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Biden moves to an 84% chance of victory on the exchanges as the scale of his likely victory becomes

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Comments

  • kle4 said:

    Johnson will be left deeply exposed now, RIP USA trade deal, it's Brexit capitulation or economic disaster with No Deal on the way. What will he choose?

    His friend in the world gone, populism rejected fairly decisively so far this year, he's a dying breed.

    The pushing of the idea of his friendship with Trump is rather overblown I think. He's said things against Trump in the past, other world leaders have praised or at least feted Trump just as much or more, because he was President of the United States and that's what you do.
    "Britain Trump" Donald called him.
  • Foxy said:

    This applies to the right as well as the left.
    https://twitter.com/joebiden/status/1324112939310264322?s=21

    One of Grandpa Joes best features is his genuine desire for consensus. Perhaps because his formative years predate the current culture war. They were of course forged in an equally divisive time of desegregation and Vietnam War protests.
    Maybe, just maybe, Biden's election is the first rays of the pre-dawn at the end of a dark time.
  • alex_ said:

    CNN: "Trump bleeding GOP support" over his antics and bizarre behaviour.

    But everything he'd done hitherto hadn't affected their support one iota? Better late than never I suppose.
  • Foxy said:

    This applies to the right as well as the left.
    https://twitter.com/joebiden/status/1324112939310264322?s=21

    One of Grandpa Joes best features is his genuine desire for consensus. Perhaps because his formative years predate the current culture war. They were of course forged in an equally divisive time of desegregation and Vietnam War protests.
    Maybe, just maybe, Biden's election is the first rays of the pre-dawn at the end of a dark time.
    Well we've had Jacinda's already, Macron is not far off, 2020s might be the end of populism.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Foxy said:

    This applies to the right as well as the left.
    https://twitter.com/joebiden/status/1324112939310264322?s=21

    One of Grandpa Joes best features is his genuine desire for consensus. Perhaps because his formative years predate the current culture war. They were of course forged in an equally divisive time of desegregation and Vietnam War protests.
    Obama had that, and much good it did him
  • GOP turning in on itself now – briefing the press that Trump's behaviour is unacceptable: it's "an ambulance-chasing routine".

    They're happy to be rid of him.

    Four more years as President would have trashed the GOP.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Nevada

    GOP

    5.1

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,717
    TimT said:

    Foxy said:

    This applies to the right as well as the left.
    https://twitter.com/joebiden/status/1324112939310264322?s=21

    One of Grandpa Joes best features is his genuine desire for consensus. Perhaps because his formative years predate the current culture war. They were of course forged in an equally divisive time of desegregation and Vietnam War protests.
    That desire for consensus was the root of his greatest regret - not letting more witness speak against Clarence Thomas in the confirmation hearings.
    Also his willingness to work with Southern segregationists and to frustrate school bussing*. These were how Kamala skewered him in the Primary debates.

    Actually those were fairly mainstream positions back in the Seventies, but both the Dems and America have substantially moved on over these issues.

    *Bussing to desegregate schools was a very divisive issue when I was at High School in Georgia in the Seventies. Looking back it was opposed on a mixture of economic and racial grounds by most of the parents at my school. Atlanta was majority black when I was there, but at my school there were 3 black kids in a school of 2000. Looking back it was pretty shocking.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410

    Not sure I buy this, but its a well informed source.

    https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1324114540238409728?s=20

    That plan lasted almost as long as the lockdown tiers.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Arizona

    GOP

    5.3
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    Not sure I buy this, but its a well informed source.

    https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1324114540238409728?s=20

    I buy it... but the IF now appears not to have materialised (thankfully)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,129
    alex_ said:

    What news on what's been happening in state legislature races?

    Masses of uncontested seats for a start! But I don't think much has been reported in all the excitement, but for some upsets or notable individual events, like the first trans state senator etc.
  • Johnson seems to have gambled the EU negotiations on Trump and lost badly.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    This applies to the right as well as the left.
    https://twitter.com/joebiden/status/1324112939310264322?s=21

    One of Grandpa Joes best features is his genuine desire for consensus. Perhaps because his formative years predate the current culture war. They were of course forged in an equally divisive time of desegregation and Vietnam War protests.
    Obama had that, and much good it did him
    He did manage to get re-elected though!
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    It's VERY STRANGE all these Bidenistas coming on here now when at 0300 on here they were crying.

    Well done to Biden he's not my sort of thing but he's ok 👍😊

    I made some significant mistakes in the run up to this vote but that wasn't one of them. I had a glorious running battle on here in the early hours telling people not to call it for Trump and that it wasn't over for Biden. Casino Royale and I told people to bet Biden when he went out past 5's (seems incredible now). I'm not claiming glory. Some of my tips were crap.

    And I agree, I thought Biden's speech was very good. Not scintillating but he hit the right tone. This is where America begins to come back from the brink. It won't be easy but it will.
  • It's VERY STRANGE all these Bidenistas coming on here now when at 0300 on here they were crying.

    Well done to Biden he's not my sort of thing but he's ok 👍😊

    I made some significant mistakes in the run up to this vote but that wasn't one of them. I had a glorious running battle on here in the early hours telling people not to call it for Trump and that it wasn't over for Biden. Casino Royale and I told people to bet Biden when he went out past 5's (seems incredible now). I'm not claiming glory. Some of my tips were crap.

    And I agree, I thought Biden's speech was very good. Not scintillating but he hit the right tone. This is where America begins to come back from the brink. It won't be easy but it will.
    You were right to tell us all to calm down, credit to you for being kind about it too as so many aren't.
  • New covid infections update:

    France
    04/11 40,558
    28/10 36,437
    21/10 26,676
    14/10 22,591
    07/10 18,746

    Germany
    04/11 20,218
    28/10 16,202
    21/10 10,457
    14/10 6,063
    07/10 3,994

    Italy
    04/11 30,550
    28/10 24,989
    21/10 15,198
    14/10 7,331
    07/10 3,678

    Poland
    04/11 24,962
    28/10 18,820
    21/10 10,040
    14/10 6,526
    07/10 3,003

    Spain
    04/11 25,177
    28/10 19,765
    21/10 18,138
    14/10 15,409
    07/10 11,985

    UK
    04/11 25,177
    28/10 24,701
    21/10 26,684
    14/10 19,722
    07/10 14,162

    I wonder if the UK's tier system was beginning to work.

    Don’t forget schools have been on half-term as well; that may have slowed things a bit.
  • kle4 said:

    Johnson will be left deeply exposed now, RIP USA trade deal, it's Brexit capitulation or economic disaster with No Deal on the way. What will he choose?

    His friend in the world gone, populism rejected fairly decisively so far this year, he's a dying breed.

    The pushing of the idea of his friendship with Trump is rather overblown I think. He's said things against Trump in the past, other world leaders have praised or at least feted Trump just as much or more, because he was President of the United States and that's what you do. Edit: It was even claimed in a clip from last year that Boris, Macron and Trudeau were all having a good laugh mocking Trump together at a NATO summit.
    I think a lot project their mutual loathing of Johnson & Trump into a presumed friendship. I suspect (almost all of) the UK government would prefer a Biden Presidency to get a functioning USA back. The UK has a substantial trade surplus with the US - we're doing just fine "without" a trade deal....

  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited November 2020
    dixiedean said:



    Erh yes, Labour is projected to win a landslide in Wales based on current polling.

    No need to condescend me either thank you, I haven't condescended you.

    The very first thing you need to realise about Wales is that it will have 10 less constituencies next time.

    Labour now have 28/40.

    Next time they won't get 28/30.

    Labour may proportionately increase their vote in Wales next GE, but it is baked in that the absolute number of Labour seats in Wales will go down.
    Thought it was 32?
    Tbh, I haven't checked recently. It may be 32.

    It was 30 the last time I paid any attention to the long-running saga of re-drawing the Welsh seats to take account of devolution in the last century.

    But, the point still stands. Labour won't get 28/32 seats. They won't get all seats bar 4, even if their vote goes up (as may well be quite likely).
  • They are fighting for the soul of their party.

    As well as to be relevant over the next 4 years.

    For all of HYUFD's praise of Trump, it's not easy to lose as incumbent President. It's only happened three times before today.
    The only other one term party President was dismal Jimmy Carter - Embassy hostages, killer rabbits and national malaise.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,129

    kle4 said:

    Johnson will be left deeply exposed now, RIP USA trade deal, it's Brexit capitulation or economic disaster with No Deal on the way. What will he choose?

    His friend in the world gone, populism rejected fairly decisively so far this year, he's a dying breed.

    The pushing of the idea of his friendship with Trump is rather overblown I think. He's said things against Trump in the past, other world leaders have praised or at least feted Trump just as much or more, because he was President of the United States and that's what you do.
    "Britain Trump" Donald called him.
    I don't know about you, but I don't trust Donald Trump's view on anything, including his view on Boris. Since I watch him a lot I recalll John Oliver on that specific quote of Trumps, and even as someone who detests Boris as well as Trump, he felt, and I would agree, that they are different in some very significant ways, not least as Boris is more complex.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,700

    Johnson seems to have gambled the EU negotiations on Trump and lost badly.

    "Something will turn up" isn't a winning strategy.
  • It is worth noting that to lose as an incumbent is in of itself, quite an indictment.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    kle4 said:

    Johnson will be left deeply exposed now, RIP USA trade deal, it's Brexit capitulation or economic disaster with No Deal on the way. What will he choose?

    His friend in the world gone, populism rejected fairly decisively so far this year, he's a dying breed.

    The pushing of the idea of his friendship with Trump is rather overblown I think. He's said things against Trump in the past, other world leaders have praised or at least feted Trump just as much or more, because he was President of the United States and that's what you do.
    "Britain Trump" Donald called him.
    And up until a month ago Conservative MPs were tweeting their love and support for Donald Trump
  • Johnson seems to have gambled the EU negotiations on Trump and lost badly.

    "Something will turn up" isn't a winning strategy.
    That has been Brexit since day 1.

  • I wonder if the UK's tier system was beginning to work.

    Especially since we were probably testing more than most of them....
  • glwglw Posts: 9,908

    I wonder if the UK's tier system was beginning to work.

    The tier system can work AND we can still exceed hospital capacity. It's no good halting the spread after we've busted though those limits. I suspect it's the hospital admissions that are forcing the lockdown now, as that was meant to be the thing that was used to switch the adaptive triggering of supression measures that Imperial College modelled.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,129
    isam said:
    That's true, and I don't know how much longer we can stave off the inevitable job hit that is coming anyway.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    They are fighting for the soul of their party.

    As well as to be relevant over the next 4 years.

    For all of HYUFD's praise of Trump, it's not easy to lose as incumbent President. It's only happened three times before today.
    He hasn't lost yet!
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    kle4 said:

    alex_ said:

    What news on what's been happening in state legislature races?

    Masses of uncontested seats for a start! But I don't think much has been reported in all the excitement, but for some upsets or notable individual events, like the first trans state senator etc.
    Isn't it supposed to be massively important because of redistricting?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,717

    They are fighting for the soul of their party.

    As well as to be relevant over the next 4 years.

    For all of HYUFD's praise of Trump, it's not easy to lose as incumbent President. It's only happened three times before today.
    The only other one term party President was dismal Jimmy Carter - Embassy hostages, killer rabbits and national malaise.
    George Bush Sr too.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    They are fighting for the soul of their party.

    As well as to be relevant over the next 4 years.

    For all of HYUFD's praise of Trump, it's not easy to lose as incumbent President. It's only happened three times before today.
    He hasn't lost yet!
    Just a matter of time now ...
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662

    It's VERY STRANGE all these Bidenistas coming on here now when at 0300 on here they were crying.

    Well done to Biden he's not my sort of thing but he's ok 👍😊

    I made some significant mistakes in the run up to this vote but that wasn't one of them. I had a glorious running battle on here in the early hours telling people not to call it for Trump and that it wasn't over for Biden. Casino Royale and I told people to bet Biden when he went out past 5's (seems incredible now). I'm not claiming glory. Some of my tips were crap.

    And I agree, I thought Biden's speech was very good. Not scintillating but he hit the right tone. This is where America begins to come back from the brink. It won't be easy but it will.
    I must admit I went to bed worried though no tears last night, but after 3 hours sleep things were changing and Ive slowly enjoyed the day as its gone on.
    And agreed Mystic you were one of the more calmer heads when all around were losing them. I stayed long enough for us all to congratulate Mr Ed and HYUFD for their correct calling....as it seemed then.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    New covid infections update:

    France
    04/11 40,558
    28/10 36,437
    21/10 26,676
    14/10 22,591
    07/10 18,746

    Germany
    04/11 20,218
    28/10 16,202
    21/10 10,457
    14/10 6,063
    07/10 3,994

    Italy
    04/11 30,550
    28/10 24,989
    21/10 15,198
    14/10 7,331
    07/10 3,678

    Poland
    04/11 24,962
    28/10 18,820
    21/10 10,040
    14/10 6,526
    07/10 3,003

    Spain
    04/11 25,177
    28/10 19,765
    21/10 18,138
    14/10 15,409
    07/10 11,985

    UK
    04/11 25,177
    28/10 24,701
    21/10 26,684
    14/10 19,722
    07/10 14,162

    I wonder if the UK's tier system was beginning to work.

    Don’t forget schools have been on half-term as well; that may have slowed things a bit.
    That wouldn't be showing in the case data yet.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    The Fox line still seems to be “President Trump could potentially lose....”
  • GOP turning in on itself now – briefing the press that Trump's behaviour is unacceptable: it's "an ambulance-chasing routine".

    There is a tiny bit of me that now wants to see Trump win from nowhere, just because it would be really funny to watch them all have to reverse their positions again.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662

    GOP turning in on itself now – briefing the press that Trump's behaviour is unacceptable: it's "an ambulance-chasing routine".

    They're happy to be rid of him.

    Four more years as President would have trashed the GOP.
    Indeed, holding the Senate with pretty much no change, some inroads in the House and Trump off to the golf course,,,,I think most Reps may look back on this election not too disappointed in many ways. And look forward to the mid terms and 2024.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410

    kle4 said:

    Johnson will be left deeply exposed now, RIP USA trade deal, it's Brexit capitulation or economic disaster with No Deal on the way. What will he choose?

    His friend in the world gone, populism rejected fairly decisively so far this year, he's a dying breed.

    The pushing of the idea of his friendship with Trump is rather overblown I think. He's said things against Trump in the past, other world leaders have praised or at least feted Trump just as much or more, because he was President of the United States and that's what you do.
    "Britain Trump" Donald called him.
    And up until a month ago Conservative MPs were tweeting their love and support for Donald Trump
    Michael Fabricant was this very morning. Assuming he'd won of course.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    isam said:

    ...

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    For instance Delaware County in Penn has counted 82,027 Mail ballots. It has 28,728 ballots left.

    The Split so far is
    Biden 70,331
    Trump 11,263

    The Mail ballot split is bigely Biden

    Can you crunch the numbers on that and project the state?

    Big ask I know mate 😉
    I have called only 1 state on a personal level, Nevada by 2%. But just for you I will call PA right now.

    I have Projected a Biden win by 180,000 votes.

    I will not be taking any questions at this time
    Alistair said:

    Lets look at interesting stuff Adams county Pennsylvania

    100% Precincts reporting
    Trump: 29,944
    Biden: 6,611

    2016 Result
    Trump: 31,423
    Clinton: 14,219

    This looks really bad for Biden

    However:
    Mail Ballots Counted: 0
    Mail Ballots to Count: 18,875

    Yo Dog. Whats up?

    If they split on the current state value of 78/20 then final tally is
    Trump: 33,719
    Biden: 20,830

    That's the kind of swing that sees Biden take the state.

    1.01

    &

    1.01!
    Hope you managed to get on isam.
  • kle4 said:

    Johnson will be left deeply exposed now, RIP USA trade deal, it's Brexit capitulation or economic disaster with No Deal on the way. What will he choose?

    His friend in the world gone, populism rejected fairly decisively so far this year, he's a dying breed.

    The pushing of the idea of his friendship with Trump is rather overblown I think. He's said things against Trump in the past, other world leaders have praised or at least feted Trump just as much or more, because he was President of the United States and that's what you do.
    "Britain Trump" Donald called him.
    Given Trump’s habit of assigning nicknames based on what he wants to be true, I’m not sure I’d rely on that bit of evidence.
    There are other areas of similarity to go with: I think they were both born in the same city for example.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Foxy said:

    The 2024 election could be between the two extremes but represented by younger candidates. An AOC vs a to-be-determined carrier of the Trump flame.

    AOC is incredibly likeable it must be said, not sure her politics will appeal though
    AOC is a star, she is very eloquent and with good political antennae. One to watch certainly.
    FFS, AOC is a culture wars warrior

    Having the likes of AOC control the Democrats' agenda would mean a focus on defunding the Police, emphasising that race trumps all other agendas and so on.

    It would be a disaster for the Ds.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662

    GOP turning in on itself now – briefing the press that Trump's behaviour is unacceptable: it's "an ambulance-chasing routine".

    There is a tiny bit of me that now wants to see Trump win from nowhere, just because it would be really funny to watch them all have to reverse their positions again.
    The only other reason I could possibly want for Trump to win from here would be to see CNN self combust!
  • Hang on, so they were planning to sit on them before? I’ll never understand America....
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,877
    kle4 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    If parties in 2024 stand on PR in their manifestos and they are able to form a government then no referendum is needed to deliver it. Just implement it.

    ALL constitutional changes should go through a referendum. It is the peoples political system it doesnt belong to politicians. I would not have supported leaving the eu because a party with it in their manifesto won just because they had a majority either.

    People vote for a party for a lot of reasons and usually dont agree with every policy, To make sweeping changes to our electoral system you absolutely need to have a specific mandate
    In our system defining what would be a constitutional issue would not always be so straightforward I suspect. I don't see what 'the people's political system' has to do with implementing electoral system changes after an election win.

    I'd be in favour of minimum turnout, perhaps a threshold above 50% for the big stuff, as many countries do, but having not had those for Sindy or Brexit I think trying it for future ones would be hard to defend.
    You think our voting system should be changed purely on the whim of a party that wins a majority because it is in their manifesto? I have no doubt if the conservatives and lib dems had both had av in their manifesto's in 2010 the result wouldnt have been much if any different and we saw how the av referendum went
  • Puerto Rico voted for statehood.

    122 years of US occupation administration!
  • New covid infections update:

    France
    04/11 40,558
    28/10 36,437
    21/10 26,676
    14/10 22,591
    07/10 18,746

    Germany
    04/11 20,218
    28/10 16,202
    21/10 10,457
    14/10 6,063
    07/10 3,994

    Italy
    04/11 30,550
    28/10 24,989
    21/10 15,198
    14/10 7,331
    07/10 3,678

    Poland
    04/11 24,962
    28/10 18,820
    21/10 10,040
    14/10 6,526
    07/10 3,003

    Spain
    04/11 25,177
    28/10 19,765
    21/10 18,138
    14/10 15,409
    07/10 11,985

    UK
    04/11 25,177
    28/10 24,701
    21/10 26,684
    14/10 19,722
    07/10 14,162

    I wonder if the UK's tier system was beginning to work.

    Don’t forget schools have been on half-term as well; that may have slowed things a bit.
    Possibly but I think the big effect in school based infections happened in the first few weeks though that might repeat with another increase when the schools reopen after half term.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    Johnson will be left deeply exposed now, RIP USA trade deal, it's Brexit capitulation or economic disaster with No Deal on the way. What will he choose?

    His friend in the world gone, populism rejected fairly decisively so far this year, he's a dying breed.

    The pushing of the idea of his friendship with Trump is rather overblown I think. He's said things against Trump in the past, other world leaders have praised or at least feted Trump just as much or more, because he was President of the United States and that's what you do.
    "Britain Trump" Donald called him.
    And up until a month ago Conservative MPs were tweeting their love and support for Donald Trump
    Michael Fabricant was this very morning. Assuming he'd won of course.
    It's the hair
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Hang on, so they were planning to sit on them before? I’ll never understand America....
    Maybe they were holding back wanting to be the state that took Biden over the line.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Perdue is really dropping in the other Georgia Senate race. He's on 50% so I think it's very likely now that he will slip below 50% and it will also go to a January runoff.

    Both Georgia Senate races therefore.

    https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1324113203605999616?s=20
  • alex_ said:

    What news on what's been happening in state legislature races?

    I haven't seen anything apart from the dead guy being elected.
  • Mal557 said:

    GOP turning in on itself now – briefing the press that Trump's behaviour is unacceptable: it's "an ambulance-chasing routine".

    There is a tiny bit of me that now wants to see Trump win from nowhere, just because it would be really funny to watch them all have to reverse their positions again.
    The only other reason I could possibly want for Trump to win from here would be to see CNN self combust!
    I’ve ended up feeling a bit sorry for Kasich on that panel for being expected to defend Trump and then, well not doing so because he’s evidently not an idiot.
  • kle4 said:

    Johnson will be left deeply exposed now, RIP USA trade deal, it's Brexit capitulation or economic disaster with No Deal on the way. What will he choose?

    His friend in the world gone, populism rejected fairly decisively so far this year, he's a dying breed.

    The pushing of the idea of his friendship with Trump is rather overblown I think. He's said things against Trump in the past, other world leaders have praised or at least feted Trump just as much or more, because he was President of the United States and that's what you do. Edit: It was even claimed in a clip from last year that Boris, Macron and Trudeau were all having a good laugh mocking Trump together at a NATO summit.
    I think a lot project their mutual loathing of Johnson & Trump into a presumed friendship. I suspect (almost all of) the UK government would prefer a Biden Presidency to get a functioning USA back. The UK has a substantial trade surplus with the US - we're doing just fine "without" a trade deal....

    The funny thing about the trade surplus with the US is that we think it is in our favour and the Americans think it is in theirs.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Pennsylvania feels more certain to me than anywhere else for Biden right now actually.
    The known vote out there, the margins, the currently inflated GOP margins everywhere, the fact Philly and Pittsburgh have so much vote still out...
  • This thread has been swept up!

  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Perdue is really dropping in the other Georgia Senate race. He's on 50% so I think it's very likely now that he will slip below 50% and it will also go to a January runoff.

    Both Georgia Senate races therefore.

    https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1324113203605999616?s=20

    If Dems win both Georgia seats will they draw level in the Senate?
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662

    Hang on, so they were planning to sit on them before? I’ll never understand America....
    There is a rumour,,,no more that as Biden needs both AZ and NV, that NV were waiting for AZ to be officially declared meaning their 6 votes would usher in the new President. Just a rumour of course :)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,129
    edited November 2020
    Pagan2 said:

    kle4 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    If parties in 2024 stand on PR in their manifestos and they are able to form a government then no referendum is needed to deliver it. Just implement it.

    ALL constitutional changes should go through a referendum. It is the peoples political system it doesnt belong to politicians. I would not have supported leaving the eu because a party with it in their manifesto won just because they had a majority either.

    People vote for a party for a lot of reasons and usually dont agree with every policy, To make sweeping changes to our electoral system you absolutely need to have a specific mandate
    In our system defining what would be a constitutional issue would not always be so straightforward I suspect. I don't see what 'the people's political system' has to do with implementing electoral system changes after an election win.

    I'd be in favour of minimum turnout, perhaps a threshold above 50% for the big stuff, as many countries do, but having not had those for Sindy or Brexit I think trying it for future ones would be hard to defend.
    You think our voting system should be changed purely on the whim of a party that wins a majority because it is in their manifesto? I have no doubt if the conservatives and lib dems had both had av in their manifesto's in 2010 the result wouldnt have been much if any different and we saw how the av referendum went
    I think it would be unwise to change it that way, and would prefer a referendum, but I think if a party made it clear that they would do it without a referendum then it would be legal and acceptable, as the people would have the ability to vote in such a way to deny them a majority to take that action they clearly stated they would.

    And it would depend on the exact plan. Would they need a referendum to make local elections decided by AV or PR? Changing how PCCs are elected? Is it just on MPs?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Scott_xP said:
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Johnson will be left deeply exposed now, RIP USA trade deal, it's Brexit capitulation or economic disaster with No Deal on the way. What will he choose?

    His friend in the world gone, populism rejected fairly decisively so far this year, he's a dying breed.

    The pushing of the idea of his friendship with Trump is rather overblown I think. He's said things against Trump in the past, other world leaders have praised or at least feted Trump just as much or more, because he was President of the United States and that's what you do.
    "Britain Trump" Donald called him.
    I don't know about you, but I don't trust Donald Trump's view on anything, including his view on Boris. Since I watch him a lot I recalll John Oliver on that specific quote of Trumps, and even as someone who detests Boris as well as Trump, he felt, and I would agree, that they are different in some very significant ways, not least as Boris is more complex.
    They are very different.

    One has trademark bad hair, was born in in New York, has a poor relationship with women, a massive ego, a reputation for lying, developed a political career after finding fame on TV and actively seeds division in the nation as his key political approach.

    The other is of course Donald Trump.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    They are fighting for the soul of their party.

    As well as to be relevant over the next 4 years.

    For all of HYUFD's praise of Trump, it's not easy to lose as incumbent President. It's only happened three times before today.
    He hasn't lost yet!
    Just a matter of time now ...
    It's not over until he crosses the line.

    Let's not jinx this!
  • glw said:

    I wonder if the UK's tier system was beginning to work.

    The tier system can work AND we can still exceed hospital capacity. It's no good halting the spread after we've busted though those limits. I suspect it's the hospital admissions that are forcing the lockdown now, as that was meant to be the thing that was used to switch the adaptive triggering of supression measures that Imperial College modelled.
    Given the current hospital usage in the UK compared to other European countries I can only conclude:

    1) The UK is not under as much hospital pressure as claimed

    and/or

    2) Other European countries have far more hospital capacity than the UK

    and/or

    3) Most other European countries are about to have a hospital covid meltdown.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Mal557 said:

    Hang on, so they were planning to sit on them before? I’ll never understand America....
    There is a rumour,,,no more that as Biden needs both AZ and NV, that NV were waiting for AZ to be officially declared meaning their 6 votes would usher in the new President. Just a rumour of course :)

    Are you saying that the showmen of Las Vegas are publicity hungry?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Pulpstar said:

    Pennsylvania feels more certain to me than anywhere else for Biden right now actually.
    The known vote out there, the margins, the currently inflated GOP margins everywhere, the fact Philly and Pittsburgh have so much vote still out...

    I actually feel like that too.

    AZ I think is safe for Biden though – no way Fox and AP are calling that if they aren't sure.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    They are fighting for the soul of their party.

    As well as to be relevant over the next 4 years.

    For all of HYUFD's praise of Trump, it's not easy to lose as incumbent President. It's only happened three times before today.
    Mmmm, there are a lot of Republicans - and not Trump lovers - who believe there are shenanigans going on around VBM.

    As the NYT put it "Biden’s narrow win in Michigan was the product of extremely high turnout in Detroit, where an underwhelming performance with Black voters in 2016 helped doom Hillary Clinton" Which is funny because Wayne County, up until the last few days, had been running below the state average for mail-in ballots requested.

    From what I hear, the Trump campaign is already using the 130K - zero mail in ballots as a piece of evidence that the election was rigged.

    Also bear in mind the Michigan Supreme Court is Republican-dominated.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,060

    Puerto Rico voted for statehood.

    Think of all the flags they're going to have to change now!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,129
    MrEd said:

    They are fighting for the soul of their party.

    As well as to be relevant over the next 4 years.

    For all of HYUFD's praise of Trump, it's not easy to lose as incumbent President. It's only happened three times before today.
    Mmmm, there are a lot of Republicans - and not Trump lovers - who believe there are shenanigans going on around VBM.

    As the NYT put it "Biden’s narrow win in Michigan was the product of extremely high turnout in Detroit, where an underwhelming performance with Black voters in 2016 helped doom Hillary Clinton" Which is funny because Wayne County, up until the last few days, had been running below the state average for mail-in ballots requested.

    From what I hear, the Trump campaign is already using the 130K - zero mail in ballots as a piece of evidence that the election was rigged.

    Also bear in mind the Michigan Supreme Court is Republican-dominated.
    If there is evidence of rigging, or indeed not sufficient evidence of it, then the political composition of the court should be irrelevant. But, well, america.
  • Mal557 said:

    GOP turning in on itself now – briefing the press that Trump's behaviour is unacceptable: it's "an ambulance-chasing routine".

    They're happy to be rid of him.

    Four more years as President would have trashed the GOP.
    Indeed, holding the Senate with pretty much no change, some inroads in the House and Trump off to the golf course,,,,I think most Reps may look back on this election not too disappointed in many ways. And look forward to the mid terms and 2024.
    If they're wise, big if, they will have been thinking what they did to get Trump to begin with.

    Too much pandering to the rich and warmongering might feature.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,129
    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Johnson will be left deeply exposed now, RIP USA trade deal, it's Brexit capitulation or economic disaster with No Deal on the way. What will he choose?

    His friend in the world gone, populism rejected fairly decisively so far this year, he's a dying breed.

    The pushing of the idea of his friendship with Trump is rather overblown I think. He's said things against Trump in the past, other world leaders have praised or at least feted Trump just as much or more, because he was President of the United States and that's what you do.
    "Britain Trump" Donald called him.
    I don't know about you, but I don't trust Donald Trump's view on anything, including his view on Boris. Since I watch him a lot I recalll John Oliver on that specific quote of Trumps, and even as someone who detests Boris as well as Trump, he felt, and I would agree, that they are different in some very significant ways, not least as Boris is more complex.
    They are very different.

    One has trademark bad hair, was born in in New York, has a poor relationship with women, a massive ego, a reputation for lying, developed a political career after finding fame on TV and actively seeds division in the nation as his key political approach.

    The other is of course Donald Trump.
    Yes, all true, but people take the superficial too far, because ultimately our countries are different, they have different styles (for all the flaws of the UK Covid response, for example, Boris has taken a very different approach), and pretending they are bosom pals I don't think it merited and comes off as trying too hard.
  • Though the Dems did contest Ohio in 2004 when over 100k behind.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    GOP turning in on itself now – briefing the press that Trump's behaviour is unacceptable: it's "an ambulance-chasing routine".

    There is a tiny bit of me that now wants to see Trump win from nowhere, just because it would be really funny to watch them all have to reverse their positions again.
    Yeah there's no bit of me that wants that.

    But I remain cautious.
  • Mal557 said:

    Hang on, so they were planning to sit on them before? I’ll never understand America....
    There is a rumour,,,no more that as Biden needs both AZ and NV, that NV were waiting for AZ to be officially declared meaning their 6 votes would usher in the new President. Just a rumour of course :)
    Tbh I'd just assumed someone fat-fingered the date when Nevada jumped from 3rd to 5th November.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    MrEd said:

    They are fighting for the soul of their party.

    As well as to be relevant over the next 4 years.

    For all of HYUFD's praise of Trump, it's not easy to lose as incumbent President. It's only happened three times before today.
    Mmmm, there are a lot of Republicans - and not Trump lovers - who believe there are shenanigans going on around VBM.

    As the NYT put it "Biden’s narrow win in Michigan was the product of extremely high turnout in Detroit, where an underwhelming performance with Black voters in 2016 helped doom Hillary Clinton" Which is funny because Wayne County, up until the last few days, had been running below the state average for mail-in ballots requested.

    From what I hear, the Trump campaign is already using the 130K - zero mail in ballots as a piece of evidence that the election was rigged.

    Also bear in mind the Michigan Supreme Court is Republican-dominated.
    Zzzzzz.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,877
    kle4 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kle4 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    If parties in 2024 stand on PR in their manifestos and they are able to form a government then no referendum is needed to deliver it. Just implement it.

    ALL constitutional changes should go through a referendum. It is the peoples political system it doesnt belong to politicians. I would not have supported leaving the eu because a party with it in their manifesto won just because they had a majority either.

    People vote for a party for a lot of reasons and usually dont agree with every policy, To make sweeping changes to our electoral system you absolutely need to have a specific mandate
    In our system defining what would be a constitutional issue would not always be so straightforward I suspect. I don't see what 'the people's political system' has to do with implementing electoral system changes after an election win.

    I'd be in favour of minimum turnout, perhaps a threshold above 50% for the big stuff, as many countries do, but having not had those for Sindy or Brexit I think trying it for future ones would be hard to defend.
    You think our voting system should be changed purely on the whim of a party that wins a majority because it is in their manifesto? I have no doubt if the conservatives and lib dems had both had av in their manifesto's in 2010 the result wouldnt have been much if any different and we saw how the av referendum went
    I think it would be unwise to change it that way, and would prefer a referendum, but I think if a party made it clear that they would do it without a referendum then it would be legal and acceptable, as the people would have the ability to vote in such a way to deny them a majority to take that action they clearly stated they would.

    And it would depend on the exact plan. Would they need a referendum to make local elections decided by AV or PR? Changing how PCCs are elected? Is it just on MPs?
    I don't think it should be permissible without a referendum for either personally. It's not a party political thing for me I just have a strong hatred for pr reinforced by 2010. I voted conservative that election. I would not have voted conservative however on the revised coalition manifesto, Yet my vote was counted as part of their mandate.

    How we elect our politicians is very much a question that the people should be having a say in and not because we voted for party x because we liked their economic, education and policing policies but voting systems were not enough to stop us voting for them
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    CatMan said:

    Puerto Rico voted for statehood.

    Think of all the flags they're going to have to change now!

    Making Puerto Rico a state could be a great policy for Biden.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    MrEd said:

    They are fighting for the soul of their party.

    As well as to be relevant over the next 4 years.

    For all of HYUFD's praise of Trump, it's not easy to lose as incumbent President. It's only happened three times before today.
    Mmmm, there are a lot of Republicans - and not Trump lovers - who believe there are shenanigans going on around VBM.

    As the NYT put it "Biden’s narrow win in Michigan was the product of extremely high turnout in Detroit, where an underwhelming performance with Black voters in 2016 helped doom Hillary Clinton" Which is funny because Wayne County, up until the last few days, had been running below the state average for mail-in ballots requested.

    From what I hear, the Trump campaign is already using the 130K - zero mail in ballots as a piece of evidence that the election was rigged.

    Also bear in mind the Michigan Supreme Court is Republican-dominated.
    Is that all you have.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    MrEd said:

    Foxy said:

    The 2024 election could be between the two extremes but represented by younger candidates. An AOC vs a to-be-determined carrier of the Trump flame.

    AOC is incredibly likeable it must be said, not sure her politics will appeal though
    AOC is a star, she is very eloquent and with good political antennae. One to watch certainly.
    FFS, AOC is a culture wars warrior

    Having the likes of AOC control the Democrats' agenda would mean a focus on defunding the Police, emphasising that race trumps all other agendas and so on.

    It would be a disaster for the Ds.
    #alexfromtheblock would be a great choice for #kamala4thepeople's VP in 2024. Assuming #biden46 doesn't defy the actuarial odds and live that long.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    MrEd said:

    They are fighting for the soul of their party.

    As well as to be relevant over the next 4 years.

    For all of HYUFD's praise of Trump, it's not easy to lose as incumbent President. It's only happened three times before today.
    Mmmm, there are a lot of Republicans - and not Trump lovers - who believe there are shenanigans going on around VBM.

    As the NYT put it "Biden’s narrow win in Michigan was the product of extremely high turnout in Detroit, where an underwhelming performance with Black voters in 2016 helped doom Hillary Clinton" Which is funny because Wayne County, up until the last few days, had been running below the state average for mail-in ballots requested.

    From what I hear, the Trump campaign is already using the 130K - zero mail in ballots as a piece of evidence that the election was rigged.

    Also bear in mind the Michigan Supreme Court is Republican-dominated.
    Zzzzzz.
    If you think Trump - or the Republicans - will go quietly into the night on this one, you have a rude awakening.

    Trump has nothing to lose now and, more to the point, he will point to VBM to support the argument the vote was rigged. His supporters will lap this up.

    You people really have learnt nothing.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Dura_Ace said:

    MrEd said:

    Foxy said:

    The 2024 election could be between the two extremes but represented by younger candidates. An AOC vs a to-be-determined carrier of the Trump flame.

    AOC is incredibly likeable it must be said, not sure her politics will appeal though
    AOC is a star, she is very eloquent and with good political antennae. One to watch certainly.
    FFS, AOC is a culture wars warrior

    Having the likes of AOC control the Democrats' agenda would mean a focus on defunding the Police, emphasising that race trumps all other agendas and so on.

    It would be a disaster for the Ds.
    #alexfromtheblock would be a great choice for #kamala4thepeople's VP in 2024. Assuming #biden46 doesn't defy the actuarial odds and live that long.
    He's gone in a year. Served his purpose and will step down within 12 months. If he doesn't start drooling in the meantime and banging on about Cornpop.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Whilst the Dems will obviously be pleased to win, in the medium term this is a rather concerning result. The days when WI MI and PA were near-certain Dem holds are long gone - now they are toss ups at best. Meanwhile they haven’t made much progress in the Sun Belt. They may get caught between a rock and a hard place in 2024.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    Plenty on that list have supported crazy up until now - but one thing they have in common is the ability to sense power draining away.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    MrEd said:

    They are fighting for the soul of their party.

    As well as to be relevant over the next 4 years.

    For all of HYUFD's praise of Trump, it's not easy to lose as incumbent President. It's only happened three times before today.
    Mmmm, there are a lot of Republicans - and not Trump lovers - who believe there are shenanigans going on around VBM.

    As the NYT put it "Biden’s narrow win in Michigan was the product of extremely high turnout in Detroit, where an underwhelming performance with Black voters in 2016 helped doom Hillary Clinton" Which is funny because Wayne County, up until the last few days, had been running below the state average for mail-in ballots requested.

    From what I hear, the Trump campaign is already using the 130K - zero mail in ballots as a piece of evidence that the election was rigged.

    Also bear in mind the Michigan Supreme Court is Republican-dominated.
    Is that all you have.
    Not really. TBH, I don't live in the US and it doesn't impact my life. Betting wise, I will probably end up neutral.

    But I go back to what I mentioned before: if Biden was winning and seemed on the way to re-election, and then 130K Trump votes appeared out of nowhere, you would all be screaming foul.

    Have the guts to admit the ends justify the means and that you don't care if rules were bent to get rid of Trump for a higher cause. This whole sanctimonious "we're so superior" attitude is a sham.
  • Foxy said:

    This applies to the right as well as the left.
    https://twitter.com/joebiden/status/1324112939310264322?s=21

    One of Grandpa Joes best features is his genuine desire for consensus. Perhaps because his formative years predate the current culture war. They were of course forged in an equally divisive time of desegregation and Vietnam War protests.
    Maybe, just maybe, Biden's election is the first rays of the pre-dawn at the end of a dark time.
    Well we've had Jacinda's already, Macron is not far off, 2020s might be the end of populism.
    I wouldn’t put Jacinda and Macron in the same category, tbh.
  • Scott_xP said:
    He's invoking the second amendment and calling "Shotgun!"
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Whilst the Dems will obviously be pleased to win, in the medium term this is a rather concerning result. The days when WI MI and PA were near-certain Dem holds are long gone - now they are toss ups at best. Meanwhile they haven’t made much progress in the Sun Belt. They may get caught between a rock and a hard place in 2024.

    One thing that doesn't get appreciated here - or at least I sense that - is that Hispanic and Black voters are not one big happy "people of colour" coalition but actually, on a number of levels, can be quite hostile to each other.

    One lesson I suspect the Republicans will take from this that there is a future for them in bringing Hispanic voters into their tent, which makes sense as many people from the Americas came to the US because they saw it as a land of opportunity. In contrast, I think the Republicans will take from this vote - if it stands - that there is not much point trying to win Black votes because they will stick with the Democrats
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    edited November 2020
    What an election. I feel a bit deflated that the hoped for Biden landslide and big pay out, for me at least, didn’t materialise. But an extraordinary event to have been part of. And looking like the good guy wins in the end.

    Sincere thanks to Mike, Robert, TSE and all for providing us, once again, with such a fantastic place to see and share the roller coaster experience of another POTUS election.

    PB rocks!

    😀

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    edited November 2020

    Whilst the Dems will obviously be pleased to win, in the medium term this is a rather concerning result. The days when WI MI and PA were near-certain Dem holds are long gone - now they are toss ups at best. Meanwhile they haven’t made much progress in the Sun Belt. They may get caught between a rock and a hard place in 2024.

    "Meanwhile they haven’t made much progress in the Sun Belt." ? Georgia and Arizona are now true tossups.
    Democrats are in a much better place than the GOP. Tom Cotton or whoever comes next won't get rallies like Trump did in Butler PA - he was a one man GOTV machine. Plenty of MAGA are low hanging fruit for Biden if he plays the presidency right.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222

    It's VERY STRANGE all these Bidenistas coming on here now when at 0300 on here they were crying.

    Well done to Biden he's not my sort of thing but he's ok 👍😊

    Well I never made a prediction but I do think those who said it would be a landslide should hold their hands up.
    I didn’t predict a landslide, but I’m happy to acknowledge that thinking Texas was worth a gamble at 3/1 was a serious mistake.
    O’Rourke campaigned the hell out of the state two years ago and still came up short. It’s probably going to take a few more years - and some hard thinking about the Democrats’ appeal to Latinos.

    We will not speak of my Senate bet against Graham. :smile:
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Nigelb said:

    It's VERY STRANGE all these Bidenistas coming on here now when at 0300 on here they were crying.

    Well done to Biden he's not my sort of thing but he's ok 👍😊

    Well I never made a prediction but I do think those who said it would be a landslide should hold their hands up.
    I didn’t predict a landslide, but I’m happy to acknowledge that thinking Texas was worth a gamble at 3/1 was a serious mistake.
    O’Rourke campaigned the hell out of the state two years ago and still came up short. It’s probably going to take a few more years - and some hard thinking about the Democrats’ appeal to Latinos.

    We will not speak of my Senate bet against Graham. :smile:
    Haha, come on admit it, you thought Graham would lose :)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    kle4 said:

    alex_ said:

    What news on what's been happening in state legislature races?

    Masses of uncontested seats for a start! But I don't think much has been reported in all the excitement, but for some upsets or notable individual events, like the first trans state senator etc.
    I think it’s been a very disappointing night for the Democrats in terms of the upcoming redistricting. They simply haven’t made the advances they hoped for.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    alex_ said:

    What news on what's been happening in state legislature races?

    Masses of uncontested seats for a start! But I don't think much has been reported in all the excitement, but for some upsets or notable individual events, like the first trans state senator etc.
    I think it’s been a very disappointing night for the Democrats in terms of the upcoming redistricting. They simply haven’t made the advances they hoped for.
    That's a good point. Places like TX, where the talk was of the Ds controlling the lower House, were disappointing.

    I suspect this is going to be Obama 2012 redux (assuming Biden wins). Not much done and an energised Republican opposition.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    CatMan said:

    Puerto Rico voted for statehood.

    Think of all the flags they're going to have to change now!
    The GOP (Via senate) should let them in. Trump campaign showed it can reach out to hispanic voters this time round.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,594
    edited November 2020
    edit
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    edited November 2020
    10k Mail ins left in Fulton County then they are done there 6.5k ready for scrutiny 3.5k still to be opened.

    On top of that they have all the absentee and military ballots
This discussion has been closed.