As a former Corbyn supporter, I think 2019 here and 2020 in the USA proves to me beyond doubt that what the public want is competence and good governance and something that won't scare them. Go on Keir, I have faith
Good luck Keir. Will be 2nd 2024
Technically, we can come second in 2024 and still become the government, quite possible in that case we have a government which over 50% voted for and then we can have a proper PR system implemented.
Honestly for me in 2024, that is the priority, ending FPTP.
Only seems likely if Labour don't win out right, since like Trudeau I'm sure they will find other things to do once they actually win.
Kamala Harris was a shit choice for VP. I reckon she cost the Democrats a lot of ground.
Possibly so. A bit too Black, Indian, Female, and Californian for the swing voters.
She may well be a very good VP though. She seems quite feisty and intelligent.
Campaigning skill correlates very poorly, perhaps even inversely, with skill at governing.
I think the bigotry stuff is an excuse. Obama had no problems there.
Democrats really need to STOP seeing everything through the prism of race, gender and sexuality.
It really pisses a lot of people off and is BS.
If you think racial, sexuality and gender are no longer issues arousing prejudice in America, then perhaps you need to get out of your bubble and meet more ordinary folk.
I see Nate Silver is now classing Arizona and Nevada as "Likely Biden", Pennsylvania as "Lean Biden", Georgia as "Tossup" (or "Lean Biden" if forced to choose) and North Carolina as "Likely Trump".
That's an exact match of the Democratic campaign chief – although she didn't explicitly mention NV and AZ when briefing CNN
As a former Corbyn supporter, I think 2019 here and 2020 in the USA proves to me beyond doubt that what the public want is competence and good governance and something that won't scare them. Go on Keir, I have faith
Good luck Keir. Will be 2nd 2024
Technically, we can come second in 2024 and still become the government, quite possible in that case we have a government which over 50% voted for and then we can have a proper PR system implemented.
Honestly for me in 2024, that is the priority, ending FPTP.
Only seems likely if Labour don't win out right, since like Trudeau I'm sure they will find other things to do once they actually win.
Frankly I agree based on history so for that recent in 2024 I am hoping for a Hung Parliament as long term that will deliver the change we need. Labour has to be forced into it, then so be it.
Kamala Harris was a shit choice for VP. I reckon she cost the Democrats a lot of ground.
Possibly so. A bit too Black, Indian, Female, and Californian for the swing voters.
She may well be a very good VP though. She seems quite feisty and intelligent.
Campaigning skill correlates very poorly, perhaps even inversely, with skill at governing.
I think the bigotry stuff is an excuse. Obama had no problems there.
Democrats really need to STOP seeing everything through the prism of race, gender and sexuality.
It really pisses a lot of people off and is BS.
If you think racial, sexuality and gender are no longer issues arousing prejudice in America, then perhaps you need to get out of your bubble and meet more ordinary folk.
I'm not the one in a bubble mate.
I know way more about this stuff than you do.
You’re the one pushing identity politics, AGAIN. Over 50% of Americans have just voted for the people talking about race, sexuality, and gender. A majority. So who’s in the bubble?
Both side need to seek common ground. This is not simply about “city folk” having to pander to those in the towns.
As a former Corbyn supporter, I think 2019 here and 2020 in the USA proves to me beyond doubt that what the public want is competence and good governance and something that won't scare them. Go on Keir, I have faith
Good luck Keir. Will be 2nd 2024
Technically, we can come second in 2024 and still become the government, quite possible in that case we have a government which over 50% voted for and then we can have a proper PR system implemented.
Honestly for me in 2024, that is the priority, ending FPTP.
Oh god we're not going to spend the next four years debating the virtues of FPTP Vs AV Vs PR again are we?
Kamala Harris was a shit choice for VP. I reckon she cost the Democrats a lot of ground.
Possibly so. A bit too Black, Indian, Female, and Californian for the swing voters.
She may well be a very good VP though. She seems quite feisty and intelligent.
Campaigning skill correlates very poorly, perhaps even inversely, with skill at governing.
I think the bigotry stuff is an excuse. Obama had no problems there.
Democrats really need to STOP seeing everything through the prism of race, gender and sexuality.
It really pisses a lot of people off and is BS.
If you think racial, sexuality and gender are no longer issues arousing prejudice in America, then perhaps you need to get out of your bubble and meet more ordinary folk.
I'm not the one in a bubble mate.
I know way more about this stuff than you do.
Well, doesn't seem like it from what you post here.
Kamala Harris was a shit choice for VP. I reckon she cost the Democrats a lot of ground.
Possibly so. A bit too Black, Indian, Female, and Californian for the swing voters.
She may well be a very good VP though. She seems quite feisty and intelligent.
Campaigning skill correlates very poorly, perhaps even inversely, with skill at governing.
I think the bigotry stuff is an excuse. Obama had no problems there.
Democrats really need to STOP seeing everything through the prism of race, gender and sexuality.
It really pisses a lot of people off and is BS.
If you think racial, sexuality and gender are no longer issues arousing prejudice in America, then perhaps you need to get out of your bubble and meet more ordinary folk.
I'm not the one in a bubble mate.
I know way more about this stuff than you do.
Ooh a good old fashioned PB norm-off! These are always so entertaining.
Theresa seems an infinitely better politician after losing the premiership than she did throughout her entire career before and during it. The guarded, bot-like mien that was her hallmark for decades has vanished.
Westmoreland 64/32 for Trump VBM 68% Biden 31% Trump
Postal vote are flowing to Biden for every corner of the state.
Wow. Just wow.
Biden just mentioned PA in his speech.
They've won it I think.
I bored everyone on Zoom with my Pennsylvania model, which doesn't really work because it can't differentiate by mode of voting - but, it peaked at an implausible Trump win by 400k when the on the day vote results came in, and has been falling by around 40k for every 4% of the vote that comes in since then. If that holds for the remainder, Trump wins the state by 3000 votes. I don't think that's right, I think Biden has it. But it is going to the wire.
I'm strongly of the view that to win in 2024 we will not be engaging in a culture war but I do agree with the fundamental statement that in many cases - not all - so-called culture wars are invented out of thin air to rile people up and find something to argue about.
As a former Corbyn supporter, I think 2019 here and 2020 in the USA proves to me beyond doubt that what the public want is competence and good governance and something that won't scare them. Go on Keir, I have faith
Good luck Keir. Will be 2nd 2024
Technically, we can come second in 2024 and still become the government, quite possible in that case we have a government which over 50% voted for and then we can have a proper PR system implemented.
Honestly for me in 2024, that is the priority, ending FPTP.
Not checking everything with SNP which will be your reality
Theresa seems an infinitely better politician after losing the premiership than she did throughout her entire career before and during it. The guarded, bot-like mien that was her hallmark for decades has vanished.
306 with a large victory in the popular vote would IMHO be a pretty decisive rejection of Trump.
To get to 306 Biden needs Georgia, I suspect hes going to fall agonisingly short, which would be a shame. But it's still possible of course. NC is too much of a stretch
As a former Corbyn supporter, I think 2019 here and 2020 in the USA proves to me beyond doubt that what the public want is competence and good governance and something that won't scare them. Go on Keir, I have faith
Good luck Keir. Will be 2nd 2024
Technically, we can come second in 2024 and still become the government, quite possible in that case we have a government which over 50% voted for and then we can have a proper PR system implemented.
Honestly for me in 2024, that is the priority, ending FPTP.
Not checking everything with SNP which will be your reality
SNP support PR. Or if they don't want to support Labour they're most welcome to explain why they put the Tories back into Government.
Trump takes WI/MI/PA by fractions of a percent : Truly a man of the people with a unique bond with blue collar America. Biden take WI/MI/PA by fractions of a percent: out of touch costal elite flukes victory
Kamala Harris was a shit choice for VP. I reckon she cost the Democrats a lot of ground.
Possibly so. A bit too Black, Indian, Female, and Californian for the swing voters.
She may well be a very good VP though. She seems quite feisty and intelligent.
Campaigning skill correlates very poorly, perhaps even inversely, with skill at governing.
I think the bigotry stuff is an excuse. Obama had no problems there.
Democrats really need to STOP seeing everything through the prism of race, gender and sexuality.
It really pisses a lot of people off and is BS.
If you think racial, sexuality and gender are no longer issues arousing prejudice in America, then perhaps you need to get out of your bubble and meet more ordinary folk.
Trump takes WI/MI/PA by fractions of a percent : Truly a man of the people with a unique bond with blue collar America. Biden take WI/MI/PA by fractions of a percent: out of touch costal elite flukes victory
Good story.
Isn't this just classic PB right wing hypocrisy? Just let it happen
Genuinely think it's a distinct possibility Biden gets over 300
I would love it if it was 306 as that was my prediction (albeit with a slightly different roster of states).
If Biden wins all the remaining states (not impossible, but unlikely) then I called 49/50 States correctly in my forecast on Monday, missing only Florida, and I did pause over that one.
Rather regretting my pre dawn reverse ferret on Biden EV now.
Theresa seems an infinitely better politician after losing the premiership than she did throughout her entire career before and during it. The guarded, bot-like mien that was her hallmark for decades has vanished.
Some people are just not up to the top job. It's a tough job. But it's good that she seems to have learned something from her time at the top (probably about trusting Boris).
I wonder if in years gone by when people were fighting for gay rights, or the rights of women, whether people sat around and said we should just shut up and stop seeing politics through the prism of these pointless culture wars
It is often claimed polling error see-saws from one election to the next, as pollsters over-compensate for the errors of the previous election.
That hasn't happened here. The polls were wrong last time, and in the same direction and by roughly the same magnitude.
I also suspect most polls are conducted by firms that are less pro-Trump than the average voter.
Of course, all polling firms are really trying to get it right — their businesses will suffer if they have a consistent bias.
But, if you think Trump “should” do substantially worse than last election, and your polls are coming out that way, you will be less likely to question them than if you expected Trump to be doing well.
It all comes back to Dick Feynman, "The first principle is that you must not fool yourself –- and you are the easiest person to fool."
As a former Corbyn supporter, I think 2019 here and 2020 in the USA proves to me beyond doubt that what the public want is competence and good governance and something that won't scare them. Go on Keir, I have faith
Good luck Keir. Will be 2nd 2024
Technically, we can come second in 2024 and still become the government, quite possible in that case we have a government which over 50% voted for and then we can have a proper PR system implemented.
Honestly for me in 2024, that is the priority, ending FPTP.
Want pr put it to a referendum and watch it die in a fire
I see Nate Silver is now classing Arizona and Nevada as "Likely Biden", Pennsylvania as "Lean Biden", Georgia as "Tossup" (or "Lean Biden" if forced to choose) and North Carolina as "Likely Trump".
That's an exact match of the Democratic campaign chief – although she didn't explicitly mention NV and AZ when briefing CNN
Those sound about right, once that first 200,000 drop in Maricopa come in around 9pm local time, unless Trump does really well with them I'd be surprised if the other networks dont follow ABCs early lead and call it for Biden
As a former Corbyn supporter, I think 2019 here and 2020 in the USA proves to me beyond doubt that what the public want is competence and good governance and something that won't scare them. Go on Keir, I have faith
Good luck Keir. Will be 2nd 2024
Technically, we can come second in 2024 and still become the government, quite possible in that case we have a government which over 50% voted for and then we can have a proper PR system implemented.
Honestly for me in 2024, that is the priority, ending FPTP.
Not checking everything with SNP which will be your reality
SNP support PR. Or if they don't want to support Labour they're most welcome to explain why they put the Tories back into Government.
SNP only support themselves! That's why they wiped your party out in Scotland 2015 😀
If parties in 2024 stand on PR in their manifestos and they are able to form a government then no referendum is needed to deliver it. Just implement it.
As a former Corbyn supporter, I think 2019 here and 2020 in the USA proves to me beyond doubt that what the public want is competence and good governance and something that won't scare them. Go on Keir, I have faith
Good luck Keir. Will be 2nd 2024
Technically, we can come second in 2024 and still become the government, quite possible in that case we have a government which over 50% voted for and then we can have a proper PR system implemented.
Honestly for me in 2024, that is the priority, ending FPTP.
Not checking everything with SNP which will be your reality
SNP support PR. Or if they don't want to support Labour they're most welcome to explain why they put the Tories back into Government.
SNP only support themselves! That's why they wiped your party out in Scotland 2015 😀
SNP would have supported Labour in 2015 but I agree with you that Labour is dead in Scotland. Such is the reality, hence why we will have to get back in Wales (going well) and England (also going well).
I know his lawyers will be making more technical arguments around eligble votes and so on, and obviously those questions will get answers from other lawyers, but his whole message really does seem to be the (not unpredicted) 'The TV showed me leading before, not it is not, that is wrong'.
Trump takes WI/MI/PA by fractions of a percent : Truly a man of the people with a unique bond with blue collar America. Biden take WI/MI/PA by fractions of a percent: out of touch costal elite flukes victory
Good story.
Also, the Rep President is 'claiming' states he has either already lost or which have not been fully counted and he's not predicted to win...
...and yet it's the Dems that need to show more humility?
One of Grandpa Joes best features is his genuine desire for consensus. Perhaps because his formative years predate the current culture war. They were of course forged in an equally divisive time of desegregation and Vietnam War protests.
The remaining vote needs to come in at Biden +29.5 to draw level in PA. There's way more mail compared to in person, the mail has so far averaged Biden + 57.5
Kamala Harris was a shit choice for VP. I reckon she cost the Democrats a lot of ground.
Possibly so. A bit too Black, Indian, Female, and Californian for the swing voters.
She may well be a very good VP though. She seems quite feisty and intelligent.
Campaigning skill correlates very poorly, perhaps even inversely, with skill at governing.
I think the bigotry stuff is an excuse. Obama had no problems there.
Democrats really need to STOP seeing everything through the prism of race, gender and sexuality.
It really pisses a lot of people off and is BS.
If you think racial, sexuality and gender are no longer issues arousing prejudice in America, then perhaps you need to get out of your bubble and meet more ordinary folk.
Yep. And it's really frustrating to read Casino_Royale post that. I think he sometimes makes good points about prejudices on my side of politics (e.g. the Magna "Carter" stuff). But I'm going to be wary of agreeing with anything said by someone who claims that one president with African heritage demonstrates that bigotry is just an excuse.
If parties in 2024 stand on PR in their manifestos and they are able to form a government then no referendum is needed to deliver it. Just implement it.
ALL constitutional changes should go through a referendum. It is the peoples political system it doesnt belong to politicians. I would not have supported leaving the eu because a party with it in their manifesto won just because they had a majority either.
People vote for a party for a lot of reasons and usually dont agree with every policy, To make sweeping changes to our electoral system you absolutely need to have a specific mandate
One of Grandpa Joes best features is his genuine desire for consensus. Perhaps because his formative years predate the current culture war. They were of course forged in an equally divisive time of desegregation and Vietnam War protests.
He's also a man who has know significant personal loss in his life. I think that makes him more empathetic and a better man.
One of Grandpa Joes best features is his genuine desire for consensus. Perhaps because his formative years predate the current culture war. They were of course forged in an equally divisive time of desegregation and Vietnam War protests.
That desire for consensus was the root of his greatest regret - not letting more witness speak against Clarence Thomas in the confirmation hearings.
As a former Corbyn supporter, I think 2019 here and 2020 in the USA proves to me beyond doubt that what the public want is competence and good governance and something that won't scare them. Go on Keir, I have faith
Good luck Keir. Will be 2nd 2024
Technically, we can come second in 2024 and still become the government, quite possible in that case we have a government which over 50% voted for and then we can have a proper PR system implemented.
Honestly for me in 2024, that is the priority, ending FPTP.
Not checking everything with SNP which will be your reality
SNP support PR. Or if they don't want to support Labour they're most welcome to explain why they put the Tories back into Government.
SNP only support themselves! That's why they wiped your party out in Scotland 2015 😀
SNP would have supported Labour in 2015 but I agree with you that Labour is dead in Scotland. Such is the reality, hence why we will have to get back in Wales (going well) and England (also going well).
Wales? Drakeford? Going well? Good luck with that.
But I admire your enthusiasm. When I was young I was LAB too.
If parties in 2024 stand on PR in their manifestos and they are able to form a government then no referendum is needed to deliver it. Just implement it.
ALL constitutional changes should go through a referendum. It is the peoples political system it doesnt belong to politicians. I would not have supported leaving the eu because a party with it in their manifesto won just because they had a majority either.
People vote for a party for a lot of reasons and usually dont agree with every policy, To make sweeping changes to our electoral system you absolutely need to have a specific mandate
So presumably you supported a referendum on Johnson's deal after he won the election?
What will this victory mean for the next season of the Netflix show Space Force, where the, unseen, president was clearly meant to be a Trumpesque figure? That's the important question.
(show was only ok, it seemed a bit confused to me about whether it was meant to be zaney or not)
As a former Corbyn supporter, I think 2019 here and 2020 in the USA proves to me beyond doubt that what the public want is competence and good governance and something that won't scare them. Go on Keir, I have faith
Good luck Keir. Will be 2nd 2024
Technically, we can come second in 2024 and still become the government, quite possible in that case we have a government which over 50% voted for and then we can have a proper PR system implemented.
Honestly for me in 2024, that is the priority, ending FPTP.
Not checking everything with SNP which will be your reality
SNP support PR. Or if they don't want to support Labour they're most welcome to explain why they put the Tories back into Government.
SNP only support themselves! That's why they wiped your party out in Scotland 2015 😀
SNP would have supported Labour in 2015 but I agree with you that Labour is dead in Scotland. Such is the reality, hence why we will have to get back in Wales (going well) and England (also going well).
Wales? Drakeford? Going well? Good luck with that.
But I admire your enthusiasm. When I was young I was LAB too.
Erh yes, Labour is projected to win a landslide in Wales based on current polling.
No need to condescend me either thank you, I haven't condescended you.
I wonder if in years gone by when people were fighting for gay rights, or the rights of women, whether people sat around and said we should just shut up and stop seeing politics through the prism of these pointless culture wars
Absolutely they did. There is some strange idea culture wars are modern. We had a Civil War over one. And it was pretty much the dividing line between Whig/Tory thereafter.
I've a soft spot for Pennsylvania. My grandad and his wife designed their farmhouse and barn with the help of an itinerant carpenter in the late 1800s. They used hickory sourced from their woods and milled down the valley. Both still stand and appear in good shape. If you look in either of two directions you can see mountain ridges. Their rising spring never dries up.
I remember staying there for the World Boardgames Convention a few years ago. The local paper stacked for guests at reception was called Intercourse News. I laughed involuntarily, and the receptionist looked baffled - weird Brit laughs at a local paper? I muttered an apology and actually felt bad - some Americans are endearingly innocent, and why not?
I'm no fan of Fox News but it should be noted they haven't gone out of their way to help Trump - calling AZ well before other networks and calling WI and MI in line with other networks.
They could have created more mood music of uncertainty in these states - they have chosen not to.
I have been pleasantly surprised by their coverage, if not by the adverts. Although right now they are starting to slip back toward wall to wall crazies shouting at the moon.
If parties in 2024 stand on PR in their manifestos and they are able to form a government then no referendum is needed to deliver it. Just implement it.
ALL constitutional changes should go through a referendum. It is the peoples political system it doesnt belong to politicians. I would not have supported leaving the eu because a party with it in their manifesto won just because they had a majority either.
People vote for a party for a lot of reasons and usually dont agree with every policy, To make sweeping changes to our electoral system you absolutely need to have a specific mandate
In our system defining what would be a constitutional issue would not always be so straightforward I suspect. I don't see what 'the people's political system' has to do with implementing electoral system changes after an election win.
I'd be in favour of minimum turnout, perhaps a threshold above 50% for the big stuff, as many countries do, but having not had those for Sindy or Brexit I think trying it for future ones would be hard to defend.
48.1% of the national vote is way above what the polls were saying. 48.5% might have been enough. But it's not that, so he will have to vacate the White House.
It's going down way below that. The West coast is just getting warmed up.
Oh god, please say there is more 2016 style Clinton to win popular vote @1.05 36 hours after the election going on.
It's VERY STRANGE all these Bidenistas coming on here now when at 0300 on here they were crying.
Well done to Biden he's not my sort of thing but he's ok 👍😊
You make a fair point. I was feeling very down when I went to bed just after 3:00am. I honestly expected to wake up to wall to wall "Trump Wins Again" coverage.
The 2024 election could be between the two extremes but represented by younger candidates. An AOC vs a to-be-determined carrier of the Trump flame.
AOC is hardly an extremist. She would be a moderate Labourite were she in the UK.
Political extremism may be country dependent. I don't say that she is, but that she would be a moderate Labourite here doesn't mean she couldn't be on the political extreme in the US.
As a former Corbyn supporter, I think 2019 here and 2020 in the USA proves to me beyond doubt that what the public want is competence and good governance and something that won't scare them. Go on Keir, I have faith
Good luck Keir. Will be 2nd 2024
Technically, we can come second in 2024 and still become the government, quite possible in that case we have a government which over 50% voted for and then we can have a proper PR system implemented.
Honestly for me in 2024, that is the priority, ending FPTP.
Not checking everything with SNP which will be your reality
SNP support PR. Or if they don't want to support Labour they're most welcome to explain why they put the Tories back into Government.
SNP only support themselves! That's why they wiped your party out in Scotland 2015 😀
SNP would have supported Labour in 2015 but I agree with you that Labour is dead in Scotland. Such is the reality, hence why we will have to get back in Wales (going well) and England (also going well).
Wales? Drakeford? Going well? Good luck with that.
But I admire your enthusiasm. When I was young I was LAB too.
Erh yes, Labour is projected to win a landslide in Wales based on current polling.
No need to condescend me either thank you, I haven't condescended you.
I would never condescend you. You are one of my favourite posters.
Johnson will be left deeply exposed now, RIP USA trade deal, it's Brexit capitulation or economic disaster with No Deal on the way. What will he choose?
His friend in the world gone, populism rejected fairly decisively so far this year, he's a dying breed.
The 2024 election could be between the two extremes but represented by younger candidates. An AOC vs a to-be-determined carrier of the Trump flame.
AOC is hardly an extremist. She would be a moderate Labourite were she in the UK.
True, she's probably the best person to use in the example. What I mean is a candidate with a clear ideology, as opposed to just a centrist who isn't Trump, vs an ideologically-driven Trumpite, as opposed to Trump himself.
As a former Corbyn supporter, I think 2019 here and 2020 in the USA proves to me beyond doubt that what the public want is competence and good governance and something that won't scare them. Go on Keir, I have faith
Good luck Keir. Will be 2nd 2024
Technically, we can come second in 2024 and still become the government, quite possible in that case we have a government which over 50% voted for and then we can have a proper PR system implemented.
Honestly for me in 2024, that is the priority, ending FPTP.
Not checking everything with SNP which will be your reality
SNP support PR. Or if they don't want to support Labour they're most welcome to explain why they put the Tories back into Government.
SNP only support themselves! That's why they wiped your party out in Scotland 2015 😀
SNP would have supported Labour in 2015 but I agree with you that Labour is dead in Scotland. Such is the reality, hence why we will have to get back in Wales (going well) and England (also going well).
Wales? Drakeford? Going well? Good luck with that.
But I admire your enthusiasm. When I was young I was LAB too.
Erh yes, Labour is projected to win a landslide in Wales based on current polling.
No need to condescend me either thank you, I haven't condescended you.
I would never condescend you. You are one of my favourite posters.
I took the age comment to be fairly condescending but no worries.
Genuinely think it's a distinct possibility Biden gets over 300
I would love it if it was 306 as that was my prediction (albeit with a slightly different roster of states).
If Biden wins all the remaining states (not impossible, but unlikely) then I called 49/50 States correctly in my forecast on Monday, missing only Florida, and I did pause over that one.
Rather regretting my pre dawn reverse ferret on Biden EV now.
I had a rush of terrifying visceral fear when I came in on Biden's ECV 262 at 2.30am. Everything at that moment seemed to be sliding away and it felt like, 'oh no, not again.' I bet with my head not my heart. When I hit 'buy' it was a massive adrenaline rush.
Ironically it was Florida which convinced me, a State that I got totally wrong at state level. But the counties were showing significant swings to Biden from Clinton: 5% or more. The suburbs were voting for Biden. If that was replicated then eventually it had to pull him through in other battleground states. So I bought in the 260's.
I got lucky. It has offset some other errors: over excitement on some Senate races and Texas and Florida at State level, although I never thought Biden would win Texas. My tips on Bollier and Ossoff proved way out, although Perdue might not win that race outright by the time final tallies are in.
And on that subject, Republican Senators have outperformed Donald Trump.
If parties in 2024 stand on PR in their manifestos and they are able to form a government then no referendum is needed to deliver it. Just implement it.
ALL constitutional changes should go through a referendum. It is the peoples political system it doesnt belong to politicians. I would not have supported leaving the eu because a party with it in their manifesto won just because they had a majority either.
People vote for a party for a lot of reasons and usually dont agree with every policy, To make sweeping changes to our electoral system you absolutely need to have a specific mandate
So presumably you supported a referendum on Johnson's deal after he won the election?
The constitutional change was leaving the eu, johnsons deal or lack of is merely a trade treaty. For the record I think he has done an appalling job. However the difference is that trade deal can be amended by a new government in 2024 if they wish. Leaving the eu changing our voting system cant. The second can't is because picture it labour gets in next one is on pr, tories win next one is fptp.
Leaving the eu and the voting system are both by their nature long term changes that cant be changed easily by the next parliament. Long term changes need specific consent. I have absolutely no doubt pr would get about the same in a referendum as av even if a majority voted for parties with pr in their manifesto.
Sane people realise all pr does is allow parties to decide what their actual manifesto is after we have cast our vote and then use our votes to pretend they had a mandate.
Johnson will be left deeply exposed now, RIP USA trade deal, it's Brexit capitulation or economic disaster with No Deal on the way. What will he choose?
His friend in the world gone, populism rejected fairly decisively so far this year, he's a dying breed.
The pushing of the idea of his friendship with Trump is rather overblown I think. He's said things against Trump in the past, other world leaders have praised or at least feted Trump just as much or more, because he was President of the United States and that's what you do. Edit: It was even claimed in a clip from last year that Boris, Macron and Trudeau were all having a good laugh mocking Trump together at a NATO summit.
As a former Corbyn supporter, I think 2019 here and 2020 in the USA proves to me beyond doubt that what the public want is competence and good governance and something that won't scare them. Go on Keir, I have faith
Good luck Keir. Will be 2nd 2024
Technically, we can come second in 2024 and still become the government, quite possible in that case we have a government which over 50% voted for and then we can have a proper PR system implemented.
Honestly for me in 2024, that is the priority, ending FPTP.
Oh god we're not going to spend the next four years debating the virtues of FPTP Vs AV Vs PR again are we?
Nope. FPTP is shite, AV is 90% shite, and STV is the first step to the UK fixing its structural issues.
Comments
Dartford used to be ours.
And Greater London used to be the bellwether region.
I know way more about this stuff than you do.
Both side need to seek common ground. This is not simply about “city folk” having to pander to those in the towns.
Pretty good, although apparently he did diversify his vote a bit.
Also apparently that movie is 155 minutes long, which is news to me.
Biden take WI/MI/PA by fractions of a percent: out of touch costal elite flukes victory
Good story.
Rather regretting my pre dawn reverse ferret on Biden EV now.
https://twitter.com/joebiden/status/1324112939310264322?s=21
It is often claimed polling error see-saws from one election to the next, as pollsters over-compensate for the errors of the previous election.
That hasn't happened here. The polls were wrong last time, and in the same direction and by roughly the same magnitude.
I also suspect most polls are conducted by firms that are less pro-Trump than the average voter.
Of course, all polling firms are really trying to get it right — their businesses will suffer if they have a consistent bias.
But, if you think Trump “should” do substantially worse than last election, and your polls are coming out that way, you will be less likely to question them than if you expected Trump to be doing well.
It all comes back to Dick Feynman, "The first principle is that you must not fool yourself –- and you are the easiest person to fool."
Then the BBC news starts on about it.
...and yet it's the Dems that need to show more humility?
I'm looking at you @Casino_Royale.
There's way more mail compared to in person, the mail has so far averaged Biden + 57.5
People vote for a party for a lot of reasons and usually dont agree with every policy, To make sweeping changes to our electoral system you absolutely need to have a specific mandate
But I admire your enthusiasm. When I was young I was LAB too.
(show was only ok, it seemed a bit confused to me about whether it was meant to be zaney or not)
No need to condescend me either thank you, I haven't condescended you.
There is some strange idea culture wars are modern.
We had a Civil War over one.
And it was pretty much the dividing line between Whig/Tory thereafter.
On the bright side, Joe is the youngest of the Joe-Nancy-Mitch triumverate
Well done to Biden he's not my sort of thing but he's ok 👍😊
GOP
5.1
I'd be in favour of minimum turnout, perhaps a threshold above 50% for the big stuff, as many countries do, but having not had those for Sindy or Brexit I think trying it for future ones would be hard to defend.
Happily not!
Labour now have 28/40.
Next time they won't get 28/30.
Labour may proportionately increase their vote in Wales next GE, but it is baked in that the absolute number of Labour seats in Wales will go down.
His friend in the world gone, populism rejected fairly decisively so far this year, he's a dying breed.
Ironically it was Florida which convinced me, a State that I got totally wrong at state level. But the counties were showing significant swings to Biden from Clinton: 5% or more. The suburbs were voting for Biden. If that was replicated then eventually it had to pull him through in other battleground states. So I bought in the 260's.
I got lucky. It has offset some other errors: over excitement on some Senate races and Texas and Florida at State level, although I never thought Biden would win Texas. My tips on Bollier and Ossoff proved way out, although Perdue might not win that race outright by the time final tallies are in.
And on that subject, Republican Senators have outperformed Donald Trump.
https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/1324095568315060236?s=20
https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1324114540238409728?s=20
France
04/11 40,558
28/10 36,437
21/10 26,676
14/10 22,591
07/10 18,746
Germany
04/11 20,218
28/10 16,202
21/10 10,457
14/10 6,063
07/10 3,994
Italy
04/11 30,550
28/10 24,989
21/10 15,198
14/10 7,331
07/10 3,678
Poland
04/11 24,962
28/10 18,820
21/10 10,040
14/10 6,526
07/10 3,003
Spain
04/11 25,177
28/10 19,765
21/10 18,138
14/10 15,409
07/10 11,985
UK
04/11 25,177
28/10 24,701
21/10 26,684
14/10 19,722
07/10 14,162
I wonder if the UK's tier system was beginning to work.
Leaving the eu and the voting system are both by their nature long term changes that cant be changed easily by the next parliament. Long term changes need specific consent. I have absolutely no doubt pr would get about the same in a referendum as av even if a majority voted for parties with pr in their manifesto.
Sane people realise all pr does is allow parties to decide what their actual manifesto is after we have cast our vote and then use our votes to pretend they had a mandate.
I will be interested to see if the constituency reduction does make a difference, I am not convinced.
As well as to be relevant over the next 4 years.
For all of HYUFD's praise of Trump, it's not easy to lose as incumbent President. It's only happened three times before today.
We'll keep FPTP, and be fucked as a result.
Debate done.