If the Arizona SoS is right (and they should be, right?) about the number of ballots left, and it's only 250-285k not 300-325k then that makes it harder for Trump to catch up.
One day there will be a shock result in a blue state and we won't notice for 3 weeks. Assuming those split as per the existing ones (though who knows, do we have any idea if they are mail/election day/etc?) Biden wins them about 2:1, gains another 1.5m on his national lead. That's worth about 1% assuming we end on 150m or so turnout. 51.5% for Biden, plus late counts in some other blue states. Hmm...52% is gonna be close.
Ok, I've had enough of guessing games. I've squared off the relevant markets and I'm going to bed.
My guess is that Biden wins Az, Pa and Geo, but loses NC narrowly.
Enjoy the fun and games!
Nite all.
Ah yes, NC.
The polls were very good for Biden and Cunningham there, especially in the last week of the campaign where there seemed to be momentum in Biden direction. I’m not entirely sure Trump has it. I did ask RCS earlier who said itdoes get closer and closer but probably not close enough.
One day there will be a shock result in a blue state and we won't notice for 3 weeks. Assuming those split as per the existing ones (though who knows, do we have any idea if they are mail/election day/etc?) Biden wins them about 2:1, gains another 1.5m on his national lead. That's worth about 1% assuming we end on 150m or so turnout. 51.5% for Biden, plus late counts in some other blue states. Hmm...52% is gonna be close.
California was a 100% mail election - there was no in person voting.
One day there will be a shock result in a blue state and we won't notice for 3 weeks. Assuming those split as per the existing ones (though who knows, do we have any idea if they are mail/election day/etc?) Biden wins them about 2:1, gains another 1.5m on his national lead. That's worth about 1% assuming we end on 150m or so turnout. 51.5% for Biden, plus late counts in some other blue states. Hmm...52% is gonna be close.
California was a 100% mail election - there was no in person voting.
Ok, I've had enough of guessing games. I've squared off the relevant markets and I'm going to bed.
My guess is that Biden wins Az, Pa and Geo, but loses NC narrowly.
Enjoy the fun and games!
Nite all.
Ah yes, NC.
The polls were very good for Biden and Cunningham there, especially in the last week of the campaign where there seemed to be momentum in Biden direction. I’m not entirely sure Trump has it. I did ask RCS earlier who said itdoes get closer and closer but probably not close enough.
Hmm. Maybe worth a flutter.
Yes, worth £5 or so
Thank you.
Are you still calling Arizona for Biden by as much as 3%?
And the Georgia result might be Biden wins by much more than 5K?
Ok, I've had enough of guessing games. I've squared off the relevant markets and I'm going to bed.
My guess is that Biden wins Az, Pa and Geo, but loses NC narrowly.
Enjoy the fun and games!
Nite all.
Ah yes, NC.
The polls were very good for Biden and Cunningham there, especially in the last week of the campaign where there seemed to be momentum in Biden direction. I’m not entirely sure Trump has it. I did ask RCS earlier who said itdoes get closer and closer but probably not close enough.
Hmm. Maybe worth a flutter.
Yes, worth £5 or so
Thank you.
Are you still calling Arizona for Biden by as much as 3%?
And the Georgia result might be Biden wins by much more than 5K?
I think the provisionals will add to Bidens total, but I guess we'll see tomorrow morning.
Morning all. Six hours sleep and PA crossover still not quite happened but very very close.
Meanwhile, can someone confirm the Senate tally for me? Kelly's win over McSally in Arizona now takes it to 48-48, right? That leaves 4: the two Georgia races which are almost certainly both going to January 5th runoffs. Then there's Alaska where Sullivan is ahead for the Republicans and North Carolina where Tillis leads Cunningham.
Although Sullivan and Tillis are likely to win those they're not gimme's but either way the Georgia run-offs will decide the Senate.
Biden's outperformance over Clinton in PA is all in the suburbs.
It was the reason I came back in on him at 262 ECVs and for all of CNN's rubbish first few hours of election coverage, John King was spot on when he said, 'to win the Presidency you have to win the suburbs.' In Florida, despite haemorrhaging latino votes, Biden was +5% over Clinton in the suburbs. If repeated it meant other states would come into play. It's why the Democrats are gaining in the Midwest, Georgia too.
A rapid coronavirus test at the heart of Boris Johnson’s mass-testing strategy missed more than 50% of positive cases in an Operation Moonshot pilot in Greater Manchester, the Guardian can reveal.
The 20-minute tests, on which the government has spent £323m for use with hospital and care home staff with no symptoms, identified only 46.7% of infections during a crucial trial in Manchester and Salford last month.
This means that many of those carrying Covid-19 were wrongly told they were free of the virus, potentially allowing them to infect others
A rapid coronavirus test at the heart of Boris Johnson’s mass-testing strategy missed more than 50% of positive cases in an Operation Moonshot pilot in Greater Manchester, the Guardian can reveal.
The 20-minute tests, on which the government has spent £323m for use with hospital and care home staff with no symptoms, identified only 46.7% of infections during a crucial trial in Manchester and Salford last month.
This means that many of those carrying Covid-19 were wrongly told they were free of the virus, potentially allowing them to infect others
Perhaps a better name would have been "Operation Hubris".
Trump traces it all back to Fox's calling of the state.
Doesn't Arizona going the other way actually undermine him in a way? The Trump argument is "it's funny how all these votes they are 'finding' are Democrat". But they're not, and demonstrably not if Arizona goes the other way - it depends on the local process and which type and location of votes are left to be counted towards the end.
Have you never watched Trump? He does not need facts. He just makes things up. Even the US networks are calling him a liar on air.
Not just the US networks - SKY news just said Trump isn't providing any evidence for his claims.
Comments
https://twitter.com/johnmyers/status/1324519897339060225?s=21
https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2020-election-results-coverage/
Are you still calling Arizona for Biden by as much as 3%?
And the Georgia result might be Biden wins by much more than 5K?
Meanwhile, can someone confirm the Senate tally for me? Kelly's win over McSally in Arizona now takes it to 48-48, right? That leaves 4: the two Georgia races which are almost certainly both going to January 5th runoffs. Then there's Alaska where Sullivan is ahead for the Republicans and North Carolina where Tillis leads Cunningham.
Although Sullivan and Tillis are likely to win those they're not gimme's but either way the Georgia run-offs will decide the Senate.
In retrospect, the Democrat decision to focus on the Midwest instead of Florida and Texas looks like a blinder.
The 20-minute tests, on which the government has spent £323m for use with hospital and care home staff with no symptoms, identified only 46.7% of infections during a crucial trial in Manchester and Salford last month.
This means that many of those carrying Covid-19 were wrongly told they were free of the virus, potentially allowing them to infect others
Why should it be ‘Wow’ to state the bleeding obvious ?
That has been the problem with the media for the last four years - they have largely reported the Trump narrative as though it’s unquestioned fact.