The betting moves further and further away from Trump – politicalbetting.com
The betting moves further and further away from Trump – politicalbetting.com
The chart above from Betfair’s main rival, Smarkets. neatly maps what’s been happening although as of the time of writing there’s been no new state going Biden’s way.
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I'm still struggling to see why it matters. Even if Trump and co are furious at Fox for calling the race there, even they cannot think it impacted anything?
I see from Eric Trump's feed that they are crowdfunding an election defence fund - they're not so stupid to spend their own money on this thing, even if they think they'll succeed.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1324468453105934336
But if the State's law is that ballots received in the week after the election (but postmarked before) are valid, then that's the State's law.
Ironic, really, that historical voting by mail was largely older Republicans, and these late arriving valid rules are mostly in traditionally Republican States like North Carolina.
Has TSE been moonlighting as a headline writer for the Metro?
There are many laws which I think are silly, or even bad, but which are still valid laws. And they all knew what the law was going into it and in the USA challenging laws as improper well ahead of time seems pretty easy.
@rcs1000 re what you said.
First, I'm not as convinced as you that AZ is in the bag for Biden. I know you predict 3-4% but he is less than 2% up.
Second, re GA, it will depend on the margin. For it to be uncontestable, I think Biden would have to win by at least 10K and even then I think the Republicans would find ways to disqualify some votes (I'm working on the premise they are going to do everything they can to not declare Biden the winner).
Suspect it won't be a thread header because you know the betting event in America.
But don't take it personally, I've got pieces by Cyclefree, Alastair Meeks, and Casino Royale unpublished for days.
But read this thread, it'll inform you a lot.
https://twitter.com/Ike_Saul/status/1324435797374808066
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/05/upshot/arizona-election-call.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage
Trumpworld very anxious right now about losing fair and square.
P/S We seem to be living in a bipolar age: Roughly 50/50 for Brexit, roughly 55/50 for president, roughly 50/50 for IQs in 2 or 3 figures.
1) In the US, it's pretty standard for the postmark to be the determining date for whether something mailed has been mailed on time, e.g. if you mail your mortgage or credit card payment on the due date, that normally means you've complied with your contract terms and can't be penalized. Obviously in practice after a week or so, the bank's going to assume you've missed the payment and apply a late charge, but if your payment does then turn up after being delayed and the postmark is the due date, you can get the charge removed.
I don't know why the US has this general rule (there must be some historical reason) but this isn't something special just for elections.
2) Yes, some of the counting seems to be taking excruciatingly long times, but don't forget it's not just the Presidential race on the ballot, but at a minimum the local House race, and in the vast majority of places one or more state house races, local elections, propositions/referenda and more. Counting, especially resolving anomalies, means having to check the ballot for the specific race you're interested in etc. In practice most places use voting machines or more commonly optical scanners, but you still have to separate out and tabulate the separate races. My ballot had President/VP, House Representative, State Senator, State Representative, a couple of judgeships and District Attorney.
Now the UK gives the voter a separate ballot paper for each election, but that's not really practical for more than two or three simultaneous elections, and if I recall correctly, the UK has previously delayed EP or local elections by a month when they occur with other elections to avoid this issue.
...someone has posted that photo from Bozo's count over on the Rail Forums US Election thread.
Those numbers are in line with earlier.
They are just excruciatingly slow at counting.
Trump lead now 90k.
Thoughts @MrEd ?
Cases by specimen date
Cases by specimen date, scaled to 100K population
R derived from cases
GA just updated!
Lead 9,525
In Georgia cases are back of upwards for their 3rd peak. Deaths from the second peak already bottoming off and about to head up. A much smaller lag between cases and deaths than for the 2nd peak.
There is months before a competent adult gets to helm the Federal response to this. It will be carnage in America over winter.
https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1324421573537865734
"Michelle Malkin, the conservative pundit who has been exiled from some Trump circles for her fringe views..."
by cases
by hospital admissions
270 to win.
Then it's all over.
That's it. Trump is done.
Biden wins Pennsylvania and Arizona. Nevada too probably.
Georgia is a genuine toss up but I maintain my view that Biden will win it c. 5,000-7,5000
North Carolina Trump (probably)
In a few hours the networks will call Biden for the Presidency.
Yeh, right.
Are you so dismal in real life?
Almost as if taking action has an effect.
UK Coronavirus deaths today are now shown as having totalled a tragically high figure of 378 and clearly, very sadly, appear likely to head higher. The only slightly comforting news is that the number of new cases today is shown as having been 24,141 and still, therefore, remaining in that 20,000 - 25,000 band where it had been now for some days, representing so far at least a somewhat slower growth rate than in some other European countries. This may of course be due to a time lag factor as regards the second wave of the disease.
I suspect the Trump strategy is to get as close to 270 as they can so that the outcome of the election essentially becomes about one state being flipped on a legal ruling.
They seem to think NC is theirs (many on here disagree but no one in the Biden camp seems to be aggressively pushing NC as a win or that Cunningham has won the Senate). That gets them to 232.
Key will be Arizona. If they win AZ - a big if but it's possible - they get to 243.
If GA awards its electors to Trump, he is at 259. I agree it's a high risk strategy but if it is coming down to a few hundred votes a la Florida in 2000, they might be tempted to try it.
At that point, Trump is 11 away from 270 i.e if he can get a favourable ruling on either PA (where there is a SC case sitting) or MI (where the Supreme Court is Republican), then it
One thing to note - even though Trump has been banging on about vote fraud in his tweets, none of his usual critics in the Republican party such as Ben Nasse or even the likes of Susan Collins have called for him to tone it down and said he is fundamentally wrong. Put bluntly - and I had mentioned in a post pre-election - there is a large part of the Republican party establishment who truly believe that VBM was an attempt by the Democrats to steal the election, and not just your pro-Trump types.
And as for the furlough, the Torties have lost all credibility as unionists by refusing it to everyone from Welsh to Yorkshiremen (NB: not devolved nation [edit]) for so long, till their precious SE was deemed to need it. It will not be forgotten.
1.03
https://twitter.com/darrengrimes_/status/1324401735041953798
Back in the days before Dems tacked left and GOP to the right, when the South voted Dem, and their leaders like Wallace stood in doorways, what made someone GOP and what made someone Democrat? Truman and Eisenhower for example, what made them decide to stand for the parties they did?
Like I said last night there are some serious tensions there and splits between the party officials and the Trump coterie.
I wouldn't be surprised frankly if they find enough votes to put Perdue over the line at just over 50% and so avoid a second runoff.
They would not just be stealing an election but American democracy itself, Trump would be leader for life if this happens.