I kind of feel like this is the problem. I empathise with this stuff I really do but I think telling your voters that they're basically stupid is how we keep losing elections
In my defence I did say Biden was an appalling candidate.
Nah, you don't get away with that.
You've been pooh-poohing on here for months anyone who made a Democratic sceptic argument on the grounds of their appalling identity politics, leftish economics, and the emerging evidence of minorities being put off by that.
You got it badly badly wrong. Man up, own it and apologise.
Hear hear, why can't people just say they get things wrong?
I kind of feel like this is the problem. I empathise with this stuff I really do but I think telling your voters that they're basically stupid is how we keep losing elections
Time for a bit of sleep for me, too. Thought I’d be able to participate more, but been very busy mitigating potential losses while preserving some prospect of wins. Florida was a bucket of cold water to the face. Got out of most of my state bets with a small loss ... a wrench to have to bail on Texas, though.
Kudos to HYUFD & Mr Ed for getting a lot closer with their predictions than I though they would.
As note to some poll count trackers being referenced below. The estimated 'votes in' percentage may be referencing precincts not actual votes. Obviously precincts can vary in voter roll size so beware.
I kind of feel like this is the problem. I empathise with this stuff I really do but I think telling your voters that they're basically stupid is how we keep losing elections
Time for a bit of sleep for me, too. Thought I’d be able to participate more, but been very busy mitigating potential losses while preserving some prospect of wins. Florida was a bucket of cold water to the face. Got out of most of my state bets with a small loss ... a wrench to have to bail on Texas, though.
Kudos to HYUFD & Mr Ed for getting a lot closer with their predictions than I though they would.
Thank you @Nigelb hope you still come out winning something
In my defence I did say Biden was an appalling candidate.
Nah, you don't get away with that.
You've been pooh-poohing on here for months anyone who made a Democratic sceptic argument on the grounds of their appalling identity politics, leftish economics, and the emerging evidence of minorities being put off by that.
You got it badly badly wrong. Man up, own it and apologise.
Hear hear, why can't people just say they get things wrong?
Well this was my forecast so I'm still in the game , but if I'm just the wrong side of the numbers I will tip my hat to those who called it right. I suspected Trump might have a shot but I didn't back him as some did here so fair play to them if he does pull off a second miracle win. https://www.270towin.com/maps/n0Kld.png
Bed time for me also. Many thanks to all. Some frantic undoing of bets for me. Well done to whoever has predicted this right, I suspect Biden should be slight favourite but that might turn out to be as bad as my prediction of a Biden landslide by tomorrow.
I'm Trump +200 and Biden +430 and letting that ride.
97 % of precincts but only 74% of ballots counted...there is still a whopping 1.8-1.9 million votes to count and I think some large urban areas to come. Trump leads by just over 70k
Nate Cohn says there is a reporting error in one country that could be affecting the NYT needle
The military don’t pay tax if they are registered there, so of course they register there, and their votes will not be counted till the ninth or something like that.
Honestly I am not making it up. No battleground state has declared yet, and many of them have backlog of Biden votes to be counted in what we were warned is a red mirage. And then there’s the objections. Like Democrats might appeal in Texas for example, because some shenanigans may not be known to us yet.
Still a very tight race, but one where I would have to join the throngs questioning the current odds. Biden still favourite for me.
Good night all.
I think he is but only just and I think it's about expectation because it's not what many of us though, myself included, coming into the night. I was very confident he'd win. Thoroughly ill-advisedly as it happens.
97 % of precincts but only 74% of ballots counted...there is still a whopping 1.8-1.9 million votes to count and I think some large urban areas to come. Trump leads by just over 70k
Nate Cohn says there is a reporting error in one country that could be affecting the NYT needle
My vote sums are incorrect but its fair to say its still not quite done.
Yes, this is the seat Doug Jones won in 2017 against Roy Moore. Moore ran again in the GOP primary but came nowhere near winning. A more normal GOP candidate has taken an easy win.
I know plenty of election officials here hate counting through the night. I hope that never becomes the norm.
But they still generally do it, and we usually have a UK result within 8 hours of the polls closing.
This is one going to take days to sort out, even before we get into the recounts and challenges. Several states already suggesting Friday at the earliest.
A few weeks ago I almost thought of placing a bet on Arizona being the only state to change hands at this election. Not sure it would have been possible anyway.
Mike L. Betfair has Biden winning AZ and slight favourite to win MI and WI. If he wins all three, please explain the congressional vote. I don’t know about this. Thanks.
Mike L. Betfair has Biden winning AZ and slight favourite to win MI and WI. If he wins all three, please explain the congressional vote. I don’t know about this. Thanks.
Hilary got 232.
Biden needs to gain 37 for a tie, 38 to win.
AZ 11 MI 16 WI 10
Total 37 means a tie. Obviously Biden wins if get PA 20 instead of MI or WI.
There are then two single Congressional districts in NE and ME which are competitive - both won by Trump in 2016 (those states are not winner takes all - they give an Electoral Vote for each District separately).
So if Biden gains one of these he gets to 270 with AZ/MI/WI
Mike L. Betfair has Biden winning AZ and slight favourite to win MI and WI. If he wins all three, please explain the congressional vote. I don’t know about this. Thanks.
Nebraska splits it's electoral college votes and one of the congressional districts with one vote is competitive.
Mike L. Betfair has Biden winning AZ and slight favourite to win MI and WI. If he wins all three, please explain the congressional vote. I don’t know about this. Thanks.
The House decides the winner if there is a 269-269 tie, BUT it is by state delegation (each state has one vote decided on the reps for that state.). The GOP currently lead on this value, despite the Dems having a big House majority.
There’s some debate on whether the new or old House does the vote.
AZ is big - because Biden now only needs two of PA/MI/WI - unless he just got MI/WI and neither Congressional district.
However it looks like Biden is in trouble in Nevada, meaning he does need all 3 in Midwest, where Pen isn’t looking so good either?
I concede this isn’t 350 ev to Biden. ☹️ This is no landslide.
Is it my fault, or A rated pollsters who didn’t just show leads, but consistently, poll after poll?
Not just some surprisingly big PV polls, but state polls, senate race polls that back up the other polls.
Now if Stalin was in charge of this polling industry, what do you think will happen?
I’ll add one other thing. Both teams knew, even though the rest of us didn’t, they all camped out in the Midwest for the last days of the campaign.
I don't think we have enough data to judge the polls yet. FL seems to have been pretty bad but it's a weird state, GA and NC seems like a pretty small miss, TX and AZ look like they were pretty good, and we know almost nothing about the midwest or the popular vote.
It wasn't a secret that the midwest was the easiest path and FL/NC/GA/TX were insurance/dessert. (Although that may turn out out not to be true, we don't know much about the midwest yet...)
Ready for the egg to hit my face, but right now I see Biden taking MN, WI and MI. Trump gets NC, GA, IA.
Puts Biden over 270 even without PA (genuine tossup).
Persuade me otherwise?
Trump looks to be outperforming in some counties in Ohio and Pennsylvania that would be correlated with WI and MI, so it might be tough for Biden to win both of them.
Comments
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1323827901217886210?s=20
https://twitter.com/jemelehill/status/1323815997191544833
https://twitter.com/TitaniaMcGrath/status/1322726056139411456
MI has 16 ECVs and PA 20 ECVs. Assuming he doesn't drop the Nebraska district or lose Nevada then either Michigan or PA should do it... just.
Thought I’d be able to participate more, but been very busy mitigating potential losses while preserving some prospect of wins. Florida was a bucket of cold water to the face.
Got out of most of my state bets with a small loss ... a wrench to have to bail on Texas, though.
Kudos to HYUFD & Mr Ed for getting a lot closer with their predictions than I though they would.
The tweet is just f##king racist.
Or is it a red mirage? 🙂
I think it's bedtime for me too.
Good night all.
https://www.270towin.com/maps/n0Kld.png
Also Nate Silver has just posted that there is a software glitch that is preventing 80,000 likely very blue mail votes in Georgia being counted
I'm Trump +200 and Biden +430 and letting that ride.
Edit, wrong sums
Not sure why - no significant votes counted in last few mins.
Honestly I am not making it up. No battleground state has declared yet, and many of them have backlog of Biden votes to be counted in what we were warned is a red mirage. And then there’s the objections. Like Democrats might appeal in Texas for example, because some shenanigans may not be known to us yet.
Sigh. Sorry.
Night all.
My vote sums are incorrect but its fair to say its still not quite done.
More than 1 million mail ballots still to be counted.
These % reporting figures historically used to be unreliable as I think they just counted number of precincts.
Tonight, they seem to be more reliable so more detailed analysis looks to have been done.
Biden leading by 9% in NE-02 but presumably early votes.
There has to be something to have a case about.
Sure they might rule out mail ballots arriving after today - but that is very unlikely to make a significant difference.
And so far the GOP has lost every Court case they've tried - even with Republican Judges.
This is one going to take days to sort out, even before we get into the recounts and challenges. Several states already suggesting Friday at the earliest.
AZ is big - because Biden now only needs two of PA/MI/WI - unless he just got MI/WI and neither Congressional district.
I get up and find PB still telling me that Biden is value. That's all I've read on here for the last few months (with one notable exception btl).
Biden needs to gain 37 for a tie, 38 to win.
AZ 11
MI 16
WI 10
Total 37 means a tie. Obviously Biden wins if get PA 20 instead of MI or WI.
There are then two single Congressional districts in NE and ME which are competitive - both won by Trump in 2016 (those states are not winner takes all - they give an Electoral Vote for each District separately).
So if Biden gains one of these he gets to 270 with AZ/MI/WI
There’s some debate on whether the new or old House does the vote.
I concede this isn’t 350 ev to Biden. ☹️ This is no landslide.
Is it my fault, or A rated pollsters who didn’t just show leads, but consistently, poll after poll?
Not just some surprisingly big PV polls, but state polls, senate race polls that back up the other polls.
Now if Stalin was in charge of this polling industry, what do you think will happen?
Dems 2/9 for Nevada
It wasn't a secret that the midwest was the easiest path and FL/NC/GA/TX were insurance/dessert. (Although that may turn out out not to be true, we don't know much about the midwest yet...)
Puts Biden over 270 even without PA (genuine tossup).
Persuade me otherwise?
Biden's "You ain't black" comments went down really badly with large segments of the African-American community.