I haven't been on here for a while, last time I did I was grumbling that it had turned into en echo chamber obsessed with unreliable polls.
For a site allegedly full of well informed politicos who like betting its a joke
You could say that to the entire US polling industry.
Yep, and I read on here
"According to the polls"
When will you lot learn?
Polls for all their faults (and a lot of the discussion is about their faults) are pretty much all we have to go on.
Plural vote called several states wrong, but does seem to be onto something by adjusting polls according to Internet search data. He was calling a much closer election than other modelers.
Yes, polls are all you can go on if you live in an echo chamber I agree. Its massive odds on that the majority on this site are white, middle class, middle aged males. That's fine, but it doesn't make for constructive debate. Election after election everybody throws their hands up in amazement.
Why is Trump saying he us going to the Supreme Court over the Election?
To stop mail in ballots, which are presumed to lean heavily Biden, being counted.
Thank you.
Some people are going to lose their shirts over this election. Inhavent geen.on much but have read a fair bit. Everything pointed ir seemed to point to Biden by a long way... I saw Biden on TV in the kast 24vhrs b4 the ciunt and to.me he really looked an old man.
Edit facility screwed again. It should read... b4 the Count
Well guys, time to reflect on how out of touch with the US political map you really are. Unbelievably smug, one-sided and (just like the US left) condescendingly aloft in your virtuous anti-Trumpism. The liberal elite(just like here) are so sure of themselves that any opposing view is dismissed as irrelevant, or denied a platform. The media is turning into a one-sided propaganda driven mouthpiece for the Dems and the wealthy elites are trying to corrupt democracy at every turn. Trump is a bigoted, narcissistic liar and Biden is a withering babbling fool (sound familiar?)- but beyond the character assassinations there is a deeper prejudice which transcends the familiar tropes. If the US was to turn blue their ambition will have been realised and the US and the West would not be the better for it.
I see, and Donald Trump has no connection whatever to wealthy elites. The point about media disconnection is correct, but the rest is partisan stodge.
Seriously disappointing night in the Senate for the Dems too. Not over yet but not looking good. Even if Biden wins he is likely to face a lot of issues getting appointments, especially judicial, through.
The Supreme Court is never going to rule that votes aren't counted.
The only issue they will rule on is whether mail ballots which arrive after Election Day should be valid. And the chances of those votes affecting the result are pretty small.
I haven't been on here for a while, last time I did I was grumbling that it had turned into en echo chamber obsessed with unreliable polls.
For a site allegedly full of well informed politicos who like betting its a joke
You could say that to the entire US polling industry.
Yep, and I read on here
"According to the polls"
When will you lot learn?
Polls for all their faults (and a lot of the discussion is about their faults) are pretty much all we have to go on.
Plural vote called several states wrong, but does seem to be onto something by adjusting polls according to Internet search data. He was calling a much closer election than other modelers.
Yes, polls are all you can go on if you live in an echo chamber I agree. Its massive odds on that the majority on this site are white, middle class, middle aged males. That's fine, but it doesn't make for constructive debate. Election after election everybody throws their hands up in amazement.
Perhaps you should seek another site more to your taste then.
I haven't been on here for a while, last time I did I was grumbling that it had turned into en echo chamber obsessed with unreliable polls.
For a site allegedly full of well informed politicos who like betting its a joke
You could say that to the entire US polling industry.
Yep, and I read on here
"According to the polls"
When will you lot learn?
Polls for all their faults (and a lot of the discussion is about their faults) are pretty much all we have to go on.
Plural vote called several states wrong, but does seem to be onto something by adjusting polls according to Internet search data. He was calling a much closer election than other modelers.
Yes, polls are all you can go on if you live in an echo chamber I agree. Its massive odds on that the majority on this site are white, middle class, middle aged males. That's fine, but it doesn't make for constructive debate. Election after election everybody throws their hands up in amazement.
Perhaps you should seek another site more to your taste then.
Oh I have, I haven't been on here in months. I thought I'd pop in for my own self indulgent confirmation bias.
Carrying on enjoying your comfortable middle class lifestyles, eventually you might get something right.
Polls have been pretty good in most countries recently, the UK included. The US is a clear outlier.
The tricky part is getting a representative sample when the choice is between self selected Internet panels and phone polls that a tiny percent respond to.
I haven't been on here for a while, last time I did I was grumbling that it had turned into en echo chamber obsessed with unreliable polls.
For a site allegedly full of well informed politicos who like betting its a joke
You could say that to the entire US polling industry.
Yep, and I read on here
"According to the polls"
When will you lot learn?
Polls for all their faults (and a lot of the discussion is about their faults) are pretty much all we have to go on.
Plural vote called several states wrong, but does seem to be onto something by adjusting polls according to Internet search data. He was calling a much closer election than other modelers.
Yes, polls are all you can go on if you live in an echo chamber I agree. Its massive odds on that the majority on this site are white, middle class, middle aged males. That's fine, but it doesn't make for constructive debate. Election after election everybody throws their hands up in amazement.
Perhaps you should seek another site more to your taste then.
Oh I have, I haven't been on here in months. I thought I'd pop in for my own self indulgent confirmation bias.
Carrying on enjoying your comfortable middle class lifestyles, eventually you might get something right.
I haven't been on here for a while, last time I did I was grumbling that it had turned into en echo chamber obsessed with unreliable polls.
For a site allegedly full of well informed politicos who like betting its a joke
You could say that to the entire US polling industry.
Yep, and I read on here
"According to the polls"
When will you lot learn?
Polls for all their faults (and a lot of the discussion is about their faults) are pretty much all we have to go on.
Plural vote called several states wrong, but does seem to be onto something by adjusting polls according to Internet search data. He was calling a much closer election than other modelers.
Yes, polls are all you can go on if you live in an echo chamber I agree. Its massive odds on that the majority on this site are white, middle class, middle aged males. That's fine, but it doesn't make for constructive debate. Election after election everybody throws their hands up in amazement.
Perhaps you should seek another site more to your taste then.
and next month youll be virtue signalling the need for more variety on the site
Polls have been pretty good in most countries recently, the UK included. The US is a clear outlier.
Though Trafalgar again pretty close in the South and Midwest and Pennsylvania, if out in the West and Rasmussen pretty close in terms of the national popular vote as they were in 2016. Indeed Rasmussen has now forecast every presidential election almost spot on at the national level since 2000 with the exception of 2012
The Supreme Court is never going to rule that votes aren't counted.
The only issue they will rule on is whether mail ballots which arrive after Election Day should be valid. And the chances of those votes affecting the result are pretty small.
If it's tight I'm sure they'll also have a torrent of challenges about which signatures match and so forth.
Seriously disappointing night in the Senate for the Dems too. Not over yet but not looking good. Even if Biden wins he is likely to face a lot of issues getting appointments, especially judicial, through.
Without the trifecta it's as good as a loss.
There is no chance of packing the Supreme Court, now. It has a 6-3 conservative majority for a long time to come. That said, conservative judges often become less conservative over time.
Well guys, time to reflect on how out of touch with the US political map you really are. Unbelievably smug, one-sided and (just like the US left) condescendingly aloft in your virtuous anti-Trumpism. The liberal elite(just like here) are so sure of themselves that any opposing view is dismissed as irrelevant, or denied a platform. The media is turning into a one-sided propaganda driven mouthpiece for the Dems and the wealthy elites are trying to corrupt democracy at every turn. Trump is a bigoted, narcissistic liar and Biden is a withering babbling fool (sound familiar?)- but beyond the character assassinations there is a deeper prejudice which transcends the familiar tropes. If the US was to turn blue their ambition will have been realised and the US and the West would not be the better for it.
Everything you have said is true - including that Trump IS a bigoted narcissistic liar. And if thats what America wants to represent them thats fine. Despite what Trump is trying to do America is still just about a functioning democracy and if thats their choice then fine. Why would we be surprised? People prioritise the rights of armed lunatics over the children then slaughter in their classrooms. And if thats their choice thats fine. It doesn't mean that the rest of the world has to give them any respect.
Whether Biden wins or not, the Sanders camp is going to be resurgent amongst the Democrats, as this was exactly the scenario many of their most senior staffers predicted with a Biden campaign. They may have produced a very similar result for different reasons, but the rhetorical point will be made nonetheless.
If Sanders was the nominee not Biden I expect Trump would already have won the EC now and the popular vote too.
If Trump is re elected I would expect AOC though to take over the Sanders torch and run in 2024 maybe against a younger moderate such as Buttigieg for the Democratic nomination
I haven't been on here for a while, last time I did I was grumbling that it had turned into en echo chamber obsessed with unreliable polls.
For a site allegedly full of well informed politicos who like betting its a joke
You could say that to the entire US polling industry.
Yep, and I read on here
"According to the polls"
When will you lot learn?
Polls for all their faults (and a lot of the discussion is about their faults) are pretty much all we have to go on.
Plural vote called several states wrong, but does seem to be onto something by adjusting polls according to Internet search data. He was calling a much closer election than other modelers.
Yes, polls are all you can go on if you live in an echo chamber I agree. Its massive odds on that the majority on this site are white, middle class, middle aged males. That's fine, but it doesn't make for constructive debate. Election after election everybody throws their hands up in amazement.
Perhaps you should seek another site more to your taste then.
Oh I have, I haven't been on here in months. I thought I'd pop in for my own self indulgent confirmation bias.
Carrying on enjoying your comfortable middle class lifestyles, eventually you might get something right.
I haven't been on here for a while, last time I did I was grumbling that it had turned into en echo chamber obsessed with unreliable polls.
For a site allegedly full of well informed politicos who like betting its a joke
You could say that to the entire US polling industry.
Yep, and I read on here
"According to the polls"
When will you lot learn?
Polls for all their faults (and a lot of the discussion is about their faults) are pretty much all we have to go on.
Plural vote called several states wrong, but does seem to be onto something by adjusting polls according to Internet search data. He was calling a much closer election than other modelers.
Yes, polls are all you can go on if you live in an echo chamber I agree. Its massive odds on that the majority on this site are white, middle class, middle aged males. That's fine, but it doesn't make for constructive debate. Election after election everybody throws their hands up in amazement.
Whilst it's a fair challenge, the data most of us have been working from is the US polls.
Well guys, time to reflect on how out of touch with the US political map you really are. Unbelievably smug, one-sided and (just like the US left) condescendingly aloft in your virtuous anti-Trumpism. The liberal elite(just like here) are so sure of themselves that any opposing view is dismissed as irrelevant, or denied a platform. The media is turning into a one-sided propaganda driven mouthpiece for the Dems and the wealthy elites are trying to corrupt democracy at every turn. Trump is a bigoted, narcissistic liar and Biden is a withering babbling fool (sound familiar?)- but beyond the character assassinations there is a deeper prejudice which transcends the familiar tropes. If the US was to turn blue their ambition will have been realised and the US and the West would not be the better for it.
Everything you have said is true - including that Trump IS a bigoted narcissistic liar. And if thats what America wants to represent them thats fine. Despite what Trump is trying to do America is still just about a functioning democracy and if thats their choice then fine. Why would we be surprised? People prioritise the rights of armed lunatics over the children then slaughter in their classrooms. And if thats their choice thats fine. It doesn't mean that the rest of the world has to give them any respect.
Trump does not represent the little people against the elites. He represents one branch of the elite, with the help of his own grassroots, against another, who in turn have their own periodic coalition with a grassroots.
Seriously disappointing night in the Senate for the Dems too. Not over yet but not looking good. Even if Biden wins he is likely to face a lot of issues getting appointments, especially judicial, through.
Without the trifecta it's as good as a loss.
There is no chance of packing the Supreme Court, now. It has a 6-3 conservative majority for a long time to come. That said, conservative judges often become less conservative over time.
Ironically I think that reduces the court's motivation to put their thumbs on the scale for Trump. They can rule against him, rid the conservative side of a loose canon, let everyone congratulate them on how high-minded and non-partisan they are, then gently dismantle any liberal legislation they don't like.
Trump should hold these states we are waiting on which means he gets re-elected. If there is a late blue swing as they get into these mail in ballots the narrative is already there - these votes were issued fraudulently, they are false, they are trying to steal the election. We'll have riots before the end of the day.
I haven't been on here for a while, last time I did I was grumbling that it had turned into en echo chamber obsessed with unreliable polls.
For a site allegedly full of well informed politicos who like betting its a joke
You could say that to the entire US polling industry.
Yep, and I read on here
"According to the polls"
When will you lot learn?
Polls for all their faults (and a lot of the discussion is about their faults) are pretty much all we have to go on.
Plural vote called several states wrong, but does seem to be onto something by adjusting polls according to Internet search data. He was calling a much closer election than other modelers.
Yes, polls are all you can go on if you live in an echo chamber I agree. Its massive odds on that the majority on this site are white, middle class, middle aged males. That's fine, but it doesn't make for constructive debate. Election after election everybody throws their hands up in amazement.
Perhaps you should seek another site more to your taste then.
Polls have been pretty good in most countries recently, the UK included. The US is a clear outlier.
Though Trafalgar again pretty close in the South and Midwest and Pennsylvania, if out in the West and Rasmussen pretty close in terms of the national popular vote as they were in 2016. Indeed Rasmussen has now forecast every presidential election almost spot on at the national level since 2000 with the exception of 2012
Trafalgar might be close, but they are one guy and not a polling organisation. I suspect he has extrapolated polling data from elsewhere to draw his conclusions. So an astute political analyst rather than a pollster.
By this stage we already would have had a winner declared in the EC in every Presidential election since World War 2 except 2004 and 2000 and 1960. Trump was declared winner in the EC by 7am UK time after polling day 4 years ago.
If there is no winner declared by the end of today that will be longer than in 2004 too as Kerry conceded on the day after polling when Bush was declared to have won Ohio and it would also be longer than 1960 when Nixon conceded and Kennedy was declared the winner by the end of the following day.
In which case we would be into 2000 Bush v Gore territory again and lawsuits and the SC potentially
FL continues its march rightward by roughly 1-2% each election since 2008 - Trump is going to win by about 3.5%. It may not even be considered a swing state next time round.
So, last night a few people were saying it's all over in Georgia. ABC said the opposite because of the precincts still to report and now the needle has tipped to Biden.
Whether Biden wins or not, the Sanders camp is going to be resurgent amongst the Democrats, as this was exactly the scenario many of their most senior staffers predicted with a Biden campaign. They may have produced a very similar result for different reasons, but the rhetorical point will be made nonetheless.
If Sanders was the nominee not Biden I expect Trump would already have won the EC now and the popular vote too.
If Trump is re elected I would expect AOC though to take over the Sanders torch and run in 2024 maybe against a younger moderate such as Buttigieg for the Democratic nomination
I'm not sure I agree here. Biden seems to have suffered from a combination of high tolerance but low enthusiasm for his candidacy, and shy but persistent enthusiasm for Trump, and this is the combination the Sanders campaign team were predicting back in January. Sanders could rely on a huge grassroots effort, and polls had him leading Trump in a number of key blue-collar areas - and even in the symbolically unlikely seat you raised of Utah, so I think the result would have been very close once again.
The last point I think is key, because Sanders' emphasis was somewhat different to the Squad's - he won and sought a lot of minority support, but there was a much more explicit crosscultural blue-collar emphasis. I think either candidate would have resulted in a close election, such are America's splits.
Looking at the figures for Philadelphia's Mail in Ballot that has been reported 78/24 for Biden then it is actually conceivable that Biden can do it in Penn given the 1.5 million outstanding ballots.
The problem for Biden is that a lot of small (and not so small) red counties have not counted _any_ mail ballots yet.
For instance Cumberland has 59.000 ballots to count and 0 counted yet so we don't have an idea of Biden's mail in vote performance in the deep red parts of the state
Why is Trump saying he us going to the Supreme Court over the Election?
I like the text on CNN. “Trump says he’ll go to Supreme Court: unclear why”.
CNN annoyed me this morning
Trump said “I am winning in WI” [I think but the state doesn’t matter]
CNN: that’s a lie. Not all the votes have been counted so you haven’t won WI
There’s a difference between “winning” and “won” guys
Whilst Trump is being provocative I thought CNN were dire last night. They couldn't get any handle on the huge significance between early votes counted and on the day ones so their comments about 'impressive lead' here or there bore no relation to the final outcomes. Terrible.
I switched to ABC and NBC who were far better. ABC spotted the Georgia issue, which is now leaning slightly in Biden's favour.
Democratic elections should not be determined in courtrooms.
The only thing I'm seeing in this election is the need to change any laws that allow late counting of postal votes to change to only allowing postals votes received by polling day.
And yes I know that the distances involved mean you can't do next day delivery like you can in the UK but you really do want the election result determined on the night.
Whether Biden wins or not, the Sanders camp is going to be resurgent amongst the Democrats, as this was exactly the scenario many of their most senior staffers predicted with a Biden campaign. They may have produced a very similar result for different reasons, but the rhetorical point will be made nonetheless.
If Sanders was the nominee not Biden I expect Trump would already have won the EC now and the popular vote too.
If Trump is re elected I would expect AOC though to take over the Sanders torch and run in 2024 maybe against a younger moderate such as Buttigieg for the Democratic nomination
I'm not sure I agree here. Biden seems to have suffered from a combination of high tolerance but low enthusiasm for his candidacy, and shy but persistent enthusiasm for Trump, and this is the combination the Sanders campaign team were predicting back in January. Sanders could rely on a huge grassroots effort, and polls had him leading Trump in a number of key blue-collar areas, and even in the symbolically unlikely seat you raised of Utah, so I think the result would have been very close once again.
The last point I think is key, because Sanders' emphasis was somewhat different to the Squad's - he won and sought a lot of minority support, but there was a much more explicit cross-cultural blue-collar emphasis.
I think Trump would have won Arizona against Sanders and maybe Virginia too though Sanders might have done a bit better than Biden is doing in Michigan, Sanders also had broader reach than the likes of AOC I agree
Seriously disappointing night in the Senate for the Dems too. Not over yet but not looking good. Even if Biden wins he is likely to face a lot of issues getting appointments, especially judicial, through.
Without the trifecta it's as good as a loss.
There is no chance of packing the Supreme Court, now. It has a 6-3 conservative majority for a long time to come. That said, conservative judges often become less conservative over time.
Also, it doesn't mean they're in the business of fixing elections.
If there isn't a legal reason to invalidate the election results then they won't rule there is one.
Hmm. I’m feeling slightly more nervous for Biden now. Those PA and WI deficits look tough. I think we are back to 50/50 in my mind. Winning GA would help.
Why is Trump saying he us going to the Supreme Court over the Election?
I like the text on CNN. “Trump says he’ll go to Supreme Court: unclear why”.
CNN annoyed me this morning
Trump said “I am winning in WI” [I think but the state doesn’t matter]
CNN: that’s a lie. Not all the votes have been counted so you haven’t won WI
There’s a difference between “winning” and “won” guys
Whilst Trump is being provocative I thought CNN were dire last night. They couldn't get any handle on the huge significance between early votes counted and on the day ones so their comments about 'impressive lead' here or there bore no relation to the final outcomes. Terrible.
I switched to ABC and NBC who were far better. ABC spotted the Georgia issue, which is now leaning slightly in Biden's favour.
Yup, absolutely atrocious. Weirdly both the partisan channels are way better at this - I couldn't get over the Fox geofence so I switched to MSNBC, which was also pretty good at figuring out what was going on.
It’s worth noting that Biden is set to win the popular vote by a wider margin than Clinton did in 2016. So, we can place the American people next to pollsters and liberal elites in that list of losers if Trump does win.
Seriously disappointing night in the Senate for the Dems too. Not over yet but not looking good. Even if Biden wins he is likely to face a lot of issues getting appointments, especially judicial, through.
Without the trifecta it's as good as a loss.
There is no chance of packing the Supreme Court, now. It has a 6-3 conservative majority for a long time to come. That said, conservative judges often become less conservative over time.
Also, it doesn't mean they're in the business of fixing elections.
If there isn't a legal reason to invalidate the election results then they won't rule there is one.
US Justices aren't impartial. If its a 6/3 or 5/4 decision then that doesn't mean there was a legal reason to do so.
Tonight has really shown how the Internet, and even the 24-hour news cycle, is killing democracy. Without instant, constant, reporting (yesterdays obsessive refreshing of the Florida vote totals was laughable) we would just wait for the damn final results. I woke up at 3.30 this AM and all I saw on here was that Biden was toast. Clearly so did eveyone else and, as a result of that clear misapprehension (he may yet lose but he ain't toast yet), we had the unedifying spectacle an hour or so ago of Trump claiming victory already and pleading for money to help him litigate. He was able to use the misreporting of early vote totals to support him and now we have the court of Twitter deciding the election.
I said before that Trump would eke out a small EC victory but lose the popular vote and I still think that will happen. But unlike most people on here I am now actually less sure about it than I was last night. This is because (1) the Minnesota polls were within 1% of the 538 average, boding well for Biden in Wis (where I don't think a 4% lead is big enough for Trump with absentees and much of Milwakee yet to report) and MI (less sure about that), (2) there are a huge number of votes in heavily Democratic counties in GA to count - in fact I agree with the NYT that Biden is a slight favourite there and (3) does anyone actually realise how big Philadelphia actually is?
Why is Trump saying he us going to the Supreme Court over the Election?
I like the text on CNN. “Trump says he’ll go to Supreme Court: unclear why”.
CNN annoyed me this morning
Trump said “I am winning in WI” [I think but the state doesn’t matter]
CNN: that’s a lie. Not all the votes have been counted so you haven’t won WI
There’s a difference between “winning” and “won” guys
Whilst Trump is being provocative I thought CNN were dire last night. They couldn't get any handle on the huge significance between early votes counted and on the day ones so their comments about 'impressive lead' here or there bore no relation to the final outcomes. Terrible.
I switched to ABC and NBC who were far better. ABC spotted the Georgia issue, which is now leaning slightly in Biden's favour.
Yup, absolutely atrocious. Weirdly both the partisan channels are way better at this - I couldn't get over the Fox geofence so I switched to MSNBC, which was also pretty good at figuring out what was going on.
I'm pleasantly surprised by Fox - they are covering both sides of the debate in a reasonably balanced way
Hmm. I’m feeling slightly more nervous for Biden now. Those PA and WI deficits look tough. I think we are back to 50/50 in my mind. Winning GA would help.
Relax on PA. They haven't even begun counting votes cast by mail.
It is very frustrating when someone who doesn't have a clue what they are talking about keeps getting it right (not sure if I am joking or not)
Only if you look at a limited set of elections: the 2 Trump results and 3 in the UK, but there is a big world out there. Also it would be interesting to use 2017 record to distinguish skill and wishful thinking (call this David Herdson points).
You (or the teams behind the screen in nerdville) look at the counties with significant numbers of votes outstanding and extrapolate based on the full county result last time and any observable swing, then add these as a projection to the totals already counted.
A movement to clear out the shite in the Democrat Party.
Strategies to include:
1) Not looking down on the working class 2) Not taking non-white voters for granted 3) Realising that the retirement age need to apply to politicians as well
Democratic elections should not be determined in courtrooms.
The only thing I'm seeing in this election is the need to change any laws that allow late counting of postal votes to change to only allowing postals votes received by polling day.
And yes I know that the distances involved mean you can't do next day delivery like you can in the UK but you really do want the election result determined on the night.
The problem with that is that it creates a DoS vector in the form of attacking the mail delivery system, which there's some evidence may have been exploited here.
I don't think the late votes are a problem, the numbers are pretty small so it won't generally affect projections, and if it's a squeaker then they'll be spending time recounting the ones they've already got, so it'll be a week or so before you have a definitive result in any case. The main reason we don't have answers today on the rust belt is because the legislature wouldn't let them start counting until election day.
"They knew they couldn't win. So they said, 'let's go to court' (...) We want the law to be used in a proper manner, so we’ll be going to the US Supreme Court. We want all voting to stop. We don’t want them finding any ballots at four in the morning and adding them to the list." Meanwhjle he talks about a conspiracy to "disenfranchise" his own voters.
He's not confident, is he? He's stronger in electoral politics when he's the underdog. The opposite was true in his wrestling-TV persona. This is related to the fact that supporters in the political arena have to do something active rather than merely applaud, feel exhilarated, and watch adverts in a positive frame of mind.
Most of the news reports I'm reading are confusing "holds" with "wins". Trump didn't "win" Texas. He held that state, which in 2016 he won by his 9th or 10th smallest margin (counting NE-2 as a half). The 2% swing against him there in 2020 was insufficient to overturn his 9% majority.
Did we really just have 4 years of the Democrats saying it would pretty easy to get rid of Trump as soon as the election happened? What a waste of time that was.
Comments
But, just trying to understand what the precinct reporting figure means in Philly. There could be a bunch on on the day votes there too.
The only issue they will rule on is whether mail ballots which arrive after Election Day should be valid. And the chances of those votes affecting the result are pretty small.
After all, the decisive states, the ones either side of 270, are the ones where we know least.
So we wait.
And hope.
Carrying on enjoying your comfortable middle class lifestyles, eventually you might get something right.
Arizona!
rolls eyes
If Trump is re elected I would expect AOC though to take over the Sanders torch and run in 2024 maybe against a younger moderate such as Buttigieg for the Democratic nomination
Not that this gives me any pleasure.
Democratic elections should not be determined in courtrooms.
God Bless Gilead.
Trump said “I am winning in WI” [I think but the state doesn’t matter]
CNN: that’s a lie. Not all the votes have been counted so you haven’t won WI
There’s a difference between “winning” and “won” guys
I've woken up and now I'm just confused.
Just about stagger over the line? Possibly? Maybe? LOL!
If there is no winner declared by the end of today that will be longer than in 2004 too as Kerry conceded on the day after polling when Bush was declared to have won Ohio and it would also be longer than 1960 when Nixon conceded and Kennedy was declared the winner by the end of the following day.
In which case we would be into 2000 Bush v Gore territory again and lawsuits and the SC potentially
You would be correct to say “not counting VALIDLY CAST votes is not an acceptable position in a democracy”
The last point I think is key, because Sanders' emphasis was somewhat different to the Squad's - he won and sought a lot of minority support, but there was a much more explicit crosscultural blue-collar emphasis. I think either candidate would have resulted in a close election, such are America's splits.
But as to what happens, no.
The problem for Biden is that a lot of small (and not so small) red counties have not counted _any_ mail ballots yet.
For instance Cumberland has 59.000 ballots to count and 0 counted yet so we don't have an idea of Biden's mail in vote performance in the deep red parts of the state
I switched to ABC and NBC who were far better. ABC spotted the Georgia issue, which is now leaning slightly in Biden's favour.
And yes I know that the distances involved mean you can't do next day delivery like you can in the UK but you really do want the election result determined on the night.
And the popular vote.
In fact, the polls might not even be wrong.
Why on earth did they not do their needle for all states!?
Or at least the crucial mid-West states.
If there isn't a legal reason to invalidate the election results then they won't rule there is one.
CNN who were abysmal
And the NYT needles which are in the wrong states, although as it happens Biden may take Georgia.
"Can't you see I'm trying to think of one?"
I said before that Trump would eke out a small EC victory but lose the popular vote and I still think that will happen. But unlike most people on here I am now actually less sure about it than I was last night. This is because (1) the Minnesota polls were within 1% of the 538 average, boding well for Biden in Wis (where I don't think a 4% lead is big enough for Trump with absentees and much of Milwakee yet to report) and MI (less sure about that), (2) there are a huge number of votes in heavily Democratic counties in GA to count - in fact I agree with the NYT that Biden is a slight favourite there and (3) does anyone actually realise how big Philadelphia actually is?
ABC was better I thought.
The Truman Project
A movement to clear out the shite in the Democrat Party.
Strategies to include:
1) Not looking down on the working class
2) Not taking non-white voters for granted
3) Realising that the retirement age need to apply to politicians as well
I don't think the late votes are a problem, the numbers are pretty small so it won't generally affect projections, and if it's a squeaker then they'll be spending time recounting the ones they've already got, so it'll be a week or so before you have a definitive result in any case. The main reason we don't have answers today on the rust belt is because the legislature wouldn't let them start counting until election day.
"They knew they couldn't win. So they said, 'let's go to court' (...) We want the law to be used in a proper manner, so we’ll be going to the US Supreme Court. We want all voting to stop. We don’t want them finding any ballots at four in the morning and adding them to the list." Meanwhjle he talks about a conspiracy to "disenfranchise" his own voters.
He's not confident, is he? He's stronger in electoral politics when he's the underdog. The opposite was true in his wrestling-TV persona. This is related to the fact that supporters in the political arena have to do something active rather than merely applaud, feel exhilarated, and watch adverts in a positive frame of mind.
Most of the news reports I'm reading are confusing "holds" with "wins". Trump didn't "win" Texas. He held that state, which in 2016 he won by his 9th or 10th smallest margin (counting NE-2 as a half). The 2% swing against him there in 2020 was insufficient to overturn his 9% majority.
Also bodes well for Biden.
And is it connected to the delays in yesterday's update ?