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Biden moves to an 84% chance of victory on the exchanges as the scale of his likely victory becomes

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  • GIN1138 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Over the last 24 hours I have been nothing but calmness and sereneness personified.

    I genuinely have as to me it seems the perfect result with Biden winning, Trump gone, but also Biden restricted by the Senate while the Republicans hopefully can find a sane candidate to go forward
    Trump 2024. Only question is which Trump.
    An all female Trump v Harris contest?
    Biden won't last the full term IMO.

    He'll either die in office or his senility will become so obvious he'll have to be replaced in the first year. Harris is likely to be POTUS for at least two or three years before 2024 so she'll be the incumbent POTUS with quite a long record to defend.

    Will be interesting.
    Ghoulish.
    Realistic. Harris will be President.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    If the Democrats are smart, they will start working from day 1 on a plan to win in 2024, that means appealing to all of those that have trended away, e.g. Hispanics

    Biden isn't over the line yet. It's going to be down to PA.
  • Scott_xP said:
    Fascism. You gotta call it when you see it.

    Incredibly around 45-50% of Americans welcome it.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited November 2020
    Tracking PA mail ballots. Something odd has happened. Huntingdon County has cleared it's 4600 mail ballot back long but it's reported vote hasn't changed.

    So either they had already counted it and it the mail data lagged
    or
    Their vote totals haven't been updated yet.

    If it's A ) then that's really bad for Biden as I think this has happened across a bunch of Counties
    If it's B ) then it's neutral.

    Incidentally when I try to go to the main Pennsylvania Vote REsults website I get redirected to a general voter info/how to vote page. Does this happen to anyone else?

    https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/
  • With the latest updated votes in Pennsylvania, Trump’s raw lead drops below 400,000 votes. If the Secretary of State’s website accurately reflects outstanding mail ballots, there are roughly 1 million mail ballots still out, which excludes those that arrived most recently.

    538 blog
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,481

    stodge said:

    kyf_100 said:


    In terms of Trump's base, I was quite shocked to read that Trump has made inroads into every other ethnicity while losing the support of white men.

    I had started to see him as a white supremacist, based on his comments while in power. But the polls seem to contradict this.

    It's something I'm having trouble understanding. Trump's base isn't just stronger. It appears to be more diverse.

    The loss of support among white men has been evident for ages in the polling. My theory on this isn't perhaps very original - I think some white men couldn't vote for Hilary Clinton because she was a woman but could vote for the male Joe Biden.

    It would be ironic if a progressive ticket won because of the votes of misogynists but that's politics for you.

    As for Trump's improved performance among Hispanics and African-Americans, I find that harder to resolve. There is an appeal to generations who have voted Democrat and seemingly not nothing out of it - it's not unlike the conundrum Labour has faced over here.

    The bit I struggle with is so much of what Trump promised in 2016 and has promised since hasn't been delivered. No one seems able or willing to hold him account for what he hasn't done (quite apart from what he has) and why he hasn't done it.
    Trump’s success in Florida with Latino voters is interesting. GOP have clearly managed to sow the seeds of doubt about OMG SOCIALISM with people who fled Cubs/Venezuela.

    Dems need to think seriously about their appeal with this demographic - Beto O’Rourke speaking 8th grade Spanish isn’t going to cut it.
    On Twitter @thegrugq, who is a very astute infosec/cyberwar expert, was saying that there's been a huge amount of targetted Spanish-language material on Facebook etc and nothing to counter it. For English-speaking voters you have a lot of sources of information, so when you see an ad saying Trump would defund the police, it's countered by Biden himself and potentially other media saying lol no, Trump made that up. But if you don't follow English media it may be harder to get that balance.
    Those evil Republicans, speaking to the electorate.
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 597
    edited November 2020

    Over the last 24 hours I have been nothing but calmness and sereneness personified.

    I genuinely have as to me it seems the perfect result with Biden winning, Trump gone, but also Biden restricted by the Senate while the Republicans hopefully can find a sane candidate to go forward
    Trump 2024. Only question is which Trump.

    Donald will run again if his health allows, he still has a vice-like grip on the GOP base which no rival can compete with.

    Presuming Trump loses then Ohio breaks its winning streak since 1964 and the whole concept of bellwether states (and landslides) is effectively obsolete now given how polarised the US has become. Nowadays when states switch from one party to another the change is usually permanent (e.g. how Virginia and West Virginia have swapped sides).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,101
    edited November 2020
    Biggest winner from this election...China.

    Big Don and his tariffs will be gone, so back to business as normal with no waking up and finding the US have decided to change the rules again. Sleepy Joe won't stand up to them and will be busy making America less competitive with higher wages and focus on environmental regulations, but will get bogged down with the senate against him, so not really any progress.

    While the population will be split and I don't see an end to the disturbances.
  • Biden due to speak shortly
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    If the Democrats are smart, they will start working from day 1 on a plan to win in 2024, that means appealing to all of those that have trended away, e.g. Hispanics

    Biden isn't over the line yet. It's going to be down to PA.
    It may not be down to Pa.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209
    edited November 2020

    Biggest winner from this election...China.

    Big Don and his tariffs will be gone, so back to business as normal. Sleepy Joe won't stand up to them and will be busy making America less competitive with higher wages and focus on environmental regulations, but will get bogged down with the senate against him.

    While the population will be split and I don't see an end to the disturbances.

    President Trump already killed almost all the tariffs. It was done quietly, and without any fanfare, but pretty much all the punitive stuff has been revoked already. (Munchin told him that it would be bad for the economy around the Holiday season.)
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    edited November 2020

    Biggest winner from this election...China.

    Big Don and his tariffs will be gone, so back to business as normal. Sleepy Joe won't stand up to them and will be busy making America less competitive with higher wages and focus on environmental regulations, but will get bogged down with the senate against him.

    While the population will be split and I don't see an end to the disturbances.

    To be fair it's been a long term trend for a while. 2016 and now 2020 has just accelerated it.

    USA is falling. China is rising. New era is nearly upon us...
  • GIN1138 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Over the last 24 hours I have been nothing but calmness and sereneness personified.

    I genuinely have as to me it seems the perfect result with Biden winning, Trump gone, but also Biden restricted by the Senate while the Republicans hopefully can find a sane candidate to go forward
    Trump 2024. Only question is which Trump.
    An all female Trump v Harris contest?
    Biden won't last the full term IMO.

    He'll either die in office or his senility will become so obvious he'll have to be replaced in the first year. Harris is likely to be POTUS for at least two or three years before 2024 so she'll be the incumbent POTUS with quite a long record to defend.

    Will be interesting.
    Ghoulish.
    Biden explained, without notes (it was a question after a speech) the scientific difference between different types of potential vaccine model under development.

    Trump misremembered the words "man, woman, TV, camera" and recognised a drawing of an elephant.

    Bizarre obsession people have with calling Biden senile.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    If the Democrats are smart, they will start working from day 1 on a plan to win in 2024, that means appealing to all of those that have trended away, e.g. Hispanics

    Biden isn't over the line yet. It's going to be down to PA.
    Yes, NV is wobbly as all hell.

    It's frankly ridiculous that they haven't been counting there today.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    These Trump lawsuits in PA are extraordinary. If they actually succeeded they would invalidate the whole election. Presumably even if they were valid they would be chucked out on the grounds that they should have been filed weeks ago?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Chris said:

    Mal557 said:

    stodge said:

    I was having a look at turnout numbers.

    In Alabama, 2,123,372 voted in 2016 and 2,279,481 this time which is a 7.4% increase in votes cast.

    In Ohio, 5.496.487 voted in 2016 but it's likely something like 6,270,000 votes will be counted this time which would be a 12.4% increase in the number of votes.

    In Wisconsin, 2,976,150 voted in 2016 and 3,297.137 votes have been counted this time which is a 9.7% increase.

    Assume 10% for Pennsylvania and you'd be expecting around 6,782,000 votes to be cast.

    So far, according to the BBC results, 5,775,174 votes have been cast so there could well be another million votes out there. if the remaining million votes split about 3:1 for Biden he could still win the state but that's the size of the task.

    That's pretty how much how I see PA. I think there was a number given earlier of 1.2 million votes left. He will win 3 to 1 in a lot of places maybe even higher in Philli. But my worry is that there are enough Trump counties in PA with votes still to be counted that even if Biden wins the postal votes it wont be 3 to 1 there so he will fall short
    The NYT is currently showing Trump with a 6.5% lead, with 82% reported. So to draw level, Biden would need a 29.6% lead in the remaining votes. That's a lot less than the 41.9% lead for mail ballots based on party registration.
    Trump lead now down to 5.9%; required Biden lead to 28.8%.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662

    Mal557 said:

    MikeL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Trump can't win without Nevada, so unclear why you can better odds on him there than for the Presidency,

    I guess he could get PA + AZ.
    I think AZs gone for Trump , though not called by most, AP and Fox called it early and it seems that way , but in this election,,,,,who knows
    From my understanding after having read a bit more of this, I think Biden is in the clear in AZ. The party identification of the votes remaining to be counted skews republican, but there have been a lot of such voters who have actually voted Democrat in AZ (McCain effect?). So in all likelihood the gap will tighten but it won’t be enough.

    Nevada though, I am really unsure about.
    Hopefully later we will get the number of total votes still not counted in NV, it seems that will be announced later this evening NV time. We wont get the counted vote numbers until tomorrow morning NV time , they have already said that.
    But once we know the numbers still to be counted (factoring in they have already confirmed there are very few late mail votes to be counted in the next few days) it will give us an idea of how much of that 8000 lead Trump may be able to reduce if at all and if theres a chance he could overtake it. If i
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited November 2020
    Also reading news reports about more and more coincidentally Red Pennsylvania counties who are not counting mail-ballots until they get a court ruling saying they can.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    Alistair said:

    Also reading news reports about more and more coincidentally Red Pennsylvania counties who are not counting mail-ballots until they get a court ruling saying they can.

    Its pretty clear this was Trumps game plan all along , its a joke and wrong but totally in character with this guy. I wonder what moderate Rs are thinking
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    edited November 2020
    alex_ said:

    These Trump lawsuits in PA are extraordinary. If they actually succeeded they would invalidate the whole election. Presumably even if they were valid they would be chucked out on the grounds that they should have been filed weeks ago?

    What would happen if the election was invalidated? Re-run? Dear god nooooooooooooooo!!!!! :D
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,481

    Scott_xP said:
    Fascism. You gotta call it when you see it.

    Incredibly around 45-50% of Americans welcome it.
    I can't actually read the email from that screenshot.
  • Alistair said:

    Also reading news reports about more and more coincidentally Red Pennsylvania counties who are not counting mail-ballots until they get a court ruling saying they can.

    Storing them safely next to the incinerator are they?
  • rcs1000 said:

    Trump can't win without Nevada, so unclear why you can better odds on him there than for the Presidency,

    he can win without Nevada, but he would need Arizona or Michigan instead, along with PA, NC, GA.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Biggest winner from this election...China.

    Big Don and his tariffs will be gone, so back to business as normal. Sleepy Joe won't stand up to them and will be busy making America less competitive with higher wages and focus on environmental regulations, but will get bogged down with the senate against him.

    While the population will be split and I don't see an end to the disturbances.

    To be fair it's been a long term trend for a while. 2016 and now 2020 has just accelerated it.

    USA is falling. China is rising. New era is nearly upon us...
    It is, but this will be another 4 years of a poor leader without the power to get things done. Trump would have been worse.l obviously. But a narrow Biden win is sub par result.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    Alistair said:

    Also reading news reports about more and more coincidentally Red Pennsylvania counties who are not counting mail-ballots until they get a court ruling saying they can.

    Doesn't that open up the possibility that there could be a ruling to stop all counting but include the ones already counted?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,101
    edited November 2020

    GIN1138 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Over the last 24 hours I have been nothing but calmness and sereneness personified.

    I genuinely have as to me it seems the perfect result with Biden winning, Trump gone, but also Biden restricted by the Senate while the Republicans hopefully can find a sane candidate to go forward
    Trump 2024. Only question is which Trump.
    An all female Trump v Harris contest?
    Biden won't last the full term IMO.

    He'll either die in office or his senility will become so obvious he'll have to be replaced in the first year. Harris is likely to be POTUS for at least two or three years before 2024 so she'll be the incumbent POTUS with quite a long record to defend.

    Will be interesting.
    Ghoulish.
    Biden explained, without notes (it was a question after a speech) the scientific difference between different types of potential vaccine model under development.

    Trump misremembered the words "man, woman, TV, camera" and recognised a drawing of an elephant.

    Bizarre obsession people have with calling Biden senile.
    Well yesterday he couldn't remember his own family members....no idea where people get this idea.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Some talk that the latest Georgia data may point to a runoff in the other senate election there (Perdue v Ossoff). I can't verify this.
  • Scott_xP said:
    Very scary.
  • Alistair said:

    Also reading news reports about more and more coincidentally Red Pennsylvania counties who are not counting mail-ballots until they get a court ruling saying they can.

    How does that help them?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Alistair said:

    Also reading news reports about more and more coincidentally Red Pennsylvania counties who are not counting mail-ballots until they get a court ruling saying they can.

    How does that help them?
    Mail in ballots in Red counties will still favour Biden.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    I've a feeling that Biden is going to take Georgia. Narrowly, like Wisconsin.

    May be wrong.
  • Alistair said:

    Also reading news reports about more and more coincidentally Red Pennsylvania counties who are not counting mail-ballots until they get a court ruling saying they can.

    That's a mistake.

    The longer it takes to count them the harder it will be for the country to accept.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Chris said:

    Mal557 said:

    stodge said:

    I was having a look at turnout numbers.

    In Alabama, 2,123,372 voted in 2016 and 2,279,481 this time which is a 7.4% increase in votes cast.

    In Ohio, 5.496.487 voted in 2016 but it's likely something like 6,270,000 votes will be counted this time which would be a 12.4% increase in the number of votes.

    In Wisconsin, 2,976,150 voted in 2016 and 3,297.137 votes have been counted this time which is a 9.7% increase.

    Assume 10% for Pennsylvania and you'd be expecting around 6,782,000 votes to be cast.

    So far, according to the BBC results, 5,775,174 votes have been cast so there could well be another million votes out there. if the remaining million votes split about 3:1 for Biden he could still win the state but that's the size of the task.

    That's pretty how much how I see PA. I think there was a number given earlier of 1.2 million votes left. He will win 3 to 1 in a lot of places maybe even higher in Philli. But my worry is that there are enough Trump counties in PA with votes still to be counted that even if Biden wins the postal votes it wont be 3 to 1 there so he will fall short
    The NYT is currently showing Trump with a 6.5% lead, with 82% reported. So to draw level, Biden would need a 29.6% lead in the remaining votes. That's a lot less than the 41.9% lead for mail ballots based on party registration.
    As far as I can tell, with the exception of a small number of Philly Precincts, all on the day voting has been counted. The remaining vote is all VBM. Even in the deep red counties the VBM is Biden leaning.
  • US is so divided on so many key issues and increasingly little overlap, I don't see how you ever then elect governance that gets stuff done and this is a time when the world is radically changing and needs some serious action.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Alistair said:

    Also reading news reports about more and more coincidentally Red Pennsylvania counties who are not counting mail-ballots until they get a court ruling saying they can.

    That's a mistake.

    The longer it takes to count them the harder it will be for the country to accept.
    That's the whole point!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    Also reading news reports about more and more coincidentally Red Pennsylvania counties who are not counting mail-ballots until they get a court ruling saying they can.

    How does that help them?
    Because even in the deepest reddest PA county the VBM is for Biden.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,335
    You cant blame Trump for throwing everything at this now that he is on the cusp of losing. Once he walks out of the White House it is possible he is going to be to be ruined financially, or in jail.

    He has however by, accident or design, set a template for a more sane successor about how you can win votes with a nationalistic, no nonsense bent.
  • Biggest winner from this election...China.

    Big Don and his tariffs will be gone, so back to business as normal with no waking up and finding the US have decided to change the rules again. Sleepy Joe won't stand up to them and will be busy making America less competitive with higher wages and focus on environmental regulations, but will get bogged down with the senate against him, so not really any progress.

    While the population will be split and I don't see an end to the disturbances.

    The USA can't dictate the world order solo anymore but the West can hold the line if it bands together in trade, foreign and security policy.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    GIN1138 said:

    Biggest winner from this election...China.

    Big Don and his tariffs will be gone, so back to business as normal. Sleepy Joe won't stand up to them and will be busy making America less competitive with higher wages and focus on environmental regulations, but will get bogged down with the senate against him.

    While the population will be split and I don't see an end to the disturbances.

    To be fair it's been a long term trend for a while. 2016 and now 2020 has just accelerated it.

    USA is falling. China is rising. New era is nearly upon us...
    Depends. If you map out the sorts of innovations that will shape the world in decades to come, such as AI, the US still has a commanding intellectual and industrial lead. So there is a counter argument, see the book by Macaes.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    So. Many. PA. County. Websites. Are. Broken.
  • If Trump wins it is over. The great US democratic experiment is done. Imagine how voting will be in four years after another term of his family and whacko cronies.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    The Five Thirty Eight blog is great for keeping tabs on PA.

    Trump's lead now under 400k with 1m ballots to count...

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2020-election-results-coverage/
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    Yokes said:

    You cant blame Trump for throwing everything at this now that he is on the cusp of losing. Once he walks out of the White House it is possible he is going to be to be ruined financially, or in jail.

    He has however by, accident or design, set a template for a more sane successor about how you can win votes with a nationalistic, no nonsense bent.

    I can blame him for sure, hes the most powerful man in the world.....I can certainly say I'm not surprised and thats it totally in character and that this was probably invetiable unless it was a landslide to Biden or Trump had won (even though he still could which is the crazy thing)
  • Scott_xP said:
    Fascism. You gotta call it when you see it.

    Incredibly around 45-50% of Americans welcome it.
    They see Democrats as communists trying to steal the nation and its culture.

    For every view like that there's a counter view. Hence, election.

    (For the record I agree that it's absolutely outrageous and disgraceful)
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited November 2020

    GIN1138 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Over the last 24 hours I have been nothing but calmness and sereneness personified.

    I genuinely have as to me it seems the perfect result with Biden winning, Trump gone, but also Biden restricted by the Senate while the Republicans hopefully can find a sane candidate to go forward
    Trump 2024. Only question is which Trump.
    An all female Trump v Harris contest?
    Biden won't last the full term IMO.

    He'll either die in office or his senility will become so obvious he'll have to be replaced in the first year. Harris is likely to be POTUS for at least two or three years before 2024 so she'll be the incumbent POTUS with quite a long record to defend.

    Will be interesting.
    Ghoulish.
    Biden explained, without notes (it was a question after a speech) the scientific difference between different types of potential vaccine model under development.

    Trump misremembered the words "man, woman, TV, camera" and recognised a drawing of an elephant.

    Bizarre obsession people have with calling Biden senile.
    From his cabin in Washington state SeaShantyIrish effectively said that about Biden some time ago. Trump avows random rubbish like someone with shingles up....
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,335
    Just be aware that if the lawsuits invalidate the state results the end product may be who is ahead with what is left.

    That is possibly Biden so be careful about digging a hole that you might fall into yourself.

    Trump has telegraphed his approach for ages, he and his family are the driving force behind the grievance approach, not his advisors
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,699

    stodge said:

    kyf_100 said:


    In terms of Trump's base, I was quite shocked to read that Trump has made inroads into every other ethnicity while losing the support of white men.

    I had started to see him as a white supremacist, based on his comments while in power. But the polls seem to contradict this.

    It's something I'm having trouble understanding. Trump's base isn't just stronger. It appears to be more diverse.

    The loss of support among white men has been evident for ages in the polling. My theory on this isn't perhaps very original - I think some white men couldn't vote for Hilary Clinton because she was a woman but could vote for the male Joe Biden.

    It would be ironic if a progressive ticket won because of the votes of misogynists but that's politics for you.

    As for Trump's improved performance among Hispanics and African-Americans, I find that harder to resolve. There is an appeal to generations who have voted Democrat and seemingly not nothing out of it - it's not unlike the conundrum Labour has faced over here.

    The bit I struggle with is so much of what Trump promised in 2016 and has promised since hasn't been delivered. No one seems able or willing to hold him account for what he hasn't done (quite apart from what he has) and why he hasn't done it.
    Trump is an American nationalist rather than a white supremacist. The woke analysis is that ethnic minorities are voting for him because he offers a "path to whiteness", and that they themselves have been corrupted by internalised white supremacy, but this is extremely patronising. In a way it's also curiously anti-immigrant: "We don't want people comin' over 'ere, tellin' us we're the greatest country in the world."
    It's extremely patronising and explains why the Democrats will never convincingly win for as long as they head down that path.
    These Latinos are as bad as the "white guys in diners".

    https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1323962700268032000
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    GIN1138 said:

    Biggest winner from this election...China.

    Big Don and his tariffs will be gone, so back to business as normal. Sleepy Joe won't stand up to them and will be busy making America less competitive with higher wages and focus on environmental regulations, but will get bogged down with the senate against him.

    While the population will be split and I don't see an end to the disturbances.

    To be fair it's been a long term trend for a while. 2016 and now 2020 has just accelerated it.

    USA is falling. China is rising. New era is nearly upon us...
    Wrong.

    A Biden presidency will make a concordat between China and the US far more likely, benefiting both nations.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,335
    My suggestion about a week ago that there was value in the bet on Georgia having the smallest winning margin might is back on the table.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    Yokes said:

    You cant blame Trump for throwing everything at this now that he is on the cusp of losing. Once he walks out of the White House it is possible he is going to be to be ruined financially, or in jail.

    If Ex-President Trump has to go into exile rather than land up in jail I wonder where he'd go? Would Vlad take him? :D
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209
    According to AP, Michigan is 99% reported and Biden has a 1.1% lead.

    I think that gets called very soon.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Over the last 24 hours I have been nothing but calmness and sereneness personified.

    I genuinely have as to me it seems the perfect result with Biden winning, Trump gone, but also Biden restricted by the Senate while the Republicans hopefully can find a sane candidate to go forward
    Trump 2024. Only question is which Trump.
    An all female Trump v Harris contest?
    Biden won't last the full term IMO.

    He'll either die in office or his senility will become so obvious he'll have to be replaced in the first year. Harris is likely to be POTUS for at least two or three years before 2024 so she'll be the incumbent POTUS with quite a long record to defend.

    Will be interesting.
    Ghoulish.
    Biden explained, without notes (it was a question after a speech) the scientific difference between different types of potential vaccine model under development.

    Trump misremembered the words "man, woman, TV, camera" and recognised a drawing of an elephant.

    Bizarre obsession people have with calling Biden senile.
    Well yesterday he couldn't remember his own family members....no idea where people get this idea.
    Have you ever spoken to an elderly relative? They all mix up family names, they are not all senile!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,101
    edited November 2020

    stodge said:

    kyf_100 said:


    In terms of Trump's base, I was quite shocked to read that Trump has made inroads into every other ethnicity while losing the support of white men.

    I had started to see him as a white supremacist, based on his comments while in power. But the polls seem to contradict this.

    It's something I'm having trouble understanding. Trump's base isn't just stronger. It appears to be more diverse.

    The loss of support among white men has been evident for ages in the polling. My theory on this isn't perhaps very original - I think some white men couldn't vote for Hilary Clinton because she was a woman but could vote for the male Joe Biden.

    It would be ironic if a progressive ticket won because of the votes of misogynists but that's politics for you.

    As for Trump's improved performance among Hispanics and African-Americans, I find that harder to resolve. There is an appeal to generations who have voted Democrat and seemingly not nothing out of it - it's not unlike the conundrum Labour has faced over here.

    The bit I struggle with is so much of what Trump promised in 2016 and has promised since hasn't been delivered. No one seems able or willing to hold him account for what he hasn't done (quite apart from what he has) and why he hasn't done it.
    Trump is an American nationalist rather than a white supremacist. The woke analysis is that ethnic minorities are voting for him because he offers a "path to whiteness", and that they themselves have been corrupted by internalised white supremacy, but this is extremely patronising. In a way it's also curiously anti-immigrant: "We don't want people comin' over 'ere, tellin' us we're the greatest country in the world."
    It's extremely patronising and explains why the Democrats will never convincingly win for as long as they head down that path.
    These Latinos are as bad as the "white guys in diners".

    https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1323962700268032000
    Pretty racist....this idea at all ethnic groups are one monolithic block who all think and vote the same way and if they don't there is something off about it.

    Imagine god forbid people suggested that all Brits thought exactly the same way as the French...because we are both from Western Europe.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Biggest winner from this election...China.

    Big Don and his tariffs will be gone, so back to business as normal. Sleepy Joe won't stand up to them and will be busy making America less competitive with higher wages and focus on environmental regulations, but will get bogged down with the senate against him.

    While the population will be split and I don't see an end to the disturbances.

    To be fair it's been a long term trend for a while. 2016 and now 2020 has just accelerated it.

    USA is falling. China is rising. New era is nearly upon us...
    Election nights in China are rather mundane :lol:
  • Biggest winner from this election...China.

    Big Don and his tariffs will be gone, so back to business as normal with no waking up and finding the US have decided to change the rules again. Sleepy Joe won't stand up to them and will be busy making America less competitive with higher wages and focus on environmental regulations, but will get bogged down with the senate against him, so not really any progress.

    While the population will be split and I don't see an end to the disturbances.

    The USA can't dictate the world order solo anymore but the West can hold the line if it bands together in trade, foreign and security policy.
    But if the US doesnt respect the democratic process and the UK doesnt respect the rule of international law there is no West.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    edited November 2020
    PA is done, only 250k votes in it and there's still a stack of Dem postals to be counted.

    Plus MI that puts Biden on 273. All over.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,425

    GIN1138 said:

    Biggest winner from this election...China.

    Big Don and his tariffs will be gone, so back to business as normal. Sleepy Joe won't stand up to them and will be busy making America less competitive with higher wages and focus on environmental regulations, but will get bogged down with the senate against him.

    While the population will be split and I don't see an end to the disturbances.

    To be fair it's been a long term trend for a while. 2016 and now 2020 has just accelerated it.

    USA is falling. China is rising. New era is nearly upon us...
    Wrong.

    A Biden presidency will make a concordat between China and the US far more likely, benefiting both nations.
    Xi Jingping is not someone the West can trust.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Twitter has delete four of Trump’s tweets. Lol,
  • Decent speech by Biden.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Luzerne County

    Voted 58%/38% for Trump in 2016

    VBM
    70% Biden
    30% Trump

    Westmoreland 64/32 for Trump
    VBM
    68% Biden
    31% Trump

    Postal vote are flowing to Biden for every corner of the state.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    IF the buggers will count them
  • Biggest winner from this election...China.

    Big Don and his tariffs will be gone, so back to business as normal with no waking up and finding the US have decided to change the rules again. Sleepy Joe won't stand up to them and will be busy making America less competitive with higher wages and focus on environmental regulations, but will get bogged down with the senate against him, so not really any progress.

    While the population will be split and I don't see an end to the disturbances.

    The USA can't dictate the world order solo anymore but the West can hold the line if it bands together in trade, foreign and security policy.
    But if the US doesnt respect the democratic process and the UK doesnt respect the rule of international law there is no West.
    Indeed. Both our countries still set the tone for a lot.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Pitch perfect by Biden
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    GIN1138 said:

    Yokes said:

    You cant blame Trump for throwing everything at this now that he is on the cusp of losing. Once he walks out of the White House it is possible he is going to be to be ruined financially, or in jail.

    If Ex-President Trump has to go into exile rather than land up in jail I wonder where he'd go? Would Vlad take him? :D
    Brazil.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291

    Good speech by Biden. He has campaigned as a Democrat but will govern as an American president for all Americans, and owes them all a duty of care.

    Trying to convince Republican voters he won't fuck them.

    Oh yeah good luck with that lol!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    stodge said:

    kyf_100 said:


    In terms of Trump's base, I was quite shocked to read that Trump has made inroads into every other ethnicity while losing the support of white men.

    I had started to see him as a white supremacist, based on his comments while in power. But the polls seem to contradict this.

    It's something I'm having trouble understanding. Trump's base isn't just stronger. It appears to be more diverse.

    The loss of support among white men has been evident for ages in the polling. My theory on this isn't perhaps very original - I think some white men couldn't vote for Hilary Clinton because she was a woman but could vote for the male Joe Biden.

    It would be ironic if a progressive ticket won because of the votes of misogynists but that's politics for you.

    As for Trump's improved performance among Hispanics and African-Americans, I find that harder to resolve. There is an appeal to generations who have voted Democrat and seemingly not nothing out of it - it's not unlike the conundrum Labour has faced over here.

    The bit I struggle with is so much of what Trump promised in 2016 and has promised since hasn't been delivered. No one seems able or willing to hold him account for what he hasn't done (quite apart from what he has) and why he hasn't done it.
    Trump is an American nationalist rather than a white supremacist. The woke analysis is that ethnic minorities are voting for him because he offers a "path to whiteness", and that they themselves have been corrupted by internalised white supremacy, but this is extremely patronising. In a way it's also curiously anti-immigrant: "We don't want people comin' over 'ere, tellin' us we're the greatest country in the world."
    It's extremely patronising and explains why the Democrats will never convincingly win for as long as they head down that path.
    These Latinos are as bad as the "white guys in diners".

    https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1323962700268032000
    This is a dig at the NYTimes staple article "Deep in Trump country Joe stands by his man" that they write every 3 months or so.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Biggest winner from this election...China.

    Big Don and his tariffs will be gone, so back to business as normal. Sleepy Joe won't stand up to them and will be busy making America less competitive with higher wages and focus on environmental regulations, but will get bogged down with the senate against him.

    While the population will be split and I don't see an end to the disturbances.

    To be fair it's been a long term trend for a while. 2016 and now 2020 has just accelerated it.

    USA is falling. China is rising. New era is nearly upon us...
    Wrong.

    A Biden presidency will make a concordat between China and the US far more likely, benefiting both nations.
    Nah. One of the very very few things Trump did right was to highlight what a risk China represents to the West, and not just the US. If Biden thinks he can do deals with China then they will wipe the floor with him.

    I am still glad to see Trump gone but I hold out no hope for a Biden presidency what so ever. Even though if I had been a US citizen I would have voted for him.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    I've a feeling that Biden is going to take Georgia. Narrowly, like Wisconsin.

    May be wrong.

    Biden seems extremely confident that they have won PA.

    Great speech by him – this could be over fairly soon I hope.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    Interesting Biden didnt mention NV or GA in his speech and states doing well but confident on PA. Guess as NV and GA so close he didnt want to.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,101
    edited November 2020

    GIN1138 said:

    Biggest winner from this election...China.

    Big Don and his tariffs will be gone, so back to business as normal. Sleepy Joe won't stand up to them and will be busy making America less competitive with higher wages and focus on environmental regulations, but will get bogged down with the senate against him.

    While the population will be split and I don't see an end to the disturbances.

    To be fair it's been a long term trend for a while. 2016 and now 2020 has just accelerated it.

    USA is falling. China is rising. New era is nearly upon us...
    Wrong.

    A Biden presidency will make a concordat between China and the US far more likely, benefiting both nations.
    Continuation of this idea that we need to draw China towards the west and western values...its a massively flawed idea that the west has been trying for 25+ years and China says thanks, we will play be the bits of the rules that work for us and rip off all your IP, manipulate our currency to undercut you, crush key industries and make you all totally dependent on us.
  • Chris said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Yokes said:

    You cant blame Trump for throwing everything at this now that he is on the cusp of losing. Once he walks out of the White House it is possible he is going to be to be ruined financially, or in jail.

    If Ex-President Trump has to go into exile rather than land up in jail I wonder where he'd go? Would Vlad take him? :D
    Brazil.
    Chequers.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Stocky said:

    Pitch perfect by Biden


    Brilliant speech. Suspect many moderate Trump voters will think well of it.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Alistair said:

    Luzerne County

    Voted 58%/38% for Trump in 2016

    VBM
    70% Biden
    30% Trump

    Westmoreland 64/32 for Trump
    VBM
    68% Biden
    31% Trump

    Postal vote are flowing to Biden for every corner of the state.

    Wow. Just wow.

    Biden just mentioned PA in his speech.

    They've won it I think.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,129
    Scott_xP said:
    That seems very believable, in how much importance he would give to what the TV says rather than what actually is happening.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,851
    I've just realised the best way to think about the EC Maths.

    84 votes in play

    Biden needs 33
    Trump needs 53

    Pennsylvania - 20 votes
    Michigan - 16 votes
    Georgia -16 votes
    Arizona - 11 votes
    North Carolina - 15 votes
    Nevada - 6 votes
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209

    GIN1138 said:

    Biggest winner from this election...China.

    Big Don and his tariffs will be gone, so back to business as normal. Sleepy Joe won't stand up to them and will be busy making America less competitive with higher wages and focus on environmental regulations, but will get bogged down with the senate against him.

    While the population will be split and I don't see an end to the disturbances.

    To be fair it's been a long term trend for a while. 2016 and now 2020 has just accelerated it.

    USA is falling. China is rising. New era is nearly upon us...
    Wrong.

    A Biden presidency will make a concordat between China and the US far more likely, benefiting both nations.
    Nah. One of the very very few things Trump did right was to highlight what a risk China represents to the West, and not just the US. If Biden thinks he can do deals with China then they will wipe the floor with him.

    I am still glad to see Trump gone but I hold out no hope for a Biden presidency what so ever. Even though if I had been a US citizen I would have voted for him.
    Biden is like syphilis.

    Trump is like AIDS.

    You wouldn't want to end up with either of them, but in a forced choice it's pretty obvious which one you'd want to go for.
  • Alistair said:

    Luzerne County

    Voted 58%/38% for Trump in 2016

    VBM
    70% Biden
    30% Trump

    Westmoreland 64/32 for Trump
    VBM
    68% Biden
    31% Trump

    Postal vote are flowing to Biden for every corner of the state.

    Wow. Just wow.

    Biden just mentioned PA in his speech.

    They've won it I think.
    And if they do it’s all over. No way back for Trump through NV or AZ.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,129

    Stocky said:

    Pitch perfect by Biden


    Brilliant speech. Suspect many moderate Trump voters will think well of it.
    Isn't the problem that even the moderate Democrats and Republicans are pretty much walled off in their bubbles and not watching stuff pitched to ward the other side?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    Alistair said:

    Luzerne County

    Voted 58%/38% for Trump in 2016

    VBM
    70% Biden
    30% Trump

    Westmoreland 64/32 for Trump
    VBM
    68% Biden
    31% Trump

    Postal vote are flowing to Biden for every corner of the state.

    Wow. Just wow.

    Biden just mentioned PA in his speech.

    They've won it I think.
    Yeah, it's a done deal. No way to lose it from here, winning margin of 200k or so I think.
  • Some talk that the latest Georgia data may point to a runoff in the other senate election there (Perdue v Ossoff). I can't verify this.

    Seems like a bigger ask, looking at the numbers, than a Biden win (which I think is maybe a 60% chance).
  • I've just realised the best way to think about the EC Maths.

    84 votes in play

    Biden needs 33
    Trump needs 53

    Pennsylvania - 20 votes
    Michigan - 16 votes
    Georgia -16 votes
    Arizona - 11 votes
    North Carolina - 15 votes
    Nevada - 6 votes

    Biden down to needing just 17 now with the MI declaration.
  • The Five Thirty Eight blog is great for keeping tabs on PA.

    Trump's lead now under 400k with 1m ballots to count...

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2020-election-results-coverage/

    They need to wrap it up in the next 24 hours.

    Pennsylvania has a Democrat governor but a Republican state house and senate.
  • CNN call MI for Biden.
    That means he just needs PA or any 2 from AZ,NV,GA,NC.
  • rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Biggest winner from this election...China.

    Big Don and his tariffs will be gone, so back to business as normal. Sleepy Joe won't stand up to them and will be busy making America less competitive with higher wages and focus on environmental regulations, but will get bogged down with the senate against him.

    While the population will be split and I don't see an end to the disturbances.

    To be fair it's been a long term trend for a while. 2016 and now 2020 has just accelerated it.

    USA is falling. China is rising. New era is nearly upon us...
    Wrong.

    A Biden presidency will make a concordat between China and the US far more likely, benefiting both nations.
    Nah. One of the very very few things Trump did right was to highlight what a risk China represents to the West, and not just the US. If Biden thinks he can do deals with China then they will wipe the floor with him.

    I am still glad to see Trump gone but I hold out no hope for a Biden presidency what so ever. Even though if I had been a US citizen I would have voted for him.
    Biden is like syphilis.

    Trump is like AIDS.

    You wouldn't want to end up with either of them, but in a forced choice it's pretty obvious which one you'd want to go for.
    Wow that's a bit harsh on Biden! I was thinking he was more like having an annoying condition like narcolepsy. Agree about Trump though.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Biggest winner from this election...China.

    Big Don and his tariffs will be gone, so back to business as normal. Sleepy Joe won't stand up to them and will be busy making America less competitive with higher wages and focus on environmental regulations, but will get bogged down with the senate against him.

    While the population will be split and I don't see an end to the disturbances.

    To be fair it's been a long term trend for a while. 2016 and now 2020 has just accelerated it.

    USA is falling. China is rising. New era is nearly upon us...
    Wrong.

    A Biden presidency will make a concordat between China and the US far more likely, benefiting both nations.
    Nah. One of the very very few things Trump did right was to highlight what a risk China represents to the West, and not just the US. If Biden thinks he can do deals with China then they will wipe the floor with him.

    I am still glad to see Trump gone but I hold out no hope for a Biden presidency what so ever. Even though if I had been a US citizen I would have voted for him.
    Biden is like syphilis.

    Trump is like AIDS.

    You wouldn't want to end up with either of them, but in a forced choice it's pretty obvious which one you'd want to go for.
    What's Boris like?
  • Scott_xP said:
    How the hell would Vanity Fair know?
This discussion has been closed.