Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Biden moves to an 84% chance of victory on the exchanges as the scale of his likely victory becomes

1456810

Comments

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,131
    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    I see even in deep Red Wyoming 2 counties went for Biden (1 more than for Hilary), and one by 38%. I wonder if that's the fewest counties for one of the parties in any state (given it is very low population state).

    Doubtful. Delaware has only 3 counties.
    Blimey, I knew it was a small state but even so. Even Rhode Island has more.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Kamala Harris was a shit choice for VP. I reckon she cost the Democrats a lot of ground.

    I really do think that's absolute nonsense.

    She was a safe choice who performed reasonably well in the VP debate, made no significant slip ups, campaigned with the required energy, and had fairly good favourability ratings.

    VP choices don't win elections. Sometimes they can be a major drag on the ticket (Eagleton,briefly, and Palin, eventually). But there's no basis at all for saying Harris was anything like that. Sometimes, in a very close election, they might help you over the line (Johnson). But overwhelmingly they are chosen on the basis of "do no harm". That was true of Harris, and she did no harm.

    And I'd say Pence was a sensible VP choice on exactly the same basis (and Kaine was for Clinton).
    Nah. She's a Queen of Wokeness - see the totally stupid tweet she posted at the weekend that riled many - and people would have been worried she'd be steering behind the scenes and could take over as President during Biden's term of office. It's actually very similar to the concerns people had of Palin taking over from McCain in 2008.
    At least in Palin's case they would have had valid cause!
  • It will certainly be better if its not 270-268.

    We don't need weeks of speculation about faithless electors.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    edited November 2020

    It will certainly be better if its not 270-268.

    We don't need weeks of speculation about faithless electors.

    Why would it be 270-268 ?

    Plenty of Philly mail to arrive.
  • This seems like an excellent result for the GOP. Hold the senate, no threat to scotus, and well placed for 2022 midterms ahead of 2024 after 4 years of a lame duck Biden presidency. Trump may call fraud but I doubt he will find many in the GOP elite backing him on that.

    Yes. And Dems also lost ground in the House too.

    But, British coverage just wants to talk about how Biden has won the most voters ever.
  • kicorsekicorse Posts: 435

    Alistair said:

    Kamala Harris was a shit choice for VP. I reckon she cost the Democrats a lot of ground.

    No idea why she was selected.
    Because the Dems want to deliver a black woman President - but know one would never get elected in her own right?
    Well Biden said he was going to select a woman well in advance, which shouldn't have been necessary, but it's not clear who would have been a better choice even if he hadn't done that. She comes across well, is clearly competent, and brought no negatives for Trump to campaign on.

    I can see things not to like about her from the perspective of a political nerd, but not from an ordinary voter.

    Unless you just mean racial and gender bias, that is....

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,603
    Scott_xP said:
    48.1% of the national vote is way above what the polls were saying. 48.5% might have been enough. But it's not that, so he will have to vacate the White House.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited November 2020
    Scott_xP said:
    Fox want to keep a media toehold in Biden's Presidency
  • Genuinely think it's a distinct possibility Biden gets over 300
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,131

    This seems like an excellent result for the GOP. Hold the senate, no threat to scotus, and well placed for 2022 midterms ahead of 2024 after 4 years of a lame duck Biden presidency. Trump may call fraud but I doubt he will find many in the GOP elite backing him on that.

    Yes. And Dems also lost ground in the House too.

    But, British coverage just wants to talk about how Biden has won the most voters ever.
    Well, it's the headline news. I doubt most non-anoraks are mentally ready to hear about the implications of a continued split Congress etc.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Mal557 said:

    I think someone on here, Alistair? was projecting about a 150K win for Biden in PA. Seems Bidens team are now thinking the same,,,,great minds :)
    https://twitter.com/BresPolitico/status/1324098012172439552

    I said 60K earlier this morning. Looks like Alistair was on the nail. We will see.
    I went for 97,480 as I recall.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652

    Kamala Harris was a shit choice for VP. I reckon she cost the Democrats a lot of ground.

    I really do think that's absolute nonsense.

    She was a safe choice who performed reasonably well in the VP debate, made no significant slip ups, campaigned with the required energy, and had fairly good favourability ratings.

    VP choices don't win elections. Sometimes they can be a major drag on the ticket (Eagleton,briefly, and Palin, eventually). But there's no basis at all for saying Harris was anything like that. Sometimes, in a very close election, they might help you over the line (Johnson). But overwhelmingly they are chosen on the basis of "do no harm". That was true of Harris, and she did no harm.

    And I'd say Pence was a sensible VP choice on exactly the same basis (and Kaine was for Clinton).
    Nah. She's a Queen of Wokeness - see the totally stupid tweet she posted at the weekend that riled many - and people would have been worried she'd be steering behind the scenes and could take over as President during Biden's term of office. It's actually very similar to the concerns people had of Palin taking over from McCain in 2008.
    Thay's why she lost. Should have appointed Dom and Matthew as race advisors.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Remeber all the way back in 2018 where everyone agreed it was a terrible night for the Dems and then when all the votes were counted it was a blue wave.

    Crazy times, never see the like of that again
  • Almost 71 million people voted to end the politics of populism and hatred. We can sleep soundly.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Biden's biggest job is Covid.

    He needs to restart anything Trump blocked.

    And Trump supporters who attended superspreader events are going to start to get sick, so just maybe they will understand it

    As soon as Biden takes over America will be going into a national lockdown I'd think? Might allow everything calm down for a couple of months perhaps?
    I can't see that happening.

    Firstly, this is essentially a state matter, and Biden can be supportive or discouraging of states and cities where there are problems, but isn't going to pile in feet first with a national lockdown (and the US is big and varied - it isn't the UK).

    Secondly, it's a bad look to be that authoritarian and feeds into Republicans' criticism of him.

    Thirdly, Biden is fortunate in that a vaccine roll-out probably will be at the early stages when he comes in.

    Finally, he doesn't have the Senate majority to force through a huge stimulus package to counterbalance the economic impact.

    Instead, I think he'll be more supportive of Governors wanting and needing to be more restrictive due to specific conditions.
  • Alistair said:

    Remeber all the way back in 2018 where everyone agreed it was a terrible night for the Dems and then when all the votes were counted it was a blue wave.

    Crazy times, never see the like of that again

    The beauty of this is that all the top stuff happened during the UK day. I'm glad I only stayed up to 1am now.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,717

    Kamala Harris was a shit choice for VP. I reckon she cost the Democrats a lot of ground.

    Possibly so. A bit too Black, Indian, Female, and Californian for the swing voters.

    She may well be a very good VP though. She seems quite feisty and intelligent.

    Campaigning skill correlates very poorly, perhaps even inversely, with skill at governing.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Lol - Guiliani saying that they are going to launch a national legal challenge!!! ;)
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Mal557 said:

    I think someone on here, Alistair? was projecting about a 150K win for Biden in PA. Seems Bidens team are now thinking the same,,,,great minds :)
    https://twitter.com/BresPolitico/status/1324098012172439552

    I said 60K earlier this morning. Looks like Alistair was on the nail. We will see.
    If this is right Jen O'Malley Dillon deserves the Nobel Peace prize, held her ground by not flooding TX and FL despite various siren calls to do so and focused resolutely on rebuilding the wall around the Great Lakes.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    kle4 said:

    Mal557 said:

    I think someone on here, Alistair? was projecting about a 150K win for Biden in PA. Seems Bidens team are now thinking the same,,,,great minds :)
    https://twitter.com/BresPolitico/status/1324098012172439552

    Not telling him it that privately it seems.
    The telling may have been private ...
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,708
    AZ to release numbers at 9pm ET and 12.30am ET
  • Mal557 said:

    I think someone on here, Alistair? was projecting about a 150K win for Biden in PA. Seems Bidens team are now thinking the same,,,,great minds :)
    https://twitter.com/BresPolitico/status/1324098012172439552

    I said 60K earlier this morning. Looks like Alistair was on the nail. We will see.
    I went for 97,480 as I recall.
    Nicely precise.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Legal challenges in every state!
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited November 2020
    I've a soft spot for Pennsylvania. My grandad and his wife designed their farmhouse and barn with the help of an itinerant carpenter in the late 1800s. They used hickory sourced from their woods and milled down the valley. Both still stand and appear in good shape. If you look in either of two directions you can see mountain ridges. Their rising spring never dries up.

    https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@39.9506175,-78.5038855,3a,75y,137.38h,96.85t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1s-PNHGiBi8AE__aY4yNr1yQ!2e0!7i3328!8i1664?hl=en
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    I see Nate Silver is now classing Arizona and Nevada as "Likely Biden", Pennsylvania as "Lean Biden", Georgia as "Tossup" (or "Lean Biden" if forced to choose) and North Carolina as "Likely Trump".
  • Ohio as a bellwether looks to have gone
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,210

    Scott_xP said:
    48.1% of the national vote is way above what the polls were saying. 48.5% might have been enough. But it's not that, so he will have to vacate the White House.
    Trump will end up four points behind Biden because so much of California has not been counted yet
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Mal557 said:

    I think someone on here, Alistair? was projecting about a 150K win for Biden in PA. Seems Bidens team are now thinking the same,,,,great minds :)
    https://twitter.com/BresPolitico/status/1324098012172439552

    I said 60K earlier this morning. Looks like Alistair was on the nail. We will see.
    I feel a lot of people though I was taking the piss when I said Biden by 180k a few hours ago.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Ohio as a bellwether looks to have gone

    Yes indeed.

    This Georgia result is likely to be fantastically close. Biden is closing.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    This seems like an excellent result for the GOP. Hold the senate, no threat to scotus, and well placed for 2022 midterms ahead of 2024 after 4 years of a lame duck Biden presidency. Trump may call fraud but I doubt he will find many in the GOP elite backing him on that.

    Yes. And Dems also lost ground in the House too.

    But, British coverage just wants to talk about how Biden has won the most voters ever.
    All the British care about, reasonably, is that Trump is gone. The rest is just for the Americans to worry about. It won't really impact us.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662

    This seems like an excellent result for the GOP. Hold the senate, no threat to scotus, and well placed for 2022 midterms ahead of 2024 after 4 years of a lame duck Biden presidency. Trump may call fraud but I doubt he will find many in the GOP elite backing him on that.

    Yes. And Dems also lost ground in the House too.

    But, British coverage just wants to talk about how Biden has won the most voters ever.
    I do agree with this , I think when the dust has settled and Donald has been led away, the Rs will sit back and look rather pleased with the overall picture.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,708
    I'm no fan of Fox News but it should be noted they haven't gone out of their way to help Trump - calling AZ well before other networks and calling WI and MI in line with other networks.

    They could have created more mood music of uncertainty in these states - they have chosen not to.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,131
    alex_ said:

    Legal challenges in every state!

    Party hack lawyer seems like a good business to be in in America.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Mal557 said:

    I think someone on here, Alistair? was projecting about a 150K win for Biden in PA. Seems Bidens team are now thinking the same,,,,great minds :)
    https://twitter.com/BresPolitico/status/1324098012172439552

    I said 60K earlier this morning. Looks like Alistair was on the nail. We will see.
    If this is right Jen O'Malley Dillon deserves the Nobel Peace prize, held her ground by not flooding TX and FL despite various siren calls to do so and focused resolutely on rebuilding the wall around the Great Lakes.
    Yes. I said Biden is lucky but maybe it was a masterstroke. The Democrats have won this in the midwest. Some of the results are close, but that's how they've done it.
  • Scott_xP said:
    Fox want to keep a media toehold in Biden's Presidency
    The guy who does their numbers and has been for years was interviewed weeks ago by I think The Atlantic (but don't quote me on that bit) - it was very clear that he has always played it exactly fairly as the numbers dictate and there was no process or likely process for management or whatever to interfere.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,427
    Trump now up 5 million votes on 2016. Clear a lot of people liked what he did and how he did it.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    I see even in deep Red Wyoming 2 counties went for Biden (1 more than for Hilary), and one by 38%. I wonder if that's the fewest counties for one of the parties in any state (given it is very low population state).

    Doubtful. Delaware has only 3 counties.
    Blimey, I knew it was a small state but even so. Even Rhode Island has more.
    Fun fact: Delaware has the fewest counties of any state in the union.

    I just googled that.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,717

    Looks like my guess of 275+ is looking quite good

    My prediction of 306 is still on. Where we are now, plus NV, AZ, PA and GA for Biden.
    I think 290 or 306. Either will look convincing given his clear win in the popular vote.

    It does, however, mask some squeaky wins in midwestern states but I guess that will soon be forgotten.
    Well, squeaking wins in the Midwest was forgotten after 2016...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Mal557 said:

    I think someone on here, Alistair? was projecting about a 150K win for Biden in PA. Seems Bidens team are now thinking the same,,,,great minds :)
    https://twitter.com/BresPolitico/status/1324098012172439552

    I said 60K earlier this morning. Looks like Alistair was on the nail. We will see.
    I went for 97,480 as I recall.
    Nicely precise.
    :D I apologised for the false precision earlier but was encouraged to retain it.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Scott_xP said:
    Fox want to keep a media toehold in Biden's Presidency
    The guy who does their numbers and has been for years was interviewed weeks ago by I think The Atlantic (but don't quote me on that bit) - it was very clear that he has always played it exactly fairly as the numbers dictate and there was no process or likely process for management or whatever to interfere.
    That's good.

    Maybe if you take Sean Hannity out of the equation Fox is palatable?!
  • Melania Trump looks well pleased on the BBC clip. Presumably can't wait to get out of WH.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,603
    Mal557 said:

    This seems like an excellent result for the GOP. Hold the senate, no threat to scotus, and well placed for 2022 midterms ahead of 2024 after 4 years of a lame duck Biden presidency. Trump may call fraud but I doubt he will find many in the GOP elite backing him on that.

    Yes. And Dems also lost ground in the House too.

    But, British coverage just wants to talk about how Biden has won the most voters ever.
    I do agree with this , I think when the dust has settled and Donald has been led away, the Rs will sit back and look rather pleased with the overall picture.
    Not least with Donald being led away!
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Foxy said:

    Looks like my guess of 275+ is looking quite good

    My prediction of 306 is still on. Where we are now, plus NV, AZ, PA and GA for Biden.
    I think 290 or 306. Either will look convincing given his clear win in the popular vote.

    It does, however, mask some squeaky wins in midwestern states but I guess that will soon be forgotten.
    Well, squeaking wins in the Midwest was forgotten after 2016...
    Indeed!
  • Foxy said:

    Kamala Harris was a shit choice for VP. I reckon she cost the Democrats a lot of ground.

    Possibly so. A bit too Black, Indian, Female, and Californian for the swing voters.

    She may well be a very good VP though. She seems quite feisty and intelligent.

    Campaigning skill correlates very poorly, perhaps even inversely, with skill at governing.
    I think the bigotry stuff is an excuse. Obama had no problems there.

    Democrats really need to STOP seeing everything through the prism of race, gender and sexuality.

    It really pisses a lot of people off and is BS.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Alistair said:

    Mal557 said:

    I think someone on here, Alistair? was projecting about a 150K win for Biden in PA. Seems Bidens team are now thinking the same,,,,great minds :)
    https://twitter.com/BresPolitico/status/1324098012172439552

    I said 60K earlier this morning. Looks like Alistair was on the nail. We will see.
    I feel a lot of people though I was taking the piss when I said Biden by 180k a few hours ago.
    I think it was more that people didn't dare believe it.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,594
    Voting-age turnout probably won't be much more than about 62-63%.
  • Johnson left exposed, populism is dying and sensible moderate politics is back on the menu. Go Keir!

    That's your conclusion when what the polls said would be an easy landslide yesterday turned into a painfully ground-out nailbiter? I'm more confident than ever that we'll be able to hold off Sir Borealot in 2024.
    Did the polls say that, though? Nate Silver (who has spent longer thinking about this sort of thing than most of us) was pretty clear; the gap between Biden landslide and nailbiter was wafer-thin, and Trump had a non-trivial chance of winning;

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo

    For all we like to think about who's up and who's down, many results fall within MOE. Take the Conservatives between '79 and '92; their vote share hardly changed across 4 elections which ranged from a mega-landslide to a just about workable majority. Or compare '17 and '19. Johnson got 43.6%, May got 42.4%. Yet one is seen as an electoral genius and the other as a disaster.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    MikeL said:

    I'm no fan of Fox News but it should be noted they haven't gone out of their way to help Trump - calling AZ well before other networks and calling WI and MI in line with other networks.

    They could have created more mood music of uncertainty in these states - they have chosen not to.


    Yup – they are always really fair dealers on election night.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    48.1% of the national vote is way above what the polls were saying. 48.5% might have been enough. But it's not that, so he will have to vacate the White House.
    Trump will end up four points behind Biden because so much of California has not been counted yet
    Bravo IBD/TIPP
  • Looks like Trump "clean-sweeped" every county in Oklahoma and WV. I think these are the only Red states where it happened.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,002

    Maybe if you take Sean Hannity out of the equation Fox is palatable?!

    https://twitter.com/sarahcpr/status/1324102494885216261
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,131
    MikeL said:

    I'm no fan of Fox News but it should be noted they haven't gone out of their way to help Trump - calling AZ well before other networks and calling WI and MI in line with other networks.

    They could have created more mood music of uncertainty in these states - they have chosen not to.

    If he's going to launch his own TV offering post presidency then no need for the network to suck up to him too much.

    Trump now up 5 million votes on 2016. Clear a lot of people liked what he did and how he did it.

    Or at least don't care how he did it (some, obviously, will also like the how).
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    edited November 2020

    Genuinely think it's a distinct possibility Biden gets over 300

    Requires GA. What's going on down there?

    Edit: John King on CNN now.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,131
    edited November 2020
    Apparently the Puerto Rico statehood question is at that magic number, 52:48 in favour, though as with all great 52:48s, obviously non binding.
  • As a former Corbyn supporter, I think 2019 here and 2020 in the USA proves to me beyond doubt that what the public want is competence and good governance and something that won't scare them. Go on Keir, I have faith
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    Almost 71 million people voted to end the politics of populism and hatred. We can sleep soundly.

    Not until all the states are called and the court cases thrown out we can't.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Last days of Rome stuff
  • alex_ said:

    This seems like an excellent result for the GOP. Hold the senate, no threat to scotus, and well placed for 2022 midterms ahead of 2024 after 4 years of a lame duck Biden presidency. Trump may call fraud but I doubt he will find many in the GOP elite backing him on that.

    Yes. And Dems also lost ground in the House too.

    But, British coverage just wants to talk about how Biden has won the most voters ever.
    All the British care about, reasonably, is that Trump is gone. The rest is just for the Americans to worry about. It won't really impact us.
    Senate matters for trade deals and foreign policy.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    Foxy said:

    Kamala Harris was a shit choice for VP. I reckon she cost the Democrats a lot of ground.

    Possibly so. A bit too Black, Indian, Female, and Californian for the swing voters.

    She may well be a very good VP though. She seems quite feisty and intelligent.

    Campaigning skill correlates very poorly, perhaps even inversely, with skill at governing.
    I think the bigotry stuff is an excuse. Obama had no problems there.

    Democrats really need to STOP seeing everything through the prism of race, gender and sexuality.

    It really pisses a lot of people off and is BS.
    A majority of Americans have voted for them.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,603
    kicorse said:

    Alistair said:

    Kamala Harris was a shit choice for VP. I reckon she cost the Democrats a lot of ground.

    No idea why she was selected.
    Because the Dems want to deliver a black woman President - but know one would never get elected in her own right?
    Well Biden said he was going to select a woman well in advance, which shouldn't have been necessary, but it's not clear who would have been a better choice even if he hadn't done that. She comes across well, is clearly competent, and brought no negatives for Trump to campaign on.

    I can see things not to like about her from the perspective of a political nerd, but not from an ordinary voter.

    Unless you just mean racial and gender bias, that is....

    Yup, that's what I mean.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    48.1% of the national vote is way above what the polls were saying. 48.5% might have been enough. But it's not that, so he will have to vacate the White House.
    Trump will end up four points behind Biden because so much of California has not been counted yet
    Bravo IBD/TIPP
    Yep, looks likely to be spot on.
  • If Biden does win then what a story he has had.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    glw said:
    Love the twitter annotations.
  • Foxy said:

    Kamala Harris was a shit choice for VP. I reckon she cost the Democrats a lot of ground.

    Possibly so. A bit too Black, Indian, Female, and Californian for the swing voters.

    She may well be a very good VP though. She seems quite feisty and intelligent.

    Campaigning skill correlates very poorly, perhaps even inversely, with skill at governing.
    I think the bigotry stuff is an excuse. Obama had no problems there.

    Democrats really need to STOP seeing everything through the prism of race, gender and sexuality.

    It really pisses a lot of people off and is BS.
    A majority of Americans have voted for them.
    But barely scraped through where it mattered and went backwards in other areas. And don't forget Hillary won the national vote too.

    Humility is needed.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    68k gap in GA now. Biden is getting 70-80% on the remaining ballots coming out of Atlanta.

    It will be very close this.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Fox going back to being bananas.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205

    Scott_xP said:
    48.1% of the national vote is way above what the polls were saying. 48.5% might have been enough. But it's not that, so he will have to vacate the White House.
    It's going down way below that. The West coast is just getting warmed up.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036

    Melania Trump looks well pleased on the BBC clip. Presumably can't wait to get out of WH.

    And into the divorce court?
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507

    Alistair said:

    Mal557 said:

    I think someone on here, Alistair? was projecting about a 150K win for Biden in PA. Seems Bidens team are now thinking the same,,,,great minds :)
    https://twitter.com/BresPolitico/status/1324098012172439552

    I said 60K earlier this morning. Looks like Alistair was on the nail. We will see.
    I feel a lot of people though I was taking the piss when I said Biden by 180k a few hours ago.
    I think it was more that people didn't dare believe it.
    Dems not as short to win Pa as they were an hour ago. 365 1/3 from 1/5.
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lm-_A9LVYi8

    I thought May was terrible but this is just rude.
  • Mal557 said:

    I think someone on here, Alistair? was projecting about a 150K win for Biden in PA. Seems Bidens team are now thinking the same,,,,great minds :)
    https://twitter.com/BresPolitico/status/1324098012172439552

    I said 60K earlier this morning. Looks like Alistair was on the nail. We will see.
    ,
    I went for 97,480 as I recall.
    I went for Pennsylvania, 65000 because I was In The Mood.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Foxy said:

    Kamala Harris was a shit choice for VP. I reckon she cost the Democrats a lot of ground.

    Possibly so. A bit too Black, Indian, Female, and Californian for the swing voters.

    She may well be a very good VP though. She seems quite feisty and intelligent.

    Campaigning skill correlates very poorly, perhaps even inversely, with skill at governing.
    I think the bigotry stuff is an excuse. Obama had no problems there.

    Democrats really need to STOP seeing everything through the prism of race, gender and sexuality.

    It really pisses a lot of people off and is BS.
    I agree, and I don't – but my friend is a Republican!
  • As a former Corbyn supporter, I think 2019 here and 2020 in the USA proves to me beyond doubt that what the public want is competence and good governance and something that won't scare them. Go on Keir, I have faith

    Good luck Keir. Will be 2nd 2024
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    Right, I've made a very small sum off small stakes, mainly on R hold FL, but it's cost me about eight hours' sleep and two unproductive days at work.

    Very disappointed to learn that the Banter Era is now effectively over, but hopeful that a blue WH and a red Senate makes for a low-tax, low stimulus USA for the next few years.

    I'm ducking out of PB again until there's another biggie. All the best.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,717

    Ohio as a bellwether looks to have gone

    Indeed i

    Foxy said:

    Kamala Harris was a shit choice for VP. I reckon she cost the Democrats a lot of ground.

    Possibly so. A bit too Black, Indian, Female, and Californian for the swing voters.

    She may well be a very good VP though. She seems quite feisty and intelligent.

    Campaigning skill correlates very poorly, perhaps even inversely, with skill at governing.
    I think the bigotry stuff is an excuse. Obama had no problems there.

    Democrats really need to STOP seeing everything through the prism of race, gender and sexuality.

    It really pisses a lot of people off and is BS.
    If you think racial, sexuality and gender are no longer issues arousing prejudice in America, then perhaps you need to get out of your bubble and meet more ordinary folk.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205

    Alistair said:

    Mal557 said:

    I think someone on here, Alistair? was projecting about a 150K win for Biden in PA. Seems Bidens team are now thinking the same,,,,great minds :)
    https://twitter.com/BresPolitico/status/1324098012172439552

    I said 60K earlier this morning. Looks like Alistair was on the nail. We will see.
    I feel a lot of people though I was taking the piss when I said Biden by 180k a few hours ago.
    I think it was more that people didn't dare believe it.
    Dems not as short to win Pa as they were an hour ago. 365 1/3 from 1/5.
    Unless something very odd is about to happen with the remaining vote to come in that should win. I'm on anyway.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,131
    Oh for the love of christ, please can both sides spare us the 'Tough discussions, progress made, but still a lot to do' statements.
    Eh, we'll be paying down the additional debt for generations to come, might as well extend a few more months will make no additional difference.
  • As a former Corbyn supporter, I think 2019 here and 2020 in the USA proves to me beyond doubt that what the public want is competence and good governance and something that won't scare them. Go on Keir, I have faith

    Good luck Keir. Will be 2nd 2024
    Technically, we can come second in 2024 and still become the government, quite possible in that case we have a government which over 50% voted for and then we can have a proper PR system implemented.

    Honestly for me in 2024, that is the priority, ending FPTP.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    Foxy said:

    Kamala Harris was a shit choice for VP. I reckon she cost the Democrats a lot of ground.

    Possibly so. A bit too Black, Indian, Female, and Californian for the swing voters.

    She may well be a very good VP though. She seems quite feisty and intelligent.

    Campaigning skill correlates very poorly, perhaps even inversely, with skill at governing.
    I think the bigotry stuff is an excuse. Obama had no problems there.

    Democrats really need to STOP seeing everything through the prism of race, gender and sexuality.

    It really pisses a lot of people off and is BS.
    A majority of Americans have voted for them.
    But barely scraped through where it mattered and went backwards in other areas. And don't forget Hillary won the national vote too.

    Humility is needed.
    So what? Your double standards are immense. When Trump won on tiny margins whilst losing the popular vote it was all about the “silent majority” which the “liberal elite” is out of touch with. And yet when Biden (probably) wins on small margins but with the most votes in history, its not “maybe these Trump supporters should seek common ground with city folk” its “the left should stop talking about race and gender”.

    We discussed this last night, BOTH sides need to have some humility and seek common ground.
  • If Biden wins over 300 it will not be tiny margins.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291

    Melania Trump looks well pleased on the BBC clip. Presumably can't wait to get out of WH.

    And get the son of a bitch into the divorce courts? :D
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652

    Foxy said:

    Kamala Harris was a shit choice for VP. I reckon she cost the Democrats a lot of ground.

    Possibly so. A bit too Black, Indian, Female, and Californian for the swing voters.

    She may well be a very good VP though. She seems quite feisty and intelligent.

    Campaigning skill correlates very poorly, perhaps even inversely, with skill at governing.
    I think the bigotry stuff is an excuse. Obama had no problems there.

    Democrats really need to STOP seeing everything through the prism of race, gender and sexuality.

    It really pisses a lot of people off and is BS.
    A majority of Americans have voted for them.
    But barely scraped through where it mattered and went backwards in other areas. And don't forget Hillary won the national vote too.

    Humility is needed.
    From the losers.
  • Foxy said:

    Kamala Harris was a shit choice for VP. I reckon she cost the Democrats a lot of ground.

    Possibly so. A bit too Black, Indian, Female, and Californian for the swing voters.

    She may well be a very good VP though. She seems quite feisty and intelligent.

    Campaigning skill correlates very poorly, perhaps even inversely, with skill at governing.
    I think the bigotry stuff is an excuse. Obama had no problems there.

    Democrats really need to STOP seeing everything through the prism of race, gender and sexuality.

    It really pisses a lot of people off and is BS.
    A majority of Americans have voted for them.
    But barely scraped through where it mattered and went backwards in other areas. And don't forget Hillary won the national vote too.

    Humility is needed.
    Only a sense of entitlement from Dems. Same as always with the left. Will fail as ever
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    Alistair said:

    Mal557 said:

    I think someone on here, Alistair? was projecting about a 150K win for Biden in PA. Seems Bidens team are now thinking the same,,,,great minds :)
    https://twitter.com/BresPolitico/status/1324098012172439552

    I said 60K earlier this morning. Looks like Alistair was on the nail. We will see.
    I feel a lot of people though I was taking the piss when I said Biden by 180k a few hours ago.
    At about 3am this morning during the PB Zoom session I said that I thought commentators were writing off Biden too soon and the betting markets were overshooting. Virtually rhe only right call I've made in this election.
  • Hopefully, Pelosi will go. She and her acid tongue and San Francisco liberalism has been a huge turnoff for the Dems in the House.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/house/524503-centrist-democrats-talk-leadership-changes-after-negative-election-results?amp#click=https://t.co/x1QzSgT7Jb
This discussion has been closed.