Ready for the egg to hit my face, but right now I see Biden taking MN, WI and MI. Trump gets NC, GA, IA.
Puts Biden over 270 even without PA (genuine tossup).
Persuade me otherwise?
Trump looks to be outperforming in some counties in Ohio and Pennsylvania that would be correlated with WI and MI, so it might be tough for Biden to win both of them.
Do we have a rough vote share estimate for Ohio overall?
I thought Biden had blown it without winning PA. And maybe that will be the still be the case. But he’s back to roughly Evens in PA and could win even without PA.
Biden 2.14-2.16 to be President. It’s the Hope that kills you.
AZ is big - because Biden now only needs two of PA/MI/WI - unless he just got MI/WI and neither Congressional district.
However it looks like Biden is in trouble in Nevada, meaning he does need all 3 in Midwest, where Pen isn’t looking so good either?
I concede this isn’t 350 ev to Biden. ☹️ This is no landslide.
Is it my fault, or A rated pollsters who didn’t just show leads, but consistently, poll after poll?
Not just some surprisingly big PV polls, but state polls, senate race polls that back up the other polls.
Now if Stalin was in charge of this polling industry, what do you think will happen?
I’ll add one other thing. Both teams knew, even though the rest of us didn’t, they all camped out in the Midwest for the last days of the campaign.
I don't think we have enough data to judge the polls yet. FL seems to have been pretty bad but it's a weird state, GA and NC seems like a pretty small miss, TX and AZ look like they were pretty good, and we know almost nothing about the midwest or the popular vote.
It wasn't a secret that the midwest was the easiest path and FL/NC/GA/TX were insurance/dessert. (Although that may turn out out not to be true, we don't know much about the midwest yet...)
No dessert in the desert today. Chilli off the menu just chills in the Biden household. The results are in from Ohio where Biden has underperformed like he has all over the map.
You can’t defend the respectable pollsters in Florida, when out of 30 polls in last three months Trump only led in 1 of them.
Ready for the egg to hit my face, but right now I see Biden taking MN, WI and MI. Trump gets NC, GA, IA.
Puts Biden over 270 even without PA (genuine tossup).
Persuade me otherwise?
Trump looks to be outperforming in some counties in Ohio and Pennsylvania that would be correlated with WI and MI, so it might be tough for Biden to win both of them.
Do we have a rough vote share estimate for Ohio overall?
Not really. Trump leads 8% now, same as 2016, but apparently some absentee ballots are to be counted and some urban vote yet to come in.
Ready for the egg to hit my face, but right now I see Biden taking MN, WI and MI. Trump gets NC, GA, IA.
Puts Biden over 270 even without PA (genuine tossup).
Persuade me otherwise?
Trump looks to be outperforming in some counties in Ohio and Pennsylvania that would be correlated with WI and MI, so it might be tough for Biden to win both of them.
Do we have a rough vote share estimate for Ohio overall?
Not really. Trump leads 8% now, same as 2016, but apparently some absentee ballots are to be counted and some urban vote yet to come in.
Yes. In an omen for what may come in the Midwest, Trump appears to have done better this time in Ohio than last time. According to sky news.
Fox presented very doubting, Fox Decision Desk people say they are still very confident. Who knows, tbh. The Decision Desk people at Fox have a great track record, but they aren't infallible.
Biden winning Georgia would be close to game over.
Yes, unless there is a regional swing we haven't seen yet in Midwest white voters. Even Georgia being within 1% either way would, all else being equal, suggests Biden is favourite in the Midwest.
If anything the Midwest is swinging to Trump not away from him. The democratic campaign shouldn’t be bewildered at this historic loss today, it was the economy. They didn’t fight hard enough on the economy. Lulled into a false sense of coasting by the polls, they didn’t meet a fierce campaigner toe to toe on who is best for the economy, jobs, growth.
The one good thing about being a pessimist is that you can never be disappointed. Having never expected Trump to lose I don’t have that terrible sinking feeling many others must be experiencing now. But a bigger Biden popular vote win than Clinton got, but Trump staying in the White House is going to put the US in an even darker place, while empowering the populist right elsewhere in the world, including the UK.
The one good thing about being a pessimist is that you can never be disappointed. Having never expected Trump to lose I don’t have that terrible sinking feeling many others must be experiencing now. But a bigger Biden popular vote win than Clinton got, but Trump staying in the White House is going to put the US in an even darker place, while empowering the populist right elsewhere in the world, including the UK.
Still, Trump will get more than the 35% Blair got in 2005.
The one good thing about being a pessimist is that you can never be disappointed. Having never expected Trump to lose I don’t have that terrible sinking feeling many others must be experiencing now. But a bigger Biden popular vote win than Clinton got, but Trump staying in the White House is going to put the US in an even darker place, while empowering the populist right elsewhere in the world, including the UK.
You are right, that is the darkest truth of all, how this shows others how to win by ripping up the conservative play fair rule book, and standing on populist, nationalist, blood and soil platform.
Biden winning Georgia would be close to game over.
Yes, unless there is a regional swing we haven't seen yet in Midwest white voters. Even Georgia being within 1% either way would, all else being equal, suggests Biden is favourite in the Midwest.
I am trying to work out where the polling went wrong - was it shy Trump voters, or the Democrats losing a chunk of the Hispanic vote they'd assumed was theirs...... Really fascinating and no doubt discussions aplenty.
Joe and Jill Biden are expected to soon address the country from their home state of Delaware, as the presidential race remains too close to call.
The Democratic nominee is expected to urge patience with the tabulation of votes while expressing confidence about his results in Arizona and the Midwest.
According to some reports the only demographic group where Trump's support declined was white men. His support went up with black men, black women, white women and Hispanics. Not sure which exit poll it was.
Joe and Jill Biden are expected to soon address the country from their home state of Delaware, as the presidential race remains too close to call.
The Democratic nominee is expected to urge patience with the tabulation of votes while expressing confidence about his results in Arizona and the Midwest.
Why? I cannot see how saying anything helps. Maybe Biden should announce he is stepping down in favour of Kamala Harris, if only because that is the only thing he can say that would justify saying anything at all.
A couple of weeks ago I suggested Trump has one chance in six. At the moment, it’s looking more like one in three.
One anecdote I should perhaps have paid more attention to is that the friend of a friend was alarmed at how many voters in Chapel Hill, North Carolina (seat of the UNC) were breaking for Trump. As I never thought NC was more than a medium shot for Biden, although more realistic than in 2016, I didn’t think it was that important.
But I am wondering if Biden’s Union links may have done him more damage among private sector workers than we realised.
So 20 years after the hanging chads fiasco the networks are still making fools of themselves with inaccurate and premature calls.
Yes but despite that, at the next general election here you will have PBers, perhaps including me, praising Sky for calling constituencies far earlier than the staid old BBC which waits for the returning officer to sing.
Biden winning Georgia would be close to game over.
Yes, unless there is a regional swing we haven't seen yet in Midwest white voters. Even Georgia being within 1% either way would, all else being equal, suggests Biden is favourite in the Midwest.
I am trying to work out where the polling went wrong - was it shy Trump voters, or the Democrats losing a chunk of the Hispanic vote they'd assumed was theirs...... Really fascinating and no doubt discussions aplenty.
I think in Florida it looks like under sampled early Trump voters.
So 20 years after the hanging chads fiasco the networks are still making fools of themselves with inaccurate and premature calls.
Yes but despite that, at the next general election here you will have PBers, perhaps including me, praising Sky for calling constituencies far earlier than the staid old BBC which waits for the returning officer to sing.
And getting them wrong. In 2010 ITV twice called Gedling for the Tories.
So 20 years after the hanging chads fiasco the networks are still making fools of themselves with inaccurate and premature calls.
Yes but despite that, at the next general election here you will have PBers, perhaps including me, praising Sky for calling constituencies far earlier than the staid old BBC which waits for the returning officer to sing.
The UK is a bit different, though, with agents and candidates actually knowing the result before it is formally declared, and alert campaigners knowing in practice well before that. The formal end-tying bits of the British electoral count can be very frustrating for all concerned.
In the last 30 minutes or so, the reporting figure for Michigan on the Guardian has moved from 51% to 57%. In that time the votes have split almost 50:50 between the two.
A couple of weeks ago I suggested Trump has one chance in six. At the moment, it’s looking more like one in three.
One anecdote I should perhaps have paid more attention to is that the friend of a friend was alarmed at how many voters in Chapel Hill, North Carolina (seat of the UNC) were breaking for Trump. As I never thought NC was more than a medium shot for Biden, although more realistic than in 2016, I didn’t think it was that important.
But I am wondering if Biden’s Union links may have done him more damage among private sector workers than we realised.
It is hard to see how. More likely is that Covid meant that workspace union activism has not played its usual part in the election because there are no people at the workspace.
Glad to have cashed out on Trump and taken small winnings. This is going to be a long ride. I sense he might win in Michigan and Pennsylvania but could lose a state elsewhere.
A couple of weeks ago I suggested Trump has one chance in six. At the moment, it’s looking more like one in three.
One anecdote I should perhaps have paid more attention to is that the friend of a friend was alarmed at how many voters in Chapel Hill, North Carolina (seat of the UNC) were breaking for Trump. As I never thought NC was more than a medium shot for Biden, although more realistic than in 2016, I didn’t think it was that important.
But I am wondering if Biden’s Union links may have done him more damage among private sector workers than we realised.
It is hard to see how. More likely is that Covid meant that workspace union activism has not played its usual part in the election because there are no people at the workspace.
It was mentioned as a possible reason for Trump pickup of Nevada. Lack f Union orginisation of poor Hispanics.
CNN are really starting to annoy me now. "Key race alerts" for states where not a single vote has been added to the totals since the previous "key race alert".
In the last 30 minutes or so, the reporting figure for Michigan on the Guardian has moved from 51% to 57%. In that time the votes have split almost 50:50 between the two.
Almost the same 50:50 split in WI between 72% reporting and 80% reporting.
CNN are really starting to annoy me now. "Key race alerts" for states where not a single vote has been added to the totals since the previous "key race alert".
Biden winning Georgia would be close to game over.
Yes, unless there is a regional swing we haven't seen yet in Midwest white voters. Even Georgia being within 1% either way would, all else being equal, suggests Biden is favourite in the Midwest.
I am trying to work out where the polling went wrong - was it shy Trump voters, or the Democrats losing a chunk of the Hispanic vote they'd assumed was theirs...... Really fascinating and no doubt discussions aplenty.
I think in Florida it looks like under sampled early Trump voters.
I think this will be the case across the country
If it is "Shy Trump" then exit polls should be similarly wrong. If exit polls are right then it looks more like a sampling error than shy Trump voters. Surveymonkey say they do not use weighted quota samples but rely on large numbers, so their results will also be interesting.
I think the Republicans must hold the Senate, on these numbers.
The system continuing to maintain the paralysis for which it appears designed?
The Republicans look like they've lost AZ and CO and picked up AL.
Which makes it 52-48.
I think the Republicans definitely held Iowa. The Dems will be utterly overjoyed that the Georgia runoff is against Loeffler, and I suspect Tills holds on in NC.
Georgia is now 2.5-3.0 Dems. Arizona 1.15-1.34. Michigan 1.7-1.9. Wisconsin 1.65 ish. PA 2.6-2.7.
I hope AZ, MI, and WI (all favourites) land for Biden - like all Trump’s favourites seem to have landed. Then a congressional vote, or better still, PA gets him over the line.
I don’t think I would go that far on its own. It’s Michigan and Wisconsin going, if they do, that would make him clear favourite and make it difficult to see how Trump could win.
However, it appears to be close there and in Montana, which was noted as a possible outlier a few weeks ago.
I don’t think I would go that far on its own. It’s Michigan and Wisconsin going, if they do, that would make him clear favourite and make it difficult to see how Trump could win.
However, it appears to be close there and in Montana, which was noted as a possible outlier a few weeks ago.
Comments
I thought Biden had blown it without winning PA. And maybe that will be the still be the case. But he’s back to roughly Evens in PA and could win even without PA.
Biden 2.14-2.16 to be President. It’s the Hope that kills you.
You can’t defend the respectable pollsters in Florida, when out of 30 polls in last three months Trump only led in 1 of them.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128151441
Possible.
But ONLY if there's lots of Atlanta to count.
There are approx 500,000 votes from Fulton and DeKalb to come in. They should be overwhelmingly for Biden.
BUT.
Biden is a long way behind. I suspect he falls just short.
EDIT: oops and now its gone the other way. Swinging hugely.
The Democratic nominee is expected to urge patience with the tabulation of votes while expressing confidence about his results in Arizona and the Midwest.
If so, the gap is closer than it looks.
One anecdote I should perhaps have paid more attention to is that the friend of a friend was alarmed at how many voters in Chapel Hill, North Carolina (seat of the UNC) were breaking for Trump. As I never thought NC was more than a medium shot for Biden, although more realistic than in 2016, I didn’t think it was that important.
But I am wondering if Biden’s Union links may have done him more damage among private sector workers than we realised.
Whole state is 55% early vote.
Scope for massive move to Biden.
I think this will be the case across the country
If he wins those two, AZ sticks and NE2 sticks then he's there.
Trump is favourite for PA.
Mobile phones destroyed count secrecy
If AZ comes in, and possibly GA, and he loses everything else we.. uhh.. hit the 269 scenario on my counting. I suspect this is going to be a nail biter but Biden will -just- do it.
What I don’t see happening is the Senate flipping, which will royally screw the Democrats for the next 2 years at least.
"Key race alerts" for states where not a single vote has been added to the totals since the previous "key race alert".
https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1323862717883699205
Which makes it 52-48.
I think the Republicans definitely held Iowa. The Dems will be utterly overjoyed that the Georgia runoff is against Loeffler, and I suspect Tills holds on in NC.
I hope AZ, MI, and WI (all favourites) land for Biden - like all Trump’s favourites seem to have landed. Then a congressional vote, or better still, PA gets him over the line.
I think Biden has picked up AZ and WI. MN looks like an easy hold.
Trump has held TX. And almost certainly NC too.
I don't know how NV will vote.
GA is probably a GOP hold.
PA currently looks poor for the Dems.
Which means - pretty much - like the winner of MI wins the election.
Trump has a nine point lead with half the votes counted. But on the day has been counted first, and VA has shown how misleading this can be,
However, it appears to be close there and in Montana, which was noted as a possible outlier a few weeks ago.
https://twitter.com/naamanzhou/status/1323865365974183936?s=20