I really didn't expect to see things being so close. Biden 2.5 on Betfair currently.
Makes me feel less moronic about hedging my bets earlier (long time ago).
I've a total of less than £100 staked on what's now an all-green result. There's definitely huge money to be made, but a combination of a new job and the known unknowns of close races, postal ballots, recounts and court challenges has made me stay away from most of the US markets.
For every big winner here, there's going to be a lot of big losers. One thing that's clear, is that again the pollsters screwed up.
The main betting market still seems pretty confident that the big prize will be Trump's. In Betfair's massive "Next President" market, Trump's odds are 1.69 while Biden's are 2.46. In old-fashioned bookie's odds those equate to roughly 0.7/1 and 6/4 respectively ... quite a difference however you look at it. Mind you, a good result for one or other from the remaining states could dramatically change these odds. Personally, given the various pathways to reach 270 ECVs, I reckon Biden's odds represent cracking value and I've dived in!
Ah yes, I remember the old fashioned bookies of yesteryear chalking up 0.7/1 the jolly on their blackboards!
The main betting market still seems pretty confident that the big prize will be Trump's. In Betfair's massive "Next President" market, Trump's odds are 1.69 while Biden's are 2.46. In old-fashioned bookie's odds those equate to roughly 0.7/1 and 6/4 respectively ... quite a difference however you look at it. Mind you, a good result for one or other from the remaining states could dramatically change these odds. Personally, given the various pathways to reach 270 ECVs, I reckon Biden's odds represent cracking value and I've dived in!
Very much so. GA looking good and then he only needs one of PA MI and WI.
I personally suspect he has just eked it. But crikey another slightly wonky election for the majority of pollsters.
In the context of that map, this comment from the Des Moines Republican Chair is interesting: “ It didn’t impress Iowans to have someone from the east coast and the west coast on the ticket, That’s not how you endear yourself to the midwest,” he said.
I really didn't expect to see things being so close. Biden 2.5 on Betfair currently.
Makes me feel less moronic about hedging my bets earlier (long time ago).
I've a total of less than £100 staked on what's now an all-green result. There's definitely huge money to be made, but a combination of a new job and the known unknowns of close races, postal ballots, recounts and court challenges has made me stay away from most of the US markets.
For every big winner here, there's going to be a lot of big losers. One thing that's clear, is that again the pollsters screwed up.
Biden will be five points clear on the national vote share (I reckon) against 8% in the poll of polls. His problem was that he managed to get very close but no cigar in a bunch of states.
Jesus f*cking Christ, I suspected it would be close, but this is the death of an industry. How on Earth did pollsters get it so wrong?
They didn't! Trafalgar Group appears to have come close, perhaps very close yet again, depending on the outstanding results from the remaining counts.
I wouldn't really call them a polling company as they refuse to disclose their methodology and admit they essentially alter results based on hunches. I mean, as you say they came close, but surely that only emphasises the point that real polling companies have humiliated themselves and revealed they can't accurate map public opinion in the US.
I'm suddenly reminded of about 5am on election night 2000, when the BBC was talking about why Gore's victory had been inevitable al along, and how George Bush had "always been a weak candidate".
I really didn't expect to see things being so close. Biden 2.5 on Betfair currently.
Makes me feel less moronic about hedging my bets earlier (long time ago).
I've a total of less than £100 staked on what's now an all-green result. There's definitely huge money to be made, but a combination of a new job and the known unknowns of close races, postal ballots, recounts and court challenges has made me stay away from most of the US markets.
For every big winner here, there's going to be a lot of big losers. One thing that's clear, is that again the pollsters screwed up.
Biden will be five points clear on the national vote share (I reckon) against 8% in the poll of polls. His problem was that he managed to get very close but no cigar in a bunch of states.
Same as, possibly even more so, than Hillary four years ago.
In the context of that map, this comment from the Des Moines Republican Chair is interesting: “ It didn’t impress Iowans to have someone from the east coast and the west coast on the ticket, That’s not how you endear yourself to the midwest,” he said.
I said they should have picked Sherrod Brown
A VP from the mid West might have made the difference
Did pollsters ask the ‘personality’ question? I can find ‘energetic’ which Trump led by quite a distance, not sure if that is an acceptable substitute.
Whether Biden wins or not, the Sanders camp is going to be resurgent amongst the Democrats, as this was exactly the scenario many of their most senior staffers predicted with a Biden campaign. They may have produced a very similar result for different reasons, but the rhetorical point will be made nonetheless.
Morning! So as it was looking Biden will comfortably win the vote but Trump is heading to win the EC. Glad to see that the President is going to go to the Supreme Court to protect democracy by having them stop counting votes.
Only the military could get Trump out of the White House. And that won’t happen. The US is completely screwed. Markets will be a bloodbath. That will have severe consequences for all of us.
I'm a bit bemused by the apparent assumption that Trump has won again. Are people falling into the trap of being misled by election day votes in the Midwest? Per Nate Silver, Minnesota appears close to expectations. If anything like that is true for Michigan and Wisconsin, then (given that Biden has taken Nebraska 2nd district) we are back to Trump needing all six states in contention. He seems to have won three, but Arizona has been called by one network for Biden.
I haven't been on here for a while, last time I did I was grumbling that it had turned into en echo chamber obsessed with unreliable polls.
For a site allegedly full of well informed politicos who like betting its a joke
You could say that to the entire US polling industry.
Yep, and I read on here
"According to the polls"
When will you lot learn?
Polls for all their faults (and a lot of the discussion is about their faults) are pretty much all we have to go on.
Plural vote called several states wrong, but does seem to be onto something by adjusting polls according to Internet search data. He was calling a much closer election than other modelers.
Seriously disappointing night in the Senate for the Dems too. Not over yet but not looking good. Even if Biden wins he is likely to face a lot of issues getting appointments, especially judicial, through.
Why is Trump saying he us going to the Supreme Court over the Election?
To stop mail in ballots, which are presumed to lean heavily Biden, being counted.
Thank you.
Some people are going to lose their shirts over this election. Inhavent geen.on much but have read a fair bit. Everything pointed ir seemed to point to Biden by a long way... I saw Biden on TV in the kast 24vhrs b4 the ciunt and to.me he really looked an old man.
Well guys, time to reflect on how out of touch with the US political map you really are. Unbelievably smug, one-sided and (just like the US left) condescendingly aloft in your virtuous anti-Trumpism. The liberal elite(just like here) are so sure of themselves that any opposing view is dismissed as irrelevant, or denied a platform. The media is turning into a one-sided propaganda driven mouthpiece for the Dems and the wealthy elites are trying to corrupt democracy at every turn. Trump is a bigoted, narcissistic liar and Biden is a withering babbling fool (sound familiar?)- but beyond the character assassinations there is a deeper prejudice which transcends the familiar tropes. If the US was to turn blue their ambition will have been realised and the US and the West would not be the better for it.
Well guys, time to reflect on how out of touch with the US political map you really are. Unbelievably smug, one-sided and (just like the US left) condescendingly aloft in your virtuous anti-Trumpism. The liberal elite(just like here) are so sure of themselves that any opposing view is dismissed as irrelevant, or denied a platform. The media is turning into a one-sided propaganda driven mouthpiece for the Dems and the wealthy elites are trying to corrupt democracy at every turn. Trump is a bigoted, narcissistic liar and Biden is a withering babbling fool (sound familiar?)- but beyond the character assassinations there is a deeper prejudice which transcends the familiar tropes. If the US was to turn blue their ambition will have been realised and the US and the West would not be the better for it.
Comments
For every big winner here, there's going to be a lot of big losers. One thing that's clear, is that again the pollsters screwed up.
I personally suspect he has just eked it. But crikey another slightly wonky election for the majority of pollsters.
Who’dve thunk it
Not sure why.
If the former, pile on Trump. If the latter, Biden is a bargain.
Why hasn't it been called for Trump?
Glad I went to bed about 2, this is going to take a while.
foureight more years.https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1323871035251449859?s=19
https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1323871982996332546?s=19
https://twitter.com/mattbruenig/status/1323825846365396992?s=21
Says he thinks they are on "the road to victory".
It's morning in
GileadAmericaFor a site allegedly full of well informed politicos who like betting its a joke
It's amazingly close but I think Biden will squeak it. His argument for the win will be strengthened by the popular vote win.
But a lot closer than I was expecting.
"According to the polls"
When will you lot learn?
I'm a bit bemused by the apparent assumption that Trump has won again. Are people falling into the trap of being misled by election day votes in the Midwest? Per Nate Silver, Minnesota appears close to expectations. If anything like that is true for Michigan and Wisconsin, then (given that Biden has taken Nebraska 2nd district) we are back to Trump needing all six states in contention. He seems to have won three, but Arizona has been called by one network for Biden.
Is my reasoning wrong?
Then make it 10 times more convoluted with added anger
If Hillary being a woman was the issue why is it only white men and not other men that it has changed with?
And it's entirely possible Biden wins without PA.
Plural vote called several states wrong, but does seem to be onto something by adjusting polls according to Internet search data. He was calling a much closer election than other modelers.
http://www.pluralvote.com
Some people are going to lose their shirts over this election. Inhavent geen.on much but have read a fair bit. Everything pointed ir seemed to point to Biden by a long way... I saw Biden on TV in the kast 24vhrs b4 the ciunt and to.me he really looked an old man.
The liberal elite(just like here) are so sure of themselves that any opposing view is dismissed as irrelevant, or denied a platform. The media is turning into a one-sided propaganda driven mouthpiece for the Dems and the wealthy elites are trying to corrupt democracy at every turn.
Trump is a bigoted, narcissistic liar and Biden is a withering babbling fool (sound familiar?)- but beyond the character assassinations there is a deeper prejudice which transcends the familiar tropes.
If the US was to turn blue their ambition will have been realised and the US and the West would not be the better for it.