I hope Biden doesn't get the blame for this because he's a nice guy. The problem in my opinion has been the people smashing up Portland and Seattle.
Of course he will. If he was a radical figure the moderates would say he was too radical, and the more progressive element will say he was not bold enough, didn't paint a big enough vision. The John Oliver types have been pretty clear they didn't think he was a great candidate or getting out the vote enough already.
This guy is really embarrassing. He got 2019 here completely wrong when he tried to re-weight the polls and he's been arrogantly stating a Biden win for weeks.
This guy is really embarrassing. He got 2019 here completely wrong when he tried to re-weight the polls and he's been arrogantly stating a Biden win for weeks.
He is broadly correct that Biden is outperforming in Ohio. I don't think many people thought it a likely Biden gain.
Well it is turning out to be more of a struggle than most thought, myself included, so it's easy for that to flip into an oh crap moment. Still some big areas in Ohio with plenty of votes to count, though I guess he doesn't need that one.
No I don't think he's lost yet - although I have a bad feeling - but I think it's not going to be a blowout as many here insisted and I hope those who did say that will hold their hands up if they do end up being wrong.
Signs of hope for Biden in AZ. He leads by 10 points in Maricopa with 77% reporting. Presumably all early vote but seems unlikely Trump will match his 2016 performance of winning by 3
This guy is really embarrassing. He got 2019 here completely wrong when he tried to re-weight the polls and he's been arrogantly stating a Biden win for weeks.
CHB could you maybe dial down the faux-anger slightly? It's not so very long ago that you miscalled a big Labour win.
Can we just hold for a while to see how this goes. It's not going to be a landslide, but Biden could still be President. Not wishful thinking just real odds.
This guy is really embarrassing. He got 2019 here completely wrong when he tried to re-weight the polls and he's been arrogantly stating a Biden win for weeks.
CHB could you maybe dial down the faux-anger slightly? It's not so very long ago that you miscalled a big Labour win.
Can we just hold for a while to see how this goes. It's not going to be a landslide, but Biden could still be President. Not wishful thinking just real odds.
I'm just saying, people were here saying 350+ for Biden, I saw 400 in places. I specifically didn't make a prediction because I was unsure.
And I know for a fact if people get it wrong, they won't admit it, because they're hypocrites. And it pisses me off.
I hope Biden doesn't get the blame for this because he's a nice guy. The problem in my opinion has been the people smashing up Portland and Seattle.
Of course he will. If he was a radical figure the moderates would say he was too radical, and the more progressive element will say he was not bold enough, didn't paint a big enough vision. The John Oliver types have been pretty clear they didn't think he was a great candidate or getting out the vote enough already.
I don't think having a limey slag off Trump every week helps the Democrats.
This guy is really embarrassing. He got 2019 here completely wrong when he tried to re-weight the polls and he's been arrogantly stating a Biden win for weeks.
CHB could you maybe dial down the faux-anger slightly? It's not so very long ago that you miscalled a big Labour win.
Can we just hold for a while to see how this goes. It's not going to be a landslide, but Biden could still be President. Not wishful thinking just real odds.
It's not an election night without overreacting to stuff. I feel like if I don't overreact I'm not getting into the spirit of it (plus I often don't get to do so over here, since I'm usually working at the count).
This guy is really embarrassing. He got 2019 here completely wrong when he tried to re-weight the polls and he's been arrogantly stating a Biden win for weeks.
CHB could you maybe dial down the faux-anger slightly? It's not so very long ago that you miscalled a big Labour win.
Can we just hold for a while to see how this goes. It's not going to be a landslide, but Biden could still be President. Not wishful thinking just real odds.
It's not an election night without overreacting to stuff. I feel like if I don't overreact I'm not getting into the spirit of it (plus I often don't get to do so over here, since I'm usually working at the count).
Oof. It seems that all that's left to decide is whether Biden is going to be Theresa May or Hillary Clinton. All the obituaries for right-wing populism may have been premature.
I hope Biden doesn't get the blame for this because he's a nice guy. The problem in my opinion has been the people smashing up Portland and Seattle.
Of course he will. If he was a radical figure the moderates would say he was too radical, and the more progressive element will say he was not bold enough, didn't paint a big enough vision. The John Oliver types have been pretty clear they didn't think he was a great candidate or getting out the vote enough already.
I don't think having a limey slag off Trump every week helps the Democrats.
I doubt it hurts much either, it's just self indulgent to do it as much as he does, but the point was he hasn't disguised that he is not the biggest fan of Biden as a candidate, and so like many Democrats will probably blame him if he falls short.
Oof. It seems that all that's left to decide is whether Biden is going to be Theresa May or Hillary Clinton. All the obituaries for right-wing populism may have been premature.
Yup could be, I'll be happy to say my view was premature although I only hoped Biden would win, never made a prediction.
This is going to be the worst possible result, as in a very narrow victory.
I used to think this, but have come to the conclusion close results are probably better overall. Though - I suspect like you - I'm not looking forward to the consequences in this case either on the streets or potentially in the courts.
I just feel in an election there ought to be something at stake, people's votes ought to be meaningful, and moreover a narrow win generally means both sides have tacked reasonably well to the contours of the electorate.
For a constitutional referendum I'd rather see a big win that suggests a clear consensus about the way forward. But I don't think many politicians deserve a big win. (Though I'm sure many may feel their opponent deserves a big loss...)
FPT - am I in a minority of one with this? Surely there are at least a few people hoping it'll be close purely for the entertainment value...
Secret message to mods - since I did not make an official prediction, please could you go back to an old thread and insert a post from me with a prediction which is close to what looks like happening now, so I can look like a badass predictor? Thanks in advance
I'm not 'man enough' to do it, but while things are going badly for Biden I don't think they are going as badly for him as the punters do. It looks like he'll lose Florida by more than Clinton did in 2016, but lose NC/GA by less than she did. He's doing better among whites but worse among non-whites. Given Trump only won MI/WI/PA that is a recipe for a close election, not one where Biden is a big underdog.
I hope Biden doesn't get the blame for this because he's a nice guy. The problem in my opinion has been the people smashing up Portland and Seattle.
Of course he will. If he was a radical figure the moderates would say he was too radical, and the more progressive element will say he was not bold enough, didn't paint a big enough vision. The John Oliver types have been pretty clear they didn't think he was a great candidate or getting out the vote enough already.
I don't think having a limey slag off Trump every week helps the Democrats.
Probably the worst news of the night for me. If Trump wins PA doesnt matter what Biden does in AZ. Well at least i can console myself with the thought I did say it would come down to PA.
I'm not 'man enough' to do it, but while things are going badly for Biden I don't think they are going as badly for him as the punters do. It looks like he'll lose Florida by more than Clinton did in 2016, but lose NC/GA by less than she did. He's doing better among whites but worse among non-whites. Given Trump only won MI/WI/PA that is a recipe for a close election, not one where Biden is a big underdog.
Secret message to mods - since I did not make an official prediction, please could you go back to an old thread and insert a post from me with a prediction which is close to what looks like happening now, so I can look like a badass predictor? Thanks in advance
Secret message to mods - since I did not make an official prediction, please could you go back to an old thread and insert a post from me with a prediction which is close to what looks like happening now, so I can look like a badass predictor? Thanks in advance
I have to fess up that whoever said I posted 269-269 is being extremely generous to me
I hope Biden doesn't get the blame for this because he's a nice guy. The problem in my opinion has been the people smashing up Portland and Seattle.
Of course he will. If he was a radical figure the moderates would say he was too radical, and the more progressive element will say he was not bold enough, didn't paint a big enough vision. The John Oliver types have been pretty clear they didn't think he was a great candidate or getting out the vote enough already.
I don't think having a limey slag off Trump every week helps the Democrats.
John Oliver is as American as I am.
(He naturalized in January.)
Somehow I don't think Trump supporters would see him like that.
Secret message to mods - since I did not make an official prediction, please could you go back to an old thread and insert a post from me with a prediction which is close to what looks like happening now, so I can look like a badass predictor? Thanks in advance
Just do what I’m going to do and claim you made a prediction on a thread at some stage in September and have stuck with it throughout. Too many threads to check and I get to call myself tipster of the year.
So if Trump did win PA but lost AZ , that would be 269 tied? So with ME2 Biden could still win? Its 3am so my brain is low on battery so apologies if my maths is wrong
Amazing how the radio stations are imagining it is still all to play for. We bettors on PB.com have known full well for 40 minutes or more that it's all over since a ten-second glance at the Betfair markets really tell you all you need to know. How did it happen? Firstly shy Trump supporters who I've been rabbiting on for weeks now and who the media have chosen to totally ignore. Secondly incredible determination and bloody hard work exhibited by the President throughout the election campaign, in sharp contrast to the meagre effort put in by his opponent.
Secret message to mods - since I did not make an official prediction, please could you go back to an old thread and insert a post from me with a prediction which is close to what looks like happening now, so I can look like a badass predictor? Thanks in advance
Just do what I’m going to do and claim you made a prediction on a thread at some stage in September and have stuck with it throughout. Too many threads to check and I get to call myself tipster of the year.
Why do you think I've spammed 57 thousands posts? For fun? Are you mad? It's Trumpesque throwing everything at the wall so no one can figure me out.
Amazing how the radio stations are imagining it is still all to play for. We bettors on PB.com have known full well for 40 minutes or more that it's all over since a ten-second glance at the Betfair markets really tell you all you need to know. How did it happen? Firstly shy Trump supporters who I've been rabbiting on for weeks now and who the media have chosen to totally ignore. Secondly incredible determination and bloody hard work exhibited by the President throughout the election campaign, in sharp contrast to the meagre effort put in by his opponent.
The surprise has been that the shy Trump supporters have turned out to be Hispanics, not white working class voters.
Comments
CNN just reporting 'impressive' leads in places which might mean absolutely nothing.
This guy is really embarrassing. He got 2019 here completely wrong when he tried to re-weight the polls and he's been arrogantly stating a Biden win for weeks.
If they're not calling FL now, they won't be calling rust belt until just about every vote has been counted.
https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1323820689598615553?s=21
But absentee ballots in Franklin, the largest and most Democratic county, have yet to be counted.
Can we just hold for a while to see how this goes. It's not going to be a landslide, but Biden could still be President. Not wishful thinking just real odds.
(Source with in-depth data analysis by ABC)
And I know for a fact if people get it wrong, they won't admit it, because they're hypocrites. And it pisses me off.
(Source with in-depth data analysis by ABC)
NC just flipped red, and it's trending redder.
I still think Biden's going to do this. Probably. Maybe.
That is a worry for the Dems.
But, I think if he loses Penn he loses all of them and Trump wins 293 to 244.
(He naturalized in January.)
I have to fess up that whoever said I posted 269-269 is being extremely generous to me
Can he do it?
Yes? Is it likely?
Probably not. Biden is 65% likely to take AZ based on these numbers.
More of a worry for Trump is Ohio.
While Trump's lead has widened to five points, almost nothing that remains is good for him.
Really?
Amazing how the radio stations are imagining it is still all to play for. We bettors on PB.com have known full well for 40 minutes or more that it's all over since a ten-second glance at the Betfair markets really tell you all you need to know.
How did it happen? Firstly shy Trump supporters who I've been rabbiting on for weeks now and who the media have chosen to totally ignore. Secondly incredible determination and bloody hard work exhibited by the President throughout the election campaign, in sharp contrast to the meagre effort put in by his opponent.
Jesus
Remember that they are counting on the day votes first.
Biden: 35,047,789 votes (47.7%)
Trump: 37,216,578 votes (50.7%)