I see even in deep Red Wyoming 2 counties went for Biden (1 more than for Hilary), and one by 38%. I wonder if that's the fewest counties for one of the parties in any state (given it is very low population state).
Doubtful. Delaware has only 3 counties.
Blimey, I knew it was a small state but even so. Even Rhode Island has more.
Kamala Harris was a shit choice for VP. I reckon she cost the Democrats a lot of ground.
I really do think that's absolute nonsense.
She was a safe choice who performed reasonably well in the VP debate, made no significant slip ups, campaigned with the required energy, and had fairly good favourability ratings.
VP choices don't win elections. Sometimes they can be a major drag on the ticket (Eagleton,briefly, and Palin, eventually). But there's no basis at all for saying Harris was anything like that. Sometimes, in a very close election, they might help you over the line (Johnson). But overwhelmingly they are chosen on the basis of "do no harm". That was true of Harris, and she did no harm.
And I'd say Pence was a sensible VP choice on exactly the same basis (and Kaine was for Clinton).
Nah. She's a Queen of Wokeness - see the totally stupid tweet she posted at the weekend that riled many - and people would have been worried she'd be steering behind the scenes and could take over as President during Biden's term of office. It's actually very similar to the concerns people had of Palin taking over from McCain in 2008.
At least in Palin's case they would have had valid cause!
This seems like an excellent result for the GOP. Hold the senate, no threat to scotus, and well placed for 2022 midterms ahead of 2024 after 4 years of a lame duck Biden presidency. Trump may call fraud but I doubt he will find many in the GOP elite backing him on that.
Yes. And Dems also lost ground in the House too.
But, British coverage just wants to talk about how Biden has won the most voters ever.
Kamala Harris was a shit choice for VP. I reckon she cost the Democrats a lot of ground.
No idea why she was selected.
Because the Dems want to deliver a black woman President - but know one would never get elected in her own right?
Well Biden said he was going to select a woman well in advance, which shouldn't have been necessary, but it's not clear who would have been a better choice even if he hadn't done that. She comes across well, is clearly competent, and brought no negatives for Trump to campaign on.
I can see things not to like about her from the perspective of a political nerd, but not from an ordinary voter.
Unless you just mean racial and gender bias, that is....
48.1% of the national vote is way above what the polls were saying. 48.5% might have been enough. But it's not that, so he will have to vacate the White House.
This seems like an excellent result for the GOP. Hold the senate, no threat to scotus, and well placed for 2022 midterms ahead of 2024 after 4 years of a lame duck Biden presidency. Trump may call fraud but I doubt he will find many in the GOP elite backing him on that.
Yes. And Dems also lost ground in the House too.
But, British coverage just wants to talk about how Biden has won the most voters ever.
Well, it's the headline news. I doubt most non-anoraks are mentally ready to hear about the implications of a continued split Congress etc.
Kamala Harris was a shit choice for VP. I reckon she cost the Democrats a lot of ground.
I really do think that's absolute nonsense.
She was a safe choice who performed reasonably well in the VP debate, made no significant slip ups, campaigned with the required energy, and had fairly good favourability ratings.
VP choices don't win elections. Sometimes they can be a major drag on the ticket (Eagleton,briefly, and Palin, eventually). But there's no basis at all for saying Harris was anything like that. Sometimes, in a very close election, they might help you over the line (Johnson). But overwhelmingly they are chosen on the basis of "do no harm". That was true of Harris, and she did no harm.
And I'd say Pence was a sensible VP choice on exactly the same basis (and Kaine was for Clinton).
Nah. She's a Queen of Wokeness - see the totally stupid tweet she posted at the weekend that riled many - and people would have been worried she'd be steering behind the scenes and could take over as President during Biden's term of office. It's actually very similar to the concerns people had of Palin taking over from McCain in 2008.
Thay's why she lost. Should have appointed Dom and Matthew as race advisors.
Remeber all the way back in 2018 where everyone agreed it was a terrible night for the Dems and then when all the votes were counted it was a blue wave.
And Trump supporters who attended superspreader events are going to start to get sick, so just maybe they will understand it
As soon as Biden takes over America will be going into a national lockdown I'd think? Might allow everything calm down for a couple of months perhaps?
I can't see that happening.
Firstly, this is essentially a state matter, and Biden can be supportive or discouraging of states and cities where there are problems, but isn't going to pile in feet first with a national lockdown (and the US is big and varied - it isn't the UK).
Secondly, it's a bad look to be that authoritarian and feeds into Republicans' criticism of him.
Thirdly, Biden is fortunate in that a vaccine roll-out probably will be at the early stages when he comes in.
Finally, he doesn't have the Senate majority to force through a huge stimulus package to counterbalance the economic impact.
Instead, I think he'll be more supportive of Governors wanting and needing to be more restrictive due to specific conditions.
Remeber all the way back in 2018 where everyone agreed it was a terrible night for the Dems and then when all the votes were counted it was a blue wave.
Crazy times, never see the like of that again
The beauty of this is that all the top stuff happened during the UK day. I'm glad I only stayed up to 1am now.
I said 60K earlier this morning. Looks like Alistair was on the nail. We will see.
If this is right Jen O'Malley Dillon deserves the Nobel Peace prize, held her ground by not flooding TX and FL despite various siren calls to do so and focused resolutely on rebuilding the wall around the Great Lakes.
I've a soft spot for Pennsylvania. My grandad and his wife designed their farmhouse and barn with the help of an itinerant carpenter in the late 1800s. They used hickory sourced from their woods and milled down the valley. Both still stand and appear in good shape. If you look in either of two directions you can see mountain ridges. Their rising spring never dries up.
I see Nate Silver is now classing Arizona and Nevada as "Likely Biden", Pennsylvania as "Lean Biden", Georgia as "Tossup" (or "Lean Biden" if forced to choose) and North Carolina as "Likely Trump".
48.1% of the national vote is way above what the polls were saying. 48.5% might have been enough. But it's not that, so he will have to vacate the White House.
Trump will end up four points behind Biden because so much of California has not been counted yet
This seems like an excellent result for the GOP. Hold the senate, no threat to scotus, and well placed for 2022 midterms ahead of 2024 after 4 years of a lame duck Biden presidency. Trump may call fraud but I doubt he will find many in the GOP elite backing him on that.
Yes. And Dems also lost ground in the House too.
But, British coverage just wants to talk about how Biden has won the most voters ever.
All the British care about, reasonably, is that Trump is gone. The rest is just for the Americans to worry about. It won't really impact us.
This seems like an excellent result for the GOP. Hold the senate, no threat to scotus, and well placed for 2022 midterms ahead of 2024 after 4 years of a lame duck Biden presidency. Trump may call fraud but I doubt he will find many in the GOP elite backing him on that.
Yes. And Dems also lost ground in the House too.
But, British coverage just wants to talk about how Biden has won the most voters ever.
I do agree with this , I think when the dust has settled and Donald has been led away, the Rs will sit back and look rather pleased with the overall picture.
I'm no fan of Fox News but it should be noted they haven't gone out of their way to help Trump - calling AZ well before other networks and calling WI and MI in line with other networks.
They could have created more mood music of uncertainty in these states - they have chosen not to.
I said 60K earlier this morning. Looks like Alistair was on the nail. We will see.
If this is right Jen O'Malley Dillon deserves the Nobel Peace prize, held her ground by not flooding TX and FL despite various siren calls to do so and focused resolutely on rebuilding the wall around the Great Lakes.
Yes. I said Biden is lucky but maybe it was a masterstroke. The Democrats have won this in the midwest. Some of the results are close, but that's how they've done it.
Fox want to keep a media toehold in Biden's Presidency
The guy who does their numbers and has been for years was interviewed weeks ago by I think The Atlantic (but don't quote me on that bit) - it was very clear that he has always played it exactly fairly as the numbers dictate and there was no process or likely process for management or whatever to interfere.
I see even in deep Red Wyoming 2 counties went for Biden (1 more than for Hilary), and one by 38%. I wonder if that's the fewest counties for one of the parties in any state (given it is very low population state).
Doubtful. Delaware has only 3 counties.
Blimey, I knew it was a small state but even so. Even Rhode Island has more.
Fun fact: Delaware has the fewest counties of any state in the union.
Fox want to keep a media toehold in Biden's Presidency
The guy who does their numbers and has been for years was interviewed weeks ago by I think The Atlantic (but don't quote me on that bit) - it was very clear that he has always played it exactly fairly as the numbers dictate and there was no process or likely process for management or whatever to interfere.
That's good.
Maybe if you take Sean Hannity out of the equation Fox is palatable?!
This seems like an excellent result for the GOP. Hold the senate, no threat to scotus, and well placed for 2022 midterms ahead of 2024 after 4 years of a lame duck Biden presidency. Trump may call fraud but I doubt he will find many in the GOP elite backing him on that.
Yes. And Dems also lost ground in the House too.
But, British coverage just wants to talk about how Biden has won the most voters ever.
I do agree with this , I think when the dust has settled and Donald has been led away, the Rs will sit back and look rather pleased with the overall picture.
Johnson left exposed, populism is dying and sensible moderate politics is back on the menu. Go Keir!
That's your conclusion when what the polls said would be an easy landslide yesterday turned into a painfully ground-out nailbiter? I'm more confident than ever that we'll be able to hold off Sir Borealot in 2024.
Did the polls say that, though? Nate Silver (who has spent longer thinking about this sort of thing than most of us) was pretty clear; the gap between Biden landslide and nailbiter was wafer-thin, and Trump had a non-trivial chance of winning;
For all we like to think about who's up and who's down, many results fall within MOE. Take the Conservatives between '79 and '92; their vote share hardly changed across 4 elections which ranged from a mega-landslide to a just about workable majority. Or compare '17 and '19. Johnson got 43.6%, May got 42.4%. Yet one is seen as an electoral genius and the other as a disaster.
I'm no fan of Fox News but it should be noted they haven't gone out of their way to help Trump - calling AZ well before other networks and calling WI and MI in line with other networks.
They could have created more mood music of uncertainty in these states - they have chosen not to.
Yup – they are always really fair dealers on election night.
48.1% of the national vote is way above what the polls were saying. 48.5% might have been enough. But it's not that, so he will have to vacate the White House.
Trump will end up four points behind Biden because so much of California has not been counted yet
I'm no fan of Fox News but it should be noted they haven't gone out of their way to help Trump - calling AZ well before other networks and calling WI and MI in line with other networks.
They could have created more mood music of uncertainty in these states - they have chosen not to.
If he's going to launch his own TV offering post presidency then no need for the network to suck up to him too much.
As a former Corbyn supporter, I think 2019 here and 2020 in the USA proves to me beyond doubt that what the public want is competence and good governance and something that won't scare them. Go on Keir, I have faith
This seems like an excellent result for the GOP. Hold the senate, no threat to scotus, and well placed for 2022 midterms ahead of 2024 after 4 years of a lame duck Biden presidency. Trump may call fraud but I doubt he will find many in the GOP elite backing him on that.
Yes. And Dems also lost ground in the House too.
But, British coverage just wants to talk about how Biden has won the most voters ever.
All the British care about, reasonably, is that Trump is gone. The rest is just for the Americans to worry about. It won't really impact us.
Senate matters for trade deals and foreign policy.
Kamala Harris was a shit choice for VP. I reckon she cost the Democrats a lot of ground.
No idea why she was selected.
Because the Dems want to deliver a black woman President - but know one would never get elected in her own right?
Well Biden said he was going to select a woman well in advance, which shouldn't have been necessary, but it's not clear who would have been a better choice even if he hadn't done that. She comes across well, is clearly competent, and brought no negatives for Trump to campaign on.
I can see things not to like about her from the perspective of a political nerd, but not from an ordinary voter.
Unless you just mean racial and gender bias, that is....
48.1% of the national vote is way above what the polls were saying. 48.5% might have been enough. But it's not that, so he will have to vacate the White House.
Trump will end up four points behind Biden because so much of California has not been counted yet
48.1% of the national vote is way above what the polls were saying. 48.5% might have been enough. But it's not that, so he will have to vacate the White House.
It's going down way below that. The West coast is just getting warmed up.
As a former Corbyn supporter, I think 2019 here and 2020 in the USA proves to me beyond doubt that what the public want is competence and good governance and something that won't scare them. Go on Keir, I have faith
Right, I've made a very small sum off small stakes, mainly on R hold FL, but it's cost me about eight hours' sleep and two unproductive days at work.
Very disappointed to learn that the Banter Era is now effectively over, but hopeful that a blue WH and a red Senate makes for a low-tax, low stimulus USA for the next few years.
I'm ducking out of PB again until there's another biggie. All the best.
Kamala Harris was a shit choice for VP. I reckon she cost the Democrats a lot of ground.
Possibly so. A bit too Black, Indian, Female, and Californian for the swing voters.
She may well be a very good VP though. She seems quite feisty and intelligent.
Campaigning skill correlates very poorly, perhaps even inversely, with skill at governing.
I think the bigotry stuff is an excuse. Obama had no problems there.
Democrats really need to STOP seeing everything through the prism of race, gender and sexuality.
It really pisses a lot of people off and is BS.
If you think racial, sexuality and gender are no longer issues arousing prejudice in America, then perhaps you need to get out of your bubble and meet more ordinary folk.
As a former Corbyn supporter, I think 2019 here and 2020 in the USA proves to me beyond doubt that what the public want is competence and good governance and something that won't scare them. Go on Keir, I have faith
Good luck Keir. Will be 2nd 2024
Technically, we can come second in 2024 and still become the government, quite possible in that case we have a government which over 50% voted for and then we can have a proper PR system implemented.
Honestly for me in 2024, that is the priority, ending FPTP.
Kamala Harris was a shit choice for VP. I reckon she cost the Democrats a lot of ground.
Possibly so. A bit too Black, Indian, Female, and Californian for the swing voters.
She may well be a very good VP though. She seems quite feisty and intelligent.
Campaigning skill correlates very poorly, perhaps even inversely, with skill at governing.
I think the bigotry stuff is an excuse. Obama had no problems there.
Democrats really need to STOP seeing everything through the prism of race, gender and sexuality.
It really pisses a lot of people off and is BS.
A majority of Americans have voted for them.
But barely scraped through where it mattered and went backwards in other areas. And don't forget Hillary won the national vote too.
Humility is needed.
So what? Your double standards are immense. When Trump won on tiny margins whilst losing the popular vote it was all about the “silent majority” which the “liberal elite” is out of touch with. And yet when Biden (probably) wins on small margins but with the most votes in history, its not “maybe these Trump supporters should seek common ground with city folk” its “the left should stop talking about race and gender”.
We discussed this last night, BOTH sides need to have some humility and seek common ground.
I said 60K earlier this morning. Looks like Alistair was on the nail. We will see.
I feel a lot of people though I was taking the piss when I said Biden by 180k a few hours ago.
At about 3am this morning during the PB Zoom session I said that I thought commentators were writing off Biden too soon and the betting markets were overshooting. Virtually rhe only right call I've made in this election.
Comments
We don't need weeks of speculation about faithless electors.
Plenty of Philly mail to arrive.
But, British coverage just wants to talk about how Biden has won the most voters ever.
I can see things not to like about her from the perspective of a political nerd, but not from an ordinary voter.
Unless you just mean racial and gender bias, that is....
Crazy times, never see the like of that again
Firstly, this is essentially a state matter, and Biden can be supportive or discouraging of states and cities where there are problems, but isn't going to pile in feet first with a national lockdown (and the US is big and varied - it isn't the UK).
Secondly, it's a bad look to be that authoritarian and feeds into Republicans' criticism of him.
Thirdly, Biden is fortunate in that a vaccine roll-out probably will be at the early stages when he comes in.
Finally, he doesn't have the Senate majority to force through a huge stimulus package to counterbalance the economic impact.
Instead, I think he'll be more supportive of Governors wanting and needing to be more restrictive due to specific conditions.
She may well be a very good VP though. She seems quite feisty and intelligent.
Campaigning skill correlates very poorly, perhaps even inversely, with skill at governing.
https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@39.9506175,-78.5038855,3a,75y,137.38h,96.85t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1s-PNHGiBi8AE__aY4yNr1yQ!2e0!7i3328!8i1664?hl=en
This Georgia result is likely to be fantastically close. Biden is closing.
They could have created more mood music of uncertainty in these states - they have chosen not to.
I just googled that.
Maybe if you take Sean Hannity out of the equation Fox is palatable?!
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1324108206801563650?s=21
Democrats really need to STOP seeing everything through the prism of race, gender and sexuality.
It really pisses a lot of people off and is BS.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo
For all we like to think about who's up and who's down, many results fall within MOE. Take the Conservatives between '79 and '92; their vote share hardly changed across 4 elections which ranged from a mega-landslide to a just about workable majority. Or compare '17 and '19. Johnson got 43.6%, May got 42.4%. Yet one is seen as an electoral genius and the other as a disaster.
Yup – they are always really fair dealers on election night.
Edit: John King on CNN now.
Humility is needed.
It will be very close this.
Capitulation coming soon!
Lockdown extension!
I thought May was terrible but this is just rude.
Very disappointed to learn that the Banter Era is now effectively over, but hopeful that a blue WH and a red Senate makes for a low-tax, low stimulus USA for the next few years.
I'm ducking out of PB again until there's another biggie. All the best.
Honestly for me in 2024, that is the priority, ending FPTP.
We discussed this last night, BOTH sides need to have some humility and seek common ground.
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/524503-centrist-democrats-talk-leadership-changes-after-negative-election-results?amp#click=https://t.co/x1QzSgT7Jb