP in GA will have to all that? Serious question, I'd like to know what you think.
My thinking is this and I am sure many will disagree.
I suspect the Trump strategy is to get as close to 270 as they can so that the outcome of the election essentially becomes about one state being flipped on a legal ruling.
They seem to think NC is theirs (many on here disagree but no one in the Biden camp seems to be aggressively pushing NC as a win or that Cunningham has won the Senate). That gets them to 232.
Key will be Arizona. If they win AZ - a big if but it's possible - they get to 243.
If GA awards its electors to Trump, he is at 259. I agree it's a high risk strategy but if it is coming down to a few hundred votes a la Florida in 2000, they might be tempted to try it.
At that point, Trump is 11 away from 270 i.e if he can get a favourable ruling on either PA (where there is a SC case sitting) or MI (where the Supreme Court is Republican), then it
One thing to note - even though Trump has been banging on about vote fraud in his tweets, none of his usual critics in the Republican party such as Ben Nasse or even the likes of Susan Collins have called for him to tone it down and said he is fundamentally wrong. Put bluntly - and I had mentioned in a post pre-election - there is a large part of the Republican party establishment who truly believe that VBM was an attempt by the Democrats to steal the election, and not just your pro-Trump types.
I think you are right on their intent but they are not close enough to pull it off.
They would not just be stealing an election but American democracy itself, Trump would be leader for life if this happens.
I know they are ringing round lawyers at the moment to head up the court battles so they are deadly serious.
As I said, I think this is why Arizona becomes so important. I’m out on a limb here but I don’t think it’s not insurmountable for Trump and the NYT had a good piece explaining why there is a chance he takes it. If he does win there, then I think Georgia will “find” the extra votes and / or disqualify some to call it for Trump (and put Purdue in the Senate). You are then in striking range.
Arizona really is key now.
If it happened and they pull the coup detat off successfully do you agree its Trump for life?
No, I think they will view it as being like Florida in 2000. After a while people settle down. As long as there are enough grey areas (was Georgia really 2.000 or 3.000 ahead, were all the mail ballots properly received etc), I don’t think it will ignite the Revolution people think it will. That’s especially the case after this election where the House election seem to suggest people are tiring of things such as BLM and progressive values, and Its clear there is not one big happy People of Colour family supporting the Democrats.
Florida was continuing the status quo.
This would be overturning it.
That's a massive difference.
Florida was, and still is to this day, massively controversial in any event - and turned on under a thousand votes. One of the Republicans most experienced election lawyers was interviewed this morning and said he’d never seen in his thirty year career a margin of more than a thousand votes overturned.
Mr E is suggesting that might happen more than once over the next week. It’s fantasy.
Betfair market on Biden's popular vote share. 52%-54.99% is 6/5-2/1. But with mail ballots yet to count in a bunch of non-close states and California with millions yet to come isn't 52-55% very likely?
First, I'm not as convinced as you that AZ is in the bag for Biden. I know you predict 3-4% but he is less than 2% up.
Second, re GA, it will depend on the margin. For it to be uncontestable, I think Biden would have to win by at least 10K and even then I think the Republicans would find ways to disqualify some votes (I'm working on the premise they are going to do everything they can to not declare Biden the winner).
If Biden wins the election comfortably elsewhere - say PA - what stomach do you think the State GOP in GA will have to all that? Serious question, I'd like to know what you think.
My thinking is this and I am sure many will disagree.
I suspect the Trump strategy is to get as close to 270 as they can so that the outcome of the election essentially becomes about one state being flipped on a legal ruling.
They seem to think NC is theirs (many on here disagree but no one in the Biden camp seems to be aggressively pushing NC as a win or that Cunningham has won the Senate). That gets them to 232.
Key will be Arizona. If they win AZ - a big if but it's possible - they get to 243.
If GA awards its electors to Trump, he is at 259. I agree it's a high risk strategy but if it is coming down to a few hundred votes a la Florida in 2000, they might be tempted to try it.
At that point, Trump is 11 away from 270 i.e if he can get a favourable ruling on either PA (where there is a SC case sitting) or MI (where the Supreme Court is Republican), then it
One thing to note - even though Trump has been banging on about vote fraud in his tweets, none of his usual critics in the Republican party such as Ben Nasse or even the likes of Susan Collins have called for him to tone it down and said he is fundamentally wrong. Put bluntly - and I had mentioned in a post pre-election - there is a large part of the Republican party establishment who truly believe that VBM was an attempt by the Democrats to steal the election, and not just your pro-Trump types.
I think you are right on their intent but they are not close enough to pull it off.
They would not just be stealing an election but American democracy itself, Trump would be leader for life if this happens.
I know they are ringing round lawyers at the moment to head up the court battles so they are deadly serious.
As I said, I think this is why Arizona becomes so important. I’m out on a limb here but I don’t think it’s not insurmountable for Trump and the NYT had a good piece explaining why there is a chance he takes it. If he does win there, then I think Georgia will “find” the extra votes and / or disqualify some to call it for Trump (and put Purdue in the Senate). You are then in striking range.
Arizona really is key now.
Once Pennsylvania has been called, and the networks call the race (which they will), then I can't see the Republican establishment (who've never really liked Trump) sticking with him.
At that point you get Lindsay Graham and Mitch McConnell (who's going to quite like being the most important Republican in America) calling for Trump to go. You've already seen the Republican Governor elect of Utah going down that path. Trump is a large part of the Republican Party, but he's not all of it.
He’s not all of it but, as mentioned before, there is a large part of the Republican establishment who believe genuinely the VBM was a ploy to still the election hence the rush to get ACB on the court. PA has been in the SC already once and that was pre-election. It is primed up for another legal challenge.
As I said, a large chunk of the Rep establishment is keeping silent even though this would be the right moment to strike. Part of that is undoubtedly political in not wanting to p1ss the base off but there are other factors are play. None of them really wants to come out of publicly and sign up to the “votes stolen” line because it would be used against them down the line but there are many who think that way. And they are definitely not Trumpsters.
If there were different electoral performances in states with lots of VMB and no VBM, then that would be indicative of cheating. But the reality is that in almost every state (except Florida, where there were plenty of mail ballots that weren't delivered in time, but lets not go there) the vote change is the same: Dems +3-4%, Reps +0-1%.
In any case, if you seriously wanted to weed out cheating (and you'd have though that REPUBLICAN Georgia might), then you very simply do a random sample of 1,000 mail votes, and go manually check.
That that is not being proposed tells me that the Republicans don't really believe that there's any cheating.
I think Republican Georgia is waiting to see what they can get away with. If a legitimate victory, great. If not, expect challenges and what you said. The SOS made it clear he only considers “legal” votes to count. Not all votes.
It may be at some point that the Republicans go enough is enough but it doesn’t appear they are here now.
Politicians (and probably people in general) tend to leave it way too late before telling their leader "enough is enough". Think about Corbyn. Or Thatcher. Who in their right mind wants to be the first to stick the boot in? Much more prudent to let someone else take that bullet.
It seems to me that Biden has won a lot of votes, whilst still running to the left of Hilary, the Overton window is shifting very slowly.
IMHO, a winning left/centre-left party in 2024 is considerably to the left of Blairism 1997. Something like a 2017-lite seems about right, intuitively.
Biden is not to the left of Clinton at all.
He is more of a tax and spend Democrat than the Clintons were and closer to the unions, he is not as left as Sanders was but Biden will clearly shift the US left economically, though the GOP Senate will limit how far he and Pelosi and Harris can go. After all Biden is a friend of Neil Kinnock and even plagiarised one of his speeches
First, I'm not as convinced as you that AZ is in the bag for Biden. I know you predict 3-4% but he is less than 2% up.
Second, re GA, it will depend on the margin. For it to be uncontestable, I think Biden would have to win by at least 10K and even then I think the Republicans would find ways to disqualify some votes (I'm working on the premise they are going to do everything they can to not declare Biden the winner).
If Biden wins the election comfortably elsewhere - say PA - what stomach do you think the State GOP in GA will have to all that? Serious question, I'd like to know what you think.
My thinking is this and I am sure many will disagree.
I suspect the Trump strategy is to get as close to 270 as they can so that the outcome of the election essentially becomes about one state being flipped on a legal ruling.
They seem to think NC is theirs (many on here disagree but no one in the Biden camp seems to be aggressively pushing NC as a win or that Cunningham has won the Senate). That gets them to 232.
Key will be Arizona. If they win AZ - a big if but it's possible - they get to 243.
If GA awards its electors to Trump, he is at 259. I agree it's a high risk strategy but if it is coming down to a few hundred votes a la Florida in 2000, they might be tempted to try it.
At that point, Trump is 11 away from 270 i.e if he can get a favourable ruling on either PA (where there is a SC case sitting) or MI (where the Supreme Court is Republican), then it
One thing to note - even though Trump has been banging on about vote fraud in his tweets, none of his usual critics in the Republican party such as Ben Nasse or even the likes of Susan Collins have called for him to tone it down and said he is fundamentally wrong. Put bluntly - and I had mentioned in a post pre-election - there is a large part of the Republican party establishment who truly believe that VBM was an attempt by the Democrats to steal the election, and not just your pro-Trump types.
I think you are right on their intent but they are not close enough to pull it off.
They would not just be stealing an election but American democracy itself, Trump would be leader for life if this happens.
I know they are ringing round lawyers at the moment to head up the court battles so they are deadly serious.
As I said, I think this is why Arizona becomes so important. I’m out on a limb here but I don’t think it’s not insurmountable for Trump and the NYT had a good piece explaining why there is a chance he takes it. If he does win there, then I think Georgia will “find” the extra votes and / or disqualify some to call it for Trump (and put Purdue in the Senate). You are then in striking range.
Arizona really is key now.
Once Pennsylvania has been called, and the networks call the race (which they will), then I can't see the Republican establishment (who've never really liked Trump) sticking with him.
At that point you get Lindsay Graham and Mitch McConnell (who's going to quite like being the most important Republican in America) calling for Trump to go. You've already seen the Republican Governor elect of Utah going down that path. Trump is a large part of the Republican Party, but he's not all of it.
He’s not all of it but, as mentioned before, there is a large part of the Republican establishment who believe genuinely the VBM was a ploy to still the election hence the rush to get ACB on the court. PA has been in the SC already once and that was pre-election. It is primed up for another legal challenge.
As I said, a large chunk of the Rep establishment is keeping silent even though this would be the right moment to strike. Part of that is undoubtedly political in not wanting to p1ss the base off but there are other factors are play. None of them really wants to come out of publicly and sign up to the “votes stolen” line because it would be used against them down the line but there are many who think that way. And they are definitely not Trumpsters.
If there were different electoral performances in states with lots of VMB and no VBM, then that would be indicative of cheating. But the reality is that in almost every state (except Florida, where there were plenty of mail ballots that weren't delivered in time, but lets not go there) the vote change is the same: Dems +3-4%, Reps +0-1%.
In any case, if you seriously wanted to weed out cheating (and you'd have though that REPUBLICAN Georgia might), then you very simply do a random sample of 1,000 mail votes, and go manually check.
That that is not being proposed tells me that the Republicans don't really believe that there's any cheating.
I think Republican Georgia is waiting to see what they can get away with. If a legitimate victory, great. If not, expect challenges and what you said. The SOS made it clear he only considers “legal” votes to count. Not all votes.
It may be at some point that the Republicans go enough is enough but it doesn’t appear they are here now.
You're missing my point.
It's very easy to check the validity of a VMB system, especially the way that this works with the signature sheets.
Anyone with a basic understanding of statistics could do it in three days, with 10 people, and a sample of 1,000 voters.
This is about getting this right. Right doesn't mean your side winning. Right means the system working as it's supposed to.
It seems to me that Biden has won a lot of votes, whilst still running to the left of Hilary, the Overton window is shifting very slowly.
IMHO, a winning left/centre-left party in 2024 is considerably to the left of Blairism 1997. Something like a 2017-lite seems about right, intuitively.
Biden is not to the left of Clinton at all.
He is more of a tax and spend Democrat than the Clintons were and closer to the unions, he is not as left as Sanders was but Biden will clearly shift the US left economically, though the GOP Senate will limit how far he and Pelosi and Harris can go. After all Biden is a friend of Kinnock and even plagiarised one of his speeches
I doubt that he will shift it that much beyond what any middle of the road Democrat will do.
Betfair market on Biden's popular vote share. 52%-54.99% is 6/5-2/1. But with mail ballots yet to count in a bunch of non-close states and California with millions yet to come isn't 52-55% very likely?
Could he go higher?
I reckon the ceiling on Biden's margin on Trump is 4-5% so I suppose its doable.
Isn't Trump going through the 5 stages of Grief and Loss? 1. Denial and Isolation, 'we won, stop the count' and bunkering down 2. Anger , hes there now (though he might be at this stage for a long time) then 3. Bargaining,,,,perhaps saying to Biden , how about you let me be president and I'll let you sleep with Melania 4. Depression (this is the bit where you keep him away from those important buttons) and finally 5.Acceptance.....(yes I know he's never going to get to this stage but as its part of the 5 stage process I had to add it)
First, I'm not as convinced as you that AZ is in the bag for Biden. I know you predict 3-4% but he is less than 2% up.
Second, re GA, it will depend on the margin. For it to be uncontestable, I think Biden would have to win by at least 10K and even then I think the Republicans would find ways to disqualify some votes (I'm working on the premise they are going to do everything they can to not declare Biden the winner).
If Biden wins the election comfortably elsewhere - say PA - what stomach do you think the State GOP in GA will have to all that? Serious question, I'd like to know what you think.
My thinking is this and I am sure many will disagree.
I suspect the Trump strategy is to get as close to 270 as they can so that the outcome of the election essentially becomes about one state being flipped on a legal ruling.
They seem to think NC is theirs (many on here disagree but no one in the Biden camp seems to be aggressively pushing NC as a win or that Cunningham has won the Senate). That gets them to 232.
Key will be Arizona. If they win AZ - a big if but it's possible - they get to 243.
If GA awards its electors to Trump, he is at 259. I agree it's a high risk strategy but if it is coming down to a few hundred votes a la Florida in 2000, they might be tempted to try it.
At that point, Trump is 11 away from 270 i.e if he can get a favourable ruling on either PA (where there is a SC case sitting) or MI (where the Supreme Court is Republican), then it
One thing to note - even though Trump has been banging on about vote fraud in his tweets, none of his usual critics in the Republican party such as Ben Nasse or even the likes of Susan Collins have called for him to tone it down and said he is fundamentally wrong. Put bluntly - and I had mentioned in a post pre-election - there is a large part of the Republican party establishment who truly believe that VBM was an attempt by the Democrats to steal the election, and not just your pro-Trump types.
I think you are right on their intent but they are not close enough to pull it off.
They would not just be stealing an election but American democracy itself, Trump would be leader for life if this happens.
I know they are ringing round lawyers at the moment to head up the court battles so they are deadly serious.
As I said, I think this is why Arizona becomes so important. I’m out on a limb here but I don’t think it’s not insurmountable for Trump and the NYT had a good piece explaining why there is a chance he takes it. If he does win there, then I think Georgia will “find” the extra votes and / or disqualify some to call it for Trump (and put Purdue in the Senate). You are then in striking range.
Arizona really is key now.
If it happened and they pull the coup detat off successfully do you agree its Trump for life?
No, I think they will view it as being like Florida in 2000. After a while people settle down. As long as there are enough grey areas (was Georgia really 2.000 or 3.000 ahead, were all the mail ballots properly received etc), I don’t think it will ignite the Revolution people think it will. That’s especially the case after this election where the House election seem to suggest people are tiring of things such as BLM and progressive values, and Its clear there is not one big happy People of Colour family supporting the Democrats.
Florida was continuing the status quo.
This would be overturning it.
That's a massive difference.
Splitting it out.
The SC does not like to get involved in state counting. They consider it the job of the legislature. So, if GA was to go, “we think Trump has won the most legal votes”, there would need to be a fairly high bar for the SC to overturn this (this is why you get complications when courts override state legislatures - the rules prefer the latter). So I don’t think they would intervene unless GA did something that was so indefensible (and that is open to interpretation£
We already have a pending SC case around PA’s rules which split 4-4. That will certainly go back to the SC. I can’t see any of the 8 changing their minds so it will be down to ACB.
Personally, I think (a) it would be a disaster and (b) a disgrace if this is how it was decided but that is where it is looking at heading
I have the impression, albeit only from great distance, that Boris held off on Lockdown 2 so long partly because there was some optimism the Tiers system was reducing cases in the worst-hit areas. Will be fascinating to see the ONS survey numbers tomorrow and see if they show slowed growth too.
In practice the capacity warning was probably inevitable because the Tiers had generally not been used to try to force R below 1 - action was being taken only when infection/hospitalisation rates were deemed unacceptably high rather than when they were growing at all. You can't have that happen very long before medium-range capacity forecasting models start flashing red, because growth is assumed to continue up quickly and the policy lag for an intervention like lockdown is so slow, so the warning "lockdown now or else" comes surprisingly early. In this case, too early to fully evaluate the Tier system...
Or maybe it just suddenly dawned on them that to save Xmas they’d have to lock us down for a month or so before. The same thought that dawned on Labour a few weeks earlier.
Plausible but I have my doubts. Xmas maybe played a part, but I really can't see how the Health Secretary could have handled questions in the Commons about why his gvt was committed to a policy that internal planning documents showed would lead to people being turned away from hospitals by Dec. The presentation the PM was given that triggered the big U-turn was very much focused on the capacity issue. Up til that point there had been some grounds for thinking the Tiers were "working" (in some sense) to tackle the worst-hit areas, and indeed this may still turn out to be the case. The gvt weren't told "you must lockdown by this time to prevent additional restrictions at Xmas" but rather "to prevent even the Nightingales overflowing". The fact this argument proved successful on them does seem indicative of which rocks the gvt draws the line at avoiding in their course betwen Scylla and Charybdis.
I have the impression, albeit only from great distance, that Boris held off on Lockdown 2 so long partly because there was some optimism the Tiers system was reducing cases in the worst-hit areas. Will be fascinating to see the ONS survey numbers tomorrow and see if they show slowed growth too.
In practice the capacity warning was probably inevitable because the Tiers had generally not been used to try to force R below 1 - action was being taken only when infection/hospitalisation rates were deemed unacceptably high rather than when they were growing at all. You can't have that happen very long before medium-range capacity forecasting models start flashing red, because growth is assumed to continue up quickly and the policy lag for an intervention like lockdown is so slow, so the warning "lockdown now or else" comes surprisingly early. In this case, too early to fully evaluate the Tier system...
Or maybe it just suddenly dawned on them that to save Xmas they’d have to lock us down for a month or so before. The same thought that dawned on Labour a few weeks earlier.
Plausible but I have my doubts. Xmas maybe played a part, but I really can't see how the Health Secretary could have handled questions in the Commons about why his gvt was committed to a policy that internal planning documents showed would lead to people being turned away from hospitals by Dec. The presentation the PM was given that triggered the big U-turn was very much focused on the capacity issue. Up til that point there had been some grounds for thinking the Tiers were "working" (in some sense) to tackle the worst-hit areas, and indeed this may still turn out to be the case. The gvt weren't told "you must lockdown by this time to prevent additional restrictions at Xmas" but rather "to prevent even the Nightingales overflowing". The fact this argument proved successful on them does seem indicative of which rocks the gvt draws the line at avoiding in their course betwen Scylla and Charybdis.
The Tiers system was introduced 3 weeks ago.
No.. "Tier 2" has effectively been in place for around 7-8 weeks in the North East and other places. We already know what the effect of that is.
It seems to me that Biden has won a lot of votes, whilst still running to the left of Hilary, the Overton window is shifting very slowly.
IMHO, a winning left/centre-left party in 2024 is considerably to the left of Blairism 1997. Something like a 2017-lite seems about right, intuitively.
Biden is not to the left of Clinton at all.
He is more of a tax and spend Democrat than the Clintons were and closer to the unions, he is not as left as Sanders was but Biden will clearly shift the US left economically, though the GOP Senate will limit how far he and Pelosi and Harris can go. After all Biden is a friend of Kinnock and even plagiarised one of his speeches
I doubt that he will shift it that much beyond what any middle of the road Democrat will do.
I think we can say that if a Biden presidency is followed by a Starmer premiership and with the knock on effects of huge extra government spending required by Covid lockdowns, the Thatcher Reagan economic legacy will have come to an end on both sides of the Atlantic.
Starmer and Biden are both basically tax the rich and spend and regulate more social democrats
It seems to me that Biden has won a lot of votes, whilst still running to the left of Hilary, the Overton window is shifting very slowly.
IMHO, a winning left/centre-left party in 2024 is considerably to the left of Blairism 1997. Something like a 2017-lite seems about right, intuitively.
Biden is not to the left of Clinton at all.
Biden's platform is way more left wing. It had portions of Warren's and Sanders platform in there almost wholesale.
Betfair market on Biden's popular vote share. 52%-54.99% is 6/5-2/1. But with mail ballots yet to count in a bunch of non-close states and California with millions yet to come isn't 52-55% very likely?
Could he go higher?
That's a fair question, but he's at 50.5% at the moment and it feels like gaining 4.5% would be a lot. Even 1.5% might be tough, once you factor in the 3rd party votes (1.75% or so) Biden 55% would mean Trump 43.25% and a massive popular vote lead for Biden. Seems implausible to me, but we'll see.
I think 52% isn't locked in, even that is Trump 46.25% which is an almost 6% popular vote win. But...that's seems fairly plausible given the state results to me.
(Though if you think my numbers are wrong and 55% is possible...270/1 is on there now.)
It seems to me that Biden has won a lot of votes, whilst still running to the left of Hilary, the Overton window is shifting very slowly.
IMHO, a winning left/centre-left party in 2024 is considerably to the left of Blairism 1997. Something like a 2017-lite seems about right, intuitively.
Biden is not to the left of Clinton at all.
Biden's platform is way more left wing. It had portions of Warren's and Sanders platform in there almost wholesale.
It seems to me that Biden has won a lot of votes, whilst still running to the left of Hilary, the Overton window is shifting very slowly.
IMHO, a winning left/centre-left party in 2024 is considerably to the left of Blairism 1997. Something like a 2017-lite seems about right, intuitively.
Biden is not to the left of Clinton at all.
Biden's platform is way more left wing. It had portions of Warren's and Sanders platform in there almost wholesale.
Philly county is still sitting on something like 80-90k votes (they can't count quickly because the trumpkins whined about the social distancing requirements and so they can only use tables <6ft from the observer lines). Plausible now that Philly alone could nearly or totally wipe out Trump's lead. That takes us down to somewhere like 150k votes remaining VBM. After that it's pure profit.
Comments
Biden 21,000
Trump 10,000
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wDh8J_3v4c
https://twitter.com/kadhim/status/1324485343274557443
She'd be a little over one year older then than Joe Biden is now.
If I’d slept for 12 hours I’d have done a great deal better.
(Though worse on state betting.)
Arizona Biden +2.4
Georgia Trump +0.2
Nevada Biden +0.9
North Carolina Trump +1.4
Pennsylvania Trump +1.2
US Popular Vote Biden +2.7
This would be overturning it.
That's a massive difference.
What planet are they on ?
IMHO, a winning left/centre-left party in 2024 is considerably to the left of Blairism 1997. Something like a 2017-lite seems about right, intuitively.
I said this the other night but its worth repeating, there is always talk of the black vote, the Latino vote. What has sent Biden over the top is the average white vote.
Genuinely think this is a possibility and would be something of a victory.
It may be at some point that the Republicans go enough is enough but it doesn’t appear they are here now.
Oh my.
🍿🍿🍿😅
Given the lag in hospitalisations etc, we should expect the any effects to begin appearing at the right hand end of the graph....
That would be an absolute disaster for everyone but that looks like their intention
One of the Republicans most experienced election lawyers was interviewed this morning and said he’d never seen in his thirty year career a margin of more than a thousand votes overturned.
Mr E is suggesting that might happen more than once over the next week. It’s fantasy.
Pennsylvania is going to deliver the final blow.
At first gradually.
And then suddenly.
It's very easy to check the validity of a VMB system, especially the way that this works with the signature sheets.
Anyone with a basic understanding of statistics could do it in three days, with 10 people, and a sample of 1,000 voters.
This is about getting this right. Right doesn't mean your side winning. Right means the system working as it's supposed to.
In the highest turnout election ever.
1. Denial and Isolation, 'we won, stop the count' and bunkering down
2. Anger , hes there now (though he might be at this stage for a long time) then
3. Bargaining,,,,perhaps saying to Biden , how about you let me be president and I'll let you sleep with Melania
4. Depression (this is the bit where you keep him away from those important buttons) and finally
5.Acceptance.....(yes I know he's never going to get to this stage but as its part of the 5 stage process I had to add it)
The SC does not like to get involved in state counting. They consider it the job of the legislature. So, if GA was to go, “we think Trump has won the most legal votes”, there would need to be a fairly high bar for the SC to overturn this (this is why you get complications when courts override state legislatures - the rules prefer the latter). So I don’t think they would intervene unless GA did something that was so indefensible (and that is open to interpretation£
We already have a pending SC case around PA’s rules which split 4-4. That will certainly go back to the SC. I can’t see any of the 8 changing their minds so it will be down to ACB.
Personally, I think (a) it would be a disaster and (b) a disgrace if this is how it was decided but that is where it is looking at heading
https://babylonbee.com/news/trump-sharpens-wooden-stake-to-take-down-the-count
Starmer and Biden are both basically tax the rich and spend and regulate more social democrats
I think 52% isn't locked in, even that is Trump 46.25% which is an almost 6% popular vote win. But...that's seems fairly plausible given the state results to me.
(Though if you think my numbers are wrong and 55% is possible...270/1 is on there now.)