Biden moves to an 84% chance of victory on the exchanges as the scale of his likely victory becomes

System

Biden moves to an 84% chance of victory on the exchanges as the scale of his likely victory becomes clearer – politicalbetting.com

One of the aspects of this election that has only become apparent during the day is that information coming Biden’s three primary targets, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan has been impacted by decisions of their Republican controlled state legislatures to forbid any counting of the mass of advance votes before the election day.

Read the full story here

Mexicanpete

First, like the 46th President of the United States.

rcs1000

Georgia: the lead is down to 90,000 votes with c. 280,000 remaining.

eek

First like Biden (eventually)

Pro_Rata

First (or second?). Like Biden or Trump

CorrectHorseBattery

So touch wood, it seems like Biden HQ had a strategy, they executed said strategy and said strategy worked.

eek

rcs1000 said:

Georgia: the lead is down to 90,000 votes with c. 280,000 remaining.

If they are postal votes and split 2:1 as they seem to do it's going to be close.

HYUFD

It does look like Biden has probably won now but likely by only 270 to 268 votes, the closest EC margin since 1876, so not much scale to his win

MrEd

FPT

@Mal557 re the NY Times on the Arizona vote: I think you looked at the absentee vote difference, not the overall state difference. State difference is 90K with 14% left.

rcs1000

rcs1000 said:

Georgia: the lead is down to 90,000 votes with c. 280,000 remaining.

If Trump holds on in Georgia, it will likely be with a lead substantially smaller than the number of ballots that USPS failed to deliver.

kle4

Stark_Dawning said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1324032684197322752?s=20
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1324033189002809344?s=20
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1324034077016707072?s=20

What happened with Steve Baker? He was practically in tears the other days, declaring that his meeting with the scientists had utterly convinced him of Boris's lockdown wisdom.

He remembered he was Brexit Hard Man, and Brexit Hard Men don't back down?

Mexicanpete

HYUFD said:

It does look like Biden has probably won now but likely by only 270 to 268 votes, the closest EC margin since 1876, so not much scale to his win

How do you see your way to that figure?

Pro_Rata

Pro_Rata said:

First (or second?). Like Biden or Trump

Or 4th like the Green or Kanye or someone else.

I could be a TV pundit

numbertwelve

rcs1000 said:

Georgia: the lead is down to 90,000 votes with c. 280,000 remaining.

That sounds - doable?

rcs1000

MrEd said:

FPT

@Mal557 re the NY Times on the Arizona vote: I think you looked at the absentee vote difference, not the overall state difference. State difference is 90K with 14% left.

You still keep ignoring votes that haven't even been received in Arizona. In 2018 they broke very heavily for the Dems.

Mal557

MrEd said:

FPT

@Mal557 re the NY Times on the Arizona vote: I think you looked at the absentee vote difference, not the overall state difference. State difference is 90K with 14% left.

oops, clearly i need more than 3 hours sleep, thanks for the point out

rcs1000

numbertwelve said:

rcs1000 said:

Georgia: the lead is down to 90,000 votes with c. 280,000 remaining.

That sounds - doable?

It'll be very close.

MrEd

HYUFD said:

It does look like Biden has probably won now but likely by only 270 to 268 votes, the closest EC margin since 1876, so not much scale to his win

FPT

I would look out for any shenanigans around the NE-02 electoral vote. The Republican Governor gets to appoint the electors and it is unclear from the wording what happens if the NE-02 elector votes against the vote, whether their vote still stands. So you might get a 269-269 tie.

FrancisUrquhart

Government say the Grocer story demanding cordoning off non-essential aisles is Fake News.

MaxPB

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:

Georgia: the lead is down to 90,000 votes with c. 280,000 remaining.

If Trump holds on in Georgia, it will likely be with a lead substantially smaller than the number of ballots that USPS failed to deliver.

They should definitely get counted.

rcs1000

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

It does look like Biden has probably won now but likely by only 270 to 268 votes, the closest EC margin since 1876, so not much scale to his win

How do you see your way to that figure?

He's assuming NV is a hold, AZ, WI and MI are Dem pickups, and PA, NC and GA stay red.

It's entirely possible, though, that NV falls to the Republicans. And equally possible the Dems pick up one of PA, NC and GA.

ydoethur

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:

Georgia: the lead is down to 90,000 votes with c. 280,000 remaining.

If Trump holds on in Georgia, it will likely be with a lead substantially smaller than the number of ballots that USPS failed to deliver.

So - there has been massive fraud and vote rigging, just not by Biden.

HYUFD

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

It does look like Biden has probably won now but likely by only 270 to 268 votes, the closest EC margin since 1876, so not much scale to his win

How do you see your way to that figure?

Of the 8 states remaining to call Biden wins Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona where he is ahead and Trump wins Georgia, North Carolina, Alaska and Pennsylvania where he is ahead, that comes to Biden 270 EC votes and Trump 268 EC votes

No_Offence_Alan

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

It does look like Biden has probably won now but likely by only 270 to 268 votes, the closest EC margin since 1876, so not much scale to his win

How do you see your way to that figure?

Trump is on 213 at the moment.
+ ME-02, AK, PA, GA, NC = 268

FrancisUrquhart

So when do the court cases start?

rcs1000

MrEd said:

HYUFD said:

It does look like Biden has probably won now but likely by only 270 to 268 votes, the closest EC margin since 1876, so not much scale to his win

FPT

I would look out for any shenanigans around the NE-02 electoral vote. The Republican Governor gets to appoint the electors and it is unclear from the wording what happens if the NE-02 elector votes against the vote, whether their vote still stands. So you might get a 269-269 tie.

That won't happen, because it would cause an extraordinary constitutional crisis.

Does Nebraska have a law against faithless electors?

ydoethur

FrancisUrquhart said:

Government say the Grocer story demanding cordoning off non-essential aisles is Fake News.

Surely we all knew that? Even Boris Johnson isn’t quite as useless as Mark Drakeford.

I won’t go bail for Cummings.

Mal557

So Trumps best route now is GA, NC, PA and NV perhaps? or replace NV with AZ. GA and NC look like wins for him to me, GA close again but no flip.

Anabobazina

Crikey GA could be close.

SouthamObserver

Interesting table on where Biden and Trump have harvested their votes ...
https://twitter.com/PoliticoRyan/status/1324039912153337858

not_on_fire

No_Offence_Alan said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

It does look like Biden has probably won now but likely by only 270 to 268 votes, the closest EC margin since 1876, so not much scale to his win

How do you see your way to that figure?

Trump is on 213 at the moment.
+ ME-02, AK, PA, GA, NC = 268

Far too early to be calling PA or GA for Trump

MrEd

rcs1000 said:

MrEd said:

FPT

@Mal557 re the NY Times on the Arizona vote: I think you looked at the absentee vote difference, not the overall state difference. State difference is 90K with 14% left.

You still keep ignoring votes that haven't even been received in Arizona. In 2018 they broke very heavily for the Dems.

For this, I was just pointing out to the difference to @Mal557 on his reading of the NYT data.

Re your point, I have said it before but I will repeat it - can 2018 be used as a template for 2020? How many of those 2018 VBMs have already put in their ballot early on in 2020? I just don't think you can take 2018's voting behaviour and extrapolate it to 2020.

Also, and you can take from this what you will, the Republicans seem to have given a outline of why they are confident re AZ. The Biden campaign seems to have omitted it from that outline.

CorrectHorseBattery

I believe Biden could have won 290+ if it weren't for Trump's antics

HYUFD

rcs1000 said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

It does look like Biden has probably won now but likely by only 270 to 268 votes, the closest EC margin since 1876, so not much scale to his win

How do you see your way to that figure?

He's assuming NV is a hold, AZ, WI and MI are Dem pickups, and PA, NC and GA stay red.

It's entirely possible, though, that NV falls to the Republicans. And equally possible the Dems pick up one of PA, NC and GA.

If Trump wins Nevada then he would be re elected yes, Nevada could now be the tipping point state, if Biden overturns one of the other states Trump is ahead and holds Nevada that simply increases the scale of his lead, he will already have won

OnlyLivingBoy

SouthamObserver said:

Interesting table on where Biden and Trump have harvested their votes ...
https://twitter.com/PoliticoRyan/status/1324039912153337858

Wait I thought Democrats were all elitists who hate the working class? Now I'm confused.

Anabobazina

HYUFD said:

It does look like Biden has probably won now but likely by only 270 to 268 votes, the closest EC margin since 1876, so not much scale to his win

If that is right you would be within 1 EV of each with your tie forecast.

We shall see.

FrancisUrquhart

Might want to be careful on exit poll based stuff...those figures from the fox and cnn exit polls don't look anywhere near in line with actual sentiment as expressed at the ballot box...they all pointed to Biden landslide.

The fox one in particular was incredible. It was like they had only interviewed the Biden campaign, but they claim it was 120k interviews.

HYUFD

SouthamObserver said:

Interesting table on where Biden and Trump have harvested their votes ...
https://twitter.com/PoliticoRyan/status/1324039912153337858

Misleading, Biden won the richest voters earning over $200k a year 47% to 43% for Trump and the poorest voters earning under $50k, Trump did best amongst middle income voters earning from $50k to $200k

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-president.html

MrEd

rcs1000 said:

MrEd said:

HYUFD said:

It does look like Biden has probably won now but likely by only 270 to 268 votes, the closest EC margin since 1876, so not much scale to his win

FPT

I would look out for any shenanigans around the NE-02 electoral vote. The Republican Governor gets to appoint the electors and it is unclear from the wording what happens if the NE-02 elector votes against the vote, whether their vote still stands. So you might get a 269-269 tie.

That won't happen, because it would cause an extraordinary constitutional crisis.

Does Nebraska have a law against faithless electors?

I think the excuse that would be used is that the Ds executed widespread fraud and therefore they could not, in conscience, vote for Biden. Which would be appalling and, you are right, wrong but is a possibility.

The wording is unclear. I tried to get on the Nebraska legislature website but couldn't. Here is the wording I picked up:

"Presidential electors in Nebraska are required to cast their ballots for the candidate who won the highest number of votes in their district. A presidential elector who refuses to present a ballot, who attempts to present an unmarked ballot, or who casts a vote contrary to that requirement vacates the office of elector. In such a case, the governor will appoint a replacement."

What I asked FPT was that, if the elector casts their vote for a different candidate, is that vote still valid or discarded? My reading of this is it implies it would be accepted and the elector is dismissed afterwards.

ydoethur

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I believe Biden could have won 290+ if it weren't for Trump's antics

I think what this is showing with truly brutal clarity is that Biden should have run four years ago.

rcs1000

MrEd said:

rcs1000 said:

MrEd said:

FPT

@Mal557 re the NY Times on the Arizona vote: I think you looked at the absentee vote difference, not the overall state difference. State difference is 90K with 14% left.

You still keep ignoring votes that haven't even been received in Arizona. In 2018 they broke very heavily for the Dems.

For this, I was just pointing out to the difference to @Mal557 on his reading of the NYT data.

Re your point, I have said it before but I will repeat it - can 2018 be used as a template for 2020? How many of those 2018 VBMs have already put in their ballot early on in 2020? I just don't think you can take 2018's voting behaviour and extrapolate it to 2020.

Also, and you can take from this what you will, the Republicans seem to have given a outline of why they are confident re AZ. The Biden campaign seems to have omitted it from that outline.

Given how slow USPS has been across the States, it would be staggering if there weren't at least some to come.

According to Elect Project, 1.2m Dem Mail Ballots were requested in AZ, but only 923,805 have been returned.

I would be staggered if at least some of them didn't trickle in.

You're really betting that USPS has been incredibly efficient in Arizona compared to (a) the rest of the country and (b) the history of 2018.

alex_

rcs1000 said:

MrEd said:

HYUFD said:

It does look like Biden has probably won now but likely by only 270 to 268 votes, the closest EC margin since 1876, so not much scale to his win

FPT

I would look out for any shenanigans around the NE-02 electoral vote. The Republican Governor gets to appoint the electors and it is unclear from the wording what happens if the NE-02 elector votes against the vote, whether their vote still stands. So you might get a 269-269 tie.

That won't happen, because it would cause an extraordinary constitutional crisis.

Does Nebraska have a law against faithless electors?

That is true but you can see how this sort of thing could be a problem given the different way that Nebraska and Maine allocate their votes. That said, if something dodgy happened with the NE vote, presumably that would be countered by the ME voter doing the same and cancelling it out.

bigjohnowls

Trump doesnt know recount rules

MrEd

rcs1000 said:

MrEd said:

rcs1000 said:

MrEd said:

FPT

@Mal557 re the NY Times on the Arizona vote: I think you looked at the absentee vote difference, not the overall state difference. State difference is 90K with 14% left.

You still keep ignoring votes that haven't even been received in Arizona. In 2018 they broke very heavily for the Dems.

For this, I was just pointing out to the difference to @Mal557 on his reading of the NYT data.

Re your point, I have said it before but I will repeat it - can 2018 be used as a template for 2020? How many of those 2018 VBMs have already put in their ballot early on in 2020? I just don't think you can take 2018's voting behaviour and extrapolate it to 2020.

Also, and you can take from this what you will, the Republicans seem to have given a outline of why they are confident re AZ. The Biden campaign seems to have omitted it from that outline.

Given how slow USPS has been across the States, it would be staggering if there weren't at least some to come.

According to Elect Project, 1.2m Dem Mail Ballots were requested in AZ, but only 923,805 have been returned.

I would be staggered if at least some of them didn't trickle in.

You're really betting that USPS has been incredibly efficient in Arizona compared to (a) the rest of the country and (b) the history of 2018.

I wouldn't bet anything on USPS given what has been happening. That has the prospects of going all the way to the SC.

Anabobazina

Betfair thinks it's over in MI and WI.

1.06 Dem in both.

DavidL

ydoethur said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I believe Biden could have won 290+ if it weren't for Trump's antics

I think what this is showing with truly brutal clarity is that Biden should have run four years ago.

He was too old.

not_on_fire

FrancisUrquhart said:

Might want to be careful on exit poll based stuff...those figures from the fox and cnn exit polls don't look anywhere near in line with actual sentiment as expressed at the ballot box...they all pointed to Biden landslide.

The fox one in particular was incredible. It was like they had only interviewed the Biden campaign, but they claim it was 120k interviews.

Nate Silver warned to ignore the exit polls. He was right.

kle4

bigjohnowls said:

Trump doesnt know recount rules

I think there's a lot about elections he does not know, his bafflement and anger at things is genuine.

CarlottaVance

Not sure its "Breaking" - but perspective nonetheless https://twitter.com/JamesClayton5/status/1324045080592703488?s=20
https://twitter.com/JamesClayton5/status/1324045783780323329?s=20

Anabobazina

I think the threader might be a bit premature by OGH.

I'd want a fatter assurance in AZ and NV I think.

I agree that WI and MI are probably done.

Anabobazina

Nevada

Dem 1.1

OnlyLivingBoy

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Interesting table on where Biden and Trump have harvested their votes ...
https://twitter.com/PoliticoRyan/status/1324039912153337858

Misleading, Biden won the richest voters earning over $200k a year 47% to 43% for Trump and the poorest voters earning under $50k, Trump did best amongst middle income voters earning from $50k to $200k

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-president.html

$200k a year is middle income? You move in pretty exclusive circles!

ydoethur

OnlyLivingBoy said:

SouthamObserver said:

Interesting table on where Biden and Trump have harvested their votes ...
https://twitter.com/PoliticoRyan/status/1324039912153337858

Wait I thought Democrats were all elitists who hate the working class? Now I'm confused.

They have a brutal, unreasoning hatred of people who pay $750 a year in taxes.

No_Offence_Alan

not_on_fire said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

It does look like Biden has probably won now but likely by only 270 to 268 votes, the closest EC margin since 1876, so not much scale to his win

How do you see your way to that figure?

Trump is on 213 at the moment.
+ ME-02, AK, PA, GA, NC = 268

Far too early to be calling PA or GA for Trump

I'm not making a call, I'm showing how Trump could get to 268.

Nigelb

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:

Georgia: the lead is down to 90,000 votes with c. 280,000 remaining.

If Trump holds on in Georgia, it will likely be with a lead substantially smaller than the number of ballots that USPS failed to deliver.

What happened with those in the end - were they found ?

rcs1000

MrEd said:

rcs1000 said:

MrEd said:

rcs1000 said:

MrEd said:

FPT

@Mal557 re the NY Times on the Arizona vote: I think you looked at the absentee vote difference, not the overall state difference. State difference is 90K with 14% left.

You still keep ignoring votes that haven't even been received in Arizona. In 2018 they broke very heavily for the Dems.

For this, I was just pointing out to the difference to @Mal557 on his reading of the NYT data.

Re your point, I have said it before but I will repeat it - can 2018 be used as a template for 2020? How many of those 2018 VBMs have already put in their ballot early on in 2020? I just don't think you can take 2018's voting behaviour and extrapolate it to 2020.

Also, and you can take from this what you will, the Republicans seem to have given a outline of why they are confident re AZ. The Biden campaign seems to have omitted it from that outline.

Given how slow USPS has been across the States, it would be staggering if there weren't at least some to come.

According to Elect Project, 1.2m Dem Mail Ballots were requested in AZ, but only 923,805 have been returned.

I would be staggered if at least some of them didn't trickle in.

You're really betting that USPS has been incredibly efficient in Arizona compared to (a) the rest of the country and (b) the history of 2018.

I wouldn't bet anything on USPS given what has been happening. That has the prospects of going all the way to the SC.

Arizona law is very clear. Ballots received in the week after the election, but postmarked on the day or before, are valid. The Supreme Court won't overturn that.

If Trump order USPS to stop delivering mail to the count in Arizona, then the Supreme Court will end up getting involved.

If that were to lead to Trump winning, I suspect it would result in civil war in the US.

HYUFD

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Interesting table on where Biden and Trump have harvested their votes ...
https://twitter.com/PoliticoRyan/status/1324039912153337858

Misleading, Biden won the richest voters earning over $200k a year 47% to 43% for Trump and the poorest voters earning under $50k, Trump did best amongst middle income voters earning from $50k to $200k

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-president.html

The richest voters earning over $200k actually voted for Biden

https://twitter.com/akuaku768/status/1324041101745991680?s=20

ydoethur

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I believe Biden could have won 290+ if it weren't for Trump's antics

I think what this is showing with truly brutal clarity is that Biden should have run four years ago.

He was too old.

And he isn’t now?

If it’s this close under these circumstances, it’s very hard to believe he would have lost in 2016.

numbertwelve

Anabobazina said:

Betfair thinks it's over in MI and WI.

1.06 Dem in both.

Yep. All down to PA, GA, NV, AZ now. And NC. But I’m not expecting NC to flip.

DennisBets

Klopp, Salah and Andy Durso seen advising the Trump legal team.

MikeL

The big thing is that if Biden wins AZ and PA (plus MI, WI) then Trump would have to overturn two states in the Courts.

One state - he might give it a shot. Two, I think he gives up.

rcs1000

Anabobazina said:

Nevada

Dem 1.1

I'd sell that. Although maybe someone knows something I don't.

CorrectHorseBattery

Biden would have walked it four years ago IMHO

alex_

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Biden would have walked it four years ago IMHO

Would he have beaten Hillary though?

MrEd

trump contesting Wisconsin. Claiming irregularities in several counties

alex_

MrEd said:

trump contesting Wisconsin. Claiming irregularities in several counties

He's just talking about the "vote dump" stuff he's seen on twitter. He'll believe anything he sees on there. For somebody who goes on and on about "fake news" he's incredibly bad at actually spotting it when he sees it.

SirNorfolkPassmore

kle4 said:

bigjohnowls said:

Trump doesnt know recount rules

I think there's a lot about elections he does not know, his bafflement and anger at things is genuine.

I don't think it's genuine at all (although doubt he's interested in the detail). In plain sight he was always pretty clear that, if he was on the wrong end of a close result, he'd simply throw as much shade as possible to delegitimise.

HYUFD

OnlyLivingBoy said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Interesting table on where Biden and Trump have harvested their votes ...
https://twitter.com/PoliticoRyan/status/1324039912153337858

Misleading, Biden won the richest voters earning over $200k a year 47% to 43% for Trump and the poorest voters earning under $50k, Trump did best amongst middle income voters earning from $50k to $200k

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-president.html

$200k a year is middle income? You move in pretty exclusive circles!

Under $200k a year household income is middle income in the USA, 7% of households as the data shows of US voters have household income over $200k, a husband and a wife each earning £70,000 a year in the UK would have been on over $200 000 a year household income in US terms only a few years ago when you got $1.5 to the £1

Time_to_Leave

MrEd said:

trump contesting Wisconsin. Claiming irregularities in several counties

By “irregularities” does he mean votes for a different candidate?

noisywinter

Not been following things too much, but noting that betfair makes Reps about 3 in Pennsylvania and 3 ish in Arizona

If Trump wins those 2 plus Georgia and NC would he win?

With Biden winning Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada etc

ydoethur

alex_ said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Biden would have walked it four years ago IMHO

Would he have beaten Hillary though?

Well, Bernie Sanders gave her quite a fright and he’s not even a Democrat.

The incumbent Veep? He would have won the primaries.

The problem was, he thought he couldn’t against Clinton. What’s intriguing in retrospect is just how formidable everyone, even those who knew her well, thought she was.

Casino_Royale

FPT - those voting against Lockdown II seem like the usual suspects to me. Theresa May abstained though who isn't. He obviously wants to avoid 55 letters as he's been very generous to those voting against him.

It may be that Boris's attitude on Brexit/coronavirus are in creative symbiosis.

Benpointer

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:

Georgia: the lead is down to 90,000 votes with c. 280,000 remaining.

If Trump holds on in Georgia, it will likely be with a lead substantially smaller than the number of ballots that USPS failed to deliver.

They should definitely get counted.

Isn't the issue that the ballots weren't delivered to the voter, so we don't know how they would have voted, or have I misunderstood?

DavidL

ydoethur said:

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I believe Biden could have won 290+ if it weren't for Trump's antics

I think what this is showing with truly brutal clarity is that Biden should have run four years ago.

He was too old.

And he isn’t now?

If it’s this close under these circumstances, it’s very hard to believe he would have lost in 2016.

I don't know you can say that. Trump the outsider was a lot easier to project your hopes onto than Trump the President. Plus 4 years ago Biden would have had to actually go out and campaign, which might have been embarrassing. Plus I have heard that America has had this bug going around and quite a lot of people seem to blame Trump for it.

If this is the best that Biden can do under much more favourable circumstances I suspect that he would have lost handily 4 years ago.

MrEd

rcs1000 said:

MrEd said:

rcs1000 said:

MrEd said:

rcs1000 said:

MrEd said:

FPT

@Mal557 re the NY Times on the Arizona vote: I think you looked at the absentee vote difference, not the overall state difference. State difference is 90K with 14% left.

You still keep ignoring votes that haven't even been received in Arizona. In 2018 they broke very heavily for the Dems.

For this, I was just pointing out to the difference to @Mal557 on his reading of the NYT data.

Re your point, I have said it before but I will repeat it - can 2018 be used as a template for 2020? How many of those 2018 VBMs have already put in their ballot early on in 2020? I just don't think you can take 2018's voting behaviour and extrapolate it to 2020.

Also, and you can take from this what you will, the Republicans seem to have given a outline of why they are confident re AZ. The Biden campaign seems to have omitted it from that outline.

Given how slow USPS has been across the States, it would be staggering if there weren't at least some to come.

According to Elect Project, 1.2m Dem Mail Ballots were requested in AZ, but only 923,805 have been returned.

I would be staggered if at least some of them didn't trickle in.

You're really betting that USPS has been incredibly efficient in Arizona compared to (a) the rest of the country and (b) the history of 2018.

I wouldn't bet anything on USPS given what has been happening. That has the prospects of going all the way to the SC.

Arizona law is very clear. Ballots received in the week after the election, but postmarked on the day or before, are valid. The Supreme Court won't overturn that.

If Trump order USPS to stop delivering mail to the count in Arizona, then the Supreme Court will end up getting involved.

If that were to lead to Trump winning, I suspect it would result in civil war in the US.

It might do but I doubt that would stop Trump.

Also, I mentioned before the conversation I had around the rushing of the Comey Barrett SC appointment. The Trump campaign have been wargaming for contested elections for months and will know what to target and where.

Gallowgate

What a shit show.

ydoethur

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - those voting against Lockdown II seem like the usual suspects to me. Theresa May abstained though who isn't. He obviously wants to avoid 55 letters as he's been very generous to those voting against him.

It may be that Boris's attitude on Brexit/coronavirus are in creative symbiosis.

How? Has he expelled all the rebels from the party?

Mal557

MrEd said:

trump contesting Wisconsin. Claiming irregularities in several counties

As he's within 1% he's within his rights for a recount. Lost by about the same amount of votes as he won in 2016. This election will still be going on when the mid terms start

alex_

ydoethur said:

alex_ said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Biden would have walked it four years ago IMHO

Would he have beaten Hillary though?

Well, Bernie Sanders gave her quite a fright and he’s not even a Democrat.

The incumbent Veep? He would have won the primaries.

The problem was, he thought he couldn’t against Clinton. What’s intriguing in retrospect is just how formidable everyone, even those who knew her well, thought she was.

Wasn't part of the fear that Sanders would come through the middle?

MrEd

alex_ said:

MrEd said:

trump contesting Wisconsin. Claiming irregularities in several counties

He's just talking about the "vote dump" stuff he's seen on twitter. He'll believe anything he sees on there. For somebody who goes on and on about "fake news" he's incredibly bad at actually spotting it when he sees it.

Yes. He should admit defeat in WI unless he has actual hard evidence.

kle4

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

kle4 said:

bigjohnowls said:

Trump doesnt know recount rules

I think there's a lot about elections he does not know, his bafflement and anger at things is genuine.

I don't think it's genuine at all (although doubt he's interested in the detail). In plain sight he was always pretty clear that, if he was on the wrong end of a close result, he'd simply throw as much shade as possible to delegitimise.

Oh I think that is true too, I just also think that he genuinely doesn't know what is permissable and what isn't, nor is he interested in finding out.

Casino_Royale

SouthamObserver said:

Interesting table on where Biden and Trump have harvested their votes ...
https://twitter.com/PoliticoRyan/status/1324039912153337858

Not useful unless you also break down by rural/urban, education and race.

Too many things mixed together there.

Anabobazina

rcs1000 said:

Anabobazina said:

Nevada

Dem 1.1

I'd sell that. Although maybe someone knows something I don't.

I tend to pay more attention to very short odds when counting is in – on the "someone always knows, someone always tells" principle.

But yeah, dunno.

Anabobazina

MrEd said:

trump contesting Wisconsin. Claiming irregularities in several counties

Yawn. Calling recounts just makes you look like a sore loser.

numbertwelve

noisywinter said:

Not been following things too much, but noting that betfair makes Reps about 3 in Pennsylvania and 3 ish in Arizona

If Trump wins those 2 plus Georgia and NC would he win?

With Biden winning Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada etc

No. He needs one of AZ or NV.

Sunil_Prasannan

Google (via AP) have called AZ for Biden since this morning, BBC haven't called it.

Anabobazina

noisywinter said:

Not been following things too much, but noting that betfair makes Reps about 3 in Pennsylvania and 3 ish in Arizona

If Trump wins those 2 plus Georgia and NC would he win?

With Biden winning Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada etc

Yes.

ydoethur

Anabobazina said:

MrEd said:

trump contesting Wisconsin. Claiming irregularities in several counties

Yawn. Calling recounts just makes you look like a sore loser.

Well, he is.

Emphasis on ‘loser.’

Hopefully, greater emphasis on loser by tomorrow.

Anabobazina

numbertwelve said:

noisywinter said:

Not been following things too much, but noting that betfair makes Reps about 3 in Pennsylvania and 3 ish in Arizona

If Trump wins those 2 plus Georgia and NC would he win?

With Biden winning Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada etc

No. He needs one of AZ or NV.

No, he doesn't.

Northern_Al

SouthamObserver said:

Interesting table on where Biden and Trump have harvested their votes ...
https://twitter.com/PoliticoRyan/status/1324039912153337858

If that's accurate, it does somewhat disrupt the favoured narrative of blue collar workers voting for Trump and the liberal elite for Biden. It also puts into question whether identity politics/BLM etc. was such a significant player. It looks a bit traditional - people voting for who they think will make them better off financially.

PS I haven't posted today till now because I've been in a huge sulk about being completely wrong in predicting a Biden landslide. Kudos to those super-forecasters who did much better than me. Still, if Biden wins I'll live with it.

HYUFD

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

Interesting table on where Biden and Trump have harvested their votes ...
https://twitter.com/PoliticoRyan/status/1324039912153337858

Not useful unless you also break down by rural/urban, education and race.

Too many things mixed together there.

Exactly, Biden won the richest voters earning over $200 k a year in household income and graduates and postgraduates and those living in urban and suburban areas, the most wealthy and well educated voters in the US voted for Biden this year as did the poorest voters, those in the middle in terms of income and who did not go to college and who live in small towns and rural areas voted for Trump

noisywinter

Anabobazina said:

noisywinter said:

Not been following things too much, but noting that betfair makes Reps about 3 in Pennsylvania and 3 ish in Arizona

If Trump wins those 2 plus Georgia and NC would he win?

With Biden winning Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada etc

Yes.

Thank you

Glad I had a busy day of work today so didn't pay much attention too all this nonsense

Andy_JS

Looks like both candidates could still win the election. There are so many votes still to count.

numbertwelve

Anabobazina said:

numbertwelve said:

noisywinter said:

Not been following things too much, but noting that betfair makes Reps about 3 in Pennsylvania and 3 ish in Arizona

If Trump wins those 2 plus Georgia and NC would he win?

With Biden winning Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada etc

No. He needs one of AZ or NV.

No, he doesn't.

He does if Biden wins MI and WI?

DAlexander

rcs1000 said:

MrEd said:

rcs1000 said:

MrEd said:

rcs1000 said:

MrEd said:

FPT

@Mal557 re the NY Times on the Arizona vote: I think you looked at the absentee vote difference, not the overall state difference. State difference is 90K with 14% left.

You still keep ignoring votes that haven't even been received in Arizona. In 2018 they broke very heavily for the Dems.

For this, I was just pointing out to the difference to @Mal557 on his reading of the NYT data.

Re your point, I have said it before but I will repeat it - can 2018 be used as a template for 2020? How many of those 2018 VBMs have already put in their ballot early on in 2020? I just don't think you can take 2018's voting behaviour and extrapolate it to 2020.

Also, and you can take from this what you will, the Republicans seem to have given a outline of why they are confident re AZ. The Biden campaign seems to have omitted it from that outline.

Given how slow USPS has been across the States, it would be staggering if there weren't at least some to come.

According to Elect Project, 1.2m Dem Mail Ballots were requested in AZ, but only 923,805 have been returned.

I would be staggered if at least some of them didn't trickle in.

You're really betting that USPS has been incredibly efficient in Arizona compared to (a) the rest of the country and (b) the history of 2018.

I wouldn't bet anything on USPS given what has been happening. That has the prospects of going all the way to the SC.

Arizona law is very clear. Ballots received in the week after the election, but postmarked on the day or before, are valid. The Supreme Court won't overturn that.

If Trump order USPS to stop delivering mail to the count in Arizona, then the Supreme Court will end up getting involved.

If that were to lead to Trump winning, I suspect it would result in civil war in the US.

What will happen to ballots that don't have a postmark on them?

I'm sure there are going to be quite a few of them.

SirNorfolkPassmore

ydoethur said:

alex_ said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Biden would have walked it four years ago IMHO

Would he have beaten Hillary though?

Well, Bernie Sanders gave her quite a fright and he’s not even a Democrat.

The incumbent Veep? He would have won the primaries.

The problem was, he thought he couldn’t against Clinton. What’s intriguing in retrospect is just how formidable everyone, even those who knew her well, thought she was.

In a lot of ways, she was formidable. Very intelligent, brilliantly connected, great networker, hoovered up endorsements, occupied the moderate ground in a way that made it very difficult for a competitor other than from the left wing (Sanders). But it didn't, ultimately, make the public warm to her, and either her campaign team let her down badly or she rejected their good advice.

Gallowgate

numbertwelve said:

Anabobazina said:

numbertwelve said:

noisywinter said:

Not been following things too much, but noting that betfair makes Reps about 3 in Pennsylvania and 3 ish in Arizona

If Trump wins those 2 plus Georgia and NC would he win?

With Biden winning Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada etc

No. He needs one of AZ or NV.

No, he doesn't.

He does if Biden wins MI and WI?

Yeah Trump gets to 268. He needs either AZ or NV.

Mysticrose

Andy_JS said:

Looks like both candidates could still win the election. There are so many votes still to count.

Yes they 'could' but, frankly, this looks very good for Biden.

No_Offence_Alan

Is anyone actually counting at the moment, or are they all eating doughnuts? I only took one day off work.

ydoethur

Mysticrose said:

Andy_JS said:

Looks like both candidates could still win the election. There are so many votes still to count.

Yes they 'could' but, frankly, this looks very good for Biden.

It’s a bit like last time, when halfway through the night people were saying, ‘Well, Clinton can still win this, but lots of things need to go right for her and they’re not looking promising at the moment.’

But this time, they’re saying it for Trump. He effectively needs to hold all the states still in play, and he’s behind in two of them.

HYUFD

Northern_Al said:

SouthamObserver said:

Interesting table on where Biden and Trump have harvested their votes ...
https://twitter.com/PoliticoRyan/status/1324039912153337858

If that's accurate, it does somewhat disrupt the favoured narrative of blue collar workers voting for Trump and the liberal elite for Biden. It also puts into question whether identity politics/BLM etc. was such a significant player. It looks a bit traditional - people voting for who they think will make them better off financially.

PS I haven't posted today till now because I've been in a huge sulk about being completely wrong in predicting a Biden landslide. Kudos to those super-forecasters who did much better than me. Still, if Biden wins I'll live with it.

Biden won those earning over $200 k a year 47% to 43%, Biden won those with a postgraduate degree 62% to 36% and Biden won those with a Bachelor's Degree 51% to 46%, Trump won those who never attended college 51% to 48%.

Biden's coalition was a mixture of the liberal wealthy, highly educated upper middle class, graduate BLM protestors and poor, below average income voters and non whites.

Trump's coalition was made up of the white working and lower middle class in rural and small towns and Cuban Americans

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-president.html