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Biden moves to an 84% chance of victory on the exchanges as the scale of his likely victory becomes

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Comments

  • Who was the source? Michael Gove?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153



    I am still glad to see Trump gone but I hold out no hope for a Biden presidency what so ever. Even though if I had been a US citizen I would have voted for him.

    Yep. The idea that Biden gets in and it's going to all be motherhood and apple pie is for the birds.

    The division and violence can only get worse and worse and worse from here (but the same would be true with Trump and even more so)

    USA is in a absolutely terrible state.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    CNN call MI for Biden.
    That means he just needs PA or any 2 from AZ,NV,GA,NC.

    Well he's won Arizona so it's one from any of those

    (Biden camp are saying they have flipped Arizona)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    Luzerne County

    Voted 58%/38% for Trump in 2016

    VBM
    70% Biden
    30% Trump

    Westmoreland 64/32 for Trump
    VBM
    68% Biden
    31% Trump

    Postal vote are flowing to Biden for every corner of the state.

    Wow. Just wow.

    Biden just mentioned PA in his speech.

    They've won it I think.
    Yeah, it's a done deal. No way to lose it from here, winning margin of 200k or so I think.
    My poor Trump supporting colleague will be ever so upset, they were very chipper this morning and thought there was no way back for Biden.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Scott_xP said:
    How the hell would Vanity Fair know?
    Jerry Hall?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080

    GIN1138 said:

    Biggest winner from this election...China.

    Big Don and his tariffs will be gone, so back to business as normal. Sleepy Joe won't stand up to them and will be busy making America less competitive with higher wages and focus on environmental regulations, but will get bogged down with the senate against him.

    While the population will be split and I don't see an end to the disturbances.

    To be fair it's been a long term trend for a while. 2016 and now 2020 has just accelerated it.

    USA is falling. China is rising. New era is nearly upon us...
    Wrong.

    A Biden presidency will make a concordat between China and the US far more likely, benefiting both nations.
    Nah. One of the very very few things Trump did right was to highlight what a risk China represents to the West, and not just the US. If Biden thinks he can do deals with China then they will wipe the floor with him.

    I am still glad to see Trump gone but I hold out no hope for a Biden presidency what so ever. Even though if I had been a US citizen I would have voted for him.
    How did Trump do that?

    He sucked up to President Xi. He stood by while Hong Kong was fucked. He withdrew from the Pacific Partnership that was intended to build alliances to contain China.

    Sure, he started a trade war, and he's tried to blame China for his failures on the Coronavirus, but the idea that he's a China hawk doesn't fit the facts.
  • Alistair said:

    Luzerne County

    Voted 58%/38% for Trump in 2016

    VBM
    70% Biden
    30% Trump

    Westmoreland 64/32 for Trump
    VBM
    68% Biden
    31% Trump

    Postal vote are flowing to Biden for every corner of the state.

    Wow. Just wow.

    Biden just mentioned PA in his speech.

    They've won it I think.
    I bored everyone on Zoom with my Pennsylvania model, which doesn't really work because it can't differentiate by mode of voting - but, it peaked at an implausible Trump win by 400k when the on the day vote results came in, and has been falling by around 40k for every 4% of the vote that comes in since then. If that holds for the remainder, Trump wins the state by 3000 votes. I don't think that's right, I think Biden has it. But it is going to the wire.
  • CNN call MI for Biden.
    That means he just needs PA or any 2 from AZ,NV,GA,NC.

    270 enough for the Betfair market but just takes 1/270 electors to switch and its four more years. He needs PA+1 or 3 of the others to ensure he gets inaugurated.
  • Looks like my guess of 275+ is looking quite good
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Biggest winner from this election...China.

    Big Don and his tariffs will be gone, so back to business as normal. Sleepy Joe won't stand up to them and will be busy making America less competitive with higher wages and focus on environmental regulations, but will get bogged down with the senate against him.

    While the population will be split and I don't see an end to the disturbances.

    To be fair it's been a long term trend for a while. 2016 and now 2020 has just accelerated it.

    USA is falling. China is rising. New era is nearly upon us...
    Wrong.

    A Biden presidency will make a concordat between China and the US far more likely, benefiting both nations.
    Nah. One of the very very few things Trump did right was to highlight what a risk China represents to the West, and not just the US. If Biden thinks he can do deals with China then they will wipe the floor with him.

    I am still glad to see Trump gone but I hold out no hope for a Biden presidency what so ever. Even though if I had been a US citizen I would have voted for him.
    Biden is like syphilis.

    Trump is like AIDS.

    You wouldn't want to end up with either of them, but in a forced choice it's pretty obvious which one you'd want to go for.
    Very easy choice, so not a good simile. Antibiotics clears the one, zip! Nothing can clear the other.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662

    CNN call MI for Biden.
    That means he just needs PA or any 2 from AZ,NV,GA,NC.

    Well he's won Arizona so it's one from any of those

    (Biden camp are saying they have flipped Arizona)
    NV count is due tomorrow NV time.
  • Trump > 6 now on BF
  • Kamala Harris was a shit choice for VP. I reckon she cost the Democrats a lot of ground.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Alistair said:

    Luzerne County

    Voted 58%/38% for Trump in 2016

    VBM
    70% Biden
    30% Trump

    Westmoreland 64/32 for Trump
    VBM
    68% Biden
    31% Trump

    Postal vote are flowing to Biden for every corner of the state.

    Wow. Just wow.

    Biden just mentioned PA in his speech.

    They've won it I think.
    I bored everyone on Zoom with my Pennsylvania model, which doesn't really work because it can't differentiate by mode of voting - but, it peaked at an implausible Trump win by 400k when the on the day vote results came in, and has been falling by around 40k for every 4% of the vote that comes in since then. If that holds for the remainder, Trump wins the state by 3000 votes. I don't think that's right, I think Biden has it. But it is going to the wire.
    Although don't forget late votes on top.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited November 2020
    I think it would be a good thing all round if the networks are able to call it for Biden today. That may be possible.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    Luzerne County

    Voted 58%/38% for Trump in 2016

    VBM
    70% Biden
    30% Trump

    Westmoreland 64/32 for Trump
    VBM
    68% Biden
    31% Trump

    Postal vote are flowing to Biden for every corner of the state.

    Wow. Just wow.

    Biden just mentioned PA in his speech.

    They've won it I think.
    Yeah, it's a done deal. No way to lose it from here, winning margin of 200k or so I think.
    Yes, my most conservative estimate (which gives Mail 60/40 to Biden in any county Trump won with more than 55% of the vote in 2016 and only 78/20 to Biden in others) gives Biden a 150,000 vote cushion.

    Mail in numbers will be better than that for Biden. For instance Delaware County was 85% VBM for Biden

  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    Nate Cohn sees very confident on PA now, so echos what Biden said. I was expecting him to simply say ' we are doing well in PA' but he seemed much more positive.So does start to look like its just a case of dragging the kicking and screaming Trump from the WH
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    CNN call MI for Biden.
    That means he just needs PA or any 2 from AZ,NV,GA,NC.

    Well he's won Arizona so it's one from any of those

    (Biden camp are saying they have flipped Arizona)
    Indeed, and Fox Decision Desk, and AP ––– and last but not least @rcs1000
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    edited November 2020
    From the 538 page there is this comment

    The Trump campaign is asking the Supreme Court to intervene again in the case about Pennsylvania’s ballot receipt deadline. In the lead-up to the election, the justices twice declined Republicans’ request to overrule the Pennsylvania Supreme Court decision that extended the deadline by three days, but also didn’t say the state court’s decision was constitutional — in fact, three of the conservative justices overtly signaled that they thought it was not, and left open the possibility that the case could be revisited if the late-arriving ballots were decisive


    I vaguely recall it coming up a few days ago, but I struggle to see how the court could have decided not to intervene, but justify giving leeway to have a intervene later if it looked like they could make a difference (I presume they didn't put it quite like that). I mean, either what they were asked about was ok or it wasn't, what legal reason to park it?
  • Alistair said:

    Luzerne County

    Voted 58%/38% for Trump in 2016

    VBM
    70% Biden
    30% Trump

    Westmoreland 64/32 for Trump
    VBM
    68% Biden
    31% Trump

    Postal vote are flowing to Biden for every corner of the state.

    Wow. Just wow.

    Biden just mentioned PA in his speech.

    They've won it I think.
    I bored everyone on Zoom with my Pennsylvania model, which doesn't really work because it can't differentiate by mode of voting - but, it peaked at an implausible Trump win by 400k when the on the day vote results came in, and has been falling by around 40k for every 4% of the vote that comes in since then. If that holds for the remainder, Trump wins the state by 3000 votes. I don't think that's right, I think Biden has it. But it is going to the wire.
    Scrap that. Just made a minor tweak to account for some counties being pretty much 100% reported, and now the trend would see Biden take the lead when we get to 96% counted and thus ultimately win by almost 40,000 votes.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153

    Kamala Harris was a shit choice for VP. I reckon she cost the Democrats a lot of ground.

    Well she's going to be POTUS soon so it will be interesting to see what happens.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    kle4 said:

    From the 538 page there is this comment

    The Trump campaign is asking the Supreme Court to intervene again in the case about Pennsylvania’s ballot receipt deadline. In the lead-up to the election, the justices twice declined Republicans’ request to overrule the Pennsylvania Supreme Court decision that extended the deadline by three days, but also didn’t say the state court’s decision was constitutional — in fact, three of the conservative justices overtly signaled that they thought it was not, and left open the possibility that the case could be revisited if the late-arriving ballots were decisive


    I vaguely recall it coming up a few days ago, but I struggle to see how the court could have decided not to intervene, but justify giving leeway to have a intervene later if it looked like they could make a difference (I presume they didn't put it quite like that).

    Might be irrelevant anyway.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320

    Who was the source? Michael Gove?
    You can suspect him if a story appears about Trump asking the Queen to intervene.
  • Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    Luzerne County

    Voted 58%/38% for Trump in 2016

    VBM
    70% Biden
    30% Trump

    Westmoreland 64/32 for Trump
    VBM
    68% Biden
    31% Trump

    Postal vote are flowing to Biden for every corner of the state.

    Wow. Just wow.

    Biden just mentioned PA in his speech.

    They've won it I think.
    Yeah, it's a done deal. No way to lose it from here, winning margin of 200k or so I think.
    Yes, my most conservative estimate (which gives Mail 60/40 to Biden in any county Trump won with more than 55% of the vote in 2016 and only 78/20 to Biden in others) gives Biden a 150,000 vote cushion.

    Mail in numbers will be better than that for Biden. For instance Delaware County was 85% VBM for Biden

    BF thinks Biden has Penn.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    I think it would be a good thing all round if the networks are able to call it for Biden today. That may be possible.

    If the Pennsylvanians pull their fingers out it could be sorted tonight.

    PA (20) does the trick now.

    253

    273 to win.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Dems @1.22 in Pennsylvania
  • CNN call MI for Biden.
    That means he just needs PA or any 2 from AZ,NV,GA,NC.

    AZ has already been called for Biden!
  • GIN1138 said:

    Biggest winner from this election...China.

    Big Don and his tariffs will be gone, so back to business as normal. Sleepy Joe won't stand up to them and will be busy making America less competitive with higher wages and focus on environmental regulations, but will get bogged down with the senate against him.

    While the population will be split and I don't see an end to the disturbances.

    To be fair it's been a long term trend for a while. 2016 and now 2020 has just accelerated it.

    USA is falling. China is rising. New era is nearly upon us...
    Wrong.

    A Biden presidency will make a concordat between China and the US far more likely, benefiting both nations.
    Nah. One of the very very few things Trump did right was to highlight what a risk China represents to the West, and not just the US. If Biden thinks he can do deals with China then they will wipe the floor with him.

    I am still glad to see Trump gone but I hold out no hope for a Biden presidency what so ever. Even though if I had been a US citizen I would have voted for him.
    How did Trump do that?

    He sucked up to President Xi. He stood by while Hong Kong was fucked. He withdrew from the Pacific Partnership that was intended to build alliances to contain China.

    Sure, he started a trade war, and he's tried to blame China for his failures on the Coronavirus, but the idea that he's a China hawk doesn't fit the facts.
    He was at least doing something. Far more than Obama did or Biden will do.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    alex_ said:

    kle4 said:

    From the 538 page there is this comment

    The Trump campaign is asking the Supreme Court to intervene again in the case about Pennsylvania’s ballot receipt deadline. In the lead-up to the election, the justices twice declined Republicans’ request to overrule the Pennsylvania Supreme Court decision that extended the deadline by three days, but also didn’t say the state court’s decision was constitutional — in fact, three of the conservative justices overtly signaled that they thought it was not, and left open the possibility that the case could be revisited if the late-arriving ballots were decisive


    I vaguely recall it coming up a few days ago, but I struggle to see how the court could have decided not to intervene, but justify giving leeway to have a intervene later if it looked like they could make a difference (I presume they didn't put it quite like that).

    Might be irrelevant anyway.
    Maybe, but with things like this, or various skulduggery or legal arcanery by any side, what was attempted is important even if it does not succeed.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Kamala Harris was a shit choice for VP. I reckon she cost the Democrats a lot of ground.

    No idea why she was selected.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    I think it would be a good thing all round if the networks are able to call it for Biden today. That may be possible.

    If the Pennsylvanians pull their fingers out it could be sorted tonight.

    PA (20) does the trick now.

    253

    273 to win.

    I think he will do it without needing Penn
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Alistair said:

    Kamala Harris was a shit choice for VP. I reckon she cost the Democrats a lot of ground.

    No idea why she was selected.
    Maybe because she'll be a good President ;)
  • GIN1138 said:

    Biggest winner from this election...China.

    Big Don and his tariffs will be gone, so back to business as normal. Sleepy Joe won't stand up to them and will be busy making America less competitive with higher wages and focus on environmental regulations, but will get bogged down with the senate against him.

    While the population will be split and I don't see an end to the disturbances.

    To be fair it's been a long term trend for a while. 2016 and now 2020 has just accelerated it.

    USA is falling. China is rising. New era is nearly upon us...
    Wrong.

    A Biden presidency will make a concordat between China and the US far more likely, benefiting both nations.
    Nah. One of the very very few things Trump did right was to highlight what a risk China represents to the West, and not just the US. If Biden thinks he can do deals with China then they will wipe the floor with him.

    I am still glad to see Trump gone but I hold out no hope for a Biden presidency what so ever. Even though if I had been a US citizen I would have voted for him.
    There was a lot of chat on here before GE2016 that Trump was full of a lot of hot air but would basically govern like a Romney. As he's basically a wealthy New Yorker at heart.

    That turned out to be false. One thing that really struck me throughout Trump's term in office is how hard he tried to implement all of his manifesto and creative ways to do if he was blocked.

    That will have impressed his base even if he wasn't wholly successful - because they will feel they can trust him.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,255
    Toms said:

    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Biggest winner from this election...China.

    Big Don and his tariffs will be gone, so back to business as normal. Sleepy Joe won't stand up to them and will be busy making America less competitive with higher wages and focus on environmental regulations, but will get bogged down with the senate against him.

    While the population will be split and I don't see an end to the disturbances.

    To be fair it's been a long term trend for a while. 2016 and now 2020 has just accelerated it.

    USA is falling. China is rising. New era is nearly upon us...
    Wrong.

    A Biden presidency will make a concordat between China and the US far more likely, benefiting both nations.
    Nah. One of the very very few things Trump did right was to highlight what a risk China represents to the West, and not just the US. If Biden thinks he can do deals with China then they will wipe the floor with him.

    I am still glad to see Trump gone but I hold out no hope for a Biden presidency what so ever. Even though if I had been a US citizen I would have voted for him.
    Biden is like syphilis.

    Trump is like AIDS.

    You wouldn't want to end up with either of them, but in a forced choice it's pretty obvious which one you'd want to go for.
    What's Boris like?
    Dunno, but we've been speculating about whether, next year, he's a gonorr, here.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Chris said:

    Life is going to be shit for a lot longer.....

    But Ms Bingham — chair of the Vaccine Taskforce — said problems with ramping up manufacturing capacity meant the UK fell well short of this target. She predicted only 4million doses will be available before 2021.

    Both Professor Pollard and Ms Bingham warned the first wave of vaccines would not be good enough to allow society to immediately return to normal, scuppering Boris Johnson's promise that 'life will return to normal next summer'.

    Nobody knows how good they are until the trial data are released.

    As for Ms Bingham, she has a bachelor's science degree, an MBA and a career in investment management. God knows who thought it would be a good idea to give her this job - apart from her husband, of course, who is a Tory minister.
    Just to be clear that is a 30 year career investing in emerging biotechnology companies based on scientific diligence?

    Kate is unbelievably well qualified for this role and has done a fantastic job.

    I like Dido more - she’s much nicer - but Kate is more effective
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662

    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    Luzerne County

    Voted 58%/38% for Trump in 2016

    VBM
    70% Biden
    30% Trump

    Westmoreland 64/32 for Trump
    VBM
    68% Biden
    31% Trump

    Postal vote are flowing to Biden for every corner of the state.

    Wow. Just wow.

    Biden just mentioned PA in his speech.

    They've won it I think.
    Yeah, it's a done deal. No way to lose it from here, winning margin of 200k or so I think.
    Yes, my most conservative estimate (which gives Mail 60/40 to Biden in any county Trump won with more than 55% of the vote in 2016 and only 78/20 to Biden in others) gives Biden a 150,000 vote cushion.

    Mail in numbers will be better than that for Biden. For instance Delaware County was 85% VBM for Biden

    BF thinks Biden has Penn.
    The early mail voting numbers showed what might happen. Probably why Trump started the postal vote fraud narrative weeks ago. Some of those EV numbers were just incredible.
  • Pippa's giving Mirror readers heart attacks (or serious indigestion, at best....)


  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    CNN headline: 'Joe Biden on the cusp of 270'

    https://edition.cnn.com
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Charles said:

    Chris said:

    Life is going to be shit for a lot longer.....

    But Ms Bingham — chair of the Vaccine Taskforce — said problems with ramping up manufacturing capacity meant the UK fell well short of this target. She predicted only 4million doses will be available before 2021.

    Both Professor Pollard and Ms Bingham warned the first wave of vaccines would not be good enough to allow society to immediately return to normal, scuppering Boris Johnson's promise that 'life will return to normal next summer'.

    Nobody knows how good they are until the trial data are released.

    As for Ms Bingham, she has a bachelor's science degree, an MBA and a career in investment management. God knows who thought it would be a good idea to give her this job - apart from her husband, of course, who is a Tory minister.
    Just to be clear that is a 30 year career investing in emerging biotechnology companies based on scientific diligence?

    Kate is unbelievably well qualified for this role and has done a fantastic job.

    I like Dido more - she’s much nicer - but Kate is more effective
    A high bar, clearly.
  • Johnson left exposed, populism is dying and sensible moderate politics is back on the menu. Go Keir!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    I think it would be a good thing all round if the networks are able to call it for Biden today. That may be possible.

    If the Pennsylvanians pull their fingers out it could be sorted tonight.

    PA (20) does the trick now.

    253

    273 to win.

    I think he will do it without needing Penn
    That forecast implies Biden 290 unless you also think he'll pick up GA for the lols?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    Luzerne County

    Voted 58%/38% for Trump in 2016

    VBM
    70% Biden
    30% Trump

    Westmoreland 64/32 for Trump
    VBM
    68% Biden
    31% Trump

    Postal vote are flowing to Biden for every corner of the state.

    Wow. Just wow.

    Biden just mentioned PA in his speech.

    They've won it I think.
    Yeah, it's a done deal. No way to lose it from here, winning margin of 200k or so I think.
    Yes, my most conservative estimate (which gives Mail 60/40 to Biden in any county Trump won with more than 55% of the vote in 2016 and only 78/20 to Biden in others) gives Biden a 150,000 vote cushion.

    Mail in numbers will be better than that for Biden. For instance Delaware County was 85% VBM for Biden

    BF thinks Biden has Penn.
    I have made my call. My word is law.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    kle4 said:

    From the 538 page there is this comment

    The Trump campaign is asking the Supreme Court to intervene again in the case about Pennsylvania’s ballot receipt deadline. In the lead-up to the election, the justices twice declined Republicans’ request to overrule the Pennsylvania Supreme Court decision that extended the deadline by three days, but also didn’t say the state court’s decision was constitutional — in fact, three of the conservative justices overtly signaled that they thought it was not, and left open the possibility that the case could be revisited if the late-arriving ballots were decisive


    I vaguely recall it coming up a few days ago, but I struggle to see how the court could have decided not to intervene, but justify giving leeway to have a intervene later if it looked like they could make a difference (I presume they didn't put it quite like that). I mean, either what they were asked about was ok or it wasn't, what legal reason to park it?

    It's not going to make a difference. Biden will win the state without late arriving ballot papers, which will be a smallish number anyway.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    CNN headline: 'Joe Biden on the cusp of 270'

    https://edition.cnn.com

    Presumably they just mean in the sense that he's one state away.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Kamala Harris was a shit choice for VP. I reckon she cost the Democrats a lot of ground.

    Well she's going to be POTUS soon so it will be interesting to see what happens.
    And I think that's why a lot of voters in the swing states held back from Biden.

    Biden has won by waver thin margins here in just a few places.

    We shouldn't be blinded by the high national vote off record turnout.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    Penn DEM glancing down at 1.2 on Betfair.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    If PA is going to flip which is looking likely now I will modestly repost my projection from two days ago :)
    https://www.270towin.com/maps/n0Kld.png
    If its any consolation,,,,I thought Remain would win :)
  • Looks like my guess of 275+ is looking quite good

    My prediction of 306 is still on. Where we are now, plus NV, AZ, PA and GA for Biden.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    What happens if Trump just says I don't accept the result, its fraud and I'm not leaving the White House?
  • Trump at 7.2
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    I see even in deep Red Wyoming 2 counties went for Biden (1 more than for Hilary), and one by 38%. I wonder if that's the fewest counties for one of the parties in any state (given it is very low population state).
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    GIN1138 said:

    What happens if Trump just says I don't accept the result, its fraud and I'm not leaving the White House?

    He ends up in jail.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456
    edited November 2020
    kle4 said:

    From the 538 page there is this comment

    The Trump campaign is asking the Supreme Court to intervene again in the case about Pennsylvania’s ballot receipt deadline. In the lead-up to the election, the justices twice declined Republicans’ request to overrule the Pennsylvania Supreme Court decision that extended the deadline by three days, but also didn’t say the state court’s decision was constitutional — in fact, three of the conservative justices overtly signaled that they thought it was not, and left open the possibility that the case could be revisited if the late-arriving ballots were decisive


    I vaguely recall it coming up a few days ago, but I struggle to see how the court could have decided not to intervene, but justify giving leeway to have a intervene later if it looked like they could make a difference (I presume they didn't put it quite like that). I mean, either what they were asked about was ok or it wasn't, what legal reason to park it?

    Separation of powers, would be my guess. If the question asked in the first case were narrow enough that it falls within the jurisdiction of state courts, not federal courts, a conservative court would refuse to take a case on those grounds. But if a different issue were brought up, say one claiming actions that have created unequal voting rights, then they might decide that that new question about the same circumstance is now rightly a federal issue, where federal courts assert primacy over state courts.

    or something like that
  • GIN1138 said:

    What happens if Trump just says I don't accept the result, its fraud and I'm not leaving the White House?

    The authorities can frogmarch him out.
  • In the end a good result for everyone:

    Trump would not have enjoyed a second term - I'm not sure he every wanted to become President to begin with - and he'll think he's been cheated which will reassure him.

    The Dems get the Presidency, hopefully have learnt a little humility and wont be able to gerrymander the Supreme Court and Senate.

    The Republicans are rid of Trump, keep the Senate and will be expecting to make big gains in 2022.

    Ordinary Americans have seen the whole political system disgrace itself so may be supportive of change.

    And I've made a very nice amount of money - nicely topped up this morning.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,919
    GIN1138 said:

    What happens if Trump just says I don't accept the result, its fraud and I'm not leaving the White House?

    Pence conspires with the cabinet to invoke the 25th and gets to spend a couple of months as President.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    GIN1138 said:

    What happens if Trump just says I don't accept the result, its fraud and I'm not leaving the White House?

    I think you mean 'when' not 'what if'
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,123
    edited November 2020

    Kamala Harris was a shit choice for VP. I reckon she cost the Democrats a lot of ground.

    I really do think that's absolute nonsense.

    She was a safe choice who performed reasonably well in the VP debate, made no significant slip ups, campaigned with the required energy, and had fairly good favourability ratings.

    VP choices don't win elections. Sometimes they can be a major drag on the ticket (Eagleton,briefly, and Palin, eventually). But there's no basis at all for saying Harris was anything like that. Sometimes, in a very close election, they might help you over the line (Johnson, arguably). But overwhelmingly they are chosen on the basis of "do no harm". That was true of Harris, and she did no harm.

    And I'd say Pence was a sensible VP choice on exactly the same basis (and Kaine was for Clinton).
  • Trump at 7.2

    More like 50/1 now.
  • Penn DEM glancing down at 1.2 on Betfair.

    Rather pleased I got on at 3 early today.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Scott_xP said:
    I just love the idea that Trump isn't going to lose thinking that Fox News have cost him the election.

  • I was surprised to see both Ohio and Texas comfortably won by Trump in the end.

    Perhaps the PBers who were predicting knife edge results from the actual returns are not as expert as they thought they were.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,354
    Alistair said:

    Kamala Harris was a shit choice for VP. I reckon she cost the Democrats a lot of ground.

    No idea why she was selected.
    Because the Dems want to deliver a black woman President - but know one would never get elected in her own right?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Looks like my guess of 275+ is looking quite good

    My prediction of 306 is still on. Where we are now, plus NV, AZ, PA and GA for Biden.
    I think 290 or 306. Either will look convincing given his clear win in the popular vote.

    It does, however, mask some squeaky wins in midwestern states but I guess that will soon be forgotten.
  • Not people who think they've won (legitimately...)

    https://twitter.com/maxwalden_/status/1324100924810293249?s=20
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    GIN1138 said:

    What happens if Trump just says I don't accept the result, its fraud and I'm not leaving the White House?

    I don't see how he carries his party or the authorities with him on such a stance. But he doesn't need to. Moaning about how rigged it is and refusing to concede (should, as it appears, the moment comes) is a classic move in many failing, failed or struggling democracies and autocrats will love it - the US president himself talkign about how rigged the elections are, so they can say see it is the same all over the world.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    GIN1138 said:

    Kamala Harris was a shit choice for VP. I reckon she cost the Democrats a lot of ground.

    Well she's going to be POTUS soon so it will be interesting to see what happens.
    And I think that's why a lot of voters in the swing states held back from Biden.

    Biden has won by waver thin margins here in just a few places.

    We shouldn't be blinded by the high national vote off record turnout.
    Although I am a fan personally, I think you are right from an electoral standpoint that she was a drag on the ticket.

    My friend at cricket club is a moderate Republican, voting for Biden because he loathes Trump and what he has done to America: "We just gotta get him out".

    He was against the appointment not because he didn't like Harris himself but because he said that many blue collar men simply wouldn't vote for a woman.

    I found that very sad and worrying, but he was probably right.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080

    GIN1138 said:

    Biggest winner from this election...China.

    Big Don and his tariffs will be gone, so back to business as normal. Sleepy Joe won't stand up to them and will be busy making America less competitive with higher wages and focus on environmental regulations, but will get bogged down with the senate against him.

    While the population will be split and I don't see an end to the disturbances.

    To be fair it's been a long term trend for a while. 2016 and now 2020 has just accelerated it.

    USA is falling. China is rising. New era is nearly upon us...
    Wrong.

    A Biden presidency will make a concordat between China and the US far more likely, benefiting both nations.
    Nah. One of the very very few things Trump did right was to highlight what a risk China represents to the West, and not just the US. If Biden thinks he can do deals with China then they will wipe the floor with him.

    I am still glad to see Trump gone but I hold out no hope for a Biden presidency what so ever. Even though if I had been a US citizen I would have voted for him.
    How did Trump do that?

    He sucked up to President Xi. He stood by while Hong Kong was fucked. He withdrew from the Pacific Partnership that was intended to build alliances to contain China.

    Sure, he started a trade war, and he's tried to blame China for his failures on the Coronavirus, but the idea that he's a China hawk doesn't fit the facts.
    He was at least doing something. Far more than Obama did or Biden will do.
    But what he did at first was to suck up to Xi, the same he's sucked up to every dictator. That made things worse.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153

    I was surprised to see both Ohio and Texas comfortably won by Trump in the end.

    Perhaps the PBers who were predicting knife edge results from the actual returns are not as expert as they thought they were.

    As though Biden was ever going to take Texas lol!
  • Kamala Harris was a shit choice for VP. I reckon she cost the Democrats a lot of ground.

    I really do think that's absolute nonsense.

    She was a safe choice who performed reasonably well in the VP debate, made no significant slip ups, campaigned with the required energy, and had fairly good favourability ratings.

    VP choices don't win elections. Sometimes they can be a major drag on the ticket (Eagleton,briefly, and Palin, eventually). But there's no basis at all for saying Harris was anything like that. Sometimes, in a very close election, they might help you over the line (Johnson). But overwhelmingly they are chosen on the basis of "do no harm". That was true of Harris, and she did no harm.

    And I'd say Pence was a sensible VP choice on exactly the same basis (and Kaine was for Clinton).
    Nah. She's a Queen of Wokeness - see the totally stupid tweet she posted at the weekend that riled many - and people would have been worried she'd be steering behind the scenes and could take over as President during Biden's term of office. It's actually very similar to the concerns people had of Palin taking over from McCain in 2008.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    GIN1138 said:



    I am still glad to see Trump gone but I hold out no hope for a Biden presidency what so ever. Even though if I had been a US citizen I would have voted for him.

    Yep. The idea that Biden gets in and it's going to all be motherhood and apple pie is for the birds.

    The division and violence can only get worse and worse and worse from here (but the same would be true with Trump and even more so)

    USA is in a absolutely terrible state.
    I wonder though if there's an outside possibility that with Trump gone, the GOP in the US Senate will take a step back and realise quite how far down the rabbithole Trump has dragged them. And look to work with Biden going forward. They've got their prize of the Supreme Court lock after all.

  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    Charles said:

    Chris said:

    Life is going to be shit for a lot longer.....

    But Ms Bingham — chair of the Vaccine Taskforce — said problems with ramping up manufacturing capacity meant the UK fell well short of this target. She predicted only 4million doses will be available before 2021.

    Both Professor Pollard and Ms Bingham warned the first wave of vaccines would not be good enough to allow society to immediately return to normal, scuppering Boris Johnson's promise that 'life will return to normal next summer'.

    Nobody knows how good they are until the trial data are released.

    As for Ms Bingham, she has a bachelor's science degree, an MBA and a career in investment management. God knows who thought it would be a good idea to give her this job - apart from her husband, of course, who is a Tory minister.
    Just to be clear that is a 30 year career investing in emerging biotechnology companies based on scientific diligence?

    Kate is unbelievably well qualified for this role and has done a fantastic job.

    I like Dido more - she’s much nicer - but Kate is more effective
    She actually said that as a matter of policy she didn't want to vaccinate the whole population - because the vaccine will have side effects. She really said that to the press!

    While most of the world is hoping they can persuade enough people to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity, she's actively trying to avoid universal vaccination.

    Still, perhaps she was appointed in order to try to make Johnson look bright by comparison?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    No nativity this year because the 3 Wise Men face a travel ban.

    The shepherds have been furloughed.

    The Inn keeper has shut under tier 3 regulations and had a slump in bookings.

    Santa won't be working as he would break the rule of 6 with Dasher, Dancer, Prancer, Vixen, Donner, and Blitzen.

    As for Rudolph, with that red nose, he should be isolating and taking a test.

    Santa is a COVID super spreader. He’d better be wearing a damn mask
    Only in certain niche movies
  • Bettors fleeing Trumpy like there's no tomorrow.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    Biden's biggest job is Covid.

    He needs to restart anything Trump blocked.

    And Trump supporters who attended superspreader events are going to start to get sick, so just maybe they will understand it
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    Mal557 said:

    If PA is going to flip which is looking likely now I will modestly repost my projection from two days ago :)
    https://www.270towin.com/maps/n0Kld.png
    If its any consolation,,,,I thought Remain would win :)

    That could be spot on. GA is the spoiler so you'll need Trump to hold on there to claim PB victory.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    Johnson left exposed, populism is dying and sensible moderate politics is back on the menu. Go Keir!

    That's your conclusion when what the polls said would be an easy landslide yesterday turned into a painfully ground-out nailbiter? I'm more confident than ever that we'll be able to hold off Sir Borealot in 2024.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    edited November 2020
    Kanye West has conceded.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    Trump

    8.8
  • Re covid

    The countries which were doing extremely badly a week ago - Belgium and the Czech Republic -have much reduced, though still high, new cases this week.

    Isn't that a pattern we've seen before - that cases never extrapolated endlessly but max out in a local area.

    The countries struggling now are Switzerland, Austria, Portugal and most of Eastern Europe.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Biden is really closing fast in Georgia
  • GIN1138 said:

    I was surprised to see both Ohio and Texas comfortably won by Trump in the end.

    Perhaps the PBers who were predicting knife edge results from the actual returns are not as expert as they thought they were.

    As though Biden was ever going to take Texas lol!
    When he said his policy was to phase out the oil industry....
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    Is Nigel still calling it for Donald? :D
  • Still think that 90% turnout in WI is very suspicious.

    Hopefully one day we can get back to people physically voting in a booth, the system that has worked well for decades. I don't trust postal votes.
  • GIN1138 said:

    I was surprised to see both Ohio and Texas comfortably won by Trump in the end.

    Perhaps the PBers who were predicting knife edge results from the actual returns are not as expert as they thought they were.

    As though Biden was ever going to take Texas lol!
    After Florida, I think Texas is now the thinnest of the Republican holds.
  • GIN1138 said:

    What happens if Trump just says I don't accept the result, its fraud and I'm not leaving the White House?

    If I were Biden, I'd say "fine", move my stuff in, and just lock Donald in the attic like Bertha Mason in Jane Eyre. I'm sure Melania would be fine with it.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    This seems like an excellent result for the GOP. Hold the senate, no threat to scotus, and well placed for 2022 midterms ahead of 2024 after 4 years of a lame duck Biden presidency. Trump may call fraud but I doubt he will find many in the GOP elite backing him on that.
  • Looks like my guess of 275+ is looking quite good

    My prediction of 306 is still on. Where we are now, plus NV, AZ, PA and GA for Biden.
    Also my prediction! Though I'm not 100% sure about GA (or NV)
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    I think someone on here, Alistair? was projecting about a 150K win for Biden in PA. Seems Bidens team are now thinking the same,,,,great minds :)
    https://twitter.com/BresPolitico/status/1324098012172439552
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    kle4 said:

    I see even in deep Red Wyoming 2 counties went for Biden (1 more than for Hilary), and one by 38%. I wonder if that's the fewest counties for one of the parties in any state (given it is very low population state).

    Doubtful. Delaware has only 3 counties.
  • kle4 said:

    I see even in deep Red Wyoming 2 counties went for Biden (1 more than for Hilary), and one by 38%. I wonder if that's the fewest counties for one of the parties in any state (given it is very low population state).

    As things stand it ties with North Dakota for fewest Democrat counties I think, but the Republicans are carrying only 1 county in Vermont, and if 0 counts as a number then 0 in Massachusetts and 0 in Rhode Island.
  • Nevada now expect to report all results today. If Biden gets it, I honestly can’t see a way for Trump to win now (ok, in theory through PA and AZ, but I really don’t think he’ll win either).
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    What happens if Trump just says I don't accept the result, its fraud and I'm not leaving the White House?

    Pence conspires with the cabinet to invoke the 25th and gets to spend a couple of months as President.
    Sedatives, as with Thatcher?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    Scott_xP said:

    Biden's biggest job is Covid.

    He needs to restart anything Trump blocked.

    And Trump supporters who attended superspreader events are going to start to get sick, so just maybe they will understand it

    As soon as Biden takes over America will be going into a national lockdown I'd think? Might allow everything calm down for a couple of months perhaps?
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662

    Not people who think they've won (legitimately...)

    https://twitter.com/maxwalden_/status/1324100924810293249?s=20

    yes but more importantly did the pizzas that were in those boxes before have pineapples on?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320

    Not people who think they've won (legitimately...)

    https://twitter.com/maxwalden_/status/1324100924810293249?s=20

    Pizza boxes? Are they trolling the QAnon brigade?
  • GIN1138 said:

    I was surprised to see both Ohio and Texas comfortably won by Trump in the end.

    Perhaps the PBers who were predicting knife edge results from the actual returns are not as expert as they thought they were.

    As though Biden was ever going to take Texas lol!
    If my memory of the early hours is correct we were told that Trump was only going to win Texas by 1%.

    Now who said it ? Robert someone or other :wink:
  • Nevada now expect to report all results today. If Biden gets it, I honestly can’t see a way for Trump to win now (ok, in theory through PA and AZ, but I really don’t think he’ll win either).

    They don't need to wait anymore now they know that Biden has won anyway.
  • Mal557 said:

    I think someone on here, Alistair? was projecting about a 150K win for Biden in PA. Seems Bidens team are now thinking the same,,,,great minds :)
    https://twitter.com/BresPolitico/status/1324098012172439552

    I said 60K earlier this morning. Looks like Alistair was on the nail. We will see.
This discussion has been closed.