Trump traces it all back to Fox's calling of the state.
Doesn't Arizona going the other way actually undermine him in a way? The Trump argument is "it's funny how all these votes they are 'finding' are Democrat". But they're not, and demonstrably not if Arizona goes the other way - it depends on the local process and which type and location of votes are left to be counted towards the end.
Have you never watched Trump? He does not need facts. He just makes things up. Even the US networks are calling him a liar on air.
Trump traces it all back to Fox's calling of the state.
Doesn't Arizona going the other way actually undermine him in a way? The Trump argument is "it's funny how all these votes they are 'finding' are Democrat". But they're not, and demonstrably not if Arizona goes the other way - it depends on the local process and which type and location of votes are left to be counted towards the end.
Have you never watched Trump? He does not need facts. He just makes things up. Even the US networks are calling him a liar on air.
Not just the US networks - SKY news just said Trump isn't providing any evidence for his claims.
I don't mean to be funny but the size of the protests Sky are showing, I have more people waiting to get into CostCo on a normal Monday morning. Hopefully it stays that way.
Was just quoting CNN - I haven't been tracking the AZ running totals so can't be sure if they are new or whether they were referring to an earlier update.
I think that’s right. Larry Hogan is never going to win - he’s a Republican Governor of a Democratic state - so he’s at liberty to criticise. Others aren’t.
Also bear in mind, the GOP picked up House seats. These new members might not be so keen to ditch Trump.
There’s also a problem here for the GOP leadership. Trump managed to create a truly seismic shift (in comparison with before) in non-white votes. The GOP, at least with Hispanics, are at the point of making a significant break through. If they ditch Trump now, it’s likely they lose that support.
Were the Hispanics really pro-Trump? Or were they anti-Biden/socialist?
The Cubans were. The Hispanics in Arizona are a huge reason the State has gone from bastion to knife edge. But they are Mexicans/C. Americans. We do the same with "Asians ".
I think that’s right. Larry Hogan is never going to win - he’s a Republican Governor of a Democratic state - so he’s at liberty to criticise. Others aren’t.
Also bear in mind, the GOP picked up House seats. These new members might not be so keen to ditch Trump.
There’s also a problem here for the GOP leadership. Trump managed to create a truly seismic shift (in comparison with before) in non-white votes. The GOP, at least with Hispanics, are at the point of making a significant break through. If they ditch Trump now, it’s likely they lose that support.
Were the Hispanics really pro-Trump? Or were they anti-Biden/socialist?
The Cubans were. The Hispanics in Arizona are a huge reason the State has gone from bastion to knife edge. But they are Mexicans/C. Americans. We do the same with "Asians ".
Sorry i was specifically referring to the Hispanics of Florida. Has there been a swing to Trump (and therefore a "new coalition to lose" in Arizona?
What's the view on provisional ballots? Aren't they likely to be mainly Trump voters?
Aren't a lot of provisional ballots from people who applied for postal votes but say they didn't get it (so they need to check they've not actually cast the postal vote before the provisional vote counts)?
The postal votes are mainly Democrat, so a lot of people turning up to the polling place saying "I applied for a postal vote but didn't receive it" will also be Democrats.
Trump traces it all back to Fox's calling of the state.
Because that affects the votes...somehow. He's a special man.
Weird to see the conspiracy so out in the open but that's what fucked the strategy, such that it was? He wanted to be winning until they counted the postal votes, then try to shut down the postal vote counting. But AZ counted in the opposite direction, and now the whole thing looks ridiculous.
18,936 Mail Ins left in Georgia from just 7 Counties.
Clayton County 5726 left will put him level Gwinnet 4800 left will put him ahead by almost 2k Laurens 1857 left could make it closer Cobb favours Biden Forsyth 50/50
Then over 18k provisional ballots and up to 9 k Military after that
A lot of theoretically pretty low level US politicians put most of even our best politicians these days to shame. It's reassuring in a way that there is always scope for US politics to regenerate if only somebody somewhere can break the cycle of polarisation and culture wars.
It is one of the plusses of a federal system. There are alternative sources of political power not controlled by the centre. But all the parties here seem to want to centralise and homogenise the country.
"all the parties"= both the parties who run the crooked and broken FPTP system
Surprised CNN (John King) is making the mistake of saying Trump HAS to win Georgia to win the election. Have i missed something?
Think he is assuming Biden wins NV and AZ
I assume you mean OR, not AND.
But actually just thinking about it. After tonight, would Trump win on a 269-269 tie? Might the House decide, er, perhaps not? And go for Biden. Or even another random Republican if that's an option?
I think that’s right. Larry Hogan is never going to win - he’s a Republican Governor of a Democratic state - so he’s at liberty to criticise. Others aren’t.
Also bear in mind, the GOP picked up House seats. These new members might not be so keen to ditch Trump.
There’s also a problem here for the GOP leadership. Trump managed to create a truly seismic shift (in comparison with before) in non-white votes. The GOP, at least with Hispanics, are at the point of making a significant break through. If they ditch Trump now, it’s likely they lose that support.
Were the Hispanics really pro-Trump? Or were they anti-Biden/socialist?
The Cubans were. The Hispanics in Arizona are a huge reason the State has gone from bastion to knife edge. But they are Mexicans/C. Americans. We do the same with "Asians ".
Sorry i was specifically referring to the Hispanics of Florida. Has there been a swing to Trump (and therefore a "new coalition to lose" in Arizona?
Sorry my friend. Am a bit pissed having tried to stay sober and not enough sleep. There has been a huge GOTV amongst Hispanics in Arizona. Which has made a deep red State competitive. I may have misunderstood your post. Forgive me.
Surprised CNN (John King) is making the mistake of saying Trump HAS to win Georgia to win the election. Have i missed something?
Think he is assuming Biden wins NV and AZ
I assume you mean OR, not AND.
But actually just thinking about it. After tonight, would Trump win on a 269-269 tie? Might the House decide, er, perhaps not? And go for Biden. Or even another random Republican if that's an option?
Yep SCOTUS possibility of stealing it back so would like to see Biden win more than PA
Unless Biden wins GA and NV or GA and AZ or all 3, then PAs 20 votes mean if it was reversed Trump would win. So unless Biden wins one of those 3 combinations theres a real risk of something happening with the SCOTUS I feel.
She wasn't up to it, unfortunately, since you need to beat what's in front of you. But she was absolutely right.
She did beat him - by 3 million votes!
You don't get prizes for winning under a system you're not running under.
She won the popular vote. The Electoral Kindergarten is a system that enables LOSERS like Dickhead Donald to steal the election like he did in 2016.
Under the Electoral Kindergarten, small states like Wyoming get proportionally more electors than large states. Wyoming gets one EV per 200,000 people (roughly), whereas California gets one EV per 700,000 people.
This AZ count is maddening. Unlike the Midwest the votes left are far less homogenous, so Trump gets closer and closer and then Biden widens the gap by a couple of thousand. And you never know which will happen next.
Surprised CNN (John King) is making the mistake of saying Trump HAS to win Georgia to win the election. Have i missed something?
Think he is assuming Biden wins NV and AZ
I assume you mean OR, not AND.
But actually just thinking about it. After tonight, would Trump win on a 269-269 tie? Might the House decide, er, perhaps not? And go for Biden. Or even another random Republican if that's an option?
GA for Biden everything else Trump is 269/269
That ship has sailed.
I was talking hypothetically. If it happened would the House actually vote for him along party lines after tonight? I think not.
If Trump does try to get this to the Supreme Court, I wonder what they will think of his antics? I know they are supposed to rule solely on the basis of the law as written, but having somebody got total batshit who could be in charge for another 4 years, be very hard to put that out of your mind.
This AZ count is maddening. Unlike the Midwest the votes left are far less homogenous, so Trump gets closer and closer and then Biden widens the gap by a couple of thousand. And you never know which will happen next.
Yep SCOTUS possibility of stealing it back so would like to see Biden win more than PA
Unless Biden wins GA and NV or GA and AZ or all 3, then PAs 20 votes mean if it was reversed Trump would win. So unless Biden wins one of those 3 combinations theres a real risk of something happening with the SCOTUS I feel.
If Trump does try to get this to the Supreme Court, I wonder what they will think of his antics? I know they are supposed to rule solely on the basis of the law as written, but having somebody got total batshit, be very hard to put that to one side.
Probably similar to what everyone else thinks of them!
This AZ count is maddening. Unlike the Midwest the votes left are far less homogenous, so Trump gets closer and closer and then Biden widens the gap by a couple of thousand. And you never know which will happen next.
450k votes left apparently.
And only 56k in it. Wonder how many days it'll take for them to count them.
I think that’s right. Larry Hogan is never going to win - he’s a Republican Governor of a Democratic state - so he’s at liberty to criticise. Others aren’t.
Also bear in mind, the GOP picked up House seats. These new members might not be so keen to ditch Trump.
There’s also a problem here for the GOP leadership. Trump managed to create a truly seismic shift (in comparison with before) in non-white votes. The GOP, at least with Hispanics, are at the point of making a significant break through. If they ditch Trump now, it’s likely they lose that support.
Were the Hispanics really pro-Trump? Or were they anti-Biden/socialist?
The Cubans were. The Hispanics in Arizona are a huge reason the State has gone from bastion to knife edge. But they are Mexicans/C. Americans. We do the same with "Asians ".
Its a bit like thinking Europeans would all vote the same way....... (Farage and Guy Verhofstat for example, both have `Belgian' sounding names but politically a distance apart).
Yep SCOTUS possibility of stealing it back so would like to see Biden win more than PA
Unless Biden wins GA and NV or GA and AZ or all 3, then PAs 20 votes mean if it was reversed Trump would win. So unless Biden wins one of those 3 combinations theres a real risk of something happening with the SCOTUS I feel.
Nope.
270 to win.
Then it’s over.
The SCOTUS don’t need him. And don’t owe him. They’ll probably welcome the chance to show their “independence” by rejecting him. Especially after tonight.
Yep SCOTUS possibility of stealing it back so would like to see Biden win more than PA
Unless Biden wins GA and NV or GA and AZ or all 3, then PAs 20 votes mean if it was reversed Trump would win. So unless Biden wins one of those 3 combinations theres a real risk of something happening with the SCOTUS I feel.
Nope.
270 to win.
Then it’s over.
Yes , perhaps I wasn't very clear in my words, I agree with that. I was responding more to the hypothetical situation of PA somehow being reversed (which I fully dont expect to happen) and what states were needed to keep Biden over 270 if that happened
This AZ count is maddening. Unlike the Midwest the votes left are far less homogenous, so Trump gets closer and closer and then Biden widens the gap by a couple of thousand. And you never know which will happen next.
450k votes left apparently.
And only 56k in it. Wonder how many days it'll take for them to count them.
Surprised CNN (John King) is making the mistake of saying Trump HAS to win Georgia to win the election. Have i missed something?
Think he is assuming Biden wins NV and AZ
I assume you mean OR, not AND.
But actually just thinking about it. After tonight, would Trump win on a 269-269 tie? Might the House decide, er, perhaps not? And go for Biden. Or even another random Republican if that's an option?
GA for Biden everything else Trump is 269/269
That ship has sailed.
I was talking hypothetically. If it happened would the House actually vote for him along party lines after tonight? I think not.
Unfortunately, in a contingent election the House (voting by state, don’t forget, which means a GOP majority) can only choose from the top three Electoral Vote recipients. So if the EC does split 269/269 the Republicans would have to choose between a deranged Trump or Biden. Of course the RNC could say to the Trump electors, “For the love of God, the guy’s gone nuts, please vote for some other Republican!” It’d only take one faithless Trump elector to give the House someone else to choose from.
Yep SCOTUS possibility of stealing it back so would like to see Biden win more than PA
Unless Biden wins GA and NV or GA and AZ or all 3, then PAs 20 votes mean if it was reversed Trump would win. So unless Biden wins one of those 3 combinations theres a real risk of something happening with the SCOTUS I feel.
Nope.
270 to win.
Then it’s over.
Yes , perhaps I wasn't very clear in my words, I agree with that. I was responding more to the hypothetical situation of PA somehow being reversed (which I fully dont expect to happen) and what states were needed to keep Biden over 270 if that happened
Okay see what you mean mate. Cheers for the reply.
If Trump does try to get this to the Supreme Court, I wonder what they will think of his antics? I know they are supposed to rule solely on the basis of the law as written, but having somebody got total batshit who could be in charge for another 4 years, be very hard to put that out of your mind.
Yup, and assuming the Dems have lost the Senate they don't really have to worry about the Dems advancing structurally. If the conservative majority is operating based on strategic partisan hackery rather than law then I think they just decline to take up any cases and leave everything to the states. That leaves the GOP base room to tell each other they woz robbed, which should be helpful in the mid-terms and potentially 2024, and hopefully at that point they'll get a nominee who's less of a loose cannon.
I think Biden wins GA by about 5K before extras and military
Good evening sir.
Thanks for the update.
Think @bigjohnowls has it slightly lower but same “ballpark” as these Americans say
That’s the ball game right there. 🙂
I’ve got nothing more than a hunch, but this could be one of the worst military votes for a GOP president for some time. There’s been numerous media stories of Trump insulting military past and serving, also the makeup of serving military may be very black, especially if their vote is registered to Georgia? What do you think? It will help 5K lead to,grow?
For all the talk in AZ Trump’s price has barely been shorter than 3. Now back out to 3.35.
Anyone got the inside track?
I think I heard or read somewhere Dem themselves reckon some very Trump counties declare next closing the gap, before Dem leaning Vegas finally declares. So to go back to your question, It may appear to close, but everyone betting knows Vegas is yet to declare, More Red Mirage out there on the desert.
I think Biden wins GA by about 5K before extras and military
Good evening sir.
Thanks for the update.
Think @bigjohnowls has it slightly lower but same “ballpark” as these Americans say
My betting post at 11am this morning was exactly 5k Biden win. His price went as high as 1.73 I was on at circa 1.6 I think 3k to 4k ahead after Mail ins
For all the talk in AZ Trump’s price has barely been shorter than 3. Now back out to 3.35.
Anyone got the inside track?
I think I heard or read somewhere Dem themselves reckon some very Trump counties declare next closing the gap, before Dem leaning Vegas finally declares. So to go back to your question, It may appear to close, but everyone betting knows Vegas is yet to declare, More Red Mirage out there on the desert.
This AZ count is maddening. Unlike the Midwest the votes left are far less homogenous, so Trump gets closer and closer and then Biden widens the gap by a couple of thousand. And you never know which will happen next.
450k votes left apparently.
And only 56k in it. Wonder how many days it'll take for them to count them.
For all the talk in AZ Trump’s price has barely been shorter than 3. Now back out to 3.35.
Anyone got the inside track?
I think I heard or read somewhere Dem themselves reckon some very Trump counties declare next closing the gap, before Dem leaning Vegas finally declares. So to go back to your question, It may appear to close, but everyone betting knows Vegas is yet to declare, More Red Mirage out there on the desert.
Am I getting the hang of this? 🙂
? Vegas isn’t in Arizona!
Yes. 🙀
I think I heard or read somewhere Dem themselves reckon some very Trump counties declare next closing the gap, before Dem leaning counties finally declares. So to go back to your question, It may appear to close, but everyone betting knows what is yet to declare, More Red Mirage out there on the desert.
EDITED BASED ON GEOGRAPHY MISTAKE, but the point is the same
This AZ count is maddening. Unlike the Midwest the votes left are far less homogenous, so Trump gets closer and closer and then Biden widens the gap by a couple of thousand. And you never know which will happen next.
450k votes left apparently.
And only 56k in it. Wonder how many days it'll take for them to count them.
For all the talk in AZ Trump’s price has barely been shorter than 3. Now back out to 3.35.
Anyone got the inside track?
I think I heard or read somewhere Dem themselves reckon some very Trump counties declare next closing the gap, before Dem leaning Vegas finally declares. So to go back to your question, It may appear to close, but everyone betting knows Vegas is yet to declare, More Red Mirage out there on the desert.
Am I getting the hang of this? 🙂
? Vegas isn’t in Arizona!
Yes. 🙀
I think I heard or read somewhere Dem themselves reckon some very Trump counties declare next closing the gap, before Dem leaning counties finally declares. So to go back to your question, It may appear to close, but everyone betting knows what is yet to declare, More Red Mirage out there on the desert.
EDITED BASED ON GEOGRAPHY MISTAKE, but the point is the same
Would you like to ask me about Nevada now? 🙃
Sure. How do you think the vote is going in Tucson?
Postal vote turnout is generally higher than on-the-day turnout because it's more convenient and something might crop up on election day to prevent people heading to the polling station etc.
It seems like Trump's strategy going back over months has been to discredit the postal voting system to lay the groundwork to challenge the legitimacy of a Biden win. But in doing so, by deterring his supporters from doing postal votes, has he actually been the architect of his own demise? Given the closeness of the results, if he hadn't dissuaded so many of his supporters from signing up for postal votes, could he have squeezed out a victory?
For all the talk in AZ Trump’s price has barely been shorter than 3. Now back out to 3.35.
Anyone got the inside track?
I think I heard or read somewhere Dem themselves reckon some very Trump counties declare next closing the gap, before Dem leaning Vegas finally declares. So to go back to your question, It may appear to close, but everyone betting knows Vegas is yet to declare, More Red Mirage out there on the desert.
Am I getting the hang of this? 🙂
? Vegas isn’t in Arizona!
Yes. 🙀
I think I heard or read somewhere Dem themselves reckon some very Trump counties declare next closing the gap, before Dem leaning counties finally declares. So to go back to your question, It may appear to close, but everyone betting knows what is yet to declare, More Red Mirage out there on the desert.
EDITED BASED ON GEOGRAPHY MISTAKE, but the point is the same
Would you like to ask me about Nevada now? 🙃
Sure. How do you think the vote is going in Tucson?
I know what you are doing to me there. I have lurked on this site on off many years. That’s some place in Star Wars isn’t it?
It was many years ago, I clearly remember being in a geography lesson, in a window seat, it was a windy day, I was watching the girls from my year group above playing tennis. I don’t remember anything else.
Back to the desert, I’m sure I heard the Trump favourable stuff would be added first, the Dem leaning stuff at the end in NV and AZ.
I have gone to bed was there 150k just come in as they promised? Did Biden only lose 11k on 150k? Genuine question my spreadsheet is downstairs!!
CNNs obsession with PA meant they only stayed on AZ a few seconds, just got the 11K figure but Im sure it wasnt 150k in total no. It wasnt like 80k to 70K much lower maybe 44 to 33 so perhaps 75K in total
Ok, I've had enough of guessing games. I've squared off the relevant markets and I'm going to bed.
My guess is that Biden wins Az, Pa and Geo, but loses NC narrowly.
Enjoy the fun and games!
Nite all.
Ah yes, NC.
The polls were very good for Biden and Cunningham there, especially in the last week of the campaign where there seemed to be momentum in Biden direction. I’m not entirely sure Trump has it. I did ask RCS earlier who said itdoes get closer and closer but probably not close enough.
Comments
Amusingly, he voted for Ronald Reagan... not in 1980/84 (although I expect he did then too), but posthumously, as a write in, on Tuesday!
Was just quoting CNN - I haven't been tracking the AZ running totals so can't be sure if they are new or whether they were referring to an earlier update.
Can GA flip please?
We do the same with "Asians ".
The postal votes are mainly Democrat, so a lot of people turning up to the polling place saying "I applied for a postal vote but didn't receive it" will also be Democrats.
Clayton County 5726 left will put him level
Gwinnet 4800 left will put him ahead by almost 2k
Laurens 1857 left could make it closer
Cobb favours Biden
Forsyth 50/50
Then over 18k provisional ballots and up to 9 k Military after that
But actually just thinking about it. After tonight, would Trump win on a 269-269 tie? Might the House decide, er, perhaps not? And go for Biden. Or even another random Republican if that's an option?
I may have misunderstood your post. Forgive me.
That ship has sailed.
That alone wipes out entire Trump lead
Under the Electoral Kindergarten, small states like Wyoming get proportionally more electors than large states. Wyoming gets one EV per 200,000 people (roughly), whereas California gets one EV per 700,000 people.
270 to win.
Then it’s over.
Then Biden takes GA and NV and the presidency!
They can still come in till 10/11/20
Thanks for the update.
Think @bigjohnowls has it slightly lower but same “ballpark” as these Americans say
GOP
5.5
GOP
3.25
Anyone got the inside track?
I’ve got nothing more than a hunch, but this could be one of the worst military votes for a GOP president for some time. There’s been numerous media stories of Trump insulting military past and serving, also the makeup of serving military may be very black, especially if their vote is registered to Georgia? What do you think? It will help 5K lead to,grow?
Am I getting the hang of this? 🙂
I think 3k to 4k ahead after Mail ins
I think I heard or read somewhere Dem themselves reckon some very Trump counties declare next closing the gap, before Dem leaning counties finally declares. So to go back to your question, It may appear to close, but everyone betting knows what is yet to declare, More Red Mirage out there on the desert.
EDITED BASED ON GEOGRAPHY MISTAKE, but the point is the same
Would you like to ask me about Nevada now? 🙃
Postal vote turnout is generally higher than on-the-day turnout because it's more convenient and something might crop up on election day to prevent people heading to the polling station etc.
It seems like Trump's strategy going back over months has been to discredit the postal voting system to lay the groundwork to challenge the legitimacy of a Biden win. But in doing so, by deterring his supporters from doing postal votes, has he actually been the architect of his own demise? Given the closeness of the results, if he hadn't dissuaded so many of his supporters from signing up for postal votes, could he have squeezed out a victory?
Given the other results it's hard to believe Trump could take Az. Would go again the general trend but....
GA
It was many years ago, I clearly remember being in a geography lesson, in a window seat, it was a windy day, I was watching the girls from my year group above playing tennis. I don’t remember anything else.
Back to the desert, I’m sure I heard the Trump favourable stuff would be added first, the Dem leaning stuff at the end in NV and AZ.
Also RCS said AZ would go Biden by 3%+
Hope that helps
Fun and games going on?
Trump: 42,276 (56.1%)
They still seem confident they will be right calling it for Biden apparently
I thought call threshold was 99.5% certain.
GOP to win AZ is 3.15 on Betfair - approx 30% chance!
My guess is that Biden wins Az, Pa and Geo, but loses NC narrowly.
Enjoy the fun and games!
Nite all.
The polls were very good for Biden and Cunningham there, especially in the last week of the campaign where there seemed to be momentum in Biden direction. I’m not entirely sure Trump has it. I did ask RCS earlier who said itdoes get closer and closer but probably not close enough.
Hmm. Maybe worth a flutter.