The last 12 hours on the £420m Betfair next President market – politicalbetting.com
The last 12 hours on the £420m Betfair next President market – politicalbetting.com
The Betdata.io chart tells the story of the night as seen on Betfair where there is no outcome yet but punters think that it will go to Trump.
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Just like .. er .. one of them.
Everyone else must still be hung over.
Thanks for the Zoom call, @Barnesian .
Nice crisp, sunny day. Time for some garden.
Jefferson and co must be turning in their graves. I suppose you can say their experiment worked for a couple of hundred years.
Let’s put NC in the Trump column immediately because it’s very very likely he will get a narrow win there.
The other states are harder to read:
GA - looks like it will be a nail biter. There are enough votes out there for Biden to take the victory, but it is going to be very very close.
PA - there are a lot of people suggesting the mail in ballots are going to bridge the gap. I think that looks a wee bit optimistic given the current Trump tally, but let’s charitably say this is a 60/40 percent chance for Trump.
MI - genuinely up in the air from my reading of the situation.
WI - again there is that gap that looks pretty sizeable but Milwaukee has yet to report and is expected to be very sizeable Dem. I think you give the edge to Biden here.
All in all, it’s on a knife edge but I could see Biden doing it. His team appear to be projecting confidence while Trump’s look defensive, if that is any reading of the situation, but it’s difficult to know if that’s from a reading of the campaign team’s view of the situation or whether it’s just projection.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/1114491.stm
"The people have spoken, but it will take a while to determine exactly what they said."
At least for another few hours.
I must admit, the numbers coming out of AP don't look great for Biden. We will see.
Shout out to @Barnesian and the rest of the Zoom crew. Some really useful analysis, a very educational experience all round. Certainly better punditry than CNN!
But if it's just Mail-in ballots to come, then it doesn't matter if it's a Rep or Dem area. Both are likely to close the gap for Biden.
Also - beware of the "% vote reported" stat. I don't think this is anything other than an estimate. It's not like the UK where the first thing they do is count the number of ballot papers and you know the numbers of votes cast, before you know how they were cast.
''State returning officer''
Also the amount of Dem votes in Georgia puts them in with at least 50/50 shout for the senate too?
If there is found to be a degree of fraud within there, intended to favour the Democrats, then that will really hurt them. They will be seen as trying to steal an election. The justification of "But it's to stop Trump!" will not play well.
Reminds of the saying "Never argue with an idiot". They drag you down to their level - and then win with experience.
I thought when doing this I would see that Biden has lots of votes to come in. But actually it doesn't look that way.
It looks like the gap widens in all 3 states? Maybe i've miscalculated somehow...
If Trump wins it's because Americans thought he'd make the better President for them. We need to understand why, and not grab fig leaves.
Davy Crockett also says hi - the reality TV star, before reality TV....
"Here’s a look at what we know about the outstanding vote in each battleground state:
Arizona: While some outlets, such as the Associated Press, have projected Arizona for Biden, ABC News has not. Before the election, officials did warn that any super-close races might not be resolved until the last votes are counted on Thursday or Friday. However, the race isn’t that close right now (Biden 52 percent, Trump 47 percent), so we might see a projection sooner.
Wisconsin: 81 percent of the expected vote is already reporting here, and the rest should trickle in over the next few hours. Earlier tonight, Milwaukee County (expected to be among the last places to finish counting) said to expect semi-final results around 6 a.m. Eastern.
Georgia: The big holdup here is Fulton County, which as of 2 a.m. was home to most of the outstanding ballots. The count there was delayed by a burst pipe (no ballots were damaged), and election officials told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution their goal was to go into Wednesday with just 20,000 ballots left to count. However, the secretary of state estimated those results would not be released until the afternoon.
Michigan: There are still hundreds of thousands of absentee ballots to be counted here, and it’s unclear if counting will continue throughout the night. Election officials did say earlier on Tuesday that they expected counting to wrap up by Wednesday night.
Pennsylvania: Major counties such as Philadelphia and Allegheny have reported their last ballots of the night (although Philadelphia will continue to count around the clock). Going into the election, many county and state election officials predicted that results wouldn’t approach completion until Friday.
North Carolina: 95 percent of the expected vote has already been counted here, so it seems quite possible that all we’re waiting on are late-arriving mail-in ballots, which have until Nov. 12 to arrive. That means we could be waiting over a week for a call here.
Maine: Honestly, this is anyone’s guess. Election officials are taking much longer here than they originally expected."
I take no pleasure in saying this but I did say that I was not convinced by all this talk of Biden landslides and that I feared there were more shy Trump voters than people were allowing for. Anyway, let's see.
One thing we can all agree on: the USA badly needs an Electoral Commission and some clear rules on postal voting and vote counting. The way they do it is all a mess.
Talking of which the role of Chair of the Electoral Commission over here is being advertised, for anyone interested.
Jeez.
However it's also possible that he tipped the conservative to win because he always tips the conservative and wants the conservative to win, and simply dredges up whatever data he can find to support a preconceived outcome.
In the latter case, the surprise isn't HY's forecast, but the conservative win (if indeed that transpires).
As I said a few days back, if you always cheer for Arsenal, and Arsenal wins, you're a fan, not a pundit.
I'm off to listen to music from one A Fältskog for half an hour. Blonde from Abba - 70 and a half last month. Then off for the pre-lockdown bike ride.
https://results.decisiondeskhq.com
It's not like a normal election where mail in ballots are a small proportion, and the outstanding votes are cast on the same basis as those already counted. So you can just work it out by whether areas to come are strong Dem or strong Republican.
Not a great night financially, about £400-500 in the red depending on how the spreads work out. My worst PB election night.
I hope Biden scrapes it, looking at that gurning orange oaf for another four years is not going to be pleasant, but could be worse, at least I am not American. It would be good if he would have to deal with some of his own mess, but I expect he will just run up the deficit and leave the bill for the next POTUS.
Back to the election - the promised red mirage is clearing and we have a new president. Just. Phew.
Time to do a days work now 🙂
Biden might still win of course. He’s only the same price now as Trump was 24 hours ago
https://twitter.com/benwikler/status/1323910181894397952
"When polls show a right winger winning they are robust rigorous and scientific. When the show someone even vaguely left of that who doesn't align with my beliefs then they are wishywashy nonsense that can't be trusted"
It's a solid system.
amrstrong
bedford
cameron
clarion
crawford
erie
fayette
fulton
huntingdon
pike
warren
york
All the above not done any counting yet
Philly - 32% outstanding
Bucks - 25% outstanding
Mongomery - 14% outstanding
More dramatic movements in the middle of the night?
PA just looks out of reach to me. Georgia prob narrowly Trump.
Which means it comes down to Michigan, and if Biden clinches it he probably wins 270 to 268.
Well done to HYUFD and Mr Ed for both sticking to their Trump guns in the face of what was very negative polling for him. My own forecast was that Biden would win but only just so looks like I was also wrong, though I knew the landslide talk was nonsense.
There's certainly a case for a constitutional amendment for this, but, if you're opening that can of worms, the whole political system needs radical reform.
On the whole, I'm very glad we have a Parliamentary system, which isn't perfect but at least allows the possibility of indecisive results leading to a coalition or a new election a few months later. Their Presidential system was set up in reaction to ours, but ironically has worn much worse.
We are however living through a period when conservatives are usually the winners and social democrats usually the losers. So that someone who tends to predict the winner and someone who tends to predict the conservative look the exactly the same.
It applies just as much to the pandemic & is another reason why all the data should be made oublic.
I can cash out now for an absolutely certain £1,600 haircut. Or I can stay in and win nearly £3k if Biden wins, but risk losing £3.4k if Trump wins.
I'm not sure I'll be much less happy with losing £3.4k compared to £1.6k, and even more annoyed if Biden eventually clinches it by a whisker.
What to do..?
Then again, the UK Tories are still holding up in the polls, mostly.
In the US, the tendency for presidents to get their second term appears a pretty strong pull on voters.
He might do those things but you have no evidence for it. Nor do I. Nor do the news channels.
Currently it's roughly 60:40 Biden gets to win but it's very tight.
I got up at 5:20 (thanks to my bladder), checked the TV, groaned and returned to bed.
I don’t think he’s out of this though. I think the consensus on here seems to be forming around a second Trump term but I just don’t think we’ve got the necessary information for that yet.
Although it does look like the voters, at least enough of them in the right places, prefer easy answers to honest answers.