One of the aspects of this election that has only become apparent during the day is that information coming Biden’s three primary targets, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan has been impacted by decisions of their Republican controlled state legislatures to forbid any counting of the mass of advance votes before the election day.
Comments
@Mal557 re the NY Times on the Arizona vote: I think you looked at the absentee vote difference, not the overall state difference. State difference is 90K with 14% left.
I could be a TV pundit
I would look out for any shenanigans around the NE-02 electoral vote. The Republican Governor gets to appoint the electors and it is unclear from the wording what happens if the NE-02 elector votes against the vote, whether their vote still stands. So you might get a 269-269 tie.
It's entirely possible, though, that NV falls to the Republicans. And equally possible the Dems pick up one of PA, NC and GA.
+ ME-02, AK, PA, GA, NC = 268
Does Nebraska have a law against faithless electors?
I won’t go bail for Cummings.
https://twitter.com/PoliticoRyan/status/1324039912153337858
Re your point, I have said it before but I will repeat it - can 2018 be used as a template for 2020? How many of those 2018 VBMs have already put in their ballot early on in 2020? I just don't think you can take 2018's voting behaviour and extrapolate it to 2020.
Also, and you can take from this what you will, the Republicans seem to have given a outline of why they are confident re AZ. The Biden campaign seems to have omitted it from that outline.
We shall see.
The fox one in particular was incredible. It was like they had only interviewed the Biden campaign, but they claim it was 120k interviews.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-president.html
The wording is unclear. I tried to get on the Nebraska legislature website but couldn't. Here is the wording I picked up:
"Presidential electors in Nebraska are required to cast their ballots for the candidate who won the highest number of votes in their district. A presidential elector who refuses to present a ballot, who attempts to present an unmarked ballot, or who casts a vote contrary to that requirement vacates the office of elector. In such a case, the governor will appoint a replacement."
What I asked FPT was that, if the elector casts their vote for a different candidate, is that vote still valid or discarded? My reading of this is it implies it would be accepted and the elector is dismissed afterwards.
According to Elect Project, 1.2m Dem Mail Ballots were requested in AZ, but only 923,805 have been returned.
I would be staggered if at least some of them didn't trickle in.
You're really betting that USPS has been incredibly efficient in Arizona compared to (a) the rest of the country and (b) the history of 2018.
1.06 Dem in both.
https://twitter.com/JamesClayton5/status/1324045783780323329?s=20
I'd want a fatter assurance in AZ and NV I think.
I agree that WI and MI are probably done.
Dem 1.1
If Trump order USPS to stop delivering mail to the count in Arizona, then the Supreme Court will end up getting involved.
If that were to lead to Trump winning, I suspect it would result in civil war in the US.
https://twitter.com/akuaku768/status/1324041101745991680?s=20
If it’s this close under these circumstances, it’s very hard to believe he would have lost in 2016.
One state - he might give it a shot. Two, I think he gives up.
If Trump wins those 2 plus Georgia and NC would he win?
With Biden winning Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada etc
The incumbent Veep? He would have won the primaries.
The problem was, he thought he couldn’t against Clinton. What’s intriguing in retrospect is just how formidable everyone, even those who knew her well, thought she was.
It may be that Boris's attitude on Brexit/coronavirus are in creative symbiosis.
If this is the best that Biden can do under much more favourable circumstances I suspect that he would have lost handily 4 years ago.
Also, I mentioned before the conversation I had around the rushing of the Comey Barrett SC appointment. The Trump campaign have been wargaming for contested elections for months and will know what to target and where.
Too many things mixed together there.
But yeah, dunno.
Emphasis on ‘loser.’
Hopefully, greater emphasis on loser by tomorrow.
PS I haven't posted today till now because I've been in a huge sulk about being completely wrong in predicting a Biden landslide. Kudos to those super-forecasters who did much better than me. Still, if Biden wins I'll live with it.
Glad I had a busy day of work today so didn't pay much attention too all this nonsense
I'm sure there are going to be quite a few of them.
But this time, they’re saying it for Trump. He effectively needs to hold all the states still in play, and he’s behind in two of them.
Biden's coalition was a mixture of the liberal wealthy, highly educated upper middle class, graduate BLM protestors and poor, below average income voters and non whites.
Trump's coalition was made up of the white working and lower middle class in rural and small towns and Cuban Americans
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-president.html