"They knew they couldn't win. So they said, 'let's go to court' (...) We want the law to be used in a proper manner, so we’ll be going to the US Supreme Court. We want all voting to stop. We don’t want them finding any ballots at four in the morning and adding them to the list." Meanwhjle he talks about a conspiracy to "disenfranchise" his own voters.
He's not confident, is he? He's stronger in electoral politics when he's the underdog. The opposite was true in his wrestling-TV persona.
Most of the news reports I'm reading are confusing "holds" with "wins". Trump didn't "win" Texas. He held that state, which in 2016 he won by his 9th or 10th smallest margin (counting NE-2 as a half). The 2% swing against him there in 2020 was insufficient to overturn his 9% majority.
Trump did win Texas. Yes it was a hold, but it was a win too.
You (or the teams behind the screen in nerdville) look at the counties with significant numbers of votes outstanding and extrapolate based on the full county result last time and any observable swing, then add these as a projection to the totals already counted.
No Rochdale is quite wrong. Several of the states left look good for Biden as flips.
I have been convinced for weeks Biden would walk into the White House and catching up the news just now the one thing it does confirm to me is that I was wrong and have been wise not ever to bet
It also shows the folly in predicting polls and while it still looks like Biden may edge it, no doubt the lawyers will have their say
HYUFD and I have our disagreements but I hold up my hands and apologise to him as it does look like he was very prescient in his forecasts
Seriously disappointing night in the Senate for the Dems too. Not over yet but not looking good. Even if Biden wins he is likely to face a lot of issues getting appointments, especially judicial, through.
Without the trifecta it's as good as a loss.
There is no chance of packing the Supreme Court, now. It has a 6-3 conservative majority for a long time to come. That said, conservative judges often become less conservative over time.
Also, it doesn't mean they're in the business of fixing elections.
If there isn't a legal reason to invalidate the election results then they won't rule there is one.
US Justices aren't impartial. If its a 6/3 or 5/4 decision then that doesn't mean there was a legal reason to do so.
They aren't impartial but are still lawyers and have to find a reasonable reason.
All I have seen this morning is the fairly lightweight frothy coverage from the BBC. So what is the PB Collective view on this in terms of the bare scores on the doors? Are they right that Biden is going to win this on paper (ignoring any idiotic challenges from Trump) or is it really still the case that Trump could take Penn and one of the other Mid Wests and win the election at the ballot box rather than in the courts?
Seriously disappointing night in the Senate for the Dems too. Not over yet but not looking good. Even if Biden wins he is likely to face a lot of issues getting appointments, especially judicial, through.
Without the trifecta it's as good as a loss.
There is no chance of packing the Supreme Court, now. It has a 6-3 conservative majority for a long time to come. That said, conservative judges often become less conservative over time.
Also, it doesn't mean they're in the business of fixing elections.
If there isn't a legal reason to invalidate the election results then they won't rule there is one.
US Justices aren't impartial. If its a 6/3 or 5/4 decision then that doesn't mean there was a legal reason to do so.
They aren't impartial but are still lawyers and have to find a reasonable reason.
Its easy for a lawyer to find a reason to justify what they want to justify.
A Justice is supposed to determine what the law is though, not what they want it to be.
HYUFD and I have our disagreements but I hold up my hands and apologise to him as it does look like he was very prescient in his forecasts
No it doesn't. Not yet.
Biden is still favourite to win this from here. And the final ECV tally may look a lot more clearcut than the currently confused situation.
And Biden will have won the popular vote by over the 2% Hillary win.
What it is not, however, is a landslide.
I agree, Biden looks the more likely. Whatever happens though, there will be a major reckoning both within the Democratic Party and the polling industry at the scale of the victory.
All I have seen this morning is the fairly lightweight frothy coverage from the BBC. So what is the PB Collective view on this in terms of the bare scores on the doors? Are they right that Biden is going to win this on paper (ignoring any idiotic challenges from Trump) or is it really still the case that Trump could take Penn and one of the other Mid Wests and win the election at the ballot box rather than in the courts?
You (or the teams behind the screen in nerdville) look at the counties with significant numbers of votes outstanding and extrapolate based on the full county result last time and any observable swing, then add these as a projection to the totals already counted.
No Rochdale is quite wrong. Several of the states left look good for Biden as flips.
Fine, but you said you literally had no idea how it was done.
Hmm. I’m feeling slightly more nervous for Biden now. Those PA and WI deficits look tough. I think we are back to 50/50 in my mind. Winning GA would help.
Relax on PA. They haven't even begun counting votes cast by mail.
HYUFD and I have our disagreements but I hold up my hands and apologise to him as it does look like he was very prescient in his forecasts
No it doesn't. Not yet.
Biden is still favourite to win this from here. And the final ECV tally may look a lot more clearcut than the currently confused situation.
And Biden will have won the popular vote by over the 2% Hillary win.
What it is not, however, is a landslide.
Given how polarised the US is, we should assume that landslide wins are very unlikely, now. In terms of vote share, even Obama's 2008 victory was not really a landslide.
Is a lot of the talk about Pennsylvania not missing the bigger picture here? If Biden wins Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan then he wins. Penn is irrelevant now he;s got Arizona and NE2 in the bag?
Seriously disappointing night in the Senate for the Dems too. Not over yet but not looking good. Even if Biden wins he is likely to face a lot of issues getting appointments, especially judicial, through.
Without the trifecta it's as good as a loss.
There is no chance of packing the Supreme Court, now. It has a 6-3 conservative majority for a long time to come. That said, conservative judges often become less conservative over time.
Also, it doesn't mean they're in the business of fixing elections.
If there isn't a legal reason to invalidate the election results then they won't rule there is one.
US Justices aren't impartial. If its a 6/3 or 5/4 decision then that doesn't mean there was a legal reason to do so.
They aren't impartial but are still lawyers and have to find a reasonable reason.
Its easy for a lawyer to find a reason to justify what they want to justify.
A Justice is supposed to determine what the law is though, not what they want it to be.
All I have seen this morning is the fairly lightweight frothy coverage from the BBC. So what is the PB Collective view on this in terms of the bare scores on the doors? Are they right that Biden is going to win this on paper (ignoring any idiotic challenges from Trump) or is it really still the case that Trump could take Penn and one of the other Mid Wests and win the election at the ballot box rather than in the courts?
I'd say a 55% likelihood of a Biden win.
That seems about right.
The only thing stopping me betting on Biden is I'm too red on him as it is.
Is a lot of the talk about Pennsylvania not missing the bigger picture here? If Biden wins Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan then he wins. Penn is irrelevant now he;s got Arizona and NE2 in the bag?
"They knew they couldn't win. So they said, 'let's go to court' (...) We want the law to be used in a proper manner, so we’ll be going to the US Supreme Court. We want all voting to stop. We don’t want them finding any ballots at four in the morning and adding them to the list." Meanwhjle he talks about a conspiracy to "disenfranchise" his own voters.
He's not confident, is he? He's stronger in electoral politics when he's the underdog. The opposite was true in his wrestling-TV persona.
Most of the news reports I'm reading are confusing "holds" with "wins". Trump didn't "win" Texas. He held that state, which in 2016 he won by his 9th or 10th smallest margin (counting NE-2 as a half). The 2% swing against him there in 2020 was insufficient to overturn his 9% majority.
Trump did win Texas. Yes it was a hold, but it was a win too.
OK, true. Point taken. They do say "win" rather than "gain". But the impression in some reports is "whoop-de-doo". Managed to hold on to it because his voteshare loss wasn't big enough to flip it would be fairer reporting.
HYUFD and I have our disagreements but I hold up my hands and apologise to him as it does look like he was very prescient in his forecasts
No it doesn't. Not yet.
Biden is still favourite to win this from here. And the final ECV tally may look a lot more clearcut than the currently confused situation.
And Biden will have won the popular vote by over the 2% Hillary win.
What it is not, however, is a landslide.
What are you basing this on? Are you assuming Biden has two of Penn, Wisc and Michigan?
On CNN they're explaining which areas have counted what proportion of the mail in votes. Hundreds of thousands outstanding and mostly from predominatly Democratic areas. Lots more counting needed before things become clear.
HYUFD and I have our disagreements but I hold up my hands and apologise to him as it does look like he was very prescient in his forecasts
No it doesn't. Not yet.
Biden is still favourite to win this from here. And the final ECV tally may look a lot more clearcut than the currently confused situation.
And Biden will have won the popular vote by over the 2% Hillary win.
What it is not, however, is a landslide.
Given how polarised the US is, we should assume that landslide wins are very unlikely, now. In terms of vote share, even Obama's 2008 victory was not really a landslide.
All I have seen this morning is the fairly lightweight frothy coverage from the BBC. So what is the PB Collective view on this in terms of the bare scores on the doors? Are they right that Biden is going to win this on paper (ignoring any idiotic challenges from Trump) or is it really still the case that Trump could take Penn and one of the other Mid Wests and win the election at the ballot box rather than in the courts?
I think I am the only person on here who feels a Biden win is marginally more likely than it was yesterday evening, although I think Trump will still win - just. The Minnessota polls were within 1% of the final result and I think that does suggest that the margin of polling error will not be that great in its neighbouring states this time out.
It’s worth noting that Biden is set to win the popular vote by a wider margin than Clinton did in 2016. So, we can place the American people next to pollsters and liberal elites in that list of losers if Trump does win.
If Trump is re elected therefore he will also be the first President in US history to have been re elected without ever having won the national popular vote
All I have seen this morning is the fairly lightweight frothy coverage from the BBC. So what is the PB Collective view on this in terms of the bare scores on the doors? Are they right that Biden is going to win this on paper (ignoring any idiotic challenges from Trump) or is it really still the case that Trump could take Penn and one of the other Mid Wests and win the election at the ballot box rather than in the courts?
I'd say a 55% likelihood of a Biden win.
Morning Sean, I crashed out at 3am assuming a Trump victory.
HYUFD and I have our disagreements but I hold up my hands and apologise to him as it does look like he was very prescient in his forecasts
No it doesn't. Not yet.
Biden is still favourite to win this from here. And the final ECV tally may look a lot more clearcut than the currently confused situation.
And Biden will have won the popular vote by over the 2% Hillary win.
What it is not, however, is a landslide.
What are you basing this on? Are you assuming Biden has two of Penn, Wisc and Michigan?
On CNN they're explaining which areas have counted what proportion of the mail in votes. Hundreds of thousands outstanding and mostly from predominatly Democratic areas. Lots more counting needed before things become clear.
I know that. Mysticrose is claiming that Biden is favourite to win presidency but I'm struggling to see how this conclusion is reached.
HYUFD and I have our disagreements but I hold up my hands and apologise to him as it does look like he was very prescient in his forecasts
No it doesn't. Not yet.
Biden is still favourite to win this from here. And the final ECV tally may look a lot more clearcut than the currently confused situation.
And Biden will have won the popular vote by over the 2% Hillary win.
What it is not, however, is a landslide.
Given how polarised the US is, we should assume that landslide wins are very unlikely, now. In terms of vote share, even Obama's 2008 victory was not really a landslide.
I have been convinced for weeks Biden would walk into the White House and catching up the news just now the one thing it does confirm to me is that I was wrong and have been wise not ever to bet
It also shows the folly in predicting polls and while it still looks like Biden may edge it, no doubt the lawyers will have their say
HYUFD and I have our disagreements but I hold up my hands and apologise to him as it does look like he was very prescient in his forecasts
All I have seen this morning is the fairly lightweight frothy coverage from the BBC. So what is the PB Collective view on this in terms of the bare scores on the doors? Are they right that Biden is going to win this on paper (ignoring any idiotic challenges from Trump) or is it really still the case that Trump could take Penn and one of the other Mid Wests and win the election at the ballot box rather than in the courts?
I'd say a 55% likelihood of a Biden win.
Morning Sean, I crashed out at 3am assuming a Trump victory.
Can you explain the path to 270 for Biden?
(Or can anyone?)
I have just woken up.
2 out of 3 of Georgia, Michigan or Wisconsin - assuming PA is too far gone for Biden...(which I think it is, just)
If we agree to junk the polls as being misleading in places like Florida, we can judge the campaigns on their historical merits and not on made-up expectations. Biden/Harris came closer than any challenger except Clintin
It’s worth noting that Biden is set to win the popular vote by a wider margin than Clinton did in 2016. So, we can place the American people next to pollsters and liberal elites in that list of losers if Trump does win.
No, you can’t.
If it was important to them to have the vote determined by population there is a process for changing the Constitution
All I have seen this morning is the fairly lightweight frothy coverage from the BBC. So what is the PB Collective view on this in terms of the bare scores on the doors? Are they right that Biden is going to win this on paper (ignoring any idiotic challenges from Trump) or is it really still the case that Trump could take Penn and one of the other Mid Wests and win the election at the ballot box rather than in the courts?
I'd say a 55% likelihood of a Biden win.
Morning Sean, I crashed out at 3am assuming a Trump victory.
Can you explain the path to 270 for Biden?
(Or can anyone?)
I have just woken up.
Biden scored AZ and Omaha, so he needs any two of:
GA - mostly counted, looks like squeaker MI/PA/WI - mail mostly not counted yet
It’s worth noting that Biden is set to win the popular vote by a wider margin than Clinton did in 2016. So, we can place the American people next to pollsters and liberal elites in that list of losers if Trump does win.
No, you can’t.
If it was important to them to have the vote determined by population there is a process for changing the Constitution
Which is itself a majority-vote process? Innocent face.
All I have seen this morning is the fairly lightweight frothy coverage from the BBC. So what is the PB Collective view on this in terms of the bare scores on the doors? Are they right that Biden is going to win this on paper (ignoring any idiotic challenges from Trump) or is it really still the case that Trump could take Penn and one of the other Mid Wests and win the election at the ballot box rather than in the courts?
I'd say a 55% likelihood of a Biden win.
Morning Sean, I crashed out at 3am assuming a Trump victory.
Can you explain the path to 270 for Biden?
(Or can anyone?)
I have just woken up.
Biden scored AZ and Omaha, so he needs any two of:
GA - mostly counted, looks like squeaker MI/PA/WI - mail mostly not counted yet
All I have seen this morning is the fairly lightweight frothy coverage from the BBC. So what is the PB Collective view on this in terms of the bare scores on the doors? Are they right that Biden is going to win this on paper (ignoring any idiotic challenges from Trump) or is it really still the case that Trump could take Penn and one of the other Mid Wests and win the election at the ballot box rather than in the courts?
I'd say a 55% likelihood of a Biden win.
Morning Sean, I crashed out at 3am assuming a Trump victory.
Can you explain the path to 270 for Biden?
(Or can anyone?)
I have just woken up.
Broadly speaking a number of major outlets have called Arizona for Biden. He has Minnessota - where the final result was within 1% of the polling average. Trump has only a 4% lead in Wisconsin with absentees and Milwaukee yet to report finally. He's within 100,000 votes in Georgia where the bulk of the county containing Atlanta is yet to report. And anecdotally his advantage in mail-in ballots in PA is off the scale.
That being said, I think that my predicion yesterday of a bigger PV win for Biden than Clinton and a narrower EC win for Trump will happen. And that will provoke serious issues in the States.
Is a lot of the talk about Pennsylvania not missing the bigger picture here? If Biden wins Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan then he wins. Penn is irrelevant now he;s got Arizona and NE2 in the bag?
Wisconsin is possibly the hardest of the three to win, if I'm reading the current results correctly, so the most likely victory path for Biden would then be Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Just woke up after few hours sleep to pretty much what I expected. Both sides suggesting they are winning (or on the way to winning). Looking at the Fox news map currently Biden 238/213 (they have called AZ for him) and whats left so I'm adding the 6 for NV as though close looks very good for Biden. So at 244 he needs 26, from PA, MI, WI, and GA (im discounting NC as looks certain Trumps won there). Hope I've got that right. Coffee time
HYUFD and I have our disagreements but I hold up my hands and apologise to him as it does look like he was very prescient in his forecasts
No it doesn't. Not yet.
Biden is still favourite to win this from here. And the final ECV tally may look a lot more clearcut than the currently confused situation.
And Biden will have won the popular vote by over the 2% Hillary win.
What it is not, however, is a landslide.
Given how polarised the US is, we should assume that landslide wins are very unlikely, now. In terms of vote share, even Obama's 2008 victory was not really a landslide.
Agreed
Identity politics has a lot to answer for
I think Trump's pitch that he's for all patriotic Americans rather than categorising Americans into black, Hispanic, and White with intersections amongst them genders & sexuality all might have had considerable appeal.
I expect the Democratic base to learn precisely zero lessons from this.
All I have seen this morning is the fairly lightweight frothy coverage from the BBC. So what is the PB Collective view on this in terms of the bare scores on the doors? Are they right that Biden is going to win this on paper (ignoring any idiotic challenges from Trump) or is it really still the case that Trump could take Penn and one of the other Mid Wests and win the election at the ballot box rather than in the courts?
I'd say a 55% likelihood of a Biden win.
Morning Sean, I crashed out at 3am assuming a Trump victory.
Can you explain the path to 270 for Biden?
(Or can anyone?)
I have just woken up.
2 out of 3 of Georgia, Michigan or Wisconsin - assuming PA is too far gone for Biden...(which I think it is, just)
My take, PA might not be too far gone, but not needed anyway. Biden has won once he secures Michigan and Wisconsin.
Dems can still take the senate speakers gavel too, though through special elections in Georgia.
All I have seen this morning is the fairly lightweight frothy coverage from the BBC. So what is the PB Collective view on this in terms of the bare scores on the doors? Are they right that Biden is going to win this on paper (ignoring any idiotic challenges from Trump) or is it really still the case that Trump could take Penn and one of the other Mid Wests and win the election at the ballot box rather than in the courts?
I'd say a 55% likelihood of a Biden win.
Morning Sean, I crashed out at 3am assuming a Trump victory.
Can you explain the path to 270 for Biden?
(Or can anyone?)
I have just woken up.
2 out of 3 of Georgia, Michigan or Wisconsin - assuming PA is too far gone for Biden...(which I think it is, just)
All I have seen this morning is the fairly lightweight frothy coverage from the BBC. So what is the PB Collective view on this in terms of the bare scores on the doors? Are they right that Biden is going to win this on paper (ignoring any idiotic challenges from Trump) or is it really still the case that Trump could take Penn and one of the other Mid Wests and win the election at the ballot box rather than in the courts?
All I have seen this morning is the fairly lightweight frothy coverage from the BBC. So what is the PB Collective view on this in terms of the bare scores on the doors? Are they right that Biden is going to win this on paper (ignoring any idiotic challenges from Trump) or is it really still the case that Trump could take Penn and one of the other Mid Wests and win the election at the ballot box rather than in the courts?
I'd say a 55% likelihood of a Biden win.
Cheers Sean. So sadly it looks like months in court then.
Last night I was musing on why the US don't change Governments straight after the election rather than having a lame duck president sat there for months possibly causing all sorts of trouble. I suppose this situation is one reason why.
"US election results: Trump can still lose, but without a landslide his racism and lies have been vindicated Trump critics hoped this would be a defining moment, in which the US saw what this kind of politics entailed and decisively rejected it. That hasn’t happened author avatar image By Ian Dunt"
With Biden winning Wisconsin but losing Georgia, MI, PA
Yes, we've been here too often before, with projections as to how much difference "catching up" is going to make usually over-estimated, whether swing states for Clinton last time or Remain votes from London.
"They knew they couldn't win. So they said, 'let's go to court' (...) We want the law to be used in a proper manner, so we’ll be going to the US Supreme Court. We want all voting to stop. We don’t want them finding any ballots at four in the morning and adding them to the list." Meanwhjle he talks about a conspiracy to "disenfranchise" his own voters.
He's not confident, is he? He's stronger in electoral politics when he's the underdog. The opposite was true in his wrestling-TV persona.
Most of the news reports I'm reading are confusing "holds" with "wins". Trump didn't "win" Texas. He held that state, which in 2016 he won by his 9th or 10th smallest margin (counting NE-2 as a half). The 2% swing against him there in 2020 was insufficient to overturn his 9% majority.
Trump did win Texas. Yes it was a hold, but it was a win too.
OK, true. Point taken. They do say "win" rather than "gain". But the impression in some reports is "whoop-de-doo". Managed to hold on to it because his voteshare loss wasn't big enough to flip it would be fairer reporting.
All I have seen this morning is the fairly lightweight frothy coverage from the BBC. So what is the PB Collective view on this in terms of the bare scores on the doors? Are they right that Biden is going to win this on paper (ignoring any idiotic challenges from Trump) or is it really still the case that Trump could take Penn and one of the other Mid Wests and win the election at the ballot box rather than in the courts?
I'd say a 55% likelihood of a Biden win.
Morning Sean, I crashed out at 3am assuming a Trump victory.
Can you explain the path to 270 for Biden?
(Or can anyone?)
I have just woken up.
Biden scored AZ and Omaha, so he needs any two of:
GA - mostly counted, looks like squeaker MI/PA/WI - mail mostly not counted yet
That's right
Looking at the margins in the 3 rust belt states before those votes are counted, PA looks a stretch for Biden, so oddly enough I think his best chance might be to sneak Georgia (if thats possible still) then he has to win MI or WI? I think
With Biden winning Wisconsin but losing Georgia, MI, PA
Yes, we've been here too often before, with projections as to how much difference "catching up" is going to make usually over-estimated, whether swing states for Clinton last time or Remain votes for London.
PA in particular looks good for Trump.
Yep, Biden win needs something extraordinary in one rust belt seat AND Georgia to fall, now I think.
Is a lot of the talk about Pennsylvania not missing the bigger picture here? If Biden wins Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan then he wins. Penn is irrelevant now he;s got Arizona and NE2 in the bag?
Wisconsin is possibly the hardest of the three to win, if I'm reading the current results correctly, so the most likely victory path for Biden would then be Michigan and Pennsylvania.
“ Wisconsin is possibly the hardest of the three to win” what are you basing that on?
I really would urge those thinking PA looks good for Trump to keep your powder dry. We saw all through the night how either mail in ballots or on the day votes can totally alter the math.
Pa. haven't counted mail ins yet and they are expected to slew heavily Biden. The Dem team are positive about Pa.
All I have seen this morning is the fairly lightweight frothy coverage from the BBC. So what is the PB Collective view on this in terms of the bare scores on the doors? Are they right that Biden is going to win this on paper (ignoring any idiotic challenges from Trump) or is it really still the case that Trump could take Penn and one of the other Mid Wests and win the election at the ballot box rather than in the courts?
I think I am the only person on here who feels a Biden win is marginally more likely than it was yesterday evening, although I think Trump will still win - just. The Minnessota polls were within 1% of the final result and I think that does suggest that the margin of polling error will not be that great in its neighbouring states this time out.
It looks as though Biden needs either Pennsylvania, or any two of Wisconsin, Michigan and Georgia.
I am not sure it would be extraordinary for him to win either Wisconsin or Michigan, depending how big his margin in early votes is. Trump is only 4 points ahead in Wisconsin, with 18% still to come.
It looks as though Biden needs either Pennsylvania, or any two of Wisconsin, Michigan and Georgia.
I am not sure it would be extraordinary for him to win either Wisconsin or Michigan, depending how big his margin in early votes is. Trump is only 4 points ahead in Wisconsin, with 18% still to come.
Mr. Royale, BLM seem to have been good recruiting sergeants for Trump (as predicted by me and others, although the scale has surprised me a lot). Bit akin to Momentum over here.
You (or the teams behind the screen in nerdville) look at the counties with significant numbers of votes outstanding and extrapolate based on the full county result last time and any observable swing, then add these as a projection to the totals already counted.
No Rochdale is quite wrong. Several of the states left look good for Biden as flips.
All these states look narrow. If Trump wins them then any attempt by the DNC to challenge gets positioned as stealing the election. If Biden wins them then the RNC go to court to get chunks overturned as a fraudulent attempt to steal the election.
When its this partisan, and the votes are that tight, Trump wins regardless.
With Biden winning Wisconsin but losing Georgia, MI, PA
Yes, we've been here too often before, with projections as to how much difference "catching up" is going to make usually over-estimated, whether swing states for Clinton last time or Remain votes from London.
PA in particular looks good for Trump.
But it's not as though the talk of catching up is a post hoc thing in this case. We were warned all along that the on-the-day results in the Midwest would look very strong for Trump, and not to take them at face value.
Is a lot of the talk about Pennsylvania not missing the bigger picture here? If Biden wins Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan then he wins. Penn is irrelevant now he;s got Arizona and NE2 in the bag?
Wisconsin is possibly the hardest of the three to win, if I'm reading the current results correctly, so the most likely victory path for Biden would then be Michigan and Pennsylvania.
“ Wisconsin is possibly the hardest of the three to win” what are you basing that on?
The results on the Guardian are showing Milwaukee as 99% counted.
A good summary of the state of play just now on 538:
Where The Presidential Race And Outstanding Vote Stands … For Now
Readers, we’re going pausing a bit in our coverage as the election at this point is far from over. Biden leads in the electoral vote count, 227 to 213, but no candidate has a lock on 270 yet, and multiple paths exist for both Biden and Trump.
There are a number of projections in key battleground states we’re missing, including Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Maine, North Carolina and Georgia, and we likely won’t have projections there until early today — or later this week.
So we’d caution you at this point to not jump to any conclusions. We can say that Democrats did not have the evening they wanted in the Senate (see Nathaniel’s recap of the Senate races below) and that while Democrats maintained their majority in the House, they do not seem to have gained seats; instead Republicans made inroads, picking up districts like South Carolina’s 1st District, New Mexico’s 2nd District and Oklahoma’s 5th District, per the AP. And Collin Peterson, who was the most vulnerable incumbent in the House, has also lost in Minnesota’s 7th District, per ABC News.
But at this point, keep in mind that both Trump and Biden have multiple paths to the White House — and much hinges on Pennsylvania, the state our forecast puts as the most likely tipping-point state (or the state that delivers the 270th electoral vote). We’ll be back in a few hours, as we continue to track the vote.
Here’s a look at what we know about the outstanding vote in each battleground state:
Arizona: While some outlets, such as the Associated Press, have projected Arizona for Biden, ABC News has not. Before the election, officials did warn that any super-close races might not be resolved until the last votes are counted on Thursday or Friday. However, the race isn’t that close right now (Biden 52 percent, Trump 47 percent), so we might see a projection sooner. Wisconsin: 81 percent of the expected vote is already reporting here, and the rest should trickle in over the next few hours. Earlier tonight, Milwaukee County (expected to be among the last places to finish counting) said to expect semi-final results around 6 a.m. Eastern. Georgia: The big holdup here is Fulton County, which as of 2 a.m. was home to most of the outstanding ballots. The count there was delayed by a burst pipe (no ballots were damaged), and election officials told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution their goal was to go into Wednesday with just 20,000 ballots left to count. However, the secretary of state estimated those results would not be released until the afternoon. Michigan: There are still hundreds of thousands of absentee ballots to be counted here, and it’s unclear if counting will continue throughout the night. Election officials did say earlier on Tuesday that they expected counting to wrap up by Wednesday night. Pennsylvania: Major counties such as Philadelphia and Allegheny have reported their last ballots of the night (although Philadelphia will continue to count around the clock). Going into the election, many county and state election officials predicted that results wouldn’t approach completion until Friday. North Carolina: 95 percent of the expected vote has already been counted here, so it seems quite possible that all we’re waiting on are late-arriving mail-in ballots, which have until Nov. 12 to arrive. That means we could be waiting over a week for a call here. Maine: Honestly, this is anyone’s guess. Election officials are taking much longer here than they originally expected.
It’s worth noting that Biden is set to win the popular vote by a wider margin than Clinton did in 2016. So, we can place the American people next to pollsters and liberal elites in that list of losers if Trump does win.
If Trump is re elected therefore he will also be the first President in US history to have been re elected without ever having won the national popular vote
I haven't been on here for a while, last time I did I was grumbling that it had turned into en echo chamber obsessed with unreliable polls.
For a site allegedly full of well informed politicos who like betting its a joke
You could say that to the entire US polling industry.
Yep, and I read on here
"According to the polls"
When will you lot learn?
Learn what?
I can the false narrative already emerging, that no one suggested trump had a chance and that since polling is all crap anyone who listened to it at all was being silly. Clearly it was closer than many thought, and well done to those calling it closer, but let's bugger off with the attempts to claim that as more than it was.
I haven't been on here for a while, last time I did I was grumbling that it had turned into en echo chamber obsessed with unreliable polls.
For a site allegedly full of well informed politicos who like betting its a joke
You could say that to the entire US polling industry.
Yep, and I read on here
"According to the polls"
When will you lot learn?
Learn what?
I can the false narrative already emerging, that no one suggested trump had a chance and that since polling is all crap anyone who listened to it at all was being silly. Clearly it was closer than many thought, and well done to those calling it closer, but let's bugger off with the attempts to claim that as more than it was.
I second this. In fact there were multiple outlets suggesting Trump would take advantge of the lead he showed from on the day voting when the consensus is that mail ins would favour Biden. Let's look at where we are. Biden is ahead on EC votes called, Trump has slim (in the cases of Georgia and Wisconsin, very slim) leads in many of the pivotal remaining states pending results from the big cities and also mail-ins.
No one has a landslide here but many were suggesting an outcome along these lines. And Trump is lawyered up and before the courts today in PA. If that were in the bag then why bother?
1. Well, although there's currently an American rat currently still hanging on in the White House, the good news is that the Norwegian rats recently occupying My House don't seem to have done much damage to my kitchen overnight. I hope they've taken the bait.
2. It seems to me that US polling is just not as refined as UK polling. If a company could even get a proper exit poll they could do wonders.
3. George Stephanopoulos is a good host: has he been going all night?
Mr. Royale, BLM seem to have been good recruiting sergeants for Trump (as predicted by me and others, although the scale has surprised me a lot). Bit akin to Momentum over here.
Kneeling Starmer may want to take note.
perhaps the most bizarre comment of a very bizarre night!
I have had a look at the five remaining swing states and the probability of Biden taking them based on Betfair latest price.
Georgia 42% Wisconsin 79% Michigan 61% Penn 37% Nevada 67%
There are 32 B/T combinations of these 5 states. Of these 32 combinations, 16 give Biden 270+ ECs. I have computed the probabilities of each combination (ignoring correlation between states which I think is less important at this counting stage) and the probability that Biden finds a winning path is 66%. I have checked that all the combinations add up to 100%.
It is based on assumption that Biden has 238 "in the bag" including NE2. I think that is right. Without NE2 it drops to 48%.
I note that Biden is at currently 1.83 (55%) on Betfair.
Comments
Still dismissing Neill Ferguson and 1948?
Also although he used clearly dodgy data, our respectible data isn't exactly looking much better is it.
Maybe we just ask Trafalgar to look into a crystal ball and not bother to pretend to do a poll. Seems better than the pollsters.
I have been convinced for weeks Biden would walk into the White House and catching up the news just now the one thing it does confirm to me is that I was wrong and have been wise not ever to bet
It also shows the folly in predicting polls and while it still looks like Biden may edge it, no doubt the lawyers will have their say
HYUFD and I have our disagreements but I hold up my hands and apologise to him as it does look like he was very prescient in his forecasts
Biden is still favourite to win this from here. And the final ECV tally may look a lot more clearcut than the currently confused situation.
And Biden will have won the popular vote by over the 2% Hillary win.
What it is not, however, is a landslide.
Well. This is fun (he says ironically)
All I have seen this morning is the fairly lightweight frothy coverage from the BBC. So what is the PB Collective view on this in terms of the bare scores on the doors? Are they right that Biden is going to win this on paper (ignoring any idiotic challenges from Trump) or is it really still the case that Trump could take Penn and one of the other Mid Wests and win the election at the ballot box rather than in the courts?
Thank god I only bet a small amount on this election..
A Justice is supposed to determine what the law is though, not what they want it to be.
As I said it does look like a narrow Biden win
This is why Biden's position looks, cautiously, optimistic:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/04/politics/mail-in-ballots-pennsylvania-georgia-michigan-wisconsin/index.html
And I think he is taking Arizona where Kelly has defeated McSally to gain a Democrat Senate seat.
The only thing stopping me betting on Biden is I'm too red on him as it is.
He 'may' also win Georgia.
Lots more counting needed before things become clear.
Trump 283 - Biden 255
With Biden winning Wisconsin but losing Georgia, MI, PA
Can you explain the path to 270 for Biden?
(Or can anyone?)
I have just woken up.
Although I hope you or your book are right.
If it was important to them to have the vote determined by population there is a process for changing the Constitution
GA - mostly counted, looks like squeaker
MI/PA/WI - mail mostly not counted yet
That is one ornery set of voters....
That being said, I think that my predicion yesterday of a bigger PV win for Biden than Clinton and a narrower EC win for Trump will happen. And that will provoke serious issues in the States.
I expect the Democratic base to learn precisely zero lessons from this.
Dems can still take the senate speakers gavel too, though through special elections in Georgia.
Last night I was musing on why the US don't change Governments straight after the election rather than having a lame duck president sat there for months possibly causing all sorts of trouble. I suppose this situation is one reason why.
Squeaky situation there but their algorithms seem pretty good. ABC also think the outstanding votes in Georgia are good for Biden.
"US election results: Trump can still lose, but without a landslide his racism and lies have been vindicated
Trump critics hoped this would be a defining moment, in which the US saw what this kind of politics entailed and decisively rejected it. That hasn’t happened
author avatar image
By Ian Dunt"
https://inews.co.uk/opinion/us-election-results-donald-trump-can-lost-joe-biden-landslide-racism-lies-747977?ito=twitter_share_article-top
PA in particular looks good for Trump.
Nothing abut Texas that was a "gain".
Pa. haven't counted mail ins yet and they are expected to slew heavily Biden. The Dem team are positive about Pa.
I am not sure it would be extraordinary for him to win either Wisconsin or Michigan, depending how big his margin in early votes is. Trump is only 4 points ahead in Wisconsin, with 18% still to come.
A quick question - how many military ballots are there not in the numbers yet? And are they all in Florida?
Kneeling Starmer may want to take note.
When its this partisan, and the votes are that tight, Trump wins regardless.
Where The Presidential Race And Outstanding Vote Stands … For Now
Readers, we’re going pausing a bit in our coverage as the election at this point is far from over. Biden leads in the electoral vote count, 227 to 213, but no candidate has a lock on 270 yet, and multiple paths exist for both Biden and Trump.
There are a number of projections in key battleground states we’re missing, including Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Maine, North Carolina and Georgia, and we likely won’t have projections there until early today — or later this week.
So we’d caution you at this point to not jump to any conclusions. We can say that Democrats did not have the evening they wanted in the Senate (see Nathaniel’s recap of the Senate races below) and that while Democrats maintained their majority in the House, they do not seem to have gained seats; instead Republicans made inroads, picking up districts like South Carolina’s 1st District, New Mexico’s 2nd District and Oklahoma’s 5th District, per the AP. And Collin Peterson, who was the most vulnerable incumbent in the House, has also lost in Minnesota’s 7th District, per ABC News.
But at this point, keep in mind that both Trump and Biden have multiple paths to the White House — and much hinges on Pennsylvania, the state our forecast puts as the most likely tipping-point state (or the state that delivers the 270th electoral vote). We’ll be back in a few hours, as we continue to track the vote.
1/2
Arizona: While some outlets, such as the Associated Press, have projected Arizona for Biden, ABC News has not. Before the election, officials did warn that any super-close races might not be resolved until the last votes are counted on Thursday or Friday. However, the race isn’t that close right now (Biden 52 percent, Trump 47 percent), so we might see a projection sooner.
Wisconsin: 81 percent of the expected vote is already reporting here, and the rest should trickle in over the next few hours. Earlier tonight, Milwaukee County (expected to be among the last places to finish counting) said to expect semi-final results around 6 a.m. Eastern.
Georgia: The big holdup here is Fulton County, which as of 2 a.m. was home to most of the outstanding ballots. The count there was delayed by a burst pipe (no ballots were damaged), and election officials told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution their goal was to go into Wednesday with just 20,000 ballots left to count. However, the secretary of state estimated those results would not be released until the afternoon.
Michigan: There are still hundreds of thousands of absentee ballots to be counted here, and it’s unclear if counting will continue throughout the night. Election officials did say earlier on Tuesday that they expected counting to wrap up by Wednesday night.
Pennsylvania: Major counties such as Philadelphia and Allegheny have reported their last ballots of the night (although Philadelphia will continue to count around the clock). Going into the election, many county and state election officials predicted that results wouldn’t approach completion until Friday.
North Carolina: 95 percent of the expected vote has already been counted here, so it seems quite possible that all we’re waiting on are late-arriving mail-in ballots, which have until Nov. 12 to arrive. That means we could be waiting over a week for a call here.
Maine: Honestly, this is anyone’s guess. Election officials are taking much longer here than they originally expected.
2/2
Source: 538
No one has a landslide here but many were suggesting an outcome along these lines. And Trump is lawyered up and before the courts today in PA. If that were in the bag then why bother?
2. It seems to me that US polling is just not as refined as UK polling. If a company could even get a proper exit poll they could do wonders.
3. George Stephanopoulos is a good host: has he been going all night?
--AS
Georgia 42%
Wisconsin 79%
Michigan 61%
Penn 37%
Nevada 67%
There are 32 B/T combinations of these 5 states.
Of these 32 combinations, 16 give Biden 270+ ECs.
I have computed the probabilities of each combination (ignoring correlation between states which I think is less important at this counting stage) and the probability that Biden finds a winning path is 66%. I have checked that all the combinations add up to 100%.
It is based on assumption that Biden has 238 "in the bag" including NE2. I think that is right.
Without NE2 it drops to 48%.
I note that Biden is at currently 1.83 (55%) on Betfair.